$QGUHD&ROOL
ƒ‹‰…‘’—–‡”•‘„Ž‡Ǥ
‡š’‡”‹‡–‹ƒ—–‘ƒ–‹…ƒƒŽ›•‹•
‘ˆ‡†‹‡˜ƒŽ–‡š–•ͳ
,QWURGXFWLRQ
&RPSXWHUDQDO\VLVRIWH[WVFUHDWLRQRIGDWDEDVHVK\SHUWH[WVDQGGLJLWDO
HGLWLRQVDUHQRWWKHILQDOIURQWLHURIUHVHDUFKDQ\PRUH4XLWHWKHFRQWUDU\
IURPPDQ\\HDUVWKH\KDYHEHHQUHSUHVHQWLQJDVLJQLILFDQWFRQWULEXWLRQWR
PHGLHYDOVWXGLHV7KHUHIRUHZHGRQRWPHDQWRPDNHWKHFRPSXWHUDEOH
WR JUDVS WKH PHDQLQJ RI KXPDQ ODQJXDJH DQG SHQHWUDWH LWV VHFUHWV EXW
UDWKHUZHDLPDWLPSURYLQJWKHLUWRROVVRWKDWWKH\ZLOOEHFRPHDQHYHQ
PRUHHIILFLHQWHTXLSPHQWHPSOR\HGLQUHVHDUFKDFWLYLWLHV
2Q D FORVHU YLHZ JLYLQJ VHULRXV FRQVLGHUDWLRQ WR WKLV SURJUHVV RI WKH
PDWWHU VLJQLILHV NHHSLQJ DQ H\H ± IURP DQ DW\SLFDO YLHZSRLQW ± RQ WKH
TXHVWLRQ RI WKH LQWULFDWH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SKLORVRSK\ DQG SKLORORJ\
UHJDUGLQJWKHPHGLHYDOVWXGLHV1RZWKDWZRUNLQJIRUDFULWLFDOHGLWLRQRI
DSKLORVRSKLFDOWH[WVGRHVQRWLPSO\DWKHRUHWLFDOHIIRUWDQGE\FRQWUDVW
WKDW D SKLORVRSKHU WDFNOHV WKH VSHFXODWLYH SUREOHPV ZLWKRXW WDNLQJ LQWR
DGHTXDWHFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKHWH[WXDOEDVLVLVREYLRXVO\DVWHUHRW\SH,QIDFW
LQ PRVW FDVHV WKH WZR SHUVSHFWLYHV RI LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DUH QRW HPSLULFDOO\
VHSDUDEOH D JRRG HGLWRU PXVW EH D JRRG SKLORVRSKHU DQG D SULPDU\
NQRZOHGJHRISDOHRJUDSK\ VKRXOGEHUHTXHVWHGWREHD JRRGVFKRODULQ
PHGLHYDO VWXGLHV +RZHYHU DQ DVSHFW E\ ZKLFK WKHVH WZR DSSURDFKHV
FRXOGEHGLVFULPLQDWHGUHVLGHVSUHFLVHO\LQWKHGLIIHUHQWXVHRIGLJLWDODQG
DXWRPDWHG WRROV (ODERUDWLQJ FULWLFDO HGLWLRQV RI PDQXVFULSWV RU
LGHQWLI\LQJ WKH SULQFLSDO VRXUFHV RI D PHGLHYDO WH[W LPSOLHV XVXDOO\ D
PDVVLYHXVHRIGDWDEDVHVRSHQOLEUDULHVRIGLJLWDODUFKLYHV$FWXDOO\LQ
RUGHU WR FODVVLI\ UHFXUULQJ TXRWDWLRQV ZHOOIRXQGHG LQIRUPDWLRQ FDQ EH
REWDLQHGDOVRE\XVLQJWKHPRVWFRPPRQDQGDFFHVVLEOHVHDUFKHQJLQHV
ʹͶͶ
‘ŽŽ‹
2Q WKH FRQWUDU\ IRU D WKHRUHWLFDO OHFWXUH RI GRFWULQHV D GHWDLOHG
H[DPLQDWLRQRIWH[WXDOGDWDVHHPVIUHTXHQWO\WRUHSUHVHQWRQO\DVRUWRI
SUHPLVH VRPHWLPHV D SUHWHVW WR SKLORVRSKL]H WKHUHIRUH FRPSXWHU
DQDO\VLVRQWKHWH[WVGRHVQRWSOD\DVRFUXFLDOIXQFWLRQ
$ SHFXOLDU WUDLW RI WKLV PHWKRGRORJLFDO GLVSDULW\ LV UHODWHG WR WKH
LQVXIILFLHQWDSWLWXGHE\VHYHUDOPHGLHYDOVFKRODUVWRWDNHDGYDQWDJHRI
DOOSRWHQWLDOLWLHVRIIHUHGE\DFWXDOWRROVIRUDXWRPDWLFWH[WSURFHVVLQJ,Q
RWKHU WHUPV VHYHUDO FRPSXWHU WHFKQRORJLHV FRQFHLYHG IRU DQDO\]LQJ
GLIIHUHQW NLQGV RI WH[WV DUH ± LQ P\ RSLQLRQ ± QRW \HW DGHTXDWHO\
HPSOR\HG LQ WKH PHGLHYDO VWXGLHV DOWKRXJK WKH XVH RI D FRPPRQ
