Journal of Plankton Research plankt.oxfordjournals.org J. Plankton Res. (2016) 38(4): 977–992. First published online June 4, 2015 doi:10.1093/plankt/fbv038 Contribution to the Themed Section: Advances in Plankton Modelling and Biodiversity Evaluation Flexible phytoplankton functional type (FlexPFT) model: size-scaling of traits and optimal growth S. LAN SMITH1,2*, MARKUS PAHLOW3, AGOSTINO MERICO4,5, ESTEBAN ACEVEDO-TREJOS4, YOSHIKAZU SASAI1, CHISATO YOSHIKAWA6, KOSEI SASAOKA7, TETSUICHI FUJIKI1, KAZUHIKO MATSUMOTO8 AND MAKIO C. HONDA8 1 ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH GROUP, RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER FOR GLOBAL CHANGE, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 SHOWA-MACHI, KANAZAWA-KU, 2 3 YOKOHAMA, JAPAN, CREST, JAPAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AGENCY, TOKYO, JAPAN, GEOMAR, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH KIEL, KIEL, 4 5 GERMANY, SYSTEMS ECOLOGY, ZMT (LEIBNIZ CENTER FOR TROPICAL MARINE ECOLOGY), BREMEN, GERMANY, JACOBS UNIVERSITY, BREMEN, GERMANY, 6 7 INSTITUTE OF BIOGEOSCIENCES, JAMSTEC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, GLOBAL CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY GROUP, JAMSTEC, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN AND 8 DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL GEOCHEMICAL CYCLE RESEARCH, YOKOSUKA, JAPAN *CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: [email protected] Received December 4, 2014; accepted May 1, 2015 Corresponding editor: Zoe Finkel Recent studies have analysed valuable compilations of data for the size-scaling of phytoplankton traits, but these cannot be employed directly in most large-scale modelling studies, which typically do not explicitly resolve the relevant trait values. Although some recent large-scale modelling studies resolve species composition and sorting within communities, most do not account for the observed flexible response of phytoplankton communities, such as the dynamic acclimation often observed in laboratory experiments. In order to derive a simple yet flexible model of phytoplankton growth that can be useful for a wide variety of ocean modelling applications, we combine two trade-offs, one for growth and the other for nutrient uptake, under the optimality assumption, i.e. that intracellular resources are dynamically allocated to maximize growth rate. This yields an explicit equation for growth as a function of nutrient concentration and daily averaged irradiance. We furthermore show how with this model effective Monod parameter values depend on both the underlying trait values and environmental conditions. We apply this new model to two contrasting time-series observation sites, including idealized simulations of size diversity. The flexible model responds differently compared with an inflexible control, suggesting that acclimation by individual species could impact models of plankton diversity. KEYWORDS: phytoplankton; ecosystem model; trait; acclimation; size-scaling available online at www.plankt.oxfordjournals.org # The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: [email protected] JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j j VOLUME I N T RO D U C T I O N Trait-based modelling is now widely applied to study plankton ecosystems (Verdy et al., 2009; Follows and Dutkiewicz, 2011; Acevedo-Trejos et al., 2014), and size is widely considered a meta- or master trait for phytoplankton ecology (Litchman et al., 2007; Edwards et al., 2012). However, whereas most observation-based size-scalings are reported for traits such as nutrient uptake and subsistence cell quotas (Litchman et al., 2007; Edwards et al., 2012; Marañón et al., 2013), most models of plankton ecosystems, particularly those applied at large scales, are formulated in terms of the Monod equation for growth, without explicitly resolving the dynamics of nutrient uptake or cell quotas. Although the Monod equation for growth and the Michaelis– Menten (MM) equation for nutrient uptake are of exactly the same shape (Healey, 1980), the half-saturation value for growth as applied in the Monod equation must be systematically less than the half-saturation value for nutrient uptake as applied in the MM equation (Morel, 1987). Furthermore, no consistent theoretical relationship has yet been derived for the size-scaling of Monod growth parameters, nor of overall growth response, in terms of commonly reported allometry relations for underlying trait values. This means that the reported allometric scaling relationships for traits, no matter how informative they may be, cannot be applied directly in most large-scale models. Culture experiments with single phytoplankton species (Flynn, 2003) and predator– prey interactions (Yoshida et al., 2003; Fussmann et al., 2005) clearly show flexible response to changing environmental conditions. However, simple models based on Monod kinetics (Flynn, 2003) do not capture this flexibility, and even those based on the more realistic Droop growth model (Caperon, 1968; Droop, 1968), do not account for optimal allocation of intracellular resources. Optimality-based formulations, by combining traits and trade-offs, provide one means of representing such flexible responses without greatly increasing model complexity (Smith et al., 2011). The combination of traits and trade-offs holds further promise (Smith et al., 2014b). For example, while allometric scaling of nutrient uptake parameters based on laboratory studies (Fiksen et al., 2013) does not account for the full range of responses observed by ship-board experiments in the ocean, a model