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Psychiat. 43 (2012) 855e861 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Journal of Behavior Therapy and Experimental Psychiatry journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jbtep Dissolving the tenacity of obsessional doubt: Implications for treatment outcome Frederick Aardema a, b, *, Kieron O’Connor a a b University of Montreal, Fernand-Seguin Research Center, 7331 Hochelaga, Montreal, Québec H1N 3V2, Canada Concordia University, Montreal, Canada a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Received 2 August 2011 Received in revised form 1 December 2011 Accepted 12 December 2011 Background and objectives: Previous research has found that a high impact of possibility based information during reasoning prevents the resolution of doubt among those with Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD). It was expected that the ability of those with OCD to resolve obsessional doubt would improve following Inference Based Treatment (IBT). Methods: The ability to resolve doubt, including the relative impact of reality and possibility based information, was measured before and after treatment with the Inference Processes Task in a group of 35 participants diagnosed with OCD. Results: Results confirmed that IBT improved the participants’ ability to resolve obsessional doubt. Those who improved their ability to resolve doubt showed a significantly better treatment outcome. Improvements appeared mostly due to a lowered impact of possibility based information following treatment. Limitations: The study did not include a control condition although results clearly indicate that the ability to resolve obsessional is closely linked to the most relevant quantifiers of treatment outcome. In addition, relatively small sample sizes prevented more powerful multiple comparisons between groups. Conclusions: Results suggest treatment implications and the relevance of dissolving the tenacity of obsessional doubt in OCD. Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Obsessive-compulsive disorder Doubt Possibility Imagination Inference based therapy Treatment outcome 1. Introduction Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a disorder characterized by frequent obsessions and compulsions with a debilitating effect on overall functioning and well-being. Current cognitive approaches propose that obsessions find their origin in unwanted intrusive thoughts, which if appraised negatively, lead the person to try to “neutralize” with compulsive behaviours (Rachman, 1997; Salkovskis, 1985). However, it has also been suggested that intrusive thoughts, or obsessions, often take the form of a doubt, focussing on a possible state of affairs in reality (e.g. “I might have left the stove on”, “I might be contaminated”, “I might be dangerous”) (O’Connor, 2002). These doubts often occur out of any related context and do not necessarily require any subsequent appraisal in order to increase anxiety and motivate compulsive behaviours (Grenier, O’Connor, & Bélanger, 2008; Julien, O’Connor, & Aardema, 2009). * Corresponding author. University of Montreal, Fernand-Seguin Research Center, 7331 Hochelaga, Montréal, Québec H1N 3V2, Canada. Tel.: þ1 514 251 4015; fax: þ1 514 251 2617. E-mail address: [email protected] (F. Aardema). 0005-7916/$ e see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jbtep.2011.12.006 In the last decade, experimental research on OCD has supported the role of doubt in OCD, mostly with regards to self-defeating maintaining behaviours that increase memory distrust and lower confidence (Ashbaugh & Radomsky, 2007; Dar, Rish, Hermesh, Fux, & Taub, 2000; van den Hout & Kindt, 2003, 2004). A more general lack of cognitive confidence or conviction has been implicated as well, including a distrust of perception and attention, making doubts and compulsive behaviours more likely (Hermans et al., 2008; Lazarov, Dar, Oded, & Liberman, 2010). Other studies have suggested that it may not be a general lack of confidence, but instead that underconfidence is restricted to specific OCD related domains (Moritz, Rietschel, Jelinek, & Bäuml, 2011; Moritz et al., 2007). One cognitive theory, termed an inference based approach (IBA), has offered an account of obsessions that considers doubt not only to be a discrete OCD-related process, but also the principal characteristic of OCD (O’Connor, Aardema, & Pélissier, 2005). In this model, obsessions are considered virtually synonymous with doubts that take the form of an inference about a possible state of affairs in reality that is preceded by a subjective narrative characterized by a distrust of the senses and an overreliance on the imagination. These two inferential components consisting of dismissing reality and favouring hypothetical possibilities together constitute an “inferential confusion” where the person with OCD Author's personal copy 856 F. Aardema, K. O’Connor / J. Behav. Ther. & Exp. Psychiat. 