ALFRED NZO DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
RESPONSE STRATEGY
TECHNICAL REPORT
Preface
Climate change is among the most pervasive threats to people and biodiversity today. Without action it will devastate human livelihoods, cause the extinction
of countless species, and destroy some of the world's most precious ecosystems. The first action that is urgently needed in response to this threat is a global
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Done quickly and at scale, this will limit the impacts of climate change to manageable levels. Regardless of mitigation
actions put in place today, however, a certain level of climate change is now inevitable. We will have to adapt in order to conserve our natural resources,
achieve continued economic growth, and ensure social equity and poverty alleviation in the face of adverse impacts of climate change. Protecting the most
vulnerable people and the environments they depend on from the adverse effects of climate change is a moral imperative in line with the Constitution and all
the other major legislation of South Africa.
Climate change will place additional stress on the Grassland, Savanna, and Coastal ecosystems already under pressure in the Alfred Nzo District Municipality.
Alfred Nzo District is largely a rural region with low levels of development. The communities that live here face significant socio-economic challenges and are
often directly dependent on the natural environment for their livelihoods. Changes in climate are likely to impact these communities as the predicted changes
in temperature over the medium (50 year) and long term (100 year) begin to impact biome distribution and stability, climate resilience, the cost of maintaining
infrastructure (both natural and man‐made), and the ability of communities to provide for themselves. Since our lifestyles are inextricably linked to the natural
world, defending the resilience of ecosystems and the services they provide is essential to withstanding future climatic changes.
While global climate change poses a serious challenge, opportunities to optimise our efforts and progress towards the realisation of sustainable development
lie in a growing need to find more sustainable production and consumption processes, reduce per capita emissions, and respond to climate change impacts
through mitigation and adaptation. This report builds on the recently completed Alfred Nzo District Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment to assess specific
climate change risks and present a District level climate change response strategy. Responses include project ideas per affected sector as well opportunities
for accessing resources, and resources for public awareness and education and monitoring and evaluation. Much of the climate change adaptation and
mitigation work included in the strategy relate directly to core municipal mandates . Planning and service delivery are central to integrated climate change
response. Climate threats are not in any way peripheral or additional to current tasks. Successful response will, however, require a different, more crosscutting and long term approach to the daily business of the municipality.
All are encouraged to make use this information freely for planning, implementation, and review.
Acknowledgements
The Alfred Nzo District Climate Change Response Strategy was a collective effort with significant contributions from many individuals and organisations. The
Alfred Nzo District Municipality, Conservation South Africa, SouthSouthNorth, and Dr Stephen Holness formed the core writing team. We would particularly
like to acknowledge the work of the Alfred Nzo Climate Change Committee, Dr Anthony Knowles, Petra de Abreu, and the members of the Umzimvubu
Catchment Partnership Programme. This report would have not been possible without the immense contribution and dedicated participation of these
committed individuals and institutions in climate change events held in the District.
Building on these successful partnerships between government and civil society, the ANDM aims to promote sustainable land management practices among
farmers and other land users, promoting healthy ecosystems at a landscape level that ensure biodiversity conservation and the sustained provision of
ecosystem services such as water flow, fertile soil, wildlife stocks, forage production, and flooding buffers, which are essential for coping with unpredictable
climatic conditions.
Citation
This report was compiled by
Basetsana Khathali and Fani Nyembezi, Alfred Nzo District Municipality
Dr Stephen Holness, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University
Amanda Bourne, Sarshen Scorgie, and Sinegugu Zukulu, Conservation South Africa
Zukisani Jakavula, Kristen Kennedy, Vuyiseka Majali, and Ronald Mukanya, SouthSouthNorth
Layout and design by Tessa Mildenhall, Conservation South Africa
Contact Fani Nyembezi at [email protected] for more information.
Please reference this document as follows:
CSA (Conservation South Africa). 2015. Alfred Nzo District Municipality Climate Change Response Strategy. Technical report.
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Executive Summary
The impacts of climate change are recognised globally and present a
significant challenge to economic development and human well-being.
Local managers and decision makers require a holistic approach when
responding to climate change. This includes the need understand the
vulnerability of rural communities in the Alfred Nzo District Municipality
(ANDM) in the context of the interactions that exist between social and
ecological systems, as well as how climate change response is intimately
linked to core municipal mandates.
This report is a full technical assessment on adaptation and mitigation
risks, opportunities, and response actions, supported by several annexes,
which includes the science and analysis underpinning the shorter ANDM
climate change strategy document.
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Few projected changes to rainfall present an opportunity for a
water-secure future in the ANDM through well planned and
sustainably maintained bulk water infrastructure.
Climate change is likely to also impact on the ecosystems that
underpin social and economic systems in the ANDM. Specific
biomes, e.g. the grasslands, are linked to distinct social-ecological
systems and are projected to be negatively impacted by climate
change in the future.
Structural disruption in the grasslands will have consequences for
agriculture, one of the central economic activities in the ANDM.
Sea level rise is not a major concern. Nonetheless, coastal
developments must be carefully planned as there are vulnerable
areas.
Based on regional dynamical downscaling of three Global Climate Models,
climate change projections for ANDM can be summarised as follows:
 Temperature projections are clear and include an increase of 1.7°C
over the medium term and 3.7°C over the long term on average.
 Slight variations in temperature projections are evident, with inland
areas projected to warm more than coastal areas.
 Total mean annual precipitation is unlikely to change much
 Variability of rainfall may increase, and along with it the incidence and
severity of extreme events.
Changes in temperature, rainfall, and patterns of extreme events are likely
to have direct impacts people living in the ANDM and on the ability of the
District and its local municipalities to deliver sustainable basic
infrastructure and services to all.
 Increasing temperatures will impact directly on human comfort,
health, and mortality, agricultural productivity, and energy and
water demand.
 Heavy rainfall events, could damage infrastructure, property, and
agricultural assets, lead to water quality concerns, and result in
flooding and soil erosion if poorly managed.
Figure a: Map showing projected biome stability in the ANDM in the longer term future.
The lighter areas indicate less stability and the darker areas indicate more stability. This
product shows that significant changes to the structure of the grassland habitats in the
interior of the ANDM can be expected.
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The analysis of climate risks in the ANDM identified several critical sectors
for climate responsive planning. The other element in climate change
response is mitigation – the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
through low carbon development and land use. The ANDM is characterised
by extreme energy poverty. Without energy, economic development will
remain out of reach. In order to achieve energy for all without locking the
ANDM in to dependence on coal-powered grid electricity and an ever
growing carbon footprint, energy poverty must be addressed with
renewable energy at a variety of scales.
Without extensive industry or a large transport sector or widespread grid
electrification in the District, the dominant sources of emissions are from
waste management and household level energy use. Emissions from waste
can be addressed through re-use, recycling, and waste separation – i.e.
through waste minimization. Emissions from agriculture and other land
uses can be addressed through range management, rehabilitation, soil
conservation, and well managed forestry. Many of these processes could
also act as carbon sinks, trapping greenhouse gases and removing them
from the atmosphere.
Fundamentally, in the ANDM, sound management of natural resources will
prevent or at least minimise risks posed by changes in surface water
runoff, soil erosion, flooding, fire, storms, and sea level rise. The ecological
infrastructure of the ANDM is its primary climate response asset and
damage to ecological infrastructure can significantly increase the risk that
the District faces. Careful and proactive management of ecological
infrastructure is cost-effective compared to engineered solutions and
provides the opportunity for ANDM to leverage its assets. This approach to
climate change response, utilising natural resources and ecosystems to
buffer and support people’s adaptation to change, is often called
Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA).
Policies and programmes that work to diversify livelihoods, protect against
shocks, and promote inclusive growth can help people manage social and
economic risks that climate change causes. Climate sensitive social
protection systems can also support recovery from climate-related
disasters, and integration with insurance policies can help households
weather extreme events.
Climate is a cross-cutting issue, with the potential to affect the built
environment, service delivery, the natural environment, the economy, and
human health and well-being in equal measure. It is important that
climate change is seen not as a concern for the environment only, but one
of sustainable development and integrated planning in the ANDM.
Adaptation and mitigation responses are often very integrated, covering
general good practice responses that will build resilience to climate change
and other pressures through service delivery, innovation, and natural
resource management.
Figure b: Map of ecosystem based adaptation priorities in the Alfred Nzo District
municipality. Red and orange areas indicate the areas of highest value for EbA – the most
important ecological infrastructure for climate change response – while grey areas indicate
heavily transformed or impacted areas – the least important ecological infrastructure for
climate change response.
Rural economies in the ANDM are primarily dependent on agriculture,
herding, and tourism activities, in addition to social grants and retail and
trading activities. These are all directly or indirectly vulnerable to climate
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change. High levels of poverty, low levels of access to services, and high
levels of direct dependence on the environment for water, fuel, food,
grazing, and building materials also contribute to vulnerability to climate
change. This aligns climate change response directly with municipal
mandates and integrated development planning.
In the energy sector, there are many opportunities for low carbon
development using new technologies and techniques. These include
renewable and alternative energy sources, such as solar and biogas.
In the waste management sector, there are many opportunities to reduce
emissions from waste through improved refuse collection coverage, and
waste minimisation, recycling, and buy-back centre schemes.
In the water sector, there are many opportunities to build climate
resilience through increasing water storage capabilities, promoting water
efficiency and demand management, and improving the health of the
region’s water catchments through rehabilitation and alien clearing.
In the transport section, there are opportunities to set standards for low
emissions and vehicle efficiency, and to maintain roads to a standard that
supports vehicle efficiency.
In the health sector, there are opportunities to support food security
through climate resilient agriculture, increase access to safe and reliable
water and sanitation, strengthen early warning systems, educate the
population about the potential health risks of climate change, and build
the capacity of local clinics to respond to climate related health risks.
In the infrastructure and service delivery sector, there are opportunities
to assess critical infrastructure in terms of long term climate risk and
implement risk reduction strategies, consider climate change impacts and
ecological infrastructure in infrastructure planning, and build early warning
and disaster response capacities.
There are other sectors in the ANDM which are very important for climate
change response even though they are not directly the mandate of local
government. These are agriculture and other land uses, biodiversity, and
tourism, and are important for the ANDM to be aware of and engaged in
because these form the basis of local livelihoods. Partnerships with other
spheres of government, and with civil society and donors, will enable the
ANDM to have an impact in these sectors. To support this, the ANDM
already has sector plans which inform their engagements in each of these
sectors.
In the agriculture sector, there are many opportunities for local economic
development by adjusting crop and livestock farming practices, including
breed/variety, timing, and management practices, to accommodate
changing climatic conditions; and also to develop early warning systems
and decision support tools specifically for small scale farmers.
In the biodiversity sector, there are many opportunities to mobilise public
works programmes and create employment in the ANDM restoring and
managing the ecosystems that provide critical climate change adaptation
services such as water and grazing in the ANDM.
In the tourism sector, as tourism in the ANDM is largely nature-based,
there are opportunities to promote the protection of the biodiversity
tourists come to see and to support tourism based livelihoods in the
District.
A large part of making progress in climate responsiveness in these sectors
will be ensuring that capacity for climate integrated planning and
implementation is built in the District, and that the appetite for this is
created in the communities through targeted education. In this report,
section 5.7, we provide a number of tools to support this process.
In the town planning sector, there are important opportunities for zoning
and land use decision making to ensure that important EbA priority areas
(Figure b) are zoned for restricted uses only and protected as far as
possible.
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Figure c: An example of an Ug cartoon, one of the environmental education resources
included in the ANDM climate strategy for building community capacity on climate change.
Resources for climate change response are needed. While existing
legislation does provide an overarching mandate for municipalities to
address sustainability broadly, this is neither a strong nor a clear mandate
in terms of addressing climate change specifically. This is complicated by
the fact that there are currently no dedicated budgets for climate change
response at the local level.
to what can be funded through local budgets, Through a suite of ‘green
funds’, local government can increasingly access finance for the
implementation of the climate change adaptation and mitigation projects
outlined in this strategy. To access these additional funds, the ANDM will
need to develop internal capacities in proposal writing and grant
administration. Developing this capacity must be a priority if the ANDM
hopes to resource the response actions required. Working with partners in
National and Provincial government departments, NGOs, and the private
sector will also support with this while as the ANDM develops internal
capacity.
Now that a baseline climate change vulnerability assessment has been
conducted and appropriate climate change responses aligned with
municipal mandates have been identified, the ANDM must track its
transition to a low carbon and climate resilient status.
Adaptation efforts seek to support ongoing development in the face of
changing environmental conditions.
One way in which this can be addressed is by lobbying National Treasury
for dedicated local adaptation finance through the Government Technical
Adaptation Centre and communicating lessons learned to inform resource
allocation in DEA’s Natural Resource Management programmes and Long
Term Adaptation Policy development processes.
At the local level, the ANDM can address climate response funding gaps by
considering existing budget streams and project types in a way that
considers effective climate change response planning. Re-thinking typical
sources of local government funding for service delivery, such as equitable
share, public works, conditional grants, and municipal infrastructure grants
to support climate change adaptation and mitigation, is critical. With good
planning and a sound understanding of the potential climate related risks
the ANDM is facing, these funds can be effectively used to implement
climate resilient service delivery and capacity building projects at the local
level, and using existing resources.
International climate finance presents an opportunity to access special
project funds for climate change adaptation that are required in addition
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Contents
Preface .......................................................................................................... 1
Acknowledgements ...................................................................................... 2
Citation ......................................................................................................... 2
4.5 Transport Sector ............................................................................... 50
4.6 Solid Waste Management ................................................................ 50
4.7 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use ....................................... 52
Executive Summary ...................................................................................... 3
4.8 Alignment with ecosystem service and ecosystem-based climate
change adaptation ventures .................................................................. 53
Section 1: Introduction ............................................................................... 10
4.9 Mitigation Risks and Opportunities .................................................. 54
1.1 Climate change response strategy ................................................... 10
Section 5: ANDM Integrated Climate Change Response Action Plan ......... 55
1.2 Strategy Development Method ....................................................... 11
5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 55
1.3 Overview of the ANDM .................................................................... 13
5.2 Overarching Climate Change Responses .......................................... 57
1.4 Climate Change Definitions .............................................................. 17
5.3 Ecosystem-based Adaptation Priority Areas to Guide Targets ........ 62
1.5 Report outline .................................................................................. 18
5.4 Sector-based Responses................................................................... 66
Section 2: Climate Change Predictions for the ANDM ................................ 19
5.5 Evaluating Projects for Climate Responsiveness .............................. 78
Section 3: A Climate Change Risk Assessment for the ANDM .................... 28
5.6 Resources for Implementation ......................................................... 81
3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 28
5.7 Communications, Public Awareness, and Education ....................... 86
3.2 Method ............................................................................................ 29
Section 6: Monitoring and Evaluation ........................................................ 91
3.3 Temperature .................................................................................... 31
6.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 91
3.4 Rainfall ............................................................................................. 32
6.3 Tracking Adaptation – operationalising the ANDM Vulnerability
Index....................................................................................................... 92
3.5 Water supply and Infrastructure...................................................... 33
3.6 Biodiversity ...................................................................................... 37
3.7 Agriculture ....................................................................................... 41
3.8 Sea level rise and Storm Surge ......................................................... 42
6.4 Tracking Mitigation .......................................................................... 98
Section 7: Conclusion ................................................................................ 100
Selected Literature and Resources ........................................................... 104
3.9 Human Health .................................................................................. 45
Section 4: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Mitigation Responses
.................................................................................................................... 47
4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................... 47
4.2 Method ............................................................................................ 47
4.3 Overview of the energy sector in the ANDM ................................... 48
4.4 Energy Use and Source .................................................................... 49
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List of Figures
Figure 1: Alfred Nzo District Municipality ................................................... 13
Figure 2: Autumn and winter season average temperature projection
maps for the ANDM .................................................................................... 23
Figure 3: Summer season rainfall change projection maps for the ANDM 24
Figure 4: Summarised results of the ANDM biome climate envelope models
.................................................................................................................... 25
Figure 5: The number of frost days in the Matatiele area .......................... 26
Figure 6: The number and extent of hot days above 32°C in Matatiele,
medium term .............................................................................................. 26
Figure 7: The number and extent of hot days above 32°C in Matatiele, long
term ............................................................................................................ 27
Figure 8: The number and extent of hot days above 36°C in Matatiele,
medium term .............................................................................................. 27
Figure 9: The number and extent of hot days above 36°C in Matatiele area,
long term. ................................................................................................... 27
Figure 10: Average runoff for the period 2040-2050 ................................ 36
Figure 11: An analysis of the percentage of buildings within river buffers. 36
Figure 12: Areas at high risk of soil erosion in the ANDM. ........................ 36
Figure 13: Evaluation of climate change induced risks for habitat loss. ..... 43
Figure 14: Evaluation of climate change induced risks for species loss...... 43
Figure 15: Map showing coastal areas of Alfred Nzo District under 5m
above sea level. .......................................................................................... 44
Figure 16: Alfred Nzo District Municipality proportionate CO2 equivalent
emissions by sector .................................................................................... 48
Figure 17: Average Proportional Electricity Consumption (2011-2012) per
sector. ......................................................................................................... 50
Figure 18: The climate change response cycle (IPCC 2007, DEDEA 2011) .. 57
Figure 19: Illustration of the expansion of fields, road infrastructure, and
dwellings into a valley bottom wetland in the Matatiele Municipality. ..... 61
Figure 20: Map summarizing the poverty of access to services in the
ANDM. ........................................................................................................ 61
Figure 21: Map of ecosystem based adaptation priorities in the Alfred Nzo
District municipality.. .................................................................................. 63
Figure 22: Ecosystem-based priority areas ................................................ 64
Figure 23: Strategic focus areas related primarily to mitigation ................ 66
Figure 24: Strategic focus areas related primarily to adaptation ............... 66
Figure 25: Ug Cartoon number 7: conserve fresh water............................. 88
Figure 26: Ug cartoon number 33: turning off ............................................ 88
Figure 27: Ug cartoon lesson plan which goes with Cartoon number 7 .... 89
Figure 28: Ug Cartoon lesson plan which goes with Cartoon number 33 ... 90
Figure 29: Municipal Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Calculator (DEA
2012) ........................................................................................................... 99
List of Tables
Table 1: Local Municipalities and Towns in the ANDM ............................... 14
Table 2: Population distribution and density in the ANDM ........................ 14
Table 3: Levels of service delivery in the ANDM, shown as the %
households receiving a particular service ................................................... 14
Table 4: A summary of the policy and planning enabling environment ..... 15
Table 5: Current and 50 year modelled seasonal and annual temperature
and precipitation......................................................................................... 21
Table 6: Current and 100 year modelled seasonal and annual temperature
and precipitation......................................................................................... 22
Table 7: Summary of direct temperature related risks ............................... 31
Table 8: Summary of direct rainfall change related risk ............................. 32
Table 9: Summary of climate related surface water runoff risks ................ 33
Table 10: Summary of flooding related risk ................................................ 34
Table 11: Summary of climate change related soil erosion risks ................ 35
Table 12: Biome stability and associated risks ............................................ 37
Table 13: Climate change related ecological infrastructure risks ............... 38
Table 14: Climate change related habitat loss risks .................................... 39
Table 15: Climate change related species loss risks.................................... 40
Table 16: Climate change related agriculture risks ..................................... 41
Table 17: Climate change related risks for storm surge and sea level rise . 42
Table 18: Predicted changes in maize production ...................................... 43
Table 19: Climate change related human health risks ................................ 45
Table 20: Water supply and its links to health risks. ................................... 46
Table 21: Access to sufficient sanitation and its links to health risks ......... 46
Table 22: Access to energy sources and links to health risks ...................... 46
Table 24: List of overarching climate change responses ............................ 58
Table 25: Average Ecosystem-based adaptation score per category. ........ 62
Table 26: Table summarising number of hectares per municipality that
should be priority for restoration and land management targets .............. 65
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Table 27: Table summarising typical ANDM implementation projects and
possible climate response options per strategic focus sector.. .................. 68
Table 28: Guiding questions per category in the climate responsive project
evaluation matrix ....................................................................................... 78
Table 29: Multi-criterion matrix for climate response project selection .... 80
Table 30: Sub-indicators for ecological and socio-economic vulnerability .93
Table 31: Framework for assessing climate change vulnerability in the
ANDM ......................................................................................................... 94
Annexes
Annex 1: Literature Review
Annex 2: An overview of the institutional policy context
Annex 3: Climate Risk Assessment: detailed methods
Annex 4: Climate Risk Assessment: full size maps
Annex 5: Reports from stakeholder consultations
Annex 6: Public awareness and education materials.
Annex 7: Facilitation resources for operationalising the Let’s Respond
Toolkit
Annex 8: DEA Situational Analysis and Needs Assessment questionnaire
Annex 9: DEA 2012 carbon emissions calculator.
Annex 10: Additional data and detailed methods discussions for the
agriculture, forestry, and other land uses assessment
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Section 1: Introduction
1.1 Climate change response strategy
Climate Change is happening, human interference with the climate system
is occurring, and climate change poses risks for both human and natural
systems (IPCC, 2014). Observed impacts attributed to climate change have
already been recorded in South Africa, for terrestrial ecosystems, human
livelihoods and health, and economics (IPCC, 2014).
People and societies may perceive climate change risks and potential
benefits differently, given their diverse values and goals (Dunlop et al
2013). Nationally, climate change has potentially serious implications for
the water sector, agriculture and forestry, and human health, and thus for
South Africa’s ability to maintain economic growth into the future (DEA
2015). Climate change is likely to disproportionately affect populations
who are already vulnerable due to poverty, a lack access to basic services,
and spatial isolation from markets and infrastructure, all of which are
relevant in the ANDM. Migration is a common adaptation strategy for
vulnerable groups, in response to joblessness and general poverty. This
may be exacerbated by climate change impacts on local environmental
conditions, and may lead to increasing conflict over scarce resources both
in the rural areas and urban centres. Climate change could also contribute
to failures of infrastructure and service provision, exacerbating existing
service delivery shortfalls (DEA 2015).
There are many potential risks associated with climate change. There is
also a lot that can be done to address these risks, both in terms of coping
with change and minimising impacts, and several opportunities for low
carbon and sustainable development. Although a major national concern,
virtually all climate change adaptation takes place at the local municipal
level (Pasquini and Cowling, 2014), making local government a critical
planning and response centre.
The climate change response strategy technical document presented here
aims to ensure that climate response actions for the Alfred Nzo District
Municipality (ANDM) are grounded in science; developed, implemented,
and revisited on a regular basis in order to mainstream climate change
response into District and local level Integrated Development Plans (IDP)
and other plans. Broadly the purpose of the climate change strategy is to
provide a comprehensive assessment of climate risk as well as integrated
and sector-specific guidance and resources for climate response. The
strategy guides the integration of climate change risk and response into all
related activities in the District including, but not limited to, planning,
service delivery, and project implementation and operation.
All the solutions proposed in the strategy are fundamentally underpinned
by ecosystem based approaches and the core recommendation is to
improve climate resilience for the District by enhancing ecological
infrastructure. The critical tension between achieving sustainable
development objectives while simultaneously adapting effectively to
climate change and avoiding an expanded carbon footprint is highlighted,
with recommendations focused fundamentally on addressing this tension.
Specifically, we aim to
 Identify the major sources of climate change related risk in the
ANDM, based on the most up-to-date scientific information
available
 Present these risks at a relevant local scale and in an accessible
spatial and table format for use in decision-making
 Identify appropriate and realistic response options that address
the identified risks, with reference to water, energy, health,
transport, infrastructure, housing, agriculture, biodiversity, waste
management, and tourism
 Provide realistic climate change response options which ANDM
officials can use for setting targets and reporting, related to both
emissions reductions and climate resilient land use (land-care)
 Ensure that no current or proposed projects in the IDPs or other
planning documents undermine climate change mitigation or
adaptation efforts in the District
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Supplement the response recommendations, targets, and project
assessments with tools for climate resilient project design,
monitoring and evaluation, and public awareness and education
Identify resources and possible sources of funding which could be
accessed for implementation of the strategy.
The main objectives of the strategy are to support the ANDM with its
climate change response goals, to:
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Increase resilience through the management of wetlands, as well
as flood, drought, erosion, and siltation events; water
conservation and demand management; responding to
environmental emergencies through disaster management; and
the basic provision of services
Transition to a low carbon economy. Until energy poverty is
addressed, there can be no local economic development.
Entrepreneurship around renewable energy, green economy,
recycling and re-use, and Green Integrated Development Zones
will be encouraged
Change behaviour through education and awareness and getting
buy-in from all levels
Build and maintain robust infrastructure that considers impacts on
ecological infrastructure and plans to avoid unnecessary risk
Undertake truly integrated planning which is spatially specific and
takes into account the risks and opportunities associated with
long term climate change.
The full application of the information presented in this strategy will put
the ANDM on the path to achieving their goal of becoming the most
climate aware District Municipality in the country.
1.2 Strategy Development Method
Natural resource management is viewed as underpinning all adaptation
and mitigation work, with the main outcome being restored functioning
ecosystems and biodiversity which can provide resources and services on
which people depend and from which they can be more adaptable. This
climate change response strategy focuses on largely ecosystem based
climate responsive service delivery and sustainable development, and the
empowerment of communities to improve their lives and those of future
generations through effective and flexible land management that reduces
the risks and optimises the opportunities presented by climate change.
A detailed literature review was conducted to assess the current state of
adaptation and mitigation in the ANDM. This included a comprehensive
review of existing and newly developed legislation that supports climate
change adaptation and mitigation. The recently completed ANDM Climate
Change Vulnerability Assessment, the ANDM Energy Regeneration
Strategy, the Eastern Cape Climate Change Response Strategy, and the
national Long term Adaptation and Mitigation Scenarios (LTAS and LTMAS)
research products provide the basis upon which this strategy builds.
All available sector master plans, management plans, and IDPs were
assessed for alignment opportunities, project ideas, current risks, funding
sources, and potentially maladaptive projects.
The full literature review is available as Annex 1 and the detailed overview
of the policy and institutional framework is available as Annex 2.
A comprehensive risk assessment was then conducted. The first step in
this assessment was to revisit the likely future climate scenario for the
ANDM based on LTAS and regionally downscaled climate change
projections that were presented in the ANDM Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment (CSA 2015). This was a clear assessment of likely climate
change in terms of the primary (basic changes in temperature and
precipitation) and secondary (modelled impacts of temperature and
rainfall changes on biome climatic envelopes) drivers of climate risk in the
ANDM. Changes in surface water runoff was added to further inform an
assessment of changing risk in the District, and what this may mean for the
people and environment in the ANDM.
Then, key areas where these changes could result in increased risk to the
people and environment of the ANDM were assessed. These include
agriculture, flooding – infrastructure and disaster management,
biodiversity, soil erosion, sea level rise and storm surges, and human
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health. Using maps and risk tables to summarise detailed information for
decision making, each climate related impact was assessed for its
consequences for people, infrastructure, and settlements. Risks are
assessed in the medium and long term where relevant, rated as Low,
Moderate, High, or Very High risks, and the basis for this assessment
described. For each risk, adaptation responses have been identified
through stakeholder engagement, literature review, application of
scientific data, and reference to experts.
Mapping the spatial distribution of social resources, such as access to basic
services or ownership of assets, as well as ecological resources, such as
areas critical for supplying ecosystem services and supporting climate
resilience, provides an opportunity for decision makers at the local level to
plan and implement win-win adaptation interventions. These specific
planning support tools can be found in the ANDM Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment (CSA 2015) and support the recommendations
made in this document.
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Detailed methods and all the full size maps are available in Annex 3 and
Annex 4 respectively.
Stakeholder engagement was carried out to identify priority projects,
extreme events hotspots, critical policies and plans, and potential
adaptation and mitigation opportunities and barriers. In compliance with
Chapter 4 of the Municipal Systems Act, stakeholder consultation related
to this project was conducted on:
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11 and 24 March 2014 – workshops on economic tools and
instruments for natural resource management. Workshops were
held in Matatiele with a focus on financial mechanisms for
rangeland, wetland, and fire management as well as ecological
restoration.
1 and 2 April 2014 – ANDM Climate Change Adaptation Summit.
This event was held in Matatiele, attended by more than 100
people from government, civil society, and research institutions,
and focused on identifying climate change response priorities and
projects.
13 and 14 May 2015 – Umzimvubu Catchment Partnership
Programme strategic planning workshop. This workshop was held
in Matatiele, attended by 19 people representing government and
civil society, and focused on identifying climate related disaster
hotspots and priority response projects.
26 May 2015 – ANDM Climate Strategy Inception Meeting. This
meeting was held in Mount Ayliff, attended by 18 people
representing government and civil society, and focused on
reviewing and inputting into the draft impacts assessment and
strategy outline.
6 to 10 July 2015 – ANDM Climate Change Strategy Road Show.
This was a series of meetings with government officials and civil
society representatives in Matatiele LM, Ntabankulu LM,
Mzimvubu LM, and Mbizana LM, with 37 people, and focused on
sharing the draft strategy with stakeholders for their input,
participatory hazard mapping, sourcing additional policies and
planning documents, identifying major current and pipeline
projects, scoping current access to project funding, and exploring
the role of traditional leadership in climate change decisionmaking.
29 July 2015 – ANDM Climate Change Strategy Workshop. This
meeting was held in Mount Ayliff, attended by 20 people
representing DEDEAT, ANDM, the local municipalities, and CSA.
The meeting was to review the draft strategy with interested
parties and government stakeholders to inform the final
document.
Reports from all the stakeholder engagements are available as Annex 5.
Resources for financing adaptation and mitigation, sharing information
with communities and schools, and tracking mitigation and adaptation
progress were identified, or created, to ensure that the strategy provides
the ANDM with effective and user-friendly tools for implementation and
review. Annex 6 contains public awareness and education materials and
Annex 7 contains supplementary facilitation tools that accompany the DEA
(2012) Let’s Respond Toolkit for mainstreaming climate change into local
government planning.
12
Although in practice very integrated, the mitigation component of the
strategy has particularly focused on emissions reduction, infrastructure
retrofitting, and energy supply and efficiency, including a review of priority
factors that can influence energy security. The adaptation component has
focused largely on attaining a healthy and resilient socio-ecological system
in the ANDM that includes climate responsive planning, service delivery,
land use, and infrastructure development across the board.
1.3 Overview of the ANDM
1.3.1 Geographic context and topography
The ANDM is located on the north eastern corner of the Eastern Cape
Province. It is bordered by Lesotho to the west, the Sisonke District
Municipality, Kwa‐Zulu Natal to the north, and OR Tambo District
Municipality, Eastern Cape, to the south and east (Figure 1).
The N2 links the ANDM with its neighbouring municipalities. The N2 is an
important link to Kokstad in Sisonke and Umthatha in OR Tambo District,
as well as the rest of the Eastern Cape Province.
Topographically, the ANDM is mountainous in interior and hilly on the
coastal plain, with an average altitude of 700-800m, dropping steeply to
the coast. Characterised by red‐yellow soils, the geology is predominantly
cave sandstone, underlain by silt and mudstone.
The ANDM falls within the Umzimvubu river basin, a critical water factory.
Most of the perennial streams in the area converge to form the primary
tributaries of the upper Umzimvubu catchment, and the stream valleys are
fairly steep‐sided with good groundcover. The northern parts of the
District have extensive wetlands which are not fed by flowing rivers.
Figure 1: Alfred Nzo District Municipality
1.3.2 General climate conditions
In the ANDM, climatic conditions are influenced by the orographic effect of
the Drakensberg Mountains. Rainfall is fairly high with an average annual
total precipitation of between 500mm and 1,500mm. Rainfall decreases
gradually along an altitudinal gradient in an easterly direction away from
the escarpment. The ANDM is a summer rainfall region (October‐March)
with cold winters. Snow and frost are common in winter in the high‐lying
areas.
Average temperatures are relatively moderate ranging between 7‐10°C in
winter and 18‐ 24°C in summer. Winters in the high-lying areas are cold,
frequently dropping below zero.
13
1.3.3 Administrative boundaries
The ANDM consists of four local municipalities, containing seven towns
and many smaller settlements. The ANDM has a population of about 900
000 people, distributed unevenly between the 4 municipalities (Table 1
and Table 2).
approximately 40% of the population live below the poverty line (DEDEAT
2013). Access to education, piped water, adequate sanitation, formal
housing, and electricity are low, reducing the adaptive capacity of these
communities. See Table 3.
Table 3: Levels of service delivery in the ANDM, shown as the % households
receiving a particular service
Table 1: Local Municipalities and Towns in the ANDM
Local Municipalities
Matatiele
Area km
4,532
Umzimvubu
2,506
Ntabankulu
Mbizana
Alfred Nzo
1,455
2,806
11,119
2
Towns
Matatiele
Maluti
Cedarville
Mount Ayliff
Mount Frere
Ntabankulu
Bizana
Table 2: Population distribution and density in the ANDM
Municipality
Population
Matatiele
258,758
Umzimvubu
220,636
Ntabankulu
141,358
Mbizana
279,739
Alfred Nzo
900,491
1.3.4 Socio‐economic context
Population
distribution %
25.4
24
15.4
35.2
Population
2
density /km
59
88
97
100
81
The ANDM is largely a rural municipality with a number of rural
settlements scattered around the District. It is characterised overall by low
levels of economic activity and a high dependence on government
employment and social grants. The region is underdeveloped and a full
36% of residents rely wholly on social grants for their household income.
The region contributes a relatively small portion (5%) to the Eastern Cape’s
Provincial GDP. There are very high levels of food insecurity (86%), and
Service delivered
Education
Piped Water
Sanitation
Formal Housing
Electricity for lighting and heating
%
12.6
5.8
5.1
41
46.2
1.3.5 Institutional and policy context
South Africa has developed a powerful and coherent environmental
legislation with the country’s constitution containing the bill of rights
which promotes a sustainable human-environment relationship. Section 24
of the constitution sets up an enabling environment for the enforcement
of environmental legislation.
South Africa has also developed a comprehensive set of Long Term
Adaptation (DEA 2013, 2015) and Mitigation (DEAT 2007) Scenarios for the
country. All of these policies and plans at the national, provincial, and local
government level serve to inform the strategy, along with the town and
community level governance structures.
There are, however, significant challenges regarding resource availability,
capacity, and varied stresses that impact on institutional functions and the
ability to implement, or to enforce these sustainability goals and
environmental laws.
Please see Annex 2 for a comprehensive overview of national, provincial
and local environmental management legislation. These are also
summarised in Table 4 below
14
Table 4: A summary of the policy and planning enabling environment for coordinated climate change response in the ANDM
International Conventions
National Acts and Policies
National Plans and Strategies
Provincial Plans and
Strategies
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(United Nations) Convention on Biological Diversity
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa 1996
National Climate Change Response Policy (White Paper) 2011
Renewable Energy White Paper 2003
National Long Term Mitigation Scenarios 2007
National Long Term Adaptation Scenarios 2014
National Environmental Management Act 1998
National Environment Management: Waste act 2008
National Energy Act 2008
National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act 2004
National Environmental Management: Protected Areas Act 2004
Mountain Catchment Areas Act 1970
National Environmental Management: Integrated Coastal Management Act 2008
National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act 2004
National Water Act 1998
National Forest Act 1998
Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Act 2013
Municipal Systems Act 2000
National Development Plan (Vision 2030) 2010
National Water Resource Strategy 2013
National Waste Management Strategy 2010
Integrated Energy Plan 2011
Energy Efficiency Strategy 2005
National Transport Master Plan 2012
Public Transport Strategy and Action Plan 2007
Environmental Protection and Infrastructure Programme
National Framework for Disaster Risk Management 2005
National Strategy for Sustainable Development and action plan 2011-2014
Eastern Cape Provincial Growth and Development Plan 2004
Eastern Cape Climate Change Response Strategy 2011
Eastern Cape Biodiversity Conservation Plan 2007
Wild Coast Spatial Development Framework 2009
Eastern Cape Rural Development Strategy 2010
15
District Plans and Strategies
Local Government Plans
Town and Community Level
Governance
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Environmental Management Plan 2010
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Integrated Risk Management Framework 2009
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Integrated Transport Plan 2009
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Energy Regeneration Strategy2014
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Integrated Development Plan 2014/2015
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Water Services Development Plan 2012
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Tourism Sector Plan 2012
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Grain Master Plan 2014
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Sanitation Master Plan
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Disaster Management Plan 2014
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Service Delivery Budget and Implementation plan 2014
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Wastewater Risk Abatement Plan 2012
Alfred Nzo District Municipality Spatial Development Framework 2014
Local Municipalities’ Integrated Development Plans
Local Municipalities’ Integrated Waste Management Plans 2014
Local Municipalities’ Service Delivery and Budget Implementation Plans
Local Municipalities’ Spatial Development Frameworks
Local Municipalities’ Local Economic Development Strategies
Local Municipalities’ Tourism Sector Plans
Local Municipalities’ Agricultural Development Plans
Local Municipalities’ Housing Sector Plans
Ward committees
Community-based development organisations
Non-governmental organisations
Traditional leaders
16
1.4 Climate Change Definitions
Human induced climate change has been identified as one of the major
challenges which will face humanity in the 21st century. According to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC 2013) it is extremely likely that more than half of the
observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to
2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas (GHG)
concentrations in the atmosphere as well as other human-driven forces.
Both mitigation and adaptation are required to respond to global climate
change as GHG levels in the atmosphere must be reduced in order to keep
the earth within safe operating levels, and adaptation measures must be
taken to reduce the impacts of the environmental changes likely to occur
over the coming years.
Climate Change refers to long-term shifts in weather patterns. It may
involve a change in the average weather patterns (e.g. more or less
rainfall) or in the frequency and/or intensity of events (e.g. more or fewer
storms). It is the long term change in climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods. (UNFCCC Article 1)
This is different from Global Warming which, although a related term,
refers specifically to increases in average global temperature. Increasing
temperatures are a driver of climate change, but will not be the only
impact of climate change.
Greenhouse Gases are the atmospheric gases responsible for causing
global warming and climate change. The major GHGs are carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N20). Less prevalent - but very
powerful - GHGs are hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). The major sources of GHGs are burning of
fossil fuels, deforestation, and some agricultural practices.
The greenhouse effect is the result of the accumulation of GHGs in the
earth's atmosphere. This is a natural and generally desirable process,
keeping the Earth habitable. GHGs are, however, intensifying the
greenhouse effect, trapping energy, raising global temperatures and risks
changing the climate.
Mitigation refers to activities undertaken in order to limit the effects of
climate change on global systems. Such activities specifically focus on
decreasing GHG emissions into the atmosphere through energy and land
use efficiency and/or increasing the amount of GHGs removed from the
atmosphere by greenhouse sinks. Large amounts of GHGs have already
been released into the atmosphere, are currently steadily increasing, and
will remain there for many years to come. Some impacts of climate change
are, therefore, already locked in. Although mitigation is very important,
adaptation is also critical.
Climate change adaptation is defined as the process of adjustment to
actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation
seeks to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural
systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected
climate changes and its affects. Adaptation is largely hinged on adaptive
capacity which is defined as the ability to adjust to potential impacts.
Ecosystem-based adaptation refers specifically to the use of biodiversity
and ecosystem services as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help
people to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. Ecological
Infrastructure refers to naturally functioning ecosystems that deliver
valuable services to people
Climate change response and climate preparedness, using both adaptation
and mitigation techniques, seek to reduce vulnerability – the degree to
which a system is susceptible or unable to respond to, impacts of climate
change including climate variability and extremes – and increase resilience
- the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while
retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for
self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change.
17
1.5 Report outline
Section 7: concludes the report and summarises the suggested a way
forward for the ANDM.
This report includes 7 Sections and 10 Annexes.
The Annexes 1-4 present detailed methods and data sources and
additional information on some sections of the strategy presented here.
Section 1: the current chapter has served to set the scene, define the
terms, describe the status quo, and introduce the overall aim and
relevance of this report.
Section 2: describes the climatic changes that the ANDM can expect in the
future, in terms of changes in temperature and rainfall patterns and the
projected effect of such changes for the future stability of the ANDM’s
major biomes.
Section 3: provides the comprehensive climate change risk assessment
which evaluates the risks and opportunities presented by the climatic
changes described in Section 2. Potential consequences for people of
temperature increases, changes in rainfall patterns, changes in water
related processes such as surface water runoff, flooding, and soil erosion,
biodiversity (biome shifts, loss of ecological infrastructure, habitat loss, and
species loss), agriculture (livestock and grains), sea level rise and storm
surge, and human health are discussed in detail.
Section 4: provides a greenhouse gas emissions inventory for the ANDM,
highlighting the critical high emissions sectors and activities currently, as
well as opportunities for low carbon development.
Section 5: presents the climate change response action plan for the ANDM
focusing on priority sectors in order to clarify climate response and
preparedness actions that have clear roles and responsibilities, are linked
to particular departments, mandates, budgets, and plans, and identify
particular project options for implementation now and in the future. It
includes the communications, education, and public awareness strategy.
Section 6: discusses monitoring and evaluation tools and processes that
the ANDM can implement in order to track progress towards increasing
adaptive capacity and reduced GHG emissions over time.
Specifically, Annex 1 contains the full literature review supporting the
recommendations made in the strategy
Annex 2 provides an overview of the Institutional and Policy context in
which climate change response planning takes place.
Annex 3 contains additional data and detailed methods discussions for the
spatial climate change risk assessment.
Annex 4 contains all the maps shown here, and selected additional maps
and charts used in the analysis, in a larger format.
Annex 5 provides all the stakeholder engagement reports
Annex 6 contains all of the accompanying public awareness and education
materials.
Annex 7 contains facilitation resources for operationalising the Let’s
Respond Toolkit, a guide for mainstreaming climate change in municipal
decision-making.
Annex 8 contains the full DEA Situational Analysis and Needs Assessment
questionnaire, which the ANDM can use as part of its adaptation
monitoring, to track changes in internal climate change capacity over time.
Annex 9 is the DEA (2012) carbon emissions calculator.
Annex 10 contains additional data and detailed methods discussions for
the agriculture, forestry, and other land uses assessment presented in
Section 4.
18
Section 2: Climate Change Predictions for
the ANDM
Based on regional dynamical downscaling of three Global Climate Models
presented in the ANDM Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CSA
2015), climate change projections for the ANDM can be summarised as
follows:






