UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
2010-10-22
The legacy of Mao Zedong on Deng Xiaoping
Introduction
“The Central Committee had put forward the fundamental guiding principle of shifting the
focus of all Party work to four modernizations… a great and profound revolution… our
new Long March… to change the backward condition of our country and turn it into a
modern and powerful socialist state” (Marti 2002, 1).
This announcement, made by the then paramount leader Deng Xiaoping at the Third Plenum
of the 11th Central Committee, marked a fundamental shift in China‟s past three decades of
economic failure, of “backward conditions”, under the rule of Mao Zedong. Market economy
was established and set the country on one of the most remarkable paths of modernisation in
world history (Meisner 1999, 449). However, this astonishing economic lift has been labelled
“capitalism with social characteristics” – what does this actually imply? Did the “old” Maoist
institutions in fact have a crucial impact on China‟s economic development post-1978?
There is an ongoing debate between structures and actors in social science on human
behaviour, in political science foremost between historical institutionalist- (HI) and rational
choice (RC) scholars. The debate was intensified with the post-WWII democratic institutions
in the West, considered as stable and adaptive, showing malfunctions and operational crisis in
the end of the 1970s (Sanders 2006, 40-41).
One major dilemma with the HI-approach inability to account for sudden,
drastic change of institutions or structures, as was the case with the BWS, only their slow
evolution or their status quo. The RC-framework, on the other hand, is incapable of
explaining cases where actor‟s autonomy and choices are significantly limited (Sanders
2006?).
1
UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
2010-10-22
Research objective and purpose of study
To bridge this ontological debate I will bring ideas of path dependence together with the
concept of critical junctures and examine the actors vs. structures process during one
particular reform period. This, in order to investigate why and how institutions can undergo a
drastic change and switch path, as seemingly is the case with China, with the introduction of
capitalism in 1978. Nevertheless, the label “capitalism with social characteristics” should
indicate that significant traces of the Maoist rule were still left after the comprehensive reform
by Deng Xiaoping. For that reason, my thesis project also aims at studying the particular
impact of the Maoist legacy on the reform.
In his work “State-directed development: Political power and industrialization in the global
periphery” (2004) Atul Kohli also uses concepts of path dependence and critical junctures to
analyse how “big bangs”, during the colonial period of four large developing countries, have
shaped specific patterns of state authority and, in a second step, explaining why and how the
one state had become more or less effective in pursuing high level of industrialization.
Kohli chose another research objective than the one of my thesis project.
However, my purpose will be similar to his, i.e. to trace the institutional legacy of past
historical junctures on a country‟s path to modernisation. Kohli studied the traces of the
colonial heritage, whereas I will take this study a step further to examine the traces of the
communist legacy on China‟s development.
In what sense could such a study contribute to the political science research?
Well, I believe that it could seek clarification of the particular role of, on the one hand,
political actors, on the other hand, institutions in the path of modernisation of developing
countries and where one possibly could draw the line between them. Perhaps, this thesis
project could also add to our knowledge of the population communist states – post-communist
states and the possibilities, but also obstacles, they face to achieve development.
Research question
The particular question at issue of this essay will thus be:
2
UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
2010-10-22
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
To what extent were the key political actors constrained by the “old” Maoist institutions
during the implementation of the market reform program after 1978?
Theoretical framework: Path dependence and critical junctures
Ideas about path dependence and “increasing returns”
“Path dependence” is a term increasingly used in social science to explain political processes.
Lipset and Rokkan (1967) applied the concept to investigate the national party systems in
Europe and over two decades later Collier and Collier (1991) carried out comprehensive
studies of labour incorporation in Latin America.
Path dependence has both a broad and a narrow concept. The broad version is to
say, what happened at an earlier point in history influences the possible outcomes of episodes
occuring later in time, or simply, “history matters” (Pierson 2000, 252). One possible narrow
description is the one from Margaret Levi (1997, 28; view Pierson 2000, 252):
“Path dependence has to mean, if it is to mean anything, that once a country or region has
started down a track, the costs of reversal are very high. There will be other choice points,
but the entrenchments of certain institutional obstruct an easy reversal of the initial
choice.”