43 (2012) 855e861 gives credibility to a specific doubt despite lack of evidence in reality. Take the following narrative of a patient with OCD (From O’Connor & Aardema, 2011): “I have to check my stove each time I leave my apartment because I know I am an absent-minded person and that I can forget things. It even happened once that I forgot a pot on my stove; it could have set fire to my apartment. Also, I heard that a fireman forgot a pot on a stove right at the fire station and it set fire to the station. It is reasonable to think that if a fireman forgets pots on stoves, it could happen to anybody and especially to those like me who tend to be absent-minded.” The hallmark of such obsessional narratives is the weight accorded to ‘maybes’ - that is, to hypothetical possibilities. The narratives convincingly replace confidence in the senses (and the self) with a doubting inference based on remote possibilities, which lead the person astray from a common sense approach. Moving the person away from these subjective narratives, including the reliance on remote possibility, are important targets for an Inference Based Therapy (IBT; see O’Connor & Aardema, 2011; O’Connor, Koszegi, Aardema, Van Niekerk, & Taillon, 2009). A recent treatment trial has shown IBT to be a viable alternative to more established treatments like cognitive appraisal therapy or exposure in vivo with response prevention (O’Connor, Aardema, Bouthillier et al., 2005). Indeed, empirical research on mechanisms of change during IBT has shown that improvements during therapy coincide with changes in inferential confusion as measured by the Inferential Confusion Questionnaire (Aardema, Emmelkamp, & O’Connor, 2005; Aardema, O’Connor, Emmelkamp, Marchand, & Todorov, 2005; Aardema, Wu, Careau, O’Connor, & Dennie, 2010). Also, experimental research utilizing the Inference Processes Task (IPT) has shown that levels of doubt are a direct function of the impact of possibility based information during reasoning which in turn relates to levels of inferential confusion (Aardema, O’Connor, Pélissier, & Lavoie, 2009). During the IPT participants are alternately presented with possibility and reality based information in relation to an obsessional doubt as induced by a hypothetical scenario. Those with OCD are similarly affected by reality based information as compared to non-clinical controls, but significantly more influenced by possibility based information, leading to higher levels of doubt (Aardema et al., 2009). Moreover, in the IPT, those with OCD typically do not reach any resolution and arrive at higher end-point levels of doubt than non-clinical controls, showing a higher impact of possibility during their reasoning leading the person to perseverate and persist in obsessional doubts even though they are completely unrelated to reality. Improving the client’s ability to find resolution to obsessional doubt is one of the main goals of IBT. Yet, little is known on whether a person’s ability to resolve doubt by targeting the inferential confusion process is affected by cognitive therapy, or whether indeed it is even relevant to treatment outcome. IBT leads to clinical improvement, and psychometric studies support the mechanism of change to be inferential confusion. Yet, so far, this process has not yet been measured in an experimental task such as the IPT before and after treatment. Differentiating between a relatively heterogeneous group of people with OCD in terms of their varying abilities in resolving doubt would constitute a powerful test of the link between doubt resolution and inferential confusion. In other words, rather than looking at changes in a heterogeneous group, a stronger test controlling for random variation might be to compare clinical outcome in groups defined according to resolution ability. Indeed, previous research with the IPT has shown that a proportion of people with OCD is able to resolve doubt even before treatment has commenced (Aardema et al., 2009). The majority, however, appears less able, and shows higher end point levels of doubt as compared to non-clinical controls. The current study attempts to answer the question as to whether improvement in the ability to resolve obsessional doubt during reasoning as measured by the IPT is linked to treatment outcome. Specifically, it is expected that 1) Following IBT the person’s ability to resolve obsessional doubt will improve; 2) Change in the ability to resolve doubt is associated with treatment outcome; and 3) Improvements in the person’s ability to resolve doubt is associated with a lessened impact of possibility based information during reasoning. 