Noname manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Advantages of Application of Data Enrichment Methods for the Art Market: An Empirical Study Dominik Filipiak · Agata Filipowska Received: date / Accepted: date Abstract Research carried out on art market indices is mostly focused on methods stemming from econometrics. Data availability and quality seems to play an important role in all conducted studies. An intense effort to digitalise information about artworks constitutes a chance to take advantage of rich data sources that may influence this research. We are proposing a method for building an accurate description of the art market, including indices, using state-of-the-art achievements of data enrichment, data fusion and data science. This will lead to the extension of the amount of data available for further analysis. Such high-quality data can be applied inter alia for building high precision art market indices, especially these which make use of hedonic regression or probit models. The output of the proposed approach may help to spot new art market trends, especially because of the scope of the art market description. Although conducted research is focused on the Polish art market, the method itself can be applied to any country. The paper is to present both the method, as well as the initial application results for the Polish art market. Keywords Art market · Hedonic indices · Data enrichment JEL classification Z11 · C80 D. Filipiak Department of Information Systems Poznań University of Economics and Business E-mail: [email protected] A. Filipowska Department of Information Systems Poznań University of Economics and Business E-mail: [email protected] 2 Dominik Filipiak, Agata Filipowska 1 Introduction Treating artworks as an investment in periods of prosperity has a long history. However, research made to precisely measure the art market has only been conducted since several decades. These efforts consider describing trends, outlining a shape of the market and an appraisal. Creating reliable indices to allow to compare artworks with other forms of investments (alternative as well as more traditional) plays an especially important role in this research. Data availability and quality seem to play an important role in all conducted studies. An intense effort to digitalise information about artworks constitutes a chance to take advantage of rich data sources that may influence this research. We are proposing a method for building an accurate description of the art market, including indices, using state-of-the-art achievements of data enrichment, data fusion and data science. This will lead to an extension of the amount of data available for further analysis. Such high-quality data can be applied inter alia for building high precision art market indices, especially these which make a use of hedonic regression or probit models. The output of the proposed approach may help to spot new art market trends, especially because of the scope of the art market description. Although the conducted research is focused on the Polish art market, the method itself can be applied to any country. The paper is to present both the method, as well as the initial application results for the Polish art market. This paper is organised as follows. The next section contains a review of work related to the subject matter. The following section describes the proposed method. After that, the used dataset and the experiment results are described. A brief summary with a view for future research constitutes the last section. 2 Related Work Efforts to measure the art market focus on creating various types of indices. Their purpose is to [5]: – outline general art market trends and provide a way to compare investment in arts with other forms of investment, such as stocks and bonds, – measure the art market volatility in comparison with other types of investment, – investigate how different social and economic incentives influence the art market, – appraise the overall value of artworks. Two main methods of art market index building may be outlined, based on their creation process. The first group considers repeated-sales regression (RSR). Intuitively, it relies on artworks sold at least twice and the ratio of the first to the second price. Though this approach may seem rational, it suffers from a lack of data. Art is a long-term investment, therefore it is hard to collect Advantages of Application of Data Enrichment Methods for the Art Market 3 enough observations to build a reliable index. An example of this kind is the famous Mei & Moses index, which bases on Christie’s and Sotheby’s repeated sales [10]. The second approach employs so-called hedonic regression, which is a form of a linear regression. Usually, it compares a natural logarithm of the hammer price of a given artwork to explanatory variables, consecutively measuring a lot’s features during a given period. These variables may be numerical (like the size of a painting) or dummy (like the medium used or the year of a sale). Dummies are equal to 0 or 1 depending on a presence of a given attribute. This approach is widely used in the art market analysis [12] [9], because it can take into account all sold lots. An example of an index built based on hedonic regression is the German Art All 2-step hedonic index [7]. Collins et al. [3] address the problem of selection bias and time instability in the index by the Heckman 2-stage procedure. Jones et al. [6] argue that usage of a logarithm in HR yields indices that are hard to interpret in an economic way. Bocart [2] suggested a heteroskedastic HR model with a non-parametric local likelihood estimator. The concept of enriching data with semantic information is not an entirely new idea [1]. Due to its wide range of possible applications, data enrichment has been used for different subjects. For example, van der Waal et al. used it in the domain of government open data [13]. Paulheim et al. investigate a more general approach for adding background knowledge in the data mining field [11]. They outline linking as the first step in combining original information with ancillary data sources. Basing on a tool presented in their paper, various types of linking may be enlisted: – – – – pattern-based linking, label-based linking, lookup linking, SameAs linking. Though widely described in the literature, methods based on hedonic regression are still prone to selection bias, quality and size of a considered dataset. With limited data about the art market, it is crucial to ensure that the research is conducted on the best available set of observations and all possible variables are taken into account. Therefore, it is a place for semantic enrichment, which is the core of the presented method. 