Correlations Between Biopsychosocial Variables and Low Back Pain

&RUUHODWLRQV%HWZHHQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHV
DQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
'LVVHUWDWLRQ'RFWRUDO7KHVLV
.LPEHUO\$)HOGW
3DQRUDPDZHJ
$LWUDQJ*HUPDQ\
%HWUHXXQJ$GYLVRUV
3URI'U0$PHODQJ
3URI'U7)\GULFK
5XSUHFKW.DUOV8QLYHUVLWlW
3V\FKRORJLVFKHV,QVWLWXW
+DXSWVWUDVVH
+HLGHOEHUJ*HUPDQ\
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
2
'DQNVDJXQJ
$QGLHVHU6WHOOHP|FKWHLFKPLFKJDQ]KHU]OLFKEHLDOOMHQHQEHGDQNHQGLHGLH
(QWVWHKXQJGLHVHU$UEHLWEHJOHLWHWKDEHQ
0HLQEHVRQGHUHU'DQNJLOW+HUUQ3URI'U0DQIUHG$PHODQJIUGLHZHUWYROOH
8QWHUVWW]XQJ'LHDQUHJHQGHQ'LVNXVVLRQHQGLHYLHOHQKLOIUHLFKHQXQG
NRQVWUXNWLYHQ5FNPHOGXQJHQVRZLHGLHPRWLYLHUHQGHQ*HVSUlFKHKDEHQVHKU
]XP*HOLQJHQGLHVHU$UEHLWEHLJHWUDJHQ
+HUUQ3URI'U7KRPDV)\GULFKGHUVLFKIUHXQGOLFKHUZHLVHEHUHLWHUNOlUWHGLH
=ZHLWEHWUHXXQJGHU$UEHLW]XEHUQHKPHQ
*DQ]EHVRQGHUVGDQNHLFKPHLQHP0DQQXQGPHLQHQ(OWHUQGLHPLFKXQHUPGOLFK
HUPXQWHUWHQXQGXQWHUVWW]WHQ
)UGHQVHHOLVFKHQ%HLVWDQGGDQNHLFKDXHURUGHQWOLFK'U&ODXGLD6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV
XQG'U1DGMD+LUVFKHQEHUJHU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
&217(176
$%675$&7
,1752'8&7,21
'HILQLWLRQRI3DLQ
)XQFWLRQRI3DLQ
3DLQ3URFHVVLQJ
$FXWHYHUVXV&KURQLF3DLQ
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI/RZ%DFN3DLQ
%LRPHFKDQLFVRI/RZ%DFN3DLQ
6RFLDO(SLGHPLRORJLFDO'DWD
&URVV&XOWXUDO&RPSDULVRQV
2FFXSDWLRQDO6HWWLQJV
%,236<&+262&,$/02'(/2)3$,1
+LVWRULFDO'HYHORSPHQWVLQ3DLQ5HVHDUFK
7KH%LRPHGLFDO0RGHO
*DWH&RQWURO7KHRU\
9XOQHUDELOLW\'LDWKHVLV6WUHVV0RGHO
6WUHVV
%HKDYLRUDO)DFWRUV
$IIHFWLYH)DFWRUV
&RJQLWLYH)DFWRUV
6XPPDU\%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO0RGHORI3DLQ
&2025%,',7,(6
3HUVRQDOLW\)DFWRUV
3HUVRQDOLW\'LVRUGHUVDQG&KURQLF3DLQ
1HJDWLYH(PRWLRQDQG&KURQLF3DLQ
&$86$/$775,%87,216$%287',6($6(216(7
6XEMHFWLYH7KHRULHV
$WWULEXWLRQV
&RSLQJ
%HOLHIV
%ODPH
7+(52/(2)*(1'(5$1')$0,/<
35(9(17,21$1'75($70(17
*HQGHU'LIIHUHQFHV
7KH5ROHRIWKH)DPLO\
3UHYHQWLRQ
7UHDWPHQW
3DLQ&RQWURO7HFKQLTXHV
3
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
&217(176
/,7(5$785(5(9,(:5,6.)$&72562)
&855(175(/(9$1&()257+,6678'<
7UDQVLWLRQWR&KURQLFLW\
3DLQ,QWHQVLW\
$JH
6RFLRHFRQRPLF6WDWXVDQG(GXFDWLRQ
*HQGHU
3K\VLFDO([HUFLVH+DELWV
6PRNLQJ+DELWV
'HSUHVVLRQ
-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
&RPRUELGLWLHV
$,02)7+(678'<
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO0RGHO
&RPRUELGLWLHV
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW'LVHDVH2QVHW
0(7+2'
3DUWLFLSDQWV
0HDQV*HQGHU$JH1DWLRQDOLW\/HYHORI(GXFDWLRQ
5DWHRI5HWXUQ
3URFHGXUHDQG5HFUXLWPHQW
4XHVWLRQQDLUH0DWHULDOV
4XHVWLRQQDLUH³%DFN3DLQ´
4XHVWLRQQDLUH³1R%DFN3DLQ´
5HVHDUFK'HVLJQ
)DFWRUV-HRSDUGL]LQJ,QWHUQDODQG([WHUQDO9DOLGLW\
5(68/76
*HQHUDO'HVFULSWLRQRIWKH([SHULPHQWDO
DQG&RQWUROJURXSV
6DPSOH6L]HV0HDQ$JH(GXFDWLRQ
6PRNLQJ+DELWV3K\VLFDO([HUFLVH+DELWV
3DLQUHODWHG'HVFULSWLRQRIWKH3DUWLFLSDQW6DPSOH
&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\
3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV
7HVWLQJIRU'LIIHUHQFHV%HWZHHQWKH([SHULPHQWDO
DQG&RQWURO*URXSV
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS7RJHWKHU
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS6HSDUDWH
&RPELQHG9DULDEOH&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\
7HVWLQJIRU6LJQLILFDQFH
4
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
5
&217(176
([SODLQLQJWKH9DULDQFHLQ&KURQLFLW\DQG,QWHQVLW\
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV&KURQLFLW\
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV,QWHQVLW\
([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ([SHULHQFH
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH%DFN3DLQ*URXS
$VVHVVLQJWKH(IIHFWRIWKH3UHGLFWRU9DULDEOHV
RQ3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVHV
&RPRUELGLWLHV
)UHTXHQFLHV
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH&RPRUELGLWLHV3UHVHQWDQG3DVW
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS7RJHWKHU
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH&RPRUELGLWLHV
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS6HSDUDWH
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VHVIRU&RPRUELGLWLHV
,WHPV$VVHVVLQJ&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
0HDQV,WHP%DVLV
8QLYDULDWH$QDO\VHV,WHPV$VVHVVLQJ&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW2QVHW
RI%DFN3DLQ&DQFHU+HDUW'LVHDVHDQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
8QLYDULDWH$QDO\VHV,WHPV$VVHVVLQJ&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW2QVHW
RI%DFN3DLQ&DQFHU+HDUW'LVHDVHDQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
3ULQFLSDO&RPSRQHQWV$QDO\VLV
$QDO\VLVRI9DULDQFH*URXS['LVHDVH
$QDO\VLVRI9DULDQFH*URXS[,WHP
6XPPDU\RIWKH0DLQ5HVXOWV%DVHGRQ
WKH5HVHDUFK+\SRWKHVHV
',6&866,21
6800$5<
5()(5(1&(6
$33(1',;
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
6
7DEOHV
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
6WXG\9DULDEOHV
5DWHRI5HWXUQ
*URXS)UHTXHQFLHV
&RPRUELGLW\6FDOH$VVHVVHG'LVHDVHV
,WHP$VVHVVLQJWKH&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOH62&
'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH
-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOH
([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ([SHULHQFH
*URXS)UHTXHQFLHV
&KURQLFLW\RIWKH3DLQ([SHULHQFH
,QWHQVLW\RIWKH3DLQ([SHULHQFH
0HDQV6WDQGDUG'HYLDWLRQV,QWHUFRUUHODWLRQVDQG&RHIILFLHQW$OSKD
5HOLDELOLW\(VWLPDWHVIRUWKH3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VHV3UHGLFWRU6FDOHVDQG3DLQ'HVFULSWLRQ
&KURQLFLW\
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VHV3UHGLFWRU6FDOHVDQG3DLQ'HVFULSWLRQ
,QWHQVLW\
0HDQ6FRUHV6WDQGDUG'HYLDWLRQVIRU*URXS%DFN3DLQYHUVXV
1R%DFN3DLQRQWKH3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV
6XPPDU\7DEOHRI6LJQLILFDQW&KL6TXDUH7HVWV%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS7RJHWKHU
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG,QWHQVLW\
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG$JH
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG*HQGHU
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
6XPPDU\7DEOHRI6LJQLILFDQW&KL6TXDUH7HVWV%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS6HSDUDWH
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG$JH%DFN3DLQ*URXS
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHV3DVW
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG*HQGHU%DFN3DLQ*URXS
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ%DFN3DLQ*URXS
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHV3UHVHQW
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHV3DVW
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG6PRNLQJ
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG,QWHQVLW\
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VHV&RPELQHG9DULDEOH&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV&KURQLFLW\
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
7DEOHV
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV,QWHQVLW\
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH3DLQ,QWHQVLW\DQG,WHP6NLQ6HQVLWLYLW\
3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVHVIRUWKH&DXVHRI3DWLHQWV¶%DFN3DLQ
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH*HQGHUDQG3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVLV
³3V\FKRVRPDWLF2ULJLQ´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVHVDQG$JH
)UHTXHQF\7DEOHIRU&RPRUELGLWLHVLQWKH3UHVHQWDQGLQWKH3DVW
6HSDUDWHIRUWKH%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQGWKH1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&RPRUELGLWLHV3UHVHQWDQG$JH
&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&RPRUELGLWLHV3UHVHQWDQG$JH
%DFN3DLQ*URXS
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLVIRU&RPRUELGLWLHV
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV0HDQ6FRUHVDQG6WDQGDUG'HYLDWLRQV
5HSRUWHGRQDQ,WHP%DVLV
8QLYDULDWH$QDO\VHV$VVHVVLQJWKH5HODWLRQVKLS%HWZHHQ&DXVDO
$WWULEXWLRQ$ERXW2QVHWRI%DFN3DLQ&DQFHU+HDUW'LVHDVHDQG
&RPRULELGLWHV3UHVHQW
8QLYDULDWH$QDO\VHV$VVHVVLQJWKH5HODWLRQVKLS%HWZHHQ&DXVDO
$WWULEXWLRQ$ERXW2QVHWRI%DFN3DLQ&DQFHU+HDUW'LVHDVHDQG
&RPRULELGLWHV3DVW
5RWDWHG)DFWRU3DWWHUQDQG)LQDO&RPPXQDOLW\(VWLPDWHVIURP3ULQFLSDO
&RPSRQHQW$QDO\VLVRI&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRUWKH2QVHWRI%DFN3DLQ
5RWDWHG)DFWRU3DWWHUQDQG)LQDO&RPPXQDOLW\(VWLPDWHVIURP3ULQFLSDO
&RPSRQHQW$QDO\VLVRI&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRUWKH2QVHWRI
+HDUW'LVHDVH
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³-REGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHGRXW´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³'LVDSSRLQWPHQWRYHUXQDFFRPSOLVKHGOLIHJRDOV´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQVWDQWSUREOHPVLQWKHIDPLO\´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³5HFXUULQJDQ[LHWLHVDERXWWKHIXWXUH´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³+RSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQVWDQWVWUHVVDQGWLPHSUHVVXUH´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRUGLYRUFH´
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
7DEOHV
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
7DEOH
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³,QDELOLW\WRH[SUHVVIXU\DQGDQJHU´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³/RQHOLQHVVDQGORVVRIVRFLDOFRQWDFWV´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\LJQRULQJRQH¶VRZQQHHGV´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³2IWHQQRWVKRZLQJHPRWLRQVVXFKDVVRUURZDQG GLVDSSRLQWPHQW´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³+LJKH[SHFWDWLRQVIRURQHVHOI´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQWLQXRXVHPRWLRQDOLQVWDELOLW\DQGVHQVLWLYHQHVV´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQWLQXRXVGHSUHVVHGPRRG´
$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³7UDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWV´
[$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU
'LVHDVH2QVHW%DFN3DLQ
[$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU
'LVHDVH2QVHW&DQFHU
[$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU
'LVHDVH2QVHW+HDUW'LVHDVH
8
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
)LJXUHV
)LJXUH
)LJXUH
)LJXUH
)LJXUH
)LJXUH
)LJXUH
)LJXUH
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOH0HDQ6FRUHV%HWZHHQ*URXSV
'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH0HDQ6FRUHV%HWZHHQ*URXSV
-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOH0HDQ6FRUHV%HWZHHQ*URXSV
3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVHVRI%DFN3DLQ2ULJLQ
&RPRUELGLWLHV)UHTXHQFLHV
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW'LVHDVH2QVHW%DFN3DLQ&DQFHU+HDUW
'LVHDVH0HDQ6FRUHV,WHPV±
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW'LVHDVH2QVHW%DFN3DLQ&DQFHU+HDUW
'LVHDVH0HDQ6FRUHV,WHPV±
9
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
10
&RUUHODWLRQV%HWZHHQ%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ $%675$&7
7KLVSDSHUH[DPLQHVWKHFRUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQELRSV\FKRVRFLDOYDULDEOHVDQGORZ
EDFNSDLQ*HUPDQIHPDOHVDQG*HUPDQPDOHV1 DOOSDLQSDWLHQWV
IURPRXWSDWLHQWSUDFWLFHVFRPSOHWHGDEDWWHU\RITXHVWLRQQDLUHVDVVHVVLQJWKHLU
SDLQH[SHULHQFHFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\FRPRUELGLWLHVDQGFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQV
DERXWGLVHDVHRQVHW)LQGLQJVUHSRUWHGKHUHVXSSRUWSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKLQWKDWVRPH
ELRSV\FKRVRFLDOIDFWRUVDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKORZEDFNSDLQ6SHFLILFDOO\
WKHVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVIRXQGIRUFKURQLFEDFNSDLQZHUHKLJKHUDJHORZHU
HGXFDWLRQDQGKLJKHUGHSUHVVLRQ)RUKLJKLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQVLJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSVZHUHIRXQGIRUIHPDOHVSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKORZHUHGXFDWLRQDQGKLJKHU
GHSUHVVLRQ:KHQDQDO\]LQJWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVDPSOHWRJHWKHUSUHVHQWDQGSDVW
FRPRUELGLWLHVZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKSDLQFKURQLFLW\DQGSUHVHQW
FRPRUELGLWLHVZHUHDOVRVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKSDLQLQWHQVLW\+RZHYHU
DQDO\VHVUHYHDOHGQRVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWRUSDVW
IRUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS2OGHU!\HDUVRIDJHEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHG
VLJQLILFDQWO\PRUHSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHV$QDO\VHVRIWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDERXW
GLVHDVHRQVHWUHYHDOHGWKDWEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVFRQVLGHUHG³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHG
RXW´WREHSDUWLFXODUO\UHOHYDQWWRWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVH6KRZQWKURXJKWKH
FRQVLVWHQWO\KLJKHUPHDQVDQGFRQVLVWHQWO\ORZHUVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVDOO
SDUWLFLSDQWVFRQVLGHUHGWKHSHUVRQDOLW\YDULDEOHVRIWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQLWHPVWREH
LPSRUWDQWIRUWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVH3DUWLFLSDQWVVHHPHGWREHOHVVFHUWDLQZKLFK
SHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVSOD\DUROHLQWKHRQVHWRIORZEDFNSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
11
,1752'8&7,21
7KHTXHVWLRQµ:KDWLVSDLQ"¶KDVSHUSOH[HGSKLORVRSKHUVSK\VLFLDQVDQGOD\SHUVRQV
VLQFHWKHHDUOLHVWUHFRUGHGKLVWRU\$WUHPHQGRXVDPRXQWRIHIIRUWKDVEHHQ
H[SHQGHGLQDQDWWHPSWWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHPHFKDQLVPVEHKLQGSDLQHVSHFLDOO\
FKURQLFSDLQ'HVSLWHDGYDQFHVLQPRGHUQPHGLFLQHRIWKHSRSXODWLRQLQ
ZHVWHUQLQGXVWULDOQDWLRQVZLOOVXIIHULQWKHLUOLYHVDWOHDVWRQFHIURPEDFNSDLQ
3ILQJVWHQ.DOX]D+LOGHEUDQGW,Q*HUPDQ\WKHQXPEHURQHUHDVRQIRU
SD\LQJZRUNHU¶VFRPSHQVDWLRQIRUPHQLVEDFNSDLQ)RUZRPHQEDFNSDLQLVWKH
QXPEHUWZRUHDVRQIRUSD\LQJZRUNHU¶VFRPSHQVDWLRQ$*HUPDQFRVWRILOOQHVV
VWXG\FDOFXODWHGWKDWEDFNSDLQFRVWVPRUHWKDQ%LOOLRQ(XURVDQQXDOO\DVFLWHGLQ
3ILQJWHQ.DOX]D+LOGHEUDQGW$SSUR[LPDWHO\RIEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVILQG
UHOLHIWKURXJKUHVWDQGUHOD[DWLRQDQDOJHVLFGUXJVDQGSK\VLFDOWKHUDS\6L[W\
SHUFHQWRIEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVDUHDEOHWRUHWXUQWRZRUNDIWHUDZHHNRQO\RI
SDWLHQWVZLWKDFXWHEDFNSDLQDUHLQFDSDFLWDWHGORQJHUWKDQVL[ZHHNV:DGGHOO
1HYHUWKHOHVVDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVH[SHULHQFHQHZ
HSLVRGHVRIEDFNSDLQWKDWODVWORQJHUDQGDUHPRUHSDLQIXOWKDQWKHILUVWHSLVRGHV
7KHKLJKUDWHRIUHFXUUHQWEDFNSDLQHSLVRGHVWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHUDS\UHVLVWDQWEDFN
SDLQSRVHWKHJUHDWHVWTXHVWLRQVLQUHVHDUFKDQGWUHDWPHQW
7KHJHQHUDOSXUSRVHRIWKLVVWXG\LVWRLGHQWLI\WKHPHFKDQLVPVLQYROYHGLQORZEDFN
SDLQDQGWRGHWHUPLQHKRZWKHVHPHFKDQLVPVDUHUHODWHGWRFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\
RIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFH7RDFFRPSOLVKWKLVWKHVWXG\UHSRUWHGKHUHDGGUHVVHVWKUHH
WRSLFVWKH%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO0RGHOWKHUROHRIFRPRUELGLWLHVDQGFDXVDO
DWWULEXWLRQVDERXWGLVHDVHRQVHW7KHILUVWVWHSLQWKLVSURFHVVLVWRWHVWZKHWKHU
ELRSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOIDFWRUVIRXQGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHSURYHWREHUHOHYDQWKHUH
)RUH[DPSOHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQGHSUHVVLRQMREGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQSV\FKRORJLFDO
³RYHUOD\´:DGGHOODQGORZEDFNSDLQZLOOEHH[DPLQHG-XVWDVULVNIDFWRUV
PD\EHUHOHYDQWSURWHFWLYHIDFWRUVPD\DOVRSOD\DUROHLQSUHYHQWLQJDFXWHEDFN
SDLQSDWLHQWVIURPEHFRPLQJFKURQLFEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV,QSDUWLFXODUWKHFRQVWUXFW
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHZLOOEHDQDO\]HG7KHQH[WVWHSLQYROYHVDQDQDO\VLVRIRWKHU
GLVHDVHVRUFRPRUELGLWLHV$UHVRPHLQGLYLGXDOVPRUHSURQHWRDFTXLULQJGLVHDVHV
WKDQRWKHUV",VWKHUHVRPHYDOLGLW\WRWKHSDLQSURQHSHUVRQDOLW\"$UHWKHUH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
12
GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQLQGLYLGXDOVZLWKDQGZLWKRXWFRPRUELGLWLHVUHJDUGLQJWKH
SV\FKRVRFLDOIDFWRUVOLVWHGDERYHHJ6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHGHSUHVVLRQMRE
VDWLVIDFWLRQHWF7KHWKLUGVWHSLVWRH[DPLQHWKHFDXVHVEHKLQGGLVHDVHDFTXLVLWLRQ
:KDWDUHWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDERXWORZEDFNSDLQRQVHW"'RWKHVHH[SODQDWLRQV
FRUUHODWHZLWKSRWHQWLDOO\IDWDOGLVHDVHVVXFKDVFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH"
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
13
7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVQH[WVHFWLRQLVWRJLYHWKHUHDGHUDQRYHUYLHZRIWKHKLVWRULFDO
GHYHORSPHQWVLQWKHILHOGRISDLQUHVHDUFK7KHRULHVWKDWZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGEHORZ
LQFOXGHWKHELRPHGLFDOPRGHOWKHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\0HO]DFN0HO]DFN
:DOORSHUDQWOHDUQLQJPHFKDQLVPVDQGFKURQLFSDLQ)RUG\FH7KHVH
WKHRULHVIRUPWKHEDVLVRIWKH%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO0RGHO&RPRUELGLWLHVDVDUHVHDUFK
IDFWRUZLOOEHH[DPLQHGDQGDUHYLHZRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHFRYHULQJSDLQDQGSHUVRQDOLW\
ZLOOEHSUHVHQWHG%HOLHIVDERXWGLVHDVHRQVHWFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQWKHRULHVDQGFRSLQJ
VWUDWHJLHVDUHWKHFRQWHQWRIWKLVVHFWLRQ*HQGHUGLIIHUHQFHVWKHUROHRIWKHIDPLO\
SUHYHQWLRQDQGWUHDWPHQWFRQFOXGHWKHUHYLHZRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHLQWKHILHOGRISDLQ
UHVHDUFK%XWEHIRUHEHJLQQLQJZLWKWKHWKHRUHWLFDOEDFNJURXQGSDLQZLOOEHGHILQHG
DQGLWVIXQFWLRQDQGLWVSURFHVVLQJGLVFXVVHGDQGHSLGHPLRORJLFDOGDWDSUHVHQWHG
'HILQLWLRQRISDLQ
$FFRUGLQJWRWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO$VVRFLDWLRQIRUWKH6WXG\RI3DLQSDLQLVGHILQHGDV
³DQXQSOHDVDQWVHQVRU\DQGHPRWLRQDOH[SHULHQFHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDFWXDORUSRWHQWLDO
WLVVXHGDPDJHRUGHVFULEHGLQWHUPVRIVXFKGDPDJH´0HUVNH\,Q
FRPSDULVRQWRHDUOLHUGHILQLWLRQVWKLVGHILQLWLRQRISDLQDGGUHVVHVWKHSV\FKRORJLFDO
FRPSRQHQWRIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHLQVWHDGRIIRFXVVLQJRQWKHSXUHO\VHQVRU\
SHUFHSWLRQ,QDGGLWLRQWKLVGHILQLWLRQVXJJHVWVWKDWDOWKRXJKWLVVXHGDPDJHFDQEH
DQLPSRUWDQWSDUWRIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHLWLVQRWQHFHVVDU\WRKDYHWLVVXHGDPDJH
WRIHHOSDLQ)XUWKHUWKLVGHILQLWLRQYLHZVHPRWLRQVDVDQLQWHJUDOFRPSRQHQWRIWKH
SDLQH[SHULHQFHDQGQRWMXVWDVDUHDFWLRQWRSDLQ
)XQFWLRQRISDLQ
3DLQW\SLFDOO\OHDGVSHRSOHWRFKDQJHWKHLUDFWLYLW\OHYHODQGDOWHUWKHLUPRYHPHQWV
6XFKSDLQEHKDYLRUVDUHDQLPSRUWDQWFRPSRQHQWRIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFH)RUSHRSOH
ZKRH[SHULHQFHFKURQLFSDLQWKHHPRWLRQDOUHDFWLRQVDUHPRUHOLNHO\WREHDQ[LHW\
DQGGHSUHVVLRQ7KHVHHPRWLRQDOUHDFWLRQVWRSDLQDUHDOVRDQLQWHJUDOSDUWRIWKH
SDLQH[SHULHQFH
3DLQQRWRQO\KXUWVDQGFDQGLVUXSWRXUGDLO\DFWLYLWLHVLWDOVRSURYLGHVORZOHYHO
IHHGEDFNDERXWWKHIXQFWLRQLQJRIRXUERGLO\V\VWHPVIHHGEDFNWKDWZHXVHRIWHQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
14
XQFRQVFLRXVO\DVDEDVLVIRUPDNLQJPLQRUDGMXVWPHQWVVXFKDVXQFURVVLQJRXUOHJV
RUUROOLQJRYHUZKLOHVOHHSLQJRUDYRLGLQJWKHFRXQWHUWRSFRUQHU
3DLQLVWKHV\PSWRPPRVWOLNHO\WROHDGDQLQGLYLGXDOWRVHHNPHGLFDOWUHDWPHQW
+RZHYHUWKHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQSDLQDQGWKHVHYHULW\RIWKHV\PSWRPFDQEH
ZHDN)RUH[DPSOHSDWLHQWVZLWKVLPLODUERGLO\V\PSWRPVPD\VHHWKHPVHOYHVDV
GLIIHUHQWO\LPSDLUHG7KHREMHFWLYHIXQFWLRQDOUHVWULFWLRQVFRXOGEHPLQLPDOZKLOHWKH
VXEMHFWLYHLPSDLUPHQWVDUHMXGJHGWREHKLJK)XUWKHUWKHREMHFWLYHDQGVXEMHFWLYH
LPSDLUPHQWVFRUUHODWHRQO\PRGHUDWHO\ZLWKSDLQLQWHQVLW\:DGGHOO1HZWRQ
+HQGHUVRQ6RPHUYLOOH0DLQ
3DLQKDVPHGLFDODQGSV\FKRORJLFDOVLJQLILFDQFH:KHQSDWLHQWVDUHDVNHGZKDWWKH\
IHDUPRVWDERXWLOOQHVVDQGLWVWUHDWPHQWPRVWUHSRUWHGEHLQJLQSDLQ7KHGUHDGRI
QRWEHLQJDEOHWRUHGXFHRQH¶VRZQVXIIHULQJDURXVHVPRUHDQ[LHW\WKDQWKHSURVSHFW
RIVXUJHU\WKHORVVRIDOLPERUHYHQGHDWK7D\ORU
3DLQ3URFHVVLQJ
3DLQLVIXQGDPHQWDOO\DSV\FKRORJLFDOH[SHULHQFH7KHGHJUHHWRZKLFKLWLVIHOWDQG
KRZLQFDSDFLWDWLQJLWLVGHSHQGVLQODUJHSDUWRQKRZLWLVLQWHUSUHWHG3DLQLVDOVR
KHDYLO\LQIOXHQFHGE\WKHFRQWH[WLQZKLFKLWLVH[SHULHQFHG)RUH[DPSOHPDQ\
DWKOHWHVZKRKDYHLQMXUHGWKHPVHOYHVRQWKHSOD\LQJILHOGVWD\HGLQWKHJDPH
DSSDUHQWO\REOLYLRXVWRWKHLULQMXU\7KLVPD\EHGXHWRWKHV\PSDWKHWLFDURXVDOWKDW
VHHPVWRGLPLQLVKSDLQVHQVLWLYLW\)LOOLQJKDP0DL[QHU=LOOPDQGH:LHG
.LQJ-DEORQVNL-HQ]RZVN\,QFRQWUDVWLQGLYLGXDOVZLWKQRIDPLO\DQGIHZ
VRFLDOFRQWDFWVPD\H[SHULHQFHWKHLUSDLQPRUHDFXWHO\,WDSSHDUVWKDWSDLQKDVD
FXOWXUDODVSHFWDVZHOO$OWKRXJKWKHUHDUHQRUDFLDORUHWKQLFGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHDELOLW\
WRGLVFULPLQDWHSDLQIXOVWLPXOLPHPEHUVRIVRPHFXOWXUHVUHSRUWSDLQVRRQHUDQG
H[SHULHQFHSDLQPRUHLQWHQVLYHO\WKDQPHPEHUVRIRWKHUFXOWXUHV=DW]LFN
'LPVGDOH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
15
$FXWH9HUVXV&KURQLF3DLQ
&OLQLFDOO\SDLQLVGLYLGHGLQWRWZRJURXSVDFXWHDQGFKURQLFSDLQ$FXWHSDLQW\SLFDOO\
UHVXOWVIURPVRPHVSHFLILFLQMXU\WKDWSURGXFHVWLVVXHGDPDJHVXFKDVDZRXQGRUD
EURNHQERQH$FXWHSDLQW\SLFDOO\GLVDSSHDUVZKHQWKHWLVVXHGDPDJHLVUHSDLUHG
$FXWHSDLQLVXVXDOO\VKRUWLQGXUDWLRQDQGZLWKWUHDWPHQWDQGWKHSDVVDJHRIWLPH
SDLQGHFUHDVHV)XUWKHUWKHORFDWLRQSDWWHUQDQGGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHSDLQVXJJHVW
WKHVRPDWLFFDXVHDQGWKXVKHOSWKHSUDFWLWLRQHULQGHWHUPLQLQJDSSURSULDWH
LQWHUYHQWLRQV*DWFKHO*DUGHD
&KURQLFSDLQW\SLFDOO\EHJLQVZLWKDQDFXWHHSLVRGHEXWXQOLNHDFXWHSDLQLWGRHVQRW
GHFUHDVHZLWKWUHDWPHQWDQGWKHSDVVDJHRIWLPH&KURQLFSDLQFDQIXUWKHUEH
GHILQHGLQWRWKUHHFDWHJRULHV&KURQLFEHQLJQSDLQW\SLFDOO\SHUVLVWVIRUVL[PRQWKVRI
ORQJHUDQGLVUHODWLYHO\LQWUDFWDEOHWRWUHDWPHQW7KHSDLQYDULHVLQVHYHULW\DQGPD\
LQYROYHDQ\RIDQXPEHURIPXVFOHJURXSV&KURQLFORZEDFNSDLQDQGP\RIDVFLDO
SDLQV\QGURPHDUHH[DPSOHV5HFXUUHQWDFXWHSDLQLQYROYHVDVHULHVRILQWHUPLWWDQW
HSLVRGHVRISDLQWKDWDUHDFXWHLQFKDUDFWHUEXWFKURQLFEHFDXVHWKHFRQGLWLRQFDQ
SHUVLVWRYHU\HDUV)RUH[DPSOHZLWKPLJUDLQHKHDGDFKHVWHPSHURPDQGLEXODU
GLVRUGHUDQGWULJHPLQDOQHXUDOJLD&KURQLFSURJUHVVLYHSDLQSHUVLVWVORQJHUWKDQVL[
PRQWKVDQGLQFUHDVHVLQVHYHULW\RYHUWLPH7\SLFDOO\LWLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
PDOLJQDQFLHVRUGHJHQHUDWLYHGLVRUGHUVVXFKDVVNHOHWDOPHWDVWDWLFGLVHDVHRU
UKHXPDWRLGDUWKULWLV&KURQLFSDLQLVQRWQHFHVVDULO\SUHVHQWDWDOOWLPHVEXWWKHIDFW
WKDWLWLVFKURQLFIRUFHVVXIIHUHUVWRRUJDQL]HWKHLUOLYHVDURXQGWKHLUSDLQ
7KHGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQDFXWHDQGFKURQLFSDLQLVLPSRUWDQWIRUVHYHUDOUHDVRQV
)LUVWDFXWHDQGFKURQLFSDLQSUHVHQWGLIIHUHQWSV\FKRORJLFDOSURILOHVWKDWLVFKURQLF
SDLQRIWHQFDUULHVDQRYHUOD\RISV\FKRORJLFDOGLVWUHVVWKDWFRPSOLFDWHVGLDJQRVLVDQG
WUHDWPHQW'HSUHVVLRQLVFRPPRQDPRQJFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVDQGPD\H[DFHUEDWH
SDLQDQGSDLQUHODWHGEHKDYLRUV.U|QHU+HGZLJHWDO6HFRQGPRVWRIWKH
SDLQFRQWUROWHFKQLTXHVDUHPRUHHIIHFWLYHFRQWUROOLQJDFXWHSDLQEXWDUHOHVV
VXFFHVVIXOZLWKFKURQLFSDLQPDQDJHPHQW7KLUGFKURQLFSDLQLQYROYHVWKHLQWHUDFWLRQ
RISK\VLRORJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDOVRFLDODQGEHKDYLRUDOFRPSRQHQWVZKLFKPDNHVLW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
16
PXFKPRUHFRPSOLFDWHG7KHLQWHUDFWLRQRIWKHVHFRPSRQHQWVHYROYHVRYHUWLPH
PDNLQJFKURQLFSDLQDV\QGURPH)ORUHWDO
&KURQLFSDLQPD\GHULYHIURPDSUHGLVSRVLWLRQWRUHVSRQGWRDQLQMXU\ZLWKDVSHFLILF
ERGLO\UHVSRQVHVXFKDVDOWHULQJRQH¶VSRVWXUH7KLVUHVSRQVHPD\WKHQEH
H[DFHUEDWHGE\VWUHVV7KHFKURQLFEDFNSDLQWKDWPD\UHVXOWFDQEHDJJUDYDWHGE\
LQDGHTXDWHFRSLQJIXUWKHUH[DFHUEDWLQJWKHSDLQV\QGURPHDQGOHDGLQJWRSDLQ
EHKDYLRUVWKDWRFFXULQWKHSURFHVVRIDWWHPSWLQJWRFRSHZLWKSDLQHJWDNLQJ
WLPHRIIIURPZRUNGLVFRQWLQXLQJDQH[HUFLVHSURJUDP%HFDXVHRIWKHLUSDLQFKURQLF
SDLQVXIIHUHUVEHFRPHPRUHVXVFHSWLEOHWRVWUHVVIXUWKHUFRPSURPLVLQJWKHLUDELOLW\
WRFRSH%\WKHWLPHDSDLQSDWLHQWLVDGHTXDWHO\WUHDWHGWKLVFRPSOH[G\QDPLF
LQWHUDFWLRQRISK\VLRORJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDOVRFLDODQGEHKDYLRUDOFRPSRQHQWVLVRIWHQ
WLJKWO\LQWHJUDWHGPDNLQJLWGLIILFXOWWRPRGLI\)ORUHWDO
&KURQLFSDLQFDQHQWLUHO\GLVUXSWDSHUVRQ¶VOLIHIRUFLQJWKHPWROHDYHWKHLUMREV
DEDQGRQWKHLUOHLVXUHDFWLYLWLHVDQGZLWKGUDZIURPWKHLUIDPLOLHVDQGIULHQGV2IWHQ
LQFRPHLVUHGXFHGDQGZRUNUHODWHGJRDOVDQGSHUVRQDODVSLUDWLRQVDUHVHWDVLGHDQG
ZLWKLWDORVVLQVHOIHVWHHP.DURO\5XHKOPDQ6RPHFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV
UHFHLYHFRPSHQVDWLRQEHFDXVHWKHLUSDLQUHVXOWHGIURPDQLQMXU\VXFKDVDQ
DXWRPRELOHDFFLGHQW&RPSHQVDWLRQFDQDFWXDOO\LQFUHDVHWKHLQWHQVLW\RIWKHSDLQ
WKHDPRXQWRIGLVDELOLW\H[SHULHQFHGWKHGHJUHHWRZKLFKSDLQLQWHUIHUHVZLWKOLIH
DFWLYLWLHVDQGWKHDPRXQWRIGLVWUHVVWKDWLVUHSRUWHG7XUN2NLIXML&KURQLF
SDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGQRWWRFRPPXQLFDWHZHOOZLWKWKHLUIDPLOLHVDQGVH[XDO
UHODWLRQVKLSVDOPRVWDOZD\VVXIIHU,URQLFDOO\ZKHQVSRXVHVUHPDLQVXSSRUWLYHVXFK
SRVLWLYHDWWHQWLRQPD\LQDGYHUWHQWO\PDLQWDLQRULQFUHDVHH[SUHVVLRQRISDLQDQGWKH
H[SHULHQFHRIGLVDELOLW\7XUN.HUQV5RVHQEHUJ
0DQ\FKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVDUHFOLQLFDOO\GHSUHVVHGDQGDODUJHQXPEHUKDYH
FRQWHPSODWHGRUDWWHPSWHGVXLFLGH)UHTXHQWO\FKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVFRQVXPHODUJH
TXDQWLWLHVRISDLQNLOOHUVDQGWKHVHGUXJVPD\EHRQO\SDUWLDOO\HIIHFWLYHDQGWKH\
XVXDOO\KDYHXQGHVLUDEOHVLGHHIIHFWVVXFKDVSUREOHPVZLWKFRQFHQWUDWLRQDQG
DGGLFWLRQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
17
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI/RZ%DFN3DLQ
)XUWKHUFODVVLILFDWLRQRISDLQFDQEHDSSOLHGWRORZEDFNRUOXPEDUVSLQHSDLQ7KHVH
W\SHVDUH7UDQVLHQWEDFNSDLQLVGHILQHGDVDQHSLVRGHLQZKLFKEDFNSDLQLVSUHVHQW
RQQRPRUHWKDQFRQVHFXWLYHGD\VDQGGRHVQRWUHFXURYHUDPRQWK
REVHUYDWLRQSHULRG,QUHFXUUHQWEDFNSDLQSDLQLVSUHVHQWRQOHVVWKDQKDOIWKHGD\V
LQDPRQWKSHULRGDQGRFFXUULQJLQPXOWLSOHHSLVRGHVRYHUWKH\HDU,QSDWLHQWV
ZLWKFKURQLFEDFNSDLQVHHDERYHSDLQLVSUHVHQWRQDWOHDVWKDOIWKHGD\VLQD
PRQWKSHULRGLQVLQJOHRUPXOWLSOHHSLVRGHV$FXWHEDFNSDLQLVSDLQWKDWLVQRW
UHFXUUHQWRUFKURQLFDVGHILQHGDERYHDQGZKRVHRQVHWLVUHFHQWDQGVXGGHQ7KH
ILUVWRQVHWLVDQHSLVRGHRIEDFNSDLQWKDWLVWKHILUVWRFFXUUHQFHRIEDFNSDLQLQD
SHUVRQ¶VOLIH$IODUHXSLVGHILQHGDVDSKDVHRISDLQVXSHULPSRVHGRQDUHFXUUHQWRU
FKURQLFFRXUVH$IODUHXSUHIHUVWRDSHULRGXVXDOO\DZHHNRUOHVVZKHQEDFNSDLQ
LVPDUNHGO\PRUHVHYHUHWKDQLVXVXDOIRUWKHSDWLHQW9RQ.RUII
/XPEDUVSLQHSDLQFDQEHIXUWKHUFODVVLILHGE\RQVHWDQGGXUDWLRQ$FXWHSDLQLPSOLHV
LPPHGLDWHRQVHWZLWKDGXUDWLRQRIWRPRQWKV6XEDFXWHSDLQPHDQVVORZRQVHW
ZLWKDGXUDWLRQRIWRPRQWKV7KHGXUDWLRQRIFKURQLFSDLQLVORQJHUWKDW
PRQWKVUHJDUGOHVVRIRQVHW5HFXUUHQWSDLQVKRZVLQWHUYDOVGXULQJZKLFKQR
V\PSWRPVDUHSUHVHQWEXWSDLQUHDSSHDUV2OPDUNHU.+DVXH0
&ODVVLILFDWLRQE\ORFDWLRQDQGGLVWULEXWLRQ/RFDOSDLQUHIHUVWRORZHUOXPEDURU
OXPERVDFUDOSDLQOXPEDJR5HIHUUHGSDLQLVSDLQH[SHULHQFHGDWWKHDUHDWKDW
VKDUHVDFRPPRQHPEU\RORJLFRULJLQZLWKWKHUHJLRQLQYROYHG,WLVXVXDOO\ORFDWHGWR
WKHLQJXLQDORUEXWWRFNUHJLRQRUWKHDQWHULRUODWHUDORUSRVWHULRUWKLJK,QVRPH
FDVHVKRZHYHULWPLJKWEHGLVWULEXWHGHYHQEHORZWKHNQHH5DGLFXODUSDLQLVSDLQ
WKDWLVGLVWULEXWHGDORQJWKHGHUPDWRPDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIDVSLQDOQHUYHURRWDQGLV
FDXVHGE\DGLUHFWDIIHFWLRQRIWKHQHUYHWLVVXH,WLVFRPPRQO\H[SHULHQFHGDORQJ
WKHFRXUVHRIWKHVFLDWLFQHUYHGHSHQGLQJRQWKHVSLQDOOHYHORIWKHLQYROYHGQHUYH
URRW6FLDWLFD,WOLWHUDOO\PHDQV³UHODWHGWRWKHKLS´,WLVGHILQHGDVDORFDODIIHFWLRQ
RIWKHVFLDWLFQHUYHLQWKHWKLJK2OPDUNHU.+DVXH0
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
18
%LRPHFKDQLFVRI/RZ%DFN3DLQ
,GHQWLILDEOHGLVHDVHSURFHVVHVVXFKDVDQN\ORVLQJVSRQG\OLWLVDQGUKHXPDWRLG
DUWKULWLVDFFRXQWIRURQO\DVPDOOPLQRULW\RIORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV7KHUHLVJURZLQJ
HYLGHQFHWKDWIRUWKHPDMRULW\WKHXQGHUO\LQJFDXVHRIEDFNSDLQLVPHFKDQLFDO
$GDPVSURSRVHVWKDWDOWKRXJKPDQ\LQIOXHQFHVPXVWEHLQYROYHGPHFKDQLFDO
ORDGLQJPD\EHRQHRIWKHSULPDU\IDFWRUVOHDGLQJWRORZEDFNSDLQ
:KHUHGRHVEDFNSDLQFRPHIURP"$OOVSLQDOWLVVXHVH[FHSWWKHFHQWUDOUHJLRQRIWKH
LQWHUYHUWHEUDOGLVFVKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWREHSDLQIXOGXHWRLQQHUYDWLRQRIWKHVH
WLVVXHVDQGVWUXFWXUHV3DLQSURYRFDWLRQVWXGLHVKRZHYHUVXJJHVWWKDWWKHPRVW
FRPPRQRULJLQRIVHYHUHDQGFKURQLFEDFNSDLQLVWKHSRVWHULRUDQQXOXVILEURVXVDQG
WKHDGKHULQJORQJLWXGLQDOOLJDPHQW$GDPV,QDVXEVWDQWLDOPLQRULW\RIORZ
EDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVWKHDSRSK\VHDOMRLQWVDQGVDFURLOLDFMRLQWVDUHDOVRSDLQIXO
0HFKDQLFDOIDLOXUH$GDPVK\SRWKHVL]HVWKDWSDLQFDQEHFDXVHGE\
PHFKDQLFDOIDLOXUH7KHPRVWFRPPRQPHFKDQLVPVDUHDVIROORZVOLJDPHQWVRIWKH
QHXUDODUFKDUHPRVWHDVLO\GDPDJHGE\IRUZDUGEHQGLQJPRYHPHQWVWKH
DSRSK\VHDOMRLQWVXUIDFHVE\WRUVLRQDQGEDFNZDUGEHQGLQJWKHYHUWHEUDOERG\E\
FRPSUHVVLRQDQGWKHGLVFE\DV\PPHWULFDOEHQGLQJDQGFRPSUHVVLRQRUIROORZLQJ
FRPSUHVVLYHGDPDJHWRWKHYHUWHEUDOERG\$GDPV,QHDFKRIWKH
PHFKDQLVPVGHVFULEHGDERYHGDPDJHFDQRFFXUGXULQJDVLQJOHORDGLQJF\FOH
VLPXODWLQJVRPHLQFLGHQWVXFKDVDIDOORUE\WKHSURFHVVRIDFFXPXODWLQJ³IDWLJXH
IDLOXUH´LQZKLFKWKHIRUFHVUHPDLQUHODWLYHO\ORZ3DLQPD\SRVVLEO\DULVHLQWKH
DEVHQFHRIVWUXFWXUDOIDLOXUHLIKLJKVWUHVVFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDUHJHQHUDWHGZLWKLQWKH
SRVWHULRUDQQXOXVRUDSRSK\VHDOMRLQWV7KLVFDQRFFXUDVDUHVXOWRIORUGRWLF
SRVWXUHVHVSHFLDOO\LIWKH\DUHKHOGIRUORQJSHULRGVDQGLWPD\SRVVLEO\RFFXUDVD
UHVXOWRIH[FHVVLYHRUXQEDODQFHGPXVFOHDFWLYLW\
(IIHFWVRIDJHDQGGHJHQHUDWLRQRQVSLQDOPHFKDQLFV$JHUHODWHGFKDQJHVLQGLVF
PHFKDQLFVDSSHDUWREHGXHWRFKDQJHLQELRFKHPLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQ:LWKLQFUHDVLQJ
DJHWKHGLVFV¶FROODJHQVDQGSURWHRJO\FDQVXQGHUJRTXDQWLWDWLYHDQGTXDOLWDWLYH
FKDQJHVZKLFKPD\EHUHODWHGWRQXWULWLRQDOFRPSURPLVHRUGXHWRGHJUDGDWLYH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
19
HQ]\PHV$GDPV7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWPHFKDQLFDOFRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHVH
FKDQJHVLVWKHUHGXFWLRQLQWKHZDWHUFRQWHQWRIWKHQXFOHXVSXOSRVXV
EHFDXVHLWUHGXFHVWKHDELOLW\RIWKHQXFOHXVWREHKDYHOLNHDSUHVVXUL]HGIOXLG
)XUWKHUDOOVSLQDOWLVVXHVEHFRPHZHDNHUDQGOHVVH[WHQVLEOHZLWKDJH2QH
PDQLIHVWDWLRQRIWKLVLVWKHUHGXFHGUDQJHRIPRYHPHQWGHPRQVWUDWHGE\
GHJHQHUDWHGVSLQHV
0XVFOHG\VIXQFWLRQ,WLVZLGHO\VXVSHFWHGWKDWEDFNSDLQFDQOHDGWRDEQRUPDO
PXVFOHIXQFWLRQZKLFKLQWXUQOHDGVWRWKHUHFXUUHQWRUFKURQLFSUREOHPVLQPXVFOH
DQGXQGHUO\LQJWLVVXHV)RUH[DPSOHSDLQPD\LQKLELWQRUPDOVSLQDOPRYHPHQWV
FDXVLQJPXVFOHDWURSK\DQGDUHGXFWLRQLQMRLQWPRELOLW\$QDWRPLFDOO\VSLQDO
PXVFOHVDUHUHTXLUHGWRSURWHFWWKHXQGHUO\LQJVSLQHIURPH[FHVVLYHEHQGLQJDQG
VLQFHWKLVSURWHFWLRQLVUHGXFHGE\SRRUPRELOLW\WKHHQGUHVXOWRIWKHSDLQPD\EH
DQLQFUHDVHGULVNRIEHQGLQJLQMXULHVWRWKHLQWHUYHUWHEUDOGLVFVDQGOLJDPHQWV
)XUWKHUXQLODWHUDOSDLQPD\FDXVHDQLPEDODQFHLQPXVFOHDFWLYLW\OHDGLQJWR
DV\PPHWU\LQVSLQDOSRVWXUHDQGPRYHPHQW$GDPVSURSRVHVWKDWVPDOO
FKDQJHVLQOXPEDUFXUYDWXUHFDQOHDGWRKLJKDQGSRWHQWLDOO\SDLQIXOVWUHVV
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHLQWHUYHUWHEUDOGLVFVDQGDSRSK\VHDOMRLQWV$GDPV
DGPLWVKRZHYHUWKDWWKHVHK\SRWKHVHVDUHGLIILFXOWWRSURYH
9DULDELOLW\5HVHDUFKKDVVKRZQWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVZKRGRDORWRIEHQGLQJDQGOLIWLQJ
GXHWRRFFXSDWLRQDOUHTXLUHPHQWVDUHPXFKPRUHOLNHO\WRGHYHORSEDFNSDLQWKDQ
WKRVHZKRGRQROLIWLQJ1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHPDMRULW\RILQGLYLGXDOVLQKLJKULVN
RFFXSDWLRQVUHPDLQXQDIIHFWHGVXJJHVWLQJWKDWULVNIDFWRUVH[LVWWKDWSUHGLVSRVH
FHUWDLQLQGLYLGXDOVWREDFNSUREOHPV5LVNIDFWRUVIURPDELRPHFKDQLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH
LQFOXGHDORQJEDFNKHDY\ERG\SRRUUDQJHRIPRYHPHQWHDVLO\IDWLJXHGPXVFOHV
DQGIDPLOLDOSUHGLVSRVLWLRQ
6RXUFHVRIORZEDFNSDLQFRPSODLQWV$VZLWKDOOKXPDQGLVHDVHWKHGLDJQRVLVDQG
WUHDWPHQWRIORZEDFNSUREOHPVEHJLQZLWKWKHKLVWRU\IROORZHGE\WKHFOLQLFDO
ZRUNXSVHOHFWHGLPDJLQJPRGDOLWLHVIRUFRQILUPDWLRQDQGDWUHDWPHQWSURWRFRO
4XHVWLRQLQJWKHSDWLHQWDOORZVFRQFHSWVWRIRUPUHJDUGLQJWKHLQYROYHGDQDWRP\)RU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
20
H[DPSOHORZEDFNSDLQDORQHLVPRUHFRPPRQLQDQQXODUWHDUVDQGLQIDFHW
GHJHQHUDWLYHDQGVXEOX[DWLRQV\QGURPHVZKHUHDVVFLDWLFDSRLQWVWRGLVFSURWUXVLRQ
RUVWHQRVLVZLWKLQWKHYHUWHEUDOFDQDO6HULRXVGLVFOHVLRQVDUHSUHFHGHGE\QXPHURXV
DQGZRUVHQLQJERXWVRIORZEDFNSDLQ/RZEDFNSDLQWKDWVXGGHQO\LVWUDQVIRUPHG
LQWRRQO\OHJSDLQSUREDEO\UHSUHVHQWVDFRQWDLQHGGLVFWKDWKDVEHFRPHD
QRQFRQWDLQHGGLVF&R[
)LYHFRPPRQVRXUFHVRIVFLDWLFDKDYHEHHQVXJJHVWHGE\0F&DUURQDQG/DURV
•
+HUQLDWHGGLVF
•
$QQXODUWHDUV
•
0\RJHQLFGLVHDVHPXVFOHUHODWHG
•
6SLQDOVWHQRVLV
•
)DFHWMRLQWDUWKURSDWK\
+HUQLDWHGGLVF7KHGLVFSHUIRUPVLWVUROHDVDVKRFNDEVRUEHUYHU\HIILFLHQWO\DVORQJ
DVLWLVZDWHUWLJKW'XHWRWKHDJLQJSURFHVVDQGRUH[FHVVLYH³ZHDUDQGWHDU´WKH
GLVFPD\SDUWLDOO\ORVHWKLVSURSHUW\LHFUDFNVGHYHORSLQWKHDQQXOXVILEURVXV
WKURXJKZKLFKWKHIOXLGRIWKHQXFOHXVFDQHVFDSH7KLVFRQGLWLRQLVWHUPHGD
KHUQLDWHGRUUXSWXUHGGLVF,WKDSSHQVPRVWFRPPRQO\DVDUHVXOWRIFKURQLFIOH[LRQ
PRYHPHQWVIRUZDUGEHQGLQJGXULQJZKLFKWKHQXFOHXVPRYHVWRZDUGWKHEDFNDQG
IOXLGFDQHVFDSHWKHUH7KHIOXLGPD\WKHQFRPSUHVVWKHQHUYHURRWVLHWKHVFLDWLF
QHUYHZKLFKH[LWVIURPWKHOXPEDUUHJLRQZKHUHSUHVVXUHVRQWKHYHUWHEUDOFROXPQ
DUHPRVWLQWHQVH7KLVVLWXDWLRQFRPELQHGZLWKFKURQLFRUVXGGHQH[WUHPHWHQVLRQ
RQWKHSRVWHULRUORQJLWXGLQDOOLJDPHQWVFDQUHVXOWLQFKURQLFEDFNSDLQ
$QQXODUWHDUV,QVRPHSDWLHQWVZLWKORZEDFNSDLQDQGXQLODWHUDORUELODWHUDO
UDGLDWLRQWRWKHORZHUH[WUHPLWLHVWKHSDLQDULVHVIURPZLWKLQWKHGLVF7KHSDLQ
VHQVLWLYHVWUXFWXUHVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHUDGLDWLQJSDLQWRWKHORZHUH[WUHPLW\DUH
ORFDWHGVRPHZKHUHLQVLGHWKHGLVFSUREDEO\LQWKHH[WHUQDOSDUWVRIWKHDQXOXV
ILEURVXVDQGLQWKHORQJLWXGLQDOOLJDPHQWV&R[
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
21
$SDWLHQW¶VSDLQIXOV\PSWRPVFDQEHUHSURGXFHGE\LQMHFWLQJDFRQWUDVWPHGLXPLQWR
WKHGLVFGHPRQVWUDWLQJDQDQXODUWHDUDQGWKHQWKHV\PSWRPVFDQEHUHOLHYHGE\
LQMHFWLQJDORFDODQHVWKHWLF7KLVDQHVWKHWLFGRHVQRWQHHGWRH[WHQGEH\RQGWKHGLVF
PDUJLQVWRUHOLHYHORZEDFNRUOHJSDLQWKXVVXSSRUWLQJWKHH[LVWHQFHRIGLVFRJHQLF
SDLQ&R[
7HDUVLQWKHSHULSKHU\DUHFDXVHGE\WUDXPDUDWKHUWKDQE\ELRFKHPLFDOGHJUDGDWLRQ
WKH\GHYHORSLQGHSHQGHQWO\RIQXFOHDUGHJHQHUDWLRQDQGDUHUHVSRQVLEOHIRU
GLVFRJHQLFORZEDFNSDLQ&R[
0\RJHQLFGLVHDVHPXVFOHUHODWHG0RVWFKURQLFPXVFOHVWUDLQVDUHDFWXDOO\WKH
UHVXOWRIGHJHQHUDWLYHRUKHUQLDWHGGLVFV7KHUHLVQRVXFKWKLQJDVFKURQLFPXVFOH
VWUDLQPRVWDUHDFWXDOO\GHJHQHUDWLYHRUKHUQLDWHGGLVFVFDXVLQJVHFRQGDU\PXVFOH
VSDVPV
6SLQDOVWHQRVLV6WHQRVLVLVDQDEQRUPDOQDUURZLQJRIWKHERG\RUOLJDPHQWRXV
VWUXFWXUHVRIWKHYHUWHEUDOFDQDO1RUPDOSHUVRQVKDYHVXIILFLHQWURRPLQWKHFDQDO
DQGODWHUDOUHFHVVHVIRUPROGLQJDQGJOLGLQJKHQFHPRYHPHQWSURGXFHVQRFOLQLFDO
V\PSWRPV+RZHYHULIWKHVL]HRIWKHFDQDOLVQDUURZHGE\ERQ\RUOLJDPHQWRXV
SUROLIHUDWLRQVV\PSWRPVDSSHDU
6SLQDOVWHQRVLVPD\EHWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWHOHPHQWLQGHWHUPLQLQJV\PSWRPVDQG
WKHLUVHYHULW\UHVSRQVHWRWUHDWPHQWDQGSURJQRVLV$SDWLHQWFDQKDYHDODUJHGLVF
SURWUXVLRQDQGDOVRDODUJHGLDPHWHUYHUWHEUDOFDQDODQGODWHUDOUHFHVVDQG
WKHUHIRUHKDYHQRV\PSWRPVZKHUHDVWKHVDPHGLVFSURWUXVLRQFDQFDXVHVHYHUH
PRWRUDQGVHQVRU\ILQGLQJVLQDSDWLHQWZLWKDVWHQRWLFFDQDO7KHUHIRUHGLVF
SURWUXVLRQVL]HLVQRWDVLPSRUWDQWDVWKHVL]HRIWKHFDQDOLWEXOJHVLQWR
)DFHWMRLQWDUWKURSDWK\$UWKURVLVLVWKHGHJHQHUDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRIWKHMRLQW
$UWKURVLVRIWKHIDFHWVLVUDUHLQSDWLHQWVXQGHUDJHDQGLWLVIRXQGSURJUHVVLYHO\
PRUHIUHTXHQWO\DQGLVPRUHVHYHUHDVSDWLHQWVDJH&R[
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
22
6RFLDO(SLGHPLRORJLFDO'DWD
/RZEDFNSDLQLVDFRQGLWLRQWKDWLVFXUUHQWO\WDNLQJDVLJQLILFDQWWROORQWKHKHDOWK
FDUHV\VWHPVRIPRVWLQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHVDVZHOODVRQWKHSHUVRQDOOLYHVRI
LQGLYLGXDOVZKRVXIIHUIURPLW,WKDVEHHQHVWLPDWHGWKDWLQSHRSOHZLOOFKDQJH
KLVRUKHUZRUNEHFDXVHRIORZEDFNSDLQRUZLOOUHWLUHHDUO\GXHWRGLVDELOLW\
VWHPPLQJIURPORZEDFNSDLQ7D\ORU%DFNSDLQKDVEHHQIRXQGWREHWKH
PRVWH[SHQVLYHEHQLJQFRQGLWLRQLQLQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHVZKLOHUHSUHVHQWLQJWKH
SULPDU\FDXVHRIGLVDELOLW\LQLQGLYLGXDOVXQGHUWKHDJHRI\HDUV*DURIDOR
3RODWLQLQWKH867D\ORUDQGLQ*HUPDQ\%DVOHU)XUWKHULW
LVHVWLPDWHGWKDWELOOLRQDUHVSHQWDQQXDOO\LQWKH86DORQHIRUWKHWUHDWPHQWRI
PXVFRVNHOHWDOSDLQRIZKLFKDSSUR[LPDWHO\RQHKDOILVFRQVXPHGE\VXUJLFDO
WUHDWPHQW*DURIDOR3RODWLQ
,QWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVRIWKHDGXOWSRSXODWLRQKDVEHHQIRXQGWRKDYHEDFNSDLQ
DWDQ\JLYHQWLPH7KHSUHYDOHQFHRIORZEDFNSDLQULVHVDIWHUDJHWRDSHDNLQ
WKHWR\HDUDJHUDQJHZLWKDIDOOLQJSUHYDOHQFHDIWHUDJH&RQVLGHUDWLRQRI
WKHVSHFLILFDJHRIRQVHWVKRZVWKDWRISHUVRQVDUHDIIOLFWHGDWOHVVWKDQ
\HDUVRIDJHDWWR\HDUVDWWR\HDUVDWWR\HDUV
DWWR\HDUVDQGDWPRUHWKDQ\HDUVRIDJH'H\R7VXL:X
7KHGHPRJUDSKLFSUHYDOHQFHVKRZVUHJLRQDOO\WKDWWKH1RUWKHDVWHUQ8QLWHG6WDWHV
KDVDKLJKHUUDWHRIORZEDFNSDLQWKDQWKH:HVWHUQVWDWHV7KHUHDUHQR
NQRZQGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQIRUH[DPSOH1RUWKHUQYHUVXV6RXWKHUQ*HUPDQ\,QWKH
86PHQDQGZRPHQDUHDIIOLFWHGVLPLODUO\ZLWKZKLWHPHQKDYLQJWKHKLJKHVW
SUHYDOHQFHDQGEODFNPHQWKHORZHVW/HVVHGXFDWHGSHUVRQVKDYHDLQFUHDVHG
LQFLGHQFHRYHUEHWWHUHGXFDWHGSHUVRQV'H\R7VXL:X
&URVV&XOWXUDO&RPSDULVRQV
&URVVFXOWXUDOFRPSDULVRQVLQSDLQWUHDWPHQWFHQWHUVLQVHYHUDOFRXQWULHVLQFOXGLQJ
WKH8QLWHG6WDWHV*HUPDQ\0H[LFR-DSDQ,WDO\DQG1HZ=HDODQGLQGLFDWHVLPLODU
OHYHOVRIVLFNOHDYHGXHWRORZEDFNSDLQKRZHYHULWVHHPVWKDW$PHULFDQSDWLHQWV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
23
UHSRUWHGWKHJUHDWHVWOHYHORILPSDLUPHQWLQDOODUHDVRIOLIHIXQFWLRQLQJ*DURIDOR
3RODWLQ2WKHUFURVVFXOWXUDOFRPSDULVRQVKDYHUHYHDOHGWKDWH[SHULHQFHVRI
EDFNSUREOHPVZHUHUHSRUWHGOHVVIUHTXHQWO\LQ+RQJ.RQJWKDQLQ%ULWDLQ/DXHWDO
$OWKRXJK+RQJ.RQJUHVSRQGHQWVWHQGHGWREHVKRUWHUZHLJKHGOHVVDQG
HQJDJHGLQKHDY\OLIWLQJOHVVRIWHQWKDQ%ULWLVKUHVSRQGHQWVWKHVHGLIIHUHQFHVGLGQRW
IXOO\DFFRXQWIRUWKHYDU\LQJLQFLGHQFHUDWHV,WKDVEHHQSRVWXODWHGWKDWFXOWXUDO
GLIIHUHQFHVPD\H[SODLQDKLJKHUWKUHVKROGIRUUHSRUWLQJSDLQV\PSWRPV
$VXUYH\LQD1RUGLFVDPSOHRIPRUHWKDQLQGLYLGXDOVIRXQGWKDWRI
WR\HDUROGPHQDQGZRPHQUHSRUWHGDOLIHWLPHSUHYDOHQFHRIORZEDFNSUREOHPV
DQGUHSRUWHGORZEDFNSDLQLQWKHODVW\HDU/HERHI<GH.ORXJDUW
/DXULW]HQ+RZHYHUVLFNOHDYHLQ6FDQGDQDYLDGXHWRORZEDFNSDLQKDVEHHQ
HVWLPDWHGDWFRPSDUHGWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVLQZKLFKVLFNOHDYHGXHWRORZ
EDFNSDLQKDVEHHQUHSRUWHGWREHDVKLJKDV0D\HU7KLVILQGLQJLV
LQWHUHVWLQJLQWKDWWKHFRVWVRIPHGLFDOUHVRXUFHVDQGGLVDELOLW\SD\PHQWVDUH
UHSRUWHGO\JUHDWHULQ1RUWKHUQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVLQZKLFKWKHVRFLDOL]HGHFRQRPLHV
GRQRWHPSKDVL]HWKHGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQFRPSHQVDWRU\DQGQRQFRPSHQVDWRU\SDLQ
WRWKHH[WHQWGRQHLQWKH860D\HU*DWFKHO
2FFXSDWLRQDO6HWWLQJV
'HVSLWHWKHRYHUDUFKLQJLQIOXHQFHRIORZEDFNSDLQERWKRQDVRFLDODQGLQGLYLGXDO
OHYHOWKHUHLVVWLOOQRLGHQWLILDEOHFDXVHIRULWVRQVHWRULWVUHRFFXUUHQFH1HYHUWKHOHVV
QHZWHFKQRORJ\KDVIXUWKHUHGWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIORZEDFNSDLQDQGWKH
LGHQWLILFDWLRQRISDLQVRXUFHVDVZHOODVQHXURSK\VLRORJLFDOPHFKDQLVPVRI
QRFLFHSWLRQIURPDELRPHGLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVVHFWLRQLVWRSURYLGH
DFRJHQWGLVFXVVLRQRIWKHIDFWRUVWKDWDUHEHOLHYHGWRFRQWULEXWHWRLWVKLJKLQFLGHQFH
LQ:HVWHUQLQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHVDQGLQSDUWLFXODURFFXSDWLRQDOVHWWLQJV$OWKRXJK
WKHUHLVJHQHUDODJUHHPHQWDPRQJUHVHDUFKHUVDQGFOLQLFLDQVWKDWH[SRVXUHWRD
FRPELQDWLRQRIRFFXSDWLRQDOULVNIDFWRUVPD\UHQGHUFHUWDLQLQGLYLGXDOVPRUH
VXVFHSWLEOHWRPXVFXORVNHOHWDOSDLQLWLVFOHDUWKDWWKHUHLVQRVLQJOHFDXVDO
UHODWLRQVKLS*DURIDOR3RODWLQ,QDGGLWLRQSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOIDFWRUV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
24
ZLOOEHH[DPLQHGZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHLUSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWRQWKHH[SUHVVLRQRIEDFN
SDLQ
$QXPEHURIUHVHDUFKHUVKDYHWDUJHWHGWKHZRUNHQYLURQPHQWWREHWWHUDVVHVVWKH
UDWHRIORZEDFNSDLQDFFRUGLQJWRYRFDWLRQDQGWRDGYDQFHWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKH
FRQWULEXWLQJPHFKDQLVPVRIORZEDFNSDLQDPRQJGLIIHUHQWRFFXSDWLRQDOVXEVHWV
%XUWRQ7LOORWVRQ6\PRQGV%XUNHDQG0DWKHZVRQVXUYH\HGORZEDFNSDLQLQ
DODUJHVDPSOHRI86SROLFHRIILFHUVWKHDLPRIWKHVWXG\ZDVWRLGHQWLI\SRWHQWLDO
ULVNIDFWRUVWKDWPD\FRQWULEXWHWRWKHKLJKUDWHRIILUVWRQVHWDQGUHFXUUHQWEDFN
SUREOHPV7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUIRUILUVWRQVHWORZEDFNSDLQLQWKLVVXEVHWZDV
ZHDULQJERG\DUPRUZHLJKLQJDSSUR[LPDWHO\NLOR+RZHYHUWKHFKURQLFLW\RIWKH
FRQGLWLRQDSSHDUHGWREHPRUHDWWULEXWDEOHWRSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVVXFKDVWKH
VWUHVVIXOQDWXUHRIEHLQJDSROLFHRIILFHUUDWKHUWKDQWRSK\VLFDOGHPDQGVRIWKHMRE
DORQH
7KHUHKDVEHHQJHQHUDODJUHHPHQWWKDWQXUVLQJLVDKLJKULVNSURIHVVLRQIRUORZEDFN
SDLQ$PRQJWKHIHPDOHQXUVHVVXUYH\HGRIWKHUHVSRQGHQWVUHSRUWHGD
OLIHWLPHSUHYDOHQFHRIORZEDFNSDLQUHSRUWHGORZEDFNSDLQLQWKHSUHFHGLQJ
PRQWKSHULRG6PHGOH\(JJHU&RRSHU&RJJRQ2FFXSDWLRQDOULVN
IDFWRUVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKORZEDFNSDLQLQQXUVHVLQFOXGHIUHTXHQF\RIOLIWLQJDQG
PDQXDOO\PRYLQJSDWLHQWV
$QXPEHURIVWXGLHVKDYHH[DPLQHGSUHYDOHQFHUDWHVRIORZEDFNSDLQLQYDULRXV
LQGXVWULDOVHWWLQJVLQZKLFKKHDY\ODERULVPHUHO\RQHFRPSRQHQWRIWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶V
GDLO\URXWLQH+LOGHEUDQGW%RQJHUV'XO9DQ'LMN.HPSHUIRXQGLQD
VDPSOHRIVWHHOZRUNHUVWKDWWKHPRVWFRPPRQV\PSWRPVZHUHORZEDFNQHFN
DQGVKRXOGHUSDLQ7KHPDMRULW\RIWKHZRUNHUVFRQWULEXWHGWKHLUEDFNSUREOHPVWR
KHDY\DQGIUHTXHQWOLIWLQJ+LOGHEUDQGW%RQJHUV'XO9DQ'LMN.HPSHU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
25
%,236<&+262&,$/02'(/2)3$,1
+LVWRULFDO'HYHORSPHQWV,Q3DLQ5HVHDUFK
7KH%LRPHGLFDO0RGHO
7KHKLVWRU\RISDLQUHVHDUFKLVUHODWLYHO\VKRUW,QWKHODVW\HDUVSDLQKDVEHFRPH
DQLQGHSHQGHQWUHVHDUFKSKHQRPHQRQ&RQWHPSRUDU\XQGHUVWDQGLQJRISDLQLQWKH
PHGLFDOILHOGVWLOOUHIOHFWVWKHVWURQJLQIOXHQFHRI'HVFDUWHVZKRSURSDJDWHGWKH
FRQFHSWWKDWWKHERG\DQGPLQGZHUHVHSDUDWHHQWLWLHV$FFRUGLQJWR'HVFDUWHVSDLQ
LVGHILQHGDVDVWUDLJKWWKURXJKVHQVRU\SURMHFWLRQV\VWHPWKDWPRYHGLQMXU\VLJQDOV
IURPGDPDJHGWLVVXHWRWKHEUDLQZKHUHWKHPLQGFRXOGUHFRJQL]HWKHP&KDSPDQ
1DNDPXUD)ORUHV7KLVSHUVSHFWLYHZHQWXQFKDOOHQJHGIRUDOPRVWWZR
FHQWXULHVDQGLWVWLOOH[HUWVFRQVLGHUDEOHVXEWOHLQIOXHQFH8QWLOWKHVUHVHDUFKHU
DQGSK\VLFLDQVEDVHGWKHLUPRGHORISDLQRQWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWWLVVXHWUDXPD
DFWLYDWHVVSHFLILFUHFHSWRUVDQGWKDWVLJQDOVRIWLVVXHWUDXPDIROORZVSHFLILFSDLQ
SDWKZD\VWKURXJKWKHVSLQDOFRUGWRDSDLQFHQWHULQWKHEUDLQ
7KHELRPHGLFDOPRGHOSHUVSHFWLYHYLHZVSDLQDVDVHQVRU\H[SHULHQFHWKDWVLJQDOV
WLVVXHGDPDJH7KHWUDQVPLVVLRQRIWLVVXHGDPDJHLQIRUPDWLRQIURPWKHSHULSKHU\WR
WKHFHUHEUDOFRUWH[FDXVHVWKHH[SHULHQFHRISDLQ6LPSO\VDLGSDLQLQYROYHVWKH
WUDQVGXFWLRQRIWLVVXHWUDXPDLQWRQHXUDOVLJQDOVWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQRIVXFKVLJQDOV
WRWKHGRUVDOKRUQRIWKHVSLQDOFRUGDQGIURPWKHUHWRWKHWKDODPXVWKHFHQWUDO
UHJLVWUDWLRQRIWKHVHQVRU\LQIRUPDWLRQLQVRPDWRVHQVRU\FRUWH[DQGWKH
PRGXODWLRQRIWKHVLJQDOVDORQJWKHZD\LVDQLPSRUWDQWIHDWXUHRISDLQDQGD
PHFKDQLVPIRUSDLQUHOLHI,QDGGLWLRQWKHELRPHGLFDOPRGHOUHFRJQL]HVSDLQVWDWHV
WKDWRULJLQDWHZLWKWUDXPDWRQHXURORJLFDOSDWKZD\VQHXURSDWKLFSDLQ$FKURQLF
SDLQVWDWHLVQHXURSDWKLFZKHQWKHEUDLQLQWHUSUHWVVLJQDOVRULJLQDWLQJIURPWKH
DEQRUPDOILULQJRIGDPDJHGQHUYHVDVDWUXHVHQVRU\H[SHULHQFH
%DVLF$VVXPSWLRQV7KHFODVVLFDOELRPHGLFDOSHUVSHFWLYHYLHZVSDLQDVDPHFKDQLVWLF
VHQVRU\H[SHULHQFHWKDWVLJQDOVWLVVXHGDPDJH,WWDNHVSODFHLQDSDVVLYHQHUYRXV
V\VWHPHLWKHUWKURXJKLPPHGLDWHWLVVXHWUDXPDRUQHXURSDWK\$OOHYLDWLQJWKHSDLQ
LQFOXGHVUHPRYLQJWKHFDXVHRIWLVVXHWUDXPDRUWLVVXHVHQVLWL]DWLRQLQWKHSHULSKHU\
EORFNLQJRULQWHUUXSWLQJSDWKZD\VFDUU\LQJQR[LRXVVLJQDOVDQGDFWLYDWLQJ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
26
HQGRJHQRXVPRGXODWLRQPHFKDQLVPVE\SKDUPDFRORJLFDORUQHXURVXUJLFDOPHDQV
7KLVPRGHODVVXPHVWKDWDQHXUDOPHVVDJHVLJQDOVSDLQIURPWKHPRPHQWWUDXPD
DFWLYDWHVWKHVHQVRU\HQGRUJDQDQGWKHDZDUHQHVVRISDLQGHSHQGVRQWKH
DFWLYDWLRQRIVSHFLILFUHJLRQVRIWKHEUDLQ$FFRUGLQJWRWKHELRPHGLFDOPRGHOSDLQLV
WKHVHQVRU\HQGSURGXFWRIDQHVVHQWLDOO\SDVVLYHLQIRUPDWLRQWUDQVPLVVLRQSURFHVV
WKDWRSHUDWHVDVDELRORJLFDOO\DGDSWLYHPHFKDQLVP
%DVLF0HFKDQLVPV7UDQVGXFWLRQ7KHWUDQVGXFWLRQRIWLVVXHWUDXPDLQWRQHXUDO
VLJQDOVGHSHQGVRQVHQVRU\HQGRUJDQVNQRZQDVQRFLFHSWRUV7KHIUHHQHUYH
HQGLQJVRIWKLQO\PHOLQDWHG$GHOWDILEHUVIXQFWLRQDVWKHUPDODQGRUPHFKDQLFDO
QRFLFHSWRUVFRQGXFWLQJLPSXOVHVIURPWRPHWHUVSHUVHFRQG,QDGGLWLRQ
FHUWDLQ&ILEHUVWKDWFRQGXFWVORZO\PHWHUSHUVHFRQGDFWDVSRO\PRGDO
QRFLFHSWRUVUHVSRQGLQJWRYDULRXVKLJKLQWHQVLW\PHFKDQLFDOFKHPLFDODQGWKHUPDO
VWLPXOL%RWKW\SHVRIILEHUVDUHIRXQGLQWKHVNLQDQGGHHSWLVVXH5HSHWLWLYH
VWLPXODWLRQRIWKHVHUHFHSWRUVSURGXFHVSDLQ&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV
1RFLFHSWRUVLQQHUYDWHVNLQPXVFOHIDVFLDMRLQWVWHQGRQVEORRGYHVVHOVDQG
YLVFHUDORUJDQV)URPDVHQVRU\SHUVSHFWLYHWKHVHWLVVXHVJURXSLQWRFXWDQHRXV
GHHSDQGYLVFHUDOW\SHV1RFLFHSWLRQDSSHDUVWRVHUYHVRPHZKDWGLIIHUHQWIXQFWLRQV
LQWKHWKUHHW\SHVRIWLVVXHVDQGWKHTXDOLW\RIWKHSDLQWKDWHQVXHVIURPWKHLU
DFWLYDWLRQYDULHVDFURVVW\SHV0RVWFXWDQHRXVSDLQLVZHOOORFDOL]HGVKDUSSULFNLQJ
SDLQVHQVDWLRQVRIVKRUWGXUDWLRQZKHUHDV&ILEHUVW\SLFDOO\JHQHUDWHEXUQLQJ
VHQVDWLRQV'HHSWLVVXHSDLQXVXDOO\VHHPVGLIIXVHDQGGXOORUDFKLQJLQTXDOLW\
DOWKRXJKGHHSWLVVXHVFDQSURGXFHVKDUSSDLQVXQGHUFHUWDLQFRQGLWLRQVHJPXVFOH
UXSWXUH9LVFHUDOSDLQLVYHU\GLIIXVHRIWHQUHIHUUHGWRWKHERG\VXUIDFHSHUVLVWV
DIWHUWKHRUJLQDOVWLPXOXVKDVFHDVHGDQGLVIUHTXHQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKDTXHDV\
TXDOLW\WKDWSDWLHQWVGHVFULEHDV³VLFNHQLQJ´6HYHUHYLVFHUDOSDLQW\SLFDOO\SURGXFHV
SURIXVHVZHDWLQJQDXVHDDQGYRPLWLQJ&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV
6XIILFLHQWVWLPXOLIRUQRFLFHSWLRQGLIIHUDFURVVWLVVXHW\SHV&XWDQHRXVUHFHSWRUV
GHWHFWLQMXULRXVVWLPXOLIURPWKHVXUURXQGLQJHQYLURQPHQWDQGVRWKH\UHVSRQGWR
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
27
VHYHUHPHFKDQLFDODQGWKHUPDOHYHQWVVXFKDVFXWWLQJEXUQLQJRUIUHH]LQJ
1RFLFHSWRUVLQGHHSWLVVXHVXFKDVPXVFOHGHWHFWRYHUXVHDQGVWUDLQGHHS
PHFKDQLFDOLQMXU\LQFOXGHWHDULQJFUDPSLQJDQGLVFKHPLD9LVFHUDOQRFLFHSWRUV
UHVSRQGWRSDWKRORJLFDOFKDQJH$KROORZYLVFRXVQHHGVWRLGHQWLI\DQGWUDQVGXFH
GLVWHQWLRQVWUHWFKDQGLVRPHWULFFRQWUDFWLRQ$VROLGRUJDQQHHGVWRVLJQDOGLVWHQWLRQ
RIWKHFDSVXOHWKDWFRQWDLQVLWDQGLQIODPPDWLRQ&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV
7KHSHULSKHUDORULJLQVRISDLQYDU\PDUNHGO\GHSHQGLQJRQZKHWKHUWKH
QRFLFHSWRUVLQYROYHGOLHLQVXSHUILFLDORUGHHSWLVVXHV
6HQVLWL]DWLRQRI1RFLFHSWRUV6HQVLWL]DWLRQRIQRFLFHSWRUVLVDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQ
FOLQLFDOSDLQVWDWHV$VQRFLFHSWRUVEHFRPHVHQVLWL]HGSDLQWKUHVKROGVGLPLQLVK
DOORG\QLDDQGSDLQIXOTXDOLWLHVRIVXEVHTXHQWQR[LRXVVWLPXOLLQFUHDVH
K\SHUDOJHVLD6XFKDOWHUDWLRQVPD\UHIOHFWFKDQJHVLQWKHWUDQVGXFWLRQSURFHVV
FHQWUDOFKDQJHVWKDWIDFLOLWDWHWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQRIQR[LRXVPHVVDJHVRUERWK
6HQVLWL]DWLRQRIQRFLFHSWRUVFDQUHVXOWIURPHLWKHULQIODPPDWLRQRUUHSHWLWLYH
VWLPXODWLRQRIQRFLFHSWRUV(QKDQFHGVHQVLWLYLW\LVXVXDOO\DGDSWLYHEHFDXVHLWDOORZV
IRUUHFXSHUDWLRQDQGUHSDLU&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV$NH\IHDWXUHRI
VHQVLWL]DWLRQLVWKDWLWFDQDZDNHQQRFLFHSWRUVWKDWDUHRWKHUZLVH³VOHHSLQJ´
QRFLFHSWRUV)ORU%LUEDXPHU7XUN
%DVLF0HFKDQLVPV7UDQVPLVVLRQ7KHFHQWUDOWUDQVPLVVLRQRIQR[LRXVVLJQDOVWDNHV
SODFHLQWKHVSLQDOFRUG1RFLFHSWLYHDIIHUHQWVHQWHUWKHVSLQDOFRUGSULPDULO\WKURXJK
WKHGRUVDOURXWHWHUPLQDWLQJSULQFLSDOO\LQODPLQD,WKHPDUJLQDO]RQHEXWDOVRLQ
ODPLQDH,,WKHVXEVWDQWLDJHODWLQRVHDQG9RIWKHGRUVDOKRUQ&R[7KH
VSLQDODQGPHGXOODU\GRUVDOKRUQVDUHPXFKPRUHWKDQVLPSOHUHOD\VWDWLRQVWKHVH
FRPSOH[VWUXFWXUHVSDUWLFLSDWHGLUHFWO\LQVHQVRU\SURFHVVLQJSHUIRUPLQJORFDO
DEVWUDFWLRQLQWHJUDWLRQVHOHFWLRQDQGDSSURSULDWHGLVSHUVLRQRIVHQVRU\LPSXOVHV
&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV8SRQHQWU\QRFLFHSWLYHDIIHUHQWVV\QDSVH
ZLWKSURMHFWLRQQHXURQVWKDWFRQYH\LQIRUPDWLRQWRKLJKHUFHQWHUVIDFLOLWRU\
LQWHUQHXURQVWKDWUHOD\LQSXWWRSURMHFWLRQQHXURQVDQGLQKLELWRU\LQWHUQHXURQVWKDW
PRGXODWHWKHIORZRIQRFLFHSWLYHVLJQDOVWRKLJKHUFHQWHUV&R[6LPLODUQHXUDO
SURFHVVLQJRFFXUVLQWKHVSLQDOFRUGDQGWKHPHGXOODU\GRUVDOKRUQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
28
7KHVSLQDOFRUGFRQWDLQVDFRPSOH[QHWZRUNRILQWHUQHXURQV7KHVHQHWZRUNVQRW
RQO\UHOD\VLJQDOVWRKLJKHUOHYHOVRIWKHFHQWUDOQHUYRXVV\VWHPEXWDOVRPRGXODWH
VLJQDOWUDQVPLVVLRQDQGLQLWLDWHPRWRUUHIOH[HV3HULSKHUDOWUDXPDFDQVHQVLWL]HGRUVDO
KRUQQRFLFHSWLYHQHXURQVPDNLQJWKHPVHQVLWLYHWRQRUPDOLQSXWV7KHH[DJJHUDWHG
UHVSRQVHRIWUDQVPLVVLRQFHOOVLQWKHVSLQDOFRUGLVFHQWUDOVHQVLWL]DWLRQ3HUVLVWHQW
FHQWUDOVHQVLWL]DWLRQFRXOGFDXVHFKURQLFSDLQ&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV
7KHUHDUHWZRSULQFLSDOW\SHVRISURMHFWLRQQHXURQVLQWKHVSLQDOFRUGQRFLFHSWLYH
VSHFLILFDQGPXOWLUHFHSWLYHQHXURQV7KHIRUPHUFRQYH\RQO\WLVVXHWUDXPDVLJQDOV
WKHODWWHUUHVSRQGWRVWLPXOLRILQFUHDVLQJLQWHQVLW\$VFHQGLQJWUDFWVLQFOXGH
VSLQRWKDODPLFVSLQRUHWLFXODUVSLQRPHVHQFHSKDOLFVSLQRFHUYLFDODQGSRVWV\QDSWLF
GRUVDOFRUGWUDFWV)ORU%LUEDXPHU7XUN,QELRPHGLFDOWKLQNLQJWKH
VSLQRWKDODPLFWUDFWLVFOHDUO\WKHPRVWLPSRUWDQW/HVLRQVRIWKHDQWHURODWHUDO
TXDGUDQWRIWKHVSLQDOFRUGUHVXOWLQDORVVRISDLQVHQVDWLRQEHORZWKHVHJPHQWDO
OHYHORIWKHOHVLRQRQWKHFRQWUDODWHUDOVLGHRIWKHERG\&R[
&HQWUDO5HJLVWUDWLRQ7KHWKDODPXVLVDJDWHZD\DQGUHOD\FHQWHUIRUDIIHUHQWLQSXW
FRPLQJWRWKHEUDLQWKHUHIRUHLWLVWKHNH\VWUXFWXUHLQFHQWUDOUHJLVWUDWLRQ