Temperature projections predict increases in temperatures for
the ANDM, with an average increase of 1.7°C over the medium
(2050) term and 3.7°C over the long term (2100).
Slight variations in temperature projections are evident between
inland and coastal areas over the long term, whereby Mbizana is
predicted to increase in temperature by 3.7°C and inland areas by
up to 4°C.
Consistently, the greatest increases in temperature are projected
for the winter months, and the smallest increases in the spring
months.
Rainfall projections are for small changes in rainfall, varying
somewhat over the medium and long term and also diverging
across models. Over the medium term the models predict a slight
decrease in rainfall on average, while in the longer term an overall
increase in rainfall is projected on average.
Overall precipitation shows little change in either seasonal pattern
or total quantity, but variability of rainfall between years is likely.
It is likely that the number and intensity of major rainfall events
will increase.
The outputs of the three models are summarised for each local
municipality, and as an average, in Table 5 for the medium term and Table
6 for the long term. Figure 2 provides an example, from the CSIRO model,
of medium and long term projected increases in temperature for the
autumn and winter months in the ANDM. All three models broadly agree
on the direction and magnitude of change and therefore only one model is
shown. Figure 3 gives an example of medium and long term projected
changes in median annual summer rainfall, comparing the CSIRO and
MIROC models. That most rain falls in the summer months is unlikely to
change. There is, however, some divergence in the models regards the
direction of change in total rainfall amounts. Therefore two contrasting
models are shown, one projecting that summer rainfall stays the same
(CSIRO) and one that it decreases slightly (MIROC).
These climatic changes have potential consequences for people. They also
have consequences for the ecosystems upon which people depend for
agriculture and for ecosystem services. As part of the ANDM Climate
Change Vulnerability Assessment (ANDM 2015), biome climatic envelope
modelling was conducted to identify possible impacts of the temperature
and rainfall changes on the stability of the region’s main biomes – the
Savanna, Grassland, and Coastal Belt biomes. Figure 4 summarises these
results, showing that increasing temperatures are likely to facilitate an
extension of conditions suitable for Savanna into current Grasslands.
The major impacts on biome stability are likely to be:
•
Conditions associated with the Coastal Belt biome gradually push
inland in the short term and continue with this trend in the longer term.
This is associated with larger areas of sub-tropical coastal conditions.
•
Areas with a climate envelope characteristic of Savanna persist in
the medium and longer term and push dramatically inland into areas
currently associated with a Grassland climate envelope. Likely warmer
winter temperatures could allow tree seedlings to establish in areas where
frost would previously have excluded them.
•
Areas with a climate envelope characteristic of the Grassland
biome appear most sensitive to changes in climate. In the medium term,
large portions of the Grassland climate envelope are lost, while in the
longer term, areas with these climate characteristics are restricted only to
the highest altitudes.
For more detailed information on expected climate change and the climate
and biome stability models, please see the ANDM Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment technical report and its annexes (CSA 2015).
19
Based on projections prepared by the Climate Systems Analysis Group
(CSAG) at the University of Cape Town, the ANDM can also expect a
significant reduction in the number of frost days it receives in a winter
season, and a significant increase in the number of days of extreme heat in
the summer months. Frost is one of the major climate drivers in grassland
ecosystems, helping along with fire to prevent bush encroachment.
Temperature is a critical driver of livestock productivity. For each 1°C
above 30, most livestock reduce their feed intake by as much as 5%
(Thornton et al 2015). Here we present the results from CSAG’s analyses
using the climate scenario RCP8.5, which is most comparable with our
other analyses using the relatively high emissions scenario, SRES A2. The
projections are relative to baseline temperature data from a weather
station in Matatiele. Weather station data for other areas in the ANDM
was not available.
In the medium term, the average number of days above 36°C is projected
to increase from almost zero, to roughly one a month in the warmer
months from October to March (Figure 8). This increases to up to 4 days a
month above 36°C towards the end of the century and shows a similar long
term pattern of extension of hot days in historically cooler months (Figure
9).
In the medium term, as shown in Figure 5, frost days are projected to
decrease by between roughly 15% and 30%. This trend in decreasing frost
days in mid-winter progresses slightly in the longer term to a 17-35%
decrease in frost days depending on the climate model used.
For temperature projections related to extreme heat days, CSAG provided
projections for the number of hot days above 32°C, and above 36°C as
monthly averages for the medium and longer term. Number of hot days in
th
the 95 percentile of the data (the hottest 5% of days) is also available in
the full methods Annex 3. In the historical records for the period 1980 to
2000, very few days above 32°C have been recorded and only a handful of
days above 36°C in mid-summer. These hot days have in the past occurred
exclusively in the summer months from October to March.
In the medium term, the average number of days above 32°C is likely to
double (Figure 6), and in the longer term (Figure 7) to increase by as much
as 1,000%. For example, where less than 1 day above 32°C has been
recorded in Matatiele in March historically, the models project that this
will increase to between 5 and 12 days above 32°C towards the end of the
century. The models also project that the occurrence of hot days over
32°C will extend into the autumn, winter, and spring months from April to
September, where this had not been recorded prior to 2000.
20
Table 5: Current and 50 year modelled seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation for Alfred Nzo District and its local municipalities (CSA 2015)
Area
Current Climate
Matatiele
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Csiro 50 years
Matatiele
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Mpi 50 years
Matatiele
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Miroc 50 years
Matatiele
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Average 50 year Matatiele
(Models)
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Average Change Matatiele
50 year
Umzimvubu
(Future - current) Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Spring Rain
Spring
Summer Rain
(mm)
Temperature
(mm)
(°C)
153.4
15.9
346.5
176.5
16.3
323.5
227.5
17.4
325.6
196.4
17.0
309.3
181.2
16.5
331.5
158.6
17.6
350.5
180.7
17.8
305.9
228.8
18.7
292.4
200.2
18.4
288.0
185.0
18.0
318.6
147.7
17.2
354.3
163.6
17.5
316.7
214.0
18.6
312.1
181.8
18.2
298.5
170.8
17.7
328.5
151.0
17.8
332.9
171.3
18.1
306.7
214.8
19.0
303.4
189.5
18.7
293.4
175.2
18.2
314.9
152.4
17.5
345.9
171.9
17.8
309.8
219.2
18.8
302.6
190.5
18.4
293.3
177.0
18.0
320.7
-1.0
1.6
-0.6
-4.7
1.5
-13.7
-8.3
1.3
-23.0
-6.0
1.4
-16.0
-4.2
1.5
-10.8
Summer
Temperature
(°C)
19.3
19.9
20.7
20.6
19.9
21.5
21.9
22.6
22.6
22.0
20.8
21.3
22.0
21.9
21.3
21.0
21.5
22.3
22.2
21.6
21.1
21.6
22.3
22.3
21.6
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
Autumn
Rain (mm)
138.4
148.7
169.1
156.5
150.1
149.6
153.6
182.5
162.0
159.5
141.9
152.0
167.8
157.7
152.2
134.1
142.4
167.9
151.6
145.9
141.8
149.3
172.7
157.1
152.5
3.4
0.6
3.7
0.6
2.4
Autumn
Winter
Winter
Temperature Rain (mm) Temperature
(°C)
(°C)
15.0
17.2
10.0
15.9
25.2
11.3
18.2
40.8
14.3
17.0
30.2
12.5
16.2
26.1
11.6
17.1
17.0
12.3
18.0
24.3
13.5
20.2
38.4
16.3
19.0
28.9
14.6
18.3
25.1
13.8
16.6
18.1
11.4
17.5
27.3
12.6
19.8
45.0
15.6
18.6
33.2
13.7
17.8
28.3
12.9
16.8
19.0
12.1
17.6
28.0
13.4
19.8
43.9
16.2
18.6
33.4
14.5
17.9
28.6
13.6
16.8
18.0
11.9
17.7
26.6
13.2
19.9
42.4
16.0
18.7
31.8
14.3
18.0
27.3
13.4
1.9
0.8
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.2
1.9
Annual Rain
Annual
(mm)
Temperature
(°C)
655.6
15.0
674.0
15.9
762.9
17.6
692.5
16.8
688.9
16.0
675.7
17.1
664.5
17.8
742.1
19.5
679.0
18.6
688.3
18.0
661.9
16.5
659.6
17.2
738.9
19.0
671.2
18.1
679.8
17.4
637.0
16.9
648.5
17.6
730.0
19.3
667.9
18.5
664.6
17.8
658.2
16.9
657.5
17.6
737.0
19.2
672.7
18.4
677.5
17.8
2.6
1.8
-16.4
1.7
-25.9
1.6
-19.8
1.7
-11.3
1.7
21
Table 6: Current and 100 year modelled seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation for ANDM and its local municipalities (CSA 2015)
Area
Current Climate
Matatiele
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Csiro 100 years
Matatiele
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Mpi 100 years
Matatiele
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Miroc 100 years Matatiele
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Average 100 years Matatiele
(Models)
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Average Change Matatiele
100 years
Umzimvubu
(Future - current) Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo
Spring Rain
Spring
Summer Rain
(mm)
Temperature
(mm)
(°C)
153.4
176.5
227.5
196.4
181.2
177.2
193.6
242.9
212.0
200.3
161.4
174.7
237.3
195.7
186.0
133.5
142.9
190.8
160.0
152.0
157.3
170.4
223.7
189.3
179.4
4.0
-6.1
-3.8
-7.2
-1.7
15.9
16.3
17.4
17.0
16.5
19.7
19.8
20.7
20.4
20.0
19.3
19.4
20.4
20.0
19.6
20.0
19.9
20.6
20.4
20.2
19.6
19.7
20.6
20.3
19.9
3.8
3.4
3.2
3.3
3.5
346.5
323.5
325.6
309.3
331.5
368.2
334.1
315.2
312.6
340.8
390.5
330.4
320.9
309.5
349.9
329.2
292.5
290.0
281.4
305.3
362.6
319.0
308.7
301.2
332.0
16.1
-4.5
-16.9
-8.1
0.5
Summer
Temperature
(°C)
Autumn
Rain (mm)
19.3
19.9
20.7
20.6
19.9
23.4
23.8
24.4
24.4
23.8
23.1
23.4
24.0
24.0
23.5
22.9
23.2
23.8
23.8
23.3
23.1
23.4
24.1
24.1
23.5
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.6
138.4
148.7
169.1
156.5
150.1
157.7
163.0
175.8
166.9
164.2
154.4
162.3
181.6
168.6
164.2
114.6
122.4
144.4
131.5
125.3
142.2
149.2
167.3
155.7
151.2
3.8
0.5
-1.8
-0.9
1.1
Autumn
Winter
Temperature Rain (mm)
(°C)
15.0
15.9
18.2
17.0
16.2
18.9
19.7
21.9
20.7
20.0
19.2
19.9
22.0
20.9
20.2
19.2
19.9
21.9
20.8
20.2
19.1
19.8
21.9
20.8
20.1
4.2
3.9
3.7
3.8
3.9
17.2
25.2
40.8
30.2
26.1
23.3
34.0
52.3
40.3
34.6
18.8
27.0
43.8
32.3
28.1
21.5
31.4
49.6
37.4
32.2
21.2
30.8
48.6
36.7
31.6
4.0
5.6
7.8
6.5
5.5
Winter
Temperature
(°C)
10.0
11.3
14.3
12.5
11.6
14.6
15.4
18.1
16.5
15.8
14.1
15.1
17.8
16.1
15.4
13.9
15.0
17.7
16.0
15.3
14.2
15.2
17.9
16.2
15.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.8
3.9
Annual Rain
Annual
(mm)
Temperature
(°C)
655.6
674.0
762.9
692.5
688.9
726.4
724.6
786.3
731.8
739.9
725.2
694.4
783.6
706.2
728.2
598.7
589.2
674.8
610.3
614.8
683.4
669.4
748.2
682.8
694.3
27.8
-4.5
-14.7
-9.7
5.4
15.0
15.9
17.6
16.8
16.0
19.1
19.7
21.3
20.5
19.9
18.9
19.4
21.0
20.2
19.7
19.0
19.5
21.0
20.3
19.7
19.0
19.5
21.1
20.3
19.8
4.0
3.7
3.5
3.6
3.7
22
Winter Temperature Increase ⁰C
Autumn Temperature Increase ⁰C
Projected Annual Average Temperature Increase for the ANDM in °C for autumn and winter, medium and long term time periods, CSIRO model
50 Years
100 years
Legend
Figure 2: Autumn and winter season average temperature projection maps for the ANDM, shown as increase in °C relative to current temperatures using the CSIRO model, clockwise from top
left. 1) Medium term projected autumn average temperatures, 2) long term projected autumn average temperatures, 3) medium term projected winter average temperatures, and 4) long term
projected winter average temperatures. Temperatures are projected to increase dramatically in the longer term in both autumn and winter, particularly in winter, and particularly inland.
23
Legend
Summer Rainfall % Change MIROC
Summer Rainfall % Change CSIRO
SUMMER (DJF) Rainfall % Change for the medium and long term, comparing and contrasting CSIRO and MIROC
50 Years
100 years
Figure 3: Summer season rainfall change projection maps for the ANDM, shown as a % change relative to current annual median rainfall using the CSIRO and MIROC models, clockwise from top
left. 1) Medium term projected rainfall change in summer, CSIRO, 2) long term projected rainfall change in summer, CSIRO, 3) medium term projected rainfall change in summer, MIROC, and 4)
long term projected rainfall change in summer, MIROC. Summer is projected to remain the main rainfall season, with the total annual amount of rain falling likely to stay similar to the present
and within the current range.
24
Current
Predictions for biome distribution given expected temperature and rainfall change CSIRO
50 Years
100 Years
Predicted stability of biomes in the ANDM given expected temperature and rainfall change impacts on current biomes CSIRO. Darker areas are more stable.
50 Years
100 years
Figure 4: Summarised results of the ANDM biome climate envelope models presented in the ANDM Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. The Grassland biome, currently the largest biome,
appears most sensitive to the expected impacts of climate change in terms of temperature and rainfall, and is likely to retreat in favour of an advancing Savanna biome. The Savanna biome is
currently less agriculturally productive than the Grassland biome and this model introduces an element of instability and risk to large areas of the ANDM.
25
Figure 5: The number of frost days in the Matatiele area are likely to decrease as a result of rising temperatures in the ANDM in the medium
th
th
term. The top chart shows the range of values for decreasing frost days by month across 11 climate models. Blue bars show the 10 to 90
percentile changes, excluding extremes in the models. The grey bars in the bottom chart show the average number of frost days recorded in the
ANDM between 1980 and 2000 and the agreement between all 11 models that these are likely to decrease in number in the future.
Figure 6: The above chart shows clear agreement in the models that both the number and extent of hot days above 32°C in Matatiele are likely
to increase in the medium term.
26
Figure 7: The above chart shows clear agreement in the models that both the number and extent of hot days above 32°C in Matatiele are likely
to increase substantially in the longer term.
Figure 8: The above chart shows that most of the 11 climate models used predict that previously uncommon hot days above 36°C will increase in
number in the medium term.
Figure 9: The above chart shows strong agreement between the models that the number of hot days above 36°C, previously uncommon in the
Matatiele area, are likely to increase in number throughout the year in the longer term.
27
Section 3: A Climate Change Risk
Assessment for the ANDM
3.1 Introduction
3 of the top 5 disaster risks identified in the ANDM Disaster Management
Plan (DMP) (ANDM 2014) have direct linkages to climate impacts. These
risks are veld fires; extreme weather, including storms, hail, and high
winds; and human diseases. Although not highly rated in 2014, flooding
was the top risk named in the 2011 disaster risk assessment. The DMP
(ANDM 2014) also identifies soil erosion as a serious risk in the ANDM.
Each of these risks have direct significance for human health (Table 19, 20,
21, and 22), wellbeing, and productivity. Sea level rise (Figure 10, Table
15) is another risk which we have considered here. Impacts on these have
consequences for people, infrastructure, settlements, and tourism. The
main threats to tourism are mining and the poor management of
ecological infrastructure, which impact aesthetics, and land claims, service
delivery, and infrastructure, which impact accessibility.
Changes in temperature (Table 7) and rainfall (Table 8) are likely to have
direct impacts people living in the ANDM and on the ability of the District
and its local municipalities to deliver sustainable basic infrastructure and
services to all. The predicted increases in temperature impact directly on
human comfort, health, and mortality, as well as agricultural productivity,
and energy and water demand. While total annual average rainfall will be
similar in future, changes in inter-annual rainfall patterns and an increase
in heavy rainfall events, could damage infrastructure, property, and
agricultural assets, and lead to water quality concerns, if poorly managed.
These climate change impacts on the water cycle (Figure 10, Table 9) may
not impact on bulk water supply and water availability as long as waterrelated ecological infrastructure and formal bulk water supply
infrastructure are well planned and sustainably maintained. Rising
temperatures alongside poor management may result in increased water
scarcity. If land degradation and transformation in combination with poor
planning proceeds, the District may be at great risk of damage from
flooding and soil erosion.
Flooding (Figure 11, Table 10) and soil erosion (Figure 12, Table 11) are
important issues for the District because 99 567 out of 169 258 (59%) of
households are to some degree dependent on agriculture (Census 2011,
StatsSa). Flood or erosion related damage to crop field or rangelands could
have a significant impact on local agricultural livelihoods. Further, both
can place infrastructure such as roads and pipelines at risk, and can result
in rapid sedimentation of water supply dams.
Healthy, well-functioning ecosystems underpin social systems, particularly
in rural areas such as the ANDM where livelihoods are largely agricultural
and poverty and direct dependence on the environment for fuel, water,
and other materials is widespread. Climate change is likely to also impact
on ecosystems. The region’s major biomes may shift in response to climate
stimuli (Figure 4, Table 12), which may in turn affect ecological
infrastructure (Table 13), habitats (Figure 13, Table 14), and species
(Figure 14, Table 15). Specific biomes, e.g. the grasslands, are linked to
distinct social-ecological systems. Each has characteristic human
livelihoods, distinctive economic activities, and specific types of
ecosystems. Beyond biodiversity and ecosystem services, such structural
disruption will have consequences for agriculture (Table 16, Table 18).
Agriculture is not directly the mandate of local government. It is a
provincial government responsibility. However, agriculture is the largest
land use in the ANDM and more than half of all households are involved in
agricultural activities to some degree. Local economic development
activities often focus on agriculture and many of the local municipalities
have agricultural development plans in place (see Table 4). The local
government mandates to ensure health, food security and poverty
alleviation for people living in the ANDM means that local government
officials often have to consider agricultural productivity and support
infrastructure in their plans.
Climate already naturally defines and limits agricultural activities. As most
crop agriculture on household and commercial scales in the ANDM is not
28
irrigated, there is potential for significant disruption of agricultural
activities and food security in the district. Extensive livestock farming also
takes place and there is a chance that increasing temperatures could
reduce livestock productivity.
Cross cutting impacts specific to human settlements in rural areas include
reduced productivity and food security of subsistence farmlands as a result
of rising temperatures, unreliable rainfall, water scarcity and bush
encroachment; reduced productivity of rangelands as a result of drought,
bush encroachment, malnutrition, and disease; increased vulnerability to
water shortages because of increased evaporation, changes in rainfall,
damage to infrastructure from floods and storm surges, and reduction in
groundwater recharge; reduced availability of natural resources on which
many rural communities depend because of diminished biodiversity in
already degraded ecosystems; damage to dwellings from extreme storm
events, including fire; and physical isolation of rural communities as a
result flooding and erosion of rural roads. These impacts are presented in
more detail in the tables and figures which follow.
3.2 Method
Typically, either 4 quantiles or four natural breaks in the data sets were
used to divide the data into the risk categories used for the analysis
presented in the tables that follow. Risks are assessed for the medium and
long term futures where relevant and rated as Low, Moderate, High, or
Very High risks. For all risks other than temperature and rainfall, current
levels of risk were also assessed for comparison.
Spatial and temporal elements were also included. Each assessment
considered risk in relation to other areas. Risk categories were allocated at
the local municipality scale, and also mapped where this was appropriate.
As mentioned, for most of the risks assessed, a current level of risk was
identified. Future risk was evaluated in relation to how different it would
be from the current level of risk. Large changes in the short term were
seen as more risky than the same magnitude of change over a longer
period as, in the latter case, the system would have more time to adjust. If
future risk is decreased with climate change, the risk category does not
drop by more than one level.
In some case, as for the temperatures risks, the same scale could not be
used for medium and long term changes. This was because the largest
short term increases in temperature would be fairly small as compared to
long term increases. However, the same logic was applied in terms of
assessing the relative magnitude of the change compared with the national
average for the same time period.
In some cases, where available data was limited, we were forced to use a
less quantitative approach than that described above. Although we
attempted to have consistency between categories across all of the
different evaluations, it should be noted that the evaluations are within a
category and indicate values relative to other areas in the ANDM or
nationally, rather than representing absolute values.
The 4 risk levels applied in the risk assessment presented here can be
broadly described as follows:
Low Risk
Current or predicted risk is at the bottom end of the risk spectrum
compared to other areas, either nationally or within the ANDM depending
on the particular assessment. When this category was assigned to a future
predicted risk, it was typically used to describe scenarios where current
moderate risk levels were predicted to decrease as a result of climate
change.
Moderate Risk
Current or predicted risk is at an intermediate level, falling in the third
quartile of the risk spectrum compared to other areas, either nationally or
within the ANDM depending on the particular assessment.
29
High Risk
Current or predicted risk is at a relatively high level, falling in the second
quartile of the risk spectrum compared to other areas, either nationally or
within the ANDM depending on the particular assessment.
Very High Risk
Current or predicted risk is at an extremely high level, falling in the top
quartile of the risk spectrum compared to other areas, either nationally or
within the ANDM depending on the particular assessment. When this
category was assigned to a future predicted risk, it was typically used to
describe scenarios where predicted future situations are well outside the
range of values experienced for the particular assessment in the District,
Province or, sometimes, the country currently.
In the tables below, for each risk element described, the consequences and
relevance for people living in the ANDM related to the climatic change are
highlighted at the top. Risks are listed in normal font, and opportunities
are highlighted using italics. Then the risk class for current, medium, and
long term per local municipality and for the ANDM as a whole are given,
alongside a description of how risk for that particular element was
determined.
30
3.3 Temperature
Table 7: Summary of direct temperature related risks. Opportunities are italicised.
Relevance for people














