March 07, 2017
IPO - Note
Avenue Supermarts Ltd.
Recommendation: SUBSCRIBE
Retail
Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) is an emerging national supermarket chain, with a focus on value retailing. ASL opened its
first store in Mumbai in 2002. As of January 31, 2017, ASL had 118 stores with Retail Business Area of 3.59 million sq.ft,
located across 45 cities in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and
NCR.ASL operate distribution centres and packing centres which form the backbone of their supply chain to support retail
store network. As of January 31, 2017, ASL had 22 distribution centres and six packing centres in Maharashtra, Gujarat,
Telangana and Karnataka.
Investment Rationale
Value retailing to a well-defined target consumer base
ASLs business model is based offering value retailing using the
EDLC/EDLP strategy. TheEDLC/EDLP strategy is offering low prices
on daily basis with low procurement and operations cost.
ASLstargets at lower-middle, middle and aspiring upper-middle
incomeconsumers. ASL believes that getting value for money is
the most compelling factor in decision-making forthese income
groups. Majority of the products stocked by ASL are essential
products forming part of basic rather thandiscretionary spending,
hence business is not materially affected by seasonality or
temporarilydepressed macro-economic conditions.
Issue Snapshot
Issue Open:
Issue Close:
Price Band
Issue Size
Market Cap
8-Mar-17
10-Mar-17
INR 295 - 299
INR 18700 mn
INR 184104 - INR 186600 mn
Particulars
Fresh Issue
OFS Issue Size (No. of shares)
QIBs
Non-institutional
Retail
INR 62.54 mn
No Any
50% of Net Issue
15% of Net Issue
35% of Net Issue
Steady footprint expansion using a distinct store acquisition
strategy and ownership model
ASL's business has grown through expansion of store network
from 1 store in 2002 to 118 stores in January 2017 across 9 states
in India. ASL hasexpanded their footprint using a cluster-based
approach. They have strengthened theirexisting presence in certain
regions by opening new stores within a radius of existingstores
and distribution centres. Such clusters have led to increased
penetration, higher cost efficiency due to economies of scale and
greater and brand visibility.Owning real estate and entering into
long-term lease arrangements has helped ASL to control fixed costs
per store,other than the rental savings, which is partially offset
by higher capital and capital servicing costs.
Capital Structure
Pre Issue Equity
Post Issue Equity
Bid Lot
Minimum Bid Amount @295
Minimum Bid Amount @299
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters
Others
INR 5615.4 mn
INR 6240.8 mn
50
INR 14750
INR 14950
Pre Issue (%)
Post issue (%)
91.4
8.6
82.2
17.8
High operating efficiency and lean cost structures through stringent
inventory management using IT systems
ASL use IT systems for procurement, salesand inventory
management which enables them to identify and quickly react to
changes in customer preferences by adjustingproducts available,
brands carried, stock levels and pricing in each of stores.ASLs IT
systems are built with a wide range of data management tools
specific to business needs and support key aspectsof business on
a daily basis. ASLs IT systems run onERP applications and are
robust and scalable.With supply chain management systems and
internal controls to minimise product shortage, ASL is able to
operate efficiently and productively with minimaldisruptions to
day to day operations.
Particulars
Face value
FY16 PE *
FY17 PE (annualised)*
Book Value (30th Sep 2016)
INR 10.0
58.1
36.1
INR 30.5
* Upper band
Outlook & Valuation
Revenue of ASLhas grown at a CAGR of 40% during FY12-16
compared to growth of 30% for V-mart, 28% for Trent and 20% for
Future Consumer in the same period. PAT of ASLhas grown at a
CAGR of 52% during FY12-16 compared to growth of 27% for Vmart and 7% for Trent in the same period. Higher revenue and net
profit per square feet does give ASL an edge over its peers as the
absence of rental costs helps the company deliver higher operating
margins. RoNW for ASL stands at 23.4% in FY16 compared to 3.6%
for Trent and 12.7% for V-Mart. Considering supernatural growth
and significantly higher ROE, we believe ASL deserves premium
over its peers. Trent and V-Mart are currently trading at 50.9x and
37x their FY17E EPS. At upper band of INR 299, ASL is valued at
36.1x its annualized EPS of FY17. We recommend SUBSCRIBE to
the issue with long term perspective.
Objects of the issue
Fresh Issue
Repayment of Debt
INR 10800 mn
Construction & purchase of fit outs
for new stores
INR 3666 mn
General corporate purposes
Balance
Offer For Sale (OFS)
The company will not receive any proceeds from OFS.