&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV,WFRQVLVWVRIVHYHUDOIXQFWLRQDOO\GLVWLQFW
QXFOHLWKDWDUHUHFLSURFDOO\FRQQHFWHGWRPDQ\SDUWVRIWKHOLPELFV\VWHPDQGWKH
FRUWH[:LOOLV:HVWOXQG0HGLDODQGYHQWUREDVDOWKDODPLFQXFOHLUHOD\
QR[LRXVVLJQDOVWRWKHSULPDU\DQGVHFRQGDU\VRPDWRVHQVRU\FRUWLFHVZKHUHUHILQHG
ORFDOL]DWLRQDQGGLVFULPLQDWLRQRFFXU)URPDELRPHGLFDOSHUVSHFWLYHWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQ
RISDLQRFFXUVLQWKHVHFRUWLFDODUHDV
5HFHQWZRUNDFNQRZOHGJHVWKHH[LVWHQFHRIVSLQRUHWLFXODUVSLQRPHVHQFHSKDOLFDQG
VSLQROLPELFSDWKZD\VDVQRFLFHSWLYHSDWKZD\V:LOOLV:HVWOXQGEXWWRGDWH
QHXURSK\VLRORJLVWVGRQRWOLQNWKHPWRDSSUHFLDWLRQRISDLQVHQVDWLRQ&KDSPDQDQG
6WLOOPDQVXJJHVWWKDWVSLQROLPELFDQGVSLQRUHWLFXODUSDWKZD\VSOD\DPDMRU
UROHLQWKHHPRWLRQDOFRPSRQHQWRISDLQDQGWKDWWKLVGHWHUPLQHVWKHDYHUVLYHTXDOLW\
RIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
29
%DVLF0HFKDQLVPV0RGXODWLRQ0RGXODWLRQUHIHUVWRWKHQHXUDODFWLYLW\WKDWOHDGVWR
FRQWURORIWKHQRFLFHSWLYHWUDQVPLVVLRQSDWKZD\,QSXWIURPWKHIURQWDOFRUWH[DQG
K\SRWKDODPXVDFWLYDWHFHOOVLQWKHPLGEUDLQZKLFKFRQWUROVSLQDOQRFLFHSWLYH
WUDQVPLVVLRQFHOOVE\PHDQVRIFHOOVLQWKHPHGXOOD7KHDFWLYLW\RIWKLVPRGXODWRU\
V\VWHPLVRQHUHDVRQZK\SHRSOHZLWKDSSDUHQWO\VHYHUHLQMXU\PD\GHQ\VLJQLILFDQW
OHYHOVRISDLQ7XUN)ORU
7RGDWHUHVHDUFKHUVDUHIDUIURPXQGHUVWDQGLQJDOOWKHFRPSOH[LWLHVRIWKHKXPDQ
PLQGDQGFRQVFLRXVQHVV,WLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHUHDUHVSHFLILFSDWKZD\VLQWKH&16
WKDWFRQWUROSDLQWUDQVPLVVLRQDQGWKHUHLVHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHVHSDWKZD\VFDQEH
DFWLYDWHGE\SV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUV7KHLPSRUWDQFHRISV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVLQWKH
SDLQH[SHULHQFHZLOOEHGHVFULEHGEHORZLQ0HO]DFNDQG:DOO¶VJDWHFRQWURO
WKHRU\7KHPLGEUDLQSHULDTXHGXFWDOJUD\PDWWHUDQGDGMDFHQWUHWLFXODUIRUPDWLRQ
WKDWSURMHFWLQWRWKHVSLQDOFRUGYLDWKHURVWURYHQWUDOPHGXOODDUHLQYROYHGLQWKH
PRGXODWLRQRIQRFLFHSWLYHVLJQDOV)LHOGV7KLVSDWKZD\LQKLELWVVSLQDOQHXURQV
WKDWUHVSRQGWRQR[LRXVVWLPXOL
,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHELRJHQLFDPLQHFRQWDLQLQJQHXURQVHQGRJHQRXVRSLRGVSHSWLGHV
DUHSUHVHQWLQDOOUHJLRQVLQYROYHGLQSDLQPRGXODWLRQ7XUN)ORU7KH
RSLRGVPHGLDWHGDQDOJHVLDV\VWHPFDQEHDFWLYDWHGE\HOHFWULFDOVWLPXODWLRQRUE\
RSLDWHGUXJVVXFKDVPRUSKLQH,WFDQDOVREHDFWLYDWHGE\QRFLFHSWLRQVWUHVVDQG
VXJJHVWLRQ2SLRGVSURGXFHDQDOJHVLDE\GLUHFWDFWLRQRQWKH&16DQGDFWLYDWHWKH
QRFLFHSWLYHPRGXODWLQJV\VWHP2SLRGUHFHSWRUVKDYHWZRGLVWLQFWIXQFWLRQV
FKHPLFDOUHFRJQLWLRQDQGELRORJLFDODFWLRQ5HVHDUFKHUVK\SRWKHVL]HWKDWWKHEUDLQ
FDQV\QWKHVL]HPROHFXOHVWKDWZRXOGDFWDWWKHVHKLJKO\VSHFLILFUHFHSWRUVLWHV$
QXPEHURIHQGRJHQRXVRSLRGSHSWLGHVWKDWDUHVLPLODUWRPRUSKLQHKDYHEHHQ
LGHQWLILHGDWWKHUHFHSWRUOHYHO7XUN)ORU
7KHDFWLRQRIWKHHQGRJHQRXVRSLRGVLVDOVRPRGLILDEOHE\OHDUQLQJSURFHVVHV
&XUUHQWUHVHDUFKIRFXVHVRQWKHFODVVLFDOUHVSRQGHQWFRQGLWLRQLQJLQKXPDQVRI
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
30
VWUHVVLQGXFHGDQDOJHVLDWRLPSURYHWKHHIILFDF\RIWUHDWPHQWIRUDFXWHDQGFKURQLF
SDLQSDWLHQWV7XUN)ORU
%DVLF0HFKDQLVPV3HUFHSWLRQ7KHILQDOSK\VLRORJLFDOSURFHVVLQYROYHGZLWKSDLQLV
SHUFHSWLRQ7RGD\LWVWLOOUHPDLQVXQUHVROYHGKRZWKHQHXUDODFWLYLW\RIWKH
QRFLFHSWLYHWUDQVPLVVLRQQHXURQVSURGXFHVDVXEMHFWLYHH[SHULHQFH+RZWKLVFRPHV
DERXWLVREVFXUHDQGLWLVQRWHYHQFOHDULQZKLFKEUDLQVWUXFWXUHVWKHDFWLYLW\RFFXUV
WKDWSURGXFHVWKHSHUFHSWXDOHYHQW7KHUHDUHLQKHUHQWOLPLWDWLRQVWRXQGHUVWDQGLQJ
SDLQEHFDXVHLWLVDVXEMHFWLYHH[SHULHQFH,WIROORZVWKHQWKDWSDLQFDQQRWEH
SUHGLFWHG,QVRPHLQGLYLGXDOVLQQRFXRXVVWLPXOLSURGXFHH[FUXFLDWLQJSDLQ,QRWKHU
VLWXDWLRQVSDWLHQWVZLWKVHYHUHLQMXULHVGHQ\DQ\VLJQLILFDQWSDLQ
7RXQGHUVWDQGWKLVYDULDELOLW\LWLVKHOSIXOWRGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQSDLQGHWHFWLRQ
WKUHVKROGDQGSDLQWROHUDQFH3DLQWKUHVKROGLVDSURSHUW\RIWKHVHQVRU\V\VWHPDQG
LVGHSHQGHQWRQWKHVWLPXOXV,WLVKLJKO\UHSURGXFLEOHDFURVVLQGLYLGXDOVDQGLQWKH
VDPHLQGLYLGXDODWGLIIHUHQWWLPHV,QFRQWUDVWSDLQWROHUDQFHLVQRWSDUWLFXODUO\
UHSURGXFLEOHQRWZRLQGLYLGXDOVUHDFWWRQRFLFHSWLRQDQGSDLQLQTXLWHWKHVDPHZD\
7KLVGLVWLQFWLRQKHOSVFODULI\WKHYDULDELOLW\RISDLQ3DLQWROHUDQFHLVDPDQLIHVWDWLRQ
RIDSHUVRQ¶VUHDFWLRQWRQR[LRXVVWLPXOLDQGLVKLJKO\GHSHQGHQWRQSV\FKRORJLFDO
YDULDEOHVVXFKDVEHKDYLRUDODIIHFWLYHDQGFRJQLWLYHIDFWRUV7XUN)ORU
GLVFXVVHGEHORZ1RWRQO\GRHVLWYDU\EHWZHHQGLIIHUHQWLQGLYLGXDOVLQWKHVDPH
VLWXDWLRQEXWDOVRWKHVDPHLQGLYLGXDOPD\UHDFWGLIIHUHQWO\LQGLIIHUHQWVLWXDWLRQV
6HYHUDOIDFWRUVPD\DFFRXQWIRUWKLVYDULDELOLW\7KHUHPD\EHLQMXU\WRWKH
QRFLFHSWLYHWUDQVPLVVLRQV\VWHPRUWRWKHDFWLYLW\RIWKHPRGXODWRU\V\VWHPWKDW
ORZHUVSDLQLQWHQVLW\7KHUHPD\EHDEQRUPDOQHXUDODFWLYLW\SURGXFLQJ
K\SHUVHQVLWLYLW\WKDWFDQUHVXOWIURPVHOIVXVWDLQLQJSURFHVVHVVHWLQPRWLRQE\LQMXU\
WKDWPD\SHUVLVWEH\RQGWKHWLPHLWWDNHVIRUWKHRULJLQDOLQMXU\WRKHDO7KLVVHOI
VXVWDLQLQJSURFHVVPD\HYHQFUHDWHDVLWXDWLRQLQZKLFKSDLQLVH[SHULHQFHGZLWKRXW
QR[LRXVVWLPXOXVSURGXFHGE\DQDFWLYHWLVVXHGDPDJLQJSURFHVVHJQHXURSDWKLF
SDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
31
,ISDLQZHUHVLPSO\DVHQVDWLRQWKHVHQHXUDOSDLQPHFKDQLVPVZRXOGSUREDEO\EH
VXIILFLHQWWRH[SODLQPRVWRIWKHFOLQLFDOO\REVHUYDEOHYDULDELOLW\+RZHYHUSDLQLV
PRUHWKDQDVHQVDWLRQ7KHFORVHDVVRFLDWLRQRIWKHQRFLFHSWLYHVHQVRU\V\VWHPZLWK
WKHIXQFWLRQRISURWHFWLRQRIWKHERG\IURPGDPDJHLVXQLTXHDPRQJVHQVRU\
V\VWHPV,WLVHVVHQWLDOIRUXQGHUVWDQGLQJSDLQSDWLHQWVWKDWWKHGHVLUHWRHVFDSH
IURPRUWHUPLQDWHWKHVHQVDWLRQEHFRQVLGHUHG,ILWLVQRWXQSOHDVDQWLWLVQRWSDLQ
6XPPDU\DQGFULWLTXHRIWKHELRPHGLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH7KHELRPHGLFDOPRGHORISDLQ
DUJXHVWKDWQRFLFHSWLRQWUDQVPLVVLRQRIQR[LRXVVLJQDOLQJPRGXODWLRQDQGVHQVRU\
UHJLVWUDWLRQRISDLQDUHELRORJLFDOO\SUHGHWHUPLQHGSURFHVVHV7KLVPRGHOKDVEHHQ
FULWLFL]HGEHFDXVHSDLQLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHSUHGRPLQDQWO\DSURGXFWRIULJLG
XQLGLUHFWLRQDOVWUDLJKWWKURXJKDOOEHLWPRGXODWHGLQIRUPDWLRQWUDQVPLVVLRQ,WLVQRW
DWDOOFOHDUZKRRUZKDWLQWHUSUHWVWKHVLJQDOVWKDWFRPSOHWHWKHLUMRXUQH\IURP
SHULSKHU\WRFRUWH[&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV)XUWKHUWKLVPRGHOFDQQRW
H[SODLQKRZDVHQVRU\H[SHULHQFHFDQFRQWULEXWHVRSRZHUIXOO\WRVXIIHULQJZK\SDLQ
KXUWVLVVWLOOXQFOHDU
*DWH&RQWURO7KHRU\
,QWKHVDVHULHVRILPSRUWDQWGHYHORSPHQWVFKDQJHGRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI
SDLQ7KHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\0HO]DFN:DOOSURSRVHGWKDWSDLQZDV
GLIIHUHQWIURPRWKHUVHQVDWLRQVLQWKDWSDLQFDQEHPRGLILHG3DLQZDVFRQVLGHUHGWR
EHDPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOSKHQRPHQRQWKDWFRXOGEHLQIOXHQFHGE\DIIHUHQWDQG
HIIHUHQWPHFKDQLVPV7KHGLVFRYHU\RIRSLDWHUHFHSWRUVE\3HUWDQG6Q\GHU
SURYHGWREHHVVHQWLDOLQIXQGDPHQWDOUHVHDUFK7KLVGLVFRYHU\OHGWRWKH
GHWHUPLQDWLRQRIDQXPEHURIHQGRJHQRXVRSLDWHV±DQDOJHVLFVSURGXFHGE\WKH
ERG\±DQGWRDQLQFUHDVHLQUHVHDUFKDGGUHVVLQJQRFLFHSWLRQDQGDQDOJHVLFV2WKHU
DGYDQFHVZHUHUHJLVWHUHGLQWKHDUHDVRISDLQPHDVXUHPHQWSULPDULO\TXHVWLRQQDLUHV
IRUVXEMHFWLYHSDLQH[SHULHQFHDQGLQWKHILHOGSV\FKRSK\VLRORJ\LQZKLFKPHWKRGV
ZHUHGHYHORSHGWRPHDVXUHSV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDOSKHQRPHQRQHJHYRNHG
UHVSRQVHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
32
7KHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\RISDLQ0HO]DFN:DOOH[SODLQVWKHVSHFLILFLW\RI
SDLQGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRISDLQDQGZKLFKUROHSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVSOD\LQSDLQ
SURFHVVLQJ7KHFHQWUDODVVXPSWLRQRIWKHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\LVWKDWGLIIHUHQWSDUWV
RIWKHFHQWUDOQHUYRXVV\VWHPDUHLQYROYHGLQWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFH7KH\GLIIHUHQWLDWH
EHWZHHQWKUHHV\VWHPVUHODWHGWRWKHSURFHVVLQJRIQRFLFHSWLYHVWLPXODWLRQ±
VHQVRU\GLVFULPLQDWLYHPRWLYDWLRQDODIIHFWLYHDQGFRJQLWLYHHYDOXDWLYH±WKDWDUHDOO
WKRXJKWWRFRQWULEXWHWRWKHVXEMHFWLYHH[SHULHQFHRISDLQ7KHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\
SURSRVHVWKDWDPHFKDQLVPLQWKHGRUVDOKRUQVXEVWDQWLDJHODWLQRVHRIWKHVSLQDO
FRUGDFWVDVDVSLQDOJDWLQJPHFKDQLVPWKDWLQKLELWVRUIDFLOLWDWHVWUDQVPLVVLRQRI
QHUYHLPSXOVHVIURPWKHERG\WRWKHEUDLQRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHGLDPHWHUVRIWKHDFWLYH
SHULSKHUDOILEHUVDVZHOODVRIWKHG\QDPLFDFWLRQRIEUDLQSURFHVVHV7XUN)ORU
,WZDVSRVWXODWHGWKDWWKHVSLQDOJDWLQJPHFKDQLVPZDVLQIOXHQFHGE\WKH
UHODWLYHDPRXQWRIH[FLWDWRU\DFWLYLW\LQDIIHUHQWODUJHGLDPHWHUP\HOLQDWHGDQG
VPDOOGLDPHWHUILEHUVXQP\HOLQDWHGQRFLFHSWRUFRQYHUJLQJLQWKHGRUVDOKRUQV
)XUWKHULWZDVK\SRWKHVL]HGWKDWDFWLYLW\LQ$EHWDODUJHGLDPHWHUILEHUVWHQGVWR
LQKLELWWUDQVPLVVLRQRIQRFLFHSWLYHVLJQDOVFORVHVWKHJDWHZKLOH$GHOWDDQG&
VPDOOGLDPHWHUILEHUVSULPDU\DIIHUHQWDFWLYLW\WHQGVWRIDFLOLWDWHWUDQVPLVVLRQ
RSHQVWKHJDWH7KHK\SRWKHWLFDOJDWHLVSURSRVHGWREHORFDWHGLQWKHGRUVDOKRUQ
DQGLWLVDWWKLVSRLQWWKDWVHQVRU\LQSXWLVPRGXODWHGE\WKHEDODQFHRIDFWLYLW\
EHWZHHQODUJHGLDPHWHU$EHWDDQGRIVPDOOGLDPHWHU$GHOWDDQG&ILEHUV
0HO]DFNDQG:DOOSRVWXODWHWKDWWKLVVSLQDOJDWLQJPHFKDQLVPLVLQIOXHQFHG
QRWRQO\E\SHULSKHUDODIIHUHQWDFWLYLW\EXWDOVRE\HIIHUHQWQHXUDOLPSXOVHVWKDW
GHVFHQGIURPWKHEUDLQ$FFRUGLQJWRWKHLUPRGHODVSHFLDOL]HGV\VWHPRIODUJH
GLDPHWHUUDSLGO\FRQGXFWLQJILEHUVFDOOHGWKHFHQWUDOFRQWUROWULJJHUDFWLYDWH
VHOHFWLYHFRJQLWLYHSURFHVVHVWKDWWKHQLQIOXHQFHE\ZD\RIGHVFHQGLQJILEHUVWKH
PRGXODWLQJSURSHUWLHVRIWKHVSLQDOJDWLQJPHFKDQLVP0HO]DFNDQG:DOOK\SRWKHVL]H
WKDWWKHEUDLQVWHPUHWLFXODUIRUPDWLRQIXQFWLRQVDVDFHQWUDOELDVLQJPHFKDQLVP
LQKLELWLQJWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQRISDLQVLJQDOVDWPXOWLSOHV\QDSWLFOHYHOVRIWKH
VRPDWRVHQVRU\V\VWHP6LPSO\VDLGWKLVWKHRU\DVVXPHVWKDWWKHVHQVDWLRQVDUHQRW
GLUHFWO\WUDQVPLWWHGIURPWKHSHULSKHUDOQHUYHHQGLQJVWRWKHEUDLQLQVWHDGWKHVH
VHQVDWLRQVDUHPRGLILHGXSWKURXJKWKHVSLQDOFRUGDQGWKDWWKHVHVHQVDWLRQVDUH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
33
LQIOXHQFHGE\GRZQZDUGSDWKZD\VIURPWKHEUDLQ7KHH[SHULHQFHRISDLQLVWKHQ
LQWHUSUHWHG
,QWKHDEVHQFHRISDLQWKHSHULSKHUDOQHUYHHQGLQJVSLFNXSVHQVDWLRQVIURPRXU
SK\VLFDODFWLYLWLHVVXFKDVZDONLQJRUWRXFKLQJ:LWKRXWSDLQWKHVSLQDOJDWLQJ
PHFKDQLVPLVFORVHGDQGVHQVDWLRQVDUHWUDQVPLWWHGWKURXJKWKHQHXUDOSDWKZD\VWR
WKHVSLQDOFROXPQWKURXJKWKHVSLQDOFROXPQWRWKHEUDLQ:KHQWKHSHULSKHUDO
QHUYHVDUHH[SRVHGWRLQMXULRXVVWLPXOLWKHSDWWHUQLQJRIVWLPXODWLRQPD\EHVR
LQWHQVHWKDWWKH\UHDFKDFHUWDLQWKUHVKROGDQGWKHEUDLQLQWHUSUHWVWKHVWLPXOXVDV
SDLQIXO7KHQWKHJDWHZLOORSHQDQGVHQVDWLRQVRISDLQZLOOEHWUDQVPLWWHGXSWKH
VSLQDOFROXPQWRWKHEUDLQ
7KHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\SURSRVHVWKDWWKHODUJHGLDPHWHUILEHUVSOD\DQLPSRUWDQW
UROHLQSDLQE\LQKLELWLQJV\QDSWLFWUDQVPLVVLRQLQGRUVDOKRUQFHOOV:KHQODUJHILEHU
LQSXWLVGHFUHDVHGPLOGVWLPXOLWKDWDUHQRWW\SLFDOO\SDLQIXOWULJJHUVHYHUHSDLQ/RVV
RIVHQVRU\LQSXWWRWKLVFRPSOH[QHXUDOV\VWHPVXFKDVLQQHXURSDWKLHVWHQGWR
ZHDNHQLQKLELWLRQDQGOHDGWRSHUVLVWHQWSDLQ,WLVSURSRVHGWKDWIDFWRUVVXFKDV
KHUQLDWHGGLVFPDWHULDORUWXPRUVPD\H[HUWSUHVVXUHRQWKHVHQHXUDOVWUXFWXUHVDQG
DOVROHDGWRSHUVLVWHQWSDLQ(PRWLRQDOVWUHVVDQGPHGLFDWLRQWKDWDIIHFWWKHUHWLFXODU
IRUPDWLRQPD\DOVRDOWHUWKHELDVLQJPHFKDQLVPDQGWKXVWKHLQWHQVLW\RISDLQ7XUN
)ORU
(PRWLRQVLQJHQHUDOFDQDOWHUWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHWKURXJKWKHFHQWUDOFRQWURO
PHFKDQLVP)RUH[DPSOHDQ[LHW\RUIHDUFDQH[DFHUEDWHWKHH[SHULHQFHRISDLQ
ZKLOHODXJKWHURUSRVLWLYHH[SHULHQFHVWHQGWRPXWHLW&RJDQ&RJDQ:DOW]
0F&XH
$FFRUGLQJWRWKHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\WKHH[SHULHQFHRISDLQLVDQRQJRLQJVHTXHQFH
RIDFWLYLWLHVWKDWHYHQLQWKHHDUO\VWDJHVLVPRGLILDEOHWKURXJKDYDULHW\RIH[FLWDWRU\
DQGLQKLELWRU\LQIOXHQFHVDVZHOODVWKHLQWHJUDWLRQRIDVFHQGLQJDQGGHVFHQGLQJ
QHUYRXVV\VWHPDFWLYLW\7KHUHVXOWRIWKLVSURFHVVLVWKHH[SUHVVLRQRISDLQERWK
YHUEDOO\DQGEHKDYLRUDOO\DQGDWWHPSWE\WKHLQGLYLGXDOWRWHUPLQDWHWKHSDLQ,QWKLV
PRGHOFRQVLGHUDEOHSRWHQWLDOIRUVKDSLQJRIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHLVLPSOLHGEHFDXVH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
34
WKHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\LQYRNHVFRQWLQXRXVLQWHUDFWLRQRIV\VWHPVVXFKDVVHQVRU\
SK\VLRORJLFDODIIHFWFRJQLWLRQDQGEHKDYLRU7XUN)ORU
7KHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\LQWHJUDWHVSHULSKHUDOVWLPXOLZLWKFRUWLFDOYDULDEOHVVXFKDV
PRRGDQGDQ[LHW\LQWKHSHUFHSWLRQRISDLQ7KLVPRGHOSRVWXODWHVWKDWERWKVRPDWLF
DQGSV\FKRJHQLFIDFWRUVKDYHHLWKHUDSRWHQWLDWLQJRUPRGHUDWLQJHIIHFWVRQSDLQ
SHUFHSWLRQ$FFRUGLQJWR0HO]DFNDQG:DOOSDLQLVQRWXQGHUVWRRGWREHWKH
UHVXOWRIGHSUHVVLRQRUYLFHYHUVDEXWUDWKHUWKHWZRDUHVHHQDVHYROYLQJ
VLPXOWDQHRXVO\$Q\VLJQLILFDQWFKDQJHVLQPRRGRULQWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHZLOODOWHU
WKHRWKHUIDFWRUV
6LQFHWKLVPRGHOHPSKDVL]HVWKHG\QDPLFUROHRIWKHEUDLQLQSDLQSURFHVVHVDQG
SHUFHSWLRQSV\FKRORJLFDOYDULDEOHVVXFKDVEHOLHIVSDVWH[SHULHQFHDQGRWKHU
FRJQLWLYHDFWLYLWLHVKDYHEHHQLQWHJUDWHGLQPRUHFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKDQGWKHUDS\
3UHYLRXVO\SV\FKRORJLFDOSURFHVVHVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGWREHVLPSO\UHDFWLRQVWRSDLQ
7KHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\VXJJHVWHGWKDWPDQ\IDFWRUVPRGXODWHGWKHLQSXW
6XPPDU\DQGFULWLTXHRIWKHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\6RPHRIWKHSK\VLRORJLFDOGHWDLOVRI
WKHJDWHFRQWUROPRGHOKDYHEHHQFKDOOHQJHGDQGLWKDVEHHQFKDUJHGZLWKEHLQJ
LQFRPSOHWH)RUH[DPSOHODUJHGLDPHWHUILEHUVPD\XQGHUFHUWDLQFRQGLWLRQVHJ
LQIODPPDWLRQLQFUHDVHUDWKHUWKDQGHFUHDVHSDLQSHUFHSWLRQ7XUN)ORU
)XUWKHUDOWKRXJKWKHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\SURYLGHVDSK\VLFDOEDVLVIRUWKHUROHRI
SV\FKRORJLFDOYDULDEOHVLQSDLQLWGRHVQRWGHVFULEHWKHPLQGHWDLO7KHRULJLQDOJDWH
FRQWUROWKHRU\KDVEHHQGLVSODFHGE\QXPHURXVDQGPRUHHOHJDQWPRGHOVRI
PRGXODWLRQRYHUWKHSDVWWKUHHGHFDGHV&XUUHQWO\WKHGRPLQDQWPRGHOLVWKH
'LIIXVH1R[LRXV,QKLELWRU\&RQWURO'1,&FRQFHSW'H%URXFNHU&HVDUR:LOOHU
/HEDUV%ULHIO\WKLVPRGHOIRFXVHVRQFRXQWHULUULWDWLRQDSKHQRPHQRQE\
ZKLFKDQDGGLWLRQDOQR[LRXVVWLPXOXVUHGXFHVWKHSDLQFDXVHGE\WKHLQLWLDOQR[LRXV
VWLPXOXV
1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\RISDLQKDVEHHQIXQGDPHQWDOLQWKH
FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQRIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFH7KHJDWHFRQWUROWKHRU\DFNQRZOHGJHVWKDW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
35
SDLQH[SHULHQFHVGLIIHULQWKHLUTXDOLWLHVWKDWWKHRYHUDOOSDWWHUQLQJLVLPSRUWDQWLQ
KRZSDLQLVLQWHUSUHWHGDQGWKDWSV\FKRORJLFDOSURFHVVHVDUHGHVFULEHGE\WKH
FHQWUDOFRQWUROPHFKDQLVP,WKHOSVH[SODLQWKHGLIIHUHQWNLQGVRISDLQWKDWLQGLYLGXDOV
H[SHULHQFHDQGLQWHJUDWHVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIVHQVRU\DIIHFWLYHDQGHYDOXDWLYH
FRPSRQHQWVRIWKHPRGHO7KHJDWHWKHRU\KDVEHHQKHOSIXOLQFOLQLFDOVHWWLQJVE\
VXJJHVWLQJWHFKQLTXHVRISDLQFRQWURODQGH[SODLQLQJWKHZD\LQZKLFKSDLQFRQWURO
PHWKRGVZRUN7D\ORU
9XOQHUDELOLW\'LDWKHVLV6WUHVV0RGHO
,QWKLVPRGHOWKHSDWKRJHQHVLVRIFKURQLFSDLQRULJLQDWHVLQWKHQHXURELRORJLFDODQG
SV\FKRVRFLDOSUHGLVSRVLQJIDFWRUVWKDWSUHFHGHWKHRQVHWRISDLQ7KHQHXURELRORJLFDO
IDFWRUVWKDWSUHGLVSRVHLQGLYLGXDOVWRGHYHORSFKURQLFSDLQDUHXQGRXEWHGO\GLYHUVH
7KH\LQFOXGHJHQHWLFIDFWRUVWKDWXQGHUOLHLQGLYLGXDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQSK\VLRORJ\RU
VWUXFWXUHWKDWPDNHDQLQGLYLGXDOPRUHOLNHO\WRGHYHORSFKURQLFSDLQHJVFROLRVLV
7KHVHQHXURELRORJLFDOIDFWRUVDOVRLQFOXGHSK\VLRORJLFDODQGVWUXFWXUDODEQRUPDOLWLHV
UHVXOWLQJIURPSULRUGLVHDVHRULQMXU\HJPXVFXORVNHOHWDOSDWKRORJ\6LQFHIHZ
SURVSHFWLYHVWXGLHVKDYHEHHQFRQGXFWHGWKDWGLUHFWO\DGGUHVVQHXURORJLFDO
SUHGLVSRVLQJIDFWRUVLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFKURQLFSDLQRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHVH
IDFWRUVLVEDVHGRQDQLPDOPRGHOVFOLQLFDOREVHUYDWLRQVDQGVWXGLHVRISDWLHQWV
DOUHDG\VXIIHULQJIURPFKURQLFSDLQ
7KHSV\FKRVRFLDOIDFWRUVWKDWSUHGLVSRVHLQGLYLGXDOVWRGHYHORSFKURQLFSDLQDUHDOVR
OLNHO\WREHGLYHUVH6XFKIDFWRUVSUREDEO\LQFOXGHSDLQUHOHYDQWSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWV
HJVRPDWL]DWLRQK\SHUYLJLODQFHDQGSV\FKRSDWKRORJ\DQGHVSHFLDOO\PRRG
DQ[LHW\DQGVXEVWDQFHDEXVHGLVRUGHUV'ZRUNLQ3K\VLFDODQGVH[XDODEXVH
DQGRWKHUWUDXPDWLFHYHQWVHJHPRWLRQDODEXVHDQGQHJOHFWRFFXUULQJEHIRUHWKH
RQVHWRISDLQHVSHFLDOO\GXULQJFKLOGKRRGDOVRDSSHDUWREHULVNIDFWRUVIRUWKH
GHYHORSPHQWRIFKURQLFSDLQ/LQWRQ,QDGGLWLRQWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VSULRU
H[SHULHQFHVZLWKSDLQPD\DOVREHDSV\FKRVRFLDOSUHGLVSRVLQJRUSURWHFWLYHIDFWRU
DOWKRXJKLWLVSRVVLEOHWKDWVXFKH[SHULHQFHVUHVXOWVLQIRUH[DPSOHFHQWUDO
VHQVLWL]DWLRQRULQFUHDVHGGHVFHQGLQJLQKLELWLRQDQGFRXOGWKHUHIRUHEHFRQVLGHUHG
QHXURELRORJLFDOSUHGLVSRVLQJIDFWRUV'ZRUNLQ%DQNV2WKHUSDLQUHOHYDQW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
36
DWWLWXGHVEHOLHIVDQGEHKDYLRUVWKDWDUHDFRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶V
VRFLDOL]DWLRQH[SHULHQFHVDQGWKDWGHYHORSGXULQJFKLOGKRRGDQGDGROHVFHQFHDUHYHU\
OLNHO\WREHSV\FKRVRFLDOSUHGLVSRVLQJIDFWRUV)RUH[DPSOHPRGHOLQJRIUHVSRQVHVWR
SDLQDQGLOOQHVVE\VLJQLILFDQWRWKHUVLQFKLOGKRRGDQGDGROHVFHQFHLVFRPPRQO\
WKRXJKWWREHDQLPSRUWDQWLQIOXHQFHRQKRZDQDGXOWUHVSRQGVWRDSDLQIXOLQMXU\RU
LOOQHVV'ZRUNLQ%DQNV8QIRUWXQDWHO\KRZHYHUYLUWXDOO\DOOH[LVWLQJVWXGLHV
RIWKLVTXHVWLRQPDNHLWLPSRVVLEOHWRGLVWLQJXLVKWKHUHODWLYHHIIHFWVRIVKDUHG
JHQHWLFDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLQIOXHQFHV
,QWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\GLDWKHVLVVWUHVVPRGHORIFKURQLFSDLQSURSRVHGE\'ZRUNLQDQG
%DQNVWKHQHXURELRORJLFDODQGSV\FKRVRFLDOSUHGLVSRVLQJIDFWRUVWKDWSUHFHGH
WKHRQVHWRISDLQFRQVWLWXWHWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\FRPSRQHQWRIWKHPRGHO7KLV
YXOQHUDELOLW\LVFRQFHSWXDOL]HGDVDFRQWLQXXPWRZKLFKERWKWKHQHXURORJLFDODQG
SV\FKRVRFLDOSUHGLVSRVLQJIDFWRUVFRQWULEXWH,QGLYLGXDOVWKHUHIRUHUDQJHIURPORZWR
KLJKLQWKHLUYXOQHUDELOLW\WRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFKURQLFSDLQ
6WUHVV
6HO\HGHVFULEHGVWUHVVDVDELRORJLFDOUHVSRQVHWRDZLGHUDQJHRIVWUHVVRUV
7KH\LQFOXGHSK\VLFDOLQMXU\LQIHFWLRQDQGRWKHUSDWKRORJ\DVZHOODVSV\FKRORJLFDO
VWUHVVRUVVXFKDVWKHORVVRIDMRERUGHDWKRIDVSRXVH$FXUUHQWGHILQLWLRQRIVWUHVV
LVWKDWKRPHRVWDVLVLVEHLQJWKUHDWHQHG7KDWLVDGLVUXSWLRQE\VWUHVVRUVRI
SK\VLRORJLFDOSURFHVVHVVXFKDVEORRGVXJDUOHYHODQGERG\WHPSHUDWXUHWKDWDUH
QRUPDOO\PDLQWDLQHGDWDIL[HGGHOLFDWHO\EDODQFHGVHWSRLQW&KURXVRV
7KHGLVUXSWLRQRIKRPHRVWDVLVE\DVWUHVVRUHLWKHUSK\VLFDORUSV\FKRORJLFDO
DFWLYDWHVSURJUDPVDXWRPDWLFSURFHVVHVRIQHXUDOKRUPRQDODQGEHKDYLRUDODFWLYLW\
DLPHGDWUHVWRULQJKRPHRVWDVLV7KHSDUWLFXODUSURJUDPVWKDWDUHDFWLYDWHGDUH
VHOHFWHGIURPDJHQHWLFDOO\GHWHUPLQHGUHSHUWRLUHRISURJUDPVZKLFKDUHPRGLILDEOH
E\HYHQWVVXFKDVHDUOLHUH[SRVXUHWRVWUHVVDQGDUHLQIOXHQFHGE\WKHH[WHQWDQG
VHYHULW\RIWKHSHUFHLYHGVWUHVV0HO]DFN
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
37
,WLVSURSRVHGWKDWWKHLQWHUDFWLQJQHXUDODQGKRUPRQDOIDFWRUVWKDWFRQWULEXWHWR
KRPHRVWDVLVDUHVRFRPSOH[WKDWLWLVQRWVXUSULVLQJWKDWWKHSURJUDPVWRUHLQVWDWH
KRPHRVWDVLVRFFDVLRQDOO\JRDZU\0HO]DFNSURSRVHVWKDWWKHFRQVHTXHQFHLV
DYDULHW\RIVWUHVVUHODWHGGLVRUGHUVZKLFKLQFOXGHVHYHUDOFKURQLFSDLQV\QGURPHV
5HFHQWUHVHDUFKKDVEHHQGLUHFWHGWRZDUGVWHVWLQJWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDWVWUHVVPD\
SURGXFHWKHFRQGLWLRQVWKDWJLYHULVHWRVRPHIRUPVRIFKURQLFSDLQ
7KHXQGHUO\LQJSULQFLSOHRIWKLVK\SRWKHVLVLVWKHQHXURPDWUL[WKHRU\RISDLQ
0HO]DFN,WSURSRVHVWKDWSDLQLVDPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOH[SHULHQFHSURGXFHGE\
FKDUDFWHULVWLF³QHXURVLJQDWXUH´SDWWHUQVRIQHUYHLPSXOVHVJHQHUDWHGE\DZLGHO\
GLVWULEXWHGQHXUDOQHWZRUN±WKH³ERG\VHOIQHXURPDWUL[´±LQWKHEUDLQ:KDWLV
LQWHUHVWLQJDERXWWKLVWKHRU\LVWKDWWKHQHXURVLJQDWXUHSDWWHUQVPD\EHWULJJHUHGE\
VHQVRU\LQSXWVEXWWKH\PD\DOVREHJHQHUDWHGLQGHSHQGHQWO\RIWKHP3DLQ
UHVXOWLQJIURPQR[LRXVVHQVRU\LQSXWVKDVEHHQZHOOUHVHDUFKHG0HO]DFN:DOO
LQFRQWUDVWFKURQLFSDLQV\QGURPHVZKLFKDUHRIWHQFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\VHYHUH
SDLQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKOLWWOHRUQRGLVFHUQLEOHLQMXU\RUSDWKRORJ\DUHSRRUO\
XQGHUVWRRG7KHQHXURPDWUL[WKHRU\SURYLGHVWKHFRQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUNWKDWKHOSV
UHVHDUFKHUVEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGSDLQIURPERWKQR[LRXVVHQVRU\LQSXWVDQGSDLQZLWK
QRSDWKRORJ\DVLQFKURQLFSDLQV\QGURPHV
$FFRUGLQJWRWKHQHXURPDWUL[WKHRU\SDLQLVSURGXFHGE\WKHRXWSXWRIDZLGHO\
GLVWULEXWHGQHXUDOQHWZRUNLQWKHEUDLQUDWKHUWKDQGLUHFWO\E\VHQVRU\LQSXWHYRNHG
E\LQMXU\LQIODPPDWLRQRURWKHUSDWKRORJ\0HO]DFN7KHSULPDU\
PHFKDQLVPWKHQHXURPDWUL[JHQHUDWHVWKHQHXUDOSDWWHUQWKDWSURGXFHVSDLQDQGLW
LVJHQHWLFDOO\GHWHUPLQHGDQGPRGLILHGE\VHQVRU\H[SHULHQFH,WVRXWSXWSDWWHUQLV
GHWHUPLQHGE\PXOWLSOHLQIOXHQFHVRIZKLFKWKHVRPDWLFVHQVRU\LQSXWLVRQO\DSDUW
WKDWFRQYHUJHRQWKHQHXURPDWUL[0HO]DFN
)XUWKHU0HO]DFNHPSKDVL]HVWKDWSDLQGLVUXSWVWKHERG\¶VKRPHRVWDWLF
UHJXODWLRQV\VWHPVWKHUHE\SURGXFLQJVWUHVVDQGLQLWLDWLQJFRPSOH[SURJUDPVWR
UHVWRUHKRPHRVWDVLV3DLQWKHUHIRUHLVQRORQJHUDSXUHO\SHUFHSWXDOSKHQRPHQRQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
38
%\UHFRJQL]LQJWKHUROHRIWKHVWUHVVV\VWHPLQSDLQWKHVFRSHRIWKHSX]]OHRISDLQLV
JUHDWO\H[SDQGHG
'XHWRWKHFRPSOH[LW\RIWKHVWUHVVUHJXODWLRQV\VWHPDVFKHPDWLFSUHVHQWDWLRQRI
WKHPDMRUFRPSRQHQWVZLOOEHJLYHQEHORZ)RUPRUHGHWDLOVUHJDUGLQJSURJUDPV
LQYROYLQJWKHFRUWLVROV\VWHPWKHLPPXQHV\VWHPWKHKRPHRVWDWLFUHJXODWLRQSOHDVH
UHIHUWRDPRQJRWKHUV0HO]DFN6DSROVN\&KURXVRV
0HFKDQLVPV:KHQLQMXU\RFFXUVVHQVRU\LQIRUPDWLRQLVSURMHFWHGUDSLGO\WRWKH
EUDLQDQGLQSDUDOOHOZLWKWKHQHXURPDWUL[DFWLYLWLHVWKDWXVXDOO\OHDGWRSDLQ
SHUFHSWLRQWKHVWUHVVV\VWHPLQLWLDWHVWKHFRPSOH[VHTXHQFHRIHYHQWVWRUHVWRUH
ELRORJLFDOKRPHRVWDVLV$FWLYLWLHVRIWKHLQMXUHGWLVVXHVSURGXFHF\WRNLQHVZKLFKDUH
FRPSOH[PROHFXOHVSURGXFHGE\WKHLQWHUDFWLRQRIWUDQVIRUPHGZKLWHEORRGFHOOV
PDFURSKDJHVDQGLQMXUHGWLVVXH7KHVHF\WRNLQHVDUHUHOHDVHGZLWKLQVHFRQGVDIWHU
LQMXU\DQGWDNHSDUWLQSURGXFLQJDORFDOLQIODPPDWRU\UHVSRQVH:LWKLQPLQXWHV
F\WRNLQHVHQWHUWKHEORRGVWUHDPDQGWUDYHOWRWKHEUDLQ7KHF\WRNLQHVWRJHWKHU
ZLWKWKHSHUFHSWLRQRISDLQ±DVWUHVVRU±UDSLGO\EHJLQDVHTXHQFHRIDFWLYLWLHV
DLPHGDWWKHUHOHDVHDQGXWLOL]DWLRQRIJOXFRVHIRUQHFHVVDU\DFWLRQVVXFKDVWKH
UHSDLURUWLVVXHVDQG³ILJKWRUIOLJKWÚHVSRQVHVWRVXUYLYHWKHWKUHDWWRWKHERG\VHOI
0HO]DFN
&\WRNLQHVWKDWSHQHWUDWHWKHK\SRWKDODPXVDFWLYDWHWKHK\SRWKDODPLFSLWXLWDU\
DGUHQDO+3$V\VWHPLQZKLFKWKHFRUWLVROUHOHDVLQJKRUPRQH&5+Æ$&7+LVVHW
IUHH&RUWLVROSOD\VDSRZHUIXOUROHLQWKHVWUHVVUHVSRQVH$WWKHVDPHWLPHWKH
DXWRQRPLFV\VWHPLVDFWLYDWHG'XULQJWKHVWUHVVUHVSRQVHWKHV\PSDWKHWLFV\VWHP
SUHGRPLQDWHVDQGSURGXFHVUHDGLQHVVRIWKHKHDUWEORRGYHVVHOVDQGRWKHUYLVFHUD
IRUFRPSOH[DFWLRQSURJUDPVWRUHVSRQGDSSURSULDWHO\WRWKHVWUHVVRUDQGWRUHLQVWDWH
KRPHRVWDVLV&KURXVRV
$VWKHVWUHVVUHVSRQVHFRQWLQXHVLWKDVDSRZHUIXOLPSDFWRQRWKHUV\VWHPV7KH
LPPXQHV\VWHPLVVXSSUHVVHGDQGPDMRUSRUWLRQVRIWKHOLPELFV\VWHPZKLFKSOD\D
UROHLQHPRWLRQDOPRWLYDWLRQDOKRPHRVWDWLFDQGFRJQLWLYHSURFHVVHVDUHDFWLYDWHG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
39
)XUWKHUPRUHWKHHQGRJHQRXVRSLRGVVXFKDVHQGRUSKLQVDUHUHOHDVHGZLWKLQ
PLQXWHV7KHLULQLWLDOIXQFWLRQPD\EHSULPDULO\WRLQKLELWRUPRGXODWHWKHUHOHDVHRI
FRUWLVRO&KURXVRV6DSROVN\7KLVKLJKO\VLPSOLILHGGHVFULSWLRQGRHVQRW
LQFOXGHPXOWLSOHQHXUDODQGKRUPRQDOV\VWHPVWKDWWDNHSDUWLQWKHVWUHVVUHVSRQVH
$FFRUGLQJWR0HO]DFNWKHVWUHVVDQGWKHSDLQSHUFHSWLRQV\VWHPVSRVVHVV
RYHUODSSLQJPHFKDQLVPV,QMXU\SURGXFHVLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWIHHGVLQWRWKHERG\VHOI
QHXURPDWUL[WKDWJHQHUDWHVWKHRXWSXWSDWWHUQVWKDWFRPSULVHWKHQHXURVLJQDWXUHIRU
WKHSHUFHSWLRQRIWKHH[WHQWDQGVHYHULW\RIWKHLQMXU\DQGFRQFXUUHQWO\DFWLYDWHWKH
DSSURSULDWHDFWLRQSDWWHUQVWREHFKRVHQIURPWKHDYDLODEOHSRRO0HO]DFN:DOO
7KLVRXWSXWWRJHWKHUZLWKLQIRUPDWLRQJHQHUDWHGE\WKHQHXURPDWUL[HVWKDW
UHFHLYHLQSXWVIURPWKHRWKHUVHQVRU\DQGFRJQLWLYHV\VWHPVDFWVRQWKHVWUHVV
UHJXODWLRQPHFKDQLVPVWKDWDUHSDUWRIWKHV\VWHPDQGGHWHUPLQHVZKHWKHURUQRW
SDLQZLOOEHH[SHULHQFHGRUVXSSUHVVHG0HO]DFN:DOO7RSURYHWKHLUSRLQW
0HO]DFNDQG:DOOH[SODLQWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVZKRXQGHUJRVHYHUHLQMXU\PD\QRW
IHHODQ\SDLQIRUDVORQJDVKRXUVHYHQGD\VDIWHUZDUG%HFDXVHWKHVWUHVVV\VWHP
UHTXLUHVDERXWPLQXWHVWREHDFWLYDWHGWKHHQGRUSKLQDQGRWKHURSLRG
VXEVWDQFHVUHOHDVHGE\VWUHVVRUVFDQQRWEHWKHGHWHUPLQDQWRIWKHFRPSOHWH
VXSSUHVVLRQRISDLQDIWHULQMXU\5DWKHUWKHQHXURPDWUL[HVWKDWJHQHUDWHVHQVRU\
GLVFULPLQDWLYHDQGHYDOXDWLYHLQIRUPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJWKHVWDWHRIWKHERG\DQGWKH
FLUFXPVWDQFHVRILQMXU\GHWHUPLQHWKHLQLWLDODFWLYDWLRQRIVXSSUHVVLRQRIWKHSDLQ
LQIODPPDWLRQSURFHVVHVDQGLPPXQHV\VWHPV6DSROVN\
3URORQJHGDFWLYDWLRQRIWKHVWUHVVUHJXODWLRQV\VWHPVSURGXFHVEUHDNGRZQRIPXVFOH
ERQHDQGQHXUDOWLVVXH([FHVVLYHO\ORQJRULQWHQVHDFWLYDWLRQRIWKHVHV\VWHPV
WKHUHIRUHFDQKDYHGLVDVWURXVFRQVHTXHQFHV0HO]DFN7KH\PD\SURYLGHWKH
FRQGLWLRQVIRUWKHRQVHWRIFKURQLFSDLQV\QGURPHVLQFOXGLQJILEURP\DOJLDDQG
RVWHRSRURVLV
,PSOLFDWLRQVRIVWUHVVUHJXODWLRQ3V\FKRORJLFDOFRQWULEXWLRQWRSDLQ&RUWLVROLV
UHOHDVHGE\HLWKHUSV\FKRORJLFDOVWUHVVRUSK\VLFDOLQMXU\6DSROVN\KDV
SURSRVHGWKDWWKHFXPXODWLYHUHOHDVHRISXOVHVRIFRUWLVROLVDPDMRUGHWHUPLQDQWRI
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
40
SDWKRORJ\$OOSV\FKRORJLFDOVWUHVVHVPD\FRQWULEXWHWRWKHQHXURQHQGRFULQH
SURFHVVHVWKDWJLYHULVHWRSDLQV\QGURPHVDQGSV\FKRORJLFDOWKHUDSLHVWKDWFRQWURO
VWUHVVXOWLPDWHO\DIIHFWFRUWLVROUHOHDVHDQGWKHUHIRUHLQIOXHQFHWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI
FKURQLFSDLQ$GHFUHDVHLQFRUWLVRORXWSXWE\SV\FKRORJLFDOWKHUDS\PD\QRWE\LWVHOI
EHVXIILFLHQWWRSURGXFHDPDMRUUHGXFWLRQLQSDLQEXWLWVKRXOGEHSDUWRIPXOWLSOH
WKHUDSLHVWKDWFDQKDYHDGGLWLYHHIIHFWVLQGHFUHDVLQJWKHGHVWUXFWLYHHIIHFWVRI
FRUWLVRO
(DFKNLQGRIVWUHVVRUFDQSURGXFHSK\VLRORJLFDOHIIHFWVWKDWDUHFRPELQHGZLWKWKH
HIIHFWVRIRWKHUVWUHVVRUV6DSROVN\HPSKDVL]HVWKDWWKHVWUHVVHIIHFWVRIDQ
LQMXU\FDQYDU\LQVHYHULW\DQGSDWWHUQDVDIXQFWLRQRIRWKHUVWUHVVHVVXFKDVORVVRI
VHOIHVWHHPHPSOR\PHQWRURWKHUVHFXULW\V\PEROV,QGLYLGXDOYDULDWLRQLQUHVSRQVH
WRLQMXU\RURWKHUVWUHVVHVPD\EHLQIOXHQFHGE\WKHHQKDQFHPHQWRIDJLYHQVWUHVV
E\RWKHUFRQFXUUHQWVWUHVVWKHFXPXODWLYHHIIHFWRISULRUVWUHVVHV
GHWHUPLQHGSDUWO\E\WKHLUSDWWHUQRIDSSHDUDQFHWKHNLQGVRIFRQFXUUHQWRU
SULRUVWUHVV±WKDWLVSV\FKRORJLFDORUSK\VLFDODQGWKHVHYHULW\DQGGXUDWLRQRI
WKHVWUHVVHV0HO]DFN
7KHQHXURPDWUL[WKHRU\SURYLGHVDUHDVRQDEOHPHFKDQLVPZKHUHE\SV\FKRORJLFDO
VWUHVVHVPD\SURYLGHWKDWEDVLVIRUFKURQLFSDLQ6WUHVVRUVKDYHGHVWUXFWLYHHIIHFWV
RQPXVFOHVNHOHWDODQGKLSSRFDPSDOQHXUDOWLVVXHZKLFKPD\EHFRPHWKH
LPPHGLDWHEDVLVRISDLQRUSURYLGHDEDVLVIRUWKHGHYDVWDWLQJHIIHFWVRIODWHUPLQRU
LQMXULHVLQZKLFKWKHVHYHULW\RISDLQLVGLVSURSRUWLRQDWHO\IDUJUHDWHUWKDQZRXOGEH
H[SHFWHGIURPWKHLQMXU\0HO]DFN
0HO]DFNSURSRVHVIXUWKHUWKDWSV\FKRORJLFDOVWUHVVDORQHFRXOGEHFRPHD
FDXVHRIFKURQLFSDLQEHFDXVHLWSURGXFHVVXEVWDQFHVWKDWKDYHGHVWUXFWLYHHIIHFWV
RQERG\WLVVXH3URORQJHGVWUHVVIXOHYHQWVFDQOHDYHD³PHPRU\´HWFKHGLQWRERQH
PXVFOHDQGQHUYHWLVVXHMXVWDVDQLQMXU\VFXOSWVDQHXURQDOSDWWHUQLQWRWKH
QHXURPDWUL[6WUHVVOLNHSDLQKRZHYHULVDVXEMHFWLYHH[SHULHQFH7KUHDWHQLQJ
VHQVRU\RUFRJQLWLYHHYHQWVPD\RUPD\QRWEHSHUFHLYHGDVVWUHVVRUVMXVWDVWKH
VHQVRU\LQSXWIURPDQLQMXU\PD\RUPD\QRWEHSHUFHLYHGDVSDLQ(YHQZKHQSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
41
LVH[SHULHQFHGLWPD\EHDVWUHVVRULILWLPSOLHVGDQJHUDQGWKUHDWWRVXUYLYDORIWKH
VHOISK\VLFDOO\RUSV\FKRORJLFDOO\,QFRQWUDVWDPDMRULQMXU\PD\HYRNHOLWWOHRUQR
VWUHVVLILWLVSHUFHLYHGDVDVXFFHVVIXOHVFDSHIURPGDQJHUVXFKDVDEDWWOHILHOG
3UHGLFWRUVRI&KURQLF3DLQ$IXUWKHULPSRUWDQWIHDWXUHRIFKURQLFSDLQWKDWLPSOLFDWHV
WKHVWUHVVV\VWHPLVWKHIDFWWKDWWKHVHYHULW\RISDLQGXULQJDQLQMXU\RULQIHFWLRQLVD
PDMRUSUHGLFWRURIWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIVXEVHTXHQWSHUVLVWHQWSDLQ0DOHQIDQW)RUJHW
3DSLOORQ$PVHO)ULJRQ&KRLQLqUHIRXQGWKDWSDWLHQWVZLWKVHYHUHEXUQV
ZKRVXIIHUWKHPRVWLQWHQVHSDLQLQWKHLQLWLDOVWDJHVRIUHFRYHU\DQGKHDOLQJDUHWKH
RQHVPRVWOLNHO\WRKDYHSHUVLVWHQWSDLQWKDWFRQWLQXHVRYHU\HDUVDIWHUIXOOKHDOLQJ
KDVRFFXUUHG.DW]-DFNVRQ.DYDQJDJKDQG6DQGOHUREVHUYHGWKDWSDWLHQWV
UHSRUWLQJLQWHQVHSDLQGXULQJWKHILUVWGD\VDIWHUDFKHVWRSHUDWLRQDUHPXFKPRUH
OLNHO\WRUHSRUWSHUVLVWHQWFKHVWSDLQò\HDUVSRVWRSHUDWLYHWKDQSDWLHQWVZKRZHUH
SDLQIUHHDIWHUWKHRSHUDWLRQ7KHVHDQGRWKHUVWXGLHVVHHPWRVKRZWKDWVHYHUH
SDLQZKLFKLVDSRZHUIXOVWUHVVRULVDPDMRUGHWHUPLQDQWRIFKURQLFSDLQWKDW
UHPDLQVDIWHUKHDOLQJKDVRFFXUUHGZKHQWKHUHDUHQRREYLRXVSK\VLFDOFDXVHVRIWKH
VHYHUHSDLQVXIIHUHGE\WKHSDWLHQWV,WLVUHDVRQDEOHWRDVVXPHWKHQWKDWWKHLQLWLDO
SDLQDQGVWUHVVSURGXFHGFKDQJHVLQERWKWKHSHUFHSWXDODQGVWUHVVV\VWHPVWKDW
FRQWULEXWHGWRWKHDEQRUPDORXWSXWSDWWHUQVRIWKHERG\VHOIQHXURPDWUL[
6XPPDU\,QVXPPDU\WKHQHXURPDWUL[WKHRU\RISDLQSURSRVHVWKDWWKH
QHXURVLJQDWXUHIRUSDLQH[SHULHQFHLVGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHV\QDSWLFDUFKLWHFWXUHRIWKH
QHXURPDWUL[ZKLFKLVSURGXFHGE\JHQHWLFDQGVHQVRU\LQIOXHQFHV0HO]DFN
0HO]DFNSURSRVHVIXUWKHUWKDWWKHQHXURVLJQDWXUHLVDOVRPRGXODWHGE\VHQVRU\
LQSXWVDQGE\FRJQLWLYHHYHQWVVXFKDVSV\FKRORJLFDOVWUHVV,WPD\DOVRRFFXU
EHFDXVHVWUHVVRUVSK\VLFDODVZHOODVSV\FKRORJLFDODFWRQVWUHVVUHJXODWLRQ
V\VWHPVZKLFKPD\SURGXFHOHVLRQVRIPXVFOHERQHDQGQHUYHWLVVXHWKHUHE\
FRQWULEXWLQJWRWKHQHXURVLJQDWXUHSDWWHUQVWKDWJLYHULVHWRFKURQLFSDLQ6LPSO\
VDLGWKHQHXURPDWUL[DVDUHVXOWRIKRPHRVWDVLVUHJXODWLRQSDWWHUQVWKDWKDYHIDLOHG
SURGXFHVWKHGHVWUXFWLYHFRQGLWLRQVWKDWPD\JLYHULVHWRPDQ\RIWKHFKURQLFSDLQ
W\SHVWKDWVRIDUKDYHEHHQUHVLVWDQWWRWUHDWPHQWVGHYHORSHGSULPDULO\WRPDQDJH
SDLQWKDWDUHWULJJHUHGE\VHQVRU\LQSXWV7KHVWUHVVUHJXODWLRQV\VWHPZLWKLWV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
42
FRPSOH[GHOLFDWHO\EDODQFHGLQWHUDFWLRQVLVDQLQWHJUDOSDUWRIWKHPXOWLSOH
FRQWULEXWRUVZKLFKJLYHULVHWRFKURQLFSDLQ
0HO]DFNDUJXHVWKDWVLQFHWKHQHXURPDWUL[RISDLQSODFHVJHQHWLF
FRQWULEXWLRQVDQGQHXUDOKRUPRQDOPHFKDQLVPVRIVWUHVVRQDOHYHORIHTXDO
LPSRUWDQFHZLWKWKHQHXUDOPHFKDQLVPVRIVHQVRU\WUDQVPLVVLRQGHVFULEHGLQWKH
ELRPHGLFDOPRGHODERYHWKLVPRGHOKDVLPSRUWDQWLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUUHVHDUFKDQG
WKHUDS\)XUWKHU0HO]DFNSURSRVHVWKDWLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\SDLQFOLQLFVVKRXOG
H[SDQGWRLQFOXGHVSHFLDOLVWVLQHQGRFULQRORJ\DQGLPPXQRORJ\LQRUGHUWRUHYHDOWKH
XQGHUO\LQJPHFKDQLVPVRIFKURQLFSDLQ
%HKDYLRUDO)DFWRUV
2SHUDQWOHDUQLQJPHFKDQLVPV$FKDQJHLQWKLQNLQJEHJDQDV)RUG\FH
GHVFULEHGWKHUROHRIRSHUDQWIDFWRUVLQFKURQLFSDLQ7KHRSHUDQWDSSURDFKLV
PDUNHGO\GLIIHUHQWWKDQWKHELRPHGLFDOPRGHOGHVFULEHGDERYH7KLVDSSURDFK
HPSKDVL]HVWKHEHKDYLRUDOPDQLIHVWDWLRQVRISDLQQRWWKHSDLQSHUVH,WLV
VXJJHVWHGWKDWZKHQDQLQGLYLGXDOLVH[SRVHGWRDVWLPXOXVWKDWFDXVHVWLVVXH
GDPDJHWKHLPPHGLDWHUHVSRQVHLVZLWKGUDZDODQGDWWHPSWVWRHVFDSHIURPWKH
QR[LRXVVHQVDWLRQV7KLVPD\EHDFFRPSOLVKHGE\DYRLGDQFHRIDFWLYLW\EHOLHYHGWR
FDXVHRUH[DFHUEDWHSDLQVHHNLQJKHOSWRUHGXFHV\PSWRPVDQGVRIRUWK7KHVH
EHKDYLRUVDUHREVHUYDEOHDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\VXEMHFWWRWKHSULQFLSOHVRIRSHUDQW
FRQGLWLRQLQJ
7KHRSHUDQWYLHZSURSRVHVWKDWDFXWH³SDLQEHKDYLRUV´VXFKDVOLPSLQJWRSURWHFWD
ZRXQGHGOLPEIURPSURGXFLQJDGGLWLRQDOQRFLFHSWLYHLQSXWPD\FRPHXQGHUWKH
FRQWURORIH[WHUQDOFRQWLQJHQFLHVRIUHLQIRUFHPHQWDQGWKXVGHYHORSLQWRDFKURQLF
SDLQSUREOHP7XUN)ORU3DLQEHKDYLRUVHJLQDFWLYLW\FRPSODLQLQJ
JULPDFLQJPD\EHSRVLWLYHO\UHLQIRUFHGGLUHFWO\IRUH[DPSOHE\DWWHQWLRQIURPD
VSRXVHRUKHDOWKFDUHSURYLGHUV3DLQEHKDYLRUPD\DOVREHPDLQWDLQHGE\DYRLGLQJ
XQGHVLUDEOHDFWLYLWLHVVXFKDVZRUNRUE\HVFDSLQJIURPQR[LRXVVWLPXODWLRQWKURXJK
WKHXVHRIGUXJVRUUHVW,QDGGLWLRQ³ZHOOEHKDYLRUV´VXFKDVDFWLYLW\DQGZRUNPD\
QRWEHVXIILFLHQWO\UHLQIRUFHGDQGWKHSDLQEHKDYLRUVPD\WKHUHIRUHEHPDLQWDLQHG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
43
7KHSDLQEHKDYLRURULJLQDOO\HOLFLWHGE\RUJDQLFIDFWRUVPD\H[LVWSXUHO\RULQSDUWLQ
UHVSRQVHWRUHLQIRUFLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUV7D\ORU7KLVRSHUDQW
SHUVSHFWLYHVXJJHVWVWKDWSDLQEHKDYLRUVPD\SHUVLVWORQJDIWHUWKHLQLWLDOFDXVHRI
WKHSDLQLVUHVROYHG
7KLVPRGHOGRHVQRWIRFXVRQWKHLQLWLDOFDXVHRISDLQLQVWHDGLWHPSKDVL]HVWKH
VXEMHFWLYHH[SHULHQFHDQGWKHFRPPXQLFDWLYHIXQFWLRQRISDLQEHKDYLRUV,QWKLV
PRGHOKRZHYHUWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVDUHWUHDWHGDVVHFRQGDU\DVUHDFWLRQVWR
VHQVRU\VWLPXODWLRQ±DVLQWKHELRPHGLFDOPRGHO±UDWKHUWKDQDVEHLQJGLUHFWO\
LQYROYHGLQWKHSHUFHSWLRQRISDLQSHUVH$OWKRXJKRSHUDQWIDFWRUVXQGRXEWHGO\SOD\
DUROHLQWKHPDLQWHQDQFHRIGLVDELOLW\WKH\GRQRWH[SODLQWKHHQWLUHH[SHULHQFHRI
SDLQ7KLVPRGHOKDVEHHQFULWLFL]HGIRULWVUHOLDQFHRQPRWRUSDLQEHKDYLRUVDQGLWV
IDLOXUHWRFRQVLGHUFRJQLWLYHDQGHPRWLRQDODVSHFWV7XUN)ORU1HYHUWKHOHVV
WKLVPRGHOPD\SURYHXVHIXOLQDUHDVDGGUHVVLQJYHUEDOVXEMHFWLYHDQGSK\VLRORJLFDO
UHVSRQVHVWRSDLQVLQFHUHFHQWUHVHDUFKVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHVHDUHDVDUHVXEMHFWWR
RSHUDQWOHDUQLQJ
5HVSRQGHQW/HDUQLQJ0HFKDQLVPV)DFWRUVFRQWULEXWLQJWRFKURQLFLW\WKDWKDYH
SUHYLRXVO\EHHQFRQFHSWXDOL]HGLQWHUPVRIRSHUDQWOHDUQLQJPD\DOVREHLQLWLDWHGDQG
PDLQWDLQHGE\UHVSRQGHQWFRQGLWLRQLQJ)RUG\FHDQGFROOHDJXHV)RUG\FH6KHOWRQ
'XQGRUHSURSRVHGWKDWDYRLGDQFHEHKDYLRUGRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\UHTXLUH
LQWHUPLWWHQWVHQVRU\VWLPXODWLRQIURPWKHVLWHRIERGLO\GDPDJHHQYLURQPHQWDO
UHLQIRUFHPHQWRUVXFFHVVIXODYRLGDQFHRIDYHUVLYHVRFLDODFWLYLW\WRDFFRXQWIRUWKH
PDLQWHQDQFHRISURWHFWLYHPRYHPHQWV$YRLGDQFHRIDFWLYLWLHVKDVEHHQVKRZQWREH
UHODWHGPRUHWRDQ[LHW\DERXWSDLQWKDQWRDFWXDOUHLQIRUFHPHQW/LQWRQ
$WWKHRQVHWRIDFXWHSDLQIHDURIPRWRUDFWLYLWLHVWKDWWKHSDWLHQWH[SHFWVWRUHVXOW
LQSDLQPD\GHYHORSDQGPRWLYDWHDYRLGDQFHRIDFWLYLW\1RQRFFXUDQFHRISDLQLVD
SRZHUIXOUHLQIRUFHUIRUUHGXFWLRQRIDFWLYLW\DQGWKXVWKHRULJLQDOUHVSRQGHQW
FRQGLWLRQLQJPD\EHIROORZHGE\DQRSHUDQWOHDUQLQJSURFHVVZKHUHE\WKH
QRFLFHSWLYHVWLPXOLDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGUHVSRQVHVQHHGQRORQJHUEHSUHVHQWIRUWKH
DYRLGDQFHEHKDYLRUWRRFFXU7XUN)ORU5HGXFWLRQRIPRYHPHQWPD\EH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
44
XVHIXOLQDFXWHSDLQVWDWHVWRDFFHOHUDWHWKHKHDOLQJSURFHVV2YHUWLPHKRZHYHU
DQWLFLSDWRU\DQ[LHW\UHODWHGWRDFWLYLW\PD\GHYHORSDQGDFWDVDFRQGLWLRQHGVWLPXOXV
&6IRUV\PSDWKHWLFDFWLYDWLRQFRQGLWLRQHGUHVSRQVH&5WKDWPD\EHPDLQWDLQHG
DIWHUWKHRULJLQDOXQFRQGLWLRQHGVWLPXOXV86HJLQMXU\DQGXQFRQGLWLRQHG
UHVSRQVH85SDLQDQGV\PSDWKHWLFDFWLYDWLRQKDYHVXEVLGHG
6LQFHPDQ\DFWLYLWLHVWKDWDUHQRUPDOO\SOHDVXUDEOHRUQHXWUDOPD\HOLFLWRU
H[DFHUEDWHSDLQLQWKHDFXWHSKDVHWKHVHDFWLYLWLHVDUHH[SHULHQFHGDVDYHUVLYHDQG
DUHFRQVHTXHQWO\DYRLGHG2YHUWLPHWKHQXPEHURIDFWLYLWLHVVHHQWRHOLFLWRUWR
H[DFHUEDWHSDLQLQFUHDVHVVRWKDWPRUHDQGPRUHDFWLYLWLHVZLOOEHDYRLGHGVWLPXOXV
JHQHUDOL]DWLRQ)HDURISDLQPD\EHFRPHFRQGLWLRQHGWRDQH[SDQGLQJQXPEHURI
VLWXDWLRQVLQFOXGLQJVLPSOHPRWRUEHKDYLRUVDVZHOODVZRUNOHLVXUHDQGVH[XDO
DFWLYLW\,QDGGLWLRQWRDYRLGDQFHOHDUQLQJSDLQPD\EHH[DFHUEDWHGDQGPDLQWDLQHG
GXHWRWKHDQ[LHW\UHODWHGV\PSDWKLFDFWLYDWLRQDQGPXVFOHWHQVLRQWKDWPD\RFFXULQ
DQWLFLSDWLRQRISDLQDQGDOVRDVDFRQVHTXHQFHRISDLQ)ORU%LUEDXPHU7XUN
7KLVLVDQH[DPSOHLQZKLFKWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVPD\GLUHFWO\DIIHFW
QRFLFHSWLYHVWLPXODWLRQDQGQHHGQRWEHYLHZHGDVPHUHO\UHDFWLRQVWRSDLQ
5DFKPDQDQG$UQW]GHVFULEHGWKHSHUVLVWHQWDYRLGDQFHRIVSHFLILFDFWLYLWLHVRQ
KDQGIURPRYHUDQGXQGHUSUHGLFWLRQVRISDLQ7KHSUHGLFWLRQRISDLQSURPRWHVSDLQ
DYRLGDQFHEHKDYLRUDQGRYHUSUHGLFWLRQVRISDLQSURPRWHH[FHVVLYHDYRLGDQFH
EHKDYLRU:KHQWKHUHVXOWRISDLQDYRLGDQFHLVVXFFHVVIXOLHQRSDLQWKHQWKH
RYHUSUHGLFWLRQVUHPDLQXQFKHFNHGDQGWKHSURFHVVFRQWLQXHVXQFKDQJHG,Q
FRQVWUDVWE\UHSHDWHGO\HQJDJLQJLQEHKDYLRUWKDWSURGXFHVVLJQLILFDQWO\OHVVSDLQ
WKDQZDVSUHGLFWHGDGMXVWPHQWVLQVXEVHTXHQWSUHGLFWLRQVIROORZV7KXVWKH
SUHGLFWLRQVEHFRPHPRUHDFFXUDWH7KHVHLQFUHDVLQJO\DFFXUDWHSUHGLFWLRQVZLOOEH
IROORZHGE\LQFUHDVLQJO\DSSURSULDWHDYRLGDQFHEHKDYLRU:KHQDSSURSULDWHDOO
DYRLGDQFHPD\EHHOLPLQDWHG7KHVHREVHUYDWLRQVHPSKDVL]HWKHLPSRUWDQFHRI
SK\VLFDOWKHUDS\WRKHOSSDWLHQWVSURJUHVVLYHO\LQFUHDVHWKHLUDFWLYLW\OHYHOVDQG
PXVFOHPDVVGHVSLWHIHDURILQMXU\DQGGLVFRPIRUWDVVRFLDWHGZLWKUHQHZHGXVHRI
GHFRQGLWLRQHGPXVFOHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
45
)URPWKHFRQGLWLRQLQJSHUVSHFWLYHWKHSDWLHQWPD\KDYHOHDUQHGWRDVVRFLDWH
LQFUHDVHVLQSDLQZLWKDOONLQGVRIVWLPXOLWKDWZHUHRULJLQDOO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWK
QRFLFHSWLYHVWLPXODWLRQVWLPXOXVJHQHUDOL]DWLRQ6LWWLQJZDONLQJHQJDJLQJLQVRFLDO
LQWHUDFWLRQVH[XDODFWLYLW\RUHYHQWKRXJKWVDERXWWKHVHDFWLYLWLHVPD\LQFUHDVH
DQWLFLSDWRU\DQ[LHW\DQGFRQFRPLWDQWSK\VLRORJLFDODQGELRFKHPLFDOFKDQJHV
6XEVHTXHQWO\SDWLHQWVPD\GLVSOD\PDODGDSWLYHUHVSRQVHVWRPDQ\VWLPXOLDQG
UHGXFHWKHIUHTXHQF\RISHUIRUPDQFHRIPDQ\DFWLYLWLHVRWKHUWKDQWKRVHWKDWLQLWLDOO\
LQGXFHGSDLQWKHSK\VLFDODEQRUPDOLWLHVRIWHQREVHUYHGE\FKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV
HJGLVWRUWHGJDLQGHFUHDVHGUDQJHRIPRWLRQHWFPD\DFWXDOO\EHVHFRQGDU\
FKDQJHVLQLWLDWHGLQEHKDYLRUWKURXJKOHDUQLQJ$VWKHSDLQV\PSWRPVSHUVLVWPRUH
DQGPRUHVLWXDWLRQVPD\HOLFLWDQ[LHW\DQGDQWLFLSDWRU\SDLQDQGGHSUHVVLRQEHFDXVH
RIWKHORZUDWHRIUHLQIRUFHPHQWREWDLQHGZKHQEHKDYLRULVJUHDWO\UHGXFHG,Q
FKURQLFSDLQWKHDQWLFLSDWLRQRIVXIIHULQJRUSUHYHQWLRQRIVXIIHULQJPD\EHVXIILFLHQW
IRUWKHORQJWHUPPDLQWHQDQFHRIDYRLGDQFHEHKDYLRUV7XUN)ORU
6RFLDOOHDUQLQJPHFKDQLVPV%DVHGRQ%DQGXUD¶VFRQFHSWRIVRFLDOOHDUQLQJ
WKHDFTXLVLWLRQRISDLQEHKDYLRUVPD\RFFXUE\PHDQVRIREVHUYDWLRQDOOHDUQLQJDQG
PRGHOLQJSURFHVVHV7KDWLVLQGLYLGXDOVFDQDFTXLUHUHVSRQVHVWKDWZHUHQRW
SUHYLRXVO\LQWKHLUEHKDYLRUDOUHSHUWRLUHE\REVHUYLQJRWKHUVSHUIRUPLQJWKHVH
DFWLYLWLHV)URPWKLVSHUVSHFWLYHLWLVEHOLHYHGWKDWFKLOGUHQDFTXLUHDWWLWXGHVDERXW
KHDOWKDQGKHDOWKFDUHWKHSHUFHSWLRQDQGLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIV\PSWRPVDQG
DSSURSULDWHUHVSRQVHVWRLQMXU\DQGGLVHDVHIURPWKHLUSDUHQWVDQGVRFLDO
HQYLURQPHQW'HSHQGHQWXSRQWKHLUOHDUQLQJH[SHULHQFHWKHQWKH\ZLOOWHQGWRHLWKHU
PLQLPL]HRURYHUUHDFWWRV\PSWRPV'XHWRWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHVRFLDO
HQYLURQPHQWGLIIHUHQWUHVSRQVHVWRSDLQKDYHEHHQGRFXPHQWHGDFURVVGLIIHUHQW
FXOWXUHV7D\ORU7KHREVHUYDWLRQRIRWKHUVLQSDLQLVDQHYHQWWKDWFDSWLYDWHV
DWWHQWLRQ7KLVDWWHQWLRQPD\KDYHVXUYLYDOYDOXHPD\KHOSDQLQGLYLGXDOWRDYRLG
H[SHULHQFLQJPRUHSDLQDQGWROHDUQZKDWWRGRDERXWDFXWHSDLQ
([SHFWDQFLHVDQGDFWXDOEHKDYLRUDOUHVSRQVHVWRQRFLFHSWLYHVWLPXODWLRQDUHEDVHG
DWOHDVWSDUWLDOO\RQSULRUOHDUQLQJKLVWRU\7KHPHFKDQLVPVEHKLQGVRFLDOOHDUQLQJ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
46
PD\FRQWULEXWHWRWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHPDUNHGYDULDELOLW\LQUHVSRQVHWR
REMHFWLYHO\VLPLODUGHJUHHVRISK\VLFDOSDWKRORJ\IRXQGLQFOLQLFDOVHWWLQJV
6XPPDU\DQGFULWLTXH$FFRUGLQJWR)RUG\FHLWZDVLPSRUWDQWWRSD\
DWWHQWLRQWRWKHREVHUYDEOHVLJQVRISDLQDQGVXIIHULQJLHSDLQEHKDYLRUHVSHFLDOO\
LQSDLQWKHUDS\+HDVVXPHGWKDWORQJDIWHUDQLQMXU\KDGKHDOHGSDLQEHKDYLRU
FRXOGSHUVLVWGXHWRWKHOHDUQLQJSURFHVVHVWKDWKDGWDNHQSODFHDWWKHWLPHRILQMXU\
$FFRUGLQJWR)RUG\FHWKHEHVWZD\WRWUHDWFKURQLFSDLQLVWKHV\VWHPDWLF
H[WLQFWLRQRISDLQEHKDYLRUVDQGWKHUHLQIRUFHPHQWRIKHDOWK\EHKDYLRUVLH
EHKDYLRUWKDWLVLQFRPSDWLEOHZLWKSDLQEHKDYLRU7KLVWKHRUHWLFDOPRGHOKDGDODUJH
HIIHFWRQSDLQWKHUDS\DWWKHWLPHDQGUHIOHFWHGDULVHLQWKHSRSXODULW\RIEHKDYLRUDO
PRGLILFDWLRQLQWKHVDQGWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIEHKDYLRUDOPHGLFLQHDV
LQGHSHQGHQWUHVHDUFKILHOG
%HKDYLRUDOPHGLFLQHLVGHILQHGDVDQLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\ILHOGEHFDXVHLWDGGUHVVHVWKH
LQWHJUDWLRQRIEHKDYLRUDODQGELRPHGLFDOVFLHQFHVLQWKHUHVHDUFKRIGLVHDVHDQG
KHDOWKDQGWKHWUHDWPHQWRIGLVHDVH%HKDYLRUDOPHGLFLQHOHGWRDQLQFUHDVHLQ
EHKDYLRUDOUHVHDUFKZLWKGLVHDVHVWKDWZHUHSUHYLRXVO\FRQVLGHUHGWREHFDXVHG
SXUHO\E\RUJDQLFGLVRUGHUV0RUHWKDQSDLQFOLQLFVPRVWRIWKHP
LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\RSHQHGLQWKH86$EHWZHHQDQG
$IIHFWLYH)DFWRUV
3DLQKDVEHHQGHILQHGGLIIHUHQWO\E\YDULRXVDXWKRUVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHLUSHUVSHFWLYH
3DLQFDQEHDQHPRWLRQDVHQVRU\SHUFHSWLRQRUDEHKDYLRU$FFRUGLQJWRWKH
,QWHUQDWLRQDO$VVRFLDWLRQIRUWKH6WXG\RI3DLQSDLQLVGHILQHGDV³DQXQSOHDVDQW
VHQVRU\DQGHPRWLRQDOH[SHULHQFHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDFWXDORUSRWHQWLDOWLVVXHGDPDJH
RUGHVFULEHGLQWHUPVRIVXFKGDPDJH´0HUVNH\S,QFRPSDULVRQWR
HDUOLHUGHILQLWLRQVWKLVGHILQLWLRQRISDLQDGGUHVVHVWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOFRPSRQHQWRI
WKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHLQVWHDGRIIRFXVVLQJRQWKHSXUHO\VHQVRU\SHUFHSWLRQ,Q
DGGLWLRQWKLVGHILQLWLRQVXJJHVWVWKDWDOWKRXJKWLVVXHGDPDJHFDQEHDQLPSRUWDQW
SDUWRIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHLWLVQRWQHFHVVDU\WRKDYHWLVVXHGDPDJHWRIHHOSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
47
)XUWKHUWKLVGHILQLWLRQYLHZVHPRWLRQVDVDQLQWHJUDOFRPSRQHQWRIWKHSDLQ
H[SHULHQFHDQGQRWMXVWDVDUHDFWLRQWRSDLQ
7KHDIIHFWLYHFRPSRQHQWVRISDLQLQFOXGHPDQ\GLIIHUHQWHPRWLRQVEXWWKH\DUH
SULPDULO\QHJDWLYHLQTXDOLW\&KURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVIUHTXHQWO\UHSRUWV\PSWRPVRI
GHSUHVVLRQDQ[LHW\DQGDQJHU
7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOLVVXHVDQGFRQWURYHUVLHVUHJDUGLQJWKHUROHRIQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQLQ
SDLQ7KHVHLQFOXGHWKHSUHYDOHQFHRIQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQLQSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLF
SDLQFDXVDOUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQSDLQDQGQHJDWLYHDIIHFWDQGPRGHOV
LQFRUSRUDWLQJQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQDQGSDLQ
3UHYDOHQFHRIQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQLQFKURQLFSDLQ'HSUHVVLRQKDVUHFHLYHGWKHPRVW
HPSLULFDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQ0HWKRGRORJLFDOSUREOHPVLQFOXGLQJGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKH
GHILQLWLRQRIGHSUHVVLRQSRSXODWLRQVVDPSOHGDQGPHDVXUHPHQWDFFRXQWIRUD
YDULDELOLW\LQSUHYDOHQFHZLWKHVWLPDWHVUDQJLQJIURP'HVSLWHWKLV
YDULDELOLW\LQWKHDEVROXWHSUHYDOHQFHRIGHSUHVVLRQWKHHVWLPDWHVKDYHDOPRVW
XQLYHUVDOO\LQGLFDWHGKLJKHUUDWHVRIGHSUHVVLRQLQSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFSDLQZKHQ
FRPSDUHGWRWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ5RELQVRQ5LOH\6LQFHGHSUHVVLRQ
HVWLPDWHVRIDUHW\SLFDOLQFOLQLFDOVHWWLQJVGHSUHVVLRQLVGHFLGHGO\D
VLJQLILFDQWLVVXH
$Q[LHW\WRRKDVUHFHLYHGFRQVLGHUDEOHDWWHQWLRQLQWKHOLWHUDWXUH5RELQVRQ5LOH\
DQGVXIIHUVIURPVLPLODUPHWKRGRORJLFDOSUREOHPVDVGHSUHVVLRQFIDERYH
,QDGGLWLRQWKHUDQJHRIGLDJQRVWLFFULWHULDHJ'LDJQRVWLFDQG6WDWLVWLFDO0DQXDORI
0HQWDO'LVRUGHUV'60,9$PHULFDQ3V\FKLDWULF$VVRFLDWLRQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI0HQWDODQG%HKDYLRUDO'LVRUGHUV,&':RUOG+HDOWK
2UJDQL]DWLRQIRUDQ[LHW\GLVRUGHUVLVPXFKEURDGHU1HYHUWKHOHVV$WNLQVRQ
6ODWHU3DWWHUVRQ*UDQWDQG*DUILQFRPSDUHGSDWLHQWVZLWKORZEDFNSDLQWR
DPDWFKHGVDPSOHRISDLQIUHHPHQDQGIRXQGWKDWWKHFKURQLFSDLQJURXSKDGD
VLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHUOLIHWLPHSUHYDOHQFHUDWHRIPDMRUDQ[LHW\GLVRUGHUYV
2WKHUVWXGLHVHJ*DVNLQ*UHHQH5RELQVRQ*HLVVHUIRXQGWKDWSDWLHQWV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
48
ZLWKDYDULHW\RIFKURQLFSDLQFRQGLWLRQVUHSRUWDQ[LHW\OHYHOVVLJQLILFDQWO\JUHDWHU
WKDQSXEOLVKHGQRUPVDQGWKDWDVLJQLILFDQWDPRXQWRIWKHYDULDQFHLQSDLQUHSRUWV
FDQEHH[SODLQHGE\DQ[LHW\,QFOLQLFDOSRSXODWLRQVDQ[LHW\DSSHDUVWRSOD\DQ
LPSRUWDQWUROH
5HFHQWDWWHQWLRQKDVEHHQJLYHQWRDDQ[LHW\UHODWHGFRQFHSWWHUPHG³IHDU
DYRLGDQFH´$FFRUGLQJWR:DGGHOODQGFROOHDJXHV:DGGHOO1HZWRQ+HQGHUVRQ
6RPHUYLOOH0DLQWKLVFRQVWUXFWLVEDVHGRQOHDUQLQJWKHRU\PRGHOVRIWKH
DFTXLVLWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFHRISDLQEHKDYLRUVFIDERYH7KHSDLQEHKDYLRULQ
SDUWLFXODULV³DYRLGDQFHRISDLQIXODFWLYLWLHV´7KLVDYRLGDQFHRIDFWLYLW\LVSRVWXODWHG
WRUHVXOWLQFKURQLFSDLQV\QGURPHVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\DF\FOHRIGHFUHDVHGDFWLYLW\
GHFRQGLWLRQLQJORVVRIVHOIHIILFDF\IHDUDQGQHJDWLYHDIIHFWOHDGLQJWRIXUWKHU
DYRLGDQFHRISDLQUHODWHGDFWLYLW\5RELQVRQ5LOH\7KHTXHVWLRQQDLUH
HYROYLQJIURPWKLVFRQVWUXFW3$663DLQ$Q[LHW\6\PSWRPV6FDOH0F&UDFNHQ*URVV
6RUJ(GPDQGVDGGUHVVHVWKHLVVXHVRIIHDUIXODSSUDLVDOVDQGFRJQLWLYH
EHKDYLRUDODQGSK\VLRORJLFDOFRPSRQHQWVRISDLQUHODWHGDQ[LHW\
$QJHULQFRPSDULVRQWRGHSUHVVLRQDQGDQ[LHW\KDVUHFHLYHGIDUOHVVDWWHQWLRQLQWKH
SDLQOLWHUDWXUH/LWWOHHYLGHQFHH[LVWVDVWRZKHWKHUWKHSUHYDOHQFHRIDQJHULVD
FOLQLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWIDFWRULQSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFSDLQ8QOLNHRWKHUQHJDWLYH
DIIHFWLYHVWDWHVDQJHUODFNVDVSHFLILFGLDJQRVLV6RPHGDWDFI*DVNLQHWDO
LQGLFDWHWKDWSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFSDLQUHSRUWOHYHOVRIDQJHUVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHUWKDQ
WKHSXEOLVKHGQRUPVRQWKH6WDWH7UDLW$QJHU([SUHVVLRQ,QYHQWRU\6SLHOEHUJHU
$OWKRXJKWKHVFRSHRIDQJHUDVDGLDJQRVWLFHQWLW\UHPDLQVXQFOHDUWKH
FRQVHTXHQFHVRIDQJHULQSDWLHQWVZLWKSDLQDSSHDUWREHVLJQLILFDQWDQGWR
FRQWULEXWHWRWUHDWPHQWREVWDFOHVDQGRWKHUQHJDWLYHDIIHFWLYHH[SHULHQFHV5RELQVRQ
5LOH\
0HDVXUHPHQWRIQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQLQSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFSDLQ6RPHFRQWURYHUV\
H[LVWVDVWRZKHWKHUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQLQSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLF
SDLQSRVHVPHWKRGRORJLFDOSUREOHPVGXHWRWKHRYHUODSZLWKVRPDWLFV\PSWRPV
6RPHUHVHDUFKHUV1RY\1HOVRQ)UDQFHV7XUNDUJXHWKDWSDWLHQWVZLWK
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
49
FKURQLFSDLQPD\KDYHDUWLILFLDOO\KLJKOHYHOVRIGHSUHVVLRQEHFDXVHRIWKHVRPDWLF
V\PSWRPVRIWKHSDLQFRQGLWLRQ*HLVVHU5RWK5RELQVRQH[DPLQHGWKLV
LVVXHZLWKWKH%HFN'HSUHVVLRQ,QYHQWRU\%','LVFULPLQDQWDQDO\VHVVKRZHGWKDW
WKH%',ZLWKDQGZLWKRXWVRPDWLFLWHPVFRXOGSUHGLFWFODVVLILFDWLRQRIGHSUHVVLRQ
WKURXJKVWUXFWXUHGLQWHUYLHZVRIWKH'60,97KHVHUHVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDWWKH
FRQFHUQVDERXWRYHUODSRIVRPDWLFV\PSWRPVLQGHSUHVVLRQDQGFKURQLFSDLQDUHQRW
HPSLULFDOO\IRXQGHG
7KHVDPHFRQFHUQVUDLVHGDERXWRYHUODSDQGWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIGHSUHVVLRQDSSO\WR
WKHDVVHVVPHQWRIDQ[LHW\WKRXJKWKHUHKDYHEHHQQRGLUHFWWHVWVRIWKHK\SRWKHVHV
WKDWFKURQLFSDLQV\PSWRPVDUWLILFLDOO\LQFUHDVHWKHGLDJQRVLVRIDQ[LHW\3UDFWLFDOO\
QRVWXGLHVKDYHDGGUHVVHGWKHLVVXHRIRYHUODSLQFKURQLFSDLQDQGDQJHU
,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHV\PSWRPRYHUODSLVVXHLQFKURQLFSDLQDQGQHJDWLYHDIIHFW
UHVHDUFKHUVKDYHTXHVWLRQHGZKHWKHUGHSUHVVLRQDQ[LHW\DQGDQJHUFRUUHODWH
VWURQJO\HQRXJKZLWKHDFKRWKHUWRUHSUHVHQWDKLJKHURUGHUIDFWRUWKDWKDVEHHQ
WHUPHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUH³SV\FKRORJLFDOGLVWUHVV´%URZQ5RELQVRQ5LOH\
*UHPLOOLRQ$QXPEHURIVWXGLHVKDYHHPSOR\HGPHDVXUHVRIPRUHWKDQRQH
W\SHRIQHJDWLYHDIIHFWLQYDULDEO\VKRZDFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHDIIHFWLYHPHDVXUHV
HJ%URZQHWDO*DVNLQHWDO5HJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVZLWKRWKHU
YDULDEOHVKDYHVKRZQWKDWERWKZLWKLQDQGDFURVVVWXGLHVVHSDUDWHYDULDQFHLV
DFFRXQWHGIRUE\HDFKRIWKHQHJDWLYHDIIHFWFRQVWUXFWVDOWKRXJKWKHYDULDQFH
DFFRXQWHGIRULVUDUHO\LPSUHVVLYHO\ODUJHIRUDQ\VLQJOHDIIHFWFRQVWUXFW7KH
H[SHULHQFHRIFKURQLFSDLQKDVIDUUHDFKLQJHIIHFWVLQFOXGLQJFRQFHUQVIRUKHDOWK
ORVVRIDYRFDWLRQDODQGYRFDWLRQDOLQYROYHPHQWILQDQFLDOVWUHVVRUVORVVRIUROH
LGHQWLW\DQGOHJDOFRPSOLFDWLRQVDOORIZKLFKFDQGLIIHUHQWLDOO\DIIHFWDQLQGLYLGXDO
DQGPDQLIHVWLWVHOILQYDU\LQJDPRXQWVRIGHSUHVVLRQDQ[LHW\DQGDQJHU1HJDWLYH
HPRWLRQOLNHSDLQLVPXOWLYDULDWHZLWKWKHH[SHFWDWLRQWKDWLWVFRPSRQHQWVDUHOLNHO\
WRLQWHUFRUUHODWH5RELQVRQ5LOH\7KHXWLOLW\RIDVVHVVLQJHDFKFRPSRQHQW
VHSDUDWHO\LQFRPSDULVRQWRDQDSSURDFKWKDWPHDVXUHVDJOREDOSV\FKRORJLFDO
GLVWUHVVFRQVWUXFWLVQRW\HWIXOO\XQGHUVWRRG5RELQVRQ5LOH\
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
50
1HJDWLYHHPRWLRQDVDSUHGLFWRURISDLQ$VPHQWLRQHGDERYHDQXPEHURIVWXGLHV
KDYHVKRZQDFRQFXUUHQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQDQGOHYHOVRISDLQLQ
FRUUHODWLRQDOGHVLJQV%URZQHWDO*DVNLQHWDO2WKHUVWXGLHVKDYH
VKRZQWKDWQHJDWLYHDIIHFWLVDVLJQLILFDQWQHJDWLYHSUHGLFWRUZLWKUHVSHFWWRVSLQH
VXUJHU\RXWFRPH+DVHQEULQJ0DULHQIHOG.XKOHQGDKO6R\ND
PXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\WUHDWPHQWIRUSDLQDQGFRQVHUYDWLYHWKHUDSLHV2WKHUVKDYH
VXJJHVWHGWKDWQHJDWLYHDIIHFWPD\PHGLDWHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSDLQ
LPSDLUPHQWDQGGLVDELOLW\%DQNV.HUQV)XUWKHUVWXGLHVKDYHVKRZQWKDW
IHDUDYRLGDQFHDORQHDFFRXQWHGIRUDFRUUHFWFODVVLILFDWLRQRIZKLFKDFXWHO\
LQMXUHGEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVZRXOGEHFRPHFKURQLFDWDPRQWKIROORZXS7R
VXPPDUL]HWKHVHVWXGLHVGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWWKHFRRFFXUUHQFHRIQHJDWLYHDIIHFW
ZKHWKHUFDXVDOO\OLQNHGWRLQMXU\VWDWXVRUDFRQVHTXHQFHRILQMXU\DUHSUHGLFWLYHRI
DQXPEHURINH\YDULDEOHVLQFOXGLQJWUHDWPHQWHIILFDF\5RELQVRQ5LOH\
&RJQLWLYH)DFWRUV
1RWRQO\GRSDWLHQWVZLWKSDLQWHQGWREHOLHYHWKDWWKH\KDYHOLPLWHGDELOLW\WRH[HUW
DQ\FRQWURORYHUWKHLUSDLQEXWSDLQSDWLHQWVRIWHQKDYHQHJDWLYHH[SHFWDWLRQVDERXW
WKHLURZQDELOLW\WRFRQWUROPRWRUVNLOOVZLWKRXWSDLQ7XUN)ORU7KHVH
QHJDWLYHDSSUDLVDOVRIWKHVLWXDWLRQDQGSHUVRQDOHIILFDF\PD\UHLQIRUFHWKH
H[SHULHQFHRIGHPRUDOL]DWLRQLQDFWLYLW\DQGRYHUUHDFWLRQWRQRFLFHSWLYHVWLPXODWLRQ
7KHVHFRJQLWLYHDSSUDLVDOVDQGH[SHFWDWLRQVDUHSRVWXODWHGWRKDYHDQHIIHFWRQ
EHKDYLRUWKDWOHDGVWRUHGXFHGDFWLYLW\DQGWKDWPD\FRQWULEXWHWRLQFUHDVHG
SV\FKRORJLFDOGLVWUHVVDQGSK\VLFDOGHFRQGLWLRQLQJ
5HHVRUDQG&UDLJVKRZHGWKDWWKHSULPDU\GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQFKURQLFSDLQ
SDWLHQWVZKRZHUHUHIHUUHGEHFDXVHRIWKHSUHVHQFHRIPDQ\³PHGLFDOO\LQFRQJUXHQW´
VLJQVDQGWKRVHZKRGLGQRWGLVSOD\WKHVHVLJQVZDVPDODGDSWLYHWKLQNLQJ
,QWHUHVWLQJO\WKHUHZHUHQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHVHJURXSVRQWKH
QXPEHURIVXUJHULHVFRPSHQVDWLRQOLWLJDWLRQVWDWXVRUHPSOR\PHQWVWDWXV7KHVH
PDODGDSWLYHFRJQLWLYHSURFHVVHVPD\DPSOLI\RUGLVWRUWWKHH[SHULHQFHRISDLQ
)XUWKHU7XUNDQG5XG\DUJXHWKDWWKHFRJQLWLYHDFWLYLW\RIFKURQLFSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
51
SDWLHQWVPD\FRQWULEXWHWRWKHH[DFHUEDWLRQDWWHQXDWLRQRUPDLQWHQDQFHRISDLQ
SDLQEHKDYLRUDIIHFWLYHGLVWUHVVDQGG\VIXQFWLRQDODGMXVWPHQWWRFKURQLFSDLQ
