DECISION MAKING:
A PRACTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR
PROJECT MANAGERS
Presented by:
Amos C.
C Townsend,
Townsend PMP
Director, Federal Management Systems, Inc.
www.FMSHQ.com
September 16, 2013
2
Ground Rules
• This is meant to be interactive,, I will ask for your
y
participation and response throughout the session.
• We will have questions at the end but feel free to ask
them during the presentation as need dictates.
• All questions are good questions.
3
Objectives
• Stimulate a conversation around Decision Making
g for
Project Managers
• Examine tools and concepts for decision making
• Define a decision making framework
• Eliminate the notion of “good”
good or “bad”
bad decisions
4
Working Definition of Decision
• de·ci·sion
• [ di sí'n ]
• something somebody has chosen: something that somebody
chooses or makes up his or her mind about
about, after considering
it and other possible choices
• firmness in choosing something: the ability to choose or decide
about things in a clear and definite way without too much hesitation
or delay
• process of choosing: the process of coming to a conclusion or
determination about something
5
Conditions for making a decision
In order to make a decision you:
y

MUST have at least two (2) choices from which to choose (to
do or not to do)

MUST involve something that is achievable

MUST have the POWER to decide
6
Exercise: Applying
pp y g decision making
g
conditions from a personal perspective.
• Using
g the “conditions” from the p
previous slide for making
g
decisions, let’s see what you think about the following.
Can you:
decide when you are born?
decide who your parents are?
decide the color of your eyes?
decide to be bald headed?
decide your name?
decide whether or not to follow y
your supervisor’s
p
instructions?
decide what grade you are if Government or pay level you are if
Private Industry?
decide how much education you get?
7
Focus of Decisions in Projects
• In project management, decisions are required throughout
the Triple Constraints:
• Scope (how much functionality, at what quality level, for how many
users, etc.)
• Schedule (can activities be crashed, can activities be aligned
differently, can a provider change its schedule, can you skip/defer
activities, can milestones be missed or eliminated, etc.)
• Cost (can a segment of work be allowed to come in over cost; can
you reduce the cost of a segment; can you afford a scope change,
etc.)
8
Townsend’s
Townsend
s Theory
• There is no such thing as a Good or
Bad decision, BUT there is such a
thi
thing
as good
d or b
bad
d ANALYSIS
before making a decision.
9
Decision Making Framework
• Create a constructive and workable environment for
•
•
•
•
•
getting decisions made
Involve the right people
Know the allowable parameters and authorities in getting
decisions made
Understand the organizational norms and processes
around the subject area about which a decision is to be
made
Ensure risk analysis is part of the process
Establish an orderly process for getting to decisions
10
Tools for the Decision Making Framework
• When p
projects
j
are chartered,, there is one p
process activity
y
that I recommend be established as part of the Project
Management Plan (PMP)
• The
Th process activity
ti it iis as iimportant
t t tto establish
t bli h att th
the
outset as Change Management, Risk Management,
Schedule Management, and others
• The activity is to establish a Decision Matrix or Model
which is comprised of:
• RACI Model
• Decision Threshold Matrix
11
Responsible,
p
, Accountable,, Consulted,,
and Informed (RACI) Model
R
Responsible
ibl – leads
l d the
th process and
d has
h the
th duty
d t and
d obligation
bli ti to
t do
d the
th
work. Must exercise independent judgment to escalate risks and issues.
R
A
Accountable - has been granted the authority to make the determination
and is recipient of consequences; the ultimate authority. Only one “A” can
be assigned to an activity.
C
Consulted – stakeholders with expertise,
expertise experience,
experience and interests who
must be given the opportunity to influence plans and decision prior to
finalization.
I
Informed – receiver of information on progress,
p g
keyy decisions, and
deliverables by the Responsible designee; it’s necessary for them to know
in order to collaborate well.
12
Decision Threshold Matrix Example
Decisions involving the creation and management of the BLANK Project Integrated Master
Schedule (IMS). Includes intra-Program and cross-project dependency identification and
management.
Schedule
Sub-type
Responsible (R)
Thresholds
Within
Schedule
Dates
Exceeds
Within
IPT Delivery
Partners
Schedule
Dates
Exceeds
− Decisions that are
within the schedule
threshold for the
Project
− Decisions that
d th
the schedule
h d l
exceed
threshold for the
Project − Decisions that
affect a dependency
external to the Project
− Decisions that affect
the Program critical
path
− Decisions that are
within the schedule
threshold for the project
− Decisions that
exceed the schedule
threshold for the project
or functional area −
Decisions that affect
the Program critical
path − Decisions that
affect a dependency
outside of the individual
schedule
− Section Chief
− Branch Manager
Accountable (A)
Consulted (C)
Informed (I)
