On Compliance Author(s): Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes Source: International Organization, Vol. 47, No. 2 (Spring, 1993), pp. 175-205 Published by: The MIT Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2706888 Accessed: 26-02-2015 15:35 UTC Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. The MIT Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to International Organization. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance AbramChayesand AntoniaHandlerChayes complexand interdependentworld,negotiation,adoption, In an increasingly of internationalagreementsis a majorcomponentof the and implementation foreignpolicy activityof everystate.1Internationalagreementscome in a varietyof shapes and sizes-formal and informal,bilateral and multiparty, universaland regional. Our concern is with contemporaryagreementsof relativelyhigh political salience in fields such as security,economics,and where the treatyis a centralstructuralelement in a broader environment, internationalregulatoryregime.2Some of these agreementsare littlemore treaty chapterto a moreextendedstudyofcompliancewithinternational This is an introductory obligations.The researchhas been supportedby grantsfromthe Pew CharitableTrust and the CarnegieCorporationof New York,forwhichwe wishto expressour gratitude.Earlierversionsof HarvardUniversity, thisarticlewerepresentedat seminarsat theKennedySchool of Government, and at the Universityof Chicago Law School. Robert Keohane has been particularlyhelpfulin on the earlierefforts. Our thanksare also due to our manystudentresearchassistants commenting and especiallyto Sean Cote, Fred Jacobs,and JanMartinez,who laboredon thereferences. 1. BarryE. Carterand PhillipR. Trimble,IntemationalLaw (Boston: Little,Brown,1991), pp. 133-252,cite a statisticalstudyshowingthatof 10,189U.S. treatiesand internationalagreements made between1789 and 1979, 8,955were concludedbetween1933 and 1979 (see p. 169). In the agreementsratifiedwiththeadviceand U.S. lexicon,theterm"treaty"is reservedforinternational consentof the Senate in accordancewithArticle2, cl. 2 of the Constitution.Other international agreementsare concludedbythe President,in thegreatmajorityof cases withtheauthorizationof All ofthese are "treaties"according on his or herown responsibility. Congressand less frequently to internationalusage,whichdefinesa treatyas "an internationalagreement,concludedbetween statesin writtenformand governedbyinternationallaw." See Vienna Conventionon the Law of Treaties (enteredintoforceon 27 January1980) Article2(1)(a), in IntemationalLegal Materials, vol. 8 (Washington,D.C.: The AmericanSocietyof InternationalLaw, July1969), pp. 679-735 (hereaftercited as Vienna Conventionon the Law of Treaties). The quotationis foundon p. 701. The computerbank of the United Nations (UN) TreatyOfficeshows treatygrowth,including multilateraland bilateral treatiesand amendments,as follows:373 treatieswere entered into duringthe ten-yearperiod endingin 1955; 498 in the period endingin 1965; 808 in the period endingin 1975;461 in theperiodendingin 1985; and 915 in theperiodendingin 1991. a contracor explicitly, practice,adopts,implicitly 2. Treatylaw, based on nineteenth-century tualmodelofbilateralrelationships(or, at most,agreementsamonga fewparties),and a good deal Althoughnineteenthrelationsreflectsthissame framework. workin international ofcontemporary centurylegal thoughtwas hospitableto conceptionsbased on contract,theydo notfitcomfortably lawmaking. withregulatory 47, 2, Spring1993 Organization International ?3 1993 bytheWorldPeace Foundationand theMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 176 InternationalOrganization than statementsof general principle,while otherscontaindetailed prescriptionsfora definedfieldof interaction.Stillothersmaybe umbrellaagreements forconsensusbuildingin preparationformorespecificregulation.Most ofthe agreementsof concernare multilateral,except in the fieldof nuclear arms control,in whichthe cold war generateda seriesof bilateralnegotiationsand agreementsbetweenthe UnitedStatesand the SovietUnion. We believe thatwhen nationsenterintoan internationalagreementof this and theirexpectationsofone kind,theyaltertheirbehavior,theirrelationships, That in accordance with its terms. anotherovertime is,theywillto some extent complywith the undertakingsthey have made.3 How or why this should be so is the subject of a burgeoningliteratureand debate in which,forthe firsttime in half a century,the possibilityof fruitfuldialogue between internationallawyersand studentsof internationalrelationshas emerged. This article explores some basic propositionswe thinkshould frame this discussion. First,the generallevel of compliancewithinternationalagreementscannot be empirically verified.That nationsgenerallycomplywiththeirinternational on theone hand,and thattheyviolatethemwheneveritis "in their agreements, intereststo do so" are not statementsof factor even hypothesesto be tested, but assumptions.We give some reasons why we think the background to complyis plausibleand useful. assumptionof a propensity Second, complianceproblemsoftendo not reflecta deliberatedecisionto violate an internationalundertakingon the basis of a calculationof interests. We propose a varietyof other(and in ourviewmoreusual) reasonswhystates these maydeviatefromtreatyobligationsand why,in particularcircumstances, suchdepartures. reasonsare acceptedbythepartiesas justifying Third,the treatyregimeas a whole need not and should not be held to a standard of strictcompliance but to a level of overall compliance that is "acceptable" in the lightof the interestsand concernsthe treatyis designed to safeguard.We consider how the "acceptable level" is determinedand adjusted. 3. We are mindfulof the distinctionbetweentreatycomplianceand regimeeffectiveness. See Hard Cases and CriticalVariables," of InternationalInstitutions: Oran Young,"The Effectiveness Orderand Government: in JamesN. Rosenau and Ernst-OttoCzempiel,eds., GovemanceWithout Changein WorldPolitics(Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress, 1992), pp. 160-92; and Jesse Ausubel and David Victor,"Verificationof InternationalEnvironmentalAgreements,"Annual vol. 17, 1992,pp. 1-43. The partiesto theInternationalWhaling ReviewofEnergyand Environment, Convention,for example,complied fullywiththe quotas set by its commission,but the whale populationcrashedbecause the quotas were too high.Nevertheless,we thinkthe observance(or not) of treatycommitments bythe partiesis a subjectworthstudyingin its own right.Moreover, treatiesare ordinarilyintendedto induce behaviorthatis expectedto amelioratethe problemto whichtheyare directed,so that,ifYoung's warningis keptin mind,compliancemaybe a fairfirst approximation surrogateforeffectiveness. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 177 Backgroundassumption Accordingto Louis Henkin,"almostall nationsobservealmostall principlesof almostall ofthetime."4 The international law and almostall of theirobligations observationis frequentlyrepeated without anyone, so far as we know, supplyingany empiricalevidence to supportit. A moment'sreflectionshows thatit would not be easy to devise a statisticalprotocolthatwould generate such evidence. For example, how would Iraq's unbrokenrespect for the bordersofTurkey,Jordan,and Saudi Arabia countin thereckoningagainstthe invasionsof Iran and Kuwait? Equally, and for much the same reasons, there is no way to validate empiricallythe positionof mainstreamrealistinternationalrelationstheory goingback to Machiavelli,that "a prudentrulercannot keep his word,nor would damage him,and when the reasons that should he, wheresuch fidelity realistsaccept that made himpromiseare no longerrelevant."5Contemporary theinterestin reciprocalobservationoftreatynormsbyotherpartiesor a more general interestin the state's reputationas a reliable contractualpartner of costsand benefitson whicha decisionis shouldbe countedin the trade-off based (an extensionthatdetractsconsiderablyfromthepowerand eleganceof therealistformula).6No calculus,however,willsupplya rigorous,nontautological answer to the question whethera state observed a particulartreaty obligation,much less its treatyobligationsgenerally,onlywhen it was in its interestto do so. Anecdotal evidenceabounds forboththe normativeand the realistpropositions,but neitherof them,in theirgeneral form,is subject to betweenthetwoschoolsis notone statisticalor empiricalproof.The difference of factbut of the backgroundassumptionthatinformstheirapproach to the subject. A criticalquestionforany studyof compliance,then,is whichbackground assumptionto adopt, and that questionis to be resolvednot on the basis of whetherthe assumptionis "true" or "false" butwhetheror notit is helpfulfor the particularinquiry.Thus, forgame-theoretic approachesthatfocuson the oftherelationshipbetweenstates,therealistassumptionofa abstractstructure unitaryrationalactoroptimizingutilitiesdistributedalong smoothpreference curvesmayhavevalue. As Thomas Schellingsaid at thebeginningofhis classic Press,1979), 4. See Louis Henkin,How NationsBehave,2d ed. (New York: ColumbiaUniversity p. 47; and p. 69 of Louis Henkin,"InternationalLaw: Politics,Values, and Functions:General Course on Public InternationalLaw," Recueil Des Cours,vol. 216, 1989, pp. 1-416, emphasis original. 5. Niccol6 Machiavelli, The Prince, eds. Quentin Skinner and Russell Price (Cambridge: CambridgeUniversityPress, 1988), pp. 61-62. For a moderninstance,see Hans J. Morgenthau, forPowerand Peace, 5th ed. (New York: AlfredA. Knopf, PoliticsAmongNations: The Struggle 1978),p. 560: "In myexperience[states]willkeep theirbargainsas longas it is in theirinterest." 6. See, forexample,JamesA. Caporaso, "InternationalRelationsTheoryand Multilateralism: 46 (Summer1992),pp. 599-632. The Search forFoundations,"IntemationalOrganization This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 178 InternationalOrganization work,"The premiseof 'rationalbehavior'is a potentone fortheproductionof theory.Whetherthe resultingtheoryprovidesgood or poor insightintoactual behavioris ... a matterforsubsequentjudgment."7 Our interestin thisworkis in improvingthe prospectsforcompliancewith treaties,both at the draftingstage and later as the partieslive and operate therealistanalysis,focusingon a narrowset underthem.Fromthisperspective, of externallydefined "interests"-primarily,in the classical version, the maintenanceor enhancementof state militaryand economic power-is not veryhelpful.Improvingcompliancebecomes a matterof the manipulationof burdensand benefitsdefinedin termsof those interests,whichtranslatesinto the applicationof militaryor economic sanctions.Because these are costly, difficult to mobilize,and of doubtfulefficacy, theyare infrequently used in practice. Meanwhile, analytic attentionis divertedfrom a wide range of institutionaland political mechanismsthat in practice bear the burden of efforts to enhancetreatycompliance. For a studyof the methods by which compliance can be improved,the backgroundassumptionof a general propensityof states to complywith internationalobligations,whichis the basis on whichmostpractitioners carry out theirwork,seems more illuminating.8 We note here some of the chief to such an assumption.We do not suggest considerationsthatlend plausibility thatthese factors,singlyor in combination,will lead to compliancein every case or even in any particular instance. Our claim is only that these for considerationssupportthebackgroundassumptionof a generalpropensity statesto complywiththeirtreatyobligations. Efficiency Decisions are not a freegood. Governmentalresourcesforpolicyanalysis and decisionmakingare costlyand in shortsupply.Individualsand organizations seek to conserve those resources for the most urgent and pressing matters.9In these circumstances,standardeconomic analysisargues against the continuousrecalculationof costsand benefitsin the absence of convincing evidence that circumstanceshave changed since the originaldecision. EffiIn areas of activitycoveredby ciencydictatesconsiderablepolicycontinuity. 7. Thomas C. Schelling,The Strategy of Conflict(Cambridge,Mass.: HarvardUniversity Press, 1980), p. 4. 8. Oran R. Young, Complianceand PublicAuthority: A TheorywithIntemationalApplications (Baltimore,Md.: JohnsHopkinsUniversity Press,1979),pp. 31-34. 