October 16, 2016
Hillary Clinton opens narrow lead over Donald Trump in wake of Trump comments on
women.
By:
R. Kelly Myers
Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University
603.433.3982
Portsmouth, NH. – Democrat Hillary Clinton has opened a lead over Republican Donald Trump
with just over three weeks remaining in the presidential campaign. In our most recent nationwide poll, Clinton leads Trump 46-to-41 percent among likely voters, compared to 45-to-43
percent in mid-September. Trump has seen his support decline most among self-identified
political Independents.
Most likely voters have read, seen, or heard about a video tape where Trump makes lewd
comments about sex and women in 2005, as 83 percent of respondents surveyed said they had
heard a great deal (60%) or a moderate amount (23%) about the tape. The presidential debates
also appear to be having a negative impact on views toward Trump, with 41 percent of
respondents saying their opinion of Trump has gotten worse since the debates began,
compared to 25 percent saying the same about Clinton.
These results are based on a recent Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald Poll conducted
by RKM Research, October 9 – 13, 2016. The survey is based on responses from 1,011
randomly selected likely voters. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone.
The maximum sampling margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.
Favorability ratings of presidential candidates:
(Oct. 16, 2016)
Favorability Ratings of presidential candidates (Oct. 16, 2016):
Hillary Clinton
52
45
58
Donald Trump
39
38
Gary Johnson
16
28 10
Jill Stein
Percent
Unfavorable
Favorable
While our polls continue to show that the two presidential candidates remain very unpopular,
with more than one-half of voters holding unfavorable views toward both candidates, Hillary
Clinton has made small improvements in her rating compared to small declines in Trump’s
ratings.
Donald Trump receives a favorable rating of 39 percent, and an unfavorable rating of 58
percent. Likewise, Hillary Clinton receives a favorable rating of 45 percent, and an unfavorable
rating of 52 percent. Trump’s net favorability ratings, the percentage who view him favorably
minus the percentage who view him unfavorably, stands at -19 percent, a decline from -15
percent in our previous poll. Clinton’s net favorability has improved, rising to -7 percent from -11
percent in mid-September.
Favorability
ratings
of Donald
Trump
compared
over over
time:time
Favorability
ratings
of Donald
Trump
compared
Donald Trump
100
58
57
56
58
38
40
41
39
7/19/16
9/4/16
9/25/16
10/16/16
Unfavorable
Favorable
0
Oct. 16, 2016
No opinion
2%
Very
Unfavorable
51%
Very
favorable
26%
Somewhat
favorable
13%
Somewhat
unfavorable
8%
The unpopularity of the two leading presidential candidates continues to be exacerbated by the
intensity of voter sentiment. One-half of voters (51%) hold a very unfavorable view of Donald
Trump. Thirty-nine percent of voters hold a very (26%) or somewhat (13%) favorable view
toward Trump. These results have remained essentially unchanged since July.
Favorability
Ratings
of Hillary
Clinton
compared
over
time:
Favorability
ratings
of Hillary
Clinton
compared
over
time
Hillary Clinton
100
53
55
54
52
42
42
43
45
7/19/16
9/4/16
9/25/16
10/16/16
Unfavorable
Favorable
0
Oct. 16, 2016
No opinion
3%
Very
favorable
27%
Very
Unfavorable
46%
Somewhat
favorable
18%
Somewhat
unfavorable
6%
Hillary Clinton also has similar favorability problems. Less than one-half of voters (46%) hold a
very unfavorable view of her. Forty-five percent of voters hold very (27%) or somewhat (18%)
favorable view toward Clinton. These results have narrowed slightly over time since July.
If the election for U.S. President were held today, which of the candidates
the election
would youIfvote
for? for U.S. President were held today, which of the
candidates would you vote for?
