Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105 – 122 www.elsevier.com/locate/jmarsys Incorporating turbulence into a plankton foodweb model Aisling M. Metcalfe a,*, T.J. Pedley a, T.F. Thingstad b a Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 0WA, UK b University of Bergen, Department of Microbiology, Jahnebakken 5, N-5020 Bergen, Norway Received 15 October 2002; accepted 9 July 2003 Available online 19 March 2004 Abstract Small-scale fluid motions in the ocean affect the rate of nutrient uptake by bacteria and phytoplankton and the predation rates of zooplankton. The magnitude of the effect depends on the size and swimming speed of the organisms. Theory predicts that nutrient uptake will be increased by turbulence and that zooplankton – phytoplankton encounter and capture rates will be increased at low turbulent intensity but the capture rate will be decreased at high turbulent intensity. We present a mathematical model of an enclosure experiment carried out in Norway in July 2001. In the experiment the enclosed plankton communities were subjected to various levels of turbulence, generated using oscillating grids, and to different initial nutrient conditions. We predict that, for the experimental conditions, the rate of nutrient uptake by diatoms and grazing by copepods will increase with turbulence but other parameters will be unaffected. We present results of simulations in which these parameters are increased separately and together. Comparison of computational and experimental results suggests that the dominant effect of turbulence is the increase in nutrient uptake by diatoms. D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Nutrient uptake; Turbulence; Zooplankton – phytoplankton encounter 1. Introduction The oceans are continually disturbed by wind and waves, generating small-scale fluid motion or turbulence, which has been shown both experimentally and theoretically to affect nutrient uptake by phytoplankton and predation by zooplankton (see for example the review by Peters and Marrasé, 2000). The large eddies generated by wind and wave motion in the ocean are * Corresponding author. Tel.: +44-1223-765-000; fax: +441223-765-900. E-mail address: [email protected] (A.M. Metcalfe). 0924-7963/$ - see front matter D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2003.07.003 unstable and break down to form smaller eddies. On long length scales the effect of viscosity is unimportant and no kinetic energy is lost between the larger and smaller length scales but at sufficiently small length scales, given by the Kolmogorov microscale g ¼ ðm3 =eÞ1=4 , viscosity becomes important and the kinetic energy in the eddies is dissipated to heat (Batchelor, 1953). Here e is the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate and m = 10 6 m2 s 1 is the kinematic viscosity of water (Batchelor, 1967). At length scales smaller than g rapid fluctuations in fluid velocity are dissipated by viscosity and the fluid flow can be regarded as laminar, though still random. For many realistic values of e the Kolmogorov microscale lies in the middle of the plankton size spectrum (see 106 A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 Table 1 Parameter definitions and values Parameter Unit Definition Value e m 1 3 4 g ¼ me YH m2 s 3 m2 s 1 m dimensionless 0 – 10 4 10 6 1.78 10 3 – 3.16 10 4 0.3 YC YZ aBN aAN aDN aHB aCH aCA aZC aZD kB kA kD kH kC kZ lB ¼ kB =aBN lA ¼ kA =aAN lD ¼ kD =aDN lH ¼ kH =2aHB lC ¼ kC =2aC lZ ¼ kZ =2aZ dZ Pe U R D0 Ucrit Peturb Sh qH Rc cP vH, vP wT tR 1 sK = me 2 dimensionless dimensionless l nmol P 1 h 1 l nmol P 1 h 1 l nmol P 1 h 1 l nmol P 1 h 1 l nmol P 1 h 1 l nmol P 1 h 1 l nmol P 1 h 1 l nmol P 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 h 1 nmol P l 1 nmol P l 1 nmol P l 1 nmol P l 1 nmol P l 1 nmol P l 1 h 1 dimensionless m s 1 m cm2 s 1 m s 1 dimensionless dimensionless cells m 3 Am nmol P cell 1 Am s 1 Am s 1 s s dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy kinematic viscosity of water Kolmogorov lengthscale fraction of nutrient in prey incorporated into heterotrophic flagellates fraction of nutrient in prey incorporated into ciliates fraction of nutrient in prey incorporated into copepods affinity of bacteria for nutrient affinity of autotrophic flagellates for nutrient affinity of diatoms for nutrient clearance rate of heterotrophic flagellates on bacteria clearance rate of ciliates on heterotrophic flagellates clearance rate of ciliates on autotrophic flagellates clearance rate of copepods on ciliates clearance rate of