9. See George Stigler,"The Economicsof Information," JoumalofPoliticalEconomy69 (June 1961), pp. 213-25; G. J. Stiglerand G. S. Becker,"De Gustibusnon Est Disputandum"(There is no disputingtaste),in Karen S. Cook and MargaretLevi, eds., TheLimitsofRationality (Chicago: of Chicago Press, 1990), pp. 191-216; Charles E. Lindblom,ThePolicyMakingProcess University (Englewood Cliffs,N.J.:Prentice-Hall,1968), p. 14; and Young, Complianceand PublicAuthority, pp. 16-17. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 179 treatyobligations,the alternativeto recalculationis to followthe established rule. Organizationtheorywould reach the same resultas economicanalysis,but by a differentroute. In place of the continuouslycalculating,maximizing rationalactor,it substitutesa "satisficing"model of bounded rationalitythat reactsto problemsas theyarise and searchesforsolutionswithina familiarand In thisanalysis,bureaucraticorganizationsare viewed accustomedrepertoire.10 accordingto routinesand standardoperatingprocedures,often as functioning rules and regulations.For Max Weber,thiswas the specifiedby authoritative definingcharacteristicof bureaucracy.1"The adoption of a treaty,like the rule system.Complienactmentof anyotherlaw, establishesan authoritative ance is thenormalorganizationalpresumption. The bureaucracyis not monolithic,of course, and it will likelycontain opponents of the treatyregime as well as supporters.When there is an applicable rule in a treatyor otherwise,oppositionordinarilysurfacesin the and takestheformofargumentoverinterpretacourseofruleimplementation tion of language and definitionof the exact contentof the obligation.Such controversies are settledin accordancewithnormalbureaucraticproceduresin which,again, the presumptionis in favorof "following"the rule. Casuistryis admissible,thoughsometimessuspect.An advocateofoutrightviolationbears a heavyburdenofpersuasion. Interests onlywhenitis in their The assertionthatstatescarryout treatycommitments are somehowunrelatedto interestto do so seems to implythatcommitments interests.In fact,theoppositeis true.The mostbasic principleof international law is thatstatescannotbe legallybound exceptwiththeirown consent.So, in thefirstinstance,thestateneed notenterintoa treatythatdoes notconformto itsinterests.12 10. Herbert Simon, Models of Man: Social and Rational-MathematicalEssays on Rational Human Behaviorin a Social Setting(New York: JohnWiley& Sons, 1957), pp. 200-204. See also (New York: JohnWiley& Sons, 1958), p. JamesG. March and HerbertA. Simon,Organizations 169. For an example of this model of organizationalbehavior applied to the analysis of see GrahamT. Allison,TheEssenceofDecision:ExplainingtheCuban Missile internationalaffairs, Crisis(Glenview,Ill.: Scott,Foresman,1971),chaps. 3 and 4. 11. M. Rheinstein,ed., Max Weberon Law in Economyand Society(New York: Simon and Schuster,1954), p. 350: "For modernbureaucracy,the elementof 'calculabilityof its rules' has reallybeen of decisivesignificance." 12. Even in the case of peace treaties,thevictorseems to attachimportanceto the signatureof the vanquished on the document.Afterthe Persian Gulf War, for example, the UN Security Council insistedthatIraq accept the termsof Resolution687 establishinga cease-fire.See Sean of Section C of UN SecurityCouncil Resolution687, Cote, A Narrativeof the Implementation Cambridge, Occasional Paper, CenterforScience and InternationalAffairs,HarvardUniversity, and Morgenthau,PoliticsAmong Nations,p. 282. Mass., forthcoming; This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 180 InternationalOrganization More important,a treatydoes not presentthe state witha simple binary are alternative,to signor not to sign.Treaties,like otherlegal arrangements, artifactsof politicalchoice and social existence.The processbywhichtheyare formulatedand concluded is designed to ensure that the final result will represent,to some degree,an accommodationof the interestsof the negotiating states. Of course, if state interestsare taken to be fixedand given,the assertionthat states do not conclude treatiesexcept as theyembodythose interestswouldadd littleto therealistposition.But moderntreatymaking,like legislationin a democraticpolity,can be seen as a creativeenterprisethrough but whichthe partiesnot onlyweighthe benefitsand burdensof commitment explore,redefine,and sometimesdiscovertheirinterests.It is at its best a learningprocess in whichnot onlynationalpositionsbut also conceptionsof nationalinterestevolve. level. In This processgoes on bothwithineach stateand at theinternational national positions a statewitha well-developedbureaucracy,theelaborationof vetting. in preparationfortreatynegotiationsrequiresextensiveinteragency in what and engage objectives withdifferent responsibilities Differentofficials the Trimble's list of U.S. a internal Phillip amountsto sustained negotiation. groupsnormallyinvolvedin arms controlnegotiationsincludes the national securitystaff,the Departmentsof State and Defense, the Arms Controland Disarmament Agency,the Joint Chiefs of Staff,the Central Intelligence Agency,and sometimestheDepartmentofEnergyor theNationalAeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).13 These organizationsthemselvesare not unitaryactors. Numeroussubordinateunits of the major departmentshave quasi-independentpositionsat the table. Much of the extensiveliteratureon U.S.-Soviet arms controlnegotiationsis devoted to analysisof the almost of theseinternalinteractions.14 byzantinecomplexity The processis not confinedto armscontrolbut can be seen in everymajor U.S. internationalnegotiation.For example,at the end of what Ambassador minuet"in preparationfortheVienna RichardBenedickcalls "the interagency Conventionforthe Protectionof the Ozone Layer,thefinalU.S. position"was clearedbytheDepartments draftedbytheState Departmentand was formally of Commerce and Energy,The Council on EnvironmentalQuality, EPA Joumal 13. PhillipR. Trimble,"ArmsControland InternationalNegotiationTheory,"Stanford ofIntemational Law 25 (Spring1989),pp. 543-74, especiallyp. 549. 14. See John Newhouse, Cold Dawn: The Storyof SALT (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Press Winston,1973); GerardC. Smith,Doubletalk:TheStoryofSALTI (Lanham, Md.: University of America,1985); StrobeTalbott,Endgame: The Inside Storyof SALT II (New York: Harper & and the Stalematein Row, 1979); Strobe Talbott,Deadly Gambits: The Reagan Administration Detenteand Confrontation: NuclearArmsControl(New York: Knopf,1984); RaymondL. Garthoff, 1985); American-Soviet RelationsfromNixonto Reagan (Washington,D.C.: BrookingsInstitution, and J. McNeill, "U.S.-U.S.S.R. Arms Negotiations:The Process and the Lawyer,"American JoumalofIntemationalLaw 79 (January1985), pp. 52-67. Althoughknowledgeof the processin the formerSoviet Union is less detailed, the sources cited above, among others,suggestthat bureaucraticstructure)the process was not (makingallowances fora more compartmentalized dissimilar. fundamentally This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 181 ProtectionAgency],NASA, NOAA [NationalOceanographic [Environmental and AtmosphericAdministration], OMB [Officeof Managementand Budget], USTR [U.S. Trade Representative],and the Domestic PolicyCouncil (representing all other interestedagencies)."'15In addition to this formidable alphabetsoup, WhiteHouse units,like the Officeof Science and Technology Policy, the Office of Policy Development, and the Council of Economic Advisers,also got into the act. Accordingto Trimble,"each agencyhas a distinctive perspectivefromwhichitviewstheprocessand whichinfluencesthe positionit advocates.... All these interestsmustbe accommodated,compromisedor overridenbythe Presidentbeforea positioncan even be put on the table."16 In the United States in recentyears,increasinginvolvement of Congressand withit nongovernmental organizations(NGOs) and the broaderpublichas introduceda new rangeof intereststhatmustultimately be reflectedin the national position.17Similar developmentsseem to be occurringin other democraticcountries. In contrastto day-to-dayforeignpolicy decision makingthat is oriented toward currentpolitical exigenciesand imminentdeadlines and is focused heavilyon short-term costsand benefits,themoredeliberateprocessemployed in treatymakingmayserveto identify and reinforcelongerrangeinterestsand values. Officialsengaged in developingthe negotiatingpositionoftenhave an additionalreason to take a long-rangeview,since theymayhave operational responsibility under any agreementthatis reached.18What theysay and how theyconductthemselvesat the negotiatingtable may returnto haunt them 15. Richard Elliot Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy: New Directionsin Safeguardingthe Planet (Cambridge,Mass: Harvard UniversityPress, 1991), pp. 51-53. The Domestic Policy Council, whichestablisheda special senior-levelworkinggroupto rideherdon theprocess,consistsof nine Cabinet secretaries,the directorfor the OMB, and the USTR. At the time of the ozone negotiations,the councilwas chairedbyAttorneyGeneral Edwin Meese. Other states,at least in advancedindustrialized societies,exhibitsimilar,ifperhapsnotquite as baroque,internalpractices in preparation for negotiations.Developing countries,with small resources to commit to bureaucraticcoordination,mayrelymore on the judgmentand inspirationof representatives on thescene. 16. Trimble,"ArmsControland InternationalNegotiationTheory,"p. 550. 17. See Benedick, Ozone Diplomacy,p. 57, for a descriptionof the emphasis on Congress, industry, and environmental groupsin thedevelopmentoftheU.S. strategy to buildsupportforthe Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. For a discussionof how governments "organizethemselvesto cope withtheflowofbusinessgeneratedbyinternational organizations"in an internationalpolitical systemof "complex interdependence,"see Robert 0. Keohane and 2d ed. (Glenview,Ill.: Scott,Foresman,1989),p. 35. JosephS. Nye,Powerand Interdependence, 18. Hudec uses the examplesof the General Agreementon Tariffsand Trade (GATT) and the InternationalTrade Organization(ITO): "For thebetterpartof thefirstdecade, GATT meetings resembleda reunionof the GATT/ITO draftsmenthemselves.Failure of the code would have meanta personalfailureto manyof theseofficials, and violationof rulestheyhad helped to write could not help being personallyembarrassing."See p. 1365 of Robert E. Hudec, "GATT or GABB? The FutureDesign of theGeneral AgreementofTariffsand Trade," Yale Law Joumal80 (June 1971), pp. 1299-386.See also RobertE. Hudec, The GATT Legal Systemand WorldTrade Diplomacy,2d ed. (Salem, N. H.: Butterworth Legal Publishers,1990),p. 54. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 182 InternationalOrganization Moreover,they are likelyto attach once the treatyhas gone into effect.19 considerable importanceto the developmentof governingnorms that will operate predictablywhen applied to the behaviorof the partiesovertime.All theseconvergentelementstendto influencenationalpositionsin the direction ofbroad-basedconceptionsofthenationalinterestthat,ifadequatelyreflected in thetreaty, willhelp to inducecompliance. The internalanalysis,negotiation,and calculationof the benefits,burdens, and impacts are repeated, for contemporaryregulatorytreaties, at the level.20In anticipationof negotiations,the issues are reviewedin international internationalforumslong before formalnegotiationbegins. The negotiating debate oftenlasting involvesintergovernmental processitselfcharacteristically but also international not onlyothernationalgovernments yearsand involving bureaucraciesand NGOs. The mostnotablecase is theUN Conferenceon the Law of the Sea, in whichthatprocesslasted formorethantenyears,spawning innumerablecommittees,subcommittees,and workinggroups, only to be torpedoed in the end by the United States, which had sponsored the negotiationsin thefirstplace.21Bilateralarmscontrolnegotiationsbetweenthe extended,and althoughonly UnitedStatesand theSovietUnionweresimilarly thetwosuperpowerswere directlyinvolved,each felta measureof responsibility to bring along the members of its alliance. Current environmental negotiationson ozone and on globalwarmingfollowverymuchthe Law of the ozone was convokedbythe Sea pattern.The firstconferenceon stratospheric UN Environment Program(UNEP) in 1977,eightyearsbeforethe adoptionof the Vienna Conventionon the Protectionof the Ozone Layer.22The formal beginningoftheclimatechangenegotiationsin February1991was precededby Panel on Climate Change, two years of work by the Intergovernmental and the UNEP to the World Organization convened by Meteorological considerscientific, technological,and policyresponsequestions.23 19. The Vienna Conventionon the Law of Treatiespermitslimitedrecourseto the negotiating historywhen the treatytextis ambiguous,thoughthe emphasisgivento such historydiffersin varioustribunalsand nationalcourts.See Vienna Conventionon theLaw ofTreaties,Article32. In the United States,resortto the negotiatinghistoryis muchfreer.See UnitedStatesv. Stuart,489 U.S. 353-377 (1989); and Detlev F. Vagts "Senate Materials and Treaty Interpretation:Some Research Hintsforthe SupremeCourt,"AmericanJoumalofIntemationalLaw 83 (July1989),pp. 546-50. 