Land cover change, development, policy
issues and climate change
Anders Lunnan, School of Economics and Business,
Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Land cover change, development, policy and climate change
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
LCC plays an important role in the climate system
1.
Agricultural systems, intensity, food production and
markets, land use, land tenure, land markets
2.
Deforestation and afforestation, forest management –
forest degradation, forest carbon management
3.
Desertification
4.
Urbanization
Our research interest:
Land use: Impacts on climate change, poverty, equity and
efficiency
www.umb.no
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School of Economics and Business, professor Anders Lunnan
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Own research
 My research has mainly been on
(bio-)energy issues, land use
issues and (forest) policy issues
in the Norwegian/European
situation.
3%
Main energy sources for
heating
4%
1% 1%
0%
Electricity
Firewood
Oil and kerosene
21%
District Heating
Pellets
70%
Other
Do not know
www.umb.no
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NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
REDD+ Research at HH-UMB
• UMB actively involved in research on REDD+
• Use its multi-disciplinary strengths + previous work
• Part of the largest comparative impact assessment
• Led by CIFOR; NOK 80 mill. over 4 years
• Contributed to key publications
• Policy advice
www.umb.no
Professor Arild
Angelsen
ISchool of Economics and Business, professor Anders Lunnan
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Areas of REDD work:
 Micro studies
– Household surveys of land use and adaptation
– PES contract design
– Tanzania, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Zambia, Malawi
 National studies
– Impacts of national policies, e.g. agriculture
– Governance & institution building
 Global studies
– Global REDD architecture
– Setting reference levels for REDD
– REDD credits in carbon markets
www.umb.no
5
ISchool of Economics and Business, professor Anders Lunnan
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
EXAMPLE OF PROJECTS:
Impacts of REDD credits in a carbon market
 UMB and PBL (Dutch Env. Agency), and also IIASA
 The Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves essential, and
provided by IIASA, into PBL’s FAIR model
 Developed 10 different scenarios, depending on:
– Overall emission reductions (low/high pledges, 2 degree)
– Rules for REDD credit inclusion
 Balancing lower caps and higher REDD inclusion to keep
carbon prices at moderate levels (too low: small incentives
in other sectors, too high: politically unacceptable)
 Mendoza Beltran, Angelsen, den Elzen, Wang Gierløff,
Böttcher: “Matching REDD credits with lower emissions
caps”. Submitted to Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
for Global Change
www.umb.no
6
ISchool of Economics and Business, professor Anders Lunnan
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Part I: REDD credits in a carbon market
Alternative I: Initial situation, no REDD inclusion;
Alternative II: No change in cap: 100% crowding out (blue);
Alternative III: No change in price: higher cap, 100% additional (red);
Alternative IV: No change in costs: intermediate with some crowding out and some
additional reductions: lower price, higher cap (green).
