434225
3611434225Trouet et al.The Holocene
2012
HOL0010.1177/095968
Research paper
A pan-European summer teleconnection
mode recorded by a new temperature
reconstruction from the northeastern
Mediterranean (ad 1768–2008)
The Holocene
22(8) 887­–898
© The Author(s) 2012
Reprints and permission:
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DOI: 10.1177/0959683611434225
hol.sagepub.com
V Trouet,1 MP Panayotov,2,3 A Ivanova2 and D Frank4,5
Abstract
The dominant atmospheric circulation pattern that governs European summer climate is a blocking-like pattern over the British Isles that co-occurs with a
low over southeastern Europe. The meridionally oriented configuration of this circulation pattern favours the intrusion of warm air over the northeastern
Mediterranean during one mode and over northwestern Europe during its opposite mode. We present a summer temperature reconstruction (1768–
2008) for the southeastern node of this teleconnection pattern. This reconstruction is based on maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements of
23 Pinus heldreichii trees from a high-elevation stand in the Pirin Mountains in Bulgaria. The temperature signal in trees from high-elevation, summer-dry
regions is stronger in MXD measurements compared with tree-ring width data and our reconstruction reflects well interannual- to decadal-scale summer
temperature fluctuations in the Balkans as instrumentally recorded over the twentieth century. Fluctuations in our Bulgarian reconstruction correspond to
summer temperature variability in the Balkans, Italy, and the southern Carpathians, but opposing temperature variability patterns are manifested over the
British Isles and southern Scandinavia. The strong and consistent anti-phase relationship between our reconstruction and a reconstruction of the summer
North Atlantic Oscillation (sNAO) suggests that the sNAO pattern is a main driver of the teleconnection between summer temperatures in southeastern
versus northwestern Europe. This teleconnection is most pronounced on interannual timescales and has been stable over the last two centuries.
Keywords
Balkan, Bulgaria, climate reconstruction, climate response, dendroclimatology, east Atlantic pattern, eastern Mediterranean, maximum latewood
density, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pinus heldreichii, teleconnection, tree-ring
Received 17 May 2011; revised manuscript accepted 16 November 2011
Introduction
The contributions of warm temperatures and dry climate during
the summer to a high potential evapotranspiration make societies
in the Mediterranean region highly dependent on water resources.
Current vulnerabilities in the region include agricultural production (Schroter et al., 2005) and fire risk (Moriondo
et al., 2006) that depend upon both seasonal climatic extremes
driven by synoptic settings as well as low-frequency changes in
climate. Predictions of future climate do not forecast significant
alleviation of these susceptibilities, and the Mediterranean Basin
has accordingly been identified as a climatic change hotspot
(Giorgi, 2006): general circulation models predict high rates of
future warming (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; Onol and Semazzi,
2009) and a decrease in precipitation (Gao and Giorgi, 2008;
Hertig and Jacobeit, 2008). Summer droughts in particular are
predicted to occur more frequently, but may likely be partially
compensated by increased winter precipitation (Giannakopoulos
et al., 2009; Onol and Semazzi, 2009). Climate extremes have
already increased over the 20th century (Kostopoulou and Jones,
2005; Kuglitsch et al., 2010) and are predicted to become even
more frequent in this region in the future (Meehl and Tebaldi,
2004). If these projections for future changes in water availability are accurate, the socio-economic consequences will be significant (Chang et al., 2002).
Climatic variability in the Mediterranean region is strongly
linked to synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (Dünkeloh and Jacobeit, 2003; Xoplaki et al., 2003a, 2004). The North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; Hurrell, 1995), the Arctic Oscillation
(AO; Thompson and Wallace, 1998), the Eastern Atlantic pattern
(EA; Wallace and Gutzler, 1981) and the Eurasian pattern (EU;
Barnston and Livezey, 1987) primarily influence winter precipitation (Cavazos, 2000; Felis and Rimbu, 2010; Founda and van
Loon, 2008; Quadrelli et al., 2001; Turkes and Erlat, 2003, 2008),
whereas summer air temperatures are modulated by blocking conditions over the Basin and by an east–west geopotential height
dipole (Kostopoulou and Jones, 2007; Xoplaki et al., 2003a).
These atmospheric circulation patterns do not only influence climatic variability on seasonal to interannual scales (Onol
and Semazzi, 2009; Xoplaki et al., 2004), but also on decadal to
centennial timescales (Luterbacher et al., 2010). Thus, to quantify and understand low-frequency trends in natural climate
variability, long climatic time-series are necessary. Thermal
1
University of Arizona, USA
University of Forestry, Bulgaria
3
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland
4
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research,
Switzerland
5
University of Bern, Switzerland
2
Corresponding author:
V Trouet, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona,
Tucson AZ 85721, USA.
Email: [email protected]
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The Holocene 22(8)
Figure 1. Location of the study site and of the meteorological stations.
and orographic forcing (Fernandez et al., 2003) further complicate the Mediterranean climatic system and local-to-regional
scale studies of long-term climate variability are therefore
needed to adequately and explicitly capture spatio-temporal
variability in the Mediterranean Basin.