20. Robert D. Putnam,"Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:The Logic of Two-Level Games," 42 (Summer1988),pp. 427-60. IntemationalOrganization 21. See James K. Sebenius, Negotiatingthe Law of the Sea (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press,1984); and WilliamWertenbaker,"The Law of the Sea," parts1 and 2, TheNew Yorker,1 August1983,pp. 38-65, and 8 August1983,pp. 56-83, respectively. 22. As earlyas 1975,theUNEP fundeda WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO) technical conferenceon implicationsof U.S. ozone layer research.But the immediateprecursorof the negotiatingconferencein Vienna came in March 1977, when the UNEP sponsored a policy meetingof governmentsand internationalagencies in Washington,D.C., thatdrafteda "World Plan ofActionon the Ozone Layer." See Benedick,OzoneDiplomacy,p. 40. Panel of ClimateChange was set up bythe UNEP and WMO after 23. The Intergovernmental the passage of UN General Assembly Resolution 43/53, A/RES/43/53, 27 January1989, "Resolutionon theProtectionof the Global Climate." This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 183 Much of this negotiatingactivityis open to some formof public scrutiny, repeated roundsof nationalbureaucraticand politicalreviewand triggering revisionof tentativeaccommodationsamong affectedinterests.The treatyas is thereforelikelyto be based on finallysignedand presentedforratification considered and well-developedconceptionsof national interestthat have themselvesbeen shaped to some extentby the preparatoryand negotiating process. Treatymakingis not purelyconsensual,of course. Negotiationsare heavily affectedbythe structureof the internationalsystem,in whichsome statesare muchmorepowerfulthanothers.As noted,the Conventionof the Law of the Sea, the productof more than a decade of internationalnegotiations,was foundit unacceptable. derailedwhena new U.S. administration ultimately On the otherhand, a multilateralnegotiatingforumprovidesopportunities forweakerstatesto formcoalitionsand exploitblockingpositions.In thesame UN Conferenceon the Law of the Sea, the caucus of what were knownas "land-lockedand geographicallydisadvantagedstates,"whichincluded such unlikelycolleagues as Hungary,Switzerland,Austria, Uganda, Nepal, and Bolivia,had a crucialstrategicposition.The AssociationofSmall Island States, chaired by Vanuatu, played a similarrole in the global climatenegotiations. process leaves a Like domesticlegislation,the internationaltreaty-making interests.In sucha setting,not good deal ofroomforaccommodatingdivergent even the strongeststatewill be able to achieve all of its objectives,and some participantsmay have to settle for much less. The treatyis necessarilya compromise,"a bargainthat[has] been made."24Fromthepointofviewofthe particularinterestsof anystate,the outcomemayfallshortof the ideal. But if and witha practical theagreementis well-designed-sensible,comprehensible, eye to probable patternsof conduct and interaction-complianceproblems and enforcement issuesare likelyto be manageable.Ifissuesofnoncompliance and enforcement are endemic,the real problemis likelyto be thattheoriginal bargaindid not adequatelyreflectthe interestsof those thatwould be living underit,ratherthanmeredisobedience.25 stage may be It is true that a state's incentivesat the treaty-negotiating fromthoseitfaceswhenthetimeforcompliancerollsaround.Parties different on the givingend of the compromise,especially,mighthave reason to seek to escape the obligationstheyhave undertaken.Nevertheless,the veryact of makingcommitmentsembodied in an internationalagreementchanges the 24. Susan Strange,"Cave! Hic Dragones: A Critique of Regime Analysis,"in Stephen D. Press,1983), pp. 337-54; the Regimes(Ithaca, N.Y.: CornellUniversity Krasner,ed., International quotationis on p. 353. 25. Systemsin whichcompliancecan onlybe achieved throughextensiveuse of coercion are Sanctions:Orderin and unjust.See Michael Barkun,Law Without regardedas authoritarian rightly Press, 1968), p. (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Societiesand theWorldCommunity Primitive 62. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 184 InternationalOrganization calculus at the compliancestage,if onlybecause it generatesexpectationsof compliancein othersthatmustenterintotheequation. Moreover,althoughstatesmayknowtheycan violate theirtreatycommitmentsin a crunch,theydo notnegotiateagreementswiththeidea thattheycan bargainwillitself do so in routinesituations.Thus,theshape ofthesubstantive be affectedby the parties' estimatesof the costs and risks of their own complianceand expectationsabout thecomplianceof others.Essentialparties regulationsifthe prospectsfor maybe unwillingto accept or impose stringent complianceare doubtful.The negotiationwillnot necessarilycollapse on that account,however.The resultmaybe a looser,moregeneralengagement.Such outcome, an outcome is oftendeprecated as a lowest-common-denominator withwhatis reallyimportantlefton the cuttingroomfloor.But it maybe the seriousand concertedattentionto theproblem. beginningofincreasingly Finally, the treatythat comes into force does not remain static and Treatiesthatlastmustbe able to adapt to inevitablechangesin the unchanging. economic,technological,social, and politicalsetting.Treatiesmaybe formally amended, of course, or modifiedby the addition of a protocol,but these methods are slow and cumbersome.Since they are subject to the same ratification process as the originaltreaty,theycan be blocked or avoided by a dissatisfiedparty.As a result,treatylawyershave deviseda numberofwaysto deal withthe problemof adaptationwithoutseekingformalamendment.The simplestis thedeviceofvestingthepowerto "interpret"theagreementin some organ establishedby the treaty.The U.S. Constitution,afterall, has kept up with the times not primarilyby the amendingprocess but by the Supreme of its broad clauses. The InternationalMonetaryFund Court'sinterpretation (IMF) Agreementgivessuchpowerto theGoverningBoard,and numerouskey whetherdrawings questions-includingthe crucial issue of "conditionality," againstthefund'sresourcesmaybe conditionedon theeconomicperformance ofthedrawingmember-have been resolvedbythismeans.26 A numberof treatiesestablishauthorityto make regulationson technical mattersbyvote of the parties(usuallyby a special majority),whichare then bindingon all, thoughoftenwiththe rightto opt out. The InternationalCivil Aeronautics Organizationhas such power with respect to operational and In many regulatorytreaties, safetymattersin internationalair transport.27 "technical"mattersmaybe relegatedto an annexthatcan be alteredbyvoteof mechathe parties.28In sum,treatiescharacteristically containself-adjusting 26. Articlesof Agreementof the IMF, 27 December 1945, as amended, Article8, sec. 5, in Series(UNTS), vol. 2, Treatyno. 20 (New York: UnitedNations,1947),p. 39. UnitedNationsTreaty decision,see decisionno. 102-(52/11)13 February1952,"Selected Decisions For theconditionality oftheExecutiveDirectorsand Selected Documents,"p. 16. 27. Conventionon InternationalCivilAviation,7 December 1944,Article90, in UNTS, vol. 15, Treatyno. 102,1948,p. 295. Legal 28. Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, in International Materials,vol. 26, 1987,p. 1541,Article2(9) (signed 16 September1987 and enteredintoforce1 January1989; hereaftercited as Montreal Protocol) as amended, London Adjustmentand This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 185 nisms by which,over a significantrange, they can be and in practice are interestsoftheparties. commonlyadapted to respondto shifting Norms Treaties are acknowledgedto be legallybindingon the states that ratify In commonexperience,people, whetheras a resultof socializationor them.29 otherwise,acceptthattheyare obligatedto obeythelaw.30So itis withstates.It is oftensaid that the fundamentalnorm31of internationallaw is pacta sunt servanda(treatiesare to be obeyed).32In the United States and manyother countries,they become a part of the law of the land. Thus, a provision assentedentailsa legal containedin an agreementto whicha statehas formally a guideto action. obligationto obeyand is presumptively fora proposiIt seems almostsuperfluousto adduce evidenceor authority tion that is so deeply ingrainedin common understandingand so often reflectedin the speech of national leaders. Yet the realist argumentthat nationalactionsare governedentirelybycalculationofinterests(includingthe servedbya systemofrules)is essentiallya and predictability interestin stability denial of the operationof normativeobligationin internationalaffairs.This relations positionhas held thefieldforsome timein mainstreaminternational theory(as have closely related postulates in other positivistsocial science Amendmentsto the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, in Legal Materials,vol. 30, 1991,p. 537 (signed 29 June 1990 and enteredinto force7 International March 1991;hereaftercitedas London Amendments). 29. The Vienna Conventionon the Law of Treaties,signed23 May 1969 (enteredintoforceon 27 January1980), Article 2(1)(a), states that "'treaty' means an internationalagreement law,whetherembodiedin concludedbetweenStatesinwrittenformand governedbyinternational and whateveritsparticulardesignation." or in twoor morerelatedinstruments a singleinstrument See UN Doc. A/CONF. 39/27. 30. According to Young, "'obligation' encompasses incentivesto comply with behavioral whichstemfroma generalsense ofdutyand whichdo notreston explicitcalculations prescriptions role in compliancechoices." ofcostsand benefits.... Feelingsofobligationoftenplaya significant Moreover,"rules constitutean essentialfeatureof bureaucraciesand ... routinizedcompliance withrules is a deeply ingrainednormamong bureaucrats."See Young, Complianceand Public pp. 23 and 39. See also R. H. Fallon, "Reflectionson Dworkinand the Two Faces of Authority, Law," NotreDame Law Review,vol. 67, no. 3, 1992, pp. 553-85, summarizingH. L. A. Hart's concept of a law as a social rule: "From an internalpoint of view-that of an unalienated participantofthesocial lifeofthecommunity-asocial ruleis a standardthatis acceptedas a guide (p. 556); Rheinstein,Max Weberon to conductand a basis forcriticism,includingself-criticism" Rules,Norms,and Decisions: Law inEconomyand Society,pp. 349-56; and FriedrichV. Kratochwil, Relationsand DomesticAffairs On theConditionsofPracticaland Legal Reasoningin International Press,1989),pp. 15 and 95-129. (Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity 31. We use "norm" as a generictermincludingprinciples,precepts,standards,rules,and the like.For presentpurposes,it is adequate to thinkof legal normsas normsgeneratedbyprocesses bya legal system.CompareH. L. A. Hart,TheConceptofLaw (Oxford: recognizedas authoritative OxfordUniversity Press,1961). 32. The Vienna Conventionon the Law of Treaties,Article26, specifiesthat"everytreatyin forceis bindingupon the partiesto it and mustbe performedin good faith."See also chap. 30 of ArnoldDuncan McNair,TheLaw of Treaties(Oxford:ClarendonPress,1961),pp. 493-505. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 186 InternationalOrganization disciplines).33But it is increasinglybeing challenged by a growingbody of empiricalstudyand academicanalysis. Such scholarsas Elinor Ostromand Robert Ellicksonshow how relatively in containedcircumstances generateand securecompliance smallcommunities of a superveningsovereignauthoriwithnorms,evenwithoutthe intervention ty.34Others,like FrederickSchauer and FriedrichKratochwil,analyze how processes,whetheras "reasons foraction" normsoperate in decision-making JonElster,oftenregarded or in definingthemethodsand termsof discourse.35 as one of the mostpowerfulscholarsof the "rationalactor" school,saysin his most recent book, "I have come to believe that social norms provide an importantkind of motivationfor action that is irreducibleto rationalityor indeed to anyotherformofoptimizingmechanism."36 As applied to treatyobligations,thispropositionseems almostself-evident. For example: in the absence of the antiballisticmissile (ABM) treaty,the Soviet Union would have been legallyfree to build an ABM system.The exerciseof thisfreedomwould surelyhave posed seriousmilitaryand political In due course,the issuesforU.S. analysts,diplomats,and intelligenceofficers. UnitedStateswould have responded,witheitheritsownABM systemor some of an or politicalmove.The same act, the construction othersuitablemilitary ABM system,would be qualitativelydifferent, however,if it were done in violationofthespecificstipulationsoftheABM treaty.Transgressionofsucha fundamentalengagementwould triggernot a limitedresponse,but a hostile reactionacrossthe board,jeopardizingthe possibilityof cooperativerelations betweenthe partiesfora long timeto come. Outrage when solemncommitIt is unlikely mentsare treatedas "scraps of paper" is rootedin U.S. history.37 thatthiskindofreactionis unique to theUnitedStates. The strongestcircumstantialevidence for the sense of an obligationto complywithtreatiesis thecare thatstatestakein negotiatingand enteringinto them. It is not conceivable that foreignministriesand governmentleaders could devote time and energyon the scale theydo to preparing,drafting, 33. WilliamEskridge,Jr.,and G. Peller, "The New Public Law: Moderationas a Postmodern CulturalForm,"MichiganLaw Review89 (February1991),pp. 707-91. forCollectiveAction theCommons:TheEvolutionofInstitutions 34. See ElinorOstrom,Governing Law: How Press,1990); and RobertC. Ellickson,OrderWithout (Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity Press,1991). Neighbors SettleDisputes(Cambridge,Mass.: HarvardUniversity 35. See FrederickF. Schauer,PlayingbytheRules:A PhilosophicalExaminationof Rule-based in Law and Life (Oxford:ClarendonPress, 1991); Kratochwil,Rules,Normsand Decision-making Decisions;and SallyFalk Moore,Law as Process(London: Routledge& Kegan Paul, 1978). 36. JonElster,TheCementofSociety:A StudyofSocial Order(Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity Press, 1989), p. 15. See also MargaretLevi, Karen S. Cook, JodiA. O'Brien, and Howard Fay, pp. 1-16. "Introduction:The Limitsof Rationality,"in Cook and Levi, TheLimitsofRationality, 37. The quotationis fromGermanChancellorTheobald von Bethman-Hollweg'sremarkto the when Germanyinvaded in Britishambassadorabout the treatyguaranteeingBelgian neutrality Theobald von. For an example 1914.See EncyclopediaBritannica,14thed., s.v.Bethman-Hollweg, of the U.S. response, see the letter of ex-PresidentTheodore Roosevelt to BritishForeign SecretarySir Edward Greydated 22 January1915,quoted in Hans J.Morgenthau,PoliticsAmong Nations:TheStruggle forPowerand Peace, 4thed. (New York: Knopf,1967). This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 187 negotiating,and monitoringtreatyobligationsunless there is an assumption oughtto and does constrainthe state's thatenteringintoa treatycommitment own freedomof action and an expectationthat the other parties to the agreementwill feel similarlyconstrained.The care devoted to fashioninga treatyprovisionno doubt reflectsthe desire to limitthe state's own commitIn eithercase, the mentas muchas to make evasionby othersmore difficult. enterprisemakes sense onlyon the assumptionthat,as a generalrule,states acknowledgean obligationto complywithagreementstheyhave signed. These attitudesare not confinedto foreignoffices.U.S. Departmentof Defense testimonyduringthe cold war repeatedlysounded the theme that armscontroltreatieswiththe Soviet Union were importantin providingthe the Pentagon needed for sound stabilityof expectationsand predictability States and other Westerncountries,the In the United strategicplanning.38 powerin generalis subjectto law principlethatthe exerciseof governmental lends additionalforceto an ethos of national compliancewithinternational And, of course, appeals to legal obligationsare a staple of undertakings.39 foreignpolicydebate and of the continuouscritiqueand defense of foreign policy actions that account for so much of diplomatic interchangeand politicalcommentary. international All thisarguesthatstates,like othersubjectsof legal rules,operateundera sense ofobligationto conformtheirconductto governingnorms. behavior Varietiesofnoncomplying If the state's decisionwhetheror not to complywitha treatyis the resultof a calculationof costs and benefits,as the realistsassert,the implicationis that noncompliance is the premeditatedand deliberate violation of a treaty obligation.Our backgroundassumptiondoes not exclude thatsuch decisions the underlying mayoccurfromtimeto time,especiallywhenthecircumstances Or, as in the area ofinternational originalbargainhave changedsignificantly.40 human rights,it may happen that a state will enter into an international but have little agreementto appease a domesticor internationalconstituency of General David C. Jones,chairmanof theJointChiefsof 38. See, forexample,the testimony Staff,beforethe U.S. Senate Committeeon ForeignRelationson the StrategicArmsLimitation Service,S381-2479, 9 July1979. Talks (SALT) II treaty,CongressionalInformation 39. It is notclear,however,thatdemocraciesare morelaw-abiding.See Diggsv. Shultz,470 F. 2d scheme,Congresscan denouncetreatiesifit sees 461 (D.C. Cir. 1972): "Under our constitutional can do about it.We consider fitto do so, and thereis nothingtheotherbranchesofthegovernment thatis preciselywhatCongresshas done in thiscase" (pp. 466-67). 40. Internationallaw recognizesa limitedscope forabrogationof an agreementin such a case. See the Vienna Conventionon the Law of Treaties,Article62. Generally,however,the possibility or even of change is accommodatedby provisionsfor amendment,authoritativeinterpretation, withdrawalfromthe agreement.See, forexample,the withdrawalprovisionof the ABM Treaty, Article25(2), or the LimitedTest Ban Treaty,Article4. None of these actionsposes an issue of violationof legal obligations,thoughtheymayweakenthe regimeofwhichthetreatyis a part. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 188 InternationalOrganization however, withforeignaffairs, it out. A passingfamiliarity intentionof carrying does a treatyviolationfallintothecategoryofa suggeststhatonlyinfrequently oflegal obligation.4' willfulflouting At thesame time,generalobservationas well as detailedstudiesoftenreveal departuresfromestablishedtreaty whatappear or are alleged to be significant norms.If these are not deliberateviolations,whatexplainsthisbehavior?We infrequently recognizedin discussionsof complidiscussthreecircumstances, ance, thatin our view oftenlie at the root of behaviorthatmay seem prima and indeterminacy of treaty facieto violatetreatyrequirements:(1) ambiguity language,(2) limitationson thecapacityofpartiesto carryout theirundertakings, and (3) the temporaldimensionof the social and economic changes treaties. contemplatedbyregulatory These factorsmightbe considered"causes" of noncompliance.But froma to thinkofthemas "defenses"-matters lawyer'sperspective,it is illuminating a prima facie case of breach. A or or extenuate put forthto excuse justify is subject to the overriding all other issues of compliance, defense, like in If theplea is faith the of of performance treatyobligations.42 obligation good accepted, the conductis not a violation,strictlyspeaking.Of course, in the internationalsphere,these charges and defenses are rarelymade or determinedin a judicial tribunal.However,diplomaticpracticein otherforumscan perhaps,the be understoodin termsof the same basic structure,reflecting, legal framework. pervasivenessoftheunderlying Ambiguity Treaties,like other canonical statementsof legal rules,frequentlydo not providedeterminateanswersto specificdisputedquestions.43Language often is unable to capture meaningwithprecision.Treatydraftersdo not foresee manyof the possible applications-let alone theircontextualsettings.Issues thatare foreseenoftencannotbe resolvedat thetimeoftreatynegotiationand are sweptundertherugwitha formulathatcan mean whateach partywantsit 41. Keohane surveyedtwo hundredyearsof U.S. foreignrelationshistoryand identifiedonly inwhichtherewas a serious cases of "inconvenient"commitments interesting" forty "theoretically issue of whetheror not to comply.See the chapterentitled"Commitmentsand Compromise,"in Robert 0. Keohane, "The Impact of Commitmentson AmericanForeignPolicy,"manuscript, 1993,pp. 1-49. 42. See Vienna Conventionon the Law of Treaties,Article26; Lassa Oppenheim,International Law: A Treatise,8thed., ed. H. Lauterpacht(London: Longmans,1955), p. 956; and McNair, The Law of Treaties, p. 465. 43. See Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, "Living Under a Treaty Regime: and Adaptation,"in Antonia Handler Chayes and Paul Doty, eds., Compliance,Interpretation, ManagingtheABM TreatyRegimeintothe21st Century(Washington,D.C.: DefendingDeterrence: Pergamon-Brassey's InternationalDefense Publishers,1989), chap. 11. See also Young, Compliin the contextof pp. 106-8, whichdiscusses issues of interpretation ance and PublicAuthority, are deliberate attemptsat "evasion" of obligation.We argue that alternativeinterpretations frequently invokedin good faith.No doubtin practicethereis oftensome ofboth. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 189 to mean. Economic,technological,scientific, and even politicalcircumstances change. All these inescapable incidentsof the effortto formulaterules to withinwhichitis governfutureconductfrequently producea zone ofambiguity difficult to saywithprecisionwhatis permittedand whatis forbidden. Of course, treatylanguage, like other legal language, comes in varying degreesof specificity.44 The broaderand moregeneralthe language,thewider the ambitof permissibleinterpretations to whichit givesrise. Yet thereare frequently reasonsforchoosinga more generalformulation of the obligation: the political consensus may not supportmore precision,or, as withcertain provisionsof the U.S. Constitution,it may be wiser to define a general direction,to tryto informa process,ratherthan seek to foreseein detail the circumstancesin whichthe words will be broughtto bear. If there is some the confidencein thosewho are to applythe rules,a broaderstandarddefining in realizingitthana series generalpolicybehindthelaw maybe moreeffective of detailed regulations.The North AtlanticTreaty has proved remarkably durable,thoughitslanguageis remarkably general:"In ordermoreeffectively to achieve the objectivesof thisTreaty,the Parties,separatelyand jointly,by means of continuousand effective self-helpand mutualaid, willmaintainand developtheirindividualand collectivecapacityto resistarmedattack."45 In the arms controlfield, the United States has opted for increasingly detailed agreementson the groundthat theyreduce interpretative leeways. The 1963 LimitedTest Ban Treaty(LTBT), the firstbilateral arms control agreementbetweenthe United States and the SovietUnion, consistedof five articlescoveringtwo or three pages. The StrategicArms Reduction Treaty (START) signedin 1989is thesize of a telephonebook. Detail also has itsdifficulties. It is vulnerableto themaximexpressio uniusest exclusioalterius (to expressone thingis to exclude the other). As in the U.S. Internal Revenue Code, precisiongenerates loopholes, necessitatingsome The corpus procedureforcontinuousrevisionand authoritative interpretation. of thelaw maybecome so complexand unwieldyas to be understandable(and manipulable)by onlya small coterieof experts.The complexitiesof the rule when thingsare systemmay give rise to shortcutsthat reduce inefficiencies whenthepoliticalatmospheredarkens. goingwell butmaylead to friction In short,moreoftenthannottherewillbe a considerablerangewithinwhich parties may reasonablyadopt differing positionsas to the meaning of the institutions obligation.In domesticlegal systems,courtsor otherauthoritative are empoweredto resolvesuchdisputesabout meaningas betweenpartiesin a 44. See Duncan Kennedy,"Form and Substance in PrivateLaw Adjudication,"HarvardLaw Review89 (June 1976), pp. 1685-788; Ronald Dworkin,"The Model of Rules," University of Chicago Law Review35 (Autumn 1967), pp. 14-16; Louis Kaplow, Rules VersusStandards:An Economic Analysis,Discussion Paper no. 108, Programin Law and Economics, Harvard Law School,April1992. 45. NorthAtlanticTreaty,Article3, 63 stat.2241 (signed4 April1949and enteredintoforce24 August1949), in UNTS, vol. 34, no. 541, 1949,p. 243. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 190 InternationalOrganization particularcase. The internationallegal systemcan providetribunalsto settle such questionsif the partiesconsent.But compulsorymeans of authoritative disputeresolution-by adjudicationor otherwise-are not generallyavailable maynotarise level.46Moreover,theissue ofinterpretation at theinternational dispute. In such cases, it remains in the contextof an adversarialtwo-party open to a state,in the absence of bad faith,to maintainitspositionand tryto convincetheothers. In manysuch disputes,a consensusmayexistor emergeamongknowledgeIn manyothers,however, able professionalsaboutthelegal rightsand wrongs.47 theissue willremaincontestable.Althoughone partymaychargeanotherwith violationand deploylegionsof internationallawyersin itssupport,a detached observer often cannot readily conclude that there is indeed a case of noncompliance,at least in the absence of "bad faith."The numerousalleged violationsof armscontroltreatieswithwhichthe Soviet Union was annually charged were, with the exception of the radar at Krasnoyarskin Siberia, contestable in that sense.48In fact, it can be argued that if there is no arbiter(and even sometimeswhenthereis), discourseamongthe authoritative wayof parties,oftenin the hearingof a widerpublicaudience,is an important themeaningoftherules. clarifying overa considerablerange, In theface oftreatynormsthatare indeterminate even conscientiouslegal advice may not avoid issues of compliance.At the extreme,a statemayconsciouslyseek to discoverthe limitsof itsobligationby testingitstreatypartners'responses.Therewas speculationthatthepatternof Soviet deploymentof Pechora-typeradars prior to the constructionof the was an attemptto testthelimitsoftheradar phased arrayradarat Krasnoyarsk provisionoftheABM treaty.The Pechora siteswerelocated as far deployment as fourhundredkilometersfromtheborder,arguably"on theperipheryof the national territory," as required by the treaty-but also arguablynot.49The to failureoftheUnitedStatesto reactwas thoughtbysome to have contributed the decisionto site Krasnoyarskeven furtherfromthe nearestborder-some sevenhundredkilometers. 46. Abram Chayes and Antonia Handler Chayes, "Compliance WithoutEnforcement:State Journal7 (July1991),pp. 311-31. See also Louis BehaviorUnder RegulatoryTreaties,"Negotiation B. Sohn,"Peaceful SettlementofDisputes in Ocean Conflicts:Does UN Clause 3 PointtheWay?" examines Problems46 (Spring 1983), pp. 195-200. Our work-in-progress Law and Contemporary signsofa recenttrendtowardmoreformaldisputeresolutionproceduresin suchareas as trade,the law of the sea, and others.The currentemphasis in the United States on alternativedispute judicial settlementmaynotbe an entirelyunmixedblessing, resolutionsuggeststhatinternational however. University 47. Oscar Schachter,"The InvisibleCollege of InternationalLawyers,"Northwestern Law Review,vol. 72, no. 2, 1977,pp. 217-26. 48. Gloria Duffy,Complianceand theFutureofArmsControl:Reportofa ProjectSponsoredbythe andArmsControl(Cambridge,Mass: Ballinger,1988),pp. 31-60. Security International Centerfor 49. See Antonia Handler Chayes and Abram Chayes, "From Law Enforcementto Dispute Settlement:A New Approach to Arms Control Verificationand Compliance," International 14 (Spring1990),pp. 147-64;and Duffy,Complianceand theFutureofArmsControl,p. 107. Security This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 191 JusticeOliverWendellHolmes said, "The verymeaningofa linein thelaw is maycome as close to it as youcan ifyou do notpass it."50 thatyouintentionally Nevertheless,deliberatetestingof the kinddescribedabove mightin ordinary withgood faithobservationof the circumstances be thoughtto be inconsistent treatyobligation. On the other hand, in the early years of the Interim Agreementon LimitationofStrategicArms(SALT I) theUnitedStatesplayed a similargame by erectingopaque environmentalsheltersover missilesilos "notto use deliberate work,despitethetreatyundertaking duringmodification bynationaltechnicalmeans."'51 concealmentmeasureswhichimpedeverification betweenthe United States In the contextof the long cold war confrontation and the Soviet Union, a certainamountof such probingseems to have been withintheexpectationsoftheparties.52 is to design Perhaps a moreusual wayof operatingin the zone of ambiguity others to argue the obligation,leaving the activity to complywiththe letterof about the spirit.The General Agreementon Tarrifsand Trade (GATT) prohibitsa partyfromimposingquotas on imports.When Japaneseexportsof steel to the United States generatedpressuresfromU.S. domesticproducers that the Nixon administrationcould no longer contain,U.S. trade lawyers inventedthe "voluntaryrestraintagreement,"under whichprivateJapanese producersagreed to limittheirU.S. sales.53The United States imposed no officialquota, althoughthe Japanese producersmightwell have anticipated some such action had theynot "volunteered."Did the arrangementviolate GATT obligations? ariseas an adjunct Questionsofcompliancewithtreatyobligationsordinarily to activitydesigned to achieve an objectivethat the actor regardsas important.54Lawyersmaybe consultedor mayintervene.Decisions about how the oflegal desiredprogramis to be carriedout emergefroma complexinteraction and policyanalysisthatgeneratesitsownsubrulesand precedents.The process of thatin a classicU.S. bureaucracyor corporation. is reminiscent 280 U.S. 390 (1920), p. 395. 50. SuperiorOil Co. v. Mississippi, 51. InterimAgreementof Limitationof StrategicArms (SALT I), Article 5(3). See also Special Report no. 55, Bureau of Public Affairs,U.S. CompliancewithSALT I Agreements, DepartmentofState,July1979,p. 4. The issue was finallyresolvedbyArticle15(3) of theSALT II ballisticmissilesilo launchersof sheltersthat treaty,prohibitingthe use over intercontinental bynationaltechnicalmeans. impedeverification law. 52. Unilateralassertionis a traditionalwayofvindicatingclaimed"rights"in international In the springof 1986,U.S. forcesengagedin twosuch exercises,one offthe SovietBlack Sea coast in the"exerciseofthe rightof innocentpassage" (The New YorkTimes,19 March 1986,p. Al) and watersand the theotherin the airspaceovertheGulfofSidra,whichLibyaconsidersitsterritorial United States does not. The Black Sea maneuverwas concluded withnothingmore than some bumpingbetweenU.S. and Soviet ships,but in the Gulf of Sidra, U.S. aircraftsank two Libyan missiles.See ChicagoTribune,19 March 1986,sec. 1,p. 10; patrolvesselsthathad firedantiaircraft LosAngelesTimes,26 March 1986,p. I1; and LosAngelesTimes,27 March 1986,p. I1. 506 F2d 136 (D.C. Cir. 1974). 53. ConsumersUnionv. Kissinger, 54. Chayesand Chayes,"LivingUnder a TreatyRegime,"pp. 197 and 200. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 192 InternationalOrganization was bent on developinga spaceFor example,the Reagan administration based ABM system.Congressinsistedthatresearchand testingshouldconform of the ABM treaty,whichprohibitedthe to the "traditional"interpretation testingof ABM "components," rather than the administration's"broad whichwould have permittedfulldevelopmentand testingof a interpretation," space-based ABM system.To ensure that it remained withinthe treaty establisheda special legal unit in the Defense constraint,the administration Department,nominallyindependentof the StrategicDefense Initiative(SDI) organization,to revieweach proposed testagainstan intricateset of internal rules.The unitsatisfieditselfthatthe itemsas testedwould not be capable of as ABM "components,"usuallybecause of power limitationsor performing knownto thetestersbutnotnecessarilyobservable otherdesigncharacteristics applied to the testingprogram, byoutsiders.These ruleswere conscientiously maintained thatit had stayedwithinthe and on thatbasis the administration No Soviet lawyerhad of the treaty.55 bounds of the traditionalinterpretation were classified),and it is not seen or approvedtherules,however(indeed,they Soviet testsas compliantif have accepted States would likelythatthe United not observable. were externally thelimiting designelements Even in thestark,highpoliticsoftheCuban MissileCrisis,StateDepartment lawyersargued that the United States could not lawfullyreact unilaterally, sincetheSovietemplacementofmissilesin Cuba did notamountto an "armed to triggerthe rightof self-defensein Article51 of the UN attack" sufficient Charter. Use of force in response to the missileswould only be lawfulif approvedbythe Organizationof AmericanStates (OAS). Thoughit wouldbe foolishto contendthatthelegal positiondeterminedPresidentJohnKennedy's decision, there is little doubt that the asserted need for advance OAS authorizationforanyuse of forcecontributedto the mosaic of argumentation thatled to the decisionto respondinitiallybymeans of the quarantinerather than an air strike. Robert Kennedy said later, "It was the vote of the Organizationof AmericanStates thatgave a legal basis forthe quarantine... and changed our position from that of an outlaw acting in violation of internationallaw intoa countryactingin accordancewithtwentyallies legally This was the advicehe had heardfromhislawyers, theirposition."56 protecting and it was a thoroughly defensibleposition.Nevertheless,manyinternational lawyersin theUnitedStatesand elsewheredisagreedbecause theythoughtthe withtheUN Charter.57 actionwas inconsistent 55. For example,the so-called Foster box rules serveto distinguishbetween strategicmissile reentryvehicles,whichare prohibitedby the ABM treaty,and tacticalmissilereentryvehicles, such as velocityand reentryangle not whichare not,on the basis of performancecharacteristics mentionedanywherein the ABM treaty.See AshtonB. Carter,"Limitationsand Allowancesfor Deterrence, pp. 132-37. Space Based Weapons," in Chayesand Doty,Defending Days (New York: W. M. Norton,1971),p. 99. 56. RobertKennedy,Thirteen 57. See, forexample,QuincyWright,"The Cuban Quarantine,"AmericanJoumalof IntemationalLaw 57 (July1963),pp. 546-65; JamesS. Campbell,"The Cuban Crisisand theUN Charter: Law Review16 (December 1963), pp. 160-76; An Analysisof the UnitedStates Position"Stanford This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 193 Capability Accordingto classical internationallaw, legal rightsand obligationsrun betweenstates.A treatyis an agreementamongstates58and is an undertaking bythemas to theirfutureconduct.The objectoftheagreementis to affectstate behavior.This simplerelationshipbetweenagreementand relevantbehavior continuesto existformanytreaties.The LTBT is such a treaty.It prohibits nucleartestingin the atmosphere,in outer space, or underwater.Only states conduct nuclear weapons tests,so only state behavior is implicatedin the itsown actions,withoutmore,determines The state,bygoverning undertaking. or not.Moreover,thereis no doubt whetheritwillcomplywiththeundertaking about the state'scapacityto do whatit has undertaken.Everystate,no matter or limiteditsresources,can refrainfromconducting howprimitive itsstructure atmosphericnucleartests. Even when onlystate behavioris at stake,the issue of capacitymay arise obligation.In the 1980s it may have when the treatyinvolvesan affirmative been a fairassumptionthatthe SovietUnion had thecapabilityto carryout its undertakingto destroycertainnuclear weapons as requiredby the START agreement.In the 1990s,thatassumptionwas threatenedbytheemergenceofa congeriesof successorstatesin place of the SovietUnion,manyof whichmay not have the necessarytechnicalknowledgeor materialresourcesto do the job.59 regulatorytreaties.Much of the The problemis pervasivein contemporary workof the InternationalLabor Organization(ILO) fromthe beginninghas been devoted to improvingits members' domestic labor legislation and enforcement.The currentspate of environmentalagreementsposes the in acute form.Such treaties formallyare among states, and the difficulty obligationsare cast as stateobligations-forexample,to reduce sulfurdioxide (SO2) emissionsby 30 percentagainsta certainbaseline. Here, however,the real object of the treatyis not to affectstate behaviorbut to regulatethe behavior of nonstate actors carryingout activitiesthat produce SO2generatingpower,drivingautomobiles,and the like. The ultimateimpacton the relevantprivatebehaviordepends on a complex series of intermediate decree or legislationfollowed steps.It will normallyrequirean implementing In the state will have to essence, administrative detailed regulations. by establishand enforcea full-blowndomesticregimedesigned to secure the necessaryreductionin emissions. and WilliamL. Standard,"The UnitedStatesQuarantineofCuba and theRule ofLaw,"American BarAssociationJoumal49 (August1963),pp. 744-48. 