www.umb.no
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InstSchool of Economics and Business, professor Anders Lunnan
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Results
#
Scenario name
Carbon
Price in
2020
(USD/
tCO2eq)
Reduction of CO2deforestation
Global
Global
emission in
Abatement
greenhouse % below business-as-usual levels
Costs in
gas emissions
in 2020
2020 (USD
in 2020
(% below 2005 levels)
billion and %
(GtCO2eq)
World Brazil
Indonesia
of GDP)
1
No REDD inclusion/Low
pledge
6
52.7
8
(32)
20 (32)
20
(50)
53 (0.07)
2
No REDD inclusion/High
pledge
19
51.2
10 (33)
25 (37)
25
(54)
71 (0.10)
3a
Discounting REDD/High
pledge
9
50.5
32 (50)
50 (58)
3b
Price REDD/High pledge
19
50.7
22 (42)
52 (59)
4
Full REDD inclusion/High
pledge
7
50.7
27 (46)
42 (51)
108
45.7
10
(33)
25
(37)
72
45.2
62 (71)
82 (85)
63
45.6
61 (71)
82 (85)
52 (39)
79 (67)
5
6
7
No REDD inclusion/2
degrees
Discounting REDD/2
degrees
Full REDD inclusion/2
degrees
8
Full REDD inclusion at
equal price
19
47.5
9
Full REDD inclusion at
equal costs
16
49.2
www.umb.no
8
(43)
95
(97)
4
(41)
25
(54)
95
(97)
95
(97)
72
(44)
73 (0.10)
83 (0.11)
74 (0.10)
247 (0.34)
163 (0.23)
157 (0.22)
91 (0.13)
71 (0.10)
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School of Economics and Business, professor Anders Lunnan
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Published by Palgrave
Macmillan Aug 2013
 Land to tiller reforms
 Market assisted land
distribution reforms
 Tenure security reforms
 Forest tenure reforms
 Countries studied:
Asia: China, India, Nepal,
Vietnam
Africa: Ethiopia, Kenya,
Malawi, South Africa,
Uganda
http://www.umb.no/clts
www.umb.no
9
School of Economics and Business, professor Anders Lunnan
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Some main results
 Mixed results from land
reforms
 Small vs large farms?
 Tenure insecurity often
reduces land productivity
www.umb.no
10
School of Economics and Business, professor Anders Lunnan
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
•
•
•
•
Direct effect: Crop yields
Indirect effect: Wages, food prices, livelihood of the poor
CGE-model of Malawi
Results:
• Large holdings may benefit because of increased prices of
maize
• Urban poor and small-scale farmers are vulnerable
www.umb.no
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NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Globally Certified Forest Area [mio ha]
400,00
350,00
300,00
250,00
FSC
PEFC
200,00
SFI
CSA
150,00
ATFS
MTCS
100,00
50,00
0,00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
May
2011
May
2012
 By May 2012, the global area of certified forest was 394 million
hectares, a 4% increase from May 2011; almost all the recent
growth in certified area has taken place mainly in the CIS region
(i.e. Russian Federation) and North America (i.e. USA).
www.umb.no
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Share of total certified area globally, 2012
Oceania Africa Asia Latin America
4%
3%
2% 4%
EU/EFTA
25 %
North America
51 %
Other Europe and
CIS
12 %
Southern
Hemisphere
11 %
• Almost 92% of certified
forests are in the northern
hemisphere.
Northern
Hemisphere
89%
www.umb.no
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Trends of certified forest area
[mio ha; by certification scheme]
450,00
400,00
350,00
FSC
300,00
PEFC
CSA
250,00
SFI
ATFS
200,00
MTCS
Total
150,00
Lineær (FSC)
Lineær (PEFC)
100,00
Lineær (Total)
50,00
0,00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
May
2011
May
2012
 The potential supply of industrial roundwood from certified forests
was estimated as 469 million m3 in May 2012, about 27% of global
www.umb.no
roundwood production.
School of Economics and Business, professor Anders Lunnan
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Can forest certification be part of the solution?
 About 10% of the global forest area is certified by one of
major scheems
 Around 90% of the certified area is in the Northern
hemisphere
 Today certification does not play an important role in
reducing the negative implact of deforestation and
degradation
 Could the usage of REDD+ funds be linked up to forest
certification?
www.umb.no
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Institutt for økonomi og ressursforvaltning
NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES
Possible collaborative projects
 Matching UMB competence in micro level modelling of land use,
with macro level work of IIASA
 Many aspects of household/farm level behaviour not captured in
models:
– Severely constrained: access to labour & credits, subsistence
constraints, high risk aversion
– Interaction between different farming systems, e.g. Intensiveextensive. Shifting between these have major land use
implications
– Different new technologies have different impacts. Not all
“climate smart agriculture” might be so smart
 Norwegian Center for Commodity Market Analysis.
http://www.umb.no/nccma
 PhD students at IIASA summer school (have good candidates for
2014)
www.umb.no
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THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!