9/4/2016
7/18/16
9/1516
10/16/16
Donald
Trump
41
41
43
41
Hillary
Clinton
44
44
45
46
Gary
Johnson
7
8
6
6
Jill Stein
2
3
2
2
Other
3
1
1
3
Unsure
3
3
3
2
0
100 0
100 0
100 0
100
Among: All voters (includes “forced choice” responses)
If the election were held today, voters are more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton (46%) than
Donald Trump (41%). Few voters said that they would vote for Libertarian candidate Gary
Johnson (6%), Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2%) or some other candidate (3%). Only two
percent of voters remain unsure who they would vote for if the election were held today.
Clinton has opened a five-point lead over Trump, compared to mid-September when the gap
was only 2-points. Her five-point lead represents the largest gap since our nation-wide polling
began in July.
Is that a firm choice, or could you change your mind between now
and
the general election:
Firmness of
Presidential
Vote Choice:
Clinton (46%)
12
88
Trump (41%)
10
90
Could Change Mind
Firm Choice
Both candidates have solidified their base of support, and few currently planning to vote for
either candidate are likely to change their mind. According to our most recent poll, only 12
percent of Clinton supporters, and 10 percent of Trump supporters, said that they could change
their mind between now and Election Day.
Presidential
Vote Choice
Compared
by Selected
Characteristics
Presidential
vote choice
compared
by selected
characteristics
Clinton
Trump
46
Overall
41
8
Republicans
30
Independents
Democrats
Men
Women
78
85
39
7
41
52
46
37
Percent
As expected, presidential vote choice is strongly linked with party identification. Eighty-five
percent of self-identified Democrats said that they would vote for Hillary Clinton, and 78 percent
of self-identified Republicans said that they would vote for Donald Trump. While more
Independents continued to say they would vote for Trump (39%) over Clinton (30%), Trump
appears to have lost support among Independents since mid-September, where he lead Clinton
47 percent to 28 percent.
Perhaps even more significantly, Trump has seen a decline in his edge over Clinton among
men. Trump now holds just a 5-point lead over Clinton among male voters (down from 11-points
in mid-September), while Clinton maintains a strong 15-point lead among female voters (up
from 14-points).
Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will end up winning
Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will end-up
the presidential
election
in November?
winning the
presidential
election in November?
Donald Trump
26
Hillary Clinton
61
Gary Johnson
<1
Jill Stein
<1
Other
<1
Unsure
12
0
100
Nearly two-thirds of likely voters nationwide currently expect Hillary Clinton to win the
presidential election. When asked who they think will end up winning the presidential election,
regardless of their vote preference, 61 percent predicted Hillary Clinton, 26 percent said Donald
Trump, and 12 percent were unsure.
How much have you read, seen, or heard about the release of a video tape
How much have you read, seen, or heard about the release of a
containing
lewd
comments
by Donaldmade
Trump
2005 Trump
about in
sex and
video
tape
containingmade
lewd comments
byin
Donald
about
and women? Would you say…
women?2005
Would
yousex
say…
Overall
60
Republicans
58
Independents
57
Democrats
23
21
24
62
Men
60
Women
61
0
25
22
23
A moderate amount
14
7
12
7
11 2
12 5
12 4
100
Percent
A great deal
12 5
Only a little
Nothing at all
Likely voters are very aware of a 2005 tape made public on October 7th in which Donald Trump
can be heard making lewd comments about sex and women. When asked how much they have
read, seen, or heard about the tape, 83 percent of respondents said a great deal (60%) or a
moderate amount (23%). Few respondents had heard only a little (12%) or nothing at all (5%).
Do youDo
think
Trump
should
or should
not drop
out of
the
you that
thinkDonald
that Donald
Trump
should
or should
not drop
out
of race
the for
race for U.S. President?
U.S. President?
Overall
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
44
1110 28
68
8 9 10
46
5 14 25
23 15 11
44
Percent
Strongly
should not
Moderately
should not
Moderately
should
Strongly
Should
Despite initial calls by some elected officials for Donald Trump to withdraw from the presidential
race, a majority of likely voters said Trump should remain in the race. Fifty-five percent of
respondents said Trump strongly should not (44%) or moderately should not (11%) drop out of
the race for U.S. President. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said he should withdraw.
