THE EFFECTS OF THE MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORT
REVOLUTION ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA, A
CASE STUDY OF THIKA DISTRICT
BY
MBUGUA CHARLES
(10/00697)
A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for
the Degree of Master of Business Administration (Corporate
Management) of the School of Business KCA University
NOVEMBER, 2011
DECLARATION
This Research Thesis is my original work and has not been submitted for a degree in any
other university or Institution
Mbugua Charles
Sign: ………………………… Date……………………
This Research Thesis has been submitted for examination with our approval as
university Supervisor.
Prof. Reuben Indiatsi Nasibi Sign: ………………………… Date……………………
School of Business
KCA University
ii
DEDICATION
This work is dedicated to my parents Mr.Joseph Mutari Karemeri and Mrs Esther
Nyambura Mutari
for inculcating in me a great desire to better the conditions of
mankind.
My wife, Winfred Mbugua and children, May Mbugua and Maxwell Mbugua for their
love, patience and prayers during the arduous task .
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This research has been completed with great assistance from several individuals and
institutions. I will mention all a few of these.
I am greatly indebted to my supervisor Prof. Reuben Indiatsi Nasibi for his insight,
intellectual stimulation and advice all through the study.
My sincere thanks to the boda boda associations in Thika, Kisumu, Kakamega, Ruai and
Nakuru for great cooperation in getting in depth factual information on the subject of
study
I wish to thank Cerar Maja (Phd. London School of Economics) for her insight into the
motorcycle revolution in Kenya and the potential in empowering the urban poor.
I wish to express great gratitude to both the pioneering class and lecturers of MBA
Corporate Management for their innovative thinking that propelled me to always see the
bigger picture in research.
iv
ABSTRACT
Motorcycles pose interesting challenges in developing countries that are not faced by the
rest of world .In the last fifteen years the numbers of motorcycles per capita in many
developing nations has doubled .The vehicles provide an affordable mobility option that
is not otherwise available. They provide door-to-door mobility, unmatched navigability in
congested road conditions, ease of parking, capacity for passengers and luggage at low
cost. With the recent escalation of petroleum prices, interest and use of motorcycles is
growing worldwide. Compared with automobiles, motorcycles offer superior
maneuverability, braking and acceleration that generally give their operators confidence
to operate at higher speeds. The general objective of the study is to investigate the effects
of motorcycle transport revolution on the economy in Kenya with reference to Thika
town.
Descriptive research was used to obtain information concerning the current status of the
phenomena to describe what exists with respect to variables or conditions in the current
situation. Purposive sampling was used to select 7 qualified medical personnel and 10
traffic police officers in the traffic department and 100 bikers in Thika town.
Findings showed that 74.2% of the motorcycle taxi traders are youth .The study also
showed that there was a marked improvement in the monthly earnings for the motorcycle
taxi when compared with their earlier sources of income .There was an improvement in
the livelihoods of 95.7% of the respondents.
There is an ill effect on the health of the bikers and the highest medical condition was
chest infection.
v
TABLE OF CONTENTS
BY ........................................................................................................................................ i DECLARATION............................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION.................................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ............................................................................................... iv ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... v TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................ vi Chapter One ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.0.1 Motorcycle Revolution .......................................................................................... 3 1.2 Statement of the Problem .......................................................................................... 4 1.3 Research Objectives .................................................................................................. 6 1.3.1 General objective ...............................................Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.3.2 Specific objectives .............................................Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.4 Research Questions .............................................................................................. 6 1.5
Significance of the Study ..................................................................................... 7 1.6 Scope and delimitations of the study.................................................................... 8 1.7 Operational Definition of Terms .......................................................................... 8 Chapter Two. ................................................................................................................... 10 2.0 Literature Review ..................................................................................................... 10 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Effects of Motorcycle Revolution on economic growth ....................................... 11 2.3 Theoretical framework ............................................................................................ 14 2.3.1 Collision Avoidance Models ............................................................................ 17 2.4 Conceptual Framework ........................................................................................... 18 Source; Author (2011) ............................................................................................... 18 2.4.1 Motorcycle and economic growth .................................................................... 18 2.4.2 Traffic safety and health ................................................................................... 19 2.4.3 Motor cycle and traffic rules ............................................................................ 21 2.5 Economic Importance of Transportation ................................................................ 22 2.5.1 Transportation and Economic Development .................................................... 24 Chapter Three ................................................................................................................. 27 3.0 Research Methodology ............................................................................................. 27 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 27 3.2 Research Design...................................................................................................... 27 3.3 Population of the study ........................................................................................... 28 3.4 Sample size and Sampling ...................................................................................... 28 3.5 Data Collection ....................................................................................................... 29 vi
3.7 Data Analysis and Presentation .............................................................................. 29 Chapter Four ................................................................................................................... 30 4.0 Data Analysis And Interpretation ........................................................................... 30 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 30 Chapter Five. ................................................................................................................... 43 5.0 Summary, Conclusion And Recommendations ...................................................... 43 5.1.1 Main finding objective 1 ...................................................................................... 43 5.1.2 Main finding objective 2................................................................................. 44 5.1.3 Main finding objective 3................................................................................. 44 5.2 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 46 5.3 Recommendations ................................................................................................... 47 5.4 Research limitation ................................................................................................. 49 5.5 Areas of further study ............................................................................................. 49 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 50 APPENDIX ...................................................................................................................... 54 Appendixes A: Motorcycle Questionnaire.................................................................... 54 Appendixes B: Traffic Police Questionnaire ................................................................ 62 Thank you for your responses ....................................................................................... 63 Appendixes C: Medics Questionnaire .......................................................................... 64 Appendixes D :Time Frame .......................................................................................... 65 vii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: DATA ON INJURIES RESULTING FROM MOTORCYCLES IN THIKA,
2011..................................................................................................................................... 5
Table 2: Sampling frame ................................................................................................... 28
Table 3 : Response rate in percentage............................................................................... 30
Table 4: Occupation before venturing into motorcycle taxi ............................................. 31
Table 5: Level of monthly salary/wage before venturing into motorcycle taxi ................ 31
Table 6: Amount earned per month from this business on average in Ksh. .................... 32
Table 7: Belonging to any merry go round/saving scheme .............................................. 32
Table 8: Amount contributed per month in ksh. ............................................................... 33
Table 9 Benefits of the contributions to members ............................................................ 33
Table 10: Have a group bank account............................................................................... 34
Table 11: Impact of Motorcycle trade on livelihoods ...................................................... 34
Table 12: Medical checkups per year that is brought by ill health by bikers ................... 35
Table 13: Health conditions suffered arising from continuous use of motorcycle ........... 35
Table 14: Specific health conditions in percentage .......................................................... 36
Table 15: Medical attention on the condition/s in Table 14 ............................................. 36
Table 16: Medical care sought for health conditions ........................................................ 37
Table 17: Medical insurance cover ................................................................................... 37
Table 18: Medical officers report on most common health conditions resulting from
motorcycle riding. ............................................................................................................. 37
Table 19: Medical officers report on the main orthopaedic conditions in the wards
resulting from motorcycle accidents ................................................................................. 38
Table 20: Receiving training on motorcycle riding by bikers .......................................... 38
Table 21: Traffic police feedback on training of bikers ................................................... 38
Table 22: Having an accident with the motorcycle .......................................................... 39
Table 23: Safety measures for motorcyclists .................................................................... 39
viii
Table 24: Category of road user causing motorcyclist to have an accident...................... 40
Table 25: The causes of motorcycle accidents according to the traffic police. ................ 40
Table 26: Traffic police feedback on compliance with traffic rules by bikers ................. 41
Table 27: Possession of a valid driving license ................................................................ 41
Table 28: Frequency of stopping motorcycles for inspection by traffic police ................ 42
Table 29: Distribution of respondent by age group .......................................................... 42
ix
Chapter One
1.0 Introduction
Motorcycles have become an indispensable part of every culture. Recent years have seen
the reentry of many famous high quality bike manufacturers. In the past, motorcycles
played a major role in the traffic in developing world. The great growth rate of
motorcycle (for short, we will denote both motorcycle and motorcycle in the conception
of motorcycle) has modified quickly the whole picture. Now, this kind of vehicle
becomes more and more popular by its advantages. The road safety is worsened
considerably with this motorization. The quantity of fatalities by traffic accidents now is
10 times of that in 5 years ago ( Vietnam Government, 2004). It is showed that between
various modes of vehicles on road, the proportion of accidents caused by motorcycle
seems extremely high: it reached from 72 % up to 80% of the total number (Vietnam
Government, 2004). Among all four basic factors that can lead to traffic accidents: road
user, road system, vehicle and environment; the most important is road user, especially,
the drivers.
It is widely understood that transport technology and urban form are inextricably
intertwined. The transport networks of ancient cities reflect an entirely pedestrian and
equestrian scale. With the advent of mechanized transport, the networks and scale of
cities grew in the 19th century as more dispersed travel was facilitated by trains and trams.
The arrival of the automobile in the 20th century further accelerated the centrifugal impact
of transport on city form, creating sprawl and introducing unintended impacts on
environmental quality and social integration. Cities expanding in the 21st century have the
opportunity to learn from the experiences of those cities born since the rise of
mechanized transport to improve balance and overall performance of the urban transport
network. The opportunities to plan cities with more balanced transport are greatest where
cities and urban populations are still developing.
1
The design of cities and transport networks paid little, or no, attention to the impacts of
human development on the underlying health of the natural environment. It was tacitly
assumed that the capacity of the earth to absorb our waste and provide us with resources
is essentially boundless. As human populations have skyrocketed we have recognized this
fallacy and must now plan development in a more sustainable manner mindful of the
impacts that human activity can have on the basic mechanics of the ecosystem. Twentyfirst century cities and transport networks must be more “sustainable” with less impact on
the atmosphere and the balance of the natural world. This sustainable condition may be
easier to achieve in cities that are not yet fully established, when compared with
established cities born during the global motorization boom that occurred in the second
half of the 20th century.
Motorcycles pose interesting challenges in developing countries that are not faced by the
rest of world (Perco, World Bank, 2008). In the last fifteen years the numbers of
motorcycles per capita in many developing nations has doubled (World Bank, 2006). The
vehicles are attractive as incomes of families in the region rise, providing an affordable
mobility option that is not otherwise available. They provide door-to-door capability,
unmatched navigability in congested road conditions, ease of parking, capacity for
passengers and luggage at low cost. Elsewhere, with the recent escalation of petroleum
prices, interest and use of motorcycles is growing worldwide. Compared with
automobiles, motorcycles offer superior maneuverability, braking and acceleration that
generally give their operators confidence to operate at higher speeds. Studies indicate that
compared with automobiles, motorcycles offer superior maneuverability, braking and
acceleration that generally give their operators confidence to operate at higher speeds.
Studies indicate that motorcycles tend to operate at average speeds 10 kph faster than
autos using the same streets and roadways (Perco 2008).
Approximately one-quarter of urban trips in Developing Asia are made with nonmotorized modes. However, the fraction of non-motorized trips is generally decreasing
where street space is scarce and competition from proliferating motorized modes makes
non-motorized travel less safe. Non motorized trips are especially vulnerable to
displacement from mixed traffic streets. Public policies in some cities have shifted in the
last few decades to discourage some or all non-motorized modes. Increased motorization,
2
in all nations, has tended to reduce the utility and availability of street network space for
non-motorized transport. As a result, walking and cycling everywhere is much more
dangerous (Badami, 2007).