Climate change risks related to temperature increases in the ANDM
Stimulate more frequent veld fire
Increase energy demand for cooling
Increase risk of heat related mortality, especially for vulnerable groups such as the elderly
Reduce quality of life for people without appropriate housing
Reduce productivity of livestock
Reduce productivity of agricultural workers and others working outdoors
Promote invasion of woody alien vegetation as number of frost days decreases
Increase water stress (for growing crops and for water) as evapotranspiration increases
Increased magnitude and intensity of storm events, also as result of increased evaporation
Desiccate exposed soils
Increase water demand
Stimulate a longer tourism season; winters may be more moderate in the interior
Some crops will be more resilient under hotter temperatures such as Sorghum
Devise new work hours for labourers to accommodate extreme weather
Municipality
Long Term
High
Very High
High
High High
Umzimvubu
High
Ntabankulu
Moder High High
ate
Mbizana
High
Matatiele
Medium
Term
Alfred Nzo District (Overall)
Risk description and basis for assessment
Risk for the medium (2040-2059) and longer (2081 – 2100) term was assigned based on the relative
magnitude and rate of temperature change in the ANDM. The risk categories were based on the natural
breaks in the national average temperature projections data. ANDM projected temperature changes were
then evaluated by comparing the local projected temperature changes with the national projections.
In the medium term, an increase of up to 1.6°C was categorised as Moderate, while 1.7-2.0°C was
categorised as a High risk increase. Anything higher than that was categorised as a Very High risk increase.
As longer time periods give more time to adapt, we used a different set of criteria for the longer term.
Here, a change of less than 3.5° was categorised as Moderate change, 3.5-4° as High risk, and anything
higher than 4° as a Very High risk increase.
No current risk was assigned as current temperatures are the status quo, not presenting any specific risk.
The ANDM is currently quite temperate, and while temperature increases could affect number of frost
days, even large increases will still leave average annual temperatures in the District fairly moderate.
31
3.4 Rainfall
Table 8: Summary of direct rainfall change related risk. Opportunities are italicised.
Relevance for people






Long Term
Moderate
Matatiele
Moderate
Alfred Nzo District (Overall)
Medium Term
Municipality
Climate change risks related to rainfall change in the ANDM
Possible increase in extreme events related to high volume rainfall
Possible unpredictability in timing of rainfall, important for planning and planting crops
Increase in water demand tied to temperature increases and broader water access
Potential increase in difficulty of capturing water for storage – runoff from high rainfall events can be difficult to
store
Potential increase in water available for storage from storm events
Unlikely that the total amount of water available will change much – opportunities for sound management of water
supply infrastructure and for water demand management and water efficiency to ensure that water services reach
as many people as possible
Risk description and basis for assessment
Predicted rainfall change for the District in both the medium and longer term is largely within the range of
current natural levels of variability. The ANDM appears to be one of the “better off” places in South Africa
in terms of rainfall change. Aggregated changes are often in the single digits. This is a very small change
given that the District receives almost 700mm of rainfall per year on average at the moment. We have
therefore classified the direct rainfall change related risk as Moderate in both the short and long term.
Ntabankulu
Overall precipitation shows little change in either seasonal pattern or total quantity. There may be
important changes in the variability of rainfall between years, and increases in short term variability are
also likely. If similar patterns occur in the ANDM to the rest of the eastern portions of the country, it is
likely that the number and intensity of major rainfall events is increased (CSA, 2015).
Umzimvubu
These risks, related to extreme rainfall events, are examined in more detail in the summary tables related
to water processes and health.
Mbizana
No current risk was assigned as current rainfall is the status quo, not presenting any specific risk.
32
3.5 Water supply and Infrastructure
Table 9: Summary of climate related surface water runoff risks. Opportunities are italicised
Relevance for people





Moderate
Umzimvubu
Long Term
Ntabankulu
Moderate
Mbizana
Medium Term
Matatiele
Moderate
Alfred Nzo District
Current
Municipality
Climate change risks related to changes in surface water runoff in the ANDM
Negative impacts on water related ecological infrastructure through, for example the expansion of alien vegetation such as
wattles, increases in forestry plantations, urban expansion into wetlands, or unsustainable stocking rates in catchments,
could rapidly increases risks associated with runoff – flooding, soil moisture and ground water loss, evaporation, and erosion
Where water supply systems are not robust and consist of stand-alone systems with less integrated and limited alternative
water supply options, as in most of the ANDM, significant risk could exist due to local short term variability in water
availability during dry periods (DEA, 2015)
High runoff years come with a range of potential impacts, including flooding, soil erosion, and infrastructure damage. These
related impacts are dealt with in separate sections.
Water availability for household, agricultural, and industrial use is unlikely to change much in total volumes, a big plus
Conservation, restoration and maintenance of water related ecological infrastructure, such as groundwater resources, rivers
and streams, and wetlands, will ensure adequate water supply in the future and protect built infrastructure from damages
Risk description and basis for assessment
Medium term trends in surface water catchment runoff show that the median impact of
unconstrained climate change is an increase in annual catchment runoff of 5-15%, mostly due to
increased rates of runoff due to more intense rainfall events (DEA 2015).
As average runoff is likely to be maintained, or even potentially slightly increased, overall surface
water catchment runoff risk has been classed as Moderate.
This means that the overall risk to bulk water supply and the availability of sufficient clean water in
the future is manageable. Broad-scale and extended disruption to water supplies appears to be
unlikely from a climate change perspective (DEA, 2015).
However, the studies suggest that runoff will vary significantly. Most noticeably, maximum values
indicate a potential doubling of annual runoff events in high runoff years (Figure 11), which may
lead to flooding. This comes with a range of potential impacts, including flooding, erosion, and
infrastructure damage, which are dealt with separate sections.
In summary, compared to much of SA which has a runoff disaster, ANDM has a spectacular
underutilised resource which is unlikely to be impacted and may even improve. Extreme events
may, however, be an issue.
33
Table 10: Summary of flooding related risk. Opportunities are italicised
Relevance for people









Medium
Term
Long
Term
High
High
High
Very
High
Very
High
Mbizana
High
Moder
ate
Moder
ate
Moderate
Moderate
Ntabankulu
High
High
Moderate
Umzimvubu
District
Moderate
Moderate
Matatiele
Alfred
Nzo
(Overall)
Current
Municipality
Climate change risks related to changes in surface water runoff in the ANDM
Flooding of houses
Damage to assets and infrastructure and loss of life
Damage to access roads – disrupted transport routes and isolation of rural communities if roads are washed away
Soil erosion and siltation of water supply dams and water courses
Pollution of water with solid waste and sewerage
Spread of waterborne communication diseases
Houses that are poorly built, are poorly located, or lack flood protection, efficient drainage systems or damp-proofing are
particularly vulnerable. Also, informal housing (shacks) and traditional building, widespread in ANDM.
Opportunity to harvest high volumes of water for storage
Opportunity to gradually reduce this risk over time in a low cost way through careful planning and avoiding high risk areas
Risk description and basis for assessment
Current flood risk to buildings and infrastructure was evaluated on the basis of the percentage of dwellings that
are located either within 250m of a larger river (Figure 11) or within 100m of a major wetland. Risk categories
used were Low Risk = under 1%, Moderate Risk > 1-2%, High Risk > 2-5%, and Very High Risk > 5%.
Data for long term change in flood risk was derived from the ratio of change from the base scenario in the 1 in
10 year flood peak estimated by James Cullis (DEA, 2015). Using the average change in flood peak across 3
models for each quaternary catchment, we identified high risk areas.
We then assessed each house in the high risk areas and evaluated their future flood risk status according to the
following categories: Low risk = flood peak predicted to reduce or stay the same, Moderate risk = flood peak
increasing by <0 - 10%, High risk = flood peak increasing by <10 - 25%, Very High risk = flood peak increasing by
>25%. This was used to assess whether flood risk to dwellings was increasing or decreasing.
If a strong majority of dwellings were in a specific category that was used then that risk category was assigned
to the municipality for the medium and long term future. For example, in Matatiele almost all at risk houses are
in a Very High risk category, whereas in Mbizana almost all at risk houses were in a Low Risk category in future.
Following the one category down only rule, Mbizana’s future flood risk is described as Moderate.
Where there was an equal balance between houses at increased risk and houses with reduced risk (Ntabankulu
– Moderate risk), then the current flood risk status was retained.
The same value was used for medium and long term change as flood models were only completed for the long
term time period, and we have not modelled where people will live in the future.
34
Table 11: Summary of climate change related soil erosion risks. Opportunities are italicised.








Relevance for people
Medium
Term
Long
Term
High
Very High
Moderate
Alfred Nzo District (Overall)
Current
Municipality
Climate change risks related to changes in surface water runoff in the ANDM
Siltation of water supply dams
Damage to access roads and pipelines
Loss of topsoil for growing crops; damage to crop fields
Instability of soil surface for construction
Damage to assets
Reduced livestock carrying capacity
Isolation of rural communities if roads are eroded away
Lots of opportunities for labour intensive land care projects that can reduce erosion and improve socio economic
development and offer an opportunity to tap into national funds
High
Very High
Very
High
Very
High
Very High
High
Umzimvubu
Moder
ate
High
Low
Ntabankulu
High
Moderate
Mbizana
Moderate
Matatiele
Risk description and basis for assessment
Soil erosion is a core climate change issue for the District. It poses a major threat to agricultural
activities, which are important for 59% of the households in the District. Soil erosion reduces the
livestock carrying capacity of rangelands and damages crop fields. Furthermore, soil erosion can place
infrastructure, such as roads and pipelines, at risk and can result in the rapid sedimentation of water
supply dams (Le Roux et 2008).
Importantly, the climate change impacts associated with intensification of storm events (Table 8),
desiccation of soils (Table 7), and the structural change from grasslands to savanna predicted for much
of the District (Table 12), as well as secondary impacts associated with agricultural systems being under
pressure, all suggest that soil erosion impacts are likely to both be significantly underestimated in the
ANDM and are likely to increase significantly as with changing climate.
The Eastern Cape has several hotspot zones for sediment and soil erosion which have the potential to be
further exacerbated by climatic changes (DEA, 2015).
Current risk was assessed by identifying the portion of each municipality in high risk areas for gully
formation (Marakanye and Le Roux 2012) – within 250m of an existing gully (Figure 12). Risk categories
were assessed based on natural breaks in the data. Based on the anticipated increasing intensity of
rainfall (Figure 10) and widespread structural impacts on grassland areas (Figure 4), we have assumed a
gradual increase in soil erosion risk by one category above current risk in the shorter term and an
additional category above current risk in the longer term.
35
Figure 10: The graph evaluates the average runoff for the period 2040-2050 compared to
the baseline, at 0. The catchments relevant for the ANDM are located around T4 on the
graph (red line). Note that the median projected runoff values (blue line) are only a little
higher than the baseline (0.00), but the maximum values are up to double current runoff
levels. Data from DEA 2015.
Figure 12: Areas at high risk of soil erosion in the ANDM.
Figure 11: An analysis of the percentage of buildings within river buffers (250m on large
rivers, 100m on smaller perennial rivers, and 32m on all rivers). Red indicates that between
13 and 37% of all buildings are within a river buffer flood risk. Buildings data from Eskom.
36
3.6 Biodiversity
Table 12: Biome stability and associated risks. Opportunities are italicised.
Relevance for people






Long
Term
Very High
Low
Very
High
Matatiele
Moderate
Alfred Nzo District (Overall)
Medium
Term
Municipality
Climate change risks related to changes in biome stability in the ANDM
Biome shifts are unlikely to be neat, and will include the expansion of invasive alien and indigenous woody species
into grasslands
Disruptive system changes such as animal or plant population declines and extinctions
Structural disruption of the grassland biome particularly
Changes in rangeland productivity through changes in animal diets, biomass produced, and nutrient availability
Potential for improved availability of wood as a fuel source
Implementation of sustainable agriculture and restoration and management of grassland ecosystems will create jobs
and secure ecosystem services
Mbizana
High
High
Ntabankulu
High
Very
High
Umzimvubu
Risk description and basis for assessment
We examined biome stability projections for the medium (2040-2059) and longer term (2081-2100) for the
ANDM.
Risk for the medium (2040 -2059) and longer (2081-2100) term for biome stability was assigned based on
the likelihood that an area will retain its current biome (Figure 4). A score was given for each site based on
the number of models which predicted that the current biome would be stable. These scores were
averaged across each municipality and the district. Values were then categorised separately for the
medium and longer term based on natural breaks in the distribution of values.
Moderate
Very High
Clear spatial and temporal patterns emerge. Matatiele experiences very little biome level change in the
medium term (Moderate risk), but in the longer term most grassland areas are likely to change (Very High
risk). In contrast, although Mbizana experiences high levels of medium term impact as its grasslands are
the first to be invaded by savanna (High risk), in the longer term it retains much of its coastal belt biome
and the associated Pondoland centre of Endemism. Hence it does not experience significant additional
structural biome change impacts, or additional associated risk, retaining the High risk classification in the
long term.
No current risk was assigned as current temperatures are the status quo, not presenting any specific risk.
37
Table 13: Climate change related ecological infrastructure risks. Opportunities are italicised.
Relevance for people



Long Term
Medium Term
Very High
Very High
Moderate
Very High
Very
High
Very
High
Very
High
High
Very High
Umzimvubu
Moderate
Very
High
Ntabankulu
High
Moderate
Mbizana
Very
High
Matatiele
High
Alfred Nzo District
(Overall)
Current
Municipality
Climate change risks related to impacts on ecological infrastructure in the ANDM
Exacerbate and risks related to runoff, flooding, and soil erosion – see relevant tables
Conservation, restoration and maintenance of water related ecological infrastructure, such as groundwater resources, rivers
and streams, and wetlands, secures water flows and improves water quality for clean water
Conservation, restoration and maintenance of water related ecological infrastructure, such as groundwater resources, rivers
and streams, and wetlands, acts as a buffer, reducing soil erosion and flood damage
Risk description and basis for assessment
Ecological Infrastructure refers to the functioning ecosystems that deliver valuable ecosystem
services to people. It includes wetlands, river buffers and key catchment areas.
Current risk is based on an assessment of portions of important and additional Ecological
Infrastructure that are currently either degraded or have been completely lost. Risk was classified as
Low if under 20 has been lost, Moderate if 20 – 40% has been lost, High if 40-60% has been lost and
Very High if over 60% had been lost.
Changes to risk in the medium and long term values were based on the risk of biome change. Where
the biome stability risk was assessed as Low (Table 12), the risk to ecological infrastructure was kept
the same. Where the biome stability risk was Moderate, the risk to ecological infrastructure was
increased by one category. Where the biome stability risk was High, by two categories, and where it
was Very High, by up to three categories.
A ‘high water mark’ approach was used, with risk values not dropping below the values for the
previous period. With appropriate management of existing intact Ecological Infrastructure and
rehabilitation of degraded and transformed Ecological Infrastructure, it is possible that this risk can
be significantly reduced.
38
Table 14: Climate change related habitat loss risks. Opportunities are italicised.
Relevance for people