incorporating both size-scaling of traits and the trade-off of optimal uptake (OU) kinetics (Pahlow, 2005; Smith et al., 2009) captured the wide observed range of half-saturation values (Smith et al., 2014a). Moreover, Pahlow and Oschlies (Pahlow and Oschlies, 2013) recently developed an optimalitybased model of phytoplankton growth and used it to give the first theoretical derivation of the Droop equation NUMBER j PAGES – j (Caperon, 1968; Droop, 1968), which had been long established purely on an empirical basis. Here, we derive a relatively simple and flexible model of phytoplankton growth and show that it can be expressed as an equation of Monod form, with effective Monod parameter values depending on both underlying trait values and ambient environmental conditions. This new flexible phytoplankton functional type (FlexPFT) model accounts for the adaptive response to light and nutrient levels in terms of two trade-offs (Fig. 1) for allocation of intracellular resources: (i) carbon versus nitrogen assimilation (Pahlow and Oschlies, 2013), and (ii) affinity for nutrient versus maximum uptake rate (Pahlow, 2005; Smith et al., 2009). This provides a framework for modelling the growth response based on the commonly reported size-scalings for the parameters of the Droop and MM equations. In order to evaluate how the flexible response impacts model performance, we apply the FlexPFT, and an inflexible control model (hereafter “control”), to contrasting time-series from two observation sites in the North Pacific. M O D E L E Q UAT I O N S Balanced growth assumption Burmaster (Burmaster, 1979) showed that, at steady state, the widely applied Monod kinetics can be derived by combining (i) the Droop quota model (Caperon, 1968; Droop, 1968) for growth as a function of intracellular nutrient content, (ii) the MM kinetics (Michaelis and Menten, 1913) applied for nutrient uptake at the cellular level (Dugdale, 1967) as a function of external (ambient) nutrient concentration and (iii) the assumption that the rates of growth, m (day21) and nutrient uptake, V (mol N (mol C)21 day21), are balanced so that V ¼ mQ ð1Þ where Q (mol N:mol C) is intracellular nutrient content per unit C biomass. Doing so results in an equation of Monod form, in which the parameters of the Droop and MM equations are combined to give the effective Monod parameters for growth. The recent global scale study of Ward et al. (Ward et al., 2013) applied this relationship to model the growth response of a size-based phytoplankton community in terms of the underlying size-scalings for the parameters of the empirically based Droop and MM equations. Here, we apply the balanced growth assumption to derive a simple model of phytoplankton growth by combining an optimality-based model for growth, which has recently been used to derive the Droop quota model (Pahlow and Oschlies, 2013), with 978 S. L. SMITH ET AL. j FLEXIBLE PHYTOPLANKTON FUNCTIONAL TYPE (FlexPFT) MODEL Fig. 1. Schematic of the FlexPFT model structure, which combines two trade-offs, from optimal uptake kinetics (Pahlow, 2005; Smith et al., 2009) and the optimal growth model (Pahlow and Oschlies, 2013), respectively, under the assumptions of balanced growth (Burmaster, 1979) and instantaneous optimal resource allocation. OU kinetics (Pahlow, 2005; Smith et al., 2009) for nutrient uptake. Then we show that this provides a novel trait-based framework for modelling the flexible adaptive response of phytoplankton, based on the optimality principle that intracellular resources are dynamically allocated in order to maximize growth rate (Smith et al., 2011, 2014b), and that empirical size-scalings of traits (Supplementary Material online, Appendix SB) can easily be incorporated into this framework to model size diversity. Growth as a function of nutrient quota The Droop-type quota model equation for growth rate, m (day21), is Q0 ð2Þ m ¼ m1 1 Q where m1 is the asymptotic growth rate at infinite cell quota, Q is the nitrogen cell quota, and Q 0 is the subsistence, i.e. absolute minimum, cell quota at which growth rate becomes zero. Based on a recent optimality-based model (Pahlow and Oschlies, 2013), which also relates net-specific growth rate to nutrient quota, we formulate our model in terms of the structural cell quota, Q s, so that 2Q s ð3Þ m¼m ^I 1 Q where m ^ I is the potential maximum growth rate at ambient light ( just as m1 above implicitly accounts for light limitation). Equation (3) is equivalent to the Droop model with Q 0 ¼ 2Q s. The first trade-off relates the actual growth and nutrient uptake rates to their respective potential maximum values via the fractional allocation of resources towards nutrient uptake, fV Qs I m ¼ 1 ð4Þ ^I fV m Q V N ¼ fV V^ N ð5Þ where V^ N is the potential maximum nutrient uptake rate, specified further below. Thus increasing fV will increase the rate of nutrient uptake [Equation (5)], at the expense of reducing the carbon-based growth rate [Equation (4)]. We define the dependence on irradiance, I, and temperature, T, as ^ I ðI; T Þ ¼ m m ^ 0 SðI; T ÞF ðT Þ 979 ð6Þ JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j j VOLUME where m ^ 0 is the potential maximum growth rate. S(I,T) specifies the dependence on light ( ) ^ aI QI SðI; T Þ ¼ 1 exp ð7Þ ^ 0 F ðT Þ m as in Pahlow et al. (Pahlow et al., 2013), where aI is the chl-specific initial slope of growth versus light intensity ^ is the (here assumed constant and independent of size), Q chl:C ratio of the chloroplast and I is the intensity of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). The optimal ^ Q ^ o ; which maximizes the potential lightvalue of Q; limited