Ravikant Sangepag
[email protected]
Ph. No. 91 22 4289 5600/ Ext. 217
1
Retail
certainregions by opening new stores within a radius of a few
kilometers of existing stores and distribution centres. This
hasensured the creation of a cluster of stores within a region in
which they have a better understanding oflocal needs and
preferences and enabled them to tailor offering. Such clusters
have led to increased penetration andpresence in under-served
markets, higher cost efficiency due to economies of scale achieved
supply chain andinventory management, and greater and
concentrated brand visibility due to focused implementation of
marketing andadvertising initiatives.While expanding network,
ASL has carefully chosen the location of stores within clusters of
stores and distributioncentres. In the process of opening new
stores, ASL take various factors into account, including population
density,customer traffic and vehicular traffic, customer
accessibility, potential growth of the local population and
economy, areadevelopment potential and future development
trends, estimated spending power of the population and local
economy andpayback period, estimated on the basis of expected
sales potential, strategic benefits, proximity and performance
ofcompetitors and store site characteristics. ASL posted consistent
growth in ROE despite owning the real estate underlying several
of stores. Owning real estate and entering into long-term lease
arrangements has helped ASL to control fixed costs per store.
Other than the rental savings, which is partially offset by higher
capital and capital servicing costs.This model of owning of stores
provides ASL with significant long-term competitiveadvantage.
Investment Rationale
Value retailing to a well-defined target consumer base
ASLs business model is based on the concept of offering value
retailing to customers using the EDLC/EDLP strategy. The EDLC/
EDLP strategy is based on offering low prices on an everyday basis
by achieving low procurement and operations cost rather than as
special promotion limited to certain products or to a particular
day, week or any other specific period in the year. ASLs customer
acquisition and retention strategy is targeted at lower-middle,
middle and aspiring upper-middle income consumers. The
company believe that getting value for money is the most
compelling factor in daily shopping decision-making for these
income groups. The majority of the products stocked by ASL are
essential products forming part of basic rather than discretionary
spending, due to which business is not materially affected by
seasonality or temporarily depressed macro-economic
conditions. ASL follow pricing strategy, relying on strong supplier
network, efficient supply chain management for procurement and
careful product assortment.
Product Categories
D-Mart
Foods
Non-Foods
Staples Groceries
Fruits & vegetables
Snacks &
processed foods
Dairy & frozen
product
Beverages &
confectionery
Home care
products
Personal care
Toileteries
Over the
counter
products
Revenue contribution of the Product
Particulars
Foods
Non-Foods
General Merchandise & Apparel
General
Merchandise
& Apparel
Geographical Presence
Bed & bath
prodcts
Home appliances
Furniture
Crockery
Utensils
Plastic goods
Garments &
foodwear
categories
FY14
FY15
53.3% 52.8%
21.5% 21.2%
25.2% 25.9%
FY16 9MFY17
53.1%
52.8%
20.6%
19.6%
26.4%
27.6%
Steady footprint expansion using a distinct store acquisition
strategy and ownership model
118 stores as of January 31, 2017 across nine states and one
union territory in India. ASL has expanded footprint using a clusterbased approach. ASL has strengthened existing presence in
2
Retail
New Stores Opened
80
High operating efficiency and lean cost structures through stringent
inventory management using IT systems
ASL use IT systems for procurement, salesand inventory management
which enables them to identify and quickly react to changes in
customer preferences by adjustingproducts available, brands
carried, stock levels and pricing in each of stores and effectively
monitor and manage theperformance of each of stores.ASLs IT
systems are built with a wide range of data management tools
specific to business needs and support key aspectsof business,
including procurement, sales and inventory control on a daily basis.
ASLs IT systems also support ASLs cashmanagement, in-store
systems, logistics systems, human resources and other
administrative functions. ASLs IT systems run onERP applications
and are robust and scalable.Together with supply chain
management systems and internal controls to minimise product
shortage and theoccurrence of out-of-stock situations and pilferage,
ASL is able to operate efficiently and productively with
minimaldisruptions to day to day operations.
60
Fixed Asset Turnover
25
20
15
10
5
0
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
FY 15
FY 16
9M FY17
Cumulative Number of Stores
140
120
100
40
4.5
20
4.0
0
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
FY 15
FY 16
3.5
9M FY17
Retail Business Area (mn Sq ft)
3.0
4.0
2.5
3.5
2.0
3.0
FY 12
2.5
FY 13
FY 14
FY 15
FY 16
FY 14
FY 15
FY 16
Inventory Turnover
2.0
16.0
15.5
15.0
14.5
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
FY 12
FY 13
FY 14
FY 15
FY 16
9M FY17
FY 12
3
FY 13
Retail
Organized Retail Consumption
Organized retail, primarily brick & mortar, has been in India for
more than two decades now, its contribution to total retail is still
low at 9% (USD55bn) as of 2016, a modest increase from around
7% in 2012.