58. Vienna Conventionon theLaw ofTreaties,Article2(1)(a). 59. Kurt M. Campbell, Ashton B. Carter, Steven E. Miller, and Charles A. Zraket, Soviet SovietUnion,CSIA Studies in NuclearFission: Controlof theNuclearArsenalin a Disintegrating Cambridge,Mass., November1991,pp. 24, 25, InternationalSecurity,no. 1, HarvardUniversity, and 108. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 194 InternationalOrganization The state maybe "in compliance"when it has taken the formallegislative and administrative steps,and, despitethe vagariesof legislativeand domestic politics,it is perhaps appropriateto hold it accountableforfailureto do so. Quite apart frompolitical will, however,the constructionof an effective domesticregulatoryapparatus is not a simple or mechanicaltask. It entails and technicaljudgment,bureaucraticcapability, choicesand requiresscientific and fiscalresources.Even developed Westernstates have not been able to constructsuch systemswith confidencethat theywill achieve the desired objective.60 The deficitin domesticregulatorycapacityis not limitedto environmental agreements.The nonproliferationtreaty (NPT) is supported by a sideagreementamongnuclear-capablestatesnot to exportsensitivetechnologyto The agreementis implementedbynationalexportcontrol nonweaponsstates.61 regulations.The UN-InternationalAtomic EnergyAgency (IAEA) inspectionsin Iraq, however,revealed thatthe Iraqi nuclearweapons programwas able to draw on suppliersin the United States and West Germany,among others, where governmentalwill and abilityto control such exports are presumablyat theirhighest. Althoughthere are surely differencesamong developing countries,the characteristic situationis a severe dearthof the requisitescientific, technical, bureaucratic,and financialwherewithalto build effectivedomesticenforcementsystems.Four yearsafterthe MontrealProtocolwas signed,onlyabout halfthe memberstateshad compliedfullywiththe requirementof the treaty The Conferthattheyreportannualchlorofluorocarbon (CFC) consumption.62 ence of the Parties promptlyestablishedan Ad Hoc Group of Expertson states Reporting,whichrecognizedthatthe greatmajorityof the nonreporting were developingcountriesthatforthemostpartwere simplyunable to comply withouttechnicalassistancefromthetreatyorganization.63 The MontrealProtocolis the firsttreatyunderwhichthe partiesundertake financialassistance to defraythe incrementalcosts of to providesignificant compliancefordevelopingcountries.The same issue figuredon a muchlarger LinkingNationaland Interna60. KennethHanf,"DomesticatingInternationalCommitments: tionalDecision-making,"preparedfora meetingentitledManagingForeignPolicyIssues Under ConditionsofChange,Helsinki,July1992. of Nuclear Weapons, 21 U.S.T. 483 (1970) (signed 1 July 61. Treatyon the Non-proliferation Legal Materials,vol. 7, 1968,p. 809. 1968 and enteredintoforce5 March 1970), inIntemational 62. See Reportof the Secretariaton the Reportingof Data bythe Partiesin Accordancewith Article7 of the MontrealProtocol,UNEP/OzL.Pro.3/5, 23 May 1991,pp. 6-12 and 22-24; and Addendum,UNEP/OzL.Pro3/5/Add.1,19 June1991. oftheAd Hoc Group ofExperts,see ReportoftheSecond Meetingof 63. For theestablishment the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, UNEP/ OzL.Pro.2/3,Decision 2/9,29 June1990,p. 15. At itsfirstmeetingin December 1990,theAd Hoc Group of Expertsconcludedthatcountries"lack knowledgeand technicalexpertisenecessaryto foraddressing provideor collect"therelevantdata and made a detailedseriesofrecommendations theproblem.See ReportoftheFirstMeetingoftheAd Hoc Group ofExpertson theReportingof Data, UNEP/OzL.Pro/WG.2/1/4,7 December 1990. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 195 scale in the negotiationsfora global climatechangeconventionand in theUN Conferenceon Environmentand Development,held in Brazil in June 1992. The last wordhas surelynot been spokenin theseforums,and the problemis agreements. notconfinedto environmental The temporal dimension The regulatorytreatiesthat are our major concernare, characteristically, problemarea of a regimeformanaginga majorinternational legal instruments over time.64Significantchanges in social or economic systemsmandated by regulatorytreaties take time to accomplish.Thus, a cross section at any particularmomentin time may give a misleadingpicture of the state of compliance.Wise treatydraftersrecognizeat the negotiatingstage thatthere willbe a considerabletimelag afterthe treatyis concludedbeforesome or all of the parties can bringthemselvesinto compliance.Thus moderntreaties, fromthe IMF Agreementin 1945 to the Montreal Protocol in 1987, have provided for transitionalarrangementsand made allowances for special Nevertheless,whetheror not the treatyprovidesfor it, a circumstances.65 willbe necessary. periodof transition Similarly,if the regime is to persist over time, adaptation to changing mixof regulawill requirea shifting circumstances conditionsand underlying to whichstateand individualbehaviorcannotinstantaneously toryinstruments respond. Often the originaltreatyis onlythe firstin a series of agreements addressed to the issue-area.Even the START agreementto reduce nuclear arsenalscontemplatesa processextendingoversevenyears,bywhichtimeit is reductionswillhave been mandated.66 expectedthatnew and further Activistsin all fieldslament that the treatyprocess tends to settle on a (or universal basis. But the driveforuniversality least-common-denominator membershipin the particularregionof concern)maynecessitateaccommodationto theresponsecapabilityofstateswithlargedeficitsinfinancial,technical, or bureaucraticresources.A commonsolutionis to startwitha lowobligational ante and increasethe level of regulationas experiencewiththe regimegrows. 64. The now-classicaldefinitionof an internationalregime appears in Krasner,"Structural Causes and Regime Consequences," p. 2: "Regimes are sets of implicitor explicitprinciples, proceduresaround whichactors' expectationsconvergein a norms,rules,and decision-making given area of internationalrelations." Regime theoristsfindit hard to say the "L-word" but law is all about, procedures"are whatinternational "principles,norms,rules,and decision-making and it is apparentfromtheirworkthatformallegal norms,mostoftenembodiedin treaties,are an elementin mostofthephenomenaofinterestto them. important structural 65. See ArticlesofAgreementof the InternationalMonetaryFund,Article14,in UNTS, vol. 2, 1945,p. 1501; and MontrealProtocol,Article5. 66. Under START, the agreed reductionsin strategicnuclearweapons are to take place overa seven-yearperiod divided into three phases of three,two, and two years. See U.S. Congress, BetweentheUnitedStatesand theUnionofSovietSocialistRepublicson theReduction Senate, Treaty 102dCong.,1stsess., 1991,S. TreatyDoc. 102-20,Article OffensiveArms, ofStrategic and Limitation 2. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 196 InternationalOrganization strategyadopted in a number of contemporary The convention-protocol thisconception. regimesexemplifies environmental The Vienna Conventionon the Protectionof the Ozone Layer, signed in 1985, containedno substantiveobligationsbut requiredonlythatthe parties "in accordance with the means at their disposal and their capabilities" exchangeand in harmonizingdomestic cooperatein researchand information Two policieson activitieslikelyto have an adverseeffecton the ozone layer.67 of on on the destructive effect CFCs yearslater,as scientificconsensusjelled a was for 50 Montreal Protocol providing negotiated, the ozone layer,the percentreductionfrom1986 levelsof CFC consumptionbytheyear2000.68By June1990,the partiesagreedto a completephaseoutbythe above date and to chemicalcompounds.69 regulatea numberofotherozone-destroying A similarsequence marksthe Conventionon Long-RangeTransboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP).70 It began with a general agreementto cooperate signedin 1979,was followedbya protocolimposinglimitson SO2 emissionsin 1985,71and then by anotherimposinglimitson nitrogenoxides, whichwas signedat Sofia in October 1988.72The patternhas a long pedigree,extending back to the ILO, the firstof the modern internationalregulatoryagencies, or draft whose membersagreed in 1921 onlyto "bringthe recommendation[s] 67. Vienna Conventionfor the Protectionof the Ozone Layer (signed 22 March 1985 and enteredintoforce22 September1988; hereaftercitedas Vienna Ozone Convention),Article2(2), Legal Materials,vol. 26, 1986,p. 1529. inIntemational 68. MontrealProtocol,Article2(4). Annex1,Articles2A(5) and 2B(3). 69. London Amendments, 70. Conventionon Long-RangeTransboundaryAir Pollution(signed 13 November1979 and enteredintoforce16 March 1983),inIntemationalLegal Materials,vol. 18, 1979,p. 1442. 71. Protocol to the 1979 Conventionon Long-Range TransboundaryAir Pollution on the Reductionof SulphurEmissionsor Their TransboundaryFluxes by at Least 30 Percent(signed8 July1985), UN Doc. ECE/EB.AIR/12, reproducedin IntemationalLegal Materials,vol. 27, May 1988,pp. 698-714; see especiallyp. 707. 72. Protocolto the 1979 Conventionon Long-RangeTransboundaryAir PollutionConcerning the Controlof Emissionsof NitrogenOxides or Their TransboundaryFluxes (signed 31 October 1988 and enteredintoforce14 February1991), UNEP/GC.16/Inf.4,p. 169. Additionalprotocols to theoriginalconventionare theProtocolto the 1979Conventionon Long-RangeTransboundary Air Pollution on Long-Term Financing of the Co-operative Program for Monitoringand Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmissionof Air Pollutantsin Europe (signed 28 September Legal Materials,vol. 27, March 1988, 1984),UN Doc. EB.AIR/AC.1/4, reproducedinIntemational pp. 698-714 (see especiallyp. 701); and the Protocol Concerningthe Controlof Emissionsof Volatile Organic Compounds or Their TransboundaryFluxes (signed November1991), reproduced in IntemationalLegal Materials,vol. 31, May 1992, pp. 568-611. See also the Barcelona Conventionforthe Protectionof the MediterraneanSea AgainstPollution,in IntemationalLegal Materials,vol. 15, 1976, p. 290, whichwas accompanied by the Protocol for the Preventionof Pollutionof the MediterraneanSea byDumpingfromShips and Aircraft,UNEP/GC.16.Inf.4,p. 130,and the ProtocolConcerningCo-operationin CombatingPollutionof the MediterraneanSea by Oil and Other HarmfulSubstancesin Cases of Emergency,UNEP/GC.16/Inf.4,p. 132. The Protocolforthe Protectionof the MediterraneanSea AgainstPollutionforLand-based Sources, UNEP/GC.16/Inf.4,p. 134,followedin 1980; the land-basedsourcesprotocolcontemplatesthat pollutionwillbe eliminatedin accordancewith"standardsand timetables"to be agreed to bythe parties in the future (see Article 5[2]). The Protocol ConcerningMediterraneanSpecially ProtectedAreas (UNEP/GC.16/Inf.4,p. 136) was signedat Geneva in 1982. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 197 or authoriconvention[s][preparedby the organization]beforethe authority of legislation for the enactment tieswithinwhose competencethe matterlies, and for forum drafting then became the or other action."73The ILO on therights propagatinga seriesofspecificconventionsand recommendations foradoptionbytheparties. oflabor and conditionsof employment The effortto protecthumanrightsbyinternationalagreementmaybe seen as an extreme case of time lag between undertakingand performance. Although the major human rightsconventionshave been widely ratified, complianceleaves muchto be desired.It is apparentthatsome statesadhered withoutanyseriousintentionof abidingby them.But it is also truethateven expectationsabout compliance partiescommittedto the treatieshad different than with most other regulatorytreaties. Indeed, the Helsinki Final Act, containingimportanthumanrightsprovisionsapplicableto EasternEurope, is byitstermsnotlegallybinding.74 Even so, it is a mistake to call these treaties merely"aspirational" or system,but To be sure,theyembody"ideals" of the international "hortatory." treaties,theywere designedto initiatea processthatover likeotherregulatory time,perhapsa long time,would bringbehaviorintogreatercongruencewith those ideals. These expectationshave not been whollydisappointed.The vast amountof public and privateeffortdevotedto enforcingthese agreementsnotalwaysinvain-evinces theirobligationalcontent.Moreover,thelegitimatwas an importantcatalystof the revolutions of these instruments ingauthority of the 1980s against authoritarianregimes in Latin America and Eastern Europe and continuesto sparkdemandsfordemocraticpoliticselsewherein theworld. Acceptablelevelsofcompliance The foregoingsectionidentifiedand advanceda rangeofmattersthatmightbe putforwardbytheindividualactorin defenseor excuseofa particularinstance ofdeviantconduct.Fromtheperspectiveofthesystemas a whole,however,the normlike a highwayspeed For a simpleprohibitory centralissue is different. limit,it is in principlea simple matterto determinewhetherany particular organizadriveris in compliance.Yet mostcommunitiesand law enforcement comfortablewitha situationin tionsin the United States seem to be perfectly whichthe average speed on interstatehighwaysis perhaps ten miles above the limit.Even in individualcases, the enforcingofficeris not likelyto pursue a driver operating within that zone. The fundamentalproblem for the 73. Constitutionof the InternationalLabor Organization,11 April 1919,Article405, 49 stat. 2722. 