ODQJXDJH/DWLQDVZHOODVWKHSUHVHQFHRIVWHUHRW\SLFDODQGUHFXUUHQWO\
DGDJHVRUTXRWDWLRQVKRXOGUHSUHVHQWDQDGYDQWDJH
7KLVSDSHULVWKRXJKWDVDVRUWRIWHFKQLFDOUHSRUWZLWKWKHSURSRVHGWDVN
WRYHULI\LIDQDXWRPDWLFLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIVRPHZRUGDVVRFLDWLRQVZLWKLQD
VHOHFWHGJURXSVRIPHGLHYDOZULWLQJVSURGXFHVVXJJHVWLRQVRQWKHVXEMHFW
RI WKH SURFHVVHG WH[WV DEOH WR EH XVHG LQ D WKHRUHWLFDO LQTXLU\ ,Q RWKHU
WHUPVE\DGRSWLQJGLJLWDOWHFKQRORJLHVDVDQXQLWDU\SHUVSHFWLYHWKHJRDO
LVWRH[SORUHLQZKLFKWHUPVLWLVSRVVLEOHWRSURJUHVVIURPDOH[LFDORU
OLQJXLVWLFDSSURDFKWRZDUGVDSKLORVRSKLFDORQHZLWKRXWPHWKRGRORJLFDO
DOWHUDWLRQV RU LQWHUUXSWLRQV &RXOG FRPSXWHU DQDO\VLV SURYLGH FRQWLQXLW\
EHWZHHQSKLORORJ\DQGSKLORVRSK\"
7KHUHPDLQGHURIWKLVDUWLFOHLVRUJDQL]HGDVIROORZV6HFWLRQIRFXVHVRQ
WKHWDVN GHVFULSWLRQE\ JLYLQJDVKRUWRYHUYLHZRIWKH LQYHQWRU\RIWKH
GDWD DQG E\ GHILQLQJ WKH .:,& DGRSWHG IRU SURFHVVLQJ WKHP ,Q WKH
VHFWLRQ VRPH DOJRULWKPV DFFHVVLEOH LQ D VXLWH GHYRWHG WR WH[WXDO
DQDO\VLV DUH WHVWHG RQ WKH VHOHFWHG GDWD 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH WDVN DUH
GLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWLRQZKLOHVHFWLRQFRQFOXGHVWKLVSDSHU
7DVNGHVFULSWLRQ
6RXUFHV
7KH VRXUFHV RI GDWD FRQVLVW LQ $OEHUW WKH *UHDW¶V 2SHUD RPQLD WUHDWLVHVFRQVLGHULQJRQO\WKHWH[WVHGLWHGZLWKLQ(GLWLR&RORQLHQVLVDQG
%RQDYHQWXUHV¶V 2SHUD RPQLD WUHDWLVHV LQFOXGLQJ LQ 4XDUDFFKL¶V
HGLWLRQ %RWK VHULHV RI ZULWLQJV DUH DYDLODEOH LQ D GLJLWDO YHUVLRQ E\
ƒ”‡–‹‰…‘’—–‡”•‘„Ž‡
ʹͶͷ
$OEHUWL 0DJQL 2SHUD RPQLD $VFKHQGRUII DQG /DWLQ /LEUDU\ 6HULHV$
DQG % %UHSROLV $OEHUW¶V WH[WV ZHUH GHILQHG ©FOXVWHU $OEª ZKLOH
%RQDYHQWXUH¶VZRUNV©FOXVWHU%RQª
.:,&
$V GHVFULEHG LQ WKH VHFWLRQ WKH WZR GHILQHG FOXVWHUV RI WH[WV ZDV
SURFHVVHGZLWKWKHLQWHQWLRQWRRXWOLQHWKHVHPDQWLFIXQFWLRQDVVXPHGE\
VRPH NH\ZRUGV LH WKH QRXQ QRELOLWDV QRELOLWDWLV DQG WKH DGMHFWLYH
QRELOLVH
'DWD
$OOWKHRFFXUUHQFHVRIQRELOLVDQGQRELOLWDVLQFOXGHGLQFOXVWHUV$DQG%
ZHUH H[WUDFWHG ZLWK WKUHH OLQHV RI FRQWH[W ,Q VR GRLQJ IURP WKH WZR
RULJLQDO FOXVWHUV ZH FLUFXPVFULEHG WZR VHOHFWHG JURXS RI WH[WV ©VXE
FOXVWHUV $OEª DQG ©VXEFOXVWHUª %RQ FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ WKH IROORZLQJ
SURSHUWLHV
7DEOH6RXUFHGDWD
WH[WV
ZRUGV
$OE
%RQ
,Q RUGHU WR SURFHVV WKH H[WUDFWHG WH[WV E\ WRROV IRU DXWRPDWLF DQDO\VLV
ZRUGV ZHUH OHPPDWL]HG E\ 7UHH7DJJHU DV GLVSOD\HG LQ WKH IROORZLQJ
H[DPSOH
7DEOH([DPSOHRIRXWSXWVDIWHUOHPPDWL]DWLRQZLWK7UHH7DJJHU