7KHLQMXU\WKDWPD\KDYHLQLWLDWHGWKHRULJLQDOUHSRUWRISDLQSOD\VDQLQFUHDVLQJO\
VPDOOHUUROHRYHUWLPHDOWKRXJKVHFRQGDU\SUREOHPVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKGHFRQGLWLRQLQJ
PD\H[DFHUEDWHDQGVHUYHWRPDLQWDLQWKHSUREOHP,QDFWLYLW\OHDGVWRLQFUHDVHG
IRFXVRQWKHSUHRFFXSDWLRQZLWKWKHERG\DQGSDLQDQGWKHVHFRJQLWLYHDWWHQWLRQDO
FKDQJHVLQFUHDVHWKHOLNHOLKRRGRIPLVLQWHUSUHWLQJV\PSWRPVRIRYHUHPSKDVL]LQJ
V\PSWRPVDQGRISHUFHLYLQJRQHVHOIDVGLVDEOHG7XUN)ORU5HGXFWLRQRI
DFWLYLW\IHDURIUHLQMXU\SDLQORVLQJRQH¶VMREDQGDQHQYLURQPHQWWKDWVXSSRUWVWKH
³SDLQSDWLHQWÚROHFDQDOOLPSHGHDOOHYLDWLRQRISDLQVXFFHVVIXOWUHDWPHQWDQG
UHGXFWLRQRIGLVDELOLW\
$FFRUGLQJWRFRJQLWLYHWKHRULHVDOOLQGLYLGXDOVUHVSRQGWRVLWXDWLRQVLQSDUWEDVHGRQ
WKHLUVXEMHFWLYHUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVFDOOHGVFKHPDWD,QFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVLQGLYLGXDOV
DOVRUHVSRQGWRLQMXU\EDVHGRQWKHLULGLRV\QFUDWLFVFKHPDWD:KHQFRQIURQWHGZLWK
QHZVWLPXOL±DQLQMXU\±WKHLQGLYLGXDOHQJDJHVLQZKDWLVWHUPHG³PHDQLQJ
DQDO\VLV´WKDWLVJXLGHGE\WKHVFKHPDWDWKDWEHVWILWVWKHDWWULEXWHVRIWKHVWLPXOL
&LRIIL,QFRPLQJVWLPXOLDUHLQWHUSUHWHGODEHOHGDQGDFWHGRQEDVHGRQWKH
SDWLHQWV¶VFKHPDWD
)XUWKHUEHOLHIVDERXWWKHPHDQLQJRISDLQDQGRQH¶VDELOLW\WRIXQFWLRQGHVSLWH
GLVFRPIRUWDUHLPSRUWDQWDVSHFWVRIWKHFRJQLWLYHVFKHPDWDDERXWSDLQ7KHVH
UHSUHVHQWDWLRQVDUHXVHGWRFRQVWUXFWFDXVDOFRYDULDWLRQDODQGFRQVHTXHQWLDO
LQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHSDLQV\PSWRPV7XUN)ORU)RUH[DPSOHDFRJQLWLYH
VFKHPDWDWKDWRQHKDVDYHU\VHULRXVGHELOLWDWLQJFRQGLWLRQDQGWKDWGLVDELOLW\LVD
QHFHVVDU\DVSHFWRISDLQWKDWDFWLYLW\FDXVHVIXUWKHUSDLQDQGWKDWSDLQLVDQ
DFFHSWDEOHH[FXVHIRUQHJOHFWLQJUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVWKHQWKHPRVWOLNHO\UHVSRQVHZLOO
EHPDODGDSWLYH7XUN)ORU$VGHVFULEHGDERYHWKURXJKVWLPXOXV
JHQHUDOL]DWLRQSDLQSDWLHQWVPD\LQFUHDVLQJO\DYRLGDFWLYLWLHVDQGDVDFRQVHTXHQFH
WKH\EHFRPHPRUHSK\VLFDOO\GHFRQGLWLRQHGDQGPRUHGLVDEOHG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
52
)DFWRUVWKDWPD\HIIHFWDQLQGLYLGXDO¶VDELOLW\WRFRSHZLWKSDLQLQFOXGHEHOLHIV
DSSUDLVDOVDQGH[SHFWDWLRQVDERXWSDLQWKHDELOLW\WRFRSHWKHVRFLDOVXSSRUW
V\VWHPWKHHPSOR\HUDQGWKHKHDOWKFDUHSURYLGHU7KHVHIDFWRUVDOVRLQIOXHQFH
SDWLHQWV¶LQYHVWPHQWLQWUHDWPHQWDQGDFFHSWDQFHRIUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRUWUHDWPHQW
RXWFRPH
7RFRQFOXGHLQWHUUHODWHGVHWVRIFRJQLWLYHYDULDEOHVLQFOXGLQJWKRXJKWVDERXWWKH
FRQWUROODELOLW\RISDLQDWWULEXWLRQVDERXWRQH¶VRZQDELOLW\WRXVHVSHFLILFFRSLQJ
UHVSRQVHVH[SHFWDWLRQVFRQFHUQLQJWKHSRVVLEOHRXWFRPHVRIYDULRXVFRSLQJHIIRUWV
DQGFRPPRQHUURQHRXVEHOLHIVDERXWSDLQDQGGLVDELOLW\LQIOXHQFHWKHH[SHULHQFHRI
SDLQ7XUN)ORU
6XPPDU\%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO0RGHORI3DLQ
+LVWRULFDOO\WKHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOEHJDQZLWK0HO]DFNDQG:DOO¶V
SURSRVHG*DWH&RQWURO0RGHO)RUWKHILUVWWLPHSDLQZDVVHHQDVPRUHWKDQD
VLPSOHDODUPPHVVDJHDUULYLQJDWWKHFHUHEUDOFRUWH[OLNHDUDGLRVLJQDOH[FLWLQJD
EHHSHU0HO]DFNDQGKLVFROOHDJXHVVSHFXODWHGDERXWWKHQDWXUHDQGORFDWLRQRI
KLJKHURUGHUSURFHVVHVLQWKHEUDLQ7RUHYLHZWKH\K\SRWKHVL]HGWKDWWKH
QHRVSLQRWKDODPLFSURMHFWLRQV\VWHPPHGLDWHVSDLQVHQVDWLRQZKHUHDVUHWLFXODUDQG
OLPELFVWUXFWXUHVGHWHUPLQHWKHPRWLYDWLRQDQGQHJDWLYHHIIHFWQHFHVVDU\WRLQLWLDWH
DFWLRQ8QVSHFLILHGQHRFRUWLFDOSURFHVVHVPDWFKLQSXWZLWKSULRUH[SHULHQFHDQGZLWK
WKHQHRVSLQRWKDODPLFUHWLFXODUDQGOLPELFV\VWHPV&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV
7KLVHODERUDWLRQUHSUHVHQWHGDQGHQFRXUDJHGDJURZLQJRSHQQHVVIRU
GLVFXVVLRQRIWKHEUDLQ¶VLQIOXHQFHRQWKHERG\
7KHFXUUHQWELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHORIFKURQLFSDLQLQYROYHVWKUHHPDMRUIDFWRUV
LQWHJUDWHGDFWLRQUHFLSURFDOGHWHUPLQLVPDQGHYROXWLRQ7XUN
$FFRUGLQJWR7XUNLQWHJUDWHGDFWLRQHPSKDVL]HVWKDWFKURQLFSDLQGRHVQRW
RFFXULQDYDFXXPWKDWLVELRORJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOHOHPHQWVDUH
LQWHJUDWHGWRFRORUWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFH)RUH[DPSOHDPDOHSDWLHQW¶VVLWHRILQMXU\
ORZHUEDFNHPRWLRQDOVWDWHDQJHUIRUKDYLQJWRZRUNRYHUWLPHDQGWKHPDQQHU
LQZKLFKKHH[SUHVVHVKLVSDLQWRRWKHUVEDVHGRQVRFLDODQGFXOWXUDOEHOLHIVPHQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
53
GRQ¶WFU\DOODIIHFWKRZKHZLOOJLYHPHDQLQJWRKLVSDLQ7KHVHFRQGIDFWRU
UHFLSURFDOGHWHUPLQLVPSURSRVHVWKDWELRORJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOIDFWRUVFDQ
LQIOXHQFHHDFKRWKHU7RH[SDQGRQWKHH[DPSOHDERYHWKHSK\VLRORJLFDOFKDQJHV
VWHPPLQJIURPSDLQLQFUHDVHGV\PSDWKHWLFDURXVDOFDQDIIHFWHPRWLRQDODVSHFWVRI
WKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHLQFUHDVHGDQJHUDQGWKHVHFRQVHTXHQWO\LQIOXHQFHKLV
UHVSRQVHWRWKHHQYLURQPHQWKRVWLOLW\WRZDUGVIDPLO\PHPEHUVZKLFKFDQIXUWKHU
DOWHUKLVSK\VLRORJLFDOVWDWH)LQDOO\WKHFRQFHSWRIHYROXWLRQVWDWHVWKDWWKHSDWLHQW¶V
SDLQH[SHULHQFHLVQRWDVWDWLFFRQGLWLRQLQVWHDGLWLVFRQVWDQWO\FKDQJLQJWRDGDSWWR
WKHQHZELRORJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOFLUFXPVWDQFHV$QLPSRUWDQWDVSHFWRI
WKLVPRGHOLVWKDWZKHQZHREVHUYHIRUH[DPSOHDPDQLQSDLQDWDQ\JLYHQSRLQW
ZHDUHUHFHLYLQJRQO\DVQDSVKRWRIKLVH[SHULHQFH+LVFRQGLWLRQZLOOPRVWOLNHO\
FKDQJHDIWHUKHKDVKDGVRPHUHOLHIIURPWKHSDLQWKURXJKDQDOJHVLFPHGLFDWLRQ
DIWHUKHUHFHLYHVFRPIRUWIURPKLVIDPLO\DQGDIWHUKHKDVWDONHGWRKLVVXSHUYLVRUV
)URPZKDWZHXQGHUVWDQGWRGD\WKHELRORJLFDOIDFWRUVDUHPRVWLPSRUWDQWLQ
LQLWLDWLQJFRQWLQXLQJDQGPRGXODWLQJSDLQLQWKHDFXWHVWDJHV3V\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUV
VHHPWRSOD\DUROHLQVKDSLQJWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIUHVXOWLQJ
SK\VLRORJLFDOFXHVDQGGHWHUPLQLQJFRQVHTXHQWEHKDYLRU3V\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUV
LQFOXGHEHOLHIVDERXWFDXVHRIRQVHWDVZHOODVDVHQVHRIFRKHUHQFH$QWRQRYVN\
%RWKRIWKHVHIDFWRUVZLOOEHDGGUHVVHGLQGHWDLOEHORZ7KHVRFLDODQGFXOWXUDO
FRQWH[WIXUWKHULQIOXHQFHKRZDQLQGLYLGXDODFWVEDVHGRQPHPRULHVDQGSULRU
OHDUQLQJ)RUH[DPSOH5LFKDUGVKRZHGWKDWFKLOGUHQRIFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV
YLVLWWKHVFKRROQXUVHPRUHRIWHQDQGFRPSODLQPRUHIUHTXHQWO\WKDQFKLOGUHQRI
KHDOWK\LQGLYLGXDOV
7KHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOKDVVSDZQHGUHVHDUFKLQPDQ\GLIIHUHQWDUHDV&XUUHQWO\
LQUHVHDUFKDQGLQWKHFOLQLFDOVHWWLQJDWWHQWLRQKDVEHHQWXUQHGWRZDUGWKHFRJQLWLYH
DVSHFWVRIEHKDYLRUFKDQJH0RVWPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\SDLQFOLQLFVLQFOXGHFRJQLWLYH
EHKDYLRUDOWHFKQLTXHVVXFKDVUHIUDPLQJRIFHUWDLQSDLQIXOVWLPXOLLQWRPRUHEHQLJQ
VHQVRU\LQIRUPDWLRQUDWKHUWKDQLQWHUSUHWLQJWKHVWLPXOLDVVLJQDOVRISURJUHVVLQJ
GLVHDVHDQGLGHQWLI\LQJFKDOOHQJLQJDQGDOWHULQJDXWRPDWLFWKRXJKWVDERXWSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
54
HJP\SDLQZLOOSUHYHQWPHIURPHQMR\LQJP\OLIH7KHVHWHFKQLTXHVLOOXVWUDWHWKH
SRZHURIDOWHULQJEHOLHIVLQRUGHUWRVXVWDLQEHKDYLRUDOFKDQJHRYHUWLPH
7KHJRDOVRIFRJQLWLYHEHKDYLRUDOWUHDWPHQWIRUFKURQLFSDLQDUHWRGHYHORSDQG
EROVWHUSDWLHQWV¶EHOLHIVWKDWWKH\FDQIXQFWLRQDGDSWLYHO\LQHYHU\GD\OLIHDQGPDQDJH
SDLQDQGWRWHDFKSDWLHQWVVNLOOVIRUHIIHFWLYHO\KDQGOLQJIXWXUHSDLQUHODWHG
FKDOOHQJHV%UDGOH\2IWHQSDWLHQWVEHOLHYHWKDWWKHLUDELOLW\WRHQMR\OLIHLV
GHVWUR\HGE\SDLQWKH\PD\WKLQNWKDWWKH\PD\QHYHUHQMR\WKHLUKREE\DJDLQRU
WKDWWKH\KDYHORVWWKHLUDELOLW\WRSHUIRUPHYHU\GD\WDVNV)HZSDWLHQWVKRZHYHU
UHDOL]HWKDWWKHLUWKRXJKWVHPRWLRQVDQGEHKDYLRUVFRQVWDQWO\LQIOXHQFHWKHSDLQ
H[SHULHQFH%\LQFUHDVLQJWKHLUDZDUHQHVVRIDQGLQFUHDVLQJWKHLUDELOLW\WRLQIOXHQFH
ERWKSRVLWLYHO\DQGQHJDWLYHO\WKHLUSDLQWKURXJKWKLQNLQJDQGEHKDYLRUSDWLHQWV
FDQIHHOPRUHLQFRQWURORYHUWKHLUOLYHVDQGWKH\PD\EHEHWWHUDEOHWRVHH
DOWHUQDWLYHVRWKHUWKDQEHFRPLQJLQFUHDVLQJO\GLVDEOHG
6XPPDU\DQGFULWLTXH7KHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOIRFXVHVRQWKHG\QDPLFLQWHUSOD\
EHWZHHQWKHELRORJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOGLPHQVLRQVWKDWVHHPWRSHUSHWXDWH
FKURQLFSDLQ7XUN:KHUHDVELRORJLFDOIDFWRUVDUHEHOLHYHGWRLQLWLDWHD
SK\VLFDOGLVWXUEDQFHSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVDSSHDUWRLQIOXHQFHSDLQSHUFHSWLRQDQG
H[SHULHQFHDQGVRFLDOIDFWRUVPHGLDWHWKHEHKDYLRUH[KLELWHGE\WKHSDWLHQWLQ
UHVSRQVHWRWKHSDLQ6WUHVVFDQLQGHHGLQIOXHQFHKRUPRQDOOHYHOVDQGLPPXQH
IXQFWLRQE\ZD\RIELRORJLFDOSDWKZD\V$QGHUVHQ.LHFROW*ODVHU*ODVHU
)ORU7XUN%LUEDXPHU7XUNFRQWULEXWLQJWRFKURQLFLOOQHVVDVZHOODV
WRHPRWLRQDOGLVWUHVV$VDUHVXOWWKHSDWLHQWPD\KDYHGHFUHDVHGPRWLYDWLRQWR
SDUWLFLSDWHLQH[HUFLVHRUZRUNEHKDYLRUWKDWZRXOGSUHYHQWDWURSK\RIDQLQMXUHG
DUHD*DWFKHO7KHVXEVHTXHQWGHFUHDVHLQSK\VLFDOFDSDFLW\PD\WKHQSRVHD
WKUHDWWRWKHHPRWLRQDOZHOOEHLQJRIDQLQGLYLGXDODQGPD\OHDGWRIXUWKHU
SV\FKRORJLFDOGLVWUHVV7D\ORU7KHV\PSWRPVPD\DFTXLUHWKHVLJQLILFDQFHRI
GHPRQVWUDWLQJDVHQVHRIKHOSOHVVQHVVZLWKWKHLQWHQWRIVHFXULQJDVVLVWDQFHRU
UHOHDVHIURPUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVIURPDQH[WHUQDOVRXUFHLHDPSOLILFDWLRQRISK\VLFDO
DQGRUHPRWLRQDOV\PSWRPVDVDUHVXOWRIVHFRQGDU\JDLQLVVXHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
55
$QLPSRUWDQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHODQGWKHELRPHGLFDO
PRGHOLVWKDWWKHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOGRHVQRWWU\WRFXUHWKHSDLQ7KHSXUVXLWRI
DFXUHKDVOHIWPDQ\SDWLHQWVDQGSK\VLFLDQVIUXVWUDWHGDQGGLVDSSRLQWHG,QVWHDG
WKHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOIRFXVHVRQHQDEOLQJSDWLHQWVWRFRSHPRUHHIIHFWLYHO\ZLWK
WKHLUSDLQDQGLPSURYHGDLO\IXQFWLRQLQJ7KLVFRXOGPHDQWKDWSDWLHQWVDUHIUHTXHQWO\
FRQIURQWHGZLWKSDLQDVWKH\PDLQWDLQWKHLUSUHSDLQDFWLYLW\OHYHOLQVWHDGRIOHWWLQJ
SDLQEHFRPHWKHGHWHUPLQLQJIDFWRUZKLFKFRXOGOHDGWRLQFUHDVHGLQDFWLYLW\LQDQ
DWWHPSWWRDYRLGSDLQ$OWKRXJKWKHVHFRJQLWLYHEHKDYLRUDOWUHDWPHQWVKDYHSURYLGHG
UHOLHIIRUVRPHSDWLHQWVWKH\KDYHIDLOHGWRKDYHDXQLYHUVDOSRVLWLYHHIIHFW7KLV
LPSOLHVWKDWWKHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOLQWHUYHQWLRQVFDQDQGPXVWEHRSWLPL]HGLQRUGHUWR
KHOSPRUHSDWLHQWVEHWWHUFRSHZLWKWKHLUSDLQ$QRWKHUFULWLTXHUHJDUGLQJWKH
ELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOLVWKDWLWGHDOVLQJHQHUDOLWLHVDQGRIIHUVQRH[SODQDWLRQRIKRZ
SV\FKRVRFLDOIDFWRUVDIIHFWWKHEUDLQDQGWKHERG\%HFDXVHFXUUHQWXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI
SV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOLQIOXHQFHVLVEDVHGSULPDULO\RQRYHUWEHKDYLRUVLWLV
SRVVLEOHRQO\WRPDNHDVVXPSWLRQVDERXWWKHPHQWDOSURFHVVHVWKDWHYRNHWKHVH
EHKDYLRUV)XUWKHUVRPHUHVHDUFKHUVLQWKLVILHOGFODLPWKDWQRVROLGWKHRUHWLFDOEDVLV
H[LVWVWRH[SODLQWKHPHFKDQLVPVEHKLQGFKURQLFSDLQ$OWKRXJKSV\FKRORJLVWVKDYH
EURNHQIUHHRIWKHELRPHGLFDOPRGHOWKH\KDYHIDLOHGWRSURYLGHDEHWWHUWKHRU\
&KDSPDQ1DNDPXUD)ORUHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
56
&2025%,',7,(6
3HUVRQDOLW\)DFWRUV
3DLQDQGSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVSRVHDFRPSOH[ILHOGIRUUHVHDUFKHUVDQGFOLQLFLDQVDOLNH
3DWLHQWVZLWKQHXURWLFWHQGHQFLHVPD\ZRUU\DERXWPLQRUSDLQIXOSK\VLFDOFRPSODLQWV
ORQJDIWHUWKHWLVVXHSDWKRORJ\KDVKHDOHG3DWLHQWVZLWKUHFXUULQJRUORQJVWDQGLQJ
GHSUHVVLRQPD\VHHPKRSHOHVVDQGKHOSOHVVZKHQLVFRPHVWRWDNLQJDQDFWLYHSDUW
LQWKHLURZQWUHDWPHQW3DWLHQWVZLWKSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVHJERUGHUOLQHPD\
GHPDQGLPPHGLDWHDWWHQWLRQRUPD\VXGGHQO\EUHDNRIIDOOFOLQLFDOFRQWDFWV7RGHDO
ZLWKVXFKFKDOOHQJHVSK\VLFLDQVDQGUHVHDUFKHUVKDYHGHYHORSHGDQGUHILQHGD
QXPEHURIDSSURDFKHVWREHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGDQGDVVHVVSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVLQFKURQLF
SDLQ
7KHFRQFHSWXDOEDFNJURXQGIRUWKHDVVHVVPHQWRISHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVDQGFKURQLF
SDLQFDQEHGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHPDLQJURXSV3V\FKRG\QDPLFWKHRULHVWUDLW
WKHRULHVDQGELRSV\FKRVRFLDOWKHRULHV3V\FKRG\QDPLFWKHRULHVPDLQWDLQWKDW
GHHSURRWHGXQUHVROYHGSHUVRQDOLW\FRQIOLFWVFDQHLWKHUVHUYHDVWKHEDVLVIRU
SHUVLVWHQWSDLQRUFRPSOLFDWHWKHPDQDJHPHQWRIFKURQLFSDLQ)UHXGZDVRQHRIWKH
ILUVWWRUHFRJQL]HWKHFRQQHFWLRQEHWZHHQSDLQDQGXQGHUO\LQJHPRWLRQDOFRQIOLFWV
$FFRUGLQJWRKLVWKHRULHVSHUVLVWHQWSDLQLVYLHZHGDVDQHPRWLRQDOUHVSRQVHWRDQ
DFWXDOORVVRULQMXU\%HFDXVHKHYLHZHGSHUFHLYHGORVVDVFULWLFDOWRWKHGHYHORSPHQW
RISHUVLVWHQWSDLQ)UHXGVDZSDUDOOHOVEHWZHHQFKURQLFSDLQDQGPRXUQLQJ$Q
LPSRUWDQWFRPSRQHQWRI)UHXG¶VPRGHORISDLQZDVKLVFRQFHSWRI³FRQYHUVLRQ´WKDW
LVWKHLGHDWKDWHPRWLRQDOSDLQFDQEHH[SUHVVHGWKURXJKSK\VLFDOPHFKDQLVPV
)XUWKHU)UHXGSRVWXODWHGWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVZLWKSHUVRQDOLW\DWWULEXWHVWKDWGLGQRW
DOORZIRUWKHH[SUHVVLRQRIHPRWLRQDOSDLQWKURXJKHPRWLRQDOV\PSWRPVDUHOLNHO\WR
³FRQYHUW´WKHLUHPRWLRQDOSDLQWRVRPDWLFSDLQV\PSWRPV7KHVSHFLILFSDLQ
V\PSWRPVWKDWZRXOGRFFXULQVXFKFDVHVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGWREHV\PEROLFRIWKH
XQGHUO\LQJHPRWLRQDOLVVXHV:HLVEHUJ.HHIH
$QKLVWRULFDOO\LPSRUWDQWDUWLFOH³3V\FKRJHQLF3DLQDQGWKH3DLQSURQH3DWLHQW´
(QJHOIXUWKHUGLVFXVVHGWKHYDULRXVPHDQLQJVRISHUVLVWHQWSDLQ(QJHO
DUJXHGWKDWDOWKRXJKSDLQPD\KDYHDSK\VLFDOEDVLVWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶V
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
57
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKDWSDLQLVDSV\FKRORJLFDOSKHQRPHQRQ$FFRUGLQJWR(QJHO
SDLQPD\VHUYHVHYHUDOLPSRUWDQWIXQFWLRQV2QHSDLQPD\SURYLGHDPHDQV
RIDEVROYLQJRQHRIJXLOW\IHHOLQJVE\WXUQLQJWKHVXIIHULQJLQZDUG6HFRQGDIRFXV
RQSDLQPD\HQDEOHDQLQGLYLGXDOWRGLVSODFHDWWHQWLRQIURPDJJUHVVLYHIHHOLQJVWKDW
VKHRUKHLVXQDEOHWRH[SUHVVGLUHFWO\)LQDOO\SHUVLVWHQWSDLQPD\EHUHODWHGWRD
OLIHORQJKLVWRU\RIVXIIHULQJDQGGHIHDW(QJHODOVRIRXQGUHODWLRQVKLSV
EHWZHHQSHUVLVWHQWSDLQDQGSV\FKLDWULFGLDJQRVHVOLNHK\VWHULDGHSUHVVLRQDQG
K\SRFKRQGULD7RGD\(QJHO¶VSHUVSHFWLYHVDUHLPSRUWDQWIRUWZRUHDVRQV
)LUVWWKH\XQGHUVFRUHGWKHQRWLRQWKDWSDLQLVDFRPSOH[SKHQRPHQRQ6HFRQGWKH\
PDLQWDLQHGWKDWSV\FKRG\QDPLFIRUPXODWLRQVDUHLPSRUWDQWQRWRQO\LQXQGHUVWDQGLQJ
SDLQGXHWRK\VWHULDRUSV\FKLDWULFGLVRUGHUVEXWDOVRLQXQGHUVWDQGLQJKRZSHRSOH
DGMXVWWRSDLQGXHWRLQMXULHVRUGLVHDVH:HLVEHUJ.HHIH
7UDLWWKHRULHV$FFRUGLQJWRWUDLWWKHRULVWVORQJVWDQGLQJSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVRU
GLVSRVLWLRQVFDQKDYHDVWURQJLQIOXHQFHRQKRZDQLQGLYLGXDOUHVSRQGVWRWKHRQVHW
SHUVLVWHQFHDQGWUHDWPHQWRISDLQ,QWKHV6WHUQEDFKEHJDQWR
TXHVWLRQZKHWKHUIRUH[DPSOHQHXURWLFLVPSUHGLVSRVHGLQGLYLGXDOVWRFKURQLFSDLQ
RUWKHUHYHUVH3HUVLVWHQWSDLQLVDQDPELJXRXVSKHQRPHQRQWKDWKDVQRREYLRXV
PHDQLQJDQGGRHVQRWVHUYHDSURWHFWLYHIXQFWLRQ6WHUQEDFKDUJXHGWKDWLQ
UHVSRQVHWRVXFKDQDPELJXRXVVLWXDWLRQWKHPHDQLQJWKDWDSHUVRQDVFULEHVWRKHU
RUKLVSDLQFRXOGEHYHU\LPSRUWDQWVLQFHLWUHIOHFWVWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VSHUVRQDOLW\DQG
SDVWH[SHULHQFHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOV7KHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOPDLQWDLQVWKDWSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWV
DQGGLVSRVLWLRQVLQWHUDFWZLWKELRORJLFDOIDFWRUVWRGHWHUPLQHKRZRQHUHVSRQGVWR
SDLQ)RUH[DPSOHDQLQGLYLGXDO¶VEDFN³JRHVRXW´7KHELRORJLFDOHYHQWPD\LQLWLDWH
DQGPDLQWDLQDSV\FKRORJLFDOUHDFWLRQVXFKDVDQJHURUIUXVWUDWLRQ7KH
SV\FKRORJLFDOUHVSRQVHPD\LQWXUQEHDIIHFWHGE\WKHSHUVRQ¶VVRFLDOHQYLURQPHQW
7KDWLVIDPLO\DQGIULHQGVPD\EHRYHUO\VROLFLWRXVDQGSURYLGHH[FHVVLYHDWWHQWLRQ
RUV\PSDWK\WRWKHUHSRUWHGSDLQ7KHVHVRFLDOUHVSRQVHVPD\OHDGWKHLQGLYLGXDOWR
DYRLGJHWWLQJXSRUWDNLQJRQSUHYLRXVUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVZKLFKFDQUHVXOWLQPXVFOH
ZHDNQHVVDQGGHFRQGLWLRQLQJ±ELRORJLFDOIDFWRUVWKDWFDQSHUSHWXDWHWKHEDFNSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
58
:KHQYLHZHGIURPWKLVSHUVSHFWLYHDVLQJOHHYHQWDEDFN³JRHVRXW´FDQ
SUHFLSLWDWHDFDVFDGHRIELRORJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOUHVSRQVHVWKDWFDQ
LQWHUDFWWRH[DFHUEDWHDQGPDLQWDLQSDLQ7KLVPRGHOLVHVSHFLDOO\UHOHYDQWWR
XQGHUVWDQGLQJFKURQLFSDLQ
$QRWKHUPRGHOZKLFKKDVEHHQDSSOLHGWRWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRISDLQLVWKHGLDWKHVLV
VWUHVVPRGHO$FFRUGLQJWRWKLVPRGHOLOOQHVVGHYHORSVDVDQLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQDQ
XQGHUO\LQJELRORJLFDORUJHQHWLFVXEVWUDWHGLDWKHVLVDQGWKHH[SUHVVLRQRIWKDW
VXEVWUDWHXQGHUFHUWDLQFRQGLWLRQVVWUHVV7KLVPRGHOKDVEHHQVXFFHVVIXOO\DSSOLHG
WRPHGLFDOLOOQHVVHVVXFKDVGLDEHWHVXOFHUDWLYHGLVHDVHDQGKHDUWGLVHDVHDVZHOO
DVWRSV\FKLDWULFFRQGLWLRQVWKDWLQFOXGHGHSUHVVLRQVXEVWDQFHDEXVHDQG
VFKL]RSKUHQLD:HLVEHUJ.HHIH)XUWKHUWKHGLDWKHVLVVWUHVVPRGHOKDV
EHHQSURSRVHGDVDQH[SODQDWLRQIRUZK\VRPHLQGLYLGXDOVGHYHORSFKURQLFSDLQ
GLVRUGHUVZKLOHRWKHUVGRQRW)ORU7XUN$FFRUGLQJWRWKHGLDWKHVLVVWUHVV
PRGHOFKURQLFSDLQGLVRUGHUVDUHDIXQFWLRQRIWKHLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQWKH
LQGLYLGXDO¶VSUHPRUELGELRORJLFDODQGSV\FKRORJLFDOSUHGLVSRVLWLRQVGLDWKHVLVDQGWKH
FKDOOHQJHVRUVWUHVVRUVVWUHVVWKDWWKHLQGLYLGXDOIDFHVDVWKHUHVXOWRISDLQ7KH
GLDWKHVLVLQFOXGHVWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VSHUVRQDOLW\VWUHQJWKVDQGYXOQHUDELOLWLHVDQGWKH
VWUHVVLQFOXGHVWKHELRFKHPLFDODQGQRFLFHSWLYHFKDQJHVWKDWRFFXUDWRQVHWRIWKH
SDLQGLVRUGHU)ORU7XUN%LUEDXPHUDUJXHGWKDWSRRUFRSLQJUHVRXUFHVIRU
PDQDJLQJVWUHVVIXOVLWXDWLRQVFRXSOHGZLWKGHSUHVVHGPRRGSODFHLQGLYLGXDOVDWULVN
IRUGHYHORSLQJH[FHVVLYHPXVFOHWHQVLRQUHVSRQVHVWRSDLQ,QIDFWVWXGLHVZLWKORZ
EDFNSDWLHQWVKDYHVKRZQWKDWRQO\WKRVHLQGLYLGXDOVZKRDUHGHSUHVVHGZRUULHG
DQGHPRWLRQDOO\DIIHFWHGE\WKHLUSDLQDUHOLNHO\WRVKRZKLJKOHYHOVRIORZEDFN
PXVFOHWHQVLRQLQUHVSRQVHWRVWUHVV)ORU7XUN%LUEDXPHU
(PSLULFDOVWXGLHVH[DPLQLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUVRQDOLW\DQGFKURQLFSDLQ
7KHERG\RIUHVHDUFKH[DPLQLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUVRQDOLW\DQGFKURQLF
SDLQFDQEHGLYLGHGLQWRWZREDVLFFDWHJRULHVVWXGLHVWKDWH[DPLQHSHUVRQDOLW\
WUDLWVDQGVWXGLHVWKDWH[DPLQHSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
59
3HUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVDQGFKURQLFSDLQ1XPHURXVVWXGLHVKDYHH[DPLQHGSHUVRQDOLW\
WUDLWVLQSDWLHQWVZKRKDYHFKURQLFSDLQ7KLVIROORZLQJVHFWLRQUHYLHZVWKH
LQVWUXPHQWVXVHGWKHGHVFULSWLYHVWXGLHVLGHQWLI\LQJFRPPRQSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVDQG
SUHGLFWLYHVWXGLHVH[DPLQLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSRISHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVWRWUHDWPHQW
RXWFRPHDQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFKURQLFSDLQ
,QVWUXPHQWV2YHUWKHODVWILYHGHFDGHVSV\FKRORJLVWVKDYHGHYHORSHGDQXPEHURI
VWDQGDUGL]HGSV\FKRORJLFDOWHVWLQVWUXPHQWVIRUDVVHVVLQJSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWV7KHEDVLF
IHDWXUHVRIWKHVHLQVWUXPHQWVDUHWKDWWKH\DUHVHOIDGPLQLVWHUHGSDSHUDQGSHQFLO
WHVWVZLWKVWDQGDUGL]HGVFRULQJEDVHGRQDQRUPDWLYHSRSXODWLRQ7KHVHWHVWVDUH
SV\FKRPHWULFDOO\VWURQJVKRZLQJJRRGHYLGHQFHRIUHOLDELOLW\DQGYDOLGLW\0XFKRI
WKHUHVHDUFKRQSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVLQFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVKDVXVHGWKHILUVWYHUVLRQV
RIWKH0LQQHVRWD0XOWLSKDVLF3HUVRQDOLW\,QYHQWRU\003,+DWKDZD\0F.LQOH\
:KHQVFRULQJWKH003,WKHLQWHUSUHWHUORRNVDWWKHSDWWHUQRIWKHWKUHH
YDOLGLW\VFDOHVDQGWKHWHQFOLQLFDOVFDOHVHJ+\SRFKRQGULDVLV+\VWHULD
'HSUHVVLRQ$QRWKHUVWDQGDUGL]HGWHVWWKDWKDVEHHQXVHGLQSHUVRQDOLW\DVVHVVPHQW
RISDLQSDWLHQWVLVWKH1(23,1HXURWLFLVP([WURYHUVLRQ2SHQQHVV3HUVRQDOLW\
,QYHQWRU\&RVWD0F&UDH,WLVDVHOIUHSRUWLQYHQWRU\GHYHORSHGWRDVVHVVD
YDULHW\RILQWHUSHUVRQDODQGLQWUDSV\FKLFIXQFWLRQVLQKHDOWK\LQGLYLGXDOV7KHILYH
GRPDLQVRISHUVRQDOLW\HJ1HXURWLFLVP([WURYHUVLRQ2SHQQHVV$JUHHDEOHQHVV
&RQVFLHQWLRXVQHVVZHUHHPSLULFDOO\GHULYHGWKURXJKIDFWRUDQDO\VHVDQG
GHPRQVWUDWHJRRGUHOLDELOLW\DQGYDOLGLW\DFURVVDYDULHW\RISRSXODWLRQV
'HVFULSWLYHVWXGLHV'HVFULSWLYHVWXGLHVWKDWKDYHDWWHPSWHGWRLGHQWLI\SHUVRQDOLW\
WUDLWVWKDWDUHFRPPRQLQSDWLHQWVKDYLQJFKURQLFSDLQKDYHXVHGWKH003,2QHRI
WKHILUVWVWXGLHVFRQGXFWHGE\+DQYLNIRXQGVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQ
ORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVZLWKSDLQRISK\VLFDORULJLQYHUVXVSDLQRISV\FKRORJLFDORULJLQ
RQWKHVFDOHVLPSXOVLYLW\3GDQ[LHW\3WRGGWKLQNLQJ6F+HWKHQGHYHORSHGD
/RZ%DFN3DLQ6FDOHWRGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQIXQFWLRQDODQGRUJDQLFSDLQ7KLVVFDOH
UHFHLYHGFRQVLGHUDEOHDWWHQWLRQVLQFHLWSXUSRUWHGWRSURYLGHDVLPSOHPHDQVRI
GLVFULPLQDWLQJIXQFWLRQDOIURPRUJDQLFSDLQDQGOHGWRLQFUHDVHGXVHRIWKH003,LQ
ORZEDFNSDLQDVVHVVPHQW+DQYLNDOVRGHVFULEHGWKH³FRQYHUVLRQ9´
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
60
SHUVRQDOLW\VWUXFWXUHLHHOHYDWHGVFRUHVRQ+\SRFKURQGULDVLV6FDOHDQG
+\VWHULD6FDOHZLWKORZHUVFRUHVRQ'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHIRUPD³9´SDWWHUQRQ
WKHILUVWWKUHHVFDOHVRIWKH003,6WHUQEDFKLQKLVFODVVLFWH[W3DLQ3DWLHQWV
7UDLWVDQG7UHDWPHQWVIRXQGIRXUFRPPRQSDWWHUQVRQWKH003,
+\SRFKRQGULDVLV+VDQG+\VWHULD+\UHIOHFWLQJH[FHVVLYHVRPDWLFFRQFHUQV
³UHDFWLYHGHSUHVVLYH´VKRZHOHYDWHGVFRUHVRQ+\SRFKRQGULDVLV+V+\VWHULD+\
DQG'HSUHVVLRQ'UHIOHFWVSDWLHQWVWKDWDUHRIWHQGHSUHVVHGDQGDQ[LRXVDQG
DFFRUGLQJWR6WHUQEDFKEHQHILWWKHPRVWIURPWUHDWPHQWFRQYHUVLRQ9
GHVFULEHGDERYH³3V\FKRSDWKLFGHYLDWHÚHIOHFWVSDWLHQWVZKRWHQGHGWREHDQJU\
DQGPDQLSXODWLYHDQGRIWHQDFWHGRXWXVLQJWKHLUSK\VLFDOV\PSWRPVWRJHWQHHGV
PHW$OWKRXJKVXEVHTXHQWVWXGLHVKDYHVKRZQPL[HGVXSSRUWRIWKHSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWV
GHVFULEHGDERYHWKHVHVWXGLHVSURYLGHGWKHIRXQGDWLRQIRUFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKDQG
WUHDWPHQW
0RUHUHFHQWUHVHDUFKXVHGWKH1(23,FI:DGH'RXJKHUW\+DUWDQG&RRN
WRGLIIHUHQWLDWHEHWZHHQWKHIRXUVXEJURXSVSUHYLRXVO\IRXQGE\6WHUQEDFK
KDYHGHWHUPLQHGWKDWRQO\1HXURWLFLVPFRXOGGLIIHUHQWLDWHDQ\RIWKH003,
VXEJURXSV,QJHQHUDO:DGHDQGFROOHDJXHVFRQFOXGHGWKDWFKURQLFSDLQ
SDWLHQWVDQGQRUPDOZHOODGMXVWHGDGXOWVVKRZVLPLODUUHVSRQVHVRQWKH1(23,
7KHUHLVQRFRQFOXVLYHHYLGHQFHWKDWFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVILWLQWRDQ\RQHSURILOHDV
SUHYLRXVO\EHOLHYHGDOWKRXJKVRPHWUDLWVPD\EHFRPPRQEHWZHHQLQGLYLGXDOV
3UHGLFWLYH6WXGLHV7KHVHVWXGLHVDWWHPSWWRSUHGLFWWKHRXWFRPHRIWUHDWPHQWVIRU
FKURQLFSDLQ7KHUHVHDUFKGHVLJQRIWKHVHVWXGLHVLQYROYHVDGPLQLVWHULQJD
SHUVRQDOLW\WHVWHJ003,SULRUWRWUHDWPHQWDQGWKHQIROORZLQJXSZLWKSDWLHQWV
DWDODWHUWLPHHJLPPHGLDWHO\DIWHUVXUJHU\RUPRQWKVODWHU2QHHDUO\VWXG\
:LOWVHDQG5RFFKLRWKDWXVHGWKH003,WRSUHGLFWWKHRXWFRPHRIORZEDFN
VXUJHU\IRXQGWKDWKLJKVFRUHVRQWKH+\SRFKURQGULDVLV+VDQG+\VWHULD+\VFDOHV
SUHGLFWHGSRRUHUVXUJHU\RXWFRPH:DULQJ:HLV]DQG%DLOH\IRXQGFRQWUDU\
UHVXOWVWKHLUUHVXOWVLQGLFDWHGWKDWWKH003,ZDVQRWXVHIXOLQSUHGLFWLQJVXUJLFDO
RXWFRPHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
61
0RVWUHFHQWUHVHDUFKKDVIRFXVHGRQWKHTXHVWLRQDVWRZKLFKFRPHVILUVWWKH
SHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVWKDWOHDGWRFKURQLFSDLQRUFKURQLFSDLQWKDWOHDGVWRFHUWDLQ
FKDQJHVLQSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWV'HVSLWHUHSHDWHGDWWHPSWVWRJDLQDEHWWHU
XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHWHPSRUDOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFKURQLFSDLQDQGSHUVRQDOLW\WKH
UHODWLRQVKLSUHPDLQVHQLJPDWLF%LJRVHWDOFRQGXFWHGDODUJHSUHGLFWLYHVWXG\
RIDFXWHEDFNSDLQLQDQLQGXVWU\VHWWLQJ%RHLQJDLUFUDIWPDQXIDFWXULQJSODQWRYHU
\HDUV'DWDDQDO\VHVUHYHDOHGWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVZKRVFRUHGKLJKRQWKH003,VFDOH
+\VWHULD+\ZHUHWZLFHDVOLNHO\WRGHYHORSEDFNSDLQWKDQSDUWLFLSDQWVVFRULQJORZ
RQWKH+\VWHULDVFDOH+RZHYHUWKHRYHUDOOHOHYDWLRQVRIWKHVFRUHVRQWKH003,
VFDOHVZHUHORZHUWKDQWKRVHIRXQGLQRWKHUVWXGLHVRIFKURQLFSDLQ2WKHULPSRUWDQW
SUHGLFWRUVRIWKHRQVHWRIEDFNSDLQIRXQGLQWKLVVWXG\LQFOXGHG+DQYLN¶V/RZ%DFN
3DLQVFDOHDQGMREGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ
+DQVHQ%LHULQJ6RUHQVRQDQG6FKUROODOVRFRQGXFWHGDSURVSHFWLYHVWXG\
7KH\JDYHWKH003,WRDFRKRUWRI'DQLVKPHQDQGZRPHQ1 RYHUD
\HDUSHULRG7KH003,ZDVJLYHQWRSDUWLFLSDQWVDWDJHDQGGXULQJDURXWLQH
KHDOWKH[DPLQDWLRQ3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHTXHVWLRQHGDERXWWKHSUHVHQFHRUDEVHQFHRI
EDFNSDLQRYHUD\HDULQWHUYDO5HVXOWVLQGLFDWHGWKDW003,VFDOHHOHYDWLRQVRQ
+\SRFKURQGULDVLV+V+\VWHULD+\'HSUHVVLRQ'DWDJHVDQGZHUH
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKORZEDFNSDLQGXULQJWKHIROORZLQJGHFDGH,QDGGLWLRQHOHYDWHG
003,VFRUHVDWDJHZHUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKEDFNSDLQGXULQJWKHSUHFHGLQJGHFDGH
IURPDJHV7KHVHUHVXOWVDUHLQWHUHVWLQJLQWKDWWKH\VXJJHVWDUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQFHUWDLQSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVDQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRISDLQFRPSODLQWV+RZHYHU
WKLVVWXG\GRHVQRWSURYLGHDGHILQLWLYHWHVWRIZKLFKIDFWRUFDPHILUVWEDFNSDLQRU
003,VFDOHHOHYDWLRQV
*DWFKHO3RODWLQDQG0D\HUFRPSDUHGWKHDELOLW\RIWKH003,WKH6WUXFWXUHG
&OLQLFDO,QWHUYLHZIRU'60,,,56&,'6SULW]HU:LOOLDPV*LEERQ)LUVWDQG
WKH6WUXFWXUHG&OLQLFDO,QWHUYLHZIRU'60,,,53HUVRQDOLW\'LVRUGHUV6&,',,6SLW]HU
HWDOWRSUHGLFWVXEVHTXHQWSDLQDQGGLVDELOLW\SDUWLFLSDQWVZHUH
UHFUXLWHGZLWKLQZHHNVRISDLQRQVHWDQGFRPSOHWHGDEDWWHU\RIWHVWVLQFOXGLQJ
003,6&,'6&,',,$WDRQH\HDUIROORZXSSDUWLFLSDQWV¶ZRUNVWDWXVZDV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
62
FODVVLILHGDVHLWKHU³ZRUNLQJLQVFKRRO´³QRWZRUNLQJGXHWRSDLQ´³QRWZRUNLQJ
XQUHODWHGWRSDLQ´'DWDDQDO\VHVUHYHDOHGWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWVZKRLQLWLDOO\VFRUHG
KLJKHURQ003,+\VWHULD+\VFDOHZHUHPXFKPRUHOLNHO\WREHGLVDEOHGIURPZRUN
WKDQVXEMHFWVVFRULQJORZRQWKLVVFDOH2WKHULPSRUWDQWSUHGLFWRUVZHUHJHQGHU
ILOLQJIRUZRUNHU¶VFRPSHQVDWLRQDQGLQLWLDOVFRUHVRQSDLQLQWHQVLW\5HJUHVVLRQ
DQDO\VHVUHYHDOHGWKDWWKH003,+\VWHULDVFDOHVFRUHVFRPELQHGZLWKJHQGHU
ZRUNHU¶VFRPSHQVDWLRQSDLQLQWHQVLW\FRUUHFWO\FODVVLILHGRXWFRPHVIRURYHURI
WKHSDWLHQWVWUHDWHG&RQWUDU\WRRWKHUVWXGLHV*DWFKHODQGFROOHDJXHVIRXQG
WKDWGHSUHVVLRQDQGVXEVWDQFHDEXVHZHUHQRWSUHGLFWLYHRIRXWFRPH)XUWKHU
*DWFKHODQGFROOHDJXHVDVVHUWWKDWWKHLUVWXG\VXSSRUWVWKHEHOLHIWKDWWKH
FKURQLFLW\RISDLQGLVDELOLW\UHVXOWVLQSDWKRORJ\UDWKHUWKDQSV\FKRSDWKRORJ\
UHVXOWLQJLQFKURQLFSDLQGLVDELOLW\
6XPPDU\DQGFULWLTXH3V\FKRORJLFDOWHVWVFDQSURYLGHDUHOLDEOHDQGVWDQGDUGL]HG
PHWKRGRIDVVHVVLQJSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVLQSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFSDLQ3DVWUHVHDUFK
KDVPRVWRIWHQXVHGWKH003,DQGGHVFULSWLYHVWXGLHVXVLQJLWKDYHLGHQWLILHGD
QXPEHURIFRPPRQSURILOHVLQGLYHUVHSRSXODWLRQVRISDWLHQWVH[SHULHQFLQJFKURQLF
SDLQ+RZHYHUWKHSUHGLFWLYHXWLOLW\RIWKH003,KDVEHHQTXHVWLRQHGIRUWZR
SULPDU\UHDVRQV)LUVWWKHUHVXOWVRISUHGLFWLYHVWXGLHVRISHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVLQFKURQLF
SDLQSDWLHQWVKDYHEHHQLQFRQVLVWHQW$OWKRXJKVRPHVWXGLHVIRXQGDUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQFHUWDLQSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVHJK\SRFKRQGULDVLVK\VWHULDDQGGHSUHVVLRQ
DQGWUHDWPHQWRXWFRPHRWKHUVWXGLHVKDYHQRWIRXQGHYLGHQFHIRUVXFK
UHODWLRQVKLSV6HFRQGVRPHUHVHDUFKHUVVXJJHVWDUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQKLJKVFRUHV
RQWKHVFDOHVPHDVXULQJK\SRFKRQGULDVLVDQGK\VWHULDDQGQHXURWLFLVP/RYH3HFN
3HUVRQDOLW\'LVRUGHUVDQG&KURQLF3DLQ
7KH'60,9OLVWVWZRFULWHULDWKDWPXVWEHVDWLVILHGLQRUGHUWRFODVVLI\SHUVRQDOLW\
WUDLWVVHYHUHHQRXJKWREHDGLVRUGHU)LUVWWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VLQWUDSV\FKLFDQG
LQWHUSHUVRQDOIXQFWLRQLQJPXVWEHVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKDWRIKLVRUKHU
VRFLHW\RUFXOWXUH6HFRQGWKHVHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVPXVWEHLQIOH[LEOHDQGSHUYDVLYH
:HLVEHUJ.HHIH3HUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVE\GHILQLWLRQGHYHORSGXULQJ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
63
FKLOGKRRGDQGEHFRPHDSSDUHQWLQDGROHVFHQFHRUHDUO\DGXOWKRRG$PHULFDQ
3V\FKLDWULF$VVRFLDWLRQ7KH\UHIOHFWORQJVWDQGLQJSDWWHUQVRIPDODGDSWLYH
EHKDYLRUVWKRXJKWVDQGHPRWLRQVZLWKV\PSWRPVVHYHUHHQRXJKWRLQWHUIHUHZLWK
WKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VGDLO\IXQFWLRQLQJ
'LDJQRVWLFPHWKRGVIRUDVVHVVLQJSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUV7UDGLWLRQDOO\GLDJQRVLVRI
SHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVZDVPDGHE\DPHQWDOKHDOWKSURIHVVLRQDOZKRFRQGXFWHGD
FOLQLFDOLQWHUYLHZZLWKWKHSDWLHQW%HFDXVHWKLVPHWKRGIDLOVWRVKRZVXIILFLHQW
LQWHUUDWHUUHOLDELOLW\VWUXFWXUHGDQGVHPLVWUXFWXUHGLQWHUYLHZVKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHG
WRDVVLVWLQWKHGLDJQRVLVRIERWKFOLQLFDOGLVRUGHUVDQGSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVLQ
SV\FKLDWULFUHVHDUFK&XUUHQWUHVHDUFKUHOLHVRQWKHDGYDQWDJHVRIWKHVHPLVWUXFWXUHG
LQWHUYLHZWKHDGYDQWDJHVDUHLQFUHDVHGLQWHUUDWHUUHOLDELOLW\DQGFRQVWUXFWYDOLGLW\
WKURXJKVWUXFWXUHGTXHVWLRQVLHWKHVWUXFWXUHGTXHVWLRQVKDYHEHHQGHPRQVWUDWHG
WRKDYHKLJKIDFWRUORDGLQJVRQVSHFLILF'60FULWHULD,QDGGLWLRQWKHFOLQLFLDQFDQDVN
IROORZXSTXHVWLRQVGHSHQGLQJRQWKHSDWLHQW¶VUHVSRQVHWRWKHVWUXFWXUHGTXHVWLRQ
7KHSULPDU\GLVDGYDQWDJHVRIWKHVHVHPLVWUXFWXUHGLQWHUYLHZVLVWKDWWKH\DUHWLPH
LQHIILFLHQWDQGSV\FKRORJLFDOO\LQYDVLYHLQWKDWWKH\LQTXLUHDERXWWKHHQWLUHUDQJHRI
FRJQLWLYHEHKDYLRUDOLQWHUSHUVRQDODQGLQWUDSV\FKLFIXQFWLRQ%ULHIHUOHVVLQYDVLYH
PHDVXUHVDUHFXUUHQWO\EHLQJGHYHORSHGDQGWKHLUXWLOLW\LVEHLQJWHVWHG:HLVEHUJ
.HHIH,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHVHPLVWUXFWXUHGLQWHUYLHZVPHQWLRQHGDERYHHJ
6&,'6&,',,WKH6HPLVWUXFWXUHG,QWHUYLHZIRU'60,93HUVRQDOLW\'LVRUGHUV
6,'3,93IRKO%OXP=LPPHUPDQDQGWKH3HUVRQDOLW\'LVRUGHU(YDOXDWLRQ
3'(/RUDQJHU/HKPDQQ6XVPDQ2OGKDP5XVVDNRIKDYHEHHQXVHGLQ
UHFHQWSV\FKLDWULFUHVHDUFK
'HVFULSWLYH6WXGLHV,WLVLPSRUWDQWWREHDULQPLQGWKDWWKHRYHUDOOEDVHUDWHVIRUDOO
RIWKHSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVDPRQJWKH86SRSXODWLRQDUHXQNQRZQEXWEHOLHYHGWR
EHUHODWLYHO\ORZLHIRUSDUDQRLGDQGDYRLGDQWSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUWR
IRUKLVWULRQLFDQGDQWLVRFLDOSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHU7KHILUVWODUJHVFDOHVWXG\RI
SHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVLQFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVZDVFRQGXFWHGDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI
0LDPL&RPSUHKHQVLYH3DLQDQG5HKDELOLWDWLRQ&HQWHU)LVKEDLQ*ROGEHUJ0HDJKHU
6WHHOH5RVRPRIIFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVZHUHLQWHUYLHZHGZLWKVHPL
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
64
VWUXFWXUHGLQWHUYLHZPHDVXUHVWKDW\LHOGHG'60,,,SHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUGLDJQRVHV
5HVXOWVLQGLFDWHGWKDWRIFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVPHWFULWHULDIRUDSHUVRQDOLW\
GLVRUGHUGLDJQRVLV'HSHQGHQWSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUZDVWKHPRVWIUHTXHQWGLVRUGHU
IROORZHGE\SDVVLYHDJJUHVVLYHDQGREVHVVLYHFRPSXOVLYH
SHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUV7KLVVWXG\ZDVLPSRUWDQWLQWKDWLWZDVWKHILUVWWRXVH
ULJRURXVRSHUDWLRQDOFULWHULDWRPDNH'60,,,$[LV,FOLQLFDOGLVRUGHUVDQG$[LV,,
SHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVGLDJQRVHVLQFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV:HLVEHUJ.HHIH
$QRWKHUUHVHDUFKWHDP3RODWLQ.LQQH\*DWFKHO/LOOR0D\HULQWHUYLHZHG
FKURQLFSDLQVXIIHUHUVDWWKHWLPHRIHQWU\LQWRDFRPSUHKHQVLYHSDLQDQG
UHKDELOLWDWLRQSURJUDP7KHPHDVXUHXVHGZDVWKH6WUXFWXUHG&OLQLFDO,QWHUYLHZIRU
'60,,,56&,'DQG6&,',,6SLW]HUHWDO7KLVLQVWUXPHQWHYDOXDWHGWKH
FXUUHQWDQGOLIHWLPHLQFLGHQFHRIERWK$[LV,FOLQLFDOGLVRUGHUVDQG$[LV,,
SHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVGLVRUGHUV5HVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWRIWKHFKURQLFSDLQ
SDWLHQWPHWFULWHULDIRUDWOHDVWRQHOLIHWLPH$[LV,GLDJQRVLVRIWKHSDWLHQWVPHW
WKHFULWHULDIRUDVRPDWRIRUPSDLQGLVRUGHUIROORZHGE\GHSUHVVLRQDVWKHPRVW
FRPPRQOLIHWLPHDQGFXUUHQW$[LV,GLDJQRVLV7KLVVWXG\DOVR
H[DPLQHGWKHLQFLGHQFHRI$[LV,GLVRUGHUVWKDWGHYHORSHGDIWHUWKHRQVHWRISDLQDQG
IRXQGWKDWDOORIWKHSDWLHQWVZLWKVRPDWRIRUPSDLQGLVRUGHUVDQGRIWKH
SDWLHQWVZLWKPDMRUGHSUHVVLRQGHYHORSHGWKHVHGLVRUGHUVDIWHUSDLQRQVHW'DWD
DQDO\VHVRI$[LV,,UHYHDOHGWKDWRISDWLHQWVPHWFULWHULDIRURQHSHUVRQDOLW\
GLVRUGHUDQGPHWFULWHULDIRUPRUHWKDQRQHSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHU3DUDQRLG
SHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUZDVWKHPRVWFRPPRQ$[LV,,GLDJQRVLVIROORZHGE\
ERUGHUOLQHDYRLGDQWDQGSDVVLYHDJJUHVVLYHSHUVRQDOLW\
GLVRUGHUV
3UHGLFWLYH6WXGLHV*DWFKHODQGKLVFROOHDJXHV*DWFKHO3RODWLQ0D\HU*DUFH\
H[DPLQHGWKHUROHRIFOLQLFDO$[LV,DQGSHUVRQDOLW\$[LV,,GLVRUGHUVE\
FRPSDULQJSUHWUHDWPHQW6&,'DQG6&,',,GLDJQRVHVRISDWLHQWVZKRUHWXUQHG
WRZRUNYHUVXVWKRVHZKRGLGQRWUHWXUQWRZRUNIROORZLQJDIXQFWLRQDOUHVWRUDWLRQ
SURJUDP5HVXOWVZHUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKRWKHUVWXGLHVFI)LVKEDLQHWDO3RODWLQ
HWDOLQWKDWRISDWLHQWVPHWFULWHULDIRU$[LV,,SHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHU7KH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
65
PRVWFRPPRQSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVIRXQGLQERWKWKRVHSDWLHQWVZKRUHWXUQHGWR
ZRUNDQGWKRVHWKDWGLGQRWUHWXUQWRZRUNZHUHSDUDQRLGSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHU
SDVVLYHDJJUHVVLYHSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUDQGERUGHUOLQHSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHU7KHUH
ZHUHQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHJURXSVRQDQ\RIWKHSHUVRQDOLW\
GLVRUGHUV0RUHLPSRUWDQWWKHUHZHUHQRVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHSUHYDOHQFHRI
HLWKHU$[LV,RU$[LV,,GLVRUGHUVEHWZHHQWKHSDWLHQWVZKRVXFFHVVIXOO\UHWXUQHGWR
ZRUNDQGWKRVHZKRGLGQRWUHWXUQWRZRUN7KHDXWKRUVLQWHUSUHWWKHVHUHVXOWVWR
PHDQWKDWLIWUHDWPHQWDGGUHVVHVERWKFOLQLFDOSV\FKLDWULFV\PSWRPVDQGSHUVRQDOLW\
LVVXHVSV\FKRSDWKRORJ\QHHGQRWLQWHUIHUHZLWKVXFFHVVIXOWUHDWPHQWRXWFRPH
FRQFOXGLQJUHWXUQLQJWRZRUN:HLVEHUJ.HHIH
6XPPDU\DQGFULWLTXH,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHSDLQSURQHSHUVRQDOLW\GLVFXVVHGDERYH
RWKHULQGLYLGXDOGLIIHUHQFHVPD\SURYHWREHLPSRUWDQW6SHFLILFDOO\FHUWDLQFKURQLF
SDLQSDWLHQWVKDYHSK\VLRORJLFDOVWHUHRW\SHUHVSRQVHVWRVWUHVVWKDWDJJUDYDWH
SDUWLFXODUJURXSVRIPXVFOHVH[DFHUEDWLQJWKHSDLQ)RUH[DPSOHSDWLHQWVVXIIHULQJ
IURPP\RIDVFLDOSDLQG\VIXQFWLRQV\QGURPHDVHWRIGLVRUGHUVLQZKLFKWKHFKURQLF
SDLQRULJLQDWHVZLWKLQWKHKHDGRUQHFNPXVFOHVVKRZLQFUHDVHGDFWLYLW\LQSDUWLFXODU
IDFLDOPXVFOHVLQUHVSRQVHWRVWUHVV*HUEHU+DVHQEULQJ7KHVHDQGRWKHU
ILQGLQJVVXJJHVWWKHLPSRUWDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQVWHUHRW\SLFERGLO\UHVSRQVHVDQG
VWUHVV3DLQPDQDJHPHQWIRFXVHVRQWHDFKLQJSDWLHQWVWRUHFRJQL]HVRXUFHVRIVWUHVV
DQGKHOSWKHPOHDUQWRFRSHZLWKLWLQPRUHSURGXFWLYHZD\V
%DVHGRQWKHUHYLHZRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHDGGUHVVLQJSDLQDQGSHUVRQDOLW\VHYHUDO
FRQFOXVLRQVFDQEHPDGH)LUVWWKHDVVHVVPHQWRISHUVRQDOLW\VHHPVWREHXVHIXOLQ
LGHQWLI\LQJSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVDQGSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVWKDWPD\SRWHQWLDOO\LQIOXHQFH
WKHFRXUVHDQGWUHDWPHQWRIFKURQLFSDLQ3DLQWUHDWPHQWSURJUDPVDUHOLNHO\WR
LPSURYHZKHQWKH\DGGUHVVLQGLYLGXDOSHUVRQDOLW\GLIIHUHQFHVLQWUHDWPHQWGHFLVLRQV
6HFRQGSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVRFFXUDWDKLJKHUUDWHLQWKHFKURQLFSDLQSRSXODWLRQ
WKDQLQWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ:HLVEHUJ.HHIH6WXGLHVKDYHVKRZQWKDW
FKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVKDYHSV\FKLDWULFFRPRUELGLWLHVWKDWLQFOXGHERWKFOLQLFDO
V\PSWRPVVXFKDVGHSUHVVLRQDQGDQ[LHW\DQGSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWV,WLVLPSRUWDQWWR
QRWHWKDWDFDXVDOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWVRUGLVRUGHUVDQGFKURQLF
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
66
SDLQKDV\HWWREHHVWDEOLVKHG5HVHDUFKHUVDQGFOLQLFLDQVKDYHSRVLWHGWKDWFHUWDLQ
SHUVRQDOLW\VW\OHVVXFKDVKLVWULRQLFGHSHQGHQWDQGGHSUHVVLYHWUDLWVSUHGLVSRVHDQ
LQGLYLGXDOWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFKURQLFSDLQ7KLVK\SRWKHVLVKDVEHHQPRUH
UHFHQWO\UHSODFHGZLWKWKHGLDWKHVLVVWUHVVPRGHO:HLVEHUJ.HHIHLQZKLFK
FHUWDLQWUDLWVWKDWDUHQRUPDOO\XQGHUFRQWURORIWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VGHIHQVLYHVWUXFWXUH
EHFRPHH[DFHUEDWHGXQGHUWKHVWUHVVRIDQDFXWHLQMXU\DQGWKDWZKHQSRRUO\
PDQDJHGUHVXOWLQDSHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHU)XUWKHUODUJHVFDOHSURVSHFWLYHVWXGLHVZLOO
EHDEOHWRIXUWKHURXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUVRQDOLW\WUDLWV
DQGGLVRUGHUVDQGFKURQLFSDLQ
1HJDWLYH(PRWLRQDQG&KURQLF3DLQ
$VGHVFULEHGDERYHFOLQLFDOVWXGLHVKDYHVKRZQWKDWFKURQLFSDLQDQGQHJDWLYH
HPRWLRQDUHIUHTXHQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFRPRUELGLW\GRFXPHQWHGWRDYDU\LQJGHJUHH
GHSHQGLQJRQWKHVSHFLILFSDLQFRQGLWLRQFOLQLFDOVDPSOHVWXGLHGDQGGLPHQVLRQRI
QHJDWLYHHPRWLRQPHDVXUHG7KHWHPSRUDOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSDLQDQGHPRWLRQ
UHPDLQVXQFOHDUVLQFHIHZORQJLWXGLQDOVWXGLHVKDYHDGGUHVVHGWKLVLVVXH
1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHQDWXUHRIWKHVHUHODWLRQVKLSVFDQJHQHUDOO\EHH[SUHVVHGLQIRXU
GLIIHUHQWVWDWHPHQWVQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQLQFUHDVHVVRPDWLFVHQVLWLYLW\QHJDWLYH
HPRWLRQFDXVHVVRPHSDLQQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQFDQUHVXOWIURPWKHH[SHULHQFHRI
FKURQLFSDLQSDLQDQGQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQDUHFRQFRPLWDQWFRQVWUXFWVEHFDXVHRI
VLPLODUELRORJLFDOIRXQGDWLRQV%DQNV.HUQV)LVKEDLQ&XWOHU5RVRPRII
5RVRPRII
1HJDWLYHHPRWLRQLQFUHDVHVVHQVLWLYLW\$VGHVFULEHGDERYHLQWKH*DWH&RQWURO
7KHRU\0HO]DFNDQG:DOOK\SRWKHVL]HGWKDWDQLQGLYLGXDO¶VSK\VLRORJLFDO
SHUFHSWLRQRISDLQLVPRGXODWHGE\KLVRUKHUHPRWLRQVDQGFRJQLWLRQZLWK
GHSUHVVLRQDQGSDLQPRGXODWHGE\DVLPLODUSURFHVVLQWKHSHULDTXHGXFWDOJUH\DUHD
RIWKHGRUVDOKRUQ6RPHPRRGLQGXFWLRQVWXGLHVKDYHVXSSRUWHGWKLVK\SRWKHVLVIRU
H[DPSOH6DORYH\%LUQEDXPIRXQGLQFUHDVHGUHSRUWLQJRIDFKHVDQGSDLQV
DQGGHFUHDVHGWROHUDQFHIRUH[SHULPHQWDOO\LQGXFHGSDLQ'HSUHVVHGSDWLHQWVDOVR
WHQGWRLQWHUSUHWHYHQWVQHJDWLYHO\DQGDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRLQWHUSUHWDJLYHQVHQVDWLRQ
DVSDLQIXO3HQQHEDNHU2WKHUUHVHDUFKHUVIRUH[DPSOH*HLVVHU*DVNLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
67
5RELQVRQ*UHHQHIDLOHGWRILQGDUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKH%',DQGSDLQ
WKUHVKROGRUSDLQWROHUDQFHLQSDWLHQWVZLWKDUWKULWLVDQGILEURP\DOJLDXVLQJDFROG
SUHVVRUSDUDGLJP
3DLQLVFDXVHGE\QHJDWLYHHPRWLRQV6RPHUHVHDUFKHUVKDYHDUJXHGWKDWFKURQLF
SDLQLVGXHWRDQXQGHUO\LQJGHSUHVVLYHGLVRUGHUSDUWLFXODUO\ZKHQDGHTXDWHSK\VLFDO
ILQGLQJVDUHDEVHQW%OXPHUDQG+HLOEURQQEDVHGRQDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQ
SDVWRUIDPLO\KLVWRU\RIGHSUHVVLYHGLVRUGHUSURSRVHGWKDWFKURQLFSDLQUHIOHFWVD
PDQLIHVWDWLRQRIDPXWHGGHSUHVVLYHVWDWH7KH\GHILQHGDSDLQSURQHGLVRUGHUWKDW
ZDVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVSHFLILFFOLQLFDOSV\FKRG\QDPLFDQGJHQHWLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
,WKDVEHHQVSHFXODWHGWKDWDQ[LHW\DQGWRDOHVVHUH[WHQWDQJHUPD\EH
UHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWDQGPDLQWHQDQFHRIPXVFRVNHOHWDOGLVRUGHUV)RU
H[DPSOH)ORUDQG7XUNSURSRVHWKDWLQFUHDVHGVRPDWLFUHDFWLYLW\VXFKDV
LQFUHDVHGVNHOHWDOPXVFOHWHQVLRQPD\OHDGWRSDLQ)XUWKHU%XUQV:LHJQHU'HUOHWK
.LVHOLFDDQG3DZOIRXQGWKDWDQJHULQGXFHGVWUHVVSURGXFHGLQFUHDVHG
PXVFOHWHQVLRQZKLFKSUHGLFWHGJUHDWHUSDLQLQWHQVLW\LQFKURQLFEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV
7KLVHIIHFWZDVVSHFLILFWRDQJHULQWKDWDPHDVXUHRIGHSUHVVLRQWKDWZDV
VLJQLILFDQWO\FRUUHODWHGZLWKSDLQZDVQRWDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLQFUHDVHGPXVFOHUHDFWLYLW\
1HJDWLYHDIIHFWRFFXUVDVDUHVXOWRIFKURQLFSDLQ7KLVVWDWHPHQWLPSOLHVWKDW
QHJDWLYHHPRWLRQLVDIUHTXHQWSV\FKRORJLFDOUHDFWLRQWRFKURQLFSDLQ7KLV
VXJJHVWLRQKDVLQWXLWLYHDSSHDOFRQVLGHULQJWKHSK\VLFDODQGVRFLDOOLPLWDWLRQVFKURQLF
SDLQSDWLHQWVH[SHULHQFH7KLVLPSOLHVWKHH[LVWHQFHRIXQLTXHFRJQLWLYHDQGRU
EHKDYLRUDOUHVSRQVHVWRSDLQWKDWKDYHDWHQGHQF\WRGHYHORSLQWRGHSUHVVLYH
V\PSWRPDWRORJ\5RELQVRQ5LOH\$QXPEHURIFRJQLWLYHUHVSRQVHVKDYH
EHHQLPSOLFDWHGLQWKHULVNIRUQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQLQFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVLQFOXGLQJ
DWWULEXWLRQDOVW\OHFDWDVWURSKL]LQJFRJQLWLRQQHJDWLYHVHOILPDJHDQGEHOLHIVDERXW
SDLQ5RELQVRQ5LOH\&RQVLVWHQWZLWKEHKDYLRUDOPRGHOVRIGHSUHVVLRQ
LQFUHDVHGSDLQDQGUHODWHGVRPDWLFV\PSWRPVUHGXFHWKHDELOLW\WRHQJDJHLQ
DFWLYLWLHVWKDWKDGEHHQVRXUFHVRISRVLWLYHUHLQIRUFHPHQWLQWKHSDVW,QDGGLWLRQ
WKHVHDFWLYLWLHVDUHQRZDFFRPSDQLHGE\SDLQDQGDUHWKHUHIRUHDYHUVLYH7KH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
68
FKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWWKHQUHGXFHVKLVRUKHUUDQJHRILQVWUXPHQWDODFWLYLWLHVIXUWKHU
EHFDXVHRISK\VLFDOLPSDLUPHQWRUIHDURISDLQRUIXUWKHULQMXU\
3DLQDQGQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQDUHFRQFRPLWDQW7KLVK\SRWKHVLVSRVLWVWKDWSDLQDQG
QHJDWLYHHPRWLRQRFFXUVLPXOWDQHRXVO\EHFDXVHRIVLPLODUELRORJLFDOPHFKDQLVPV
6HURWRQLQDQGQRUHSLQHSKULQHDUHEHOLHYHGWRSOD\DUROHLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI
GHSUHVVLRQDQGWKHPRGXODWLRQRISDLQ)UHTXHQWO\FLWHGHYLGHQFHIRUFRPPRQ
ELRORJLFDOPHFKDQLVPVLVWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVVXIIHULQJIURPHLWKHUSDLQRUGHSUHVVLRQ
UHVSRQGZHOOWRWKHDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIWULF\FOLFDQWLGHSUHVVDQWV)XUWKHUGHSUHVVHG
LQGLYLGXDOVDQGFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVIUHTXHQWO\VKDUHRWKHUSK\VLRORJLFDOPDUNHUV
VXFKDVUHGXFWLRQRI5(0VOHHSDQLQFUHDVHRISODVPDFRUWLVRODSDWKRORJLFDO
GH[DPHWKDVRQHWHVWDQGORZK\GUR[\LGROHDFHWLFDFLG+,$$OHYHOVLQWKH
FHUHEURVSLQDOIOXLG5RELQVRQ5LOH\
/RQJLWXGLQDOVWXGLHV/RQJLWXGLQDOVWXGLHVDOORZWHPSRUDODQGGLUHFWLRQDOLQIHUHQFHVWR
EHPDGHDERXWWKHQDWXUHRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQDQGSDLQ
$WNLQVRQDQGFROOHDJXHVVWXGLHGOLIHWLPHSUHYDOHQFHDQGSUHPRUELGULVNRI
SV\FKLDWULFGLVRUGHULQDVDPSOHRIPDOHFKURQLFORZEDFNSDWLHQWVDWWHQGLQJD
SULPDU\FDUHFOLQLFDWD9HWHUDQV$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ0HGLFDO&HQWHU86$3V\FKLDWULF
GLVRUGHUVZHUHDVVHVVHGXVLQJWKH1,0+'LDJQRVWLF,QWHUYLHZ6FKHGXOHD'60,,,
EDVHGVWUXFWXUHGLQWHUYLHZ7KH\IRXQGWKDWKDGH[SHULHQFHGDSUHYLRXVPDMRU
GHSUHVVLYHGLVRUGHUDQGKDGH[SHULHQFHGDPDMRUDQ[LHW\GLVRUGHU'DWHRI
RQVHWEHWZHHQWKHSV\FKLDWULFGLVRUGHUVDQGWKHFKURQLFSDLQZHUHWKHQFRPSDUHG
)RUPDMRUGHSUHVVLYHGLVRUGHUUHVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWH[SHULHQFHGRQVHWRI
GHSUHVVLRQEHIRUHWKHRQVHWRISDLQDIWHURQVHWRIFKURQLFSDLQ:LWKUHJDUGWR
PDMRUDQ[LHW\GLVRUGHUH[SHULHQFHGRQVHWRIDQ[LHW\EHIRUHWKHRQVHWRISDLQ
DQGDIWHURQVHWRISDLQ/LPLWDWLRQVRIWKHVWXG\DUHWKHUHWURVSHFWLYHQDWXUHRI
WKHGHVLJQDQGSRVVLEOHVDPSOHELDV$WNLQVRQDQGFROOHDJXHVFRQFOXGHWKDW
WKLVVWXG\VXSSRUWVWKHSRVLWRISRVWSDLQPRRGGLVRUGHUDOWKRXJKRWKHUILQGLQJV
VXJJHVWWKDWSV\FKLDWULFGLVRUGHUVSUHFHGHWKHRQVHWRIFKURQLFSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
69
/HLQRDQG0DJQLH[DPLQHGWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQGLVWUHVVDQG
PXVFRORVNHOHWDOV\PSWRPVORZEDFNSDLQQHFNVKRXOGHUSDLQLQ)LQQLVK
LQGXVWU\ZRUNHUVDWWKUHHGLIIHUHQWWLPHVDWILYH\HDULQWHUYDOV,QJHQHUDOWKH\IRXQG
WKDWHPRWLRQDOGLVWUHVVVFRUHVIURPDQHDUOLHUDVVHVVPHQWZHUHSRVLWLYHO\UHODWHGWR
VHOIUHSRUWRIPXVFXORVNHOHWDOV\PWSRPV'LVWUHVVZDVSUHGLFWLYHIRUPHQRQO\1RQH
RIWKHPXVFRVNHOHWDOV\PSWRPVZHUHSUHGLFWLYHRIODWHUGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPVZKHQ
WKHGLUHFWLRQRIWKHDQDO\VLVZDVUHYHUVHG$OLPLWDWLRQRIWKHVWXG\LVWKDWWKH
PHDVXUHRIHPRWLRQDOGLVWUHVVZDVQRWDFOLQLFDOPHDVXUHEXWDFRPSRVLWHRILWHPV
UHSUHVHQWLQJGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPV7KHVWUHQJWKVRIWKLVVWXG\DUHWKDWLWLV
SURVSHFWLYHLQQDWXUHDQGWKDWLVGRHVQRWVXIIHUIURPWKHLQKHUHQWVDPSOLQJELDVRI
FOLQLFDOSRSXODWLRQV
0DJQL0RUVFKL5LJDWWL/XFKLQLDQG0HUVNH\WHVWHGIRUDGLUHFWLRQDOHIIHFWRI
GHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPVRQPXVFRORVNHOHWDOSDLQDQGYLFHYHUVDXVLQJHSLGHPLRORJLFDO
GDWDIURPDJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQFROOHFWHGE\WKH861DWLRQDO&HQWHUIRU+HDOWK
6WDWLVWLFV&KURQLFSDLQZDVGHILQHGDVSDLQWKDWZDVH[SHULHQFHGIRUPRVWRIDGD\
IRUDWOHDVWRIWKHSDVWPRQWKV'HSUHVVLRQZDVDVVHVVHGXVLQJWKH&(6'
5HVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWLQJFKURQLFSDLQZHUHWLPHVPRUHOLNHO\
WRUHSRUWGHSUHVVLRQDWIROORZXS\HDUVODWHUZKHUHDVWKHULVNUDWLRIRUWKH
SUHGLFWLRQRIFKURQLFSDLQIURPGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPVZDVWLPHV7KHVHILQGLQJV
VXJJHVWWKDWWKHUHLVQRGHILQLWLYHDQWHFHGHQW7KHDXWKRUV0DJQLHWDO
VSHFXODWHWKDWGHSUHVVLRQPD\EHPRUHSUHGLFWLYHRIVRPHSDLQFRQGLWLRQVDQGWKDW
FHUWDLQSDLQFRQGLWLRQVPD\EHPRUHOLNHO\WRSUHGLFWGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPV$
OLPLWDWLRQRIWKLVVWXG\LQFOXGHWKHLQDELOLW\WRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUGHSUHVVLRQRUSDLQ
V\PSWRPVZHUHFRQWLQXRXVRULQWHUPLWWHQWRYHUWKHHLJKW\HDUGXUDWLRQRIWKHVWXG\
$QH[KDXVWLYHUHYLHZRIORQJLWXGLQDOVWXGLHVLVQRWSRVVLEOHKHUHQHYHUWKHOHVVUHVXOWV
VHHPWRLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHFDXVDOSDWKLVQRWXQLGLUHFWLRQDO5RELQVRQ5LOH\
3DLQSUHFHGHVQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQIRUVRPHLQGLYLGXDOVQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQSUHFHGHV
SDLQIRURWKHULQGLYLGXDOV7KHFRPSOH[QDWXUHRIWKHKXPDQH[SHULHQFHVXJJHVWV
WKDWWKHQDWXUHRISDLQDQGHPRWLRQDUHSUREDEO\QRWHQWLUHO\GLUHFWEXWDUHPHGLDWHG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
70
E\DQXPEHURIELRORJLFDODQGSV\FKRVRFLDOYDULDEOHV,QDGGLWLRQWKHVHPHGLDWRUV
DUHPRVWOLNHO\WREHELGLUHFWLRQDOLQQDWXUH
0HGLDWRUVEHWZHHQSDLQDQGQHJDWLYHPRRG*LYHQWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKH
UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSDLQDQGQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQDUHQRWHQWLUHO\GLUHFW5RELQVRQDQG
5LOH\H[DPLQHGWKHYDULDEOHVWKDWSURPRWHWKHLUFRPRUELGLW\,WLVDOVROLNHO\
WKDWWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHVHYDULDEOHVPD\GLIIHULQGHJUHHDFURVVGLPHQVLRQVRI
QHJDWLYHHPRWLRQGHSUHVVLRQDQ[LHW\DQGDQJHU7KHFRQVWUXFWVUHSHDWHGO\IRXQG
LQWKHFKURQLFSDLQOLWHUDWXUHWKDWDUHNQRZQWREHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKSDLQDQGHPRWLRQ
WKDWPD\DFFRXQWLQSDUWIRUWKHFRPRUELGLW\RISDLQDQGQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQZLOOEH
EULHIO\GHVFULEHGEHORZ
6RPDWL]DWLRQ6RPDWL]DWLRQLVGHILQHGDVWKHSUHGLVSRVLWLRQWRDPSOLI\SK\VLRORJLFDO
VHQVDWLRQVRUWKHPLVFODVVLILFDWLRQRIV\PSWRPVRIHPRWLRQDODURXVDO,WKDVEHHQ
SURSRVHGWKDWZLWKFKURQLFSDLQWKHUHPD\EHDVHQVLWL]LQJHIIHFWWRSK\VLRORJLFDO
HYHQWVWKDWKHLJKWHQVERGLO\DZDUHQHVV,WKDVEHHQSURSRVHGWKDWFKURQLFSDLQ
SDWLHQWVEOXUSDLQIXODQGQRQSDLQIXOH[SHULHQFHVDQGLQWHUSUHWDZLGHYDULHW\RI
H[SHULHQFHLQWHUPVRISDLQ5RELQVRQ5LOH\*HLVVHU*DVNLQ5RELQVRQ
*UHHQHIRXQGWKDWDPHDVXUHRIVRPDWLFIRFXVPHGLDWHGWKHUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQGHSUHVVLRQDQGWKHVHQVRU\FRPSRQHQWRIWKH0F*LOO3DLQ4XHVWLRQQDLUH
7KHVHUHVHDUFKHUVGLGQRWILQGWKLVUHODWLRQVKLSIRUWKHDIIHFWLYHRUHYDOXDWLYH
FRPSRQHQWVRISDLQ,QJHQHUDOWKHDXWKRUVFRQFOXGHWKDWVRPDWL]DWLRQLVUHODWHGWR
ERWKSDLQV\PSWRPVDQGGHSUHVVLYHFRPSODLQWV
&DWDVWURSKL]LQJ&DWDVWURSKL]LQJLVDFRJQLWLYHSURFHVVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\QHJDWLYH
H[SHFWDWLRQVDERXWIXWXUHRXWFRPHVDQGODFNRIFRQILGHQFH%HFN5HODWHGWR
FKURQLFSDLQFDWDVWURSKL]LQJLVWKRXJKWWREHDXQLTXHDVSHFWRISDLQUHODWHG
QHJDWLYHFRJQLWLRQDQGLVW\SLFDOO\PHDVXUHGZLWKWKH&RSLQJ6WUDWHJLHV
4XHVWLRQQDLUH5LOH\5RELQVRQ7KHUHKDVEHHQVRPHGHEDWHDVWRZKHWKHU
FDWDVWURSKL]LQJDQGGHSUHVVLRQDUHGLVWLQFWFRQVWUXFWVKRZHYHUFRJQLWLYHPRGHOVRI
GHSUHVVLRQYLHZQHJDWLYHFRJQLWLRQDVGLVWLQFWIURPEXWUHODWHGWRV\PSWRPVRI
GHSUHVVLRQ%HFN
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
71
6RFLDO,QWHUSHUVRQDO)DFWRUV7KHLQFUHDVHGULVNIRUWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIQHJDWLYH
HPRWLRQLQFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVPD\EHGXHLQSDUWWRWKHHIIHFWVRIDSDWLHQW¶V
VRFLDOLQWHUDFWLRQVDQGLQWHUSHUVRQDOUHODWLRQVKLSV7KHRFFXUUHQFHDQGVHYHULW\RI
GHSUHVVLRQWKDWRFFXUVLQSK\VLFDOGLVRUGHUVVXFKDVFKURQLFSDLQDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
ODFNRIVRFLDOVXSSRUWPDULWDOGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGFRQIOLFW5RELQVRQ5LOH\
7ULHI&DUQLNHDQG'UXGJHH[DPLQHGWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQIDPLO\
HQYLURQPHQWDQGGHSUHVVLRQLQORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV5HVXOWVVKRZHGWKDW
GHSUHVVLRQZDVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIVRFLDOVXSSRUWDQGWKHTXDOLW\RI
WKHIDPLO\HQYLURQPHQW7KHVHDXWKRUVFRQFOXGHWKDWORZVRFLDOVXSSRUWLVOLQNHGWR
DQGPD\EHDULVNIDFWRUIRUGHSUHVVLRQLQFKURQLFSDLQ7ULHIHWDO
6XPPDU\DQG&ULWLTXH,WDSSHDUVWKDWSDLQLVVWURQJO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKQHJDWLYH
HPRWLRQ7KHUHDUHOLWHUDOO\WKRXVDQGVRISXEOLVKHGDUWLFOHVRQWKHUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQFKURQLFSDLQDQGHPRWLRQ7KHUHLVHYLGHQFHWKDWQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQVFR
RFFXUZLWKSDLQFRQGLWLRQVDQGWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVZLWKFKURQLFSDLQKDYHRQDYHUDJH
JUHDWHUOHYHOVRIQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQV7KHUHLVQRFRQFOXVLYHGDWDDVWRFDXVDOLW\
'HVSLWHWKHODUJHERG\RIOLWHUDWXUHWKLVDUHDVKRZVVRPHZHDNQHVVHV)RUH[DPSOH
WKHGLPHQVLRQVRIQHJDWLYHHPRWLRQKDYHERWKVKDUHGDQGGLVWLQFWFRPSRQHQWV
'HSUHVVLRQDQGDQ[LHW\VKDUHDQHPRWLRQDOGLVWUHVVFRPSRQHQWEXWGLIIHURQ
SK\VLRORJLFDODURXVDO0RVWVWXGLHVFRQVLGHUGHSUHVVLRQRQO\DIHZKDYHFRQVLGHUHG
DQJHU)XUWKHUWKHUHLVDODFNRIWKHRU\GULYHQPRGHOVZLWKHPSLULFDOO\WHVWDEOH
IDOVLILDEOHUHODWLRQVKLSV7RFRQFOXGHVRPHUHVHDUFKHUV5RELQVRQ5LOH\
VXJJHVWWKHH[LVWHQFHRIUHODWLYHO\KRPRJHQHRXVVXEW\SHVRIFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV,W
LVSRVVLEOHWKDWSDWLHQWVFRXOGEHFKDUDFWHUL]HGLQWRVXEW\SHVEDVHGRQWKHLU
H[SHULHQFHVRIGHSUHVVLRQDQ[LHW\DQGDQJHU7KHH[LVWHQFHRIVXEW\SHVPD\
H[SODLQLQFRQVLVWHQFLHVLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHDQGODFNRIFORVXUHUHJDUGLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQSDLQDQGHPRWLRQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
72
$QDUHDWKDWKDVUHFHLYHGOLWWOHDWWHQWLRQLVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSDLQDQGRWKHU
SK\VLFDOGLVHDVHVRUFRPRUELGLWLHV$VGLVFXVVHGDERYHFRPRUELGLWLHVDUHW\SLFDOO\
GHVFULEHGDVSV\FKRSDWKRORJLFDOLQQDWXUHWKHSULPDU\IRFXVRIUHVHDUFKKDVEHHQ
WKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQGHSUHVVLRQDQGFKURQLFSDLQ7KHTXHVWLRQWREHDGGUHVVHG
LQWKLVVWXG\LVZKHWKHUFKURQLFSDLQLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKRWKHUGLVHDVHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
73
&$86$/$775,%87,216$%287',6($6(216(7
7KLVWKLUGVHFWLRQH[DPLQHVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOIDFWRUV
DQGGLVHDVHRQVHWIURPDOD\SHUVRQ¶VSHUVSHFWLYH7KLVILHOGRIUHVHDUFKH[DPLQHV
FRQVWUXFWVLQFOXGLQJFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQWKHRULHVDWWULEXWLRQWKHRULHVFRSLQJVWUDWHJLHV
DQGEHOLHIVDERXWLOOQHVVDQGVHOIEODPH7KHVHFRQVWUXFWVZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGEHORZ
EDVHGRQUHVHDUFKDGGUHVVLQJFKURQLFSDLQLQJHQHUDODQGEDFNSDLQDVZHOODV
FDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVHGXHWRWKHH[WHQVLYHUHVHDUFKDGGUHVVLQJWKHVHWZRPRVW
OLIHWKUHDWHQLQJGLVHDVHVLQWKH:HVWHUQZRUOG
6XEMHFWLYH7KHRULHV
6XEMHFWLYHWKHRULHVDUHGHILQHGDVDFRPSOH[DJJUHJDWHRIFRQFHSWVZKLFKSDUDOOHO
UHVHDUFKWKHRULHVLQVWUXFWXUHDQGIXQFWLRQ7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKHVXEMHFWLYHWKHRULHV
DUHLPSOLFLWO\ORJLFDOLQIRUP*URHEHQ)XUWKHU³VXEMHFWLYH´WKHRULHVDUH
LQIOXHQFHGE\³REMHFWLYH´LHUHVHDUFKWKHRULHVDQGYLFHYHUVD7KLVH[FKDQJHLV
DGYDQWDJHRXVIRUERWKW\SHVRIWKHRULHV
$WWULEXWLRQV
3DVWUHVHDUFKKDVEHHQGLUHFWHGWRZDUGVWKHLGHDVVLFNLQGLYLGXDOVKDYHDERXWRQVHW
RIWKHLUGLVHDVHV(PSLULFDOHYLGHQFHKDVVKRZQWKDWSDWLHQWVPDNHDWWULEXWLRQVDERXW
FDXVHVIRUWKHLULOOQHVV7XUQTXLVW+DUYH\DQG$QGHUVHQIRXQGWKDWPRVW
SDWLHQWVEHWZHHQDQGRIWKHSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHGFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRU
RQVHWRIGLVHDVH7KHVHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVKHOSVLFNLQGLYLGXDOVFRSHRQDQHPRWLRQDO
OHYHO9HUUHV$FFRUGLQJWR)LOLSSSDWLHQWVVXIIHULQJIURPDFKURQLF
GLVHDVHDUHQRWWKHRQO\RQHVZKRKDYHSDUWLFXODULGHDVDERXWRQVHWDQGWUHDWPHQW
RIGLVHDVHVKHDOWK\LQGLYLGXDOVDOVRKDYHWKHLUWKHRULHVDERXWKRZGLVHDVHVGHYHORS
DOEHLWGLIIHUHQWWKHRULHV
%DU2QLOOXVWUDWHGWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIERWKFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRULOOQHVVDQG
IHHOLQJVRIFRQWUROLQWKHUHFRYHU\RIP\RFDUGLDOLQIDUFWLRQSDWLHQWV3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUH
DVNHGZK\WKH\WKRXJKWWKH\KDGDKHDUWDWWDFNDQGZKDWKHDOWKPHDVXUHVWKH\
SODQQHGWRWDNHDVDUHVXOWRIWKHDWWDFN$IROORZXSVHYHUDOPRQWKVODWHUPHDVXUHG
WKHZRUNDQGVRFLDOIXQFWLRQLQJRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV%DU2QIRXQGWKDW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
74
SDWLHQWVZKRDWWULEXWHGWKHFDXVHRIWKHLUP\RFDUGLDOLQIDUFWLRQWRPRGLILDEOHIDFWRUV
XQGHUWKHLUSHUVRQDOFRQWUROVXFKDVVWUHVVRUVPRNLQJZHUHPRUHOLNHO\WRKDYH
LQLWLDWHGDFWLYHSODQVIRUWKHLUUHFRYHU\HJFKDQJLQJMREVRUH[HUFLVLQJDQGWR
KDYHUHWXUQHGWRZRUNDQGUHVXPHGRWKHUDFWLYLWLHV,QFRQWUDVWSDWLHQWVZKR
DWWULEXWHGWKHLUP\RFDUGLDOLQIDUFWLRQWRIDFWRUVEH\RQGWKHLUSHUVRQDOFRQWUROHJ
EDFNOXFNIDWHZHUHOHVVOLNHO\WRKDYHJHQHUDWHGDFWLYHSODQVIRUUHFRYHU\RUWR
KDYHUHWXUQHGWRZRUN7KHVHUHVXOWVVHHPWRLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHUHFRYHU\SURFHVVLV
HQKDQFHGZKHQLOOQHVVFRQGLWLRQVDUHSHUFHLYHGDVEHLQJPRGLILDEOHDQGXQGHURQH¶V
SHUVRQDOFRQWURO)XUWKHU%DU2QVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHVHNLQGVRISHUFHSWLRQV
PD\EHPRUHLPSRUWDQWSUHGLFWRUVRIVXFFHVVIXOUHKDELOLWDWLRQWKDQSK\VLFDO
LQGLFDWRUV
&RSLQJ
$OWKRXJKPRVWSDWLHQWVVXIIHUIURPDGYHUVHSV\FKRORJLFDOUHDFWLRQVDVDUHVXOWRID
GLVHDVHPRVWGRQRWVHHNSURIHVVLRQDOKHOS,QVWHDGWKH\GUDZRQWKHLULQWHUQDODQG
VRFLDOUHVRXUFHVIRUVROYLQJSUREOHPVDQGDOOHYLDWLQJSV\FKRORJLFDOGLVWUHVV0DHV
/HYHQWKDODQG'H5LGGHUK\SRWKHVL]HGWKDWFRSLQJZLWKDGLDJQRVLVLVPXFK
OLNHFRSLQJZLWKDQ\RWKHUVHYHUHO\VWUHVVIXOHYHQW7KHDSSUDLVDORIDFKURQLFGLVHDVH
DVWKUHDWHQLQJDQGFKDOOHQJLQJOHDGVWRWKHLQLWLDWLRQRIFRSLQJHIIRUWV/D]DUXV
)RONPDQ0HUFDGR&DUUROO&DVVLG\DQG&RHWHDVVHVVHGFRSLQJVW\OHV
LQSDWLHQWVZLWKQHFNDQGORZEDFNSDLQLQWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ7KH\GLIIHUHQWLDWHG
EHWZHHQSDVVLYHDQGDFWLYHFRSLQJDQGIRXQGWKDWWKHVHFRSLQJVW\OHVZHUHUHODWHG
WRSDUWLFXODUSV\FKRVRFLDOYDULDEOHV5HVXOWVVKRZHGDQDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQSDVVLYH
FRSLQJZLWKEHLQJPDUULHGJUHDWHUSDLQVHYHULW\GHSUHVVLRQDQGSRRUKHDOWK$FWLYH
FRSLQJZDVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKIHPDOHJHQGHUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQOHVVGHSUHVVLRQJRRG
KHDOWKDQGIUHTXHQWH[HUFLVH:KLOHUHVHDUFKLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFKURQLFORZ
EDFNSDLQGHSUHVVLRQDQGFRSLQJDFWLYLWLHV$WNLQVRQ6ODWHU3DWWHUVRQ*UDQNDQG
*DUILQIRXQGWKDWFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVXVHGGLIIHUHQWFRSLQJ
VWUDWHJLHVZKHQDWWHPSWLQJWRPDQDJHSDLQH[DFHUEDWLRQVWKDQZKHQFRQIURQWLQJ
PRUHJHQHUDOOLIHVWUHVVRUV$QLQFUHDVHGUDWHRISDVVLYHDYRLGDQWFRSLQJUHVSRQVHV
ZDVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQDQGFRQFXUUHQW
GHSUHVVHGPRRGUDWKHUWKDQZLWKFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQDORQH5HVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
75
DOWKRXJKVRPHSDWLHQWVPD\VHOHFWLYHO\HPSOR\SDVVLYHDYRLGDQWFRSLQJDFWLYLWLHVLQ
UHVSRQVHWRSDLQH[DFHUEDWLRQVWKHVHDUHOLNHO\DIXQFWLRQRIGHSUHVVHGPRRG
'XQNHO6FKHWWHU)HLQVWHLQ7D\ORU)DONHDVNHGFDQFHUSDWLHQWVWRLGHQWLI\
WKHDVSHFWRIWKHLUFDQFHUWKH\IRXQGWREHPRVWVWUHVVIXODQGKRZWKH\LQWHQGHGWR
GHDOZLWKWKHVHSUREOHPV5HVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWIHDUDQGXQFHUWDLQW\DERXWWKHIXWXUH
ZDVPRVWFRPPRQIROORZHGE\OLPLWDWLRQVLQSK\VLFDODELOLWLHVDSSHDUDQFH
DQGOLIHVW\OHDQGWKHQSDLQPDQDJHPHQW3DWLHQWV¶DQVZHUVWRFRSLQJ
VWUDWHJLHVFRXOGEHFDWHJRUL]HGLQWRILYHJURXSVVRFLDOVXSSRUWGLUHFWSUREOHP
VROYLQJHJ³,WDONHGWRVRPHRQHWRILQGRXWPRUHDERXWWKHVLWXDWLRQ´GLVWDQFLQJ
HJ³,GLGQ¶WOHWLWJHWWRPH´SRVLWLYHIRFXVHJ³,FDPHRXWRIWKHH[SHULHQFH
EHWWHUWKDQ,ZHQWLQ´FRJQLWLYHHVFDSHDYRLGDQFHHJ³,ZLVKHGWKDWWKH
VLWXDWLRQZRXOGJRDZD\ÉHKDYLRUDOHVFDSHDYRLGDQFHHJH[FHVVLYHVOHHSLQJ
GULQNLQJ,QFRPSDULVRQWRFRSLQJVWUDWHJLHVHPSOR\HGLQRWKHUVWUHVVIXOHYHQWV
KHDOWKSUREOHPVOHDGWRPRUHHPRWLRQIRFXVHGFRSLQJSHUKDSVEHFDXVHDWKUHDWWR
RQH¶VKHDOWKLVDQHYHQWWKDWPXVWEHWROHUDWHGEXWLVQRWQHFHVVDULO\DPHQDEOHWR
GLUHFWDFWLRQ7D\ORU+HDOWKSUREOHPVDOVROHDGSHRSOHWRVHHNVRFLDOVXSSRUW
7D\ORU
7D\ORUDGGUHVVHGWKHLVVXHRIZKLFKFRSLQJVWUDWHJLHVIDFLOLWDWHSV\FKRORJLFDO
DGMXVWPHQW6KHIRXQGWKDWWKHXVHRIDYRLGDQWFRSLQJLVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLQFUHDVHG
SV\FKRORJLFDOVWUHVVDQGWKHUHE\PD\EHDULVNIDFWRUIRUDGYHUVHUHVSRQVHVWR
LOOQHVV,QFRQWUDVWUHVHDUFKKDVIRXQGORZHUSV\FKRORJLFDOGLVWUHVVWREHDVVRFLDWHG
ZLWKSRVLWLYHFRQIURQWDWLYHUHVSRQVHVWRVWUHVVZLWKEHOLHIVWKDWRQHFDQSHUVRQDOO\
GLUHFWFRQWURORYHUDQLOOQHVV7D\ORU+HLJHVRQ5HHG6NRNDQ,WDSSHDUV
WKDWLQGLYLGXDOVZKRHPSOR\PXOWLSOHVWUDWHJLHVPD\FRSHEHWWHUZLWKWKHVWUHVVRI
FKURQLFGLVHDVHWKDQGRWKRVHZKRHQJDJHLQDSUHGRPLQDQWFRSLQJVW\OHV7D\ORU
7KHUDWLRQDOHEHKLQGWKLVK\SRWKHVLVLVWKDWWKHLQGLYLGXDOVDUHEHWWHUDEOHWR
PDWFKWKHFRSLQJVWUDWHJ\WRWKHSDUWLFXODUSUREOHPDWKDQG7KLVDUHDDSSHDUV
FRPSOH[DQGUHTXLUHVIXUWKHUUHVHDUFK
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
76
%HOLHIV
%HOLHIVDERXWFKURQLFLOOQHVV:KHQDGMXVWLQJWRDQHZGLDJQRVLVRIDFKURQLFLOOQHVV
SDWLHQWVPXVWVRPHKRZLQWHJUDWHWKHLULOOQHVVLQWRWKHLUOLYHV9LUWXDOO\DOOFKURQLF
LOOQHVVHVUHTXLUHVRPHDOWHUDWLRQRIDFWLYLWLHVDQGVRPHGHJUHHRIPDQDJHPHQW2QH
SUREOHPWKDWFDQDULVHLQDGMXVWPHQWWRFKURQLFLOOQHVVLVWKDWSDWLHQWVDGRSWDQ
LQDSSURSULDWHPRGHOIRUWKHLUGLVRUGHUPRVWQRWDEO\WKHDFXWHPRGHO7D\OHU
)RUH[DPSOHK\SHUWHQVLYHSDWLHQWVPD\EHOLHYHLQFRUUHFWO\WKDWLIWKH\IHHODOOULJKW
WKH\QRORQJHUQHHGWRWDNHWKHLUPHGLFDWLRQEHFDXVHWKHLUK\SWHUWHQVLRQLVXQGHU
FRQWURODFFRUGLQJO\WKH\PD\IDLOWRPRQLWRUWKHLUFRQGLWLRQFORVHO\7D\ORU
HPSKDVL]HVKRZLPSRUWDQWLWLVIRUKHDOWKFDUHSURYLGHUVWRSUREHWKHSDWLHQWV¶
FRPSUHKHQVLRQRIWKHLULOOQHVVWRFKHFNIRUVLJQLILFDQWJDSVDQGPLVXQGHUVWDQGLQJVLQ
WKHLUNQRZOHGJHWKDWPD\LQWHUIHUHZLWKVHOIPDQDJHPHQW
%HOLHIVDERXWWKHFDXVHRIWKHLOOQHVV$FFRUGLQJWRUHVHDUFKORQJWHUPDGMXVWPHQWLV
UHODWHGWRWZRSULPDU\EHOLHIVSHUFHSWLRQVRIWKHFDXVHRIWKHLOOQHVVDQGEHOLHIV
DERXWZKHWKHUWKHLOOQHVVFDQEHFRQWUROOHG,QGLYLGXDOVVXIIHULQJIURPERWKDFXWH
DQGFKURQLFLOOQHVVRIWHQGHYHORSWKHRULHVDERXWZKHUHWKHLULOOQHVVFDPHIURP
'RZQH\6LOYHU:RUWPDQ([DPSOHVRIVXFKWKHRULHVLQFOXGHVWUHVV
SK\VLFDOLQMXU\GLVHDVHFDXVLQJEDFWHULDDQG*RG¶VZLOO:KHUHSDWLHQWVSODFHWKH
EODPHIRUWKHLULOOQHVVVHHPVWREHWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWIDFWRU'RWKH\EODPH
WKHPVHOYHVDQRWKHUSHUVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWRUDTXLUNRIIDWH"
%HOLHIVDERXWWKHFRQWUROODELOLW\RIWKHLOOQHVV7KLVDUHDRIUHVHDUFKDGGUHVVHV
ZKHWKHUSDWLHQWVZKREHOLHYHWKH\FDQFRQWUROWKHLULOOQHVVDUHEHWWHURIIWKDQWKRVH
ZKRGRQRWVHHWKHLULOOQHVVDVXQGHUWKHLUFRQWURO)RUH[DPSOHPDQ\FDQFHU
SDWLHQWVEHOLHYHWKDWWKH\FDQSUHYHQWDUHFXUUHQFHRIWKHGLVHDVHWKURXJKJRRG
KHDOWKKDELWVRUHYHQVKHHUIRUFHRIZLOO7KH\PD\EHOLHYHWKDWE\FRPSO\LQJZLWK
WUHDWPHQWVDQGSK\VLFLDQV¶UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVWKH\DFKLHYHYLFDULRXVFRQWURORYHU
WKHLULOOQHVV7KHVHFRQWUROUHODWHGEHOLHIVPD\RUPD\QRWEHDFFXUDWH
,QWHUHVWLQJO\LQWHUYHQWLRQVWKDWDWWHPSWWRLQVWLOOIHHOLQJVRIFRQWURODUHRIWHQKLJKO\
VXFFHVVIXOLQSURPRWLQJJRRGDGMXVWPHQWDQGLQUHGXFLQJSK\VLRORJLFDODURXVDODQG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
77
HPRWLRQDOGLVWUHVVFDXVHGE\LOOQHVVDQGLWVWUHDWPHQW&RXOGIHHOLQJVRIFRQWUROKDYH
WKHVDPHEHQHILFLDOHIIHFWZKHQWKH\DUHVHOIJHQHUDWHGE\SDWLHQWVDWWHPSWLQJWR
GHDOZLWKFKURQLFLOOQHVV"
7KHOLWHUDWXUHLQGLFDWHVWKDWEHOLHILQFRQWURODQGDVHQVHRIHIILFDF\ZLWKUHVSHFWWR
WKHGLVHDVHDQGLWVWUHDWPHQWDUHJHQHUDOO\DGDSWLYH)RUH[DPSOHFDQFHUSDWLHQWV
ZKREHOLHYHGWKDWWKH\KDGFRQWURORYHUWKHLULOOQHVVZHUHEHWWHUDGMXVWHGWRWKHLU
FDQFHUWKDQZHUHSDWLHQWVZLWKRXWVXFKEHOLHIV7KRPSVRQ6REROHZ6KXELQ
*DOEUDLWK6FKZDQNRYVN\&UX]HQ6LPLODUUHSRUWVKDYHEHHQUHSRUWHGIRU
SDWLHQWVVXIIHULQJIURPYDULRXVGLVHDVHVLQFOXGLQJUKHXPDWRLGDUWKULWLVDQGSDWLHQWV
ZLWKVSLQDOFRUGLQMXULHV7KXVFRQWURODSSHDUVWREHKHOSIXOQRWRQO\LQFRSLQJZLWK
DFXWHGLVRUGHUVEXWDOVRZLWKWKHORQJWHUPGHELOLWDWLRQWKDWPD\UHVXOWIURPFKURQLF
LOOQHVV7KHUHLVVRPHHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHH[SHULHQFHRIFRQWURORUVHOIHIILFDF\PD\
SURORQJOLIH.DSODQ5LHV3UHZLWW(DNLQVWXGLHGSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLF
REVWUXFWLYHSXOPRQDU\GLVHDVHDQGIRXQGWKDWWKRVHZLWKKLJKHIILFDF\H[SHFWDWLRQV
OLYHGORQJHUWKDQWKRVHZLWKRXWVXFKH[SHFWDWLRQV+RZHYHUQRWDOOVWXGLHVKDYH
IRXQGWKDWIHHOLQJVRIFRQWURODUHDGDSWLYHLQDGMXVWLQJWRFKURQLFFRQGLWLRQV
%ODPH
,QFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVVHOIEODPHLVUHSRUWHGRIWHQ3DWLHQWVIUHTXHQWO\SHUFHLYH
WKHPVHOYHVDVKDYLQJEURXJKWRQWKHLULOOQHVVWKURXJKWKHLURZQDFWLRQV,QVRPH
FDVHVWKHVHSHUFHSWLRQDUHFRUUHFW3RRUKHDOWKKDELWVVXFKDVVPRNLQJLPSURSHU
GLHWRUODFNRIH[HUFLVHFDQSURPRWHGLVHDVHVVXFKDVKHDUWGLVHDVHVWURNHDQG
FDQFHU,QVRPHFDVHVVHOIEODPHPD\EHJURXQGOHVVHJE\DJHQHWLFDOO\EDVHG
GHIHFW
7KHFRQVHTXHQFHVRIVHOIEODPHDUHQRWNQRZQ6RPHUHVHDUFKHUVVXJJHVWWKDWVHOI
EODPHFDQOHDGWRJXLOWVHOIUHFULPLQDWLRQRUGHSUHVVLRQ6HOIEODPLQJSDWLHQWVPD\
EHSRRUO\DGMXVWHGWRWKHLULOOQHVVEHFDXVHWKH\IRFXVRQWKLQJVWKH\FRXOGKDYHRU
VKRXOGKDYHGRQHWRSUHYHQWLW2WKHUUHVHDUFKHUVKDYHIRXQGWKDWWKHVHOIEODPH
PD\EHDGDSWLYH3HUFHLYLQJWKHFDXVHDVVHOIJHQHUDWHGPD\UHSUHVHQWDQHIIRUWWR
DVVXPHFRQWURORYHUWKHGLVRUGHUVXFKIHHOLQJFDQEHDGDSWLYHLQFRSLQJZLWKDQG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
78
FRPLQJWRWHUPVZLWKWKHGLVRUGHU7KHVHFRQWUDGLFWRU\ILQGLQJVVHHPWRVXJJHVWWKDW
VHOIEODPHLVDGDSWLYHXQGHUFHUWDLQFRQGLWLRQVEXWQRWRWKHUV5HVHDUFKGRHV
VXJJHVWWKDWEODPLQJDQRWKHUSHUVRQIRURQH¶VGLVRUGHULVPDODGDSWLYH7XUQTXLVWHW
DO)RUH[DPSOHVRPHSDWLHQWVEHOLHYHWKDWWKHLUGLVRUGHUVZHUHEURXJKWRQ
E\VWUHVVFDXVHGE\IDPLO\PHPEHUVH[VSRXVHVRUFROOHDJXHVDWZRUN%ODPHRI
WKLVRWKHUSHUVRQRUSHUVRQVPD\EHWLHGWRXQUHVROYHGKRVWLOLW\ZKLFKFDQLQWHUIHUH
ZLWKDGMXVWPHQWWRWKHGLVHDVH7KHHIIHFWVRIRWKHUDWWULEXWLRQVLVQRWZHOO
GRFXPHQWHG6SHFLILFDOO\QRUHODWLRQVKLSVKDYHEHHQIRXQGEHWZHHQOXFNDQG
DGMXVWPHQWRUEHWZHHQDWWULEXWLRQWRHQYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUVDQGDGMXVWPHQW
(PSLULFDO6WXG\RI3DUWLFXODU,QWHUHVW7KHIROORZLQJVWXG\LVSDUWLFXODUO\UHOHYDQW
VLQFHLWVHUYHVDVDPRGHOIRUDVVHVVLQJFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRUWKHGLVHDVHVFDQFHU
DQGKHDUWGLVHDVH6FKPLGW5DWKMHQVH[DPLQHGWKHVXEMHFWLYHUHOHYDQFHRI
SV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVLQWKHRQVHWRIWKHVHGLVHDVHV1 SDUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGWKH
LQIOXHQFHRISHUVRQDOLW\FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRQFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH)DFWRUDQDO\VHV
VKRZHGDFOHDUGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHLWHPVORDGLQJRQ)DFWRU³FDQFHU´DQGWKH
LWHPVORDGLQJRQ)DFWRUVDQG³KHDUWGLVHDVH´3DUWLFLSDQWVFRQVLGHUHGERWK
GHSUHVVLRQORVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ)DFWRUDQGFRQVWDQWVWUHVVDQGGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ
)DFWRUWREHLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVHZKLOHDFRPELQDWLRQRIDOO
WKHK\SRWKHWLFDOFDXVDOIDFWRUVVHHPHGWREHUHOHYDQWIRUFDQFHU)DFWRU
,QWKHQH[WVWHS6FKPLGW5DWKMHQVWHVWHGZKHWKHUEHLQJDIIOLFWHGZLWKHLWKHU
FDQFHURUKHDUWGLVHDVHKDGDQHIIHFWRQFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQV$FFRUGLQJWRVXEMHFWLYH
WKHRULHVLWZDVH[SHFWHGWKDWGLVHDVHVXIIHUHUVZRXOGPDNHPRUHGLIIHUHQWLDWHG
FRJQLWLRQVLHFKRRVHPRUHUHOHYDQWIDFWRUVWKDQKHDOWK\FRQWUROV7KHGLVWLQFWLRQ
EHWZHHQWKHKHDOWK\FRQWUROVQ FDQFHUQ DQGKHDUWGLVHDVHQ VXIIHUHUVZDVPDGHWKURXJKVHOIUHSRUWV9DULPD[ORDGLQJVFRQIRUPHGWR
H[SHFWDWLRQVIRUWKHFDQFHUJURXSFDQFHUSDWLHQWVVHOHFWHGPRUHSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUV
UHOHYDQWWRGLVHDVHRQVHWWKDQKHDOWK\FRQWUROV7KHYDULPD[ORDGLQJVIRUWKHKHDUW
GLVHDVHJURXSGLGQRWFRQIRUPWRH[SHFWDWLRQVWKHUHZDVQRGLIIHUHQFHLQWKH
QXPEHURISHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVEHWZHHQWKHKHDUWGLVHDVHJURXSDQGKHDOWK\FRQWUROV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
79
KHDOWK\FDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVH[UHOHYDQFHUDWLQJVIRUFDQFHUDQGKHDUW
GLVHDVH$129$VVKRZHGWKDWZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRI,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\LJQRULQJ
RQH¶VRZQQHHGV´VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGIRUDOORIWKHLWHPVUHJDUGLQJ
WKHLUUHOHYDQFHIRURQVHWRIFDQFHURUKHDUWGLVHDVHLHWKHSRVVLEOHFDXVHVRI
FDQFHURUKHDUWGLVHDVHZHUHUDWHGGLIIHUHQWO\3DUWLFLSDQWVVFRUHGWKHSHUVRQDOLW\
LWHPVIRUWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVHKLJKHUDQGPRUHFRQVLVWHQWO\UHFRJQL]DEOH
WKURXJKWKHORZHUVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVWKDQIRUFDQFHU6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV
7KHVHGLIIHUHQFHVPD\EHDWWULEXWHGWRWKHIDFWWKDWWKHULVNIDFWRUVIRUKHDUW
GLVHDVHHJVWUHVVDUHEHWWHUUHVHDUFKHGWKDQWKRVHIRUFDQFHULQSDUWLFXODU
EHFDXVHWKHHWLRORJ\RIFDQFHULVJHQHUDOO\FRPSOH[DQGQRWZHOOXQGHUVWRRG
,QWKLVVWXG\WKHSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVIRUPXODWHGE\6FKPLGW5DWKMHQVZLOO
EHXVHGWRLGHQWLI\FDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRUFDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVHDVZHOODVIRUEDFN
SDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
80
7+(52/(2)*(1'(5$1')$0,/<35(9(17,21$1'75($70(17
*HQGHU'LIIHUHQFHV
%RWKFOLQLFLDQVDQGUHVHDUFKHUVKDYHODUJHO\LJQRUHGSRWHQWLDORUDFWXDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQ
KRZPHQDQGZRPHQUHSRUWV\PSWRPVRUUHVSRQGWRWKHUDSHXWLFLQWHUYHQWLRQV0RVW
VWXGLHVKDYHWUHDWHGPHQDQGZRPHQDVHTXDOVDQGKDYHQRWDVNHGTXHVWLRQVDERXW
ZKHWKHUWKHVHDUHEHWZHHQJHQGHUJURXSGLIIHUHQFHVRUZLWKLQJHQGHUJURXS
GLIIHUHQFHVLQWUHDWPHQWV,QIDFWLQWKHVWXG\RIQHZSKDUPDFHXWLFDODJHQWV
VDPSOHVDUHUHVWULFWHGWRPDOHSDUWLFLSDQWVEHFDXVHRIFRQFHUQVDERXWH[SRVLQJ
ZRPHQRIFKLOGEHDULQJ\HDUVWRGUXJVWKDWPLJKWSURGXFHWHUDWRJHQLFHIIHFWV
0LDVNRZVNL
3DLQSHUFHSWLRQ7KHPDMRULW\RIWKHVWXGLHVGRQHLQWKLVDUHDKDYHDWWHPSWHGWR
GHWHUPLQHLIPHQDQGZRPHQKDYHGLIIHUHQWSDLQWKUHVKROGVDQGGLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRI
SDLQWROHUDQFH3DLQWKUHVKROGLVGHILQHGDVDPLQLPXPDPRXQWRIVWLPXODWLRQWKDW
UHOLDEO\HYRNHVDUHSRUWRISDLQLQDQLQGLYLGXDO3DLQWROHUDQFHLVGHILQHGDVWKHWLPH
WKDWDFRQWLQXRXVVWLPXOXVLVHQGXUHGE\DQLQGLYLGXDORUWKHPD[LPDOO\WROHUDWHG
VWLPXOXVLQWHQVLW\WKDWDSHUVRQFDQHQGXUH0LDVNRZVNL6WXGLHVXVLQJ
H[SHULPHQWDOSDLQHJFROGSUHVVXUHSDLQVHHPWRVKRZWKDWZRPHQH[KLELWORZHU
SDLQWKUHVKROGVWKDQPHQ,QDGGLWLRQLQPRVWRIWKHVWXGLHVZRPHQH[KLELWHGOHVV
WROHUDQFHWRQR[LRXVVWLPXOLWKDQPHQGLG7KHVHILQGLQJVDUHRIWHQLQWHUSUHWHGWR
PHDQWKDWZRPHQDUHPRUHVHQVLWLYHWRSDLQIXOVWLPXOLWKDQPHQ
0LDVNRZVNLSUHVHQWVSODXVLEOHH[SODQDWLRQVWRH[SODLQWKHJHQGHUGLIIHUHQFHV
LQUHVSRQVHVWRH[SHULPHQWDOO\LQGXFHGSDLQ2QHH[SODQDWLRQLQYROYHVWKHKRUPRQDO
VWDWXVRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQW6HYHUDOVWXGLHVUHSRUWHGWKDWDZRPDQ¶VSKDVHLQWKH
PHQVWUXDOF\FOHRUKHUUHSURGXFWLYHVWDWXVLHSUHJQDQWQRWSUHJQDQWFDQDIIHFW
SDLQLQWHQVLW\UDWLQJV0LDVNRZVNL$QRWKHUSRVVLEOHH[SODQDWLRQLVWKDWWKH
JHQGHURIWKHLQGLYLGXDOSHUIRUPLQJWKHH[SHULPHQWVSOD\VDUROHSDLQUHSRUWV6RPH
VWXGLHVIRXQGWKDWPHQUHSRUWHGOHVVSDLQLQIURQWRIDIHPDOHH[SHULPHQWHUWKDQD
PDOHH[SHULPHQWHUZKLOHIHPDOHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHQRWLQIOXHQFHGE\WKHJHQGHURI
WKHH[SHULPHQWHU0LDVNRZVNL$OWKRXJKWKHGDWDLVQRWFRQFOXVLYHLWGRHV
VHHPWRVXJJHVWJHQGHUGLIIHUHQFHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
81
3HUFHSWLRQVDERXWWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFH%HQGHORZFRQGXFWHGDTXDOLWDWLYH
VWXG\DGGUHVVLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQSHUFHSWLRQVRISDLQDQGYDULRXVVRFLDO
FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOLQFOXGLQJWKHLQIOXHQFHRIJHQGHU5HVXOWVVKRZHG
WKDWVLJQLILFDQWO\PRUHZRPHQWKDQPHQWKRXJKWWKDWDQ[LHW\IHDUDQGGHSUHVVLRQ
DIIHFWHGWKHLUSHUFHSWLRQRISDLQ$QRWKHUILQGLQJRI%HQGHORZ¶VVWXG\ZDV
WKDWRIWKHIHPDOHVDQGRIWKHPDOHVEHOLHYHGWKDWZRPHQZHUHEHWWHU
DEOHWRFRSHZLWKSDLQWKDQPHQ%RWKPHQDQGZRPHQH[SUHVVHGWKHYLHZWKDWWKH
FRPELQDWLRQRIIHPDOHELRORJ\DQGWKHUHSURGXFWLYHUROHVHUYHWRHTXLSZRPHQZLWK
D³QDWXUDO´FDSDFLW\WRHQGXUHSDLQERWKSK\VLFDOO\DQGHPRWLRQDOO\)XUWKHU
%HQGHORZVXJJHVWHGWKDWFKLOGUHQDUHVRFLDOL]HGWRWKLQNDERXWSDLQDQGUHDFW
WRSDLQIXOHYHQWVLQFHUWDLQZD\V)RUH[DPSOHER\VDUHDFWLYHO\GLVFRXUDJHGIURP
H[SUHVVLQJHPRWLRQV
,WKDVEHHQVXJJHVWHGWKDWVHYHUDOFKURQLFSDLQSUREOHPVKDYHVSHFLILFJHQGHU
GLVWULEXWLRQV8QUXKUHYLHZHGQXPHURXVVWXGLHVLQWKLVDUHDDQGIRXQGWKDW
ZRPHQWHQGWRVXIIHUPRUHRIWHQIURPPLJUDLQHKHDGDFKHVUKHXPDWRLG
DUWKULWLV&DUSDOWXQQHOV\QGURPH7HPSRURPDQGLEXODUMRLQWGLVRUGHU
WRZKLOHPHQWHQGWRVXIIHUPRUHWKDQZRPHQIURPFOXVWHUKHDGDFKHV
6HYHUDOHSLGHPLRORJLFDOUHWURVSHFWLYHVWXGLHVKDYHDOVRLQGLFDWHGWKDWZRPHQ
UHSRUWJUHDWHUSDLQZLWKWKHVDPHSDWKRORJ\JUHDWHUQXPEHURISDLQIXOVLWHVDQGDUH
PRUHOLNHO\WRGHYHORSDFKURQLFSDLQV\QGURPHDIWHUHTXLYDOHQWWUDXPD0LDVNRZVNL
1XPHURXVIDFWRUVLQIOXHQFHWKDWGDWD)RUH[DPSOHZRPHQUHSRUWPRUH
GRFWRUYLVLWVDQGPRUHUHWXUQYLVLWVWKDQPHQ0LDVNRZVNLDUJXHVWKDWWKHVH
GLIIHUHQFHPD\EHGXHWRDZLOOLQJQHVVWRUHSRUWSDLQLQJHQHUDODQGWRUHSRUW
KHDOWKFDUHYLVLWVLQSDUWLFXODU
)LQDOO\0LDVNRZVNLH[DPLQHGZKHWKHUKHDOWKFDUHSURIHVVLRQDOVUHVSRQG
GLIIHUHQWO\WRPHQ¶VDQGZRPHQ¶VUHSRUWVRISDLQDQGSDLQEHKDYLRUV6WXGLHVVHHPWR
VXJJHVWWKDWZRPHQUHFHLYHOHVVSDLQPHGLFDWLRQWKDQPHQLQYDULRXVSDWLHQWV¶
SRSXODWLRQVHJDEGRPLQDOVXUJHU\FRURQDU\DUWHU\E\SDVVJUDIW6KHVXJJHVWHG
WKDWZRPHQPD\EHWDNHQOHVVVHULRXVO\WKDQPHQDQGPD\LQIDFWUHFHLYHPRUH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
82
VHGDWLYHPHGLFDWLRQWRLQKLELWWKHLUH[SUHVVLYHEHKDYLRU0LDVNRZVNL$OWKRXJK
WKHUHLVHYLGHQFHWKDWDJHQGHUELDVLQKRZKHDOWKFDUHSURIHVVLRQDOVUHVSRQGWR
PHQ¶VDQGZRPHQ¶VUHSRUWVRIDFXWHDQGFKURQLFSDLQDGGLWLRQDOUHVHDUFKLV
ZDUUDQWHG
7KH5ROHRIWKH)DPLO\
,WVHHPVREYLRXVWKDWZKHQDQLQGLYLGXDOVXIIHUVIURPFKURQLFSDLQWKDWWKLVZLOO
KDYHDQHIIHFWRQWKHGDLO\OLYHVRIHDFKIDPLO\PHPEHU7KHUHYHUVHLVDOVRWUXHLH
IDPLO\QRUPVDOVRLQIOXHQFHKRZPHPEHUVGHDOZLWKWKHLVVXHRIFKURQLFSDLQ,WLV
ZLWKLQWKHIDPLO\WKDWKHDOWK\RUXQKHDOWK\EHKDYLRUVDUHHQFRXUDJHGDQGWKDW
KDELWVDUHIRUPHG
5HVHDUFKGHPRQVWUDWHVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHIDPLO\DQGFORVHVRFLDOHQYLURQPHQWV
ZLWKUHVSHFWWRKHDOWKDQGLOOQHVV$VFLWHGLQ)\GULFKDQG)ORUPRVW
VLFNQHVVHVDUHWUHDWHGDWKRPHSDWLHQWFRPSOLDQFHEHKDYLRULVUHODWHGWRWKH
DWWLWXGHVRIFORVHIULHQGVDQGIDPLO\FKLOGUHQDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRVKRZKHDOWK\
KDELWVZKHQWKHLUSDUHQWVSDUWDNHLQVLPLODUDFWLYLWLHVDQGWUHDWPHQWHIILFDF\LV
UHODWHGWRSRVLWLYHIDPLO\VXSSRUW
)DPLO\G\QDPLFVFDQDOVRQHJDWLYHO\LQIOXHQFHWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFH)\GULFKDQG)ORU
LQWKHLUUHYLHZIRXQGWKDWVWUHVVIXOVLWXDWLRQVOLNHFRQWLQXRXVILJKWLQJPD\
QHJDWLYHO\LQIOXHQFHWKHFRXUVH±DQGSRVVLEO\SOD\DUROHLQWKHRQVHW±RIDQDFXWH
RUFKURQLFGLVHDVH,QRIWKHIDPLOLHVRIFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVDQRWKHUIDPLO\
PHPEHUDOVRVXIIHUVIURPSDLQSDWLHQWVUHSRUWPRUHSDLQDQGVKRZPRUHIXQFWLRQDO
OLPLWDWLRQVLQWKHSUHVHQFHRIDVROLFLWRXVSDUWQHUWKDQDORQH
)\GULFKDQG7XUNDGGUHVVIRXULVVXHVUHJDUGLQJWKHLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQSDLQ
DQGIDPLOLHV&DQWKHIDPLO\LQIOXHQFHWKHRQVHWRIFKURQLFSDLQ"'RHVWKH
IDPLO\SOD\DUROHLQWKHFKURQLILFDWLRQDQGWKHFRXUVHRIDFKURQLFSDLQV\QGURPH"
+RZGRHVFKURQLFSDLQLQIOXHQFHWKHHYHU\GD\OLYHVRIIDPLO\PHPEHUV"+RZ
FDQLQFOXVLRQRIIDPLO\PHPEHUVLQFUHDVHWKHHIILFDF\RIGLDJQRVLVDQGWUHDWPHQWRI
FKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV"
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
83
7KH5ROHRIWKH)DPLO\LQWKH2QVHWRI&KURQLF3DLQ$OWKRXJKDUHYLHZRIWKH
OLWHUDWXUHVXJJHVWVWKDWLQIDPLOLHVZLWKFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVPRUHSDLQV\PSWRPV
DUHUHSRUWHGE\IDPLO\PHPEHUVWKDQLQFRPSDULVRQJURXSVQRFRQFOXVLYHHYLGHQFH
SURYHVDIDPLOLDOFDXVDOLW\7KLVLVVXHLVFRPSOLFDWHGZLWKYDULRXVFRQWULEXWLQJIDFWRUV
LQFOXGLQJELRORJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDOYDULDEOHVFIDERYH,QDGGLWLRQWKHVH
VWXGLHVDUHDIIOLFWHGZLWKPHWKRGRORJLFDOSUREOHPVVXFKDVUHWURVSHFWLYHFROOHFWLRQRI
GDWDVHOHFWLRQELDVHVHJFOLQLFDOVDPSOHVLQDGHTXDWHRUPLVVLQJFRPSDULVRQ
JURXSVDQGSRRUUHOLDELOLW\GXHWRVHOIUHSRUWV
7KH5ROHRIWKH)DPLO\LQWKH&KURQLILFDWLRQRI&KURQLF3DLQ%DVHGRQWKHRSHUDQW
PRGHOGLVFXVVHGDERYHLWLVDVVXPHGWKDWSDUWLFXODUSDLQEHKDYLRUVHJQRQYHUEDO
EHKDYLRUVLQFOXGLQJVLJKLQJUXEELQJWKHSDLQIXODUHDLQFRQQHFWLRQZLWKSDLQZLOO
LQFUHDVHRUGHFUHDVHGHSHQGLQJRQZKHWKHUWKH\DUHUHLQIRUFHGLHWKURXJK
DWWHQWLRQEHLQJUHOLHYHGRIUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVSDLQDYRLGDQFH)RUH[DPSOHLQFKURQLF
EDFNSDLQLQDFWLYLW\LVQHJDWLYHO\UHLQIRUFHGWKURXJKSDLQDYRLGDQFH7KLVLQDFWLYLW\
LVRIWHQVXSSRUWHGE\IDPLO\PHPEHUVDQGFDQOHDGWRSDLQIXOPXVFXODUDWURSK\7KLV
F\FOHRISDLQLQDFWLYLW\PXVFOHDWURSK\PD\UHSUHVHQWDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQWKH
FKURQLILFDWLRQRISDLQ)\GULFK)ORU)DPLOLDOVXSSRUWGRHVQRWQHFHVVDULO\
KDYHWREHGLVDGYDQWDJHRXV3DXOVHQDQG$OWPHLHUDVFLWHGLQ)\GULFK)ORU
IRXQGDUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHW\SHRIVRFLDOVXSSRUWDQGSDLQ7KH\UHSRUW
WKDWDSDUWQHU¶VEHKDYLRUWKDWUHOLHYHVWKHSDLQSDWLHQWRIUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVRUVXSSRUWV
UHVWDQGUHOD[DWLRQFDQOHDGWRPRUHRYHUWSDLQEHKDYLRUV2QWKHRWKHUKDQG
SHUFHLYHGVXSSRUWLQWKHIRUPRIHPRWLRQDOVXSSRUWEHORQJLQJSDUWQHU
GHSHQGDELOLW\VRFLDOLQWHJUDWLRQDQGUHVSHFWLVUHODWHGWROHVVRYHUWSDLQEHKDYLRUVLQ
WKHSUHVHQFHRIWKHSDUWQHU)XUWKHU-DPLVRQDQG9LUWVDVFLWHGLQ)\GULFK
)ORUSURSRVHWKDWIDPLOLDOVXSSRUWLVDSUHGLFWRUIRUEHWWHUWUHDWPHQWHIILFDF\
$WWKHPRQWKVIROORZXSSDWLHQWVVXSSRUWHGE\WKHLUIDPLOLHVUHSRUWHGDORZHU
SDLQLQWHQVLW\UHTXLUHGOHVVPHGLFDWLRQDQGZHUHPRUHDFWLYHWKDQWKHFRPSDULVRQ
JURXS7KHUHVXOWVIURPWKHVHVWXGLHVVXJJHVWWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHW\SHRIVRFLDO
VXSSRUWUHFHLYHG$QHPRWLRQDOO\VXSSRUWLYHSDUWQHUDQGFORVHIDPLOLDOWLHVPD\
HQDEOHVRPHSDLQSDWLHQWVWREHWWHUFRSHZLWKWKHLUSDLQ)\GULFK)ORU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
84
7KH(IIHFWRI&KURQLF3DLQRQWKH)DPLO\&KURQLFSDLQLVFOLQLFDOO\GHILQHGDVDSDLQ
H[SHULHQFHODVWLQJVL[PRQWKVRUPRUHRIWHQ\HDUV7KHDVSHFWRIWLPHWKHQLVLQ
DQGRILWVHOIDVWUHVVIDFWRUWKDWDIIHFWVIDPLO\PHPEHUV.HUQV'ZRUNLQ5RPDQR
7KRUQ:LOOLDPVDQG)ORUIRXQGWKDWWKHSDUWQHUVRISDLQSDWLHQWV
UHSRUWPRUHVWUHVVV\PSWRPVDQGZHUHPRUHOLNHO\WRIXOILOOWKHFULWHULDIRUD
GHSUHVVLYHGLVRUGHU0DUXWDDQG2VERUQHDVFLWHGLQ)\GULFK)ORU
VXJJHVWWKDWDVSDLQSDWLHQWVPD\H[SHULHQFHUHGXFHGOLELGRSDUWQHUVPD\EHFRPH
GLVVDWLVILHGEHFDXVHRILW)LQDQFLDOGLIILFXOWLHVFDQDOVREHH[SHFWHGHVSHFLDOO\ZKHQ
FKURQLFSDLQFDXVHVORVVRIYRFDWLRQ7KLVDUHDRIUHVHDUFKKRZHYHULVHPSLULFDOO\
QRWZHOOVXSSRUWHG,WLVDOVRLPSRUWDQWWRNHHSLQPLQGWKDWDODUJHSRUWLRQRIWKH
IDPLO\PHPEHUVRIFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVGHPRQVWUDWHHIIHFWLYHFRSLQJVWUDWHJLHVDQG
WKDWQRWDOOIDPLOLHVRIFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVVKRZSK\VLFDORUPHQWDOKHDOWKSUREOHPV
)\GULFK)ORU
7KH5ROHRIWKH)DPLO\LQ'LDJQRVLVDQG7UHDWPHQW'XHWRWKHLQWHUDFWLRQRIIDPLO\
DQGFKURQLFSDLQGLVFXVVHGDERYHLWVHHPVLPSRUWDQWWRLQFOXGHIDPLOLDODVSHFWVLQ
GLDJQRVLQJSDLQSDWLHQWV,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHEHKDYLRUDODQDO\VHVZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGLQ
EHKDYLRUDOWKHUDS\)\GULFKDQG)ORUKDYHIRUPXODWHGWKHIROORZLQJTXHVWLRQV
+RZKDVIDPLO\OLIHFKDQJHGVLQFHSDLQRQVHW":KLFKSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHDVSHFWV
KDYHHPHUJHGGXHWRWKHFKDQJHV":KDWNLQGRIUHVRXUFHVSV\FKRORJLFDOVRFLDO
ILQDQFLDODUHDYDLODEOHDQGKRZFDQWKH\EHXVHGLQWKHWKHUDS\"+RZZRXOGIDPLO\
PHPEHUVOLNHWRFKDQJHWKHFXUUHQWVLWXDWLRQ"
6XPPDU\$OWKRXJKFDXVDOVWDWHPHQWVDERXWWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFKURQLFSDLQ
DQGIDPLOLHVFDQQRWEHPDGHEDVHGRQFXUUHQWHPSLULFDOGDWD)\GULFK)ORU
HPSKDVL]HWKDWWKHIDPLO\SOD\VDQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWDQGFRXUVHRI
FKURQLFSDLQ,QDGGLWLRQIDPLOLHVDUHQHJDWLYHO\DIIHFWHG±ILQDQFLDOO\
SV\FKRORJLFDOO\DQGSK\VLFDOO\±ZKHQDIDPLO\PHPEHUKDVFKURQLFSDLQ7R
LQFUHDVHWKHUDSHXWLFHIIHFWLYHQHVVWKHVHDXWKRUVUHFRPPHQGLQYROYLQJWKHIDPLO\
HVSHFLDOO\GXULQJWKHGLDJQRVWLFSURFHVVHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
85
3UHYHQWLRQ
7KHHVVHQWLDOFRPSRQHQWRIDQ\HIIHFWLYHWUHDWPHQWPRGDOLW\LVDFRPSUHKHQVLYH
XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIDGLVRUGHU¶VHWLRORJ\&RQVHTXHQWO\DVKLIWIURPFXUDWLYHHIIRUWV
WRZDUGSUHYHQWDWLYHVWUDWHJLHVLVEHJLQQLQJWRGRPLQDWHWKHFXUUHQWGLUHFWLRQRI
UHVHDUFKZLWKUHJDUGWRORZEDFNSDLQ*DURIDOR3RODWLQ7KHUHDUHWKUHH
OHYHOVRISUHYHQWLRQUHFRJQL]HGE\WUHDWPHQWWHDPVSULPDU\VHFRQGDU\DQG
WHUWLDU\:KHUHDVSULPDU\SUHYHQWLRQWHFKQLTXHVWU\WRUHGXFHWKHLQFLGHQFHRIWKH
GLVRUGHUSULRUWRRQVHWVHFRQGDU\SUHYHQWLRQVWULYHVWRLPSOHPHQWDFRPSUHKHQVLYH
LQWHUYHQWLRQHDUO\LQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHGLVRUGHU7HUWLDU\SUHYHQWLRQJHQHUDOO\
LQYROYHVHOLPLQDWLQJRUUHGXFLQJWKHGLVDELOLW\DQGVXIIHULQJVWHPPLQJIURPWKH
GLVRUGHU3DVWSUHYHQWLYHVWUDWHJLHVGHVLJQHGWRUHGXFHORZEDFNSUREOHPVLQWKH
ZRUNIRUFHKDYHIRFXVHGRQUHGXFLQJORZEDFNSDLQHSLVRGHVEHOLHYHGWREH
LQLWLDWHGE\ZRUNUHGXFLQJORZEDFNSDLQUHODWHGPHGLFDOOHDYHSURORQJLQJ
WKHWHQXUHRIHPSOR\HHVZLWKORZEDFNSDLQ
,QJHQHUDOSUHYHQWLRQFRQVLVWVRILGHQWLI\LQJLQGLYLGXDOVDWKLJKULVNIRUORZEDFN
SDLQSUHGLFWLQJZKRZLOOUHPDLQGLVDEOHGIRUDORQJSHULRGRIWLPHDIWHUVXFKDQ
LQMXU\HQVXULQJHIIHFWLYHWUHDWPHQWDOJRULWKPVWRJHWSDWLHQWVEDFNWRZRUNDVVRRQ
DVSRVVLEOHDQGWRLGHQWLI\ZRUNSODFHPRGLILFDWLRQVWRSUHYHQWLQMXU\DQGHQDEOH
HDUO\ZRUNUHWXUQ*DURIDOR3RODWLQ
7UHDWPHQW
7KHXVXDOFRXUVHRIDORZEDFNSDLQHSLVRGHLVXVXDOO\EHQLJQ)LIW\SHUFHQWRIWKH
SDWLHQWVVXIIHULQJIURPORZEDFNSDLQZLOOUHWXUQWRIXOOIXQFWLRQLQJZLWKLQWZRZHHNV
ZLOOUHFRYHULQPRQWKDQGDSSUR[LPDWHO\ZLOOUHFRYHUZLWKLQWKUHHWRVL[
PRQWKV0D\HU*DWFKHO1HYHUWKHOHVVWRRILQGLYLGXDOVVXIIHULQJ
IURPORZEDFNSDLQZLOOH[SHULHQFHDUHFXUUHQFHRIWKUHHRUPRUHHSLVRGHV3DWLHQWV
UHPDLQLQJV\PSWRPDWLFDIWHUVL[PRQWKVKDYHDPXFKSRRUHUSURJQRVLVZLWK
GLPLQLVKHGOHYHOVRIRFFXSDWLRQDODQGVRFLDOIXQFWLRQLQJ0D\HU7KHPDMRULW\
RIWKLVJURXSZLOOUHPDLQGLVDEOHGDIWHURQHDQGWZR\HDUV&KURQLFLW\RISDLQLVOHVV
GHSHQGHQWRQPHGLFDOWKDQRQSV\FKRVRFLDOIDFWRUV*DURIDOR3RODWLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
86
7UHDWPHQWEHJLQVZLWKWKHSDWLHQWVHHNLQJLPPHGLDWHUHOLHIIRUKLVRUKHUSDLQIURPD
SULPDU\FDUHSURYLGHU%RWKVSRQWDQHRXVUHFRYHU\DQGHDUO\LQWHUYHQWLRQDFFRXQWIRU
WKHPDMRULW\RIVXFFHVVIXORXWFRPHV,PPHGLDWHO\IROORZLQJDQLQMXU\SDVVLYH
WUHDWPHQWPRGDOLWLHVHJPHGLFDWLRQEHGUHVWDUHW\SLFDOO\GLUHFWHGWRZDUG
FRQWUROOLQJWKHSDLQV\PSWRPV3RODWLQ.LQQH\*DWFKHOO/LOOR0D\HU,WLVDW
WKLVSRLQWWKDWWKHPDMRULW\RISDWLHQWVH[SHULHQFHIXOOUHOLHIRIWKHLUSDLQDQGD
FRPSOHWHUHFRYHU\IURPLQMXU\+RZHYHUIRUWKHSDWLHQWVZKRVHSDLQV\PSWRPVGR
QRWVXEVLGHWKHSURFHVVHVRIGHFRQGLWLRQLQJDQGGLVDELOLW\UHLQIRUFHGE\VHFRQGDU\
JDLQDUHEHJLQQLQJ*DURIDOR3RODWLQ7KHGHVLUHWRDYRLGSDLQOHDGVWR
UHGXFHGSK\VLFDODFWLYLW\DQGUHVXOWVLQMRLQWVEHFRPLQJSURJUHVVLYHO\VWLIIHUDQG
PXVFOHVEHFRPLQJZHDNHU
:KHQSDLQSHUVLVWVEH\RQGWKHLQLWLDOIRXUZHHNVVHFRQGDU\FDUHSURJUDPVDUH
UHFRPPHQGHGWRFRUUHFWHDUO\GHFRQGLWLRQLQJ0RELOL]DWLRQVWUHQJWKHQLQJDQGZRUN
VLPXODWLRQKHOSWRGHYHORSDJUHDWHUHQGXUDQFHWRIDWLJXHDQGSDLQDQGPD\
IDFLOLWDWHWKHUHWXUQWRZRUN*DURIDOR3RODWLQ3V\FKRORJLFDOLQWHUYHQWLRQLV
QRWRIIHUHGDWWKLVWLPHLQPRVWWUHDWPHQWFOLQLFV
3K\VLFDO7KHUDS\6RPHHYLGHQFHLQGLFDWHVWKDWH[HUFLVHDLPHGDWVWUHQJWKHQLQJEDFN
RUDEGRPLQDOPXVFOHVDQGH[HUFLVHDLPHGDWLPSURYLQJRYHUDOOILWQHVVFDQGHFUHDVH
ULVNRIVXEVHTXHQWORZEDFNSDLQEXWWKHHIIHFWLVPRGHVWDQGRIXQNQRZQGXUDWLRQ
,QVXIILFLHQWHYLGHQFHLVIRXQGWRUHFRPPHQGWKDWHLWKHUEDFNHGXFDWLRQSURJUDPVRU
PHFKDQLFDOVXSSRUWVEHXVHGURXWLQHO\WRSUHYHQWEDFNSDLQ7KHVHFRQFOXVLRQV
VKRXOGEHJHQHUDOL]HGFDXWLRXVO\EHFDXVHWKH\DUHEDVHGSULPDULO\RQVWXGLHV
FRQGXFWHGLQWKHZRUNSODFHDQGQRWLQWKHFOLQLFDOVHWWLQJ$OWKRXJKQRHYLGHQFH
VKRZVWKDWVPRNLQJFHVVDWLRQZHLJKWORVVRUDWWHQWLRQWRSV\FKRORJLFDOULVNIDFWRUV
FDQSUHYHQWWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIORZEDFNSDLQUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVWRDGGUHVVWKHVH
IDFWRUVPD\LQIOXHQFHWKHVHYHULW\RUFRXUVHRIORZEDFNSDLQGHYHORSPHQW/DKDG
0DOWHU%HUJHWDO
7HUWLDU\FDUHLVUHFRPPHQGHGIRUWKHRISDWLHQWVZKRGLGQRWEHQHILWIURP
VHFRQGDU\FDUHDQGUHPDLQV\PSWRPDWLFDQGGLVDEOHGEH\RQGVL[PRQWKVDIWHU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
87
LQMXU\)DFWRUVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKSRRUWUHDWPHQWRXWFRPHLQVHFRQGDU\FDUHLQFOXGH
QRQFRPSOLDQFHILQDQFLDOEHQHILWVSV\FKRORJLFDOGLVWUHVVDQGLQKLELWHGIXQFWLRQLQJ
3RODWLQHWDO7HUWLDU\FDUHWHQGVWRRIIHUDKLJKHUOHYHORILQWHQVLW\WKDQ
HLWKHUSULPDU\RUVHFRQGDU\FDUHDQGHIIHFWVLPSURYHPHQWVLQDVXEJRXSRIFKURQLF
SDLQSDWLHQWVWKDWVHHPVWUHDWPHQWUHVLVWDQW$WWKLVVWDJHRIWUHDWPHQWFRJQLWLYH
EHKDYLRUDOWHFKQLTXHVDUHFRPELQHGZLWKSK\VLFDODQGRFFXSDWLRQDOWKHUDS\
SURJUDPV*DURIDOR3RODWLQ,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRFRQWLQXHWUHDWPHQWEH\RQG
SULPDU\FDUHLISDWLHQWVIDLOWRLPSURYHZLWKLQWKHILUVWIHZZHHNVDIWHULQMXU\IRU
WKHUHLVDGHFUHDVHGOLNHOLKRRGRIUHWXUQLQJWRZRUNDVWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKHORZEDFN
SDLQH[SHULHQFHLQFUHDVHV
3DLQ&RQWURO7HFKQLTXHV
0RVWRIWKHWHFKQLTXHVXVHGIRUSDLQSDWLHQWVKDVEHHQHIIHFWLYHIRUDFXWHSDLQ
SDWLHQWVEXWOHVVVRIRUFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV3DLQFRQWUROWHFKQLTXHVLQFOXGH
SKDUPDFRORJLFDOVXUJLFDOSK\VLFDOWKHUDS\UHOD[DWLRQDFXSXQFWXUHDQGPHQWDO
FRSLQJWHFKQLTXHV$OWKRXJKQRVLQJOHSDLQFRQWUROWHFKQLTXHKDVEHHQFOHDUO\
HIIHFWLYHLQPRGLI\LQJFKURQLFSDLQLWVHHPVWKDWFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVSURILWIURP
SDLQPDQDJHPHQWSURJUDPV7KHILUVWSDLQPDQDJHPHQWSURJUDPZDVIRXQGHGLQ
6HDWWOHDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI:DVKLQJWRQE\-RKQ%RQLFD0'LQ7\SLFDOO\
WKHVHSURJUDPVDUHLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\HIIRUWVLQYROYLQJSK\VLFLDQVFRJQLWLYHEHKDYLRUDO
SV\FKRORJLVWVDQGSK\VLFDOWKHUDSLVWVZLWKFRQVXOWDWLRQIURPQHXURORJ\
UKHXPDWRORJ\RUWKRSHGLFVXUJHU\DQGLQWHUQDOPHGLFLQH7KHJRDORIVXFKSURJUDPV
LVWRHQDEOHSDWLHQWVWRUHGXFHWKHLUSDLQDVPXFKDVSRVVLEOHDQGOLYHPRUHDFWLYH
DQGUHZDUGLQJOLYHVHYHQLIWKHSDLQFDQQRWEHHQWLUHO\HOLPLQDWHG7RGD\WKHVHSDLQ
PDQDJHPHQWSURJUDPVDUHFXUUHQWO\VWDQGDUGLQWKH86DQGLQQRUWKHUQ(XURSHDQ
FRXQWULHV
7KHILUVWVWHSLQWKLVSURJUDPLQYROYHVWKHHYDOXDWLRQRISDLQDQGSDLQEHKDYLRUV
7\SLFDOO\VXFKHYDOXDWLRQEHJLQVZLWKDTXDOLWDWLYHDQGTXDQWLWDWLYHDVVHVVPHQWRI
WKHSDLQLQFOXGLQJLWVORFDWLRQVHQVRU\TXDOLWLHVLQWHQVLW\GXUDWLRQDVZHOODVRQVHW
DQGKLVWRU\)XQFWLRQDOVWDWXVLVWKHQDVVHVVHGZKHUHSDWLHQWVSURYLGHLQIRUPDWLRQ
DERXWWKHGHJUHHWRZKLFKWKHLUZRUNDQGIDPLO\OLYHVKDYHEHHQLPSDLUHG7UHDWPHQW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
88
JRDOVDUHEDVHGRQKRZWKHSDWLHQWKDVFRSHGZLWKWKHSDLQLQWKHSDVW,QDGGLWLRQ
PRVWSDWLHQWVDUHHYDOXDWHGIRUWKHLUHPRWLRQDODQGPHQWDOIXQFWLRQLQJ
3DLQPDQDJHPHQWSURJUDPVLQFOXGHVHYHUDOFRPPRQIHDWXUHV)LUVWWKHSDWLHQWLV
HGXFDWHGDERXWWKHQDWXUHRIWKHLUFRQGLWLRQWKHIXQFWLRQRISDLQDQGWKHYDULRXV
DVSHFWRIWKHLUOLYHVHJVRFLDOFRQWDFWVWKDWDUHDIIHFWHGE\SDLQ'LVFXVVLRQLQ
JURXSVHWWLQJVLQFOXGHVWRSLFVVXFKDVPHGLFDWLRQDQGLWVVLGHHIIHFWVDVVHUWLYHQHVV
RUVRFLDOVNLOOVWUDLQLQJGHSUHVVLRQVOHHSGLVWXUEDQFHUHOD[DWLRQWHFKQLTXHV
SRVWXUHZHLJKWPDQDJHPHQWDQGRWKHUWRSLFVUHODWHGWRWKHGDLO\PDQDJHPHQWRI
SDLQ6HFRQGSDLQPDQDJHPHQWSURJUDPVDLPWRFKDQJHPDODGDSWLYHFRJQLWLRQV
WKDWPD\DULVHLQUHVSRQVHWRFKURQLFSDLQ7\SLFDOFRJQLWLYHHUURUV%HFN
LQFOXGHFDWDVWURSKL]LQJGHYHORSLQJGLVWRUWHGQHJDWLYHSHUFHSWLRQVDERXWWKHLUSDLQ
DQGWKHLULQDELOLW\WRRYHUFRPHDQGOLYHZLWKLW
7KHUHLVVRPHHYLGHQFHWKDWFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVUHDFWPRUHDFXWHO\DQG
SV\FKRORJLFDOO\PRUHLQWHQVHO\WKDQSDWLHQWVQRWSURQHWRFKURQLFSDLQ7D\ORU
+RZHYHULWUHPDLQVXQFOHDUZKHWKHUWKHVHUHDFWLRQVDUHDFDXVHRUD
UHVSRQVHWRWKHFKURQLFSDLQH[SHULHQFH7KHVHUHDFWLRQVQHHGWREHV\VWHPDWLFDOO\
DGGUHVVHGWKURXJKFRJQLWLYHDQGEHKDYLRUDOPDQDJHPHQWWHFKQLTXHV7XUN.HUQV
DQG5RVHQEHUJ6RPHSURJUDPVH[DPLQHSDWLHQWV¶SUHIHUUHGFRSLQJVW\OHVDQG
WU\WRPDWFKSDLQWUHDWPHQWWRWKHPLQRUGHUWRPD[LPL]HWKHEHQHILWVRIWUHDWPHQW
0DQ\SDLQPDQDJHPHQWSURJUDPVLQWHUYHQHDWWKHIDPLO\OHYHOFRPELQLQJIDPLO\
WKHUDS\ZLWKRWKHULQWHUYHQWLRQV2QWKHRQHKDQGFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVRIWHQ
ZLWKGUDZIURPWKHLUIDPLOLHVEXWRQWKHRWKHUKDQGHIIRUWVE\WKHIDPLO\WREH
VXSSRUWLYHPD\LQDGYHUWHQWO\UHLQIRUFHSDLQEHKDYLRUV7XUNHWDO
7KHILQDOIHDWXUHLQYROYHVUHODSVHSUHYHQWLRQDQGIROORZXSDFWLYLWLHVVRWKDWSDWLHQWV
ZLOOQRWEDFNVOLGHRQFHWKH\DUHGLVFKDUJHGIURPWKHRXWSDWLHQWSURJUDPV1RQ
FRPSOLDQFHLVDFRPPRQSUREOHPDPRQJSDLQSDWLHQWV7XUN5XG\HVWLPDWH
WKHUHODSVHUDWHIROORZLQJLQLWLDOVXFFHVVIXOWUHDWPHQWRIFKURQLFSDLQWREH
DSSUR[LPDWHO\±
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
89
6XPPDU\3DLQPDQDJHPHQWSURJUDPVDSSHDUWREHVXFFHVVIXOLQKHOSLQJWRFRQWURO
FKURQLFSDLQ,QSDUWLFXODUEHKDYLRUDOLQWHUYHQWLRQVDUHUHJDUGHGDVLQWHJUDOWRZDUGV
UHGXFLQJUHSRUWVRISDLQDQGGLVDELOLW\3URJUDPVGHVLJQHGWRPDQDJHFKURQLFSDLQ
DFNQRZOHGJHWKHFRPSOH[LQWHUSOD\EHWZHHQSK\VLRORJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDOEHKDYLRUDO
DQGVRFLDOIDFWRUVUHSUHVHQWLQJDWUXO\ELRSV\FKRVRFLDODSSURDFKWRSDLQ
PDQDJHPHQW$VWKHLPSRUWDQFHFRPSOH[LW\DQGFRVWVRISDLQKDYHEHFRPH
LQFUHDVLQJO\FOHDUSDLQLVQRZWDNHQPRUHVHULRXVO\LQWKHPHGLFDOPDQDJHPHQWRI
SDWLHQWVDQGLVQRZUHFRJQL]HGDVDQLPSRUWDQWPHGLFDOLVVXHLQLWVRZQULJKWUDWKHU
WKDQDQLQFRQYHQLHQWV\PSWRPLWZDVRQFHUHJDUGHGWREH7XUN
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
90
/,7(5$785(5(9,(:5,6.)$&72562)&855(175(/(9$1&(
)257+,6678'<
7KH1DWLRQDO$GYLVRU\&RPPLWWHHRQ+HDOWKDQG'LVDELOLW\RI1HZ=HDODQGDVFLWHG
LQ*DWFKHO*DUGHDGHILQHGWKHIROORZLQJSV\FKRVRFLDOYDULDEOHVDVULVN
IDFWRUVIRUFKURQLFEDFNSDLQPDODGDSWLYHDWWLWXGHVDQGEHOLHIVFRQFHUQLQJEDFNSDLQ
IUHTXHQWGLVSOD\RISDLQEHKDYLRUVUHLQIRUFHPHQWRISDLQEHKDYLRUVE\IDPLO\
PHPEHUVKHLJKWHQHGHPRWLRQDOUHDFWLYLW\ODFNRIVRFLDOVXSSRUWMREGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ
DQGFRPSHQVDWLRQLVVXHV:LWKRXWDGRXEWWKHVHSV\FKRVRFLDOLVVXHVDVZHOODV
JHQHWLFVDQGELRPHFKDQLFVDUHRILPSRUWDQFHDQGGHVHUYHUHVHDUFKDWWHQWLRQ
1HYHUWKHOHVVWKLVSDSHUFDQQRWDGGUHVVDOODUHDVWKDWDUHLQWHUHVWLQJDQGWKHUHIRUH
IRFXVHVRQWKHIROORZLQJULVNIDFWRUVSDLQFKURQLFLW\SDLQLQWHQVLW\KLJKHUDJHORZHU
HGXFDWLRQIHPDOHJHQGHUQRSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHKDELWVVPRNLQJKDELWVGHSUHVVLRQ
MREGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGUHSRUWHGFRPRUELGLWLHV
7UDQVLWLRQWR&KURQLFLW\
3HUURWGHILQHGULVNIDFWRUVWKDWIDYRUWKHWUDQVLWLRQWRFKURQLFLW\RIORZEDFN
SDLQ7KHVHIDFWRUVLQFOXGHFRPRUELGLW\WKHVRFLDOFLUFOHRIWKHSDWLHQWDQGIDPLO\
VWDWXVKHDOWKVWDWXVSURIHVVLRQDQGLQWHUYDOEHIRUHPHGLFDOWUHDWPHQW)RUVXUJHU\
RXWFRPHVSURIHVVLRQDOVWDWXVDQGDJHDSSHDUWREHPRVWLPSRUWDQW,QWHUHVWLQJO\
WKHLQLWLDOKDQGLFDSDQGWKHW\SHRIPDQDJHPHQWZHUHRIOLWWOHLPSRUWDQFH3HUURW
HPSKDVL]HGWKDWWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIERWKPHGLFDODQGSV\FKRVRFLDO
DSSURDFKHVUHPDLQWREHHYDOXDWHGDQGGHILQHGLQSURVSHFWLYHVWXGLHV
$IROORZXSVWXG\ZDVUXQRQDFRKRUWRISDWLHQWVDJHGIRUPWRZKR
FRQVXOWHGZLWKWKHLUJHQHUDOSUDFWLWLRQHUVDIWHUEDFNSDLQRQVHW0LHGHPD&KRUXV
:HYHUVDQGYDQGHU/LQGHQFROOHFWHGGDWDERWKUHWURVSHFWLYHO\V\PSWRPV
PHGLFDOWUHDWPHQWUHFHLYHGDQGSURVSHFWLYHO\KHDOWKRXWFRPHVTXDOLW\RIOLIH
VFRUHVDQGZRUNIDFWRUV5HVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDWKLJKSDLQLQWHQVLW\DQGVLFNOHDYH
ZHUHSRVLWLYHO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFKURQLFLW\
3LQFXV%XUWRQ9RJHODQG)LHOGSURSRVHGWKDWDOWKRXJKWKHELRSV\FKRVRFLDO
PRGHOLVJHQHUDOO\DFFHSWHGLQORZEDFNSDLQWKHXQLTXHFRQWULEXWLRQRI
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
91
SV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVLQWKHWUDQVLWLRQIURPDQDFXWHSUHVHQWDWLRQWRFKURQLFLW\KDV
QRWEHHQULJRURXVO\DVVHVVHG$QDO\VHVEDVHGRQWZHQW\ILYHSXEOLFDWLRQVVXJJHVW
WKDWSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVLHGLVWUHVVGHSUHVVLYHPRRGDQGVRPDWL]DWLRQDUH
LPSOLFDWHGLQWKHWUDQVLWLRQWRFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQ
6DQGHUVSUHVHQWVDFOHDUUHYLHZRIWKHNQRZQDQGHPSLULFDOO\VXSSRUWHGULVN
IDFWRUVIRUFKURQLFGLVDEOLQJGHILQHGDVIDLOXUHWRUHWXUQWRZRUNORZEDFNSDLQ
7KHVHULVNIDFWRUVDUH0LQQHVRWD0XOWLSKDVLF3HUVRQDOLW\,QYHQWRU\003,6FDOH
HOHYDWLRQGHSUHVVLRQORZDFWLYLW\KLJKSDLQEHKDYLRUQHJDWLYH
EHOLHIVIHDURISDLQ7KH003,6FDOHIRFXVHVRQSDWLHQWV¶UHSRUWVRIVHQVRU\RU
PRWRUV\PSWRPVGHQLDORISUREOHPVRUVRFLDODQ[LHW\DQGIHHOLQJVRIXQHDVLQHVV,W
KDVQRW\HWEHHQHVWDEOLVKHGZKLFKRIWKHVHIDFWRUVLVLQYROYHGLQSUHGLFWLQJGLVDEOLQJ
ORZEDFNSDLQ6DQGHUV$SRVVLEOHFRQQHFWLRQZLWKWKHFRQVWUXFW1HXURWLFLVP
KDVEHHQSURSRVHG'HSUHVVLRQLVDUHOHYDQWULVNIDFWRUZKHQSDWLHQWVH[KLELW
FOLQLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWOHYHOVRIPRRGGLVWXUEDQFH7KHORZDFWLYLW\KLJKSDLQEHKDYLRU
IDFWRULVH[KLELWHGE\SDWLHQWVZKRUHSRUWVHGHQWDU\OLIHVW\OHVORZSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVH
DQGRUH[KLELWVLJQLILFDQWRYHUWSDLQEHKDYLRUVFI+DVHQEULQJVXFKDV
OLPSLQJYHUEDOO\FRPSODLQLQJKROGLQJRUUXEELQJWKHDIIHFWHGDUHDDQG
GHPRQVWUDWLQJH[WUHPHUHDFWLRQVGXULQJSK\VLFDOH[DPLQDWLRQ)LQDOO\QHJDWLYH
EHOLHIVRUIHDUVDERXWSDLQUHIHUVWRSDWLHQWV¶EHOLHIVDERXWWKHLUSDLQWKDWLWLV
KDUPIXOGLVDEOLQJRURXWRIWKHLUFRQWURORUWKDWLQFUHDVLQJDFWLYLW\HJE\
UHWXUQLQJWRZRUNZRXOGLQFUHDVHWKHLUSDLQ6DQGHU
2WKHUULVNIDFWRUVDOORIZKLFKKDYHUHFHLYHGFRQVLGHUDEOHUHVHDUFKDWWHQWLRQLQFOXGH
MREGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQKHDY\SK\VLFDOODERUDJHROGHUWKDQVHYHUHSV\FKRORJLFDO
VWUHVVRUDEXVHVXEMHFWLYHSDLQLQWHQVLW\VXEVWDQFHDEXVHDQGFRPSHQVDWLRQDQG
XQHPSOR\PHQWEHQHILWV6DQGHUV)RUWKLVVWXG\VXEMHFWLYHSDLQLQWHQVLW\LVRI
SDUWLFXODULQWHUHVW7KHIDFWRUVWKDWPRVWFRPPRQO\GHVFULEHVSDWLHQWVZKR
H[SHULHQFHKLJKOHYHOVRIVXEMHFWLYHSDLQLQWHQVLW\GXULQJWKHDFXWHSKDVHDSSHDUWR
KDYHDVLJQLILFDQWO\LQFUHDVHGULVNIRUGHYHORSLQJFKURQLFGLVDEOLQJORZEDFNSDLQ
'ZRUNLQ,IDFDXVHDQGHIIHFWUHODWLRQVKLSFDQEHHVWDEOLVKHGEHWZHHQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
92
VXEMHFWLYHSDLQLQWHQVLW\DQGFKURQLFGLVDEOLQJEDFNSDLQWKHQLWZRXOGEHFULWLFDOWR
LQLWLDWHDJJUHVVLYHDSSURDFKHVWRPDQDJLQJDFXWHORZEDFNSDLQ6DQGHU
*DWFKHOGHVFULEHVWKHWUDQVLWLRQRIDFXWHWRFKURQLFSDLQDV³DOD\HULQJRI
EHKDYLRUDOSV\FKRORJLFDOSUREOHPVRYHUWKHRULJLQDOQRFLFHSWLRQRIWKHSDLQ
H[SHULHQFHLWVHOI´*DWFKHOKDVSURSRVHGDVWDJHPRGHOH[SODLQLQJWKH
SURJUHVVLRQ,Q6WDJHWKHDFXWHSKDVHWKHSDWLHQWV¶QDWXUDOUHVSRQVHWRWKHLQMXU\
DUHSUHGRPLQDQW,IWKHSDLQFRQWLQXHVEH\RQGWKHQRUPDOKHDOLQJSHULRG
DSSUR[LPDWHO\WRPRQWKVWKHQEHKDYLRUDORUSV\FKRORJLFDOUHDFWLRQVHPHUJH
6WDJHLVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\LQFUHDVHGGLVWUHVVDQJHUGHSUHVVLRQRUOHDUQHG
KHOSOHVVQHVVDQGVRPDWL]DWLRQ*DWFKHOSURSRVHGWKDWLQWKLVVWDJHWKH
LQGLYLGXDOV¶SUHH[LVWLQJSHUVRQDOLW\DQGSV\FKRORJLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVLQDGGLWLRQWR
WKHLUFXUUHQWVRFLRHFRQRPLFDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQVFRQWULEXWHODUJHO\WRWKH
IRUPRIWKHGHYHORSHGSUREOHP,Q6WDJHWKHSDWLHQWVEHJLQWRDGRSWWKHVLFNUROH
RIWHQUHOLHYHGRIWKHLUQRUPDOUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVVRFLDOREOLJDWLRQVDQGFRPSHQVDWLRQ
SD\PHQWV,QDGGLWLRQWKHSK\VLFDOGHFRQGLWLRQLQJH[DFHUEDWHVWKHVLWXDWLRQ
3DLQ,QWHQVLW\
/LQWRQ+HOOVLQJDQG%U\QJHOVVRQLQYHVWLJDWHGWKHDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQ
SV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVSK\VLFDOIXQFWLRQDQGPRGHUDWHOHYHOVRIVSLQDOSDLQ'DWD
IURPQ LQGLYLGXDOVUHSRUWLQJPRGHUDWHSDLQIURPDJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQVXUYH\
ZHUHDQDO\]HGWKURXJKDVHULHVRIGLVFULPLQDQWDQDO\VHV5HVXOWVVKRZHGWKDW
GLVWUHVVSHUFHLYHGZRUNORDGSK\VLFDOIXQFWLRQVH[XDODEXVHDQGFDWDVWURSKL]LQJ
ZHUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKPRGHUDWHSDLQ
5HVHDUFKVXJJHVWVWKDWKLJKOHYHOVRISDLQDUHLQGLFDWLYHRIDFKURQLFDQGGLVDEOLQJ
LQMXU\*DWFKHO*DUGHD*DWFKHO3RODWLQDQG0D\HULQDSURVSHFWLYH
VWXG\IROORZHGDFXWHORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVRYHURQH\HDU5HVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDW
KLJKOHYHOVRIVHOIUHSRUWHGSDLQDQGGLVDELOLW\DQGHOHYDWHGVFRUHVRQWKH003,
+\VWHULD6FDOH6FDOHZHUHOHVVOLNHO\WRKDYHUHWXUQHGWRZRUNDIWHURQH\HDU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
93
3DLQLQWHQVLW\ZDVIRXQGWREHDQLPSRUWDQWRXWFRPHYDULDEOHLQDIROORZXSVWXG\E\
9RQ.RUII$VDPSOHRISULPDU\FDUHEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVZHUHHYDOXDWHG
\HDUDIWHUWKHLQLWLDOYLVLWWRWKHGRFWRU7KHPRVWFOLQLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ
PHDVXUHVZHUHOHYHOVRISDLQLQWHQVLW\SDLQUHODWHGGLVDELOLW\DQGSDLQSHUVLVWHQFH
$OVRLQGLFDWLYHRISRRUWUHDWPHQWUHVSRQVHZHUHQXPEHURIGD\VLQSDLQORZHU
HGXFDWLRQOHYHODQGIHPDOHJHQGHU
)H\HU:LOOLDPVRQDQG0DQGU\N'H6LOYDUHSRUWHGWKDWSDWLHQWVQ DWWHQGLQJDSDLQPDQDJHPHQWFOLQLFVKRZHGSV\FKRORJLFDOGLVWXUEDQFHZKLOHEOXH
FROODUZRUNHUVQ DQGZKLWHFROODUZRUNHUVQ GLGQRW)XUWKHU
GLVDELOLW\UHVXOWLQJIURPORZEDFNSDLQZDVSRVLWLYHO\DQGOLQHDUO\UHODWHGWRVHYHULW\
RISDLQIRUVXEMHFWVGUDZQIURPWKHZRUNLQJJURXSVLUUHVSHFWLYHRISV\FKRORJLFDO
GLVWXUEDQFH:RUNGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQZDVQRWUHODWHGWRWKHSUHVHQFHRIDQGGLGQRW
DFFRXQWIRUGLVDELOLW\UHVXOWLQJIURPORZEDFNSDLQLQZRUNLQJVXEMHFWV
0HUFDGRDQGFROOHDJXHVDQDO\]HGGDWDIURP1 LQGLYLGXDOVIURPWKH
JHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQDQGIRXQGWKURXJKUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVWKDWSDVVLYHFRSLQJZDV
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKJUHDWHUSDLQVHYHULW\EHLQJPDUULHGGHSUHVVLRQDQGSRRUJHQHUDO
KHDOWK,QFRQWUDVWDFWLYHFRSLQJZDVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKIHPDOHJHQGHUKLJKHU
HGXFDWLRQOHVVGHSUHVVLRQJRRGKHDOWKDQGIUHTXHQWH[HUFLVH7KHLUPRVW
LQWHUHVWLQJILQGLQJZDVWKHVWURQJLQGHSHQGHQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQLQFUHDVHGSDLQ
VHYHULW\DQGWKHJUHDWHUXVHRISDVVLYHVWUDWHJLHVDQGWKHODFNRIDUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQSDLQVHYHULW\DQGDFWLYHFRSLQJ
$JH
5HVHDUFKVXJJHVWWKDWDJHRYHULQFUHDVHVWKHULVNRIFKURQLFLW\IRUSDWLHQWV
VXIIHULQJIURPEDFNVSUDLQDVFLWHGLQ*DWFKHO*HUGHD$OVRFRPSDUH
6DQGHUVDERYH&R[VWDWHGWKDWGHJHQHUDWLRQRUDUWKURVLVLVUDUHO\
IRXQGLQSDWLHQWVXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHEXWLWFDQEHFOLQLFDOO\GRFXPHQWHGPRUH
IUHTXHQWO\DQGWKHFDVHVDUHPRUHVHYHUHDVSDWLHQWVDJH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
94
6RFLRHFRQRPLF6WDWXVDQG(GXFDWLRQ
,QWKH%ULWLVKFRPPXQLW\EDFNSDLQVHOIUHSRUWVLVPRUHOLNHO\WREHUHSRUWHGE\
ZRPHQRIORZLQFRPHDQGORZHGXFDWLRQDOTXDOLILFDWLRQVPHQIURPWKHXQVNLOOHG
PDQXDOODERUIRUFHDOVRUHSRUWPRUHEDFNSDLQ&URIW5LJE\
,QDUHYLHZDUWLFOHH[DPLQLQJDUWLFOHVIURP'LRQQHDQGFROOHDJXHV
FRQFOXGHWKDWWKHFXUUHQWDYDLODEOHHYLGHQFHSRLQWVLQGLUHFWO\WRDVWURQJHU
DVVRFLDWLRQRIORZHGXFDWLRQZLWKORQJHUGXUDWLRQDQGRUKLJKHUUHFXUUHQFHRIEDFN
SDLQWKDQWRDQDVVRFLDWLRQZLWKRQVHW0HFKDQLVPVWKDWPD\H[SODLQWKHVH
DVVRFLDWLRQVLQFOXGHYDULDWLRQVLQEHKDYLRUDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDOULVNIDFWRUVHJ
KD]DUGRXVOLYLQJHQYLURQPHQWVPRNLQJREHVLW\GLIIHUHQFHVLQRFFXSDWLRQDOIDFWRUV
HJKHDY\PDQXDOODERUMREGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQFRPSURPLVHG³KHDOWKVWRFN´HJ
VPDOODGXOWYHUWHEUDOFDQDODPRQJVXEMHFWVZLWKORZHUHGXFDWLRQDVDPDUNHURIHDUO\
LPSDLUPHQWRIJURZWKGLIIHUHQFHVLQDFFHVVWRDQGXWLOL]DWLRQRIKHDOWKVHUYLFHVDQG
DGDSWDWLRQWRVWUHVV
*HQGHU
3OHDVHUHIHUWRWKHVHFWLRQHQWLWOHG³7KH5ROHRI*HQGHUDQG)DPLO\´DERYH
3K\VLFDO([HUFLVH+DELWV
3K\VLFDOH[HUFLVHLVJHQHUDOO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKEHWWHUKHDOWKDQGSHUVRQVZKRH[HUFLVH
DUHOHVVRIWHQRYHUZHLJKWDUHOHVVRIWHQVLFNDQGOLYHORQJHUWKDQWKRVHZKRGRQRW
H[HUFLVH6FKZDU]HU3K\VLFDOILWQHVVQRWRQO\HIIHFWVORQJHYLW\EXWDOVRWKH
TXDOLW\RIOLIHDFWLYHLQGLYLGXDOVVXIIHUOHVVRIWHQIURPFKURQLFSDLQLQFOXGLQJFKURQLF
EDFNSDLQDQGVKRZEHWWHUJHQHUDOKHDOWK6FKZDU]HU7KHLQIOXHQFHRI
SK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHRQFRURQDU\KHDUWGLVHDVHLVWKHEHVWUHVHDUFKHGILHOG6FKZDU]HU
DQGH[HUFLVHKDVVKRZQSRVLWLYHHIIHFWVLQERWKSK\VLRORJLFDODQGSV\FKRORJLFDO
IXQFWLRQLQJRIFRURQDU\SURQHSDWLHQWVDVFLWHGLQ7D\ORU7KHHIIHFWRI
SK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHRQLQIHFWLRQVFDQFHUDQGFKURQLFSDLQLVOHVVZHOOUHVHDUFKHG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
95
6PRNLQJ+DELWV
&LJDUHWWHVPRNHUVKDYHDQLQFUHDVHGULVNRIORZEDFNSDLQZKLFKPD\EHFDXVHGIRU
H[DPSOHE\GLVFGHJHQHUDWLRQDQGVSLQDOLQVWDELOLW\)RJHOKROPDQG$OKR
K\SRWKHVL]HWKDWWKHKLJKVHUXPSURWHRO\WLFDFWLYLW\RIFLJDUHWWHVPRNHUVDFFHVVHVD
SUHYLRXVO\GHJHQHUDWHGQHRYDVFXODUL]HGGLVFDQGVSHHGVXSWKHGHJHQHUDWLYH
SURFHVV7KHLQFUHDVHSURWHRO\WLFDFWLYLW\PD\DOVRZHDNHQWKHVSLQDOOLJDPHQWV
UHVXOWLQJLQVSLQDOLQVWDELOLW\
%UDJHDQG%MHUNHGDOH[DPLQHGWKHDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQVPRNLQJDQG
PXVFXORVNHOHWDOSDLQLQ1RUZHJLDQPDOHVDQGIHPDOHVDJHG\HDUV
6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VHVVKRZHGWKDWFXUUHQWVPRNLQJZDVLQGHSHQGHQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWK
PXVFXORVNHOHWDOSDLQHJEDFNSDLQDIWHUFRQWUROOLQJIRUJHQGHUDJHFRPRUELGLW\
PHQWDOGLVWUHVVOLIHVW\OHIDFWRUVDQGRFFXSDWLRQUHODWHGIDFWRUV
'HSUHVVLRQ
-RXNDPDDSURSRVHGWKDWGHSUHVVLRQLQORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVLVDW\SLFDO
PHDQLQJWKDWORZEDFNSDLQVXIIHUHUVKDYHVRPHV\PSWRPVRIGHSUHVVLRQEXWQRW
HQRXJKWRIXOILOOWKHGLDJQRVWLFFULWHULDIRUDQ\W\SHRIGHSUHVVLRQGHILQHGLQWKH'60
,96RPHRIWKHVHV\PSWRPVLQFOXGHFU\LQJVSHOOVKRSHOHVVQHVVLUULWDELOLW\IHHOLQJRI
LQDGHTXDF\GLPLQLVKHGVHOIHVWHHP2QHW\SHRIDW\SLFDOGHSUHVVLRQLVPDVNHG
GHSUHVVLRQPHDQLQJWKDWDSDWLHQWKDVVRPHV\PSWRPVRIGHSUHVVLRQEXWQRW
GHSUHVVHGPRRG$QRWKHUW\SHRIDW\SLFDOGHSUHVVLRQLVDOH[LWK\PLDPHDQLQJ³QR
ZRUGVIRUIHHOLQJV´,WUHIHUVWRDJURXSRISDWLHQWVZKRKDYHGLIILFXOW\LQ
FRPPXQLFDWLQJHPRWLRQUDUHO\FU\DQGWHQGWRIRFXVVHOIUHSRUWVRQSK\VLFDO
V\PSWRPVDQGWULYLDOHQYLURQPHQWDOGHWDLOV$FFRUGLQJWR-RXNDPDDFKURQLF
SDLQFDQEHGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHFRPSRQHQWVVRPDWLFGHSUHVVLYHDQGDUROH
FRPSRQHQW7KHWKHUDSHXWLFSURFHGXUHVVKRXOGEHGHYLVHGLQGLYLGXDOO\WRDFFRXQWIRU
WKHGRPLQDQFHRIWKHVHWKUHHDVSHFWV
(SNHUDQG%ORFNUHYLHZHGWKHPDMRUSV\FKRVRFLDOULVNIDFWRUVLPSDFWLQJ
UHFRYHU\IURPVSLQHVXUJHU\$PRQJRWKHUIDFWRUVGHSUHVVLRQFDQDIIHFWVSLQH
VXUJHU\RXWFRPH,QGLYLGXDOVZLWKGHSUHVVLRQWHQGWRIRFXVRQQHJDWLYHHYHQWVWR
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
96
KDYHDORZWKUHVKROGIRULQGXFHGSDLQDQGWHQGWRUHSRUWJUHDWHUIXQFWLRQDO
LPSDLUPHQW7KHUHIRUHLWLVQRWVXUSULVLQJWRILQGWKDWKLJKHUOHYHOVRIGHSUHVVLRQDUH
IUHTXHQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKSRRUVXUJLFDORXWFRPHV(SNHUDQG%ORFNIXUWKHU
HPSKDVL]HWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIH[DPLQLQJFKURQLFLW\RIWKHGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPVLQWKH
DVVHVVPHQWRIGHSUHVVLRQ)RULQVWDQFHVRPHGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPVVXFKDVVOHHS
GLVWXUEDQFHFRQFHQWUDWLRQSUREOHPVDQGZHLJKWFKDQJHPD\EHDGLUHFWUHVXOWRI
WKHH[SHULHQFHRIFRQWLQXHGSDLQRUSK\VLFDOOLPLWDWLRQVDQGWKHUHIRUHOHVVLPSRUWDQW
LQSUHGLFWLQJUHVSRQVHWRVXUJLFDORXWFRPH$OWHUQDWLYHO\FKURQLFGHSUHVVLRQPD\EH
PRUHSUHGLFWLYHRIDSRRUUHVSRQVHWRDQ\VXUJLFDOSURFHGXUHDLPHGDWSDLQUHOLHI
-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
