3. Risk Assessment
Update Information
For the purposes of the 2010 LMS update, no new hazards have been identified. The probability
of each hazard occurring has been verified from trustworthy sources including the National
Weather Service, United States Geological Survey, and the Florida Division of Forestry. Not
every hazard was looked at in depth as some hazards have a minute chance of occurring. These
hazards that are not analyzed in depth are tsunamis, earthquakes, coastal and riverine erosion, and
dam/levee failure.
The previous occurrences for each hazard were updated if possible. If a recorded event occurred
within the past five years, it was noted in this LMS update. However, if an event was not noted,
that does not indicate a decreased probability of occurrence, simply that the county has managed
a streak of inactivity for that hazard.
The vulnerability and impact of each jurisdiction were updated as required if the numbers or
information had become outdated since the previous LMS.
The potential dollar loss of vulnerable structures was calculated using a combination of Polk
County Property Appraiser data and MEMPHIS data. MEMPHIS (Mapping for Emergency
Management, Parallel Hazard Information System) is a web based system that provides
information regarding hazard related data.
MEMPHIS provides an estimate of dollar loss per jurisdiction per hazard, though this data is
outdated. For this LMS update, the percent loss for hurricane and flood hazards were applied to
current Polk County Property Appraiser data and used to come up with a more accurate estimate
of dollar losses for those hazards.
For hazards that are not hurricanes or floods, MEMPHIS places sections of each jurisdiction in a
zone of probability of that hazard occurring, showing the number of buildings and equivalent
dollar value that is exposed. That methodology was applied to current Property Appraiser values
to determine the dollar amounts that fall within a probability zone and hence have that given
chance of being exposed to the hazard. The tables containing the information for potential dollar
losses and exposures for each hazard can be found in Appendix C.
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August 2009
Natural Hazard Analysis
The following natural hazards have been identified by FEMA Region IV, for analysis and
possible inclusion in the Polk Local Mitigation Strategy.
Coastal and Riverine Erosion – Polk County is an inland county and therefore not directly
subject to coastal erosion hazards. Polk County contains 554 freshwater lakes that occupy
approximately 135 square miles, while the Hillsborough, Kissimmee, Palatlakaha, Peace, Alafia,
and Withlacoochee rivers wind their way throughout the county. Erosion is not a hazard, and an
assessment will be excluded.
Dam/Levee Failure – There are no dams or levees in or near Polk County that can fail and create
a flood hazard. An assessment is excluded.
Drought/Heart Wave – A drought is a period of abnormally dry weather which persists long
enough to produce serious hydrologic imbalance such as crop damage, water shortage, etc. The
severity of the drought depends on the degree of moisture deficiency, the duration and the size of
the affected area.
There are 4 ways to define drought:
Meteorological – means a measure of the departure of precipitation from normal. Due to climatic
differences, what is considered a drought in one location may not be a drought in another
location.
Agricultural – refers to a situation when the amount of moisture in the soil no longer meets the
needs of a particular crop.
Hydrological – occurs when surface and subsurface water supplies are below normal.
Socioeconomic – refers to what occurs when physical water shortage begins to affect people.
Earthquakes – The U.S. Geological Survey, National Seismic Mapping Project (website),
locates Polk County in the 1%g (peak acceleration) area. Because of this very low rating the
Florida Division of Emergency Management does not require local Comprehensive Emergency
Management Plans to address earthquakes as a hazard that is likely to affect our residents and
visitors. Therefore, an earthquake assessment will be excluded.
Floods – Floods are the most common and widespread of all natural disaster, except fire. A
flood, as defined by the National Flood Insurance Program website is a “general and temporary
condition of partial or complete inundation of two or more acres of normally dry land area or of
two or more properties from”:
•
•
•
Overflow of inland or tidal waters,
Unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from land source, or
A mudflow.
Hurricanes and Coastal Storms – A hurricane is a severe tropical storm that forms in the
southern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes develop in warm,
tropical waters, where moisture is plentiful, and winds are light. A hurricane can produce violent
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August 2009
winds, incredible waves, torrential rains and floods. Other coastal storms produce similar, yet
lesser effects.
Landslides/Sinkholes – According to the USGSA website, Polk County has less than 1.5%
susceptibility for a landslide incident. However, sinkholes are a common, naturally occurring
geologic phenomenon and one of the predominant landforms in Florida. Many of the lakes in
Florida were formed by sinkholes. Sinkholes are depressions or holes in the land surface that
occur throughout west central Florida. They can be shallow or deep, small or large, but all are a
result of the underlying limestone dissolving. Hydrologic conditions including lack of rainfall,
lowered water levels, or conversely, excessive rainfall in a short period of time, can all contribute
to sinkhole development. Sinkholes can be classified as geologic hazards, sometimes causing
extensive damage to structures and roads, resulting costly repairs. Sinkholes can also threaten
water supplies by draining unfiltered water from streams, lakes and wetlands, directly into the
aquifer.
Sever Storm/Tornadoes – Tornadoes are one of nature’s most violent storms. A tornado is a
rapidly rotating column of air extending from a thunderstorm to the ground. Tornadoes come in
all shapes and sizes, and can occur anywhere in the United States, at any time of the year. In
southern states, peak tornado season is March through May.
Tsunamis – According to FEMA 386-2 CD, Florida has a relatively low tsunami risk and The
Florida Division of Emergency Management does not require local plans to address tsunamis as a
hazard. An assessment will be excluded.
Floods can be slow or fast rising, but generally develop over a period of days.
Wildfires – the National Interagency Fire Center website rates Florida in the low fire damage
class. However, as a mostly rural county, much of Polk County remains in the high to moderate
probability category for wildfires.
Wildfires can erupt at any time of the year from a variety of causes, including arson, lightning,
and debris burning. Florida’s wildfire season normally runs from December to June, with the
larges/greatest number of acres burned peaking in May.
In April and May, Florida usually has a dry spell. This is because the frontal passages from the
north and west are no longer moving through the state and the summer thunderstorm activity has
not yet started.