3 Method Issues regarding the art market remain the same - index construction and comparing it to other forms of assets have been studied many times. Our solution shows a nouvelle approach to the old problems. The presented method for measuring the art market consists of the following steps: 1. data collection, 2. data linking, 4 Dominik Filipiak, Agata Filipowska 3. data enrichment, 4. index building. The first step is a base for all art market related research. Keeping in mind the so-called garbage in, garbage out rule, a data collection process must be performed with caution and precisely – especially taking into account further steps, which include data linking. Therefore, a sufficient amount of time needs to be spent on data cleansing and preparation. The data enrichment shows our contribution to the art market. To the best of our knowledge, Linked Open Data (and DBpedia in particular) was not used in this field of study before. Finally, the index building step is to present the usability of previously mentioned actions - yielded indices (thanks to data enrichment) should be more accurate and describe the art market more precisely. DBpedia, tightly coupled with Wikipedia, provides an access to information about numerous extracted concepts - especially from infoboxes, which are available in an easy to parse way. Making a vast amount of crowd-sourced data structured, it comes with a SPARQL API to facilitate querying about sophisticated structures [8]. Wikipedia (and therefore DBpedia) is perceived not as a suitable place for publishing art market data. One may find brief information about auction houses. Apart from art world giants such as Christie’s or Sotheby’s, it is not much more than simple descriptions and historical context. Especially for local institutions, such as these existing on the Polish art market, there is very little information presented. Art (in general) is described well. Rich information about artists or particular artworks is available on an English DBpedia. As for various described topics, they may be part of subjects divided by genre, medium, nationality or a period in the art category hierarchy. This makes it possible to utilise accommodated knowledge in an automated way. As further sections of this paper will explain, it may constitute an input for equations depicting the art market. The data collection process in this case consists of several steps: 1. 2. 3. 4. source identification, crawlers preparation, crawling, post-processing. Since auction houses are publishing sales results on the Internet, one can gain access to historical information. This helps to minimise the asymmetry of information (between professional traders and those who are new to this field) and, as a consequence, popularise the art market. However, to access the data about - for example - Picasso’s paintings at auctions, one will have to browse numerous websites. To bridge this gap, companies such as artnet1 or Artprice2 try to collect all data published on auction houses’ pages. However, these kinds of sites are often paid, still not easily processable by computers and finally, due to legal issues, can’t be used in research. 1 2 http://artnet.com http://artprice.com Advantages of Application of Data Enrichment Methods for the Art Market 5 Therefore, to perform experiments, data has to be gathered on one’s own. To overcome this problem, crawlers may be used. A crawler (sometimes called a spider) is a program written to systematically visit given Web pages and collect selected information. Popular examples of software or libraries supporting the data collection are Apache Nutch3 or Scrapy4 . In the conducted research, special attention is given to the Polish art market. Therefore, sites of the four biggest Polish auction houses (Desa Unicum, Rempex, Agra-Art, and Polswiss Art) are considered as primary sources of data. Fortunately, auction houses often publish information in a systematised, crawling-friendly way. Writing a crawler and preparing a set of XPath rules to extract data is considered engineering work and it is beyond the scope of this paper. As a result of this step, crawled lots are stored in a structured file and can be treated as observations, statistically speaking. Results often need refinement, however. Missing data, encoding problems or typos are common issues, to name a few. Some auction houses do not publish hammer prices directly on their pages - they are doing it in the form of PDF files. Therefore, the data extraction involves not only crawling, but also processing of PDF files. It may be done using e.g. software like Apache Tika5 . To make use of DBpedia in the presented research, it is needed to perform data linking. For lots in auction sales, it can be done in two dimensions: artwork title and artist name. This process shall help to establish a link between the raw data obtained while crawling websites of auction house and DBpedia. By linking, data enrichment may be achieved. It can be assumed that if a given artwork has its own Wikipedia page, it is somehow widely recognised and - therefore - that fact influences its hammer price. Regarding the Polish art market, it is quite a rare situation when a lot has its own page. The situation is quite different when it comes to the artist’s page - a lot of information can be extracted, since many of creators of lots have been described in detail (like Andy Warhol6 ). Data linking basically relies on