7KHUHDSSHDUVWREHJHQHUDODJUHHPHQWDPRQJUHVHDUFKHUVDQGFOLQLFLDQVWKDW
H[SRVXUHWRDFRPELQDWLRQRIRFFXSDWLRQDOULVNIDFWRUVPD\UHQGHUFHUWDLQLQGLYLGXDOV
PRUHVXVFHSWLEOHWRPXVNRVNHOHWDOSDLQKRZHYHUQRVLQJOHFDXVDOUHODWLRQVKLSLV
UHVSRQVLEOHIRULW*DURIDOR3RODWLQSURSRVHWKDWSV\FKRORJLFDODQGVRFLDO
IDFWRUVLPSDFWWKHH[SUHVVLRQRISDLQ
.UDXVHLQYHVWLJDWHGWKHUROHRISV\FKRVRFLDOMREIDFWRUVIRUSUHYDOHQFHRIEDFN
DQGQHFNSDLQDIWHUWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHUROHRIELRPHFKDQLFDOIDFWRUVLQ1 6DQ)UDQFLVFREXVGULYHUV$WWKHILYH\HDUIROORZXSEDFNDQGQHFNSDLQULVN
IDFWRUVZHUHIRXQGWREHIHPDOHVH[KHLJKWZHLJKW\HDUVRIGULYLQJZHHNO\KRXUV
RIGULYLQJEUHDNWLPHYHKLFOHW\SHHUJRQRPLFSUREOHPVIUHTXHQF\RIMRESUREOHPV
SV\FKRORJLFDOGHPDQGVMREVWUDLQMREGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGORZVXSHUYLVRUVXSSRUW
%DVHGRQDUHYLHZRISURVSHFWLYHVWXGLHV/LQWRQFRQFOXGHVWKDWWKHUHLVD
FOHDUDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQSV\FKRORJLFDOYDULDEOHVDQGIXWXUHEDFNSDLQ7KHUHZDV
VWURQJHYLGHQFHWKDWMREVDWLVIDFWLRQPRQRWRQRXVWDVNVZRUNUHODWLRQVGHPDQGV
VWUHVVDQGSHUFHLYHGDELOLW\WRZRUNZHUHUHODWHGWRIXWXUHEDFNSDLQSUREOHPV
)XUWKHUWKHUHVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDWHOLPLQDWLQJSV\FKRVRFLDOULVNIDFWRUVDWZRUNFRXOG
UHGXFHWKHQXPEHURIFDVHVRIEDFNSDLQE\DVPXFKDV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
97
ZRUNHUVLQYROYHGLQKHDY\SK\VLFDOZRUNSDUWLFLSDWHGLQRQHSURVSHFWLYHVWXG\
H[DPLQLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSK\VLFDODQGSV\FKRORJLFDOULVNIDFWRUV'DWD
FROOHFWHGDWEDVHOLQHDQGLQWKHPRQWKIROORZXSVKRZHGWKDWWKHKLVWRU\RIEDFN
SDLQZDVWKHEHVWSUHGLFWRUIRUWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIDQHZHSLVRGHRIEDFNSDLQDQG
WKDWORZMREVDWLVIDFWLRQZDVDOVRDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDQLQFUHDVHGULVNIRUWKH
RFFXUUHQFHRIEDFNSDLQGXULQJIROORZXS
.HUUDQGFROOHDJXHVIRXQGLQDSRSXODWLRQRIEDFNSDLQVXIIHUHUVWKDWVHOI
UHSRUWHGULVNIDFWRUVLQFOXGHDSK\VLFDOO\GHPDQGLQJMRESRRUZRUNSODFHVRFLDO
HQYLURQPHQWDQGLQFRQVLVWHQF\EHWZHHQMREDQGHGXFDWLRQOHYHO&RQWUDU\WR
SUHYLRXVVWXGLHVMREVDWLVIDFWLRQDQGEHWWHUFRZRUNHUVXSSRUWVKRZHGPRGHVW
DVVRFLDWLRQVZLWKORZEDFNSDLQ3K\VLFDOULVNIDFWRUVLQFOXGHGSHDNOXPEDUVKHDU
IRUFHSHDNORDGKDQGOHGDQGFXPXODWLYHOXPEDUGLVFFRPSUHVVLRQ)XUWKHUWKH\
SURSRVHGWKDWVSHFLILFSK\VLFDODQGSV\FKRVRFLDOGHPDQGVRIZRUNFDQEHSUHFLVHO\
LGHQWLILHGDVLQGHSHQGHQWULVNIDFWRUVIRUORZEDFNSDLQ
&RPRUELGLWLHV
6RPDWLF6\PSWRPV,QDFRPSDULVRQVWXG\EHWZHHQFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV
Q DQGKHDOWKFRQWUROVQ %DFRQDQGFROOHDJXHVIRXQGWKDW
DOPRVWRIWKHFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHGDOLIHWLPHKLVWRU\RIRUPRUH
VRPDWLFV\PSWRPVFRPSDUHGWRRQO\RIWKHFRQWUROV,QWKHOHVVV\PSWRPDWLF
UDQJHVFKURQLFEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVJHQHUDOO\UHSRUWHGPRUHV\PSWRPVWKDQFRQWUROV
0DMRUGHSUHVVLRQDQGDOFRKROGHSHQGHQFHZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWK
LQFUHDVHGVHYHULW\RIVRPDWL]LDWLRQ
1 SDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQVHOHFWHGIRUVXUJHU\ZHUHPDWFKHGE\
DJHDQGJHQGHULQDUDQGRPVDPSOHRIWKH6ZHGLVKJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ+lJJ
)ULW]HOO1RUGZDOOWKH6ZHGLVK/XPEDU6SLQH6WXG\*URXSDQDO\]HGGDWDLQ
ZKLFKWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQVDPSOHZDVGLYLGHGLQWRWZRVXEJURXSVVXEMHFWVZLWK
DQGWKRVHZLWKRXWEDFNSDLQ5HVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWVXUJLFDOFDQGLGDWHVZLWKFKURQLF
ORZEDFNSDLQGLIIHUHGVLJQLILFDQWO\IURPWKHFRQWUROVXEMHFWVZLWKRXWEDFNSDLQE\
GHPRQVWUDWLQJPRUHJHQHUDOPRUELGLW\VPRNLQJDQGGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPVDVZHOO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
98
DVVHOIDVVHVVHGZRUNORDG+RZHYHUVXUJLFDOFDQGLGDWHVGLGQRWGLIIHUIURPWKH
FRQWUROVXEMHFWVZLWKEDFNSDLQLQWKHVHUHVSHFWV,QDPXOWLSOHORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQ
DQDO\VLVSK\VLFDOGLVDELOLW\ZDVWKHRQO\YDULDEOHWKDWLQGHSHQGHQWO\GLVFULPLQDWHG
EHWZHHQDOOWKUHHJURXSV
'LDEHWHV0REEV1HZFRPEHDQG1DGDQDDQDO\]HGPHGLFDOUHFRUGVRI
SDWLHQWVDQGIRXQGZKRUHFHLYHGDOXPEDUGLVFHFWRP\KDGDSUHRSHUDWLYH
GLDJQRVLVRIGLDEHWHV$WWKHVHYHQ\HDUIROORZXSWKHVHSDWLHQWVZHUHPDWFKHGZLWK
QRQGLDEHWLFFRQWUROVEDVHGRQDJHVH[DQGVLPLODURSHUDWLYHDSSURDFK3RVW
RSHUDWLYHUHVXOWVZHUHSRVLWLYHJRRGWRH[FHOOHQWIRUQ RIWKHFRQWURO
SDWLHQWVDQGQ IRUWKHGLDEHWLFSDWLHQWVRIWKHGLDEHWLFSDWLHQWV
KDGDQRWKHURSHUDWLRQFRPSDUHGWRRIWKHFRQWUROV
+HDUWEXUQ$VWKPD8OFHU;XDQ.LUFKGRHUIHU%R\HUDQG1RUZRRGSURSRVHG
WKDWFRH[LVWLQJGLVHDVHVPD\KDYHXQIRUHVHHQ\HWFOLQLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWVRQD
SDWLHQW¶VZHOOEHLQJ7KH\DVVHVVHGWKHHIIHFWVRIFRPRUELGLW\RQWKHUHVXOWVRI
4XDOLW\RI/LIHPHDVXUHVWKURXJKDQDQDO\VLVRIORQJLWXGLQDOGDWDIURPWKUHHGRXEOH
PDVNHGUDQGRPL]HGSODFHERFRQWUROOHGFOLQLFDOWULDOVGHDOLQJZLWKKHDUWEXUQ
DVWKPDDQGXOFHU3DWLHQWVZHUHDVVLJQHGWRVXEJURXSVE\FRPRUELGLW\VWDWXV
*URXS QRFRPRUELGGLVHDVHVDQG*URXS SULQFLSDOGLVHDVHRIKHDUWEXUQ
DVWKPDRUXOFHUZLWKFRPRUELGLWLHVRIFKURQLFREVWUXFWLYHSXOPRQDU\GLVHDVH
DVWKPDRUFKURQLFEURQFKLWLVK\SHUWHQVLRQPLJUDLQHFRURQDU\DUWHU\GLVHDVHRU
YDULFRVHYHLQVFKURQLFJDVWURLQWHVWLQDOFRQGLWLRQVDUWKULWLVRUEDFNSDLQGLDEHWHVRU
GHSUHVVLRQ0XOWLYDULDWHDQDO\VHVRIFRYDULDQFHZHUHUXQDQGWKHUHVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDW
FRPRUELGFRQGLWLRQVVLJQLILFDQWO\DQGH[WHQVLYHO\DIIHFWSDWLHQWV¶VFRUHVRQJHQHULF
4XDOLW\RI/LIHVFDOHV7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHWKUHHWULDOSRSXODWLRQV
ZHUHDUWKULWLVRUEDFNSDLQDQGGHSUHVVLRQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
99
$,02)7+(678'<
7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVSDSHULVWRH[DPLQHVRPHFRUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQELRSV\FKRVRFLDO
IDFWRUVDQGORZEDFNSDLQ'XHWRWKHQXPEHURILQWHUHVWLQJYDULDEOHVGLVFXVVHG
DERYHWKLVSDSHUIRFXVHVRQDIHZDQGWKH\DUH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHGHSUHVVLRQ
MREVDWLVIDFWLRQDJHJHQGHUHGXFDWLRQVPRNLQJDQGSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHDQGWKHLU
UHODWLRQVKLSWRSDLQGXUDWLRQFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\RIWKHORZEDFNSDLQ
H[SHULHQFH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO0RGHO
6LQFHWKHELRORJLFDOPRGHODORQHFDQQRWH[SODLQZK\VRPHSDWLHQWVZLWKREYLRXV
SDWKRORJLFDODQDWRPLFDOILQGLQJVH[SHULHQFHOLWWOHSDLQDQGRWKHUSDWLHQWVZLWK
VHHPLQJO\QRUPDODQDWRPLFDOVWUXFWXUHVH[SHULHQFHPRUHLQWHQVLYHSDLQUHVHDUFKHUV
KDYHWXUQHGWKHLUDWWHQWLRQWRZDUGVSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVVXFKDVSHUVRQDOLW\
GHSUHVVLRQGDLO\VWUHVVDQGOLIHHYHQWVDQGWRZDUGVVRFLDOIDFWRUVVXFKDVSK\VLFDO
VWUDLQOHQJWKRILOOQHVVDQGHGXFDWLRQLQDQDWWHPSWWRXQGHUVWDQGFKURQLFEDFN
SDLQ,QDFFRUGDQFHZLWKDKROLVWLFDSSURDFKWRKHDOWKWKHSKHQRPHQRQORZEDFN
SDLQZLOOEHH[DPLQHGLQWKLVVWXG\IURPDELRSV\FKRVRFLDOSHUVSHFWLYH
7KHWHUPELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOLPSOLHVDFRPSOH[UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFDXVHDQG
HIIHFW7KLVFRPSOLFDWHGDVVRFLDWLRQPD\EHEHVWH[SUHVVHGLQWHUPVRIULVNDQG
SURWHFWLYHIDFWRUV5LVNIDFWRUVDUHJHQHUDOO\FRQVLGHUHGWREHLQIOXHQFHVRQDSHUVRQ
WKDWLQFUHDVHWKHSUREDELOLW\RIEHFRPLQJLOOLQFRPSDULVRQWRVRPHRQHQRWEHLQJ
H[SRVHGWRWKHVHLQIOXHQFHV%ORKPNH7\SLFDOO\DSDUWLFXODULQIOXHQFH
EHFRPHVDULVNIDFWRUZKHQLWUHDFKHVDFHUWDLQOHYHO)RUH[DPSOHEORRGFKROHVWHURO
OHYHOVRYHUDUHWKRXJKWWRSURPRWHDUWHULRVFOHURVLV+\SRWKHWLFDOO\EDVHGXSRQ
WKHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOPRGHOWKHIROORZLQJULVNIDFWRUVIRUORZEDFNSDLQFRXOGEH
FRQVLGHUHG
•
ELRORJLFDOULVNIDFWRUVLQFOXGHPHFKDQLFDOFDXVHVVXFKDVOXPEDUPXVFOHVLQMXUHG
E\PRYHPHQWRURYHUXVHRUVSRQG\OROLVWKHVLVVORZVXEOX[DWLRQRIWKHSRVWHULRU
IDFHWVDQGYDVFXODURUKHPDWRORJLFFDXVHVVXFKDVDUXSWXUHGGLVFRU
GHJHQHUDWLRQ$JHDQGJHQGHUDUHDOVRLPSRUWDQWELRORJLFDOYDULDEOHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
•
100
SV\FKRORJLFDOULVNIDFWRUVLQFOXGHGHSUHVVLRQZKLFKFDQERWKEHWKHUHVXOWRISDLQ
DQGDOVRFDQZRUVHQWKHSHUFHSWLRQRISDLQ'HSUHVVLRQLVFRUUHODWHGZLWKD
KHLJKWHQHGULVNRIQHZRQVHWEDFNSDLQ0DQQLRQ'RODQ$GDPVDQG
DOVRRIQHZHSLVRGHVRIEDFNSDLQ&URIW3DSDJHRUJLRXV)HUUVHWDO
+LJKHUVFRUHVREWDLQHGRQGHSUHVVLRQVFDOHVLHVXPVFRUHVDERYHDFHUWDLQ
³FXWRII´SRLQWFRXOGUHSUHVHQWDQHTXLYDOHQWWRWKHFKROHVWHUROH[DPSOHDERYH
$QRWKHUSRWHQWLDOO\LPSRUWDQWSV\FKRORJLFDOULVNIDFWRUPD\EHWKHSV\FKRORJLFDO
³RYHUOD\´FULWHULDSURSRVHGE\:DGGHOO+LVHYDOXDWLRQFULWHULDFRQVLVWRI
ILYHEDVLFHOHPHQWVLQFOXGLQJDEQRUPDOWHQGHUQHVVSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHSDWLHQWRQ
WHVWVVLPXODWLQJRUWKRSHGLFPDQHXYHUVSHUIRUPDQFHRQGLVWUDFWLRQWHVWVZKHUHD
VLPLODUPDQHXYHULVSHUIRUPHGWZRGLIIHUHQWZD\VRULQWZRGLIIHUHQWSRVLWLRQV
QRQSK\VLRORJLFZHDNQHVVRUVHQVRU\GLVWXUEDQFHDQGRYHUDOOH[DJJHUDWLRQRI
V\PSWRPV
•
VRFLDOULVNIDFWRUVLQFOXGHDHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHIDFWRUVLQWKHSDWLHQW¶VOLIHDQGZRUN
WKDWPD\DIIHFWRYHUDOOSURJQRVLVRIWKHFRQGLWLRQ(GXFDWLRQDQGMREVDWLVIDFWLRQ
DUHUHOHYDQWVRFLDOIDFWRUV6ZHQVRQDQGWKHVHIDFWRUVDUHH[DPLQHGKHUH
3URWHFWLYHIDFWRUVSRWHQWLDOO\SOD\MXVWDVDQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQWKHHYDOXDWLRQRIKHDOWK
DVULVNIDFWRUV$QHDUO\SURSRQHQWRISURWHFWLYHIDFWRUVZDV$QWRQRYVN\
DQGKLVWKHRU\RIVDOXWRJHQHVLVSURYLGHGDQDOWHUQDWLYHWRWKHSDWKRORJLF
SHUVSHFWLYH$QWRQRYVN\¶VUHVHDUFKIRFXVVHGRQWKHTXHVWLRQRIZK\DQLQGLYLGXDO
GHVSLWHHYHUSUHVHQWVWUHVVRUVUHPDLQVKHDOWK\$FFRUGLQJWR$QWRQRYVN\
KHDOWKDQGLOOQHVVDUHQRWWZRGLVWLQFWFDWHJRULHVLQVWHDGKHVDZWKHPDORQJD
FRQWLQXXP³+HDOWK(DVH'LV(DVH´+('(FRQWLQXXP7KLVVDOXWRJHQHVLVWKHRU\
LPSOLHVWKDWDSDWLHQWKDVQRWRQO\V\PSWRPVEXWLVDOVRUHFRJQL]HGDVDQLQGLYLGXDO
ZLWKKHDOWK\DWWULEXWHV)XUWKHUWKHFHQWUDOFRPSRQHQWRI$QWRQRYVN\¶VWKHRU\RI
KHDOWKLVWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH7KLVSHUVRQDOLW\FRQVWUXFWLVGHILQHGDVDJOREDO
RULHQWDWLRQLQZKLFKRQHSRVVHVVHVDJHQHUDOXQGHUO\LQJIHHOLQJRIWUXVWWKDWWKH
LQWHUQDODQGH[WHUQDOHQYLURQPHQWLVSUHGLFWDEOHDQGWKDWWKLQJVZLOOPRVWSUREDEO\
GHYHORSDVH[SHFWHG$QWRQRYVN\SURSRVHGWKDWWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHFDQ
GLUHFWO\DIIHFWDQLQGLYLGXDO¶VKHDOWKVWDWXVDVZHOODVLQGLUHFWO\PRELOL]HUHVRXUFHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
101
7DEOH6WXG\9DULDEOHV
5LVN9DULDEOHV
3URWHFWLYH9DULDEOHV
&ULWHULRQ9DULDEOHV
+LJKHU$JH /RZHU$JH 3DLQ&KURQLFLW\
/RZHU(GXFDWLRQ
+LJKHU(GXFDWLRQ
3DLQ,QWHQVLW\
)HPDOH*HQGHU
0DOH*HQGHU
1R3K\VLFDO([HUFLVH
5HJXODU3K\VLFDO([HUFLVH
6PRNHU
1RQ6PRNHU
'HSUHVVLRQ /RZ'HSUHVVLRQ6FRUHV
-RE'LVVDWLVIDFWLRQ -RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
&RPRUELGLWLHV
1R&RPRUELGLWLHV
/RZ62&
+LJK62&
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
6WXG\+\SRWKHVHV
/HQJWKRIDQG,QWHQVLW\RIWKH3DLQ([SHULHQFH
+
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHV7KHUHLVDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKH
ELRSV\FKRVRFLDOULVNIDFWRUVKLJKHUDJHORZHUHGXFDWLRQIHPDOHJHQGHUQRUHJXODU
SK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHVPRNLQJGHSUHVVLRQDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVDQGKLJKHUUDWLQJVIRU
FKURQLFLW\DQGIRUSDLQLQWHQVLW\LQEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV
+
3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV7KHUHLVDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHSV\FKRVRFLDO
SURWHFWLYHIDFWRUV6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHDQG-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQDQGORZHUUDWLQJVIRU
FKURQLFLW\DQGIRUSDLQLQWHQVLW\LQEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV%DFNSDLQSDWLHQWVDUH
H[SHFWHGWRVFRUHKLJKHURQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHWKDQQREDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV
+
([SODLQLQJWKH9DULDQFHIRU&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\7KH
QXPEHURIVLJQLILFDQWFRUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQFULWHULRQYDULDEOHVDQGSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHV
LVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHZKHQWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHVFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\DUH
FRPELQHG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
+
102
([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ([SHULHQFH3DWLHQWVH[SHULHQFLQJFKURQLFSDLQDQGRUKLJK
LQWHQVLW\SDLQZLOOVFRUHKLJKHURQWKHLWHPVPHDVXULQJD([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ5HDFWLRQ
WKDQSDWLHQWVZLWKDFXWHSDLQRUORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQ
*URXS'LIIHUHQFHV
+
*URXS'LIIHUHQFHV0HDQVFRUHVRQWKHSV\FKRVRFLDOULVNIDFWRUVHJ
GHSUHVVLRQIRUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXSDUHKLJKHUWKDQIRUWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS7KH
UHYHUVHLVH[SHFWHGIRUWKHSV\FKRVRFLDOSURWHFWLYHIDFWRUVHJ6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
MREVDWLVIDFWLRQLHPHDQVFRUHVIRUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXSRQWKHSV\FKRVRFLDO
SURWHFWLYHIDFWRUVLVORZHUWKDQPHDQVFRUHVIRUWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS
&RPRUELGLWLHV
7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQORZEDFNSDLQDQGRWKHUGLVHDVHVRUFRPRUELGLWLHVZLOO
EHH[DPLQHG,WVHHPVORJLFDOWRDVVXPHWKDWFKURQLFKLJKLQWHQVLW\ORZEDFNSDLQ
SDWLHQWVWHQGWRUHSRUWPRUHFRPRUELGLWLHVLHGLVHDVHVVXFKDVFDQFHUKHDUW
GLVHDVHDOOHUJLHVDVWKPDDQGGLDEHWHVWKDQSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKRXWFKURQLFLQWHQVH
SDLQ7KLVPD\VXJJHVWDSDUWLFXODUYXOQHUDELOLW\IRUGLVHDVHRUDGLVHDVHSURQH
SHUVRQDOLW\DFRQVWUXFWVXJJHVWHGE\)ULHGPDQDQG%RRWK.HZOH\7KLV
YDULDEOHLQFOXGHVERWKOLIHWKUHDWHQLQJGLVHDVHVHJFDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVHDQG
DQQR\LQJEXWQRQOLIHWKUHDWHQLQJGLVHDVHVHJDOOHUJLHVDVWKPD
+
&RPRUELGLWLHV7KHUHLVDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQKLJKUDWLQJVRQ
FKURQLFLW\DQGRQSDLQLQWHQVLW\DQGVHOIUHSRUWHGFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWSDVW
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQ7KHRULHV$ERXW'LVHDVH2QVHW
7KLVVHFWLRQDGGUHVVHVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSHUVRQDOLW\DQGGLVHDVHRQVHWEDFN
SDLQFDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVHIURPDOD\SHUVRQ¶VSHUVSHFWLYH7KHPDLQTXHVWLRQ
DGGUHVVHGKHUHLVZKHWKHUVLPLODUDWWULEXWLRQSDWWHUQVH[LVWEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQ
FDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVHLHGRSDUWLFLSDQWVDWWULEXWH³MREGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´WRWKH
RQVHWRIFKURQLFEDFNSDLQ"$QGIXUWKHUGREDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVPDNHWKHVDPH
DWWULEXWLRQVDERXWGLVHDVHRQVHWDVFRQWUROV"'LIIHUHQFHVDUHH[SHFWHGVLQFHFDQFHU
DQGKHDUWGLVHDVHVDUHOLIHWKUHDWHQLQJZKLOHEDFNSDLQLVGHELOLWDWLQJEXWQRWOLIH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
103
WKUHDWHQLQJ'LIIHUHQFHVDUHDOVRH[SHFWHGZKHQSDUWLFLSDQWVWKHPVHOYHVDUHDIIOLFWHG
ZLWKIRUH[DPSOHFKURQLFEDFNSDLQ
+
'LVHDVH5HODWHG$WWULEXWLRQV3DUWLFLSDQWVUDWHSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVWREH
UHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHRQVHWRIFDQFHUDQGRIKHDUWGLVHDVHOHVVVRIRUWKHRQVHWRIEDFN
SDLQ
+
%DFN3DLQ3DWLHQWV¶$WWULEXWLRQV/RZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVDWWULEXWHSHUVRQDOLW\
IDFWRUVIRUWKHRQVHWRIEDFNSDLQORZHUWKDQQREDFNSDLQSDUWLFLSDQWV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
104
0(7+2'
3DUWLFLSDQWV
0HDQV*HQGHU$JH1DWLRQDOLW\/HYHORI(GXFDWLRQ
*HUPDQIHPDOHVDQG*HUPDQPDOHV1 ZLWKDPHDQDJHRI\HDUV
6' SDUWLFLSDWHGLQWKLVVWXG\7KH\RXQJHVWSDUWLFLSDQWZDV\HDUVROG
WKHROGHVWSDUWLFLSDQW\HDUV$OOSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHRI(XURSHDQRULJLQVSRNHWKH
*HUPDQODQJXDJHDQGZHUHUHFUXLWHGIURPWKHVDPHVHPLUXUDOWRZQRI
DSSUR[LPDWHO\LQKDELWDQWVLQVRXWKHUQ*HUPDQ\SDUWLFLSDQWVKDGQRW
FRPSOHWHGWKHLU³DELWXU´SDUWLFLSDQWVKDGFRPSOHWHGWKHLU³DELWXU´$ELWXULVDQ
DSSUR[LPDWHHTXLYDOHQWWR86KLJKVFKRROJUDGXDWHVZLWKD*3$RUEHWWHU
7KHVHVWXGHQWVLQWHQGWRFRQWLQXHWKHLUHGXFDWLRQDWWKHXQLYHUVLW\OHYHO
5DWHRI5HWXUQ
)URPWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHVGHOLYHUHGWRWKHYDULRXVPHGLFDOSUDFWLFHV
TXHVWLRQQDLUHVZHUHUHWXUQHG7KHUHVSRQVHUDWHIRUWKHHQWLUHVDPSOHZDV
DSSUR[LPDWHO\)RUWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUH³EDFNSDLQ´WKHUHWXUQUDWHZDV
IRUWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUH³QREDFNSDLQ´,WLVQRWSRVVLEOHWRGHWHUPLQHZK\WKH
UHWXUQUDWHVYDULHGDFURVVWKHGRFWRUV¶SUDFWLFHV+\SRWKHWLFDOO\WKHVHGLIIHUHQFHV
FRXOGEHGXHWRWKHSHUVRQDOLW\RIWKHGRFWRULHLQWURYHUWHGYHUVXVH[WURYHUWHG
DQGKRZFRPIRUWDEOHKHDOORIWKHGRFWRUVLQYROYHGLQWKLVVWXG\ZHUHPDOHZDVLQ
DVNLQJKLVHPSOR\HHVWRUHFUXLWSDWLHQWVIRUWKHVWXG\7KHUDWHRIUHWXUQIRUWKLV
VWXG\ZDVH[WUHPHO\KLJK7KLVPD\EHGXHWRWKHVWDWXVUHVSHFWGRFWRUVLQ*HUPDQ\
HQMR\1RQHRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVUHFHLYHGUHLPEXUVHPHQWIRUTXHVWLRQQDLUH
FRPSOHWLRQ
7DEOH5DWHRI5HWXUQ
4XHVWLRQQDLUHV
*URXS
2XW
,Q
4XHVWLRQQDLUH³QREDFNSDLQ´ 7RWDO 4XHVWLRQQDLUH³EDFNSDLQ´
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
105
3URFHGXUHDQG5HFUXLWPHQWRI3DUWLFLSDQWV
*URXS³EDFNSDLQ´
'DWDIRUWKHILUVWJURXSRISDUWLFLSDQWVQ ZHUHFROOHFWHGLQWKUHHRIWKHIRXU
RUWKRSHGLFSUDFWLFHVLQWRZQ3DWLHQWVZHUHWROGWKDWDVWXG\DERXWEDFNSDLQZDV
EHLQJUXQLQWKHSUDFWLFHWREHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGWKHSKHQRPHQRQRISDLQZLWKWKH
KRSHRIHYHQWXDOO\EHLQJDEOHWRRIIHUDPRUHHIIHFWLYHWKHUDS\)XUWKHUSDWLHQWV
ZHUHLQIRUPHGWKDWWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHLQFOXGHGVHOIUHSRUWHGKHDOWKEHKDYLRUVVXFKDV
H[HUFLVHDQGVPRNLQJDVZHOODVVRPHSHUVRQDOLW\VFDOHV3DWLHQWVZHUHUHFUXLWHGLQ
FOXVWHUVLHSDWLHQWVZHUHUDQGRPO\GLFHWKURZLQJPHWKRGUHFUXLWHGIURPDOORI
WKHEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVUHFHLYLQJDQDSSRLQWPHQWRQDSDUWLFXODUGD\'XULQJWKHGDWD
FROOHFWLRQSKDVHSDWLHQWVZHUHDEOHWRFKRRVHIUHHO\ZKLFKRUWKRSHGLFGRFWRUWKH\
ZRXOGOLNHWRVHHSDWLHQWVFRXOGFKDQJHGRFWRUVGXULQJWKHFRXUVHRIWUHDWPHQWDQG
WKH\GLGQRWKDYHWRSD\IRUWKHH[DPLQDWLRQV3DWLHQWVUHSRUWLQJEDFNSDLQLQWKH
SDVWRULQWKHSUHVHQWDWWKHUHJLVWUDWLRQGHVNZHUHDVNHGE\RIILFHHPSOR\HHVWR
FRPSOHWHWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHLQWKHZDLWLQJURRPXSRQDUULYDOEHIRUHWKH\VDZWKH
GRFWRU3DWLHQWVZHUHUHPLQGHGWKDWFRPSOHWLRQRUQRQFRPSOHWLRQRIWKH
TXHVWLRQQDLUHKDGQRHIIHFWXSRQWKHLUWUHDWPHQWDQGWKHLUDQVZHUVZRXOGEHWUHDWHG
FRQILGHQWLDOO\7KHH[DFWLQVWUXFWLRQVIRUFRPSOHWLRQFDQEHIRXQGLQWKH$SSHQGL[
3DUWLFLSDQWVFRPSOHWHGWKLVTXHVWLRQQDLUHZLWKLQDQKRXUZLWKRXWFRQVXOWDWLRQIURP
RWKHUVRUIURPSULQWHGPDWHULDO3DWLHQWVFRPSOHWLQJWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUH³EDFNSDLQ´
ZHUHDOVRUDWHGE\WKHLURUWKRSHGLFGRFWRUVRQDQREMHFWLYHVFDOHLGHQWLI\LQJWKH
FDXVHRIWKHEDFNSDLQDVZHOODVDQH[DJJHUDWHGSDLQH[SHULHQFH7KHFRPSOHWH
TXHVWLRQQDLUHFDQEHIRXQGLQWKH$SSHQGL[2IILFHHPSOR\HHVZHUHLQVWUXFWHGQRW
WRJLYHSDWLHQWVZKRKDGGLIILFXOWLHVZLWKWKH*HUPDQODQJXDJHDTXHVWLRQQDLUH
EHFDXVHLWZDVVRH[WHQVLYHDQGWLPHGLGQRWDOORZIRUDWUDQVODWLRQE\SUDFWLFH
SHUVRQQHO2QO\WKUHHSUDFWLFHVZHUHLQFOXGHGLQWKLVVWXG\EHFDXVHWKHIRXUWK
RUWKRSHGLFGRFWRUZDVRQVLFNOHDYHDWWKHWLPHRIGDWDFROOHFWLRQ
*URXS³QREDFNSDLQ´
7KHVHFRQGJURXSQ RISDUWLFLSDQWVZDVUHFUXLWHGWKURXJKDQRUWKRSHGLF
SUDFWLFHDJHQHUDOSUDFWLWLRQHU¶VRIILFHDQGDQRVHHDUWKURDWVSHFLDOLVW¶VRIILFH,Q
WKHVHSUDFWLFHVSDWLHQWVZHUHWROGWKDWDVWXG\DERXWKHDOWKEHKDYLRUVZDVEHLQJUXQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
106
LQWKHSUDFWLFHWREHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGZK\VRPHLQGLYLGXDOVUHPDLQKHDOWK\DQGVRPH
EHFRPHLOO3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDOVRUHFUXLWHGDVGHVFULEHGDERYH7KHRQO\H[FOXVLRQ
FULWHULRQZDVDFXWHEDFNSDLQLHWKHUHDVRQIRUWKHLUSUHVHQWYLVLWZDVQRWEDFN
SDLQ7KHTXHVWLRQQDLUHVZHUHFRPSOHWHGZLWKLQDQKRXULQWKHZDLWLQJURRPPRVWO\
EHIRUHWUHDWPHQWEHJDQSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHLQVWUXFWHGWRFRPSOHWHWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUH
ZLWKRXWFRQVXOWLQJDQHLJKERURUSULQWHGPDWHULDO)RXUTXHVWLRQQDLUHVZHUHUHWXUQHG
WKURXJKWKHPDLOEHFDXVHWLPHLQWKHZDLWLQJURRPZDVQRWVXIILFLHQWIRUFRPSOHWLRQ
)RUIXUWKHULQVWUXFWLRQVIRUFRPSOHWLRQSOHDVHUHIHUWRWKHFRPSOHWHFRSLHVRIWKH
TXHVWLRQQDLUHVLQWKH$SSHQGL[
*URXS³FDXVDODWWULEXWLRQV´
$WKLUGJURXSQ FRPSOHWHGRQO\WKHLWHPVDVVHVVLQJFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDERXW
GLVHDVHRQVHWDQGTXHVWLRQVUHJDUGLQJGHPRJUDSKLFV3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHUHFUXLWHG
WKURXJKWKHVQRZEDOOLQJWHFKQLTXHLHIULHQGVDQGIULHQGVRIWKHUHVHDUFKHU¶V
IULHQGVZHUHUHTXHVWHGWRFRPSOHWHWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUH3DUWLFLSDQWVUHTXLUHG
DSSUR[LPDWHO\PLQXWHVWRFRPSOHWHWKLVTXHVWLRQQDLUH$OWKRXJKSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUH
LQVWUXFWHGWRFRPSOHWHWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHZLWKRXWFRQVXOWDWLRQIURPRWKHUVRUIURP
SULQWHGPDWHULDOWKLVZDVQRWFRQWUROOHGVLQFHQRQHRIWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHVZHUH
FRPSOHWHGLQWKHUHVHDUFKHU¶VSUHVHQFH1RQHRIWKHVHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHUHFUXLWHG
WKURXJKDGRFWRU¶VSUDFWLFHDQGQRQHRIWKHPKDGVHHQDGRFWRUDERXWEDFNSDLQ
ZLWKLQWKHODVWVL[PRQWKV+RZHYHUGXHWRWKHQXPEHURIPLVVLQJYDOXHVIRUDOOWKH
RWKHUVFDOHVDQGLQRUGHUQRWWRMHRSDUGL]HWKHLQWHJULW\RIWKHRWKHUDQDO\VHVWKLV
VXEJURXSZDVQRWLQFOXGHGLQWKHGDWDDQDO\VHV
7DEOH*URXSIUHTXHQFLHV
³EDFNSDLQ´ Q ³QREDFNSDLQ´
Q 7RWDO 1 $OWKRXJKWKH³QREDFNSDLQ´TXHVWLRQQDLUHGLGQRWLQFOXGHDVPDQ\GHWDLOHGTXHVWLRQV
DERXWWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\RIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHZHUH
DVVHVVHG+RZHYHUWKHTXHVWLRQVUHJDUGLQJKHDOWKEHKDYLRUHJH[HUFLVHDQG
VPRNLQJDQGWKHSHUVRQDOLW\VFDOHVUHPDLQHGWKHVDPHDQGLQWKHVDPHRUGHUIRU
WKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHJURXSV³EDFNSDLQ´DQG³QREDFNSDLQJURXS´7KHSUREOHPV
LQYROYHGZLWKRUGHUHIIHFWZLOOEHDGGUHVVHGLQWKH'LVFXVVLRQVHFWLRQRIWKLVSDSHU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
107
4XHVWLRQQDLUH0DWHULDOV
7ZRYHUVLRQVRIWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHZHUHGLVWULEXWHGWRWKHJURXSV³EDFNSDLQ´³QR
EDFNSDLQ´
4XHVWLRQQDLUH³EDFNSDLQ´
3DLQKLVWRU\
7KHSDLQKLVWRU\VFDOHLQFOXGHVDQDVVHVVPHQWRISDLQGXUDWLRQLHZKHWKHUWKHSDLQ
LVDFXWHRUFKURQLFDQGDPHDVXUHPHQWRISDLQLQWHQVLW\RQDSRLQW/LNHUWVFDOH
&RPRUELGLWLHV
7KHFRPRUELGLW\VFDOHGHYHORSHGIRUDODUJHORQJLWXGLQDOVWXG\WDNLQJSODFHLQWKH
3HUVRQDOLW\'HSDUWPHQWDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI+HLGHOEHUJ$PHODQJ6FKPLGW
5DWKMHQV$PHODQJ6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV0DWWKHZVUHTXLUHVSDUWLFLSDQWV
WRUDWHZKHWKHUWKH\KDYHKDGLQWKHSDVWDSDUWLFXODUGLVHDVHRULIWKH\DUH
FXUUHQWO\VXIIHULQJIURPDSDUWLFXODUGLVHDVHLHWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVJLYH³\HV´RU³QR´
DQVZHUV7KHIROORZLQJWDEOHOLVWVWKHDVVHVVHGGLVHDVHV
7DEOH&RPRUELGLW\6FDOH$VVHVVHG'LVHDVHV
'LVHDVH
&DQFHU
+HDUWGLVHDVH
'LVHDVHVRIWKHEORRG
'LDEHWHV
7K\PXVG\VIXQFWLRQ
'LVHDVHVRIWKHOLYHU
$OOHUJLHV
$VWKPD
$UWKULWLV
'HSUHVVLRQ +HDUWEXUQ 8OFHUV
+LJKEORRGSUHVVXUH
'LJHVWLYHFRPSOLFDWLRQV
2WKHU %LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
108
*HQHUDO+HDOWK
'HPRJUDSKLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFVVXFKDV$JHJHQGHUZHLJKWKHLJKWSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVH
GLHWVXEMHFWLYHKHDOWKVWDWXVVPRNLQJKDELWVDQGDOFRKROFRQVXPSWLRQZHUH
DVVHVVHGWKURXJKWKLVVFDOH)RUWKHVDNHRIFRKHUHQF\QRWDOOSRVVLEOHYDULDEOHV
FRXOGEHDQDO\]HGKHUH2QO\DJHHGXFDWLRQJHQGHUVPRNLQJDQGSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVH
KDELWVZHUHGHWHUPLQHGWREHUHOHYDQWIRUWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VHVSUHVHQWHGKHUH
$JHZDVJLYHQRQDUDWLRVFDOHJHQGHUSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHDQGVPRNLQJKDELWVRQD
QRPLQDOVFDOH
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQ7KHRULHV
7KLVVFDOHZDVRULJLQDOO\GHVLJQHGWRDVVHVVWKHOD\SHUVRQ¶VLGHDVDERXWWKH
UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVDQGWKHRQVHWRIFDQFHUDQGFRURQDU\
KHDUWGLVHDVH6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV5HOHYDQWWRSLFVZHUHIRXQGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUH
DQGWKHLWHPVZHUHIRUPXODWHGE\PHPEHUVRIWKH+HLGHOEHUJUHVHDUFKWHDPIRU
KHDOWKLVVXHV7KLVVFDOHLVDQDGDSWHGYHUVLRQRIWKHVFDOHGHYHORSHGE\6FKPLGW
5DWKMHQVWRLQFOXGHEDFNSDLQ%DVHGRQWKHUHYLHZRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHDERYH
VHYHQRIWKHLWHPVDUHNQRZQWREHUHOHYDQWIRUFKURQLFEDFNSDLQ)RUDOOWKUHH
LOOQHVVHVSDUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUIRUGLVHDVH
RQVHWRQDSRLQW/LNHUWVFDOH DEVROXWHO\XQWUXHFRPSOHWHO\WUXH7KH
IROORZLQJWDEOHOLVWVWKHLWHPVRIWKLVVFDOHWKHVHYHQLWHPVPHDVXULQJEDFNSDLQ
DUHPDUNHGZLWKDQDVWHULVN
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
109
7DEOH,WHPV$VVHVVLQJ&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP 7H[W 'LVVDWLVIDFWLRQZLWKWKHZRUNVLWXDWLRQ
&RQVWDQWO\RYHUWD[HGFRQVWDQWVWUHVV
'LVDSSRLQWHGDERXWXQDWWDLQDEOHOLIHJRDOV
&RQVWDQWO\UHFXUULQJIDPLO\SUREOHPV
5HFXUULQJDQ[LHW\DERXWWKHIXWXUH
+RSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ
7LPHSUHVVXUHDQGORQJWHUPVWUHVV
/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRUGLYRUFH
)UHTXHQWUHSUHVVLRQRIUDJHDQGDQJHU
/RQHOLQHVVDQGLVRODWLRQ
&RQVWDQWGHQLDORIRQH¶VRZQQHHGV
)UHTXHQWUHSUHVVLRQRIVDGQHVVDQGGHVSRQGHQF\
+LJKVHOILPSRVHGH[SHFWDWLRQVIRUDFKLHYHPHQW
&RQWLQXDOHPRWLRQDOLQVWDELOLW\DQGVHQVLWLYLW\
&RQVWDQWGHSUHVVHGPRRG
7UDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWV
,QGLFDWHVZKLFKLWHPVPHDVXUHEDFNSDLQ
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
7KH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOHXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\LVDVKRUWIRUPRIWKH*HUPDQ
TXHVWLRQQDLUH62&+'GHYHORSHGE\WKH+HDOWK3V\FKRORJ\5HVHDUFK7HDPIRUD
ODUJHORQJLWXGLQDOVWXG\WDNLQJSODFHDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI+HLGHOEHUJ8QLYHUVLW\
%DVHGRQSUHYLRXVIDFWRUDQDO\VHVORZLWHPWHVWFRUUHODWLRQVULWFRUUHODWLRQVFI
$PHODQJ6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV6FKPLGW5DWKMHQVDQGGHOHWLRQRI
UHSHWLWLRXVLWHPVHJ³,DPDQRSWLPLVWLFSHUVRQÝV³0\RXWORRNRQOLIHLV
JHQHUDOO\YHU\RSWLPLVWLF´WKHRULJLQDO*HUPDQYHUVLRQFRQWDLQLQJLWHPVZDV
UHGXFHGWRWKHIROORZLQJLWHPVLQRUGHUQRWWRRYHUWD[SDLQSDWLHQWVSDUWLFLSDWLQJLQ
WKLVVWXG\7KHLWHPWHVWFRUUHODWLRQVEDVHGRQDVDPSOHRIKHDOWK\Q PDOH
DQGQ IHPDOHSDUWLFLSDQWVIURP6FKPLGW5DWKMHQVFDQEHIRXQGLQWKH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
110
$SSHQGL[7KHUHOLDELOLW\HVWLPDWHRIWKHVFDOHLVα 3DUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGWKH
LWHPVRQDSRLQW/LNHUWVFDOH DEVROXWHO\XQWUXH FRPSOHWHO\WUXH
7DEOH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOH62&
,WHP 7H[W ³,RIWHQGRQ¶WXQGHUVWDQGKRZ,JRWP\VHOILQWRWKHVHFLUFXPVWDQFHV´
³,RIWHQDVNP\VHOI:K\LVWKLVKDSSHQLQJWRPH"´
³,ORYHOLIH´
³,EHOLHYHWKDW,FDQDFFRPSOLVKDQ\WDVNVHWEHIRUHPH´
³0\OLIHLVFKDRWLFHYHU\GD\LQH[SOLFDEOHWKLQJVKDSSHQRU,ILQGP\VHOI
LQXQH[SHFWHGSUHGLFDPHQWV´
³:LWKUHVSHFWWRP\IXWXUH,¶PYHU\RSWLPLVWLF´
³,RIWHQGRQ¶WXQGHUVWDQGZK\WKLQJVWXUQRXWDVWKH\GR´
³,DPDQRSWLPLVWLFSHUVRQ´
´,QJHQHUDO,KDYHFRQILGHQFHLQWKHVNLOOVDQGWKHJRDOVRIRXU
SROLWLFLDQV´
LQGLFDWHVQHJDWLYHO\SROHGLWHPV
'HSUHVVLRQ
7KLVGHSUHVVLRQVFDOHIURPYRQ=HUVVHQLVZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGLQ*HUPDQ
VSHDNLQJFRXQWULHVDQGLVXWLOL]HGWRFRQVLVWHQWO\DVVHVVFOLQLFDOFULWHULDRIGHSUHVVLRQ
%DVHGRQDVDPSOHRIKHDOWK\PHQQ DQGZRPHQQ 6FKPLGW
5DWKMHQVVHOHFWHGLWHPVWKDWVKRZHGDQULWFRUUHODWLRQRIDWOHDVWIRU
ERWKVDPSOHJURXSV7KHVHVDPHLWHPVZHUHXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\7KHLWHPWHVW
FRUUHODWLRQVIRUWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHFDQEHIRXQGLQWKH$SSHQGL[7KHUHOLDELOLW\
HVWLPDWHIRUWKLVVFDOHLVα +HUHSDUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGLWHPVRQDSRLQW/LNHUW
VFDOH DEVROXWHO\XQWUXH FRPSOHWHO\WUXH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
111
7DEOH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHYRQ=HUVVHQ
,WHP 7H[W ´,¶YHEHHQDQ[LRXVDQGMXPS\ODWHO\´
´,IHHO³GRZQ´DQGRXWRIHQHUJ\´
³,XQGHUVWDQGDORWOHVVZULWWHQWH[WWKDQ,XVHGWR´
´,ZRXOGFRQVLGHUNLOOLQJP\VHOI´
³,QRORQJHUKDYHDQ\GHHSUHODWLRQVKLSV´
³,IHHOOLNH,¶PDERXWWRIDOODSDUW´
³,¶PFRQVWDQWO\DQ[LRXVWKDW,¶OOVD\RUGRVRPHWKLQJZURQJ´
³,DPOHVVLQWHUHVWHGLQP\ORYHUHODWLRQVKLSVWKDQ,XVHGWREH´
³,RIWHQIHHOVLPSO\PLVHUDEOH´
´(YHQZKHQ,WU\,FDQ¶WWKLQNVWUDLJKW´
´,GRQ¶WKDYHDQ\HPRWLRQVDQ\PRUH´
-REVDWLVIDFWLRQ
7KHMREVDWLVIDFWLRQVFDOH1HXEDXHUFRQWDLQVVL[LWHPVVFRUHGRQDSRLQW
/LNHUWVFDOH YHU\LQIUHTXHQWO\ YHU\IUHTXHQWO\7KHLWHPVDUHGHVLJQHGWR
PHDVXUHMREVDWLVIDFWLRQRQDFRQWLQXXPLHWKHILUVWLWHPUHIOHFWVDSRVLWLYH
DWWLWXGHWRZDUGVZRUNVHHEHORZWKHPLGGOHLWHPVSURJUHVVLYHO\OHVVSRVLWLYHDQG
WKHILIWKLWHPPHDVXUHVDQHJDWLYHDWWLWXGHWRZDUGVWKHZRUNVLWXDWLRQRUMRE
GLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ7KHODVWLWHPDVVHVVHVWKHZRUNVLWXDWLRQLQJHQHUDO7KHUHOLDELOLW\
HVWLPDWHLVα 7DEOH-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOH1HXEDXHU
,WHP 7H[W ³,¶PH[FLWHGWRJHWEDFNWRZRUNDIWHUYDFDWLRQV´
³,¶PFRQWHQWZLWKP\ZRUNVLWXDWLRQDQG,KRSHWKDWLWVWD\VWKDWZD\´
´,GRQ¶WKDYHPXFKFRQWURORYHUP\ZRUNVLWXDWLRQ´
´,¶PQRWHFVWDWLFDERXWP\MREEXWLWFRXOGEHZRUVH´
³,DOPRVWUHDG\WRTXLW0\ZRUNVLWXDWLRQLVQRORQJHUWROHUDEOH´
³,QJHQHUDOKRZFRQWHQWDUH\RXZLWK\RXUMRE"´
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
112
(GXFDWLRQ
2QHLWHPPHDVXUHVWKHHGXFDWLRQDOOHYHORIVWXG\SDUWLFLSDQWV6L[OHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQ
DUHDVVHVVHGWKURXJKWKLVLWHP)RUWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VHVHGXFDWLRQDOOHYHOZDV
HYDOXDWHGRQDQRPLQDOVFDOH³KLJK´RU³ORZ´HGXFDWLRQ%DVHGRQWKH*HUPDQ
HGXFDWLRQDOV\VWHPFRPSOHWLRQRIWKH³$ELWXU´LVDQLQGLFDWLRQWKDWWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV
LQWHQGWRFRPSOHWHDFROOHJHRUXQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWLRQ7KHGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQ
SDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKDQ³$ELWXU´KLJKGLSORPDYHUVXVSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKRXWDQ³$ELWXU´
ORZGLSORPDKDVEHHQPDGHIRUWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VHVVLQFHLWDOVRUHIOHFWVWKH
MREVPDUNHWVDYDLODEOHIRUWKHVHWZRJURXSV
4XHVWLRQQDLUHIRUWKH3K\VLFLDQ
([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ([SHULHQFH
%DVHGRQ:DGGHOO¶VHYDOXDWLRQFULWHULDWRDVVHVVWKHFRQFHSWRISV\FKRORJLFDO
³RYHUOD\´LQFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVILYHLWHPVZHUHDGDSWHGIRUWKLVVWXG\WRWHVWIRU
DEQRUPDOWHQGHUQHVVSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHSDWLHQWRQWHVWVVLPXODWLQJRUWKRSHGLF
PDQHXYHUVSHUIRUPDQFHRQGLVWUDFWLRQWHVWVZKHUHDVLPLODUPDQHXYHULVSHUIRUPHG
WZRGLIIHUHQWZD\VRULQWZRGLIIHUHQWSRVLWLRQVQRQSK\VLRORJLFZHDNQHVVRU
VHQVRU\GLVWXUEDQFHDQGRYHUDOOWHQGHQF\WRH[DJJHUDWHV\PSWRPV3K\VLFLDQVUDWHG
SDWLHQWVUHVSRQVHVRQDQRPLQDOVFDOH
7DEOH([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ([SHULHQFH
,WHP 7H[W 6.,1 ³,VWKHVNLQVHQVLWLYHLQWKHOXPEDUVSLQHDUHDRUGRHVWKHSDWLHQW
UHSRUWSDLQZKHQSUHVVLQJXSRQWKHKLSERQH6DFUXPRUXSSHUEDFN"´
35(66
³'RHVWKHSDWLHQWUHSRUWSDLQZKHQDSSO\LQJOLJKWSUHVVXUHWRWKHWRSRI
WKHKHDGZKHQVWDQGLQJXS"´
/,)7 ³'RHVWKHSDWLHQWUHSRUWPRUHSDLQZKHQOLIWLQJWKHOHJZLWKDQ
H[WHQGHGNQHHZKLOHVLWWLQJWKDQZKLOHO\LQJGRZQ"´
1(59(
³'RHVWKHSDWLHQWVKRZPRWRULFDQGVHQVRU\GHILFLWVWKDWDUHKDUGWR
DWWULEXWHWRRQHRUPRUHQHUYHURRWV"´
29(5
Ä'RHVWKHSDWLHQWWHQGWRH[DJJHUDWHWKHSDLQUHDFWLRQRURYHUUHDFW"´
DGDSWHGIURP:DGGHOO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
113
3DLQ2ULJLQ6FDOH
2UWKRSHGLFGRFWRUVZHUHDVNHGWRFODVVLI\WKHFDXVHRIWKHSDWLHQW¶VORZEDFNSDLQ
FDWHJRULHVZHUHSUHVHQWHGLQFOXGLQJJHQHWLFPDOIRUPDWLRQKHUQLDWHGGLVFSRVW
RSHUDWLYHSDLQGHJHQHUDWLRQDQGSV\FKRVRPDWLFFDXVHV
4XHVWLRQQDLUH³1R%DFN3DLQ´
3DUWLFLSDQWVFRPSOHWLQJWKHQREDFNSDLQTXHVWLRQQDLUHUHVSRQGHGWRWKHIROORZLQJ
VFDOHVSDLQKLVWRU\JHQHUDOSDLQLQWHQVLW\DQGGXUDWLRQQRWQHFHVVDULO\EDFNSDLQ
FRPRUELGLW\JHQHUDOKHDOWKFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQWKHRULHVVHQVHRIFRKHUHQFH
GHSUHVVLRQMREVDWLVIDFWLRQHGXFDWLRQ&RPSOHWHFRSLHVRIERWKTXHVWLRQQDLUHVFDQ
EHIRXQGLQWKH$SSHQGL[
5HVHDUFK'HVLJQ
7KHUHVHDUFKGHVLJQLVDFURVVVHFWLRQDOTXHVWLRQQDLUHVWXG\LQYROYLQJVHOIUHSRUWV
RQDOORIWKHVFDOHVH[FHSWIRUWKHSDLQRULJLQVFDOHLQZKLFKRUWKRSHGLFSK\VLFLDQV
UHVSRQGHGWRWKHLWHPV$VPHQWLRQHGDERYHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHUHFUXLWHGIURPILYH
GLIIHUHQWGRFWRUV¶RIILFHVDSURFHGXUHLQYROYLQJVHOHFWLRQELDV7KLVELDVDQGRWKHU
PHWKRGRORJLFDOSUREOHPVDUHLQKHUHQWLQDVWXG\RIWKLVNLQGDQGPD\MHRSDUGL]HWKH
LQWHUQDODQGH[WHUQDOYDOLGLW\
)DFWRUV-HRSDUGL]LQJ,QWHUQDODQG([WHUQDO9DOLGLW\
:KLOHWKHLQWHUQDOYDOLGLW\DOORZVIRUWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHUHVXOWVDQGLVDEDVLF
PLQLPXPLQUHVHDUFKH[WHUQDOYDOLGLW\LVDTXHVWLRQRIJHQHUDOL]DELOLW\7RZKDW
SRSXODWLRQVVHWWLQJVWUHDWPHQWYDULDEOHVDQGPHDVXUHPHQWYDULDEOHVFDQWKH
UHVXOWVEHJHQHUDOL]HG",GHDOO\LQFKRRVLQJWKHUHVHDUFKGHVLJQERWKW\SHVRI
YDOLGLW\VKRXOGEHPD[LPL]HG
,QWKHLUFODVVLFZRUN&DPSEHOODQG6WDQOH\GLVFXVVSRVVLEOHH[WUDQHRXV
YDULDEOHVWKDWFRXOGDIIHFWVWXG\ILQGLQJV2QO\WKHYDULDEOHVUHOHYDQWWRWKHUHVHDUFK
GHVLJQKHUHZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGEHORZ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
114
+LVWRU\7KHVSHFLILFHYHQWVRFFXUULQJLQWKHWLPHWKHVWXG\ZDVUXQ
7KLVVWXG\7RFRQWUROIRUWKLVIDFWRUWKLVVWXG\ZDVUXQGXULQJWKHZLQWHUPRQWKVRI
LHWZRPRQWKVEHIRUHDQGWZRPRQWKVDIWHUWKHZLQWHUKROLGD\VLQ
RUGHUWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHH[WUDQHRXVYDULDEOHIRUH[DPSOHZHDWKHUZDVKHOGWRD
PLQLPXP1HYHUWKHOHVVDQHYHQWOLNHWKH6HSWHPEHUWKLQFLGHQWRFFXUULQJWZR
PRQWKVEHIRUHWKHVWXG\EHJDQFRXOGQRWEHFRQWUROOHG,WPD\EHWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWV
ZHUHPRUHGHSUHVVHGRUKRSHOHVVLQWKHIDOOWKDQQRUPDODQGWKDWWKHLUVFRUHVRQ
WKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHRUGHSUHVVLRQVFDOHPD\KDYHEHHQKLJKHURUORZHULIWKH\
KDGFRPSOHWHGWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHDWDQRWKHUWLPH
0DWXUDWLRQ7KHSURFHVVHVZLWKLQWKHUHVSRQGHQWVRSHUDWLQJDVDIXQFWLRQRIWKH
SDVVDJHRIWLPHSHUVHQRWVSHFLILFWRWKHSDUWLFXODUHYHQWVLQFOXGLQJJURZLQJ
ROGHUJURZLQJKXQJULHUJURZLQJPRUHWLUHGHWF
7KLVVWXG\7KLVIDFWRUSOD\VDPLQLPXPUROHKHUHVLQFHTXHVWLRQQDLUHVZHUH
FRPSOHWHGGXULQJQRUPDOEXVLQHVVKRXUVDQGWKHDYHUDJHWLPHIRUILOOLQJRXWWKH
TXHVWLRQQDLUHZDVDSSUR[LPDWHO\RQHKRXULQDGGLWLRQFRQWUROVZHUHHTXDOO\
DIIHFWHG1HYHUWKHOHVVWKLVYDULDEOHPD\EHLPSRUWDQWZLWKUHVSHFWWRVHOIUHSRUWV
DERXWWKHGXUDWLRQDQGLQWHQVLW\RIDSDLQH[SHULHQFHVLQFHWKHUHDVRQIRUWKHYLVLWWR
WKHGRFWRUZDVSDLQ
7HVWLQJ7KHHIIHFWVRIILOOLQJRXWDTXHVWLRQQDLUH
7KLVVWXG\9DULDEOHVVXFKDVVRFLDOGHVLUDELOLW\DQGLVVXHVRIVRFLDOL]DWLRQHJPHQ
GRQRWDGPLWWRKDYLQJSDLQPD\HIIHFWVFDOHVFRUHV+RZHYHUFRQWUROVDUHHTXDOO\
DIIHFWHGE\WKHVHLVVXHV
%LDVHV5HVXOWLQJLQGLIIHUHQWLDOVHOHFWLRQRIUHVSRQGHQWVIURPWKHFRPSDULVRQJURXSV
7KLVVWXG\7KLVVHOHFWLRQELDVSRVHVDSUREOHPLQWKLVVWXG\DQGWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI
WKHUHVXOWV7KHPRVWFULWLFDOELDVLVWKDWGDWDZHUHFROOHFWHGLQDQRXWSDWLHQWFOLQLFDO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
115
VHWWLQJ,QDGGLWLRQDOWKRXJKWKHVDPHLQVWUXFWLRQVZHUHJLYHQWRHDFKSUDFWLFH
UHJDUGLQJUHFUXLWPHQWFULWHULDWKHUHLVQRZD\RIFRQWUROOLQJZKHWKHUWKHLQVWUXFWLRQV
ZHUHIROORZHGDVJLYHQ)XUWKHUGXHWRRUJDQL]DWLRQDOIDFWRUVWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUH
UHFUXLWHGLQFOXVWHUVHJIURPDOOWKHSDWLHQWVZKRKDGDQDSSRLQWPHQWRQ
7KXUVGD\WKHGLFHZDVWKURZQWRGHWHUPLQHZKLFKSDWLHQWZRXOGEHUHFUXLWHG2U
SDUWLFLSDQWVPD\KDYHEHHQPRUHDJJUHVVLYHO\UHFUXLWHGDWWKHEHJLQQLQJWKDQDWWKH
HQGRIWKHGDWDFROOHFWLRQSHULRG)DFWRUVZKLFKPD\FRPSHQVDWHIRUWKHELDVHV
GLVFXVVHGDERYHLQFOXGH7KHKLJKUDWHRIUHWXUQLHYHU\IHZSDWLHQWVUHIXVHG
WRFRPSOHWHWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUH,QWKH*HUPDQKHDOWKV\VWHPSDWLHQWVDUHDEOHWR
FKRRVHIUHHO\ZKLFKGRFWRUWKH\ZRXOGOLNHWRVHHDQGLWLVSRVVLEOHWRFKDQJHGRFWRUV
LQWKHPLGGOHRIWUHDWPHQW7KHGRFWRUV¶QXUVHVGLGQRWNQRZWKHK\SRWKHVHV
EHLQJWHVWHG
7KHIDFWRUVGHVFULEHGDERYHFDQDIIHFWVFRUHVREWDLQHGIURPWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHV
7KHVHH[WUDQHRXVYDULDEOHVZHUHSDUWLDOO\FRQWUROOHGLQWKLVVWXG\:KHUHQRFRQWURO
ZDVSRVVLEOHWKHQWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVRIWKHUHVXOWVPXVWEHPDGHWDNLQJLQWR
DFFRXQWWKHVHZHDNQHVVHV
7KHWKUHDWVWRH[WHUQDOYDOLGLW\DUHUHIHUUHGWRDVLQWHUDFWLRQHIIHFWVLQYROYLQJWKH
WUHDWPHQWDQGVRPHRWKHUYDULDEOH7KHVHHIIHFWVUHSUHVHQWDSRWHQWLDOVSHFLILFLW\RI
WKHHIIHFWVRIWKHWUHDWPHQWWRDOLPLWHGVHWRIFRQGLWLRQV$OWKRXJKQRWUHDWPHQWSHU
VHLVLQYROYHGKHUHVRPHRIWKHVHIDFWRUVVWLOOMHRSDUGL]HWKHH[WHUQDOYDOLGLW\LH
UHSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVVRIWKLVVWXG\¶VUHVXOWV&DPSEHOO6WDQOH\
,QWHUDFWLRQHIIHFWVRIVHOHFWLRQELDVHVDQGWKHVWXG\YDULDEOHV
7KLVVWXG\5HFUXLWLQJSDUWLFLSDQWVIURPDPLGVL]HGVHPLUXUDOWRZQPD\DIIHFWWKH
UHSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVVRIWKHVDPSOH6LQFHWKLVWRZQGRHVQRWKDYHDQLQVWLWXWLRQRI
KLJKHUHGXFDWLRQDQGWKHQHDUHVWXQLYHUVLW\LVRYHUDQKRXUDZD\LWLVUHODWLYHO\
XQFRPPRQWRFROOHFWGDWDLQZDLWLQJURRPVLQWKLVSDUWRI*HUPDQ\6RPH
SDUWLFLSDQWVPD\KDYHIRXQGWKHLWHPVWREHWRRSHUVRQDOHJRQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ
6FDOH³,ZRXOGFRQVLGHUNLOOLQJP\VHOI´DQGWKHUHIRUHPD\QRWKDYHDQVZHUHG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
116
RSHQO\6RPHSDWLHQWVPD\KDYHEHHQFRQFHUQHGWKDWWKHLUWUHDWPHQWZRXOGEH
DIIHFWHGE\WKHLUUDWLQJVDOWKRXJKWKHLQVWUXFWLRQVH[SOLFLWO\VWDWHGWKDWWUHDWPHQW
ZRXOGQRWEHDIIHFWHG
5HDFWLYHHIIHFWVRIVWXG\DUUDQJHPHQWVZKLFKZRXOGSUHFOXGHJHQHUDOL]DWLRQDERXW
WKHHIIHFWRIWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHXSRQSHUVRQVEHLQJH[SRVHGWRLWLQRWKHUVHWWLQJV
7KLVVWXG\7KLVVWXG\GLGQRWFRQWUROIRUWKHVHNLQGVRIHIIHFWVDOWKRXJKLWLVSRVVLEOH
WKDWDSDUWLFLSDQWUHSRUWHGVWXG\GHWDLOVWRDVSRXVHDQGWKDWWKHVSRXVHDOVRFDPH
LQWKHSUDFWLFHDQGZDVUHFUXLWHGE\RIILFHVWDII
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
117
5(68/76
$VUHSRUWHGHDUOLHULQ$LPRIWKH6WXG\WKHSUREOHPORZEDFNSDLQLVDGGUHVVHGIURP
WKUHHGLVWLQFWSHUVSHFWLYHV7KH%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO0RGHOWKHUROHRIFRPRUELGLWLHVDQG
FDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDERXWGLVHDVHRQVHW7KHGDWDZHUHDQDO\]HGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHVH
WKUHHRUJDQL]LQJSULQFLSOHV+RZHYHUZKHQLWVHHPHGDSSURSULDWHWKHRUHWLFDOO\IRU
H[DPSOHWRWHVWZKHWKHUFKURQLFEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGUHSRUWRWKHUVRPDWLF
V\PSWRPVRUFRPRUELGLWLHVWKHGDWDFRYHULQJFRPRUELGLWLHVZHUHFRPELQHGLQWKH
VWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VHVRIWKHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOYDULDEOHVDQGRIWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQV
7KHGDWDDQDO\VHVDUHGLYLGHGLQWRWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO0RGHO
*HQHUDOGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDODQGFRQWUROJURXSV7HVWLQJIRU
GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHH[SHULPHQWDODQGFRQWUROJURXSV([SODLQLQJWKH
YDULDQFHLQFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ([SHULHQFH
&RPRUELGLWLHV&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDERXWGLVHDVHRQVHW6XPPDU\RIWKH
PDLQUHVXOWVEDVHGRQWKHUHVHDUFKK\SRWKHVHV$OOGDWDZHUHDQDO\]HGWKURXJKWKH
6$66WDWLVWLFDO3DFNDJH$QDOSKDOHYHORIZDVXVHGIRUDOOVWDWLVWLFDOWHVWV
UHSRUWHGEHORZ
*HQHUDO'HVFULSWLRQRIWKH([SHULPHQWDODQG&RQWURO*URXSV
6DPSOH6L]H0HDQ$JH(GXFDWLRQ6PRNLQJ+DELWV3K\VLFDO([HUFLVH+DELWV
7KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHWZRSDUWLFLSDQWJURXSVTXHVWLRQQDLUH³EDFNSDLQ´
H[SHULPHQWDOJURXSYHUVXVTXHVWLRQQDLUH³QREDFNSDLQ´FRQWUROJURXSZLOOEH
GHVFULEHGEHORZ
*HUPDQZRPHQDQG*HUPDQPHQQ ZLWKDPHDQDJHRI\HDUVVG
FRPSOHWHGWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHEDFNSDLQ*HUPDQZRPHQDQG*HUPDQ
PHQQ ZLWKDPHDQDJHRI\HDUVVG FRPSOHWHGWKH
TXHVWLRQQDLUHQREDFNSDLQIRUDWRWDOSDUWLFLSDQWVDPSOHRI1 7KH\RXQJHVW
SDUWLFLSDQWZDV\HDUVROGWKHROGHVWSDUWLFLSDQW\HDUV$ODUJHPDMRULW\RIWKH
SDUWLFLSDQWVKDGQRWFRPSOHWHGWKHLU$ELWXUQ FRPSDUHGWRQ ZKRKDG
VKRZQLQWKHWDEOHEHORZDVKLJKHGXFDWLRQYHUVXVORZHGXFDWLRQ1 SDUWLFLSDQWVDUHQRQVPRNHUVQ VPRNHUVDQGQ H[VPRNHUVRIWKH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
118
SDUWLFLSDQWVDPSOHUHSRUWHGH[HUFLVLQJPRUHWKDQKRXUVDZHHN7KHIROORZLQJ
WDEOHSUHVHQWVWKHIUHTXHQFLHVIRUJHQGHUDQGHGXFDWLRQVHSDUDWHO\IRUWKHEDFNSDLQ
JURXSDQGWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS
7DEOH*URXSIUHTXHQFLHV1 *URXS
1
)HPDOHV0DOHV
+LJK(GXFDWLRQ/RZ(GXFDWLRQ
%DFN3DLQ
1R%DFN3DLQ
7RWDO 3DLQ5HODWHG'HVFULSWLRQRIWKH3DUWLFLSDQW6DPSOH
&KURQLFLW\DQG,QWHQVLW\
&KURQLFLW\)URPWKHWRWDO1 SDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWHGVXIIHULQJIURPFKURQLF
SDLQLHSDLQGXUDWLRQRIVL[PRQWKVRUPRUHSDWLHQWVEDFNSDLQJURXSVXIIHU
IURPFKURQLFEDFNSDLQZKLOHGDWDIURPFKURQLFEDFNSDLQVXIIHUHUVZHUHFROOHFWHG
IURPWKHQREDFNSDLQTXHVWLRQQDLUH$PRUHGLIIHUHQWLDWHGSLFWXUHRIFKURQLFLW\FDQ
EHIRXQGLQWKHWDEOHEHORZ
7DEOH&KURQLFLW\RIWKH3DLQ([SHULHQFH
*URXS
1
:
: 0
!0
%DFN3DLQ
1R%DFN3DLQ
7RWDO 1RWH0LVVLQJYDOXHV VLJQLILHVZHHNVVLJQLILHVPRQWKV
1RWH1RPHDQYDOXHVFDQEHFDOFXODWHGIRUWKLVLWHPVLQFHLWLVUDWHGRQDQRPLQDO
VFDOH
,QWHQVLW\3DLQLQWHQVLW\ZDVUHSRUWHGRQD3RLQW/LNHUW6FDOHIURPµQRSDLQ¶WR
µXQEHDUDEOHSDLQ¶RIWKHSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHGH[WUHPHSDLQUDWLQJVRIZKLOH
DOPRVWKDOIRIWKHSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHGPRGHUDWHSDLQUDWLQJVRI7KHIUHTXHQFLHV
IRULQWHQVLW\FDQEHIRXQGEHORZ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
119
7DEOH,QWHQVLW\RIWKH3DLQ([SHULHQFH3RLQW/LNHUW6FDOH
QRSDLQ XQEHDUDEOHSDLQ
*URXS
1
0HDQ6' %DFN3DLQ
1R%DFN3DLQ
7RWDO 1RWH0LVVLQJYDOXHV 3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV
7KHIROORZLQJWDEOHVKRZVWKHVDPSOHVL]HVPHDQVVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVIRUWKH
VFDOHVXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\7KH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOH62&FRQWDLQVLWHPV
,WHPZDVUHPRYHGWRLQFUHDVHWKHDOSKDFRHIILFLHQWRIWKHVFDOHVHHEHORZWKH
'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHFRQWDLQVLWHPVDQGWKH-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOHFRQWDLQVLWHPV
,WHPZDVDOVRUHPRYHGWRLQFUHDVHWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHVFDOHVHHEHORZ6FDOH
LWHPVDUHSUHVHQWHGDERYHDQGDVIROGRXWVLQWKH$SSHQGL[
$VVHVVLQJ6FDOH5HOLDELOLW\ZLWK&RHIILFLHQW$OSKD6FDOHUHOLDELOLW\ZDVDVVHVVHGE\
FDOFXODWLQJFRHIILFLHQWDOSKD&URQEDFK,QRUGHUWRLQFUHDVHWKHUHOLDELOLW\RI
WKHVFDOHV6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHDQG-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQRQHLWHPIURPHDFKVFDOHZDV
UHPRYHGEDVHGRQH[WUHPHO\ORZLWHPWRWDOFRUUHODWLRQV)RUWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
6FDOHZLWKWKHUHPRYDORILWHP´,QJHQHUDO,KDYHFRQILGHQFHLQWKHVNLOOVDQGWKH
JRDOVRIRXUSROLWLFLDQVÚLW LQFUHDVHGWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHVFDOHWR
ZKLFKLVPRGHUDWHDQGDFFHSWDEOHFI6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV%HQ]9DQ'DPPH)HOGW
$PHODQJ)RUWKH-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOHZLWKWKHUHPRYDORILWHP´,GRQ¶W
KDYHPXFKFRQWURORYHUP\ZRUNVLWXDWLRQÚLW WKHUHOLDELOLW\LQFUHDVHGWR
1RVLQJOHLWHPWRWRWDOFRUUHODWLRQZDVH[WUHPHO\ORZIRUWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH
,QWHUFRUUHODWLRQV3HDUVRQFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQW3HDUVRQSURGXFWPRPHQW
FRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVZHUHFDOFXODWHGWRDVVHVVWKHQDWXUHRIWKHUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHVFDOHV7KHRUHWLFDOO\WKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHDQGMRE
VDWLVIDFWLRQZHUHH[SHFWHGWRDFWDVSURWHFWLYHIDFWRUVZKLFKZRXOGLPSO\DWOHDVWD
SRVLWLYHFRUUHODWLRQZLWKHDFKRWKHUDQGDQHJDWLYHFRUUHODWLRQZLWKGHSUHVVLRQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
120
$FFRUGLQJWRH[SHFWDWLRQVWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOHFRUUHODWHVVLJQLILFDQWO\DQG
QHJDWLYHO\ZLWKWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHU S7KHFRUUHODWLRQ
EHWZHHQWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOHDQGWKH-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOHLVVOLJKWEXW
SRVLWLYHDQGVLJQLILFDQWU S7KH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHVKRZVD
VLJQLILFDQWQHJDWLYHFRUUHODWLRQZLWK-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQU S
7DEOH0HDQV6WDQGDUG'HYLDWLRQV,QWHUFRUUHODWLRQVDQG&RHIILFLHQW$OSKD
5HOLDELOLW\(VWLPDWHVIRUWKH3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV
9DULDEOHV
0HDQ 6' 6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
'HSUHVVLRQ -RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
1RWHSSS
1RWH5HOLDELOLW\HVWLPDWHVDSSHDURQWKHGLDJRQDOLQSDUHQWKHVHV
1RWHQ 'LIIHUHQFHVLQJURXSVL]HVGXHWRPLVVLQJYDOXHV
3UHGLFWRU6FDOHVDQG3DLQ5HODWHG'HVFULSWLRQ/RJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVZHUHUXQ
RQWKHELQDU\FULWHULRQYDULDEOHVHJFKURQLFYHUVXVDFXWHKLJKLQWHQVLW\YHUVXVORZ
LQWHQVLW\DQGWKHSUHGLFWRUVFDOHV6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH'HSUHVVLRQ-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
5HVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHWDEOHEHORZ
7DEOH/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VHV3UHGLFWRU6FDOHVDQG3DLQ'HVFULSWLRQ
&KURQLFLW\
:DOG
3DUDPHWHU Q
GI
:DOG6WDWLVWLF
&RQILGHQFH/LPLWV
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
'HSUHVVLRQ -RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
1RWHS
7DEOH/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VHV3UHGLFWRU6FDOHVDQG3DLQ'HVFULSWLRQ
,QWHQVLW\
:DOG
3DUDPHWHU Q
GI
:DOG6WDWLVWLF
&RQILGHQFH/LPLWV
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
'HSUHVVLRQ -RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
1RWHS
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
121
$VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQKLJK'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHVFRUHVDQG
FKURQLFLW\:DOG6WDWLVWLF SDQGEHWZHHQKLJK'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH
VFRUHVDQGKLJKLQWHQVLW\:DOG6WDWLVWLF S1RVLJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHRUEHWZHHQ
FKURQLFLW\DQGMREVDWLVIDFWLRQ$QDO\VLVUHYHDOHGDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ
ORZ6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FRUHVDQGKLJKSDLQLQWHQVLW\:DOG6WDWLVWLF S
1RVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQSDLQLQWHQVLW\DQGWKH-RE
6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOH
*URXS'LIIHUHQFHVRQWKH3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV7KHSUHGLFWRUVFDOHVZHUHLQLWLDOO\WHVWHG
IRUQRUPDOLW\'DWDFROOHFWHGIRUDOOWKUHHVFDOHVZHUHIRXQGQRWWREHQRUPDOO\
GLVWULEXWHG7KHUHIRUHWKHPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHWZRJURXSVZHUHWHVWHG
WKURXJKWKH.UXVNDO:DOOLV7HVWDSURFHGXUHIRUQRQSDUDPHWULFGDWD0HDQVFRUHV
DQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVIRUWKHSUHGLFWRUVFDOHVHSDUDWHIRUEDFNSDLQDQGWKHQR
EDFNSDLQJURXSFDQEHIRXQGEHORZ
7DEOH0HDQVFRUHV6WDQGDUG'HYLDWLRQVIRU*URXS
%DFN3DLQYHUVXV1R%DFN3DLQRQWKH3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV
*URXS
0HDQ6FRUHV6'0HDQ6FRUHV6'0HDQ6FRUHV6'
62&6FDOH 'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH
-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOH
1R%DFN3DLQ
%DFN3DLQ
1RWHS
1RWH%DFN3DLQ*URXS62&VFDOHQ 'HSUHVVLRQVFDOHQ -RE
6DWLVIDFWLRQVFDOHQ 1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS62&VFDOHQ 'HSUHVVLRQVFDOHQ -RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
VFDOHQ 6LJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHEDFNSDLQDQGWKHQREDFNSDLQ
JURXSVRQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH.UXVNDO:DOOLV7HVW SWKLVILQGLQJ
FRQIRUPVWRWKHUHVHDUFKK\SRWKHVLVEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVKDGVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHU
'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHVFRUHVWKDQSDWLHQWVZLWKRXWEDFNSDLQ%DFNSDLQSDWLHQWVDOVRKDG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
122
ORZHUVFRUHVRQWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOHDQGRQWKH-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOH
KRZHYHUWKHVHGLIIHUHQFHVGLGQRWUHDFKVLJQLILFDQFH
2QDQLWHPEDVLVVLJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGRQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH
LWHPV³,DPOHVVLQWHUHVWHGLQP\ORYHUHODWLRQVKLSVWKDQ,XVHGWREH´.UXVNDO
:DOOLV7HVW S³(YHQZKHQ,WU\,FDQ¶WWKLQNVWUDLJKW´.UXVNDO
:DOOLV7HVW SDQG³,GRQ¶WKDYHDQ\HPRWLRQVDQ\PRUH´.UXVNDO
:DOOLV7HVW S1RRWKHUVLJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGRQ
DQLWHPEDVLVIRUWKHRWKHUWZRVFDOHV3OHDVHUHIHUWRWKHILJXUHVEHORZ
Figure 1: Sense of Coherence Scale: M ean Scores Betw een G roups a
B ack P ain G roup n = 139 N o B ack P ain G roup n = 111
4
0.98
3,5
1.07
1.19 1.14
1.09
3
1.29
2,5
M ean Scores
1.06
1.28
1.15
1.12
1.08
1.21
1.30
1.42 1.39
1.28
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
Item 1*
a
Item 2*
Item 3
Item 4
Item 6
Item 7*
Item 8
standard deviations are show n at the top
of the respective colum ns
B ack P ain G roup
Item 5*
N o significant m ean differences betw een groups.