Long instrumental records and proxy data have contributed to
an understanding of long-term climate variation in the Mediterranean region including reconstructions of century-scale climate
variability on basin-wide (Luterbacher et al., 2002; Nicault et al.,
2008; Pauling et al., 2006) as well as regional scales. Wellreplicated tree ring records have been developed for the Pyrenees
(Büntgen et al., 2008, 2010; Tardif et al., 2003), northern Africa
(Esper et al., 2007; Glueck and Stockton, 2001; Touchan et al.,
2008a, 2008b), northeastern Italy (Serre-Bachet, 1994), and the
southeastern Mediterranean (Akkemik and Aras, 2005; Griggs
et al., 2007; Touchan et al., 2005a, 2005b, 2007). Historical documentary data are also widely available for the Mediterranean
region (Camuffo et al., 2010) and have been used to reconstruct
climatic conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (Barriendos and
Rodrigo, 2006; Dominguez-Castro et al., 2008) and Sicily (Piervitali and Colacino, 2001). Additional proxies such as speleothems (Fleitmann et al., 2009) and isotopic measurements on
annually banded reef corals (Felis and Rimbu, 2010) have also
provided additional high-resolution information about past climatic information.
While general progress has been made in understanding longterm variations in the Mediterranean Basin, there are particular
regions for which reliable proxy records are scarce. The Balkan
Peninsula, for instance, is located at the pivot point for the abovementioned east–west synoptic dipole. The treeline forests that
occur at multiple high-elevation locations within the Balkan
region are often dominated by centuries-old trees with high dendroclimatological potential (Panayotov and Yurukov, 2007; Panayotov et al., 2010; Seim et al., 2012). Nonetheless, high-resolution
proxy climate data for this region are sparse (Vakarelov et al.,
2001; Xoplaki et al., 2001). Tree growth at high-elevation Mediterranean sites is typically influenced by a combination of temperature and drought factors and correlations between tree ring
width (TRW) measurement series and individual climatic parameters at these sites are often too weak for the use of TRW series as
climate proxies (Büntgen et al., 2010; Panayotov et al., 2010). At
these sites, maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements
can contain a much stronger climatic signal than tree ring width
(Büntgen et al., 2008, 2010). It is worth noting that at the driest
sites, even at high elevation, only drought variability is recorded
in TRW (Esper et al., 2007) and at these sites TRW can be a more
successful climate proxy than MXD (Esper et al., 2006).
In this study, we explore the dendroclimatic potential of a
Pinus heldreichii (PIHE), also known as Pinus leucodermis
Antoine, MXD data set from a high-elevation site in the Pirin
Mountains in southwestern Bulgaria. We use this MXD chronology to reconstruct regional summer temperature variability and
investigate the atmospheric circulation patterns that drive this
variability on interannual to decadal timescales.
Material and methods
Study area
PIHE tree-ring samples were collected in an open forest at a site
on the eastern slope of Vihren Peak in the Pirin Mountains of
southwestern Bulgaria (41.7N, 23.5E; Figure 1). The study site
is located at an elevation of 1950–2150 m a.s.l. in the subalpine
zone at the local treeline. Anthropogenic influence has been
limited by the steepness of the site slope (30–50°). The PIHE
trees grow on Rendzic Leptosols and Regosols formed on marble bedrock.
The Pirin Mountains are located at the transition between the
Mediterranean and continental climate zones (Grunewald et al.,
2009), with precipitation peaks occurring from late autumn to
late spring (Tran et al., 2002). A substantial fraction of the annual
precipitation falls as snow in winter and deep snow covers of
more than 2 m occur frequently. Average annual temperature
(1954–1979) at the Vihren chalet (1970 m a.s.l.) is 3.5°C and
average annual precipitation is 1378 mm.
Tree ring analysis
We collected two core samples per tree from 15 living PIHE trees
at the study site in summer 2009. Trees ranged in age between 47
and 253 years with a median segment length of 187 years. MXD
was measured on individual samples using a WALESCH 2003
x-ray densitometer with 0.01 mm resolution, and brightness
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Trouet et al.
variations were transferred into g/cm3 using a calibration wedge
(Eschbach et al., 1995). Measurements were then corrected based
on the relationship between absolute (volume and weight) and
radiographic (x-ray) wood density. During the MXD measurement procedure, amongst other wood parameters, also TRW is
obtained. To this recent collection of data, we added TRW and
MXD measurements from 11 PIHE trees sampled in the Vihren
National Park (at 1920 m a.s.l.) by Fritz Schweingruber in 1981.
These data are available in both the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL’s data bank and the International Tree-Ring Data Bank
(ITRDB; Grissino-Mayer and Fritts, 1997; shttp://www.ncdc.
noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html). The MXD and TRW chronologies
based on these 11 samples covered the period 1763–1981 (>5
trees) and correlated strongly over this period with temporary
TRW and MXD chronologies based on the newly collected samples (r=0.85; p<0.01 for MXD and r=0.65; p<0.01 for TRW). We
therefore decided to combine the two data sets and develop two
new MXD and TRW chronologies.
Cross-dating of the MXD and TRW series was checked using
COFECHA software (Grissino-Mayer, 2001) and graphical analyses. Age-related trends, represented by a general negative exponential curve, were conservatively removed from the raw MXD
and TRW measurements by calculating residuals using ARSTAN
software (Cook, 1985). Chronologies were then developed by
averaging the detrended series using a robust mean (Cook and
Peters, 1997). The final chronologies were truncated at a minimum
sample replication of ten series to ensure sufficient signal and prevent biases to the variance structure (Wigley et al., 1984). Interseries correlation (RBAR) and the expressed population signal (EPS)
were calculated for 30 yr windows lagged by 15 years to assess the
signal strength of the chronologies (Wigley et al., 1984).
In total, 42 samples from 23 trees were cross-datable and
incorporated in the final chronologies with mean RBAR values of
0.32 (MXD) and 0.34 (TRW). The resulting chronologies covered
the period 1768–2008 with ten series (from six trees) and mean
EPS-values were 0.93 for both chronologies and were higher than
the commonly utilized, but arbitrary, threshold of 0.85 from 1765
onwards (see Figure 3b).
