Japan’s Foreign Policy
Lecture Four:
Nov. 18 (Fri) 2011
*Related chapters in Iokibe’s edited volume, The Diplomatic History of Postwar
Japan: Chapter 3 and 4
Outline
Chapter 5:
Okinawa reversion
(See the reference materials for Nov. 4)
Chapter 6:
Facing the New Challenges: “Nixon Shocks” and the Oil Crisis.
The China Problem
Nixon Shock (July 15, 1971): Nixon revealed his plan to visit China by May 1972.
Nightmare of Asakai (Koichiro)
China before Nixon Shock
1965: The bombings in North Vietnam.
1966: The Cultural Revolution: the emergence of the Red Guards.
1968: China-Soviet clash over the Damansky Island (Zhenbao Island)
Aug. 1969: Soviet invasion into Czech and the Brezhnev Doctrine
Apr. 1969: End of the Cultural Revolution; Lin Biao named as successor.
Jan. 1969: Nixon becomes the president.
Jul. 1969: the Guam Doctrine
Jan. 1970: the U.S.-China ambassador-level talks started in Warsaw.
Mar. 1971: Ping-Pong Diplomacy
Jul. 9th -11th 1971: Kissinger visited Beijing secretly from Pakistan.
Great shock to Japan
A few scholars like Masataka Kosaka and Seizaburo Sato welcomed it.
Couldn’t this be predicted?
The Consul General in Hong Kong, Akira Okada
1
Autumn 1970: China restored relations with Canada.
Feb. - Mar. 1971: Zhou En-lai’s remarks to the former FM Fujiyama
Feb. 25th: Nixon stated his intention to start dialogue with China.
Jul.5th: Zhou En-lai visited Hanoi to explain the situation
Disputes over the textile
It was not an easy choice for China either.
Sep. 1971: Lin Biao Incident
Deng Xiaoping came back soon; gained control over military Mar. 1973.
Chinese Representation Issue at the United Nations
Sep. 22nd: Sato decides to be a cosponsor of “the reversed designation
formula of important matters.”
Decision by voting in the General Assembly: 55-59-15
Important reasons: Okinawa Issue, the ratification of the treaty.
Sato’s approach
Hori Letter: from the Governor of Tokyo, Minobe, to Zhou En-lai.
The Chinese three principles: “The PRC is the only legitimate government
representing China; Taiwan is a part of China; the Peace Treaty between
Japan and the Republic of China has to be abolished.”
Ratification of Okinawa was completed on Nov. 2nd. On Nov. 10th,
Competition among Fukuda, Tanaka, Ohira, Miki, and Nakasone
Fukuda, the crown prince vs. Tanaka
First vote: Tanaka 156- Fukuda150
Final: Tanaka 282-Fukuda 190
The Currency Issue
Aug. 15th 1971 Nixon announced dollar-defense measures such as temporary
suspension of exchange of dollar and gold and 10% surcharge on imports.
Transition to the Smithsonian Monetary System (Dec. 18, 1971)
West Germany as a precedent.
2
Similar phenomenon happened in Japan in 1969.
A secret project in MOF
1) Controlled inflation: inflation leads to reduction in exports.
2) Assistance and capital export to the developing countries.
3) The currency revaluation.
Revaluation planned after the general election in Dec. 1969.
Unexpected result and the dynamics of factional politics
As a result, Japan faced the Nixon Shock when it was in vulnerable state.
Japan did not switch to the floating system; massive selling of dollars took
place; The Smithsonian Agreement of Dec.18, 1971($1 = ¥308)
The breakup of the Smithsonian monetary system
Similar situation in Sep. 1972; stuck to the rate of ¥308 per dollar
Dec. 1972: The general election.
Finance Minister Kiichi Aichi’s plan.
Feb.: A massive selling of dollars.
Mid Feb.: the exchange rate was established at 264－265 yen per dollar.
Problems: No long-term perspective in the Ministry.
Slowness in decision-making.
Chronology
1964 (Showa 39)
0802
Gulf of Tonkin incident (U.S. naval forces attacked by a N. Vietnam torpedo)
1109
Eisaku Sato becomes president of the LDP and PM
1965 (Showa 40)
0207
U.S. starts bombing to North Vietnam
0622
Japan-South Korea Normalization Treaty
0819
Sato visits Okinawa
1966 (Showa 41)
0516
Cultural Revolution in China
3
1201
Sato elected to LDP president for the second time
1967 (Showa 42)
0129
31st General Election
1115
Sato-Johnson talks
1968 (Showa 43)
0331
President Johnson denies his bid for re-election and announces halt of U.S.
bombing of the North Vietnam
1120
Sato elected to LDP president for the third time
1969 (Showa 44)
0310
Sato shows his negotiation policy: a “nuclear free, mainland status” Okinawa
1119
Sato-Nixon Talks
1227
32nd General Election; LDP’s landslide victory
1970 (Showa 45)
0622
Japan-U.S. negotiation on textiles, in Washington
1013
China established relations with Canada. Italy and Ethiopia followed suit.