1.0.1
Motorcycle Revolution
Motorcyclists have an especially poor safety record when compared to other road user
groups. Their killed and serious injury rate in the UK, per million vehicle kilometers, is
approximately twice that of pedal cyclists and over 16 times that of car drivers and
passengers. Motorcyclists make up less than 1% of vehicle traffic but their riders suffer
14% of total deaths and serious injuries on Britain’s roads (DETR, 2000).
In 1999 a motorcyclist was killed or seriously injured for every 665,894 kilometers
ridden. Car drivers, however, covered an average of 18,661,626 kilometers before a
serious injury or death occurred. According to these figures, in 1999 motorcyclists were
approximately 28 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured on the roads in Great
Britain than car drivers. Chesham et al. (1993) compared distance travelled with injuries
sustained and found that in 1990 a motorcyclist was 35 times more likely to be killed or
seriously injured than a car driver. Although the figures have improved over the last 10
years, the risk factor for motorcyclists when compared to car drivers is still very high. It
is important to remember that, compared in an accident; a motorcyclist is much more
vulnerable to personal injury than a car driver. Safety and accident avoidance for
motorcyclists is therefore of paramount importance.
A similar picture is given by research in other countries. Motorcycle riders in New
Zealand accounted for approximately 20% of fatalities and 25% of hospitalizations for
road traffic accidents as a whole, but motorcycles represented only 5% of licensed
vehicles and accounted for only 1.4% of estimated total vehicle mileage in that country
(Reeder et al., 1999). Young male riders, in particular, were identified as a problem;
riders aged 15–24 years accounted for 67% of all motorcycle accident fatalities. This led
to the introduction of a graduated licensing scheme in New Zealand, which has reportedly
reduced casualties in the target group of 15–19 year olds by 22%, though this mainly
occurred by reducing that groups’ overall exposure to motorcycle riding. Research in
Norway by Kopjar (1999) investigated young riders’ moped accidents, the use of mopeds
3
in that country apparently being relatively widespread in the 16– 17 year old age group.
Kopjar (1999) discovered that moped-related accidents accounted for 50% of
hospitalizations for traffic accidents as a whole, and that 43% of moped accidents were
single vehicle incidents. He concluded that moped injuries were a serious problem in late
adolescence, and that road safety professionals often overlooked the moped problem.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Very little research has been done in this country on the impact of the motorcycle
revolution .This is irrespective of whether the impacts are positive or negative. Many of
the users of motorcycles for motorcycle taxi business, however, are from the majorly
poor population of Kenyans. In virtually all the urban areas there has been an upsurge in
the use of motorcycle taxis as a mode of transport for both human beings and goods .The
resplendent problem of urban growth of having gridlock jams has necessitated the quick
solution of using motorcycles as an alternative mode of transport as a solution to quick
mobility .
Majority of the feeder roads into estates and peri urban settlements are not navigable by
other modes of public transport .The motorcycle is able to navigate these roads with ease
thus emerging as the main choice of transport.
With the lure of quick monetary gains on a daily basis ,majority of the urban and peri
urban poor have embraced this mode of transport as a household solution to their
livelihoods .They have therefore readily gone into the business without due training in
terms of business management and training on driving and traffic rules .This has resulted
in a high rate of accidents .These accidents have deleterious effects on the bikers
,passengers and other road users .Most of the victims are poor and have no accident
cover insurances or health insurance cover .This results in the depletion of the minimal
resources the households have as they sell some of their property to get medical services
.In some cases the bikers are unable to repay the loans procured to purchase the
motorcycles thus losing their only source of income.
The large number of motorcycle taxis points to a propoor economic activity that has the
opportunity of bettering the livelihoods of the urban poor through micro financing
4
activities .Most have saving schemes that are not elaborate thus losing the opportunity to
use economies of scale to better their livelihoods.
Table 1: DATA ON INJURIES RESULTING FROM MOTORCYCLES IN
THIKA, 2011
DATA ON INJURIES RESULTING FROM MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS IN
THIKA ,2011
jan.
feb.
march april may
june
july
aug
sept
Totals
fatal
7
11
8
6
14
21
3
11
3
84
serious
16
12
11
20
10
6
8
7
17
107
slight
4
5
8
4
9
7
4
11
2
54
victims
10
6
11
3
4
8
9
10
4
65
monthly totals
37
34
38
33
37
42
24
39
26
310
37
71
109
142
179
221
245
284
310
cumulative
totals
Source: Thika Traffic Police, 12.10.2011
The number of fatalities as at 30th September, 2011 was 84 and the serious injuries were
107.Thus over 60% of the accidents resulted in serious or fatal injuries.
Motorcycle accidents have somewhat different characteristics when compared with other
vehicle groups, accidents involving running off the road on bends, and accidents that are
related specifically to the sort of manoeuvres that motorcycles can perform, overtaking
other traffic without crossing the centre line or ‘filtering’ between lines of traffic.
Preusser et al. (1995) found that a subset of fatal motorcycle accidents with
characteristics similar to these accounted for around 85% of the total, in a sample of over
2,000 such accidents.
Chesham et al. (1993) reviewed the changing focus of research activity in the area of
motorcycle safety. They found two main periods of time with a different emphasis. The
5
first period was based on actual accident analysis in which control factors that contribute
to the severity of motorcycle accidents were examined (such as drink driving).
In most urban areas in Kenya there is a marked increase in the use of motorcycles as a
mode of transport. Currently Nakuru municipality has got 6000 registered motor cycle
operators. The times of operations though variable depending on the urban area, range
between 4 am to 11pm though there are areas where they operate 24 hours like Nakuru
and Kisumu. Previous researchers have identified various problems related with the
revolution of motorcycle in various part of the world ranging from health related
problems, increase in crime rate as they are used to ferry gangs, motorcycles flouting
traffic regulations, overload by carrying more than one passenger and increased road
accidents among others . To the researcher knowledge no known local study has ever
been conducted in Kenya to evaluate the various effects of motorcycle revolution in
Kenya and various problems associated with it, this study seeks to fill the existing
research gap by conducting a study on the effects of motorcycle revolution in Kenya with
special reference to Thika town.
1.3 Research Objectives
The general objective of the study was to investigate the effects of motorcycle revolution
on the economic growth in Kenya with reference to Thika town. The specific objectives
were:
1.3.1
To establish the effect of motorcycle revolution on economic growth.
1.3.2
To evaluate the effects of motorcycle revolution on health and safety.
1.3.3
To determine the effect of motorcycle revolution on traffic rules.
1.4 Research Questions
1.4.1 What are the effects of motorcycle revolution on economic growth?
1.4.2 How does motorcycle revolution affect health and safety of users?
1.4.3 What is the effect of motorcycle e revolution on traffic rules?
6
1.5 Significance of the Study
It
will be of great of importance to various stakeholders in the motorcycle industry in
Kenya.
It will help motorcycle users in knowing the various risks involved in using the
motorcycle as a mode of transport, as the study has documented the various health risks
involved in using motorcycle as means of transport.
It will be of great importance to the traffic police department in the country as it has
sought to determine various problems of motorcycle revolution associated with flouting
of traffic regulations, this will help the traffic department in coming up with regulations
and policies that will reduce motorcycle accidents and ensure adherence with traffic rules.
The findings will help various government agencies in coming up with strategies that
will reduce level of road accidents associated with motorcycle in Kenya , as these
accidents negatively affect the economy , this will have positive impact on the country’s
economy .
The findings will help micro financing institutions set in place training programs to
enhance the economic liberation of hundreds of thousands of motorcycle traders across
the country as a social enterprise transformation.
The study will be of great importance to motorcycle manufacturing firms in addressing
the issue of safety in relation to protective gear and sensitization of users on the use of the
gear.
This study will be of significance to motorcycle owners on the need to upscale their
SACCOs so as to have financial mobility of plausible investment into shuttle transport
systems in the Greater Nairobi Metropolis among other investments.
It is significant to note that the insurance industry and particularly the emerging micro
insurance industry will benefit in knowing the great investment opportunities benefit in
the motorcycle transport economy.
This study will be of significance to driving schools in relation to the training of
motorcyclists. More significant will be the lessons learnt by the ministry of public health
and the community at large from the findings of the research
7
1.6 Scope and delimitations of the study
The study examined the effects of motorcycle revolution in Kenya with references to
Thika town; the target population had respondents who included bikers in Thika town,
medics from Thika municipal hospital and traffic police officers from the traffic police
department in Thika. The study looked at various effects of motorcycle revolution
including their contribution to economic growth, the health and safety aspects and effects
on traffic rules.
The effect of motorcycle transport on users other than the motorcycle taxi businessmen
was not undertaken. This could have added more information and insight into the effects
of the motorcycle transport revolution.
The effects of the motorcycle transport revolution on security was not undertaken .There
has been several cases in the country where crimes have been committed with the mode
of transport used by the criminals being the motorcycle as a disguise owing to the rare
case of flagging down by traffic police officers.
1.7 Operational Definition of Terms
Economic development; economic and social opportunities and benefits that result in
positive multipliers effects such as better accessibility to markets,
employment and additional investments.
Cities on the move; Cities in the developing world are growing rapidly; with this growth
comes increased traffic.
Level of service (LOS); is a measure used by traffic engineers to determine the
effectiveness of elements of transportation infrastructure. LOS is most commonly used to
analyze highways by categorizing traffic flow with corresponding safe driving conditions.
Motorcycle: a single-track, two-wheeled motor vehicle. Motorcycles vary considerably
depending on the task for which they are designed, such as long distance
8
travel, navigating congested urban traffic, cruising, sport and racing, or
off-road conditions.
Motorcyclists: People who ride motorcycles, including off-road. Passengers are called
riders.
Traffic safety: is an indication of how safe individual users are on some particular road,
or on the roads belonging to some region. The main danger to road users
is the likelihood of a traffic collision.
Motorcycle Accidents: motorcycle accidents often result in severe injuries to the
operator and any passenger. Because insurance companies often blame the
operator for some type of fault, it is important to know your legal rights.
Road traffic safety: an indication of how safe individual users are on some particular
road, or on the roads belonging to some region. The main danger to road
users is the likelihood of a traffic collision.
Per million vehicle kilometers: this is the number of kilometers occupied by one million
vehicles
9
Chapter Two.
2.0 Literature Review
2.1 Introduction
It is widely understood that transport technology and urban form are inextricably
intertwined. The design of cities and transport networks paid little, or no, attention to the
impacts of human development on the underlying health of the natural environment. It
was tacitly assumed that the capacity of the earth to absorb our waste and provide us with
resources is essentially boundless. As human populations have skyrocketed we have
recognized this fallacy and must now plan development in a more sustainable manner
mindful of the impacts that human activity can have on the basic mechanics of the
ecosystem. Twenty-first century cities and transport networks must be more “sustainable”
with less impact on the atmosphere and the balance of the natural world. Urban travelers
in the Developing countries make only 10% of trips by private automobile but nearly one
quarter by motorcycle .Outside this region the motorcycle mode share is so low as to be
statistically negligible. Latin America urban transport is dominated by shared public
modes. In North America, the car is king. In Europe, with many cities from the preindustrial age, travel by non-motorized modes is greatest. Two in five urban trips in
Europe are made by non-motorized means.
