Power shifts and cultural conflict
Colin Sparks
Department of Journalism
Hong Kong Baptist University
Introduction
• Give some comparative facts about the “power shift”
– Size of economies
– Rates of growth
– Income and income distribution
• Consider the implications for media and
communication
–
–
–
–
Size of advertising expenditure
Structure of the newspaper market
Situation of journalists
Trajectory of newspapers industry
• Discuss briefly other “power shifts”
– Consider their cultural consequences
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Relative GDP at Current US Dollar Prices
Brazil
Russian Federation
India
China
South Africa
Japan
United States
Source: The World Bank
1991
2001
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2010
3
Percentages of World GDP for Selected Countries
1980
2010
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Japan
United States
Rest of world
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database
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2010 GDPs in US$bn at PPPs
16000
14527
14000
12000
10128
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
4070
2187
2237
527
186
0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database
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South
Africa
USA
Finland
5
2017 Projected GDPs in US$bn at PPPs
25000
20336
20000
19704
15000
10000
5000
7574
3171
3295
752
239
0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database
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South
Africa
USA
Finland
6
Patent applications 2009
500000
456106
450000
400000
350000
314604
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
21944
38564
34287
6383
0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
USA
World Intellectual Property Organization 2012 WIPO IP Fact and Figures
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2011 per capita GNI in 2005US$ at PPPs
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
43017
32438
10162
13439
7476
9469
3468
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
USA
Finland
Source: United Nations Development Programme Human Development Report 2011
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UNDP Estimates of Gini Coefficients 2000-2011
Country
Gini Coefficient
Brazil
53.9
Russia
42.3
India
36.8
China
41.5
South Africa
57.8
USA
40.8
Hong Kong
43.4
Sweden
25.0
Finland
26.9
Japan (1993)
25.0
Singapore (1998)
42.0
Source: United Nations Development Programme Human Development Report 2011
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In summary
• There is an economic shift going on
– It is not as large yet as is sometimes claimed
– China is by far the most important BRIC
– The shift is likely to continue into the future
• The US is today by far the dominant economy
– Much larger size even than China
– Much higher per capita income
– The most innovative economy
• Both the BRICS and the advanced world are
marked by great and growing inequality
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Advertising Expenditure 2000-2010 at Constant 2005 $USm
160000
150160
140000
127692
120000
Brazil
100000
Russia
India
80000
China
South Africa
60000
USA
Finland
40000
25206
20000
13392
5620 4759
1277
4754
1094
1071
5510 2950
3004
1814
0
2001
Source: World Advertising Research Centre
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2011
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Per capita adspend in $US in 2011
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
470
412
93
85
62
23
4
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Source: Derived from World Advertising Research Centre
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South
Africa
USA
Finland
12
700
Circulation of paid-for daily newspapers
per 1000 of adult population in 2008
612
600
482
500
400
300
200
200
100
142
73
111
51
No data
0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
USA
Japan
Finland
Source: World Press Trends 2009
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A rough measure of media freedom
Lower score = more media freedom
160
136
140
120
100
80
66
60
40
58
35
20
12
14
South
Africa
USA
0
-20
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Finland
-10
Source: Reporters Without Frontiers Press Freedom Index 2011-12
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Persecution of Journalists in Selected Countries
Imprisoned Journalists
2011
Murders of journalists
1992-2011
Brazil
0
21
Russia
India
China
South Africa
USA
Finland
0
2
27
0
0
0
53
28
2
3
5
0
Country
Source: Committee to Protect Journalists
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A rough measure of corruption
Lower score = more perceived corruption
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
9,4
7,1
3,8
2,4
Brazil
Russia
3,1
India
3,6
China
4,1
South
Africa
USA
Finland
Source: Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2011
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US daily press circulation
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Newspaper Association of America (Note: Figures for 2010 are interpolated.)
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Chinese daily press circulation
Cumulative annual circulation of `daily' newspapers published 5, 6 & 7 times weekly
37 000 000 000
35 000 000 000
33 000 000 000
31 000 000 000
29 000 000 000
27 000 000 000
25 000 000 000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: General Administration of Press and Publishing (GAPP) 2001-2010
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In summary
• Low per capita income means lower potential for
subscription revenue
• Low advertising expenditure means poorer mass media
– High Gini co-efficients mean large market for elite media
• Media struggle to achieve similar levels of freedom as in
the advanced world
– Level of repression of journalists relatively high
– Level of corruption of journalists relatively high
• Media still in a phase of national expansion unlike in the
advanced world
• Likely still to be relatively weak compared to US media in
international terms for some time
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There have been earlier power shifts
• Incumbents and challengers a common pattern
– Results do not always result in a lasting victory for the challenger
– Victors and benefactors not necessarily the same
• Late 19th to early 20th Century
–
–
–
–
UK economy surpassed by Germany and USA in late 19th Century
Primary conflict between UK and Germany
Short term victor UK (at least in 1918)
Main benefactors USA and USSR after 1945
• Late 20th Century
– Primary conflict between USA and USSR
– Short term victor USA (at least after 1989-1991)
– Main benefactors USA and China?
• In the longer term?
– It is possible that China’s economy will surpass that of the USA in the
foreseeable future
– There are already obvious signs of conflict
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Not yet a military balance
Estimated expenditure in $billion 2010
800
698,3
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
121,1
34,4
58,6
46,1
Brazil
Russia
India
4,6
0
China
South Africa
3,4
USA
Finland
Source: SIPRI 2012
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Economics and culture
• A major reason for international cultural influence is
economic and political power
– Language
– Sport
– Movies
• The economic rise of the BRICS will be accompanied by
increasing cultural influence
– On what timescale?
• Economic rise leads to conflict
–
–
–
–
Cultural rise will also lead to conflicts
Already visible in things like internet governance
China’s “going out” strategy
Think about popular culture during the Cold War
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Some conclusions
• There is an economic shift going on
– It is not as dramatic as some pretend
– It is not replicated in politics, culture or military power
• This shift in the balance of power is likely to
continue
– Will result in conflicts
– Some of these conflicts (hopefully all) will be about
culture
– Will involve both international competition and
national popular cultures
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