translating artists’ names to relevant resources’ URIs on DBpedia (pattern-based linking according to the classification provided by Paulheim et al.). Fortunately, it is a common situation where an artist’s URI is constructed by concatenation of a name and a surname (with an underscore in the middle). For example, for the famous Polish painter Wojciech Kossak the resource URI is constructed as presented in listing. However, collected data about artwork creators can contain mistakes (e.g. misplaced first and second name) and typos. Moreover, data from auction houses may be simply incompatible - for example, one auction house publishes the artist name and surname written in capitalised letters, whereas another one stores it altogether with the artists’ date of birth. Regular ex3 4 5 6 http://nutch.apache.org http://scrapy.org https://tika.apache.org https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Warhol 6 Dominik Filipiak, Agata Filipowska pressions can cope with simple and repeatable data transformation, but they are not enough. Therefore, fuzzy string matching algorithms are employed. Unfortunately, fuzzy string matching is not an ultimate solution to overcome all problems related to typos. For instance, a clustering algorithm based on a Levensthein distance may very well deal with typos in artists’ names. The situation where an artwork’s author is not known is not a rare event, and therefore sometimes information like ”XIX century” is presented instead of an expected name and surname. For a matching algorithm based on Levenhstein distance, there is barely any difference between ”XX century” and ”XIX century”. On the other hand, more sophisticated solutions may not handle the simplest cases. That is why it is needed to discard the choice of one conventional solution. OpenRefine7 , a free data cleansing tool, is used in this research to maintain and pre-process data collected by crawlers. It comes with a set of clustering algorithms to group and pinpoint similar entries in the collected data. Not to be confused with a broad definition of clustering, in this particular application it is understood as finding groups of different values that might be alternative representations of the same thing. A set of provided clustering algorithms contains these based on key collision methods, n-gram fingerprint, k-nearest neighbours, Levensthein distance and PPM8 . As a result, a user may select which rows present the same (semantic) information and choose a common lexical content to perform a unification. This solution needs interaction with a user and requires minimum art history knowledge, but since it can’t be done fully automatically, OpenRefine comes with a convenient set of tools to overcome this problem. Linked data paves the way to the art market index enrichment by providing more detailed information. Regarding this section, future work may consider writing a rulebased fuzzy string matching, which will suit the best algorithm to the specific content and perform transformation on the fly. A set of newly obtained explanatory variables (like mentioned style or important works) can be employed in any regression model which uses lots’ qualities as explanatory variables. As in this very basic hedonic example, estimated by Ordinary Least Squares method: ln Pit = α + z X j=1 βj Xij + τ X γt Dit + εit (1) t=0 where ln Pit is a natural logarithm of a price of a given painting i ∈ {1, 2, ..., N } at time t ∈ {1, 2, ..., τ }; α, β and γ are regression coefficients for parameters. Xij represents hedonic variables included in the model, whereas Dit stands for time dummy variables. A set of hedonic variables includes the artist name, a painting’s size, year of creation and all other information obtained in the data collection process as well as the enrichment process to describe a given painting. Some of variables 7 8 https://github.com/OpenRefine/OpenRefine https://github.com/OpenRefine/OpenRefine/wiki/Clustering-In-Depth Advantages of Application of Data Enrichment Methods for the Art Market 7 are numeric (like size or price), others are so-called dummy variables (they are equal to 0 or 1, for example denoting an artist’s affiliation). With a huge amount of well-described observations, the next step is building an index. The construction of a simple art market index considers the following equation: Indext = eγt (2) Because of an enriched set of Xij , estimated γt is more accurate. As a consequence, a yielded index for a period t is more precise. The usage of an ancillary data source can also help to discover new statistically significant concepts related to artworks. It is a clear illustration of an application of the presented method due to its simplicity. As it was mentioned, enriching information is suitable for any method taking into account a lot’s features. 4 Evaluation During the experiment we used data from the four biggest Polish auction houses – Desa Unicum, Agra Art, Polswiss Art, and Rempex. Data cleansing tools were applied as described in the previous section. Table 1 depicts some basic characteristics of the dataset. By observation we mean a single lot sold or not during an auction. A quick glimpse at the data shows some disproportions in the number of unique authors. Desa Unicum has almost two times more artists compared to Agra Art, having a very similar amount of sold lots. This may be due to the fact that the first auction house is known from regularly promoting young artists. It is also worth to mention that data are obtained from different years for various auction houses. Since this article is focused on improving the quality of the data, this is not an obstacle. For the index building process, however, the data should be well balanced regarding years of sales. Table 1 Datasets characteristcs Auction House Characteristics Number Desa Unicum observations unique authors 25837 5691 Agra Art observations unique authors 23746 2792 Polswiss Art observations unique authors 2599 1584 Rempex observations unique authors 14758 3846 Birth and death dates, style and nationality are among the most commonly used hedonic