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Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih
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Svetovni pregled
Delniški trgi držav na
pragu razvitosti junija po
večini s porasti – odziv
na rezultat „brexita“
dokaj zmeren
Zvišanje obresti v ZDA
morebiti šele konec leta?
Brexit: trenutno je gotovo
le eno: povečane
politične in gospodarske
nepredvidljivosti v Evropi
Konjunkturni program
kitajske vlade izboljšuje
obete za surovine in
trenutno postavlja v
ozadje skrbi glede rasti
na Kitajskem
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Delniški trgi držav na pragu razvitosti so junija skupno beležili porast, pri čemer je večina
evropskih razvijajočih se trgov nasprotno od trenda utrpela padce tečajev. Indeks MSCI
Emerging Markets je pridobil več kot 3 % in se je tako odrezal veliko bolje od razvitih delniških
trgov. Slednji so veliko bolj kot države na pragu razvitosti čutili negativne posledice rezultata
referenduma v Veliki Britaniji, kjer se je večina volivcev odločila za izstop iz Evropske unije in
glasovala za tako imenovani brexit. Zlasti so padce beležile evropske delniške borze, pri tem
najbolj finančni vrednostni papirji.
Razlog za primerljivo zmeren odziv večine trgov v državah na pragu razvitosti na rezultat brexita
se utegne skrivati v dejstvu, da je rezultat še nekoliko bolj omajal morebitno zvišanje obresti
ameriške centralne banke (Fed) oz. bo to sledilo šele z zakasnitvijo. Tudi države na pragu
razvitosti so imele na tej osnovi v zadnjih tednih občutno korist. Že pred britanskim
referendumom je Fed svoje obete glede obresti močno znižala – vendar ob tem ni spremenila
svojih napovedi za ZDA glede narodnega gospodarstva. Drugo zvišanje obresti se tako očitno
ne bo zgodilo pred koncem leta, pri čemer se ni mogoče izogniti občutku, da je brexit
dobrodošel razlog, da se z zvišanjem še nekoliko počaka. Kajti tema brexita je povsem evropska
tema in trenutno je še povsem negotovo, kdaj, kako in ali bo sploh Velika Britanija izstopila iz EU.
S tem je za trge dejansko nemogoče glede tega konkretno karkoli kompenzirati. Nekoliko bolj
gotovo se trenutno zdi, da je mogoče vsaj v nekaj naslednjih mesecih v Evropi računati s trajnimi
političnimi in gospodarskimi nepredvidljivostmi in s še dlje časa trajajočo politiko negativnih
obresti Evropske centralne banke.
Ne nebistveno vlogo za dokaj močan razvoj večine delniških trgov v državah na pragu razvitosti
utegnejo imeti tudi konjunkturni programi kitajskega vodstva. Med drugim naj bi z novimi
masivnimi investicijami v infrastrukturo v naslednjih petih letih razvojno spodbudili tako
nezadostno razvite predele države kot tudi stimulirali narodno gospodarstvo v celoti. Slednje
lahko tako izboljša temeljno situacijo glede ponudbe in povpraševanja za mnoge industrijske
kovine, pa tudi za nafto. To pa bi ponovno pomagalo izvoznikom surovin, ki so jih v zadnjih letih
pestile hude težave. Ne glede na to pa kitajski konjunkturni program kljub svojemu spoštljivemu
obsegu ni primeren, da odločilno spremeni globalno sliko rasti; pa vendar je dovolj velik, da
najprej prepreči nadaljnjo upočasnitev rasti in za vsaj nekaj četrtletij omogoči Kitajski in
nekaterim njenim trgovinskim partnerjem manjšo posebno konjunkturo.
Julij 2016
Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih
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Stran 2 od 5
Country focus
Expansion of
infrastructure in
underdeveloped
regions and expansion
of the power grid
Rising corporate debt:
cause for concern or
virtually unavoidable
side effect of the high
savings rates?
Government still
expects above-average
monsoon rains
Central bank governor
surprisingly announces
resignation
China
The Chinese government’s plan for the next five years is to spark a burst of advancement in
regions that have remained underdeveloped up to now, primarily through massive infrastructure
investments. An equivalent of roughly USD 220 billion is to be provided for the north-eastern
provinces alone between now and 2020. In total, the investments are expected to come to
approximately USD 700 billion; however, this figure also includes some expenditure that was
already planned. Among other measures, the plan calls for the construction of over 500 new
airports and a massive expansion of the power grids and rail networks. Amidst these conditions,
the economic indicators point to relatively stable growth with latent downside risks. However, the
latter will likely be significantly reduced with the new stimulus measures.
The fact that the debt of the Chinese corporate sector continues to grow unabatedly is one of
the country’s key weaknesses, especially because the restructuring of the economy currently
being pushed will inevitably give rise to many losers along with the winners. From a
macroeconomic perspective, however, the rising corporate debt is merely a reflection of the high
savings rate in China. As long as this surplus of savings is not or cannot be invested abroad, it is
almost unavoidable that it will result in rising public sector and/or corporate debt. In and of itself,
this is not necessarily a cause for concern. Things will become critical if these savings are
invested in projects with low or even negative profitability. However, it is nearly impossible to
estimate how prevalent such bad investments are. After all, it is mostly this point and the
assessment of the chances of success for the transformation from an export-based economy to
one that is driven by domestic demand that separate the optimists towards China from those
who predict an economic crash for the country sooner or later. Developments were once again
relatively calm on the Chinese exchanges in June. Overall, there were only slight changes in the
equity indices both in Hong Kong and on the mainland.
India
India’s industrial production shrank in April on the back of a sharp decline in capital goods
manufacturing, especially in the energy equipment segment. In contrast, the production of
consumer goods once again saw robust growth. The inflation rate delivered an upside surprise
again, primarily due to higher food prices. Despite a lacklustre start to the monsoon season, the
authorities are sticking to their forecasts of above-average rainfall overall in the coming months.
The announcement by the governor of India’s central bank that he will not be available for a
second term in September caused quite an uproar. The unexpected resignation of the central
bank head, who is highly respected domestically and internationally, will likely cause a few
uncertainties on the Indian financial markets and fuel speculation regarding the future monetary
and fiscal policy at least temporarily. Against this backdrop, the Indian government announced
new regulations for foreign direct investments in a number of sectors, including aviation,
defence, media, and pharmaceuticals. It will be possible for foreign companies to hold a 100%
stake in defence contractors and in local airlines in the future – subject to the appropriate prior
approval of the government. The equity market posted slight gains in June, rising by roughly
1.5%.
Brazil
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Julij 2016
Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih
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Downward trend
diminishing somewhat;
exports benefiting from
weaker currency
New government
repeatedly confronted
with accusations of
corruption
Russian national bank
cuts key interest rate by
0.5%
Slight thaw in RussianTurkish relations
Turkish economic
growth higher than
expected in first quarter
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Stran 3 od 5
In Brazil, the pace and momentum of the economic recession appear to be gradually
slowing, even if it cannot be called a turnaround yet. Exports were one of the few bright spots,
with fairly substantial growth largely due to the weakness of the Brazilian real. In contrast, the
situation remains difficult with regards to domestic economic activity. The government led by
interim President Temer is being kept busy with repeated accusations of corruption, and no rapid
improvements are in sight due to the massive structural problems. On the political front, it
appears increasingly likely that the currently suspended Dilma Rousseff will be removed from
office in the coming weeks, but this is not entirely certain yet. The accusations against her do not
involve possible corruption: She is accused of budget manipulation and illegal campaign
financing. But a significant contingent of her accusers is apparently up to their necks in the
quagmire of corruption themselves. Therefore, a genuine and clean new political start is hardly to
be expected. Instead, the previous opposition currently sees a one-time opportunity to throw last
year’s election out the window, and it must be noted that Rousseff only won by an extremely slim
margin and that she would not have the slightest chance in a presidential election at this point in
time. If Rousseff is actually removed from office, Temer will serve as president until 2018, the end
of the current term of office. The Brazilian equity market delivered strong gains in June, with the
Bovespa index rising by around 6%.
Russia
Russia’s national bank cut the key interest rate by 0.50% to 10.50% in June and at the same
time lowered its inflation forecast for 2016 by one percentage point to 5–6%. For 2017, it expects
a similar inflation rate and real economic growth of 1.3%. At the same time, the EU extended its
economic sanctions against Russia by another six months, although disagreements in this
regard are increasingly starting to show within the EU. In response, Russia is also keeping its
counter-sanctions in place. In contrast, there were initial signs of a thaw in the relations between
Russia and Turkey. President Erdogan officially apologised for the incident in which a Russian
fighter jet was shot down by the Turkish army last November. In line with the initial slight increase
in oil prices, the rouble appreciated against the US dollar by roughly 4.5% overall. The Russian
equity market (MICEX index) stumbled slightly in June.
Turkey
The Turkish economy delivered stronger than expected growth in the first quarter of 2016,
with an annualised rate of 4.8%. This was primarily due to rising consumption in both the private
and public sector. Investment spending, on the other hand, was subdued. Imports grew
significantly more than exports, but the current account deficit still came in lower than analysts
had projected. In fact, the deficit has been at a six-year low over the past 12 months.
Nevertheless, the situation remains precarious when it comes to foreign currency reserves. As
expected, the central bank lowered the upper end of its interest rate corridor by 0.5%, but did not
make any major changes in its statements on the economy or in its monetary policy. Although
the massive terror attacks at the Istanbul airport at the end of the month had very little impact on
the Turkish financial markets initially, they could have a significant effect on the already
beleaguered tourism industry. The number of foreign tourists reported in May already showed a
decline of more than one third compared with May of last year. It was amidst these conditions
that the Turkish government made its latest cautious attempts to normalise its relations with
Russia and ease tensions; President Erdogan apologised for the incident in which a Russian
fighter jet was shot down last November. In response, the Russian president lifted the tourism
Julij 2016
Aktualno poročilo o kapitalskih trgih na razvijajočih se trgih
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Russia lifts tourism ban
following Erdogan’s
apology
ban that had been put in place at the time of the incident. Russian tourists had been a key
customer group for the Turkish tourism industry up until the sanctions were imposed by Russia.
Their return would be extremely good news for Turkish tour and hotel operators. Contrary to the
general trend for the emerging markets, the equity market posted a loss of roughly 1%.
Greek tourism industry
concerned about
business
Polish economic growth
falls short of expectations
1
Greece 1
Greece’s economic recovery will likely be highly dependent upon the development of tourism
– which has always been a key industry for the country – this year. However, the outlook currently
ranges from mixed to negative. Some regions are reporting fairly solid numbers. In other regions,
however, many potential tourists are apparently being scared away by the images of refugees
and migrants from the Middle East and Asia on Greek islands and the reports about altercations
in the refugee camps. In addition, the sector is suffering due to higher taxes and duties. Although
Great Britain’s potential exit from the EU will likely only have a minimal direct impact on Greece,
European bank equities – which were already under significant pressure before the Brexit vote –
fell further following the referendum. Equities of Greek banks also suffered significant losses and
sent the equity index in Athens spiralling downward. With a loss of roughly 17%, the Greek
market was by far the weakest in Europe in June.
CE3 – Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary
Poland’s economic growth for the first quarter was disappointing, with a rate of 3% yoy. Most
analysts had projected 3.5%. Although the decline in inflation seems to have stopped for the time
being, the inflation rate was once again deep in deflationary territory in May, at minus 0.9%.
Hungary also showed deflationary tendencies, with an inflation rate of minus 0.2%. Nevertheless,
the Hungarian central bank left the key interest rate unchanged, thus once again taking a break
in its interest rate cuts. Considering the fact that the key rate is at 0.9%, however, there is now
very little room to manoeuvre anyway.
The equity markets of the CE3 bucked the overall trend for the emerging markets in June,
posing losses. Prices were dragged down by the Brexit vote and the tense situation in the
European banking sector. The declines in Poland and Hungary were relatively modest at 0.5%
and roughly 1%, respectively, but the exchange in Prague fell by more than 8%.
As has been widely publicized, Greece’s equity market is now included in the MSCI Emerging Markets index, while its bond market is still rated as
an established market.
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