Vulnerability of coral reefs in the tropical Pacific to climate change

Photo: Steve Lindfield
Chapter 5
Vulnerability of coral reefs in the tropical Pacific
to climate change
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Serge Andréfouët, Katharina E Fabricius, Guillermo
Diaz-Pulido, Janice M Lough, Paul A Marshall and Morgan S Pratchett
‘Temperature-related effects of global warming on coral reefs are highly visible,
well-defined and extensively documented. The more recently recognised effects of
atmospheric carbon dioxide on ocean acidification will have even more profoundly
detrimental long-term effects on reefs.’ (Veron et al. 2009)i
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Contents
252
Page
5.1 Introduction
253
5.2 Structure and distribution of coral reefs in the tropical Pacific
254
5.3 Role of coral reefs in supporting fisheries in the tropical Pacific
258
5.4 Critical requirements for coral reefs
260
5.5 Coral reefs in a changing world
5.5.1 Effects of global warming on coral reefs in the tropical Pacific
5.5.2 Additional effects of ocean acidification
5.5.3 Interactions and synergies
5.5.4 Changes to coral reefs over time
262
262
264
266
266
5.6 Projected vulnerability of coral reefs to climate change
5.6.1 Sea surface temperature
5.6.2 Solar radiation
5.6.3 Ocean acidification
5.6.4 Tropical cyclones and floods
5.6.5 Sea-level rise
5.6.6 Ocean circulation and upwelling
267
267
269
270
271
273
275
5.7 Projected changes: coral reefs under low versus high CO2 emissions
5.7.1 The next two to three decades: coral reefs in 2035 (B1 and A2)
5.7.2 Coral reefs in 2100 (B1)
5.7.3 Coral reefs in 2100 (A2)
5.7.4 Beyond 2100: reef recovery versus complete collapse
276
277
281
282
283
5.8 Uncertainty, gaps in knowledge and future research
284
5.9 Management implications and recommendations
286
References
289
CHAPTER 5
5.1 Introduction
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PICT
Land
Melanesia
Fiji
18,272
New Caledonia
19,100
PNG
462,243
Solomon Islands
27,556
Vanuatu
11,880
Micronesia
FSM
700
Guam
541
Kiribati
690
Marshall Islands
112
Nauru
21
CNMI
478
Palau
494
Polynesia
American Samoa
197
Cook Islands
240
French Polynesia
3521
Niue
259
Pitcairn Islands
5
Samoa
2935
Tokelau
10
Tonga
699
Tuvalu
26
Wallis and Futuna
255
Total
reef
Island
No. reef
Atolla Bankb Barrier Patch Fringing Interclasses
c
reef
reef
reef
reefal
10,000*
n/a
35,925 15,466
22,200*
n/a
8535
2191
1244
22
n/a
413
n/a
599
40
n/a
3476
n/a
1471
59
n/a
733
n/a
645
28
n/a
790
n/a
1328
629
n/a
15,047
n/a
2301
466
> 150
163
> 150
134
58
15,074 11,859
238
0
4320 3986
13,930 13,910
7
7
250
0
2496
555
420
113
114
20
0
33
17
523
19
0
0
0
25
615
21
1
0
0
0
0
86
212
75
0
0
0
67
163
2039
30
0
0
0
125
1060
72
27
23
20
3
23
58
368
11
667
548
15,126 13,524
56
56
48
17
466
0
204
204
5811
47
3175 3040
932
588
9
5
35
0
17
0
0
96
135
75
5
58
802
0
0
203
0
564
0
95
0
1
27
0
0
7
0
377
0
14
47
17
178
0
4
139
0
171
0
56
296
38
560
0
10
117
0
4556
0
104
16
37
66
9
17
28
8
70
18
25
* Estimates only; a = area below high water mark, including ‘drowned’ atolls; b = small area below high water mark,
including ‘drowned’ banks; c = includes lagoons and sedimentary areas within main island reef types; n/a = data not
available.
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CHAPTER 5
a)
g)
15 km
b)
c)
15 km
d)
2 km
e)
5 km
20 km
f)
5 km
5 km
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5.3 Role of coral reefs in supporting fisheries in the tropical Pacific
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5.7.1 The next two to three decades: coral reefs in 2035 (B1 and A2)
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B1 scenario (500–600 ppm)
Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
460
800
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100
440
700
420
75
600
400
380
50
500
360
25
400
340
300
320
2000
2100
2200
2300
0
2000
2100
2200
2300
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Coral cover
Year
Scenario
2035
B1/A2
Management
Strong
A2
Unlikely
0%
% increase
130
15
65
40–60
130–200
10–20
50–75
50
> 150
Poor
<5
> 85
80
> 250
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<2
> 90
> 95
> 300
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<2
> 90
> 95
> 300
Somewhat likely
29%
%
40
Strong
2100
15–30
% decrease
25–65
Poor
B1
%
Macroalgal cover
66%
Likely
Very likely
Very low
90% 100%
0% 5%
Low
Medium
33%
High
66%
Very high
95% 100%
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Vulnerability
of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture
to Climate Change
Edited by Johann D Bell, Johanna E Johnson and Alistair J Hobday
3
Vulnerability
of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture
to Climate Change
Edited by Johann D Bell, Johanna E Johnson and Alistair J Hobday
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