Motorcycles pose interesting challenges in Developing countries that are not faced by the
rest of world. Motorcycle comprise 95% of the nation’s private motor vehicle fleet in
Vietnam, 84% in Asia, 76% in Cambodia, 28% in Italy and only 4% in the United States
(Perco , World Bank, 2008). In the last fifteen years the numbers of motorcycles per
capita in many Developing Asian nations has doubled (World Bank, 2006). The vehicles
are attractive as incomes of families in the region rise, providing an affordable mobility
option that is not otherwise available. They provide door-to-door mobility, unmatched
navigability in congested road conditions, ease of parking, capacity for passengers and
luggage at low cost.. In mixed traffic with automobiles, each bike tends to use as much
10
roadway capacity as an auto at congestion levels above Level of Service F. But when
roads are most congested and traffic is slowed to crawl, motorcycle speeds and
throughput are much higher than automobiles stuck in the same traffic.
The proliferation of two- and three-wheeled motorcycles has raised problems with air
quality and safety. Their two-cycle engines are inexpensive, easy to maintain, and make
efficient use of fuel but are not clean burning. The crashworthiness and stability of the
vehicles are an obvious concern that tends to dominate much of the urban transport
literature concerning these vehicles. In Developing countries, pedestrians and cyclists
count for the majority of road accident deaths despite the fact that they contribute the
least to them (Badami, 2007).
2.2 Effects of Motorcycle Revolution on economic growth
Motorcyclists have an especially poor safety record when compared to other road user
groups. Their killed and serious injury rate per million vehicle kilometres is
approximately twice that of pedal cyclists and over 16 times that of car drivers and
passengers. Motorcyclists make up less than 1% of vehicle traffic but their riders suffer
14% of total deaths and serious injuries on Britain’s roads (DETR, 2000). Chesham et al.
(1993) compared distance travelled with injuries sustained and found that in 1990 a
motorcyclist was 35 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured than a car driver.
Although the figures have improved over the last 10 years, the risk factor for
motorcyclists when compared to car drivers is still very high. It is important to remember
that, compared in an accident; a motorcyclist is much more vulnerable to personal injury
than a car driver. Safety and accident avoidance for motorcyclists is therefore of
paramount importance.
A similar picture is given by research in other countries. Motorcycle riders in New
Zealand accounted for approximately 20% of fatalities and 25% of hospitalizations for
road traffic accidents as a whole, but motorcycles represented only 5% of licensed
vehicles and accounted for only 1.4% of estimated total vehicle mileage in that country
(Reeder et al., 1999). Young male riders, in particular, were identified as a problem;
11
riders aged 15–24 years accounted for 67% of all motorcycle accident fatalities. This led
to the introduction of a graduated licensing scheme in New Zealand, which has reportedly
reduced casualties in the target group of 15 to 19 year olds by 22%, though this mainly
occurred by reducing that groups’ overall exposure to motorcycle riding.
Kopjar (1999) investigated young riders’ moped accidents, the use of mopeds Norway
apparently being relatively widespread in the 16 to 17 year old age group. Kopjar
discovered that moped-related accidents accounted for 50% of hospitalizations for traffic
accidents as a whole, and that 43% of moped accidents were single vehicle incidents. He
concluded that moped injuries were a serious problem in late adolescence, and that road
safety professionals often overlooked the moped problem.
Chesham et al. (1993) reviewed the changing focus of research activity in the area of
motorcycle safety. They found two main periods of time with a different emphasis. The
first period covering the 1970s was based on actual accident analysis in which control
factors that contribute to the severity of motorcycle accidents were examined (such as
drink driving). The second period in the 1980s considered the actual process of
motorcycle riding, focusing on, for example, rider skills. They go on to say that the 1990s
brought a third area of consideration in which riders’ beliefs and attitudes about road
safety are being considered.
Mannering and Grodsky (1995) point out several reasons why the characteristics of
motorcycle accidents differ from those of other vehicles. Firstly, they claim car drivers
‘tend to be inattentive with regard to motorcyclists and have conditioned themselves to
look only for other cars as possible collision dangers’. Motorcyclists themselves often
repeat anecdotal stories of the car driver’s ‘sorry I didn’t see you’ explanation for
collisions. Secondly, Mannering and Grodsky (1995) also claim that motorcycle
operation is typically a more complex task than car driving, requiring excellent motor
skills, physical co-ordination and balance. Motorcycle riding can also involve
counterintuitive
skills,
such
as
‘counter-steering,
simultaneous
application
of
mechanically separate front and rear brakes, and opening the throttle while negotiating
turns’. Any impairment (for example, from medication or alcohol) would therefore more
12
greatly affect a motorcyclist’s risk of an accident when compared with a similar level of
impairment while car driving.
Sun et al. (1999) have argued that, for this reason, legal blood alcohol levels should be
lower for motorcyclists than the level set for other drivers in the USA. Mannering and
Grodsky (1995) also state that, because motorcycle riding is well known to be a
dangerous activity, it ‘may tend to attract risk-seeking individuals, in all age and socioeconomic categories’, which would have a corresponding effect on the total motorcycle
accident figures. Some evidence of another aspect of risk seeking among motorcyclists
was found by Sunderstrom et al. (1999) in their study of casualties at a US hospital’s
trauma centre. They discovered evidence that the use of illegal pharmaceuticals had
declined markedly in car driver casualties over a 10 year period, but not among
motorcycle rider casualties. In addition, the use of alcohol, cocaine and PCP (‘angel
dust’) was found to be higher among injured motorcyclists than among injured car
drivers.
Hurt et al.’s (1981) study found that, in multiple vehicle accidents, the driver of the other
vehicle violated the motorcyclist’s right of way and caused the accident in two-thirds of
all such accidents. Keskinen et al. (1998) found that older drivers have problems at
intersections but seem to be able to cope with other traffic situations comparatively better
than younger drivers. Young, middle-aged and older male drivers’ habits at T-junctions
were examined, the focus of interest being on the attention and interaction between
drivers of different age groups. Time differences were noted (i.e. the time passing from
the moment the turning driver had completed his/her turn until the opponent driver on the
main road reached the centre of the intersection). Two notable conclusions were reached.
Firstly, older drivers have a habit of driving and accelerating slowly, and accelerating
slowly may shorten the time difference when entering the main road. Young
drivers/riders, on the other hand, tend to travel faster. ‘An older driver turning and a
young driver approaching could therefore create a potentially dangerous combination
with a low safety margin’ (Kestinen et al. 1998). Crucially, time differences were also
found to be particularly short when the opponent driver was riding a motorcycle.
13
Much of the literature suggests that rider attitudes and the perception of the risks involved
in motorcycling are the most important consideration when deciding to what extent
motorcyclists are at risk from injury compared with other road users. Mannering and
Grodsky (1995) surveyed motorcyclists’ perceived likelihood of being involved in an
accident and concluded that motorcyclists do have a reasonable grasp of factors that can
increase the likelihood of accident involvement, highlighting in particular miles ridden,
speeding and dangerous overtaking maneuvers. Their findings suggest that, for the most
part, motorcycle accidents are not the result of misjudgment regarding the overall risk of
motorcycling.
Everett et al. (2001), however, examined national trends in transportation-related injury
risk and safety behaviors among high school students, and they found that many young
people place themselves at unnecessary risk from motor vehicle and bicycle related crash
injuries and fatalities because of drink driving and the improper use of safety equipment
(including motorcycle helmet use). Cross-national differences in risk-perceptions in
Japan and the US were examined by Hayakawa et al. (2000) who found that objective
differences in risk environments combine with cultural influences, which, in turn, leads to
differences in risk perception. Raising a motorcyclist’s perception of risk would,
therefore, seem to be a logical way of improving a motorcyclist’s riding behaviour.
2.3 Theoretical framework
It is widely agreed that automobile safety regulations such as using seat belts, installing
air bags or wearing helmets reduce fatalities among automobile occupants in the event of
an accident. There have been a number of empirical studies attempting to examine the
effects of automobile safety regulations on motor vehicle-related fatalities. Some argues
that the overall effect on fatalities might be insignificant or even positive. Peltzman
(1975) finds that auto safety regulation has not affected the highway death rate. Using
time-series data for the United States, Peltzman emphasizes that drivers have offset safety
regulation by taking greater accident risk which causes a shift of the burden of accidents
from drivers to pedestrians. Peltzman concludes that although there has been a long term
decline in the highway death rate and a reduction in the probability of accident, there has
14
not been a reduction in deaths per accident. Peltzman’s findings support the concept of
compensating behavior which implies that drivers with safety equipped motor vehicles
drive more recklessly, and safety regulations such as seat belt and helmet use may also
cause drivers to drive more recklessly.
A number of studies have examined the effect of helmet laws on motorcyclist fatalities.
Early studies that were done soon after the motorcycle helmet laws began to be adopted
in 1966 in the United States use simple before and after or cross-state comparisons and
estimate that helmet laws reduce motorcyclist fatality rate by 24% to 50% (Sass and
Leigh, 1991). From 1975-1978, twenty-four states repealed their helmet laws so
researchers started examining the influence of the repeal of helmet use laws on
motorcyclist fatalities. Watson, Zador and Wilks (1980) measured the effect of the repeal
of helmet use laws on motorcyclist mortality in the United States between 1975 and 1978.
Using statistical methods, Watson, Zador and Wilks (1980) matched the states that
repealed or weakened their helmet laws with one or more states from the same
geographic region that either did not have helmet laws or did not change such existing
laws.
Watson, Zador and Wilks find that the repeals or weakening the helmet law increased the
number of motorcyclist deaths and the number of fatally injured motorcyclists. Sass and
Zimmerman (2000) employ data over a 22-year period to study the impact of helmet laws
on motorcyclist fatalities and they consistently find that quantitatively large increase in
fatalities are associated with repeal of helmet laws. Adoption of helmet laws and
reinstatement of previously repealed helmet laws significantly reduced the motorcyclist
fatalities by 29-33%. Sass and Zimmerman (2000) regressed the number of motorcyclist
fatalities per capita on whether the state has a helmet law and other variables such as
local temperature, registered motorcycles per capita, alcohol consumption per capita,
maximum speed limit and other variables with year and state fixed effects. According to
Sass and Zimmerman (2000), the efficacy varies directly with the warmth of a state
climate since voluntary helmet wearing rates are higher in harsher climates.
Sass and Leigh (1991) examine the impact of having helmet laws on fatality rate and find
that fatality rates states with helmet laws would on average be less than 1% lower than
for states without laws. Sass and Leigh argue that existing econometric studies of the
15
efficacy of motorcycle helmet laws assume that such laws are exogenously determined
and may therefore yield biased results. Sass and Leigh use a selectivity model in which
the choice of having a helmet law is endogenous. Sass and Leigh conclude that the
greater the reduction in fatality rates the more likely a state would have a helmet law.