2. Method 2.1. Recruitment and participants Thirty-five participants (age 18e65) meeting DSM-IV-TR diagnostic criteria for OCD (APA, 2000) participated in the present study as part of a treatment outcome study on IBT conducted at the OCD Spectrum Study Centre located at the Fernand Seguin Research Center in Montreal, Canada. All participants that completed the IPT, the main experimental task of the present study, before and after treatment, were included in the study. Before administration of the IPT, participants were recruited and assessed by a two-stage process using telephone screening interviews followed by initial questionnaires returned by mail and a face-to-face diagnostic interview. The face-to-face diagnostic interview used three structured interviews to provide adequate description of clinical features by a trained evaluator independent of the study. First, all participants were administered the Structured clinical interview for DSM-IV-TR (SCID-I) (First et al., 2002) - a structured interview that diagnoses axis I disorders that provides excellent coverage of the more common exclusionary conditions such as primary mood disorders, substance and alcohol dependence and abuse, somatoform disorders, and screens for psychotic features. Second, participants were administered the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS; Goodman, Price, Rasmussen, Mazure, Delgado et al., 1989; Goodman, Price, Rasmussen, Mazure, Fleischmann et al., 1989). Third, personality disorders were assessed with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis II Personality Disorders (SCIDII) (First, Gibbon, Spitzer, Williams, & Benjamin, 1997). Entry criteria were: (a) a primary diagnosis, according to DSM-IV-TR criteria, of OCD (b) no other principal axes 1 disorders, (c) no change in medication type or dose during the 12 weeks before treatment for antidepressants (4 weeks for anxiolytics), (d) willingness to keep medication stable while participating in the study, (e) no evidence of suicidal intent, (f) no evidence of current substance abuse, (g) no evidence of current or past schizophrenia, bipolar disorder or organic mental disorder (h) no other concomitant psychological treatment while participating in the study. The final sample consisted of 16 males and 19 females. The average age was 41.3 years (SD ¼ 11.57; range 23e65). Educational levels were distributed as follows: 14.3% high school, 22.9% College (i.e. Cégep in Québec), 11.4% Bachelor’s degree, 17.1% Master’s degree or higher. 2.2. Inference based treatment Following diagnosis, all eligible participants were offered a 24week course of IBT in accordance with published guidelines (O’Connor & Aardema, 2011; O’Connor et al., 2009). Unlike most other cognitive behavioural therapies, IBT is entirely cognitive in nature, and does not include exposure and response prevention. The first four sessions were evaluation sessions of the client by the Author's personal copy F. Aardema, K. O’Connor / J. Behav. Ther. & Exp. Psychiat. 43 (2012) 855e861 therapist in order to tailor IBT to the specific needs of the client. The remaining 20 sessions consisted of IBT formulated and delivered in a 10-step format utilizing worksheets and exercise sheets. During treatment, all participants were seen by one of three therapists assigned to the client. Sessions lasted for the duration of 1 h on a weekly basis. Clients received therapy from the same therapist throughout treatment. All therapists were licenced clinical psychologists with previous training and experience in IBT. In addition, therapists received weekly supervision from the principal investigators. Participants were evaluated by an independent trained assessor after 14 sessions, to evaluate whether there were any contraindications to continuing treatment (worsening of condition, new condition, motivation problem, inability to progress in current treatment). If there were contra-indications, the participant was withdrawn from the research program and referred to more appropriate standard management. At the end of treatment, after 24 sessions, clients were referred to other resources for further treatment and follow-up if necessary. 