Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 3055–3062 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Expert Systems with Applications journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/eswa Selecting a small number of products for effective user profiling in collaborative filtering Hyung Jun Ahn *, Hyunjeong Kang, Jinpyo Lee College of Business Administration, Hongik University, 72-1 Sangsu-Dong, Mapo-gu, Seoul 121-791, Republic of Korea a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Collaborative filtering Product selection User profiling Information theory a b s t r a c t Collaborative filtering (CF) is one of the most widely used methods for personalized product recommendation at online stores. CF predicts users’ preferences on products using past data of users such as purchase records or their ratings on products. The prediction is then used for personalized recommendation so that products with highly estimated preference for each user are selected and presented. One of the most difficult issues in using CF is that it is often hard to collect sufficient amount of data for each user to estimate preferences accurately enough. In order to address this problem, this research studies how we can gain the most information about each user by collecting data on a very small number of selected products, and develops a method for choosing a sequence of such products tailored to each user based on metrics from information theory and correlation-based product similarity. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is tested using experiments with the MovieLens dataset. Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Many Internet stores and shopping malls provide personalized recommendation services to help customers find products and information easily for efficient shopping. Unlike the early days of electronic commerce when only a small number of businesses used such personalization techniques, now not only major Internet stores but also many smaller ones in diverse sectors provide such services in many different ways. The personalization services typically recommend products of potential interests to users whenever a product is clicked, purchased, or put into a shopping cart. Many stores also provide separate personal pages customized to each user where all relevant information, advertisements, and products are presented to users based on estimated users’ preferences. There are a variety of methods used for personalized recommendation, and one of the most popular ones is collaborative filtering (CF) (Ahn, 2006; Cohen & Fan, 2000; Greco, Greco, & Zumpano, 2004; Herlocker, Konstan, Terveen, & Riedl, 2004; Konstan et al., 1997). CF uses customers’ past purchasing records or their ratings on products to calculate similarity between customers. The calculation is then used to find similar users to a given user, and their ratings on a given product are used to estimate the preference of the given user for the given product. That is to say, CF recommends the products that have been highly rated or purchased often by those who are similar to the given user. * Corresponding author. Tel.: +82 2 320 1730; fax: +82 2 322 2293. E-mail address: [email protected] (H.J. Ahn). 0957-4174/$ - see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2009.09.025 The effectiveness of CF has been proven by many studies and there are many cases of successful adoption of CF in practice such as by Amazon.com (Cohen & Fan, 2000; Greco et al., 2004; Herlocker et al., 2004; Konstan et al., 1997; Lee, Kim, & Choi, 2003; Vezina & Militaru, 2004), but there are some limitations and problems. Among the shortcomings, this paper addresses the difficulty of collecting sufficient ratings data for each user for effective recommendation (Cylogy, 2005; Maltz & Ehrlich, 1995; Middleton, Alani, Shadbolt, & De Roure, 2002). This is a significant problem because, in practice, it is usually costly and difficult to collect sufficient data for all users. For example, there are always a large portion of new or inactive customers, and it is usually very disruptive to users to force them to rate many products. There have been some studies that have tackled this issue by, for instance, using additional content-related information of products to supplement the insufficient data (Huang, Chen, & Zeng, 2004; Li & Kim, 2003; Park, Pennock, Madani, Good, & DeCoste, 2006; Salter & Antonopoulos, 2006; Schein, Popescul, Ungar, & Pennock, 2002), or improving the similarity measure of CF for the cold-start conditions (Ahn, 2008). Different from these approaches, this research aims to develop methods of selecting a sequence of a small number of products about which ratings data will be collected for each user. The sequence will be different for each user, and hence needs to be tailored to each user, depending on whether and how each user rates products presented to them. By doing so, we can help Internet stores gain more information about users with less disruption to them. The methods are developed using many measures from information theory and correlation-based product similarity. The methods are tested with experiments using 3056 H.J. Ahn et al. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 3055–3062 the MovieLens dataset which has ratings on many movies by many users. This paper is organized as follows: in Section 2, a brief review of related work is presented. Section 3 presents the product selection methods. Section 4 presents the details of the experiments along with the discussion of the results. Section 5 presents the summary and the conclusion. 2. Review of related work 2.1. Personalized recommendation There have been numerous studies on recommender systems which can be classified into two types: ones that develop and test new recommendation methods, and the others that investigate empirically the factors affecting the usefulness of recommendation systems, or the effects of using recommendation systems on consumer purchasing processes. Regarding the first type of research, we can further classify the methods developed so far very broadly into collaborative filtering and content-based filtering methods. The biggest difference between the two is the type of data used for recommendation (Burke, 2002). CF systems typically use ratings data or purchasing records for calculating the similarity between users or products to estimate preferences of each user (Ahn, 2006; Konstan et al., 1997; Linden, Smith, & York, 2003; Resnick, Iacovou, Suchak, Bergstrom, & Riedl, 1994). On the other hand, content-based methods use content data such as product description or keywords to find the match between users and products (Adomavicius, Sankaranarayanan, Sen, & Tuzhilin, 2005; Ahn & Kim, 2006; Kim, Yum, Song, & Kim, 2005; Li, Lu, & Xuefeng, 2005; Melville, Mooney, & Nagarajan, 2002; Mirzadeh, Ricci, & Bansal, 2005). In general, CF systems that use users’ rating data are known to produce better results. More detailed classification and the reviews of recommender systems can be found in (Adomavicius & Tuzhilin, 2005; Burke, 2002). The empirical studies focus on the impacts of recommender systems on customer behavior, or finding the factors that influence the usefulness of recommender systems for users, usually through experiments using real or experimental Internet stores and human participants. For example, the study by Komiak and Benbasat studied the impacts of personalization and familiarity on the effectiveness of recommendation systems using a virtual shopping experiment for products such as notebook computers and desktop PCs (Komiak & Benbasat, 2006). The study by Tam (2006) also investigated how personalization affects the cognitive processes and decision making of customers with experiments involving human participants buying PDAs and downloading music files (Tam, 2006). A very comprehensive review on this type of studies can be found in the work by Xiao and Benbasat (2007). This study is based on the widely studied CF method that specifically uses the similarity between users for product recommendation. There are other variations of the CF method including the ones that use the similarity between products instead (Sarwar, Karypis, Konstan, & Riedl, 2001), where a recommendation is made for the products that bear more similarity to the products that have been preferred by the given user in the past. There are also many hybrid systems that combine the strengths of more than one method such as those that use both ratings data and content information. More on various hybrid systems can be found in Burke (2002). have cold-starting and data sparsity problems, where the former refers to the difficulty of recommending new products or to new users, and the latter the impaired performance under the sparsity of the < user product > rating matrix. There have been many approaches to these problems, the most notable of which is to develop hybrid recommendation systems that use the content information of products and/or customers together with the insufficient ratings data to circumvent the difficulties (Huang et al., 2004; Li & Kim, 2003; Park et al., 2006; Salter & Antonopoulos, 2006; Schein et al., 2002). There was also a study that tried to improve the performance of CF systems under cold-start conditions by devising a new similarity measure for CF (Ahn, 2008). This study is also related with the general issue of cold-starting, but its approach is different from the above studies in that it focuses on finding out which products can give us most additional information about each customer, while the cold-start studies try to use various types of available information more effectively to complement the insufficient data. Another group of studies that are related with this work are those that present instance selection methods (Yu, Xu, Ester, & Kriegel, 2003; Zeng, Xing, Zhou, & Zheng, 2004). The studies develop techniques to reduce the size of datasets used for recommendation by selecting a certain subset of it mainly in order to reduce the memory requirement for recommendation, speed the processing, or to improve the accuracy of recommendation. Although these studies provide some useful insights, the focus of this study is very different in that this work aims to find the products with which we can gain maximum information about each user, while the instance selection studies are concerned with reducing the amount of the data we already have for improving recommendation performance. 