,QSXW
*UDPPDWLF$QQRWDWLRQ
2XWSXW
4XDHULWXU
9,1'
TXDHUR
HWLDP
LQ
&&
35(3
HWLDP
LQ
TXR
5(/
TXL
ʹͶ͸
‘ŽŽ‹
LOORUXP
',026
LOOH
YHULXV
$'-&20
YHUXV
HW
&&
HW
QRELOLXV
$'-&20
QRELOLV
VLW
(66(68%
VXP
HW
&&
HW
HYLGHQWLXV
$'9
HYLGHQWHU
VHFXQGXP
35(3
VHFXQGXP
HVVH
(66(,1)
VXP
'XULQJ WKH SURFHVV 7UHH7DJJHU GLG QRW UHFRJQL]H VRPH ZRUGV LQ $OE
WKH©XQNQRZQªOHPPDVZHUHZKLOHLQ%RQ
5HJDUGLQJ$OEPRUHXQIDLOLQJRXWSXWZDVDFKLHYHGE\DVXSSOHPHQWDU\
OHPPDWL]DWLRQ FLUFXPVFULEHG RQO\ WR WKH ©XQNQRZQª ZRUGV %RWKOHPPDWL]HGJURXSVRIWH[WVZHUHLPSRUWHGLQDGDWDEDVHVWUXFWXUHG
DVIROORZV
7DEOH([DPSOHRIGDWDEDVHLQFOXGLQJOHPPDWL]HGFRUSRUD
*URXS
:RUN
,QSXW
*UDPPDWLF$QQRWDWLRQ
2XWSXW
$OE
'H9XQLYHUVDOLEXV 4XR
1DEO
TXL
$OE
'H9XQLYHUVDOLEXV (QLP
$'9
HQLP
$OE
'H9XQLYHUVDOLEXV QRELOLXV
$'-&20
QRELOLV
$OE
'H9XQLYHUVDOLEXV (W
&&
HW
%RQ
%UHYLORTXLXP
(W
&&
HW
%RQ
%UHYLORTXLXP
6LF
$'9
VLF
%RQ
%UHYLORTXLXP
GHVFULELW 9,1'
GHVFULER
%RQ
%UHYLORTXLXP
WRWXP
WRWXV
$'-
ƒ”‡–‹‰…‘’—–‡”•‘„Ž‡
ʹͶ͹
7KHIROORZLQJOHPPDVZHUHH[FOXGHGIURPRXUDQDO\VLV
FRQMXQFWLRQV&&
GLPRVWUDWLYHDGMHFWLYHVDQGSURQRXQV',026
UHODWLYHDGMHFWLYHVDQGSURQRXQV5(/
QXPHUDODGMHFWLYHVDQGSURQRXQV180
GHWHUPLQDWLYHDGMHFWLYHVDQGSURQRXQV'(7
SRVVHVVLYHDGMHFWLYHVDQGSURQRXQV326
DGYHUEV$'9
SUHSRVLWLRQV35(3
DEEUHYLDWLRQV$%%5
WKHUHPDLQLQJ©XQNQRZQªZRUGV
7KHWHUPVZHUHH[WUDFWHGIURPFROXPQ2XWSXWLQRUGHUWRFUHDWHWZRQHZ
FRUSRUD$OEOHPDQG%RQOHPLQFOXGLQJUHVSHFWLYHO\DQG
ZRUGV
%RWKFRUSRUDZHUHLPSRUWHGLQ7/$%DVRIWZDUHIUDPHZRUNLQFOXGLQJ
OLQJXLVWLF DQG VWDWLVWLFDO WRROV IRU FRQWHQW DQDO\VLV DQG WH[W PLQLQJ
'XULQJWKLVSKDVH$OEOHPDQG%RQOHPZHUHVHJPHQWHGLQWRHOHPHQWDU\
FRQWH[WV(&LQRUGHUWRKHOSXVHUH[SORUDWLRQDQGDERYHDOOWRPDNH
DQDO\VHVWKDWUHTXLUHWKHFRRFFXUUHQFHVFRPSXWDWLRQ
(DFKWRROIRUWH[WXDODQDO\VLVZDVDSSOLHGVHSDUDWHO\WR$OEOHPDQGWR
%RQOHP $Q H[DPLQDWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQFHV DQG VLPLODULWLHV EHWZHHQ WKH
RXWSXWVRIWKHWZRJURXSVRIWH[WVLVSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQRIWKHSDSHU
7HVWV
:RUGDVVRFLDWLRQVWRQRELOLVDQGQRELOLWDV
&RRFFXUUHQFHVWKDWPRVWUHFXUUHQWO\GHWHUPLQHWKHORFDOPHDQLQJRIRXU
.:,& QRELOLV DQG QRELOLWDV ZHUH SLFNHG XS &RVLQH LV WKH XVHG
DVVRFLDWLRQLQGH[RUVLPLODULW\FRHIILFLHQW
7KHRXWSXWRIWKLVSURFHVVLVVKRZQLQWKHIROORZLQJ
ʹͶͺ
‘ŽŽ‹
7DEOHUDQNLQJRIZRUGDVVRFLDWLRQVWRQRELOLVLQ$OEOHP
/(00$%
VXP
QRELOLWDV
KDEHR
DQLPD
QDWXUD
FRUSXV
FDXVD
ERQXV
SRVVXP
LQWHOOLJHQWLD
(&$% 352;,0,7<
7DEOHUDQNLQJRIZRUGDVVRFLDWLRQVWRQRELOLWDVLQ$OEOHP
/(00$% (&$% 352;,0,7<
VXP
QRELOLV
KDEHR
QDWXUD
ERQXV
FRUSXV
DQLPD
FDXVD
SRVVXP
UDWLR
ƒ”‡–‹‰…‘’—–‡”•‘„Ž‡
ʹͶͻ
7DEOHUDQNLQJRIZRUGDVVRFLDWLRQVWRQRELOLVLQ%RQOHP
/(00$% (&$% 352;,0,7<
VXP
QRELOLWDV
'HXV
KDEHR
UDWLR
YLGHR
SRVVXP
QDWXUD
FRUSXV
DQLPD
7DEOHUDQNLQJRIZRUGDVVRFLDWLRQVWRQRELOLWDVLQ%RQOHP
/(00$% (&$% 352;,0,7<
VXP
QRELOLV
'HXV
UDWLR
KDEHR
SRVVXP
QDWXUD
YLGHR
REMLFLR
FUHDWXUD
ʹͷͲ
‘ŽŽ‹
&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQ3DLUVRI.H\:RUGV
)RUHDFKRIWKHILUVWWHQZRUGVPRVWIUHTXHQWO\DVVRFLDWHGWRQRELOLVDQG
QRELOLWDVDQGLQFOXGHGLQWKHWDEOHVDQGZHFRQVLGHUHGWKHWHUPV
FKDUDFWHUL]LQJ WKHLU UHVSHFWLYH HOHPHQWDU\ FRQWH[WV ,Q VR GRLQJ WKH
SURSRVHGWDVNZDVWRYHULI\ZKLFKWHUPVDUHWKHPRVWVKDUHGZLWKQRELOLV
DQGQRELOLWDV7KHIROORZLQJGUDIWLOOXVWUDWHVRXUZD\RISURFHHGLQJ
)RU H[DPSOH WKH RXWSXWV RI WKH DQDO\VLV RQ WKH SDLUV RI ZRUGV DQLPD
QRELOLVDQGFRUSXVQRELOLVDUHKHUHWUDQVFULEHG
7DEOHDQLPDQRELOLVLQ$OEOHP
/(00$&
$66&$%
VXP
LQWHOOLJHQWLD
KDEHR
FDXVD
FRUSXV
QDWXUD
QRELOLWDV
IRUPD
RSHUDWLR
YLUWXV
ƒ”‡–‹‰…‘’—–‡”•‘„Ž‡
ʹͷͳ
7DEOHFRUSXVQRELOLVLQ$OEOHP
/(00$&
$66&$%
VXP
KDEHR
DQLPD
QDWXUD
QRELOLWDV
SRVVXP
FDXVD
YLGHR
PRYHR
LQIHUXV
7DEOHDQLPDQRELOLVLQ%RQOHP
/(00$&
$66&$%
VXP
KDEHR
QRELOLWDV
FRUSXV
UDWLR
'HXV
SRVVXP
QDWXUD
&KULVWXV
YLGHR
ʹͷʹ
‘ŽŽ‹
7DEOHFRUSXVQRELOLVLQ%RQOHP
/(00$&
$66&$%
VXP
KDEHR
DQLPD
QRELOLWDV
UDWLR
YLGHR
QDWXUD
IRUPD
'HXV
SDUYXV
5HVXOWV
,Q WKLV ZRUN ZH KDYH GHVFULEHG WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI HOHPHQWDU\
DVVRFLDWLRQLQGH[HVRQWZR GLVWLQFW FRUSRUDRI PHGLHYDOWH[WV$OEOHP
DQG %RQOHP VHOHFWHG E\ DVVXPLQJ WZR SHFXOLDU .:,& WKH DGMHFWLYH
QRELOLV DQG WKH QRXQ QRELOLWDV ,Q WKLV UHJDUG VRPH FRQFOXVLYH UHPDUNV
FDQEHIRUPXODWHGDVIROORZV
:LWKRXW KDYLQJ DQ\ SDUWLFXODU DFTXDLQWDQFH ZLWK$OEHUW WKH *UHDW¶V
WKRXJKW DQG KLV FRQFHSWLRQ RI QRELOLW\ RQH FDQ DVVHUW WKDW LW SOD\V
SUHVXPDEO\DPHDQLQJIXOIXQFWLRQLQKLVSV\FKRORJ\DQGQRHWLF$PRQJ
WKHWHQPRVWUHFXUUHQWO\WHUPVDVVRFLDWHGWRQRELOLVDQGQRELOLWDVDWOHDVW
WKUHH RI WKHP DQLPD LQWHOOLJHQWLD DQG UDWLR UHIHU SHFXOLDUO\ WR WKLV
HSLVWHPRORJLFDO ILHOG 7DEOH VKRZV WKH WRWDO RI (& VKDUHG E\
RFFXUUHQFHVRIRXU.:,&DQGWKHPHQWLRQHGZRUGV
ƒ”‡–‹‰…‘’—–‡”•‘„Ž‡
ʹͷ͵
7DEOH 1RHWLFDO3V\FKRORJLFDO (OHPHQWDU\ FRQWH[WV IRU $OEHUW WKH
*UHDW¶VQRELOLW\
1RELOLV
1RELOLWDV
1RHWLFDO3V\FKRORJLFDO
(&
RQWKHILUVW
WHQZRUG
DVVRFLDWLRQV
RQWKHILUVWWHQ
ZRUGDVVRFLDWLRQV
ZLWKRXWVXPDQG
KDEHR
,Q $OEHUW WKH *UHDW¶V LQVSHFWHG WH[WV D UHPDUNDEOH QXPEHU RI
HOHPHQWDU\FRQWH[WVRIQRELOLVDQGQRELOLWDVDUHDVVRFLDWHGWRWKHZRUGV
DQLPD DQG FRUSXV ZKLFK SDUWLFXODUO\ FKDUDFWHUL]H WKH DQWKURSRORJLFDO
GHEDWH
7DEOH$QWKURSRORJLFDOGHEDWH(&IRU$OEHUWWKH*UHDW¶VQRELOLW\
1RELOLV
1RELOLWDV
$QWKURSRORJLFDO
GHEDWH(&
RQWKHILUVWWHQ
ZRUGDVVRFLDWLRQV
RQWKHILUVWWHQZRUG
DVVRFLDWLRQVZLWKRXW
VXPDQGKDEHR
,QWKHOLJKWRIWKLVODVWFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKHVHFRQGVHULHVRIH[SHULPHQW
ZDVH[HPSOLILHGZLWKRXWSXWVUHODWHGWRSDLURIWHUPVDQLPDQRELOLVDQG
FRUSXVQRELOLV%\PDWFKLQJWKHZRUGVVKDUHGE\WKHWZRSDLUVRIWHUPV
WKHIROORZLQJWDEOHFDQEHGLVSOD\HG
ʹͷͶ
‘ŽŽ‹
7DEOH:RUGVVKDUHGE\WKHSDLURIZRUGVDQLPDQRELOLVFRUSXVQRELOLV
DQLPDQRELOLVFRUSXVQRELOLV
$QLPD
&DXVD
&RUSXV
)RUPD
+DEHR
,QIHUXV
,QWHOOLJHQWLD
0RYHR
1DWXUD
1RELOLWDV
2SHUDWLR
6XP
9LGHR
9LUWXV
$V WKH PDWWHU RI IDFWV DPRQJ WKH ZRUGV VKDUHG E\ WKH HOHPHQWDU\
FRQWH[WVRIDQLPDQRELOLVDQGFRUSXVQRELOLVRIWKHPLQLWDOLFDOUHDG\
HPHUJHGDVZRUGDVVRFLDWHGWRQRELOLVLQWKH7DEOH1RZH[FOXGLQJWKH
DOUHDG\TXRWHG LQWHOOLJHQWLD DQG UDWLR ZH KDYH HQRXJK HOHPHQWV WR
VXSSRVH WKDWDOVRWHUPVVXFKDVFDXVDQDWXUDDUHWREHFRQQHFWHGWRDQ
DQWKURSRORJLFDOGLVFXVVLRQ
&RQWUDVWLQJ ZLWK WKH KDELWXDO FRQYLQFWLRQV QRELOLW\ LV QRW KHUH
SULQFLSDOO\FRQQHFWHGWRHWKLFDORUSROLWLFDOILHOGV7KLVVHHPVWRVXJJHVW
WKDWQRHWLFDODQGDQWKURSRORJLFDOFRQWH[WVFRXOGEHDVRUWRIVWDUWLQJSRLQW
WRLQWHUSUHWWKHXVHVRIQRELOLW\SURSRVHGLQRWKHUNLQGRIPHGLHYDOZRUNV
7KHDQDO\VLVRQ%RQDYHQWXUH¶VWH[WVSHUPLWVWRIRUPXODWHDGGLWLRQDODQG
FRPSDUDWLYHREVHUYDWLRQV
2IFRXUVHWKHPRVWVLJQLILFDQFHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ$OEHUWWKH*UHDW¶V
DQG%RQDYHQWXUH¶VQRWLRQRIQRELOLW\UHVLGHVLQWKHSUHVHQFH±DPRQJWKH
ZRUGDVVRFLDWHGLQWKHHOHPHQWDU\FRQWH[WVRI%RQOHP±RIWHUPVVXFKDV
ƒ”‡–‹‰…‘’—–‡”•‘„Ž‡
ʹͷͷ
'HXV DQG FUHDWXUD 7KH IDFW WKDW VLPLODU RU DQDORJRXV WHUPV 'HXV
&KULVWXV HPHUJH DOVR LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH SDLUV RI ZRUG DQLPD
QRELOLVFRUSXVQRELOLV FRUURERUDWHG RXU VHQVDWLRQ 7KHVH SHFXOLDU
DVVRFLDWLRQV FDQ EH FRQQHFWHG WR WZR NLQGV RI UHDVRQV D D GLIIHUHQW
VXEMHFW RI WKH ZULWLQJV LQFOXGHG LQ WKH WZR FRUSRUD E D GLVVLPLODU
FRQFHSWLRQRIQRELOLW\
D $OEFRUSXV LQFOXGHV VHYHUDO FRPPHQWDULHV RQ$ULVWRWOH ZKLOH %RQ
FRUSXV LV IXQGDPHQWDOO\ FRPSRVHG E\ WKHRORJLFDO ZRUNV DPRQJ WKH
RWKHUVWKH&RPPHQWDU\RQWKH6HQWHQFHV
E$FFRUGLQJWRWKH%RQDYHQWXUHPDVWHUWKHQRELOLW\LVHYLGHQWO\UHODWHG
WRDWKHRORJLFDOSHUVSHFWLYHWKDWLQ$OEHUW¶VZULWLQJVVHHPVWREHDEVHQW