2.3. Measures The Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS; Goodman, Price, Rasmussen, Mazure, Delgado et al., 1989; Goodman, Price, Rasmussen, Mazure, Fleischmann et al., 1989). The Y-BOCS is the instrument of choice for clinician assessment of OC symptoms and severity and served as principal treatment outcome measure. The Y-BOCS consists of three parts: a symptom checklist, a description of target symptoms for each individual, and a structured rating of obsessions and compulsions plus insight and reliability ratings. Studies confirm the validity and reliability of the principal scales (Steketee, 1994; Taylor, 1995). For the current study, the Y-BOCS was administered by an independent assessor at pre-, mid-, posttreatment. The time delay between then initial Y-BOCS evaluation and the start of sessions with the therapist was on average three weeks. Post-treatment assessment also occurred on average within one week following the last session. The Padua Inventory (PI; Sanavio, 1988) is a self-report measure that consists of 60 items that measures both classic compulsive checking and cleaning behaviour as well as various types of obsessions. Items are rated on a 5-point scale (0 ¼ not at all to 4 ¼ very much). Studies with the PI have reported good reliability for the total scale as well as convergent and discriminant validity with high correlations with other measures of OCD and moderate correlations with anxiety and depression (Sanavio, 1988; Sternberger & Burns, 1990). The PI, like any of the other measures, was administered before and after treatment. Pre-treatment, they were completed by the clients during the four session evaluation phase before IBT treatment commenced. Post-treatment, they were completed within two weeks after the last session with the therapist. The Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) The BDI-II (Beck, Steer & Brown, 1996) is a 21-item measure designed to assess the severity of depressive symptoms experienced by respondents during the two weeks previous to completion. It is a frequently used and highly reliable and valid measure of symptoms of Depression (Beck et al., 1996). The Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI; Beck, Epstein, Brown, & Steer, 1988) is a 21-item (0e3 scale) anxiety intensity symptom measure experienced in the last week. The instrument shows high internal consistency (a ¼ 0.91), good test-retest reliability (r ¼ 0.75), moderate convergent validity with the revised Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (r ¼ 0.51) and discriminant validity with the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (r ¼ 0.25) (Beck et al., 1988). The Inferential Confusion Questionnaire (ICQ; Aardema, O’Connor et al., 2005) is a 15-item questionnaire measuring an overreliance 857 on imagination, a distrust of the senses, and a tendency to confuse imagination with reality during reasoning. Items are rated on a 5point scale (1 ¼ strongly disagree to 5 ¼ strongly agree). The ICQ is a unidimensional measure that has been found to explain a large portion of the variance in symptoms of OCD even when controlling for negative mood states and other cognitive domains (Aardema, Radomsky, O’Connor, & Julien, 2008; Wu, Aardema, & O’Connor, 2009). As well, inferential confusion as measured by the ICQ is related to treatment outcome independent of change in negative mood states (Aardema, Emmelkamp et al., 2005). The scale possesses good inter-item reliability (a ¼ 0.85). The Inference Processes Task (IPT; Aardema et al., 2009) represents an ecologically valid analogue of OCD, which measures doubting as an ongoing, dynamic process, rather than by one static measurement. The IPT has previously been validated in a nonclinical and clinical sample and shown to have convergent validity with degree of obsessionality and measures of imaginative involvement during reasoning (Aardema et al., 2009). At the beginning of the task, the participant is presented with a written scenario leading up to an inference of doubt that an accident might have happened and that someone was hurt. Following the reading of this scenario, the participant is asked to rate the probability that an accident may have occurred on a scale from 10 to 100 (i.e. “What do you consider to be the probability that an accident has happened under these circumstances using the following scale?”). Higher scores indicate a greater level of belief in the probability that an accident might have occurred. These initial scores are the baseline preceding subsequent manipulations of level of doubt by introducing separate pairs of reality and possibility-based information. Specifically, after rating the probability concerning the occurrence of an accident, the person is presented with a separate piece of reality-based information congruent with the idea that no accident had happened (R1). Next, the participant is asked to turn the page and is presented with a piece of possibility-based information (P1) that could potentially negate the previous piece of reality based information. And once