growth rate [Equation (6)], is calculated by balancing the costs versus benefits of chlorophyll (chl) synthesis on a daily averaged basis (Pahlow et al., 2013): NUMBER zchl Rchl M : I0 ¼ Ld aI The total chl content, Q (g chl (mol C)21), is then Qs ^ Q¼ 1 fV Q Q ð9Þ – fVo ¼ j Qs zN ðQ 2Q s Þ Q ð12Þ or alternatively, in terms of m ^ I and V^ N : fVo ¼ m ^ Rchl aI I þ 0 1 W0 1 þ M exp 1 þ chl Ld m ^0 aI I z m ^0 where z chl (mol C (g chl)21) is the respiratory cost of photosynthesis, RM chl is the loss rate of chl (day21), Ld is the fractional day length (fraction of 24 h), I is the daily averaged irradiance and W0, the zero-branch of Lambert’s W function, which can be calculated numerically. Equation (8) satisfies the optimality condition and is valid only for I . I0, the threshold irradiance below which the respiratory costs outweigh the benefits of pro^ ¼ 0). This threshold irradiance ducing chl (so that Q level is PAGES temperature (8C) and Tref is the reference temperature (taken as 208C). Independent of the specific functions assumed for light, temperature and nutrient dependence, the optimal value of fV is calculated (Pahlow and Oschlies, 2013) by maximizing growth rate subject to the trade-off specified by Equations (4) for growth and (5) for nutrient uptake ^o ¼ 1 Q zchl ð8Þ j m ^ I ðI; T ÞQ s N V^ ðN ; T Þ 2 3 v" ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi !#1 u I u m ^ ðI; T Þ 6 7 t Q þ zN þ 15 41 þ s N V^ ðN ; T Þ ð13Þ where z N is the energetic respiratory cost of assimilating inorganic N, estimated as 0.6 mol C (mol N)21 by Pahlow and Oschlies (Pahlow and Oschlies, 2013). The cell quota under the assumption of optimal resource allocation, Q o, depends on N and I: 2 3 vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi " !#1 u I u m ^ ðI; T Þ 6 7 Q o ¼ Q s 41 þ t 1 þ Q s þ zN 5 N ^ V ðN ; T Þ ð14Þ where the superscript “o” denotes that this value of the cell quota assumes optimal resource allocation. Nutrient uptake as a function of ambient concentration ð10Þ Thus, the model calculates the chl content within the chloroplast, and hence of the whole cell, assuming instantaneous adjustment to the daily averaged irradiance. Arrhenius-type temperature dependence is assumed Ea 1 1 F ðT Þ ¼ exp ð11Þ R T þ 298 Tref þ 298 where Ea is the activation energy (taken here as 4.8 104 J mol21, to approximate the widely applied “Q 10 ¼ 2,” i.e. doubling of rate for a temperature increase from 10 to 208C), R is the gas constant (8.3145 J (mol K)21), T is The affinity-based equation for nutrient uptake rate, V (mol N (mol C)21 day21), is V ¼ Vmax AN Vmax þ AN ð15Þ where Vmax is the maximum uptake rate (mol N (mol C)21 day21), A is the affinity (m3 (mmol C)21 day21) and N is the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentration (mmol N m23). The second trade-off is between nutrient affinity and maximum uptake rate, as specified by OU kinetics (Pahlow, 2005; Smith et al., 2009). This trade-off is defined in terms of the fractional allocation, fA, of nitrogenous resources for nutrient uptake, such that increasing fA increases nutrient affinity, A ¼ fAA0, at the expense of a 980 S. L. SMITH ET AL. j FLEXIBLE PHYTOPLANKTON FUNCTIONAL TYPE (FlexPFT) MODEL decrease in maximum uptake rate, Vmax ¼ (1 2 fA)V0, where A0 and V0 are the potential maximum values of affinity and maximum uptake rate, respectively. Incorporating this trade-off, the potential maximum uptake rate is are optimized instantaneously, gives a single equation for growth rate explicitly in terms of the nutrient concentration, N: " I ð1 fA ÞV0 fA A0 N V ð fA ; N Þ ¼ ð1 fA ÞV0 þ fA A0 N ^N mðI ; N ; T Þ ¼ m ^ ðI; T Þ 1 þ Q 0 ð16Þ 0 13 vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi !1ffi u I u 2 m ^ ðI; T Þ B C7 @1 t1 þ þ zN A5 Q 0 V^ N ðN ; T Þ This will be multiplied by the allocation factor fV described above to obtain the actual rate. Independent of fV, the optimal allocation of resources for maximizing V^ N is then (Pahlow, 2005) fAo rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 1 A0 N ¼ 1þ V0 ð17Þ which can be substituted back into Equation (16) to give the nutrient-limited uptake rate assuming instantaneous optimization of fA (Pahlow, 2005; Smith et al., 2009). The actual uptake rate depends upon the allocation factor fV as per Equation (5), and the actual values of uptake parameters are ^0 A0 ¼ fV A ð18Þ V0 ¼ fV F ðT ÞV^0 ð19Þ where affinity is assumed not to depend on temperature. Assuming instantaneous optimization of fA, the potential nutrient uptake rate is V^ N ðN ; T Þ ¼ V^ N q0ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ^ 0 Þ þ 2 ðV^ 0 N =A ^0 Þ þ N ðV^ 0 =A ð22Þ The cell quota as a function of light intensity and nutrient concentration, Equation (14), can then be expressed as: 2 3 vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi " !#1 u I u Q06 Q0 m ^ ðI; T Þ 7 t þ zN Qo¼ 41 þ 1 þ 5 2 2 V^ N ðN ; T Þ ð23Þ For the control model, the rates of C-based growth and nutrient uptake are calculated independently (based on fixed values of fA and fV), and the cell quota is calculated dynamically from the balanced growth assumption, Equation (1). The rate of change of phytoplankton biomass, BP (mmol C m23), is then dBP ¼ ðmnet ðI; N ; T Þ MBP ÞBP dt ð20Þ mðI; N ; T Þ ¼ ^0 N m ^ I ðI; T ÞfVo ð1 fAo ÞV^ 0 fAo A I o ^ m ^ I ðI; T ÞQ 0 ^ ðI; T ÞQ 0 ð1 fA ÞV 0 þ ðm o o ^ o^ þ fV ð1 fA ÞV 0 Þ fA A0 N ð21Þ Note that we have employed the equality Q 0 ¼ 2Q s. Substituting Equations (13) and (17), under the assumption that the fractional resource allocations, fA and fV, ð24Þ where m net is the net-specific growth rate, and M is the specific mortality rate, which implicitly represents losses to grazing. Combining growth and uptake Combining Equations (3) and (16) under the balanced growth assumption, Equation (1), and substituting Equations (18) and (19) gives the growth rate as a function of external nutrient concentration and light level, in an equation of the same form as Equation (15) for nutrient uptake ! m ^ I ðI; T Þ N þz : N V^ ðN ; T Þ mnet ðI; N ; T Þ ¼ mðI; N ; T Þ Rchl ð25Þ Here R chl is the biomass-specific respiratory cost of maintaining chl (Pahlow et al., 2013): chl ^ Rchl ðI; N ; T Þ ¼ ðm ^ I ðI; T Þ þ Rchl M Þz Q Qs fv 1 Q ðI; N ; T Þ ð26Þ Effective values of Monod parameters Here we examine how our optimality-based model relates to the well-known Monod growth kinetics, which are widely applied in existing phytoplankton models as well as for interpreting observations. The FlexPFT constitutes a novel framework for expressing effective values of 981 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j j VOLUME parameters for the Monod growth equation in terms of more commonly reported trait values (e.g. nutrient uptake parameters and subsistence cell quotas), which cannot be utilized directly in the Monod equation. Equation (21) can be re-arranged into Monod form: meff N m ¼ effmax Km þ N ð27Þ where the effective Monod parameter values are: meff max ¼ m ^ I fVo ð1 fAo ÞV^ 0 m ^ Q0 þ fVo ð1 fAo ÞV^ 0 I Kmeff ¼ Q0 meff ^ 0 max fVo fAo A ð28Þ eff Vmax ð1 fAo ÞV^ 0 ¼ ^0 Aeff fAo A ð30Þ Then, the half-saturation values for growth and uptake are related as follows: Kmeff ¼ m ^ I Q0 KVeff m ^ I Q0 þ fVo ð1 fAo ÞV^ 0 ð31Þ which shows that Kmeff , KVeff . Morel (Morel, 1987) showed this inequality via a different relationship in terms of the ratio of the maximum and minimum cell quotas multiplied with the ratio of short- to long-term maximum uptake rates. Equation (31) furthermore provides a basis for expressing the size-scaling of Kmeff in terms of the size-scalings of MM parameters. It is also informative to consider the effective growth-based affinity (the initial slope of growth rate vs. nutrient concentration): Aeff m ^0 Aeff f of oA ¼ ¼ V A Q0 Q0 ð32Þ which is a better metric of competitive ability for nutrient than the half-saturation constant of MM/Monod kinetics (Button, 1978; Healey, 1980; Smith et al., 2014b). With this optimality-based formulation the growth-based affinity j PAGES – j (Aeff m ) varies with environmental conditions, as resources are dynamically allocated so as to maximize growth rate. Mass balance for nutrient and detritus The mass balance for DIN must account for the balanced growth assumption, which implies that the cell quota instantaneously adjusts to changing nutrient concentration and (daily averaged) light in the ocean environment. This results (Supplementary Material online, Appendix SA) in the following equation for nutrient concentration N: dN ¼ dt ð29Þ both of which vary with the flexible response through the two fractional allocations, fA and fV . For comparison with the widely reported halfsaturation constants based on the MM equation for nutrient uptake, the expression for Kmeff can be re-written in terms of KVeff ; the half-saturation constant for nutrient uptake, which can be expressed in terms of the OU parameters as: KVeff ¼ NUMBER kd DN þ km ðNb N Þ þ EN ðmnet ðI; N ; T ÞQ þð@Q =@IÞðdI=dtÞÞBP 1 þ ð@Q =@N ÞBP ð33Þ where kdDN is the source from regeneration of detritus, km(Nb 2 N) accounts for mixing across the bottom of the mixed layer, below which concentration Nb is prescribed as dynamic forcing, EN is entrainment of nutrients as the mixed layer deepens (Supplementary Material online, Appendix SA). The term in the denominator accounts for the fact that as nutrient concentration changes, the cell quota changes instantaneously in the same direction (balanced growth), because of the assumption of an instantaneous balance between nutrient uptake and growth. The derivative of the cell quota with respect to the nutrient concentration is positive, so that the denominator is greater than unity and, therefore, this model will produce slower changes in concentration of nutrients, compared with models that resolve explicitly the dynamics of the cell quota (i.e. unbalanced growth). The mass balance for detrital nitrogen, DN, is: hv i dDN s ¼ QMmax F ðT ÞBP2 þ kd F ðT Þ DN dt H ð34Þ where vs (m day21) is the sinking rate of detritus, H is the mixed layer depth ( prescribed as a time-varying forcing), and kd (day21) is the specific degradation rate of detritus. S I M U L AT I O N S This simple set-up was chosen not to realistically reproduce the time-series observations in their entirety, but rather to test the performance of the FlexPFT model versus the control model. In the latter, fV [Equations (4) ^ [Equation (7)] and fA [Equation (16)] were and (5)], Q each fixed at a constant value. Each version of the ecosystem model included only three compartments: phytoplankton C biomass for a single PFT (BP), DIN (N) and 982 S. L. SMITH ET AL. j FLEXIBLE PHYTOPLANKTON FUNCTIONAL TYPE (FlexPFT) MODEL detrital N (DN). Zooplankton was simulated only implicitly as a mortality term (quadratic in BP). Comparison to time-series sites A zero-dimensional (box) model of the oceanic mixed layer, based on the model of Spitz et al. (Spitz et al., 2001), was applied with variable mixed layer depth prescribed as forcing for two contrasting time-series observation sites (Fig. 2). Entrainment of nutrients by deepening of the mixed layer was simulated here based on a variable nutrient concentration at the bottom of the mixed layer, which was prescribed as forcing based on the World Ocean Atlas (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/WOA09/ pr_woa09.html). The Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (Smith, 2011) was used to fit values of selected model parameters to the observations (averaged within the mixed layer) at both sites simultaneously and for each model version. Thus for each model, an ensemble of simulations was conducted and the Akaike Information Criterion, as calculated based on the ensemble mean log likelihood, was the metric for goodness of fit. This results in an ensemble of parameter values and a corresponding ensemble of simulated values, which can be used to assess the overall agreement of each model with the observations. Common values for both observation sites were fitted for five key phytoplankton traits (i.e. model parameters): ^ 0 and V^0 ; aI, Q 0, A ^ 0 and V^0 ; as well as the respiration A rate for chl maintenance, Rchl M ; and mortality rate conK2 S1 and Mmax ; separately for each station, restants, Mmax ^ spectively. For the control model, a constant value for Q was also fitted (common to both sites). Initial estimates for the trait values were obtained from the size-scalings in Table I, assuming a cell size of 1 mm. Size-based multi-species model The model set-up above was applied with 200 PFTs having size-scaled traits (Table I and Supplementary Material online, Appendix SB), but without fitting the models to the data. Size classes were evenly distributed in log space over the range 0.2– 50 mm ESD, for both the FlexPFT and the control model. Again, effects of zooplankton were included only implicitly through the mortality term, which was modified to reproduce competitive exclusion (Record et al., 2013) by making the mortality rate for each PFT dependent on the mean concentration P ; and its own concentration, BP,i. Thus, (of all PFTs), B the mortality rate of the ith PFT becomes: 1f 1þf BPi mi ¼ Mmax B P ð35Þ where f is a parameter (0, 1) which determines the degree of competitive exclusion. With f ¼ 1, this expression reduces to an independent quadratic mortality term for each PFT. With f ¼ 0, competitive exclusion is strong because of the dependence on the mean concentration, P : In order to compare the results with and without B competitive exclusion, we conducted simulations with f ¼ 0 and f ¼ 1, with both models. We quantified the simulated size diversity using a continuous diversity index, here denoted h, which was estimated for the ensemble of discrete PFTs as described by Quintana et al. (Quintana et al., 2008). They denoted this quantity m, but we have changed the notation to avoid confusion with the growth rate. Time-series observation sites Fig. 2. Locations of time-series observation sites, subarctic station K2 and subtropical station S1, in the North Pacific. We applied the models to subarctic station K2 (478N, 1608E, water depth 5300 m) and subtropical station S1 (308N, 1458E, water depth 5800 m), both of which are maintained by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). Between 2010 and 2013, observations were conducted of plankton and biogeochemistry in order to allow comparative studies of the lower trophic ecosystems and biological pump, and thus to inform modelling studies of how biological activity and material cycles may change in the future. At both stations, parameters such as nutrients, chl, primary 983 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j VOLUME j NUMBER j PAGES – j Table I: Values of model parameters and size-scaling factors Parameters Value Units Description (reference) aC Q C am m ^ 0 aQ Q 0 aA A0 aV V0 aI aI chl RM z chl zN Ea K2 Mmax S1 Mmax vs kd km 2.8 0.0180 0.0 5.0 20.18 0.039 20.80 0.15 0.2 5.0 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 4.8 104 1.0 1.0 10 0.50 0.1 – pmol C cell21 Size-scaling exponent for carbon content (Menden-Deuer and Lessard, 2000) Carbon content per cell (Menden-Deuer and Lessard, 2000) Size-scaling exponent for maximum growth rate (null hypothesis) Potential maximum growth rate (Pahlow et al., 2013) Size-scaling exponent for cell quota (Edwards et al., 2012) Minimum (subsistence) cell quota (Edwards et al., 2012) Size-scaling exponent for affinity (heuristic assumption) Potential maximum nutrient affinity (Pahlow et al., 2013) Size-scaling exponent for maximum uptake rate (Marañón et al., 2013) Potential maximum uptake rate (Pahlow et al., 2013) Size-scaling exponent for chl-specific initial slope Chl-specific initial slope of growth versus irradiance (Pahlow et al., 2013) Loss rate of chlorophyll (Pahlow et al., 2013) Cost of chlorophyll synthesis (Pahlow et al., 2013) Cost of nitrogen assimilation (Pahlow et al., 2013) Energy of activation Mortality rate coefficient at station K2 Mortality rate coefficient at station S1 Sinking velocity of detritus Degradation (remineralization) rate of detritus Mixing rate at bottom of mixed layer (Spitz et al., 2001) day21 – mol N (mol C)21 – m3 (mmol C)21 day21 – mol N (mol C)21 day21 – m2 E21 mol (g chl)21 day21 mol C (g chl)21 mol C (mol N)21 J mol21 m3 (mmol C)21 day21 m3 (mmol C)21 day21 m day21 day21 day21 Pre-exponential factors, denoted by asterisks, apply at l ¼ 0 (ESD ¼ 1 mm), from reported size-scaling relationships (Edwards et al., 2012) or from Wirtz (Wirtz, 2013). Other rates and parameters are based on the values of Pahlow et al. (Pahlow et al., 2013) and Wirtz (Wirtz, 2013). Quantities reported on a per cell basis were converted to per mol C basis using reported values of C content per cell (Menden-Deuer and Lessard, 2000). Distinct values of the mortality rate for phytoplankton were fitted (Table II) for each station, respectively. Table II: Fitted values of model