Climate data, analysis, and reconstruction
Three meteorological stations were considered for the climate/
tree growth analysis: Vihren hut (41.8N, 23.5E; 1970 m a.s.l.;
1954–1979), Bansko (41.8N, 23.5E; 935 m a.s.l.; 1933–present),
and Sofia (42.45N, 23.2E; 550 m a.s.l.; 1887–present). The
Vihren hut station is located at only 1 km from the study site and
at roughly the same elevation, but the 25 yr long time-series for
this station is not long enough for climate reconstruction purposes. The Sofia station is at a further distance (approx. 100 km)
from the study site than the Bansko station (approx. 12 km), but
we decided to use the Sofia climate data for analysis and reconstruction because of the length of the Sofia time-series and the
reliability of the data. Correlations between monthly time-series
from Sofia and Bansko are high for temperature (ranging from
0.81 for June to 0.96 for February; 1933–2005; p<0.01) and lower
for precipitation (0.43 for June to 0.77 for October; 1933–2005;
p<0.01). The climatic data were provided by the Bulgarian
National Hydrometeorological Institute and were verified for outliers, but not homogenized. We used Rotated Principal Component Analysis (RPCA) based indices of NAO and EA as provided
by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the period
1950–2010.
Spatial correlation analyses between the MXD chronology
and climatic data sets were based on gridded seasonal (June–
August) air temperature and precipitation fields for the period
1901–2006 (CRU T.S3.0; Mitchell and Jones, 2005) and on seasonal (June–August) 500 hPA geopotential height fields for the
period 1878–present (Twentieth Century Reanalysis; Compo
et al., 2011). For the pre-instrumental period (1768–1900), we
used seasonal historical gridded reconstructions of air temperature (Luterbacher et al., 2004), precipitation (Pauling et al.,
2006), and 500 hPA geopotential height (Luterbacher et al.,
2002). Spatial correlation and composite maps were generated
using the KNMI explorer (van Oldenborgh and Burgers, 2005;
http://climexp.knmi.nl).
We reconstructed August temperature by linearly transforming (also referred to as scaling) the MXD values to match the
mean and variance of the August temperature data for Sofia over
the 1887–2005 period. For this purpose, instrumental temperatures were calculated as anomalies from the 1961–1990 reference
period. While the exact form of the calibration and reconstruction
methodologies has been the subject of considerable discussion
(e.g. Christiansen, 2011; Esper et al., 2005b; Lee et al., 2008;
Mann et al., 2005; Rutherford et al., 2005; von Storch et al.,
2004), a primary advantage of the so-called composite plus scaling technique with variance matching (e.g., Jones et al., 1998) is
a more accurate estimate of the amplitude of past temperature
change (e.g. Esper et al., 2005a; Frank et al., 2010), but at the
price of increased error variance (Kutzbach et al., 2011). We note
that the variety of techniques involving a linear transformation of
a single proxy data set does not alter the shape of the reconstruction, but that centennial-scale trends are not preserved in our
chronology because of its limited mean segment length (187
years), which is likely to affect amplitude estimates (Cook et al.,
1995). Calibration/verification tests were calculated on the scaled
reconstruction over two subperiods (1887–1947 and 1948–2005)
(Cook et al., 1994).
Uncertainty in the August temperature reconstruction arises
from unexplained variance in the scaling model (calibration error)
and the decreasing number of tree ring series back through time
(chronology error; Esper et al., 2007). We estimated the calibration error as two standard error (SE) 95% confidence intervals
(CI) for the full calibration period 1887–2005. We used ARSTAN
software (Cook, 1985) to estimate the chronology error by bootstrapping (Briffa et al., 1992). Standardized tree ring measurements for every year were sampled with replacement 1000 times
and arithmetic means were calculated. Two-tailed 95% CI were
estimated based on the distribution of the bootstrapped mean. The
composite plus scaling technique was then applied to the upper
and lower limits of the CI for the tree-ring chronology and the
overall error for the temperature reconstruction was estimated as
the square root of the summed and squared calibration and chronology error terms.
Results
Climate–growth relationships
The two tree-ring parameters MXD and TRW show a distinct
response pattern to interannual variability in temperature and precipitation (Figure 2). These correlation patterns are found to be
generally time stable with no significant differences found when
computed over the full (1887–2005), early (1887–1947), or recent
(1948–2005) periods. MXD responds positively to warm season
temperatures with highest correlations to temperatures averaged
over July to September (r=0.71; p<0.001). Monthly correlations
peak during August (r=0.65; p<0.001), and for this month there is
the highest evidence for signal stationarity, with split period correlations always exceeding the 99% confidence interval. Inverse
correlations between MXD and precipitation are found and likely
reflect the negative correlation between temperature and precipitation during the summer months.
TRW, on the other hand, is positively correlated with winter
(December to April) temperature (r=0.35; p<0.001), but
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890
The Holocene 22(8)
Temperature
Precipitation
1887-2005
0.6
1887-1947
0.4
1948-2005
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.2
0
0
-0.2
- 0.2
-0.4
- 0.4
0.8
- 0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
Dec-Apr
Jul-Sep
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Dec-Apr
Jul-Sep
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Oct
-0.4
Mar
-0.2
Feb
-0.2
Jan
0
Dec
0
Nov
TRW
MXD
0.8
-0.4
Figure 2. Correlation of PIHE MXD (top) and TRW (bottom) chronologies with monthly (October of the previous year until September of
the current year) and seasonal (July–September and December–April) temperature (left) and precipitation (right) values. Correlations were
calculated over the full instrumental period (1887–2005) and two split periods (1887–1947 and 1948–2005). Horizontal lines indicate the 99%
confidence limits for the full period (dashed lines) and for the split periods (dotted lines).