N o B ack P ain G roup
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
123
Figure 2: Depression Scale: Mean Scores Between Groupsb
Back Pain Group n = 143
No Back Pain Group n = 110
0,9
.86
0,8
.90
.89
b
0,7
.74
Mean Scores
0,6
0,5
.70
.76
.60
0,4
.78
.68 .71
.53 .58
0,3
.52
.54
.59
.50
b
.57
.55
0,2
b
.45
0,1
.28 .35
.34
0
Item 1
b
Item 2
Item 3
Item 4
Item 5
Item 6
Item 7
Item 8
Item 9
Significant mean differences between groups: Item 8 (Kruskal-Wallis = 11.73; p < 0.001)
Item 10 (Kruskal-Wallis = 6.15; p < 0.05), Item 11 (Kruskal-Wallis = 5.53; p < 0.05
Back Pain Group
Item 10
Item 11
standard deviations are shown at the top
of the respective columns
No Back Pain Group
Figure 3: Job Satisfaction Scale: Mean Scores Between Groupsa
Back Pain Group n = 108 No Back Pain Group n = 94
4
0.96
1.09
3,5
1.08
1.17
1.11
1.22
1.17
2,5
Mean Scores
1.09
1.06
3
1.12
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
Item 1
a
Item 2
Item 4
Item 5
Item 6
standard deviations are shown at the top
of the respective columns
no significant differences between groups
Back Pain Group
No Back Pain Group
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
124
7HVWLQJIRU'LIIHUHQFHV:LWKLQDQG%HWZHHQWKH([SHULPHQWDO
DQG&RQWURO*URXSV
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS7RJHWKHU
7KHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVH[DPLQHGKHUHDUHDJHJHQGHUHGXFDWLRQFRPRUELGLWLHV
SUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVSDVWVPRNLQJDQGSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVH7KHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHV
DUHFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\'XHWRWKHQXPEHURI&KL6TXDUH7HVWVWKDWKDYHEHHQ
FDOFXODWHGRQO\WKHVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVDUHUHSRUWHGLQWKHWDEOHEHORZ6LJQLILFDQW&KL
6TXDUH7HVWVUXQEHWZHHQWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVFDQEHIRXQGLQWKH$SSHQGL[
7DEOH6XPPDU\7DEOHRI6LJQLILFDQW&KL6TXDUH7HVWV
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXSWRJHWKHU
9DULDEOHV
Q
GI
&KL6TXDUH S
&KURQLFLW\DQG,QWHQVLW\
&KURQLFLW\DQG$JH &KURQLFLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ &KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
,QWHQVLW\DQG*HQGHU
,QWHQVLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ
,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
1RWH7KHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGJHQGHUVPRNLQJDQGSK\VLFDO
H[HUFLVHZHUHQRWVLJQLILFDQW,QWHQVLW\DQGDJHVPRNLQJDQGSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVH
VKRZHGQRVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
125
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ
)RU&KURQLFLW\DQG,QWHQVLW\RIWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHPRVWRIWKHSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHG
DFXWHORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQQ ,QWKHDFXWHSDLQJURXSRIWKHSDWLHQWV
H[SHULHQFHORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQDQGKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQ,QWKHFKURQLFSDLQJURXS
RIWKHSDWLHQWVH[SHULHQFHORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQZKLOHH[SHULHQFHKLJK
LQWHQVLW\SDLQ6WDWHPHQW&KURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGWRUHSRUWKLJKHULQWHQVLW\SDLQ
WKDQDFXWHSDLQSDWLHQWV
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG,QWHQVLW\
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
$FXWH &KURQLF
7RWDO /RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO
&KURQLFLW\DQG$JH7KHQXPEHURISDWLHQWVUHSRUWLQJDFXWHSDLQUHPDLQVUHODWLYHO\
FRQVWDQWDFURVVWKHWKUHHDJHJURXSVUHVSHFWLYHO\$QRWKHUWUHQG
ZDVIRXQGIRUFKURQLFSDLQ,QWKHFKURQLFSDLQJURXSRIWKHSDWLHQWVDUHXQGHU
\HDUVRIDJHDUHEHWZHHQDQG\HDUVRIDJHRIWKHSDWLHQWVRYHU
\HDUVROG6WDWHPHQW&KURQLFSDLQLVUHSRUWHGPRUHRIWHQE\ROGHUSDWLHQWV!
\HDUVRIDJHWKDQE\\RXQJHUSDWLHQWV
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG$JH
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
$FXWH &KURQLF
7RWDO ²
! 7RWDO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
126
&KURQLFLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ$VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQFKURQLFSDLQ
DQGHGXFDWLRQRIWKHFKURQLFSDLQVXIIHUHUVKDGUHFHLYHGDORZHUHGXFDWLRQ
FRPSDUHGWRZLWKDKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ)RUDFXWHSDLQRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV
FDPHIURPWKHKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQSDUWLFLSDQWVDQGIURPWKHORZHUHGXFDWLRQ
SDUWLFLSDQWV6WDWHPHQW3DUWLFLSDQWVZLWKDORZHUHGXFDWLRQWHQGWRUHSRUWFKURQLF
SDLQPRUHWKDQSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKDKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
$FXWH &KURQLF
7RWDO /RZ(GXFDWLRQ
+LJK(GXFDWLRQ
7RWDO
&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW$VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQ
FKURQLFLW\DQGSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHV)RUFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHG
FRPRUELGLWLHVZKLOHUHSRUWHGQRWVXIIHULQJIURPDQRWKHULOOQHVVRIWKH
DFXWHSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHGSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVFRPSDUHGWRRIWKHDFXWHSDWLHQWV
UHSRUWHGQRFRPRUELGLWLHV6WDWHPHQW&KURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGWRUHSRUWSUHVHQW
FRPRUELGLWLHV
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
$FXWH &KURQLF
7RWDO 1R&RPRUELGLWLHV
&RPRUELGLWLHV
7RWDO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
127
&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW$VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVDOVRIRXQGEHWZHHQ
FKURQLFLW\DQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHV,QWKHFKURQLFSDLQJURXSRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV
UHSRUWHGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVZKLOHUHSRUWHGQRSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVRIWKH
DFXWHSDWLHQWVDOVRUHSRUWHGVXIIHULQJIURPSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVRIWKHDFXWH
SDWLHQWVUHSRUWHGQRFRPRUELGLWLHV6WDWHPHQW&KURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVDOVRWHQGWR
UHSRUWSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHV
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
$FXWH &KURQLF
7RWDO 1R&RPRUELGLWLHV
&RPRUELGLWLHV
7RWDO
,QWHQVLW\DQG*HQGHU7KHUHLVDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSDLQLQWHQVLW\
UDWLQJVDQGJHQGHURIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVH[SHULHQFLQJKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQDUH
ZRPHQFRPSDUHGZLWKRIWKHPDOHSDUWLFLSDQWV,QWKHORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQ
JURXSRIWKHZRPHQUHSRUWHGORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQZKLOHRIWKHPHQ
UHSRUWHGORZSDLQLQWHQVLW\6WDWHPHQW:RPHQUHSRUWKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQPRUHWKDQ
PHQ
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG*HQGHU
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO )HPDOH
0DOH 7RWDO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
128
,QWHQVLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ3DLQLQWHQVLW\DQGHGXFDWLRQDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\UHODWHG,QWKH
ORZHGXFDWLRQJURXSSDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWDOPRVWHTXDOO\ORZDQGKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQ
UHVSHFWLYHO\,QWKHKLJKHGXFDWLRQJURXSRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV
UHSRUWORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQUHSRUWKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQ6WDWHPHQW3DUWLFLSDQWV
ZLWKKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQWHQGWRUHSRUWORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQ7DEOH&KL6TXDUH
)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
/RZ(GXFDWLRQ
+LJK(GXFDWLRQ
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO 7RWDO
,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW6L[W\SHUFHQWRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWLQJKLJK
LQWHQVLW\SDLQDOVRUHSRUWSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVFRPSDUHGWRRIWKHKLJK
LQWHQVLW\SDLQSDWLHQWVZKRUHSRUWQRFRPRUELGLWLHV7KLVWUHQGLVUHYHUVHGLQWKHORZ
LQWHQVLW\SDLQJURXSKHUHRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWQRSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHV
ZKLOHUHSRUWVXIIHULQJIURPDWOHDVWRQHSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLW\6WDWHPHQW
3DUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWLQJKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQDOVRUHSRUWSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHV
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO 1R&RPRUELGLWLHV
&RPRUELGLWLHV
7RWDO
6XPPDU\&KURQLFSDLQLVVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQ6LJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSVZHUHDOVRIRXQGEHWZHHQFKURQLFSDLQVXIIHUHUVDQGKLJKHUDJHOHVV
HGXFDWLRQDQGUHSRUWHGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQWDQGSDVW+LJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQLV
VLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHIHPDOHJHQGHUORZHGXFDWLRQDQGSUHVHQW
FRPRUELGLWLHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
129
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXSVHSDUDWH
7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQH[DPLQHVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHV
FKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\DQGWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVFIVHSDUDWHO\IRUWKHEDFN
SDLQJURXSDQGWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS2QO\LQWKLVVHFWLRQDUHWKHUHVXOWVGLUHFWO\
UHODWHGWREDFNSDLQ7KHIROORZLQJWDEOHVXPPDUL]HVWKHVLJQLILFDQWFKLVTXDUH
UHVXOWV
7DEOH6XPPDU\7DEOHRI6LJQLILFDQW&KL6TXDUH7HVWV
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXSVHSDUDWH
9DULDEOHV
*URXS
Q
GI
9DOXH S
&KURQLFLW\DQG$JH%DFN3DLQ
&KURQLFLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ %DFN3DLQ
&KURQLFLW\DQG
1R%DFN3DLQ
&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
,QWHQVLW\DQG*HQGHU
%DFN3DLQ
,QWHQVLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ
%DFN3DLQ
,QWHQVLW\DQG
1R%DFN3DLQ
1R%DFN3DLQ
1R%DFN3DLQ
&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
,QWHQVLW\DQG
&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
,QWHQVLW\DQG6PRNLQJ
1RWH1RVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\ZKHQ
WKHJURXSVZHUHH[DPLQHGVHSDUDWHO\&KURQLFLW\DQGDJHVKRZQRVLJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSIRUWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS1RVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQG
EHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGJHQGHUIRUHLWKHUJURXS&KURQLFLW\ZDVQRWUHODWHGWR
HGXFDWLRQIRUWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS6PRNLQJDQGSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHKDELWVVKRZHG
QRQVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZLWKFKURQLFLW\
1RWH1RVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQSDLQLQWHQVLW\DQGDJHIRU
HLWKHUJURXS,QWHQVLW\DQGJHQGHUGLGQRWUHDFKVLJQLILFDQFHIRUWKHQREDFNSDLQ
JURXS(GXFDWLRQVKDUHVQRVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZLWKLQWHQVLW\IRUWKHQREDFNSDLQ
JURXS1RVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQLQWHQVLW\DQGFRPRUELGLWLHVSDVWRU
SUHVHQWH[LVWIRUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS,QWHQVLW\DQGVPRNLQJKDELWVVKRZHGQR
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
130
VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZLWKWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS3K\VLFDOH[HUFLVHKDELWVVKRZHGQR
VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZLWKLQWHQVLW\LQHLWKHUJURXS
,QWHUSUHWDWLRQ
&KURQLFLW\DQG$JH$VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQFKURQLFEDFNSDLQ
DQGDJHRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVRYHU\HDUVRIDJHUHSRUWFKURQLFEDFNSDLQ
RIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVEHWZHHQDQG\HDUVRIDJHUHSRUWHGFKURQLFEDFNSDLQ
RIWKHSDWLHQWVXQGHU\HDUVUHSRUWHGFKURQLFEDFNSDLQ,QWKHDFXWHSDLQJURXS
DUHRYHU\HDUVRIDJHEHWZHHQDQG\HDUVDQGRIWKH
SDUWLFLSDQWVXQGHU\HDUVUHSRUWHGDFXWHEDFNSDLQ6WDWHPHQW%DFNSDLQSDWLHQWV
RYHU\HDUVRIDJHDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRUHSRUWFKURQLFSDLQWKDQ\RXQJHUEDFNSDLQ
SDWLHQWV
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG$JH%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
$FXWH &KURQLF
7RWDO ±
! 7RWDO
&KURQLFLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFKURQLFEDFNSDLQDQGHGXFDWLRQ
LVVLJQLILFDQW,QWKHKLJKHGXFDWLRQJURXSUHSRUWHGDFXWHSDLQDQG
UHSRUWHGFKURQLFSDLQ)RUWKRVHSDUWLFLSDQWVUHFHLYLQJOHVVHGXFDWLRQUHSRUWHG
DFXWHSDLQFRPSDUHGWRZKRUHSRUWHGFKURQLFSDLQ6WDWHPHQW%DFNSDLQ
SDWLHQWVZLWKDKLJKHGXFDWLRQDUHOHVVOLNHO\WRUHSRUWFKURQLFSDLQUHODWLYHWREDFN
SDLQSDWLHQWVZLWKDORZHGXFDWLRQ
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ
%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
/RZ(GXFDWLRQ
$FXWH &KURQLF
7RWDO +LJK(GXFDWLRQ
7RWDO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
131
&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW(LJKW\ILYHSHUFHQWRIWKHFKURQLFSDLQVXIIHUHUV
WHQGHGWRUHSRUWSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVDQGRIWKRVHZLWKFKURQLFSDLQUHSRUWQR
FRPRUELGLWLHV7KLVWUHQGZDVUHYHUVHGIRUWKHDFXWHSDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGHGWR
UHSRUWQRFRPRUELGLWLHVZKLOHRIWKHPUHSRUWHGFRPRUELGLWLHV6WDWHPHQW
&KURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGWRUHSRUWSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHV
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
$FXWH &KURQLF
7RWDO 1R&RPRUELGLWLHV
&RPRUELGLWLHV
7RWDO
,QWHQVLW\DQG*HQGHU6L[W\HLJKWSHUFHQWRIWKHZRPHQUHSRUWHGLQWHQVHEDFNSDLQ
FRPSDUHGWRRIWKHPHQ)RUORZLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQRIWKHZRPHQ
UHSRUWHGORZLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQFRPSDUHGWRRIWKHPHQ6WDWHPHQW:RPHQ
ZLWKEDFNSDLQDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRUHSRUWKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQWKDQPHQ
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG*HQGHU%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO )HPDOHV
0DOHV 7RWDO
,QWHQVLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ7ZHQW\RQHSHUFHQWRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKDKLJKHU
HGXFDWLRQUHSRUWHGKLJKLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQFRPSDUHGWRZKRUHSRUWHGORZ
LQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQ,QWKHORZHGXFDWLRQJURXSMXVWRYHUKDOIRIWKH
SDUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGKLJKLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQZKLOHUDWHGWKHLUEDFNSDLQ
H[SHULHQFHWREHRIOHVVLQWHQVH6WDWHPHQW%DFNSDLQSDWLHQWVZLWKDKLJKHU
HGXFDWLRQDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRUHSRUWORZLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQWKDQKLJKLQWHQVLW\EDFN
SDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
132
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQ%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO /RZ(GXFDWLRQ
+LJK(GXFDWLRQ
7RWDO
,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW)RUW\VL[SHUFHQWRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWLQJ
FRPRUELGLWLHVDOVRUHSRUWHGKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWK
FRPRUELGLWLHVUHSRUWHGORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQ)RUWKRVHSDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWLQJQR
FRPRUELGLWLHVUHSRUWHGKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQFRPSDUHGWRZKRUHSRUWHGORZ
LQWHQVLW\SDLQ6WDWHPHQW3DUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWLQJORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQDUHPRUHOLNHO\WR
UHSRUWQRSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHV
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
1R&RPRUELGLWLHV &RPRUELGLWLHV
7RWDO
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO ,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW)RUWKHSDUWLFLSDQWJURXSUHSRUWLQJJHQHUDOSDLQ
QREDFNSDLQJURXSIRUW\VHYHQSHUFHQWRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHV
UHSRUWHGKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQSHUFHQWUHSRUWHGORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQ)RUWKRVH
SDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWLQJQRFRPRUELGLWLHVKDGKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQFRPSDUHGWR
ZLWKORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQ6WDWHPHQW7KHVDPHWUHQGFDQEHIRXQGZLWK
FRPRUELGLWLHVSDVWSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQDUHOHVVOLNHO\WRUHSRUWSDVW
FRPRUELGLWLHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
133
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
1R&RPRUELGLWLHV &RPRUELGLWLHV
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO 7RWDO
,QWHQVLW\DQG6PRNLQJ3DLQLQWHQVLW\DQGVPRNLQJVKRZHGDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLS
ZLWKRQHDQRWKHU)LIW\QLQHSHUFHQWRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZKRUHSRUWHGKLJKLQWHQVLW\
SDLQZHUHVPRNHUVZHUHQRQVPRNHUVDQGH[VPRNHUVRIWKH
VPRNHUVUHSRUWHGOHVVLQWHQVHSDLQZHUHQRQVPRNHUVDQGH[VPRNHUV
6WDWHPHQW6PRNHUVWHQGWRUHSRUWKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQ
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH,QWHQVLW\DQG6PRNLQJ
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO ([6PRNHU
6PRNHU
1RQ6PRNHU 7RWDO
6XPPDU\$VK\SRWKHVL]HGVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQFKURQLF
EDFNSDLQDQGKLJKHUDJHDQGORZHUHGXFDWLRQ+LJKLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQZDVDOVR
VLJQLILFDQWO\UHODWHGWRWKHIHPDOHJHQGHUDQGORZHGXFDWLRQ,QWKHQREDFNSDLQ
JURXSFKURQLFSDLQDQGUHSRUWHGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSDVWUHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHKLJK
LQWHQVLW\SDLQDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVWDOVRUHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFH
&RXQWHUWRH[SHFWDWLRQVFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWQRUSDVWGRQRWKDYHDVLJQLILFDQW
DVVRFLDWLRQZLWKEDFNSDLQ+LJKSDLQLQWHQVLW\DQGVPRNLQJZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
DVVRFLDWHGRQO\LQWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
134
&RPELQHG9DULDEOH&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH
$PRQJWKHFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHGORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQZKLOH
UHSRUWHGKLJKLQWHQVLW\&RPSDUHGZLWKWKHDFXWHSDLQSDWLHQWVUDWHGWKHLUSDLQ
WREHRIKLJKLQWHQVLW\DQGUDWHGWKHLUSDLQWREHRIORZLQWHQVLW\6WDWHPHQW
&KURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGWRUDWHWKHLUSDLQH[SHULHQFHWREHRIKLJKLQWHQVLW\
$VUHSRUWHGDERYHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\LVVWDWLVWLFDOO\
VLJQLILFDQW&KL6TXDUH GI S)LVFKHU¶V([DFW7HVW)XUWKHU
WKHUHLVDQRQVLJQLILFDQWSRVLWLYHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\
3HDUVRQFRUUHODWLRQU S 7DEOHFI7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&KURQLFLW\DQG,QWHQVLW\
)UHTXHQF\
5RZ3FW
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO
$FXWH &KURQLF
7RWDO &KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\IRUPHGDQHZYDULDEOHLQZKLFKSDUWLFLSDQWVUDWLQJKLJKRQ
ERWKFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\IRUPWKHVXEJURXSQ SDUWLFLSDQWVUDWLQJORZ
RQERWKFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\IRUPWKHVXEJURXSQ SDUWLFLSDQWVUDWLQJ
HLWKHUFKURQLFLW\RULQWHQVLW\KLJKEXWQRWERWKIRUPWKHVXEJURXSQ /RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV&KRQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\
%LQDU\UHVSRQVHYDULDEOHVIRUH[DPSOHFKURQLFRUDFXWHSDLQKLJKRUORZLQWHQVLW\
SDLQZHUHHVWDEOLVKHGLQWKLVVWXG\/RJLVWLFDQDO\VHVZHUHXVHGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKH
UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHUHVSRQVHSUREDELOLW\DQGWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHV9DULDEOHV
ZLWKDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHFKURQLFLW\LQWHQVLW\ZHUH
HVWDEOLVKHG
/RJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVZHUHUXQRQWKHGDWDIURPWKHWZRH[WUHPHJURXSV
6XEJURXS³KLJK´DQG6XEJURXS³ORZ´7KHSUHGLFWRUVYDULDEOHVDJH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
135
±!\HDUVRIDJHJHQGHUIHPDOHPDOHHGXFDWLRQKLJKORZFRPRUELGLWLHV
SUHVHQWDQGSDVW\HVQRVPRNLQJ\HVQRSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHKRXUVZHHNO\
!KRXUVZHHNO\GHSUHVVLRQKLJKORZMREVDWLVIDFWLRQKLJKORZDQG6HQVHRI
&RKHUHQFHKLJKORZZHUHWHVWHGLQGLYLGXDOO\ZLWKWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHFKURQLFLW\
LQWHQVLW\:KHQWKHYDULDEOHVUHDFKLQJVLJQLILFDQFHRQDQLQGLYLGXDOOHYHOZHUH
DQDO\]HGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\FXULRXVO\QRQHRIWKHPRGHOVUHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFH7KH
WDEOHEHORZVKRZVWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHLQGLYLGXDODQDO\VHV7KHFRQILGHQFHOLPLWVDUH
JLYHQRQWKHULJKWKDQGVLGHDQGWKHNH\WRKRZWKHYDULDEOHVDUHFRGHGFDQEH
IRXQGLQWKH$SSHQGL[DVDIROGRXW
7DEOH/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VHV&RPELQHG9DULDEOH
&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\
3DUDPHWHU
Q
GI
:DOG6WDW
:DOG
&RQILGHQFH/LPLWV
$JH *HQGHU
(GXFDWLRQ
&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
6PRNLQJ
3K\VLFDO([HUFLVH
'HSUHVVLRQ -RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
1RWH S S S
1RWH7KHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOH&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\DQGWKH
ELRSV\FKRVRFLDOYDULDEOHVSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHVPRNLQJKDELWV6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
ZHUHQRWVLJQLILFDQW
6XPPDU\+LJKHUDJHWKHIHPDOHJHQGHUDQGORZHGXFDWLRQDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHFRPELQHGYDULDEOHFKURQLFLW\LQWHQVLW\3UHVHQWDQGSDVW
FRPRUELGLWLHVDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFKURQLFLW\DQGKLJKSDLQLQWHQVLW\+LJK
VFRUHVRQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\UHODWHGWRFKURQLFLW\DQGKLJK
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
136
LQWHQVLW\SDLQUDWLQJV6LJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQGIRUORZ-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FRUHV
DQGFKURQLFLW\DQGKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQUHSRUWV
7HVWLQJIRU6LJQLILFDQFH
3UHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVHJDJHJHQGHUHGXFDWLRQWKDWUHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHZKHQ
WHVWHGIRUVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVRQDQLQGLYLGXDOEDVLVZHUHFRPELQHGDQGWKHQ
WHVWHGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\IRUVLJQLILFDQFHIRUHDFKRIWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHV)RUWKH
FULWHULRQYDULDEOHFKURQLFLW\QRFRPELQDWLRQRISUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVUHDFKHG
VLJQLILFDQFHZKHQWKHYDULDEOHVZHUHDQDO\]HGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\7KHVDPHUHVXOWV
ZHUHIRXQGIRULQWHQVLW\QRPRGHOUHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHZKHQWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHV
ZHUHDQDO\]HGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\5HVXOWVIRUWKHFRPELQHGYDULDEOH&KURQLFLW\
LQWHQVLW\FDQEHIRXQGDERYH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
137
([SODLQLQJWKH9DULDQFHLQ&KURQLFLW\DQG,QWHQVLW\
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV&KURQLFLW\
/RJLVWLFDQDO\VHVZHUHXVHGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHUHVSRQVH
SUREDELOLW\DQGWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHV9DULDEOHVZLWKDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKH
FULWHULRQYDULDEOHFKURQLFLW\ZHUHHVWDEOLVKHGXVLQJORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVZLWK
WKHPRGHOVHOHFWLRQVµIRUZDUG¶DQGµEDFNZDUG¶7KHIROORZLQJWDEOHVKRZVWKH
VLJQLILFDQWSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVIRUFKURQLFLW\
7DEOH/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV&KURQLFLW\
0RGHO)LW6WDWLVWLF 1
GI
:DOG6WDWLVWLF
&KURQLFLW\
S
:DOG
3DUDPHWHU
1
')
:DOG6WDWLVWLF
&RQILGHQFH/LPLWV
$JH (GXFDWLRQ
&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
1RWH S S S
6XPPDU\6LJQLILFDQWHIIHFWVRQWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHFKURQLFLW\ZHUHIRXQGIRU
KLJKHUDJHORZHUHGXFDWLRQDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSDVW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
138
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV,QWHQVLW\
7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHORJLVWLFDQDO\VHVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHWDEOHEHORZ
7DEOH/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLV,QWHQVLW\
0RGHO)LW6WDWLVWLF 1
GI
:DOG6WDWLVWLF
,QWHQVLW\
S
:DOG
3DUDPHWHU
1
')
:DOG6WDWLVWLF
&RQILGHQFH/LPLWV
([HUFLVH
'HSUHVVLRQ &RPRUELGLWLHV
SUHVHQW
1RWH S
6XPPDU\+HUHWKHYDULDEOHVZLWKDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOH
LQWHQVLW\ZHUHORZSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHKLJKHUGHSUHVVLRQVFRUHVDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQ
WKHSUHVHQW&RXQWHUWRH[SHFWDWLRQVQRQHRIWKHYDULDEOHVRYHUODSSHGIRUWKHWZR
FULWHULRQYDULDEOHVFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
139
([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ([SHULHQFH
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH%DFN3DLQ*URXSQ $VUHSRUWHGDERYHWKHSK\VLFLDQVZHUHUHTXHVWHGWRDVVHVVWKHSDWLHQWV¶
WHQGHQF\WRH[DJJHUDWHSDLQUHSRUWVRQILYHLWHPVDQGUHSRUWWKHSDWLHQWV¶
GLDJQRVLV7KHLWHPVDUHSUHVHQWHGDERYHFI0HWKRGDIROGRXWFDQEHIRXQGLQWKH
$SSHQGL[
$QDO\VHVRIWKHILUVWILYHLWHPVRIWKLVVFDOHVKRZHGRQHVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQSDLQLQWHQVLW\DQGWKHLWHPVNLQVHQVLWLYLW\³VNLQVHQVLWLYLW\LQWKHOXPEDU
VSLQHDUHDRUUHSRUWHGSDLQZKHQSUHVVLQJXSRQWKHKLSERQH6DFUXPRUXSSHU
EDFN´&KL6TXDUH SRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWLQJVNLQ
VHQVLWLYLW\DOVRUHSRUWHGORZLQWHQVLW\SDLQFRPSDUHGWRRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWK
VNLQVHQVLWLYLW\ZKRUHSRUWHGKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQ)RUWKHEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWJURXSQRW
UHSRUWLQJVNLQVHQVLWLYLW\UHSRUWHGORZLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQUHODWLYHWR
UHSRUWLQJKLJKLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQ6WDWHPHQW%DFNSDLQSDWLHQWVUHSRUWLQJVNLQ
VHQVLWLYLW\DOVRWHQGWRUHSRUWKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQ
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH3DLQ,QWHQVLW\DQG,WHP6NLQ6HQVLWLYLW\
)HTXHQF\
&RO3FW
1R6NLQ6HQVLWLYLW\ 6NLQ6HQVLWLYLW\
/RZ,QWHQVLW\
+LJK,QWHQVLW\
7RWDO 1RWH)UHTXHQF\PLVVLQJ 7RWDO
$VVHVVLQJWKH(IIHFWRIWKH3UHGLFWRU9DULDEOHVRQ3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVHV
7KHVHFRQGSDUWRIWKHLWHPVPHDVXULQJDQH[DJJHUDWHGSDLQUHDFWLRQLQFOXGHGWKH
SDWLHQWV¶GLDJQRVHVUHSRUWHGE\WKHLUSK\VLFLDQV2IWKHSRVVLEOHGLDJQRVHVILYH
GLDJQRVHVKDGDIUHTXHQF\HTXDOWRRUDERYHWKHFXWRIIYDOXHRIQ 7KH
IUHTXHQFLHVIRUILYHGLDJQRVHVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHWDEOHEHORZFI)LJXUHRQWKH
IROORZLQJSDJH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
140
7DEOH3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVHVIRUWKH&DXVHRI3DWLHQWV¶%DFN3DLQ
'LDJQRVLV
*HQHWLFPDOIRUPDWLRQ
Q
+HUQLDWHGGLVFZLWKRXWQHXUDOGDPDJH +HUQLDWHGGLVFZLWKQHXUDOGDPDJH
'HJHQHUDWLRQ
3V\FKRVRPDWLFRULJLQ
Figure 4: Physician's Diagnoses of Back Pain Origin
n = 154
Psychosomatic
5%
Degeneration
53%
Genetic Malformation
23%
Herniated disk w/o neural
damage
10%
Herniated disk w/neural
damage
9%
7KHELQDU\YDULDEOHVJHQGHUIHPDOHPDOHHGXFDWLRQKLJKORZFRPRUELGLWLHV
SUHVHQWSDVW\HVQRVPRNHUH[VPRNHUVPRNHUQRQVPRNHUUHJXODUSK\VLFDO
H[HUFLVHKRXUVDZHHN! KRXUVDZHHNZHUHDQDO\]HGWKURXJK
'LDJQRVHV[3UHGLFWRU9DULDEOH&KL6TXDUH7HVWVRI,QGHSHQGHQFH
*HQGHU$QDO\VHVUHYHDOHGDVPDOOEXWVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQJHQGHUDQG
WKHGLDJQRVLV³SV\FKRVRPDWLFRULJLQ´&KLVTXDUH SRIWKH
IHPDOHVZLWKEDFNSDLQGLGQRWUHFHLYHWKHGLDJQRVLV³SV\FKRVRPDWLFRULJLQÍURP
WKHLUSK\VLFLDQVRIWKHIHPDOHEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVGLGUHFHLYHWKLVGLDJQRVLVIRU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
141
WKHFDXVHRIWKHLUSDLQ1RQHRIWKHPHQZHUHGLDJQRVHGZLWKWKHFDXVHRIEDFNSDLQ
EHLQJRISV\FKRVRPDWLFRULJLQ6WDWHPHQW:KHQWKHFDXVHRIEDFNSDLQLVGLDJQRVHG
DVSV\FKRVRPDWLFSK\VLFLDQVWHQGWRJLYHWKLVGLDJQRVLVPRUHWRZRPHQWKDQPHQ
3OHDVHUHIHUWRWKHFKLVTXDUHIUHTXHQF\WDEOHEHORZ
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH*HQGHUDQG3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVLV
³3V\FKRVRPDWLFRULJLQ´
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
)HPDOH
1RWWKLV'LDJQRVLV 3V\FKRVRPDWLF
7RWDO 0DOH 7RWDO
5HVXOWVVKRZHGWKDWJHQGHUDQGWKHGLDJQRVHVJHQHWLFPDOIRUPDWLRQKHUQLDWHGGLVF
ZLWKRXWQHXUDOGDPDJHKHUQLDWHGGLVFZLWKQHXUDOGDPDJHDQGGHJHQHUDWLRQZHUH
DOOQRQVLJQLILFDQW
(GXFDWLRQ1RQHRIWKHFKLVTXDUHWHVWVUHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHIRUHGXFDWLRQ
&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW$QDO\VHVUHYHDOHGQRQVLJQLILFDQWFKLVTXDUHDVVRFLDWLRQV
EHWZHHQSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVDQGWKHSK\VLFLDQV¶GLDJQRVHV
&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW1RQHRIWKHFKLVTXDUHWHVWVUHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHIRUSDVW
FRPRUELGLWLHV
6PRNLQJ1RQVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQVPRNLQJDQGWKH
SK\VLFLDQV¶GLDJQRVHV
3K\VLFDO([HUFLVH&KLVTXDUHDQDO\VHVUHYHDOHGDQRQVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHDQGWKHSK\VLFLDQV¶GLDJQRVHV
6XPPDU\&KLVTXDUHDQDO\VHVVKRZHGRQHVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQ:KHQSK\VLFLDQV
GHWHUPLQHGWKHFDXVHRIEDFNSDLQWREHRISV\FKRVRPDWLFRULJLQWKH\WHQGHGWRJLYH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
142
WKLVGLDJQRVLVPRUHWRZRPHQWKDQPHQ1RQHRIWKHRWKHU&KL6TXDUHDQDO\VHV
UHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFH
7KHYDULDEOHVPHDVXUHGRQDQLQWHUYDOVFDOHDJH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHGHSUHVVLRQ
MREVDWLVIDFWLRQZHUHDQDO\]HGXVLQJIDFWRULDO$129$VZLWKEHWZHHQJURXSV
IDFWRUVGLDJQRVHV7KHDQDO\VLVRIWKHSK\VLFLDQV¶GLDJQRVHVDQGDJHUHYHDOHGD
VLJQLILFDQWPDLQHIIHFWIRU³GHJHQHUDWLRQ´) S7KHEDFN
SDLQSDWLHQWVZKRUHFHLYHGWKLVGLDJQRVLVDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ROGHUWKDQWKRVHZKRZHUH
QRWGLDJQRVHGZLWKVSLQDOGHJHQHUDWLRQ7KLVILQGLQJFRQIRUPVWRELRPHGLFDO
FRQVLGHUDWLRQV6SHFLILFDOO\WKHQDWXUHRIWKHGLDJQRVLV³GHJHQHUDWLRQ´LVVLPSO\
ZHDUDQGWHDURQWKHVSLQHIURP\HDUVRIIRUH[DPSOHEDGSRVWXUHRUUHSHWLWLYH
PRYHPHQWV1RQHRIWKHRWKHUGLDJQRVHVVKRZHGVLJQLILFDQWPDLQHIIHFWV7KH
IROORZLQJWDEOHVXPPDUL]HVWKHUHVXOWV
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVHVDQG$JH
6RXUFH
GI
7\SH,,,66 7\SH,,,06 )
5
*HQHWLF0DOIRUPDWLRQ
+HUQLDWHG'LVFZR
+HUQLDWHG'LVFZ
'HJHQHUDWLRQ
3V\FKRVRPDWLF
1RWH1 S
7KHIDFWRULDO$129$VIRUWKHSK\VLFLDQV¶GLDJQRVHVDQGWKH6FDOHV6HQVHRI
&RKHUHQFH) S'HSUHVVLRQ) S
DQG-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ) SZHUHDOOQRQVLJQLILFDQW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
143
&RPRUELGLWLHV
)UHTXHQFLHV
7KHILJXUHRQWKHIROORZLQJSDJHVKRZVWKHVHOIUHSRUWHGIUHTXHQFLHVIRU
FRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVW7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVDUH
DOOHUJLHVQ KHDUWEXUQQ DUWKULWLVQ DQGGLJHVWLYH
FRPSOLFDWLRQVQ )RUSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVWKHVDPHFRPRUELGLWLHVZHUHPRVW
LPSRUWDQWEXWLQDVOLJKWO\GLIIHUHQWRUGHUDOOHUJLHVQ GLJHVWLYHFRPSOLFDWLRQV
Q KHDUWEXUQQ DUWKULWLVQ /LNHORZEDFNSDLQWKHVHVRPDWLF
V\PSWRPVDUHGHILQLWHO\LUULWDWLQJDQGPDNHOLIHXQFRPIRUWDEOHWKH\DUHKRZHYHU
QRWOLIHWKUHDWHQLQJ7KHKLJKIUHTXHQFLHVDUHGXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUH
LQVWUXFWHGWRPDUNRQHRUPRUHFRPRUELGLWLHVZKHQDSSOLFDEOH1RREMHFWLYHFRQWURO
ZDVUXQWRFRQILUPWKHVHVHOIUHSRUWHGGLDJQRVHVLHJHQHUDOSUDFWLWLRQHUVZHUHQRW
UHTXHVWHGWRFRQILUPWKHGLDJQRVHV
)URPWKHEDFNSDLQJURXSQ SDUWLFLSDQWVUHSRUWHGSUHVHQWO\VXIIHULQJIURPDW
OHDVWRQHRWKHUFRPRUELGLW\FRPSDUHGWRQ SDUWLFLSDQWVIURPWKHQREDFNSDLQ
JURXS6HOIUHSRUWHGFRPRUELGLWLHVGHFOLQHLQWKHSDVWQ SDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVIRU
WKHEDFNSDLQJURXSDQGIRUWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXSQ 7DEOH)UHTXHQF\7DEOHIRU&RPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQWDQGLQWKHSDVWVHSDUDWH
IRUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXSDQGWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS
*URXS
Q
3UHVHQW
1R%DFN3DLQ
7RWDO %DFN3DLQ
3DVW RUPRUH
RUPRUH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
144
Figure 5: Comorbidites: Frequencies
Self-Reported Comorbidities*, Present n = 260, Past n = 234
50
45
40
Frequencies
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
th
er
O
pl
ai
nt
s
D
ig
e
st
iv
e
C
om
rs
ig
h
Bl
oo
d
Pr
es
su
re
lc
e
U
ea
rtb
ur
n
n
Past
H
Present
H
is
rit
ep
re
ss
io
D
Ar
th
hm
a
As
t
rg
ie
s
Al
le
ve
r
Li
n
es
et
D
ys
fu
nc
tio
ia
b
Th
ym
us
D
Bl
oo
d
is
ea
se
H
ea
rt
D
C
an
c
er
0
* Participants were instructed to mark all comorbidities that applied,
i.e., more than one answer was possible.
&KL6TXDUH7HVWRI,QGHSHQGHQFH&RPRUELGLWLHV3UHVHQWDQG3DVW
%DFN3DLQDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXSVWRJHWKHU
$VUHSRUWHGDERYHFIVLJQLILFDQWFKLVTXDUHUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQ
FRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGFKURQLFLW\DQGEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHVSDVWDQGFKURQLFLW\
$VFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGWRUHSRUWRYHUDOOPRUHFRPRUELGLWLHVSDLQSDWLHQWVZLWK
KLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQWHQGWRUHSRUWPRUHSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHV7KHVHUHODWLRQVKLSVDUH
DOVRVLJQLILFDQWFIDERYH7KLVWUHQGGLGQRWDSSHDUIRUWKHFRPRUELGLWLHVSDVWDQG
LQWHQVLW\ZKHQERWKJURXSVZHUHDQDO\]HGWRJHWKHUQRQVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQ
7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDJHDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQWLVVLJQLILFDQW&KL
VTXDUH6WDWLVWLF GI SEXWQRWIRUFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSDVW,Q
DFFRUGDQFHZLWKH[SHFWDWLRQVSDLQSDWLHQWV\RXQJHUWKDQ\HDUVRIDJHUHSRUWHG
OHVVIUHTXHQWO\SUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHEHWZHHQDQG
\HDUVRIDJHWKDQSDLQSDWLHQWVRYHU\HDUVRIDJH,QWKHJURXS
UHSRUWLQJQRFRPRUELGLWLHVWKHQXPEHURIVXEMHFWVLQHDFKDJHJURXSUHPDLQHG
UHODWLYHO\HTXDO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
145
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQG$JH
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
&RO3FW
1R&RPRUELGLWLHV &RPRUELGLWLHV
±
! 7RWDO 7RWDO
7KHUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVWDQGJHQGHUZHUHQRW
VLJQLILFDQW1RVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQG
SDVWDQGHGXFDWLRQSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHDQGVPRNLQJKDELWV
6XPPDU\
,QJHQHUDOSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQDQGROGHUSDWLHQWV!\HDUV
RIDJHWHQGWRUHSRUWVLJQLILFDQWO\PRUHFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVWWKDQ
SDWLHQWVZLWKDFXWHSDLQDQG\RXQJHUSDWLHQWVZKHQDQDO\]LQJWKHWZRH[SHULPHQWDO
JURXSVWRJHWKHU7ZRH[FHSWLRQVWRWKLVWUHQGZHUHIRXQGIRUFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKH
SDVWZLWKLQWHQVLW\DQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVZLWKDJH1RVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZHUH
IRXQGEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWRUSDVWZLWKJHQGHUHGXFDWLRQSK\VLFDO
H[HUFLVHDQGVPRNLQJKDELWV
&KL6TXDUH7HVWVRI,QGHSHQGHQFH&RPRUELGLWLHV
([SHULPHQWDODQG&RQWURO*URXSVVHSDUDWH
$VUHSRUWHGDERYHFIQRVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHV
SUHVHQWDQGSDVWDQGFKURQLFLW\RUEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVWDQG
LQWHQVLW\ZHUHIRXQGIRUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS+RZHYHULQWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS
VLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVDQG
EHWZHHQLQWHQVLW\DQGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQWDQGSDVW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
146
$JHDQGSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWVKRZHGDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLS&KLVTXDUH
6WDWLVWLF GI SIRUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS(LJKWHHQSHUFHQWRIWKH
EDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHUHSRUWHGSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHV
EHWZHHQWKHDJHVRIDQG\HDUVFRPSDUHGWRRYHU\HDUVRIDJH,QWKH
JURXSRIEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVZLWKQRFRPRUELGLWLHVWKHIUHTXHQFLHVDQGSHUFHQWDJHV
UHPDLQUHODWLYHO\HTXDO6WDWHPHQW2OGHUSDWLHQWVUHSRUWHGPRUHFRPRUELGLWLHVQ UHODWLYHWR\RXQJHURQHV
7DEOH&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW$JH
%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
1R&RPRUELGLWLHV &RPRUELGLWLHV
7RWDO
!
7RWDO 1RVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZHUHIRXQGIRUWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS$JHDQG
FRPRUELGLWLHVSDVWVKRZHGQRVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLS1RVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVIRUWKH
SUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVJHQGHUHGXFDWLRQVPRNLQJSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHKDELWVDQG
FRPRUELGLWLHVSDVWRUSUHVHQWZHUHIRXQG
6XPPDU\$VSUHGLFWHGVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQKLJKHUDJHDQG
SUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS7KHUHZHUHQRVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVIRXQG
EHWZHHQDJHDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVSDVWLQWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS)RUWKHQREDFNSDLQ
JURXSQRVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWRUSDVWDQG
DJH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
147
/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VHVIRU&RPRUELGLWLHV
/RJLVWLFDQDO\VHVZHUHXVHGWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHUHVSRQVH
SUREDELOLW\DQGWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHV9DULDEOHVZLWKDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKH
YDULDEOHFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVWZHUHHVWDEOLVKHGXVLQJORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQ
DQDO\VHVZLWKWKHPRGHOVHOHFWLRQVµIRUZDUG¶DQGµEDFNZDUG¶7KHIROORZLQJWDEOH
VKRZVWKHVLJQLILFDQWSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVIRUFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVW
7DEOH/RJLVWLF5HJUHVVLRQ$QDO\VLVIRU&RPRUELGLWLHV
3DVW
0RGHO)LW6WDWLVWLF GI
:DOG6WDWLVWLF
:DOG6WDWLVWLF
&RPRUELGLWLHV
3UHVHQW
3DVWE 3UHVHQWD
3DUDPHWHU
')
:DOG6WDW
&RQI/LPLWV :DOG6WDW
&RQI/LPLWV
$JH 'HSUHVVLRQ 1RWHSSS
1RWHDQ EQ 6XPPDU\6LJQLILFDQWHIIHFWVRQWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHVFRPRUELGLWLHVSDVWDQG
SUHVHQWZHUHIRXQGIRUKLJKHUDJHDQGKLJKHU'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHVFRUHV%RWK
FRQIRUPWRH[SHFWDWLRQV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
148
Figure 6: Causal Attributions About Disease Onset: Back Pain, Cancer, Heart Disease
Mean Scores1 Items 1 - 8
Back Pain n = 187, Cancer n = 144, Heart Disease n = 146
5
4,5
4
Mean Scores
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
1 Dissatisfaction
2 Stressed out
3 Disappointment
4 Family
problems
5 Anxieties
6 Hopelessness
1
Back Pain
Cancer
Heart Disease
7 Time pressure
8 Loss
For standard deviations please
refer to Table 47.
Figure 7: Causal Attributions About Disease Onset: Back Pain, Cancer, Heart Disease
Mean Scores1 for Items 9 - 16
Back Pain n = 187, Cancer n = 144, Heart Disease n = 146
4,5
4
3,5
Mean Scores
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
9 No anger
10 Loneliness
11 Selfless
12 No emotions
13 Expectations 14 Sensitiveness
1
Back Pain
Cancer
Heart Disease
15 Depressed
For standard deviations please
refer to Table 47.