copepods on diatoms maximum nutrient uptake rate for bacteria maximum nutrient uptake rate for autotrophic flagellates maximum nutrient uptake rate for diatoms maximum ingestion rate for heterotrophic flagellates maximum ingestion rate for ciliates maximum ingestion rate for copepods half-saturation coefficient for bacteria half-saturation coefficient for autotrophic flagellates half-saturation coefficient for diatoms half-saturation coefficient for heterotrophic flagellates half-saturation coefficient for ciliates half-saturation coefficient for copepods intrinsic death rate of copepods Péclet number characteristic fluid velocity characteristic lengthscale molecular diffusivity of phosphate critical swimming velocity turbulent Péclet number Sherwood number prey density contact radius phosphorus content of predator P swimming speed of prey H, predator P turbulent velocity scale handling time Kolmogorov timescale 0.3 0.2 0.20 0.0048 7.2 10 4 – 9.8 10 4 0.026 0.0039 0.0039 4.5 10 4 – 9.1 10 4 4.5 10 4 – 9.1 10 4 0.40 0.091 0.043 1.6 0.39 0.063 2.0 20 60 – 44 31 50 71 – 35 0.002 6 10 6 The allometric (still water) values of lD and lZ are the largest values of the range shown, i.e., lD = 60, lZ = 71 nmol P l 1. The allometric (still water) values of aDN, aZD and aZC are the smallest of the range shown, i.e., aDN = 7.2 10 4, aZD = aZC = 4.5 10 4 l nmol P 1 h 1. Note that ciliates and diatoms have different carbon contents so the half-saturation value for copepods preying on ciliates will be slightly larger than that for copepods preying on diatoms. The value given here is the average of the two. Table 1) and we expect that turbulence will have a different effect on species of different sizes. In this paper we incorporate previous work on the effect of turbulence on plankton into a model of a plankton foodweb, which we compare with the results of a mesocosm experiment. We begin by describing the experiment and the equations used to model it, presenting several different choices for the functional forms in the equations. We then summarise the theoretical predictions of the effect of turbulence on A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 the different plankton groups and the effect of turbulence on our model parameters. Finally we present the results of the model and compare them to the experimental results. 2. Materials and methods The mesocosm experiment aimed to explore the effect of turbulent fluid motions on plankton and nutrient dynamics. It was carried out from July 11– 25, 2001 at the Marine Biological Station in Espegrend, Norway. Twelve 2400-l mesocosms were filled with seawater, collected offshore, which had been filtered through a 250-Am mesh to remove larger organisms. At the start of the experiment six of the mesocosms were perturbed by the addition of nutrients (1 AM P, 16 AM N, 32 AM Si); the remaining six had no nutrient addition. Out of each series of six mesocosms two contained still water and the remaining four were subjected to four different levels of gridgenerated turbulence. The still mesocosms are referred to as T0, the turbulent mesocosms as T1 – T4 and the nutrient-enriched mesocosms are NT0 – NT4. Turbulence level T1 has a turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate of e = 10 7 m2 s 3, T2 has e = 5 10 6 m2 s 3 , T3 has e = 5 10 5 m 2 s 3 , and T4 has e = 10 4 m2 s 3. Turbulence was generated using a pair of vertically oscillating grids 89 cm apart. The level of turbulence in the tanks was measured with an acoustic doppler current meter (an NDP from Nortek) and the stroke length and frequency required for the different levels of turbulence were calculated according to the method detailed in Stiansen and Sundby (2001). An integrated sample was taken every day using three plastic cylinders 5 cm in diameter. Sample volume varied according to the day (some parameters were only measured every 2 days) and the total volume taken from each mesocosm over the course of the experiment was less than 170 l. We present here the results for diatom and copepod concentration. Enumeration and identification of diatoms were carried out on samples (100 ml) preserved by formaldehyde (0.4% final concentration) using the method of Utermöhl (1931). A minimum of 400 cells were counted using a Zeiss axiovert 100 inverted microscope. Estimates of diatom carbon biomass were 107 made by converting microscopic size measurements to cell volumes, which were converted to carbon biomass (Menden-Deuer and Lessard, 2000). A molar C/P ratio of 106:1 was used to convert from the carbon units. The copepod volume was calculated as detailed in Alcaraz et al. (in press) and converted to phosphate using an average C/P conversion factor (HärdstedtRoméo, 1982; Le Borgne, 1975). 