Report - Electoral Commission

Local Elections in England
May 2014
(including Mayoral elections)
Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher
September 2014
Elections Centre
Plymouth University
Drake Circus
Plymouth
PL4 8AA
Summary

Local elections were held for just over 4,200 seats in 161 authorities in
England. The whole council was elected in 32 London boroughs, two
unitary authorities and two district councils. In 36 metropolitan
boroughs, 17 unitary authorities and 65 districts one third of the council
was elected. In seven districts a half of council seats fell vacant.

Mayoral elections were held in five local authorities.

Almost 17,000 candidates contested the local elections, yielding a
candidate/seat ratio of 4.0 overall. Just seven councillors were elected
unopposed.

The 2014 local elections gave nearly 22.2 million registered electors
the opportunity to vote –about 56% of the total local government
electorate.

Some 7.91 million local election votes were counted in the ballot box,
making the overall turnout 35.7%.

The proportion of ballots that are rejected at the official count continues
to be small. In 2014 it was about one in every 150 votes cast.

Over 3.5 million postal votes were issued -15.8% of all those with a
contested election in their ward. In nine council areas more than 25%
of the electorate had a postal vote; in another 11 fewer than 10% did
so.

More than two thirds (69.5%) of those with a postal ballot returned it. In
contrast turnout among those required to vote ‘in person’ was just
30.0%.

The proportion of postal votes rejected or otherwise not included in the
count was 4.7%.

Rejection following a mismatch of signature and/or date of birth was
much more common than rejection for incomplete information.

In just under a third of these cases voters returned their postal voting
envelopes but failed to include either the ballot paper itself or the
verification statement or both.

Just under a half of one percent of electors with a postal vote were
granted a waiver to use their date of birth as their sole identifier.

Nearly 22,000 local electors (0.10% of the total electorate) appointed
proxies to act on their behalf.