2.3. Information theory Information theory is a branch of mathematics originally developed for the field of electronic communication in order to quantify information so that many properties of communications such as transmission rates, data capacity, and communication reliability could be calculated effectively (MacKay, 2003; Reza, 1994). Information theory provides definitions on various metrics of information which can be very useful for this study as well. The most important metric of information theory for this study is the entropy which measures the amount of uncertainty associated with a probability variable. The entropy of a probability variable X is defined as follows: HðXÞ ¼ E½IðXÞ ¼ X pðxÞ log pðxÞ; x where IðXÞ is the amount of information of X, also called the selfinformation of X. This can be extended to define a conditional entropy HðXjY ¼ yÞ of X given an outcome y of a probability variable Y as follows: HðXjY ¼ yÞ ¼ E½IðXjY ¼ yÞ ¼ X pðxjY ¼ yÞ log pðxjY ¼ yÞ: x The entropy and conditional entropy measures introduced above are used in this study to estimate the amount of information about a user we can gain by acquiring the rating of some product by the user. 3. Effective selection of products for user profiling 2.2. Cold-staring and data sparsity 3.1. Research objective Despite the popularity of CF systems, it is well known that CF systems do not perform well when there are insufficient users’ ratings on products. More specifically, CF systems have been found to As we have seen in the review, personalization based on CF cannot effectively work and produce accurate prediction about H.J. Ahn et al. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 3055–3062 user preferences without sufficient data. Moreover, collecting users’ ratings on products is often difficult because customers may regard the process of rating many products disrupting or even breaching privacy. Therefore, the goal of this research is to investigate how we can gain as much information as possible about customers with minimum inconvenience to users by asking customers to provide their preferences on only a small number of reference products. More formally, the objective of the research is: To develop methods of selecting a small number of products sequentially for each user so that we can collect and use the user’s ratings on the products for effective personalized recommendation of products based on the CF method. Readers should note that the sequence is different for different users because the selection of a product for a user is dependent upon the products the user has already rated and the user’s ratings on them. 3.2. Overview of the research method and measure components The goal of this research can be translated into creating a method with which we can select a product that provides most additional information about a given user. Using the terms of the information theory, this approach can be described simply as the diagram in Fig. 1. Suppose that the user has already rated k products ðMk Þ and we have Ik amount of information about the given user (the left side of Fig. 1). The question is how to select the next product mkþ1 among the product candidates (the right side of Fig. 1) in order to maximize the amount of information Ikþ1 . We can formally describe this approach as follows. First, Ik , the self information from some user’s ratings on k products, can be written as: Ik ¼ Iðr m1 ¼ v 1 ; rm2 ¼ v 2 ; . . . ; rmk ¼ v k Þ, where rmk is the variable representing the user’s rating on mk , and v 1 ; v 2 ; . . . ; v k 2 W are values within the rating scale W. Therefore, the objective is to find the next product, mkþ1 , that can maximize the additional information: Ikþ1 Ik : Here, the additional information can be written as: Ikþ1 Ik ¼ X pðr mkþ1 ¼ wjr m1 ¼ v 1 ; r m2 ¼ v 2 ; . . . ; r mk ¼ v k Þ Hence, we can see that the objective of the research is formally summarized as finding mkþ1 for each user that maximizes the conditional entropy given Mk for the user, that is: mkþ1 ¼ arg max Hðr m0 jM k Þ m0 Therefore, this approach can be most effectively implemented if the conditional entropy of a candidate product m0 could be found. However, in practice, in order to calculate the conditional entropy Hðrm0 jM k Þ, we need to be able to estimate the joint probabilities for all possible combinations of ratings on k þ 1 products from the sample ratings data, which is often practically infeasible due to data insufficiency. For example, when we have 1000 movies with the ratings in integers between 1 and 5, for k ¼ 3, we need to estimate the 1000! 54 2:59 1013 combijoint probabilities for 1000 C 4 54 ¼ 4!