CHAPTER 2: POPULATION
Image Courtesy of NASA
APHUG | BHS | Ms. Justice
Key Question 2.2
Why Do Populations Rise and Fall in
Particular Places?
© 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Population: Rise and Fall



Thomas Malthus: An Essay on the
Principles of Population (1798)
Population growing faster than food supply;
that food grows linearly, population grows
exponentially
Malthus’s predictions did not come true (why?)
4 Level Analysis
(Figure 2.7, p. 46-47)
Population Growth: World, Regional, National Scales

Births – Deaths = Natural Increase
 Sometimes
abbreviated RNI = Rate of Natural Increase
 Does not factor immigration (in-migration) or emigration (outmigration) into
the equation
© 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 Billion: How Did We Get So Big So Fast?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcSX4ytEfcE
2:33
Regional and National

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
Number of births in a year per 1000

Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Number of deaths in a year per 1000

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Average number of children born to a woman of
childbearing age
© 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
30 Second Prediction
In your notes, write responses to the following:
What was the leading cause of death
in the USA in 1900?
What was the leading cause of death
in the USA in 2010?
How We Die: USA 1900 & 2010
Field Note: Bordeaux, France
“My mind was on wine. I was in Bordeaux,
France, walking down the street to the
Bordeaux Wines Museum (Musée des Vins de
Bordeaux) with a friend from the city. Having
just flown from Dakar, Senegal, after spending
several weeks in Subsaharan Africa, I found my
current surroundings strikingly different.
Observing the buildings and the people
around me, I noticed that after having been
among so many young children in Subsaharan
Africa, the majority of the inhabitants I
encountered in Bordeaux were adults. I turned
to my friend and asked, “Where are all the
children?” He looked around, pointed, and
replied, “There goes one now!” In Bordeaux, in
Paris, in all of France and the rest of Europe,
there are fewer children and populations are
aging.
Concept Caching:
Bordeaux, France
© Harm de Blij
Doubling
time:
Data from: US Census Bureau
1650-1820
Doubled in 170 years
1820-1930
Doubled in 110
years
19301975
Doubled
in 45
years
19752011
Increas
e of 3
billion
in 36
years
20122020
Est. to
reach 8
billion by
2027
The Science of Overpopulation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dD-yN2G5BY0
10:18
The Demographic Transition Model


Warren Thompson, an American geographer, developed this model in
1929 in NYC in the midst of the stock market crash and onset of the
Depression.
The Demographic Transition model explains the transformation of
countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and
death rates using a process of four stages. [The evolution of FERTILITY
and MORTALITY over time]
© 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
Demographic Transition


Factors limiting population growth:
Famine, epidemics, plagues, wars
Factors enhancing population growth:
Agricultural advances, Industrial Revolution, sanitation, vaccinations
© 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
200 Countries, 200 Years
© 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.
4:47
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1: “Pre-Industrial”
High birth rates and high death rates
Population growth very slow
Agrarian society/hunters & gatherers
High rates of communicable diseases
Pop. increases in good growing years;
declines in bad years (famine, diseases)
No country or world region still in Stage One
The Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2: “Early Industrial”
High birth rates but death rates
decline
RNIs increase sharply (pop.
explosion); growth rate increases
throughout Stage Two
Growth not from increase in
births, but from decline in deaths
MDCs = starts early 1800s
LDCs = starts after 1950s
The Demographic Transition Model
TRANSITION TO STAGE TWO IN CLASSIC DTM
Known as the Epidemiologic Transition
Agricultural technology

Improvements in food supply: higher yields as agricultural practices

improved in “Second Agricultural Revolution” (18th century)

In Europe, food quality improved as new foods introduced from Americas
Medical technology

Better medical understanding (causes of diseases; how they spread)
Public sanitation technologies

Improved water supply (safe drinking water)

Better sewage treatment, food handling, and general personal hygiene

Improvements in public health especially reduced childhood mortality
The Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3: “Later Industrial”
Birth rates decline sharply
Death rates decline a bit more
Growth still occurs, but at a
reduced and declining rate
MDCs = starts in late 1800s
LDCs = starts after 1980s*
* Or haven’t started yet
The Demographic Transition Model
TRANSITION TO STAGE THREE IN CLASSIC DTM
Known as the Fertility Transition
Societies become more urban, less rural

Declining childhood death in rural areas (fewer kids needed)

Increasing urbanization changes traditional values about having children

City living raises cost of having dependents
Women more influential in childbearing decisions

Increasing female literacy changes value placed on motherhood as sole measure of women’s
status

Women enter work force: life extends beyond family, changes attitude toward childbearing
Improved contraceptive technology, availability of birth control

But contraceptives not widely avail in 19th century; contributed little to

fertility decline in Europe … Fertility decline relates more to change in

values than to availability of any specific technology
The Demographic Transition Model
Stage 4: “Post-Industrial”
Birth rates and death rates both low
Population growth very low or zero
MDCs = starts after 1970s
LDCs = hasn’t started yet
Stage 5 (?): Hypothesized (not in Classic DTM)
Much of Europe now or soon in population decline
as birth rates drop far below replacement level
The Demographic Transition Model
Is there a fifth stage that can be added?
The Demographic Transition Model
© 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.