parameters Ensemble mean [+SD] Parameter Initial estimate FlexPFT Control model Units ^ 0 m aI A0 V0 Q 0 chl RM K2 Mmax S1 Mmax 5.0 1.0 0.15 5.0 0.039 0.10 1.0 1.0 0.6 5.2 [+0.6] 0.24 [+0.05] 0.11 [+0.02] 5.0 [+0.6] 0.037 [+0.0008] 0.10 [+0.01] 0.50 [+0.08] 0.11 [+0.02] NA 5.6 [+0.5] 1.1 [+0.1] 0.085 [+0.02] 1.6 [+0.17] 0.057 [+0.0006] 0.10 [+0.01] 0.67 [+0.1] 0.092 [+0.01] 0.59 [+0.04] day21 m2 E21 mol (g chl)21 m3 (mmol C)21 day21 mol N (mol C)21 day21 mol N (mol C)21 day21 m3 (mmol C)21 day21 m3 (mmol C)21 day21 g chl (mol C)21 ^ Q For each model, the Adaptive Metropolis algorithm was run for an ensemble of 2 105 simulations and convergence was verified. Statistics of the fits overwhelmingly favoured the FlexPFT. Ensemble mean log likelihoods were 653 for the FlexPFT model and 589 for the control model, giving Akaike weights (Anderson et al., 2000) of .0.999 for the FlexPFT and ,0.001 for the control model. productivity and settling particles were observed seasonally by research vessels and mooring systems (Honda et al. submitted to Journal of Oceanography and references therein). Data used herein from observations of nutrients, chl and primary production (PP) are available online at http://ebcrpa.jamstec.go.jp/k2s1/en/. Forcing for the model consisted of daily averaged PAR from the MODIS satellite product. Temperatures and mixed layer depths were based on temperature and salinity observed by autonomous ARGO floats (http://apdrc.soest.hawaii .edu/argo/). The mixed layer was calculated as the depth at which the gradient of potential density reached 0.03 (kg m23) m21. R E S U LT S Flexible response The FlexPFT and control were fitted simultaneously to the data from both stations, resulting in a single parameter set for each model (Table II). By dynamically allocating resources to maximize growth rate, the FlexPFT maintains a faster growth rate as either light or nutrient becomes limiting, compared with the control (Fig. 3). Resource allocation in the FlexPFT model depends on the ambient light and nutrient environment, shifting more toward nutrient uptake rather than carbon assimilation at subtropical station S1, and vice versa at subarctic 984 S. L. SMITH ET AL. j FLEXIBLE PHYTOPLANKTON FUNCTIONAL TYPE (FlexPFT) MODEL Fig. 3. Growth rate (A) versus nutrient concentration, for different light levels (denoted by line thickness), and (B) versus light level for different nutrient concentrations (denoted by line thickness), for the flexible model, FlexPFT (orange lines) in which the allocation of internal resources is calculated dynamically to optimize growth rate, and for the control model (grey lines), in which the allocation of resources is fixed, giving lower growth rates as either resource becomes limiting. Values of model parameters are for a cell size of 1 mm (Table I), and for the control model ^ ¼ 0.7 g chl (mol C)21. fA ¼ 0.5, fV ¼ 0.25 and Q Fig. 4. Modelled values of optimal fractional resource allocation for the optimal uptake trade-off (left column) and the optimal growth trade-off (right column) as calculated for the FlexPFT model at subarctic station K2 (A and B, top row) and subtropical station S1 (C and D, bottom row), for the 4 years modelled. Values on the horizontal axes increase to the left. Dynamic resource allocation (orange lines) shifts to higher (lower) values of both allocation factors during summer (winter) at each station, and their means are higher at nutrient-poor, high-light station S1, compared with the relatively high-nutrient, lower light station K2. Constant fractional allocations (grey vertical lines) were assumed for the control model. 985 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j j VOLUME NUMBER j PAGES – j Fig. 5. Model results for subarctic station K2 with the FlexPFT (orange lines), the control (grey lines) and data (dots) from the time-series observations averaged over the mixed layer depth (A through C only). (A) Primary production, (B) dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), (C) chlorophyll, (D) chl:C ratio, (E) phytoplankton biomass and (F) N-cell quota. station K2 (Fig. 4). Furthermore, the FlexPFT responds dynamically to seasonal changes, whereas resource allocation is fixed in the control. At subarctic station K2 (Fig. 5), the FlexPFT model reproduces better the magnitude and timing of PP and chl, compared with the control. chl is also much more variable in the FlexPFT model, compared with the control, because of the active regulation of chl content, Equation (8). The simulated patterns are more similar at subtropical station S1 (Fig. 6). Simulated values over the ensemble range for the FlexPFT agree better with the observations, compared with the control (Fig. 7). The FlexPFT model reproduces better the seasonality and magnitude of phytoplankton production at these two contrasting locations, even though one more degree of freedom was allowed in fitting the control (nine parameters fitted) versus the FlexPFT (eight parameters fitted). Whereas the FlexPFT model calculates the chl:C ^ which ratio dynamically, the control assumes constant Q; was fitted as a free parameter. Thus, even in the control model, the whole-cell chl:C ratio varies with the cell quota, Q , via Equation (10). This allows some variation of the overall chl content in the control model, although much less than for the FlexPFT model. Size-scalings for effective Monod parameters Size-scalings of effective Monod parameters are obtained by substituting the size-scalings of trait values into Equations (27), (28), (29) and for the growth-based affinity, Equation (32). Figure 8 shows the resulting curves, based on the FlexPFT model, for