ð10004Þ! nations to compute the conditional entropies. Considering these constraints, we indirectly develop heuristic methods using the following components and their combinations: – Component 1: We can use marginal entropies instead. That is, P Hðrm0 Þ ¼ w2W pðrm0 ¼ wÞlog2 pðrm0 ¼ wÞ is used for choosing products, assuming that ratings on products with high entropies will, on average, give more information about the user. – Component 2: Because it is difficult to estimate Hðr mkþ1 jM k Þ, use Hðrmkþ1 jrmi ¼ v i Þ instead ði ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; kÞ. We can easily estimate Hðrmkþ1 jrmi ¼ v i Þ from sample data. – Component 3: We can use the distance between products. That is, we can assume that products with larger distance with a given set of products will provide more additional information compared with those that are closer to the given products. We will use the Pearson’s correlation as the distance measure between products. In addition to the above, we can also utilize the level of exposure of each product: – Component 4: The level of exposure of each product can be utilized since, with other conditions equal, products with higher exposure can be more useful in finding similar customers to a given one, which is important since the CF method estimates the preference of a given user based on the similarity. We denote the level of exposure of a product m0 as w2W log2 pðrmkþ1 ¼ wjr m1 ¼ v 1 ; r m2 ¼ v 2 ; . . . ; r mk ¼ v k Þ: For simplicity, we let Mk denote the user u’s ratings on the k products as: M k ¼ hr m1 ¼ v 1 ; r m2 ¼ v 2 ; . . . ; r mk ¼ v k i: Now, the additional information can also be re-written simply as: X Ikþ1 Ik ¼ pðr mkþ1 ¼ wjMk Þlog2 pðr mkþ1 ¼ wjMk Þ ¼ Hðr mkþ1 jM k Þ: w2W 3057 eðm0 Þ ¼ # of users who rated m0 : total # of users 3.3. Selecting the first products Selecting the first product for a user is relatively easy because, in this case, we do not have to consider the relationship between already-chosen products and a candidate product for estimating the additional amount of information. Therefore, the following methods that combine the components were used to choose the first products. A. ENT method: The first product m1 is selected such that m1 is the product with the largest entropy. That is, m1 ¼ arg max Hðr m0 Þ m0 B. EXP method: The first product m1 is selected such that m1 is the product with the largest exposure. That is, m1 ¼ arg max eðm0 Þ m0 Fig. 1. Overview of the research method. C. ENTEXP method: The product of ENT and EXP is used. That is, 3058 H.J. Ahn et al. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 3055–3062 m1 ¼ arg max½Hðrm0 Þ eðm0 Þ 3.5. Random choice m0 D. ENT+EXP method: The sum of ENT and EXP is used. That is, 0 m1 ¼ arg max½Hðrm0 Þ þ eðm Þ m0 3.4. Selecting products after the first product From the second product on, we should consider the products that have already been rated by a user for additional information. Using the components introduced in Section 3.2, the following methods were used for selecting the products from the second product: A. Average Conditional Entropy (ACE) method: The product with the largest average conditional entropy for alreadyselected products is chosen. In other words, a product is selected if it can give, on average, the most additional information to each of the already-selected products. That is, Pk mkþ1 ¼ arg max i¼1 Hðr m0 jr mi ¼ v iÞ k m0 : B. ENT method: The marginal entropies of each product are used as they are. That is, Pk mkþ1 ¼ arg max i¼1 Hðr m0 Þ k m0 : C. COR method (using Pearson’s correlation): The Pearson’s correlation among products is used as a measure of the distance between the products. The distance is formally defined P ðr u;mi r mi Þðr u;mj r mj Þ pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi u2U pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi P as: Distðmi ; mj Þ ¼ 1 P , where 2 2 ðr u;mi r mi Þ ðr u;mj r mj Þ u2U u2U ru;mi is the rating of user u on product mi ; r mi is the average rating on product mi by all users, and U is the set of all users who have rated both mi and mj . Therefore, using the average distance with k products, mkþ1 ¼ arg max m0 k 1X Distðmi ; m0 Þ: k i¼1 D. Largest Minimum Correlation Distance (LMC) method: Similar to the COR method, the correlation distance is used, but this time, the maximum of the minimum distances among a candidate product and already-chosen products is used. That is, only the minimum correlation distance (MCD) between a candidate product and already-selected ones is considered, and the candidate product which has the largest MCD is selected assuming that the product has the least similarity with already-selected products. Hence, mkþ1 ¼ arg maxðminfDistðmi ; m0 Þji ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; kgÞ: m0 i E. LMC+E method: The sum of LMC and exposure is used. That is, mkþ1 ¼ arg maxðminfDistðmi ; m0 Þji ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; kg þ eðm0 ÞÞ: m0 i A random choice method was used as a baseline strategy for comparison with the methods introduced so far. Although readers may regard the random method as quite an ineffective one, it might perform well as k increases, because it can evenly choose random products without any possible bias. 3.6. Collaborative filtering For the recommendation experiments using the product selection methods presented so far, among many variations of the CF method, this paper uses the user-based CF method, which predicts the preference of a given user based on those of similar users. The prediction of the rating on product i by user u is made using the following formula (Ahn, 2008; Konstan et al., 1997): r0u;i ¼ ru þ P t2T simðu; tÞðr t;i P rt Þ t2T jsimðu; tÞj ; ð1Þ where r u is the average rating of user u on all products, simðu; tÞ is the similarity