Winter Storms/Freezes – According to the Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services
(DOACS), a moderate freeze may be expected every 1-2 years. Severe freezes may be expected
on an average of once every 15 to 20 years. Temperatures in the 20s can last for as long as 6 – 8
hours from December – March causing hard freezes. Freezes pose a major hazard to the
agriculture industry in Polk County on a recurring basis, and are a significant threat to the
economic vitality of the State’s vital agriculture industry.
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August 2009
Hurricanes and Coastal Storms
Location – Simply being in Florida makes Polk County vulnerable to the affects of hurricanes
and tropical storms. However, the geographical location protects residents from storm surges
associated with hurricanes, but not the severe winds and flood potential.
Extent - Hurricanes are categorized by the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale:
Table 3-1 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category
Wind Speed
1
74 – 95 mph
2
96 – 110 mph
3
111 – 130 mph
4
131 – 155 mph
5
156 mph >
Storm Surge
4 – 5 feet
6 – 8 feet
9 – 12 feet
13 – 18 feet
18 feet >
Damage
Minor
Moderate
Major
Extensive
Catastrophic
Previous Occurrences –The most prominent occurrences of hurricane and coastal storms
occurred in 2004 when Polk County was directly impacted by two hurricanes, while indirectly
affected by two others. Hurricane Charley made landfall on August 13th, Frances on September
4th, Ivan on September 16th, and hurricane Jeanne on September 26th. Total damages in Polk
County are still being determined. The population of Polk County at the time was around 510,458
residents. Outside of the 2004 season, hurricanes Erin (1995), Irene (1999), Wilma (2005), and
Ernesto (2006), along with Tropical Storms Jerry (1995), Mitch (1998), and Fay (2008) have
impacted the county within the last 15 years (Source: Polk County Emergency Operations Center,
NOAA). See Appendix B.
Probability of Future Events – According to NOAA’s website, Central Florida has a 50%
probability of being struck by a named storm. Recent history indicates that residents can expect a
storm to affect Polk County every 2-3 years, and the most likely event will be a Category 3 or
lesser storm. The probability of being affected by a storm is low to moderate.
Vulnerability– Polk County has a high vulnerability to the effects of a hurricane. Since 46% of
the county is located within a floodplain, there is high potential for damages and loss from heavy
rains associated with hurricanes.
All areas and jurisdictions of the county are equally at risk from high winds, and with almost half
the county in a floodplain, all jurisdictions are also equally at risk for localized flooding caused
by the heavy rains of a hurricane weather pattern.
Impact – A hurricane or coastal storm would have a high impact on the county. Due to the high
winds and heavy rains associated with a hurricane many residents will be unable to return to their
homes. Over 45,000 residents will need to be accounted for in the event of an evacuation. Many
mobile/manufactured homes will be destroyed and repairs to other homes that are uninhabitable
may take weeks/months to complete. Some may choose to never return to their homes as was the
case following Hurricane Andrew. The economic impact will vary greatly. Many small
businesses will close forever while others will prosper. Home repair, carpet and appliance
businesses will experience short-term increases in business. Other businesses, particularly those
associated with tourism or real estate sales, will suffer.
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August 2009
Potential Dollar Losses to Structures – The risk assessment data for wind-related damage in
Polk County are based on data developed for the MEMPHIS, which was developed by the
FDEM. Wind-related damage in either a 100-year or 50 year event could cause light damage to
structures in Polk County. A 25-year event could lightly damage one-third of the structures in
Polk County, and a 10-year event should cause no damage. The tables in Appendix C indicate the
value of buildings exposed during a given event in each jurisdiction, the percent loss, and the
estimate amount lost.
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August 2009
Floods
Location– Fresh water flooding has the highest potential along the five rivers and around the 554
lakes that dot the county. Floods regularly affect few homes and roads every few years.
Extent – The extent of a flood is generally measured in water levels and amount of damage done.
Polk County is highly subject to river flooding due to heavy rains. They are categorized using the
following:
100-year flood (1% chance per year)
50-year flood (2% chance per year)
25-year flood (4% chance per year)
10-year flood (10% chance per year)
These categories indicate a probability of occurrence (a 100-year flood has a 1% chance of
occurrence in one year). The smaller percent chance of occurrence the more devastating the flood
is.
Previous Occurrences – In the past 50 years, several minor flooding events have occurred
causing almost $3 million in damages. The most significant event occurred on September 15,
1994. Two synoptic-scale systems, one tropical and one non-tropical brought heavy rain to most
of peninsular Florida the last half of September. Rivers and streams, particularly in the west
central counties of Citrus, Polk, Hillsborough, Sarasota, Hardee, Desoto and Manatee Counties,
overflowed, flooding roadways and inundating or isolating residential areas. Other sections of
Florida, particularly the northeast and east central, experienced urban flooding which closed roads
and flooded schools and homes in Duval County and flooded subdivisions in Flagler, Volusia, St.
Johns and Brevard counties as well as in Wakulla County in northwest Florida. In southern
interior Florida, flooding of swampy areas around Lake Okeechobee damaged some roadways in
Hendry County and isolated houses in Glades and western Palm Beach Counties. Damages
totaled $500,000. (Source: National Weather Service website)
Probability of Future Events – Heavy rains and fresh water flooding occur in cycles that many
now attribute to the “El Nino”. There is a long history of flooding in Polk County and most of
central Florida. This trend is expected to continue. There is a moderate probability of heavy
flooding occurring. See Appendix B.
Vulnerability – For the relatively few people who live along the banks of the various rivers and
the numerous lakes, or other low-lying areas, vulnerability is higher than normal and the impact
potentially great. However, for the County as a whole, vulnerability is moderate.
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August 2009
Table 3-2 Polk County Flood Vulnerability
Area of the County
Unincorporated Areas of the County
City of Auburndale
City of Bartow
City of Davenport
City of Dundee
City of Eagle Lake
City of Fort Meade
City of Frostproof
City of Haines City
Village of Highland Park
Town of Hillcrest Heights
City of Lakeland
Town of Lake Alfred
Town of Lake Hamilton
City of Lake Wales
City of Mulberry
Town of Polk City
City of Winter Haven
Level of Risk
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low - Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low - Moderate
Low - Moderate
Low - Moderate
Low - Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Impact – To the victims of a flood, the impacts are moderate to high. Most cannot return to/live
in their homes until repairs and clean-up are completed. Even with flood insurance, the cost to
the homeowner can be in the thousands. Conversely, floods are often profitable for some
businesses, such as those specializing in flooring, appliances and furniture.
