Verification Of January HDD Forecasts
W2020 / Average
HDD stands for Heating Degree Day. A Heating Degree Day is zero if the average temperature is
65 degrees. An HDD of -30 would mean an average temperature of 35°. This chart shows eight
zip codes picked out to verify the results from January. Santa Rosa, CA is the only one on this
list to come in less accurate than traditional forecast methods of using what typically happens
during a month by using averages. Now, look below for more validation.
The Verified January Forecasts Using The LRC
These charts are what you receive with our analysis as a premium customer!
The Zip Code Forecast using our Weather2020 Projection Model is coming in extremely accurate. The one zip
code in our list above that was less accurate than average still had tremendous success. Just look at the
forecast for the higher HDD totals and lower HDD totals in Santa Rosa, CA, the upper left graphic. The pattern
is cycling and you can see the cycle very well. Even though the results were not as accurate as that blue
average line predicted during January, the forecast of when it would be warmer and when it would be colder
was almost spot on.
On the second map on the right, the much more accurate one from Grand Rapids, MI the trends again are still
there and forecast quite well, but the success in this one over a one month stretch was phenomenal. When you
are using this data, you have to try very hard to analyze over 20 to 40 day stretches.
Important point: In these reports and in our videos we will be picking out the periods when we see that the
automated system will be off by a few HDDs. By next winter we will be working on adding these adjustments
into the equations and this will become even more accurate next winter.
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Forecast: More Like October Than December
February 10th Temperatures
This map shows the Arctic Air mass that
was generated by the recent blocking. It is
about to exit most of Canada, but after at
least one surge into the USA.
February 17th Temperatures
Look at what happens by February 17th.
If this model holds, then the Arctic air will
retreat again right on schedule.
Looking Ahead Through March
Arctic Air May Be Held Up North
Arctic Air Retreat Happens Again In February
IMPACTS – There have been two previous cycles of
this years weather pattern. In October the Arctic Air
stayed on the other side of the Northern Hemisphere. It
was stuck on the Siberia and Asia side. Arctic air has
built over onto the North American side in recent days
and it has been building. If it is like October, it will
more likely be held up to the north.
Just like in January, the Arctic air will retreat north. There are
two chances of the Arctic air blasting south. One will happen
before the 20th of February. And, then there is one more
chance in the first ten days of March. Overall we are
forecasting above average temperatures and below average
HDDs between now and April 1st.
Weather2020 forecasted January would warm up with
the best chance of the Arctic Air retreat to arrive in midJanuary. It is happening right on schedule! It may
surprise you, but December was not as cold as it may
have seemed. Here is what happened in December.
WEATHER 2020 Is Monitoring The Arcic Air
Closely.
ARCTIC OUTBREAK LESS LIKELY IN FEBRUARY!
There will likely be an Arctic surge around the 9th of February
but then, as you can see on the map above, another retreat
of the Arctic air is likely.
Copyright © 2016 Weather2020, 14141 Nicklaus Drive, Overland Park, KS 66223 www.weathert2020.com
Our Winter Forecast As Compared To What Has Happened So Far
The top map shows the verification of what has happened over the past 90 days, and the bottom map shows what our
forecast for the winter was as issued on November 17th. Most of the nation has been either at what we had forecast or
a bit warmer than what we forecast, especially over New England. This trend has continued.
Copyright © 2016 Weather2020, 14141 Nicklaus Drive, Overland Park, KS 66223 www.weathert2020.com
Weak La Niña conditions forecast to become neutral
El Niño/La Niña Since 2004
La Niña is barely hanging on as we move through this first
part of winter. It is forecast to become neutral as you can
see above. This is an influence on the overall pattern, but
the weather pattern will continue to cycle according to the
LRC through September.
An El Niño or a La Niña event becomes official whenever you
have five overlapping 3-month averages of above or below 0.5°C.
We just reached our third consecutive three month average of
-.5°C or lower. This will likely go down as a weak La Niña winter.
LA Niña & El Niño Are Only An Influence On The Overall Cycling Pattern
A LOOK BACK AT EL NIÑO
IMPACTS – El Niño became the strongest one ever
recorded this past winter. What was supposed to
happen didn’t quite happen. Yes, it was a warmer than
average winter as Weather2020 accurately predicted.
The rains never materialized in Southern California. 44
inches of rain fell in Seattle, way above average. The
forecasts that came out from other sources were wrong
as they predicted a dry winter across the Pacific
Northwest, and a wet winter across Southern
California. Instead, it was dry in Los Angeles once
again.
La Niña has been weak: La Niña strengthened, but
then weakened rapidly. The La Niña influence has
been there and we have seen some impacts.
Something amazing happened as we moved into
January. California got blasted by storm systems and
this was supposed to happen last year in El Niño and
NOT in La Niña. This is another example of something
bigger going on. The LRC is the centerpiece of the big
puzzle!
SUPPLY & DEMAND: This winter is definitely colder
than last year, but there are still very few record highs
being set. Your teams should be preparing now for the
two week Arctic outbreak in February. Overall, the
heating demands will still only be slightly more than in
an average winter.
EL NIÑO Possible next winter: As you can see on the
upper left graphic on this page, the forecast for the
ENSO conditions to become warmer are increasingly
becoming likely. This could mean El Niño next winter.
Again, what will this mean for energy supply and
demand? It will depend on the strength of this potential
phenomenon. We will have an early look into next
winter in our spring updates.
The wet weather just experienced out west was
created by the cycling pattern as described by this
years LRC and not La Niña. If you were to just use La
Niña then the forecast would be for a very dry winter in
California. That forecast obviously has failed.
Weather2020 accurately predicted these systems to
blast into California weeks ago.
Copyright © 2016 Weather2020, 14141 Nicklaus Drive, Overland Park, KS 66223 www.weathert2020.com
Using The Weather2020 Advantage In Planning For Future Weather
Verified Forecast issued December 12th: What to expect the rest of this month: We are expecting this week to be the
last very cold one for a while. There will continue to be shots of cold, however, but a major moderation of the Arctic air is likely
during the week before Christmas. There is a 75% chance of another Arctic blast by around New Years.
Verified Forecast issued December 12th: What to expect in January: We are forecasting the warm November part of the
pattern to cycle through during January. The month may start out very cold with below average temperatures through key
locations, but then a big warming trend is likely and may last for three weeks.
Updated February Outlook: We are forecasting the first half of February to be near to a bit below average on temperatures
and above average on HDD values. But, then the end of the month warm up will more than balance this month and many zip
codes will likely end up with a warmer than average month.
March Forecast: The November and January parts of the cycling pattern will be experienced. The March version will feature
bigger warm ups. There will also likely be a couple major impacting winter storm systems mixed in.
Copyright © 2016 Weather2020, 14141 Nicklaus Drive, Overland Park, KS 66223 www.weathert2020.com