Industry Overview
Overall Consumption
India is seen one of the key consumer markets globally. It is
estimated thatIndia's consumption expenditure will increase to
USD 2,000bn by 2020 and will surpass the consumption
expenditure ofdeveloped economies like Italy, France and United
Kingdom. By 2030, India is expected to rank among the top 5
economiesin terms of consumption.
Total Private Final Consumption Expenditure (US$ bn)
2012 2013 2014
Consumption Expenditure in India 760
877 1011
2015
1125
Projected growth in organized retail and contribution of food & grocery.
2012
2016 2020 E
Overall Retail Market (USD bn)
386
616
960
Total Organized Retail (USD bn)
27
55
115
Contribution of Food & Grocery (USD bn)
4
13
31
Contribution of Food & Grocery (%)
1.5
3
5
2020E
2000
In 2020, the F&G segment is projected to witness the current pace of
robust growth and reach a 5% share of organized retailpenetration.
Major general merchandiser retailers are still going through the
learning curve of challenges in the organizedbrick and mortar sector.
Due to increasing pressure on margin efficiency and profitability,
general merchandise retailers willincreasingly re-align category
offering, space rationalization and format consolidation over the
next few years. These factorsare expected to lead to higher
productivity and efficiency driving the increase of organized retail
penetration within F&Gsegment.
Retail Consumption
Retail consumption in India stood at USD 616 bn in 2016, the food
and groceries (F&G) segment constitutes a majority share of the
retail market (67%). According toTechnopak, F&G will continue to
be the largest contributor in the retail market even four years hence
with a projected shareof 66% in 2020. Apparel and accessories
and consumer electronics are the other two key categories which
account for 8% and6% of the total retail market, respectively.
Estimated size of Indian retail industry between CY16-2020
Retail Consumption in India
2012
2016
Total Retail (USD bn)
386
616
Food & Grocery (USD bn)
261
413
Food & Grocery (%)
67.5
67
Apparel & Accessories (%)
8.25
8
Footwear (%)
1.15
1.18
Jewellary& Watches (%)
7.3
7.6
Pharmacy & Wellness (%)
2.8
2.9
Consumer Electronics (%)
5.2
5.7
Home & Living (%)
4.15
4.3
Others (%)
3.6
3.3
Outlook & Valuation
2020 E
960
634
66
7.75
1.2
8.05
2.95
6.6
4.35
3.1
Revenue of ASLhas grown at a CAGR of 40% during FY12-16 compared
to growth of 30% for V-mart, 28% for Trent and 20% for Future
Consumer in the same period. PAT of ASLhas grown at a CAGR of 52%
during FY12-16 compared to growth of 27% for V-mart and 7% for
Trent in the same period. Higher revenue and net profit per square
feet does give ASL an edge over its peers as the absence of rental
costs helps the company deliver higher operating margins. RoNW
for ASL stands at 23.4% in FY16 compared to 3.6% for Trent and
12.7% for V-Mart. Considering supernatural growth and
significantly higher ROE, we believe ASL deserves premium over its
peers. Trent and V-Mart are currently trading at 50.9x and 37x their
FY17E EPS. At upper band of INR 299, ASL is valued at 36.1x its
annualized EPS of FY17. We recommend SUBSCRIBE to the issue
with long term perspective.
16 Indian states contribute approximately 85% of the total retail
spend and are expected to continue to have a significantshare of
the total retail consumption. Retail opportunity in three southern
states - Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telanganais currently
approximately USD100bn. According to Technopak, these three key
southern states will witness robust growthover the next four years
as well. The state of Maharashtra contributes the highest share of
around 19% among these leadingstates. The state is expected to
continue to reflect this steady growth. Gujarat is another state that
is expected to continue toreflect steady growth.Delhi & Mumbai
clusters contribute around 9% of India's total retail spending. The
top 22 cities account for 29% of totalretail, and the top 72 cities
account for almost 39%.
Risk
• Inability to maintain an optimal level of inventory in stores
may impact ASL's operations adversely.
• Inability to promptly identify and respond to changing
customer preferences or evolving trends may adversely affect
business.
• Majority (81.4%) of sales is driven from stores in Maharashtra
and Gujarat.Any adverse developmentsaffecting operations
in these two states could have an adverse impact on revenue
and results of operations.
4
Retail
Financials
Balance Sheet
Income Statement
Y/E (INR mn)
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Net Sales
33,409
Growth
51.27%
Cost of Goods Sold
57,149
Employee Cost
687
Other Operating Expenses
1,997
Total Operating Expenses
59,833
EBITDA (Excl OI)
2,150
Growth
56%
EBITDA Margin%
6.4%
Dep./Amort.