Do you think it is fair or unfair for Donald Trump to bring up the
Do you think
that it is fair or unfair for Donald Trump to bring up the topic of
topic of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s past marital problems?
Bill and Hillary Clinton’s past marital problems?
Overall
Republicans
Independents
35
60
Women
29
15 12 7
44
Democrats
Men
15 14
15 14 18
11 17 16
39
52
17 13 22
32
14 15
36
Percent
Very fair
Somewhat
fair
Somewhat
unfair
Very unfair
Voters were also asked if it was fair or unfair for Donald Trump to raise the topic of Bill and
Hillary Clinton’s past marital problems. One-half of respondents (50%) said the topic was very
fair (35%) or somewhat fair (15%) to bring up, while 43 percent felt the topic was very unfair
(29%) or somewhat unfair (14%). Men and women differed significantly on the question, with a
majority of men saying the topic was fair (56%), while a majority of women said it was unfair
(51%).
Are you more or less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton due to Bill and Hillary
Are you more or less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton due to Bill and
Clinton’s
past marital problems, or does it have no effect on your vote
Hillary Clinton’s past marital problems, or does it have no effect on
choice?
your vote choice?
Overall 2
86
Republicans 1
80
Independents 0
Democrats
11 1
19
85
11 5
3
93 3 1
Men 2
87
10 1
Women 2
86
11 1
Percent
0
More likely
No effect
100
Less likely
Unsure
Regardless of the fairness of the issue, the topic of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s past marital
problems appear to be having little effect on vote choice. Eighty-six percent of respondents said
the Clinton’s past marital problems have no effect on their vote choice, while only two percent
said it makes them more likely to vote for Clinton and 11 percent reported it makes them less
likely to do so.
How have
much you
haveread,
you read,
seen,
or heard
about
the
presidential debates
How much
seen,
or heard
about
the
presidential
debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? Would you say…
between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? Would you say …
Overall
71
Republicans
73
Independents
68
Democrats
69
0
A moderate amount
6 2
18
7 2
22
6 4
25 5 1
100
Percent
A great deal
22
Only a little
Nothing at all
Likely voters reported broad exposure to presidential debate coverage this year. Nearly threequarters of likely voters (71%) said they have read, seen, or heard a great deal about the
presidential debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. This number remains high
among Republicans (73%), Democrats (69%) and Independents (68%).
the presidential
debates
began,
would
say
your
opinion
SinceSince
the presidential
debates
began,
would
youyou
say
your
opinion
ofof
Donald
Donald
Trump
has
gotten
better,
worse,
or
has
it
not
changed?
Trump has gotten better, worse, or has it not changed?
Overall
12
Republicans
41
21
Independents
Democrats
47
60
14
4
52
62
14
Women
34
34
Men
10
49
37
46
44
Percent
0
Gotten better
19
Has not changed
100
Gotten worse
However, this strong awareness of press coverage coming out of the debates may be having a
negative effect on Donald Trump. Forty-one percent of likely voters said their opinions of Donald
Trump have gotten worse since the debates began, 47 percent said their opinion has not
changed and only 12 percent said it has gotten better.
Since
the presidential
debates
began,
would
yousay
sayyour
your opinion
opinion ofof Hillary
Since the
presidential
debates
began,
would
you
Hillary
Clinton
has
gotten
better,
worse,
or
has
it
not
changed?
Clinton has gotten better, worse, or has it not changed?
Overall
22
Republicans
53
5
Independents
51
12
44
58
Democrats
29
39
Men
54
20
Women
25
56
24
50
Percent
0
Gotten better
Has not changed
7
24
26
100
Gotten worse
The presidential debates seem to have had a lesser effect on voters’ opinion of Hillary Clinton.
Less than one-quarter of likely voters (22%) said their opinion of Clinton has gotten better since
the debates began, 25 percent said their opinion has gotten worse, and 53 percent reported that
their opinion has not changed.