again, the person is asked to rate the probability of an accident having occurred. This process is repeated and the participant is presented with two additional pairs of reality and possibility-based information (R2, P2, R3, P3). The IPT produces a number of different variables related to doubt formation and resolution during reasoning (see Aardema et al., 2009). First, it produces a baseline level of doubt as the result of reading the initial scenario. Second, it produces levels of doubt at six different time points following baseline measurement in the course of reasoning. Third, the task produces and separates the impact of reality and possibility through calculating the cumulative impact of reality and possibility on levels of doubt at the appropriate time-points. And the final task measure is an end-point level of doubt reflecting the extent the person is able to find resolution to the doubt provoked by the scenario. A typical pattern of reasoning as derived from the present data at pre-treatment is represented in Fig. 1. 3. Results 3.1. Treatment effects on level of doubt and outcome measures Treatment effects on the clinical outcome measures are represented in Table 1. Paired t-tests showed significant reductions in OC symptoms as measured by the Y-BOCS and the PI. Effect sizes (Cohen’s d) indicates an effectiveness similar to that found in an earlier treatment outcome study using IBT (O’Connor, Aardema, Bouthillier et al., 2005; O’Connor, Aardema, & Pélissier, 2005), as well as effect sizes found in other cognitive-behavioural treatments Author's personal copy F. Aardema, K. O’Connor / J. Behav. Ther. & Exp. Psychiat. 43 (2012) 855e861 Accident 858 80 70 60 No Accident 50 40 30 20 B R1 P1 R2 P2 R3 P3 Fig. 1. Impact of reality (R1eR3) and negating possibility based information (P1eP3) on level of doubt at pre-treatment (n ¼ 35). for OCD (Abramowitz, 1998). In addition, levels of anxiety and depression (BAI and BDI) improved significantly in the course of treatment. There was also a significant reduction in level of inferential confusion as measured by the ICQ. Pre- and post-treatment levels of doubt at the different time points of the IPT are shown in Table 2. Paired t-tests showed a significant reduction in levels of doubt at most of the different time-points of the IPT after treatment. In addition, we calculated the average impact of reality and possibility based information on levels of doubt were found utilizing the same formulae as described elsewhere (see Aardema et al., 2009): Average Impact of Possibility Based Information ¼ ½ðP1 R1Þ þ ðP2 R2Þ þ ðP3 R3Þ=3 Average Impact of Reality Based Information ¼ 1*½ðR1 BÞ þ ðR2 P1Þ þ ðR3 P2Þ=3 Paired t-tests revealed significant reductions in the average impact of reality and near significant reductions in possibility based information on levels of doubt after treatment. This reduction was expected in the impact of possibility based information. However, a significant reduction was also observed in the impact of reality based information, which was unexpected. 3.2. Treatment effects on the resolution of obsessional doubt The primary objective of the current study was to establish whether participants with OCD improved in their ability to resolve obsessional doubt as defined by end-points levels of doubt. For the current study, resolution was defined as a score of 20 or lower on levels of doubt at the end-point of the IPT. This cut-off point represents the lower range of scores on levels of doubt within one standard deviation of mean scores reached by non-clinical participants at end-point (Aardema et al. M ¼ 32.37; SD 16.60; range ¼ 10e100). Results on the ability of participants to find resolution to doubt before and after treatment are represented in Table 3. The McNemar’s test, a nonparametric method for nominal data to determine whether row and column marginal frequencies are equal, indicated a highly significant difference in participants’ ability to resolve doubt as the result of treatment (p < 0.001). Specifically, a substantially higher number of participants were able to resolve doubt post-treatment (n ¼ 22) as compared to the number of participants able to resolve doubt pre-treatment (n ¼ 8). Yet, there remained a portion of participants who were not able to resolve the doubt following treatment (n ¼ 13). Most of these participants were also not able to resolve doubt pre-treatment (n ¼ 12). Interestingly, perhaps the result of random error or report bias, one person was able to resolve doubt before treatment, but unable to do so following therapy. On the basis of these results, we can identify the following subgroups in our current sample for further analysis (n ¼ 34): 1) Resolution Group (n ¼ 15; 44.1%) -no resolution pre-treatment/ resolution post-treatment. 