16 Life events
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
149
,WHPV$VVHVVLQJ&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
0HDQV,WHP%DVLV
2QWKH$WWULEXWLRQ6FDOHIRUGLVHDVHRQVHWPHDQVFRUHVZHUHFRQVLVWHQWO\KLJKHU
DQGWKHVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVFRQVLVWHQWO\ORZHUIRUKHDUWGLVHDVHWKDQIRUFDQFHURU
EDFNSDLQ&DQFHUZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRILWHPVREWDLQHGWKHVHFRQG
KLJKHVWPHDQVFRUHVZKLOHEDFNSDLQZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQVPHQWLRQHGDERYHUHFHLYHG
WKHORZHVWPHDQVFRUHV,QRWKHUZRUGVIDFWRUVVXFKDV³-REGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´
³5HFXUULQJDQ[LHWLHVDERXWWKHIXWXUH´³+RSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ´DQG
³&RQVWDQWVWUHVVDQGWLPHSUHVVXUH´DUHFRQVLGHUHGWREHLPSRUWDQWYDULDEOHVIRUWKH
RQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVHPRUHVRWKDQIRUWKHRQVHWRIFDQFHURUIRUWKHRQVHWRIEDFN
SDLQ,QLWLDOO\WKLVILQGLQJVHHPVWRFRQWUDGLFWSUHYLRXVUHVXOWVLQZKLFKDPRUH
GLIIHUHQWLDWHGSHUVSHFWLYHKDVEHHQSURSDJDWHG)RUH[DPSOH³+LJKH[SHFWDWLRQVIRU
RQHVHOI´DQG³&RQVWDQWVWUHVVDQGWLPHSUHVVXUHÚHODWHWRKHDUWGLVHDVHZKLOH
³,QDELOLW\WRH[SUHVVIXU\DQGDQJHU´³/RQHOLQHVVDQGORVVRIVRFLDOFRQWDFWV´DQG
³&RQVWDQWO\LJQRULQJRQH¶VRZQQHHGVÚHODWHWRFDQFHU)RUEDFNSDLQRQVHW
³&RQWLQXRXVGHSUHVVHGPRRG´DQG³-REGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´KDYHEHHQLPSRUWDQW
SUHGLFWRUVLQWKHSDVW7KHIROORZLQJWDEOHVKRZVWKHPHDQVVFRUHVIRUHDFKLWHP
VHSDUDWHO\IRUHDFKRIWKHWKUHHGLVHDVHV7KHWZRILJXUHVRQWKHSUHFHGLQJSDJHV
PDNHFOHDUWKHFRQVLVWHQWO\KLJKHUPHDQVIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH7RHQKDQFHFODULW\WKH
VWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVIRUWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQLWHPVFRUHVFDQEHIRXQGLQ7DEOH
QRWLQWKHILJXUHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
150
7DEOH&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV0HDQ6FRUHVDQG6WDQGDUG'HYLDWLRQVUHSRUWHGRQ
DQLWHPEDVLV
0HDQ6FRUH6'
,WHP %DFN3DLQQ &DQFHUQ +HDUW'LVHDVHQ 0HDQ6FRUH6'0HDQ6FRUH6'
³'LVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´
³6WUHVVHGRXW´
³'LVDSSRLQWPHQW´
³)DPLO\3UREOHPV´
³$Q[LHWLHV´
³+RSHOHVVQHVV´ ³7LPHSUHVVXUH´ ³/RVV´
³1RDQJHU´
³/RQHOLQHVV´
³6HOIOHVV´
³1RHPRWLRQV´ ³([SHFWDWLRQV´ ³6HQVLWLYHQHVV´ ³'HSUHVVHG´
³/LIHHYHQWV´
1RWHLWHPVPHDVXULQJEDFNSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
151
8QLYDULDWH$QDO\VHV,WHPV$VVHVVLQJ&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW2QVHWRI%DFN
3DLQ&DQFHUDQG+HDUW'LVHDVHDQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
8QLYDULDWHDQDO\VHVZHUHUXQWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHLWHPV
DVVHVVLQJFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW0HDQVDQGVWDQGDUG
GHYLDWLRQVIRUWKHDWWULEXWLRQLWHPVFDQEHIRXQGLQ7DEOH7KHUHLVDVLJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVDQGWKHDWWULEXWLRQVIRUEDFNSDLQLWHPV
³-REGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´³&RQVWDQWSUREOHPVLQWKHIDPLO\´³5HFXUULQJDQ[LHWLHV
DERXWWKHIXWXUH´³/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRUGLYRUFH´³,QDELOLW\WR
H[SUHVVIXU\DQGDQJHU´³2IWHQQRWVKRZLQJHPRWLRQVVXFKDVVRUURZDQG
GLVDSSRLQWPHQW´³&RQWLQXRXVHPRWLRQDOLQVWDELOLW\DQGVHQVLWLYHQHVV´$QDO\VHV
LQGLFDWHWKDWWKHUHLVQRVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRU
FDQFHUDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQW6LPLODUO\DQDO\VHVVKRZHGWKDWQR
VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVH[LVWEHWZHHQFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRUKHDUWGLVHDVHDQG
FRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQW5HVXOWVDUHVKRZQLQWKHWDEOHEHORZIRUDOOWKUHH
GLVHDVHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
152
7DEOH8QLYDULDWH$QDO\VHV$VVHVVLQJWKH5HODWLRQVKLS%HWZHHQ&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQ
$ERXW2QVHWRI%DFN3DLQ&DQFHU+HDUW'LVHDVHDQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQW
%DFN3DLQ
&DQFHU
+HDUW'LVHDVH
:DOG :DOG :DOG ,WHP³'LVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´
,WHP³6WUHVVHGRXW´
,WHP³'LVDSSRLQWPHQW´ ,WHP³)DPLO\SUREOHPV ´
,WHP³$Q[LHWLHV´ ,WHP³+RSHOHVVQHVV´
,WHP³7LPHSUHVVXUH´
,WHP³/RVV´
,WHP³1RDQJHU´ ,WHP³/RQHOLQHVV´
,WHP³6HOIOHVV´ ,WHP³1RHPRWLRQV´
,WHP³([SHFWDWLRQV´
,WHP³6HQVLWLYHQHVV´
,WHP³'HSUHVVHG´
,WHP³/LIHHYHQWV´
3DUDPHWHU
1RWHSSGI 1RWH%DFNSDLQQ ±&DQFHUQ ±+HDUWGLVHDVHQ %LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
153
8QLYDULDWH$QDO\VHV,WHPV$VVHVVLQJ&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW2QVHWRI%DFN
3DLQ&DQFHUDQG+HDUW'LVHDVHDQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRUGLVHDVHRQVHWEDFNSDLQFDQFHU
KHDUWGLVHDVHDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSDVWZHUHDVVHVVHGWKURXJKXQLYDULDWH
DQDO\VHV0HDQVDQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVIRUWKHDWWULEXWLRQLWHPVFDQEHIRXQGLQ
7DEOH,QWKLVVHULHVRIWHVWVRQO\,WHP³2IWHQQRWVKRZLQJHPRWLRQVVXFKDV
VRUURZDQGGLVDSSRLQWPHQWÚHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHIRUWKHEDFNSDLQDWWULEXWLRQV
,WHPV³+RSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ´DQG³/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRU
GLYRUFHÚHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHIRUWKHKHDUWGLVHDVHDWWULEXWLRQV1RVLJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSDVWDQGFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQV
DERXWRQVHWRIFDQFHU7KHIROORZLQJWDEOHSUHVHQWVUHVXOWVRIWKHDQDO\VHVEHWZHHQ
FDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDERXWGLVHDVHRQVHWDQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
154
7DEOH8QLYDULDWH$QDO\VHV$VVHVVLQJWKH5HODWLRQVKLS%HWZHHQ&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQ
$ERXW2QVHWRI%DFN3DLQ&DQFHU+HDUW'LVHDVHDQG&RPRUELGLWLHVSDVW
%DFN3DLQ
&DQFHU
+HDUW'LVHDVH
:DOG :DOG :DOG ,WHP³'LVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´
,WHP³6WUHVVHGRXW´
,WHP³'LVDSSRLQWPHQW´ ,WHP³)DPLO\SUREOHPV´ ,WHP³$Q[LHWLHV´ ,WHP³+RSHOHVVQHVV´
,WHP³7LPHSUHVVXUH´
,WHP³/RVV´
,WHP³1RDQJHU´ ,WHP³/RQHOLQHVV´
,WHP³6HOIOHVV´ ,WHP³1RHPRWLRQV´
,WHP³([SHFWDWLRQV´
,WHP³6HQVLWLYHQHVV´
,WHP³'HSUHVVHG´
,WHP³/LIHHYHQWV´
3DUDPHWHU
1RWHSGI 1RWH%DFNSDLQQ ±&DQFHUQ ±+HDUWGLVHDVHQ 6XPPDU\,QFRPSDULVRQWRFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSDVWRQHVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLS
FDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDERXWEDFNSDLQDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQWVKRZHGVHYHQ
VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSV7KHLWHPV³-REGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´,WHP³&RQVWDQWSUREOHPV
LQWKHIDPLO\´,WHP³/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRUGLYRUFH´,WHPKDYH
EHHQVKRZQWREHUHODWHGWREDFNSDLQLQSDVWUHVHDUFK³5HFXUULQJDQ[LHWLHVDERXW
WKHIXWXUH´,WHP³,QDELOLW\WRH[SUHVVIXU\DQGDQJHU´,WHP³2IWHQQRW
VKRZLQJHPRWLRQVVXFKDVVRUURZDQGGLVDSSRLQWPHQW´,WHPDQG³&RQWLQXRXV
HPRWLRQDOLQVWDELOLW\DQGVHQVLWLYHQHVV´,WHPKDYHQRWEHHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
EDFNSDLQRQVHWLQWKHSDVW+HUHWKHVHLWHPVDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\UHODWHGWR
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
155
FRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQWDQGFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDERXWEDFNSDLQRQVHW2QO\,WHP
³2IWHQQRWVKRZLQJHPRWLRQVVXFKDVVRUURZDQGGLVDSSRLQWPHQWÚHDFKHG
VLJQLILFDQFHIRUFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSDVWDQGFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQDERXWEDFNSDLQ
RQVHW6LJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSDVWDQGFDXVDO
DWWULEXWLRQVDERXWKHDUWGLVHDVHZHUHIRXQGIRU³+RSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ´,WHP
DQG³/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRUGLYRUFH´,WHP7KHVHLWHPV
DUHPRVWRIWHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKRQVHWRIFDQFHU1RVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZHUH
IRXQGIRUFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQDERXWFDQFHURQVHWDQGFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWRUSDVW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
156
3ULQFLSDO&RPSRQHQWV$QDO\VLV
5HVSRQVHVWRWKHLWHPVDVVHVVLQJFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQIRUGLVHDVHRQVHWEDFNSDLQ
FDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVHZHUHVXEMHFWHGWRDSULQFLSDOFRPSRQHQWDQDO\VLVXVLQJRQHV
DVSULRUFRPPXQDOLW\HVWLPDWHV7KHSULQFLSDOD[LVPHWKRGZDVXVHGWRH[WUDFWWKH
FRPSRQHQWVDQGWKLVZDVIROORZHGE\DYDULPD[RUWKRJRQDOURWDWLRQ
%DFN3DLQ
2QO\WKHILUVWWZRFRPSRQHQWVGLVSOD\HGHLJHQYDOXHVJUHDWHUWKDQWKHVHILUVWWZR
FRPSRQHQWVZHUHUHWDLQHGIRUWKHURWDWLRQ&RPELQHGFRPSRQHQWVDQG
DFFRXQWHGIRURIWKHWRWDOYDULDQFH
4XHVWLRQQDLUHLWHPVDQGFRUUHVSRQGLQJIDFWRUORDGLQJVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHWDEOH
EHORZ,QLQWHUSUHWLQJWKHURWDWHGIDFWRUSDWWHUQDQLWHPZDVVDLGWRORDGRQDJLYHQ
FRPSRQHQWLIWKHIDFWRUORDGLQJZDVRUJUHDWHUIRUWKDWFRPSRQHQWDQGZDVOHVV
WKDQIRUWKHRWKHU8VLQJWKHVHFULWHULDVHYHQLWHPVZHUHIRXQGWRORDGRQWKH
ILUVWFRPSRQHQWZKLFKZDVVXEVHTXHQWO\ODEHOHGWKHQHJDWLYHDIIHFWFRPSRQHQW
7KUHHLWHPVORDGHGRQWKHVHFRQGFRPSRQHQWZKLFKZDVODEHOHGWKHSUHVVXUH
FRPSRQHQW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
157
7DEOH5RWDWHG)DFWRU3DWWHUQDQG)LQDO&RPPXQDOLW\(VWLPDWHVIURP3ULQFLSDO
&RPSRQHQW$QDO\VLVRI&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRUWKH2QVHWRI%DFN3DLQ
&RPSRQHQW
µQHJDWLYHDIIHFW¶ ¶SUHVVXUH¶ K
'LVDSSRLQWPHQW )DPLO\3UREOHPV $Q[LHWLHV +RSHOHVVQHVV
7LPH3UHVVXUH
/RVV
/RQHOLQHVV
6HOIOHVV ([SHFWDWLRQV
,WHPV
6WUHVVHG2XW
1RWH1 &RPPXQDOLW\HVWLPDWHVDSSHDULQFROXPQKHDGHGK
7KHIXOOWH[WIRUWKHLWHPVFDQEHIRXQGLQWKH$SSHQGL[DVDIROGRXW
1RWHORDGLQJV!DUHHPSKDVL]HGLQEROGSULQW
&DQFHU
2QO\RQHFRPSRQHQWVKRZHGDQHLJHQYDOXHJUHDWHUWKDQDQGWKLVFRPSRQHQW
DFFRXQWHGIRURIWKHWRWDOYDULDQFH,WHPVWKURXJKORDGHGKLJKRQWKLVRQH
FRPSRQHQW6LQFHURWDWLRQLVQRWSRVVLEOHZLWKRQHFRPSRQHQWQRIXUWKHUUHVXOWVZLOO
EHUHSRUWHGIRUWKHLWHPVDVVHVVLQJFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQIRUWKHRQVHWRIFDQFHU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
158
+HDUW'LVHDVH
(LJHQYDOXHVJUHDWHUWKDQZHUHIRXQGIRUWKHILUVWWZRFRPSRQHQWVWKHVH
FRPSRQHQWVZHUHUHWDLQHGIRUURWDWLRQ6L[W\WZRSHUFHQWRIWKHWRWDOYDULDQFHLV
DFFRXQWHGIRUE\FRPSRQHQWVDQG
$VGHVFULEHGDERYHLWHPVDQGFRUUHVSRQGLQJIDFWRUORDGLQJVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKH
WDEOHEHORZ+HUHWRRIDFWRUORDGLQJVRIZHUHXVHGDVLQFOXVLRQFULWHULD6L[
LWHPVORDGHGRQWKHILUVWFRPSRQHQWZKLFKZDVODEHOHGHPRWLRQDOZLWKGUDZDO)RXU
LWHPVORDGHGRQWKHVHFRQGFRPSRQHQWLWZDVODEHOHGVWUHVV
7DEOH5RWDWHG)DFWRU3DWWHUQDQG)LQDO&RPPXQLW\(VWLPDWHVIURP3ULQFLSDO
&RPSRQHQW$QDO\VLVRI&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQIRUWKH2QVHWRI+HDUW'LVHDVH
&RPSRQHQW
µHPRWLRQDOZLWKGUDZDO¶ ¶VWUHVV¶
K
'LVVDWLVIDFWLRQ
6WUHVVHG2XW
)DPLO\3UREOHPV $Q[LHWLHV /RQHOLQHVV
6HOIOHVV 1R(PRWLRQV
([SHFWDWLRQV
6HQVLWLYHQHVV 'HSUHVVHG
,WHPV
1RWH1 &RPPXQDOLW\HVWLPDWHVDSSHDULQFROXPQKHDGHGK
7KHIXOOWH[WIRUWKHLWHPVFDQEHIRXQGLQWKH$SSHQGL[DVDIROGRXW
1RWHORDGLQJV!DUHHPSKDVL]HGLQEROGSULQW
6XPPDU\5HVXOWVIURPWKH3ULQFLSDO&RPSRQHQW$QDO\VLVRIEDFNSDLQDWWULEXWLRQV
VKRZHGIDFWRUORDGLQJVRQWZRFRPSRQHQWV³QHJDWLYHDIIHFW´LQFOXGLQJ,WHPV
³GLVDSSRLQWPHQW´³IDPLO\SUREOHPV´³DQ[LHWLHV´³KRSHOHVVQHVV´³ORVV´
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
159
³ORQHOLQHVV´³VHOIOHVV´DQG³SUHVVXUH´LQFOXGLQJ,WHPV³VWUHVVHGRXW´
³WLPHSUHVVXUH´³H[SHFWDWLRQV´
7KH3ULQFLSDO&RPSRQHQW$QDO\VLVRIKHDUWGLVHDVHDWWULEXWLRQVDOVRVKRZHGORDGLQJV
RQWZRFRPSRQHQWV³HPRWLRQDOZLWKGUDZDO´LQFOXGLQJ,WHPV³ORQHOLQHVV´
³VHOIOHVV´³QRHPRWLRQV´³H[SHFWDWLRQV´³VHQVLWLYHQHVV´³GHSUHVVHG´
³VWUHVV´LQFOXGLQJ,WHPV³GLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´³VWUHVVHGRXW´³IDPLO\
SUREOHPV´³DQ[LHWLHV´
7KLVDQDO\VLVSURYLGHGOLWWOHLQIRUPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRUWKHRQVHWRI
FDQFHU
6L[LWHPVRYHUODSSHGIRURQVHWRIEDFNSDLQDQGRIKHDUWGLVHDVH,WHPV³VWUHVVHG
RXW´³IDPLO\SUREOHPV´³DQ[LHWLHV´³ORQHOLQHVV´³VHOIOHVV´
³H[SHFWDWLRQV´7KHLWHPVFRPSULVLQJFRPSRQHQWVDQGIRUERWKGLVHDVHVVKRZHG
FHUWDLQVLPLODULWLHVLWVHHPVWKDWWKHLWHPVORDGLQJRQWKHILUVWFRPSRQHQWLQYROYH
ORQHOLQHVVDQGGHSUHVVLRQZKLOHWKHVHFRQGFRPSRQHQWLVFRPSULVHGRILWHPV
DVVHVVLQJVWUHVV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
160
$QDO\VHVRI9DULDQFH*URXS['LVHDVH
*5283[',6($6($QDO\VHVRI9DULDQFHZLWK5HSHDWHG0HDVXUHV
6HSDUDWHIRU,7(0
D6WDWHPHQWRIWKHSUREOHP7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVDQDO\VLVZDVWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHU
WKHUHZDVDGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQPHDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
FI7DEOHZLWKUHVSHFWWRFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRUGLVHDVHRQVHWRQDQLWHPEDVLV
E1DWXUHRIWKHYDULDEOHV7KLVDQDO\VLVLQYROYHGWKUHHYDULDEOHV2QHSUHGLFWRU
YDULDEOHZDVWKHLWHPIRUH[DPSOHLWHP³'LVDSSRLQWPHQWRYHUXQDFFRPSOLVKHG
OLIHJRDOV´$QRWKHUSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHZDVWKHJURXSZKLFKZDVPHDVXUHGRQD
QRPLQDOVFDOHEDFNSDLQJURXSDQGQREDFNSDLQJURXS7KHFULWHULRQYDULDEOH
UHSUHVHQWHGWKHSDUWLFLSDQW¶VFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVWRGLVHDVHRQVHWZKLFKZDV
PHDVXUHGRQDQLQWHUYDOVFDOH
F6WDWLVWLFDOWHVW7ZR*URXS([SHULPHQWDO'HVLJQZLWK5HSHDWHG0HDVXUHV
G1XOO+\SRWKHVLV0 0 0,QWKHSRSXODWLRQWKHUHLVQRGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ
JURXSVEDFNSDLQQREDFNSDLQRUEHWZHHQGLVHDVHVEDFNSDLQFDQFHUKHDUW
GLVHDVHZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHLUPHDQDWWULEXWLRQVFRUHV
H$OWHUQDWLYH+\SRWKHVLV,QWKHSRSXODWLRQWKHUHLVDGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQ
SDWLHQWVDQGQREDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVRQWKHLUPHDQDWWULEXWLRQVFRUHV$QGWKHUHLVD
GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQGLVHDVHVFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVHEHFDXVHWKH\DUHOLIH
WKUHDWHQLQJDQGEDFNSDLQ
I2EWDLQHGVWDWLVWLFVHHEHORZ
7HVWLQJIRU(IIHFWV
,QWHUDFWLRQ(IIHFW:LWKQRQVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLVLVPDLQWDLQHGDQG
LWFDQEHFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHUHLVQR,7(0*5283LQWHUDFWLRQ$VLJQLILFDQW
LQWHUDFWLRQZDVIRXQGIRURQO\,WHP³7UDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWV´
*URXS(IIHFW%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV1RQVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHUHZHUHQR
RYHUDOOGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHH[SHULPHQWDOEDFNSDLQJURXSDQGFRQWUROJURXS
QREDFNSDLQZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHLUPHDQDWWULEXWLRQVFRUHV2QO\RQHLWHPVKRZHGD
VLJQLILFDQWJURXSHIIHFW$QDO\VHVVKRZHGWKDWWKHEDFNSDLQJURXSKDGVLJQLILFDQWO\
KLJKHUPHDQVFRUHVWKDQWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS) SIRU
,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHGRXW´
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
161
,WHP(IIHFW:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV$PDLQHIIHFWIRU,7(0ZRXOGVXJJHVWWKDWWKHUHZDVD
VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQDWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVREWDLQHGIRUEDFNSDLQFDQFHUDQG
KHDUWGLVHDVH$OORIWKHSHUVRQDOLW\YDULDEOHVRIWKH&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQ6FDOHVKRZHG
DVLJQLILFDQWLWHPHIIHFW0HDQVFRUHVDQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVDUHJLYHQLQ
SDUHQWKHVHV0VG7KHUHIHUHQFHVFDOHLVDOZD\VEDFNSDLQLHVLJQLILFDQW
GLIIHUHQFHVDUHUHSRUWHGIRUWKHFRPSDULVRQVEDFNSDLQDQGFDQFHUEDFNSDLQDQG
KHDUWGLVHDVH
,WHP6LJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQDQG
WKHKHDUWGLVHDVHIRU,WHP³-REGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´
,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHGRXW´6LJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHVKRZQ
EHWZHHQEDFNSDLQFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVHVFDOH
,WHP7KHVDPHKROGVWUXHIRU,WHP³'LVDSSRLQWPHQWRYHUXQDFFRPSOLVKHGOLIH
JRDOV´DQDO\VHVVKRZHGVLJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQ
FDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
,WHPV6LJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQFDQFHUDQGKHDUW
GLVHDVHZHUHDOVRIRXQGIRU,WHP³&RQVWDQWSUREOHPVLQWKHIDPLO\ÉDFNSDLQ
FDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVH,WHP³5HFXUULQJDQ[LHWLHV
DERXWWKHIXWXUHÉDFNSDLQFDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVH
DQG,WHP³+RSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQÉDFNSDLQ
FDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVH
,WHP³&RQVWDQWVWUHVVDQGWLPHSUHVVXUH´7KLVLWHPGLGQRWVKRZWKHVDPH
WUHQGVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHFDOFXODWHGEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQDQG
KHDUWGLVHDVH
,WHPV6LJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQFDQFHU
DQGKHDUWGLVHDVHIRUWKH,WHPV³/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRUGLYRUFH´
EDFNSDLQFDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVH³,QDELOLW\WR
H[SUHVVIXU\RUDQJHUÉDFNSDLQFDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVH
DQG³/RQHOLQHVVDGORVVRIVRFLDOFRQWDFWVÉDFNSDLQ
FDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVH
,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\LJQRULQJRQH¶VRZQQHHGV´7KLVLWHPVKRZHGVLJQLILFDQWPHDQ
GLIIHUHQFHVIRURQO\EDFNSDLQDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
162
,WHPV$QDO\VHVVKRZHGVLJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQ
FDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVHIRU,WHP³2IWHQQRWVKRZLQJHPRWLRQVVXFKDVVRUURZ
DQGGLVDSSRLQWPHQWÉDFNSDLQFDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVH
DQGIRU,WHP³+LJKH[SHFWDWLRQVIRURQHVHOIÉDFNSDLQ
FDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVH
,WHP'LIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
UHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHIRU,WHP³&RQWLQXRXVHPRWLRQDOLQVWDELOLW\DQG
VHQVLWLYHQHVV´
,WHP7KHVDPHLVWUXHIRU,WHP³&RQWLQXRXVGHSUHVVHGPRRG´VLJQLILFDQW
GLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
,WHP³7UDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWV´6LJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQEDFN
SDLQFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
&RQWUDVWV0HDQVFRUHVIRUDWWULEXWLRQVRQEDFNSDLQDUHFRPSDUHGZLWKPHDQVFRUHV
IRUFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
163
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³-REGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHGRXW´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 SS
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
164
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³'LVDSSRLQWPHQWRYHUXQDFFRPSOLVKHGOLIHJRDOV´1RQVLJQLILFDQW
,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQVWDQWSUREOHPVLQWKHIDPLO\´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
165
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³5HFXUULQJDQ[LHWLHVDERXWWKHIXWXUH´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³+RSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
166
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQVWDQWVWUHVVDQGWLPHSUHVVXUH´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRUGLYRUFH´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
167
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³,QDELOLW\WRH[SUHVVIXU\DQGDQJHU´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³/RQHOLQHVVDQGORVVRIVRFLDOFRQWDFWV´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
168
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\LJQRULQJRQH¶VRZQQHHGV´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
06
)
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³2IWHQQRWVKRZLQJHPRWLRQVVXFKDVVRUURZDQGGLVDSSRLQWPHQW´
1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
169
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³+LJKH[SHFWDWLRQVIRURQHVHOI´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQWLQXRXVHPRWLRQDOLQVWDELOLW\DQGVHQVLWLYHQHVV´1RQVLJQLILFDQW
,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
170
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³&RQWLQXRXVGHSUHVVHGPRRG´1RQVLJQLILFDQW,QWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
7DEOH$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP³7UDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWV´
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
,WHP%
,WHP*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 SS
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
171
6XPPDU\
&RQFOXGLQJUHPDUNVIRU*5283;',6($6($129$ZLWKUHSHDWHGPHDVXUHV
$VLJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQHIIHFWZDVIRXQGIRU,WHP³7UDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWV´)
SZKLFKLQGLFDWHVLQKHUHQWGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHPHDQ
DWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVEHWZHHQWKHWZRJURXSVDQGWKHWKUHHGLVHDVHV
6LJQLILFDQWJURXSGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHEDFNSDLQJURXSDQGWKHQREDFNSDLQ
JURXS) SZHUHIRXQGRQ,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHG
RXW´WKHEDFNSDLQJURXSKDGVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHULWHPVFRUHV1RRWKHUVLJQLILFDQW
GLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHWZRJURXSV
6LJQLILFDQWLWHPHIIHFWVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHGLVHDVHVIRUDOORIWKHFDXVDO
DWWULEXWLRQLWHPV7KHFRQWUDVWVDUHUHSRUWHGEHORZ
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQPHDQ
VFRUHVIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHUWKDQIRU
FDQFHU) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
ORZHUWKDQIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRU
FDQFHU) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
ORZHUWKDQIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRUKHDUW
GLVHDVH) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
ORZHUWKDQIRUFDQFHU) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRUKHDUW
GLVHDVH) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
ORZHUWKDQIRUFDQFHU) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRUKHDUW
GLVHDVH) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
ORZHUWKDQIRUFDQFHU) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRUKHDUW
GLVHDVH) S
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
172
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRUKHDUW
GLVHDVH) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
ORZHUWKDQIRUFDQFHU) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRUKHDUW
GLVHDVH) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
ORZHUWKDQIRUFDQFHU) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRU
KHDUWGLVHDVH) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUH
VLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRUFDQFHU) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQPHDQ
VFRUHVIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRU
KHDUWGLVHDVH) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUH
VLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRUFDQFHU) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRU
KHDUWGLVHDVH) S0HDQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUH
VLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHUWKDQIRUFDQFHU) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRU
KHDUWGLVHDVH) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRU
KHDUWGLVHDVH) S
,WHP&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVFRUHVIRUEDFNSDLQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQIRU
FDQFHU) SDQGORZHUWKDQIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH) S
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
173
$QDO\VLVRI9DULDQFH*URXS[,WHP
*URXS[,WHPZLWK5HSHDWHG0HDVXUHV6HSDUDWHIRU',6($6(
D 6WDWHPHQWRIWKHSUREOHP7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVDQDO\VLVZDVWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHU
WKHUHZDVDGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQPHDQVFRUHVIRUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXSDQGWKHQR
EDFNSDLQJURXSZLWKUHVSHFWWRLWHPVIRUWKHGLVHDVHVEDFNSDLQFDQFHU
DQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
E1DWXUHRIWKHYDULDEOHV7KLVDQDO\VLVLQYROYHGWKUHHYDULDEOHV2QHSUHGLFWRU
YDULDEOHZDVWKHJURXSEDFNSDLQYHUVXVQREDFNSDLQPHDVXUHGRQDQRPLQDO
VFDOH$QRWKHUSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHZDVWKHLWHPPHDVXUHGRQDQLQWHUYDOVFDOH7KH
FULWHULRQYDULDEOHUHSUHVHQWHGWKHGLVHDVHVEDFNSDLQFDQFHUKHDUWGLVHDVHZKLFK
ZDVPHDVXUHGRQDQRPLQDOVFDOH
F6WDWLVWLFDOWHVW[$QDO\VLVRI9DULDQFHZLWK5HSHDWHG0HDVXUHV
G1XOO+\SRWKHVLV0 0,QWKHSRSXODWLRQWKHUHLVQRGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ
JURXSVEDFNSDLQQREDFNSDLQRUEHWZHHQLWHPV±ZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHLU
PHDQDWWULEXWLRQVFRUHV
H$OWHUQDWLYH+\SRWKHVLV,QWKHSRSXODWLRQWKHUHLVDGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQ
SDWLHQWVDQGQREDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVDFURVVWKHLWHPV$QGWKHUHLVDGLIIHUHQFH
EHWZHHQGLVHDVHVFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVHEHFDXVHWKH\DUHOLIHWKUHDWHQLQJDQG
EDFNSDLQ
I2EWDLQHGVWDWLVWLFVHHEHORZ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
174
7DEOH;$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
%DFN3DLQ1RQVLJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
6FDOH%
6FDOH*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
7DEOH;$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
&DQFHU1RQVLJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
6FDOH%
6FDOH*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
175
7DEOH;$129$6XPPDU\7DEOHIRU&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVIRU'LVHDVH2QVHW
+HDUW'LVHDVH1RQVLJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQ
6RXUFH
GI
66
%HWZHHQ6XEMHFWV *URXS$
5HVLGXDOEHWZHHQ 06
)
:LWKLQ6XEMHFWV
6FDOH%
6FDOH*URXS$% 5HVLGXDOZLWKLQ
7RWDO 1RWH1 S
'LVHDVH(IIHFW$VLJQLILFDQWGLVHDVHHIIHFWZDVIRXQGIRUEDFNSDLQ) SFDQFHU) SDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH)
S3DUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGWKHLWHPVORZHUIRUEDFNSDLQWKDQIRU
FDQFHUDQGORZHUIRUFDQFHUWKDQIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH3DUWLFLSDQWVRIERWKJURXSV
VFRUHG,WHP³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHGRXW´DVVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWIRUKHDUW
GLVHDVH
*URXS(IIHFW1RVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQJURXSPHDQ
VFRUHVDQGWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXSPHDQVFRUHVRQWKHLWHPVIRUEDFNSDLQ1R
VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQJURXSVLQDWWULEXWLRQVIRURQVHWRIFDQFHU1RJURXS
GLIIHUHQFHVLQFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH
,QWHUDFWLRQ(IIHFW1RVLJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQHIIHFWVEHWZHHQEDFNSDLQFDQFHURUIRU
KHDUWGLVHDVH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
6XPPDU\
$VLJQLILFDQWGLVHDVHHIIHFWZDVIRXQGIRUEDFNSDLQFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
3DUWLFLSDQWVDWWULEXWHGGLIIHUHQWSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVWR³FDXVH´HDFKRIWKHVHWKUHH
GLVHDVHV1RVLJQLILFDQWJURXSHIIHFWVZHUHIRXQG7KHDQDO\VHVUHYHDOHGQR
VLJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQHIIHFWV
176
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
177
6XPPDU\RIWKH0DLQ5HVXOWV%DVHGRQWKH5HVHDUFK+\SRWKHVHV
+%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO)DFWRUV6LJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQFKURQLF
EDFNSDLQDQGKLJKHUDJHDQGORZHUHGXFDWLRQ7KHIHPDOHJHQGHUDQGORZHU
HGXFDWLRQZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\UHODWHGWRKLJKLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQLQ&KL6TXDUHG7HVWV
+3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV7KURXJKORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSV
ZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQPHDQVFRUHVRQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHDQGSDLQFKURQLFLW\DQG
SDLQLQWHQVLW\$QDO\VHVUHYHDOHGDVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQWKH6HQVHRI
&RKHUHQFH6FDOHDQGSDLQLQWHQVLW\7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKH6HQVHRI
&RKHUHQFHDQGSDLQFKURQLFLW\ZDVQRWVLJQLILFDQW1RVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQG
EHWZHHQWKHSUHGLFWRUVFDOH-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQDQGWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHVSDLQ
FKURQLFLW\DQGSDLQLQWHQVLW\
+([SODLQLQJWKH9DULDQFHIRU&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\DQG&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\
&KURQLFLW\8VLQJWKHORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVDQGWHVWLQJWKHYDULDEOHV
VLPXOWDQHRXVO\KLJKHUDJHORZHUHGXFDWLRQDQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVUHDFKHG
VLJQLILFDQFHIRUFKURQLFLW\)RULQWHQVLW\WKHDQDO\VLVUHYHDOHGVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVIRU
ORZUHSRUWHGSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHKLJKVFRUHVRQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHDQGSUHVHQW
FRPRUELGLWLHV)RUWKHFRPELQHGYDULDEOH&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\QRQHRIWKH
YDULDEOHVUHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHZKHQWHVWLQJWKHSUHGLFWRUVYDULDEOHVVLPXOWDQHRXVO\
:KHQWHVWLQJIRUVLJQLILFDQFHRQDQLQGLYLGXDOOHYHOVLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQGIRU
KLJKUDWLQJVRQWKHFRPELQHGYDULDEOHDQGWKHIROORZLQJSUHGLFWRUVKLJKHUDJH
IHPDOHJHQGHUORZHGXFDWLRQFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVWKLJK'HSUHVVLRQ
6FDOHVFRUHVDQGORZMREVDWLVIDFWLRQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
178
+([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ([SHULHQFH$VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKH,WHP³6NLQ
6HQVLWLYLW\´³VNLQVHQVLWLYLW\LQWKHOXPEDUVSLQHDUHDRUUHSRUWHGSDLQZKHQ
SUHVVLQJXSRQWKHKLSERQH6DFUXPRUXSSHUEDFN´RQWKH([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ
5HDFWLRQLWHPVDQGKLJKSDLQLQWHQVLW\ZDVIRXQGWKURXJK&KL6TXDUHG7HVWV
3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVHV&KLVTXDUHWHVWVKRZHGRQHVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQ
JHQGHUDQGWKHGLDJQRVLV³SV\FKRVRPDWLFRULJLQ´)HPDOHVZHUHPRUHOLNHO\WR
UHFHLYHWKHGLDJQRVLV³SV\FKRVRPDWLFRULJLQÍRUWKHLUFKURQLFEDFNSDLQWKDQPHQ$
IDFWRULDO$129$IRU$*(DQGWKHSK\VLFLDQV¶GLDJQRVHVVKRZHGDVLJQLILFDQWPDLQ
HIIHFWIRU³GHJHQHUDWLRQ´%DFNSDLQSDWLHQWVUHFHLYLQJWKHGLDJQRVLV³GHJHQHUDWLRQ´
ZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\ROGHUWKDQSDWLHQWVUHFHLYLQJDQ\RIWKHRWKHUGLDJQRVHV$QDO\VHV
RIWKHRWKHUFULWHULRQYDULDEOHV6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHGHSUHVVLRQMREVDWLVIDFWLRQ
UHYHDOHGQRQVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWV
+*URXS'LIIHUHQFHV$VH[SHFWHGWKHEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVVFRUHGVLJQLILFDQWO\
KLJKHUWKDQQREDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVRQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH1RVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHV
ZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHWZRJURXSVRQWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOHRURQWKH-RE
6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOHKRZHYHUDFFRUGLQJWRH[SHFWDWLRQVWKHSDFNSDLQJURXSVFRUHG
ORZHURQERWKWKHVHVFDOHV
+&RPRUELGLWLHV6LJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZHUHIRXQGIRUFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWRU
SDVWDQGFKURQLFLW\7DNHQDVDJURXS1 FKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGHGWR
UHSRUWFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQWDQGLQWKHSDVW+RZHYHUWKHUHLVQRVLJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWRUSDVWLQWKHEDFNSDLQ
JURXS7KHZKROHSDUWLFLSDQWVDPSOHUHSRUWLQJKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQDOVRUHSRUWHG
VLJQLILFDQWO\PRUHSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVEXWQRWSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHV1RVLJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQLQWHQVLW\DQGSUHVHQWRUSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKH
EDFNSDLQJURXS7KHUHLVDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQKLJKHUDJHDQG
FRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQWIRUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS2OGHUEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVUHSRUW
VLJQLILFDQWO\PRUHSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
179
+'LVHDVH5HODWHG$WWULEXWLRQV7KHSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVZHUHUDWHGWREHPRVW
UHOHYDQWIRUKHDUWGLVHDVHWKHKLJKHVWPHDQVDQGORZHVWVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVZHUH
IRXQGRQDOORIWKHLWHPVIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH$OORIWKHSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVVKRZHGD
VLJQLILFDQWLWHPHIIHFW
+%DFN3DLQ3DWLHQWV¶$WWULEXWLRQV$VLJQLILFDQWJURXSHIIHFWZDVIRXQGIRU,WHP
³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHGRXW´WKHEDFNSDLQJURXSKDGVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHUPHDQ
VFRUHVWKDQWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXSRQWKLVLWHP%DFNSDLQSDWLHQWVUDWHGWKLVLWHPWR
EHSDUWLFXODUO\LPSRUWDQWIRUWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVH$QDO\VHVUHYHDOHGD
VLJQLILFDQWGLVHDVHHIIHFWIRUEDFNSDLQFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
180
',6&866,21
*HQHUDO6WDWHPHQWV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHV7KLVSDSHUH[DPLQHGVRPHFRUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQ
ELRSV\FKRVRFLDOYDULDEOHVDQGORZEDFNSDLQ/RZEDFNSDLQZDVGHILQHGLQWHUPVRI
FKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\)LQGLQJVUHSRUWHGKHUHVXSSRUWSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKLQWKDW
VRPHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOIDFWRUVDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKORZEDFNSDLQ
6SHFLILFDOO\WKHVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVIRXQGIRUFKURQLFEDFNSDLQZHUHKLJKHU
DJHORZHUHGXFDWLRQDQGKLJKHUVFRUHVRQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH)RUKLJKLQWHQVLW\
EDFNSDLQVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZHUHIRXQGIRUIHPDOHVSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKORZHU
HGXFDWLRQDQGKLJKHU'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHVFRUHV
&RPRUELGLWLHV&RPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVWZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWK
FKURQLFLW\IRUJHQHUDOSDLQ$QDO\VHVUHYHDOHGDVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQ
SUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVDQGLQWHQVLW\IRUJHQHUDOSDLQ+RZHYHUFRPRUELGLWLHVZHUH
QRWVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKORZEDFNSDLQFKURQLFLW\RULQWHQVLW\+RZHYHULQWKH
QREDFNSDLQJURXSSUHVHQWDQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\UHODWHGWRKLJK
LQWHQVLW\SDLQSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKSDLQFKURQLFLW\
ZKHQDQDO\]LQJWKHWZRJURXSVHSDUDWHO\$FFRUGLQJWRH[SHFWDWLRQVROGHU
SDUWLFLSDQWV!\HDUVRIDJHDQGSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVSURYHGWREHVLJQLILFDQWO\
DVVRFLDWHGLQWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW'LVHDVH2QVHW:KLOHDQDO\]LQJFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDERXW
GLVHDVHRQVHWEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVFRQVLGHUHG³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHGRXW´WREH
SDUWLFXODUO\UHOHYDQWWRWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVH6KRZQWKURXJKWKHFRQVLVWHQWO\
KLJKHUPHDQVDQGFRQVLVWHQWO\ORZHUVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVDOOSDUWLFLSDQWV
FRQVLGHUHGWKHSHUVRQDOLW\YDULDEOHVRIWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQLWHPVWREHLPSRUWDQW
IRUWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVH3DUWLFLSDQWVVHHPHGWREHOHVVFHUWDLQZKLFK
SHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVSOD\DUROHLQWKHRQVHWRIORZEDFNSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
181
6KRUWFRPLQJVRIWKHVWXG\
7KHSUREOHPRIFDXVDOLW\$OWKRXJKILQGLQJVPD\KHOSXVWREHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGWKH
FRPSOH[LW\VXUURXQGLQJWKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHLQSDUWLFXODUWKHWUDQVLWLRQIURPDFXWH
SDLQWRFKURQLFSDLQDVWXG\RIWKLVNLQGFDQPDNHQRVSHFXODWLRQVDERXWFDXVDOLW\
,QIDFWQRQH[SHULPHQWDOUHVHDUFKWKDWLQYHVWLJDWHVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQMXVWWZR
YDULDEOHVJHQHUDOO\SURYLGHVUHODWLYHO\ZHDNHYLGHQFHFRQFHUQLQJFDXVHDQGHIIHFW
UHODWLRQVKLSV6WXGLHVXVLQJGLUHFWPDQLSXODWLRQLQDSURVSHFWLYHFRQWUROOHGDQG
UDQGRPL]HGIDVKLRQZRXOGHQDEOHVWDWHPHQWVDERXWFDXVDOLW\WREHPDGH
5HOLDELOLW\
5HOLDELOLW\RIWKH7HQGHQF\WR([DJJHUDWHWKH3DLQ5HDFWLRQ$QDGDSWDWLRQRIWKH
VFDOH3V\FKRORJLFDO³RYHUOD\´:DGGHOOZDVXVHGKHUHLQWKLVVWXG\DQGLW
SURYHGWREHRIOLWWOHVWDWLVWLFDOYDOXH7KDWLVWKLVVFDOHZDVLPSRVVLEOHWRDQDO\]H
VWDWLVWLFDOO\VLQFHWKHRUWKRSHGLFGRFWRUVZLWKYHU\IHZH[FHSWLRQVUHVSRQGHGWRWKH
ILYHLWHPVPHDVXULQJVNLQVHQVLWLYLW\SUHVVXUHOHJOLIWLQJQHUYHDVVRFLDWLRQDQGWKH
WHQGHQF\WRRYHUUHDFWZLWKD³QR´QRPLQDOVFDOH
5HOLDELOLW\RIWKH&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQ,WHPV7KHFRHIILFLHQWDOSKDHVWLPDWHVFDOFXODWHG
IRUWKH&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQLWHPVVKRZHGH[WUHPHO\KLJKUHOLDELOLW\DOWKRXJKLWLVQRW
SRVVLEOHWRUHFRJQL]HDQ\LQWHUQDOELQQHQVWUXFWXUH7KHLWHPVDGGUHVVDZLGHUDQJH
RIWRSLFVIURPMREVDWLVIDFWLRQWRWUDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWV3RWHQWLDOO\DUHVSRQVHVHW
PD\KDYHLQIOXHQFHGWKHVFRUHVRQWKHVHLWHPV
'HILQLWLRQRIWKH2XWFRPH9DULDEOH$QRWKHUFRQFHUQLVWKHGHILQLWLRQDQG
PHDVXUHPHQWRIWKHRXWFRPHYDULDEOHORZEDFNSDLQ&RQVLGHUIRUH[DPSOHWKH
GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHVLPSOHUHSRUWRIKDYLQJKDGEDFNSDLQGXULQJWKHSDVW\HDU
ZLWKWKHQXPEHURIKHDOWKFDUHYLVLWVIXUWKHUGLDJQRVWLFWHVWVVLFNOHDYH$OORIZKLFK
ZHUHYDULDEOHVFROOHFWHGLQWKHVWXG\TXHVWLRQQDLUH+RZHYHUQRWDOORIWKHVH
YDULDEOHVZHUHVWDWLVWLFDOO\DQDO\]HG'XHWRWLPHSUHVVXUHDQGWRHFRQRPLFUHDVRQV
LQIRUPDWLRQZDVWKHUHIRUHORVWDVWKHWZRYDULDEOHVFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\ZHUH
GHILQHG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
182
7HPSRUDO$VSHFWV5HVHDUFKVXJJHVWV/LQWRQWKDWFHUWDLQIDFWRUVDUH
LPSRUWDQWYHU\HDUO\RQZKLOHRWKHUVPD\EHLPSRUWDQWDWUHFXUUHQFH$WHPSRUDO
DQDO\VLVRIWKHGDWDZDVQRWSRVVLEOHGXHWRWKHLQVXIILFLHQWQXPEHUVRISDUWLFLSDQWV
KHUHWRLGHQWLI\ZKLFKSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVZHUHVLJQLILFDQWGHSHQGLQJRQOHQJWKRIWKH
SDLQH[SHULHQFH
6HOHFWLRQ%LDVHV'DWDZHUHFROOHFWHGIRUWKHH[SHULPHQWDOJURXSIURPWKHRUWKRSHGLF
SUDFWLFHVLQDVHPLUXUDOFRPPXQLW\1RWRQO\LVWKLVSDUWLFLSDQWJURXSELDVHGGXHWR
WKHRXWSDWLHQWVHWWLQJEXWDOVRGXHWRWKHVHOHFWLRQELDVHVWKDWVXUURXQGJURXS
VDPSOHVFOXVWHUVDPSOHV$OWKRXJKWKHUDWHRIUHWXUQZDVKLJKVRPH
SRWHQWLDOSDUWLFLSDQWVUHIXVHGWRSDUWLFLSDWHDIDFWZKLFKMHRSDUGL]HVWKH
JHQHUDOL]DELOLW\RIWKHILQGLQJV5HVXOWVDSSO\RQO\WRLQGLYLGXDOVZKRDUHZLOOLQJWR
SDUWLFLSDWHLQDVWXG\VLQFHGDWDFRXOGQRWFROOHFWHGIURPWKRVHZKRUHIXVHGWR
SDUWLFLSDWH
0LVVLQJ'DWD$OWKRXJKLWLVJHQHUDOO\ZHOONQRZQWKDWPLVVLQJGDWDDUHFRPPRQLQ
TXHVWLRQQDLUHUHVHDUFK+DWFKHU6WHSDQVNLSDUWLFLSDQWVIURPWKLVVWXG\
IDLOHGWRUHVSRQGWRPDQ\LWHPVHYHQWKURXJKWKHLQVWUXFWLRQVHPSKDVL]HGWKH
LPSRUWDQFHRIUHVSRQGLQJWRDOOWKHTXHVWLRQV7KLVTXHVWLRQQDLUHZDVOHQJWK\DQG
SDUWLFLSDQWVH[SHULHQFLQJSDLQPD\KDYHEHHQVLPSO\RYHUWD[HG
6HOI5HSRUWV6HOIUHSRUWTXHVWLRQQDLUHVDUHNQRZQWREHWKHPRVWIUHTXHQWO\XVHG
DQGWKHOHDVWDFFXUDWHDQGPRVWXQUHOLDEOHIRUPRIDVVHVVPHQW,QSDUWLFXODUWKLV
DSSOLHVWRWKHFRPRUELGLW\VHFWLRQRIWKLVTXHVWLRQQDLUHVWXG\LQZKLFKSDUWLFLSDQWVDUH
UHTXHVWHGWRLQGLFDWHZKHWKHUWKH\VXIIHUIURPSUHVHQWRUKDGVXIIHUHGIURPSDVW
DQ\RIWKHGLVHDVHVOLVWHG7KHFRQVWUXFWRIQHXURWLFLVPFRPSOLFDWHVWKLVLVVXHVLQFH
³QHXURWLF´LQGLYLGXDOVWHQGWRIRFXVWKHLUDWWHQWLRQRQVPDOOSK\VLFDOFRPSODLQWVWKDW
PD\QRWQHFHVVDU\EHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDFOLQLFDOGLDJQRVLV0F&UDH&RVWD
7KHSHUVRQDOLW\FRQVWUXFW1HXURWLFLVPZDVQRWFRQWUROOHGLQWKLVVWXG\QHYHUWKHOHVV
LWVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHUHVXOWV)XUWKHUWKHDVVHVVPHQW
RISDLQLVGLIILFXOWWRPDNHIURPDQREMHFWLYHSHUVSHFWLYHVLQFHLWLVDVXEMHFWLYH
H[SHULHQFHDQGDIIHFWHGE\QXPHURXVLQGLYLGXDOGLIIHUHQFHVGLVFXVVHGDERYH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
183
7KHUHLVDJUHDWQHHGIRUDQDVVHVVPHQWLQVWUXPHQWFDSDEOHRIPHDVXULQJSK\VLFDO
FRPSODLQWVRIORZEDFNSDLQ
2UGHU(IIHFW7KHRUGHURIWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUHVFDOHVZDVQRWFRQWUROOHGLQWKLVVWXG\
7KHVFDOHVUHPDLQHGLQWKHVDPHRUGHUIRUWKHHQWLUHSDUWLFLSDQWSRSXODWLRQ2QH
SRVVLEOHFRQVHTXHQFHPD\EHWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWVORVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQDWWKHHQGRIWKH
OHQJWK\TXHVWLRQQDLUH
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH$V$3URWHFWLYH)DFWRU5HVXOWVIURP$PHODQJDQG6FKPLGW
5DWKMHQVVXJJHVWWKDWWKLVFRQVWUXFWPD\QRWVKRZXQLTXHYDOLGLW\UHODWLYHWR
WKHHIIHFWVRIQHXURWLFLVPDQGGHSUHVVLRQ7KHUHIRUHWKH+HLGHOEHUJ6HQVHRI
&RKHUHQFH6FDOHPD\QRWEHDVWURQJHQRXJKFRQVWUXFWWRDFWDVSURWHFWLYHIDFWRU
DJDLQVWGLVHDVH,QJHQHUDOWKLVVWXG\IDLOVWRWKRURXJKO\LQYHVWLJDWHWKHSURWHFWLYH
FRQVWUXFWV
&RQWUROJURXS,WFRXOGIXUWKHUEHTXHVWLRQHGZKHWKHUWKHFRQWUROJURXSZDV
VXIILFLHQWO\FRPSDUDEOH7KHW\SHRISDLQZDVQRWFRQWUROOHGWKURXJKWKH
TXHVWLRQQDLUHQRUZDVWKHGHILQLWLRQEHWZHHQIRUH[DPSOHFKURQLFDQGDFXWH
GHWHUPLQHGE\DKHDOWKSURIHVVLRQDO)XWXUHUHVHDUFKPD\VKRZWKDWVXEW\SHVRI
SDLQHJORZEDFNSDLQWHPSRURPDQGLEXODUGLVRUGHUVRUFDQFHUSDLQPD\EH
FRUUHODWHGZLWKGLIIHUHQWYDULDEOHV
2WKHU$UHDVRI5HVHDUFK'HVHUYLQJ$WWHQWLRQ7KLVVWXG\IDLOHGWRDGHTXDWHO\DVVHVV
WKHFRJQLWLYHDQGVRFLDOSURFHVVHVWKDWDUHLQYROYHGLQWKHWUDQVLWLRQIURPDFXWHWR
FKURQLFSDLQ7KHVWXGLHVH[DPLQLQJWKHUROHVRFLDOVXSSRUWSOD\VLQWKLVDUHDKDYH
SURYLGHGIDVFLQDWLQJHYLGHQFHRQKRZDVROLFLWRXVVSRXVHFDQDFWXDOO\FRQWULEXWHWR
WKHSDLQUHSRUWHG,QFRPELQLQJWKHZRUNIURP)ORUDQGKHUFROOHDJXHVZLWK
FRJQLWLYHSURFHVVHVPD\IXUWKHURXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHYDULDEOHVWKDWDUHFULWLFDOLQ
WKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFKURQLFSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
184
)XWXUHUHVHDUFKGLUHFWLRQV
5HVHDUFKRYHUWKHODVWGHFDGHKDVIRFXVHGRQLGHQWLI\LQJVXEJURXSVRISHRSOHZLWK
ORZHUEDFNSDLQ0RUHUHFHQWO\JUHDWHUHPSKDVLVKDVEHHQJLYHQWRILQGLQJ
SUHGLFWRUVDQGULVNIDFWRUVIRUORZHUEDFNSDLQFKURQLFLW\LPSURYLQJVHOIFDUH
VWUDWHJLHVDQGVWLPXODWLQJVHOIUHOLDQFH$UHSRUWIURPWKH6HFRQG,QWHUQDWLRQDO
)RUXPIRU3ULPDU\&DUH5HVHDUFKRQ/RZ%DFN3DLQSUHGLFWVWKDWIXWXUH
UHVHDUFKZLOOEHGLUHFWHGWRZDUGVH[SDQGLQJRQPHWKRGRORJLFDODYHQXHVRILQTXLU\
)HZVWXGLHVKDYHSHQHWUDWHGWKHUHDVRQVZK\WKHVHSUHGLFWRUVDQGULVNIDFWRUVPLJKW
EHLPSRUWDQW$FKDOOHQJHIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFKLVWKHUHIRUHWRGHYLVHVWXGLHVWKDW
LQFOXGHDWKHRUHWLFDOSHUVSHFWLYHDVWRZK\DYDULDEOHPLJKWEHLPSRUWDQW%DVHGRQ
WKLVREVHUYDWLRQWKH$PHULFDQ3DLQ6RFLHW\.HUQV'ZRUNLQ5RPDQR7KRUQ
:LOOLDPVHPSKDVL]HVWKHQHHGIRUGHYHORSLQJUHVHDUFKPRGHOVWKDWFDQKHOS
SURYLGHDIRXQGDWLRQIRUJHQHUDWLQJWHVWDEOHPRGHOVIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFKURQLF
SDLQ$QH[DPSOHRIVXFKDPRGHOKDVEHHQSURSRVHGE\.HQGOHU.HVVOHU1HDOH
+HDWKDQG(DYHV7KH\VWXGLHGULVNIDFWRUVRIGHSUHVVLRQDQGWKHLUZRUN
VXJJHVWVWKDWIRXUGRPDLQVRIYDULDEOHVDUHOLNHO\WREHLPSRUWDQWJHQHWLFV
WUDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWVFKLOGKRRGDVZHOODVUHFHQWLQWHUSHUVRQDOVXSSRUWDQG
WHPSHUDPHQW,QDGGLWLRQVLQFHGHSUHVVLRQLVDFRPPRQFRPRUELGLW\LQFKURQLFSDLQ
VXFKPRGHOVPD\DOVRKHOSLOOXPLQDWHWKHVRXUFHVRIFKURQLFLW\LQSDLQSDWLHQWV
)LQDOO\WKH$PHULFDQ3DLQ6RFLHW\.HUQVHWDOHPSKDVL]HVWKDWUHVHDUFKRQ
WUHDWPHQWHIILFDF\PXVWQRZLQFOXGHFRVWRIIVHWRXWFRPHGDWDVWDQGDUGL]DWLRQRI
WUHDWPHQWSURWRFROVDQGFRPSRQHQWDQDO\VHVRIHIIHFWLYHDVSHFWVRIWUHDWPHQWDV
ZHOODVDSSURSULDWHSDWLHQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFV7KHJRDOLVWRFOHDUO\GHILQHZKLFK
WUHDWPHQWVDUHDSSURSULDWHIRUZKLFKSDWLHQWVIRUZKLFKSUREOHPVDQGDWZKDWFRVW
VDYLQJV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
185
0HDQLQJDQG,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKH5HVXOWV
/HQJWKRIDQG,QWHQVLW\RIWKH3DLQ([SHULHQFH
+
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO)DFWRUV'LRQQHDQGKHUFROOHDJXHVIRXQGWKDWORZ
HGXFDWLRQZDVVWURQJO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFKURQLFLW\DQGRUKLJKUHFXUUHQFHRI
EDFNSDLQLQDUHYLHZRIDUWLFOHV5HVXOWVIRXQGKHUHVKRZWKDWORZHU
HGXFDWLRQLVVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKERWKWKHFKURQLFLW\DQGWKHLQWHQVLW\
RIORZEDFNSDLQ$JHDSSHDUVWRSOD\DPRUHVLJQLILFDQWUROHLQWKHGXUDWLRQRI
WKHSDLQH[SHULHQFHKLJKHUDJHLVVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFKURQLFEDFN
SDLQ*DWFKHODQG*HUGHDUHSRUWHGVLPLODUILQGLQJVIRUDJH)HPDOHV
UHSRUWVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHUEDFNSDLQLQWHQVLW\WKDQPDOHV7KHVHUHVXOWV
VXSSRUWWKHILQGLQJVWKDWZRPHQH[KLELWORZHUSDLQWKUHVKROGVWKDQPHQ
3ODXVLEOHH[SODQDWLRQVWRH[SODLQJHQGHUGLIIHUHQFHVPD\EHWKHKRUPRQDO
VWDWHRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWRUWKDWIHPDOHVPD\EHPRUHZLOOLQJWRDGPLWWR
H[SHULHQFLQJSDLQ0LDVNRZVNL
+
3UHGLFWRU6FDOHV3XEOLVKHGVWXGLHVKDYHVXJJHVWHGWKDWSDLQSDWLHQWVVXIIHU
IURPDW\SLFDOGHSUHVVLRQ-RXNDPDDDQGWKDWGHSUHVVLRQPD\HIIHFW
WUHDWPHQWRXWFRPHV(SNHU%ORFN7KHUHIRUHLWLVQRWVXUSULVLQJWKDW
GHSUHVVLRQSURYHGWREHDVLJQLILFDQWYDULDEOHIRUWKHFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\
RISDLQLQWKLVVWXG\$VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHFULWHULRQ
YDULDEOHLQWHQVLW\DQGWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFHEXWQRWEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQG
WKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH$QDO\VHVRIWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHVFKURQLFLW\DQG
LQWHQVLW\GLGQRWVKRZVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVZLWKWKH-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOH
+
([SODLQLQJWKH9DULDQFHIRU&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\DQG&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\
&RPELQHG5HVXOWVIURPWKHORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVPDNHFOHDUWKDW
DOWKRXJKFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\DUHVLJQLILFDQWO\UHODWHG&KL6TXDUH SHQWLUHO\GLIIHUHQFHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVVLJQLILFDQWO\HIIHFWWKH
UHVSHFWLYHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHV
&KURQLFLW\6SHFLILFDOO\KLJKHUDJHORZHUHGXFDWLRQDQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHV
KDYHDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQFKURQLFLW\ZKHQWKHYDULDEOHVDUHWHVWHG
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
186
VLPXOWDQHRXVO\6LJQLILFDQWILQGLQJVIRUWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVKLJKHUDJHDQG
ORZHUHGXFDWLRQFRQIRUPWRH[SHFWDWLRQV,QYHVWLJDWLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVDQGFKURQLFLW\LVXQLTXHWRWKLVVWXG\
1HYHUWKHOHVVLWVHHPVORJLFDOWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWVZKRKDYHKDGLOOQHVVHVLQWKH
SDVWPD\EHPRUHVXVFHSWLEOHWRFKURQLFSDLQ3RWHQWLDOO\SDVVLQJWKURXJKWKH
VWDJHPRGHOSURSRVHGE\*DWFKHOIRUPRUHWKDQRQHGLVHDVHPD\
LQFUHDVHWKHSUREDELOLW\RISDLQFKURQLFLW\,QWHUHVWLQJO\DOWKRXJKGHSUHVVLRQ
UHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFHZKHQWHVWHGVHSDUDWHO\ZLWKFKURQLFLW\LWGLGQRWKDYHD
VLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQFKURQLFLW\ZKHQWHVWHGVLPXOWDQHRXVO\ZLWKRWKHU
YDULDEOHV
,QWHQVLW\/RZSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHKLJK'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH6FRUHVDQGSUHVHQW
FRPRUELGLWLHVVKRZHGDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQLQWHQVLW\ZKHQWHVWHG
VLPXOWDQHRXVO\7KHLQIOXHQFHRISK\VLFDOH[HUFLVHRQSDLQLQWHQVLW\LVQRWZHOO
UHVHDUFKHG,WLVKRZHYHUH[SHFWHGWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVVXIIHULQJIURPKLJK
LQWHQVLW\SDLQDUHOHVVOLNHO\WRHQJDJHLQSK\VLFDOH[HUFLVH,WLVQRWVXUSULVLQJ
WKDWGHSUHVVLRQKDGDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQSDLQLQWHQVLW\UHSRUWVVLQFHWKHUHLV
DVWURQJDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQGHSUHVVLRQDQGWKHVXEMHFWLYHH[SHULHQFHRISDLQ
LHSDLQLQWHQVLW\LQWKHOLWHUDWXUHFI5RELQVRQ5LOH\$OWKRXJKWKH
UROHRIFRPRUELGLWLHVLQSDLQLQWHQVLW\UHSRUWVLVQRWZHOOUHVHDUFKHGLWVHHPV
ORJLFDOWRK\SRWKHVL]HWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVSUHVHQWO\VXIIHULQJIURPPRUHWKDQRQH
LOOQHVVDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRUDWHKLJKHUSDLQLQWHQVLW\
&KURQLFLW\,QWHQVLW\$OWKRXJKKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQPD\SOD\DUROHLQWKH
WUDQVLWLRQIURPDFXWHWRFKURQLFSDLQWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHVHWZR
YDULDEOHVLVQRWZHOOXQGHUVWRRG7KHVHWZRYDULDEOHVZHUHFRPELQHGLQWKH
VWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VHVLQRUGHUWRH[DPLQHZKLFKSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVZRXOGKDYH
DQHIIHFWRQFKURQLFLW\LQWHQVLW\6LJQLILFDQWUHVXOWVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQWKH
FULWHULRQYDULDEOHFKURQLFLW\LQWHQVLW\DQGWKHIROORZLQJSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVRQ
DQLQGLYLGXDOEDVLVLQGHVFHQGLQJRUGHURILPSRUWDQFHGHSUHVVLRQKLJKHU
DJHSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVMREGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQIHPDOHJHQGHUORZHGXFDWLRQ
DQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHV7KHVHILQGLQJVDOVRFRQIRUPWRH[SHFWDWLRQVDQGRWKHU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
187
SXEOLVKHGUHVXOWV,WVHHPVORJLFDOWRFRQFOXGHWKDWDFRPELQHGYDULDEOHZRXOG
EHEHVWGHVFULEHGWKURXJKPRUHSUHGLFWRUV&XULRXVO\ZKHQWHVWLQJWKHVH
YDULDEOHVIRUVLJQLILFDQFHVLPXOWDQHRXVO\QRQHRIWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHV
UHDFKHGVLJQLILFDQFH
+
([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ([SHULHQFH)RUWKHEDFNSDLQJURXSRQHVLJQLILFDQW
DVVRFLDWLRQZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHLWHPVPHDVXULQJH[DJJHUDWHGSDLQUHSRUWVDQG
WKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHLQWHQVLW\6NLQVHQVLWLYLW\³VNLQVHQVLWLYLW\LQWKHOXPEDUVSLQH
DUHDRUUHSRUWHGSDLQZKHQSUHVVLQJXSRQWKHKLSERQH6DFUXPRUXSSHUEDFN´
ZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQLQRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV
UHSRUWLQJKLJKLQWHQVLW\SDLQ7KLVILQGLQJVKRZVDVOLJKWWHQGHQF\WRH[DJJHUDWHSDLQ
UHSRUWVLQDVPDOOSRUWLRQRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV
3K\VLFLDQV¶'LDJQRVHV3K\VLFLDQVZHUHPRUHOLNHO\WRGLDJQRVHWKHFDXVHRI
ORZEDFNSDLQIRUIHPDOHVWREHSV\FKRVRPDWLFWKDQIRUPDOHV7KLVILQGLQJ
FRXOGUHIOHFWWKHJHQGHUELDVHVGLVFXVVHGDERYHFI0LDVNRZVNL$
IDFWRULDO$129$IRU$*(DQGSK\VLFLDQV¶GLDJQRVHVGLDJQRVHVUHYHDOHGD
VLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWIRU³GHJHQHUDWLRQ´3DUWLFLSDQWVRIWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS
UHFHLYLQJWKHGLDJQRVLV³GHJHQHUDWLRQÍURPWKHLUSK\VLFLDQVZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\
ROGHUWKDQWKHEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVUHFHLYLQJRQHRIWKHRWKHUGLDJQRVHV7KLV
VLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWLVH[SOLFDEOHWKURXJKDELRPHGLFDOSHUVSHFWLYH
+
*URXS'LIIHUHQFHV$FFRUGLQJWRH[SHFWDWLRQVHJ(SNHU%ORFN
EDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVVFRUHGVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHURQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHWKDQQR
EDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV$OVRFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHK\SRWKHVHVWKHEDFNSDLQ
SDWLHQWVKDGORZHUVFRUHVRQWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOHDQGWKH-RE
6DWLVIDFWLRQ6FDOHKRZHYHUWKHVHGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHQRWVLJQLILFDQW.HUUDQG
FROOHDJXHVDOVRIDLOHGWRILQGVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQEDFN
SDLQDQGMREVDWLVIDFWLRQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
6LJQLILFDQWPHDQGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQWKHEDFNSDLQJURXSDQG
WKHQREDFNSDLQJURXSRQWKH'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH,WHPV³,DPOHVV
LQWHUHVWHGLQP\ORYHUHODWLRQVKLSVWKDQ,XVHGWREH´³(YHQZKHQ,
WU\,FDQ¶WWKLQNVWUDLJKW´DQG³,GRQ¶WKDYHDQ\HPRWLRQVDQ\PRUH´
188
+
&RPRUELGLWLHV7KHIRXUPRVWLPSRUWDQWFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVWLQ
WKLVVWXG\DUHDOOHUJLHVKHDUWEXUQDUWKULWLVDQGGLJHVWLYHFRPSOLFDWLRQV
7KH\OLNHEDFNSDLQDUHQRWOLIHWKUHDWHQLQJDQGLWPD\EHGLIILFXOWWRUHDVRQ
WKHRUHWLFDOO\WKDWWKH\FRXOGFKDQJHFRJQLWLYHSURFHVVHVRUEHKDYLRU7KDWLVD
SUREOHPIRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFK
,QWKLVSDSHUWKHFRUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQWKHFULWHULRQYDULDEOHVFKURQLFLW\DQG
LQWHQVLW\DQGWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVWZHUH
H[DPLQHG$VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGVHOI
UHSRUWHGFRPRUELGLWLHVLQWKHSUHVHQWDQGLQWKHSDVW,QWHQVLW\ZDVDOVR
VLJQLILFDQWO\UHODWHGWRSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVEXWQRWWRSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHV
7KHDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQSDLQFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\ZHUHH[SHFWHG
,QWHUHVWLQJO\SDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVVHHPLQJO\GLGQRWKDYHHQRXJKLQIOXHQFHWR
EHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLQWHQVLW\VLJQLILFDQWO\
:KHQDQDO\]LQJWKHEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVDQGWKHQREDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV
VHSDUDWHO\QRVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\DQG
EDFNSDLQZHUHIRXQG,QWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXSDQDO\VHVUHYHDOHG
VLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQFKURQLFLW\DQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVDQG
EHWZHHQLQWHQVLW\DQGFRPRUELGLWLHVSUHVHQWDQGSDVW
+
'LVHDVH5HODWHG$WWULEXWLRQV6WXG\SDUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGWKHSHUVRQDOLW\LWHPVWR
EHPRVWLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVHVKRZQWKURXJKWKH
FRQVLVWHQWO\KLJKHUPHDQVFRUHVDQGWKHFRQVLVWHQWO\ORZHUVWDQGDUG
GHYLDWLRQV,QRWKHUZRUGVSDUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGLWHPVWKDWDUHWUDGLWLRQDOO\
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKRQVHWRIEDFNSDLQHJ,WHP³GLVVDWLVIDFWLRQZLWKWKHZRUN
VLWXDWLRQ´,WHP³FRQVWDQWO\UHFXUULQJIDPLO\SUREOHPV´,WHP
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
189
³KRSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ´,WHP³ORVVRIDORYHGRQWKURXJKGHDWKRU
GLYRUFH´,WHP³KLJKVHOILPSRVHGH[SHFWDWLRQVIRUDFKLHYHPHQW´,WHP
³FRQWLQXRXVGHSUHVVHGPRRG´,WHP³WUDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWV´WREHPRVW
LPSRUWDQWIRUWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVH,QIDFWSDUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGDOORIWKHVH
EDFNSDLQLWHPVZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRI,WHP³KLJKVHOILPSRVHG
H[SHFWDWLRQV´WREHPRUHLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHRQVHWRIFDQFHUWKDQIRUEDFN
SDLQ$OWKRXJKWKHKLJKHVWPHDQVFRUHVRQDOOLWHPVZDVDOVRIRXQGIRU
KHDUWGLVHDVHE\6FKPLGW5DWKMHQVLWZDVH[SHFWHGWKDWWKHEDFNSDLQ
LWHPVZRXOGEHUDWHGKLJKHU7KHVHGLIIHUHQFHVPD\EHDWWULEXWHGWRWKHIDFW
WKDWWKHULVNIDFWRUVIRUKHDUWGLVHDVHHJVWUHVVDUHEHWWHUUHVHDUFKHGWKDQ
WKRVHIRUFDQFHURUEDFNSDLQ
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQVDQG&RPRUELGLWLHV$QXPEHURIFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQLWHPV
DUHVLJQLILFDQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFRPRUELGLWLHV,QWHUHVWLQJO\IRUSUHVHQW
FRPRUELGLWLHVDOORIWKHVLJQLILFDQWFRUUHODWLRQVZHUHIRXQGIRUEDFNSDLQ
6LJQLILFDQWFRUUHODWLRQVZHUHIRXQGIRU,WHPV³-REGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQ´
³&RQVWDQWSUREOHPVLQWKHIDPLO\´³5HFXUULQJDQ[LHWLHVDERXWWKHIXWXUH´
³/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRUGLYRUFH´³,QDELOLW\WRH[SUHVVIXU\
DQGDQJHU´³2IWHQQRWVKRZLQJHPRWLRQVVXFKDVVRUURZDQG
GLVDSSRLQWPHQW´DQG³&RQWLQXRXVHPRWLRQDOLQVWDELOLW\DQGVHQVLWLYHQHVV´
1RVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVDQG
FDQFHURUEHWZHHQSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHVDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH3DVW
FRPRUELGLWLHVVKRZHGRQHVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQZLWKEDFNSDLQIRU,WHP
³2IWHQQRWVKRZLQJHPRWLRQVVXFKDVVRUURZDQGGLVDSSRLQWPHQW´7KH
UHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQKHDUWGLVHDVHDQGSDVWFRPRUELGLWLHVIRU,WHPV
³+RSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ´DQG³/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRU
GLYRUFH´ZHUHVLJQLILFDQW1RVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQSDVW
FRPRUELGLWLHVDQGFDQFHU
7KHSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVIRUERWKEDFNSDLQDQGKHDUWGLVHDVHORDGHGRQWZR
SULQFLSDOO\VLPLODUIDFWRUV7KHILUVWIDFWRUFRQWDLQHGLWHPVH[SUHVVLQJ
KRSHOHVVQHVVRUGHSUHVVLRQWKHVHFRQGIDFWRULQYROYHGLWHPVPHDVXULQJ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
190
SUREOHPVDQGVWUHVV+RZHYHURQO\WKUHHLWHPVVKRZHGWKHVDPHORDGLQJ
SDWWHUQV7KLVILQGLQJVXSSRUWVWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWVDWWULEXWH
GLIIHUHQWSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVWRWKHRQVHWRIHDFKRIWKHWKUHHGLVHDVHV
+
%DFN3DLQ3DWLHQWV¶$WWULEXWLRQV$VLJQLILFDQWGLVHDVHHIIHFWZDVIRXQGIRU
EDFNSDLQFDQFHUDQGKHDUWGLVHDVH3DUWLFLSDQWVUDWHGWKHSHUVRQDOLW\
IDFWRUVORZHVWIRUEDFNSDLQKLJKHVWIRUKHDUWGLVHDVHDQGFDQFHULQWKH
PLGGOH7KHSHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRU³&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHGRXW´,WHPZDV
UDWHGE\WKHEDFNSDLQJURXSDQGWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXSWREHVWDWLVWLFDOO\
VLJQLILFDQWIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH$QDO\VHVUHYHDOHGQRJURXSHIIHFWDQGQR
LQWHUDFWLRQHIIHFW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
191
6800$5<
7KLVSDSHUH[DPLQHVWKHORZEDFNSDLQSDUDGLJPIURPWKUHHGLVWLQFWSHUVSHFWLYHV
)LUVWKRZDUHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOYDULDEOHVFRUUHODWHGZLWKFKURQLFLW\DQGLQWHQVLW\RIWKH
ORZEDFNSDLQH[SHULHQFH"6HFRQGGRFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVWHQGWRVXIIHU
IURPRWKHUVRPDWLFV\PSWRPVRUFRPRUELGLWLHV"7KLUGKRZGRHVFKURQLFORZEDFN
SDLQGHYHORS"$QDSSUDLVDORIWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQWKHRULHVDQGEHOLHIVUHJDUGLQJ
GLVHDVHRQVHWFRPSULVHVWKHILQDOVHFWLRQ*HUPDQIHPDOHVDQG*HUPDQ
PDOHV1 FRPSOHWHGDEDWWHU\RITXHVWLRQQDLUHVLQFOXGLQJFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQ
WKHRULHVDERXWGLVHDVHRQVHW6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
$QWRQRYVN\GHSUHVVLRQYRQ=HUVVHQDQGMREVDWLVIDFWLRQ1HXEDXHU
,QDGGLWLRQIRUWKHORZEDFNSDLQVDPSOHSK\VLFLDQVFRPSOHWHGDQREMHFWLYH
VFDOHDVVHVVLQJRUJDQLFFDXVHVRISDLQ5HVXOWVVKRZVLJQLILFDQWFRUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQ
WKHELRSV\FKRVRFLDOYDULDEOHVKLJKHUDJHORZHUHGXFDWLRQDQGKLJKHUGHSUHVVLRQ
VFRUHVDQGFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQ)HPDOHVORZHGXFDWLRQDQGKLJKGHSUHVVLRQ
VFRUHVFRUUHODWHVLJQLILFDQWO\ZLWKKLJKLQWHQVLW\EDFNSDLQ$VPDOOEXWVLJQLILFDQW
DVVRFLDWLRQZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQIHPDOHEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWVDQGWKHSK\VLFLDQV¶
GLDJQRVLV³SV\FKRVRPDWLFRULJLQ´+LJKHUDJH!\HDUVDQGSUHVHQWFRPRUELGLWLHV
SURYHGWREHVLJQLILFDQWYDULDEOHVIRUEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV5HJDUGLQJFDXVDO
DWWULEXWLRQVDERXWGLVHDVHRQVHWWKHYDULDEOHÄ&RQVWDQWO\EHLQJVWUHVVHGRXW³SURYHG
WREHVLJQLILFDQWLQWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQVIRUKHDUWGLVHDVH6KRZQWKURXJKWKH
FRQVLVWHQWO\KLJKHUPHDQVDQGFRQVLVWHQWO\ORZHUVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVDOO
SDUWLFLSDQWVFRQVLGHUHGWKHSHUVRQDOLW\YDULDEOHVRIWKHFDXVDODWWULEXWLRQLWHPVWREH
LPSRUWDQWIRUWKHRQVHWRIKHDUWGLVHDVH3DUWLFLSDQWVVHHPHGWREHOHVVFHUWDLQZKLFK
SHUVRQDOLW\IDFWRUVSOD\DUROHLQWKHRQVHWRIEDFNSDLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
192
5()(5(1&(6
$GDPV0$%LRPHFKDQLFVRIORZEDFNSDLQ3DLQ5HYLHZV
$NLO+0D\HU'-/LHEHVNLQG-&$QWDJRQLVPRIVWLPXODWLRQSURGXFHG
DQDOJHVLDE\QDOR[RQHDQDUFRWLFDQWDJRQLVW6FLHQFH
$NLO+:DWVRQ6-<RXQJ(/HZLV0(.KDFKDWXULDQ+:DONHU-0
(QGRJHQRXVRSLRGV%LRORJ\DQGIXQFWLRQ$QQXDO5HYLHZRI
1HXURVFLHQFH
$PHODQJ06FKPLGW5DWKMHQV&3HUV|QOLFKNHLW6WUHVVXQG.UDQNKHLW
8QWHUVXFKXQJHQ]XGHQSV\FKRPHWULVFKHQ*WHNULWHULHQGHU
.UDQNKHLWVSUlGLNWRUHQYRQ*URVVDUWK0DWLFHNXQG(\VHQFN>3HUVRQDOLW\VWUHVV
DQGGLVHDVH6WDWLVWLFDOHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHSUHGLFWRUYDULDEOHVIRUGLVHDVHIURP
*URVVDUWK0DWLFHNDQG(\VHQFN@=HLWVFKULIWIU*HVXQGKHLWVSV\FKRORJLH
$PHODQJ06FKPLGW5DWKMHQV&.RKlUHQ]VLQQDOV3UlGLNWRUXQG
6XSUHVVRUEHLGHU8QWHUVXFKXQJYRQ*HVXQGKHLWXQG.UDQNKHLW>6HQVHRI
&RKHUHQFHDVDSUHGLFWRUDQGDVXSUHVVRUYDULDEOHLQWKHH[DPLQDWLRQRIKHDOWK
DQGLOOQHVV@=HLWVFKULIWIU*HVXQGKHLWVSV\FKRORJLH
$PHODQJ06FKPLGW5DWKMHQV&0DWWKHZV*3HUVRQDOLW\FDQFHUDQG
FRURQDU\KHDUWGLVHDVH)XUWKHUHYLGHQFHRQDFRQWURYHUVLDOLVVXH%ULWLVK
-RXUQDORI+HDOWK3V\FKRORJ\
$PHULFDQ3V\FKLDWULF$VVRFLDWLRQ'LDJQRVWLFDQGVWDWLVWLFDOPDQXDORIPHQWDO
GLVRUGHUVWKHG:DVKLQJWRQ'&$XWKRU
$Q+66LOYHUL&36LPSVRQ0HWDO&RPSDULVRQRIVPRNLQJKDELWV
EHWZHHQSDWLHQWVZLWKVXUJLFDOO\FRQILUPHGKHUQLDWHGOXPEDUDQGFHUYLFDOGLVF
GLVHDVHDQGFRQWUROV-RXUQDORI6SLQDO'LVRUGHUV
$QGHUVHQ%/.LHFROW*ODVHU-.*ODVHU5$ELREHKDYLRUDOPRGHORI
FDQFHUVWUHVVDQGGLVHDVHFRXUVH$PHULFDQ3V\FKRORJLVW
$QGHUVVRQ*%-)DFWRUVLQWKHJHQHVLVDQSUHYHQWLRQRIRFFXSDWLRQDOEDFN
SDLQDQGGLVDELOLW\-RXUQDORI0DQLSXODWLYH3K\VLRORJLFDO7KHUDS\
$QWRQRYVN\$+HDOWKVWUHVVDQGFRSLQJ6DQ)UDQFLVFR-RVVH\%DVV
$QWRQRYVN\$8QUDYHOLQJWKHP\VWHU\RIKHDOWK6DQ)UDQFLVFR&$-RVVH\
%DVV
$QWRQRYVN\$7KHVWUXFWXUHDQGSURSHUWLHVRIWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH
VFDOH6RFLDO6FLHQFHDQG0HGLFLQH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
193
$WNLQVRQ-+6ODWHU0$3DWWHUVRQ7/*UDQN,*DUILQ65
3UHYDOHQFHRQVHWDQGULVNRISV\FKLDWULFGLVRUGHUVLQFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV$
FRQWUROOHGVWXG\3DLQ
%DFRQ10%DFRQ6)$WNLQVRQ-+6ODWHU0$3DWWHUVRQ7/*UDQW,
*DUILQ656RPDWL]DWLRQV\PSWRPVLQFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV
3V\FKRVRPDWLF0HGLFLQH$EVWUDFWIURP0('/,1(1XPEHU
%DQGXUD$3ULQFLSOHVRIEHKDYLRUPRGLILFDWLRQ1HZ<RUN+ROW5LQHKDUW
:LQVWRQ
%DQNV60.HUQV5'([SODLQLQJKLJKUDWHVRIGHSUHVVLRQLQFKURQLF
SDLQ$GLDWKHVLVVWUHVVIUDPHZRUN3V\FKRORJLFDO%XOOHWLQ
%DU2Q'&DXVDODWWULEXWLRQVDQGWKHUHKDELOLWDWLRQRIP\RFDUGLDOLQIDUFWLRQ
YLFWLPV-RXUQDORI6RFLDODQG&OLQLFDO3V\FKRORJ\
%DVOHU+')UDQ]&.URHQHU+HUZLJ%5HKILVFK+36HHPDQQ+(GV
3V\FKRORJLVFKH6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH>3V\FKRORJLFDO3DLQ7KHUDS\@
+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
%HFN$7&RJQLWLYHWKHUDS\DQGWKHHPRWLRQDOGLVRUGHU1HZ<RUN
,QWHUQDWLRQDO8QLYHUVLWLHV3UHVV
%HFNHU3%|V.2SSHU(:ROO$:XVWPDQV$9HUJOHLFKYRQ
+RFKJHVXQGHQ1RUPDOXQG0LQGHUJHVXQGHQLQJHVXQGKHLWVUHOHYDQWHQ
9DULDEOHQ*59>$&RPSDULVRQ%HWZHHQ+LJK1RUPDO/RZ+HDOWK
3DUWLFLSDQWVRQ+HDOWK5HODWHG9DULDEOHV@=HLWVFKULIWIU
*HVXQGKHLWVSV\FKRORJLH
%HQGHORZ*3DLQSHUFHSWLRQVHPRWLRQVDQGJHQGHU6RFLRORJ\RI+HDOWK
DQG,OOQHVV
%LJRV6-%DWWLH0&6SHQJOHU'0)LVKHU/')RUG\FH:(+DQVVRQ7+
1DFKHPVRQ$/:RUWOH\0'$SURVSHFWLYHVWXG\RIZRUN
SHUFHSWLRQVDQGSV\FKRVRFLDOIDFWRUVDIIHFWLQJWKHUHSRUWRIEDFNLQMXU\6SLQH
%ORKPNH06R]LDOPHGL]LQLVFKH$VSHNWHYRQ.UDQNKHLWHQ>6RFLDOPHGLFDO
DVSHFWVRILOOQHVV@,Q0%ORKPNH(G6R]LDOPHGL]LQ(GLWLRQ)HUGLQDQG
(QNH9HUODJ6WXWWJDUW
%OXPHU'+HLOEURQQ07KHSDLQSURQHSDWLHQW$FOLQLFDODQG
SV\FKRORJLFDOSURILOH3V\FKRVRPDWLFV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
194
%RUNDQ-0.RHV%5HLV6&KHUNLQ'&$5HSRUWIURPWKH6HFRQG
,QWHUQDWLRQDO)RUXPIRU3ULPDU\&DUH5HVHDUFKRQ/RZ%DFN3DLQ
5HH[DPLQLQJ3ULRULWLHV6SLQH
%UDGOH\--7KHPDQDJHPHQWRISDLQQG(GLWLRQ3KLODGHOSKLD/HD
)HELJHU
%UDJH6%MHUNHGDO70XVFXORVNHOHWDOSDLQDQGVPRNLQJLQ1RUZD\
-RXUQDORI(SLGHPLRORJ\&RPPXQLW\+HDOWK
%URZQ))5RELQVRQ0(5LOH\-/*UHPLOOLRQ+$3DLQVHYHULW\
QHJDWLYHDIIHFWDQGPLFURVWUHVVRUVDVSUHGLFWRUVRIOLIHLQWHUIHUHQFHLQ70'
7HPSRURPDQGLEXODUGLVRUGHUVSDWLHQWV&UDQLR
%XUQV-::LHJQHU6'HUOHWK0.LVHOLFD.3DZO5/LQNLQJ
V\PSWRPVSHFLILFSK\VLRORJLFDOUHDFWLYLW\WRSDLQVHYHULW\LQFKURQLFORZEDFN
SDLQSDWLHQWV$WHVWRIPHGLDWLRQDQGPRGHUDWLRQPRGHOV+HDOWK3V\FKRORJ\
%XUWRQ$.7LOORWVRQ.06\PRQGV7/%XUNH&0HWKHZVRQ7
2FFXSDWLRQDOULVNIDFWRUVIRUWKHILUVWRQVHWDQGVXEVHTXHQWFRXUVHRIORZEDFN
WURXEOH$VWXG\RIVHUYLQJSROLFHRIILFHUV6SLQH
&DODLV*HUPDLQ%$QDWRP\RI0RYHPHQW6HDWWOH(DVWODQG3UHVV
&DPSEHOO'76WDQOH\-&([SHULPHQWDODQG4XDVL([SHULPHQWDO'HVLJQV
IRU5HVHDUFK%RVWRQ+RXJKWRQ0LIIOLQ&RPSDQ\
&KDSPDQ&51DNDPXUD<)ORUHV/<&KURQLF3DLQDQG
&RQVFLRXVQHVV$&RQVWUXFWLYLVW3HUVSHFWLYH,Q5-*DWFKHODQG'&7XUN
(GV3V\FKRVRFLDO)DFWRUVLQ3DLQ&ULWLFDO3HUVSHFWLYHV1HZ<RUN
*XLOIRUG3UHVV
&KDSPDQP&56WLOOPDQ03DWKRORJLFDOSDLQ,Q/.UXJHU(G3DLQ
DQG7RXFKQGHG1HZ<RUN$FDGHPLF3UHVV
&KURXVRV*35HJXODWLRQDQGG\VUHJXODWLRQRIWKHK\SRWKDODPLFSLWXLWDU\
DGUHQDOD[LV(QGRFULQRORJ\DQG0HWDEROLVP&OLQLFVRI1RUWK$PHULFD
&KURXVRV*3*ROG3:7KHFRQFHSWVRIVWUHVVDQGVWUHVVV\VWHP
GLVRUGHUV-RXUQDORIWKH$PHULFDQ0HGLFDO$VVRFLDWLRQ
&LRIIL'%H\RQGDWWHQWLRQDOVWUDWHJLHV$FRJQLWLYHSHUFHSWXDOPRGHORI
VRPDWLFLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ3V\FKRORJLFDO%XOOHWLQ
&RG\536PLWK-.$SSOLHG6WDWLVWLFVDQGWKH6$63URJUDPPLQJ
/DQJXDJHWK(GLWLRQ1HZ-HUVH\3UHQWLFH+DOO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
195
&RJDQ5&RJDQ':DOW]P:0F&XH0(IIHFWVRIODXJKWHUDQG
UHOD[DWLRQRQGLVFRPIRUWWKUHVKROGV-RXUQDORI%HKDYLRUDO0HGLFLQH
&RVWD37-U0F&UDH557KH1(2SHUVRQDOLW\LQYHQWRU\PDQXDO
2UODQGR)/3V\FKRORJLFDO$VVHVVPHQW5HVRXUFHV
&R['&(G/RZ%DFN3DLQ0HFKDQLVP'LDJQRVLVDQG7UHDWPHQW
%DOWLPRUH:LOOLDPV:LONLQV
&R[*%&KDSPDQ&5%ODFN5*7KH003,DQGFKURQLFSDLQ7KH
GLDJQRVLVRISV\FKRJHQLFSDLQ-RXUQDORI%HKDYLRUDO0HGLFLQH
&URIW353DSDJHRUJLRXV$&)HUU\6HWDO3V\FKRORJLFGLVWUHVVDQGORZ
EDFNSDLQ(YLGHQFHIURPDSURVSHFWLYHVWXG\LQWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ6SLQH
&URIW355LJE\$66RFLRHFRQRPLFLQIOXHQFHVRQEDFNSUREOHPVLQWKH
FRPPXQLW\RI%ULWDLQ>2QOLQH@-RXUQDORI(SLGHPLRORJ\&RPPXQLW\+HDOWK
$EVWUDFWIURP3V\F,1)21XPEHU
&URQEDFK/-&RHIILFLHQWDOSKDDQGWKHLQWHUQDOVWUXFWXUHRIWHVWV
3V\FKRPHWULND
'H%URXFNHU7&HVDUR3:LOOHU-&/H%DUV''LIIXVHQR[LRXV
LQKLELWRU\FRQWUROVLQPDQ,QYROYHPHQWRIWKHVSLQRUHWLFXODUWUDFW%UDLQ
'H\R5$7VXL:X<'HVFULSWLYHHSLGHPLRORJ\RIORZEDFNSDLQDQGLWV
UHODWHGPHGLFDOFDUHLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV6SLQH
'LRQQH&(.RUII0YRQ.HRSVHOO7''H\R5$%DUORZ:(&KHFNRZD\
+)RUPDOHGXFDWLRQDQGEDFNSDLQ$UHYLHZ-RXUQDORI(SLGHPLRORJ\
DQG&RPPXQLW\+HDOWK$EVWUDFWIURP3V\F,1)21XPEHU
'RZQH\*6LOYHU5&:RUWPDQ&%5HFRQVLGHULQJWKHDWWULEXWLRQ
DGMXVWPHQWUHODWLRQIROORZLQJDPDMRUQHJDWLYHHYHQW&RSLQJZLWKWKHORVVRI
DFKLOG-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDOLW\DQG6RFLDO3V\FKRORJ\
'LDJQRVWLFDQG6WDWLVWLFDO0DQXDORI0HQWDO'LVRUGHUV'60,9, .:DVKLQJWRQ
'&$PHULFDQ3V\FKLDWULF$VVRFLDWLRQ
'XQNHO6FKHWWHU&)HLQVWHLQ/*7D\ORU6()DONH5/3DWWHUQVRI
FRSLQJZLWKFDQFHU+HDOWK3V\FKRORJ\
'ZRUNLQ5+:KLFKLQGLYLGXDOVZLWKDFXWHSDLQDUHPRVWOLNHO\WRGHYHORS
FKURQLFSDLQV\QGURPH"3DLQ)RUXP
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
196
'ZRUNLQ5+%DQNV60$9XOQHUQDELOLW\'LDWKHVLV6WUHVV0RGHORI
&KURQLF3DLQ+HUSHV=RVWHUDQGWKH'HYHORSPHQWRI3RVWKHUSHXWLF1HXUDOJLD
,Q5-*DWFKHO'&7XUN(GV3V\FKRVRFLDO)DFWRUVLQ3DLQ&ULWLFDO
3HUVSHFWLYHV1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG3UHVV
(QJHO*/³3V\FKRJHQLF´SDLQDQGWKHSDLQSURQHSDWLHQW$PHULFDQ-RXUQDO
RI0HGLFLQH
(SNHU-%ORFN$53UHVXUJLFDOSV\FKRORJLFDOVFUHHQLQJLQEDFNSDLQ
SDWLHQWV$UHYLHZ7KH&OLQLFDO-RXUQDORI3DLQ
)DOOHU+6XEMHNWLYH.UDQNKHLWVWKHRULHQ'HWHUPLQDQWHQRGHU(SLSKlQRPHQH
GHU.UDQNKHLWVYHUDUEHLWXQJ">6XEMHFWLYH7KHRULHVDERXW'LVHDVH'HWHUPLQDQWV
RUD3KHQRPHQRQRI'LVHDVH$FFHSWDQFH@=HLWVFKULIWIU3V\FKRVRPDWLVFKH
0HGL]LQXQG3V\FKRDQDO\VH
)H\HU$0:LOOLDPVRQ$0DQGU\N-GH6LOYD,HWDO5ROHRI
SV\FKRVRFLDOULVNIDFWRUVLQZRUNUHODWHGORZEDFNSDLQ6FDQGLQDYLDQ-RXUQDO
RI:RUN(QYLURQPHQW+HDOWK$EVWUDFWIURP3V\F,1)2
1XPEHU
)LHOGV+/3DLQ1HZ<RUN0F*UDZ+LOO
)LOLSS+66XEMHNWLYH7KHRULHQDOV)RUVFKXQJVJHJHQVWDQG>6XEMHFWLYH
WKHRULHVLQUHVHDUFK@,Q56FKZDU]HU(G*HVXQGKHLWVSV\FKRORJLH>+HDOWK
3V\FKRORJ\@*|WWLQJHQ+RJUHIH
)LOOLQJKDP5%0DL[QHU:7KHLQIOXHQFHRIUHVWLQJEORRGSUHVVXUHDQG
JHQGHURQSDLQUHVSRQVHV3V\FKRVRPDWLF0HGLFLQH
)LVKEDLQ'$&XWOHU55RVRPRII+/5RVRPRII56&KURQLFSDLQ
DVVRFLDWHGGHSUHVVLRQ$QWHFHGHQWRUFRQVHTXHQFHRIFKURQLFSDLQ"$UHYLHZ
&OLQLFDO-RXUQDORI3DLQ
)LVKEDLQ'$*ROGEHUJ00HDJKHU%56WHHOH55RVRPRII+0DOH
DQGIHPDOHFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWVFDWHJRUL]HGE\'60,,,SV\FKLDWULFGLDJQRVWLF
FULWHULD3DLQ
)ORU+9HUKDOWHQVPHGL]LQLVFKH*UXQGODJHQFKURQLVFKHU6FKPHU]HQ
>%HKDYLRUDOPHGLFDOSHUVSHFWLYHRIFKURQLFSDLQ@,Q%DVOHU+')UDQ]&
.URHQHU+HUZLJ%5HKILVFK+36HHPDQQ+(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH
6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
)ORU+%LUEDXPHU17XUN'&7KHSV\FKRORJ\RIFKURQLFSDLQ
$GYDQFHVLQ%HKDYLRU5HVHDUFKDQG7KHUDS\
)ORU+7XUN'&(WLRORJLFDOWKHRULHVDQGWUHDWPHQWVIRUFKURQLFEDFN
SDLQ,6RPDWLFPRGHOVDQGLQWHUYHQWLRQV3DLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
197
)ORU+7XUN'&3V\FKRSK\VLRORJ\RIFKURQLFSDLQ'RFKURQLFSDLQ
SDWLHQWVH[KLELWV\PSWRPVSHFLILFSV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDOUHVSRQVHV"
3V\FKRORJLFDO%XOOHWLQ
)ORU+7XUN'&%LUEDXPHU1$VVHVVPHQWRIVWUHVVUHODWHG
SV\FKRSK\VLRORJLFDOUHVSRQVHVLQFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV-RXUQDORI&RQVXOWLQJ
DQG&OLQLFDO3V\FKRORJ\
)RJHOKROP55$OKR$96PRNLQJDQGLQWHUYHUWHEUDOGLVFGHJHQHUDWLRQ
0HGLFDO+\SRWKHVHV$EVWUDFWIURP,GHDOLEUDU\1XPEHU
)RUG\FH:(%HKDYLRUDOPHWKRGVLQFKURQLFSDLQDQGLOOQHVV6W/RXLV
0RVE\
)RUG\FH:(6KHOWRQ-'XQGRUH'7KHPRGLILFDWLRQRIDYRLGDQFH
OHDUQLQJSDLQEHKDYLRUV-RXUQDORI%HKDYLRUDO0HGLFLQH
)ULHGPDQ+6%RRWK.HZOH\67KH³GLVHDVHSURQHSHUVRQDOLW\´$PHWD
DQDO\WLFYLHZRIWKHFRQVWUXFW$PHULFDQ3V\FKRORJLVW
)\GULFK7)ORU+'LH5ROOHGHU)DPLOLHEHLFKURQLVFKHQ6FKPHU]HQ>7KH
5ROHRIWKH)DPLO\ZLWK&KURQLF3DLQ3DWLHQWV@,Q+'%DVOHU&)UDQ]%
.U|QHU+HUZLJ+35HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH
6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH>3V\FKRORJLFDO3DLQ7KHUDS\@+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
*DURIDOR-33RODWLQ3/RZEDFNSDLQ$QHSLGHPLFLQLQGXVWULDOL]HG
FRXQWULHV,Q5-*DWFKHO'&7XUN(GV3V\FKRVRFLDOIDFWRUVLQ3DLQ
&ULWLFDO3HUVSHFWLYHV1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG3UHVV
*DVNLQ0(*UHHQ$)5RELQVRQ0(*HLVVHU0(1HJDWLYHHIIHFW
DQGWKHH[SHULHQFHRIFKURQLFSDLQ-RXUQDORI3V\FKRVRPDWLF5HVHDUFK
*DWFKHO5-3V\FKRORJLFDOGLVRUGHUVDQGFKURQLFSDLQ&DXVHDQGHIIHFW
UHODWLRQVKLSV,Q5-*DWFKHO'&7XUN(GV3V\FKRORJLFDODSSURDFKHVWR
SDLQPDQDJHPHQW$SUDFWLRQHU¶VKDQGERRN1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG3UHVV
*DWFKHO5-*DUGHD0$3V\FKRVRFLDOLVVXHV7KHLULPSRUWDQFHLQ
SUHGLFWLQJGLVDELOLW\UHVSRQVHWRWUHDWPHQWDQGVHDUFKIRUFRPSHQVDWLRQ
1HXURORJLF&OLQLFVRI1RUWK$PHULFDQ
*DWFKHO5-3RODWLQ3%0D\HU7*7KHGRPLQDQWUROHRISV\FKRVRFLDO
ULVNIDFWRUVLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQGLVDELOLW\6SLQH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
198
*DWFKHO5-3RODWLQ3%0D\HU7**DUF\3'3V\FKRSDWKRORJ\DQG
WKHUHKDELOLWDWLRQRISDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQ$UFKLYHVRI3K\VLFDO
0HGLFLQHDQG5HKDELOLWDWLRQ
*HLVVHU0(*DVNLQ0(5RELQVRQ0(*UHHQH$)7KHUHODWLRQVKLS
RIGHSUHVVLRQDQGVRPDWLFIRFXVWRH[SHULPHQWDODQGFOLQLFDOSDLQLQFKURQLF
SDLQSDWLHQWV3V\FKRORJ\DQG+HDOWK
*HLVVHU0(5RWK565RELQVRQ0($VVHVVLQJGHSUHVVLRQDPRQJ
SHUVRQVZLWKFKURQLFSDLQXVLQJWKH&HQWHUIRU(SLGHPLRORJLFDO6WXGLHV
'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOHDQGWKH%HFN'HSUHVVLRQ,QYHQWRU\$FRPSDUDWLYHDQDO\VLV
&OLQLFDO-RXUQDORI3DLQ
*HUEHU:'0LJUlQH>0LJUDLQH+HDGDFKHV@,Q+'%DVOHU&)UDQ]%
.U|QHU+HUZLJ+35HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH
6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH>3V\FKRORJLFDO3DLQ7KHUDS\@+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
*HUEHU:'+DVHQEULQJ0&KURQLVFKH*HVLFKWVVFKPHU]HQ>&KURQLF
+HDGDFKH'LVRUGHUV@,Q+'%DVOHU&)UDQ]%.U|QHU+HUZLJ+3
5HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH>3V\FKRORJLFDO
3DLQ7KHUDS\@+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
*UDYHU9/MXQJJUHQ$(0DOW8)/RHE0HWDO&DQSV\FKRORJLFDO
WUDLWVSUHGLFWWKHRXWFRPHRIOXPEDUGLVFVXUJHU\ZKHQDQDPQHVWLFDQG
SK\VLRORJLFDOULVNIDFWRUVDUHFRQWUROOHG"5HVXOWVRIDSURVSHFWLYHFRKRUWVWXG\
-RXUQDORI3V\FKRVRPDWLF5HVHDUFK$EVWUDFWIURP3V\F,1)2
1XPEHU
*URHEHQ1([SOLNDWLRQGHV.RQVWUXNWV³6XEMHFWLYH7KHRULH´>([SORUDWLRQRI
WKHFRQVWUXFW³VXEMHFWLYHWKHRULHV´@,Q1*URHEHQ':DKO-6FKOHH%
6FKOHH(GV'DV)RUVFKXQJVSURJUDPP6XEMHNWLYH7KHRULHQ>5HVHDUFK
SURJUDPVXEMHFWLYHWKHRULHV@7ELQJHQ)UDQFNH
+lJJ2)ULW]HOO31RUGZDOO$WKH6ZHGLVK/XPEDU6SLQH6WXG\*URXS
&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRISDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQVHOHFWHGIRUVXUJHU\$
FRPSDULVRQZLWKWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQUHSRUWHGIRUPWKH6ZHGLVK/XPEDU
6SLQH6WXG\6SLQH
+DQVHQ)5%LHULQJ6RUHQVRQ)6FKUROO00LQQHVRWD0XOWLSKDVLF
3HUVRQDOLW\,QYHQWRU\SURILOHVLQSHUVRQVZLWKRUZLWKRXWORZEDFNSDLQ$
\HDUIROORZXSVWXG\6SLQH
+DQYLN/-003,SURILOHVLQSDWLHQWVZLWKORZEDFNSDLQ-RXUQDORI
&RQVXOWLQJ3V\FKRORJ\
+DVHQEULQJ0&KURQLIL]LHUXQJEDQGVFKHLEHQEHGLQJWHU6FKPHU]HQ
>&KURQLILFDWLRQRI/RZ%DFN3DLQ'XHWR'LVN3UREOHPV@6WXWWJDUW6FKDWWDXHU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
199
+DVHQEULQJ03UR]HVVHGHU&KURQLIL]LHUXQJYRQ6FKPHU]HQ>3URFHVVHV
LQYROYHGLQWKHFKURQLILFDWLRQRISDLQ@,Q+'%DVOHU&)UDQ]%.URHQHU
+HUZLJ+35HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH
6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
+DVHQEULQJ00DULHQIHOG*.XKOHQGDKO'6R\ND'5LVNIDFWRUVRI
FKURQLFLW\LQOXPEDUGLVFSDWLHQWV$SURVSHFWLYHLQYHVWLJDWLRQRIELRORJLF
SV\FKRORJLFDQGVRFLDOSUHGLFWRUVRIWKHUDS\RXWFRPH6SLQH
+DWKDZD\650F.LQOH\-0LQQHVRWD0XOWLSKDVLF3HUVRQDOLW\,QYHQWRU\
0LQQHDSROLV8QLYHUVLW\RI0LQQHVRWD3UHVV
+DWFKHU/6WHSDQVNL($6WHSE\6WHS$SSURDFKWR8VLQJWKH6$6
6\VWHPIRU8QLYDULDWHDQG0XOWLYDULDWH6WDWLVWLFV&DU\1&6$6,QVWLWXWH,QF
+LOGHEUDQGW9+%RQJHU30'XO-9DQ'LMN)-.HPSHU+&
,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIKLJKULVNJURXSVDPRQJPDLQWHQDQFHZRUNHUVLQDVWHHO
FRPSDQ\ZLWKUHVSHFWWRPXVFXORVNHOHWDOV\PSWRPVDQGZRUNORDG
(UJRQRPLFV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI0HQWDODQG%HKDYLRXUDO'LVRUGHUV,&'
*HQHYD:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQ
-RXNDPDD0'HSUHVVLRQDQGEDFNSDLQ$FWD3V\FKLDWULFD6FDQGLQDYLFD
.DSLW:0DFH\5,0HLVDPL(7KH3K\VLRORJ\&RORULQJ%RRN6DQ
)UDQFLVFR%HQMDPLQ&XPPLQJV
.DSODQ505LHV$/3UHZLWW/0(DNLQ(6HOIHIILFDF\H[SHFWDWLRQV
SUHGLFWVXUYLYDOIRUSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFREVWUXFWLYHSXOPRQDU\GLVHDVH+HDOWK
3V\FKRORJ\
.DURO\35XHKOPDQ/60RWLYDWLRQDOLPSOLFDWLRQRISDLQ&KURQLFLW\
SV\FKRORJLFDOGLVWUHVVDQGZRUNJOREDOFRQVWUXDOLQDQDWLRQDOVDPSOHRI
DGXOWV+HDOWK3V\FKRORJ\
.DW]--DFNVRQ0.DYDQDJK%36DQGOHU$1$FXWHSDLQDIWHU
WKRUDWLFVXUJHU\SUHGLFWVORQJWHUPSRVWWKRUDFRWRP\SDLQ&OLQLFDO-RXUQDORI
3DLQ
.HHIH)-'XQVPRUH-%XUQHWW5%HKDYLRUDODQGFRJQLWLYHEHKDYLRUDO
DSSURDFKHVWRFKURQLFSDLQ5HFHQWDGYDQFHVDQGIXWXUHGLUHFWLRQV-RXUQDORI
&RQVXOWLQJDQG&OLQLFDO3V\FKRORJ\
.HQGOHU.6.HVVOHU5&+HDWK$&1HDOH0&(DYHV/-&RSLQJ$
JHQHWLFHSLGHPLRORJLFDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQ3V\FKRORJLFDO0HGLFLQH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
200
.HRSK(0DQVRRU/,QYHVWLJDWLQJWKHHIIHFWVRIDQ[LHW\VHQVLWLYLW\DQG
FRSLQJRQWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIFROGSUHVVXUHSDLQLQKHDOWK\ZRPHQ(XURSHDQ
-RXUQDORI3DLQ$EVWUDFWIURP,GHDOLEUDU\1XPEHU
.HUQV5''ZRUNLQ5+5RPDQR-07KRUQ%(:LOOLDPV'$
3V\FKRVRFLDO5HVHDUFK6SHFLDO,QWHUHVW*URXS+LVWRU\$GYDQFHVDQG
&KDOOHQJHV$PHULFDQ3DLQ6RFLHW\%XOOHWLQ
.HUQV5'7XUN'&5XG\7(7KH:HVW+DYHQ<DOH0XOWLGLPHQVLRQDO
3DLQ,QYHQWRU\3DLQ
.HUU06)UDQN-:6KDQQRQ+61RUPDQ5::HOOV531HXPDQQ3
%RPEDUGLHU&%LRPHFKDQLFDODQGSV\FKRVRFLDOULVNIDFWRUVIRUORZ
EDFNSDLQDWZRUN$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI3XEOLF+HDOWK
$EVWUDFWIURP3V\F,1)21XPEHU
.UDXVH1%DFNDQGQHFNSDLQLQ6DQ)UDQFLVFREXVGULYHUV7KHUROHRI
ELRPHFKDQLFDODQGSV\FKRVRFLDOMREIDFWRUV'LVVHUWDWLRQ$EVWUDFWV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO6HFWLRQ%7KH6FLHQFHV(QJLQHHULQJ%SS
$EVWUDFWIURP3V\F,1)21XPEHU
.URHQHU+HUZLJ%&KURQLVFKHU6FKPHU]±(LQH*HJHQVWDQGVEHVWLPPXQJ
>&KURQLF3DLQ±$'HILQLWLRQ@,Q+'%DVOHU&)UDQ]%.URHQHU+HUZLJ
+35HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH
+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
.URHQHU+HUZLJ%'LH6FKPHU]SHUV|QOLFKNHLW±(LQH)LNWLRQ">3DLQ
SHUVRQDOLW\±)DFWRUILFWLRQ"@,Q+'%DVOHU&)UDQ]%.URHQHU+HUZLJ
+35HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH
+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
.URHQHU+HUZLJ%3V\FKRVR]LDOH'LDJQRVWLNLQGHU6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH
>3V\FKRVRFLDOGLDJQRVWLFFULWHULDLQSDLQWKHUDS\@,Q+'%DVOHU&)UDQ]
%.URHQHU+HUZLJ+35HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH
6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
.URHQHU+HUZLJ%5FNHQVFKPHU]>%DFN3DLQ@+RJUHIH*|WWLQJHQ
.URHQHU+HUZLJ%-DNOH&)UHWWORK-3HWHUV.6HHPDQQ+)UDQ]&
%DVOHU+'3UHGLFWLQJVXEMHFWLYHGLVDELOLW\LQFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI%HKDYLRUDO0HGLFLQH
/DKDG$0DOWHU$'%HUJ$2HWDO7KHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIIRXU
LQWHUYHQWLRQVIRUWKHSUHYHQWLRQRIORZEDFNSDLQ-RXUQDORI$PHULFDQ0HGLFDO
$VVRFLDWLRQ-$0$
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
201
/DX(0(JJHU3&RJJRQ'&RRSHU&9DOHQWL/2¶&RQQHOO'/RZ
EDFNSDLQLQ+RQJ.RQJ3UHYDOHQFHDQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVFRPSDUHGWR%ULWDLQ
-RXUQDORI(SLGHPLRORJ\DQG&RPPXQLW\+HDOWK
/D]DUXV56)RONPDQ66WUHVVDSSUDLVDODQGFRSLQJ1HZ<RUN
6SULQJHU
/HERHXI<GH&.ORXJDUW1/DXULW]HQ7+RZFRPPRQLVORZEDFNSDLQ
LQWKH1RUGLFSRSXODWLRQ"'DWDIURPDUHFHQWVWXG\RQPLGGOHDJHGJHQHUDO
'DQLVKSRSXODWLRQDQIRXUVXUYH\VSUHYLRXVO\FRQGXFWHGLQWKH1RUGLF
FRXQWULHV6SLQH
/HLQR30DJQL*'HSUHVVLYHDQGGLVWUHVVV\PSWRPVDVSUHGLFWRUVRIORZ
EDFNSDLQQHFNVKRXOGHUSDLQDQGRWKHUPXVFXORVNHOHWDOPRUELGLW\$WHQ
\HDUIROORZXSRIPHWDOLQGXVWU\HPSOR\HHV3DLQ
/HZLV-:7HUPDQ6:6KDYLW<1HOVRQ/5/LHEHVNLQG-'
1HXUDOQHXURFKHPLFDODQGKRUPRQDOEDVHVRIVWUHVVLQGXFHGDQDOJHVLD,Q/
.UXJHU-&/LHEHVNLQG(GV$GYDQFHVLQSDLQUHVHDUFKDQGWKHUDS\
1HZ<RUN5DYHQ3UHVV
/LQWRQ67KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDFWLYLW\DQGFKURQLFSDFNSDLQ3DLQ
/LQWRQ6-$SRSXODWLRQEDVHGVWXG\RIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQVH[XDO
DEXVHDQGEDFNSDLQ(VWDEOLVKLQJDOLQN3DLQ
/LQWRQ6-2FFXSDWLRQDOSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVLQFUHDVHWKHULVNIRUEDFN
SDLQ$V\VWHPDWLFUHYLHZ-RXUQDORI2FFXSDWLRQDO5HKDELOLWDWLRQ
$EVWUDFWIURP3V\F,1)21XPEHU
/LQWRQ6-+HOOVLQJ$/%U\QJHOVVRQ,/3V\FKRVRFLDODQGIXQFWLRQDO
ULVNIDFWRUVLQWKHHDUO\VWDJHVRIEDFNSDLQ(IIHFWRQPRGHUDWHSDLQ
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI%HKDYLRUDO0HGLFLQH6SHFLDO,VVXH%HKDYLRUDO
IDFWRUVDQGLQWHUYHQWLRQVLQSDLQDQGPXVFXORVNHOHWDOGLVRUGHUV
$EVWUDFWIURP3V\F,1)21XPEHU
/RUDQJHU$:/HKPDQQ6XVPDQ92OGKDP-5XVVDNRI/0
3HUVRQDOLW\'LVRUGHU([DPLQDWLRQ3'($VWUXFWXUHGLQWHUYLHZIRU'60,,,5
SHUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUV:KLWH3ODLQ1<1HZ<RUN+RVSLWDO&RUQHOO0HGLFDO
&HQWHU:HVWFKHVWHU'LYLVLRQ
/RYH$:3HFN&/7KH003,DQGSV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVLQFKURQLFORZ
EDFNSDLQ$UHYLHZ3DLQ
0DHV6/HYHQWKDO+'H5LGGHU'7'&RSLQJZLWKFKURQLFGLVHDVH,Q
0=HLGQHU16(QGOHU(GV+DQGEXFKRIFRSLQJ7KHRU\UHVHDUFKDQG
DSSOLFDWLRQV1HZ<RUN:LOH\
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
202
0DJQL*0RUHVFKL&5LJDWWL/XFKLQL60HUVNH\+3URVSHFWLYHVWXG\
RQWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQGHSUHVVLYHV\PSWRPVDQGFKURQLFPXVFXORVNHOHWDO
SDLQ3DLQ
0DOHQIDQW$)RUJHW53DSLOORQ5$PVHO5)ULJRQ-<&KRLQLqUH0
3UHYDOHQFHDQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIFKURQLFVHQVRU\SUREOHPVLQEXUQ
SDWLHQWV3DLQ
0DQQLRQ$)'RODQ3$GDPV0$'R³DEQRUPDO´VFRUHVSUHFHGHRUIROORZ
ILUVWWLPHORZEDFNSDLQ"6SLQH
0D\HU7*5DWLRQDOHIRUPRGHUQVSLQDOFDUH,Q7*0D\HU90RRQH\
5-*DWFKHO(GV&RQWHPSRUDU\FRQVHUYDWLYHFDUHIRUSDLQIXOVSLQDO
GLVRUGHUV3KLODGHOSKLD/HD)HELJHU
0D\HU7**DWFKHO5-)XQFWLRQDOUHVWRUDWLRQIRUVSLQDOGLVRUGHUV7KH
VSRUWVPHGLFLQHDSSURDFK3KLODGHOSKLD/HD)HELJHU
0F&DUURQ5)/DURV*6:KDWLVWKHFDXVHRI\RXUSDWLHQW¶VVFLDWLFD"
-RXUQDORI0XVFXORVNHOHWDO0HGLFLQH-XQH
0F&UDFNHQ/0*URVV576RUJ3-(GPDQGV7$3UHGLFWLRQRISDLQ
LQSDWLHQWVZLWKFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQ(IIHFWVRILQDFFXUDWHSUHGLFWLRQDQG
SDLQUHODWHGDQ[LHW\%HKDYLRXU5HVHDUFKDQG7KHUDS\
0F&UDH55&RVWD573HUVRQDOLW\FRSLQJDQGFRSLQJHIIHFWLYHQHVVLQ
DQDGXOWVDPSOH-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDOLW\
0HO]DFN57KH0F*LOO3DLQ4XHVWLRQQDLUH0DMRUSURSHUWLHVDQGVFRULQJ
PHWKRGV3DLQ
0HO]DFN53DLQDQG6WUHVV$1HZ3HUVSHFWLYH,Q5-*DWFKHO'&7XUN
(GV3V\FKRVRFLDO)DFWRUVLQ3DLQ&ULWLFDO3HUVSHFWLYHV1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG
3UHVV
0HO]DFN5:DOO3'3DLQPHFKDQLVPV$QHZWKHRU\6FLHQFH
0HO]DFN5:DOO3'7KHFKDOOHQJHRISDLQ1HZ<RUN%DVLF%RRNV
0HO]DFN5:DOO3'7KHFKDOOHQJHRISDLQQGHG/RQGRQ3HQJXLQ
%RRNV
0HUFDGR$&&DUUROO/-&DVVLG\-'&|Wp3&RSLQJZLWKQHFNDQG
ORZEDFNSDLQLQWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ+HDOWK3V\FKRORJ\
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
203
0HUVNH\+(G&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIFKURQLFSDLQ'HVFULSWLRQVRIFKURQLFSDLQ
V\QGURPHVDQGGHILQLWLRQVRISDLQWHUPV3DLQ
0LDVNRZVNL&7KH5ROHRI6H[DQG*HQGHULQ3DLQ3HUFHSWLRQDQG5HVSRQVH
WR7UHDWPHQW,Q5-*DWFKHO'&7XUN(GV3V\FKRVRFLDO)DFWRUVLQ3DLQ
&ULWLFDO3HUVSHFWLYHV1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG3UHVV
0LHGHPD+6&KRUXV$0-:HYHUV&:-YDQGHU/LQGHQ6
&KURQLFLW\RIEDFNSUREOHPVGXULQJZRUNLQJOLIH6SLQH
0REEV5-1HZFRPEH5/1DGDQD&KDQGUDQ.1/XPEDUGLVFHFWRP\
DQGWKHGLDEHWLFSDWLHQW,QFLGHQFHDQGRXWFRPH-RXUQDORI&OLQLFDO
1HXURVFLHQFH$EVWUDFWIURP,GHDOLEUDU\1XPEHU
1HXEDXHU(.XU]IUDJHERJHQ]XU(LQVFKlW]XQJGHV&KURQLIL]LHUXQJVULVLNRV
EHL5FNHQVFKPHU]HQ>6KRUW4XHVWLRQQDLUHIRUFODVVLI\LQJWKHULVNRI
FKURQLILFDWLRQLQEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV@2UWKRSlGLH
1LFDVVLR305DGRMHYLF96FKRHQIHOG6PLWK.'Z\HU.7KH
FRQWULEXWLRQRIIDPLO\FRKHVLRQDQGWKHSDLQFRSLQJSURFHVVWRGHSUHVVLYH
V\PSWRPVLQILEURP\DOJLD$QQDOVRI%HKDYLRUDO0HGLFLQH
1RY\'01HOVRQ'9)UDQFHV'-7XUN'&3HUVSHFWLYHVRIFKURQLF
SDLQ$QHYDOXDWLYHFRPSDULVRQRIUHVWULFWLYHDQGFRPSUHKHQVLYHPRGHOV
3V\FKRORJLFDO%XOOHWLQ
2OPDUNHU.+DVXH0&ODVVLILFDWLRQDQGSDWKRSK\VLRORJ\RIVSLQDOSDLQ
V\QGURPHV,Q-1:HLQVWHLQ$%/5\GHYLN.+6RQQWDJ(GV
(VVHQWLDOVRIWKH6SLQH1HZ<RUN5DYHQ
3HQQHEDNHU-:7KHSV\FKRORJ\RISK\VLFDOV\PSWRPV1HZ<RUN6SULQJHU
3HUURW6>)DFWRUVLQWKHFKURQLFSURJUHVVLRQRIFRPPRQORZEDFNSDLQ@
>$UWLFOHLQ)UHQFK@5HY3UDW$EVWUDFWIURP3XE0HG
1XPEHU
3HUW&%6Q\GHU62SLDWHUHFHSWRU'HPRQVWUDWLRQLQQHUYRXVWLVVXH
6FLHQFH
3ILQJVWHQ0.DOX]D*+LOGHEUDQW-5FNHQVFKPHU]HQ>%DFN3DLQ@,Q+
'%DVOHU&)UDQ]%.U|QHU+HUZLJ+35HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV
3V\FKRORJLVFKH6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
3IRKO%%OXP1=LPPHUPDQ06WUXFWXUHG,QWHUYLHZIRU'60,9
3HUVRQDOLW\'LVRUGHUV,RZD&LW\8QLYHUVLW\RI,RZD
3LQFXV7%XUWRQ$.9RJHO6)LHOG$3$6\VWHPDWLF5HYLHZRI
3V\FKRORJLFDO)DFWRUVDV3UHGLFWRUVRI&KURQLFLW\'LVDELOLW\LQ3URVSHFWLYH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
204
&RKRUWRI/RZ%DFN3DLQ6SLQH$EVWUDFWIURP/LSSLQFRWW
:LOOLDPV:LONLQV1XPEHU6SLQH((
3RODWLQ3%.LQQH\5.*DWFKHO5-/LOOR(0D\HU7*3V\FKLDWULF
LOOQHVVDQGFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQ6SLQH
5DFKPDQ6$UQW]$7KHRYHUSUHGLFWLRQDQGXQGHUSUHGLFWLRQRISDLQ
&OLQLFDO3V\FKRORJ\5HYLHZ
5HHVRU.$&UDLJ.0HGLFDOO\LQFRQJUXHQWFKURQLFSDLQ3K\VLFDO
OLPLWDWLRQVVXIIHULQJDQGLQHIIHFWLYHFRSLQJ3DLQ
5H\QROGV'96XUJHU\LQWKHUDWGXULQJHOHFWULFDODQDOJHVLDLQGXFHGE\IRFDO
EUDLQVWLPXODWLRQ6FLHQFH
5LFKDUG.7KHRFFXUUHQFHRIPDODGDSWLYHKHDOWKUHODWHGEHKDYLRUVDQG
WHDFKHUUHODWHGFRQGXFWSUREOHPVLQFKLOGUHQRIORZEDFNSDLQSDWLHQWV
-RXUQDORI%HKDYLRUDO0HGLFLQH
5LOH\-/5RELQVRQ0(7KH&RSLQJ6WUDWHJLHV4XHVWLRQQDLUH)LYH
IDFWRUVRUILFWLRQ"&OLQLFDO-RXUQDORI3DLQ
5RELQVRQ0(5LOH\-/,,,7KH5ROHRI(PRWLRQLQ3DLQ,Q5-*DWFKHO
DQG'&7XUN(GV3V\FKRVRFLDO)DFWRUVLQ3DLQ&ULWLFDO3HUVSHFWLYHV
1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG3UHVV
6DORYH\3%LUQEDXP',QIOXHQFHRIPRRGRQKHDOWKUHOHYDQWFRJQLWLRQV
-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDOLW\DQG6RFLDO3V\FKRORJ\
6DQGHUV6+5LVN)DFWRUVIRU&KURQLF'LVDEOLQJ/RZ%DFN3DLQ$Q8SGDWH
IRU$PHULFDQ3DLQ6RFLHW\%XOOHWLQ
6DSROVN\501HXURHQGRFULQRORJ\RIWKHVWUHVVUHVSRQVH,Q-%%HFNHU
60%UHHGORYH'&UHZV(GV%HKDYLRUDOHQGRFULQRORJ\&DPEULGJH0$
0,73UHVV
6$6,QVWLWXWH,QF6$63URFHGXUHV*XLGH&DU\1&6$6,QVWLWXWH,QF
6$6,QVWLWXWH,QF6$68VHU¶V*XLGH9ROXPHV&DU\1&6$6
,QVWLWXWH,QF
6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV&3HUV|QOLFKNHLWXQG.UHEV6WXGLHQ]XUVXEMHNWLYHQXQG
REMHNWLYHQ5HOHYDQ]YRQSV\FKRORJLVFKHQ)DNWRUHQEHLGHU.UHEVHQWVWHKXQJ
>3HUVRQDOLW\DQGFDQFHU$VWXG\RIWKHVXEMHFWLYHDQGREMHFWLYHUHOHYDQF\
RISV\FKRORJLFDOIDFWRUVIRUWKHRQVHWRIFDQFHU@'RFWRUDOWKHVLV'VVHOGRUI
3DEVW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
205
6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV&%HQ]'9DQ'DPPH')HOGW.$PHODQJ0
hEHU=ZLHVSlOWLJH(UIDKUXQJHQPLW)UDJHE|JHQ]XP.RKlUHQ]VLQQVHQVX
$QWRQRYVN\>&RQIOLFWLQJUHVXOWVIURPTXHVWLRQQDLUHVPHDVXULQJ$QWRQRYVN\¶V
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH@'LDJQRVWLFD
6FKRO]2%6FKPHU]PHVVXQJ>3DLQPHDVXUHPHQW@,Q+'%DVOHU&
)UDQ]%.URHQHU+HUZLJ+35HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH
6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
6FKRO]2%*HUEHU:'.ODVVLILNDWLRQFKURQLVFKHU6FKPHU]HQ
>&ODVVLILFDWLRQRIFKURQLFSDLQ@,Q+'%DVOHU&)UDQ]%.URHQHU+HUZLJ
+35HKILVFK+6HHPDQQ(GV3V\FKRORJLVFKH6FKPHU]WKHUDSLH
+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
6FKZDU]HU53V\FKRORJLHGHV*HVXQGKHLWVYHUKDOWHQV>7KH3V\FKRORJ\RI
+HDOWK%HKDYLRU@*|WWLQJHQ+RJUHIH9HUODJ
6FKZHQNPH]JHU3*HVXQGKHLWVSV\FKRORJLH'LHSHUV|QOLFKNHLWV
SV\FKRORJLVFKH3HUVSHNWLY>+HDOWKSV\FKRORJ\7KHSHUVRQDOLW\SHUVSHFWLYH@
,Q36FKZHQNPH]JHU/56FKPLGW/HKUEXFKGHU
*HVXQGKHLWVSV\FKRORJLH6WXWWJDUW(QNH
6FKZHQNPH]JHU36FKPLGW/5/HKUEXFKGHU*HVXQGKHLWVSV\FKRORJLH
>+HDOWK3V\FKRORJ\@6WXWWJDUW(QNH
6H\OH+6WUHVV0RQWUHDO$FWD0HGLFDO3XEOLVKHU
6PHGOH\-(JJHU3&RRSHU&&RJJRQ'0DQXDOKDQGOLQJDFWLYLWLHV
DQGULVNRIORZEDFNSDLQLQQXUVHV2FFXSDWLRQDODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO0HGLFLQH
6SLHOEHUJHU&'6WDWH7UDLW$QJHU([SUHVVLRQ,QYHQWRU\3URIHVVLRQDO
0DQXDO2GHVVD)/3V\FKRORJLFDO$VVHVVPHQW5HVRXUFHV
6SLW]HU5/:LOOLDPV-%*LEERQ0)LUVW0%6WUXFWXUHG&OLQLFDO
,QWHUYLHZIRU'60,,,51HZ<RUN$FDGHPLF3UHVV
6WHUQEDFK5$3DLQSDWLHQWV7UDLWVDQGWUHDWPHQW1HZ<RUN$FDGHPLF
3UHVV
6ZHQVRQ5'LIIHUHQWLDO'LDJQRVLV$5HDVRQDEOH&OLQLFDO$SSURDFK/RZHU
%DFN3DLQ
7D\ORU6(+HDOWK3V\FKRORJ\WK(GLWLRQ%RVWRQ0F*UDZ+LOO
7D\ORU6(+HLJHVRQ965HHG*06NRNDQ/$6HOIJHQHUDWHGIHHOLQJV
RIFRQWURODQGDGMXVWPHQWWRSK\VLFDOLOOQHVV-RXUQDORI6RFLDO,VVXHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
206
7KRPSVRQ6&6REROHZ6KXELQ$*DOEUDLWK0(6FKZQDNRYVN\/&UX]HQ
'0DLQWDLQLQJSHUFHSWLRQVRIFRQWURO)LQGLQJSHUFHLYHGFRQWUROLQ
ORZFRQWUROFLUFXPVWDQFHV-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDOLW\DQG6RFLDO3V\FKRORJ\
7RVKLPD07.DSODQ505LHV$/6HOIHIILFDF\H[SHFWDWLRQVLQFKURQLF
REVWUXFWLYHSXOPRQDU\GLVHDVHUHKDELOLWDWLRQ,Q56FKZDU]HU(G6HOI
HIILFDF\7KRXJKWFRQWURORIDFWLRQ/RQGRQ+HPLVSKHUH
7ULHI30&DUQLNH&/0'UXGJH2&KURQLFSDLQDQGGHSUHVVLRQ,V
VRFLDOVXSSRUWUHOHYDQW"3V\FKRORJLFDO5HSRUWV
7XUN'&%LRSV\FKRVRFLDOSHUVSHFWLYHRQFKURQLFSDLQ,Q5-*DWFKHODQG
'&7XUN(GV3V\FKRORJLFDODSSURDFKHVWRSDLQPDQDJHPHQW$
SUDFWLWLRQHU¶VKDQGERRN1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG3UHVV
7XUN'&)ORU+&KURQLF3DLQ$%LREHKDYLRUDO3HUVSHFWLYH,Q5-
*DWFKHODQG'&7XUN(GV3V\FKRVRFLDO)DFWRUVLQ3DLQ&ULWLFDO
3HUVSHFWLYHV1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG3UHVV
7XUN'&.HUQV5'5RVHQEHUJ5(IIHFWVRIPDULWDOLQWHUDFWLRQRQ
FKURQLFSDLQDQGGLVDELOLW\([DPLQLQJWKHGRZQVLGHRIVRFLDOVXSSRUW
5HKDELOLWDWLRQ3V\FKRORJ\
7XUN'&2NLIXML$3HUFHSWLRQRIWUDXPDWLFRQVHWFRPSHQVDWLRQVWDWXV
DQGSK\VLFDOILQGLQJV,PSDFWRQSDLQVHYHULW\HPRWLRQDOGLVWUHVVDQG
GLVDELOLW\RIFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV-RXUQDORI%HKDYLRUDO0HGLFLQH
7XUN'&5XG\7(7KHUREXVWQHVVRIDQHPSLULFDOO\GHULYHGWD[RQRP\
RIFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV3DLQ
7XUN'&5XG\7(&RJQLWLYHIDFWRUVDQGSHUVLVWHQWSDLQ$JOLPSVHLQWR
3DQGRUD¶VER[&RJQLWLYH7KHUDS\DQG5HVHDUFK
7XUQTXLVW'&+DUYH\-+$QGHUVHQ%/$WWULEXWLRQVDQGDGMXVWPHQWWR
OLIHWKUHDWHQLQJLOOQHVV%ULWLVK-RXUQDORI&OLQLFDO3V\FKRORJ\
8QUXK$0*HQGHUYDULDWLRQVLQFOLQLFDOSDLQH[SHULHQFH3DLQ
9HUUHV5=XU.RQWH[WDEKlQJLJNHLWVXEMHNWLYHU.UDQNKHLWVWKHRULHQ
>6XEMHFWLYH7KHRULHVDERXWLOOQHVVGHSHQGLQJXSRQFRQWH[W@,Q&%LVFKRII
+=HQ](GV3DWLHQWHQNRQ]HSWHYRQ.|USHUXQG.UDQNKHLW%HUQ+XEHU
9RQ.RUII06WXG\LQJWKHQDWXUDOKLVWRU\RIEDFNSDLQ6SLQH
666
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
207
:DGGHOO*9ROYRDZDUGLQFOLQLFDOVFLHQFHV$QHZFOLQLFDOPRGHOIRUWKH
WUHDWPHQWRIORZEDFNSDLQ6SLQH
:DGGHOO*1HZWRQ0+HQGHUVRQ,6RPHUYLOOH'0DLQ&$)HDU
$YRLGDQFH%HOLHIV4XHVWLRQQDLUH)$%4DQGWKHUROHRIIHDUDYRLGDQFHEHOLHIV
LQFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQDQGGLVDELOLW\3DLQ
:DGH-%'RXJKHUW\/0+DUW53&RRN'%3DWWHUQVRIQRUPDO
SHUVRQDOLW\VWUXFWXUHDPRQJFKURQLFSDLQSDWLHQWV3DLQ
:DULQJ(0:HLV]*0%DLOH\6,3UHGLFWLYHIDFWRUVLQWKHWUHDWPHQW
RIORZEDFNSDLQE\VXUJLFDOLQWHUYHQWLRQ,Q--%RQLFD'$OEHIHVVDUG
(GV$GYDQFHVLQSDLQUHVHDUFKDQGWKHUDS\9RO1HZ<RUN5DYHQ
3UHVV
:HLFNJHQDQW$/6ODWHU0$3DWWHUVRQ7/$WNLQVRQ-+DPSWRQHWDO
&RSLQJDFWLYLWLHVLQFKURQLFORZEDFNSDLQ5HODWLRQVKLSZLWKGHSUHVVLRQ3DLQ
:HLVEHUJ-1.HHIH)-3HUVRQDOLW\,QGLYLGXDO'LIIHUHQFHVDQG
3V\FKRSDWKRORJ\LQ&KURQLF3DLQ,Q5-*DWFKHODQG'&7XUN(GV
3V\FKRVRFLDO)DFWRUVLQ3DLQ&ULWLFDO3HUVSHFWLYHV1HZ<RUN*XLOIRUG
3UHVV
:HLVEHUJ-1.HHIH)-3HUVRQDOLW\GLVRUGHUVLQWKHFKURQLFSDLQ
SRSXODWLRQ%DVLFFRQFHSWVHPSLULFDOILQGLQJVDQGFOLQLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQV3DLQ
)RUXP
:HLVHO67VRXUPDV1)HIIHU1HWDO$VWXG\RIFRPSXWHUDVVLVWHG
WRPRJUDSK\WKHLQFLGHQFHRISRVLWLYH&7VFDQVLQDQDV\PSWRPDWLFJURXSRI
SDWLHQWV6SLQH
:LOOLV:'-U+\SHUDOJHVLDDQGDOORG\QLD1HZ<RUN5DYHQ3UHVV
:LOOLV:'-U:HVWOXQG.11HXURDQDWRP\RIWKHSDLQV\VWHPDQGRI
WKHSDWKZD\VWKDWPRGXODWHSDLQ-RXUQDORI&OLQLFDO1HXURSK\VLRORJ\
:LOWVH//5RFFKLR3'3UHRSHUDWLYHSV\FKRORJLFDOWHVWVDVSUHGLFWRUVRI
VXFFHVVRIFKHPRQXFOHRO\VLVLQWKHWUHDWPHQWRIORZEDFNV\QGURPH-RXUQDO
RI%RQHDQG-RLQW6XUJHU\$
;XDQ-.LUFKGRHUIHU/-%R\HU-*1RUZRRG*-(IIHFWVRI
FRPRUELGLW\RQKHDOWKUHODWHGTXDOLW\RIOLIHVFRUHVDQDQDO\VLVRIFOLQLFDOWULDO
GDWD&OLQLFDO7KHUDS\$EVWUDFWIURP3XE0HG1XPEHU
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
208
=DW]LFN')'LPVGDOH-(&XOWXUDOYDULDWLRQVLQUHVSRQVHWRSDLQIXO
VWLPXOL3V\FKRVRPDWLF0HGLFLQH
=HUVVHQ'YRQ'LH3DUDQRLG'HSUHVVLYLWlWV6NDOD>7KHSDUDQRLG
GHSUHVVLRQVFDOH@:HLQKHLP%HOW]
=LOOPDQ'GH:LHG0.LQJ-DEORQVNL&-HQ]RZVN\6'UDPDLQGXFHG
DIIHFWDQGSDLQVHQVLWLYLW\3V\FKRVRPDWLF0HGLFLQH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
$33(1',;
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW'LVHDVH2QVHW
,WHP 7H[W
'LVVDWLVIDFWLRQZLWKWKHZRUNVLWXDWLRQ
&RQVWDQWO\RYHUWD[HGFRQVWDQWVWUHVV
'LVDSSRLQWPHQWRYHUXQDWWDLQDEOHOLIHJRDOV
&RQVWDQWO\UHFXUULQJIDPLO\SUREOHPV
5HFXUULQJDQ[LHWLHVDERXWWKHIXWXUH
+RSHOHVVQHVVDQGUHVLJQDWLRQ
7LPHSUHVVXUHDQGORQJWHUPVWUHVV
/RVVRIDORYHGRQHWKURXJKGHDWKRUGLYRUFH
)UHTXHQWUHSUHVVLRQRIUDJHDQGDQJHU
/RQHOLQHVVDQGLVRODWLRQ
&RQVWDQWGHQLDORIRQH¶VRZQQHHGV
)UHTXHQWUHSUHVVLRQRIVDGQHVVDQGGHVSRQGHQF\
+LJKVHOILPSRVHGH[SHFWDWLRQVIRUDFKLHYHPHQW
&RQWLQXRXVHPRWLRQDOLQVWDELOLW\DQGVHQVLWLYLW\
&RQVWDQWGHSUHVVHGPRRG
7UDXPDWLFOLIHHYHQWV
209
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
210
6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH62&
,WHP 7H[W ³,RIWHQGRQ¶WXQGHUVWDQGKRZ,JRWP\VHOILQWRWKHVHFLUFXPVWDQFHV´
³,RIWHQDVNP\VHOI:K\LVWKLVKDSSHQLQJWRPH"´
³,ORYHOLIH´
³,EHOLHYHWKDW,FDQDFFRPSOLVKDQ\WDVNVHWEHIRUHPH´
³0\OLIHLVFKDRWLFHYHU\GD\LQH[SOLFDEOHWKLQJVKDSSHQRU,ILQGP\VHOILQ
XQH[SHFWHGSUHGLFDPHQWV´
³:LWKUHVSHFWWRP\IXWXUH,¶PYHU\RSWLPLVWLF´
³,RIWHQGRQ¶WXQGHUVWDQGZK\WKLQJVWXUQRXWDVWKH\GR´
³,DPDQRSWLPLVWLFSHUVRQ´
´,QJHQHUDO,KDYHFRQILGHQFHLQWKHVNLOOVDQGWKHJRDOVRIRXUSROLWLFLDQV´
LQGLFDWHVQHJDWLYHO\SROHGLWHPV
,WHP7HVW&RUUHODWLRQVIRUWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOH6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV
1 PDOHDQGQ IHPDOHSDUWLFLSDQWV$QDVWHULVNLQGLFDWHVQHJDWLYHO\SROHG
LWHPV
,WHP1XPEHU
ULWPDOHV
ULWIHPDOHV
62&
62&
62&
62&
62&
62&
62&
62&
62&
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
211
'HSUHVVLRQ6FDOH
,WHP 7H[W ´,¶YHEHHQDQ[LRXVDQGMXPS\ODWHO\´
´,IHHO³GRZQ´DQGRXWRIHQHUJ\´
³,XQGHUVWDQGDORWOHVVZULWWHQWH[WWKDQ,XVHGWR´
´,ZRXOGFRQVLGHUNLOOLQJP\VHOI´
³,QRORQJHUKDYHDQ\GHHSUHODWLRQVKLSV´
³,IHHOOLNH,¶PDERXWWRIDOODSDUW´
³,¶PFRQVWDQWO\DQ[LRXVWKDW,¶OOVD\RUGRVRPHWKLQJZURQJ´
³,DPOHVVLQWHUHVWHGLQP\ORYHUHODWLRQVKLSVWKDQ,XVHGWREH´
³,RIWHQIHHOVLPSO\PLVHUDEOH´
´(YHQZKHQ,WU\,FDQ¶WWKLQNVWUDLJKW´
´,GRQ¶WKDYHDQ\HPRWLRQVDQ\PRUH´
,WHP7HVW&RUUHODWLRQVIRUWKH6HQVHRI&RKHUHQFH6FDOH6FKPLGW5DWKMHQV
1 PDOHDQGQ IHPDOHSDUWLFLSDQWV$QDVWHULVNLQGLFDWHVQHJDWLYHO\SROHG
LWHPV
,WHP1XPEHU
ULWPDOHV
ULWIHPDOHV
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
212
-RE6DWLVIDFWLRQ
,WHP 7H[W ³,¶PH[FLWHGWRJHWEDFNWRZRUNDIWHUYDFDWLRQV´
³,¶PFRQWHQWZLWKP\ZRUNVLWXDWLRQDQG,KRSHWKDWLWVWD\VWKDWZD\´
´,GRQ¶WKDYHPXFKFRQWURORYHUP\ZRUNVLWXDWLRQ´
´,¶PQRWHFVWDWLFDERXWP\MREEXWLWFRXOGEHZRUVH´
³,DOPRVWUHDG\WRTXLW0\ZRUNVLWXDWLRQLVQRORQJHUWROHUDEOH´
³,QJHQHUDOKRZFRQWHQWDUH\RXZLWK\RXUMRE"´
LQGLFDWHVQHJDWLYHO\SROHGLWHPV
([DJJHUDWHG3DLQ5HDFWLRQ
,WHP 7H[W 6.,1 ³,VWKHVNLQVHQVLWLYHLQWKHOXPEDUVSLQHDUHDRUGRHVWKHSDWLHQW
UHSRUWSDLQZKHQSUHVVLQJXSRQWKHKLSERQH6DFUXPRUXSSHUEDFN"´
35(66
³'RHVWKHSDWLHQWUHSRUWSDLQZKHQDSSO\LQJOLJKWSUHVVXUHWRWKHWRSRI
WKHKHDGZKHQVWDQGLQJXS"´
/,)7 ³'RHVWKHSDWLHQWUHSRUWPRUHSDLQZKHQOLIWLQJWKHOHJZLWKDQ
H[WHQGHGNQHHZKLOHVLWWLQJWKDQZKLOHO\LQJGRZQ"´
1(59(
³'RHVWKHSDWLHQWVKRZPRWRULFDQGVHQVRU\GHILFLWVWKDWDUHKDUGWR
DWWULEXWHWRRQHRUPRUHQHUYHURRWV"´
29(5
Ä'RHVWKHSDWLHQWWHQGWRH[DJJHUDWHWKHSDLQUHDFWLRQRURYHUUHDFW"´
/LVWRI'LDJQRVHV
*HQHWLF0DOIRUPDWLRQ
+HUQLDWHG'LVFZLWKRXWQHXUDOGDPDJH
+HUQLDWHG'LVFZLWKQHXUDOGDPDJH
'HJHQHUDWLRQ
3V\FKRVRPDWLF2ULJLQ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
9DU1DPHV
*URXS
&KURQLF
9DULDEOHGHILQLWLRQV EDFNSDLQ QREDFNSDLQ
SDLQH[SHULHQFHODVWLQJOHVVWKDQPRQWKV SDLQH[SHULHQFHODVWLQJPRQWKVDQGPRUH ,QWHQVLW\
QRSDLQOLWWOHSDLQPLQLPDOSDLQ LQWHQVHSDLQXQEHDUDEOHSDLQ ,QWHQVLW\
QRSDLQ±XQEHDUDEOHSDLQ $JH OHVVWKDQ ±
DQGROGHU
$JH 5DQJH
6H[ IHPDOH
PDOH
(GXFDWLRQ FRPSOHWHGÄDELWXU³KLJK QRÄDELWXU³ORZ
&RPRUE
SUHVHQWO\QRFRPRUELGLW\EXWEDFNSDLQ
SUHVHQWO\DWOHDVWRQHGLVHDVHDQGEDFNSDLQ
&RPRUS
QRFRPRUELGLW\LQWKHSDVWEXWEDFNSDLQ
DWOHDVWRQHFRPRUELGLW\LQWKHSDVWDQGEDFNSDLQ
&RPELQHG ORZORZ
KLJKKLJK
62& ORZ
KLJK
'HSUHVVLRQ ORZ
KLJK
-RE ORZ
6DWLVIDFWLRQ KLJK
6PRNLQJ
H[VPRNHU
VPRNHU
QRQVPRNHU
3K\VLFDO
KRXUVZHHNO\
([HUFLVH
! KRXUVZHHNO\
213
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
214
6LJQLILFDQW&KL6TXDUH7HVWVRI,QGHSHQGHQFH
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS7RJHWKHU
$JHDQG(GXFDWLRQ$JHDQGHGXFDWLRQVKRZHGDVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQ&KL6TXDUH
S,QWKHKLJKHGXFDWLRQJURXSRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVDUHXQGHU
\HDUVRIDJHDUHEHWZHHQDQG\HDUVRIDJHDQGDUHRYHU
\HDUV,QWKHORZHGXFDWLRQJURXSDUHXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHDUH
EHWZHHQDQGDQGDUHRYHU\HDUV6WDWHPHQW+LJKHUHGXFDWHG
SDUWLFLSDQWVWHQGWREH\RXQJHUXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHWKHPDMRULW\RIWKHORZ
HGXFDWHGSDUWLFLSDQWVDUHRYHU\HDUVRIDJH
7DEOH$&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH$JHDQG(GXFDWLRQ
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXSWRJHWKHU
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
/RZ(GXFDWLRQ
+LJK(GXFDWLRQ
7RWDO
!
7RWDO $JHDQG6PRNLQJ$VLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQZDVIRXQGEHWZHHQDJHDQGVPRNLQJ
&KL6TXDUH SRIWKHVPRNHUVDUHXQGHU\HDUVRIDJH
DUHEHWZHHQDQG\HDUVDQGDUHRYHU)RUH[VPRNHUVDUH
XQGHU\HDUVDUHEHWZHHQWKHDJHVRIDQGDQGWKHPDMRULW\RIH[
VPRNHUVWHQGWREHRYHU\HDUVRIDJH$VLPLODUSDWWHUQZDVIRXQGIRUQRQ
VPRNHUVDUHXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHDUHEHWZHHQWKHDJHVRIDQG
\HDUVDQGDUHRYHU\HDUV6WDWHPHQW6PRNHUVWHQGWREH\RXQJHUXQGHU
\HDUVRIDJHH[VPRNHUVDQGQRQVPRNHUVWHQGWREHRYHU\HDUVRIDJH
7DEOH$&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH$JHDQG6PRNLQJ
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXSWRJHWKHU
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
([6PRNHU 6PRNHU
1RQ6PRNHU 7RWDO
!
7RWDO %LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
215
*HQGHUDQG6PRNLQJ&KL6TXDUHDQDO\VLVUHYHDOHGDVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQ
JHQGHUDQGVPRNLQJ&KL6TXDUH SRIWKHIHPDOHVDUH
VPRNHUVFRPSDUHGWRRIWKHPDOHSDUWLFLSDQWVRIWKHZRPHQDUHH[
VPRNHUVZKLOHRIWKHPHQKDYHTXLWVPRNLQJRIWKHZRPHQUHSRUWQHYHU
VPRNHGUHODWLYHWRRIWKHPHQ6WDWHPHQW:RPHQWHQGWREHVPRNHUVRUQRQ
VPRNHUVPHQWHQGWRKDYHTXLWVPRNLQJ
7DEOH$&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH*HQGHUDQG6PRNLQJ
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXSWRJHWKHU
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
([6PRNHU 6PRNHU
1RQ6PRNHU 7RWDO
)HPDOHV
0DOHV 7RWDO (GXFDWLRQDQG6PRNLQJ(GXFDWLRQDQGVPRNLQJDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\UHODWHG&KL6TXDUH
S)LIW\IRXUSHUFHQWRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKDKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ
VPRNH,QWKHKLJKHGXFDWLRQJURXSDUHH[VPRNHUVDUHQRQVPRNHUV
)RUSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKDORZHUHGXFDWLRQVPRNHDUHH[VPRNHUVDQG
DUHQRQVPRNHUV6WDWHPHQW$ODUJHUSHUFHQWDJHRISDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKDKLJKHU
HGXFDWLRQVPRNH
7DEOH$&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH(GXFDWLRQDQG6PRNLQJ
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXSWRJHWKHU
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
([6PRNHU 6PRNHU
1RQ6PRNHU 7RWDO
/RZ(GXFDWLRQ
+LJK(GXFDWLRQ
7RWDO %LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
216
6LJQLILFDQW&KL6TXDUH7HVWVRI,QGHSHQGHQFH
%DFN3DLQ*URXSDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS6HSDUDWH
$JHDQG(GXFDWLRQ%DFN3DLQ*URXS$QDO\VLVUHYHDOHGDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQDJHDQGHGXFDWLRQLQWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS&KL6TXDUH S
)LIW\IRXUSHUFHQWRIWKRVHSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKDKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQDUHXQGHU
\HDUVRIDJHDUHEHWZHHQDQG\HDUVRIDJHDQGDUHRYHU\HDUV
,QWKHORZHGXFDWLRQJURXSDUHXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHDUHEHWZHHQ
DQG\HDUVDQGDUHRYHU\HDUV6WDWHPHQW3DUWLFLSDQWVZLWKDKLJKHU
HGXFDWLRQWHQGWREH\RXQJHUXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHSDUWLFLSDQWVIURPWKHORZ
HGXFDWLRQJURXSWHQGWREHROGHURYHU\HDUVRIDJH,QWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS
DJHDQGHGXFDWLRQVKRZHGQRVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQ
7DEOH$&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH$JHDQG(GXFDWLRQ
%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
/RZ(GXFDWLRQ
+LJK(GXFDWLRQ
7RWDO
!
7RWDO $JHDQG6PRNLQJ%DFN3DLQ*URXS$QDO\VLVUHYHDOHGDVLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQDJHDQGVPRNLQJLQWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS&KL6TXDUH S
RIWKHVPRNHUVDUHXQGHU\HDUVRIDJHDUHEHWZHHQDQG\HDUV
DQGDUHRYHU\HDUVRIDJH)RUH[VPRNHUVDUHXQGHU\HDUV
DUHEHWZHHQDQG\HDUVDQGDUHRYHU\HDUVRIDJH)RUQRQVPRNHUV
DUHXQGHUDUHEHWZHHQDQGDQGDUHRYHU\HDUVRIDJH
6WDWHPHQW%DFNSDLQSDWLHQWVZKRVPRNHWHQGWREH\RXQJHUWKDQH[VPRNHUVRU
QRQVPRNHUV
7DEOH$&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH$JHDQG6PRNLQJ
%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
([6PRNHU 6PRNHU
1RQ6PRNHU 7RWDO
!
7RWDO %LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
217
$JHDQG6PRNLQJ1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS6LJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVZHUHDOVRIRXQGIRU
WKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS&KL6TXDUH S7KHVDPHWUHQGVFDQEH
IRXQGDVGHVFULEHGDERYHLHVPRNHUVWHQGWREH\RXQJHUXQGHU\HDUVRIDJH
ZKLOHH[VPRNHUVDQGQRQVPRNHUVWHQGWREHVOLJKWO\ROGHURYHU\HDUVRIDJH
3OHDVHUHIHUWRWKHSHUFHQWDJHVDQGIUHTXHQFLHVLQWKHWDEOH
7DEOH$&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH$JHDQG6PRNLQJ
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
([6PRNHU 6PRNHU
1RQ6PRNHU 7RWDO
!
7RWDO *HQGHUDQG6PRNLQJ%DFN3DLQ*URXS$&KL6TXDUHWHVWUHYHDOHGDVLJQLILFDQW
UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQJHQGHUDQGVPRNLQJLQWKHEDFNSDLQJURXS&KL6TXDUH SRIWKHVPRNHUVDUHIHPDOHFRPSDUHGWRRIWKHPDOHV,Q
WKHH[VPRNHUJURXSDUHIHPDOHZKLOHDUHPDOH$VWURQJWUHQGZDV
IRXQGLQWKHQRQVPRNHUJURXSDUHZRPHQUHODWLYHWRPHQ1RVLJQLILFDQW
DVVRFLDWLRQVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQJHQGHUDQGVPRNLQJLQWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS
7DEOH$&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH*HQGHUDQG6PRNLQJ
%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
([6PRNHU 6PRNHU
1RQ6PRNHU 7RWDO
)HPDOHV
0DOHV 7RWDO (GXFDWLRQDQG6PRNLQJ1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS$VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ
HGXFDWLRQDQGVPRNLQJZDVIRXQGLQWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS&KL6TXDUH S
,QWKHKLJKHGXFDWLRQJURXSDUHVPRNHUVDUHH[VPRNHUVDQG
DUHQRQVPRNHUV)RUWKRVHSDUWLFLSDQWVUHFHLYLQJDORZHUHGXFDWLRQDUH
VPRNHUVDUHH[VPRNHUVDQGDUHQRQVPRNHUV6WDWHPHQW6PRNHUV
WHQGHGWRUHFHLYHDKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQLQWKHQREDFNSDLQJURXS&KL6TXDUHWHVWV
UHYHDOHGQRVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQHGXFDWLRQDQGVPRNLQJLQWKHEDFNSDLQ
JURXS
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
7DEOH$&KL6TXDUH)UHTXHQF\7DEOH(GXFDWLRQDQG6PRNLQJ
1R%DFN3DLQ*URXS
)UHTXHQF\
&RO3FW
([6PRNHU 6PRNHU
1RQ6PRNHU /RZ(GXFDWLRQ
+LJK(GXFDWLRQ
7RWDO 218
7RWDO
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
219
7DEOH&RPRUELGLW\6FDOH$VVHVVHG'LVHDVHVDQG)UHTXHQFLHV
%DFN3DLQDQG1R%DFN3DLQ*URXSV
'LVHDVH
&DQFHU
+HDUWGLVHDVH
'LVHDVHVRIWKHEORRG
'LDEHWHV
7K\PXVG\VIXQFWLRQ
'LVHDVHVRIWKHOLYHU
3UHVHQW
$VWKPD
$UWKULWLV
'HSUHVVLRQ +HDUWEXUQ 8OFHUV
+LJKEORRGSUHVVXUH
'LJHVWLYHFRPSOLFDWLRQV
2WKHU 1RWH1 $OOHUJLHV
3DVW
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
&DXVDO$WWULEXWLRQV$ERXW'LVHDVH2QVHW
2QHZD\UHSHDWHGPHDVXUHV$129$3URF*/0UHSHDWHGPHDVXUHV
&ODVV/HYHO,QIRUPDWLRQ
&ODVV /HYHOV
9DOXHV
*URXS
5HSHDWHG0HDVXUHV/HYHO,QIRUPDWLRQ
'HSHQGHQW9DULDEOH
%DFN &DQFHU
+HDUW'LVHDVH
/HYHORI$WWULEXWLRQ 4XHVWLRQV
/HYHORI*URXS
9DULDEOH
1
0HDQ 6WG'HY
1
0HDQ 6WG'HY
$WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU $WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU $WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU $WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU $WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU $WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU $WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU $WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU $WWKHDUW 220
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
$WWEDFN /HYHORI*URXS
9DULDEOH
$WWFDQFHU $WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU
$WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU
$WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU
$WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU
$WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU
$WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU
$WWKHDUW $WWEDFN $WWFDQFHU
$WWKHDUW 221
1
0HDQ 6WG'HY
1
0HDQ 6WG'HY
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
222
3V\FKRORJLVFKHV,QVWLWXWGHU8QLYHUVLWlW+HLGHOEHUJ
Forschungsgruppe Gesundheit
5h&.(16&+0(5=(1
Liebe Patientin, lieber Patient,
heute suchen Sie Ihren Orthopäden wegen Rückenschmerzen auf. Viele Menschen
leiden unter Rückenschmerzen. Allerdings geht jeder Mensch unterschiedlich mit
Schmerzen um. Daher bitten wir Sie, jetzt in der Wartezeit einen Fragebogen
auszufüllen. Dieser Fragebogen soll uns helfen, Ihre Beschwerden besser zu
verstehen. So können wir für Sie und andere Menschen, die unter ähnlichen
Beschwerden leiden, langfristig eine erfolgreiche Therapie entwickeln.
Hinweise zur Bearbeitung des Fragebogens:
1. Es gibt keine richtigen oder falschen Antworten, sondern nur Ihre persönliche
Meinung.
2. Wenn keine Antwort vollständig für Sie zutrifft, antworten Sie dann bitte so, wie
es am ehesten für Sie paßt.
3. Bitte lassen Sie keine Frage aus.
Ihre Antworten haben keinen Einfluß auf Ihre Behandlung und Ihre Angaben werden
vertraulich behandelt.
Vielen Dank für Ihre Mithilfe!
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
223
$ .UDQNKHLWVJHVFKLFKWH5FNHQVFKPHU]HQ
1. Haben Sie akute
Rückenschmerzen zur Zeit?
Wenn ja, wie lange dauert
diese aktuelle akute Phase
schon?
2. Wann sind Ihre
Rückenschmerzen zum allererstenmal aufgetreten?
5
6
in den letzten vor mehr als
10 Jahren
10 Jahren
3
3-6 Monate
1
weniger als
eine Woche
2
2-11 Wochen
1
in der letzten
Woche
4
2
3
in dem letzten in diesem Jahr in den letzten
halbes Jahr
5 Jahren
4
ein halbes
Jahr oder
mehr
3. Wie stark waren Ihre Rückenschmerzen durchschnittlich in der letzten Woche?
(Zutreffendes bitte ankreuzen)
0
1
keine
Schmerzen
2
3
4
unerträgliche
Schmerzen
4. Haben sich Ihre Rückenschmerzen im Laufe der Zeit verändert?
(Mehrere Anworten möglich)
1 2 3
4 5 Nein.
Ja, sie sind
Ja, sie sind
Ja, sie sind
Ja, sie sind
stärker
häufiger
schwächer
seltener
geworden.
geworden.
geworden.
geworden.
:DUHQ6LHZHJHQGHUDNWXHOOHQ5FNHQVFKPHU]HQEHUHLWVLQ
%HKDQGOXQJ"
1 2 3 5 4 Nein.
Ja, bei einer
Ja, bei einer
Ja, bei
Ja, bei
Hausärztin /
Fachärztin /
einer/einem
einer/einem
einem Hausarzt. einem Facharzt KrankenMasseurIn.
gymnastIn.
(Orthopäden).
6. Wie oft haben Sie wegen der Schmerzen bereits eine Ärztin / einen Arzt
aufgesucht?
1 2 3 4 Ein Mal.
2-3 Mal.
4-5 Mal.
6 Mal und mehr.
7. Strahlen Ihre aktuellen Rückenschmerzen in das Bein aus?
1 2 3 Nein.
Ja, in den
Ja, bis in den
Oberschenkel
Unterschenkel
oder bis zum
oder bis zum
Knie.
Fuß.
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
224
8. Sind Sie durch Ihre aktuellen Rückenschmerzen in Ihrem täglichen Leben
eingeschränkt?
3 2 4 1 Nein.
Ja, aber nur
Ja, ich bin stark Ja, ich bin sehr
wenig.
eingeschränkt. stark eingeschränkt.
9. In welcher Aktivität des täglichen Lebens sind Sie am meisten eingeschränkt?
_____________________________________
10. Nehmen Sie wegen Ihrer Rückenschmerzen Schmerzmittel?
1 2 3 4 Nein.
Ja, täglich.
Ja, mehrmals in Ja, mehrmals
im Monat.
der Woche.
11. Hatten Sie früher schon Rückenschmerzen? Wenn nein, beantworten Sie weiter
Frage 12. Wenn ja, wie sind Sie damals behandelt worden? (Mehrere Antworten
möglich)
3 1 2 Y Medikamente.
KrankenMassage.
Sport/
gymnastik.
Bewegung.
6 Entspannung/
Bettruhe.
7 Kur.
8 Krankschreibung.
9 Operation.
10
andere
Behandlungen:
12. Was hilft Ihnen, die Rückenschmerzen zu lindern? (Mehrere Antworten möglich)
3 5 2 1 Y Medikamente.
KrankenMassage.
Spritzen.
Sport/
gymnastik.
Bewegung.
6 Entspannung.
7 Einreiben.
8 Wärme- oder
Kältebehandlung.
9 10
Keine Linderung anderes:
möglich.
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
225
13. Worauf sind Ihre Rückenschmerzen Ihrer Meinung nach zurückzuführen?
(Mehrere Antworten möglich)
2 1 3 5 Y Körperliche
Körperliche
Unfallfolgen.
Einseitige
OperationsErkrankung
Überlastung.
Belastung (z.B.
folge.
(z.B. der
langes Sitzen,
Wirbelsäule
Stehen, etc.).
oder der
Bandscheibe).
6 Streß am
Arbeitsplatz.
7 Private Sorgen.
8 Sportfolgen.
9 anderes:
:LHVWDUNLVW±,KUHU0HLQXQJQDFK±,KU5FNHQGXUFK,KUHEHUXIOLFKH7lWLJNHLW
EHODVWHW"
%LWWHPDFKHQ6LHHQWVSUHFKHQG,KUHUEHUXIOLFKHQ5FNHQEHODVWXQJHLQ.UHX]DXIGHU
6NDOD
0
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
überhaupt
extrem
nicht
mittel
stark
15. Arbeiten Sie am Computer? Wenn ja, wieviel Stunden am Tag?
1 2 Nein.
Ja, und zwar
_____ Stunden
am Tag.
:LHVWDUNEHODVWHQ6LH±,KUHU0HLQXQJQDFK±,KUHQ5FNHQLP$OOWDJVOHEHQ
]%GXUFK*DUWHQDUEHLW+DXVDUEHLW.OHLQNLQGSIOHJHXVZ"
0
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
überhaupt
extrem
nicht
mittel
stark
/HLGHQ6LHDXIJUXQG,KUHU5FNHQVFKPHU]HQXQWHUHLQHUGHUIROJHQGHQ
%HVFKZHUGHQ"0HKUHUH$QZRUWHQP|JOLFK
1 2 3 Y Appetitmangel. Abnahme oder Allgemeine
Schlafprobleme.
Verlust
Reizbarkeit.
sexueller
Bedürfnisse.
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
226
:DUHQ6LHMHPDOVZHJHQ,KUHU5FNHQVFKPHU]HQNUDQNJHVFKULHEHQ"
1 2 Nein.
Ja.
6LQG6LH]XU=HLWZHJHQ,KUHU5FNHQVFKPHU]HQNUDQNJHVFKULHEHQ"
1 2 Nein.
Ja.
:HQQQHLQEHDQWZRUWHQ6LHZHLWHU)UDJH
:HQQMDZLHODQJHZDUHQVLQG6LHLQVJHVDPWLPOHW]WHQ-DKUZHJHQ
5FNHQVFKPHU]HQNUDQNJHVFKULHEHQ"
1
3
5 2
4 mehr als ein
Ich werde / Ich
eine Woche
2-11 Wochen 3-6 Monate
halbes Jahr
bin berenntet.
:DVKDW,KUHbU]WLQ,KU$U]W,KQHQEHUGLH'LDJQRVHPLWJHWHLOW"
_____________________________________________.
%%HJOHLWHUNUDQNXQJHQ
1. Haben Sie – außer Rückenschmerzen – auch andere Schmerzen? Wenn nein,
beantworten Sie weiter Frage 2.
1 2 3 5 Y Kopfschmerzen. Schmerzen
Magenandere
Gelenkinfolge einer
schmerzen.
Schmerzen.
schmerzen.
KrebsWelche?
erkrankung.
2. Haben Sie – außer Rückenbeschwerden – auch andere Beschwerden oder
Krankheiten? Wenn nein, beantworten Sie weiter Frage 3.
2 1 3 4 5 KrebsHerzerkrankung Bluterkrankung. Diabetes.
Schildrüsenerkrankung.
erkrankung.
6 Lebererkrankung.
7 Allergien.
8 Asthma.
9 Arthritis /
Arthrose.
11
Sodbrennen.
12
Magengeschwür.
13
Bluthochdruck.
15
14
Magen- / Darm- Andere:
beschwerden.
_____________
10
Depression.
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
227
3. Hatten Sie – außer Rückenbeschwerden – auch andere Beschwerden oder
Krankheiten? Wenn nein, beantworten Sie weiter Frage C1.
1 2 3 4 5 KrebsHerzerkrankung Bluterkrankung. Diabetes.
Schildrüsenerkrankung.
erkrankung.
6 Lebererkrankung.
7 Allergien.
8 Asthma.
9 Arthritis /
Arthrose.
10
Depression.
11
Sodbrennen.
12
Magengeschwür.
13
Bluthochdruck.
14
15
Magen- / Darm- Andere:
beschwerden.
_____________
&$OOJHPHLQH*HVXQGKHLW
1. Wie alt sind Sie? _________Jahre.
2. Welches Geschlecht haben Sie?
1 2 Weiblich.
Männlich.
3. Wieviel wiegen Sie?_____________ kg.
4. Wie groß sind Sie?_____________ cm.
5. Treiben Sie regelmäßig Sport? Wenn nein, beantworten Sie weiter Frage 8.
1 2 Nein.
Ja.
6. Wieviel Stunden pro Woche treiben Sie Sport?
__________ Stunden / Woche.
7. Wenn ja, welche Sportart(en)?
8. Wie ernähren Sie sich? (Mehrere Anworten möglich)
1 2 3 Y Keine
Vegetarisch.
Vollwertig.
Fettarm.
besondere Diät.
6 7 Schlankheitskur Trennkost.
8 Anderes:
_____________
5 Wenig
Milchprodukte.
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
228
9. Ergänzen Sie Ihre Ernährung mit der Einnahme von Vitaminen- und/oder
Mineralientabletten?
1 2 Nein.
-D
10. Wie würden Sie Ihren Gesundheitszustand insgesamt einschätzen?
(Bitte machen sie entsprechend Ihres Gesundheitszustandes ein Kreuz auf der
Skala)
0
1
sehr
schlecht
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
mittel
10
sehr
gut
11. Haben Sie früher geraucht oder rauchen Sie zur Zeit?
1 2 3 Habe früher
Rauche zur
Habe noch nie
geraucht,
Zeit.
geraucht.
rauche jetzt
nicht mehr.
12. Wenn ja, wieviel rauchen Sie durchschnittlich?
2 3 1 1-10
11-20
mehr als 20
Zigaretten am
Zigaretten am
Zigaretten am
Tag.
Tag.
Tag.
4 ich rauche
Zigarren,
Zigarillos, oder
Pfeifen.
Anzahl pro Tag:
________
13. Wieviel Bier, Wein oder andere alkoholischen Getränken nehmen Sie
durchschnittlich in einer Woche zu sich?
1 2 3 4 5 6x ein halbes
7x ein halbes
6x ein Glas
7x ein Glas
6x ein Glas
Liter Bier oder
Liter Bier, oder Wein oder Sekt Wein oder Sekt Spirituosen
weniger.
mehr.
(0,2dl), oder
(0,2L), oder
(0,2L), oder
mehr.
weniger.
mehr.
7 6 8 7x ein Glas
Ich trinke
Ich trinke keinen
Spirituosen
gelegentlich
Alkohol.
(0,2dl), oder
Alkohol (1-2 Mal
mehr.
im Monat).
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
229
D. Es gibt unterschiedliche Meinungen über mögliche Zusammenhänge zwischen
psychischen Faktoren und der Entstehung von bestimmten Krankheiten. Im
folgenden haben wir einige solcher Faktoren aufgelistet. Bitte kreuzen Sie zu jedem
Punkt an, ob bzw. in welchem Ausmaß er Ihrer Meinung nach zur Entstehung von
Rückenschmerzen, Krebs- und/oder Herzkrankheiten beiträgt. Die Zahlen
entsprechen folgenden Antwortmöglichkeiten:
-2
völlig
unzutreffend
-1
0
weder zutreffend noch
unzutreffend
+1
+2
völlig
zutreffend
Bei der Entstehung dieser Krankheiten spielen folgende Ursachen eine wichtige
Rolle:
5FNHQVFKPHU]HQ
8Q]XIULHGHQKHLWDP
$UEHLWVSODW] ±
'DXHUKDIWH
hEHUIRUGHUXQJ
±
(QWWlXVFKXQJHQEHU
EHVWLPPWHQLFKWHUUHLFKWH
/HEHQV=LHOH ±
$QGDXHUQGHIDPLOLlUH
3UREOHPH
±
,PPHUZLHGHUNHKUHQGH
=XNXQIWVbQJVWH
±
+RIIQXQJVORVLJNHLWXQG
5HVLJQDWLRQ ±
6WlQGLJHU6WUHXQG
=HLWGUXFN
±
9HUOXVWJHOLHEWHU3HUVRQHQ
GXUFK7RGRGHU7UHQQXQJ
±
+lXILJH8QWHUGUFNXQJYRQ
:XWXQGbUJHU
±
(LQVDPNHLWXQG
.RQWDNWDUPXW ±
6WlQGLJHV=XUFNVWHOOHQ
HLJHQHU%HGUIQLVVH
±
5FNHQVFKPHU]HQ
.UHEVHUNUDQNXQJ
+HU]HUNUDQNXQJ
.UHEVHUNUDQNXQJ
+HU]HUNUDQNXQJ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
+lXILJH8QWHUGUFNXQJ
YRQ*HIKOHQYRQ7UDXHU
XQG1LHGHUJHVFKODJHQ
KHLW +RKH/HLVWXQJV
DQIRUGHUXQJHQ
DQVLFKVHOEVW $QKDOWHQGHHPRWLRQDOH
8QDXVJHJOLFKHQKHLWXQG
(PSILQGOLFKNHLW
$QKDOWHQGHGHSUHVVLYH
9HUVWLPPXQJ 7UDXPDWLVFKH
(UOHEQLVVH
230
5FNHQVFKPHU]HQ
.UHEVHUNUDQNXQJ
+HU]HUNUDQNXQJ
±
±
±
±
±
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
231
E. Beantworten Sie jede Frage spontan nach dem Lesen. Dazu kreuzen Sie bitte
gemäß dem Grad ihrer Zustimmung oder Ablehnung jeweils eine der folgenden
Antwortmöglichkeiten an:
0
völlig
unzutreffend
1
2
weder zutreffend noch
unzutreffend
3
4
völlig
zutreffend
1. Oft stehe ich fassungslos den Ereignissen
in meinem Leben gegenüber.
0
1
2
3
4
2. Ich frage mich häufig: „Warum muß mir
das gerade passieren?“.
0
1
2
3
4
3. Ich liebe das Leben.
0
1
2
3
4
4. Ich glaube, daß ich fast jeder Lebensaufgabe
gewachsen bin.
0
1
2
3
4
5. Mein Leben ist ein einziges Chaos, da sich
jeden Tag Dinge oder Situationen ereignen,
die nicht vorhersehbar sind.
0
1
2
3
4
6. Was mein zukünftiges Leben angeht, bin ich
sehr optimistisch.
0
1
2
3
4
7. Ich kann oft nicht verstehen, warum die Dinge
sich so entwickeln und nicht anders.
0
1
2
3
4
8. Ich bin ein Optimist.
0
1
2
3
4
9.Im Großen und Ganzen habe ich großes
Vertrauen in die Fähigkeiten und Absichten
unserer Politiker.
0
1
2
3
4
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
232
F. Lesen Sie bitte die folgenden Sätze. Entscheiden Sie bei jeder Fragestellung, ob
sie für Sie zutrifft oder nicht. Kreuzen Sie eine der vier Ziffern entsprechend der
Stärke Ihrer Zustimmung bzw. Ablehnung an. Lassen Sie bitte keinen Satz aus.
0
1
2
3
trifft gar
nicht zu
trifft etwas
zu
trifft überwiegend zu
trifft ausgesprochen zu
1. In letzter Zeit bin ich sehr ängstlich und schreckhaft.
0
1
2
3
2. Ich fühle mich niedergeschlagen und schwermütig.
0
1
2
3
3. Ich kann das, was ich lese, nicht mehr so gut verstehen
wie früher.
0
1
2
3
4. Am liebsten würde ich mir das Leben nehmen.
0
1
2
3
5. Ich habe zu anderen Menschen keine innere Beziehung
mehr.
0
1
2
3
6. Ich fühle, daß ich nahe daran bin, zusammenzubrechen. 0
1
2
3
7. Ich habe ständig Angst, daß ich etwas Falsches sagen
oder tun könnte.
0
1
2
3
8. Ich bin jetzt viel weniger am Liebesleben interessiert.
0
1
2
3
9. Oft fühle ich mich einfach miserabel.
0
1
2
3
10. Ich komme beim besten Willen nicht mit den kleinsten
Gedankenschritten voran.
0
1
2
3
11. Ich habe keine Gefühle mehr.
0
1
2
3
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
233
G. Arbeit / Beschäftigung
Wie betrachten Sie ihre Arbeitsstelle? Kreuzen Sie eine der fünf Ziffern entsprechend
der Häufigkeit der folgenden Gedanken an. Lassen Sie bitte keinen Satz aus.
0
sehr
selten
1
selten
2
hin und
wieder
3
oft
4
sehr
oft
1. Ich freue mich nach einem Urlaub,
wieder arbeiten gehen zu können.
0
1
2
3
4
2. Ich bin mit meiner Arbeitssituation
zufrieden und ich hoffe, daß sie
so bleibt.
0
1
2
3
4
3. Als ArbeitnehmerIn habe ich
wenig Einfluß auf meine
Arbeitssituation.
0
1
2
3
4
4. Ich bin von meiner Arbeitsstelle nicht
begeistert, aber sie könnte schlimmer
sein.
0
1
2
3
4
5. Ich bin nahe dran, zu kündigen. Die
Arbeitssituation ist nicht mehr
erträglich.
0
1
2
3
4
6. Wie zufrieden Sie sind insgesamt mit Ihrer Arbeitsstelle?
0
1
sehr
unzufrieden
2
weder /
noch
3
4
sehr
zufrieden
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
234
H. Ausbildung
1. Welchen Schulabschluß haben Sie?
(Falls Sie mehrere Abschlüsse haben, nennen Sie bitte nur den höchsten.)
1 2 3 4 VolksschulMittlere Reife,
Fachhochschul- Abitur.
/HauptschulRealschulreife.
abschluß.
abschluß.
5 6 Ich habe keinen Anderer
Schulabschluß. Schulabschluß,
und zwar:
_____________
2. Haben Sie eine abgeschlossene Berufsausbildung oder Hochschulausbildung?
Wenn ja, welche?
(Falls Sie mehrere Ausbildungen abgeschlossen haben, geben Sie bitte die letzte an.)
1 Gewerbliche
oder landwirtschaftliche
Lehre.
2 Kaufmännische
oder sonstige
Lehre.
3 Berufsschule,
oder
Handelsschule.
6 Beamtenausbildung.
7 8 Fachhochschule Universität oder
oder
Hochschule.
Ingenieurschule
4 Schule des
Gesundheitswesens.
5 Fachschule,
z.B.
Technikerschule
9 Ich habe keinen
Ausbildungsabschluß.
10
Sonstiger
Ausbildungsabschluß, und
zwar:
_____________
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
235
Fragebogen für die Ärztin / den Arzt
1. Wird die oberflächliche Haut im Lumbalbereich als schmerzhaft empfunden oder
gibt der Patient/die Patientin Schmerzen bei Druck auf die Beckenkämme, das
Sakrum oder die BWS an?
1 2 Nein.
Ja.
2. Ist sanfter Druck auf den Kopf bei stehendem/stehender PatientIn schmerzhaft?
1 2 Nein.
Ja.
3. Ist die Schmerzangabe beim Anheben des gestreckten Beines im Sitzen heftiger
als im Liegen?
1 2 Nein.
Ja.
4. Gibt es motorische oder sensorische Defizite, die sich nicht einer oder mehreren
Wurzeln zuordnen lassen?
1 2 Nein.
Ja.
5. Zeigt die Patientin / der Patient eine übertriebene Reaktion auf den Schmerz (z.B.
durch Reiben der schmerzhaften Regionen, durch schmerzgeplagte Mimik, Stöhnen,
Ächzen oder Abstützen im Gehen)?
2 1 Nein.
Ja.
6. Wie würden Sie die Ursachen des Schmerzes klassifizieren?
1 4
2 3
Angeborene/
Bandscheiben- %DQGVFKHLEHQ 6SH]LILVFKH
erworbene
vorfall ohne
YRUIDOOPLW
(UNUDQNXQJGHU
Formfehler der radikuläre
UDGLNXOlUHU
:LUEHOVlXOH
Wirbelsäule.
Reizung.
5HL]XQJ
6
3RVWWUDXPDWL
,QIROJHHLQHV
VFKHU6FKPHU] EHQLJQHU
7XPRUV
11
'HJHQHUDWLYHU
=XVWDQG
12
3V\FKR
VRPDWLVFKH
*HQHVH

,QIROJHHLQHV
0DOLJQRP

8QVSH]LILVFKHU
5FNHQVFKPHU]
EHL6W|UXQJ
YRQ
BBBBBBBBBBB
9
10
5FNHQVFKPHU] 3RVWRSHUDWLYHU
VRQVWLJHU
6FKPHU]
*HQHVH
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
236
Psychologisches Institut der Universität Heidelberg
FRAGEBOGEN GESUNDHEIT
Liebe Patientin, lieber Patient,
heute suchen Sie Ihren Arzt auf. Unsere Forschungsgruppe beschäftigt sich mit den
Bedingungen von Krankheit und Gesundheit. Dieser Fragebogen soll helfen,
bestimmte Krankheiten besser zu verstehen. So können wir für Sie und andere
Menschen, die unter ähnlichen Beschwerden leiden, langfristig eine erfolgreiche
Therapie entwickeln.
Hinweise zur Bearbeitung des Fragebogens:
1. Es gibt keine richtigen oder falschen Antworten, sondern nur Ihre persönliche
Meinung.
2. Wenn keine Antwort vollständig für Sie zutrifft, antworten Sie dann bitte so, wie
es am
ehesten für Sie paßt.
3. Bitte lassen Sie keine Frage aus.
Ihre Antworten haben keinen Einfluß auf Ihre Behandlung und Ihre Angaben werden
vertraulich behandelt.
Vielen Dank für Ihre Mithilfe!
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
237
.UDQNKHLWVJHVFKLFKWH
1. Was ist der Grund Ihres heutigen Arztbesuches?
_______________________________________________________
2. Haben Sie Schmerzen? Wenn nein, beantworten Sie weiter Frage 5.
5 1 2 3 Y Kopfschmerzen. Schmerzen
Magenandere
Rückeninfolge einer
schmerzen.
Schmerzen.
schmerzen.
KrebsWelche?
erkrankung.
3. Haben Sie zur Zeit akute
Schmerzen? Wenn ja, wie
lange dauert diese aktuelle
Phase schon?
1
weniger als
eine Woche
2
2-11 Wochen
3
3-6 Monate
4
ein halbes
Jahr oder
mehr
4. Wie stark waren Ihre Schmerzen durchschnittlich in der letzten Woche?
(Zutreffendes bitte ankreuzen)
0
1
keine
Schmerzen
2
3
4
unerträgliche
Schmerzen
5. Haben Sie (in der Gegenwart) eine oder mehrere der folgenden Beschwerden
oder Krankheiten? Wenn nein, beantworten Sie weiter Frage 1 „Allgemeine
Gesundheit“.
1 2 3 4 5 KrebsHerzerkrankung Bluterkrankung. Diabetes.
Schildrüsenerkrankung.
erkrankung.
6 Lebererkrankung.
7 Allergien.
8 Asthma.
9 Arthritis /
Arthrose.
10
Depression.
11
Sodbrennen.
12
Magengeschwür.
13
Bluthochdruck.
14
15
Magen- / Darm- Andere:
beschwerden.
_____________
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
238
+DWWHQ6LHLQGHU9HUJDQJHQKHLWHLQHRGHUPHKUHUHGHUIROJHQGHQ%HVFKZHUGHQ
RGHU.UDQNKHLWHQ":HQQQHLQEHDQWZRUWHQ6LHZHLWHU)UDJHÄ$OOJHPHLQH
*HVXQGKHLW³
1 2 3 4 5 KrebsHerzerkrankung Bluterkrankung. Diabetes.
Schildrüsenerkrankung.
erkrankung.
6 Lebererkrankung.
7 Allergien.
8 Asthma.
9 Arthritis /
Arthrose.
11
Sodbrennen.
12
Magengeschwür.
13
Bluthochdruck.
14
15
Magen- / Darm- Andere:
beschwerden.
_____________
10
Depression.
$OOJHPHLQH*HVXQGKHLW
1. Wie alt sind Sie? _________Jahre.
2. Welches Geschlecht haben Sie?
2 1 Weiblich.
Männlich.
3. Wieviel wiegen Sie?_____________ kg.
4. Wie groß sind Sie?_____________ cm.
5. Treiben Sie regelmäßig Sport? Wenn nein, beantworten Sie weiter Frage 8.
1 2 Nein.
Ja.
6. Wieviel Stunden pro Woche treiben Sie Sport?
__________ Stunden / Woche.
7. Wenn ja, welche Sportart(en)?
8. Wie ernähren Sie sich? (Mehrere Anworten möglich)
1 2 3 Y Keine
Vegetarisch.
Vollwertig.
Fettarm.
besondere Diät.
7 6 Schlankheitskur Trennkost.
8 Anderes:
_____________
5 Wenig
Milchprodukte.
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
239
9. Ergänzen Sie Ihre Ernährung mit der Einnahme von Vitaminen- und/oder
Mineralientabletten?
1 2 Nein.
-D
10. Wie würden Sie Ihren Gesundheitszustand insgesamt einschätzen?
(Bitte machen sie entsprechend Ihres Gesundheitszustandes ein Kreuz auf der
Skala)
0
1
sehr
schlecht
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
mittel
10
sehr
gut
11. Haben Sie früher geraucht oder rauchen Sie zur Zeit?
1 2 3 Habe früher
Rauche zur
Habe noch nie
geraucht,
Zeit.
geraucht.
rauche jetzt
nicht mehr.
12. Wenn ja, wieviel rauchen Sie durchschnittlich?
1 2 3 1-10
11-20
mehr als 20
Zigaretten am
Zigaretten am
Zigaretten am
Tag.
Tag.
Tag.
4 ich rauche
Zigarren,
Zigarillos, oder
Pfeifen.
Anzahl pro Tag:
________
13. Wieviel Bier, Wein oder andere alkoholischen Getränken nehmen Sie
durchschnittlich in einer Woche zu sich?
1 2 3 4 5 6x ein halbes
7x ein halbes
6x ein Glas
7x ein Glas
6x ein Glas
Liter Bier oder
Liter Bier, oder Wein oder Sekt Wein oder Sekt Spirituosen
weniger.
mehr.
(0,2dl), oder
(0,2L), oder
(0,2L), oder
mehr.
weniger.
mehr.
7 6 8 7x ein Glas
Ich trinke
Ich trinke keinen
Spirituosen
gelegentlich
Alkohol.
(0,2dl), oder
Alkohol (1-2 Mal
mehr.
im Monat).
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
240
Es gibt unterschiedliche Meinungen über mögliche Zusammenhänge zwischen
psychischen Faktoren und der Entstehung von bestimmten Krankheiten. Im
folgenden haben wir einige solcher Faktoren aufgelistet. Bitte kreuzen Sie zu jedem
Punkt an, ob bzw. in welchem Ausmaß er Ihrer Meinung nach zur Entstehung von
Rückenschmerzen, Krebs- und/oder Herzkrankheiten beiträgt. Die Zahlen
entsprechen folgenden Antwortmöglichkeiten:
-2
völlig
unzutreffend
-1
0
weder zutreffend noch
unzutreffend
+1
+2
völlig
zutreffend
Bei der Entstehung dieser Krankheiten spielen folgende Ursachen eine wichtige
Rolle:
5FNHQVFKPHU]HQ
8Q]XIULHGHQKHLWDP
$UEHLWVSODW] ±
'DXHUKDIWH
hEHUIRUGHUXQJ
±
(QWWlXVFKXQJHQEHU
EHVWLPPWHQLFKWHUUHLFKWH
/HEHQV=LHOH ±
$QGDXHUQGHIDPLOLlUH
3UREOHPH
±
,PPHUZLHGHUNHKUHQGH
=XNXQIWVbQJVWH
±
+RIIQXQJVORVLJNHLWXQG
5HVLJQDWLRQ ±
6WlQGLJHU6WUHXQG
=HLWGUXFN
±
9HUOXVWJHOLHEWHU3HUVRQHQ
GXUFK7RGRGHU7UHQQXQJ
±
+lXILJH8QWHUGUFNXQJYRQ
:XWXQGbUJHU
±
(LQVDPNHLWXQG
.RQWDNWDUPXW ±
6WlQGLJHV=XUFNVWHOOHQ
HLJHQHU%HGUIQLVVH
±
.UHEVHUNUDQNXQJ
+HU]HUNUDQNXQJ
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
+lXILJH8QWHUGUFNXQJ
YRQ*HIKOHQYRQ7UDXHU
XQG1LHGHUJHVFKODJHQ
KHLW +RKH/HLVWXQJV
DQIRUGHUXQJHQ
DQVLFKVHOEVW $QKDOWHQGHHPRWLRQDOH
8QDXVJHJOLFKHQKHLWXQG
(PSILQGOLFKNHLW
$QKDOWHQGHGHSUHVVLYH
9HUVWLPPXQJ 7UDXPDWLVFKH
(UOHEQLVVH
241
5FNHQVFKPHU]HQ
.UHEVHUNUDQNXQJ
+HU]HUNUDQNXQJ
±
±
±
±
±
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
242
Beantworten Sie jede Frage spontan nach dem Lesen. Dazu kreuzen Sie bitte
gemäß dem Grad ihrer Zustimmung oder Ablehnung jeweils eine der folgenden
Antwortmöglichkeiten an:
0
völlig
unzutreffend
1
2
weder zutreffend noch
unzutreffend
3
4
völlig
zutreffend
1. Oft stehe ich fassungslos den Ereignissen
in meinem Leben gegenüber.
0
1
2
3
4
2. Ich frage mich häufig: „Warum muß mir
das gerade passieren?“.
0
1
2
3
4
3. Ich liebe das Leben.
0
1
2
3
4
4. Ich glaube, daß ich fast jeder Lebensaufgabe
gewachsen bin.
0
1
2
3
4
5. Mein Leben ist ein einziges Chaos, da sich
jeden Tag Dinge oder Situationen ereignen,
die nicht vorhersehbar sind.
0
1
2
3
4
6. Was mein zukünftiges Leben angeht, bin ich
sehr optimistisch.
0
1
2
3
4
7. Ich kann oft nicht verstehen, warum die Dinge
sich so entwickeln und nicht anders.
0
1
2
3
4
8. Ich bin ein Optimist.
0
1
2
3
4
9.Im Großen und Ganzen habe ich großes
Vertrauen in die Fähigkeiten und Absichten
unserer Politiker.
0
1
2
3
4
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
243
Lesen Sie bitte die folgenden Sätze. Entscheiden Sie bei jeder Fragestellung, ob sie
für Sie zutrifft oder nicht. Kreuzen Sie eine der vier Ziffern entsprechend der Stärke
Ihrer Zustimmung bzw. Ablehnung an. Lassen Sie bitte keinen Satz aus.
0
1
2
3
trifft gar
nicht zu
trifft etwas
zu
trifft überwiegend zu
trifft ausgesprochen zu
1. In letzter Zeit bin ich sehr ängstlich und schreckhaft.
0
1
2
3
2. Ich fühle mich niedergeschlagen und schwermütig.
0
1
2
3
3. Ich kann das, was ich lese, nicht mehr so gut verstehen
wie früher.
0
1
2
3
4. Am liebsten würde ich mir das Leben nehmen.
0
1
2
3
5. Ich habe zu anderen Menschen keine innere Beziehung
mehr.
0
1
2
3
6. Ich fühle, daß ich nahe daran bin, zusammenzubrechen. 0
1
2
3
7. Ich habe ständig Angst, daß ich etwas Falsches sagen
oder tun könnte.
0
1
2
3
8. Ich bin jetzt viel weniger am Liebesleben interessiert.
0
1
2
3
9. Oft fühle ich mich einfach miserabel.
0
1
2
3
10. Ich komme beim besten Willen nicht mit den kleinsten
Gedankenschritten voran.
0
1
2
3
11. Ich habe keine Gefühle mehr.
0
1
2
3
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
244
Arbeit / Beschäftigung
Wie betrachten Sie ihre Arbeitsstelle? Kreuzen Sie eine der fünf Ziffern entsprechend
der Häufigkeit der folgenden Gedanken an. Lassen Sie bitte keinen Satz aus.
0
sehr
selten
1
selten
2
hin und
wieder
3
oft
4
sehr
oft
1. Ich freue mich nach einem Urlaub,
wieder arbeiten gehen zu können.
0
1
2
3
4
2. Ich bin mit meiner Arbeitssituation
zufrieden und ich hoffe, daß sie
so bleibt.
0
1
2
3
4
3. Als ArbeitnehmerIn habe ich
wenig Einfluß auf meine
Arbeitssituation.
0
1
2
3
4
4. Ich bin von meiner Arbeitsstelle nicht
begeistert, aber sie könnte schlimmer
sein.
0
1
2
3
4
5. Ich bin nahe dran, zu kündigen. Die
Arbeitssituation ist nicht mehr
erträglich.
0
1
2
3
4
6. Wie zufrieden Sie sind insgesamt mit Ihrer Arbeitsstelle?
0
1
sehr
unzufrieden
2
weder /
noch
3
4
sehr
zufrieden
%LRSV\FKRVRFLDO9DULDEOHVDQG/RZ%DFN3DLQ
245
Ausbildung
1. Welchen Schulabschluß haben Sie?
(Falls Sie mehrere Abschlüsse haben, nennen Sie bitte nur den höchsten.)
1 2 3 4 VolksschulMittlere Reife,
Fachhochschul- Abitur.
/HauptschulRealschulreife.
abschluß.
abschluß.
5 6 Ich habe keinen Anderer
Schulabschluß. Schulabschluß,
und zwar:
_____________
2. Haben Sie eine abgeschlossene Berufsausbildung oder Hochschulausbildung?
Wenn ja, welche?
(Falls Sie mehrere Ausbildungen abgeschlossen haben, geben Sie bitte die letzte an.)
1 Gewerbliche
oder landwirtschaftliche
Lehre.
2 Kaufmännische
oder sonstige
Lehre.
3 Berufsschule,
oder
Handelsschule.
6 Beamtenausbildung.
7 8 Fachhochschule Universität oder
oder
Hochschule.
Ingenieurschule
4 Schule des
Gesundheitswesens.
5 Fachschule,
z.B.
Technikerschule
9 Ich habe keinen
Ausbildungsabschluß.
10
Sonstiger
Ausbildungsabschluß, und
zwar:
_____________

Download Report

Correlations Between Biopsychosocial Variables and Low Back Pain

Paperzz.com

Your Paperzz