1029
Sato elected to LDP President for the fourth term (Sato 353, Miki 111)
1971 （Showa 46）
0407
U.S. - China Ping Pong Diplomacy started
0505
West Germany closed its stock exchange market due to massive influx of
the dollar
0617
Signing of the Okinawa Reversion Agreement
0705
The third reshuffling of the Sato Cabinet, Minister of Foreign Affairs Fukuda
Takeo, Minister of International Trade and Industry Tanaka Kakuei
0709
Kissinger visits China, agreed on a visit by the President by May the following
year, announced on the 15th
0815
Second Nixon Shock
0913
Lin Biao failed the coup (09089), died in a plane crash while escaping
0922
Prime Minister Sato decides to be the cosponsor for the important question in
reverse designation formula resolution and the combined dual representation
resolution on Chinese representation issue
0927
The Emperor and Empress depart to Europe
4
1025
Reverse designation formula resolution rejected at the UN; PRC invited,
resolution to expel the Chinese Nationalist Government passed
1110
The U.S. Senate ratifies the Agreement between Japan and the United States
of America Concerning the Ryukyu Islands and the Daito Islands
1206
Korean President Park Chung-hee announces national a state of emergency
1218
1$ = 308 yen (Smithsonian Rate)
1972
(Showa 47)
0103
U.S. - Japan textile agreement signed
0221
Nixon visits China (-27)
0515
Administrative right of Okinawa returned, Okinawa Prefecture established
0611
Tanaka Kakuei’s “A plan for remodeling the Japanese archipelago” published
June 20th becomes a bestseller
0617
Watergate scandal revealed
0704
Korea - North Korea Joint Statement on Peaceful Reunification of the North
and the South
0705
LDP Presidential election; Tanaka Kakuei was elected (first vote: Tanaka 156,
Fukuda 150, runoff: Tanaka 282, Fukuda 190)
0831
Prime Minister Tanaka, talks with President Nixon in Hawaii (the U.S. asks
for purchase of Tristar）
0925
Prime Minister Tanaka and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ohira visit China
0929
Signing of the Joint Communiqué of Japan and PRC, Minister of Foreign
Affairs states that the Japan-Taiwan Peace Treaty had expired
1017
Korean President Park put the country under martial law, 1227 the
establishment of the Yusin regime
1210
The 33rd general election in the House of the Representatives
(LDP 271, Socialist 118, Communist 38, Komei 29, etc.)
1222
Reshuffling of the Tanaka Cabinet
1973
(Showa 48)
0210
Tokyo foreign exchange market was shut down due to massive selling of dollars,
0214 transition to a floating exchange system
0808
The Kim De Jun incident
0926
Prime Minister Tanaka visited Europe and the Soviet Union
1006
The fourth Middle East War broke out
1017
OAPEC decided to cut down the oil production (The Oil Shock)
5
1023
Exxon and Shell notified 30% rise in oil price
1025
Exxon and other five oil suppliers notified 10% cut in oil supplies
1114
Kissinger visited Japan. Prime Minister Tanaka discussed the oil issue with
Minister of Foreign Affairs Ohira
1116
The government agreed on the outline of emergency plan including 10% oil
supply cut to industries with large scale oil demand
1122
Cabinet meeting, transformation of policies towards the Middle East, support
for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from all occupied areas
1125
Tanaka reshuffled his cabinet, with Fukuda Takeo as Minister of Finance
1210
Deputy Prime Minister Miki Takeo visited eight countries in the Middle East
as a special envoy to make breakthrough in the Oil Crisis
1225
OAPEC, regarding Japan as a friendly country, decided to supply necessary
amount of oil
1974
0107
(Showa 49)
Tanaka visited Southeast Asia,
0109
anti-Japanese
demonstration
in
Bangkok, 0115 anti-Japanese riot in Jakarta
0707
The 10th Upper House election (LDP 62, Socialist 28, Komei 14…….)
0712
Miki resigned, criticizing PM Tanaka’s political stance; 0716 Minister of
Finance Fukuda resigned, too.
0808
President Nixon announced resignation, 0809 President Ford was inaugurated
1010
Tachibana Takashi published "Tanaka Kakuei Kenkyuu: Sono Kinmyaku to
Jinmyaku" (in the November issue of Bungeisyunjyu)
1118
President Ford visited Japan (first incumbent president to visit Japan)
1126
Tanaka announced resignation at a cabinet meeting
1209
Miki elected to Prime Minister
6