74. Conferenceon Securityand Cooperationin Europe, Final Act (1 August1975), Article10, Legal Materials,vol. 14, 1975,p. 1292. inIntemational This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 198 InternationalOrganization systemis not how to induce all driversto obey the speed limitbut how to treaty containdeviancewithinacceptablelevels.75So, too,itis forinternational obligations. "An acceptablelevelofcompliance"is notan invariantstandard.The matter is furthercomplicatedbecause manylegal normsare not like the speed limit thatpermitsan on-offjudgmentas to whetheran actoris in compliance.As noted above, questions of compliance are often contestable and call for subjectiveevaluation.What is an acceptable complex,subtle,and frequently level of compliancewill shiftaccordingto the typeof treaty,the context,the exactbehaviorinvolved,and overtime. It would seem, forexample,thatthe acceptable level of compliancewould varywiththe significanceand cost of the reliance that parties place on the others' performance.76 On this basis, treaties implicatingnational security would demand strictcompliancebecause the stakesare so high,and to some extentthatpredictionis borne out by experience.Yet even in thisarea, some departuresseem to be tolerable. In thecase of the NPT, indicationsof deviantbehaviorbypartieshave been of dealt withseverely.In the 1970s,U.S. pressuresresultedin the termination programsto constructreprocessingfacilitiesin South Korea and Taiwan.77 pressureswas mountedagainstNorth Recently,a menuof evenmorestringent Korea, whichultimatelysignedan IAEA safeguardagreementand submitted to inspection.78 The inspectionand destructionrequirementsplaced on Iraq underUN SecurityCouncilresolution687 are,in one sense,an extremecase of thisseverity towarddeviationbyNPT parties. Althoughover 130 statesare partiesto the NPT, the treatyis not universal, and some nonpartieshave acquired or are seekingnuclearweapons capabiliholdouts,compliancewiththeNPT bytheparties ty.79 Despite theseimportant remainshigh.In fact,in recentyearsprominentnonparties-includingArgentina,Brazil,and SouthAfrica-have eitheradheredto thetreatyor announced Even therecalcitrant nonpartieshave not thattheywillcomplywithitsnorms.80 p. 109. 75. Young,Complianceand PublicAuthority, 76. Charles Lipson, "Why Are Some InternationalAgreements Informal,"International 45 (Autumn1991),pp. 495-538. Organization 77. See JosephA. Yager, "The Republic of Korea," and "Taiwan," in JosephA. Yager, ed., 1980),pp. 44-65 Nonproliferation and U.S. ForeignPolicy(Washington,D.C.: BrookingsInstitution, and 66-81, respectively. 78. See David Sanger,"NorthKorea AssemblyBacks AtomPact," TheNewYorkTimes,10 April 1992,p. A3; and David Sanger,"NorthKorea Reveals Nuclear Sites to AtomicAgency,TheNew diplomatic YorkTimes,7 May 1992,p. A4. The initialU.S. responseincludedbehind-the-scenes pressureand encouragingsupportivestatementsby concernedstates at IAEA meetings.See L. TheSpreadofNuclearWeapons,1989-1990(Boulder,Colo.: Westview Spector,NuclearAmbitions: Press, 1990), pp. 127-30. Japan apparentlyhas refused to consider economic assistance or in NorthKorea untilthenuclearissue is cleared up. investment 79. Countriesthathave not ratifiedthe NPT includeArgentina,Brazil, China, France, India, p. 430. Israel,and Pakistan.See Spector,NuclearAmbitions, 80. ReutersNews Service,"Argentinaand BrazilSignNuclearAccord,"TheNewYorkTimes,14 December 1991,p. 7; "Brazil and Argentina:IAEA SafeguardAccord,"U.S. Departmentof State This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 199 openly tested or acknowledgedthe possession of nuclear weapons. Thus, despitesome significant departurefromitsnorms,the NPT and thenonproliferationregimebuiltaroundithave survived. The U.S. emphasis on the importanceof verificationof arms control agreementsseemsto portendthe applicationof a strictcompliancestandard.81 However, at least since the Reagan administration, presidentialreportsto Congress,mandatedby theArmsControland DisarmamentAct, listeda long seriesofallegedSovietviolationswithoutigniting anyseriousmoveto withdraw fromtheapplicabletreaties.82 One of theseviolations,the phased arrayradarconstructedat Krasnoyarsk, was widelyregardedas a deliberateand egregiousbreach of the ABM treaty. radars be sited "along the peripheryof Article6 requiresthatearly-warning and orientedoutward."Krasnoyarsk was sevenhundred [the]nationalterritory kilometersfromtheMongolianborderand pointednortheastoverSiberia.The overa period issue was repeatedlythrashedout betweenthe twogovernments of years, sometimes at the highest levels. The United States linked its resolution to progress on future arms control agreements.The Soviets radarsystemand thusnot maintainedthattheinstallationwas a space-tracking subjectto the prohibition,but ultimatelytheyacknowledgedthe breach and agreed to eliminatethe offendinginstallation.Nevertheless,throughoutthis and the entireperiodtheABM treatyregimecontinuedin fullforceand effect, U.S. administrationnever seriouslypursued the option of withdrawalor Even in connectionwithits cherishedSDI, the Reagan adminisabrogation.83 trationpreferredto attemptto "reinterpret"the treatyratherthanaccept the moreseriousdomesticpoliticalcostsof abrogation. Dispatch,23 December 1991,p. 907; ReutersNews Service,"South AfricaSignsa TreatyAllowing Nuclear Inspection," The New York Times, 9 July 1991, p. All; and "Fact Sheet: Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty,"U.S. Departmentof State Dispatch,8 July1991,p. 491. 81. The 1977 Congress enacted a requirementfor "adequate verification"of arms control agreements.This was describedbyCarteradministration officialsas a "practicalstandard"under whichtheUnitedStateswouldbe able to identify significant attemptedevasionsin timeto respond effectively. See Chayesand Chayes,"From Law Enforcementto Dispute Settlement,"pp. 147-48. It should be noted thatwhen the Soviet Union in 1987 finallyagreed to substantially unlimited on-siteinspection,theUnitedStatesdrewback fromitsearlierinsistenceon thatrequirement, as it has in chemicalwarfarenegotiations. 82. Withdrawalfromall U.S.-Soviet arms controlagreementsis permittedon shortnotice if "extraordinary eventsrelatedto the subjectmatterof thetreatyjeopardize the supremeinterests" ofthewithdrawing party.See, forexample,TreatyBetweentheUnitedStatesand theSovietUnion on the Limitationof AntiballisticMissile Systems,26 May 1972, Article 15(2), 23 U.S.T. 3435 (1972). The law of treatiesalso permitsthe suspensionof a treatyin whole or in partifthe other partyhas committeda materialbreach.See theVienna Conventionon theLaw ofTreaties,Article 60(1),(2). 83. The closestapproachto such an initiative was themildlycomicbureaucraticsquabble in the closing years of the Reagan administrationabout whetherthe Krasnoyarskradar should be denominateda materialbreach of the ABM treaty.See Paul Lewis, "SovietsWarn U.S. Against AbandoningABM Pact," TheNew YorkTimes,2 September1988,p. A9; and Michael R. Gordon, "MinorViolationsofArmsPact Seen," TheNew YorkTimes,3 December 1988,p. 5. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 200 InternationalOrganization In thelast analysis,the longlistof asserted"violations"presentedno threat eitherto theU.S. securityintereststhatthetreatiesweredesignedto safeguard or to thebasic bargainthatneitherside would deployABM systems.American political and militaryleaders were more than willingto toleratenonperformance at the marginas the price of continuingconstrainton a meaningful Sovietattemptto shiftthestrategicbalance. If national securityregimeshave not collapsed in the face of significant perceivedviolation,it shouldbe no surprisethateconomicand environmental treatiescan toleratea good deal of noncompliance.Such regimesare in fact relativelyforgivingof violations plausiblyjustifiedby extenuatingcircumstances in the foreignor domesticlife of the offendingstate, providedthe action does not threatenthe survivalof the regime. As noted above, a considerableamountof deviancefromstricttreatynormsmaybe anticipated fromthe beginningand accepted,whetherin the formof transitionalperiods, special exemptions,limitedsubstantiveobligations,or informalexpectationsof theparties. reporting The generallydisappointingperformanceof states in fulfilling It is widelyacceptedthatfailure is consistentwiththisanalysis.84 requirements or deficientbureaucraticcapacity to filereportsreflectsa low domesticpriority in the reportingstate.Since the reportingis not centralto the treatybargain, the lapse can be viewed as "technical."When, as in the MontrealProtocol, of the regime,the parties accuratereportingwas essentialto the functioning and with to overcomethedeficiency, and thesecretariatmade strenuousefforts some success.85 The Conventionon InternationalTrade in Endangered Species (CITES) ordinarilydisplayssome tolerancefor noncompliance,but the alarmingand widelypublicizeddeclinein theelephantpopulationin East Africanhabitatsin the 1980s galvanizedthe treatyregime.The partiestook a decisionto listthe itfromAppendixB, whereithad elephantin AppendixA ofthetreaty(shifting been listed),withtheeffectofbanningall commercialtradein ivory. previously The treatypermitsanypartyto entera reservationto such an action,in which case the reservingpartyis not bound by it. Nevertheless,througha varietyof pressures,the United States togetherwith a group of European countries insistedon universaladherence to the ban, bringingsuch major tradersas Japan and Hong Kong to heel.86The head of the Japanese Environment Not Environment: InternationalAgreementsAre 84. U.S. GeneralAccountingOffice,International GAO, RCED-92-43, January1992. Well-Monitored, 85. See Reportof the Secretariaton the Reportingof Data bythe Partiesin Accordancewith Article7 of the MontrealProtocol,UNEP/OzL.Pro.3/5, 23 May 1991, pp. 6-12 and 22-24; and Addendum,UNEP/OzL.Pro.3/5/Add.1,19 June1991. 86. For a reportof Japan'sannouncementof itsintentionnotto entera reservationon the last dayof the conference,see United Press International,"TokyoAgrees to JoinIvoryImportBan," Boston Globe, 21 October 1989, p. 6. Japan stated that it was "respectingthe overwhelming As to Hong Kong,see JanePerlez,"IvoryBan Said to community." sentimentof the international was Force FactoriesShut,"TheNew YorkTimes,22 May 1990,p. A14. The Hong Kong reservation This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 201 Agency supported the Japanese move in order "to avoid isolation in the internationalcommunity."87 It was freelysuggestedthatJapan's offerto host the nextmeetingof the conferenceof parties,whichwas accepted on the last dayof theconferenceafterJapanannounceditschangedposition,would have been rejectedhad itreservedon theivoryban. The meaningof the backgroundassumptionof general complianceis that moststateswill continueto comply,even in the face of considerabledeviant behaviorby other parties. In otherwords,the free-riderproblemhas been overestimated. The treatywillnotnecessarilyunravelin theface of defections. As Mancur Olson recognized,ifthe benefitsof the collectivegood to one or a group of partiesoutweighthe costs to themof providingthe good, theywill continueto bear thecostsregardlessofthedefectionsofothers.88 It seems plausible thattreatyregimesare subjectto a kindof critical-mass phenomenon,so thatonce defectionreaches a certainlevel,or in the face of particularly egregiousviolationbya majorplayer,the regimemightcollapse.89 Thus,eithertheparticularcharacterofa violationor theidentity oftheviolator maypose a threatto the regimeand evoke a higherdemand forcompliance. This analysiswould accountforboth the similaritiesand differences between the Krasnoyarskand CITES cases. In the firstcase, althoughcore security values were at stake and the violationwas egregious,it did not threatenthe basic treatybargain.The United States respondedwitha significant enforcementeffort but did notitselfdestroythebasic bargainbyabrogatingthetreaty. In the second case, involvingrelativelyperipheralnationalinterestsfromthe realistperspective,a reservationpermittedunder the treatythreatenedthe collapse oftheregime.A concertedand energeticdefenseresulted. Determiningtheacceptablecompliancelevel If,as we argue above,the "acceptable level of compliance"is subjectto broad varianceacrossregimes,times,and occasions,howis whatis "acceptable" to be determinedin anyparticularinstance?The economistshave a straightforward answer: invest additional resources in enforcement(or other measures to not renewed after the initial six-monthperiod. Five African producer states with effective managementprogramsdid enterreservationsbut agreed not to engage in trade untilat least the next conferenceof the parties. See Michael J. Glennon, "Has InternationalLaw Failed the Elephant,"AmericanJournalofInternational Law 84 (January1990), pp. 1-43, especiallyp. 