A potentially significant finding when comparing the effect the debates have had on opinions of
Clinton and Trump can be seen when examining partisan opinions between the two. Clinton
appears to have scored better among Democrats than Trump has among Republicans, as 39
percent of Democrats reported their opinion of Clinton has gotten better since the debates
began. In contrast, only 21 percent of Republicans said their opinion of Trump has gotten better,
while nearly as many reported their opinion has gotten worse (19%).
How much
you read,
seen,
or heard
about
the
vice-presidentialdebate
How much
havehave
you read,
seen,
or heard
about
the
vice-presidential
debates between Tim Kaine and Mike Pence? Would you say…
between Tim Kaine and Mike Pence? Would you say…
Overall
38
Republicans
29
46
Independents
24
37
Democrats
32
22
9
A moderate amount
27
25
7
10
100
Percent
A great deal
10
30
32
0
24
Only a little
Nothing at all
Perhaps as expected, voters reported less exposure to the vice-presidential debate compared
to the presidential debates. When asked how much they have read, seen, or heard about the
vice-presidential debate between Tim Kaine and Mike Pence, thirty-eight percent of likely voters
said a great deal, while others reported a moderate amount (29%), only a little (24%) or nothing
at all (10%). Republicans (46%) were more likely to report hearing a great deal about the vicepresidential debate compared to Democrats (32%) or Independents (37%).
BasedBased
on what
you have
read,
seen,
or heard,
who
dodo
you
on what
you have
read,
seen,
or heard,
who
youthink
thinkwon
wonthe
recent
vice-presidential
debate?
the recent vice-presidential debate?
Overall
Republicans
Independents
45
23
70
8
50
Democrats
15
22
38
Percent
Mike Pence
Tim Kaine
Based on what respondents had read, seen, or heard about the vice-presidential debate, a
plurality (45%) thought Mike Pence was the winner of the vice-presidential debate, 23 percent
thought Tim Kaine won, and 20 percent were unsure. Lesser percentages volunteered that they
thought the debate was a tie (5%) or that neither won (7%). Republicans (70%) and
Independents (50%) were more likely to identify Pence as the winner compared to 38 percent of
Democrats who thought Kaine won the debate.
Now I’m going to read to you a list of topics. When I’m done, I’d like you to
Now I’m going to read to you a list of topics. When I’m done, I’d like
identify you
the to
two
mostthe
important
youtopics
are interested
in learning
about
identify
two mosttopics
important
you are interested
in
learning
about during
the presidential debates.
during the
presidential
debates.
The leadership skills of the
candidates
21
The honesty and integrity of the
candidates
26
The health of the candidates
3
The likeability of the candidates
2
The domestic social and economic
policy differences between the
candidates
47
The foreign policy differences
between the candidates
43
The candidates' vision for the future
of the U.S.
36
The experience of the candidates
13
Other
3
Unsure
2
0
100
Voters were asked to identify the two most important topics they are interested in learning about
in the upcoming presidential debates. Voters were most likely to cite the domestic, social and
economic policy differences between the candidates (47%) and the foreign policy differences
between the candidates (43%). The topic voters most want to hear about in the debates
remained essentially unchanged since prior to the first debate in mid-September.
Methodology
The results outlined in this report are based on a survey conducted by RKM Research
on behalf of Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald. All interviews were
conducted by paid, trained and professionally supervised interviewers.
The survey is based on a probabilistic sample of 1,011 likely voters in the United States.
Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone, October 9 – 13, 2016. The
sampling margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.
The data are weighted to adjust for probability of selection, respondent gender,
respondent age and region of the US. The four regions of the country as reported in this
poll are:
East: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island,
Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, West
Virginia and District of Columbia.
Mid-West: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa,
Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas.
South: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky,
Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas
West: Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New
Mexico, California, Oregon, Alaska, Hawaii and Washington.
In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling
error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response.
Any figures shown in the graphics that do not add up to precisely 100 percent are the
result of rounding error.
More information available at www.rkm-research.com (603.433.3982).