Medium
Term
Long Term
High
Very
High
Low
Very
High
Very
High
Very
High
High
Mbizana
Low
Matatiele
Moder
ate
Alfred Nzo District
(Overall)
Current
Municipality
Climate change risks related to habitat loss in the ANDM
Exacerbate risks related to runoff, flooding, and soil erosion – see relevant tables
Loss of ecosystem services and particularly grassland habitats, which may impact livestock-based livelihoods
Loss of specialised tourism opportunities
Potential loss or gain of natural resources for energy or building materials
Conservation, restoration and maintenance of water related ecological infrastructure, such as groundwater resources, rivers and streams,
and wetlands, secures water flows and improves water quality for clean water
Conservation, restoration and maintenance of water related ecological infrastructure, such as groundwater resources, rivers and streams,
and wetlands, acts as a buffer, reducing soil erosion and flood damage
Opportunities for protection of important habitats for conservation and tourism
Risk description and basis for assessment
Climate related potential habitat loss and associated risks were assessed based on the current status of threatened
systems and impacted areas per municipality and the risk of structural change at a biome level (Figure 15). Current risk is
based on an equal weighted assessment of portions of heavily impacted landscapes and the ecosystem threat status of
habitats.
Ecosystem threat status was calculated on the basis of an integrated habitat map (terrestrial, wetland, river, estuary) that
reflected the most threatened habitat type at a site. Threat values were allocated as Critically Endangered=10,
Endangered=8, Vulnerable =4, and Least Threatened=0 (data from NFEPA). Average scores per municipality were
calculated.
Landscape impacts were calculated based on the % of land that was heavily impacted based on a composite landcover
layer developed for the strategy including 2009 national landcover (SANBI 2009) as well as information on gullies
(Marakanye and Le Roux 2012) and dams (Nel et al 2011). The combined scores were then split into categories using a
quantile approach.
Ntabankulu
Modera
te
High
Very
High
Medium and long term risk was assigned using the biome change data. If there was risk of short term biome change, then
the current risk was increased by a category. The same approach was taken for long term risk, except that a high water
mark approach was taken (i.e. risk was not seen to drop at a habitat level after attaining a higher risk status in a previous
time period).
Umzimvubu
Low
Moderate
Very High
Habitat loss represents the best overall summary of impacts linked to ecosystems, the species they contain, and their
ability to deliver ecosystem services. This issue is particularly important in the ANDM which contains the critical Pondoland
Centre of Endemism and key grassland and wetland habitat types.
39
Table 15: Climate change related species loss risks. Opportunities are italicised.
Relevance for people
Long Term
High
Very High
Very High
Medium and long term values were adjusted based on the risk of biome change. Where the biome stability risk was
assessed as Low (Table 12), the risk to species loss was kept the same. Where the biome stability risk was Moderate,
the risk to species loss was increased by one category. Where the biome stability risk was High, by two categories,
and where it was Very High, by up to three categories.
Very High
A high water mark approach was used, with risk values not dropping below the values for the previous period.
Low
Medium Term
Current risk is based on an assessment of the current number of threatened species. Risk was classified as Low if no
threatened species were found, Moderate if 1 – 15 species, High if 16-30 species and Very High if over 30 threatened
species were found. Risk for the District was assessed based on an average value across the local municipalities.
Very High
Very High
Ntabankulu
Low
Moderate
Very High
Umzimvubu
Low
Moderate
Very High
Mbizana
Low
Matatiele
District
Moderate
Alfred Nzo
(Overall)
Climate change risks related to climate related species losses in the ANDM
Loss of diversity, a critical contributor to system resilience
Loss of threatened species in Mbizana, which may impact tourism
Loss of grassland species, which may impact livestock-based livelihoods
Loss of heritage
Current
Municipality




Risk description and basis for assessment
Climate related potential species loss and associated risks were assessed based on the current number of threatened
species (Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable) per municipality and the risk of structural change at a
biome level (Figure 14).
Data from South African National Biodiversity Institute herbaria and atlasing projects, University of Cape Town Bolus
Herbarium, and Albany Museum Schonland herbarium.
40
3.7 Agriculture
Table 16: Climate change related agriculture risks. Opportunities are italicised.
Climate change risks related to impacts on agriculture in the ANDM
Relevance for people
Long Term
Medium Term
Risk description and basis for assessment
Current levels of risk are based on the proportions of households currently dependent on agriculture in each local
municipality, which are larger than 50% in all local municipalities.
Very
High
High
The overall picture for maize production is that median yield and overall suitability of the area for maize production
is unlikely to change much in the future (Table 18).
Very
High
High
Very
High
High
High
Very
High
Very
High
Risk is seen as High in the medium term and Very High in the longer term in all areas with a long term biome shift. In
addition, in any area where the maize yield is reduced in the medium and longer term, risk is assumed to increase.
Umzimvubu
High
High
Ntabankulu
Increasing temperatures across the District are likely to reduce feed intake and thus the productivity of all forms of
livestock. For each 1°C above 30, most livestock reduce their feed intake by as much as 5%. Both milk yields and
conception rates are likely to be affected by heat stress. Impacts on rangeland productivity (Table 11 and 12) may also
reduce the quality and quantity of forage available for livestock.
Moder
ate
Mbizana
High
Some spatial shifts in optimal growing regions are likely by mid-century for field crops such as maize, sorghum,
soybeans and sugarcane, pasture and natural rangeland grasses such as Eragrostis curvula and Kikuyu (Pennisetum
clandestinum), and major commercial forestry trees such as eucalyptus, pine, and acacia species (DEA, 2013).
Mode
rate
Matatiele
District
Mode
rate
Alfred Nzo
(Overall)
Subsistence agricultural systems may have limited ability to cope with climatic change and variability
Reduced productivity of livestock
Increased demand for irrigation
Stimulated livestock and crop pests and diseases
Increasing demand for water for livestock and crops may lead to an increased cost of supplying water
Dairy yields could decrease by up to 25%
Maize stover availability per head of cattle may decrease due to water scarcity
Job creation for development of new crops and preserving indigenous seed
Increased opportunities for growing certain crops in new areas, such as sorghum
New or different crops may need to be considered, especially drought tolerant crops that can deal with variable rainfall
Opportunities for no-till agriculture which can be more productive and have lower climate risk
Current
Municipality











41
3.8 Sea level rise and Storm Surge
Table 17: Climate change related risks for storm surge and sea level rise. Opportunities are italicised.
Climate change risks related to sea level rise in the ANDM
Relevance for people
Increased risk of deaths and injuries by drowning in floods
Loss of property and livelihoods
Withdrawal of risk coverage in vulnerable areas by private insurers
Inundation of coastal land, wetlands, and estuaries
Permanent erosion of land
High costs of coastal protection
High costs of land-use relocation and damage to natural infrastructure
Potential requirement for the relocation of populations and infrastructure
Opportunity for sound planning in all coastal developments so that sensitive areas are avoided
Protection of coastal ecosystems could have tourism benefits
Long Term
Medium Term
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Mbizana
Current
Municipality










Risk description and basis for assessment
Mbizana is the only coastal municipality in the District. As a result it is the only one considered here. Risks from sea
level rise and storm surge are minimal.
Areas below 5.5 m of elevation, which is the upper bound of land potentially impacted by sea level rise, tidal
fluctuations and increased storm surges by the end of the century, are at risk from sea level rise and storm surges.
2
Risk is currently classified as Low, as only 5.78km of coastline, which represents 0.24% of Mbizana, and an even
smaller proportion of buildings, are situated below the 5.5m elevation level (Figure 15). In addition, the coastal zone,
including the critical dune cordon, is currently largely intact.
However, other drivers of change in the region, such as mining the dune cordon or increasing development in the
coastal zone, could place the ANDM at greater risk from storm surge and sea level rise.
The medium and longer term risks have been classified as Moderate, as they are higher than currently experienced.
Note though that risks in Mbizana are lower than most other coastal areas in the country. The risks are manageable
through appropriate preparation and adaptation responses.
42
there, yellow means 1 or more vulnerable species, and green means no threatened species
occur. The change in risk due to climate change is indicated by = (no change), + (long term
increase in risk), and ++ (medium term increase in risk).
Table 18: Predicted changes in maize production by 2055 for the ANDM based on median
results. The data are calculated from Estes et al (2013).
Municipality
Matatiele
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Umzimvubu
Alfred Nzo District
Current
Yield
(kg/ha)
3084.3
3552.0
2730.5
3005.2
3124.6
Future
Yield
(kg/ha)
2859.3
3633.4
2728.7
2941.5
3036.0
Percentage
Change
-1.9
2.5
0.8
-0.7
-0.3
Figure 13: Evaluation of climate change induced risks for habitat loss. The colours indicate
current habitat threat status and habitat loss, from Low to High, at the ward scale. The
change in risk due to climate change is indicated by = (no change), + (long term increase in
risk), and ++ (medium term increase in risk).
Figure 14: Evaluation of climate change induced risks for species loss. The colours indicate
current extent of threatened species – red means 1 or more endangered species occur
43
Figure 15: Map showing coastal areas of Alfred Nzo District under 5m above sea level
(orange). The map also indicates buildings from the Eskom buildings database (blue dots).
The map illustrates how very few building are currently located in areas at risk from
climate change related sea level rise.
44
3.9 Human Health
Table 19: Climate change related human health risks. Opportunities are italicised.
Relevance for
people










Access to adequate
sanitation
Dwellings that can
withstand extreme
events
Access to safe and
energy
healthy
sources
for cooking
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Mod
erate
High
Very
High
Very
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Umzimvubu
Very
High
Ntabankulu
Mod
erate
Mbizana
High
Alfred
Nzo
District
(Overall)
Matatiele
Access to reliable
supplies of clean
drinking water
Municipality
Climate change risks related to human health in the ANDM
Spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria into new areas
Spread of communicable water-borne diarrheal diseases such as cholera
Increase in non-communicable diseases such as respiratory infections
Direct impacts to persons and property from extreme weather, storms hail and high winds, floods, drought, fire, extreme heat, and air pollution.
Deleterious effects on mental health
Deleterious effects on occupational health for people who work outdoors
Exacerbate existing food insecurity, hunger, and malnutrition
Opportunity to develop new integrated health system and more mobile clinics to support communities
Opportunities to significantly improve the quality of health care for ANDM residents
Opportunity to leverage special climate change funds to safe and healthy energy sources.
Risk description and basis for assessment
Socio-economic vulnerability is affected by access to reliable supplies of clean drinking water, sufficient
sanitation, dwellings that are safe in extreme weather, and safe and healthy energy sources for cooking.
As future changes in these things depend on ANDM service delivery and development decisions more than
climatic changes, only the current risk status is assessed here. Compared to national, the ANDM is in a state of
emergency regards service delivery. Relative to the national data, all metrics for all municipalities are in the
worst quartile. Most of them are in the worst 5 or 10%. The whole table should read Very High risk. However,
here we have used natural breaks in the data to highlight which local municipalities in the ANDM are worst off
relative to each other.
Access to clean drinking water: the proportion of households at the local municipality scale sourcing water
directly from the environment or dependent on delivery (Table 20).
Access to sanitation: the proportion of households at the local municipality scale using a pit toilet without
ventilation, a bucket toilet or no toilet (Table 21).
Adequate dwellings: the proportion of households at the local municipality scale living in traditional and
informal dwellings as more vulnerable.
Access to safe and healthy energy: the proportion of households at the local municipality scale using paraffin
stoves and coal or wood fires for cooking (Table 22).
45
Table 20: Water supply and its links to health risks.
Robust
Supply
Water
Water Supply
Robust
Potentially
Major Water Supply Climate Change Risk
Total
Borehole
Rain
water
tank
Subtotal
Spring
Dam
/pool
/
stagnant
water
River/
stream
Water
tanker
or
vendor
Other
Subtotal
Matatiele
Regional/local
water
scheme
(operated
by
municipality
or
other
water
services provider)
24115 (48.7%)
3798
(7.7%)
1295
(2.6%)
5093
(10.3%)
5441
(11%)
4154
(8.4%)
6383
(12.9%)
2353
(4.8%)
1986
(4%)
20317
(41%)
49527
Umzimvubu
14363 (30.6%)
3364
(7.2%)
2381
(5.1%)
5745
(12.3%)
5635
(12%)
2083
(4.4%)
15198
(32.4%)
2798
(6%)
1069
(2.3%)
26783
(57.1%)
46891
Mbizana
3401 (7%)
1103
(2.3%)
2236
(4.6%)
3339
(6.9%)
7662
(15.8%)
1355
(2.8%)
30345
(62.6%)
1514
(3.1%)
832
(1.7%)
41708
(86.1%)
48447
Ntabankulu
6036 (24.7%)
961
(3.9%)
446
(1.8%)
1407
(5.8%)
1980
(8.1%)
1063
(4.4%)
12889
(52.8%)
779
(3.2%)
242
(1%)
16953
(69.5%)
24397
Alfred
District
47915 (28.3%)
9226
(5.5%)
6358
(3.8%)
15584
(9.2%)
20719
(12.2%)
8656
(5.1%)
64815
(38.3%)
7444
(4.4%)
4129
(2.4%)
105763
(62.5%)
169261
Nzo
Table 21: Access to sufficient sanitation and its links to health risks
Sanitation unlikely to pose a
health risk
If well managed, sanitation may be
sufficient to avoid significant health
risks under warmer and wetter
conditions
Pit toilet Chemical Subtotal
with
toilet
ventilation
(VIP)
Major Sanitation Linked Climate Change Risk
Pit toilet
without
ventilation
Bucket
toilet
Other
None
Subtotal
Total
Flush toilet
(connected
to
sewerage
system)
Flush
toilet
(with
septic
tank)
Subtotal
Matatiele
5135
(10.4%)
744
(1.5%)
5879
(11.9%)
11834
(23.9%)
2348
(4.7%)
14182
(28.6%)
20064
(40.5%)
161
(0.3%)
3052
(6.2%)
6187
(12.5%)
29464
(59.5%)
49527
Umzimvubu
2476
(5.3%)
717
(1.5%)
3193
(6.8%)
12763
(27.2%)
3867
(8.2%)
16630
(35.5%)
19903
(42.4%)
156
(0.3%)
1874
(4%)
5133
(10.9%)
27066
(57.7%)
46891
Mbizana
557
(1.1%)
504
(1%)
1061
(2.2%)
16081
(33.2%)
1914
(4%)
17995
(37.1%)
20009
(41.3%)
366
(0.8%)
2159
(4.5%)
6855
(14.1%)
29389
(60.7%)
48447
Ntabankulu
545
(2.2%)
572
(2.3%)
1117
(4.6%)
7063
(29%)
1055
(4.3%)
8118
(33.3%)
7009
(28.7%)
156
(0.6%)
1547
(6.3%)
6449
(26.4%)
15161
(62.1%)
24397
Alfred Nzo
District
8713
(5.1%)
2538
(1.5%)
11251
(6.6%)
47743
(28.2%)
9184
(5.4%)
56927
(33.6%)
66986
(39.6%)
840
(0.5%)
8632
(5.1%)
24625
(14.5%)
101083
(59.7%)
169261
Table 22: Access to energy sources and links to health risks
Lower risk or lower local impact
Matatiele
Umzimvubu
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Alfred Nzo District
Potential health risk or local environmental impact
Total
None
or
other
Subtotal
Electricity
Gas
Solar
Subtotal
Paraffin
Wood
Coal
Animal
dung
15823
(31.9%)
3755
(7.6%)
87
(0.2%)
19665
(39.7%)
9963
(20.1%)
18493
(37.3%)
113
(0.2%)
1075
(2.2%)
218
(0.4%)
29862
(60.3%)
49527
13949
(29.7%)
4246
(9.1%)
55
(0.1%)
18250
(38.9%)
7954
(17%)
19660
(41.9%)
66
(0.1%)
762
(1.6%)
199
(0.4%)
28641
(61.1%)
46891
14980
(30.9%)
2465
(5.1%)
48
(0.1%)
17493
(36.1%)
2897
(6%)
27662
(57.1%)
109
(0.2%)
85
(0.2%)
202
(0.4%)
30955
(63.9%)
48447
3273
(13.4%)
1589
(6.5%)
12
(0%)
4874
(20%)
2496
(10.2%)
16050
(65.8%)
30
(0.1%)
784
(3.2%)
162
(0.7%)
19522
(80%)
24397
48024
(28.4%)
12054
(7.1%)
203
(0.1%)
60281
(35.6%)
23311
(13.8%)
81865
(48.4%)
318
(0.2%)
2705
(1.6%)
781
(0.5%)
108980
(64.4%)
169261
46
Section 4: Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Inventory and Mitigation Responses
4.1 Introduction
The rural nature of the Alfred Nzo District Municipality has important
implications for its energy use and consequent GHG emissions. Specifically
the municipality has a low GHG emissions profile and extreme energy
poverty with most citizens dependent on traditional energy sources such
as firewood. As the municipality looks to develop and provide electricity
and emissions related services such as transport and waste removal in the
future, GHG emissions, and the mitigation thereof, will need to be
considered. Firewood is a relatively low emissions fuel source. On the path
to low carbon development, the ANDM will ideally plan to move from
firewood to renewable energy, bypassing becoming dependent on coalpowered grid electricity. This chapter therefore outlines the current energy
uses of the ANDM, the emissions profile, and ways to mitigate emissions as
well as some key opportunities and risks for the future.
The principle driver of climate change is continued emissions of GHGs.
There are a wide range of GHGs, but six gases make up the ‘basket’ of
GHGs that are the focus of international legislation: carbon dioxide (CO 2),
methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6),
zerfluorocarbons (PFCs) and hydroflurocarbons (HFCs). Each GHG has a
different ‘warming effect’; that is to say that some gases absorb radiation
more efficiently than the same amount of another gas. The amount of
radiation a gas absorbs can be compared to the amount of radiation
absorbed by CO2, and this is known as the ‘global warming potential’
(GWP) of that gas. CO2 is the most prevalent GHG by mass in the
atmosphere and has a GWP of 1. Methane has a GWP of 25 which means
that 1kg of methane traps the same amount of radiation as 25kg of CO 2.
For simplicity, emissions of GHGs are often presented in units of CO 2
equivalents (CO2e), which takes in to account the wide range of GWPs of
gases. The GWP factor also means that compared to CO2, relatively small
amounts of gas emissions can have considerable contributions to total
CO2e emissions.
The Alfred Nzo District Municipality (ANDM) has made little- contribution
to the GHGs produced in the country because of its under developed
energy sector. It is estimated that South Africa emitted 511 Mega tonnes
CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2eq) in 2009 (Witi and Stevens 2013) while the
ANDM is estimated to have emitted 2,61 Mt CO2eq, at least of which 0,07
Mt CO2eq is captured and stored through the carbon sequestration
capacities of the forests and grasslands in the region, this implies that the
ANDM is responsible for emitting 2,5 Mt CO2eq in 2012, 0,44% of the
national GHG emissions. Despite the relatively small contribution to
emissions made by the District Municipality, the co-benefits associated
with reduced emissions offer opportunities for sustained green growth in
the municipality. For this reason the ANDM’s commitment to responding
to climate change along with the recognition of the devastating impacts
that climate change potentially brings to the rural community is important.
Through its IDP and other local developmental policies, the ANDM has
committed to contributing to national efforts that seek to protect the
environment. The District has explicitly committed itself to environmental
protection by putting in place policy instruments that support climate
change mitigation and adaptation.
4.2 Method
The ANDM GHG inventory was developed in accordance with the IPCC
guidelines published in 2006 for National GHG inventories. The data used
to develop the inventory is based on the 2012 data obtained from different
municipalities in the District in addition to interviews conducted with
municipal officials. Results from Census South Africa 2012, national and
provincial inventories and local municipal documents were also used to
support the data presented here. The Municipal Energy Regeneration
Strategy (ANDM 2013) forms a fundamental basis for this section.
The IPCC guidelines typically classify emissions into four categories:
 Energy: emissions from the combustion of fuel and fugitive fuel
emissions from energy activities including public electricity and
heat production, transport, commercial, agriculture, fishing and
more.
47



Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU): emissions within
this sector comprise by-product or fugitive emissions of GHGs
from industrial processes. Due to low industry levels in the ANDM,
this sector is combined with the energy sector.
Waste: emissions from waste management
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU): this sector
comprises anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, excluding
for fuel combustion (which falls under energy). Activities include
enteric fermentation, manure management, agricultural soils,
prescribed burning of savannas and field burning of agricultural
residues. This sector also includes emissions removed by forest
and land use change activities including changes in forest and
other woody biomass stocks, forest and grassland conversion, and
emissions from and removals by soil.
In 2012 total GHG emissions for the ANDM were at estimated 11.9 Mt
CO2e for the year 2012, however this number included the transport
figures for Mount Currie which now falls under the Sisonke District
Municipality and is no longer part of the ANDM and was therefore
updated. Two large contributors to emissions in that inventory, waste
burning and wildfires, were also revisited. Emissions from waste burning
was recalculated and found to be significantly lower than previously
estimated. While wildfire data was unavailable for this study, the previous
value was found to be three orders of magnitude higher than likely
estimates and was consequently adjusted to be in line with national levels.
Updating data and conversion factors, the GHG emissions for the ANDM is
estimated at 2.6 Mt CO2e. The largest contributor to local emissions is still
thought to be the uncontrolled open burning of uncollected waste, which
contributes about 52.1% of total GHGs in the ANDM followed by
household fuel combustion and purchased electricity contributing 34.1%
and 8.7% respectively. These numbers refer to emissions regardless of
carbon sequestered from the AFOLU sector.
It is important to note that the national, provincial and district GHG
inventories are as yet incomplete, as much of the data vital to the final
calculations are still lacking. This includes adequate data on energy use,
both residentially and in industries, waste data based on population (in the
Eastern Cape) or estimated burning rates (in the ANDM) rather than
measured waste generated, and understated data for the AFOLU sector.
With this in mind, this inventory should be used as a guide to the
implementation of further studies into the GHG emissions and control
thereof for the ANDM.
4.3 Overview of the energy sector in the ANDM
Energy has been recognized as key to economic development worldwide.
The way energy is sourced, produced and used is a major socio-economic
and environmental challenge both locally and globally. South Africa has
been recognized as one of the major contributors to this global issue, being
the largest emitter of GHGs in Africa. The South Africa Carbon Snapshot
th
Report (2012) shows that South Africa was the 12 highest CO2 emitter in
2009 globally. South Africa exceeds the world average of 4.49 tonnes of
CO2 per capita and is higher than fellow BRICS countries, China, Brazil and
India with 9.18 tonnes of CO2 per capita. This study was for annual 2009
CO2 emissions from energy consumption only and did not include other
GHGs. This is mainly caused by its high dependence on coal as a primary
energy source.
Purchased
Electricity
8.7%
Road transport
Biomass
3.0%
burning
(veldt fires)
0.1%
Households
fuel
34.1%
Other
5.1%
Waste Burning
52.1%
Sanitation
0.4%
Solid waste
1.6%
Figure 16: Alfred Nzo District Municipality proportionate CO2 equivalent
emissions by sector, adapted from the ANDM Energy Regeneration
Master Plan (2013)
48
Energy poverty is recognised as a major global challenge and in response
the UN has proposed an international objective to “Ensure Universal
Access to Modern Energy Services by 2030” (United Nations, 2010).
Included in this objective is an understanding that energy services must be
reliable and affordable, sustainable and, where feasible, from low-GHGemitting energy sources. If the ANDM aims to create improved economic
growth and enable an escape from poverty for the poorest citizens, energy
access must be a priority. The District will therefore need to navigate this
development, taking into consideration that for urban inhabitants, grid
extension may be the most appropriate solution for electricity supply,
while for rural inhabitants the most appropriate options may be a
combination of grid for those living close enough to transmission lines,
with decentralised renewable energy options for off-grid electricity supply.
High quality renewable energy in the rural, distributed parts of the district
would provide invaluable opportunities for development. Biomass is likely
to remain the primary fuel source for cooking, although more efficient and
cleaner cooking devices may be used (Sanchez 2010).
4.4 Energy Use and Source
The IDP notes that the ANDM’s predominant energy source is from wood,
with the second most prominent source being electricity. The ANDM
Energy Regeneration Master Plan (2013) shows that out of the 217,418
GWh per annum that was consumed in the country in 2012, about 213.7
GWh per annum were consumed in the ANDM. This illustrates that the
local power network is not yet fully developed and highlights the low levels
of access to electricity in the region. A number of power upgrades are
identified which will help to provide additional capacity and resilience in
the network to support the increase in demand. However there are
currently no plans to develop a generating plant in the area. This means
electricity will be sourced from the national grid and therefore follow a
similar profile of emissions, predominantly sourced from coal, to that of
the rest of South Africa. Nationally, there are more local moves to
incorporate a greater mix and proportion of renewable energy through the
REIPPP programme. There are currently no plans for any large-scale
renewable energy projects in the ANDM, for solar, wind, or hydropower.
Until there are, the ANDM residential and industrial sector is likely to grow
with continued reliance on the national coal energy source. This poses a
risk for the inhabitants of the municipality, as the supply is unreliable and
dependency reduces the autonomy and self-sufficiency of the district.
The ANDM is supplied with 985,5GWh per year of electricity from Eskom
for bulk energy supply in Matatiele and Mbizana. This is the largest energy
demand, followed by the residential sector in the remainder of the District.
Of the 169,096 households in the ANDM, only 78,137 are electrified. Less
than 47% of all households in the ANDM have access to electricity. The
consumption within this sector is approximately 79.9 GWh per annum
accounting for 36.2% of the consumption. 90.5% of this sector that has
access to electricity is on a prepaid electricity system.
As illustrated in Figure 17, the ANDM uses 44.7% of electricity for provision
of bulk services. This is the highest energy user in the municipality. More
specific information on the eventual use of this energy is currently
unavailable (ANDM Energy Regeneration Master Plan 2013). It is therefore
important for local government to monitor the end-use of bulk electricity
supply after which energy efficiency mechanisms can be put in place.
Energy efficiency mechanisms in low-income housing (Winkler et al. 2002)
as well as in other sectors, have been found to be a powerful means for
institutions which enables development while simultaneously moving
towards lowering emissions (Sathaye et al. 2010).
The low electricity supply in the ANDM presents an opportunity for the
District, Local Municipalities and communities to collaborate in developing
energy programmes that will continue to support low carbon futures. The
local municipalities in particular can play a role and invest in alternative
energy sources that are less reliant on coal as the primary energy source. It
is important to note that although the District is currently contributing a
small portion to the GHG of the country, this picture could change if new
energy investments are not planned in a sustainable manner. This would
have particular impact on the energy security and self-sufficiency of the
district. With the energy sector contributing such a small amount to the
total emissions in the ANDM (approximately 8.7%, Figure 16), improving
safe, sustainable access to electricity should be a priority for the local
municipalities.
49
Exported Agriculture Mining
0.10%
3.10%
2.10%
Commercial
13.60%
Public
Lighting
0.10%
Residential
36.30%
Bulk/Distribu
ted
(Matatiele
LM and
Mbizana LM)
44.70%
Figure 17: Average Proportional Electricity Consumption (2011-2012) per
sector. Adapted from the ANDM Energy Regeneration Master Plan
(2013)
4.5 Transport Sector
The transport sector is a slowly growing sector in the ANDM. It accounts
for 3,0% of the total ANDM GHG emissions. Department of Energy records
showed that emissions from diesel and petrol fuel combustion in the
ANDM were estimated at 0.2 Mt CO2e per annum in 2011. The majority of
these emissions are from the public transport sector. The Statistics South
Africa Census (2011) showed that less than 10% of ANDM residents own a
private vehicle. The rest of population relies on public transport services,
mainly mini buses, taxies and bakkies. There are 10 taxi facilities situated in
different local municipalities in the ANDM, three in Matatiele, two in
Bizana, three in Ntabankulu and two in Umzimvubu. Freight transport in
the District consists of two categories, - the large vehicles that deliver
goods to the shops in towns such as Mount Frere and the smaller goods
vehicle that transport materials between the central shops and the
residential areas. The ANDM GHG inventory does not have clear
specification on the contribution of freight transport in the district’s GHG
emissions.
Despite some investments in new roads and maintenance in the District for example the construction and maintenance of roads and storm water
at Umzimvubu Local Municipality and other areas – access to roads and
poor road infrastructure still remains a major challenge. Local
communities, especially rural communities, remain fairly isolated by very
poor road infrastructure. This has significant consequences in terms of
Local Economic Development as well as service delivery, especially
accessibility to emergency ambulance services and increases the
vulnerability of these communities.
4.6 Solid Waste Management
It is widely recognised that solid waste management plays an important
role in public health, environmental sustainability, economic development
and poverty reduction. The removal of solid waste is one of the most
important municipal services, serving as a prerequisite for other municipal
action (Hoornweg and Bhada-Tata 2012). Within the waste management
sector, landfills and wastewater are the largest contributors to GHG
emissions. In general, however, post-consumer waste is a small contributor
to global GHG emissions (Bogner et al. 2007).
Locally, the ANDM recognises waste management as an environmental
challenge (ANDM 2015). 77,2% of households rely on their own refuse
dumping and removal, and less than 10% of households are serviced by
municipal weekly refuse removal (ECSECC 2014). It is widely recognised
that a cornerstone of sustainable development is the establishment of
affordable, effective and truly sustainable waste management practices in
developing countries (Bogner et al. 2007). This forms the basis of the
ANDM waste management goals (Municipal IWMP 2014).
There are six landfill sites in the ANDM, two landfill sites in uMzimvubu (at
Mount Frere and Mount Ayliff), two landfill sites in Matatiele (at Matatiele
Town and Cedarville), one landfill site in Mbizana (Bizana Town), and one
landfill site in Ntabankulu (north of Ntabankulu Town). The only licensed
sites are those in Matatiele and Mbizana. The Matatiele site, operational
since 2008, has the capacity to accommodate all the waste from the local
urban areas for at least the next 15 years (Alfred Nzo Annual Report 2013).
50
Mbizana’s site has recently been licensed but has not yet been fenced off
(Mbizana IWMP 2014). Ntabankulu Local Municipality is planning to revive
and pilot a waste collection project within some of the rural areas (in
Isilindini and Zinyosini, which are rural settlements located in Ward 2).
The lack of solid waste removal leaves many citizens in the district with
few options for waste disposal. As a result many households and
communities burn their waste. It is estimated that as much as 30% of the
solid waste in the District Municipality is burned. This is the figure which
was used by the Energy Regeneration Master Plan (2013) to calculate the
emissions from solid waste burning. Assuming this number is accurate,
52.1% of emissions in the ANDM result directly from solid waste burning.
This makes waste a high contributor to GHG emissions despite the small
contribution of waste collection to overall emissions (1.6%, Figure 16).
The likely form of waste burning in the municipality is Open Burning. This
category includes dump fires, pit burning, fires on plain soil and barrel
burning. It is the cheapest and easiest option for volume reduction and
disposal of combustible materials for people in many parts of the world.
Despite its widespread use, open burning is an environmentally
unacceptable practice (Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic
Pollutants 2004). Although the Stockholm Convention – to which South
Africa is a signatory – is concerned with persistent organic pollutants such
as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD), polychlorinated
dibenzofurans (PCDF), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and
hexachlorobenzene (HCB) as products of incomplete combustion, open
burning is responsible for the generation of many additional toxic byproducts of combustion. Other by-products include polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons, particulate matter, benzene and carbon monoxide.
Regardless of specific chemistry, smoke and unpleasant odours accompany
open burning, and are a health hazard. Despite this, household waste will
continue to be burned where it is seen as cost effective and convenient, or
considered socially acceptable.
including the incinerator which must burn at 750 degrees Celsius and a
complex set of filters which remove heavy metals and other pollutants. As
a result GHG emissions are largely avoided, except for small emissions of
CO2 from fossil carbon sources such as plastic (Consonni et al. 2005). Due
to the large investment required for this waste management option, it is
unlikely to be feasible for the ANDM in the near term.
In order to realise the long-term possibilities of municipal level waste-toenergy options, refuse removal services in ANDM must be vastly improved.
Although waste burning is a significant contributor to municipal emissions,
it is a sector which if reformed creates multiple improvements to public
health and in the long-term could offer opportunities for energy
generation through small scale waste-to-energy schemes such as in
household and community biogas digesters. Separating of compostable
and non-compostable waste is an achievable and highly impactful first step
that the municipality could make to reduce the impact of waste on the
environment with benefits for soil quality and agriculture. If these
practices are already taking place in the many agricultural communities of
the district, then attention should be shifted to small towns and semiurban communities that are good candidates for communal scale biogas
digesters. Further, in areas where waste collection services cannot
penetrate, communal landfills should be encouraged with particular
attention paid to building safe and modern communal landfills,(which
include appropriate waste separation, sealing of landfills and covering).
Where new landfills are planned, safety standards must be met and all
non-recyclable or compostable waste collected waste must be sent to
these landfills.
It is important to note the difference between open burning, a source of
many air pollutants and GHG, and controlled incineration of waste, which
can reduce the total mass of waste and offset fossil-fuel use through waste
to energy schemes. Incineration of waste requires large infrastructure
51
Box 1: Biogas Digesters
Organic waste can be disposed directly to the ecosystem, in the form of compost,
or, due to its heat capacity, it can be converted into energy. This can be done
through the use of biogas digesters. Biogas is a mixture of methane (CH4: 50-70%),
carbon dioxide (CO2: 30-40%) and traces of hydrogen sulphide (H2S) produced
through biodegradation of organic matter in the absence of oxygen. The organic
materials that produce biogas can be food, garden, or crop waste, animal and
human faeces. The biogas production is affected by: type of organic matter,
bacteria, anaerobic conditions, and heat. Three types of biogas digesters (Helanya
2010) may be appropriate for the ANDM. All are suitable for small-scale biogas
production that can be used for off-grid heat and electricity generation. They are
most efficient and least costly if they can be used directly for heating (Cheng 2013).
1. Chinese Fixed Dome Digester
This type of digester is installed under
ground where the gas and slurry are in
the same storage tank. The pit and
dome are constructed with bricks and
cement. As the gas is collected above
the decomposing feedstock it displaces
the sludge towards the tank where it is
collected and can be used as a fertiliser. Biogas is collected through the gas pipe
and transferred to the point of use.
2. Indian floating drum digester
This biogas digester has a floating gas
cover that expands according to the
volume of gas produced. The mixing
tank is used to mix the feedstock that
is then transferred through the inlet
pipe to the storage tank where the
anaerobic process happens. The slurry is collected in the pit below the ground. The
steel gas drum is placed on top with its opening facing downward and collects gas.
3. Bag Digester
This biogas digester consists of a plastic
cylindrical bag placed in a trench with an
inlet and outlet pipe. When the gas is
produced it inflates the bag, which can be
weighed down at the top to maintain the
gas pressure. The lower two-thirds of the
bag are filled with the slurry.
Information for the text box is drawn primarily from Vanyaza (2014) with images from
Helanya (2010) and Letete (2011)
The greatest challenge to improving the state of solid waste management
and reducing the impact of the sector on the environment appears to be
the difficulty of servicing households given the dispersed and rural nature
of the area. Much of the attention on waste is therefore focused on
sanitation and wastewater treatment. Attention should be paid to context
specific solutions to waste management with focus on refuse collection in
urban areas and overall waste reduction for the municipality. Buy-back
centres, waste reduction campaigns and education regarding recycling,
and the environmental and the health effects of waste burning, are
required to mitigate this problem. The problems related to the rural and
dispersed nature of the area should be addressed through encouraging
localised action in communities such as re-use of inorganic wastes as far as
is practically possible and for organic waste streams to be used as
supplement feedstock for portable biogas digester facilities. Properly
managed communal dumps have less impact than waste burning, currently
estimated to emit 1,4 Mt CO2e in the ANDM alone.
4.7 Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use
Approximately 25% of annual anthropogenic GHG emissions are generated
within the land-use sector globally, particularly through agriculture and the
degradation of forest and grassland ecosystems. Dry biomass and organic
material is approximately 50% carbon and therefore the combustion of
biomass and turnover and exposure of soil organic carbon, leads to the
release of carbon into the atmosphere. However, there are several ways in
which atmospheric carbon dioxide can be reduced through land-use
activities, including through the sequestration of carbon through the
restoration of ecosystems and agricultural soils (Table 23).
The South African National Carbon Sink Assessment identified seven
potential land-use based climate change mitigation activities that may be
applicable to the ANDM (Table 23). For planning, finance and risk
assessment purposes, it is useful to consider these potential activities in
two broad classes due to the nature of emission reductions and
implementation models:
1. Landscape orientated activities are where the source of GHG
emissions or sequestration of carbon occurs across landscapes
through processes like avoiding deforestation or through the
52
2.
restoration of grasslands and agricultural land. Such landscapes,
especially in the case of ANDM, are often populated and utilised,
requiring consideration of existing land-use planning, rural economics
and governance structures. The implementing entity in the context of
ANDM is likely to be a Government program (e.g. EPWP), a non-profit
organisation (NPO) focused on rural livelihoods and conservation, or a
private landowner who wishes to manage his/her property in a
sustainable manner over time.
Energy orientated activities within the AFOLU sector focus on the
substitution of fossil fuel based power with energy generated using
fuel stock sourced from the land-use sector. In the case of biomass-toenergy initiatives, fuel stock is sourced from forestry waste, sugar
bagasse or the clearing of alien invasive plants. Anaerobic biogas
digesters are typically fueled with animal manure from cattle feedlots,
piggeries or commercial chicken farms. In both cases, commercial
viability depends on the concentration of fuel stocks and their
availability throughout the year. Implementation may be undertaken
by the private sector or through a municipality or other arm of
Government (e.g. EPWP). As an example, the uMgungundlovu District
Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal (which has highly concentrated
industrial agriculture ) is currently facilitating the realisation of six
anaerobic biogas digesters within the area it governs, using fuel stock
from dairy farms, cattle feedlots, chicken farms and piggeries.
4.8 Alignment with ecosystem service and
ecosystem-based climate change adaptation
ventures
One of the principle reasons for the growing emphasis on land-use based
mitigation in recent years is the substantial set of potential co-benefits that
are often realised through implementation. As an example, the
implementation of grassland restoration and management activities at
scale often results in significant livestock production, rural livelihood, and
ecosystem services benefits while creating jobs. As it leads to the
restoration of resilient ecosystems services, such as the regulation of water
flow and sedimentation, it is a form of ecosystem-based climate change
adaptation in its own right. In a similar manner, the two energy related
activities, biomass to energy and anaerobic biogas digesters, are often
adopted as a means of managing waste and the quality of downstream
water services in addition to reducing GHG emissions. It is therefore
pertinent to consider the suite of suggested mitigation activities within
broader development planning, rather than as purely climate change
mitigation activities per se.
Table 23: Potential land-use sector climate change mitigation activities through
carbon sequestration
Emission
Reduction in
Spatial
reduction
emissions
Activity
extent
per yr
over 20yr
(ha)*
(tCO2e)
(tCO2e)
Lower est. - only bare
Reforestation
1 150
7 590
151 800
land
(Coastal and
Upper est - incl.
15 800
104 280
2 085 600
Scarp Forests) grassland, open bush
Lower est. - Gullies and
Grassland
16 000
29 333
586 667
bare ground
Upper est. - Grasslands
(Restoration)
141 000
258 500
5 170 000
and gullies
Conservation
Only subsistence
36 000
33 000
660 000
Agriculture
farming areas
Coastal and scarp
REDD+
144 000
forests
Total - Lower estimate
69 923
1 398 467
Total - Upper estimate
395 780
7 915 600
* The spatial extent estimate should be viewed as a conservative estimate based
on existing publications and expert opinion. A dedicated assessment of the
potential spatial extent of each activity is still required that not only assesses the
ecological potential but economic constraints and social acceptance as well.
Initial results indicate that the restoration of grasslands may present the
largest opportunity to sequester carbon in the ANDM, followed by
conservation agriculture and reforestation. However, as noted in the full
report (Annex X), a progressive landscape approach is suggested where all
potential land-use based climate change mitigation activities are
implemented, verified and monitored jointly. This may be more cost
53
efficient, reduce investment risk and improve the likelihood of further
social, ecosystem service and climate change adaptation benefits.
The estimate of areas suitable for conservation agriculture focuses on
small-grower subsistence agriculture where it is assumed that there is
substantial opportunity to sequester additional carbon (36,000ha). The
principles of conservation agriculture can certainly be applied to
commercial agriculture, but it is assume that there may be limited appetite
for such interventions in the region. If commercial entities were open to
conservation farming, it could increase the potential to 190,000ha.
the country, maintaining this status while delivering full services to ANDM
citizens, on a sustained basis, will require institutional commitment and
support from national government and partnerships with the private
sector. Combining the goal of reduced energy poverty with a low carbon
future will require unique solutions for rural and urban inhabitants, a
strong will from the municipality and financial and skills development
support from both internal and external sources. The municipality has
shown a dedication to creating a sustainable future for its citizens that will
aid in achieving this low carbon development pathway.
The joint implementation of reforestation, grassland restoration and
conservation agriculture principles may lead to the sequestration of
between 0.07 – 0.4 Mt CO2e per year, reducing the municipalities
emissions by up to 15%. This should be viewed as a decent but initial
estimate that would need to be calibrated through further dedicated
mapping and sequestration rate modeling. Furthermore, it should be
noted that there is likely to be a significant 'ramp-up' period to
implementation at scale of at least 5-8 years. As shown in Table 23
conservation, reforestation and restoration of grasslands, forests, and
gullies can provide major carbon sequestration for the District, reducing
the local emissions and contributing to the global fight against
anthropogenic climate change.
4.9 Mitigation Risks and Opportunities
Access to energy in the District is currently very low with the majority of
the population experiencing major energy poverty. From the development
and energy perspective this situation requires immediate remedial actions
that involve infrastructure development as well as institutional support.
However, this also presents an opportunity for the District to start thinking
about developing a sustainable energy sector that supports the
continuation of a low carbon path for the District and leads to a energy
secure and self-sustainable future. This can be achieved through the
development and implementation of projects and industries that are less
reliant on coal as the primary energy source. It is important to note that
although the District is currently contributing a small portion to the GHG of
54
Section 5: ANDM Integrated Climate
Change Response Action Plan
while other wetlands secure river flow, reduce soil erosion or improve
water quality. Conversely, damage to ecological infrastructure can increase
the risk that the District faces. Importantly, careful and proactive
management of EI is cost-effective compared to engineered solutions, this
provides the opportunity for ANDM to leverage its assets
5.1 Introduction
Policies and programmes that work to diversify livelihoods, protect against
shocks, and promote inclusive growth can help people manage social and
economic risks that climate change causes. Climate sensitive social
protection systems can also support recovery from climate-related
disasters, and integration with insurance policies can help households
weather extreme events.
As demonstrated above, there are a range of potential climate change
impacts on rural agricultural economies and settlements. Rural economies
in the ANDM are primarily dependent on agriculture, herding, and tourism
activities (in addition to social grants and retail and trading activities).
These are all directly or indirectly vulnerable to climate change. High levels
of poverty, low levels of access to services, and high levels of direct
dependence on the environment for water, fuel, food, grazing, and
building materials mean that rural communities are particularly vulnerable
to climatic change (CSA 2015).
There are, however, opportunities for new technologies and techniques to
overcome some of the expected impacts, such as temperature increase,
enhanced evapotranspiration, water quality and quantity changes and
flooding that the ANDM might like to explore. These include renewable
and alternative energy sources, such as solar and biogas, efficient irrigation
systems, or innovative cooling, water storage, water treatment, and storm
water processes.
Sound management of natural resources will prevent or at least minimise
risks posed by changes in surface water runoff, soil erosion, flooding, fire,
storms, and sea level rise. The ecological infrastructure of the ANDM is its
primary climate response asset, with areas such as floodplains and large
wetlands either reducing the size of flood peaks or providing a buffer,
Critically, the extension of basic services to people in rural areas – safe,
clean and reliable energy, water, sanitation, and transport, as well as safe
and well designed settlements and dwellings – will go a long way towards
addressing the drivers of socio-economic vulnerability generally.
Enhancing livelihoods through job creation and local economic
development will achieve the same ends, in combination with integrated
infrastructure development and planning that considers both the natural
environment and the wellbeing of society. Healthy, safe, and resilient
communities are better able to adapt to shocks and stresses of any kind,
including climate change. Thus effective service delivery is one of the
primary tasks to be undertaken in building a climate responsive and
resilient ANDM.
Finally, as shown very clearly in Section 2 above, climate is a cross-cutting
issue, with the potential to affect the built environment, service delivery,
the natural environment, the economy, and human health and well-being
in equal measure. It is important that climate change is seen not as a
concern for the environment only, but one of sustainable development
and integrated planning in the ANDM.
The climate response plan presented here covers general good practice
responses that will build resilience to climate change and other pressures
through service delivery, innovation, and natural resource management;
lists sector-specific responses that can be pursued by particular
departments within the municipality, and evaluates typical IDP project
types for climate responsiveness, providing a framework for site specific
project evaluation that can be applied by the ANDM. We also provide
options for resourcing implementation of the proposed climate response
practices, and some tools for communicating critical climate change
messages to communities.
55
Rural settlements are especially sensitive to climate change due to their
dependence on agriculture. To improve the resilience of rural settlements,
the rural economy may need to be rethought in the long term. The
development of diverse livelihood options that are less agriculturally
focused and still enhance incomes is critical. In the meantime, initiatives
such as climate smart agriculture and Ecosystem-based Adaptation will
play an important role in maintaining the productivity of rural areas under
changing conditions. Urban and small-scale agriculture should be
supported to play an increasingly important role in food security and build
additional resilience.
In line with the National Climate Change Response Strategy, Long Term
Mitigation Scenarios, and Long Term Adaptation Scenarios, this document
addresses both climate change mitigation and adaptation in an integrated
way. Adaptation and mitigation are not mutually exclusive. There are often
adaptation approaches which also have mitigation benefits, such as
restoring degraded vegetation, and vice versa. These types of multiple
benefits approaches should be considered as much as possible.
It will be critical to ensure that there is continued and sustainable
development in the region that allows the ANDM to prosper even in the
face of climate change. Responses will need to be flexible as there are a
range of uncertainties which make it difficult to determine whether a
proposed course of action will be effective in the longer term. These
include future emissions scenarios, technological advancements, and
socio-economic conditions. It is also likely that some tradeoffs will need to
be made along the way. For example, where critical ecological
infrastructure needs to be conserved, new settlements and infrastructure
may need to be developed elsewhere.
56
5.2 Overarching Climate Change Responses
In this section we summarise the main overarching actions that will support the transition of the ANDM towards greater climate responsiveness in all sectors. These
often interlinked and interdependent activities can only be completely achieved through multiple strategic partnerships, across scales and spheres of government,
between actors in the public, private and civil society sectors, and between researchers, strategists and operational implementers.
Figure 18: The climate change response cycle (IPCC 2007, DEDEA 2011)
57
Table 24: List of overarching climate change responses it is recommended the ANDM undertake as priority activities
*Please note those priorities highlighted are also found in the 2015-2020 strategy
TOP PRIORITIES FOR ACTION
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Build resilience through avoiding and reversing any loss of, and formally protecting, important ecological infrastructure, including wetlands, river
buffers, and water catchment areas. This is the single most important climate change adaption strategy for the ANDM. See Figure 21 and 22 and Table
25 and 26.
Transition to a low carbon economy by maximising energy efficiency and making the most of natural resources to deliver low-carbon development in
the ANDM and avoid development. Avoiding locking the ANDM into a path of increasing GHG emissions is the single most important mitigation action.
Ensure universal access to safe and reliable energy, water, sanitation, and housing. Effective service delivery is the single most important integrated
climate change response strategy for the ANDM. See Figure 21.
Ensure integrated land use planning, across sites and sectors, to build climate resilience, risk minimisation, and ecological infrastructure in a way that
supports a green economy in the ANDM. Multi-sectoral integrated planning and implementation, along with internal and community capacity
development, is critical. See Figure 20.
Influence behaviour change through education and awareness and getting buy-in from all levels. See Section 5.7.
Enhance institutional capacity of the district through training and capacity development of officials on climate change and disaster preparedness
including enhancing early warning systems and communications on disasters
ACTIVITIES SUPPORTING THE PRIORITY ACTIONS
1







Implement effective land management and ecosystem-based approaches to natural resource management, such as sustainable
agricultural practices. This could include, but is not limited to, restoring wetlands, implementing planned grazing, maintaining
appropriate stocking rates, controlling alien vegetation, and managing soil erosion.
Implement effective land use and infrastructure planning that considers the location of critical ecological infrastructure in the ANDM
through appropriate zoning and permitting processes, in order to avoid irreversible damage to the ecosystems which provide critical
ecosystem and climate adaptation services in the ANDM.
Avoid disturbing floodplains, river buffers, and wetlands with construction and agricultural activities. This will help to avoid the
degradation of landscapes associated with rapid runoff, soil erosion, and flash flooding.
Implement the strict protection and careful management of important ecological infrastructure, particularly the high yield grasslands and
wetlands important for maintaining water supplies.
Expand land under stewardship and other formal protection and informal conservation mechanisms
Protect the Pondoland Centre of Endemism from threats from large scale developments, such as mining, which may drive species
extinctions and habitat loss and have other impacts on the economy through reduced aesthetics for tourism.
Reduce unemployment through implementation of the above activities and the shift towards a green economy. Expanded Public Works
Programmes will have a strong role to play as part of implementing these activities across the District. These programmes should be scaled
up as well as further developed to support the long term sustainability of natural resources while enhancing livelihoods.
58


Engage the private sector to support these green economic activities.
Promote the development of SMMEs that support a green economy and provide jobs, such as wood products made from alien vegetation
or small scale farmer cooperatives.
These activities have a very high potential effectiveness for reducing water supply and sediment impacts as well as flood risks.
2








Improve waste management in all local municipalities through waste minimisation, recycling, improved refuse collection, and landfill
management
Support the transition to a low-carbon economy by promoting renewable energy
Build mitigation capacity through gathering and sharing information, research, data collection, monitoring, and analysis, and awareness
Build mitigation capacity through creating supportive social structures and working in partnership
Build mitigation capacity through creating supportive governance, including low carbon development regulations, by-laws, and guidance
Address energy poverty by improving access to safe, healthy, and low carbon energy sources for households and businesses
Increase end user energy efficiency through new technologies and innovation
Invest in appropriate low carbon, energy efficiency, and renewable energy technologies
Climate change mitigation involves using less energy, using energy more efficiently, treating waste as a resource, and moving to lower-carbon and
renewable fuel sources. Together, these will ensure an energy secure future without locking the ANDM into a high emissions development pathway.
3








Improve access to dwellings that are safe in extreme weather, particularly storms. Although traditional dwellings are always problematic,
they are more prone to collapses in extreme storm events and are at greater risk of fire due to the materials they are made of (thatch and
poles) and if they are not secured from lightning strikes. Informal dwellings are also at risk in storms and from fires. Feasible adaptation
strategies include increased provision of housing and retrofitting of traditional buildings to improve safety during storms.
Improve access to reliable supplies of clean drinking water. Importantly, this does not necessarily mean that all houses have to be linked
to regional water schemes as well managed rainwater systems and boreholes can provide reliable and safe water.
Improve access to sufficient sanitation. Importantly, this does not mean that all houses have to be linked to flush toilets, but rather that
significant improvements to the sanitation system are necessary to avoid health impacts and the contamination of local water supplies
Improve access to safe and healthy energy sources for cooking, heating, and lighting.
Improve access to reasonable solid waste disposal. Improperly disposed solid waste can impact on water quality
Improve access to health facilities and the ability to respond to disease and injury associated with the weather and climate change.
Promote effective disaster risk management so that, when extreme events occur, they are dealt with effectively, rapidly, and in a way that
minimises impacts
Explore new approaches to work hours and working conditions on extreme heat and extreme cold days.
The effective provision of basic services will increase the climate responsiveness of communities in the ANDM. Non-climatic factors, such as
accessibility of clean water and adequate sanitation, often play a greater role in health and well -being than climate factors do.
59