17. At the 1992 meetingtheyended theiropposition.See "Five AfricanNations Abandon Effortto Daily,electronic Resume ElephantTrade in CITES Talks,"BureauofNationalAffairs Environment newsservice,12 March 1992. 87. United Press International,"Tokyo Agrees to JoinIvoryImportBan," Boston Globe, 21 October1989. Action(Cambridge,Mass.: HarvardUniversity 88. MancurOlson, TheLogic of Collective Press, 1971),pp. 33-36. and 89. For a discussionof critical-mass behaviormodels,see Thomas Schelling,Micromotives Macrobehavior (New York: Norton,1978),pp. 91-110. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 202 InternationalOrganization induce compliance) up to the point at which the value of the incremental benefitfroman additionalunitofcomplianceexactlyequals thecostofthelast the usefulnessof unit of additionalenforcementresources.90Unfortunately, or even approximatof quantifying thisapproachis limitedbytheimpossibility ing, let alone monetizing,any of the relevantfactorsin the equation-and marketsare notnormallyavailableto help. as CharlesLindblomhas toldus, theprocessbywhich In suchcircumstances, preferencesare aggregatedis necessarilya politicalone.91It followsthatthe effort is enforcement (or slacken)theinternational choicewhetherto intensify necessarilya politicaldecision.It implicatesall the same interestspro and con of the treatynorm,as modifiedby thatwere involvedin the initialformulation the balance will to some Although interveningchanges of circumstances. the partiesentertainedat that of compliance degree reflectthe expectations as in domesticpolitics,to find in international means it is no rare, by thattime, in the form of substantive regulationis taken the lawmaker has given thatwhat in terms of compliancewill is "acceptable" What in implementation. the away reflectthe perspectivesand interestsof participantsin the ongoingpolitical standard. or market-validated processratherthansome externalscientific Ifthetreatyestablishesa formalorganization,thatbodymayserveas a focus formobilizingthe politicalimpetusfora higherlevel of compliance.A strong secretariatcan sometimesexertcompliancepressure,as in the IMF or ILO. The organizationmayserveas a forumforcontinuingnegotiationamongthe partiesabout the level of compliance.An exampleof these possibilitiesis the of the InternationalMaritimeConsultativeOrganization(IMCO)-and effort after1982 its successor,the InternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)-to controlpollutionof the sea by tankerdischargesof oil mixed with ballast water.92IMCO's regulatoryapproach was to impose performancestandards limitingthe amountof oil thatcould be dischargedon anyvoyage.From 1954, whenthefirstoil pollutiontreatywas signed,untilthe 1978revisions,therewas withthe level of compliance.IMCO respondedby continuousdissatisfaction imposingincreasinglystrictlimits,but these produced only modest results of monitoringand verifyingthe amount of oil because of the difficulty dischargedby tankercaptains at sea. Finally,in 1978 IMO adopted a new regulatorystrategyand imposed an equipment standard requiringall new 90. See Gary Becker,"Crime and Punishment:An Economic Approach,"Journalof Political ofLaws," p. Economy76 (March/April1968),pp. 169-217;and Stigler,"The OptimumEnforcement pp. 7-8 and 111-27. 526. Also see Young,Complianceand PublicAuthority, 91. CharlesE. Lindblom,Politicsand Markets(New York:Basic Books,1977),pp. 254-55. At the enforcementof the treatyimplicatesa similar domesticlevel, the decisionwhetherto intensify testify. politicalprocess,as the continuousdebates in the United Statesover GATT enforcement includesa considerationof second-levelenforcement. Our work-in-progress 92. Ronald Mitchell,"IntentionalOil Pollutionof the Oceans: Crises, Public Pressure,and EquipmentStandards,"in PeterM. Haas, Robert0. Keohane, and MarkA. Levy,eds.,Institutions Protection(Cafibridge,Mass.: MIT International Environmental fortheEarth:SourcesofEffective Press,forthcoming). This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 203 preventthe intermixture tankersto have separateballast tanksthatphysically of oil withthe dischargedballast water. The new requirementwas costlyto tankeroperatorsbuteasilymonitoredbyshippingauthorities.Compliancewith the equipmentstandardhas been close to 100 percent,and dischargeof oil fromthe new ships is substantiallynil. The sequence reflectsthe changing and shipof politicalstrengthbetweendomesticenvironmental configuration originally which was IMCO) IMO (and members of pingconstituenciesin the referredto as a "shippingindustryclub." At the same time,the major oil companies,whichin the earlier period were shippingindustryallies, shifted pressures. politicalallegianceunderenvironmentalist Since the internationalsystemis horizontalratherthan hierarchical,if one resources,it maybe stateor a groupof statesis willingto commitenforcement able to short-circuitcumbersome organizational procedures and pursue improvedlevels of complianceby its own decision. The U.S. deploymentof tradesanctionsunderSection301 of the TariffAct againstviolatorsof GATT obligationsreflectsa unilateralpolitical decision (1) that existinglevels of compliance were not acceptable and (2) to pay the costs of additional In that case, however,gains in compliancewith substantive enforcement.93 obligationsmustbe weighed againstlosses attendanton departurefromthe proceduralnormsmandatingmultilateraldisputesettlement.94 Again, aftera considerableperiod of fruitlessexhortationin the InternationalWhalingCommission,Japanfinallyagreedto participatein a temporary moratorium on whalingthathad been proclaimedbytheorganizationwhenthe United States threatenedtrade sanctionsunder the Marine Mammal ProtectionAct.95The Japaneseban on ivoryimportsshowsa mixtureofeconomicand reputationalthreats.The United States hinted at trade sanctions,and the conferenceofthepartiesof CITES threatenednotto scheduleitsnextmeeting in KyotoifJapanremainedout ofcompliance. Ifthereare no objectivestandardsbywhichto recognizean "acceptablelevel of compliance,"it maybe possible at least to identifysome generaltypesof situationsthatmightactuatethe deploymentof politicalpowerin the interest of greatercompliance.First,statescommittedto the treatyregimemaysense thata tippingpointis close, so thatenhancedcompliancewould be necessary As notedabove,the actionsagainstJapanon theivory forregimepreservation. 93. UnitedStatesCode,Title 19,Section2411. Section301,however,has been widelycriticizedas itselfa violationof GATT. See A. 0. Sykes,"ConstructiveUnilateralThreats in International Business CommercialRelations:The LimitedCase forSection301," Law and PolicyinInternational 23 (Spring 1992), pp. 263-330; and Thomas 0. Bayard and KimberlyA. Elliott,"Aggressive Unilateralismand Section 301: Market Opening or Market Closing," The WorldEconomy 15 (November1992),pp. 685-706. 94. GATT, Articles22 and 23, 30 October 1947, as amended. See "GATT Basic Instruments and Selected Documents,"in UNTS, vol. 55, no. 814, 1950,p. 194. 95. See SteinarAndresen,"Science and Politicsin the InternationalManagementof Whales," Regulationof Whaling MarinePolicy,vol. 13, no. 2, 1989, p. 99; and PatriciaBirnie,International (New York: Oceana, 1985). This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 204 InternationalOrganization givento the importban mayhavebeen ofthischaracter.Afterthehighvisibility CITES movesto ban the ivorytrade,therewould not have been muchleftof theregimeifJapanhad been permittedto importwithimpunity. Second, states committedto a level of compliance higher than that acceptableto thegeneralityof thepartiesmayseek to ratchetup thestandard. The Netherlandsoften seems to play the role of "leader" in European environmentalaffairsboth in the NorthSea and Baltic Sea regimesand in LRTAP.96 Similarly,the United States may be a "leader" for improving compliancewiththe NPT, where its positionis far strongerthan that of its allies. Finally,campaigningto improvea compliancelevel that states concerned forNGOs, especiallyin activity wouldjustas soon leave alone is a characteristic have NGOs increasingly and of human rights. the fieldsof the environment in and the both within organizations treaty the politicalprocess directaccess to and organizational, a Their technical, are part. they the societies of which lobbyingskillsare an independentresourceforenhanced complianceat both levelsofthetwo-levelgame. Conclusion The foregoingdiscussionreflectsa viewof noncomplianceas a deviantrather thanan expectedbehavior,and as endemicratherthandeliberate.This in turn measuresand even,to a degree,of leads to de-emphasisofformalenforcement in cases. It shiftsattentionto egregious informal except sanctions, coercive sources of noncompliancethat can be managed by routine international of disputeresolutionprocedures politicalprocesses. Thus, the improvement technicaland financialassistancemayhelp goes to the problemof ambiguity; willmake it likelierthat,overtime, cure the capacitydeficit;and transparency national policy decisions are brought increasinglyinto line with agreed standards. international to persuade These approachesmergein theprocessofjawboning-an effort the miscreantto change its ways-that is the characteristicformof internaThis processexploitsthepracticalnecessityforthe tionalenforcement activity. forsuspectconduct.These putativeoffenderto givereasons and justifications reasons and justificationsare reviewedand critiquedin a varietyof venues, public and private,formaland informal.The tendencyis to winnow out commitments-thosethat reasonablyjustifiableor unintendedfailuresto fulfill comportwitha good-faithcompliancestandard-and to identifyand isolate addressing the fewcases of egregiousand willfulviolation.By systematically circumstancesthatmightpossiblybe advanced, and eliminatingall mitigating 96. See Peter M. Haas, "Protectingthe Baltic and NorthSeas," in Haas, Keohane, and Levy, Institutions fortheEarth. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions On compliance 205 thisprocesscan ultimately demonstratethatwhatmayat firsthave seemed like ambiguous conduct is a black-and-whitecase of deliberate violation. The to the rule as offending state is leftwitha starkchoice betweenconforming definedand applied in the particularcircumstancesor openly floutingits obligation.This turnsout to be a veryuncomfortableposition for even a powerfulstate.The Krasnoyarskstoryrepresentsan exampleofthisprocessin action. Perhaps anotheris the repeated Iraqi retreatin showdownswiththe UN-IAEA inspectionteams.97 measuresof assistanceand persuaEnforcementthroughthese interacting sion is less costlyand intrusiveand is certainlyless dramaticthan coercive sanctions,theeasy and usual policyelixirfornoncompliance.It has thefurther virtuethat it is adapted to the needs and capacities of the contemporary international system. 97. For an accountof the Iraqi response,see Sean Cote, A Narrativeof theImplementation of SectionC of UN Security CouncilResolution687. This content downloaded from 143.107.26.38 on Thu, 26 Feb 2015 15:35:53 UTC All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz