ANNEXURE I
CHART OF U.S. DETERRENT STRATEGIES OF THE COLD WAR
U.S. Strategy ltple- Proclaited
Description
~1
F:easons for Change
Conents
tented Adtinistration
City busting
1947
1948
Truten
Deterrence of attack
on U.S. vital interests rests on drastic threat of atotic
struction. Supported by plans to use
SAC botbers to destroy largest So;,·iet
urban-industrial
centres.
Strategy developed in
itprovised fashion.
"ajor advantag~ was it
played to U.S. strength and Soviet weakness. Offered relati~·ely cheap way (pc.Jitically and econotcally) to taintain peace
and freedot of Western
Europe.
Until 1947, U.S.
tilitary planning
was ba~·ed on botbs
and botbers that did
not exist. Subsequently, what had been
itplicit assutption
of sote theorists
becate explicit
principle of ailitary planning.
Extended
deterrence
1947
1948 (in
Western
Europe)
Use of nuclear power Developed tc protect
by U.S. to pr6tect Western Europe against
non-nuclear allies. Sov1et Union which was
believed to possess
overwhelting conventional superiority.
So·viet conv!!ntional
superiority in
Europe greatly exaggerated after World
War 11.7,000 U.S.
tactical nuclear
warheads eventually
stationed in Western
Europe.
1.
This chart distinguishes between the declaratory (i.e. publicly articulated) deterrent policies
~f war
plans). Frequently, a deterrent strategy was iapleaented by an adeinistration before it was
announced publicly. Also, just because a new strategy ~as publicly proclaited did not necessarily aean that it was actually adopted. "oreover the adoption of a new strategy did not
necessarily aean that the previous one was now obsolete.
of the United Stated and its action policies (i.e. those actually reflected on the level
Source: Honore, "· Catudal, Nuclear Deterrence: Does it i\eter. I, (New Yorl: Mansell Publishing
Ltd., 1985, pp.14-19.
370
U.S. Strategy Ilple- Procl aited
tented Adtinistration
Hassive retaliation
19~·3
19~4
Deterrence of difEisenhoweri ferent forts of
Dulles
possible aggressiem to be achie·ved
by threat to launch all-out nuclear
retaliation.
Graduated
deterrence
Flexible
response
early
19b0s
!.lese r i ption
19b7
(by NATO)
Johnson/
HcNatilra
Reasons for Change
Fiscal considerations
played aajor role in
adoptic•n. U.S. ex~·E•rience in Korean war
also itportant.
Louents
U.S. n~ possessed
large stoclpile of
atoaic botbs. Credibility problea because efficacy of ~assive, undifferentiated nuclear threat
not believable at
least in influencing
resol t: i.ion of Iii nor
issues.
local aggression
to be deterred by
taking it sufficientl y cost] y to
initiator so as not
to be worthwhile.
Aii to_develop a
fort of litited nuclear war that would deter future
torean size oftensives.
Hotly debated in 1950s: Rested on U.S. nubut newer becaae offi- clear superiority,
especially in tacticia! U.S. doctrine.
Proponents hoped to
cal nucleiir weapons.
develop fort of litit- Punishter.t should fit
ed nuclear war strate- criae. Etphasis on
gy to deter future
tilitary rather than
Korean size offensi- civilian targets.
Doctrine suffered
ves.
because distinction
b£>tween liai ted and
general nuclear war
not so clear cut.
Aggression to be
deterred by capability to respond
at all levels,
including possible
use of nuclear
wei!pons.
Gave U.S. tore options in conflict. Reduced reliance on nuclear weapons.
Re;ted on substantia}
increse in conventior.al forces. Suffered
in Furope bee ause necessary tili tilry
buildup never took
plaC£>,
U.S. Strategy ltple- Procl aited
tented Adtinistration
[lescription
Reasons tor Change
Cotlients
Flexible tar- early
geting (or
1970s
"selective
options •)
1974
Nixon/SchJesin9er
[leterreoce to be
achieved b7· developing wider range
of strategic options against •iiitary targets.
Gave U.S. tore options. Provided way in
which U.S. surplus
of warheads could be
put to •good" use.
Represents revival of
counterforce strategy. Assutes nuclear
war can be kept liaited.
Countervailing
late
1970s
1980
Carteri
Brown
Deterrence of any
scale of nU<lear
attack to be achieved by eaphasizing liaited strike
options against
political and econotic targets
rather than e~clusively against
tilitary targets.