The turnout of both in person and postal voters at Mayoral elections
was similar to that at the other contests held on the same day, but the
proportion of votes rejected at the count was rather higher.
1
Introduction
Local elections took place in 161 local authorities in England coincident with
the European Parliament elections on May 22 2014. The whole council was
elected in 32 London boroughs as well as in two unitary authorities and two
districts councils where boundary changes had been implemented since the
previous elections. In 36 metropolitan boroughs, 17 unitary authorities and 65
districts one third of the council was elected. In seven districts a half of council
seats fell vacant. In addition, there were Mayoral elections in Hackney,
Lewisham, Newham and Tower Hamlets in London, and in Watford.
Contestation
Local elections were scheduled in 2,884 wards with a total of 4,219 seats at
stake. Table 1 gives the breakdown of vacancies by type of authority. In
addition a number of casual vacancies were contested on the same day.
Table 1: Wards/seats falling vacant local elections 2014
Wards
Seats
London boroughs
Metropolitan boroughs
Unitary authorities
District councils
629
815
330
1,110
1,851
815
395
1,158
Total
2,884
4,219
A total of almost 17,000 candidates contested seats at the 2014 local
elections –an overall candidate/seat ratio of 4.0. The most competitive
elections were in the metropolitan boroughs with 4.5 candidates per vacancy;
in London the ratio was 3.8:1. In just seven wards (three in the metropolitan
boroughs, and two each in the unitaries and districts) were candidates elected
unopposed.
Electorate
The local elections in 2014 gave nearly 22.2 million registered electors the
opportunity to vote. More than 55% of the total electorate in England had an
election in their area. At least 27,500 people tried to register after the closing
date and some 4,500 were recorded as trying to vote on election day itself
despite not being registered1. Local election votes were cast at over 14,900
polling stations as well as by post.
Turnout
Across the country some 7.91 million local votes were counted at the ballot
box, making the overall aggregate turnout 35.7%. Taking into account those
who tried to vote but had their postal vote returns rejected, the level of
participation rises to 36.2%. In Table 2 and subsequently we use the term
1
Not all local authorities were able to supply this information.
2
‘valid vote turnout’ to refer to calculations based simply on the number of valid
votes cast; ‘ballot box turnout’ to refer to calculations taking into account valid
votes plus those which were considered but rejected at the count; and ‘total
turnout’ to refer to calculations which take into account valid votes, those
rejected at the count and those rejected at the postal ballot verification stage.
Table 2 also breaks this figure down by the type of local authority. Turnout
was highest in London and lowest in the metropolitan boroughs.
Table 2. Turnout at English local elections 2014
Total turnout including
rejected postal votes
Votes counted
in ballot box
Valid vote turnout
Total
36.2
35.7
35.5
London bors
Met bors
Unitaries
District councils
38.9
34.1
34.6
37.4
38.5
33.5
34.0
36.9
38.2
33.3
33.8
36.6
Comparisons with the same point in the electoral cycle in 2010 are not
appropriate because those local elections coincided with the general election.
In Table 3, however, we do compare 2014 with the cycle before that in 2006
as well as with intervening years. Although a different range of councils has
elections in each year, this year’s turnout sits comfortably within the normal
range and is much above that recorded in either 2012 or 2013.
Table 3. Turnout at English local elections 2007-2014*
Total turnout
2014
2013
2012
2011
2009
2008
2007
2006
36.2
31.2
31.5
42.7
39.7
35.5
38.3
n/a
Ballot box turnout
35.7
30.9
31.0
42.0
39.3
35.1
38.1
n/a
Valid vote turnout
35.5
30.8
30.8
41.6
39.1
35.0
37.9
36.5
*Elections in 2010 are excluded because of their clash with the 2010 general election. The local elections in 2011 were
held on the same day as a referendum on the parliamentary voting system.
Naturally, there are variations from the mean when turnout is examined at the
local authority level as set out in Table 4. The highest turnouts were among the
London boroughs and district councils; no unitary or metropolitan authority
registered a turnout of 40% or more. The lowest placed councils in each
category saw scarcely three in ten electors voting. Tower Hamlets topped the
turnout table overall with 48.8%; Kingston upon Hull brought up the rear with
26.8%. At the level of wards, the highest recorded turnout can be three times
larger than that of the lowest in each type of authority. In 48 cases did turnout
at this level exceed 50%; in five cases it was less than 20%.
3
Table 4. Highest and lowest % ‘ballot box’ turnouts by local authority 2014
Local authority
Highest
Lowest
London boroughs
Tower Hamlets
Richmond upon Thames
Kingston upon Thames
48.8
46.0
43.1
Westminster
Kensington and Chelsea
Hounslow
32.3
30.2
28.2
39.8
38.0
37.5
Barnsley
Knowsley
Wigan
29.5
29.3
27.8
39.2
38.5
37.3
Halton
Hartlepool
Kingston upon Hull
29.2
27.2
26.8
47.1
45.1
44.8
Broxbourne
Lincoln
Cannock Chase
32.4
30.1
29.6
Metropolitan boroughs
Trafford
Bolton
Bradford
Unitaries
Wokingham
Blackburn with Darwen
Plymouth
Districts councils
South Lakeland
Purbeck
Mole Valley
Rejected ballots
As suggested by the modest differences between the turnout measures set
out in Table 2, only a small fraction of electors who tried to vote had their
ballot papers rejected. This can happen at one of two stages. Under the
provisions of the Electoral Administration Act 2006, postal voters must first
meet the statutory requirements for the documentation they return by
supplying personal identifiers in the form of their date of birth and signature
both when they apply for a postal vote and when they return a ballot paper.
Votes submitted by those whose details are deemed to match are then added