Potential Dollar Losses to Structures – These dollar loss figures do not include the long term
lost revenue from impacted businesses. The tables in Appendix C indicate the value of buildings
exposed during a given event in each jurisdiction, the percent loss, and the estimate amount lost.
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August 2009
Sinkholes
Location – The entire county has potential for the formation of a sinkhole. Maps show that
sinkholes tend to develop near areas of high population.
Extent – There are three types of sinkholes that can affect Polk County.
Table 3-3 Polk County Sinkhole Types and Locations
Sinkhole Type
Characteristics
Solution Sinkholes
• Bowl shaped
• Shallow, broad
• Gradual development
Cover-Collapse
• Abrupt collapse development
Sinkholes
• Vertical or overhanging walls
• Circular shape
• Varying sizes and depths
Cover-Subsidence
• Shallow depth
Sinkholes
• Small diameter
• Gradual development
Polk County Location
North
Central, Southwest
Southeast
Previous Occurrences – The most recent occurrence reported by the United States Geological
Survey (USGS) of a sinkhole occurring in Polk County was June 15, 2006 in the city of Mulberry
that damaged a house and concrete boat landing. The USGS has recorded 17 other occurrences
between 2000 and 2002. Other sinkholes occur but are not reported to the USGS. Red Cross
responded to a sinkhole in the City of Lake Wales on October 26, 2008.
Probability of Future Events – There is a likelihood that sinkholes will continue to occur.
Periods of drought and heavy rain have created suitable conditions for the formation of sinkholes.
There is a low to moderate probability of a future occurrence. See Appendix B
Vulnerability– The entire county and all jurisdictions have a low to moderate vulnerability level.
The amount of people adversely affected by a sinkhole is small, but there is still an increased
likelihood of occurrence.
Impact –Sinkholes have a moderate impact on Polk County. If sinkholes were to occur in Polk
County, their impact could range from minor damage to a home or road, to an entire city block.
The impact could potentially increase significantly if municipalities were affected. Many of the
homes vulnerable to sinkholes are owned by retirees. With the average annual income per capita
in the $25,000 to $30,000 range, most residents do not have sufficient insurance and are unable to
pay for major repairs. Sinkholes could affect the economy in several ways:
•
•
•
Reduced real estate sales and profits
Provided a boom in business for sinkhole stabilization companies
Created new businesses that by homes at bargain prices for repair and resale/rent
Potential Dollar Losses to Structures – According to LRE, a local ground service company that
repairs dozens of homes for insurance companies in central Florida each year, the average cost to
stabilize a home due to sinkhole damage is $50,000 and repairs average $2,500. Most homes are
insured, however, uninsured losses may become more frequent as affordable insurance becomes
less available.
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August 2009
Every part of the county and each jurisdiction have the possibility of being affected by a sinkhole.
The tables in Appendix C show the dollar amounts for each building type that is within a zone of
low, medium, high, very high, extreme, or adjacent (adjacent being next to a zone, but not within
one). The dollar values indicate the total amount that is exposed, but a dollar estimate is
impossible to project because of the localization of the sinkhole hazard.
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August 2009
Wildfires
Location – Being a predominately rural county, most of the area, with the exception of several
municipalities, is vulnerable to the affects of wildfires. Based on mapping by the Florida Division
of Forestry, the entire unincorporated area of the county is at low to moderate risk due to dense
underbrush and the high number of wooded areas.
Extent – The extent of wildfires is categorized by the fuel source which the fire draws from.
They are divided into 9 levels depending on the potential and intensity of a fire. Level 1 indicates
lower probability and lower intensity, while level 9 indicates higher probability with greater
intensity.
Previous Occurrences –In 2001 a large wildfire burned over 11,000 acres of mainly grass, scrub
trees and shrubs along and north of the Interstate 4 corridor over mainly rural portions of northern
Polk County. A ten mile stretch of Interstate 4 was closed between Polk City and Lakeland due to
the wildfire for nearly ten days. The variable smoke plume produced by the wildfire occasionally
reduced visibility to between one half and two miles as far west as St. Petersburg in Pinellas
County. Also, ash from the smoke plume was deposited as far southwest as Ft. Myers in Lee
county of Southwest Florida. From 2005-2009, the Florida Division of Forestry has reported 5
large fires, burning a combined 10,750 acres.
Probability of Future Events – Controlled/prescribed burns are an effort to control outbreaks of
wildfires by burning the underbrush, which would contribute significantly to fueling flames.
Because of these regularly scheduled burns, the likelihood of a major wildfire is normally low to
medium. During periods of drought the probability increases from moderate to high. See
Appendix B.
Vulnerability– Because much of the County is undeveloped green space vulnerability is
moderate to high. If a major wildfire were to occur, the biggest impact would be the loss of the
green space itself. Most populated areas can be protected at the cost of the forest. Each
jurisdiction is at risk of a wildfire as indicated in the following table.
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August 2009
Table 3-4 Polk County Wildfire Vulnerability
Area of the County
Unincorporated Areas of the County
City of Auburndale
City of Bartow
City of Davenport
City of Dundee
City of Eagle Lake
City of Fort Meade
City of Frostproof
City of Haines City
Village of Highland Park
Town of Hillcrest Heights
City of Lakeland
City of Lake Alfred
Town of Lake Hamilton
City of Lake Wales
City of Mulberry
City of Polk City
City of Winter Haven
Level of Risk
Low - Moderate
Moderate – High
Low – Moderate
Moderate – High
Low – Moderate
Low – Moderate
Low – Moderate
Low – Moderate
Moderate – High
Moderate – High
Moderate – High
Low – Moderate
Low – Moderate
Low – Moderate
Low – Moderate
Low – Moderate
Moderate – High
Low - Moderate
Impact – The impact of wildfires are moderate to high. Wildfires impact residents and
businesses by threatening physical structures. However, smoke can also have widespread impacts
cause evacuations of areas of heavy smoke. This has personal as well as economic loss,
depending on what area is affected. Uncontrolled wildfires can cause severe economic impact to
the agricultural industry depending on their location.