HYHQ LI DPRQJ WKH WH[W LQFOXGHG LQ $OEOHP WKHUH DUH DOVR WKHRORJLFDO
ZULWLQJV VXFK DV 'H VDFUDPHQWLV 'H UHVXUUHFWLRQH 6XPPD PLUDELOL
VFLHQWLD'HL
(YDOXDWLRQDQGFRQFOXVLRQ
7KHVWDUWLQJSRLQWWKDWZHKDYHDVVXPHGWRWHVWWRROVIRUDQDXWRPDWLFDO
WH[WSURFHVVLQJ RI PHGLHYDO ZRUNV LV GH IDFWR W\SLFDO DPRQJ WKH
PHGLHYLVWLF VFKRODUV LQ RUGHU WR FLUFXPVFULEH WKH VLJQLILFDQFH DQG WKH
IXQFWLRQSOD\HGE\DFRQFHSWZLWKLQDJURXSRIWH[WVLQRXUFDVHQRELOLV
DQGQRELOLWDVDOORFFXUUHQFHVLQFOXGLQJWKHGHVLJQDWHG.:,&DUHWDNHQ
LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ +RZHYHU LQ WKH PRVW FDVHV WKLV LQLWLDO WH[WXDO
DSSURDFKLVLPPHGLDWHO\QHJOHFWHGDIWHULGHQWLI\LQJDVXEVHWRIWKHPRVW
PHDQLQJIXO RFFXUUHQFHV ZLWK WKHLU SRVVLEOH VRXUFHV WKH DQDO\VLV LV
XVXDOO\ DGGUHVVHG RQ D WKHRUHWLFDO OHFWXUH RI WKH GDWD ,Q VR GRLQJ DOO
OH[LFDO DQG VHPDQWLF SURSHUWLHV HPHUJLQJ IURP WH[WV DUH QRW HIIHFWLYHO\
FDSLWDOL]HG 2Q WKH FRQWUDU\ LQ RXU FDVH ZH KDYH REVHUYHG KRZ DQ
DXWRPDWLF RU VHPLDXWRPDWLF DQDO\VLV RQ D JURXS RI WH[WV FDQ UHYHDO
LQWHUHVWLQJ DVSHFWV RI WKHLU VXEMHFWV ZLWKRXW ORVLQJ VLJKW RI WKH WH[WXDO
EDVLV
$VWKHPDWWHURIIDFWVWKHHOHPHQWDU\DOJRULWPVDSSOLHGKHUHUHSUHVHQWV
RQO\DQH[DPSOHRIWKHWRROVWKDWFRXOGEHH[SORLWHGRQDWH[WFRUSXV,Q
DQ\FDVHWKHDGYDQWDJHVIRUDPHGLHYLVWLFVWXG\DUHWDQJLEOH
ʹͷ͸
‘ŽŽ‹
LWLVSRVVLEOHWRHVWDEOLVKWKHFRQWH[WVRIXVHRIDSDUWLFXODU
QRWLRQ DQG WKHQ WR IRUPXODWH ZHOOIRXQGHG VXSSRVLWLRQV
UHJDUGLQJLWVVLJQLILFDQFH
WKH VXEMHFW DQG WKH FRQWHQWV RI ZRUN RU RI D JURXS RI
ZULWLQJVFDQEHGHILQHG
GLIIHUHQFHV DQG LQIOXHQFHV DPRQJ WZR RU PRUH WH[WV FDQ
EHHYDOXDWHGQRWRQO\LQWKHOLJKWRIDVWDWLVWLFDOLQYHQWDU\
RI WKH VKDUHG RFFXUUHQFHV EXW DOVR E\ FRPSDULQJ
HOHPHQWDU\VHPDQWLFFRQWH[WV
2IFRXUVHWULFN\DVSHFWVDUHQRWPLVVLQJ
WKH EHVW UHVXOWV RI WKLV NLQG RI DQDO\VLV DUH REWDLQHG E\
FRQVLGHULQJ WHUPV QRW SDUWLFXODUO\ IUHTXHQW IRU H[DPSOH
QRELOLV DQG QRELOLWDV %\ FRQWUDVW LW ZRXOG EH YHU\
GLIILFXOWWRLQWHUSUHWWKHRXWSXWVRIDQDO\VLVRQZRUGVPRUH
UHFXUULQJVXFKDVIRUPDHVVHFDXVDHWF
DWWKHVDPHWLPHDQH[DPLQDWLRQRIDYHU\FLUFXPVFULEHG
QXPEHU RI RFFXUUHQFHV RIIHUV SUHVXPDEO\ QRW VRIDLWKIXO
UHVXOWV,QIDFWLQWKHVHSDUWLFXODUFDVHVVWXG\WKHQRWLRQ
RI©IUHTXHQF\ªVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGLQDUHODWLYHDQGQRW
LQDQDEVROXWHVHQVH
IRUVRPHZRUGVDSRVVLEOHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIPHDQLQJLVWR
WDNHLQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQ
VRPHWLPHV WKH RFFXUUHQFHV DUH LQFOXGHG LQ TXRWDWLRQV RU