Modeling legislative change requires accounting for the preexisting legal environment.
“In such a model with lagged values of the dependent variable it is difficult to distinguish
between situations where the existence of a law has an impact on its retention (true “state
dependence”) and simple serial correlation” (Sass and Zimmerman, 2000).
Branas and Knudson (2000) investigate motorcyclist death rates between states with
motorcyclist helmet laws and those without. Using a least squared regression model
Branas and Knudsaon (2000) find that the existence of motorcyclist helmet law does
lower the motorcycle riders’ death rates after controlling for other factors that affect
motorcyclist fatalities (most notably population density and temperature). Similar studies
have been done in the United States examining the effect of seat belt laws on traffic
fatalities. Garbacz (1992) estimates the effectiveness of seat belt laws on traffic fatalities
using cross sectional data. Garbacz (1992) suggests that seat belt laws have no significant
effect on total or occupant fatalities but it leads to increased non occupant deaths possibly
as a result of more dangerous driving.
Calkins and Zlatoper (2001) studied the presence of offsetting behavior and assert that
when drivers feel safer, they compensate by driving less cautiously. Using two years
(1988 and 1997) of state level data, Calkins and Zlatopers (2001) regressed total and non
occupant motor vehicle deaths. The findings are consistent with the off-setting behavior
hypothesis. Cohen and Einav (2003) investigate the effectiveness of mandatory seat belt
laws in reducing traffic fatalities. Cohen and Einav (2003) analyze how much laws, by
influencing seat belt use, affect the incidence of traffic fatalities. The results suggest that
the seat belt laws lower overall traffic fatalities by increasing seat belt usage. Cohen and
Einav (2003) do not find significant support for the offsetting behavior hypothesis.
16
2.3.1 Collision Avoidance Models
The collision avoidance models assume that the following vehicle will maintain a safety
distance to the vehicle in front and will select its speed to ensure the vehicle can stop
safely to avoid a rear-end collision. Such models (Kometani and Sasaki, 1959; Gipps,
1981) are developed based on the equations of motion. However, this type of models has
been criticized in that the vehicles cannot react properly to the unexpected movement of
the preceding vehicles. For example, it is easy to cause a rear-end collision when the
preceding vehicle brakes suddenly (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). To tackle this
issue, Gipps (1981) developed a model within which the extra safety reaction time and
safety headway margin were introduced. The parameters in his following model
corresponded to the characteristics of drivers directly and thus were not necessary to be
calibrated. When realistic values were assigned to the parameters, this model was able to
represent the characteristics of real traffic flow such as the propagation of disturbances.
The Gipps-like model has played an important role in the field of traffic simulation and
also has been employed in many traffic simulation packages, MULTSIM (Gipps, 1986b),
SUMO (Krauss, 1998), AIMSUN (Barceló, 2001) and SIGSIM (Silcock, 1993).
In addition to describing the longitudinal following behaviour, the collision avoidance
models can be adapted to describe the lateral movement of vehicles. Gunay (2007) tried
to integrate the lateral offset of the following vehicle into the Gipps following model.
This study could be the first one to discuss the two-dimensional movement of carfollowing behaviour. It also shows that the collision avoidance models allow the
flexibility in altering the kinematic properties.
Brackstone et al. (2002) found that the minimum desired following distance was far
lower than believed when they investigate the parameters for the action point model
Therefore, they questioned that Newtonian mechanics could fail to describe such a short
headway. This finding offered a challenge to the validity of the collision avoidance
models. However, when a driver is following closely, he should be more alert and his
reaction time would be shorter than usual. In addition, if the driver expects a low
deceleration difference to the preceding vehicle, an extremely short headway still can be
described by a collision avoidance model.
17
2.4 Conceptual Framework
Figure 1: Conceptual framework
Independent Variables
Economic growth
Independent
Variables
•
increased earnings
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Dependent Variables
bettered livelihoods
public private partnerships
training in health sector
training of police officers
investments in infrastructure
transfer technology
assembly and manufacturing
points
Sustainable urban motor cycle
transport for economic development
Health and Safety
•
•
•
•
•
helmets
reflectors
free clinics
ambulances
insurance
Traffic Rules
•
•
•
•
training of traffic officers
driving schools
decentralizing of testing schools
public private partnerships
Source; Author (2011)
2.4.1 Motorcycle and economic growth
Non-motorized transport (NMT) is central to the issue of sustainable transportation.
Among the more arguably important aspects of NMT that are sometimes overlooked are
bicycle transportation development and accompanying policy reform. Given the fact that
the majority of the world’s poor do not have access to motorized transport, it has been
well noted that this should not be the only mode considered for development in Africa,
the world’s poorest region (Leinbach, 2000; Mozer, 2000; World Bank, 2002). Indeed,
the last of ten major urban NMT strategy elements that the World Bank reviews in Cities
on the Move provides some impetus for this study: “development of small-scale credit
18
mechanisms for finance of bicycles in poor countries” (World Bank, 2002, 134).
Although the emphasis herein lies not on internal credit mechanisms in particular, the
market conditions for bicycle sales and promotion in two very different, yet neighboring
countries, Ghana and Togo, are analyzed and compared.
The World Bank has made some studies regarding non-motorized transport in the urban
periphery in Sub-Saharan Africa (Starkey et al, 2002), yet scant academic research has
focused on the intermediate technology of bicycles and bike trailers. World Bank
researchers note that a wide variety of factors influence differences in rural
transportation: “population density, culture, income, topography, climate, or crops and
animals” (Starkey et al, 2002, 22).
Some of these same factors, particularly demographics and income, influence choices in
urban transport. Just as secondary African cities are often economically linked to primary
cities, there is close interdependence with peripheral rural areas that supply agricultural
goods, thereby ensuring regional food security. Combined with the general weakness of
rural transportation systems in Sub-Saharan Africa, it would therefore seem essential to
consider peri urban NMT when discussing urban transit. World Bank reports show a clear
link between NMT and the reduction of poverty in both rural and urban settings (Starkey
et al, 2002; World Bank 2002). Among the more successful decentralized, cooperative
projects focused on bicycle transport is the recent work conducted by the Institute for
Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP). ITDP has been active in Africa for over
twenty years, with particular success in Ghana (Gauthier, 2005; Gauthier and Hook,
2005).
2.4.2 Traffic safety and health
There has been an alarming increase in traffic fatalities in developing countries over the
past three decades. While there is considerable debate in all countries about the exact
number of traffic injuries, the main point here is that the full extent of the traffic safety
problem is far greater than the number of fatalities indicates. All studies agree that
19
injuries are many times more numerous than fatalities, and can cause social and economic
problems that rival those of death. Similar to most other transport problems, the poor
suffer more than other income classes from traffic dangers. Since they make most of their
trips by walking or cycling, they are particularly vulnerable in any traffic crashes. Mohan
(2002) documents, traffic deaths and injuries can have devastating financial and social
consequences for poor families in India. Lacking any health insurance, they must either
forgo professional medical treatment of injuries or sell what little they own to pay for
treatment. Lost income from parents killed or seriously injured in traffic crashes can force
children out of school and into the workplace, thus affecting future generations as well.
Clearly, the sharp rise in motorization is one of the main reasons for the alarming
increase in traffic fatalities. Studies show that the likelihood of death in traffic crashes
increases sharply with increased speed, and motor vehicles can obviously travel much
faster than non-motorized modes. In both countries, the rising danger posed by increased
motorization is compounded by inadequate road supply, unsafe vehicles and driving
behavior, sharing of roads by motorized and non-motorized vehicles, overcrowding of
vehicles, and inadequate or non-existent traffic signals, signs, and traffic management.
Whatever the safety problem encountered by car occupants, it is far exceeded by the
much more dangerous situation facing motorcyclists, bicyclists, and pedestrians. Walking
is especially dangerous in Indian cities, where over half of all traffic fatalities are
pedestrians (World Bank, 2002). That is twice as high as the pedestrian share of traffic
fatalities in China (25%) and is probably attributable to the lack of sidewalks, pedestrian
crossings, and pedestrian traffic signals in Indian cities.
Each year more than 500000 people die in road accidents around the world (Mannan and
Karim, 1998). The majority of these deaths (about 70%) occur in developing countries,
65% of deaths involve pedestrians and 35% of pedestrian deaths are children. About 1520 million people suffer severe injuries. The “Study Global Burden of Disease”
undertaken by the World Health Organization (WHO), Harvard University, and World
20
Bank, showed that traffic accidents were the world’s ninth biggest cause of deaths during
1990. The study forecasts that by the year 2020, road accidents would move up to third
place in the table of major causes of death and disability (Murry and Lopez, 1994).
2.4.3 Motor cycle and traffic rules
It is common for a motorcyclist to share the lateral lane space with other vehicles because
the width of a motorcycle (0.75 m) accounts for only around 25% of the lane width (3 m).
Many studies have observed this behaviour pattern. For example, Branston (1977)
investigated the headway of vehicles and reported that the measurement of motorcycles’
headways was difficult because of their ability of travelling alongside another vehicle in
the same lane. Other studies such as Robertson (2003), Chandra and Kumar (2003),
Arasan and Koshy (2003), Cho and Wu (2004) and Minh et al. (2006) have also
described this behaviour pattern.
Motorcycle can follow another vehicle at an oblique position due to their narrowness and
small size. As the typical width of a lane is far larger than the need of motorcycles, they
do not necessarily keep to the centre of a lane. As a result, when following a vehicle,
motorcycles enjoy the freedom to choose the lateral positions in a lane. Thus, it is often to
observe that a motorcycle follows a vehicle at an oblique position. By doing so, the
motorcyclist can get a better field of view and have a better chance to filter, overtake or
avoid a potential collision. Robertson (2003) described this following pattern as “echelon
formation”. Arasan and Koshy (2003) reported that the vehicles in mixed traffic had
“zero headways”. Although they did not mention the reasons, such short headways could
be due to motorcycles’ oblique following or lateral following. Cho and Wu (2004)
described this behaviour pattern when they tried to model the motorcycle behaviour in
mixed-traffic flow.
Filtering is the behaviour of moving through the lateral clearances between slow moving
or stationary vehicles. It can be considered as a series of overtaking movements by using
dynamic virtual lanes. Such behaviour pattern has been pointed out in many studies
(Hurdle, 1997; Oketch, 2000; Wigan, 2001; Robertson, 2002; MRA, 2006). Due to the
21
narrowness of motorcycles, they enjoy the advantage of filtering through the traffic under
the situations that cars cannot (Elliott et al., 2003). Minh et al. (2006) tried to employ the
concept of ‘dynamic lane’ to describe the filtering behaviour of motorcycles.
Swerving or weaving is a typical behaviour pattern of motorcycles which mixed
longitudinal and lateral movements. When a motorcyclist is weaving in and out of the
traffic, it seems that the vehicles in his surroundings are able to cooperate with this
particular behaviour pattern. Hurdle (1997), Robertson (2002) and Minh et al. (2006)
have introduced this behaviour pattern. It is sometimes followed by an overtaking or
filtering movement. According to Arasan and Koshy (2003) and Minh et al. (2005b),
motorcyclists were likely to maintain short following distances than do car drivers. In
addition, Horswill and Helman (2003) found that motorcycles were more likely to pull
out into small gaps. It seems that motorcycles have higher tolerance for a small following
distance. However, it is still not clear about the reason behind motorcyclists’ tailgating
behaviour.