between user u and t, and T is the set of all reference users. There are several similarity measures applicable to the above formula such as the traditional Pearson’s correlation or cosine (Herlocker et al., 2004; Konstan et al., 1997). However, a recent study has proposed a new measure called PIP which shows much better performance when the number of available ratings is very small (Ahn, 2008). PIP measures the similarity even with a very limited number of co-ratings effectively based on the three factors of similarity: proximity, impact, and popularity. This study also uses PIP for most of the experiments. Readers are referred to the original article for more about PIP, because repeating the details of it here is redundant. For the measure of prediction accuracy, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between predicted and actual ratings was used (Herlocker et al., 2004). 4. Experiments 4.1. Overview of the experiments In order to test the effectiveness of the suggested methods, a series of experiments were performed using a subset of the widely-used MovieLens dataset that contains ratings on movies by many users. The ratings are in the scale of 1–5, where 5 represents the strongest preference, and 1 the least. Table 1 summarizes the details of the dataset used for the experiments. Table 2 summarizes the experiments that use the methods introduced in Section 3. Broadly, the experiments are of three types, h1i selecting the first products denoted as Best 1 selection, h2i selecting next products after the first ones, denoted as Best K selection, and h3i comparing the use of two similarity measures, PIP and COR. Also seen in the table is that experiments with random selection are performed together with each experiment for comparison. Except for the last experiment, the PIP measure was used for all the experiments. In each of the experiments, randomly chosen 80% of the movies were used for similarity calculation (profiling or learning movies) F. EXP method: Simply, the product with the largest exposure is selected. That is, mkþ1 ¼ arg max eðm0 Þ m0 In addition to the above, more combinations and hybrids were tried, but, for simplicity and readability, only those with better or illustrative results are presented in the paper. Table 1 Description of the dataset. Name Description Figures Availability MovieLens dataset (MovieLens, 2005) Ratings of movies by anonymous users in scale of 1–5 100,000 ratings by 943 users on 1682 movies Available at http://www.grouplens.org/ 3059 H.J. Ahn et al. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 3055–3062 Table 2 List of the experiments. ENT Experiments Selection methods Short description h1i Best 1 selection methods ENT EXP ENT EXP ENT + EXP Rand Entropy only Exposure only Entropy multiplied by exposure Entropy plus exposure Random h2i Best K selection methods ACE ENT COR LMC LMC + E EXP Rand Average conditional entropy Entropy only Correlation distance Largest minimum correlation distance LMC plus exposure Exposure only Random The best methods from the previous experiments Two CF methods, one using PIP for user similarity and the other using Pearson’s correlation h3i PIP versus COR Best 1 selection 0.83 and twenty for recommendation candidates (test movies). Similarly, randomly chosen 80% of the users were used as reference users (learning users) and recommendation was made to the remaining 20% (test users). All the experiments were repeated 20 times for all the movies and users, each time selecting different subsets of data for learning and testing. For those methods that use entropy, many sample probabilities need to be pre-calculated for efficient experiments. Hence, about 6700 marginal probabilities pðrk ¼ xÞ and 420,000 conditional probabilities pðrk ¼ xjrl ¼ yÞ were prepared before the experiments. 4.2. Best 1 selection Before presenting the result of the experiments, it needs to be explained first how the average user ratings should be calculated in the experiments in predicting the user ratings with formula (1). When there are only a very small number of ratings available for each user which is the case in these experiments, if we use only the available ratings for calculating the average rating for each user, it will be heavily biased by the small number of ratings. Therefore, a smoothed average r0u for each user u was used instead: P k Þ ; where a P 0 is a constant, r is r 0u ¼ a r þ k r þ 1k k ðr u;k q k is the average the average rating of all users for all products, and q rating on product k by all users. Here, we can see easily that larger values of a will make the smoothed average rely more on the global average, and vice versa. In order to find the proper value of a, many experiments were performed with different values of a (see the Appendix A), and it was observed that a ¼ 5 produces a good result. Hence, a ¼ 5 was used for all the experiments. Prediction Accuracy in MAE EXP ENT+EXP 0.82 ENTxEXP Rand 0.81 0.8 0.79 Fig. 3. Comparing the Best 1 selection methods. Next, in order to give a basic understanding about the data, Fig. 2 shows the distribution of the exposure and entropy for all the movies. As can be seen, most of the movies are exposed to less than 10% of the users, and only a very small