WUDQVFULSWLRQVDQGWKHUHIRUHWKH\GR QRWDOZD\VUHSUHVHQW
WKHRSLQLRQRIWKHDXWKRU
7R FRQFOXGH WKH H[SHULPHQW UHSRUWHG KHUH LV HYLGHQWO\ WRR UHVWULFWHG WR
JLYHDQH[KDXVWLYHDQVZHUWRWKHTXHVWLRQUDLVHGDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIRXU
LQYHVWLJDWLRQ FRXOG FRPSXWHU DQDO\VLV SURYLGH FRQWLQXLW\ EHWZHHQ
SKLORORJ\ DQG SKLORVRSK\ LQ WKH PHGLHYDO VWXGLHV" +RZHYHU LW RIIHUV
LQGLFDWLYH VXJJHVWLRQV ZKLFK DUH ZRUWK WR EH UHFDSLWXODWHG ,I D
SKLORORJLFDODSSURDFKLVFRQVLGHUHGPRUHREMHFWLYHWKDQDSKLORVRSKLFDO
UHIOHFWLRQDQDXWRPDWLFVHPDQWLFDQDO\VLVRIWKHWH[WVJLYHVIXUWKHUPRUH
DQ XQGHUWDNLQJ RI WKLV SUHUHTXLVLWH EXW DOVR KLJKOLJKWV D VHULHV RI QHZ
LQIRUPDWLRQ HPHUJLQJ IURP WKH OH[LFDO XQLWV ZKLFK GLVSOD\ VRPHWKLQJ
DERXW WKH FRQWHQWV RI D FRUSXV RI ZULWLQJV &RRFFXUUHQFHV :RUG
ƒ”‡–‹‰…‘’—–‡”•‘„Ž‡
ʹͷ͹
DVVRFLDWLRQV ,QGH[HV RI SUR[LPLW\ DUH RQO\ VRPH RI WKH HOHPHQWDU\
RXWSXWVRQZKLFKDQ\VFKRODURIPHGLHYDOSKLORVRSK\FDQEDVHDGGLWLRQDO
LPSDUWLDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV RQ WKH OH[LFDO SURSHUWLHV RI D WH[W EHIRUH
H[SUHVVLQJ KLV WKHRUHWLFDO FRQYLQFWLRQ 6WDUWLQJ IURP WKHVH SUHPLVHV LQ
WKHIXWXUHLWZLOOEHSRVVLEOHWRGHVLJQDXWRPDWLFWRROVIRUWKHDWWULEXWLRQ
RIDQRQ\PRXVPHGLHYDOWH[WVLQWKHOLJKWRIWKHOH[LFDOVLPLODULWLHVDPRQJ
WKHHOHPHQWDU\FRQWH[WV%XWE\DGRSWLQJWKHVDPHDSSURDFKZHFDQQRW
FRPSOHWHO\ H[FOXGH WKDW FRPSXWHU FRQWULEXWHV WR DFKLHYH DOVR PRUH
HODERUDWH LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU H[DPSOH GLVFULPLQDWLQJ WKH ZD\ RI UDLVLQJ D
SUREOHPRURIIRUPXODWLQJLWDPRQJWZRRUPRUHFRUSRUDRIWH[WV7KHVH
VXJJHVWLRQVVRXQGIXWXULVWLFEXWDOVRLQPDQ\RWKHUFLUFXPVWDQFHVZHDUH
SURYLGLQJ URRP IRU FRPSXWHUV 3HUKDSV WKH\ ZLOO EHFRPH WKH QHZ
QDUUDWRUVRIWKHKLVWRU\RIPHGLHYDOSKLORVRSK\
‘–‡
ͳ
Š‹••–—†›‹•ƒ’ƒ”–‹ƒŽ†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–‘ˆ–Š‡”‡•‡ƒ”…Š’”‘Œ‡…–‡•–‹‡†‹‡˜ƒŽ‹‡
ƒ’’‡ ‘–‘Ž‘‰‹…Š‡ †‹‰‹–ƒŽ‹Ǥ Ž …‘…‡––‘ †‹ ‘„‹Ž‹–ƒ• …‘‡ •’‡…—Ž— ’‡” —ƒ
™‡„ǦƒƒŽ›•‹• †‡ŽŽ‡ –‡‘”‹‡ †‡ŽŽǯ‹–‡ŽŽ‡––‘ †‡Ž •‡…‘Ž‘ǡ •—„‹––‡† —†‡” ƒ
’‘•–Ǧ†‘…ˆ‡ŽŽ‘™•Š‹’‹ʹͲͳͳȋ”‘˜‹…‹ƒ—–‘‘ƒ†‹ ”‡–‘ȌǤ™‘—Ž†Ž‹‡
–‘ –Šƒ ”‘ˆǤ Žˆ‹‘ ‡””ƒ”ƒ ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–› ‘ˆ ‹ŽƒȌ ˆ‘” Š‹• ’”‡…‹‘—•
…‘””‡…–‹‘•ƒ†…‘‡–•Ǥ
ʹ
‘‰ –Š‡ —‡”‘—• ‡šƒ’Ž‡• ‘ˆ †ƒ–ƒ„ƒ•‡•ǡ › ”‡…‡– ‹ƒ
ȋKWWSQRELOLWDVOHWWXQLWQLW•–”—‡–‹ǤŠ–ŽȌ‹•™‘”–ŠŠ‡”‡–‘„‡‡–‹‘‡†Ǥ
͵
–Š‹•’‡”•’‡…–‹˜‡ǡ•‡˜‡”ƒŽ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ”‡•‡ƒ”…Š’”‘Œ‡…–•Šƒ˜‡„‡‡—†‡”–ƒ‡Ǥ