2) No Resolution Group (n ¼ 12; 35.3%) - no resolution pretreatment/no resolution post-treatment. 3) Pre-Resolution Group (n ¼ 7; 20.6%) - resolution pre-treatment/ resolution post-treatment. 3.3. The resolution of obsessional doubt and treatment outcome The second aim of the present study was to establish whether change in a person’s ability to resolve doubt is relevant to treatment outcome. To investigate whether the effects of change in participants’ ability to resolve doubt was related to treatment outcome, repeated measures ANOVAs were carried out with the outcome measures as dependent variables and the previously identified resolution subgroups as independent variables. Additional repeated ANOVAs were run with change in baseline levels of doubt added as a covariate. Means and standard deviations on measures before and after treatment are represented in Table 4. Baseline Differences in level of Doubt d Repeated ANOVA showed an overall significant effect on baseline levels of doubt as measured by the IPT (F (1, 31) ¼ 25.66; p < 0.001). However, none of the groups improved more than the others on baseline levels of doubt in the course of treatment (F (2, 31) ¼ 1.26; p ¼ 0.30). Nonetheless, since changes in baseline levels of doubt may still attenuate results, it was added as a covariate in supplementary analysis for each of the different outcome variables. Y-BOCS Total Score d Repeated ANOVA showed a significant treatment effect with all groups improving in symptoms as Table 1 Treatment effects on the clinical outcome measures (n ¼ 35). Pre-treatment Y-BOCS Obsessions Compulsions PI BAI BDI ICQ Post-treatment Mean SD Mean SD 27.40 12.66 14.74 84.32 13.46 16.97 45.20 5.07 3.04 2.80 40.91 10.00 10.20 14.64 13.49 6.69 6.80 47.80 8.37 9.14 35.80 7.63 4.05 3.74 26.55 7.32 9.52 15.21 t df p Cohen’s d 12.35 10.16 12.46 6.85 4.56 7.33 4.46 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 2.15 1.67 2.40 1.06 0.58 0.79 0.63 Author's personal copy F. Aardema, K. O’Connor / J. Behav. Ther. & Exp. Psychiat. 43 (2012) 855e861 859 Table 2 Treatment effects on levels of doubt and the average impact of possibility and reality during reasoning with the IPT (n ¼ 35). Pre-treatment Baseline R1 P1 R2 P2 R3 P3 Cumulative average impact of possibility Cumulative average impact of reality Post-treatment df p 26.89 17.68 25.31 31.24 24.64 18.17 19.90 10.79 4.13 4.06 2.94 1.56 2.62 2.63 4.58 2.00 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 <0.001 <0.001 <0.01 0.13 <0.05 <0.05 <0.001 0.054 12.97 2.04 34 0.049 SD Mean SD 66.29 45.14 55.42 37.71 47.43 29.14 44.29 11.71 23.77 23.81 25.36 22.63 26.05 18.21 23.05 14.76 50.57 28.57 40.57 30.57 34.00 21.43 27.43 7.43 19.05 14.96 15.14 measured by the Y-BOCS total score (F (1, 31) ¼ 136.69; p < 0.001). However, there was no significant treatment by group effect on the Y-BOCS total score (F (2, 31) ¼ 1.58; p ¼ 0.22). These results did not change when adding change in baseline levels of doubt as a covariate to the repeated ANOVA (F (2, 31) ¼ 1.53; p ¼ 0.23). Y-BOCS Obsessions d There was an overall significant decrease on the Y-BOCS obsessions subscale for all groups (F (1, 31) ¼ 98.47; p < 0.001). As well, there was a significant treatment by group effect with those in the Resolution Group improving more than any of the other groups (F (2, 31) ¼ 3.37; p < 0.05). This result remained significant when adding change in baseline levels of doubt as a covariate (F(2, 31) ¼ 3.25; p ¼ 0.05). Y-BOCS Compulsions d All groups decreased on the Y-BOCS compulsions subscale (F (1, 31) ¼ 135.13; p < 0.001), but without any interaction effects (F (2, 31) ¼ 0.58; p ¼ 0.56). Similar nonsignificant results were obtained for the interaction effect when adding change in baseline levels of doubt as a covariate (F (2, 31) ¼ 0.42; p ¼ 0.66). PI d There was a significant group effect with all the groups improving in symptoms over time as measured by the PI (F (1, 31) ¼ 38.53; p < 0.001). In addition, there was a significant treatment by group effect with those in the Resolution Group improving the most after treatment (F (2, 31) ¼ 3.34; p < 0.05). The interaction effect remained significant when adding change in baseline levels of doubt as a covariate (F [2, 31] ¼ 3.45; p < 0.05). ICQ d There was an overall significant decrease in scores on the ICQ following treatment (F (1, 31) ¼ 20.38; p < 0.001). As well, there was a significant treatment by group effect with those in the Resolution Group improving the most on inferential confusion (F (2, 31) ¼ 4.01; p < 0.05). This effect remained when adding change in baseline levels of doubt as a covariate (F (2, 31) ¼ 4.03; p < 0.05). BAI d