Table 1. Calibration and verification statistics between the
PIHE MXD series and August (Aug) and July–September (JAS)
temperatures.
Period
Calibration
Verification
R2
Aug/JAS
R2
Aug/JAS
RE
Aug/JAS
CE
Aug/JAS
1887–1947
1948–2005
1887–2005
0.45/0.5
0.41/0.35
0.42/0.42
0.41/0.35
0.45/0.5
0.16/−0.005
0.31/0.44
0.15/−0.008
0.31/0.44
negatively correlated with temperature variations from May to
September (r=−0.3; p<0.01 for June). Correlations between TRW
and precipitation are generally weak, but are highest and positive
from May until July (r=0.3; p<0.01 for June).
August temperature reconstruction
Based upon the climate response of the MXD measurements, we
performed calibration and verification trials between the PIHE
MXD series and August temperatures and July–September temperatures (Table 1).
For August temperatures, 41% to 45% of the variance was
explained in the verification procedure, indicating strong reconstruction skill and a stable strength of the climate signal in the tree
ring record. This stability and the ability to capture lower frequency trends was confirmed by RE and CE statistics (Cook et
al., 1994), with positive values for both statistics during the early
and late verification periods. This was not the case for July–September temperatures: whereas 50% of the variance was explained
in the earlier period, only 35% was explained in the later period.
This temporal discrepancy was reflected in the RE and CE
statistics, which were negative (reflecting lack of reconstruction
skill) during the early verification period. We therefore reconstructed August temperatures (Figure 3) over the period 1768–
2008 and the final reconstruction explains 42% of the instrumental
variance based upon full period (1887–2005) correlations. It is
worth noting, however, that calibration/verification tests are
influenced by the choice of reconstruction methodology: RE and
CE statistics generally have lower values for scaled compared
with regressed reconstructions. We thus selected a strict calibration/verification test, which might explain failure of the tests for
the July–September temperature reconstruction. Furthermore, a
Durban-Watson test shows that the scaled residual MXD chronology is not positively autocorrelated (d=1.76, p<0.01) and thus that
low-frequency persistence in the chronology and reconstruction is
limited.
Reconstructed and instrumental temperatures exhibit common
inter-annual (r=0.65 for n=116; p<0.01) to decadal-scale (calculated as the Pearson correlation coefficient between time-series of
sequential 5 yr non-overlapping means, n=21, r=0.68, p<0.01)
variability (Figure 3a). Lower-frequency (centennial-scale) trends
are likely not preserved in our reconstruction for the Pirin Mountains (hereafter called PIMO) because of limited segment length
and individual series data adaptive detrending. The instrumental
period features three distinct cold periods that are common to
both records: the late 1890s (~1894–1902), the early 1910s
(~1909–1916), and the late 1930s (~1935–1939). The prolonged
cold phase in the 1970s and 1980s and the subsequent positive
trend that is recorded in the instrumental data is not well captured
by PIMO, which exhibits a shorter and earlier cold phase (~1968–
1976) and generally warmer temperatures in the late 1970s and
1980s. Warm periods include the late 1920s (~1927–1931), the
mid 1940s (1942–1947), and the late 1990s (1997–2001). A contingency analysis (Table 2) reveals that approximately two-thirds
of the warmest and coldest individual years in the instrumental
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Trouet et al.
Aug temp
Reconstruction
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
1895
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
40
30
20
10
0
-8
1760
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
sample depth
Aug temperature anomaly
-6
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
EPS
B
1885
Aug temperature anomaly
A
Figure 3. Annual and decadally smoothed (5 yr cubic spline) reconstructed and instrumental (1887–2005; a) and reconstructed (1768–2008; b;
10 yr smoothing spline) Sofia August temperatures. Combined error (chronology and calibration) is shown (shaded) for the full reconstruction
in (b). The 12 (13) warmest (coldest) years representing the 80th (20th) percentile that are common to both records are indicated by black
stars (open circles) in (a). Thirty-year EPS values and sample depth are shown in (b).
Table 2. Contingency table of observed and reconstructed August
temperatures (1887–2005). Years were ranked and divided into
five equal 23 yr classes (26 yr for the moderate class). The class
of the observed August temperature for each year was then
compared with the class for the reconstructed temperature.
Observed
Very low
Low
Moderate
High
Very high
Reconstructed
Very low
Low
Moderate
High
Very high
12
7
2
2
0
5
7
8
3
0
5
6
6
7
2
1
3
8
3
8
0
0
2
8
13
data are recorded in PIMO: 12 (13) out of 23 very low (high)
temperatures are common in both records. Only 11% of the 46
warmest and coldest years in the instrumental record (4 warm
years and 1 cold year), however, fall outside of the error margins
calculated for PIMO (Figure 3a and b).
Prior to the instrumental period, our reconstruction provides
new evidence for temperatures back into the 18th century, with
extremely cold summers in 1808, 1814, 1819, 1857, and 1884,
and anomalous warmth in 1822, 1828, 1844, 1855, and 1856
(Figure 3b). The largest deviations from the long-term mean
(0.53) occurred during the late 1700s and early 1800s. A 25 yr
period with predominantly warm temperatures (~1782–1807)
was followed by a remarkably cold period of comparable length
(~1808–1827). The peak of the warm phase occurred around
1796–1797, the peak of the cold phase around 1812–1814. Both
these reconstructed warm and cold periods exceed the decadalscale temperature variability reconstructed for the instrumental
period in amplitude, although caution is warranted in this conclusion because of possible loss of low-frequency information
caused by the chronology development methods utilized.