growth rate versus DIN concentration and the effective values of Monod 986 S. L. SMITH ET AL. j FLEXIBLE PHYTOPLANKTON FUNCTIONAL TYPE (FlexPFT) MODEL Fig. 6. Model results for subtropical station S1 (same notation as Fig. 4). parameters for different cell sizes, at different levels of light limitation. The effective maximum growth rate is greatest at some intermediate size, and larger sizes are favoured at higher ambient nutrient concentrations (Fig. 8A and B). Moreover, compared with reported halfsaturation values for uptake, half-saturation values for growth are consistently lower and tend to increase less steeply with cell size (Fig. 8C and D). This same relationship is also clear in terms of the growth-based affinity, which decreases with both ambient nutrient concentration and cell size (Fig. 8E and F). Comparison of modelled size diversity For the simulations without competitive exclusion ( f ¼ 1), model output (not shown) was similar to that from the single PFT models, after increasing the mortality rate coefficient, Mmax by a factor of 200 (to account for the fact that the biomass was initially evenly divided among the 200 PFTs). With competitive exclusion, results were also similar (not shown) to the single PFT models, using the same value of Mmax (Table II). Although the overall simulated response was similar to the single PFT models, either with or without competitive exclusion, the simulated log-mean size and size diversity did depend strongly on whether or not competitive exclusion was modelled (Fig. 9). Both models reached a greater log-mean size at Station K2 than at Station S1, as expected given the advantage of large (vs. small) cells under high (vs. low) nutrient conditions. The FlexPFT maintained greater size diversity overall in the simulations without competitive exclusion (Fig. 9C and D), particularly during summer through autumn, when the control lost more size diversity under low-nutrient conditions. The control model tended to lose diversity faster over the 3-year period, both with (Fig. 9C and D) and without 987 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j j VOLUME NUMBER j PAGES – j Fig. 7. Comparison of the ensemble mean simulated values (circles) on the vertical (FlexPFT in orange, control in grey) versus the corresponding observed values on the horizontal for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, DIN (A and B), chlorophyll (C and D) and primary production, PP (E and F) at stns. K2 (left column) and S1 (right column). Observed values are averages within the mixed layer, the same as shown in Figs 3 and 4. Solid diagonal lines show the 1:1 relationship. RMSEs of the ensemble means versus observations are also shown in each panel. Vertical lines (with slight horizontal offset for the two models) centred on each circle show the 90% quantile range from the adaptive metropolis ensemble of simulations, which reveals that the FlexPFT comes closer to covering the observations. (Fig. 9G and H) competitive exclusion, and its size diversity was more sensitive to seasonal cycles at nutrient-rich station K2. With competitive exclusion, both models lost size diversity over time as expected (Fig. 9G and H) although at both stations, the flexible model maintained somewhat greater diversity compared with the control. At nutrient-rich station K2, the median size was smaller by approximately a factor of 2 for the FlexPFT compared with the control. 988 S. L. SMITH ET AL. j FLEXIBLE PHYTOPLANKTON FUNCTIONAL TYPE (FlexPFT) MODEL Fig. 8. Size-scalings of effective Monod parameters for growth, as a function of cell size (ESD for equivalent spherical diameter) as simulated for different ambient nutrient concentrations (N), under light-limited (left) and light replete (right) conditions. Effective maximum growth rate (A and B), half-saturation values for growth (Km) and uptake (KV), respectively, with data for the latter from laboratory experiments (open circles) as compiled by Edwards et al. (Edwards et al., 2012) (C and D), and modelled growth-based affinity and affinity for nutrient uptake, respectively (E and F). DISCUSSION Although trait-based models and size-scalings of traits are currently much discussed in plankton ecology, few modelling studies have actually applied such scalings and tested model output against oceanographic observations. Among these, Verdy et al. (Verdy et al., 2009) applied empirical allometric scalings within their model, which is a valuable step for assessing the implications of the size-scalings based on laboratory studies. However, their empirical model did not account for either intra- or interspecific flexible responses. Ward et al. (Ward et al., 2013) went further by applying empirical allometry relations in a global scale model, thus accounting for variations in cell quotas but not for other flexible resource allocations. Wirtz (Wirtz, 2013) developed a different model, which allows for flexibility via multiple trade-offs, to investigate niche formation in plankton communities. Most recently, Acevedo-Trejos et al. (Acevedo-Trejos et al., 2014) applied a size-based model to capture a glimpse of the future composition of phytoplankton communities in two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean under different climate change scenarios, and Terseleer et al. (Terseleer et al., 2014) tested a size-based model of diatoms against observations from a eutrophic coastal area of the North Sea. Our new FlexPFT model accounts for the flexible response of phytoplankton subject to two eco-physiological trade-offs and can easily be combined with empirically based allometric relations for traits. Its