Hoped -to convince
Soviets that no use
of nuclear weapons
of any scale and at
any stage of confJict could lead to
victory. New policy
seen as tore "toral"
(people not to be
directly targeted).
Nuclear war-fighting
capability streogthened. First tite arted
forces required to be
able to fight prolonged nuclear war. Decapitation strategy
etphasi: zed.
Intrawar
deterrence
1970s
Deterrence to take rreveloped in context
place after outof etphasis on nubreak of nuclear
clear war-fighting.
war. Through "escalation dotinance" U.S. would
seek to taintain
aargin of superiority at each rung
of esciilation
ladder.
Presupposes ability
to negotiate after
litited nuclear exchange in order to
control further escalation, preserving
non-tilitary targets.
Soviets do not officialy subscribe to
it.
U.S. Strattogy Japle- Proclaited
eented Ad&inistration
Prevailing
counterforce
19B1
Nuclear
Utilization
target
selection
1980s
R!?asons for Change
1981
USSR to be deterred
Reagan/
by U.S. capability
Weinberger to fight and 'prevail' in protracted
nuclear war.
(NUTS)
City avoidance (predicated on
'daaage liaitation' ·or
'counterforce' strateg·y)
Description
19b2
Kennedy/
HcNatara
Developed to counter
alleged Soviet belief
in their ability to win
nuclear war. Consistent
with quest of Reagan
Adiinistration for nuclear superiority.
U.S. nuclear warfighting 5trategy
enhanced. First tiie
are~d forC£'S required to be able to
'prevail• in protracted nacle~r war.
Based on U.S. obtaining and taintaining
nuclear superiority.
Develo~aent of survivable coteand and
rontrol systet given
heavy eiphasis.
Unofficial naie gi- Enhanced nuclear warven to various tar- fighting capability.
geting strategies
developed in conte~t of etphasis on
deterrenc e t~rough
develop1ent of nuclear war-fighting
capabi 1ity.
Assutes that nuclear
weapons can be used
in certain circutstances without unleashing catastropbic series of consequences.
Ad-versary to be deterred by threatened destruction of
his tilitary forces,
not civilian population.
Based on U.S. nuclear superiority.
For first tite portion of U.S. nucleir
force to be held in
reserve. Envisaged
iassive targeting
of Soviet strategic
forces and possibi!itt that U.S. tight
launch first.
Save U.S. ie<re options
in conflict, e.g.,U.S.
could respond to
Soviet nuclear attack
in Europe without necessarily initiatin9 '
1utual exchange of
attacls against cities.
Said to provide tore
credible threat because
USSR seen as placing
higher value on its •ilitary forces.
._...
·..-·-'77
._... /
U.S. Strategy Iaple- Proclaioed
tented Ad~inist­
ration
Assured
destruction
iforaerly
'assured
retaliation")
Hutual
ilssured
des.truLtlun
(HAD)
Sufficiency
Description
Reasons for Change
Couents
Deterrence rests on
retaining capability to inflict "unacceptable datage•
· on adversary even
after absorbing
surprise nuclear
attack.
Growing U.S. tissile
superiority. Allowed
U.S."planners toestablish quantitative
criteria for deteraining size, characteristics and e1fectiveness of U.S.nuclear forces. Never
incorporated by HcNaaara and successors as action
policy.
Second-strike Lapability that could devastate USSR now officially part of deterrence
policy. Unacceptable
datage defined in
various ways, e.g. 2030% of Soviet population and 50-751 of
industrial capaLity.
tid-1960s
Johnson/
HcNaeara
Deterrence now
rests on ability
of both sides to
destroy each other
even after they
have been attac~2d
first.
Saved 1oney because
U.S. did not have to
strive for nuclear
superiority. Provided incentive for
seeking ar1s liiitations agreeaents.
Accepted Soviet parity
with U.S. Populations
held hostage while
planners continued tc
develop other targeting options. Guestionable whether USSR
ever subscribed to.
i 969
Deterrence to be
achieved by ~.S.
strategic power
which would not be
allowed to becote
infefior to that
of Soviet Union.
Nixon adiinistration
inherited tuch Jarger nuclear force
than needed to destroy USSR and China.
Policy provided rationale for not having constantly to
increase nuclear
power. Created basis
for autual restraint.
Rough strategic parity
of U.S.-USSR strategic
forces now etphasized.