All groups decreased on anxious mood (F (1, 31) ¼ 16.55; p < 0.001) without any significant treatment by group effect (F (2, 32) ¼ 0.58; p < 0.57). BDI d There was an overall treatment effect on depressive mood as well with all groups improving (F (1, 31) ¼ 45.08; p < 0.001). There was no significant interaction effect (F (2, 32) ¼ 0.39; p < 0.68). Table 3 Number of participants able to resolve doubt before and after treatment on the IPT (n ¼ 35). Post-treatment Doubt unresolved Post-treatment Doubt resolved Total t Mean Pre-treatment Pre-treatment Total Doubt unresolved Doubt resolved 12 1 13 15 27 7 8 22 35 3.4. The role of reality and possibility in treatment outcome The final aim of the study was to establish the separate contribution of reality and possibility in participants’ ability to resolve obsessional doubt following treatment. Differences between the subgroups before and after treatment were examined with repeated measures ANOVAs. Also, additional ANOVAs were run in order to control for change in baseline levels of doubt. Means and standard deviations are represented in Table 5. Impact of Possibility e There was an overall trend for the groups to lessen in the impact of possibility following treatment (F (1, 31) ¼ 3.22; p ¼ 0.08). In addition, there was a trend for the impact of possibility to lessen more among those in the Pre-Resolution Group and Resolution Group as compared to those in the No Resolution group (F (2, 31) ¼ 2.63; p ¼ 0.09). This effect did not appear due to changes in baseline levels of doubt, which if added as a covariate to the repeated ANOVA showed similar results (F (2, 31) ¼ 2.98; p ¼ 0.07). Impact of Reality e There was a significant overall effect of impact of reality for the groups as a whole (F (1, 31) ¼ 7.90; p < 0.01). Participants were actually less impacted by reality based information following treatment. In addition, there was a trend towards a group by treatment effect with those in Pre-Resolution Group and Table 4 The resolution of obsessional doubt and treatment outcome (n ¼ 34). Resolution group No resolution group Pre-resolution group Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD 25.13 25.60 79.17 67.50 13.79 17.12 55.71 28.57 28.78 25.13 4.61 6.19 27.21 16.17 5.01 7.62 28.86 13.29 6.36 9.84 2.01 3.23 11.83 7.83 3.41 4.00 13.43 7.00 4.20 5.66 3.08 3.07 15.50 8.33 2.31 3.84 15.43 6.29 2.37 4.27 33.28 22.50 83.83 58.25 45.75 22.50 49.29 25.71 26.47 19.84 6.71 14.20 46.17 43.67 15.93 12.80 31.29 20.14 10.74 6.59 4.90 4.85 18.00 12.33 14.70 9.94 6.71 3.86 4.27 2.91 9.81 9.40 20.00 10.75 11.88 11.74 14.00 6.71 8.64 5.96 Baseline level of doubt Pre-treatment 62.00 Post-treatment 44.67 Y-BOCS total score Pre-treatment 26.33 Post-treatment 11.00 Y-BOCS - obsessions Pre-treatment 12.73 Post-treatment 5.47 Y-BOCS - compulsions Pre-treatment 13.60 Post-treatment 5.53 PI Pre-treatment 102.63 Post-treatment 51.07 ICQ Pre-treatment 52.93 Post-treatment 38.20 BAI Pre-treatment 13.20 Post-treatment 7.20 BDI Pre-treatment 16.53 Post-treatment 9.40 Author's personal copy 860 F. Aardema, K. O’Connor / J. Behav. Ther. & Exp. Psychiat. 43 (2012) 855e861 Table 5 Reality and possibility in the resolution of obsessional doubt (n ¼ 34). Resolution SD group Impact of possibility Pre-treatment 13.78 Post-treatment 4.00 Impact of reality Pre-treatment 18.44 Post-treatment 13.56 SD No resolution group Pre-resolution SD group 14.36 13.77 7.15 15.56 14.36 13.36 3.81 0.96 11.93 1.63 14.52 21.11 11.51 21.39 15.84 17.62 14.53 6.19 17.29 7.56 the Resolution group showing the greatest reductions in the impact of reality (F (2, 31) ¼ 2.75; p < 0.08) . However, this trend turned non-significant when adding change in baseline levels of doubt as a covariate to the repeated ANOVA (F (2, 31) ¼ 1.62; p < 0.22). 4. Discussion The current study investigated the pervasive nature of doubt in OCD and its relationship to treatment outcome. Specifically, it was expected that the participants’ ability to resolve obsessional doubt would improve following IBT and that such improvements would significantly relate to successful treatment outcome. The current findings largely supported these hypotheses. IBT produced notable changes in participants’ ability to reach non-clinical levels of doubt. A significantly higher proportion of individuals were able to resolve doubt post-treatment as compared to pre-treatment (i.e. the Resolution Group). Even so, there remained a proportion of individuals who were not able to find resolution to the doubt provoked by the task even after treatment (i.e. the No Resolution Group). In addition, a small proportion of individuals was already able to resolve doubt before treatment, and continued to do so after treatment (i.e. the