at the count to those of electors who have voted in person. At this stage votes
are checked against four criteria to determine their validity. The voter’s
intention should be clear; they should not have voted for more candidates or
parties than allowed at that election; they should not mark the ballot paper in
such a way that they can be personally identified; and the ballot paper itself
should contain the official mark.
Table 5. Rejected ballots as % of total included at count – local England
2001-14
2001 general election
2004 European/local elections
2005 general election
2006 local election
2007 local election
2008 local election
2009 local election
4
0.4
0.8
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.8
2009 European Parliament election
2010 general election
2010 local election
2011 local election
2011 AV referendum
2012 local election
2013 local election
2014 local election
2014 European Parliament election
0.7
0.3
0.6
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
Table 5 shows the proportion of ballot papers examined at the count and
subsequently rejected at a selection of recent elections in England. At the
2014 local elections almost 51,000 votes were rejected at the count –that is
0.6% of all those counted. This is in line with the long-term average for local
elections. Voters in the districts were most likely (0.75%) to have their ballots
rejected.
The most common reason for rejection is an unclear ballot paper –‘unmarked
or wholly void for uncertainty’ in the technical language. In 2014 these
accounted for more than three-quarters of rejections in those cases where we
have complete data. In 27 local authorities in excess of 1% of ballots coming
to the count were rejected. Burnley and Craven topped the list with a rejection
rate of 2.2% each.
Postal voting –uptake and turnout
A sizeable number of electors continue to take advantage of the opportunity to
apply for and cast a postal vote. At these elections some 3.5 million postal
votes were issued -15.8% of all those with a contested election in their ward
(Table 6). Exact comparisons with previous years are necessarily inexact
because of the varying electoral cycle, but it can be noted that 15.9% of local
electors had a postal vote in 2010 (the previous occasion when most of the
seats being contested this year last fell vacant). Those elections did though of
course coincide with a general election.
Table 6. Postal electors and local votes 2014 –overall and by type of
authority
Number of postal ballot papers issued
Number returned
Number included ‘in count’
Rejected or otherwise not included in count
3,501,880
2,432,272
2,318,424
113,848
as % of electorate
as % of issued
as % of votes at count
as % of those returned
London boroughs
Postal ballot papers as % of electorate:
% ‘Turnout’ among postal voters:
Rejected ballot papers as % of those returned:
Postal ballots as % of those at count:
14.0 (13.6 in 2010)
67.7 (78.0 in 2010*)
4.9 (4.6 in 2010)
23.5 (16.3 in 2010)
Metropolitan boroughs
Postal ballot papers as % of electorate:
% ‘Turnout’ among postal voters:
Rejected ballot papers as % of those returned:
Postal ballots as % of those at count:
17.5 (18.6 in 2010)
68.9 (80.7 in 2010*)
4.6 (4.0 in 2010)
34.4 (23.6 in 2010)
15.8
69.5
29.3
4.7
5
Unitary authorities
Postal ballot papers as % of electorate:
% ‘Turnout’ among postal voters:
Rejected ballot papers as % of those returned:
Postal ballots as % of those at count:
14.7 (14.5 in 2010)
70.7 (82.4 in 2010*)
5.7 (4.3 in 2010)
28.9 (18.7 in 2010)
District councils
Postal ballot papers as % of electorate:
% ‘Turnout’ among postal voters:
Rejected ballot papers as % of those returned:
Postal ballots as % of those at count:
15.5 (15.0 in 2010)
71.5 (83.5 in 2010*)
4.2 (3.3 in 2010)
28.8 (18.3 in 2010)
*in 2010 the local elections coincided with the general election
Although postal voting remains most common in the metropolitan boroughs,
not least because 29 out of a total of 36 such boroughs are located in the
North East, North West, and Yorkshire and The Humber regions which had
substantial experience of all-postal voting between 2000 and 2004, there is
some evidence that the numbers have plateaued. In two council areas more
than 35% of the electorate had a postal vote and in seven more over 25% did
so –see Table 7. These councils make a regular appearance on this list and
each has conducted all postal pilots in the past. At the other extreme, there
were 11 authorities (again familiar names) where fewer than 10% of electors
had a postal vote. There are, of course, even sharper variations when ward
level data are examined.
Table 7. Largest and smallest take up of postal votes - % electorate by
authority 2014
Local authority
Largest
Sunderland
Stevenage
South Tyneside
39.7
35.1
33.7
Smallest
Kingston upon Hull
Oxford
Halton
7.6
7.5
7.0
The proportion of postal voters returning their ballot papers always exceeds
the turnout among ‘in person’ voters. To an extent this can be explained by
the fact that applying for such a vote in the first place often indicates a higher
than average level of interest in and engagement with political events. More
than two in three postal electors used their vote (69.5%), although this was
understandably lower than at the comparable elections in 2010 when 80.9%
of postal electors participated in contests combined with a general election.
By contrast the turnout among those obliged to visit a polling station was just
30.0%. Table 8 contrasts postal and ‘in person’ participation at recent local
elections in England. Turnout at polling stations appears especially to be hit
when the local elections are stand-alone events as in 2008, 2012 and 2013.
6
Table 8. Postal and ‘in person’ turnout at English local elections 2008-2014*
Postal voter turnout
2014
2013
2012
2011
2009
2008
69.5
67.1
68.0
72.8
68.7
71.5
‘In person’ turnout
30.0
25.0
24.2
36.7
35.2
28.7
*Elections in 2010 are excluded because of their clash with the 2010 general election. The local elections in 2011 were