optimality-based 989 JOURNAL OF PLANKTON RESEARCH j VOLUME j NUMBER j PAGES – j Fig. 9. Median size, exp(l ), where l is the mean loge(ESD) and size diversity, h (Quintana et al., 2008) for simulations with 200 phytoplankton PFTs with size-scaling of traits (Table I and Supplementary Material online, Appendix SB) for stns. K2 (left) and S1 (right). Initial biomass was evenly divided among size classes. Without competitive exclusion (A–D), median size is similar for the FlexPFT (black lines) has greater median size at stn. S1 compared to the inflexible control model (dashed grey lines), and the FlexPFT maintains greater size diversity at both sites. With competitive exclusion (E–H), the control has greater median size at stn. K2, the FlexPFT maintains greater size diversity than the inflexible control at both sites, and size diversity declines over time in all cases. formulation reproduces better the pattern of blooming at the two contrasting time-series sites (Figs 5 and 6) compared with the control model. Previous modelling studies (Pahlow, 2005; Wirtz and Pahlow, 2010; Pahlow et al., 2013) have found that accounting for optimal intracellular resource allocation results in better agreement with laboratory experiments. The FlexPFT model is simple enough to be applied in large-scale models of the ocean, and would provide a means of accounting for the flexible response of phytoplankton under changing environmental conditions. This model also considers the energetic costs of synthesizing and maintaining chl and associated biomolecules. By coupling this FlexPFT model with physical models of the ocean, future studies can examine how the flexible response itself, as well as different assumptions about size-scalings of key traits, contribute to determining biogeographical patterns of phytoplankton growth and community composition. 990 S. L. SMITH ET AL. j FLEXIBLE PHYTOPLANKTON FUNCTIONAL TYPE (FlexPFT) MODEL Idealized simulations applying size-scalings for key traits have revealed differences in median size and size diversity for the FlexPFT compared with the control. This suggests that including the flexible response of individual PFTs in multispecies models may indeed produce different results in terms of size diversity, compared with existing models in which the individual PFTs do not acclimate to changing environmental conditions (e.g. Ward et al., 2013). We compared results with and without competitive exclusion using an implicit formulation in terms of mortality (Record et al., 2013) as a simplistic way to represent the maintenance of diversity by the “Kill-the-Winner” (KTW) grazing response (Vallina et al., 2014b). Accounting for the flexible response of both predator and prey in a theoretical model, Mougi (Mougi, 2012) found quite different dynamics compared with inflexible models. Future studies should therefore test the effects of the flexible response of phytoplankton in combination with an explicit model of the KTW grazing response by zooplankton, which will likely yield different dynamics and greater diversity (Vallina et al., 2014a). Our study only accounts for environmental variability by imposing time-dependent forcing for mixed layer depth, light, temperature and nutrient concentration. Future studies using spatially explicit physical –ecological models will be able to better examine the effects of environmental variability and transport on size diversity. Furthermore, Mandal et al. (Mandal et al., 2014) have recently shown that accounting for realistic spatial variability at the mm scale leads to quite different response of a typical inflexible phytoplankton PFT, compared with the usual assumption of uniform concentrations of nutrient and phytoplankton within each grid cell. Future studies should also consider eco-physiological flexibility and environmental variability (at various scales) in combination, given that the former is the result of natural selection subject to the latter. Our new and relatively simple FlexPFT model reproduces better the magnitude and seasonality of production and chl observed at two contrasting time-series stations in the North Pacific, compared with the control. This new model can be applied as a single PFT without size-scaling of traits (as in our application to the two time-series sites) or to model size-structured communities. The latter can be done either by assigning different trait values to PFTs representing discretely resolved cell sizes (Ward et al., 2013) or in an “adaptive dynamics” framework representing a continuous distribution of cell sizes and associated trait values (Merico et al., 2009). The new model presented herein provides a framework for testing the overall effect of allometric trait scalings based on laboratory experiments on phytoplankton growth and size diversity. This modelling framework, coupled with physical ocean models, can help to resolve some of the considerable uncertainty that remains regarding size-scalings of traits and their combined net effects on growth (Wirtz, 2013; Marañón et al., 2013), by providing testable predictions for comparison with oceanic observations and further laboratory studies. S U P P L E M E N TA RY DATA Supplementary data can be found online at http://plankt. oxfordjournals.org. AC K N OW L E D G E M E N T S We thank Sergio Vallina for helpful suggestions concerning the description of the model and results, and also the two anonymous reviewers whose comments helped us to substantially improve the manuscript. We gratefully acknowledge funding from a CREST Project (PI: SLS) provided by the Japan Science and Technology Agency. 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