Potential Dollar Losses to Structures – With over 40,000 residential and commercial structures
in the moderate to high rated areas of the county, the potential dollar losses could exceed $2
billion. However, according to US Forestry statistics, the average major fire burns approximately
210 acres or a little over ¾ of a square mile, so the expected damage costs would be significantly
less.
The tables in Appendix C list the dollar amounts that are exposed to certain levels of wildfire
hazard for each jurisdiction. Exposure does not dictate a specific damage estimate because it is
impossible to determine the amount of damage that a wildfire will cause. The tables demonstrate
the total values of a certain type of structure that are susceptible to that level of wildfire. If a
table does not contain all levels 1 through 9, this indicates that the Florida Division of Forestry
does not report that level of hazard as a risk for that jurisdiction.
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August 2009
Severe Storms and Tornadoes
Location – Severe storms and tornadoes affect the entire county.
Extent - Tornadoes are categorized by the Fujita scale:
Table 3-5 Fujita Tornado Scale
Category
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
Damage
Minor
Moderate
Significant
Sever
Devastating
Incredible
Wind Speed
< 72 mph
73 – 112 mph
113-157 mph
158 – 206 mph
207 – 260 mph
261 > mph
Previous Occurrences – Since 1951, 150 tornadoes (F0 – F4) and 265 severe storms have been
documented in Polk County by the National Weather Service (website). The most severe (an F4
Tornado) occurred in 1958 and again 1966. Many of these storms produced lightning strikes that
caused significant damage. Total damages over just the last 10 years are over $1.7 billion in
property, and $175 million in crop damage.
The most recent major occurrence was an F1 tornado on April 23, 2005 and an F0 tornado in
April 15, 2007which both caused $250,000 worth of damage. There have been other occurrences
in the past 5 years, all of F0 strength, but with minimal damage reported. There were 3 other
occurrences in 2005 (September 30, August 12, October, 23), 3 occurrences in 2006 (June 12,
June 24, and September 15), and 1 other occurrence in 2007 (February 2).
Probability of Future Events – Severe storms are a common occurrence in Florida and there is a
high probability that it will continue in the future.
Vulnerability – Polk County has high vulnerability to severe storms and tornadoes. Severe
storms are common and most infrastructure is built to withstand the effects of such storms.
Tornadoes have greater affects but in a smaller area, so the vulnerability is also moderate.
All jurisdictions within the county are at equal risk of being affected by a severe storm or tornado
Impact - The impacts are generally moderate to high and can range from short-term power
outages to major damage to structures. In the past 10 years there has been only 1 death, but 44
injuries in Polk County attributed to severe weather events. If a worst-case event were to occur,
such as an F3 tornado, 2 deaths and 30 injuries (State average for an F3 event) could be expected.
Individual/localized damages have caused a major impact to families and neighborhoods,
particularly mobile home parks. Because events are frequent, several businesses have started to
specialize in making fast repairs to storm damages.
Potential Dollar Losses to Structures – Based on records of previous occurrences in Polk
County, each event averages just over $100,000 and the most costly event was $9.4 Million. A
worst-case future occurrence of an F3 tornado impacting the most densely developed part of the
county could affect 207,161 homes. A worst case scenario event, involving major damage to a
quarter of the homes, (average county home value is $83,300) would create over a $4 billion
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August 2009
event. To put these estimates in perspective, Florida has experienced 37 F3 tornadoes in the past
50 years. Damages have averaged $6.7 million and the costliest event was $50 million.
The tables in Appendix C show the dollar value of structures exposed to tornadoes within a given
probability zone for that jurisdiction. Historically, some jurisdictions have experienced more
severe weather and tornadoes, which gives them a greater probability of occurrence.
Damage estimates are not provided for thunderstorms because the entire county and all
jurisdictions are at equal probability of experiencing a thunderstorm, and in such an event, 100%
of buildings are exposed.
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August 2009
Drought/Heat Wave
Location – The entire County can be affected by a hydrological drought. The extent of damage
is normally minimal. In 2001 the State’s citrus crop was 6% less than normal because of a twoyear drought. Lawns and landscape that can only be watered in compliance with regional
watering restrictions are also affected by drought.
Extent – There are two standard methods for measuring drought.
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) measures precipitation, air temperature, and soil
moisture. It produces a value ranking an area from -6.0 (extreme drought) to +6.0 (extreme wet
conditions).
The Ketch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) estimates the dryness of soil and duff layers, and
increases for each day without rain. The values produced range from 0 (no moisture deficit) to
800 (high moisture deficit). This index is primarily used to indicate favorable conditions for wild
fires.
Previous Occurrences – Minor droughts occur every few years. They are usually associated with
a “La Nina” event. The last occurrence was from 1999 to 2001. According to the National
Weather Service website, the most serious event occurred in South Florida from May 2000 to
May 2001. Below normal rains caused $100 million in crop damages. However, no drought or
heat wave events have been reported in Polk County since January 1, 1950.
Probability of Future Events – There is a moderate chance that cycles of reduced rains will
continue to cause hydrological droughts in the future.
Vulnerability – Vulnerability to drought/heat wave is low to moderate. If water levels drop to a
point where water restrictions are expanded to include agriculture, vulnerability increases.
All jurisdictions within the county are at a low risk of a drought or heat wave hazard.
Impact – To date there have been no recorded human or significant economic impacts from
droughts in Polk County, therefore the impact is low to moderate. However, being an agricultural
county, a major long-term hydrological drought that causes the loss of an entire year’s crops
could cause more than $284 million in damages and millions more to lawns and landscaping. A
more likely event would result in a 5-10% reduction in crop yield and only $14.2 to $28.4 million
in losses. In addition, a drought could also impact the county’s $35,554,000 annual livestock
industry.
