French Presidential Election
BRIEFING
[email protected]
23rd March 2017
Presented To:
Presidential candidates, running left to….
Key Statements
Key Statements
Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
(Please select one column response for each row)
Strongly agree
Slightly agree
Slightly disagree
Strongly disagree
55%
15%
François Fillon should drop out of the
presidential race following the
allegations around fake jobs scandal
My country would be in a worse
position if the UK did leave the EU
15%
If the UK is successful leaving the EU,
then I would want my country to do the
same
14%
EU negotiators should allow the UK to
restrict immigration and still remain in
the EU
I feel that politicians look after the best
interests of voters
METHODOLOGY: Online -
10%
7%
25%
13%
21%
16%
24%
18%
21%
27%
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
Don't know
9%
15%
37%
24%
32%
9%
13%
21%
17%
24%
18%
SUM
‘Agree’
70%
40%
27%
31%
23%
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 1’….
Support for the EU
(10% definitely not vote removed)
Q. If there was a referendum in France on EU membership tomorrow, how would you vote?
(Please select one response)
Leave the European Union
Remain a member of the European Union
29%
59%
71%
82%
92%
85%
71%
41%
29%
18%
8%
All Who Would Vote
En Marche (Emmanuel Front National (Marine
Macron)
Le Pen)
Les Républicains
(François Fillon)
15%
Parti Socialiste (Benoît Le Parti de Gauche
Hamon)
(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)
5
METHODOLOGY: Online -
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
Rating Issues in Country
- Sum: ‘Satisfied’
GEN1. How would you presently rate the following in your country? (Please select one column response for each row)
Employment
opportunities
90%
National pride
80%
Defence and
security
70%
65%
Your household
income
Fairness in society
64%
60%
International
influence
50%
64%
79%
Your happiness
40%
30%
Opportunities for
youth
65%
20%
Community spirit
10%
Healthcare
France
0%
63%
UK
63%
Law and order
Germany
USA
68%
69%
Value of your
currency
Education
73%
Freedom of the
media
65%
Civil liberties and
privacy
Economic prosperity
75%
Cost of living
Quality of life
Opportunities for
businesses
Base: Gen Pop: UK (n=1,059) , France (n=1,082), Germany (n=1,056) & USA (n=1,231)
Key Statements
- SUM ‘Agree’
Q. How strongly do you agree with the following statements?
(Please select one column response for each row)
78%
81%
83%
76%
68%
63%
63%
55%
48%
50%
Total
En Marche (Emmanuel Macron)
Front National (Marine Le Pen)
Les Républicains (François Fillon)
Parti Socialiste (Benoît Hamon)
Le Parti de Gauche (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)
I do not trust
candidates to
implement the
promises made
during the electoral
campaign
48%
9%
I trust in business Globalisation has had France's immigration The wave of populist
France would be
leaders more than a negative influence
model should be
and antibetter off leaving the
politicians to revive
based on the
on France
establishment
Eurozone and
the economy
assimilation of a movements does not
reinstating the
'unique' French
worry me
French Franc
culture rather than
integration of various
cultures
METHODOLOGY: Online -
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 1’….
Who would you vote for
(10% definitely not vote removed)
Q. Who do you intend to vote for in the 2017 Presidential Elections?
(Please select one response)
25%
19%
17%
15%
6%
En Marche (Emmanuel
Macron)
Front National (Marine Le
Pen)
METHODOLOGY: Online -
Les Républicains (François
Fillon)
Parti Socialiste (Benoît
Hamon)
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
Le Parti de Gauche (Jean-Luc
Mélenchon)
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 1’….
Likelihood to vote
(10% definitely not vote removed)
Q. How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the first round French Presidential election on 23rd April 2017?
(Please select one response)
I will definitely vote
9%
9%
7%
91%
91%
93%
En Marche (Emmanuel
Macron)
Front National (Marine Le
Pen)
Les Républicains (François
Fillon)
METHODOLOGY: Online -
11%
89%
Parti Socialiste (Benoît
Hamon)
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
19%
81%
Le Parti de Gauche (Jean-Luc
Mélenchon)
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 1’….