3. Model equations The major groups of organisms present in the mesocosms were bacteria, autotrophic flagellates, diatoms, heterotrophic flagellates, ciliates and meso-zooplankton (copepods). The growth of bacteria, autotrophic flagellates and diatoms is limited by the availability of inorganic nutrient (phosphate), as shown in previous experiments in the same region (Thingstad et al., 1999a) and the trophic interactions are shown in Fig. 1. The properties of the various species will be important in determining the parameters and for convenience we summarise them in Table 2. The development of the various populations is represented by differential equations in the concentrations of bacteria (B), autotrophic flagellates (A), diatoms (D), heterotrophic flagellates (H), ciliates (C), copepods (Z) and free nutrient (N), measured in nmol P l 1. We assume that no nutrient is lost from the system and that all nutrient released by a Fig. 1. The model foodweb. 108 A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 Table 2 Properties of the different plankton groupings Length (Am) Bacterium Autotrophic Flagellate Diatom Heterotrophic Flagellate Ciliate Copepod Swimming speed (Am s 1) Carbon content (pg C cell 1) Phosphorus content (nmol P cell 1) 30 200 0.02 7.4 3.3 10 8 5.8 10 6 – – 40 4 10 200 150 7.4 1.2 10 4 5.8 10 6 – 50 1000 1000 4000 2000 3 106 1.6 10 3 2.4 50 1000 0.5 4 Contact radius (Am) Handling time (s) – – – 15 5 10 0.1 The lengths and swimming speeds of bacteria, ciliates and copepods and the swimming speed of flagellates are taken from Peters and Marrasé (2000). The size and carbon content of a flagellate were provided by F. Peters (personal communication) and the length and carbon content of a typical diatom were taken from data provided by A. Jacobsen. The swimming speed given for diatoms is actually a sinking speed, taken from the experiments of Bienfang (1980), and agrees with the theoretically calculated sinking speed (Karp-Boss et al., 1996). The phosphorus content of bacteria and ciliates is taken from Thingstad et al. (1999b) and that of copepods from Kiørboe et al. (1985). The carbon and phosphorus contents are related using a molar C/P ratio of 50 for bacteria and 106 for protists (Thingstad et al., 1999b). The contact radius of a predator is the distance over which it can perceive its prey and the handling time is the time required for it to locate and capture prey. The contact radius and handling time for copepods are taken from Jonsson and Tiselius (1990) and Kiørboe and Saiz (1995). The contact radii of ciliates and heterotrophic flagellates are estimates based on their sizes. The handling time of heterotrophic flagellates is taken from Boenigk and Arndt (2000), who found times of 2 – 14 s from first contact of a bacterium with the flagellate to the bacterium being completely enclosed in a vacuole, so the value in Table 2 is an overestimate. The handling time for ciliates is an estimate, which we expect to be an overestimate, but in Section 5 we will see that accurate handling time and contact radius are only necessary for copepods. process (e.g. the death of copepods) is immediately remineralised to inorganic forms. The equations are: dB ¼ uBN B gHB H dt ð3:1aÞ dA ¼ uAN A gCA C dt ð3:1bÞ dD ¼ uDN D gZD Z dt ð3:1cÞ dH ¼ YH gHB H gCH C dt ð3:1dÞ dC ¼ YC ðgCA þ gCH ÞC gZC Z dt ð3:1eÞ dZ ¼ YZ ðgZD þ gZC ÞZ dZ Z dt ð3:1f Þ 3.1. Linear model The simplest model is to assume that the nutrient uptake and grazing rates are linear, i.e. uBN ¼ aBN N ; dN ¼ dZ Z þ ð1 YH ÞgHB H þ ð1 YC ÞðgCA þ gCH ÞC dt þ ð1 YZ ÞðgZD þ gZC ÞZ uBN B uAN A uDN D: Here uBN, uAN and uDN are nutrient uptake rates, measured in units of h 1, for bacteria, autotrophic flagellates and diatoms and gIJ is the grazing rate of species I feeding on species J. dZ is the copepod death rate. The uptake and grazing rates and copepod death rate are measured in h. YH, YC and YZ are dimensionless yields which represent the inefficiency of predator feeding. Copepod mortality is sometimes represented by a quadratic closure term dZZ2 (Edwards and Brindley, 1999).This is intended to model predation by higher predators, whose population is assumed to be proportional to Z, so for the mesocosm experiment (where there is no higher predator) we choose a linear death function. ð3:1gÞ uAN ¼ aAN N ; uDN ¼ aDN N ; ð3:2aÞ gHB ¼ aHB B; gCA ¼ aCA A; gZC ¼ aZC