Potential Dollar Losses to Structures – None
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August 2009
Winter Storms/Freezes
Location – The entire county can be affected by freezes. However, except for the municipalities,
the extent of damage is greatest in the rest of the county where farms/groves are located. Since
1999, 20 freezes or events of extreme wind chill have caused over $38.9 million in damages to
crops in Polk County. (Source: National Weather Service website)
Extent – There are no specific categories of intensity for hard freezes or winter storms. Winter
storms and freezes are measured in wind chill and Fahrenheit degrees, specifically when it drops
below freezing (32°).
Previous Occurrences – Since 1999 the Polk County area has experienced 20 freezes or events
of extreme wind chill. The latest event occurred on January 1, 2003 when arctic high pressure
settled over the southeastern United States which maintained the clear and cold weather across
the Florida peninsula. Overnight lows of 19 to 24 occurred from Bronson to Brooksville with
temperatures in the 30s farther south. Northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph produced wind chills
down to 25 degrees from Tampa to Lakeland to Fort Myers. Citrus crops fared well during the
freeze but strawberries took an estimated $4.5 million dollar loss and tropical fish an estimated $4
million dollar loss. (NCDC Website)
Probability of Future Events – There is a moderate probability that multiple freezes will occur
each year. Several are likely to be hard freezes that could damage crops.
Vulnerability– There is a low to moderate vulnerability to winter storms/freezes for Polk
County. The citrus industry is the most vulnerable to freezes. Currently Polk County consists of
3,114 farms totaling 626,634 acres that produce an average of $284,787,000 in crops each year.
(Dept. of Agriculture website)
Table 3-6 Polk County Wildfire Vulnerability
Area of the County
Unincorporated Areas of the County
City of Auburndale
City of Bartow
City of Davenport
City of Dundee
City of Eagle Lake
City of Fort Meade
City of Frostproof
City of Haines City
Village of Highland Park
Town of Hillcrest Heights
City of Lakeland
Town of Lake Alfred
Town of Lake Hamilton
City of Lake Wales
City of Mulberry
Town of Polk City
City of Winter Haven
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~ 23 ~
Level of Risk
Low – Moderate
Low - Moderate
Moderate
Low – Moderate
Moderate
Low – Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low – Moderate
Low – Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low – Moderate
Moderate
Low – Moderate
Moderate
Low - Moderate
Moderate
August 2009
Impact – For growers the impact can vary from low to moderate. A major freeze that causes the
loss of an entire year’s crops could cause more than $284 million in damages. It is highly
unlikely that this worst-case scenario could occur. In recent years citrus has been affected very
little by freezes. New hybrids and growing techniques have limited the impact of freezes
significantly. A more likely event would impact 5-10% of crop production and cause only $14.2
to $28.4 million in losses.
Potential Dollar Losses to Structures – None
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August 2009
Conclusions/Recommendations
The following table represents a summary of the natural hazards that affect Polk County. The
table lists the hazards from greatest threat to least threat. Probability, impact, and vulnerability
are discussed in the hazard profiles. Injury/Death indicates the likelihood of human losses for
each hazard. Economic loss is the amount of damage done to the economic infrastructure by the
hazard. Environmental loss indicates the adverse effects the hazard has on the environment.
Service Disruption shows how badly basic services and utilities could be affected by the hazard.
Table 3-7 Polk County Vulnerability Summary Table
Probability
Impact
Vulnerability Injury/Death
Economic
Loss
Environmental
Loss
Service
Disruption
Hurricanes and
Coastal Storms
low-med
high
high
med-high
med-high
med-high
med
Severe Storms
and Tornadoes
high
med-high
high
med-high
low-med
low-med
med
Wildfires
med-high
med-high
high
low-med
low-med
med-high
low
Flooding
med
med-high
med
low
med
med
med
Winter
Storms/Freezes
med
low-med
low-med
low
med-high
high
low
Sinkholes
low-med
med
med
low
low-med
med
low
Drought/Heat
Wave
med
low-med
low-med
low
low-med
med
low
Hurricanes and Coastal Storms pose the greatest threat to Polk County. The probability,
vulnerability, impact and potential losses total the highest of all natural hazards assessed.
Because many mitigation programs, policies and projects are available to reduce future losses,
this hazard should receive the most emphasis.
Severe Storms and Tornadoes are a way of life in Central Florida. There are few cost effective
ways to mitigate the effects of a 150-200 mph tornado, and even fewer ways for governments to
assist.
The threat of Wildfires may be moderate, but their future impact could be significant and cause
the loss of a major natural resource. Mitigation measures are possible and affordable.
Flooding is one of the most likely natural hazards to cause damage to Polk County. Floods are
frequent occurrences and there are several mitigation programs, policies and projects available to
reduce future losses.
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 25 ~
August 2009
Winter Storms/Freezes have little impact on Polk County, except for the potential minor
economic impact to citrus crops. Like drought/heat wave, there is little that can be done to reduce
future effects.
The major threat of Sinkholes is the human and economic impact. Although there are currently
few mitigation measures that government can undertake, future sinkhole mitigation should be
given consideration by the LMS workgroup.
The major impact of Drought/Heat Wave is to our water supply. Water restrictions and other
conservation measures have been implemented and/or encouraged in recent years, but few other
mitigation measures are available. The LMS workgroup may want to include support of water
conservation efforts in the updated strategy.
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 26 ~
August 2009
Repetitive Loss Properties
Repetitive Loss Properties are properties in which two or more flood insurance claims of at least
$1,000 have been filed with the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) over a 10-year period
since 1978. These areas are identified by Section-Township-Range.
Polk County contains 33 properties considered to be repetitive loss properties. Of these 33
properties, 30 properties are single family residential properties. The non-residential properties
are commercial and manufacturing properties.
Each of these properties has filed at least two claims due to flooding, with some filing up to six.
This alludes to the increased vulnerability of these properties. Each property is located within a
floodplain, though to differing levels. Specific location within the floodplain contributes to the
vulnerability, as well as construction and drainage issues which cause greater chance of flooding.
Special Needs Populations
Polk County has a number of residents who are categorized as “special needs.” These are
primarily people who require constant medical attention and are unable to survive without help in
the event of a natural disaster. Anyone who falls under the category of “special needs” must fill
out a registration form with the County, containing their vital information and what needs they
require.