Atmospheric circulation patterns over the eastern
Mediterranean region
Analyses with instrumental data have demonstrated that atmospheric circulation patterns modulate climatic conditions in the
Pirin Mountains with most pronounced influence during winter
(Brown and Petkova, 2007; Tran et al., 2002). Above-normal
snow cover and extreme winter precipitation events in Bulgaria
are associated with negative phases of NAO, the EA (Brown and
Petkova, 2007; Kostopoulou and Jones, 2007), and the Arctic
Oscillation (AO; Cavazos, 2000).
In summer, the dominant atmospheric circulation pattern that
governs European climate is a blocking-like pattern over northwestern Europe that co-occurs with a negative geopotential height
(from 300 to 1000 hPA) anomaly over southeastern Europe (Casty
et al., 2007). The meridionally oriented configuration of this circulation pattern favours the intrusion of warm air over the northeastern Mediterranean during one mode, when a low dominates
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The Holocene 22(8)
Temperature
70N
Precipitation
a
b
60N
50N
40N
30N
30W
20W
10W
0
10E
20E
30E
40E 30W
20W
10W
sEA
70N
0
10E
20E
30E
40E
20E
30E
40E
sNAO
c
d
60N
50N
40N
30N
30W 20W
10W
0
10E
20E
30E
40E 30W 20W
10W
0
10E
Figure 4. Pearson correlation maps of summer (June–August) Sofia temperature (a), precipitation (b) and sEA (c) and sNAO (d) indices
(NOAA CPC) with 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly fields over the period 1950–2005. Correlations are significant (p<0.05) for |r|>0.27.
The location of Sofia meteorological station and the study site is indicated by a black star on the maps.
the British Isles, and over the British Isles during its opposite
mode, when blocking occurs over the British Isles. This atmospheric circulation pattern has previously been identified as the
dominant mode of summer air temperature variability in Greece
on interannual as well as decadal scales (Xoplaki et al., 2003a)
and as the primary driver of extreme dry periods over the Eastern
Mediterranean (Oikonomou et al., 2010). It explains 24% of the
variance in summer air temperature (Xoplaki et al., 2003b) and
close to 30% in summer precipitation (Dünkeloh and Jacobeit,
2003) over the entire Mediterranean region.
The results in Figure 4 confirm the importance of this circulation pattern for Bulgarian climate: hot and dry (cold and wet)
summers in Bulgaria are characterized by strongly negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies centered over the British Isles
and anomalously positive (negative) geopotential heights over the
Balkans. Two summer teleconnection patterns can be related to
this meridional circulation pattern: the summer NAO (sNAO) and
the summer EA (sEA) pattern. During summer, the two nodes
dominating the sign of the NAO, the Icelandic Low and the
Azores High, move northward and negative sNAO phases are
characterized by a trough over the British Isles (rather than a ridge
as is the case in winter) and by positive pressure anomalies over
the Azores and over southeastern Europe (Figure 4d). As a result,
negative sNAO phases invoke wet and cold summers in northwestern Europe and dry, warm conditions in the northeastern
Mediterranean (Barnston and Livezey, 1987) and thus show an
opposite pattern as the negative winter NAO phase. For example,
precipitation in Sofia correlates negatively with the NOAA CPC
NAO index (1950–2005) in winter (December–February;
r=−0.32; p<0.05), but positively in summer (June–August;
r=0.26; p<0.1). The sEA pattern (Barnston and Livezey, 1987)
strongly resembles the sNAO pattern, albeit with an opposite sign
and a relatively stronger anomaly over the northeastern Mediterranean and the Azores, and a weaker anomaly over the British
Isles and southern Scandinavia in particular (Figure 4c). Summer
precipitation in Sofia is thus positively correlated with the sNAO
index, but negatively with the sEA index (r=−0.4, p<0.01). Previous studies of Mediterranean climate have found that EA explains
19% of the total 500 hPa geopotential height variance over the
Mediterranean (Quadrelli et al., 2001) and influences temperature
variability in Italy in all seasons but autumn (Toreti et al., 2010).
Spatial correlations of the Sofia temperature
reconstruction PIMO
PIMO is significantly positively correlated with instrumental
summer temperatures in the Balkan region and in southern Italy
(Figure 5a). Inverse correlations are found with summer temperatures in the British Isles, in southern Scandinavia, and in the
coastal regions of western and northern Europe. The strong anticorrelation between temperature and precipitation in summer
explains the correlation pattern with European summer precipitation (Figure 5b): PIMO is negatively correlated with precipitation patterns in the Balkans and southern Italy and positively
with precipitation in the British Isles and Scandinavia. The geopotential height correlation map shows a blocking over the
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Temperature
1901-2006
70N
Precipitation
Geopotential height
a
b
c
d
e
f
60N
50N
40N
30N
1768-1900
70N
60N
50N
40N
30N
30W 20W
10W
0
10E
20E
30E 40E 30W 20W
10W
0
10E
20E
30E 40E 30W 20W
10W
0
10E
20E
30E
40E
Figure 5. Correlation maps of PIMO with instrumental (1901–2005; Compo et al., 2011; Mitchell and Jones, 2005; top) and reconstructed
(1768–1900; Luterbacher et al., 2002, 2004; Pauling et al., 2006; bottom) fields of summer (June–August) temperature (a, d), precipitation (b,
e), and 500 hPA geopotential height (c, f). Absolute r-values higher than 0.2 (coloured regions) are significant at the 95% confidence level (for
n=100). The location of our study site is indicated on the maps by a black star. Spatial correlation and composite maps were generated using
the KNMI explorer (van Oldenborgh and Burgers, 2005; http://climexp.knmi.nl).
