GLOBAL MANUFACTURING AFTER THE
GREAT DEPRESSION – A NEW
GEOGRAPHY?
The global picture
Manufacturing – a declining share of global GDP …
18%
17%
17%
16%
16%
17%
16%
140
16%
16%
130
14%
12%
120
10%
110
8%
6%
100
4%
90
2%
0%
80
2007
2008
2009
MANUFACTURING/GDP
2010
2011
GDP
2012
2013
MANUFACTURING
Nomisma elaboration on World Bank data
… and in most G20 economies
G20
The global picture
20%
16%
16%
2007
2008
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
14%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
10%
35
30
5%
0%
25
20
15
10
2014
2007
5
0
Nomisma elaboration on World Bank data
Industrialization in G20 – the peak was reached
long ago
70
The global picture
NDL
60
50
GBR
ARG
40
CHN
HKG,
ESP
SWE
30
USA
DNK
FRA
MEX
BRA
20
KOR
IDN
ITA
IND
10
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Nomisma elaboration on GGDC data
The global picture
Distribution of global manufacturing – Asia is forging
ahead …
100%
80%
5%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
5%
24%
22%
22%
22%
19%
20%
19%
28%
26%
34%
34%
27%
27%
30%
42%
44%
47%
34%
40%
46%
36%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
60%
40%
20%
0%
ASIA
EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA
SOUTH AMERICA
AFRICA
OCEANIA
Nomisma elaboration on World Bank data
… and Africa is the (small) new frontier
The global picture
195
175
155
135
125
115
95
75
2007
AFRICA
2008
NORTH AMERICA
2009
2010
SOUTH AMERICA
2011
ASIA
EUROPE
2012
2013
OCEANIA
WORLD
Nomisma elaboration on World Bank data
By region – a tale of contrasts
ASIA
The global picture
25%
22%
22%
22%
22%
EUROPE
22%
22%
22%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
17%
16%
2007
2008
15%
16%
15%
15%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
SOUTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
25%
20%
15%
25%
17%
17%
16%
16%
20%
15%
15%
14%
13%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
13%
13%
12%
13%
12%
12%
11%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Nomisma elaboration on World Bank data
The world’s 1000 largest manufacturing firms – more
than half come from three countries
The global picture
350
300
250
200
150
2014
2007
100
50
0
Nomisma elaboration on Industry Week data
ITALY - TOP 1000
Outside the top 1000 in 2015
New entries since 2015
1200
The global picture
Fiat moved to UK in 2014
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2015
2007
Nomisma elaboration on Industry Week data
WORLD
2.000
1.670
Thousand metric tons
The global picture – industry stories
Steel
1.500
1.000
500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
100%
Oceania
Africa
Middle East
80%
60%
11%
11%
10%
12%
12%
11%
9%
11%
17%
17%
16%
15%
52%
54%
56%
58%
2005
2006
2007
2008
12%
8%
10%
11%
7%
9%
10%
7%
9%
10%
64%
65%
66%
68%
68%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
7%
10%
8%
10%
8%
10%
11%
12%
66%
2009
South America
North America
Other Europe (CIS)
European Union (28)
Asia
40%
20%
0%
Nomisma elaboration on World steel data
The global picture – industry stories
Steel
(2005=100)
210
190
190,2
170
Asia
European Union (28)
150
Other Europe (CIS)
North America
130
South America
110
Middle East
Africa
90
86,5
Oceania
70
50
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nomisma elaboration on World steel data
Millions
The global picture – industry stories
Autovehicles
25
Production by country
20
15
2015
10
2007
5
-
Nomisma elaboration on OICA data
The global picture – industry stories
Autovehicles
Production by country
200%
176%
167%
150%
100%
83%
75%
70%
49%
50%
39%
24%
12%
11%
0%
-3%
-20%
-50%
-5%
-18%
-1%
-4%
-11%
-17%
-21%
-35%
Nomisma elaboration on OICA data
2007 vs 2015
Nomisma elaboration on OICA data
Contribution to the increase in global production since 2009
Nomisma elaboration on OICA data
Thousand of tonnage
The global picture – industry stories
Ships
180
160
140
120
Europe tot
100
Others
Japan
80
S. Korea
China
60
40
20
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Nomisma elaboration on Shipbuilders
Association of Japan data
The global picture – industry stories
Cruise Ships
18
16
Chantiers de l'Atlantique
acquired by STX (Korea)
14
STX (Finland) acquired
by Fincantieri (Italy)
12
10
2
2
8
6
1
2
2
1
3
2
0
2
1
2
3
4
2
5
4
5
6
2
2
5
3
0
2
2
2
2013
2014
1
1
2
2
5
5
5
2016
2017
2018
3
0
2
3
0
2007
2008
ITALY
2009
GERMANY
2010
FRANCE
2011
2012