The number of registered special needs residents changes monthly, but averages around 4000
people. There are three shelters in the County which are designated as “Special Needs Shelters”
and that are equipped and prepared to handle people with specific medical needs. The three
shelters are:
Lakeland Adult Day Care, City of Lakeland
Haines City Adult Day Care, City of Haines City
Polk County Health Department Special Care Unit, City of Bartow
Building Inventory and Land Uses
Table 3-8 gives an extensive list of land uses and building types for each jurisdiction. This
information helps to present an idea of what type of land uses are being employed within each
jurisdiction and what the major economic engines are.
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 27 ~
August 2009
Table 3-8 Existing Building Inventory and Land Uses
Auburndale
Residential
SF
Mobile Home
MF
Other
Commercial
Shopping Centers
Supermarkets
Offices
Professional
Services
Restaurants
Banking and
Finance
Service Centers
Other
Industrial
Light
Heavy
Mineral Processing
Other
Institutional
Churches
Cultural
Other
LMS – Risk Assessment
Bartow
Davenport
Dundee
Eagle
Lake
Fort
Meade
Frostproof
Haines
City
Highland
Park
4227
229
218
1720
4994
341
219
1018
1366
449
30
853
1168
109
25
802
755
3
9
301
1548
11
42
410
968
112
43
254
3178
173
176
595
69
0
27
26
215
1
40
172
1
68
24
0
4
57
0
11
25
0
1
58
2
10
62
0
17
32
1
9
0
0
0
8
21
35
24
0
0
1
3
0
1
5
9
5
4
53
12
0
1
9
38
142
9
35
231
1
6
43
2
10
101
1
9
32
3
18
63
4
11
99
3
7
110
0
0
8
27
1
0
77
39
2
1
60
2
0
0
11
3
1
0
26
2
0
0
5
5
1
0
28
3
0
0
74
6
2
2
32
0
0
0
0
75
0
136
90
5
100
14
0
38
21
0
27
5
0
15
39
1
15
17
0
15
27
0
114
0
0
4
~ 28 ~
August 2009
Hillcrest
Heights
Residential
SF
Mobile Home
MF
Other
Lake
Alfred
Lake
Hamilton
Lake
Wales
Lakeland
Mulberry
Polk City
Winter
Haven
Unincorp.
Polk
County
105
0
11
11
1318
3
74
715
514
0
17
249
3955
0
240
1037
23846
1179
3194
3018
707
58
24
111
630
185
11
478
9066
373
1730
3647
135022
31008
7049
36703
Commercial
Shopping Centers
Supermarkets
Offices
Professional
Services
Restaurants
Banking and Finance
Service Centers
Other
0
0
0
70
0
9
28
0
2
174
1
85
812
4
406
98
1
25
42
1
3
550
4
198
1171
2
224
0
0
0
0
0
3
6
2
14
59
0
0
0
3
36
76
27
11
44
619
328
127
49
202
1133
3
14
3
15
125
2
3
1
2
26
105
52
25
77
657
142
73
32
372
2151
Industrial
Light
Heavy
Mineral Processing
Other
0
0
0
0
15
0
0
12
4
0
0
27
17
0
1
61
86
2
0
458
45
1
1
100
5
0
0
3
47
1
0
142
480
14
30
1451
Institutional
Churches
Cultural
Other
0
0
1
19
0
29
8
0
7
68
3
122
308
10
586
28
0
17
8
0
16
139
4
390
513
229
2232
Source: Polk County Property Appraiser
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 29 ~
August 2009
Critical Facilities Inventory
Table 3-9 contains a count of t he number of critical facilities located within each jurisdiction.
Critical facilities are chosen by each jurisdiction, but generally include utilities, emergency
operations buildings, government facilities, medical centers, roads, and communication sites.
This table only gives a general idea of how many critical facilities of a certain category are
located within a jurisdiction. Due to the sensitive nature of some of the critical facilities, a
comprehensive list is not included in this plan. To obtain a comprehensive copy of the critical
facilities list, please contact Polk County Emergency Management at:
Polk County Emergency Management
1295 Brice Boulevard
Bartow, FL 33820
863-534-5600
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 30 ~
August 2009
Table 3-9 Number of Critical Facilities by Jurisdiction
Totals
Auburndale
Bartow
Davenport
Dundee
Eagle
Lake
Public Service Facilities
Government Facilities
County Admininstration
DOH
City Halls
State Buildings
Correctional Facilities
Parks/Rec
94
9
7
14
64
11
103
3
0
2
1
0
0
2
36
7
2
1
26
5
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
Emergency Services
Emergency Operations Center
Emergency Services
Fire
EMS
Police/Law Enforcement
Schools/Shelters
4
89
31
22
36
163
0
3
0
1
2
10
1
4
0
2
2
17
0
4
1
1
2
6
0
1
0
0
1
3
0
3
1
1
1
3
18
523.75
1
17.2
1
26.3
0
6.9
1
5.86
0
8.3
Utility Services
Sewer Treatment Facilities
Landfill
Fuel Sites
28
1
11
1
0
1
1
0
2
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
Healthcare Services
Hospitals/Medical Facilities
Special Needs Facilities
141
31
2
0
14
1
14
0
1
0
0
0
Communication Sites
Communication Totals
County Radio Tower
AM Towers
FM Towers
Wireless Antenna
Cellular Antenna
TV Broadcast Stations
287
12
11
15
218
29
2
15
0
1
1
12
1
0
26
3
2
1
20
0
0
14
1
0
0
9
4
0
4
1
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
3
0
0
5
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Transportation
Airports/Airfields
Evacuation Routes (Miles)*
Volunteer Services
Volunteer Totals
Salvation Army
Red Cross Facilities
Other
* A map showing the evacuation routes within Polk County can be found in Appendix B
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 31 ~
August 2009
Fort
Meade
Frostproof
Haines
City
Highland
Park
Hillcrest
Heights
Lake
Alfred
Public Service Facilities
Government Facilities
County Admininstration
DOH
City Halls
State Buildings
Correctional Facilities
Parks/Rec
1
0
0
1
0
0
3
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
3
0
1
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
4
Emergency Services
Emergency Operations Center
Emergency Services
Fire
EMS
Police/Law Enforcement
Schools/Shelters
0
2
0
1
1
3
0
1
0
0
1
4
0
6
2
2
2
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
1
7
0
7.2
1
7.8
1
13.6
0
1
0
3.2
0
15.21
Utility Services
Sewer Treatment Facilities
Landfill
Fuel Sites
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Healthcare Services
Hospitals/Medical Facilities
Special Needs Facilities
0
0
1
0
4
3
0
0
0
0
1
2
15
1
0
2
9
3
0
13
2
0
1
8
2
0