‡‡ǡ‡•’‡…‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ‘•–…–‹‘ͷͶͶͻȋŠ––’ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ‡†‹‘‡˜‘‡—”‘’‡‘Ǥ‡—ȀȌǤ
Ͷ
Ž„‡”–—• ƒ‰—•ǡ ’‡”ƒ ‘‹ƒǡ ‡†‹–‹‘ ‘Ž‘‹‡•‹•ǡ •…Š‡†‘”ˆˆǡ ò•–‡”
ͳͻͷͳǦʹͲͲͶǤ
ͷ
‘ƒ˜‡–—”ƒǡ’‡”ƒ‘‹ƒǡ†Žƒ”ƒ•“—ƒ•ȋ—ƒ”ƒ……Š‹Ȍǡ’”‘’‡Ž‘”‡–‹ƒ
ǣ‡š›’‘‰”ƒ’Š‹ƒ‘ŽŽ‡‰‹‹Ǥ‘ƒ˜‡–—”ƒ‡ǡͳͺͺʹǦͳͻͲʹ
͸
Š––’ǣȀȀ†‡‘ǤƒŽ„‡”–—•Ǧƒ‰—•Ǧ‘Ž‹‡Ǥ†‡Ȁ
ʹͷͺ
‘ŽŽ‹
͹
Š––’ǣȀȀ…Ž–Ǥ„”‡’‘Ž‹•Ǥ‡–ȀŽŽ–ƒȀ‡ˆƒ—Ž–Ǥƒ•’š
ͺ
‹•–‹…–‹‘ „‡–™‡‡ ƒ”‰—‡–ƒ ƒ† ƒ† …‘–”ƒ ‹• ‘– Š‡”‡ –ƒ‡ ‹–‘
…‘•‹†‡”ƒ–‹‘Ǥ
ͻ
–‘’™‘”†•ƒ”‡‘–‹…Ž—†‡†Ǥ
ͳͲ Š––’ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ…‹•Ǥ—‹Ǧ—‡…Š‡Ǥ†‡Ȁ̱•…Š‹†Ȁ–‘‘Ž•Ȁ”‡‡ƒ‰‰‡”Ȁ
ͳͳ Š––’ǣȀȀ–Žƒ„Ǥ‹–Ȁ‡Ȁ’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘Ǥ’Š’
ͳʹ Ǧ …‘•‹†‡”• ƒ ‡Ž‡‡–ƒ”› …‘–‡š– –‘ „‡ ‡˜‡”› •‡“—‡…‡ ‘ˆ ™‘”†•
‹–‡””—’–‡†„›ˆ—ŽŽ•–‘’ƒ†…ƒ””‹ƒ‰‡”‡–—”ǡ™Š‘•‡†‹‡•‹‘•ƒ”‡‹ˆ‡”‹‘”
–‘ͶͲͲ…Šƒ”ƒ…–‡”•Ǥ‹–Š‡…ƒ•‡™Š‡”‡ǡ™‹–Š‹–Š‡ƒš‹—Ž‡‰–Šǡƒˆ—ŽŽ•–‘’
‹• ‘– ’”‡•‡–ǡ ‹– •‡ƒ”…Š‡• ˆ‘” ‘–Š‡” ’—…–—ƒ–‹‘ ƒ”• ‹ –Š‡ ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰
‘”†‡”ȋǫǨǢǣǡȌǤˆ‘‡ƒ”‡ˆ‘—†ǡ‹–’‡”ˆ‘”••‡‰‡–ƒ–‹‘‘–Š‡„ƒ•‹•‘ˆƒ
•–ƒ–‹•–‹…ƒŽ…”‹–‡”‹‘ǡ„—–™‹–Š‘—–…—––‹‰–Š‡Ž‡š‹…ƒŽ—‹–•Ǥ
ͳ͵ ‘Ǧ‘……—””‡…‡•ǡ –Š‡ǡ ƒ”‡ “—ƒ–‹–‹‡• ™Š‹…Š ”‡•—Ž– ˆ”‘ ƒ …‘’—–ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ
Š‘™ƒ›–‹‡•–™‘‘”‘”‡Ž‡š‹…ƒŽ—‹–•ƒ”‡’”‡•‡––‘‰‡–Š‡”‹–Š‡•ƒ‡
‡Ž‡‡–ƒ”›…‘–‡š–•ȋȌǤ
ͳͶ  Ǧ –Š‡ ƒ••‘…‹ƒ–‹‘ ‹†‡š‡• ȋ‘” •‹‹Žƒ”‹–› …‘‡ˆˆ‹…‹‡–•Ȍ ƒ”‡ —•‡† –‘
ƒƒŽ›•‡ –Š‡ …‘Ǧ‘……—””‡…‡•‘ˆ –Š‡ Ž‡š‹…ƒŽ —‹–• ȋȌ ‹•‹†‡ –Š‡ ‡Ž‡‡–ƒ”›
…‘–‡š–•ȋȌǡ–Šƒ–‹•–‘ƒƒŽ›•‡„‹ƒ”›†ƒ–ƒ‘ˆ–Š‡’”‡•‡…‡Ȁƒ„•‡…‡–›’‡Ǥ
Ǥǡ
 –Š‹• •’‡…‹ˆ‹… …‹”…—•–ƒ…‡ǡ ™‡ ƒ†‘’–‡† …‘•‹‡ ˆ‘”—Žƒǣ
‘‘Ž• ˆ‘” ‡š– ƒŽ›•‹•Ǥ •‡”ǯ• ƒ—ƒŽǡ Š––’ǣȀȀ–Žƒ„Ǥ‹–Ȁ‹–Ȁ†‘™Ž‘ƒ†Ǥ’Š’ǡ ’Ǥ
ʹͲͲ
ͳͷ ƒ‹‰ ‹• ‡š’”‡••‡† ‹ –Š‡ ˆ‹”•– …‘Ž—Ǥ ‹…Ž—†‡• –Š‡ ™‘”†•
ƒ••‘…‹ƒ–‡† –‘ ‘„‹Ž‹• ȋ–ƒ„Ž‡• Ͷƒ† ͸Ȍ ƒ† –‘ ‘„‹Ž‹–ƒ• ȋ–ƒ„Ž‡• ͷ ƒ† ͹ȌǤ ȋȌ‹…Ž—†‡•–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ‡Ž‡‡–ƒ”›…‘–‡š–••Šƒ”‡†„›‘„‹Ž‹•ȋ–ƒ„Ž‡•
Ͷƒ†͸Ȍ‘”‘„‹Ž‹–ƒ•ȋ–ƒ„Ž‡•ͷƒ†͹Ȍ™‹–ŠǤ‹†‹…ƒ–‡•
ƒ‡“—‹˜ƒŽ‡…‡‹†‡š‘„–ƒ‹‡†„›†‹˜‹†‹‰–Š‡‹”•“—ƒ”‡†…‘Ǧ‘……—””‡…‡•„›
–Š‡ ’”‘†—…– ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ‘……—””‡…‡•Ǥ ƒ–ƒ ™‡”‡ …Žƒ••‹ˆ‹‡† ƒ• †‡…”‡ƒ•‹‰ ȋȌǤ
ƒ”‡–‹‰…‘’—–‡”•‘„Ž‡
ʹͷͻ
ͳ͸ ƒ‹‰‹•‡š’”‡••‡†‹–Š‡ˆ‹”•–…‘Ž—Ǥ‹…Ž—†‡•–Š‡™‘”†•‘•–
ˆ”‡“—‡–Ž› •Šƒ”‡† „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ ‡Ž‡‡–ƒ”› …‘–‡š–• ‘ˆ ƒ‹ƒ ƒ† ‘„‹Ž‹•
ȋ–ƒ„Ž‡• ͺ ƒ† ͳͲȌ ƒ† ‘ˆ …‘”’—• ƒ† ‘„‹Ž‹• ȋ–ƒ„Ž‡• ͻ ƒ† ͳͳȌǤ ȋȌ
‹…Ž—†‡•–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ‡Ž‡‡–ƒ”›…‘–‡š–••Šƒ”‡†Ǥƒ–ƒ™‡”‡…Žƒ••‹ˆ‹‡†ƒ•
†‡…”‡ƒ•‹‰ȋȌǤ‘•‹‡‹•–Š‡ƒ†‘’–‡†ˆ‘”—ŽƒǤ