FINLAND
CANADA
JAPAN
2015
CROATIA
USA
NORWAY
Nomisma elaboration on AMEM and Fincantieri data
The global picture – industry stories
Aircraft
1800
1600
1400
1200
SUKHOI
1000
BOMBARDIER
EMBRAER
800
AIRBUS
600
BOEING
400
200
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Nomisma elaboration on corporate data
Diverging dynamics …
The European picture
(value of production, 2008=100)
115
110
110
105
106
100
99
99
95
94
92
90
Germany
Spain
France
Italy
Uk
86
85
Poland
EUROPA
80
75
70
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nomisma elaboration on Eurostat data
1.200
1.000
800
600
Billions of Euros
The European picture
… although Germany and Italy remain the
manufacturing powerhouses
400
2014
2008
200
0
Nomisma elaboration on Eurostat data
Food remains the largest sector …
The European picture
(2008 = 100)
115
Food products
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
105
Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
95
Fabricated metal products, except
machinery and equipment
Chemicals and chemical products
85
Rubber and plastic products
75
Basic metals
Electrical equipment
65
TOT MANUFACTURING
55
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nomisma elaboration on Eurostat data
Billion of Euros
The European picture
… and few other sectors are growing
800
700
600
500
400
300
2014
2008
200
100
-
Nomisma elaboration on Eurostat data
Billion Euros
The European picture
Top 20 sunrise sectors
30
26
25
25
20
20
15
18
14
11
10
11
11
11
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
5
0
Nomisma elaboration on Eurostat data
Billion Euros
The European picture
Top 20 sunset sectors
-5
-6
-10
-10
-9
-9
-8
-6
-6
-5
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-8
-12
-15
-14
-20
-20
-13
-19
-25
Nomisma elaboration on Eurostat data
250
GERMANY - machinery and
equipment n.e.c.
200
150
2008
100
2014
Billion Euros
The European picture
Largest sector by country – little change
50
0
GERMANY - Motor
vehicles, trailers
and semi-trailers
FRANCE - Food
products
ITALY - Food
products
UK - Food products
SPAIN - Food
products
POLAND - Food
products
Nomisma elaboration on Eurostat data
The European picture
Little change in specialization (especially in Italy)
SPECIALIST SUPPLIERS
GERMANY
FRANCE
SUPPLIERS DOMINATED
SUPPLIERS DOMINATED
40%
40%
20%
20%
SCALE AND
INFORMATION
INTENSIVE
0%
SPECIALIST SUPPLIERS
SCALE AND
INFORMATION
INTENSIVE
0%
2014
2008
SCIENCE BASED
SCIENCE BASED
ITALY
SUPPLIERS DOMINATED
40%
20%
SPECIALIST SUPPLIERS
0%
SCALE AND
INFORMATION
INTENSIVE
SCIENCE BASED
Nomisma elaboration on Eurostat data
Italy is deindustrializing …
The Italian picture
20
120
18
100
16
14
80
12
10
60
8
40
6
4
20
2
-
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Manufacturing value added/GDP
2011
GDP
2012
2013
2014
Manufacturing Value added
Nomisma elaboration on ISTAT data
Billion Euros
The Italian picture
… and manufacturing is a Northern story
70
60
50
40
30
20
2013
2008
10
0
Nomisma elaboration on ISTAT data
Billion Euros
The Italian picture
Manufacturing Italy – A Northern story
-1,6%
250
200
+0,1%
150
100
+1,8%
50
0
2008
2009
Northwest
2010
Nordeast
2011
Centre
2012
South
2013
-0,3%
Nomisma elaboration on ISTAT data
The Italian picture
Fast deindustrialization in Southern Italy …
105
100
99,1
95
93,9
93,5
92,8
Northwest
Nordeast
Centre
South
90
ITALY
85
81,3
80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Nomisma elaboration on ISTAT data
Thousand
The Italian picture
… despite the FCA production boom
1000
750
500
250
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
North
Centre
2012
2013
2014
2015
South
Nomisma elaboration on IHS Automotive data
Billion of Euros
The Italian picture
In value added, machinery and equipment is #1
35
30
25
20
2013
2008
15
10
5
-
Nomisma elaboration on ISTAT data
Manufacturing distribution in 2013
The Italian picture
NORTHWEST
NORTHEAST
Suppliers Dominated
31%
41%
Scale and information
Intensive
Suppliers Dominated
28%
Scale and information
Intensive
36%
Science Based
Science Based
15%
7%
Specialised Suppliers
21%
Specialised Suppliers
22%
CENTRE
SOUTH
Suppliers Dominated
Suppliers Dominated
19%
21%
45%
Scale and information
Intensive
44%
8%
Science Based
17%
17%
Specialised Suppliers
Scale and information
Intensive
Science Based
28%
Specialised Suppliers
Nomisma elaboration on ISTAT data