SARATOGA PREVIEW – HORSERACING’S SUMMER SENSATION
By Noel Michaels
The summer racing season at Saratoga is all about the top horses, trainers and jockeys in the sport of
horseracing, and the top-notch betting and handicapping that goes along with it. The fields are huge, the
competition is stiff and evenly-matched, and the payoffs are often pricey and loaded with good value for
horseplayers who are willing to put in the necessary effort.
Saratogais the ideal meet for horseplayers who follow track trends and do their homework, because you
know that so many novice handicappers and tourists will be pumping so much money into the pools at the
highly-anticipated 40-day Saratoga racing season lasts throughout the heart of the summer, running six
days a week (every day except Tuesday) from Wednesday, July 20 until Labor Day, Monday, Sept. 3.
The Saratoga meet will waste no time getting in gear with a pair of graded stakes on opening weekend,
including the Grade 1 CCA Oaks on July 21 and the Sanford Stakes on July 22. Then the second week will
be highlighted by a huge second Saturday of action on July 28, which features a pair of $600,000 stakes –
the G1 Diana and the G2-Jim Dandy. When the third week of the meet rolls around at the beginning of
August, the month will really start off with a bang courtesy of Whitney Stakes Day on Saturday, August 4.
Later in the meet, Saratoga’s two biggest weekends will center around the Alabama Stakes and the Travers
Stakes, which are scheduled on Saturday, August 18, and Saturday, August 25. The meet then wraps-up on
“Final Stretch Weekend” for a stakes-filled three-day Labor Day weekend extravaganza.
The Saratoga meet is non-stop action for handicappers, and it’s easy to see why horseplayers look forward
to this annual centerpiece race on the annual Thoroughbred racing calendar. Of course, this meet, or any
meet for that matter, can sure be a lot more enjoyable when you are winning, so I have put together a few
short and simple tips that can get you started in the right direction and give you a little information edge as
you get ready to unleash your bankroll on the races at Saratoga. Read on for some advice on what to look
for at “The Spa,” and I hope you have an enjoyable and profitable Saratoga meet. Best of luck!
Winning Running Styles and Saratoga’s Winning Track Profile
There are a few key things for handicappers to watch out for at Saratoga races in terms of post positions
and running style angles. Here are some of the top long-term trends to look for to give you the edge.
First off, Saratoga’s main track is heavily speed favoring at all distances. The speed bias is especially
prevalent in races at 6 furlongs and shorter, particularly with 2-year-olds. Early speed horses on or within a
length of the lead at the first call win nearly 50% of all short sprints.
Second, with the move to Saratoga the focus in New York racing flip-flops from benefiting one-turn route
specialists down at Belmont to favoring route horses that do their best running around two turns up at
Saratoga. Bet horses whose best route races came on more traditional layouts such as Aqueduct,
Gulfstream, the mid-Atlantic region, or in past races at Saratoga, particularly if those past races were at
Saratoga’s route distance of 1 1/8 miles. Give these two-turn horses the edge against overbet horses that do
their best running at Belmont.
Third, as detailed thoroughly later in this article in the turf sprint section, downgrade the three inside posts
in turf sprints while upgrading horses drawing far outside posts in those races.
Fourth, outside posts are negative factors on the Saratoga turf courses in routes to varying degrees. Posts 8
and outward are a slight disadvantage on the turf at most distances, while far outside posts 10 and outward
are almost always poor bets. The inside three posts can offer a good advantage to horses running on the
inner turf course at the distances of 1 mile and 1 1/16 miles.
And finally, in Saratoga grass races, the profile of the average turf winner on either course at Saratoga is a
horse that is roughly about 4 lengths off the pace at the first call and 2 1/2 lengths off the pace at the second
call. If you can get to the paddock for inner track turf races, look for physically small, athletic-looking
horses instead of large, long-striding horses. The little guys handle the tight inner course turns nicely, while
the big bulky horses generally don’t.
Two-Year-Olds and First-Time Starters
Saratoga is home to some of the country’s best 2-year-old races, and you are more likely to see next year’s
Kentucky Derby starters in action there more than at any other race meet at any other track at any time of
the year. When it comes to those expensive spa baby races, speed always helps. Most 2-year-old sprints are
either won wire-to-wire, or are won by an early speed horse or pace-presser capable of staying within two
lengths of the lead at the first call. Sometimes you will see a juvenile and/or a first-time starter win from off
the pace in Saratoga sprints, but you can’t really rely on these types of horses. When you see one, you
might want to take note of him or her, because you might be looking at a next-out winner and/or a horse
destined for next spring’s classics.