2.5 Economic Importance of Transportation
Like many economic activities that are intensive in infrastructures, the transport sector is
an important component of the economy impacting on development and the welfare of
populations. When transport systems are efficient, they provide economic and social
opportunities and benefits that result in positive multipliers effects such as better
accessibility to markets, employment and additional investments. When transport systems
are deficient in terms of capacity or reliability, they can have an economic cost such as
reduced or missed opportunities. Transport also carries an important social and
environmental load, which cannot be neglected (Minh et al, 2006). Thus, from a general
standpoint the economic impacts of transportation can be direct and indirect:
Direct impacts related to accessibility change where transport enables larger markets and
enables to save time and costs.
22
Indirect impacts related to the economic multiplier effects where the price of
commodities, goods or services drop and/or their variety increases.
The impacts of transportation are not always intended, and can have unforeseen or
unintended consequences such as congestion. Mobility is one of the most fundamental
and important characteristics of economic activity as it satisfies the basic need of going
from one location to the other, a need shared by passengers, freight and information. All
economies and regions do not share the same level of mobility as most are in a different
stage in their mobility transition (Elliott et al., 2003). Economies that possess greater
mobility are often those with better opportunities to develop than those suffering from
scarce mobility. Reduced mobility impedes development while greater mobility is a
catalyst for development. Mobility is thus a reliable indicator of development.
Providing this mobility is an industry that offers services to its customers, employs
people and pays wages, invests capital and generates income (MRA, 2006). The
economic importance of the transportation industry can thus be assessed from a
macroeconomic and microeconomic perspective:
At the macroeconomic level (the importance of transportation for a whole economy),
transportation and the mobility it confers are linked to a level of output, employment and
income within a national economy. In many developed countries, transportation accounts
between 6% and 12% of the GDP.
At the microeconomic level (the importance of transportation for specific parts of the
economy) transportation is linked to producer, consumer and production costs. The
importance of specific transport activities and infrastructure can thus be assessed for each
sector of the economy (Arasan and Koshy, 2003). Transportation accounts on average
between 10% and 15% of household expenditures while it accounts around 4% of the
costs of each unit of output in manufacturing, but this figure varies greatly according to
sub sectors.
Transportation links together the factors of production in a complex web of relationships
between producers and consumers. The outcome is commonly a more efficient division
23
of production by exploitation of geographical comparative advantages, as well as the
means to develop economies of scale and scope (Horswill and Helman, 2003). The
productivity of space, capital and labor is thus enhanced with the efficiency of
distribution and personal mobility. It is acknowledged that economic growth is
increasingly linked with transport developments, namely infrastructures but also
managerial expertise is crucial for logistics. The following impacts can be assessed:
Networks; setting of routes enabling new or existing interactions between economic
entities.
Performance; improvements in cost and time attributes for existing passenger and freight
movements.
Reliability; improvement in the time performance, notably in terms of punctuality, as
well as reduced loss or damage.
Market size; access to a wider market base where economies of scale in production,
distribution and consumption can be improved.
Productivity; increases in productivity from the access to a larger and more diverse base
of inputs (raw materials, parts, energy or labor) and broader markets for diverse outputs
(intermediate and finished goods).
2.5.1 Transportation and Economic Development
Transportation developments that have taken place since the beginning of the industrial
revolution have been linked to growing economic opportunities. At each stage of human
societal development, a particular transport mode has been developed or adapted.
However, it has been observed that throughout history no single transport has been solely
responsible for economic growth. Instead, modes have been linked with the function and
the geography in which growth was taking place (Elliott et al., 2003). The first trade
routes established a rudimentary system of distribution and transactions that would
eventually be expanded by long distance maritime shipping networks and the setting of
24
the first multinational corporations. Major flows of international migration that occurred
since the 18th century were linked with the expansion of international and continental
transport systems that radically shaped emerging economies such as in North America
and Australia. Transport has played a catalytic role in these migrations, transforming the
economic and social geography of many nations. Concomitantly, transportation has been
a tool of territorial control and exploitation, particularly during the colonial era where
resource-based transport systems supported the extraction of commodities in the
developing world and forwarded them to the industrializing nations of the time (MRA,
2006).
While some regions benefit from the development of transport systems, others are often
marginalized by a set of conditions in which inadequate transportation play a role.
Transport by itself is not a sufficient condition for development; however the lack of
transport infrastructures can be seen as a constraining factor on development. In
developing countries, the lack of transportation infrastructures and regulatory
impediments are jointly impacting economic development by conferring higher transport
costs, but also delays rendering supply chain management unreliable (Robertson, 2003).
Investment in transport infrastructures is thus seen as a tool of regional development,
particularly in developing countries and for the road sector. The standard assumption is
that transportation investments tend to be more wealth producing as opposed to wealth
consuming investments such as services. Still, several transportation investments can be
wealth consuming if they merely provide convenience, such as parking and sidewalks, or
service a market size well below any possible economic return, with for instance projects
labeled "bridges to nowhere". In such a context, transport investment projects can be
counterproductive by draining the resources of an economy instead of creating wealth
and additional opportunities.
There is also a tendency for transport investments to have declining marginal returns.
While initial infrastructure investments tend to have a high return since they provide an
entirely new range of mobility options, the more the system is developed the more likely
additional investment would result in lower returns. At some point, the marginal returns
can be close to zero or even negative, implying a shift of transport investments from
25
wealth producing to wealth consuming. A common fallacy is assuming that additional
transport investments will have a similar multiplying effect than the initial investments
had, which can lead to capital misallocation (Cho and Wu, 2004). This means quite
understandably that the economic impacts of transport investments tend to be significant
when infrastructures were previously inexistent or deficient and marginal when an
extensive network is already present. Therefore, each development project must be
considered independently.
26
Chapter Three
3.0 Research Methodology
3.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the research methodology and covers research design, population,
sampling strategy, data collection tools and data analysis techniques to be employed to
realise the research objectives
3.2 Research Design
Cooper and Schindler (2006) stated that research design is the manner in which data is
collected, measured and analyzed in order to achieve certain research objectives.
Chandran (2004) stated that the research design is a way to accomplish the research
objectives through empirical evidence that is obtained economically. The considerations
that determine the research design to be used include: research purpose, categories of data
required, data sources and the cost implications.
According to Mugenda and Mugenda (1999) a descriptive research is a process of
collecting data in order to answer questions concerning the current status of the subjects
in the study. They point out that the purpose of a descriptive research is to determine and
report the way things are done. Descriptive research is used to obtain information
concerning the current status of the phenomena to describe what exists with respect to
variables or conditions in a situation. The methods involve a range of activities: from the
survey which describes the status quo to the regression study which investigates the
relationship between variables. The primary use of descriptive statistics is to describe
information or data through the use of numbers (create number of pictures of the
information). The characteristics of groups of numbers representing information or data
are called descriptive statistics (Kay, 1997). According to Mugenda and Mugenda (1999)
this type of research attempts to describe such things as possible behavior, attitudes,
values and characteristics. The description of this research design matches with the
objective of this study as the study sought to investigate the effects of motorcycle
revolution on the economic growth in Kenya with reference to Thika town.
27
3.3 Population of the study
This was a descriptive survey with the population of interest consisting of respondents
from various categories i.e. traffic police in Thika police station, medical officers in
Thika general hospital and Bikers in Thika town. Mugenda & Mugenda, (2003), indicate
that purposive sampling allows the researcher to get cases that have the required
information with respect to the objectives of his/her study .The target population of this
study was bikers in Thika district , traffic police officers in Thika police station and
medical officers in Thika general hospital , there are 200 bikers in Thika town (source
Thika Municipal Council) , 28 traffic police officers and 14 qualified medical personnel ,
this makes a target population of 242 respondents who will be used in this study .
3.4 Sample size and Sampling
Through stratified sampling the target population was grouped into three strata, police ,
medical officers and bikers , from within each stratum the researcher used simple
random sampling to select the sample population . Purposive sampling was used to select
7 qualified medical personnel and 10 police officers in the traffic department and 100
bikers in Thika town; this will make sample population of 117 which represent 48.35% of
the entire population, according to Mugenda and Mugenda (2003) a good population
sample is between 10% to 30% of the entire population. Purposive sampling method as
noted by Srivastava et al. (1993) is a deliberate non-random method of sampling which
aims at selecting a sample of people, settings or events with predetermined
characteristics. The sample size was therefore 117 respondents.
Table 2: Sampling frame
Group
Population(frequency) Percentage (%)
Sample size
1
Motorcyclists
200
50
100
2
Medics
14
50
7
3
Traffic police 28
36
10
48.35
117
officers
4
Total
242
28
3.5 Data Collection
Primary data was used in this research study. Survey questionnaires were administered to
all respondents selected for the study in order to gather the primary data and information
on the various aspects of motorcycle revolution. Relevant structured and unstructured
questions were constructed to solicit for the desired data. Some questions were openended and others close-ended .Majority were close-ended. This mode of data collection
using drop-and-pick technique was applied on the sample population of medics and
police officers whereas an interview guide was used for bikers. Secondary data sources
were employed through the use of previous documents or materials to supplement the
data received from questionnaires and information from interviews.
3.6 Reliability of Instruments
The researcher carried out a pilot study in order to test the reliability of the questionnaires
.The results got thereof were used to standardize the questionnaire in line with the
objectives of the study .The main changes were in wordings and responses .In some cases
some items ,found to be repetitive and inappropriate ,were discarded .Relevant changes
were instituted.
3.7 Data Analysis and Presentation
For data collected to be meaningful, it needs to be analyzed in a way that it is easy to be
understood by the common man. This includes analysis of data to summarize the
essential features and relationships of data in order to generalise from the analysis to
determine patterns of behaviour and particular outcomes. Before processing the
responses, the completed questionnaires were edited for completeness and consistency.
The researcher used quantitative techniques in analyzing the data. Descriptive analysis
was employed; which included means, frequencies and percentages. The organised data
was interpreted on account of concurrence to objectives using assistance of computer
packages especially Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 17 to
communicate research findings. The analyzed data was presented in frequency and
percentage tables; this enhanced easier interpretation and understanding
29
Chapter Four
4.0 Data Analysis And Interpretation
4.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the research findings to investigate the effects of motorcycle
revolution on the economic growth in Kenya with reference to Thika town. Descriptive
statistics were used to analyze the data. In the descriptive statistics, relative frequencies
were used in some questions.
4.2 Data analysis and interpretation
Table 3 : Response rate in percentage
Respondents
Population
Percentage
Sample Respondents Response
(%)
size
50
100
93
93
rate (%)
1
Motorcyclists 200
2
Medics
14
50
7
7
100
3
Traffic police 28
36
10
10
100
48.95
117
110
94
officers
4
Total
242
The response rate was commendable as only 6% of the respondents failed to respond to
the questions.