number of movies are exposed to more than 20%. For the entropy, many movies have entropy values around 2.0, but there are also many movies that have significantly larger or smaller entropy values. An entropy value of 2 of a movie implies that the rating of a user for the movie can give us on average two bits of information about the user. The correlation between the exposure and the entropy of the movies was found to be small (0.1416). Fig. 3 shows the result of the Best 1 selection experiments. As can be seen, the ENT + EXP method was found to be the most effective method of selecting the first products. Along with ENT + EXP, ENT EXP also shows a good result in comparison with the random selection. However, using the entropy alone shows worse performance than the random method, which implies that exposure should also be taken into account in the selection because, regardless of entropy values, movies with low exposure might not be very useful in finding reference users for the recommendation. Next, in order to give readers some idea on which movies are selected using each of the four methods, Table 3 shows the three movies that are most likely to be selected by each method. We can see that each method produces different sets of movies, and also that ENT + EXP and ENT EXP produce different but similar movies. The table also shows the average entropies and exposures of the movies that are selected as the first movie for all the users by each method. Fig. 2. Distribution of exposure and entropy. 3060 H.J. Ahn et al. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 3055–3062 Table 3 Examples movies selected by each method. ENT EXP ENT + EXP ENT EXP First Second Third Average entropy Average exposure Lost highway Star wars Liar Liar Liar Liar Natural born killers Contact Scream Scream Evita Return of the Jedi Independence Day Contact 2.20636 1.680647 2.09814 2.03305 0.204127 0.581351 0.481743 0.51224 Table 4 Pair-wise t-tests for the comparison of performances of LMC and Rand. LMC Rand t-Value The degree of * Significant ** Significant *** Significant K=1 K=2 K=3 K=4 0.8099 0.8295 5.3278*** 0.7974 0.8057 3.995 *** 0.7886 0.7926 1.8274** 0.7820 0.7847 1.4744* freedom = 19. at 0.90. at 0.95. at 0.99. Next, for the illustration of the actual selection of the movies by some of the distinctive methods, Table 5 shows the examples of the selection process for k ¼ 4. For the ACE method, based on the ratings already collected for the three movies, The English Patient, Contact, and Independence Day, the average conditional entropies are calculated for the three candidate movies, Bonnie and Clyde, Fargo, and Ransom. As the result, Fargo is selected since it has the largest ACE value. In the case of COR, George of the Jungle is selected because it has the largest average correlation distance from the movies, The English Patient, Jerry Maguire, and Ben-Hur. Lastly, the LMC method selects 2001: A Space Odyssey which has the largest minimum distance with the three movies. 4.4. PIP versus correlation Fig. 4. Comparing the Best K selection methods. The last experiment shows how the proposed methods perform when used with correlation, not PIP in calculating the user similarity for the CF method. The best performing Best 1 and Best K selection methods, ENT + EXP and LMC, respectively, were used again in the experiments. As can be seen in Figs. 5 and 6, the use of correlation shows significantly worse performance than the use of PIP. Also, the performance of using the selection methods with correlation is even worse than using the random selection with correlation, although the difference is quite small, which can be due to the overall ill performance of correlation for very small number of available ratings. 4.3. Best K selection 4.5. Summary of the results and discussion Fig. 4 shows the result of the Best K selection experiments. Note that the experiments utilize the best result of the Best 1 experiment, ENT+EXP. The upper chart in Fig. 4 shows the results with all the selection methods, while the lower chart shows the results of only the two best performing methods, ENT, LMC, in comparison with the random selection. As we can see, ENT and LMC show better results than Rand until about k ¼ 4. COR also shows a good result for small numbers of k, but ACE or LMC+E does not appear to be effective. The random selection shows better performance than all the others from the point k ¼ 5, which implies that the random selection can also be a good strategy when we collect ratings on more than a certain number of products. Table 4 shows the result of the one-tailed pairwise t-tests to see the significance of the differences between LMC, the best performing method, and the random selection. We can see that all the differences are statistically significant. We can summarize the results of the experiments as follows. First, for constructing user profiles with a very limited number of products, the proposed methods proved to be effective. Second, although the random selection shows inferior results for a very small number of ratings, it shows good performance as more products are used. This can be due to the limitations of the proposed methods that might lead to accumulated bias as more and more products are selected by them. Third, for estimating the average user ratings for a small number of products, a smoothing method was proposed to estimate the averages effectively. Fourth, consistent with the previous study (Ahn, 2008), the PIP measure shows much better performance than correlation when only a limited number of ratings is available. The above results have the following practical implications. First, it showed that it is possible to gain more information for effective recommendation by, together with adopting the PIP 3061 H.J. Ahn et al. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 3055–3062 Table 5 Example movies selected by ACE, COR, and LMC methods (CE = conditional entropy, CD = correlation distance). ACE COR LMC Movies already rated for k ¼ 3hai Movies considered for k ¼ 4hbi Score for each pair of hai and hbi Overall score The English Patient (r=5) Contact (r = 5) Independence day (r = 3) The English Patient (r = 5) Contact (r = 5) Independence day (r = 3) The English Patient (r = 5) Contact (r = 5) Independence day (r = 3) Bonnie and Clyde CE = 0.42956674 CE = 0.20270143 CE = 0.5128109 CE = 1.2319341 CE = 1.1928089 CE = 1.3904102 CE = 0.81961715 CE = 0.9822581 CE = 1.3260816 ACE = 0.38169304 The English Patient Jerry Maguire Ben-Hur The English Patient Jerry Maguire Ben-Hur The English Patient Jerry Maguire Ben-Hur Queen Margot CD = 0.45098275 CD = 0.7331273 CD = 0.24990857 CD = 0.67926437 CD = 0.71803486 CD = 0.61346614 CD = 0.9391285 CD = 0.9899691 CD = 0.9863818 Average of CDs = 0.47800618 The English Patient Jerry Maguire Ben-Hur The English Patient Jerry Maguire Ben-Hur The English Patient Jerry Maguire Ben-Hur Fargo Ransom Pretty woman George of the Jungle Brazil Othello 2001: a space Odyssey Fig. 5. Comparing correlation and PIP as the user similarity measure for the CF method. CD = 0.81344426 CD = 0.88023716 CD = 0.93532586 CD = 0.7192551 CD = 0.9487815 CD = 0.3709597 CD = 0.9003594 CD = 0.9641372 CD = 0.90802217 ACE = 1.2717177 ACE = 1.0426522 Average of CDs = 0.6702552 Average of CDs = 0.9718265 LMC = 0.81344426 LMC = 0.3709597 LMC = 0.9003594 measure, requiring users to rate on a very small number of carefully chosen products. Because users are often very reluctant to provide personal information to Internet stores, the suggested method can be used effectively to gain more information with minimum user disturbance. For example, through a promotion campaign on a web page, we can ask customers to provide ratings on a very small number of products sequentially, and use the result for recommending products. Second, the same idea can be applied to other e-business areas such as portals and social communities so that we can again analyze the preferences and interests of users with minimum disruption, in which case, different modeling of the items and users may be needed though. There are also limitations of this study. First, the effectiveness of the suggested methods has yet to be proven for other Internet stores or products. Therefore, care should be taken in generalizing the results and applying the methods to other areas. Second, since the previous literature showed that the use of correlation for user similarity in CF outperforms PIP when a larger number of ratings are available (e.g. when k ¼ 11 15), the use of correlation also Fig. 6. Finding the appropriate value of a. 3062 H.J. Ahn et al. / Expert Systems with Applications 37 (2010) 3055–3062 needs to be considered when applying the selection methods of this paper to similar situations. 5. Conclusion This paper presented novel methods of selecting a sequence of a small number of products for each user which can be used to construct user profiles effectively for the CF-based product recommendation. The method developed many measures of product characteristics and diversity based on the concepts of entropy, exposure, and correlation distance, which were used individually or in combination to select different products for different users. The effectiveness of the methods was tested and proved using experiments with the MovieLens dataset. The main contribution of this research can be summarized as follows: First, to the authors’ knowledge, this research addressed the very practical problem of selecting the sequence of a small number of products for user profiling for the first time. Second, the paper showed that using the entropy, exposure, and correlation distance of movies together with the PIP measure can lead to improved user profiling while requiring ratings only on a small number of products. Although there are limitations of the study already discussed in Section 4, the authors believe that carefully applying the proposed methods to many Internet stores can give practical benefits to them in improving their personalized product recommendation. There are some interesting further research issues as well. First, the method needs to be applied and tested under more diverse circumstances to see whether the results can be generalized or how the results might vary. Second, rather than using a dataset, we can experiment the proposed methods empirically involving human participants to test its performance under a more realistic setting. 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