4



Avoid locating buildings and other infrastructure in floodplains, river buffers, and wetlands (see Figure 19). These areas, once disturbed, are
at high risk of flooding and eroding. Removal of existing infrastructure currently located in these areas is probably not immediately possible,
but planning can reduce increased risk and, when such infrastructure is replaced, it should be moved to avoid areas prone to flooding.
Plan coastal settlements for additional protection against rising sea levels and storm surges in vulnerable areas.
Strengthen the institutional capacity to manage and direct the use of infrastructure such as water supply and roads.
Maintain and repair roads, bridges and dams to withstand climate impacts
Climate change risks and opportunities need to be considered in all district and municipal plans. Projects must be designed to avoid known risks and
take advantage of opportunities. Building codes and zonation plans must be enforced so that no critical infrastructure or housing is built in areas at
high risk from flooding or coastal erosion. Land use management systems compliant with SPLUMA must be developed.
5 and 6



Train relevant officials on climate change as a cross-cutting and integrated issue closely aligned with core municipal mandates
Include climate change deliverables in the job descriptions and Key Performance Areas of relevant officials
Introduce climate change concepts to communities and schools in a way that is relevant to rural community priorities
Building the capacity of ANDM residents, both in government and in the broader communities, is a critical climate change response strategy in that
it will ensure that people can see the connection between climate change and their own lives, and be better prepared for climate change stresses
and shocks.
60
Figure 20: Map summarizing the poverty of access to services in the ANDM. Lack of
access to basic services is worse in Mbizana and Ntabankulu than in Umzimvubu and
Matatiele. Lack of access to basic services increases climate change risk.
Figure 19: Illustration of the expansion of fields, road infrastructure, and dwellings
into a valley bottom wetland in the Matatiele Municipality. These activities are both
disruptive in terms of ecosystem services provision and risky in terms of flood and
erosion damage, and should be avoided where possible.
61
5.3 Ecosystem-based Adaptation Priority Areas to
Guide Targets
Supporting the ANDM to define targets for LandCare and the implementation
of other nature conservation and land rehabilitation efforts involved a deeper
look at the EbA priority areas defined in the ANDM Climate Change
Vulnerability Assessment (CSA 2015). For your convenience we have replicated
the methodology for defining EbA priority areas in Annex 3. EbA priorities,
those sites, ecological infrastructure, and natural features that contribute
most to the ability of communities in the ANDM to respond to climate change
effectively, should be the first sites addressed through rehabilitation and
protection programmes in order to ensure a climate resilient ANDM. These
areas also need to be fully integrated into planning in the ANDM to ensure
that ANDM programmes and infrastructure development activities do not
negatively impact on these areas.
Each aspect contributing to EbA was given a score in the original analysis (CSA
2015), based on presence of ecological infrastructure, presence of climate
resilient natural features, presence of biodiversity, and levels of social demand
related to ecosystems. These scores range from 0 (the area is irreversibly
transformed and does not contribute to EbA) to 39 (highest possible level of
overlap of values, these areas contributes most to EbA).
All of the irreversibly transformed or heavily impacted areas were excluded
from the EbA priorities analysis. These are shown as grey areas in the maps in
Figure 21 and Figure 22. The remaining areas with some value for EbA were
divided into 5 quantiles based on their EbA priority scores and mapped at the
ANDM (Figure 22) and local municipal (Figure 23) to show their geographical
extent. A summary of the average EbA scores per category is shown in Table
25.
This process allows a robust and defensible identification of the specific areas
for EbA that need urgent attention. The highlighted areas are critical sources
of ecosystem services that build resilience for the people living in the ANDM.
The results of the prioritisation should be used as a key source of information
to guide climate change response, spatial planning, and conservation and
stewardship implementation in the ANDM.
All of the highest value EbA priority areas, mapped in red, must be included
into appropriate restrictive use zones – these areas need formal protection
and hands-on management to ensure that they can deliver ecosystem services
sustainably into the future for the ANDM. All higher value EbA priority areas
must be considered in infrastructure development and other municipal
planning processes, to maximise their ecosystem services value and minimise
negative impacts.
Table 25: Average Ecosystem-based adaptation score per category.
Category
Average Score
Highest Value EbA (q1)
32.2
Second Highest Value EbA (q2)
29.4
Third Highest Value EbA (q3)
27.5
Fourth Highest Value EbA (q4)
25.0
Lower Value EbA (q5)
21.1
Heavily Impacted Landscapes
0.0
The top quantile, mapped in red, represents the top 20% of the EbA priorities
in terms of score achieved. The next category, in orange, represents the next
20% by score achieved. The lowest importance category, mapped in green,
represents the bottom quantile of the EbA priority scores. The spatial extent
of the priority areas, in hectares and as a percentage of the total size of the
municipality, are summarised for each local municipality and for the ANDM in
Table 26.
62
Figure 21: Map of ecosystem based adaptation priorities in the Alfred Nzo District municipality. Red and orange areas indicate the areas of highest value for EbA, while grey areas
indicate heavily transformed or impacted areas.
63
Ecosystem-based adaptation priority areas that should form the basis of Landcare and other restoration and land management targets in the ANDM
Matatiele
Mbizana
Ntabankulu
Legend
Umzimvubu
Figure 22: Ecosystem-based priority areas that should form the basis of Landcare and other restoration and land management targets in the ANDM, shown at the local municipality scale for
each of the local municipalities in the ANDM. Larger maps are available in Annex 4 to this report.
64
Table 26: Table summarising number of hectares per municipality that should be priority for restoration and land management targets, based on CSA (2015) EbA Priority Areas maps
Highest Value
EbA
(q1)
Second Highest
Value EbA
(q2)
Third Highest
Value EbA
(q3)
Fourth
Highest Value
EbA
(q4)
Lower
Value EbA
(q5)
Heavily
Impacted
Landscapes
Total
Matatiele
116.7 km2
2.7%
251 km2
5.8%
452.2 km2
10.4%
1144.1 km2
26.3%
693 km2
15.9%
1695.3 km2
39%
4352.3 km2
Umzimvubu
169.4 km2
6.6%
246 km2
9.5%
274.3 km2
10.6%
420.3 km2
16.3%
478.8 km2
18.6%
988.3 km2
38.3%
2577.2 km2
273 km2
11.3%
207.7 km2
8.6%
202.7 km2
8.4%
114.7 km2
4.7%
43 km2
1.8%
1575.7 km2
65.2%
2416.7 km2
Ntabankulu
167.3 km2
12.1%
150 km2
10.8%
168.8 km2
12.2%
187.2 km2
13.5%
120.7 km2
8.7%
590.9 km2
42.7%
1385 km2
Alfred Nzo District
754.1 km2
7%
868.9 km2
8.1%
1093.5 km2
10.2%
1795.5 km2
16.7%
1308.4 km2
12.2%
4910.8 km2
45.8%
10731.2 km2
Mbizana
65
5.4 Sector-based Responses
Based on stakeholder engagement processes described in section 1.2 of
this report and the ANDM climate strategy brief, the strategic focus areas
shown in Figure 23 and Figure 24 for climate change response have been
identified in the ANDM. Although they are separated into mitigationrelated and adaptation-related sectors in the diagrams, these are often not
mutually exclusive in practice and sector-specific responses may contain
elements of both adaptation and mitigation. Public awareness, education,
and communication, to be discussed in section 5.5, and integrated
development planning, discussed previously in section 5.2, are overarching
themes for both adaptation and mitigation.
Figure 24: Strategic focus areas related primarily to adaptation
Very few projects are unambiguously either beneficial or maladaptive.
Projects that should be beneficial can be disastrous if they are badly
planned, inappropriately located, or poorly implemented. On the other
hand, projects that appear likely to be maladaptive may be relatively
benign if well implemented.
When planning a new project, critical things to keep in mind are location,
risk, and the nature of the intervention.
Figure 23: Strategic focus areas related primarily to mitigation
Location: It is important to avoid, or minimise the damage from, projects
that may impact negatively on ecological infrastructure, such as wetlands,
rivers, floodplains, corridor areas, and key water production or catchment
areas. Likewise, avoid locations where the project will impact negatively on
the ANDM’s natural assets or expose its people or infrastructure to greater
risk. In the case of a beneficial project, intervention should be located such
that they contribute optimally in the high priority areas for climate
resilience. For example, an intervention in better gazing management may
66
have a better return on investment in an area critical for water production
than in other areas.
Risk: Project planning and design must take potential risks, including
potential future climate change risks, into account to ensure that the
development is not unnecessarily exposed to unmanageable risk. For
example, all infrastructure and housing projects must be designed so that
they avoid areas at high risk of flood damage.
Nature of the intervention: Any given project could be highly beneficial or
very negative depending on how it is implemented. For example, an
agricultural development project based on GMOs supporting small scale
farmers to use genetically modified crops could be highly beneficial if
drought tolerant and higher yield varieties were introduced in a way that
did not reduce smallholder independence. However, the introduction of
monocultures of high yield but drought vulnerable crops where access to
seeds are controlled by third parties could undermine agricultural
resilience locally.
The implementation and management of projects is also really important.
Sufficient resources need to be in place to manage the project sustainably
after completion, for its entire lifetime. For example, a new waste water
treatment works would only be better than VIP toilets or septic tanks if it is
sustainably managed for its full lifetime. If it is not, then the new upgraded
system may in fact worsen the situation by allowing contaminated effluent
to reach river systems.
Where negative impacts of the development on the natural assets and
ecological infrastructure that promote climate resilience in the ANDM are
unavoidable, for example mining of the coastal dunes, sufficient
rehabilitation requirements and plans must be put in place to ensure that
damage to key ecological infrastructure is reversed later.
Each project needs to be comprehensively evaluated on a case by case and
site specific basis in the initial and detailed planning stages to identify
whether it is indeed beneficial or maladaptive. Where risks are identified,
further analysis is needed to ensure that benefits are maximised and
negative impacts minimalised.
67
Table 27: Table summarising typical ANDM implementation projects and possible climate response options per strategic focus sector. A list of current project types from the
ANDM and LM IDPs and SDBIPs are is provided for each sector, climate change responsive options are listed, it is noted whether or not there is a current budget line item
that could fund climate responsive options, and potentially maladaptive projects and approaches are highlighted. The risk of maladaptation typically has more to do with
how a particular project is planned and managed, and where specifically it is located, than with the type of proposed project on its own. Not all current or proposed projects
fall directly under the municipal mandate, in which case work with partners can strengthen the resilience of the municipality as a whole.
Sector: Energy
Mandate
Projects Types
Responsive Action
Existing Budget
Yes
Provision of energy
to households and
light industry is a
core mandate of
local government.
Responsible
departments are
the Infrastructure
Development and
Municipal Services
(Engineering
services and
Emergency
Services),
Community
Development
Services
(Community
Development and
Disaster
Management), and
Development and
Economic Planning
Directorates
Electrification of
households
Installation of solar
powered street lights
Installation of solar water
heaters
Provide street lighting
Substation upgrades
Provision of free basic
electricity and free basic
alternative energy
Residential housing
development
Community awareness
Explore alternative use of low
carbon energy sources such as
small-scale biogas digesters, solar
water heaters, small scale solar
systems at the household level
Foster decentralised energy access
in rural areas
Reform free energy subsidy to low
carbon and renewable alternatives
Explore alternative low carbon and
renewable energy sources at scale
such a village level solar or wind
power plants
Identify sites and investors
Implement energy efficiency
programmes such as retrofitting of
municipal buildings and using
energy saving appliances
Build thermally efficient low cost
housing
Require large scale developments
to have mandatory energy
management plans, prefer
developers who use renewables
Utilise solar powered streetlights.
Potential for Maladaptation
No

X
Currently planned large
scale energy infrastructure
projects, if implemented
successfully, will move the
municipality away from its
current low emissions
pathway.
X
X
X
68
Sector: Solid Waste Management
Mandate
Projects Types
Responsive Action
Waste management
is a core mandate of
local government.
Waste training and
awareness
Buy-back and recycling
centres
Cleaning
Refuse collection
Construction of landfill sites
Management of landfill
sites
Use methane from landfill sites to
generate power and other
methane related products –
feasibility study required
Use biogas digesters as a source of
energy at small settlement level
Register agricultural waste and
assess suitability for energy
production
Ensure access to refuse collection
for all households
Separate organic and non-organic
waste
Increase composting practices
Recycling
Buy-back centres
Avoid waste that could be re-used
reaching landfill sites
Create and manage communal
dumps and communal landfills to
curb waste burning
Provide and service more bins and
skips
Responsible
department is the
Community
Development
Services (Municipal
and Environmental
Health Services)
Directorate.
Existing Budget
Yes
No
Potential for Maladaptation

X
X
X

X
Unmanaged solid waste
continues to be the number
1 emitter in the ANDM if
unmanaged waste dumping
and waste burning where
refuse is not collected,
failure to separate organic
and non-organic waste, and
poor coordination of
recycling programmes
continues.
Much needed new landfill
sites may be maladaptive if
too small, on sloping sites
close to water sources, or
poorly designed
X
Sector: Water
Mandate
Provision of bulk
water services,
reticulation, and
Projects Types
Bulk water reticulation
infrastructure
Household water
Responsive Action
Utilise irrigation effectively and
efficiently
Promote efficient water use in all
Existing Budget
Yes
No
X
Potential for Maladaptation

Water use efficiency that
69
waste water
management is a
core mandate of
local government.
Responsible
departments are
the Infrastructure
Development and
Municipal Services
(Water Service
Authority and
Water Service
Provision, Project
Management Unit
and Emergency
Services),
Community
Development
Services (Municipal
Health Services and
Disaster
Management), and
Development and
Economic Planning
Directorates
connections
Maintain and repair existing
water and sanitation
infrastructure
Drought relief schemes –
drilling boreholes and
developing springs
Construction of 3 new dams
Raising 1 dam wall
Roll out of VIPs to
households
Water conservation
awareness programmes
sectors and communities
Maintain water infrastructure to
reduce losses from leaks
Clear invasive alien vegetation
Upscale natural resources
management programmes,
including land user incentives
Catchment management that
conserves natural resources
Develop investment opportunities
in ecosystem goods and services
Increase bulk water storage
Harvest rainwater in situ
Introduce flexibility into water use
allocations to ensure food security
and access to drinking water
during dry years
limits the extent to which
users can accommodate any
short-term restrictions on
water use that may be
necessary during times of
drought without prejudicing
productivity or reducing
standards of living
X
X
X
X
Sector: Transport
Mandate
Projects Types
Responsive Action
Transport planning
is a core mandate of
local government.
Local government is
also responsible for
Public transport – bus route
Set minimum efficiency standards
for new additions to government
vehicle fleets and public transport.
Enforce standards of vehicles road
Existing Budget
Yes
No
Potential for
Maladaptation

X
The planned national road
through the ANDM, if
successful, will increase
ANDM’s emissions from the
70
maintaining local
access roads.
Responsible
departments are
the Infrastructure
Development and
Municipal Services
(Engineering
Services) and
Community
Development
Services (Disaster
Management), and
Development and
Economic Planning
Directorates
worthiness.
transport sector
Support the shift to other modes
of transport, particularly from
private to public transport and
non-motorised forms of transport,
such as bicycles.
Increase vehicle occupancy for the
public transport system in the
District. i.e investing in good
quality and fuel efficient buses and
rail transport.
Improve and maintain road access
in the District.
Sector: Health
Mandate
Projects Types
Ensuring the health
and well-being of
citizens is a core
mandate of local
government.
Community outreaches
Community capacity
building
Training for health care
professionals
Waterborne disease
awareness
Creating recreational parks
and sports fields
Responsible
departments are the
Community
Development
Services (Municipal
Health Services,
Disaster
Management), and
Responsive Action
Existing Budget
Yes
No
Potential for Maladaptation
Climate resilient agriculture will
help to ensure food security
Increase access to safe water and
sanitation
Avoid locating settlements in flood
prone areas at higher risk from
waterborne diseases
Safe bridges for water crossings
Strengthen early warning systems
to avoid injury and loss of life
through disaster preparedness
X
X
71
Development and
Economic Planning
Directorates
Educate Mbizana coastal
communities on how to protect
themselves from malaria
Educate communities and outdoor
workers from all sectors on the
risks of heat stress
Equip community clinics with
dedicated heat stress response
equipment
Mobile clinics
Develop new work practices to
accommodate temperature
extremes
X
X
Sector: Infrastructure and Service Delivery
Mandate
Projects Types
Responsive Action
Provision of basic
services and the
infrastructure that
supports this to
households and light
industry is a core
mandate of local
government.
Disaster response,
recovery, and rehabilitation
Disaster management
capacity building
Internal road surfacing
Upgrade sewer systems in
urban areas
Construction of roads and
stormwater drains
Upgrades to roads
Maintenance of access
roads
Sand mining
Housing
Construction of low level
crossings
Identify critical infrastructure at
risk from climate change
Repair and maintain roads, bridges
and dams
Develop site specific risk reduction
plans for affected infrastructure
Responsible
departments are the
Infrastructure
Development and
Municipal Services
(Project
Management Unit,
Consider climate change impacts
on surface water flows in the
design specifications of any new
dams, storm water systems,
culverts and bridges
Consider ecological infrastructure
in infrastructure planning
Existing Budget
Yes
No
X
Potential for Maladaptation


X
X

Building critical
infrastructure on river
banks or in wetlands is likely
to be maladaptive
Any large scale
development along the
coast might be maladaptive,
vulnerable to erosion and
inundation, if not carefully
planned.
Building roads and bridges
that do not consider
ecological infrastructure
and climate impacts will be
mal adaptive
72
Engineering
Services, Emergency
Services),
Community
Development
Services
(Community
Development and
Disaster
Management), and
Development and
Economic Planning
Directorates
Construction of bridges
Repair flood damage
Build institutional capacity to be
flexible in the face of changing
conditions
Include all sectors in early warning
systems and disaster risk reduction
Develop enhanced EWS and
disaster risk reduction approaches
Plan appropriately and develop
capacity for fire management in
settlements
X
Sector: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses
Mandate
Agriculture,
Forestry and Land
Use Planning is not
a core mandate of
local government.
These are provincial
functions.
As among the main
land uses in the
ANDM, however,
agriculture and land
use is a common
theme in Local
Economic
Development
Projects Types
Responsive Action
Fencing of arable land
Fencing of communal land
Grain production
Grain storage facilities
Capacity building and
support for cooperatives
and SMMEs
Waste to wood nurseries
Land rehabilitation
Agro-manufacturing
incubator
Implement agriculture
master plan
Livestock and poultry
production
Fruit, vegetable, and flower
production
Farm with indigenous and locally
adapted livestock breeds that are
heat and drought tolerant
Change livestock species to hardier
species
Store fodder for livestock in fodder
banks, or use alternative
supplementary feeds such as crop
residues if needed
Adjust stocking densities to match
forage availability
Practice rotational grazing
Maintain animal health through
regular vaccination and dipping
and ensuring they have enough
food and water
Promote adoption of cultivation
Existing Budget
Yes
No
X
Potential for Maladaptation


X
X

X
Monocultures of crops that
disempower farmers by
removing access to a
diverse seed bank are likely
to be maladaptive
Irrigation is currently used
to supplement variable
precipitation but this could
become very expensive and
less effective if variability
increases
Increasing the area under
irrigation is subject to water
availability and careful
integrated planning will be
needed to avoid
73
Planning,
Settlement
Planning, and
Environmental
Management.
Some of the LMs
have an agriculture
strategy.
These are the
responsibility of the
Development and
Economic Planning
Directorate.
Forestry development
Livestock improvement
Community afforestation
projects
Aloe processing for
medicinal purposes
Landcare rehabilitation
projects
Establishment and
upgrading of parks
techniques that improve soil
moisture retention and general
crop resilience
Expand irrigated agriculture using
modern and more efficient
irrigation methods, and water and
nutrient conservation technologies
Shift growing areas, planting and
harvesting times, and suitable
crops in line with climate shifts
Expand drought resistant crops
and crops that can tolerate erratic
rainfall, such as sorghum (see Box
2)
Encourage communities to
preserve and plant indigenous
seed varieties
Build an integrated green
economic hub linked to nursery
establishment, indigenous poultry,
and value added agricultural
produce
Provide support for small scale
farmers in order to improve yields
and sustainability and access
markets
Expand forestry in areas that are
not ecologically sensitive and
where potential impacts on
ecological infrastructure are within
acceptable limits
Develop low-premium microinsurance policies that can assist
farmers to protect themselves
from crop failure, pests, drought or
flood
Develop early warning systems, as
well as risk management and
X


X


maladaptive impacts for
downstream communities
Supplementary feeding,
while maintaining stocking
rates, may increase the net
cost of animal production
Migration-based and ‘do
nothing’ response are
generally maladaptive
Other examples of
maladaptive projects
include expansion of
biofuels and other arable
farming into ecological
infrastructure areas or areas
with high potential for soil
erosion.
Single product agriculture
may prove maladaptive –
dependent on one product
or market
X
X
X
X
74
decisions support tools for farmers
Restore forests and woodlands
Avoid deforestation
Manage existing forests and
plantations sustainably
X
Implement soil conservation
Implement conservation tillage
Improve fire management for
sustainable grasslands
X
X
Sector: Biodiversity
Mandate
Projects Types
Responsive Action
Biodiversity
planning and
management is not
a core mandate of
local government.
This is a provincial
function.
CBNRM alien clearing
Working for the Coast
Greening parks, cemeteries,
and public walkways
Zoning and land use planning to
avoid ecological infrastrucutre and
other important landscapes
Maintain natural vegetation
buffers along river systems to
support water yield and flood
attenuation
Protect biodiversity through
establishing nature reserves and
promoting biodiversity
stewardship
Upscale natural resource
management programmes,
including land user incentives
Mainstream conservation planning
into decision making
Develop investment opportunities
in ecosystem goods and services
Avoid coastal development
As a critical natural
resource for ANDM
residents, however,
biodiversity and
environmental
management
projects do appear
in the IDP. Projects
are usually
implemented by
partners.
Existing Budget
Yes
No
Potential for Maladaptation

X
Any large scale
development along the
coast might be maladaptive,
vulnerable to erosion and
inundation, if not carefully
planned.
X
X
X
N/A
N/A
These are the
75
responsibility of the
Development and
Economic Planning
Directorate
(Integrated
Development
Planning, Economic
Planning, and
Environmental
Management).
Sector: Tourism
Mandate
Tourism is not a
core mandate of
local government.
These are provincial
functions.
As one of the few
economic
opportunities in the
ANDM, however,
tourism is
frequently cited in
Local Economic
Development
Planning documents
and many LMs have
tourism strategies.
These are the
responsibility of the
Development and
Economic Planning
(Economic Planning)
Directorate.
Projects Types
Ntenetyana dam
Tourism development
Cultural homestays
Wild Coast developments
Telecommunications
infrastructure
Responsive Action
Plan tourism infrastructure
developments so that they are
protected from sea level rise and
coastal erosion, flooding in river
buffers and wetlands, and damage
from storms
Existing Budget
Yes
No