30
Objective 1: To determine the Economic Effects of the motorcycle revolution
Table 4: Occupation before venturing into motorcycle taxi
Occupation
Frequency
Percentage (%)
other
37
39.8
civil servant
40
43.0
casual laborer
13
14.0
Tout
3
3.2
Total
93
100.0
From the findings on the respondent’s occupation before venturing into a motorcycle taxi,
the study found that 43% of the respondents were civil servants , 39.8% of the
respondents indicated they were others , 14% indicated that they were casual laborers
whereas 3.2% indicated that they were touts .
Table 5: Level of monthly salary/wage before venturing into motorcycle taxi
Range (ksh.)
Frequency
Percentage (%)
500-999
5
5.4
1000-4999
7
7.5
5000-6999
7
7.5
7000-8999
20
21.5
9000-10,000
26
28.0
above 10,000
28
30.1
Total
93
100.0
From the findings on the level of monthly salary/wage, the study found that 30.1%
indicated above 10,000, 28% of the respondents indicated 9,000 to 10,000, 21.5% of the
respondents indicated 7000 to 8999, whereas those who indicated 1,000 to 4999 and 5000
31
to 5000 to 6999 were shown by 7.5% in each case whereas 5.4% of the respondents
indicated 500 to 999.
Table 6: Amount earned per month from this business on average in Ksh.
Range (Ksh.)
Frequency
Percentage (%)
5000-6999
2
2.2
9000-9999
14
15.1
10,000-14999
39
41.9
15000-19999
18
19.4
20000-25000
14
15.1
above 25,000
6
6.5
Total
93
100.0
From the findings on the amount earned by the respondents from their business on
average , the study found that 41.9% of the respondents indicated 10,000 to 14,999 ,
those who indicated that they earned between 20,000 to 25,000 and 9000 to 9999 were
shown by 15.1% in each case, 6.5% of the respondents indicated above 25,000 whereas
2.2% of the respondents indicated 5,000 to 6999, this shows that there was an increase in
the earnings as a result of venturing into the motorcycle business enterprises .
Whereas before venturing into the business only 30.1% of respondents were earning
above ksh.10,000, the percentage of respondents earning at least ksh.10,000 after
venturing into the business is 82.7%.This depicts an immense increase in salary/wage for
majority of the respondents.
Table 7: Belonging to any merry go round/saving scheme
Frequency
Percentage (%)
Yes
64
68.8
No
29
31.2
Total
93
100.0
32
On whether the respondent belonged to any merry go round /saving scheme, the study
found that 68.8% of the respondents indicated that they belonged to merry go round
/saving scheme whereas 31.2% of the respondents indicated that they did not belong to
any merry go round /saving scheme .This shows that majority of them belong to merry go
round/saving schemes
Table 8: Amount contributed per month in ksh.
Frequency
Percentage (%)
100-200
5
7.8
200-300
6
9.4
300-500
10
15.6
500-1000
11
17.2
above 1000
32
50.0
Total
64
100.0
On the amount contributed per month for those in the merry go round /saving scheme ,the
study found that 7.8% of the respondents indicated 100 to 200, those who indicated 200
to 300 were shown by 9.4% , those who indicated 300 to 500 were shown by 15.6% and
500 to 1000 were shown by 17.2% and 50% above 1000 in each case .This shows that
majority of them are saving above ksh.1000 per month.
Table 9 Benefits of the contributions to members
Frequency
Percent
given as loans to members
30
46.9
low affordable interest rates
18
28.1
makes members have financial discipline
16
25.0
Total
64
100.0
33
The study revealed that the benefits of contributions to members were;
loans to
members as shown by 46.9% , low affordable interest rates as shown by 28.1% and
making members have a financial discipline as shown by 25.0%.This shows that majority
of the members have an appetite for borrowing.
Table 10: Have a group bank account
Frequency
Percent
Yes
40
43.0
No
53
57.0
Total
93
100.0
On whether the respondent belonged/had a group bank account the study found that 57%
of the respondents indicated that they did not have whereas 43% of the respondents
indicated that they had.
Table 11: Impact of Motorcycle trade on livelihoods
Better livelihood
Frequency
Percent
Yes
89
95.7
No
4
4.3
Total
93
100.0
From the findings on whether motorcycle trade bettered their livelihoods, the study found
that 95.7% of the respondents indicated that it had bettered their livelihoods whereas
4.3% of the respondents indicated that it had not bettered their lives.
This clearly shows that motorcycle taxi business had bettered their livelihoods and that it
is therefore is a vital economic activity.
34
Objective Two: Impact of motorcycle revolution on health and safety
Table 12: Medical checkups per year that is brought by ill health by bikers
Frequency
Percent
Yes
26
28.0
No
67
72.0
Total
93
100.0
On whether the respondents often go for medical checkups per year that is brought by any
ill health, the study found that 72% indicated that they did not go for medical checkup
whereas 28% of the respondents indicated that they went for check up as a result of ill
health.
Table 13: Health conditions suffered arising from continuous use of motorcycle
Frequency
Percent
Yes
51
54.8
No
42
45.2
Total
93
100.0
The study sought to determine whether there was any health condition that the bikers
suffered from arising from the continuous use of the motorcycle, the study found that
majority of the respondents as shown by 54.8% indicated yes, whereas 45.2% of the
respondents indicated no .This shows that majority of the bikers had suffered as result of
continuous use of motorcycle.
35
Table 14: Specific health conditions in percentage
Health condition
Yes
No
chest infection
17.2
82.8
running nose
60.2
39.8
frequent headache
9.7
89.2
teary eyes
65.6
34.4
painful eyes
41.9
58.1
Backaches
66.7
33.3
persistent headache
0
100
A combination of some of the above conditions
100
0
From the findings the study found that all the respondents had a combination of some of
the above conditions as shown by 100%, backaches as shown by 66.7%, teary eyes as
shown by 65.6%, running nose as shown by 60.2%, painful eyes as shown by 41.9%,
chest infection as shown by 17.2% and frequent headache as shown by 9.7%.Thus there
are health risks that the bikers face.
Table 15: Medical attention on the condition/s in Table 14
Frequency
Percentage
Yes
15
16.1
No
78
83.9
Total
93
100.0
On whether the respondent had gone for medical attention in public hospitals on the
condition/s above, the study revealed 83.9% had not, whereas 16.1% of the respondents
indicated that they had gone for medical attention for various health conditions. The
study revealed that respondents went for medical attention in private health facilities.
36
Table 16: Medical care sought for health conditions
Frequency
Percent
over the counter buying of drugs
64
68.8
use of herbal medicine
11
11.8
Others
18
19.4
Total
93
100.0
On the medical care the respondents the study revealed that; 68.8% respondents did over
the counter buying of drugs, others as shown by 19.4% whereas 11.8% indicated use of
herbal medicine.
Table 17: Medical insurance cover
Frequency
Percentage (%)
Yes
2
1.1
No
91
98.9
Total
93
100
The study further revealed that respondents did not have any medical insurance cover as
shown by 98.9% of the respondents
Table 18: Medical officers report on most common health conditions resulting from
motorcycle riding.
Most common health condition.
Frequency
Percentage (%)
Chest infection
4
57.1
Running nose
1
14.3
Eye infections
1
14.3
Backaches
1
14.3
Total
7
100.0
37
The study reveals that majority of the bikers who went to hospital suffer from chest
infections as shown by 57.1% of the medical respondents.
Table 19: Medical officers report on the main orthopaedic conditions in the wards
resulting from motorcycle accidents
Condition
Frequency
%
Multiple fractures
7
100
This shows that there is a 100% chance of multiple fractures in motorcycle accidents
.This gives certainty of serious injuries as earlier indicated in Table 1.
Table 20: Receiving training on motorcycle riding by bikers
Frequency
Percentage (%)
Yes
30
32.3
No
63
67.7
Total
93
100.0
The study further revealed that majority of the respondents had not received training on
motorcycle riding as shown by 67.7% whereas 32.3% of the respondents indicated that
they had received training on motorcycle riding
Table 21: Traffic police feedback on training of bikers
Form of Training for motorcyclists
Frequency
Percentage (%)
Driving school
4
40.0
Informally
6
60.0
Total
10
100.0
38
The study found that majority of the bikers had informal training in riding as shown by
60% of the respondents .Only 40% of the respondents had formal training from a driving
school.
Table 22: Having an accident with the motorcycle
Frequency
Percent
Yes
38
40.9
No
55
59.1
Total
93
100.0
On whether the respondent had any accident with the motorcycle, the study found that
59.1% of the respondents indicated no, whereas 40.9% of the respondents indicated that
they had had accidents with motorcycle. This shows that there was very high level of
motorcycle accidents within the region.
Table 23: Safety measures for motorcyclists
Yes
No
properly maintaining your motorcycle
79.6
20.4
making yourself visible to other road users
60.2
39.8
observing the speed limit
53.8
46.2
not riding while under the influence of drink or drugs
79.6
20.4
using the correct observation techniques
18.3
81.7
correctly positioning your motorcycle according to road conditions
15.1
84.9
not riding while tired
7.5
92.5
Wearing protective clothing/helmets/boots
92.5
7.5
From the findings in the on the safety measures for motorcyclists, the most important are;
wearing protective clothing/helmets/boots as shown by 92.5%, not riding while under the
influence of drink or drugs as shown by 79.6%, properly maintaining your motorcycle as
shown by 79.6%, making yourself visible to other road users as shown by 60.2%,
39
observing the speed limit as shown by 53.8%. Those that were least important were using
the correct observation techniques as shown by 18.3%, correctly positioning your
motorcycle according to road conditions as shown by 15.1 % and not riding while tired as
shown by 7.5%.
Table 24: Category of road user causing motorcyclist to have an accident
Yes
No
motorcyclist
87.1
12.9
Cyclists
0
100
Motorists
62.4
37.6
Pedestrians
39.8
60.2
large commercial vehicle drivers
91.4
8.6
From the findings on the category of road user that would most likely cause a
motorcyclist to have an accident, the study found that these were large commercial
vehicles as shown by 91.4%, the motorcyclists themselves as shown by 87.1%, car
drivers as shown by 62.4% and pedestrians as shown by 39.8%. Cyclists were found not
to cause motorcycle to have accidents as shown by 100% of the respondent who indicated
no.
Table 25: The causes of motorcycle accidents according to the traffic police.
Causes
Yes
No
Overspeeding
100%
0%
Poor training of motorcyclists
70%
30%
Failure to wear reflectors
70%
30%
Riding on wrong road side
50%
50%
Overloading the motor cycle
50%
50%
Failure to use day time head lights
20%
80%
Poor motorcycle maintenance
10%
90%
Motorists
0%
100%
40
The table above shows that overspeeding, poor training and failure to wear reflectors by
the motorcyclists are the major causes of motorcycle accidents. According to the study
most the police indicated that infact most accidents are caused by the motorcyclists
themselves since they do not follow most of the laid down traffic rules as indicated in the
Table 24.
Table 26: Traffic police feedback on compliance with traffic rules by bikers
Does
the
motorcyclist
comply with traffic rules?
frequency
percentage
Yes
1
10.0
No
9
90.0
The study further revealed that majority of the bikers do not comply with traffic rules as
shown by 90% of the traffic police respondents
Table 27: Possession of a valid driving license
Frequency
Percentage
Yes
69
74.2
No
24
25.8
Total
93
100.0
The study sought to determine whether the respondents were in possession of valid
driving license, from the findings the study found that 74.2% of the respondents indicated
that they were in possession of valid driving license whereas 25.8% of the respondent
indicated that they were not in possession of valid driving licenses.