Balkan Peninsula during warm summers that co-occurs with a
low over the British Isles (Figure 5c). As described in the previous section, this pattern resembles the negative phase of the
sNAO and can explain the teleconnection between northwestern
and southeastern European temperature and precipitation patterns. PIMO thus correlates significantly with a RPCA-based
sNAO index (1950–2008; r=−0.49; p<0.001). The correlation
maps prior to the 20th century (1768–1900) show striking similarities in correlation extent with the instrumental period maps,
but the strength of the correlations is weaker over this earlier
(and longer) time period (Figure 5d–f). The strength of the climatic signal in PIMO, as well as the general stability of the
described teleconnection patterns, is thus confirmed on an interannual scale back to 1768.
To further investigate the stationarity of the teleconnection
patterns with temperature, we compiled 90 MXD records from
across Europe from the ITRDB. All chronologies were 55 years
or longer after truncation at a sample replication of ten series. We
were primarily interested in the high-frequency synoptic relationships across Europe and therefore the so-called residual chronologies (with low-order autocorrelation removed from individual
series before chronology compilation) were used for correlation
analyses (Figure 6a). We found overall positive correlations with
MXD time series in the Balkans, southern and central Italy, and
the Carpathians. Correlations were particularly strong for other
PIHE chronologies and ranged from 0.58 for Crispo, Italy to 0.72
for Mount Olympos in Greece. PIMO also correlated significantly
positively (r=0.25; p<0.01) with a documentary-based reconstruction of summer temperature in southern Italy (Camuffo et al.,
2010; 1791–2006). It is interesting that PIMO did not correlate
with MXD chronologies in Cyprus, the western Mediterranean, or
in the Alps and central Europe, but showed significantly negative
correlations with MXD chronologies from Scotland and England
(r=−0.16; n.s. for Mallaig to r=−0.47; p<0.001 for Dimmie).
These correlation patterns with the MXD records across Europe
match the teleconnections derived from instrumental data,
between tree ring and instrumental data, and between tree ring
and multiproxy reconstructions across Europe. As the MXD
records were independent from the above, this gives further confidence in the robustness and importance of this pattern.
Folland et al. (2009) combined two of the MXD records from
Scotland (Coulin and Inverey) with MXD and TRW records from
western Norway for their reconstruction of the sNAO and PIMO
correlates significantly negatively with this sNAO reconstruction
over its full length (1768–1976; r=−0.43; p<0.001; Figure 6b).
The correlation is predominantly expressed in the high (interannual) frequency domain (r=−0.48; p<0.001) and diminishes on
lower (decadal) frequencies (r=−0.05; n.s. for 10 yr splinesmoothed series). The correlation is fairly stable over time: a running correlation analysis (31 yr moving windows calculated over
the central year) showed that high-frequency correlations were
negative at all points in time and statistically significant (p<0.05)
over the full time-period apart from the 1920s (1922–1932) and
the early 1800s (1796–1831).
Discussion
In this paper, we present the first PIHE-based reconstruction of
summer temperature for Bulgaria that extends back to 1768. This
reconstruction is based upon a compilation of new and existing
MXD measurements from high-elevation PIHE trees in the Pirin
Mountains. The climatic signal in trees from high-elevation, summer-dry regions is generally much stronger in MXD measurements compared with TRW data (Büntgen et al., 2010) in line
with the increased climatic sensitivity of MXD (Frank and Esper,
2005). PIHE TRW variability at our sites is weakly sensitive to
previous winter temperatures and to early summer drought (Figure 2). The positive response of PIHE tree growth to mild winter
and spring conditions has been described in other studies in the
Balkans (Panayotov et al., 2010) and in earlywood measurements
from southern Italy (Todaro et al., 2007) and has been attributed
to an earlier onset of cambial activity and other differentiation
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894
The Holocene 22(8)
a
r>0.6
r>0.4
r>0.2
-0.2<r<0.2
r<-0.2
r<-0.4
b
-15
4
-10
2
-5
0
0
2-
5
461760
10
PIMO
sNAO inversed
1780
1800
1820
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
sNAO index (inversed)
Aug temperature anomaly
6
15
1980
year
Figure 6. (a) Pearson correlation coefficients r between PIMO and other MXD chronologies in Europe. MXD chronologies include all
chronologies for Europe that date back prior to 1900 and are available in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB; Grissino-Mayer and
Fritts, 1997; shttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html). PIHE MXD chronologies are indicated by squares. Absolute r-values higher than 0.2
are significant at the 95% confidence level (for n=100); (b) annual and decadally smoothed (10 yr smoothing spline) reconstructions of August
temperature anomalies in Bulgaria (black) and of summer NAO (Folland et al., 2009; grey, inversed).
phases, resulting in an increased duration of xylogenesis (Deslauriers et al., 2008). Other potential explanations include increased
soil moisture availability after warm winter snowmelt and fine
root damage during unusually cold winters (Panayotov et al.,
2010). Given the location of our study site on a steep, sun-exposed
slope with shallow rooting, the sensitivity of PIHE growth to
summer drought does not come as a surprise, despite the high
elevation. Latewood formation in high-elevation PIHE trees
occurs between mid to late July and early to late September
(Deslauriers et al., 2008; Rossi et al., 2006) matching well with
MXD sensitivity derived from analysis with monthly instrumental data (Figure 2). August temperatures in particular influence
wall thickening and lignification processes in PIHE and thus latewood density (Deslauriers et al., 2008). The lignification of the
outmost row of latewood tracheids extends considerably beyond
cessation of cambial activity, which could explain the relation
between MXD and late summer temperature (Gricar et al., 2005).