Pierson (2000, 252) equates the narrow concept of path dependence with the process of
“increasing returns” when explaining institutional development, implying that a move along
one path increases the probability of further steps on the same path with each new move. The
reason for this is that, over time, the relative costs of switching course of action rise.
Moreover, increasing returns can be related to positive feedback processes that are selfreinforcing (Pierson 2000, 252). This notion supports some basic arguments: 1) Particular
patterns of timing and sequences may have a crucial impact on the outcome, that is to say not
only what, but also when it happens. Events taking place “too late” may not have an effect,
which they otherwise would have had, if the timing was right. For this reason, 2) relatively
“small” and contingent incidents could bring large consequences. 3) At the starting point of
an increasing returns process a wide range of outcomes may be possible, a multiple equilibria.
3
UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
2010-10-22
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
4) Once a particular course of action is introduced, caused by a punctuation of critical
moments or junctures, they may be as good as impossible to reverse (Collier & Collier 1991;
Ikenberry 1994; Krasner 1989, view Pierson 2000, 251). 5) Inertia implies that once an
increasing returns process is established, positive feedback might lead to a single equilibrium
that, in turn, will be resistant to change (Pierson 2000, 263).
Concept of critical junctures
“Two roads diverged in a wood, and I –
I took the one less travelled by,
And that has made all the difference”1
Studies of crucial choices and their legacies of major turning points in political and social life
and how they establish specific courses of change and, further, close off other alternative
paths, have captivated scholars since many decades (Collier and Collier 1991, 27).
Lipset and Rokkan (1967, 37ff) developed the concept of “critical junctures” in their study of
national party systems in Europe. They outlined a model of three crucial junctures of
universal suffrage, 1) the Reformation and Counter-Reformation in the 16th-17th centuries, 2)
the National Revolution in 1789 and 3) the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century, and
analysed the differences in the configuration of those party systems (Lipset and Rokkan 1967,
47). Moreover, Collier and Collier (1991, 28-29) also used the framework to study the
evolution of 20th century politics in Latin America, with particular emphasis on a period of
fundamental transformation in the relationship between the state and the labour movements.
According to them a critical juncture could be defined as:
“a period of significant change, which typically occurs in distinct ways in different countries
(or in other units of analysis) and which is hypothesized to produce distinct legacies”
(Collier and Collier 1991, 29).
1
“The Road Not Taken”, by Robert Frost
4
UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
2010-10-22
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
The available choices in moments of critical junctures and the key actors‟ final decisions are
generally embedded in earlier events. The degree to which these prior events control the
options of actors during critical junctures can differ, ranging from those featured by a high
degree of individual discretion to choices more deeply rooted in prior incidents (Collier and
Collier 1991, 27).
Collier and Collier (1991, 31) consider some major challenge when conducting comparativehistorical research and one of them is to establish analytic equivalence with the prerequisite
that a critical juncture occurs in different ways in different cases. How to apply the same
concept on a number of cases, but create differences great enough to constitute interesting
“variance”, at the same time?
Given that a critical juncture is a direct response to an external shock or crisis,
e.g. the Great Depression in the 1930s, the debt crisis in the 1980s or an international wave of
social protest, one solution to the issue of analytic equivalence would be that the critical
juncture takes place roughly simultaneously across a number of cases. It is therefore easier to
identify them (Collier and Collier 1991, 31).
Collier and Collier (1991, 31) further outline a number of building blocks of the critical
juncture framework. First, the antecedent conditions form a “base line” against which the
critical juncture and the legacy are measured. In fact, important features or direct causal links
may already be represented in the antecedent system, implying that the actual critical juncture
does not produce the legacy. The second building block is the crisis or cleavage that appears
from the “base line” and triggers the critical juncture. Third, the legacy consists of three
elements: a) mechanisms of production, causing b) mechanisms of reproduction that, in turn,
lead to c) the stability of the core features of the legacy. Finally, we reach the end or outcome
of the legacy (Collier and Collier 1991, 30-31).
Bringing the concepts together
Mahoney (2001) develops Collier and Collier‟s ideas of critical junctures and their legacies,
brings it together with path dependence and applies on his study of regime change in Central
America in the 19th and 20th centuries. I intend to use his analytical structure in my thesis
5
UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
2010-10-22
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
project, in order to investigate the legacy of Maoist structures on the economic reform process
in China post-1978 and, hopefully, seek clarification of the particular influence of actors, on
the one hand, and long-lived institutions, on the other hand, on the economic development of
a country. Below, I outline the steps to be analysed.