held on the same day as a referendum on the parliamentary voting system. In 2009 and 2014 they coincided with
European Parliament elections.
This phenomenon also means that postal votes form a disproportionate
number of those at the count. In 2014 nearly three in ten of all local votes
counted (29.3%) were cast by post. Indeed some argue that the success of
postal voting acts to disguise a continuing problem of low electoral
participation among those who choose not to take advantage of this facility.
Postal vote rejection
As outlined earlier some electors who try to vote by post are found to have
completed the documentation incorrectly and their ballot papers never reach
the count. The introduction of personal identifiers before the 2007 elections
appears to have led to a small increase in the proportion of postal votes
rejected or otherwise not included in the count –see Table 9. This is especially
the case when local elections are combined with other contests. This year’s
figure of 4.7% is exactly the same as when local elections were last combined
with EP ones in 2009.
Table 9. Postal vote rejection at English local elections 2006-2014*
% returned postal voting envelopes/contents not included in the count
2014*
2013
2012
2011*
2010*
2009*
2008
2007
2006
4.7
3.1
4.2
5.2
4.0
4.7
3.6
3.2
3.0
*The local elections in 2010 were held on the same day as a general election and in 2011 they coincided with a
referendum on the parliamentary voting system. In 2009 and 2014 they coincided with European Parliament elections.
In order to obtain more information on the reasons for postal vote rejection
than the statutory forms allow and to try to overcome inconsistencies within
and between local authorities in the recording of answers, each returning
officer was asked to compile and submit additional data on the outcomes of
their verification process. Table 10 makes clear that rejection following a
mismatch of signature and/or date of birth was much more common than
7
rejection for incomplete or missing information. The former accounts for at
least four in ten of all rejections in each type of local authority. This is in line
with data from previous years.
In other cases of rejection, varying from 21% in the unitary authorities to 36%
in the districts, electors returned their postal voting envelopes but failed to
include either the ballot paper itself or the verification statement or both. The
proportion doing this was higher than in both 2013 and 2012, but on a par with
2011 when local elections and the PVS referendum were combined. It is likely
that some voters deliberately decide not to participate at both available
electoral events. Having said that, these figures represent percentages of the
small number of rejected ballots. In fact, less than 1.5% of all returned postal
votes were rejected for a missing ballot or verification statement. The vast
majority of postal voters did correctly file their returns complete with all
necessary documents and matching signature and date of birth.
Table 10. Reasons for rejection of postal votes at verification by % of
total rejected at 2014 local elections
Lond
Met
Unit
Dist
Total
PV statement rejected (No signature)
PV statement rejected (No DoB)
PV statement rejected (Both)
4
6
7
7
4
12
8
6
11
6
5
12
6
5
10
Proportion rejected (incomplete information)
17
22
25
23
21
PV statement mismatched signature
PV statement mismatched DoB
PV statement mismatched both
29
19
8
18
17
8
27
17
9
18
16
7
22
17
8
Proportion rejected (mismatching)
56
43
54
41
48
Proportion rejected (ballot paper
or statement missing)
27
35
21
36
31
Waivers
A concession granted under the terms of the Electoral Administration Act
2006 was that postal electors who either had a disability, or were illiterate, or
were unable to furnish a consistent signature could apply for a waiver to use
their date of birth as their sole identifier. Table 11 shows that the proportion of
postal electors granted such a waiver was just under a half of one percent.
There were however variations at local authority level suggesting that the
grant of waivers is at least in part attributable to how far the local authority
publicises the availability of this concession.
Table 11: Postal electors granted ‘waivers’ at the 2014 local elections
As proportion of postal electors Average per local authority
Total
0.47
103
London boroughs
Met boroughs
Unitaries
District councils
0.35
0.47
0.47
0.60
88
194
93
67
8
Proxy votes
The introduction of postal voting on demand has had a downward impact on
the number of electors appointing proxies, especially when there is no
concurrent general election –see Table 12. This year some 21,800 local
electors (0.10% of the total electorate) appointing a proxy and 530 emergency
proxies being issued across all councils with local elections.
Table 12. Proxy voters as percentage of electorate in England 2001-2014
2014 Loc
0.10
2013 Loc 2012 Loc
0.10
0.10
2011 Loc 2010 Loc 2010 Gen 2005 Gen 2001 Gen
0.15
0.28
0.32
0.22
0.47
Mayoral Elections
Together with the European Parliament and local contests, mayoral elections
took place in the London boroughs of Hackney, Lewisham, Newham and
Tower Hamlets, and in Watford. In each case the incumbent Mayor was reelected. Details of turnout, rejected ballots, and postal voting can be found in
Table 13 below.
Table 13. Mayoral elections May 2014
% ballot box turnout
Hackney
Lewisham
Newham
Tower Hamlets
Watford
39.6
37.2
40.6
47.6
36.0
%postal voters
Hackney
Lewisham
Newham
Tower Hamlets
Watford
% rejected ballots
18.3
11.6
12.1
16.2
16.3
2.1
1.4
3.0
2.7
2.4
% pv turnout
67.8
65.3
71.2
72.5
70.0
%postal ballots rejected
8.2
3.5
6.4
7.2
3.3
Although the turnout of both in person and postal voters was similar to that at
the other contests held on the same day, the mayoral elections did register a
somewhat higher proportion of votes rejected at the count than at either their
local or EP counterparts. We have noted this phenomenon in previous years
and suspect it may in part be explained by the still relative unfamiliarity of the
Supplementary Vote system used to choose Mayors.
9