X

Take advantage of potentially
extended outdoor adventure
tourism season as temperatures
rise in the highlands
Mobilise tourism as part of a
livelihoods diversification strategy
for agricultural communities
Promote EbA activities that
maintain the biodiversity tourists
come to see
Potential for Maladaptation
Constructing tourism
infrastructure on river
banks and in wetlands is
likely to be maladaptive
Any large scale
development along the
coast might be maladaptive,
vulnerable to erosion and
inundation, if not carefully
planned.
X
X
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Box 2: Climate change adaptation options for maize farmers in Mount Frere, Umzimvubu Local Municipality
1
1
2
2
2
S. Ndhleve *, MDV Nakin , L. Zhou , L. Musemwa and M. Sibanda
1
* Risk & Vulnerability Science Centre, Walter Sisulu University, Mthatha.
2
Risk & Vulnerability Science Centre, University of Fort Hare, Alice
Certain types of agriculture may become inappropriate in the Umzimvubu Catchment as climate continues to change. Agricultural development plans
should take note of the changing climate and focus on the most vulnerable groups. In a household level climate change vulnerability assessment in the
Catchment, we found that rural households with the least financial, social and physical assets would be hardest hit. Male-headed households emerged as
more vulnerable than female-headed households.
One of the primary activities undertaken in the rural areas is maize production. Our cost benefit analysis of different agricultural adaptation strategies that
could provide some protection for maize farmers showed that rain-fed sorghum will give the greatest return on investment (ROI) of R1.93 per R1 spent. This
was followed by Zero/Minimal Tillage Maize Farming with irrigation at a ROI of R1.50 for every R1 spent. Zero/Minimal Tillage Maize Farming, Rain fed gives
a maximum ROI of R1.44 for every R1 spent. Growing drought resistant crops should be prioritized in the ANDM, especially in areas under rain fed farming
systems. Sorghum is likely to be a more climate resilient and more productive crop than maize for climate change adaptation investment in the future.
Adaptation choices in agricultural practises should be informed by research. There is a need for more explicit farm level analyses with a focus on
vulnerability, risk and adaptation to inform land use planning and ensure that farming communities adapt to the most likely effects of climate change.
Reducing agriculture won’t generate any value in the ANDM, and adaptations should be encouraged and supported.
This study was produced as part of a project in collaboration with FANRPAN sponsored by Financial and Fiscal Commission (FFC). Special thanks to the
wonderful households of Mt Frere.
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5.5 Evaluating Projects for Climate
Responsiveness
All projects undertaken or planned in the ANDM must be evaluated to
ensure that they align with the climate responsive outcomes. Climate
response projects take place in a world of great climatic and other
uncertainty. It is not always easy to know which response is the most
suitable. When selecting new climate response projects and re-prioritising
or re-planning existing projects to ensure they are climate responsive,
there are, however, a number of things which the ANDM could keep in
mind. In general terms, climate change response projects should ‘do no
harm’, aim to boost and support social, economic, and environmental
rights, and enhance natural ecosystems so that they are better able to
manage and respond to climate change.
Sometimes, climate responsive actions have higher up-front costs than
business as usual approaches to service delivery and development. For
example, building a higher specification bridge would be more expensive
upfront, but will reduce longer term maintenance costs as it will be less
likely to be damaged in floods and require regular repairs. The ANDM
must consider that long-term climate change models point to the need for
early decisive action on climate change and indicate that although actions
may be costly now, this will be cheaper and easier in the long run than
drastic actions taken later under enormous pressure.
The project evaluation tool provided here, based on the Let’s Respond
Toolkit (DEA 2012), consists of a multi-criterion project assessment matrix
that will assist the ANDM to evaluate each current and planned project for
climate responsiveness.
Table 28: Guiding questions per category in the climate responsive project
evaluation matrix to inform the completion of matrix per project reviewed.
Criteria to consider when prioritising projects for climate response action
Effectiveness
Does the project take place in an identified climate change vulnerability
hotspot/s that requires immediate attention?
Does the project improve, better manage, or avoid negative impacts on an
important EbA priority area? (Vulnerability hot spots)
How robust is the project under a range of possible future climate
scenarios?
Will the project still be viable in 20 years given projected climate change
impacts?
Can the project be easily adjusted after implementation to account for
climatic changes? (Robustness)
Contribution to development priorities
Will the project provide benefits in current climate conditions, in the event
that no climate change occurs?
Does the project create any new vulnerability or limit the adaptive capacity
of other communities or future generations and ecosystems? (No regrets)
Does the project contribute to poverty reduction, food security, and/or
increased social resilience?
Does the project support the growth of local green jobs?
Does the project allow for local sourcing of labour, contractors, and
materials?
Does the project support the development of service delivery
infrastructure?
Will the project improve the mobility or residents in the ANDM, and their
ability to access jobs and livelihoods? (Benefit)
Economic cost
Is the project cheap or very expensive to implement?
Is the project likely to be cost effective relative to alternative actions?
Does the project provide good value or a fair return on investment directly
or in terms of co-benefits? (Cost)
Sustainability
Does the project support more efficient resource use and a reduction of
78
waste?
Is the project likely to significantly increase the carbon footprint of the
ANDM?
Could the project potentially damage, or lead to the disturbance of, natural
resources important for climate resilience, as carbon sinks, or under threat
from climate change? (Environmental sustainability)
Implementation capacity
Does the project fall within the existing powers and functions of the ANDM
and its local municipalities?
Does the project require the cooperation of other government levels or
the participation of other partners in civil society and the private sector?
Is the local government capacity to implement the project currently
adequate in terms of both budget and personnel?
Are their barriers to implementation? Are these barriers overcomeable?
(Implementation capacity)
Other considerations
What is the lifetime of the project once completed?
Can visible short term ‘wins’ be effectively balanced with long term
investments? (Time frames)
Do windows of opportunity exist for implementing the proposed project,
or revising the project under review? (Opportunity)
Is the project socially acceptable?
Does the project uphold human rights? (Social acceptability)
79
SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT
Dump and landfill site develop at
community level
Project X
*High
Medium
Low
High
*Medium
Low
Yes
*No
High
*Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
High
*Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
*High
Medium
Low
Yes
*No
High
Medium
*Low
High
Medium
Low
Yes
No
Yes
No
Social
Acceptability
*Yes
No
Yes
*No
*Yes
No
Opportunity
*Yes
No
Timeframes
*High
Medium
Low
High
*Medium
Low
*Yes
No
Implementation
Capacity
High
*Medium
Low
*High
Medium
Low
*High
Medium
Low
*High
Medium
Low
*Yes
No
Environmental
Sustainability
Cost
Catchment Management – DEA
NRM Project land user incentives
programme in Ward 14
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Installation of solar water heaters
*Yes
No
Benefit
WATER AND SANITATION
Rangelands for water access,
sanitation and hygiene (WASH)
No regrets
Climate Change Response Project
Robustness
Vulnerability
hotspots
Table 29: Multi-criterion matrix for climate response project selection
High
*Medium
Low
High
*Medium
Low
*Long
Medium
Short
*Long
Medium
Short
*Yes
No
*Yes
No
*Yes
No
*Yes
No
Yes
*No
*High
Medium
Low
Long
*Medium
Short
*Yes
No
*Yes
No
*Yes
No
*High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
*Long
Medium
Short
Long
Medium
Short
*Yes
No
*Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
*Yes
No
Yes
No
For the categories ‘vulnerability hotspots’, ‘no regrets measures’, ‘environmental sustainability’, ‘opportunity’, and ‘social acceptability’ the project evaluator give yes or no
answers. The more yes answers a project receives, the more viable and likely to succeed in the long term it will be. For ‘robustness’, ‘benefit levels’, and ‘implementation
capacity’ a 3 point sliding scale from low through medium to high is used. High ratings are more desirable, and medium to low ratings may indicate significant implementation
barriers. The categories ‘cost’ and ‘timeframes’ also have 3 point sliding scales, but are more descriptive and may have less influence on decision-making regarding project
viability and responsiveness. Some projects are necessarily more expensive and longer term than others.
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5.6 Resources for Implementation
Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of disasters
in some regions. More and more people and assets are being exposed to
disasters. Losses are already estimated at over $100 billion a year globally
with mortality concentrated in developing countries. Older people,
disabled people, women and children are often worst hit and disasters can
delay people’s escape from poverty and strain national budgets. Yet
international finance largely supports the response to disasters. Climate
finance presents a new opportunity to reduce future climate-related
disaster risk, such as through early warning systems, coastal infrastructure,
and information systems.
While existing legislation does provide an overarching mandate for
municipalities to address sustainability broadly, this is neither a strong nor
a clear mandate in terms of addressing climate change specifically. This is
complicated by the fact that there are currently no dedicated budgets for
climate change response at the local level (Ziervogel et al, 2014, and
Ziervogel and Parnell, 2012). Although there are processes at the national
level to address this, these have not yet solidified into dedicated funding
streams, agreed-upon key performance areas, and adapted political and
bureaucratic infrastructure.
One way in which this can be addressed is by looking to the national level
for clear requirements for local government action on climate change and
how to access funding for this. This could include lobbying National
Treasury for dedicated local adaptation finance through the Government
Technical Adaptation Centre and communicating lessons learned to inform
resource allocation in DEA’s Natural Resource Management programmes
and Long Term Adaptation Policy development processes.
At the local level, the ANDM can address perceived climate response
funding gaps by considering existing budget streams and project types in a
way that considers effective climate change response planning. Re-thinking
typical sources of local government funding for service delivery, such as
equitable share, public works, conditional grants, and municipal
infrastructure grants to support climate change adaptation and mitigation,
is critical. With good planning and a sound understanding of the potential
climate related risks the ANDM is facing, these funds can be effectively
used to implement climate resilient service delivery and capacity building
projects at the local level, and using existing resources.
The purpose of this section is to provide guidance on additional financial
resources that could be utilised to assist with financing and developing
necessary skills for the implementation of the climate change adaptation
and mitigation projects outlined in this strategy. A suite of ‘green funds’
have been identified that the municipality could apply to for project
specific funding.
To access these additional funds, the ANDM will like need to develop
internal capacities in proposal writing and grant administration.
Developing this capacity must be a priority if the ANDM hopes to resource
the response actions required. Working with partners in National and
Provincial government departments, NGOs, and the private sector will also
support with this while as the ANDM develops internal capacity.
5.6.1 International Resources
The World Bank Climate Investment Funds (CIFs)
The CIFs help developing countries reduce their GHG emissions and
progress toward low-emissions and climate-resilient development
pathways. US$8.1 billion has been pledged to-date by 14 countries.
Funding is allocated through the four mechanisms, the Clean Technology
Fund (representing 69% of funds), the Forest Investment Program, the
Pilot Program for Climate Resilience, and the Scaling Up Renewable Energy
in Low Income Countries Program. In South Africa the funds have
supported development of projects from both the private and public
sector, including energy efficiency programmes, an energy acceleration
programme, and renewable energy support projects.
The Global Environmental Facility (GEF)
The GEF is a consortium of over 183 international institutions, civil society
organisations and the private sector that seek to address global
81
environmental issues. The GEF has provided funds for more than 20 years
to many developing countries to support activities related to biodiversity,
climate change, land degradation, and waste in the context of human
development. Funds are channeled through various mechanisms such as
the Small Grants Programme (SGP), the Special Climate Change Fund, and
national programmes administered through entities like the Development
Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA).
The SCCF provides support for long- and short-term adaptation efforts and
technology transfer in all developing country Parties to the UNFCCC with
cumulative pledges totaling US$348.99 million
Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF)
CEPF is a joint initiative of Conservation International, the Global
Environment Facility, the Government of Japan, the John D. and Catherine
T.MacArthur Foundation and the World Bank. In South Africa, CEPF has
grants available for the three-biodiversity hotspots including the
Pondoland-Albany hotspot in which the ANDM is located.
Many of the strategic directions guiding CEPF’s approach relate to
innovative private sector and community involvement in conserving
landscapes, expanding protected area corridors through public-privatecommunal partnerships in the priority areas, engaging key industrial
sectors in meeting conservation objectives, retaining and restoring critical
biodiversity in areas under greatest land-use pressure, and mainstreaming
conservation priorities into land-use planning and policymaking.
Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) support
programme
GIZ is a German-funded development cooperation, supporting the German
Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear
Safety. Its focus areas include rural development, environment and climate
change. The GIZ has been working on a number of climate support
programmes in South Africa focused on the development and
implementation of environmental policies. Most recently the programme
has supported the development of sectoral GHG reduction targets for
South Africa as well as the LTAS. They are also in the process of supporting
a green economy and finance project that will be implemented under the
Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA).
https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/17807.html
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
USAID supports various international initiatives including environment and
climate change programmes. In South Africa, the USAID has recently
started working on the Low Emissions Development Project. The project
will kick off towards the end of 2015. In addition, USAID in partnership
with US EPA’s Global Methane Initiative (GMI), has been supporting
mitigation centred projects focusing on reducing methane emissions in
critical sectors including waste management, transport, and energy.
KfW Development Bank
KfW have been considering a number of projects looking to support
renewable energy initiatives and address energy efficiency in South Africa.
KfW Development Bank is supporting the construction of South Africa's
first solar power tower capable of providing base load energy. Also, KfW is
promoting the electrification of rural villages which are so isolated that it is
too expensive to link them to the national power grid.
Green Climate Fund (GCF)
The GCF focuses on sustainable development and supporting a shift
towards low carbon economies and climate resilient development
pathways. They provide financial support to developing countries to limit
or reduce their GHG emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate
change.
Taking into account the needs of those developing countries particularly
vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, the GCF has
developed guidelines that assist in the application of case-by-case financial
terms and conditions. In applying these guidelines, the GCF has identified
criteria for determining the levels of concessionality for projects
implemented by public sector entities in order to ensure that the terms of
82
the Fund’s different instruments are economically and financially
appropriate for the project or program, country, or vulnerable community.
5.6.3 National Resources
The South African Green Fund
The GCF Board offers financial support on a competitive basis to
developing countries based on their impact potential. In South Africa the
fund will be channeled through implementing entities on behalf of DEA.
The DBSA and SANBI have applied for accreditation as these entities and
their applications are currently under review.
Global Adaptation Fund (AF)
The AF was established to support developing countries particularly
vulnerable to the effects climate change. To date, the AF has spent over
US$ 318 million supporting over 44 countries. Typically, they work through
government departments and government parastatals acting as AF
implementing agents. In South Africa, SANBI is the implementing agent. It
is currently implementing a Small Grants Facility programme in Limpopo
and the Northern Cape, and an infrastructure and disaster management
projects in Kwazulu-Natal.
5.6.2 Southern African Development Community (SADC)
TerrAfrica
TerrAfrica is an African-driven global partnership program to scale up
sustainable land and water management across sectors in 23 Sub-Saharan
African countries. The partnership supports this effort by reinforcing
investments, institutions and information at country and regional levels.
Partners are financing a range of activities to the total value of well over $2
billion in active and pipeline projects as well as analytical and advisory
services.
In response to the national challenge for both emissions reductions and
increased job creation, the DEA has established a Green Fund to support
the transition to a low carbon economy whilst delivering high impact socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits. DBSA is the implementing
agency. With an initial allocation of R800 million, the Fund provides
catalytic finance supporting national policy priorities and sectors that show
high impact potential for scale up. Projects include green town and cities,
low carbon economy, and environmental and natural resource
management. The fund mainly focuses on promoting innovative and high
impact green programmes and projects, reinforcing climate policy
objectives through green interventions, building an evidence base for the
expansion of the green economy, and attracting additional resources to
support South Africa’s green economy development.
Industrial Development Corporation (IDC)
The IDC is mandated to promote economic growth and industrial
development in South Africa. It provides project finance for private
companies operating in the municipal space. The IDC has supported
projects working on efficient lighting, public transport, and waste to
energy programmes with private sector participation.
Natural Resources Management (NRM) and Expanded Public Works
Programmes (EPWP)
The NRM and EPWP’s are initiated by the DEA in 1994. They are aimed at
addressing unemployment through inclusive economic growth and
working with communities to identify local work opportunities that will
also directly benefit the wider communities. The programmes are centered
on environmental rehabilitation, environmental protection, and socioeconomic development for local communities.
83
Environmental Protection and Infrastructure Programme (EPIP)
New financial instruments
The EPIP has been implemented by the DEA since 1999. Since then the
programme has evolved and grown from a budget of R75 million in 2000 to
more than R750 million today. Over the years the programmes has
successfully developed projects through Working for the Coast, Greening
and Open Space Management, People and Parks, Working on Waste,
Working for Land, Working for Wetlands, Working for Wildlife, and Youth
Environmental Services.
In addition to grant funding, loans, capacity building support, and publicprivate partnerships described above, the ANDM could also consider new
financial instruments to improve natural resource management, one of the
critical climate resilience activities in the ANDM.
WWF Nedbank Green Trust
The Green Trust, initiated in 1990, is aimed at supporting communitybased nature conservation programmes in South Africa. The Trust has
significant national experience and networks that could be drawn upon to
support renewable energy developers and create opportunities for
sustainable one-off investments in Bio Energy Plantations.
5.6.4 Local Government Support
International Council for Local Environment Initiatives
ICLEI is a global network that supports local government in developing
sustainable futures. ICLEI’s Local Economic Development (LED) programme
is looking to facilitate LED work in a number of selected municipalities in
South Africa.
South African Local Government Association (SALGA)
The South African Local Government Association has initiated a
“Businesses-Adopt-a-Municipality Project”. This initiative is aimed at
building and strengthening relationships between government
departments, private sector and state owned entities towards supporting
vulnerable municipalities through skill development. SALGA is also looking
at metros and secondary cities to partner with and support smaller
municipalities. MISA (COGTA) has started to deploy skilled staff to priority
municipalities to assist in developing various skills.
The ANDM, as it is home to a significant water catchment, could explore
opportunities for Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) for water. For
example, money for alien clearing and rangeland management, which
improves water flows and reduces erosion and sedimentation
downstream, could be included into water resource management and
water pricing. A water pricing strategy amenable to this is approved now
by parliament. Environmental subsidies could be implemented in the short
term to encourage action now, with PES as the long term goal.
In order to PES systems to work well, it will depend on the ability of the
ANDM to operationalise tradable permits and quotas to base price based
instruments on, as well as property rights based instruments based on
ownership of the resource, or at least clear user rights.
Eco-labelling and certification for agricultural products produced in
sustainable ways, contributing to climate resilience, will encourage land
users to implement sustainable practices so long as there are reliable
markets for the products, preferably paying premium prices.
Finally, legal and even voluntary instruments can be used to promote
sustainable land use practices. Consistent enforcement of legal liability, as
well as non-compliance charges, will force improved practice quickly.
Where capacity is low, or relationships could be damaged by a legalistic
approach, slower progress can be made through voluntary environmental
agreements. These voluntary agreements typically involved incentivising
land users to implement better practice in exchange for some support.
Support could include in kind contributions, tax breaks, cash payments,
training, or market access, among a host of other possibilities.
84
5.6.5 Conclusion
This section has outlined some of the funding opportunities available to
support the ANDM with the implementation of this climate change
response strategy. International, regional and national funding
programmes offer opportunities for the ANDM to source the resources
both to capacitate municipal workers and the funding for projects which
are appropriate to the local needs of the municipality.
Significant training and capacity development of the ANDM personnel
could also be achieved through mentoring programmes, learning
exchanges with other District municipalities, and secondments of human
resources from partners or other departments for dedicated climate
change posts within critical departments.
85
5.7 Communications, Public Awareness, and
Education
The communication, awareness raising, capacity building and education
package is the cornerstone of work done under the climate change
response action plan. Most mitigation and adaptation projects require
changes in behaviour, mindsets, and activities in order to be successful.
The South African National Climate Change Response Strategy (2004) and
the Eastern Cape Climate Change Response Strategy (DEDEA 2011) contain
comprehensive communication, public awareness, and education
strategies, with which the ANDM should align their activities and which are
not replicated here. The ANDM may also find the communications,
education, and awareness programmes strategy from the Government of
Kenya National Climate Change Response Strategy (2010) useful. The
additional tools and products provided here are intended to supplement
the EC strategy, and provide practical resources to enable implementation
locally.
Communications materials for government
The executive summary of this document is intended as a supporting
communication product for decision-makers at various levels. It
summarises the main findings of the response strategy in a shorter, but
still visual, format intended to directly information District and Local
government decisions in the ANDM and integrated development planning
and can be used in capacity development for new officials.
In addition to the formal executive summary, we have prepared an ANDM
Climate Change Strategy for Decision-Makers document, with sectorlinked factsheets, for more general communications with political and
community stakeholders in the ANDM. This pamphlet is the primary
communications product for decision-makers in local government in the
ANDM, setting targets and making recommendations as to what is needed
in terms of response, by local government, individuals, and communities.
Part of the ANDM’s role as the District authority is to support the local
municipalities to respond to climate change. The best way to do this is to
facilitate the mainstreaming of climate change into all the day-to-day
activities, projects, and plans of the local municipalities. The Department
of Environmental Affairs, Department of Cooperative Governance, and the
South African Local Government Association have already designed a
comprehensive resource specifically for mainstreaming climate change and
climate change response into local government integrated development
planning processes. The Let’s Respond Toolkit: Integrating Climate Change
Risks and Opportunities into Municipal Planning (DEA, 2012) provides a
Guide and Toolkit with supporting information and interactive exercises for
mainstreaming climate change into local government processes in each
phase of the Integrated Development Plan review cycle, a planning process
familiar to all South African municipal officials and politicians. This Guide is
designed to take municipal leaders, both elected and corporate, through
the necessary steps towards climate responsive planning and provides a
set of practical tools to support the process. The Toolkit can be found free
online at https://www.google.co.za/webhp?sourceid=chromeinstant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=lets%20respond%20toolkit.
CSA has worked with partners in SALGA and Indigo development and
change to develop a set of facilitation resources that support the
application of the Let’s Respond Toolkit through facilitated and interactive
processes. This resource is attached as Annex 7.
Communications materials for schools and communities
To enable detailed communication of the climate change challenge and
response options to schools and communities, we have prepared a set of
roughly 30 cartoons summarising critical climate change adaptation and
mitigation activities that individuals can undertake in support of the wider
ANDM climate change response strategy. Most of the cartoons are
accompanied by a comprehensive 1 page illustrated lesson plan which
teachers and community outreach workers can use to engage communities
to build their capacity on climate change and what they can do in
response, in a fun and interactive way. Each lesson plan contains simple
background information on the climate change or the climate change
response issue covered in the cartoon, a few research questions for
students and communities to engage with to broaden their knowledge, an
activity to do together to deepen the learning, and ideas on how anyone
86
can get involved and do more. Figure 26 to Figure 29 provide 2 examples
of these products. All of the cartoons and lesson plans are contained in
Annex 6. Lesson plans are provided in Annex 6 as both an illustrated PDF
for use ‘as is’ and as a word document to enable revisions and translation
as required.
It is recommended that the ANDM make us of other media channels, such
as radio, newspapers, and television, opportunistically to spread their
climate change messages. For example, after a flood event, a well-timed
press release could raise awareness around increasing risks of flood as a
consequence of climate change.
Finally, a crucial part of communications, awareness raising, capacity
building, and education for climate change response is truly participatory
stakeholder engagement. Stakeholder engagement for climate responsive
planning in the ANDM must take place.
Communities must be engaged and participatory methods provide a
wonderful opportunity for deeper learning through interaction. Indigo
Development and Change have produced a comprehensive participatory
adaptation handbook (Oettle et al 2014) along with a set of facilitation
cards (Koelle et al 2014) for experiential learning for adaptation. Compiled
by practitioners working with local communities to respond to climate
change, the resource provides plenty of practical tools, interactive
exercises, participatory processes, insights and games for helping people to
adapt more effectively. These resources are available free online at
www.indigo-dc.org.
87
Figure 25: Ug Cartoon number 7 about one way to conserve fresh water
Figure 26: Ug cartoon number 33 about turning off the things that you don’t need so you can save energy and water and
contribute to saving the planet
88
Figure 27: Ug cartoon lesson plan which goes with Cartoon number 7 shown above, focused on conserving fresh water
89
Figure 28: Ug Cartoon lesson plan which goes with Cartoon number 33, focused on switching off all the things you’re not
using, to save energy and water.
90
Section 6: Monitoring and Evaluation
6.1 Introduction
The overarching objectives of Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) are to
track the transition to a low carbon and climate resilient ANDM. Here, we
provide tools for tracking the number and effectiveness of response
measures implemented over time, increasing the co-ordination of climate
change response measures and M&E; demonstrating the impact of
response measures to donors, partners, and communities; and increasing
the transparency of finance flows relating to climate responses. The M&E
system allows for both quantitative and qualitative reporting on project
implementation. It is aligned with the national M&E system.
These tools include:
 M&E indicators for tracking observed changes in the climate as
well as progress in climate change adaptation. This is based on an
operationalisation on the vulnerability assessment index (CSA
2015) specifically designed for the ANDM, cross checked against
DEA’s draft M&E indicators at the national level.
 A municipal carbon footprint calculator for tracking progress in
reducing the ANDM’s GHG emissions
The challenges inherent in a climate change monitoring and evaluation
system include planning for uncertainty. There are a range of uncertainties
which make it difficult to determine whether a proposed adaptation action
will be effective in the longer term. These include future emissions
scenarios, technological advancements, and future changes in current
socio-economic conditions. Also, particularly where response actions
prioritise no-regrets measures and activities with multiple social and
economic benefits, attributing a certain climate change response activity
to a prescribed outcome can be difficult. Making a direct causal link
between a climate change response measure and attributable outcomes
can be difficult for both adaptation and mitigation. In the case of
adaptation, this may be due to long timescales and uncertainties, but also
because a range of drivers other than climate also shape the resilience or
vulnerability of complex interlinked socio-economic, infrastructure, and
environmental systems.
Adaptation efforts seek to support ongoing development in the face of
changing environmental conditions, and this evolving baseline of climate
hazards and risks presents a challenge for evaluations. Difficulty also lies in
developing comprehensive and accurate baselines for energy consumption
and GHG emissions, as data collection and reporting takes place through a
number of stakeholders and at different geographical scales. Responses
are often processual rather than outcomes-based and it can be difficult to
select indicators that can definitively measure success, or even to
determine what constitutes success.
Finally, measuring the impact of response measure over long timescales is
necessary. We may not know what would have happened in the absence
of response measures implemented, or see the impacts of activities now
for many decades to come.
6.2 Simple climate response indicators for local
government
Building resilience
-
Portion of EbA priority areas under protection and conservation
management, or effectively protected through zoning, spatially
explicit development restrictions, or inclusion in other planning
processes
-
Percentage service delivery at the household level across the 5 key
service delivery areas – sanitation, water, electricity, housing, and
education
Transitioning to a low carbon economy
-
Number of buildings or households where renewable energy
technologies have been installed
91
-
Amount of waste to landfills
-
Number of jobs created in natural resource management
programmes that contribute to the maintenance and restoration of
critical ecological infrastructure that provide adaptation services
Capacity building
-
Number of climate change education and community awareness
programmes implemented
-
Number of officials trained on climate change
Robust infrastructure
-
Number of people implementing water conservation practices in
households
-
Number of new developments in high risk areas
-
Number of local enterprises developed as part of the Industrial
Developmental Zone
-
Number of bridges, roads, and dams impacted by extreme weather
events including wash aways and soil erosion
Making informed decisions
-
-
Number of IDPs that integrate climate change into the vision,
mission, and status quo sections
Amount of budget allocated to climate resilient projects
6.3 Tracking Adaptation – operationalising the
ANDM Vulnerability Index
As part of the ANDM Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, upon
which this Response Strategy is based, a Vulnerability Index for the ANDM
was developed. This index was specifically designed to assist ANDM
decision makers and managers with the rapid assessment of the state of
climate change vulnerability in the District, and to track change in this state
over time. Based on data the ANDM currently collects or has relatively easy
access to through the standard national databases, the index provides a
repeatable exercise tracking vulnerability to climate change over time.
The Index considers ecological vulnerability, in terms of the changing
nature of exposure to climate change hazards over time as climate change
advances and the sensitivity of the natural environment, on which
livelihoods in the ANDM directly and indirectly depend, to these changes.
Also considered are socio-economic vulnerabilities, such as the percentage
of the population, and their spatial location, with low levels of general
resilience or who live in climate sensitive areas, as well as the capacity of
local institutions and government officials to respond effectively to climate
change. Table 25, taken from CSA (2015), summarises each indicator
applied in the Vulnerability Index, for each of the parameters, exposure,
sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
Each time the assessment of climate vulnerability in the ANDM is run by
populating these indicators with the available information, a numerical
vulnerability score is generated. Each sub-indicator is scored out of 5, with
1 being the MOST desirable and 5 being the LEAST desirable. The total
vulnerability score for the ANDM is calculated out 5, by equally weighting
all indicators and finding the average be category, and then the average
among all the categories.
Vulnerability in the ANDM has been calculated as 2.6 in the medium term,
and 3.5 in the longer term (CSA 2015). Here, we calculate that the current
picture of vulnerability achieves a score of 2.5. The climate change
response actions suggested in this Response Strategy are intended to
92
move the municipality closer and closer to a lower vulnerability score, of 2
or, ideally, even 1 over time.
Table 30: Sub-indicators for ecological and socio-economic vulnerability are used
in the Vulnerability Index to assess levels of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity relative to climate change threats faced in the ANDM (from CSA 2015).
Repeating the assessment of climate change vulnerability in the ANDM
using the Vulnerability Index every 5 years will enable the municipality to
keep a reasonable eye on changes in the climate risk profile and socioeconomic and ecological vulnerabilities in the area.
Parameter
Exposure
Lower future vulnerability scores will indicate that the municipality is
adapting effectively, either through healthier ecosystem, stronger
institutions, or more resilient communities, or some combination of these
factors.
Higher future vulnerability scores will indicate that the municipality is not
adapting effectively. This could be because some of the response measures
implemented turned out to be ineffective, or even maladaptive, other
drivers of vulnerability such as poverty and capacity gaps were not
effectively overcome, or that climate change impacts were more serious
than expected.
We recommend that the Vulnerability Index Framework, shown on the
next pages, be completed every 5 years to include up to date information
and track change in each of the indicators. Rather than in the vulnerability
assessment, where the medium and long term vulnerability was calculated
by applying modelling techniques, we suggest that the framework be
applied using current data, for a snapshot of ‘climate vulnerability now’,
taken every 5 year period for comparison. Change should be measured
against the 2015 baseline.
In order to complete this monitoring exercise every 5 years, the
municipality must collect and maintain up to date data on temperature
and rainfall; occurrence, magnitude, location, and impact of extreme
weather; changes in sea level; biome distribution; ecological infrastructure;
location of settlements, poverty levels indicated by income, education,
dependency ratios, access to services, and levels of direct dependence on
the natural environment; service delivery backlogs; and internal climate
change capacity.
Sensitivity
Adaptive
Capacity
Ecological vulnerability
Sub-indicator 1: Change in
temperature and rainfall
Sub-indicator 2: Increase in
frequency and magnitude of
extreme events – drought
and flood
Sub-indicator 3: Increase in
frequency and magnitude of
extreme events –sea level
rise
Sub-indicator 1: Change in
stability of climatic envelopes
associated with particular
biomes
Sub-indicator 1: % area of
natural features supporting
landscape resilience to
climate change
Socio-economic vulnerability
Sub-indicator 1: % population living
in the least stable areas according to
the climatic envelope stability maps
Sub-indicator 1: Total direct
dependence on natural resources as
a % of the population
Sub-indicator 1: Household adaptive
capacity measured through a
composite general poverty index, as
a % of households
Sub-indicator 2: Local Institutions
supporting climate resilience
(effectiveness of service delivery)
Sub-indicator 3: Local government
officials’ perception of their current
capacity to respond to climate
change
This system may be difficult for local government to implement alone.
Index based monitoring systems could be implemented in partnership with
SARVA centres at universities and/or with District or Provincial disaster
management centres. It is one methodology in a range of monitoring
techniques the ANDM can use for tracking climate change responsiveness.
93
Table 31: Framework for assessing climate change vulnerability in the ANDM. When completed every 5 years, this data will inform the municipality both about the rate of change in the climate
and related climate change impacts and how well the municipality and its residents are adapting to climate change
Vulnerability Type
Parameter
Sub-Indicator
Change in temperature and
rainfall
Change in frequency/ severity of
extreme events
Ecological
Data Source
Scoring method
Weather station
observations
1= status quo, temperature and rainfall have not
changed
2 = temperature has increased less than 3°,
rainfall has not changed or has increased
3 = temperature has increased less than 3°,
rainfall has decreased
4 = temperature has increased more than 3°,
rainfall has not changed or has increased
5=
temperature has increased more than 3°, rainfall
has decreased
2
Weather station
observations
1= status quo, flood and drought risk profile has
not changed
2 = the frequency or severity of one of the risks
has increased a little
3=
the frequency and severity of both risks has
increased a little
4
= the frequency or severity of one of the risks has
increased a lot
5 = the
frequency and severity of both risks has increased
a lot
2
Exposure
Sea level rise
Coastal monitoring
1= there is no land lying below 5.5m above sea
level
2 = <2% of the land in the ANDM lies below 5.5m
above sea level
3=
between 2 and 4% of the land in the ANDM lies
below 5.5m above sea level
4 = between 4 and 6% of the land in the ANDM
lies below 5.5m above sea level
5 = >6% of the land in the ANDM lies below 5.5m
above sea level
Score
Average
score per
category
Average ANDM
vulnerability
score
2.5
2
2
94
Vulnerability Type
Parameter
Sensitivity
Sub-Indicator
Data Source
Socio-economic
Score
1= status quo, the boundaries of biomes have not
shifted or have shifted by less than 20%
2 = between 20 and 40% of biome boundaries
have shifted
3 = between 40 and 60% of biome boundaries
have shifted
4 = between 60 and 80% of biome boundaries
have shifted
5 = more
than 80% of biome boundaries have shifted
1
1
% area of climate resilient
natural features
Ecological
monitoring,
ecological
infrastructure
mapping
1= climate resilient natural features cover more
than 80% of land area
2 = climate resilient natural features cover
between 60 and 80% of the land area
3 = climate resilient natural features cover
between 40 and 60% of the land area
4 = climate resilient natural features cover
between 20 and 40% of the land area
5 = climate resilient natural features cover less
than 20% of the land area
2
2
% population affected by
natural disasters
ANDM
Environmental
Management Plan location of
settlements relative
to areas where
natural disasters
occur
1= less than 20% of the population is regularly
affected by natural disasters
2 = between 20 and 40% of the population is
regularly affected by natural disasters
3 = between 40 and 60% of the population is
regularly affected by natural disasters
4 = between 60 and 80% of the population is
regularly affected by natural disasters
5 = More than 80% of the population is regularly
affected by natural disasters
5
Census - location of
settlements relative
to areas where
biomes are shifting
1= less than 20% of the population live in areas
where biomes have shifted
2 = between 20 and 40% of the population live in
areas where biomes have shifted
3 = between 40 and 60% of the population live in
areas where biomes have shifted
4 = between 60 and 80% of the population live in
areas where biomes have shifted
5 = More than 80% of the population live in areas
where biomes have shifted
2
Change in biome distribution
Ecological monitoring
Ecological
Adaptive
Capacity
Scoring method
Average
score per
category
2.5
4
Exposure
% population living in unstable
environments
Average ANDM
vulnerability
score
95
Vulnerability Type Parameter Sub-Indicator
Sensitivity
Data Source
Scoring method
Score
% population directly
dependent on natural resources
Census - number and
location of people
directly dependent
on natural sources of
water, fuel, and
building materials
1= less than 20% of the population is directly
dependent on the environment for survival
2 = between 20 and 40% of the population is
directly dependent on the environment for
survival
3 = between 40 and 60% of the population is
directly dependent on the environment for
survival
4 = between 60 and 80% of the population is
directly dependent on the environment for
survival
5 = More than 80% of the population is directly
dependent on the environment for survival
3
% of population living in poverty
Census - proportion
of low income
household,
dependency ratio
(number of
dependent per
earner in a
household)
1= less than 20% of the population is living in
poverty
2 = between 20 and 40% of the population is living
in poverty
3 = between 40 and 60% of the population is living
in poverty
4 = between 60 and 80% of the population is living
in poverty
5 = More than 80% of the population is living in
poverty
3
Effectiveness of local
government service delivery
ANDM Integrated
Development Plan,
Census - service
delivery backlog
records for water,
sanitation,
electrification,
education, and
housing (equally
weighted)
1= ANDM has achieved more than 80% service
delivery averaged across the 5 sectors
2 = ANDM has achieved between 60 and 80 %
service delivery averaged across the 5 sectors
3 = ANDM has achieved between 40 and 60%
service delivery averaged across the 5 sectors
4 = ANDM has achieved between 20 and 40%
service delivery averaged across the 5 sectors
5 = ANDM has achieved less than 20% service
delivery across the 5 sectors
Socio-economic
Adaptive
Capacity
Average
score
per
category
3
Average ANDM
vulnerability
score
2.5
3
4
96
Vulnerability Type
Socio-economic
Parameter
Adaptive
Capacity
Sub-Indicator
Level of local government
climate response capacity
Data Source
Scoring method
Situational
Analysis and
Needs
Assessment
Survey*
1= ANDM has achieved more than 80% 'yes'
answers on the climate capacity questionnaire
2 = ANDM has achieved between 60 and 80 %
'yes' answers on the climate capacity
questionnaire
3 = ANDM has achieved between 40 and 60% 'yes'
answers on the climate capacity questionnaire
4 = ANDM has achieved between 20 and 40% 'yes'
answers on the climate capacity questionnaire
5 = ANDM has achieved less than 20% 'yes'
answers on the climate capacity questionnaire
Score
3
Average
score per
category
Average ANDM
vulnerability
score
2.5
* available in full as Appendix 7
97
6.4 Tracking Mitigation
One of the most immediate objectives of the UNFCCC is to ensure that all
countries take reasonable actions to assist in stabilising GHG
concentrations in the atmosphere to a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system. To facilitate the
realisation of this objective, the South African government has developed
tools to monitor and report on the country’s GHG emissions to the
UNFCCC Secretariat through National Inventory Reports (NIRs). For local
government integration, the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA)
has championed the development of the Lets Respond Tool Kit that is
aimed at supporting local government in integrating climate change risk
and opportunities to municipal planning. As part of the tool kit, a GHG
emissions calculator was developed for tracking GHG emissions at the local
municipal level (see Figure 25 taken from Lets Respond Tookit DEA 2012).
includes calculations for the transport sector taking into account all liquid
fuels that are used in the ANDM. It also considers the waste management
sector, and gives an analysis of emissions from both solid waste and
wastewater treatment.
Figure 25 shows the GHG emissions profile of the ANDM based on the
figures that we have inserted. Annex 9 is the excel spreadsheet containing
all the calculations, where municipal officials can simply add in their values.
We have revised the tool slightly to include GHG emissions from waste
burning.
The GHG calculator was specifically developed to assist municipalities to
identify where and how much energy is consumed in their jurisdictional
area and assess the related GHG emissions challenges and opportunities.
GHG Emissions Calculator will, at first application, provide the ANDM with
a baseline energy consumption and GHG emissions picture for the District
and local municipalities. This tool provides an easy to use repeatable
exercise that will enable ANDM to track their GHG emissions in their
jurisdiction over time. Emissions calculations can be done at municipal
level and later translated to District level. Municipal officials are able to
collect data from various sources indicated in the spreadsheet. They will be
able to get an estimate of the amount of GHG emissions in tonnes
CO2e/capita. In addition, the GHG Calculator provides a clear analysis of
energy consumption per energy source and CO2 e contributions from those
sources.
The tool has fully integrated an approach that will successfully track GHG
emissions from the main C02e emitting sectors in the District. It considers
GHG emissions from the energy sector looking specifically at energy
sources that are commonly used in the District - paraffin, wood, coal, and
bulk supply electricity distributed by Eskom and others. The calculator also
98
6. Coal data: Unless you have a local coal yard, or a local coal/coke supplier willing to provide you with information, coal use data is very hard to come by due to the coal
sector being unregulated.
7. Solid waste and waste water: Emissions figures are generated automatically from the population figure, based on estimated per capita averages. If your municipality has
real figures, these estimations can be replaced.
8. Only fill in the orange cells (existing figures in the table are dummy figures for table purposes). Where no data exists or no fuel of that sort is present, fill in zero. Do not
forget to enter the POPULATION figure at the bottom.
Greenhouse gas data and calculations
Fuel
Unit Quantity
Suggested Data Sources
Conversion
factor
(GJ/unit)
Electricity (munic)
Electricity (Eskom)
Paraffin
200 000
kWh
100 000
litre
100 000
litre
100 000
m3
100 000
kg
100 000
litre
100 000
litre
100 000
litre
100 000
kg
100 000
kg
100 000 Source: Local surveys (may be difficult to obtain)
LPG
Natural gas
Coal
Petrol (transport)
Diesel (transport)
Heavy furnace oil
Coke
Wood
Aviation gasoline
litre
Jet fuel
litre
Maritime fuels
Source: Local distributor - municipality (in tariff
categories)
Source: Local distributor - Eskom (in tariff
categories)
Source: Municipal Liquid Fuel Data File (SAPIA)
tool OR oil companies
Source: Municipal Liquid Fuel Data File tool OR
direct from oil companies, Afrox (may be
difficult to obtain)
Source: Egoli/Sasol gas (if applicable)
Source: Local merchants (may be difficult to
obtain)
Source: Municipal Liquid Fuel Data File tool OR
oil companies, Tansport Dept
Source: Municipal Liquid Fuel Data File tool OR
oil companies, Tansport Dept
Source: Municipal Liquid Fuel Data File tool oR
oil companies
Source: Local suppliers
kWh
litre
Solid waste (landfill)
Waste water
treatment
Source: Airports authority, SAPIA/Municipal
100 000
Liquid Fuel Data File tool (if applicable)
Source: Airports authority, SAPIA/Municipal
100 000
Liquid Fuel Data File tool (if applicable)
Source: Ports authority, SAPIA/Municipal Liquid
100 000
Fuel Data File tool (if applicable)
Can be estimates at 0.76 tons CO2e/capita
GJ
(GJ/unit
conversion factor
x quantity)
Tonnes CO 2 e
Conversion
factor
(CO 2 /GJ conversion factor
x GJ)
(tonnes CO2/GJ)
0,0036
720
0,2861
206
0,0036
360
0,2861
103
0,0370
3700
0,0697
258
0,0267
2670
0,0608
162
0,0410
4100
0,0491
201
0,0243
2430
0,1012
246
0,0342
3420
0,0666
228
0,0381
3810
0,0709
270
0,0416
4160
0,0714
297
0,0279
2790
0,1141
318
0,0170
1700
0,0000
0
0,0339
3390
0,0650
220
0,0343
3430
0,0734
252
0,0381
3810
0,0715
272
0,76
380
0,033
17
Can be estimates at 0.033 tons CO2e/capita/yr
TOTAL tonnes CO2 e
3 430
500
Population
Tonnes CO 2 e/capita
6,9
Analysis
Emissions by fuel type
Energy consumption by fuel type
Jet fuel
9%
Electricity
(munic)
Electricity
2%
(Eskom)
1%
Maritime
fuels
Paraffin
9%
9%
LPG
7%
Aviation
gasoline
8%
Natural gas
10%
Wood
4%
Coal
6%
Coke
7%
Heavy
Diesel
furnace oil
(transport)
10%
9%
Solid waste
(landfill)
11%
Waste water
treatment
0%
Maritime
fuels
8%
Electricity
(munic)
6% Electricity
(Eskom)
3%
Paraffin
8%
LPG
5%
Jet fuel
7%
Aviation
gasoline
Wood
6%
0%
Petrol
(transport)
9%
Natural gas
6%
Coke
9%
Diesel
Heavy
furnace oil (transport)
8%
9%
Coal
7%
Petrol
(transport)
7%
Figure 29: Municipal Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Calculator (DEA 2012)
99
Section 7: Conclusion
It should also be noted that climate change science advances continuously,
and it may be necessary to update this strategy as our understanding of
climate change and its impacts improve over time.
The goal of a climate change response strategy is to highlight priorities and
enable actions that will reduce susceptibility to the impacts of climate
change.
In short, the actionable results and recommendations of this strategy
document are:
It is hoped that this technical report and supporting strategy provides
localised and ANDM-specific analysis, guidance and recommendations to
local decision makers and managers in the ANDM regarding the possible
impacts of climate change in the District as well as the spatial and
institutional priority areas in which ecosystem based, community based,
and infrastructural investments in adaptation and mitigation should be
concentrated.
The impacts of climate change are cross-cutting and thus require a crosscutting approach which will ensure that communities are able to withstand
the impacts of climate change and adapt to the possible futures. The rural
nature of the ANDM, high levels of direct dependency on local ecological
infrastructure, and high levels of poverty and unemployment make this
region an excellent candidate for specific, targeted ecosystem-based
adaptation actions, as well as a more general institutional shift towards an
increasingly more climate responsive district through capacity building,
service delivery and infrastructure development.
Efforts should be made to reduce socio-economic vulnerabilities and
increase institutional capacities. This is important as enhanced capacities
will result in an improvement in people’s wellbeing, as well as an improved
understanding of the importance of ecosystem services and natural
resources for the ANDM.
From chapter 2, temperature and rainfall projections