Branch Manager
− Delivery Partners
− Selected IPT Delivery
Partner
− Director
− Delivery Partner
Managers
− Section Managers
-Section Managers
g
− Branch Manager
g
− Delivery Partners
− Branch Managers
− Program Delivery
Managers
− Delivery Partner
Managers − Project
Business Owner
− Delivery
y Partners
− All IPT Delivery
Partner
− Selected IPT Delivery
Partner
− All IPT Delivery
Partner
13
Decision Threshold Matrix
Matrix-continued
continued
• Thresholds – for BLANK Project
j
IMS Schedule Changes
g
within the Branch Manager Authority is + /- 5 work days
with no critical path impact. For Schedule Changes
outside those parameters
parameters, the Director
Director, XXXX Division is
the Authority. For BLANK IPT Delivery Partners Schedule
Changes within the IPT manager authority is + / - 5 days
f activities affecting
for
ff
O
ONLY
the IPT group with no critical
path impact. For Schedule changes outside these
parameters,, the BLANK Branch manager
p
g is the Authority.
y
14
Decision Threshold Matrix
Matrix-continued
continued
• Characteristics:
• Should have sections for each Triple Constraint area
• Should go to the lowest level of granularity that is practical to
foresee in early project planning
• Should be adjusted/amended/expanded as needed during the life
cycle of the project
• Benefits:
• Establishes a template for getting to the right person with the right
authority to make decisions
• Introduces a repeatable process for getting matters before the
correct decision maker(s)
• Provides clarity on which Stakeholders to include in the analysis
process
• Eliminates
Eli i t uncertainty
t i t off who
h can d
decide
id
15
But how do they get me to a decision?
• The RACI and Decision Threshold Matrix
do not get you to a decision
• They do provide structure to go into the
A l i process tto gett to
Analysis
t a decision
d i i
16
Decision Making Framework
• There are three components
p
to the Decision Making
g
Framework:
• Gather Inputs
• Analyze Information
• Evaluate Outcomes (what are the possible positive or
negative
g
outcomes that can result from the decision))
The g
goal for all decision making
g should be to
maximize the probability of positive outcomes!
17
Decision Making
g Framework-Gather
Inputs
• Goals to be achieved from the decision
• Identification of achievable alternatives
• What time is available (to make the decision, by which a
•
•
•
•
•
decision is required)
What time impacts are there for the alternatives under
consideration
What are the cost implications associated with the
alternatives
What are the scope implications, including quality, of the
alternatives
What are the data sources that are needed
Wh t risks
What
i k are associated
i t d with
ith each
h alternative
lt
ti
18
Decision Making
g Framework- Analyze
y
Information
• Consider the resources needed for each alternative.
• Consider the resource availability for each alternative.
• What are the risks associated with each and mitigations
•
•
•
•
•
for them?
What is the organizational climate (risk averse, risk taking,
cutting edge)?
What regulatory implications are there for each?
What agency/company policy implications are there for
each?
Do you have sufficient information available for each?
Do you have the most current (especially for technology
i
issues)
) iinformation
f
ti on each?
h?
19
Decision Making
g Framework-Analyze
y
Information (continued)
• What information do the p
parties in the Decision Threshold
Matrix have that could aid the analysis?
• What customer perspective is needed for each
alternative?
lt
ti ?
• When does a decision need to be rendered to be able to
communicate and implement it timely?
• What happens if no decision is made?
20
Decision Making
g Framework-Evaluate
Outputs/Outcomes
• Identify all the possible Positive outcomes that are
associated with each alternative. Positive means the
outcome
t
has
h good
d or d
desired
i d results.
lt
• Identify all the possible Negative outcomes that are
associated with each alternative. Negative means the
outcome has bad or undesired results.
It is important to be honest and objective when
reporting to the Decision Maker the possible outcomes
for each alternative analyzed!
21
Decision Making Steps
Identification
Analysis
Render
Decision
•Determine
D t
i that
th t a decision
d i i is
i needed
d d
•Invoke the Decision Model and RACI
•Develop alternatives and inputs
•Assemble available data from the Input phase
•Convene discussion or assessment teams as needed
•Ensure
Ensure all available data,
data regulatory provisions,
provisions risks,
risks costs,
costs and scope implications are considered
•Evaluate
Evaluate all potential outcomes (positive and negative) identified for each alternative
•Determine the alternative that is most likely to produce the most positive outcomes
•Make a decision
•Communicate and implement the decision
•Assess how well the selected outcome delivered the desired positive outcomes and document why or why not
for Lessons Learned reports
22
It’ss the analysis that counts
It
counts…
• Effective decision making
g focuses on the three p
parts of
the Framework
• Gather Inputs
• Analyze Information
• Evaluate potential outcomes
You have all the ingredients and the recipe
recipe…
So let’s go make some decisions!
23
QUESTIONS!