41
Table 28: Frequency of stopping motorcycles for inspection by traffic police
How often do you stop motor cycle for Frequency
Percentage
inspection?
Very often
2
20.0
Often
3
30.0
Rarely
5
50.0
Total
10
100.0
The study revealed that rarely do police officers flag down motorcyclist for inspection as
depicted by 50% of the respondents
Table 29: Distribution of respondent by age group
Age group
Frequency
Percentage
20-24
39
41.9
25-29
29
31.2
30-34
1
1.1
35-39
19
20.4
40-44
5
5.4
Total
93
100.0
From the findings on the distribution of respondents by their age, the study found that
41.9% of the respondents indicated that they were aged between 20 to 24 years, 31.2%
indicated that they were aged between 25 to 29 years, 20.4% of the respondents indicated
that they were aged between 35 to 39 years, 5.4% of the respondents indicated they were
aged between 40 to 44 years whereas 1.1% of the respondents indicated that they were
aged between 30 to 34 years .Majority of those involved in the motorcycle transport trade
are youth,20 – 34, with a percentage of 74.2%.
42
Chapter Five.
5.0 Summary, Conclusion And Recommendations
From the analysis and data collected, the following summary findings, conclusion and
recommendations were made. The responses were based on the objectives of the study.
The researcher had intended to establish the effects of motorcycle transport revolution on
economic growth, to evaluate the effects of motorcycle transport revolution on health and
safety and to determine the effects of motorcycle transport revolution on traffic rules.
5.1.1 Main finding objective 1
The study revealed that majority of the bikers are youths, with ages of between 20 and 34
years as shown by a score of 74.2 % .
From the findings on the level of monthly
salary/wage before venturing into the motorcycle business, the study found that 30.1%
indicated above ksh.10,000, and majority ,69.1 %, earned below ksh.10000 per month.
From the findings on the monthly amount earned by the respondents from their business
on average, the study found that 69.7% of the respondents indicated that they earned at
least ksh.10,000 and above. Whereas before venturing into the business only 30.1% of
respondents were earning above ksh.10,000, the percentage of respondents earning at
least ksh.10,000 after venturing into the business is 82.7%.This depicts an immense
increase in salary/wage for majority of the respondents. This indicates an upward
graduation in earnings, a clear show of economic growth in the households of those in the
motorcycle taxi business
The study found that majority of the respondents belonged to a merry go round /saving
scheme as shown by 68.8%. On the amount contributed per month in the merry go round
the study found that out of the 64 who were in a merry go round/saving scheme, the
majority, 50%, contributed above Ksh.1000 per month .The study revealed that the
benefits of contributions were as follows; given as loans to members, low affordable
43
interest rates and makes members have financial discipline. From the findings on whether
motorcycle trade bettered their livelihoods, the study found that 95.7% of the respondents
indicated that it had bettered their livelihoods. Bettered livelihoods result in better health
which in turn translates to increased chances of productivity a key component towards
economic growth.
5.1.2
Main finding objective 2
The study sought to determine whether there was any health conditions arising from the
continuous use of the motorcycle, the study found that majority of the respondents as
shown by 54.8% indicated yes, this shows that majority of the bikers had suffered as a
result of continuous use of motorcycle. From the findings the study found that a
combination of several health conditions that have been suffered from arising from the
continuous use of the motorcycle. On whether the respondent had gone for medical
attention on the condition/s above, the study revealed 83.9% had not gone for medical
attention. The study revealed that respondents went for medical attention in private health
facilities .The study further revealed that respondents did not have any medical insurance
cover. The study showed that the most common orthopaedic condition in the wards
arising from motorcycle accidents is multiple fractures as shown by the 100% feedback
from medical respondents. The ill effects of use of motorcycles therefore have health
effects on the bikers which need to be addressed so that they do not become a liability to
good health .With poor health the bikers cannot sustain their economic activities thus
negating the economic gains in earnings .Multiple fractures take long to heal thus
rendering one inactive .This results in loss of salary and wages particularly for the poor.
5.1.3
Main finding objective 3
From the findings on the place where the respondents attended motorcycle training the
study found that 67.7% of the respondents indicated an informal training whereas 32.3%
indicated that they attended training at a driving school, this clearly shows that majority
of the bikers did not receive the required training . On the length of time the training took,
the study found that 47.3% of the respondent indicated a few weeks and less than a week,
4.3% of the respondents indicated a month whereas 1.1% of the respondents indicated
44
over two months, this shows that most of the bikers received relatively short training and
thus they were not in a position to get the required training with the short training
duration. The study found that 74.2% of the respondents indicated that they were in
possession of valid driving license whereas 25.8% of the respondents indicated that they
were not in possession valid driving licenses. The study revealed that 64.5% of the
respondents indicated that they were tested by traffic police in order to get driving license
whereas 35.5% of the respondents indicated that they were not tested by traffic police to
get driving licenses. On whether the respondents had any accident with the motorcycle,
the study found that 59.1% of the respondents indicated no whereas 40.9% of the
respondents indicated that they had had an accident with motorcycle. This shows that
there was a very high level of motorcycle accidents within the region. The study also
revealed that the main cause of motorcycle accidents were reckless riding, lack of
reflectors, riding while drunk and neglecting traffic rules .
From the findings on the safety measures for motorcyclists the study found that the most
important are; wearing protective clothing/helmets/boots, not riding while under the
influence of drink or drugs , properly maintaining your motorcycle , making yourself
visible to other road users and observing the speed limit . Those that were least important
were using the correct observation techniques, correctly positioning your motorcycle
according to road conditions and not riding while tired. On the category of road users that
most likely cause a motorcyclist to have an accident, the study found that these were
large commercial vehicles, the motorcyclists, motorists and pedestrians. Cyclists were
found not to cause motorcycles to have accidents.
On how often the biker use the required gear when riding , the study found that majority
of the respondents do not wear protective jacket, respondents never use daytime
headlights, never wear protective trousers and always carry passengers who have no
protective gear. The study also found that respondents occasionally use daytime
headlights, misjudge the speed needed to negotiate a bend in the road, ride while feeling
tired, remember to use your lifesaver, use their cell phones and ride above the speed limit.
Respondents frequently overload and ride while under the influence of drink/drugs, the
study revealed.
45
The study revealed that traffic police officers rarely erect roadblocks along the feeder
roads as shown by a score of 50% of the traffic police respondents.
Failure to follow traffic rules and enforce the same results in accidents that are
preventable .The resultant accidents result in the loss of lives and serious injuries .To
bury the dead the poor families use the little savings and resources that they direly need
for survival .This results in loss of income and hence poor livelihood that denies the
households basic needs .This anchors them into worse livelihood and lower economic
levels of life.
5.2 Conclusions
Harmonizing the economic gains from the revolution in line with the enforcing of traffic
rules is vital .There is need to relook the training curriculum of the riders in order to make
them more conscious of the risks that they face and they cause on other road users .The
economic gains of following traffic rules to themselves and the country at large would be
great ,thus making the revolution a sustainable form of urban transport and economic
liberation .There is need to sensitize the traffic police on the economic potential to
households that the motorcycle taxi business holds .This should be hinged to the dangers
on the health and safety of road users when traffic rules are not enforced by the traffic
officers .A consortium of the motorcyclists ,traffic police and municipal councils should
come together to ensure that there is mutual agreement and ownership of the traffic rules
as a component of economic development .The ministry of health needs to come up with
a partnership with private sector and other relevant ministries to undertake clinics and
trainings on the health hazards of motorcycle ,implications of fracture injuries to health
and consequent effects on economic wellbeing .This will translate into better health and
safer riding cutting on cost of medical care ,loss of life and loss of earning ability.
Technology transfer involving manufacturing and assembly of motorcycle parts with
relevant trading partners would offset the import expenditure thus bettering the balance of
trade, a key component of economic growth and development .Exporting the motorcycle
products and the motorcycles would be a boost to the economy.
46
5.3 Recommendations
The immense economic gains and opportunities from the motorcycle revolution need to
be tapped by the government through economic policies that are in line with the Kenya
Vision 2030.This calls for a wide spectrum of actors as captured in the following
recommendations;
5.3.1 Bringing on board public private partnerships in managing the motorcycle industry
in a manner that is economically viable and sustainable .Since majority of the traders
,74.2%,are youth, then the ministry of youth and sports ,the vision 2030 secretariat,
SMSES ,banking industry ,ministry of transport ,ministry of planning ,universities and
international development partners ,should develop a structure for the training of these
motor cycle taxi businessmen on entrepreneurship , ,business management and availing
of loans should be undertaken .A model of the structure should be piloted in a few urban
centers with a view of replicating it out across all counties within a stipulated span of
time .
5.3.2 A best practice award should be introduced for the counties with a high number of
motorcycle businesses This should then be replicated at a national level. This would
ensure that there are effective and efficient management structures within the motorcycle
SACCOS and the day to day transport practices .In every urban area there should be a
stipulated number of motorcycle SACCOS that the traders must belong to .This would
aid in regulating the riding habits, character and saving schemes.
5.3.3 The insurance industry with its low penetration rate of nearly five 5% needs to
undertake research into the fact that majority of these traders have no insurance covers
.Therein lies a great opportunity to make the business sustainable by acting wisely on the
findings .This could call for innovative insurance packages that would be leveraged by
the partnerships outlined in recommendation 5.4.1 above
47
5.3.4 The ministry of public health and sanitation in partnership with private sector needs
to undertake free clinics to assess the extent of health effects with consequent treatment
.This should also involve the continuous sensitization of the motorcyclists on the need for
protective gear and frequent medical checkups .Past victims of motorcycle accidents
should be involved in the campaign towards safe riding
5.3.5 The traffic police department will need beefing up in terms of officers and
motorcycles in order to enforce traffic rules away from main roads .Regular retraining of
the motorcyclists should be undertaken through partnership among the police service of
each division ,driving schools and motorcycle associations. The police service must
ensure that all the motorcyclists have valid driving licenses .The testing centers should be
decentralized owing to unnecessary costs that hinder the motorcyclists
5.3.6 The ministry of industrialization needs to rethink the importation of motor cycles
and the accessories .This calls for public private partnership that should start assembling
the motorcycles and manufacturing tyres, helmets among other components .This would
offer employment opportunities .It would also serve as a nerve centre for the region and
tilt the balance of trade in favor of Kenya .It would also strengthen the shilling from a
decrease in sum total of expenditure on imports .The consequent economic gains are
immense.
5.3.7 The media, ministry of information and communication, transport, internal security,
education, civil society organizations and international development partners need to
institute a public campaign towards road safety in line with riding of motorcycles towards
all users of the mode of transport .This should involve celebrities, motorcyclists in the
racing sport and the motorcyclists in the taxi business
5.3.8 Further research should be undertaken to find out the link between age of a biker
and the probability of causing an accident
5.3.9 The ministry of transport should have lanes specially designed for motorcycles
along the main roads
48
5.4 Research limitation
The researcher encountered limitations of unbudgeted expenses from some of the
institutions that charged a fee for research .This delayed the collection of data .Some
respondents were hesitant to answer questions .The researcher had to assure them that
this was not a police investigation .The introductory letter from the university aided in
clearing their doubts .Some of the respondents had a busy schedule and this delayed the
collection of the questionnaire.