14
0
1
2
11
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
3
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Transportation
Airports/Airfields
Evacuation Routes (Miles)*
Communication Sites
Communication Totals
County Radio Tower
AM Towers
FM Towers
Wireless Antenna
Cellular Antenna
TV Broadcast Stations
Volunteer Services
Volunteer Totals
Salvation Army
Red Cross Facilities
Other
* A map showing the evacuation routes within Polk County can be found in Appendix B
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 32 ~
August 2009
Lake
Hamilton
Lake Wales
Lakeland
Mulberry
Public Service Facilities
Government Facilities
County Admininstration
DOH
City Halls
State Buildings
Correctional Facilities
Parks/Rec
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
6
0
1
1
4
0
2
22
1
1
1
19
0
16
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
2
0
10
1
0
1
8
0
17
Emergency Services
Emergency Operations Center
Emergency Services
Fire
EMS
Police/Law Enforcement
Schools/Shelters
0
2
1
0
1
0
1
10
6
2
2
10
1
21
5
5
11
60
0
3
1
1
1
4
0
2
1
1
0
2
1
12
4
2
6
21
0
3.9
2
11.9
3
83.98
1
8.3
2
12
1
23.03
Utility Services
Sewer Treatment Facilities
Landfill
Fuel Sites
1
0
0
1
0
0
6
0
2
2
0
1
1
0
0
4
1
0
Healthcare Services
Hospitals/Medical Facilities
Special Needs Facilities
0
0
11
1
57
16
1
0
0
0
34
8
Communication Sites
Communication Totals
County Radio Tower
AM Towers
FM Towers
Wireless Antenna
Cellular Antenna
TV Broadcast Stations
3
0
0
0
2
1
0
26
1
2
0
19
4
0
66
1
3
6
47
8
1
14
0
0
0
11
2
1
11
1
0
0
8
2
0
24
1
1
1
20
1
0
Volunteer Services
Volunteer Totals
Salvation Army
Red Cross Facilities
Other
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
0
Transportation
Airports/Airfields
Evacuation Routes (Miles)*
Polk
City
Winter
Haven
* A map showing the evacuation routes within Polk County can be found in Appendix B
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 33 ~
August 2009
Future Structures, Land Use, and Development
Growth has traditionally come to Polk from the west, from Tampa through Plant City and into the
Lakeland area. Now the eastern portion of the County, primarily along the I-4 Corridor and the
north US Highway 27, is benefiting from the Orlando market area. The opening of the Eagle
Ridge Mall on U.S. 27 north of Lake Wales further fueled growth in this area. Other new
development in the Cypress Gardens Boulevard area of Winter Haven and on Highway 60 east of
Lake Wales is spurring additional growth on the east side of the county. In 2003 the County
adopted the North Ridge Selected Area Plan to recognize the development pressures on the area
south of the I-4/US 27 intersection. That amendment and all the associated implementation tools
adopted to date (LDC, transportation variance, CRA, etc.) for that area completed the planning
area for the urban node around the I-4/US 27 intersection.
The 2000 Census of Population showed the largest growth areas are northern Polk cities and Lake
Wales. This reflects the general areas of development activity and, as a result, those areas have
increased demand in the use of public services. Since the 2000 census the growth north of Haines
City (northeast Polk - North Ridge, North US 27 and Ronald Reagan Parkway SAPs), north and
east of Lakeland, and the area south of Winter Have/north Lake Wales showed the largest
urbanization.
Although the County has approved conditional uses for 13 developments with over 4,000
residential lots/units (see Table 3-10) in the Rural Development Area (RDA), only one
development (23 lots) has been developed and platted. Approximately 120 lots have been
developed in rural subdivisions (5 acre or larger lots) in the last five years. These developments
represent less than 1% of the lots created in the County in the period between 2004 and 2007.
Almost 11% (2,240) of the lots created in that period are located in the Suburban Development
Area (SDA). The development outside the Urban Development and Urban Growth area is
infrequent and more isolated.
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 34 ~
August 2009
Table 3-10 Polk County Rural Development
Rural Residential Developments
SF (nonProject Name
Units
Residential)
Pine Valley North
100
Pine Valley South
80
Masterpiece Road
101
Lake Easy
23
Lake Streety
71
Horseshoe Creek
11
Tindale Camp Road
114
Rural Mixed-Use Development
SF (nonProject Name
Units
Residential)
Fox Branch Ranch
1043
5 acres
Temple Town
503
54.420 sf
Walk-in-Water Ranch 2440 (not incl. in
35,000 sf
total)
Mammoth Grove
762
10,000
RFL Cypress Land
1,086
5 acres
Holdings
RFL Cypress Land
472
8.7
Holdings II
Mills
476
7.8
4,842
TOTAL
Approval Date
January 2006
January 2006
June 2006
June 2006
2005
September 2006
December 2007
Approval Date
December 2005
January 2006
Pending
2006
May 2006
December 2007
March 2008
Source: Polk County Growth Management, February 2007
The inclusion of agricultural land in the vacant and developable category does not mean that the
County expects all such lands to be developed for urban uses. Many of these areas contain viable
agricultural activities and environmentally sensitive habitats such as floodplains, scrub, high
recharge areas and sinkholes. Additionally, the County and other agencies likely will acquire
additional public lands over time to accommodate the needs for environmental protection, flood
protection, potable water supplies, and recreation.
Using the results of the analysis of the percentage of lots in the RDA, SDA and UDA, we can
anticipate that development in the UDA will continue to increase while the percentage of
development in the RDA and SDA will remain low (1% and 11% respectively). The anticipated
number of units in these two development areas should be about, 370,455 units and thus with a
capacity population of 926,131 persons.