variables in the art market domain. Therefore we examined artists in terms of the presence of four RDF properties: 8 – – – – Dominik Filipiak, Agata Filipowska dbpedia-owl:birthDate for artists’ birth dates, dbpedia-owl:deathDate for artists’ death dates, prop-pl:styl for artists’ styles, prop-pl:narodowość for artists’ nationalities. SPARQL queries were written to connect raw artist information and DBpedia entities. Tables 2 and 3 summarise the conducted experiment in quantitative terms. There is a small number of caveats which concern the assessment of the presented method. Since many lots of a popular author can be found in a given auction house offer, figures behind enriching unique authors compared to overall changes in datasets show a huge disproportion. The presented method might affect nearly one quarter of the whole dataset in terms of updated observations, whereas it constitutes only up to roughly 5% of the number of unique artist. It is then no surprise that popular artists whose artworks are being sold most frequently are the ones which have the most complete description on DBpedia. Table 2 Number of found entities in the Desa Unicum dataset Auction House Attribute Entites found Distinct entities Desa Unicum Birth date Death date Style Nationality 4145 3556 1942 2850 380 277 58 25 Agra Art Birth date Death date Style Nationality 7253 6491 3809 5964 303 230 49 26 Polswiss Art Birth date Death date Style Nationality 270 223 120 188 83 64 49 20 Rempex Birth date Death date Style Nationality 4566 4075 2714 2917 354 284 59 30 (all) Birth date Death date Style Nationality 16234 14345 8609 11925 605 434 80 42 Table 4 shows results of the experiment regarding artists’ nationality. As it was expected, the Polish nationality dominated this ranking. Artists of Lemkos, Austrian, Lithuanian, and Jewish descent were also popular. A closer look at the results shows some inconsistency in Wikipedia/DBpedia conventions. For example – with regard to nationality – polska, Polak, Polka means the very same (Polish), as well as http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polacy Advantages of Application of Data Enrichment Methods for the Art Market 9 Table 3 Changes in the dataset Auction House Attribute Observations updated Unique authors updated Desa Unicum Birth date Death date Style Nationality 16.04% 13.76% 7.52% 11.03% 6.68% 4.87% 1.02% 0.44% Agra Art Birth date Death date Style Nationality 30.54% 27.34% 16.04% 25.12% 10.85% 8.24% 1.76% 0.93% Polswiss Art Birth date Death date Style Nationality 10.39% 8.58% 5.54% 7.46% 5.24% 4.04% 1.77% 0.44% Rempex Birth date Death date Style Nationality 30.94% 27.61% 18.39% 19.77% 9.20% 7.38% 1.53% 0.78% (all) Birth date Death date Style Nationality 24.25% 21.43% 12.86% 17.81% 4.49% 3.22% 0.59% 0.31% (an entity for Poles) and http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polska (an entity for Poland). Therefore, as a continuation and next step of this research it will be needed to tackle this issue by mitigating the problem of semantically similar entities and strings, with regard to grammatical and language-specific differences. This issue is a complex problem, since Poland, for instance, intuitively has an identical meaning as Poles in this context, whereas technically these words mean different things. Table 4 Most popular nationalities found in the whole dataset prop-pl:narodowość 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 polska http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polacy Polak http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Lemkowie Polka http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polska Polska austriacka litewska http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Żydzi count 5032 5028 715 243 185 167 95 81 64 52 The carried out experiment shows that Polish artists representing Realism, Impressionism and Symbolism are among the most popular in Polish auction 10 Dominik Filipiak, Agata Filipowska houses, at least those who are structurally described on Wikipedia (Table 5). However, these results are biased in the same way as the nationalities are. Plain strings appear to be mixed with DBpedia entities (symbolizm and the named entity Symbolizm as a symbolism). Another example of inconsistency is related to the Realism entity representation in two ambiguous forms (Realizm (malarstwo) and Realizm). Although a large number of entities were updated, there has to be some post-processing to disambiguate all these entities and strings before using the results of this method in, for example, regression analysis. Detailed results for particular auction houses can be found in Appendix A in tables 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 Table 5 Most popular styles found in the whole dataset prop-pl:styl 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Realizm (malarstwo) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Impresjonizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Modernizm (sztuka) symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Ekspresjonizm (sztuka) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Realizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Sztuka konceptualna koloryzm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Prymitywizm (malarstwo) count 1429 1008 704 581 504 448 301 250 244 243 5 Summary In this paper we have shown a method for improving the quality of art market datasets. As an example, the method has been tested on the Polish art market data and yielded sound results. Realism, Impressionism and Symbolism were the most popular styles among artists whose work is sold at Polish auction houses. Initial results are promising, but there is still room for improvement. The most important directions consider refining the results obtained in this research, such as linking nationalities with the same semantic meaning but different grammatical form. This research was based only on the Polish DBpedia. Employing other languages might help to analyse other artists, especially these which weren’t born in Poland. Auction houses also often