Likelihood to change support
(10% definitely not vote removed)
Q. Have you made your mind up which way you will vote for in the first round of the 2017 French Presidential election?
(Please select one response)
Yes - I will not change my decision
25%
Partly - but I could still be persuaded to change
22%
11%
12%
No - I have not decided who to vote for
17%
21%
29%
36%
32%
40%
45%
27%
69%
43%
Total
52%
43%
34%
En Marche (Emmanuel Front National (Marine
Macron)
Le Pen)
METHODOLOGY: Online -
Les Républicains
(François Fillon)
44%
Parti Socialiste (Benoît Le Parti de Gauche
Hamon)
(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 1’….
Generations of support
(10% definitely not vote removed)
Q. Which of the following age ranges do you fit into?
(Please select one response)
18 - 29 yrs
46%
35%
48%
48%
30 - 49 yrs
50+ yrs
40%
60%
34%
37%
35%
38%
36%
32%
19%
Total
15%
17%
En Marche (Emmanuel Front National (Marine
Macron)
Le Pen)
METHODOLOGY: Online -
26%
28%
9%
Les Républicains
(François Fillon)
Parti Socialiste (Benoît Le Parti de Gauche
Hamon)
(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 1’….
Support or Against Others
(10% definitely not vote removed)
Q. How would you balance between the following on how you intend to vote in the first round of the 2017 French Presidential election?
(Please allocate a sum of 100% between the following)
Support for a particular party or candidate to win
28%
72%
En Marche (Emmanuel
Macron)
22%
23%
25%
28%
78%
77%
75%
72%
Front National (Marine Le
Pen)
Les Républicains (François
Fillon)
Parti Socialiste (Benoît
Hamon)
Le Parti de Gauche (Jean-Luc
Mélenchon)
METHODOLOGY: Online -
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 1’….
Head or Emotions
(10% definitely not vote removed)
Q. How would you divide the reasons for your voting behaviour in the first round of the 2017 French Presidential election?
(Please allocate a sum of 100% amongst the following)
Economic Financial
10%
5%
7%
6%
Instinct
Anger
Distrust
9%
6%
6%
6%
12%
7%
9%
Other
14%
6%
8%
9%
14%
20%
Fear
11%
5%
9%
12%
26%
22%
24%
41%
39%
Parti Socialiste (Benoît
Hamon)
Le Parti de Gauche (Jean-Luc
Mélenchon)
17%
59%
52%
30%
En Marche (Emmanuel
Macron)
Front National (Marine Le
Pen)
METHODOLOGY: Online -
Les Républicains (François
Fillon)
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
Drivers of Vote
F25: What are the MAIN important reasons why you would vote for a particular candidate in the French Presidential Election?
(Please select all that apply)
Total
62%
En Marche (Emmanuel Macron)
Front National (Marine Le Pen)
53%
Les Républicains (François Fillon)
52%
Parti Socialiste (Benoît Hamon)
46%
40%
40%
35%
32%
33%
31%
32%
32%
29%
27%
30%
25%
22%
21%
18%
16%
12%
7%
4%
Frances
defence and
security
Healthcare
Quality of life Law and order
METHODOLOGY: Online -
Education
Cost of living
Your
household
income
Civil liberties Employment
and privacy opportunities
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
Fairness in
society
National pride
Frances
in France
international
influence
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
SUM ‘Trust’
Q. Which of the following do you trust?
(Please select one column response for each row)
83%
Financial and economic experts
58%
79%
77%
Head of Central / Reserve Bank in my country
45%
80%
69%
Business leaders in my country
55%
80%
75%
The media in my country
39%
En Marche (Emmanuel Macron)
Front National (Marine Le Pen)
Les Républicains (François Fillon)
43%
49%
Politicians in my country
27%
67%
METHODOLOGY: Online -
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 2’….