TRW and MXD time-series generally differ in carry-over
effects from previous year growth conditions and thus in autocorrelation strength (Briffa et al., 2002; Frank et al., 2007b). Earlywood cell formation, for instance, a dominant contributor to
TRW, can depend on carbohydrate storage during the previous
growing season as well as longer lasting effects related to climatic
influences on needle length and retention, root growth, and so on
(Fritts, 1976; Kozlowski and Pallardy, 1997). These autocorrelation processes tend to give the TRW a ‘redder’ spectrum in comparison to the climatic drivers (Frank et al., 2007a; Meko, 1981).
TRW in PIHE trees from a site very similar to our study site in the
Pirin mountains was thus found to be sensitive to previous years
summer temperature and precipitation (Panayotov et al., 2010).
MXD data on the other hand are generally less strongly correlated
with prior seasons and have an autocorrelation structure that more
closely resembles that of the climatic forcing (Frank et al., 2007a).
For this reason, and because age-trends are often not as variable
in MXD time-series compared with TRW series (Schweingruber
et al., 1978), we applied a general negative exponential detrending in this study, which retains the strongest signal in the interannual frequency. As a result, our MXD-based reconstruction
mainly reflects interannual temperature variability and decadalscale variations through smoothing, but because of the limited
mean segment length of our chronology, longer-term (centennialscale) trends are not preserved (Cook et al., 1995).
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On a decadal scale, our reconstruction reflects well summer
temperature fluctuations in the Balkans over the instrumental
period and particularly over the first half of the 20th century
(Figure 3a). The cold periods in the 1890s and the 1910s and the
summer warming in the 1920s and 1940s are not only evident
from the Sofia instrumental data, but also from summer temperature records for the eastern Mediterranean (Repapis and Philandras, 1988; Xoplaki et al., 2003a), and in Mediterranean sea
surface temperatures (Metaxas et al., 1991). The 1940s in particular have also been identified as a period of widespread summer
drought in Bulgaria (Alexandrov et al., 2004; Koleva and Alexandrov, 2008; Tran et al., 2002) and throughout Europe (Briffa et al.,
1994). Interdecadal correspondence between the reconstructed
and instrumental records is less close after approximately 1970.
The warming trend since the early 1980s that is apparent in the
Sofia record and throughout the eastern Mediterranean (Alexandrov et al., 2004; Giles and Flocas, 1984; Philandras et al., 2008;
Toreti et al., 2010; Xoplaki et al., 2003a) is interrupted in our
reconstruction by warm/dry conditions recorded for the 1980s. It
is worth noting that this summer warming trend in the eastern
Mediterranean is lagged compared with general Northern Hemisphere warming (Feidas et al., 2004; Giles and Flocas, 1984;
Maheras and Kutiel, 1999). The discrepancy between reconstructed and instrumental temperatures starting in the 1970s can
be caused by the lack of homogenization of the Sofia instrumental
data (and thus the lack of removal of urbanization effects, Peterson et al., 1998), by low-frequency differences between lowland
(Sofia) and mountainous (PIMO) temperatures, or by end-effects
in the low-frequency time-series caused by the selected smoothing function (D'arrigo et al., 2008).
Despite the reduced correspondence between instrumental and
reconstructed temperatures since the 1970s on an interdecadal
scale, potentially because of overly sensitive smoothing of the
data, warm as well as cool events throughout the instrumental
period are well represented in our reconstruction on an interannual scale. Several of the warm extremes in our reconstruction
correspond to years of extreme droughts in the Bulgarian lowlands (amongst others 1928, 1945, 2000; Koleva and Alexandrov,
2008) and to heat waves in Serbia (amongst others 1952, 1994,
and 2003; Unkasevic and Tosci, 2009). The 1959 and 1976 cold
extremes correspond to extremely cool summers throughout the
Mediterranean (Xoplaki et al., 2003b).
It is worth noting that this same year 1976 was one of the driest summers on record in Central and Western Europe (Zaidman
et al., 2002), and in the British Isles in particular (Jones and Conway, 1997). An explanation for this seeming discrepancy can be
found in Figure 4a, which shows a seesaw pattern between summer temperature variability in the Balkans versus northwestern
Europe. A similar pattern can be found when comparing summer
precipitation patterns over both regions (Figure 4b) and is associated with a prominent, zonally organized atmospheric circulation
pattern with strongly opposing geopotential height nodes over the
British Isles and the Balkans and a third centre over the Azores
(Figure 4c). This pattern strongly resembles the sNAO pattern,
described by Barnston and Livezey, (1987) as the dominant mode
of North Atlantic variability and the primary driver of European
summer precipitation variability (Zveryaev and Allan, 2010).
When the sNAO is in a negative mode, a low centered over the
British Isles is accompanied by convection and cloud formation,
whereas a warm high over the northeastern Mediterranean leads
to increased stability, clear skies, and maximum insolation. At the
upper levels (300–500 hPa), this configuration facilitates a strong
Polar Front Jet and anomalous northeasterly to easterly flow that
brings warm continental air masses to the Mediterranean. At the
surface level, the high pressure system over the eastern Mediterranean gives way to the British Isles Low. This cyclonic pattern is
the most frequent summer circulation pattern in the Eastern
Mediterranean (Kostopoulou and Jones, 2007) and it favours
warm winds from North Africa and the Sahara desert (Maheras
and Kutiel, 1999). High summer temperatures in the Balkans during this negative phase can thus be contributed to a combination
of subsidence, anomalous easterly, continental flow at upper levels, and increased advection of warm air coming from North
Africa (Xoplaki et al., 2003a). During a positive sNAO mode,
opposite conditions occur and a ridge over the British Isles coincides with a trough over the northeastern Mediterranean, resulting
in anomalously cool summers in the Balkans.