5.5 Areas of further study
Further research needs to be undertaken on the effect of the age of bikers on motorcycle
accidents.
Another area should be the effect of having saving schemes for the motorcycle taxi
businessmen on their livelihoods
49
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53
APPENDIX
Appendixes A: Motorcycle Questionnaire
SECTION A: PERSONAL DETAILS
1. Please indicate the age group you belong?
20 to 24 ( ) 25 to 29 ( )
45 to 49 ( )
30 to 34 ( ) 35 to 39( )
50 and above
40 to 44( )
( )
………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
SECTION B: EXPERIENCE
2.
How long have you held a motorcycle license?
Less than one year
( )
1 to 2 years
( )
2 to 3 years
( )
More than 3 years
( )
3.
Did you start riding a motorcycle immediately after acquiring your
motorcycle license?
Yes
4.
( )
No
( )
If no, how long was the gap between acquiring your licenses and riding a
motorcycle?
Less than one year
( )
1 to 2 years
( )
2 to 3 years
( )
More than 3 years
( )
5.
Since you have been riding a motorcycle have there been any periods of time
when you have not had access to (or have chosen not to ride) a motorcycle?
Yes
( )
No
( )
6. If yes what is the longest period of time you have not ridden for?
Less than one year
( )
1 to 2 years
( )
54
2 to 3 years
( )
More than 3 years
( )
SECTION C: TRAINING
7. Have you received training on motor cycles riding ?
Yes
(
)
No (
)
8. Which of the following have you undertaken? (Please tick all that apply)
Old-style motorcycle test (pre-CBT)
( )
CBT (compulsory basic training)
( )
Motorcycle test on a motorcycle between 75cc and 120cc
( )
Motorcycle test on a motorcycle over 120cc but not more than 125cc
( )
Direct access test (on a machine of at least 46bhp, approximately 500cc)
( )
Advanced rider training
( )
Other
( )
………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
9. Are you now legally entitled to ride a motorcycle of any size/power?
Yes
( )
No
( )
SECTION D: SAFETY AND TRAFFIC RULES
10. Where did you do your training of motorcycle driving? Please tick
appropriately
At a driving school
( )
In an informal way
( )
55
11. How long did the training take? Please tick appropriately
Less than a week
( )
A few weeks
( )
A month
( )
Two months
( )
Over two months
( )
12. Do you have a valid driving license? Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
13. Were you tested by the traffic police department in order to get the license?
Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
14. Have you had any accident/s with the motorcycle? Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
15. What do you think are the main causes of motorcycle accidents? (Please list a
maximum of three causes in the space below)
………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
16. Please read the following list of safety measures for motorcyclists and tick
three you think are the most important. (Please remember to only tick three
boxes)
Properly maintaining your motorcycle
( )
Making yourself visible to other road users
( )
Observing the speed limit
( )
Not riding while under the influence of drink or drugs
( )
Using the correct observation techniques (e.g. lifesaver)
( )
Correctly positioning your motorcycle according to road conditions
( )
56
Not riding while tired
( )
Wearing protective clothing/helmets/boots
( )
17. Which category of road user do you think is most likely to cause a
motorcyclist to have an accident? (Please tick one box only)
The motorcyclists themselves
( )
Cyclists
( )
Car drivers
( )
Pedestrians
( )
Large commercial vehicle drivers
( )
Don’t know
( )
Other Please specify)
( )
18. The following questions ask about your riding habits. Please answer
truthfully. It is impossible for your answers to be traced back to you. (Please
When
you
are
riding
your
motorcycle how often do you:
Wear bright/reflective clothing
Use daytime headlights
Wear a protective jacket
Ride above the speed limit
Wear protective trousers
Ride while feeling tired
Ride while under the influence of
drink/drugs
57
Don’t know
Never
Occasionally
Frequently
Always
tick one box from each row)
Don’t know
Never
Occasionally
Frequently
Always
Remember to use your ‘lifesaver’
Misjudge
the
speed
needed
to
negotiate a bend in the road
Overload
Carry
passengers
who
have
no
protective gear
Use your cell phone
When overtaking other vehicles how
often:
Are the vehicles travelling at or above
the speed limit
Do you pass two or more vehicles at
the same time
Do you use your indicator
19. Does the helmet you most frequently wear comply with Kenyan Safety
Standards? (Please tick one box only)
Yes
( )
No
( )
do not know ( )
20. Have you ever been involved in a motorcycle accident that has resulted in an
injury to yourself or your pillion passenger(s)?
Yes
( )
No
( )
21. Do you have any friends or associates who have been in a motorcycle
accident that has resulted in an injury to them?
Yes
( )
No
( )
How often are motorcycle accidents that happen off the main roads reported to the
traffic police? ALL…. OFTEN………….. RARELY…….. NEVER……
58
SECTION E: ECONOMIC EFFECTS
22. What was your occupation before venturing into this activity of being a
motorcyclist taxi?
None
( )
Civil servant
( )
Casual laborer
( )
Tout
( )
Loader
( )
Others (specify)
( )
23. How much was your monthly salary/wage? Please tick where relevant.
(figures are in Ksh.)
500 -999
( )
1000 – 4999
( )
5000 – 6999
( )
7000 – 8999
( )
9000 – 10,000
( )
Above 10,000
( )
24. a) How much do you earn per month from this business on average? please
tick where relevant . (figures are in Ksh.)
Below 5000
( )
5000 – 6999
( )
7000 – 8999
( )
9000 – 9999
( )
10000 -14999
( )
150000 -19999
( )
20000 – 25000
( )
Above 25000
( )
b) Do you belong to any merry go round/savings scheme?
Yes
( )
No
( )
c) If yes how much do you contribute per month?
Please tick where relevant
(figures are in Ksh.)
100 -200
(
)
200 – 300
( )
300 – 500
( )
500 -1000
(
Above 1000
( )
)
d) What are the benefits of the contributions? Please tick where relevant
•
Given as loans to members
•
Low affordable interest rates
59
•
Makes members have financial discipline
e) Do you have a bank account as a group?
Yes
( )
No
( )
25. Has the motorcycle trade bettered your livelihood? Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
SECTION F: MEDICAL
26. How often do you go for medical checkups per year that is not brought by
any ill health? Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
27. Is there any health condition that you have suffered from arising from the
continuous use of the motorcycle? Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
28. Kindly specify the health condition .Please tick appropriately
Chest infections
( )
Running nose
( )
Frequent headaches
( )
Teary eyes
( )
Painful eyes
( )
Backache
( )
Persistent headache
A combination of some of the above conditions
( )
29. Have you gone for medical attention on the condition/s above? Please tick
appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
60
30. If yes specify the type of health facility. Please tick appropriately
Government
( )
Private
( )
31. If no, what medical care have you had? Please tick appropriately
Over the counter buying of drugs
( )
Use of herbal medicine
( )
None
( )
61
Appendixes B: Traffic Police Questionnaire
SECTION A: PERSONAL DETAILS
1. Please indicate the age group you belong?
20 to 24
( )
25 to 29
( )
30 to 34
( )
35 to 39
( )
40 to 44
( )
45 o 49
( )
50 and above
( )
SECTION B: MAIN ISSUES
2. On average how long do cyclists hold their motorcycle licenses?
3.
Less than one year
( )
1 to 2 years
( )
2 to 3 years
( )
More than 3 years
( )
Do they start riding a motorcycle immediately after acquiring a motorcycle
license?
Yes
( )
No
( )
If no how long is the gap between acquiring a license and riding a motorcycle?
Less than one year
( )
1 to 2 years
( )
2 to 3 years
( )
More than 3 years
( )
4. Where do majority of cyclists receive their training of motorcycle driving? Please
tick appropriately
At a driving school
( )
informally ( )
5. Is the traffic police department involved in testing cyclists before giving license to
them? Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
6. What do you think are the main causes of motorcycle accidents? (Please list a
maximum of three causes in the space below)
………………………………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………………………
………………………………………………………………………………………
62
7. Does the motorcyclist comply with the laid traffic rule in the country? (Please tick
one box only)
Yes
( )
No
( )
How often do you stop motorcycles for
inspection
How often do you set road blocks away
from the main tarmacked roads to track
behavior of motorcyclists
How often are road accidents involving
motorcyclists that occur away from the
main roads reported
Thank you for your responses
63
not at all
rarely
often
Very often
8. How often do you carry out the following
Appendixes C: Medics Questionnaire
PERSONAL DETAILS
1. Please indicate the age group you belong?
20 to 24
( )
35 to 39
( )
25 to 29
( )
40 to 44
( )
30 to 34
( )
45 to 49
50 and above
( )
( )
MEDICAL
2. How often do motorcyclists come for a medical checkup per year that is not
brought by being motorcyclist? Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
3. Is there any condition that motorcyclists have suffered from arising from the
continuous use of the motorcycle? Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
4. Kindly specify which is the most health condition suffered by motorcyclists
.Please tick appropriately
Chest infections
( )
Running nose
( )
Eye infections
( )
Backache
( )
5. Are there frequent cases of causalities resulting from motorcycle accidents?
Please tick appropriately
Yes
( )
No
( )
6. Which is the main orthopedic condition that you attend to in the wards arising
from motorcycle conditions?
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………………………
…………………………………………………………………
Thank you for your responses
64
Appendixes D :Time Frame
ACTIVITY
Submission of
DEADLINE
titles of project to faculty and 30th April 2011
selection of supervisors
Get to know your supervisor
30th April 2011
Discuss research topic with the supervisor
15th May 2011
Develop proposal and submit to supervisor for 10th July 2011
approval (Chapter 1 to 3)
Submit 6 copies to the research office
12th July 2011
Defend proposal
13th July 2011
Undertake collection of primary data
30th August 2011
Undertake secondary data collection
30th August 2011
Data analysis
15th September 2011
Submit Final Project
4th November 2011
Thesis forwarded to External Examiners
7th November 2011
Thesis Received from External Examiners
Students Defend Thesis at the School of Post
Graduate Board
12th November 2011
Student undertakes correction
16th November 2011
16th - 18th November
2011
Student submits final project
18th November 2011
Call for special Deans
21st November 2011
65
Appendixes E: Budget
No
ITEM
COST (Kshs)
1.
Proposal development
a)
Printing of 38 pages @ Kshs. 30
1,140
b)
Reproduction of 6 copies @ Kshs. 80
480
c)
Binding 6 copies @ Kshs. 50
300
d)
Travelling expenses
4,000
e)
Miscellaneous expenses
3,000
2.
Data collection & analysis
a)
Data collection
10,000
b)
Books and reading material
7,000
c)
Data analysis and computer run time
10,000
d)
Printing 80 pages @ Kshs 30
2,400
e)
Reproduction 6 copies @ Kshs. 400
2,400
f)
Binding 6 copies @ kshs. 1000
6,000
Transport
6,000
3.
Final thesis
a)
Transport
3,000
b)
Binding 4 copies @ 1,000
4,000
GRAND TOTAL
59,720
66