It’s not a surprise that Todd Pletcher wins a lot of 2-year-old races and also wins with a lot of first-time
starters. His 15-for-56 (27%) record with 2-year-olds at the 2011 Spa meet is indicative of what you’d
expect Pletcher’s numbers to be. However, in spite of his normally big win percentage, Pletcher’s Saratoga
2-year-olds are so well bet that they often result in a negative return on investment (ROI). Therefore, you’re
going to need to dig a little deeper than Pletcher in order to make money with 2-year-olds at Saratoga.
Some of the Saratoga ROI leaders with 2-y-o first starters might surprise you. There are several trainers
who can reward you with a positive ROI with their 2-y-o Spa first starters, including Rick Violette, John
Kimmel, Barclay Tagg, Richard Dutrow, and first-and-foremost, Bob Baffert, who has shipped to the
recent Saratoga meets with his very best, ready-to-win, dirt-suited juveniles that he feels he can’t win with
on the Polytrack at Del Mar.
Other dangerous 2-year-old trainers at Saratoga include Linda Rice, Ken McPeek, Chad Brown, and
Mike Hushion.
One guy who is known as a win-early trainer, Steve Asmussen, has been up-and-down in recent years and
can burn a whole lot of money when he’s down. However, it should be noted that 2011 was one of the
“up” years for Asmussen juveniles at the Spa. He won eight 2-year-old races with 19 juvenile starters at the
2011 meet (42% wins with a huge 72% ITM).
Some of the other Saratoga leading trainers of 2-year-olds from the 2011 meet included Kiaran
McLaughlin (3 wins from 11 starters, 27% wins and 36% ITM), Chad Brown (3 wins from 16 starters,
19% wins and 44% ITM), and Phil Serpe (4 wins from 16 starters, 25% wins and 56% ITM). Mike
Hushion also quietly did well with only four 2-year-old starters, going 3-for-4 ITM with 2 wins.
First-Time Turfers
Saratoga, when the weather holds, probably runs a higher percentage of turf races than any other major
meet of the year thanks to its two turf courses, classy horses, large horse population, and influx of top turf
barns from all over the East coast. Many of the turf races each year are won by first-time turf starters,
which are often some of the most difficult turf winners to handicap – often paying premium mutuel prices.
Some of the top trainers in this regard are certainly no surprise, with Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott leading
the way over the course of the last several years. Pletcher leads all trainers recently with Spa first-time turf
winners. It is Bill Mott, however, who has been much better in terms of ROI. Other top trainers with firsttime turfers at the Spa the last six years have included Linda Rice, who has double-digit wins in this
category – mainly with turf sprinters.
The top ROI trainers with first-time turfers at Saratoga the last seven years, besides Mott, have included
Graham Motion, George Weaver, Stanley Hough, Christophe Clement, Barclay Tagg, Tom Bush,
Wesley Ward, and hot-and-cold guys like Mike Maker and Dominick Schettino. Gary Contessa also
sprang to life in this category at the 2011 meet, even though he is not generally known for first-time turf
winners, or turf winners in general for that matter.
Saratoga Turf Sprints
Anyone who follows New York racing knows that turf sprints have become an increasingly big part of the
Saratoga landscape over the past several years. Even if you don’t like them, you ought to at least get used
to them because turf sprints have become so firmly entrenched in Saratoga racing since 2005.
Saratoga turf sprints are all run at 5 1/2 furlongs on the main turf course, with none being carded on the
inner turf. This differs greatly from Belmont, where turf sprints can be either 6 or 7 furlongs – with the 7
furlong Belmont turf sprints being run on the main turf course, and most of Belmont’s 6 furlong turf sprints
run on the inner turf. The turn in Saratoga turf sprints comes up much quicker than the turn for Belmont’s
turf sprints, and Saratoga’s turns are obviously much tighter than Belmont’s. The different turns, along with
the shorter distance, puts a much higher importance on tactical speed in Saratoga’s turf sprints as opposed
to Belmont’s.