458
EBIT
1,692
Interest Expense
426
Other Income
143
PBT
1,409
Tax Expenses
472
Adjustments for PAT
2
APAT
939
MI and share of associate
Consolidated PAT
939
Growth
55%
46,865
40.28%
79,689
873
2,729
83,291
3,418
59%
7.3%
570
2,848
557
158
2,449
835
-1
1,614
64,394
37.40%
109,744
1,341
3,592
114,676
4,590
34%
7.1%
815
3,775
724
183
3,233
1,109
-7
2,117
0
2,117
31%
85,881
33.37%
146,155
1,486
4,683
152,324
6,635
45%
7.7%
984
5,651
908
180
4,922
1,716
4
3,210
22
3,188
51%
1,614
72%
Y/E (INR mn)
FY14
FY15
FY16
5,441
5,468
5,615
5,615
Reserves & Surplus
2,455
4,088
6,377
9,589
3
0
1
1
7,898
9,556 11,993
15,205
Minority Interest
Total Networth
Secured
Unsecured
Long Term Borrowing
3,712
4,568
7,138
Other Liabilities
335
390
467
562
Sources of Funds
11,945
14,515 19,598
24,852
Net Block
9,247
11,717 15,281
20,935
CWIP
1,181
Non Current Investments
888
9,085
981
817
159
152
146
275
Current Assets
3,807
4,893
6,337
7,899
Current Liabilities
2,975
3,562
3,950
6,150
Net Current Assets
832
1,332
2,386
1,749
Other Assets
526
426
804
1,077
14,515 19,598
24,852
Application of Funds
Key Ratios
Y/E
Per Share Data (INR)
Reported EPS
Adj. EPS
Growth (%)
CEPS
BVPS
Return Ratios (%)
RoACE
RoNW
Liquidity Ratios
Net Debt/Equity
Interest Coverage Ratio
Current Ratio
Efficiency Ratios
Asset Turnover Ratios
Inventory Days
Debtor Days
Creditor Days
Valuation Ratios
P/E (x)*
P/BV (x)*
P/CEPS (x)*
EV/Net Sales (x)*
EV/EBITDA (x)*
FY13
Share Capital
11,945
Cash Flow
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
1.67
1.67
55.4
2.49
14.1
2.87
2.87
71.9
3.89
17.0
3.77
3.77
31.2
5.22
21.4
5.68
5.68
50.6
7.43
27.1
18.1
12.8
24.7
18.5
26.0
19.6
Y/E (INR mn)
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
EBT
1,411
2,449
3,226
4,926
-
-
-
-
Less: Other Income/Exceptionals
Add:Depreciation
458
570
815
984
Add: Interest paid
426
557
724
908
Change in Working Capital
-653
-827
-1,520
-686
-4
-17
-25
-24
Others
28.9
23.4
Taxes Paid
Cash Flow from operations (a)
0.47
4.31
1.3
0.48
5.40
1.4
0.60
5.47
1.6
0.66
6.42
1.3
2.2
15.1
1.0
4.3
2.6
15.0
0.9
4.2
2.7
15.3
0.5
3.4
2.8
15.1
0.3
3.3
Cash Flow from Investing (b)
178.9
21.3
120.2
0.3
5.1
104.0
17.6
76.9
0.3
3.9
79.3
14.0
57.3
0.3
4.0
52.7
11.0
40.2
0.3
3.7
Cash Flow from Financing (c )
Change in Fixed Assets
Change in CWIP
Change in Investments
Change in Equity
Debt Raised/(Repaid)
Interest paid
* Upper band
5
367
750
1,000
1,637
1,271
1,981
2,220
4,471
-2,394
-2,717
-4,774
-6,481
-
-
-
-
86
15
35
-103
-2,309
-2,702
-4,739
-6,583
358
140
46
326
1,239
1,065
2,919
2,572
-422
-552
-621
-816
1,175
652
2,345
2,082
Net Change in Cash (a+b+c)
137
-68
-174
-30
Opening Cash
477
614
546
372
Closing Cash
614
546
372
342
Retail
Sharad Avasthi
Head - Equity Research
[email protected]
Tel.: +91-33-4011 4800
Ext.832
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SPA Securities Ltd
NSE Cash
NSE Future & Option
NSE Currency Derivatives
BSE Cash
BSE Currency Derivatives
MCX-SX Cash
MCX-SX Future & Option
MCX-SX Currency Derivatives
Mutual Fund
CDSL DP
NSDL DP
SEBI Research Analyst
SPA CAPITAL ADVISORS LIMITED
SEBI registered Category-1
Merchant Bankers
SEBI Regn. No. INM000010825
SPA COMTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED
SPA INSURANCE BROKING SERVICES LTD
Direct Broker for Life and General
Insurance Broking
IRDA Lic. Code No. DB053/03
6
SEBI Reg. Nos.
INB231178238
INF231173238
INE231178238
INB011178234
INE011178234
INB261178231
INF261178231
INE261178238
ARN 77388
IN-DP-CDSL-485-2008
IN-DP-NSDL-316-2009
INH100002615