Antecedent conditions
The point of departure is the antecedent conditions, introduced by Collier and Collier in the
previous section, that define an initial set of options accessible to actors at a key choice point
(Mahoney 2001 112, 119). When a critical juncture takes place, contingent factors might
cause the selection a given institutional arrangement (Mahoney 2001, 114).
Critical juncture
Critical junctures captures two key elements: 1) they are choice points when a particular
option is taken from at least two alternatives, 2) once an alternative is chosen it gets
increasingly difficult to return to the initial point (Mahoney 2001, 113).
Institutional reproduction
A critical juncture launches a collection of more deterministic causal processes that
reproduces the new institution without repeating the primary causes. These events might
cause lock-in processes of a particular institution and, thus, be very difficult to alter.
Furthermore, they are characterized by self-reinforcement and positive feedback processes
(Mahoney 2001, 114). The institutional reproduction could be equated with Pierson‟s concept
of “increasing returns”.
Reactive sequences
One element “missing” within the critical juncture framework of Collier and Collier is the
reactive sequences, which is developed by Mahoney (2001, 114-115). Reactive sequences are
characterized by an “inherent logic of events”, which are sequential and causally related. One
event triggers another through predictable reaction and counter-reaction dynamics (Abbott
1992, 445; view Mahoney 2001, 115). Put it differently, the original forces of the reactive
sequences are usually actors who gained from the old institutions, which seek to challenge the
6
UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
2010-10-22
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
new ones. Those actors who instead gain from the new structures will counter-react to the
perceived actor resistance, which pushes the events in a causal sequence. Accordingly,
reactive sequences are featured by counterattacks when some actors challenges and some
supports institutional patterns established during critical junctures (Mahoney 2001, 115).
Outcome
When the configuration of a new institution constitutes a stable, single, equilibrium, we have
reached a final outcome. Important to emphasize is, however, that this single equilibrium just
signal the end of the legacy of one critical juncture in history and most likely the launch of a
new key choice point (Mahoney 2001, 115).
Hypothesis
To what extent were the key political actors, i.e. Deng Xiaoping and his reformist colleagues
within the CPC, constrained by the “old” Maoist institutions during the implementation of the
economic reform program post-1978?
With a brief empirical overview of China‟s modern history and the achieved
economic miracle within such a short time period, one would probably assume that the major
actors were not significantly limited by the communist legacy of Mao Zedong, since they
managed to establish capitalism and market economy, contrary to the paradigms of
communism of a centrally planned economy, a large role of the government.
Concepts of path dependence and critical junctures chosen for this thesis project
would seek to bridge the debate between actors and structures theorists and claim that:
In case of a critical juncture, key actors have the power to fundamentally change
pre-existing institutions and establish new ones. In other words, they have the autonomy to set
the “old” institutions on a new path of development. The reason is that essential conditions
reinforcing the previous structures are fundamentally altered, e.g. due to an internal or
external crisis. However, by applying the two concepts it is possible to explain why also
structures matter, recognizing that the options available to rational actors at critical junctures
are limited by earlier key events in the history of the particular institution at issue.
7
UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
2010-10-22
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
In sum, the two chosen frameworks recognize the autonomy of rational actors
during critical junctures, but also the constraints from pre-existing structures, limiting the
accessible options at such a key choice point.
With this theoretical discussion in mind and assertion that the events around
1978 fulfilled the conditions of a critical juncture, I hypothesize that Deng Xiaoping and his
reformist colleagues within the CPC had crucial power to fundamentally shift the previous
Chinese path of bad economic development. Nevertheless, the options at hand for those major
actors were significantly limited due to the legacy of the “old” Maoist institutions.
Furthermore, resistance from those “old” structures constrained the reformist key actors also
during the implementation of reform.
Operationalization
To operationalize this hypothesis I will use the analytical structure by Mahoney (2001, 112115), presented in the theory chapter. Below I will briefly outline the steps in this research
model in order to carry out process tracing and what these particular phases corresponds to in
the empirical case China and the economic reform program.