Various targeting strategies pursued. Concept suffered greatly
fro1 its aabiguity.
Deterrence to be
achieved by taintaining only a
tinitua level of
nuclear force
which would inflict 'unacceptable datage.•
Never
19b4
lennedy/
KcNaaara
lid19b0s
1969
Nixon/
tissinger
Finite
deterrence
{also known
as 'tinitut
deterrence"
:::;/4
Iapletented.
Rejects all but a counter-city targeting
strategy. Populations
held hostage. Problea
that sudden breakthrough in technology could
jeopardize deterrent~
ANNEXURE I I
CHRONOLOGY OF THE VIETNAM WARt
1858 September.
1859 Februar·y.
French seize Danang.
French occupy Saigon region.
1873 November 19.
Tonkin Delta.
French attack Hanoi and
take
1874 Narch 15.
French sovereignty over Cochin
cognized in Treaty of Saigon.
1883 August 25.
torates.
1890 Nay 19.
Annam and Tonkin
become
much
China
French
Ho Chi Minh born.
1930 February 3.
Ho Chi Minh merges three groups
Vietnam Communist Party.
September 12 to mid-1931.
14.
thirty years'
Nay 10.
to
Youth
form
Nghe Tinh Soviet Movl:?ment.
1940 June.
France capitulates to Germany, agrees
laborate with Japan.
Februa~y
re-
protec-
1925 June.
Ho Chi ~inh creates Vietnam Revolutionary
Association in Canton.
1941
of
Ho Chi Minh returns
exile.
to
to
Vietnam
col-
after
Viet Minh front created.
*Source: Gabriel Kolka, Vietnam: Anatomy of War,
(London: Allen & Unwin, 1985), pp.607-612.
375
1940-1975,
1945 1'1arch
Japanese disarm French and end
9.
French
rule
formally.
/'1arch-1'1ay.
Famine in Tonkin reaches Migh point.
August 15.
Japan sur-render-s.
August 17.
Demonstration in Hanoi, spreads throughout
country over following days and Viet Minh takes power.
Ho Chi Minh dec 1 ares Vietnam indeJpendent
founds Democratic Republic of Vietnam.
September 2.
and
September.
British occupy Cochin China and French
troops begin to return.
Chinese occupy Vietnam north
of sixteenth parallel.
28.
Franco-Chinese accord allows
take northern half of Vietnam.
1946 February
/'1arch
as a
Fr-ench
6.
Franco-Vietnamese agreement recognizing
free state withiri the French Union.
to
DRV
After br·eakdown of March 6
accord and
failure
of negotiations.
French bombard Haiphong,
begin restoration of their authority.
November
December
France,
22.
19.
Ho Chi Minh calls
and war begins.
for
resistance
5.
French create "State of Vietnam" w:i.th
emperor Bao Dai as chief of state.
1948 June
to
former
1950 Februar-y-· 7.
United States gives de jure recognition to
Bao Dai's state.
1'1ay B.
tary
1951
United StateS begins direct economic and
aid grants to French in Indochina.
United States
assistance to Bao Dai.
September
7.
dir~ct
economic
Communists begin four-month offensive and
most of region north of Hanoi.
November 19.
take
begins
mili-
376
ends
Battle of Dien Bien Phu, begun March 13,
1954 Nay 7.
in French defeat.
Nay 8-..luly 21.
July 7.
Ngo Dinh Diem appointed premier by Bao Dai.
1955 J.anu.ary 1.
government.
August
leaves.
Geneva Conference on Indochina.
16.
United States begins dire,ct aid to
Last French high commissioner
in
Diem's
Vietnam
October 23-26. Diem deposes Baa Dai and proclaims
"Republic of Vietnam".
the
1956 .January 11. RVN issues Ordinance 6 permitting arrest
and detention of anyone deemed dangerous to security.
1959 Janu.ary.
Communist Party Central
Committee passes
Resolution 15 sanctioning greater reliance on military
activity.
Nay 6.
Diem's Law 10/59 creating special tribunals for
prison and executionm of those endangering security.
1960 December 20.
National
Vietnam established.
Liberation
Front
b~cember
31. 900 U.S. military personnel
compared with 327 in May.
of
in
South
Vietnam
President Kennedy declares United States
Nay 5.
- considering use of American forces in South Vietnam.
196~
November 22. United States decides to expand
aid and advisers to RVN.