A comparison of PIMO with reconstructed fields of temperature, precipitation, and geopotential height shows that teleconnections of the northeastern Mediterranean climate with the
previously described atmospheric circulation pattern were stable
on interannual scales over the last ~ 240 years (Figure 5d–f).
PIMO is positively related to temperature reconstructions in the
Balkans, Southern and Central Italy, and Western Turkey, whereas
opposing temperature variability patterns are manifested over the
British Isles, southern Scandinavia, and the Western European
North Sea and Atlantic Coast. This spatial pattern is mimicked in
a correlation map of PIMO with other MXD tree-ring records
over Europe (Figure 6a). PIMO shows similar temporal variability patterns as other MXD records throughout the Balkans, Italy,
and even Romania and Poland and the similarity is particularly
strong for the three other PIHE records from Greece and Italy.
The majority of MXD records from the UK and southern Scandinavia are in anti-phase with PIMO and it thus comes as no surprise that PIMO correlates negatively with a sNAO reconstruction
based on two of these records (Figure 6b). The relationship
between the two reconstructions confirms the sNAO pattern as
the main driver of the teleconnection between summer temperatures in southeastern versus northwestern Europe and this teleconnection is most pronounced on interannual (rather than
decadal or lower frequency) timescales. It is unlikely that this
lack of low-frequency correspondence is an artefact of the reconstruction method, because the two reconstructions were detrended
using similar negative exponential functions which preserve
decadal-scale variability and both of them calibrate well against
instrumental targets on interannual as well as decadal scales (Figure 3a and Folland et al., 2009).
The influence of the sNAO on Sofia summer temperature
appears to be stable in time, with the exception of the period
between ~1795 and 1830. PIMO shows a decrease in EPS during
this period (Figure 3b), which might explain reduced coherence
with the sNAO. Also Linderholm et al. (2009) found a weakening
of the relationship between the sNAO record and a summer
drought record for east-central Sweden prior to 1835. Folland et
al. (2009)’s reconstruction shows extremely negative sNAO values for the period 1790–1810 and they found a loss of coherency
between the sNAO and summer temperature records in England
and Stockholm over this time period (Folland et al., 2009). The
two decades following this period were characterized by long and
cold winters in Bulgaria (Nikolva, 2004) and are well-documented as also having been anomalously cold throughout Europe
(Battipaglia et al., 2010; Büntgen et al., 2006) owing to extraordinary volcanic activity (Cole-Dai et al., 2009). The eruption of the
Krakatau volcano in Indonesia in 1883 (Self and Rampino, 1981)
is also marked by an anomalously narrow ring in the following
year in the PIMO reconstruction. It is possible that external, volcanic forcing overrides sNAO influence causing temperatures
during the 1810s to be anomalously cold in southeastern as well
as in northwestern Europe. It is likely that other periods of reduced
coherency between PIMO and the sNAO record (e.g. the 1920s)
are related to strong external forcing or to the dominant influence
of different atmospheric circulation patterns (D'Arrigo and Wilson, 2006; Greatbatch and Rong, 2006). The strong relationship
between tree-ring records from the Balkans and the British Isles
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The Holocene 22(8)
suggests that the development of a sNAO reconstruction based on
a network of tree-ring data that reflect this teleconnection pattern
is feasible on interannual timescales. The coherence between teleconnected records, however, is less reliable on lower (decadal to
centennial) timescales and caution should be advised for the interpretation of this teleconnection pattern on decadal to centennial
timescales.
Conclusion
Here we present a MXD-based summer temperature reconstruction for the Central Balkans extending back to 1768. The climatic
signal in MXD measurements of PIHE trees growing at highelevation Mediterranean sites is strong and distinct compared
with TRW measurements from the same trees and this parameter
is therefore recommended for tree-ring based temperature reconstructions for these areas. Our summer temperature reconstruction calibrates well over the instrumental period and reliably
reflects region-wide temperature variability back to the late 18th
century. Furthermore, a teleconnection pattern between summer
temperatures in southeastern versus northwestern Europe is
revealed in this paper. This teleconnection pattern is persistent
over approximately the last two centuries and can be linked to the
summer NAO pattern. However, strong external climatic forcing
(e.g. volcanic activity in the 1810s) appears to over-ride this teleconnection pattern. Given the longevity of PIHE trees in the Balkans (up to 1000 years in Bulgaria and Albania), temperature
reconstructions based on this species could shed light on the climate dynamics (external versus internal forcing) behind largescale climate transition periods such as the ‘Medieval Climate
Anomaly’–‘Little Ice Age’ transition in the 14th–15th centuries.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to U Buentgen and K Treydte, for helpful
comments and F Schweingruber for his data contribution. For assistance in the field we thank F Herzig, N Nikolova, M Russeva,
W Tegel, N Tsvetanov, and J Van Moerkerke. We also thank Pirin
National Park administration for providing permission to work in
Bunderitsa valley.
Funding
This study was supported by MedCLIVAR, by NCCR Climate, University of Forestry project 115/2008, Velux Foundation Project 414,
and project DTK 02/2/2010 of the National Science Fund of Bulgaria.
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