All climate models used predict increases in temperatures over
time. The increases in temperature become quite dramatic in the
longer term. Proactive adaptation measures to address heat
stress on livestock, people, and infrastructure will be no-regrets
investments
There is some variability in the models for predicting future
change in rainfall amounts and patterns as a result of climate
change, and overall changes in total mm are small. Changes in
total rainfall are unlikely but large and small infrastructure, from
houses to roads and dams, must be constructed taking into
account the full range of possible rainfall extremes in future.
Considering expected temperature increases, increased water
demand and evaporation can be expected regardless of the
direction of rainfall change. Agricultural activities, such as
watering livestock, dryland cropping for fodder, and irrigated
agriculture, as well as water supply and demand management,
must be planned to be as efficient as possible.
Increasing temperatures will lead to associated changes such as a
decrease in the number of frost days, important for excluding
trees and shrubs from grassland systems, and an increase in the
number of extreme heat days, potentially reducing livestock and
human productivity.
Although the current strategy represents a further step forward in our
understanding of appropriate climate change planning and response in the
ANDM, this information will need to be applied and integrated into the day
to day business of the ANDM.
100
From chapter 3, climate change risk assessment






Temperature increases present the greatest risk to the ANDM
Heat stress is likely to increase in future and affect agricultural
productivity – both livestock and crops – as well as human health,
well-being, and ability to work productively outdoors.
The ANDM’s unique Grassland Biome is highly vulnerable to
climate change and farmers and residents in these areas need to
be engaged to begin monitoring these sites, tracking change, and
preparing for biome shifts in these areas
Significant changes in total rainfall are unlikely. Bulk water supply
must be planned efficiently, but water provision will primarily be a
management issue
Extreme rainfall events are likely to increase in magnitude and
frequency. Disaster preparedness and disaster response for flood
events is critical, as is designing infrastructure to withstand high
magnitude rainfall events and take advantage of high water flows
for water storage
Sea level rise and storm surge risks on the coast are minimal and
restricted to relatively small areas
From chapter 4, greenhouse gas emissions inventory




There is limited industrial, transport, or even energy generation
and use in the District. The dominant sources of emissions are
ruminants and humans. Therefore, although total volumes are
low relative to the national, waste management and land uses are
the highest emitters in the ANDM
Address emissions from waste management through re-use,
recycling, and waste separation
Address emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses
through range management, ecological rehabilitation, soil
conservation, and carbon neutral forestry
Energy poverty in the ANDM is extreme. Without energy,
economic development will remain out of reach. Address energy
poverty through renewable energy at household and larger scales.
From chapter 5, integrated response action plan










Climate change is profoundly cross-cutting. Climate
responsiveness will require interlinked and interdependent
actions achieved through multiple strategic partnerships, across
scales and spheres of government, between actors in the public,
private and civil society sectors, and between researchers,
strategists and operational implementers
High priority ecological infrastructure for adaptation services
should be maintained in a natural or near-natural state through
conservation, biodiversity stewardship, restoration, and sound
management
Degraded areas important for ecosystem service delivery for
people should be actively rehabilitated to enhance their ability to
deliver climate related ecosystem services for adaptation in the
NDM
Enhance resilience by building the capacities of local communities
to understand, plan for, and respond to climate change related
threats to their health, well-being and livelihoods
Enhance resilience by eradicating poverty and providing access to
basic energy, water, housing, sanitation, education, and health
care across the board
Transition the ANDM to a low carbon economy by addressing
energy poverty using renewable energy, and building a green
economy focused on recycling, re-use, local production, and
energy efficiency
Change behaviour to increasing climate responsiveness through
education and awareness campaigns
Undertake truly integrated land use and development planning,
across sectors and with communities
Prioritise the highest value ecosystem based adaptation areas,
providing the biggest win for ANDM communities in terms of their
ability to provide ecosystem services that support climate change
adaptation, for conservation and restoration projects
In the energy sector, focus on low-carbon development pathways
and energy efficiency. The ANDM should lead by example and
101








retrofit municipal buildings to be more energy efficient and
incorporate renewable energy
In the solid waste management sector, strive to minimise waste
reaching landfills through reuse and recycling programmes and
separating organic and inorganic wastes for separate treatment
In the water sector, focus on efficient and effective water storage,
treatment, supply, and use technologies, reduce leaks and
wastage, and implement water demand management as well as
educational programmes on water conservation to reduce end
uses
In the transport sector, ensure that road infrastructure is
maintained and able to withstand high rainfall events. Also set
minimum efficiency standards for government fleet vehicles, and
enforce road worthiness of civilian vehicles
In the health sector, work with the ANDM to deliver adequate
water and sanitation and waste management services, educate
communities on health risks from climate change, and equip local
clinics with heat stress response equipment
In the infrastructure and service delivery sector, identify critical
infrastructure at risk from climate change, and consider climate
change impacts on surface water flows, as well as impacts on
ecological infrastructure, in the design specifications of any new
dams, roads, storm water systems, culverts and bridges
In the agriculture, forestry, and other land uses sector, adjust
agricultural practices to accommodate the opportunities and
challenges presented by climatic changes in temperature and
rainfall, and ensure that agricultural and forestry expansion plans
will not negatively impact on critical ecological infrastructure for
ecosystem services in the ANDM
In the biodiversity sector, identify and maintain natural sites that
contribute to ecosystem services for climate change adaptation in
the ANDM. Avoid developing infrastructure in river and wetland
buffers and along the coast, or at least do so with great care and
bearing the potential impacts of climate change in mind
In the tourism sector, plan infrastructure development so that
they are not at unnecessary risk of climate change, maintain
special natural environments that tourists come to see, and




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encourage tourism based livelihoods as an alternative to
agricultural livelihoods which may be increasingly at risk from
climate change
Evaluate each planned project in the ANDM according to the
project matrix on page 67
Creatively explore options to mobilise existing budgets in support
of climate prepared development in the ANDM, by mainstreaming
climate change awareness into all development activities
Build the internal capacity of the ANDM to apply for external
funding for special climate change response projects that are
needed in addition to the daily business of the municipality
Communicate climate change messages to decision-makers by
highlighting the cross-cutting nature of climate change impacts
and responses and the relevance to municipal mandates
Facilitate an on-going process of mainstreaming climate change
into all development planning
Practice truly engaged and meaningful stakeholder participation
with communities
Educate communities about climate change and how it is relevant
to their lives by translating the information into simple messages
From chapter 6, monitoring and evaluation
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It is critical to track the level of effort the municipality expends on
climate change response each year. This can be measured by
recording activities against a few simple indicators and reflecting
on these annually
It is critical to measure changes in the level of climate change
vulnerability in the ANDM over time to see if climate change
vulnerability is deepening or lessening. This can be achieved by
applying the vulnerability index every 5 years. This will require
either building the technical capacity of the ANDM internally
through a specialised unit or partnering with a university or other
institute
It is critical to measure changes in the ANDM’s emissions profile
over time. This can be achieved by applying the greenhouse gas
emissions calculator provided every 5 years
102
Changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to have direct impacts
people living in the ANDM and on the ability of the District and its local
municipalities to deliver sustainable basic infrastructure and services to all.
The predicted increases in temperature impact directly on human comfort,
health, and mortality, as well as agricultural productivity, and energy and
water demand. While total annual average rainfall will be similar in future,
changes in inter-annual rainfall patterns and an increase in heavy rainfall
events, could damage infrastructure, property, and agricultural assets, and
lead to water quality concerns, if poorly managed.
Agriculture is not directly the mandate of local government. It is a
provincial government responsibility. However, agriculture is the largest
land use in the ANDM and more than half of all households are involved in
agricultural activities. Local economic development activities often focus
on agriculture and many of the local municipalities have agricultural
development plans in place. The local government mandates to ensure
health, food security and poverty alleviation for people living in the ANDM
means that local government officials often have to consider agricultural
productivity and support infrastructure in their plans.
These climate change impacts on the water cycle may not impact on bulk
water supply and water availability as long as water-related ecological
infrastructure and formal bulk water supply infrastructure are well planned
and sustainably maintained. Rising temperatures alongside poor
management may result in increased water scarcity. If land degradation
and transformation in combination with poor planning proceeds, the
District may be at great risk of damage from flooding and soil erosion.
Climate already naturally defines and limits agricultural activities. As most
crop agriculture on household and commercial scales in the ANDM is not
irrigated, there is potential for significant disruption of agricultural
activities and food security in the district. Extensive livestock farming also
takes place and there is a chance that increasing temperatures could
reduce livestock productivity.
Flooding and soil erosion are important issues for the District because 99
567 out of 169 258 (59%) of households are to some degree dependent on
agriculture (StatsSa, Census 2011). Flood or erosion related damage to
crop field or rangelands could have a significant impact on local
agricultural livelihoods. Further, both can place infrastructure such as
roads and pipelines at risk, and can result in rapid sedimentation of water
supply dams.
Healthy, well-functioning ecosystems underpin social systems, particularly
in rural areas such as the ANDM where livelihoods are largely agricultural
and poverty and direct dependence on the environment for fuel, water,
and other materials is widespread. Climate change is likely to also impact
on ecosystems. The region’s major biomes may shift in response to climate
stimuli which may in turn affect ecological infrastructure habitats and
species. Specific biomes, e.g. the grasslands, are linked to distinct socialecological systems. Each has characteristic human livelihoods, distinctive
economic activities, and specific types of ecosystems. Beyond biodiversity
and ecosystem services, such structural disruption will have consequences
for agriculture.
Cross cutting impacts specific to human settlements in rural areas include
reduced productivity and food security of subsistence farmlands as a result
of rising temperatures, unreliable rainfall, water scarcity and bush
encroachment; reduced productivity of rangelands as a result of drought,
bush encroachment, malnutrition, and disease; increased vulnerability to
water shortages because of increased evaporation, changes in rainfall,
damage to infrastructure from floods and storm surges, and reduction in
groundwater recharge; reduced availability of natural resources on which
many rural communities depend because of diminished biodiversity in
already degraded ecosystems; damage to dwellings from extreme storm
events, including fire; and physical isolation of rural communities as a
result flooding and erosion of rural roads.
103
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