Table 3-11 from Polk County’s Evaluation and Appraisal Report, shows the developable acreage
throughout the county. It is divided into separate land use categories, and shows the capacity for
growth and residential structures for that land use category. This shows the potential for
population growth within the county.
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 35 ~
August 2009
Table 3-11 Developable Acreage by Future Land Use Categories
Future Land Use Categories
Agricultural Residential Rural
(A/RR)
*Agricultural Residential Rural
(A/RR) - 1% of total development
Business Park Center (BPC)
Community Activity Center
(CAC)
Convenience Center (CC)
Commercial Enclave (CE)
CORE
Development of Regional Impact
(DRI)
Employment Center (EC)
High Impact Commercial (HIC)
Industrial (IND)
Institutional (INST)
Linear Commercial CorridorLCC
Leisure Recreation (L/R)
Neighborhood Activity Center
(NAC)
Office Center (OC)
Professional Institutional (PI)
Phosphate Mining (PM)
Preservation (PRESV)
Regional Activity Center (RAC)
Rural Commercial Cluster
Commercial (RCC)
Rural Commercial Cluster
Residential (RCC-R)
Residential High (RH)
Residential Low (RL)
Residential Medium (RM)
Recreation and Open Space
(ROS)
Residential Suburban (RS)
* Residential Suburban (RS) - 1%
of total development
Town Center (TC)
Tourist Commercial Corridor
(TCC)
Developable residential - (minus
Total
Acreage
Developable
Acreage
Population
Capacity
Intensity (SF)
486,598
269,543
53,909
134,772
486,598
269,543
*4,010
*10,025
12,333
6,076
31,761,143
0
890
429
5,604,971
0
148
607
58,161
75
243
16,427
819,045
3,179,740
821
0
0
2,053
21,468
12,006
42,021
105,052
1,546
250
6,878
7,750
2,254
5,017
1,229
41
3,548
2,701
933
3,186
4,916
856
540
203
283
172,185
34,626
1,953
66
202
120,407
1,162
1,441
205
86
1,621
401
801
2,003
1,215
63,701
12,374
913
29,437
6,972
13,691
147,185
69,718
34,228
367,963
174,294
95,667
1,351
588,499
0
58,067
21,432
64,297
160,743
*
21,432
45,400 *
411
334
3,335
838
693
302
22,484,647
719,578
100,459,793
29,416,387
12,186,203
2,428,424
12,290
0
0
0
0
5,879,788
0
866,397
6,144,345
3,933,694,609
25,315
21,967,817
0
756
0
0
0
749,046
0
113,500*
5,085,174
8,339
18,119,002
0
42,057
ARR or non-res)
TOTAL
TOTAL AJUSTED to trend
Density –
Potential
Residential
units
400,996
1,534,705
501,874
(ARR, RS units/pop)
332,200
1,002,491
4,202,179,921
830,501
* # of unit expected to be developed in the SDA and RDA reduced to 11% and 1% based on the 2004-2007 trend analysis under
section 2.5
Source: 2009 Polk County EAR, Compiled by Polk County Growth Management Division & GIS staff, February 2008.
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 36 ~
August 2009
Each hazard affects buildings and infrastructure in a separate manner. To provide further
understanding of the effects of these hazards, a brief discussion is provided for (1) existing
buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities, (2) future buildings, infrastructure, and critical
facilities, and (3) land uses and development trends.
Coastal Storms/Hurricanes
Existing Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – Over 202,125 homes and
businesses would receive moderate to minor damage from a Category 3 hurricane. There are also
723 critical facilities located within the Category 3 storm impact area.
Future Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – There are dozens of lots for sale
throughout Polk County and building will continue until build-out occurs. With growth comes the
need for a larger infrastructure resulting in critical facilities being located in vulnerable areas.
Land Uses and Development Trends – Most future development will occur throughout the
county, but predominantly along the east and northern areas of the county. Because of the
vulnerability to hurricane force winds, future construction is subject to the State’s stringent
building codes, and county zoning requirements regarding flood zones.
Flood
Existing Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – There are no critical facilities
located in the 100-year Flood Plain and only a few sections of road that are normally affected.
Damages are usually minor and repaired quickly.
Future Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – All future construction will continue
to be above the 100-year flood plain.
Land Uses and Development Trends - Development in the 100-year flood plain is strictly
controlled by the County. All new construction must be elevated above the base flood elevation.
Sinkholes
Existing Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – Homes, roads, Fire Stations and
Libraries could all potentially be affected by sinkholes.
Future Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – See the Land Uses and Development
Trends section below.
Land Uses and Development Trends – Like most of Florida, Polk County’s population is
growing and developments will likely to be planned or proposed. The denser the population, the
greater the chance for future damages due to sinkholes.
Wildfire
Existing Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – Few buildings border heavily
wooded areas and even fewer critical facilities.
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 37 ~
August 2009
Future Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – See Land Use and Development
Trend maps in the Introduction.
Land Uses and Development Trends – Most development is in the eastern and northern areas of
Polk County, away from heavily forested acres. Future development is expected to continue this
trend. Those communities that are/may be vulnerable to wildfires are encouraged to follow the
recommendations of the Firewise USA program.
Severe Storms/Tornadoes
Existing Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – Every structure in Polk County
could be damage by a severe storm, tornado or lightning strike.
Future Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – All future construction will be
completed to comply with more stringent building codes/requirements. Damage to roofs and
manufactured homes will be less on average.
Land Uses and Development Trends – Like most of Florida, Polk County’s population is
growing and many developments are planned or proposed. The denser the population, the greater
the chance for future damages.
Drought/Heat Wave
Existing Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – No impact
Future Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – No impact
Land Uses and Development Trends – The more the growth the greater demand on the water
supply. Increased development throughout the county and in the entire region may soon cause
hydrological drought to become a hazard of much greater significance.
Winter Storms/Freezes
Existing Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – No impact
Future Buildings, Infrastructure and Critical Facilities – No impact
Land Uses and Development Trends – As indicated previously, farm lands and groves are
being lost to new areas of development. Most are in 5-acre tracts and are being billed as mini
farms/ranchettes.
LMS – Risk Assessment
~ 38 ~
August 2009