Pre-Resolution Group). Comparing the different groups at post-treatment, it was quite clear that improvement in the ability to resolve doubt was positively associated with treatment outcome. Specifically, lower levels of obsessionality and negative mood states and inferential confusion at post-treatment were most pronounced in the Resolution Group and the Pre-Resolution group. This pattern was absent, however, with respect to the clinician version of the Y-BOCS total score. Nonetheless, a significant difference was observed in the Y-BOCS obsession subscale, which is the primary target of IBT. Also, those who improved in their ability to resolve obsessional doubt showed the greatest reductions in inferential confusion - the reasoning process proposed to be responsible for the perserverative nature of obsessional doubt. Overall, in line with previous findings, IBT produced significant reductions in levels of obsessionality, inferential confusion and negative mood states. In addition, there were significant improvements in levels of doubt as measured by the IPT. Participants were also less influenced by possibility based information introduced at three different time-points in the task. Contrary to expectations, however, there also was a significant reduction in the impact of reality based information. According to an inference based approach, obsessions obtain their reality value from a high impact of possibility during reasoning, which is why obsessions are so difficult to dismiss for individuals with OCD. Reductions in the impact of possibility as the result of treatment would therefore be considered to be beneficial to those suffering from OCD. However, the current task also showed significant reductions in the impact of reality based information during treatment, which was unexpected. This appears to suggest that change in the impact of reality is relevant to improvements in the resolution of doubt. However, these results pertain to the group as a whole, which is quite heterogeneous in terms of their ability to resolve doubt, both before and after treatment. Looking at the groups separately, change in the impact of reality did not significantly differentiate between those who improved in their ability to resolve to doubt and those who did not. In contrast, a trend was observed where change in the impact of possibility did differentiate between different groups. One explanation for the lessened impact of reality following treatment might be that people with OCD simply become more confident as the result of treatment, less likely to be influenced by outside influences or information regardless of whether it is reality or possibility based. Another explanation might be that the lessened impact of reality following treatment was due to test-retest effects and familiarity with the task. The result is a lowered impact of both possibility and reality based information. This also highlights an important limitation of the current study, which is that there was no control for test-retest effects. It might be useful to add a natural waiting list control group to control for such effects in future studies. Other important limitations of the present study are relatively small sample sizes preventing more powerful multiple comparisons between groups as well as the inclusion of additional control variables such as change in anxiety and depression. Nonetheless, the current study did clearly show that the ability to resolve obsessional doubt is closely linked to the most relevant quantifiers of treatment outcome. These results held when controlling for baseline change in level of doubt. In addition, a trend was found where a reduction in the impact of possibility based information was most pronounced among those who improved in their ability to resolve doubt. A similar trend was observed in the impact of reality, but became non-significant when controlling for baseline levels of doubt. We can therefore conclude change in the impact of possibility is likely still the more important variable to consider in alleviating obsessional doubt. In conclusion, the current study showed that the ability to resolve obsessional doubt is an important process to consider in treatment, and may be successfully targeted with IBT in a significant proportion of participants. Clearly, however, the current study is only a first step in the experimental measurement of inferential confusion and its relationship to treatment outcome. Causal interpretations on the basis of current results would be premature. In particular, the current study would benefit from replication, controls for test-retest effect, and investigation in larger samples. 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