First, the antecedent conditions should roughly correspond the particular reform options
available to Deng Xiaoping at the moment of the critical juncture. Here, I will put focus on
tracing to what extent the options were limited by old structures. Secondly, the critical
juncture would be the introduction of the economic reform program in 1978. Next, structural
persistence or institutional reproduction is particularly how the key actors, the reformists,
within the CPC were prone to reproduce the institutions, i.e. support and give positive
feedback to the new structures or reforms due to learning and coordination effects, and
adaptive expectations (Pierson 2000, 252; Arthur 1994, Ch. 7; North 1990, 94, view Mahoney
2001, 114). Subsequently, the reactive sequences make up the conservative wing within the
party challenging the new institutions, that is the properties of backlash and counter-response
(Mahoney 2001, 115). Finally, the sequential events of the conservatives vs. the reformist
elite, that is to say the negative backlash against the positive feedback process lead to a final
outcome of the particular critical juncture in 1978. Did Deng Xiaoping and his associates
8
UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
2010-10-22
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
completely succeed with the initial goal of the economic reform or did they have to
significantly compromise with the conservatives?
The time period at focus for my study will between 1978, from the introduction of the
economic reform program at the Third Plenum of the Eleventh Central Committee, until
1993, at the Fourteenth Central Committee that “form the „bookends‟ of Deng Xiaoping‟s
efforts at modernizing China” (Marti 2002, 207).
Explicit focus of investigation, with respect to my chose research question, will
be the “building blocks” – antecedent conditions and reactive sequences – since they will
demonstrate the degree of influence or limitation from the “old” Maoist institutions.
Sources
This thesis project will rely heavily on secondary sources, namely simple history books about
China, describing the development of its political institutions between 1949 and 1978, but
with particular focus of the period 1978 to 1993. I do not consider this type of study, which
would then be a qualitative single case study, particularly controversial when it comes to
finding appropriate sources.
What I aim do is an in-depth analysis of Chinese history and search for facts
supporting or disproving a significant impact of the Maoist institutions on the autonomy of
the key political actors, Deng Xiaoping and his reformist associates. I will particularly look
for detailed information about the antecedent conditions and reactive sequences, i.e. to what
extent the elite that gained from the old structures challenged the reformist wing, during this
market reform implementation.
Some secondary sources I believe will be useful in my essay are Michael E.
Marti (2002) “China and the Legacy of Deng Xiaoping: From Communist Revolution to
Capitalist Evolution”, Richard Evans (1995), “Deng Xiaoping and the making of modern
China”, Maurice Meisner (2002) “Mao's China and after: a history of the People's Republic”
and John Gittings (2005) “The changing face of China: from Mao to market”.
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UPPSALA UNIVERSITY
Department of Government
Stina Bergman
Comparative Politics (D-level, Master), Fall 2010
Thesis Proposal
Course coordinator: Sten Widmalm
2010-10-22
References
Baum, Richard (1994), Burying Mao: Chinese Politics in the Age of Deng Xiaoping,
Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 489 pp.
Collier, Ruth Berins and Collier, David (1991), Shaping the Political Arena: Critical
Junctures, The Labour Movement and Regime Dynamics in Latin America, Princeton, N.J.:
Princeton University Press, 877 pp.
Evans, Richard (1995), Deng Xiaoping and the making of modern China, London: Penguin
Books, 384 pp.
Gittings, John (2005), The changing face of China: from Mao to market, Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 372 pp.
Kohli, Atul (2004), State-Directed Development: Political Power and Industrialisation in the
Global Periphery, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 466.
Lipset & Rokkan (1967), Party systems and voter alignments: Cross-national perspectives,
Toronto: The Free Press, 554 pp.
Mahoney, James (2001), ”Path-Dependent Explanations of Regime Change: Central America
in Comparative Perspective”, Studies in Comparative International Development, 31:1, 111141.
Marti, Michael E. (2002), China and the Legacy of Deng Xiaoping: From Communist
Revolution to Capitalist Evolution, Washington, D.C.: Brassey's, 263 pp.
Meisner, Maurice (1999), Mao's China and after: a history of the People's Republic, New
York: Free Press, 587 pp.
Pierson, Paul (2000), “Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics”
American Political Science Review 92:4, 251-267.
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