December 31.
is
military
U.S. military personnel reaches 3,200.
as
1962 February
B.
U.S.
advisory group reorganized
"Military Assistance Command, Vietnam," under General
Paul D. Harkins.
377
~pril.
Strategic-hamlet program initiated.
December 31.
U.S. military personnel reaches 11,300.
1963 May 8.
Buddhist riots begin
in Hue,
spr-ead,
continue sporadically the remainder of summer.
E.
Frederick
Henry Cabot Lodge replaces
August 12.
Nolting as U.S. ambassador to Saigon.
Martial law proclaimed
August 21.
1,400 Buddhists arrested.
and
throughout
August 24.
United States encourages RVN
replace Diem.
RVN.
generals
to
September 2.
Semiofficial Saigon paper charges United
States with having planned abortive August 28 coup.
October 17.
United
Diem's elite guard.
November 1.
States
suspends
assistance
to
Military coup kills Diem and his brother.
November 9.
United States resumes commodity import aid
suspended in August as gesture of disapproval of Diem.
November 22.
President Kennedy assassinated.
December 31.
U.S. military personnel reaches 16,300.
1964 January 30.
Military coup led by Major General
Khanh replaces Minh government.
June 20.
MACV.
General William C. Westmoreland
takes
Nguyen
over
July 2. Maxwell D. Taylor replaces Lodge as ambassador.
RVNAF raids on DRV coastal islands.
July 30-31.
AugustNavy.
2-4.
August 4.
Gulf of Tonkin incidents
involving
U.s.·
First U.S. air strikes against DRV targets.
August 7. Congress approves Gulf of Tonkin Resolution
sanctioning use of U.S. armed forces in Southeast Asia.
378
General Khanh ousts
August 16.
installs new constitution.
rivals
from
junta,
August 27.
New constitution withdrawn.
Khanh pushed
aside until September, when successive political crises
follow throughout the month.
·October 26-November 1.
Tran Van Huang.
31.
1965 January 27.
government.
emerges
under
Khanh and allies purge junta partially.
December 20.
December
Vietnam.
New government
23,300 U.S. military personnel in
Huang ousted, General Khanh
February 7.
NLF attacks Pleiku base.
DRV next day.
South
takes
U.S. planes bomb
February 1 B.
Military units oust General
Khanh
bloodless coup. Phan Huy Quat becomes new premier.
February 2B. United States announces it will
bombing of DRV whenever it deems it essential.
June 12.
Premier Quat returns power to military.
regime led by Nguyen Cao Ky emerges on June 24.
Henry Cabot Lodge to replace Taylor as
December 31.
1966
Januar~
31.
in
sustain
June B.
State Department says U.S. troops will now
into combat routinely.
July B.
sador.
over
go
New
ambas-
U.S. military personnel numbers 184,300.
U.S. air attacks against DRV resumed.
February 6-B. Johnson meets Ky and Thieu in Honolulu;
they issue proclamation of resolve to continue war.
March 10-16. Buddhist and student protests in Hue
Danang begin, continuing intermittently for weeks
spreading.
~pril
12.
B-525 bomb DRV. for the first time.
379
and
and
June 16.
tests.
Saigon sends troops to Hue to put down
December 31.
pro-
U.S. military personnel reaches 385,300.
1967 February 23r24. Operation Junction City, the biggest
land offensive of the war, begins along Cmbodian bo.rder.
April 12.
Saigon.
Ellsworth Bunker becomes new ambassador
to
May 11. Nguyen Ca Ky declares his candidacy for presidency in September 3 elections.
May 19.
dency.
Nguyen Van Thieu declares candidacy for presi-
June 30.
Ruling Armed Forces Council agrees to
Thieu for presidency and Ky for vice-presidency.
December 31.
U.S. military personnel rises t() 485,300.
1968 January 30-31.
Tet offensive begins.
March 31. Johnson withdraws from
calls for negotiations.
May 31.
run
presidential
race,
Paris Peace Conference begins.
July 2. General Creighton W. Abrams replaces Westmoreland as head of MACY.
November 1.
United States halts bombing of DRV.
1969 January 31.
542,400 U.S. military personnel in
Vietnam, the wartime peak.
June 8.
25,000.
South
Nixon announces first U.S. troop withdrawal of
June 10.
Provisional Revolutionary
formed by NLF and others.
July 25.
Nixon declares "Nixon
future American interventions.
380
Government
Doctrine"
(PRG)
regarding
September 3.
Ho Chi Minh dies.
October 15. Massive antiwar demonstrators
United States.
throughout
November 15.
About 250,000 in Washington protest war.
December 31.
at 474,000.
U.S. military personnel' in South
1970 11arch
bodia.
~pril
27-28.
11ay
4.
Jackson
pol ice.
in
Cam-
U.S. troops enter Cambodia for first time.
30.
11ay 3.
ARVN attacks Communist forces
Vietnam
United States resumes bombing of DRV.
Six students at Kent State University
State College killed by National
Guard
and
and
9.
Hundreds of university ·antiwar
protests
throughout the United States, including over 75,000 in
Washington.
11ay
December
Vietnam.
31.
335,800 U.S. personnel remain
in
South
1971 February B.
ARVN attacks southern Laos to disrupt Ho
Chi Minh Trail,
in Lam Son 719 Campaign.
Retreat
begins in late February after heavy losses, ending
in
l'ate March.
Rpril 24.
About half a million persons
Washington.
June 13.
Times.
July 15.
prote~st
Pentagon Papers begin to appear in New
in
York
Kissinger trip to China announced.
October 3.
Thieu "reelected" as head of
any rivals in race.
December
Vietnam.
war
1.
RVN
184,000 U.S. personnel remain
381
without
in
South
1972 January 25.
Nixon announces Kissinger has met with DRV
representatives secretary ~hirteen times.
Nixon arrives in China for visit.
February 21.
M~RCH
PAVN begins offensive along DMZ.
30.
Nixon authorizes bombing 9f
15.
~pril
Hanoi-Haiphong
area.
~pril
Kissinger visits Moscow to arrange summit.
20.
May B.
May 20.
Nixon announces mining of all
~RV
ports.
Nixon meets Brezhnev in Moscow.
PRG makes new peace proposal
September 11.
Thieu's continuation in power.
accepting
DRV presents draft of p.eace agreement.
October B.
October 20.
Nixon informs Pham Van Dong that the peace
treaty is essentially complete.
October 23.
negotiations.
November 20.
United
States asks
for
resumption
of
Kissinger and Le Due Tho resume talks.
December 18.
United States begins intensive bombing of
Hanoi-Haiphong region.
December 30.
Uni_ted States halts bombing and north of
twentieth parallel and announces resumption of negotiations.
1973 January 23.
Kissinger and Le Due_Tho initial
agreement, which is signed four days later.
March 29.
Last U.S.
April 30.
mounts.
Key Nixon aides resign as ·watergate
June 24.
Saigon.
Graham
peace
troops depart from South Vietnam.
Martin becomes
382
new
scandal
ambassador
to
June
ban
total
House passes compromise bill imposing
on U.S. bombing in all of Indochina after August
29.
15.
House Judiciary Committee
9.
hearings against Nixon.
1974 May
~ugust
begins
House cuts military aid to
6.
impeachment
RVN
to
5,700
million.
~ugust
Nixon resigns.
9.
December
18.
Politburo begins to plan
spring
often-
sive.
1975 January
6.
Phuoc Long Province
falls
to
PAVN/PLAF
attack.
March
8-10.
PAVN begins pt-obing attacks in MR
cuts roads in MR I I .
March 10.
and
I
PAVN attacks Ban Me Thuot, which falls
next
day.
March 11.
Thieu decides on major strategic ~~ithdrawals
in MR I and I I to save coastal cities and build strategic reserve.
March
12.
Thieu orders Airborne Division in MR
I
to
Saigon.
Thieu orders abandonment of most of
Highlands, which leads to chaos.
Narc_h 14.
March
25.
Hue falls. Politburo decides
to
Central
end
war
quickly.
March
29.
Danang abandoned
enters it the next day.
amid
pandemonium;
April 4.
Prime Minister Tran Thien Khiem resigns,
Thieu changes canbinet.
April 21.
Saigon surrounded by thirteen
Thieu resigns 'in favour of Tran Van Huong.
383
PAVN
and
divisions.
f::lpril
25.
Thieu leaves South Vietnam.
Duong Van Minh takes office of presidency as
Communist army presses toward Saigon.
Apr ~-1 27.
f::lpril 30.
Last Americans leave during the early
ing as Communist army begins entering city.
surrenders unconditionally.
384
morn'Minh