Fillon v Le Pen
Q. If there was a run-off between the following 2 political parties during the second round, who would you vote for?
(Please select one response)
Les Républicains François Fillon
Front National Marine Le Pen
I would not vote
3%
32%
35%
49%
25%
51%
9%
94%
96%
12%
20%
57%
43%
40%
29%
4%
All
En Marche (Emmanuel Front National (Marine
Macron)
Le Pen)
METHODOLOGY: Online -
Les Républicains
(François Fillon)
Parti Socialiste (Benoît Le Parti de Gauche
Hamon)
(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 2’….
Macron v Le Pen
Q. If there was a run-off between the following 2 political parties during the second round, who would you vote for?
(Please select one response)
En Marche Emmanuel Macron
Front National Marine Le Pen
I would not vote
4%
23%
22%
24%
8%
39%
21%
25%
95%
14%
93%
70%
55%
52%
47%
6%
All
En Marche (Emmanuel Front National (Marine
Macron)
Le Pen)
METHODOLOGY: Online -
Les Républicains
(François Fillon)
Parti Socialiste (Benoît Le Parti de Gauche
Hamon)
(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
‘Round 2’….
Macron v Fillon
Q. If there was a run-off between the following 2 political parties during the second round, who would you vote for?
(Please select one response)
En Marche Emmanuel Macron
Les Républicains François Fillon
5%
I would not vote
5%
27%
30%
43%
50%
8%
24%
93%
27%
90%
6%
65%
45%
44%
31%
5%
All
En Marche (Emmanuel Front National (Marine
Macron)
Le Pen)
METHODOLOGY: Online -
Les Républicains
(François Fillon)
Parti Socialiste (Benoît Le Parti de Gauche
Hamon)
(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
Who do you THINK will win?
Q. And who do you think WILL win the following?
(Please select one column response for each row)
1st Round
43%
2nd Round
42%
25%
15%
14%
9%
12%
8%
3%
Marine Le Pen
Emmanuel Macron
METHODOLOGY: Online -
François Fillon
Benoît Hamon
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
3%
JeanLuc Mélenchon
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
Distractions on the Day (Round 1)
- ‘Likely & Discouraging’
Q. How likely and discouraging would the following be on your likelihood to vote in the first round of the French Presidential election on 23rd of April’17?
(Please select one column response for each row)
Poor health / mobility issues
8%
3%
Busy day at work / home
4%
6%
Over-indulgence / hangover from the day before
Travelling / out of town
Sporting event watching / participating in
METHODOLOGY: Online -
7%
7%
3%
Forecast for an easy win by a candidate
Poor weather / rain
6%
4%
Difficulty getting to / distance to polling station
19%
7%
4%
Waiting time to vote
Social commitments
16%
10%
2%
1%
4%
7%
3%
4%
2%
2%
En Marche (Emmanuel Macron)
5%
4%
Les Républicains (François Fillon)
1%
6%
2%
2%
1%
Front National (Marine Le Pen)
5%
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)
Distractions on the Day (Round 1)
- ‘Likely & Discouraging’
Q. How likely and discouraging would the following be on your likelihood to vote in the first round of the French Presidential election on 23rd of April’17?
(Please select one column response for each row)
Poor health / mobility issues
16%
Busy day at work / home
Waiting time to vote
Social commitments
Poor weather / rain
Over-indulgence / hangover from the day before
Travelling / out of town
Sporting event watching / participating in
METHODOLOGY: Online -
8%
8%
3%
Forecast for an easy win by a candidate
3%
2%
2%
2%
10%
5%
12%
7%
2%
2%
11%
7%
4%
Difficulty getting to / distance to polling station
14%
7%
3%
18%
17%
6%
6%
5%
11%
10%
10%
18 - 30 yrs
31 - 50 yrs
51+ yrs
5%
5%
DATE OF RESEARCH: 3rd to 6th March 2017 -
BASE: General Population in France (n=1,072)