The Marriage of Nuclear with
Natural Gas: Low Emission
Affordable Electricity
OSPE Energy Seminar
OSPE presentations can be downloaded at:
https://www.ospe.on.ca/presentations
OSPE Energy Task Force
May 2016
The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
Outline of Presentation
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Data Sources
Natural Gas Is Key to a Low Emission Affordable Future
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Ontario’s Power System
Creating a Low Emission Affordable Future
The Electrical Demand Profile
The Optimum Roles for NG, Nuclear and Renewables
Generation Costs
Energy Policy Implications
Q&A period.
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The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
Data Sources for Today’s Presentation
 Electrical supply and demand data was obtained from the Independent
Electricity System Operator (IESO) website at:
www.ieso.ca
 Cost data for Ontario’s electricity sector was obtained from the IESO website
above and from the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) website at:
http://www.ontarioenergyboard.ca/OEB
 The Ontario Society of Professional Engineers (OSPE) reports and seminars
on Ontario’s electricity system and energy policy are available at:
https://www.ospe.on.ca/publications/reports
https://www.ospe.on.ca/presentations
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The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
Natural Gas Is Key to a Low Emission Affordable Future
 In Dec 2015 Ontario was the first mixed generation power system in the world to
achieve an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases compared to 1990 !
 That’s 35 years earlier than the 2050 date in the international goal.
 Ontario accomplished this goal in only 12 years from 2003 to 2015.
 One key decision was to phase out coal generation by 2014.
 The world thinks this was accomplished by replacing coal with wind and solar
generation. It is true that wind and solar generation contributed to this
achievement. However …
 What is not well understood by the global community is that the lion share (~90%)
of the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions occurred because of the partnership
between natural gas and nuclear generation !
 Ontario now produces electricity at less than 40 kg CO2 per MWh.
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The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Ontario’s Power System
5
The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
Creating a Low Emission Affordable Future
 That’s right – low emission affordable electricity that meets the global 2050
greenhouse gas reduction goal can and should include natural gas in the supply
mix !
 Many global electricity systems operate at 500 to 700 kg CO2 per MWh.
 Natural gas generation on its own operates at ~400 kg CO2 per MWh or higher.
 A low greenhouse gas emission power system (below 100 kg CO2 per MWh)
requires:
 A dependable zero emitting base-load energy source.
 A dependable moderately emitting peak load energy source.
 Natural gas provides dependability at reasonable cost and moderate emissions
and provides operational reserve at very low cost and very low emissions.
 Natural gas is a key supply option for affordable low emission electricity.
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The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
7
The Electrical Demand Profile
2015 Transmission System Total Electrical Demand
30,000
100 % OF PEAK
25,000
90 % OF PEAK
80 % OF PEAK
20,000
70 % OF PEAK
MW
15,000
60 % OF PEAK
Total Electrical Demand - January 7, 2015 Shown
47 % OF PEAK
10,000
MAX DAILY LOAD
30,000
MIN DAILY LOAD
5,000
5,000
0
MAX DAILY LOAD
HOURLY LOAD
MIN DAILY LOAD
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
10,000
Hours of the Day (EST)
27-Dec
27-Nov
28-Oct
28-Sep
29-Aug
30-Jul
30-Jun
31-May
01-Apr
01-May
15,000
02-Mar
MW
31-Jan
0
20,000
01-Jan
25,000
Peak load region – natural gas, solar and wind
can supply low emission affordable electricity.
Base load region – hydroelectric and nuclear can
supply zero emission affordable electricity.
The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
The Optimum Roles for Natural Gas, Nuclear and Renewables
 Let’s look at each low emission supply technology briefly.
 Variable renewables (wind and solar) – most favored by the public but they need a
dependable, flexible, low cost backup. In North America, natural gas is the lowest
cost dependable backup for variable renewables.
 Good news ? Yes - for peak load but not necessarily for base load !
 A power system with only wind and solar with natural gas backup can reduce
greenhouse gas emissions down to about 150 to 200 kg CO2 per MWh. That’s a 40
to 60% reduction for high emission power systems but that combination won’t
deliver an 80% reduction and can actually increase emissions on clean power
systems that currently operate below 150 to 200 kg CO2 per MWh.
 Wind and solar generation need storage as a partner to achieve emission
reductions of 80% or greater. Storage is currently very expensive and is not 100%
efficient.
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The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
The Optimum Roles for Natural Gas, Nuclear and Renewables
 Hydroelectric – a great partner if you can find enough capacity. Most jurisdictions
don’t have enough to achieve 80% reduction if natural gas provides the rest.
 Bio-energy – another great partner if you can find enough capacity. Most
jurisdictions have more energy demand than available bio-energy sources. So we
can’t achieve 80% reduction if natural gas provides the rest.
 Nuclear – in Ontario each installed kW of capacity is capable of lowering
greenhouse gas emissions 6x more than solar, 2.6x more than wind and 1.7x more
than hydroelectric due to the high capacity factor of nuclear units of 85 to 90%.
 Nuclear needs a dependable, flexible, low cost partner to supply peak demand
and operating reserve.
 Nuclear can supply low cost, low emission thermal energy (steam) to reduce
emissions in other sectors.
 Natural gas & nuclear make ideal partners.
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The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
10
Generation Costs
 While electricity commodity rates rose rapidly from 2003 to 2015 from under 5
cents/kWh, they are still affordable at 10.1 cents/kWh in 2015 for residential and
small businesses and 6.3 cents/kWh for large industrials (2)(3).
2015
Existing Plants
CAN cents/kWh (2)
2015
Electricity
Output (3)
2020
New Plants
CAN cents/kWh (4)
Hydroelectric
5.6
23.1 %
n/a
Nuclear
6.6
58.8 %
11.0
Wind
12.5
6.5 %
8.9
Natural Gas
12.7 (1)
9.8 %
12.3 (1)
Bio-energy
21.1
0.3%
n/a
Solar PV
47.3
1.5 %
10.5/16.2 (5)
Plant Type
(1) NG plant costs reflect curtailment to 17%
capacity factor. Costs are for gas at $2 US/M.BTU.
Price rises 0.8 cents/kWh per $1 US for NG and 1.2
cents/kWh for each $30 CAN/tonne CO2 emissions.
(2) OEB data.
(3) IESO data adjusted by distribution supply.
(4) OSPE study “Ontario’s Energy Dilemma”.
(5) Large solar farms/small rooftop solar.
The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
Energy Policy Implications
 Ontario has invested up to ~$250 CAN per tonne of carbon dioxide reduction to
achieve the 80% reduction in the electrical sector (1).
 Greenhouse gas emission reductions in other sectors will be more expensive to
achieve because natural gas can currently supply thermal energy at 2 to 5x less cost
than electricity.
 To achieve lower greenhouse gas emissions, energy policies can:
 Raise the penalties (price) for greenhouse gas emissions, or
 Subsidize use of clean electricity instead of fossil fuels, or
 Mandate energy supply choices through regulation where those choices are
not sufficiently incented by emission penalties or fuel conversion subsidies, or
 Combine these approaches to optimize costs and emissions without creating
insurmountable competitive hurdles for our trade exposed businesses.
(1) Data from the 2015 Ontario
Auditor General’s report.
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The Marriage of Nuclear with Natural Gas:
Low Emission Affordable Electricity
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