The first thing to understand about New York turf sprints (especially at Saratoga) before anything else, is
that outside posts rule. This reality in some ways is contrary to conventional wisdom that would lead
uninformed bettors to conclude that the inside posts are the places to be.
What are the reasons that inside posts are bad and outside posts are good in Saratoga turf sprints? Well, if
you are a late-running horse with an inside post, it can be very difficult to drop back in the field and then
circle around the field with so little real estate to work with, particularly at Saratoga were the races are all 5
1/2 furlongs. If you are a stalker with an inside draw, you risk getting buried down on the rail behind the
speed horses who send from the rail or drop over from the outside. A stalker in this position finds itself at a
big disadvantage vs. the outside closers with clear sailing who will get first run at the leaders.
As for speed horses, the inside is an equal disadvantage, except in cases where the horse is the flat-out lone
speed in the field (a rarity in turf sprints at 5 1/2 furlongs). In all other cases, inside speed horses are forced
to “send” to the front, whether they want to or not, and will be at the mercy of the speed horses from the
outside who have the advantage of being able to control the pace. No matter which way you slice it, the
inside few of posts can be a difficult hurdle to overcome in Saratoga turf sprints – especially the rail!
Take a look at the raw post numbers at Saratoga. The inside gate in Saratoga turf sprints (2005-09) won just
11 of 197 races for a poor winning percentage of 5.5 percent, including just 1-for-43 in 2009 and 2-for-45
in 2010. In 2011, the rail was awful again, going just 1-for-41 (2%). When the last three Saratoga meets
are considered, the numbers for the rail are staggeringly bad. Saratoga turf sprinters breaking from the rail
post in 2009-11 went a combined 4-for-129 for an unbelievably bad 3.1% wins!
If you religiously abide by no other handicapping angle at Saratoga, you must abide by this one – don’t
bet the rail in Saratoga turf sprints!
The other far inside posts were not much better in Saratoga turf sprints the last several years. Interesting to
note is that Post 2 actually had a great meet in Spa turf sprints in 2010 with 22% winners. Nevertheless,
when long-term stats are factored in, 2010 appears to be a positive aberration for Post 2 in turf sprints,
because that post had lousy numbers every other season the turf sprints have been run at Saratoga (just 9%
wins from 2005 to 2009, and 12% wins in 2011). Post No. 3 rounds out the bad inside post positions for
Spa turf sprints winning just 2-for-43 (5%) in 2009 and only slightly better 4-for-44 (9%) in 2010, and then
terrible again in 2011 going 2-for-41 (5%).
Something like post position seems like such a trivial handicapping tool, but in these wide open Saratoga
turf sprints, any way you can narrow down the field can be helpful. Flat-out one of the best ways to narrow
down these races in recent years has been to toss out the inside three runners, at least to win.
It is the outermost posts which have proven to be the absolute best posts to break from in Saratoga’s turf
sprints. While the sample size is smaller, the outside posts 10-12 have earned winning percentages of
approximately 10% each in turf sprints run at Saratoga the last seven years (2005-2011), despite combined
accounting for less than 8% of the overall starters in those races.
Saratoga Turf Sprints Winning Post Positions
2011
2010
Post
Wins-Starts (Win %)
Wins-Starts (Win %)
1
1-41
2%
12-45
2
5-41
12%
10-45
3
2-41
5%
4-45
4
8-41
20%
5-45
5
5-41
12%
6-45
6
5-41
12%
4-45
7
3-38
8%
4-45
8
5-38
13%
3-42
9
1-33
3%
2-33
10
3-21
14%
5-21
11
3-5
60%
0-3
12
0-4
0%
0-1
4%
22%
9%
11%
13%
9%
9%
7%
6%
24%
0%
0%
Since turf sprints have been run at Saratoga dating back to the 2005 meet, Linda Rice has been the
undisputed queen of those races with no other trainer coming even remotely close to putting up her kinds of
numbers. Rice has sent out by far the most runners, and in turn the most winners. She’ll win the most races,
but due to her high number of starters, she won’t win at the highest percentage. Nevertheless, her ROI is
still usually above 2.00, which indicates her horses are usually worth betting and always difficult to bet
against.
I hope you can benefit from this Saratoga handicapping primer and use the information provided to your
best advantage when trying to turn a profit at the nation’s premier summer race meet. Good luck!