provide an artist and/or artwork description. After employing Natural Language Processing methods, this may be used as a source of additional data. Providing the widest range of possible hedonic variables is an ultimate goal behind this research. Future work will include the employment of deep neural networks, which should precisely connect particular artworks with styles [4] basing only Advantages of Application of Data Enrichment Methods for the Art Market 11 on a single image. Having done the enrichment, it is possible to conduct a traditional index-based art market research. References 1. Abramowicz, W., Kaczmarek, T., Wecel, K.: How Much Intelligence in the Semantic Web? In: P.S. Szczepaniak, J. Kacprzyk, A. Niewiadomski (eds.) Advances in Web Intelligence, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 3528, pp. 1–6. Springer Berlin Heidelberg (2005). DOI 10.1007/11495772 1. URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/11495772_1 2. Bocart, F.Y., Hafner, C.M.: Econometric analysis of volatile art markets. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 56(11), 3091–3104 (2012). DOI 10.1016/j.csda.2011.10.019. URL http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947311003902 3. 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URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09846-3_9 12 Dominik Filipiak, Agata Filipowska A Appendix: Detailed Results Table 6 Most popular nationalities found in the Desa Unicum dataset prop-pl:narodowość 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 polska http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polacy Polak http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Lemkowie http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polska Polka Polska amerykańska http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Żydzi Żydowska count 1181 1099 217 117 72 44 38 16 15 9 Table 7 Most popular styles found in the Desa Unicum dataset prop-pl:styl 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 count http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Realizm (malarstwo) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Impresjonizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Prymitywizm (malarstwo) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Modernizm (sztuka) symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Ekspresjonizm (sztuka) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Art déco http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Realizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Sztuka konceptualna Table 8 Most popular nationalities found in the Agra dataset prop-pl:narodowość 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polacy polska Polak Polka austriacka litewska http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polska Polska http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Żydzi Żydowska count 2734 2443 320 110 73 64 46 36 32 29 259 213 183 117 116 111 108 66 63 53 Advantages of Application of Data Enrichment Methods for the Art Market 13 Table 9 Most popular styles found in the Agra dataset prop-pl:styl 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 count http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Realizm (malarstwo) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Impresjonizm symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Modernizm (sztuka) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Sztuka konceptualna koloryzm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Secesja (sztuka) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Styl zakopiański http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Surrealizm 840 583 234 192 167 155 146 131 125 109 Table 10 Most popular nationalities found in the Polswiss dataset prop-pl:narodowość 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 polska http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polacy Polak http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polska Polka http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Lemkowie http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Żydzi count 106 62 15 4 3 2 2 Table 11 Most popular styles found in the Polswiss dataset prop-pl:styl 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Realizm (malarstwo) symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Realizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Modernizm (sztuka) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Ekspresjonizm (sztuka) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Neoekspresjonizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Abstrakcja konkretna http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Ekspresjonizm abstrakcyjny http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Sztuka konkretna count 17 13 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 14 Dominik Filipiak, Agata Filipowska Table 12 Most popular nationalities found in the Rempex dataset prop-pl:narodowość 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 polska http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polacy Polak http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Lemkowie http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Polska Polka Polska Żydowska czeska http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Rosjanie count 1302 1133 163 124 45 28 21 13 9 9 Table 13 Most popular styles found in the Rempex dataset prop-pl:styl 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Realizm (malarstwo) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Modernizm (sztuka) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Ekspresjonizm (sztuka) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Impresjonizm symbolizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Prymitywizm (malarstwo) http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Realizm http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Art déco http://pl.dbpedia.org/resource/Piktorializm count 313 313 264 244 236 146 124 118 101 87
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