C; gZD ¼ aZD D; gCH ¼ aCH H; ð3:2bÞ A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 where the parameters a are affinity constants, with units of 1 nmol P 1 h 1 (see Table 1). Models of this type have been used in modelling previous mesocosm experiments (Thingstad et al., 1999a,b) and it is easy to incorporate a description of the effect of turbulence on nutrient uptake and predation into such models. However, we find that there is only a narrow range of parameters in which the three phytoplankton species can coexist. A slight variation in the parameters, for example to model the effect of turbulence, may cause some or more of the species to become extinct, an effect which is not seen in the experiments. This instability makes the model a very poor tool for prediction. 3.2. Linear saturation model The simplest improvement to the linear model of Section 3.1 is to include the maximum rate at which phytoplankton can take up nutrient and the maximum rate at which predators can ingest prey. We replace the uptake and grazing rates given in Eq. (3.2a,b) by uBN ¼ minðaBN N ; kB Þ; uDN uAN ¼ minðaAN N ; kA Þ; ð3:3aÞ ¼ minðaDN N ; kD Þ; gHB ¼ minðaHB B; kH Þ; ð3:3bÞ aCA AkC gCA ¼ min aCA A; ; aCA A þ aCH H aCH HkC ; gCH ¼ min aCH H; aCA A þ aCH H ð3:3cÞ gZC gZD aZC CkZ ¼ min aZC C; ; aZC C þ aZD D aZD DkZ ¼ min aZD D; ; aZC C þ aZD D ð3:3dÞ where kB, kA and kD are the maximum nutrient uptake rates for bacteria, autotrophic flagellates and diatoms and kH , kC and kZ are the maximum ingestion rates for heterotrophic flagellates, ciliates and copepods. The affinity constants, a, are the same as those used in the linear model. In this formulation the ciliates and copepods do not favour one type of prey over the other and consume prey in proportion 109 to the relative prey concentration when there is an excess of prey. 3.3. Holling type III grazing functions An alternative to the linear model of Section 3.2 is to use nonlinear uptake and grazing functions, an approach which has been widely used. Nutrient uptake is represented by Michaelis– Menten functions uBN ¼ kB N ; lB þ N uAN ¼ kA N ; lA þ N uDN ¼ kD N ; lD þ N ð3:4Þ where kB, kA and kD are the maximum nutrient uptake rates as in Section 3.2 and lB, lA and lD are the halfsaturation coefficients for nutrient uptake by bacteria, autotrophic flagellates and diatoms. The grazing terms are modeled using a sigmoidal function, often referred to as a Holling type III function (Steele and Henderson, 1981; Edwards and Brindley, 1999; Palmer and Totterdell, 2001). The important difference between this model and that of Section 3.2 is that the grazing rate function has zero gradient when the prey concentration is zero. There is experimental evidence to suggest that copepods cease feeding at low food concentrations (Frost, 1975; Mullin et al., 1975; Price and Pafenhofer, 1986), which is theoretically appealing as we would expect predation to cease if prey are so sparse that the energetic cost of finding and capturing prey outweighs the benefit, but there is little evidence that protozoa exhibit such feeding thresholds. The main benefit of using a sigmoidal function is that the zero gradient at zero prey concentration stabilizes the model by providing a refuge for rare phytoplankton and allowing coexistence of phytoplankton species (see Strom et al., 2000, for a fuller discussion). For the grazing of heterotrophic flagellates on bacteria, we use a standard Holling type III function gHB ¼ kH B2 ; l2H þ B2 ð3:5aÞ where kH is the maximum ingestion rate as in Section 3.2 and lH is the half-saturation coefficient for heterotrophic flagellates. 110 A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 In the model of Fig. 1 ciliates and copepods each prey on two different species and this requires a modification to the function given in Eq. (3.5a), which we model in the same way as previous authors (Palmer and Totterdell, 2001; Pitchford and Brindley, 1999; Fasham et al., 1990), assuming that a predator with a choice of prey will preferentially feed on the more plentiful prey species. We use gCA ¼ C on A and H as an example. If we assume that aCA = aCH = aC the total grazing by C has half its maximum value, k2C , when the total food available, kC A + H, is 2a . Using the Holling type III functions of C Eqs. (3.5b,c), total grazing by C is 2 A þ H2 kC AþH 2 ; A þ H2 lC þ AþH gCH which has half its maximum value, 2 þH 2 food available, AAþH , is lC. Hence kC A2 ; lC ðA þ HÞ þ A2 þ H 2 kC H 2 ¼ ; lC ðA þ HÞ þ A2 þ H 2 ð3:5bÞ kC ¼ lC ; 2aC 2 kZ C ; lZ ðD þ CÞ þ D2 þ C 2 kZ D2 ¼ ; lZ ðD þ CÞ þ D2 þ C 2 gZC ¼ gZD ð3:5cÞ 3.4. Relating the parameter values In order to compare the results of the different models we need a consistent way of relating the different parameters. If we assume that the initial slope of the Michaelis – Menten uptake rates Eq. (3.4) is the same as the linear uptake rates Eq. (3.2a) we have kA ¼ aAN lA kD ¼ aDN : lD ð3:6Þ We will also assume that the half-saturation values of the Holling type III functions Eqs. (3.5a) – (3.5c) are the same as the half-saturation values of the corresponding linear saturation functions Eqs. (3.3b) – (3.3d). For the predation of H on B this gives kH ¼ aHB : 2lH when the total ð3:8Þ The forms of the functions can be seen in Fig. 2. where kC and kZ are the maximum ingestion rates for ciliates and copepods as in Section 3.2 and lC and lZ are the half-saturation coefficients for ciliates and copepods. kB ¼ aBN lB kZ ¼ lZ : 2aZ kC 2, ð3:7Þ The cases of C and Z, which prey on two species, require more thought and we consider the predation of 3.5. Parameter values We calculate the parameter values using the empirical, allometric formulae of Moloney and Field (1989, 1991), using a molar C/N/P ratio of 106:16:1 to convert to our units where necessary. The maximal nutrient uptake rates for phytoplankton and bacteria are given by k = 0.15 M 1/4 and the maximal ingestion rates for particle feeding heterotrophs are given by k = 2.625 M 1/4 where M is the mass of one organism in pgC and k is in h 1. Half-saturation values for nutrient uptake are given in nmolP l 1 by l = 8.93 M 0.38. For ingestion the half-saturation value depends on prey size: l = 42.45 Mp0.08, where Mp is the mass of a prey organism in pgC. Table 1 gives the values of k, l and a (calculated from Eqs. (3.6), (3.7), and (3.8)) for the species in our model, using the masses given in Table 2. Similar values for maximum uptake and ingestion rates and half-saturation values have been used by previous authors (Palmer and Totterdell, 2001) or found experimentally (Saiz and Kiørboe, 1995). The yields are dimensionless ratios, which should be positive and less than 1. The values we use are given in Table 1 and agree with experimental and theoretical estimates (Thingstad et al., 1999a,b; Jackson, 1980; Nagata, 1988). We take a copepod death rate, dZ, of 5% per day, or 0.002 h 1 (Palmer and Totterdell, 2001; Baretta-Bekker et al., 1998). A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 4. The effect of turbulence on nutrient uptake A microorganism absorbs nutrient from the surrounding fluid and transports it across its cell membrane. A nutrient-depleted boundary layer therefore develops around the microorganism and in the absence of fluid motion nutrient in this depleted layer is replenished only by diffusion. However, in most cases the fluid around a microorganism is moving, either because of turbulence, or because the microorganism is sinking or actively swimming, or a combination of these. This fluid motion may increase the flow of fresh, nutrient-rich fluid towards the cell, thus reducing the thickness of the nutrientdepleted layer around the cell and increasing the nutrient uptake rate (although if there is rotation there may be regions of recirculating fluid close to the cell so that the fluid in the boundary layer is not replenished as frequently and the uptake rate is reduced). Most of the nutrient transfer to the cell will take the path of least resistance so a process which causes thinning of some part of the boundary layer will generally increase the nutrient uptake rate even if it increases the boundary layer thickness elsewhere. A review of the different effects of fluid motion can be found in Karp and Boss et al. (1996) and we summarize the relevant results here and apply them to our model phytoplankton. The relative importance of advection and diffusion is given by the Péclet number Pe = UR/D0, where U is the characteristic fluid velocity, R is a characteristic length scale (here taken to be the cell radius) and D0 is the molecular diffusivity. Diffusion dominates if Pe < 1 and advective effects dominate if Pe>1. Using a molecular diffusivity D0 = 6 10 6 cm2 s 1 for phosphate in water and the lengths and swimming speeds from Table 2, we find that the Péclet number for bacteria PeB = 0.0125. This indicates that bacteria are so small that the nutrient transport around them is dominated by diffusion, advection is unimportant and their nutrient uptake rate will not be affected by increased turbulence. Various experiments have confirmed that the nutrient uptake rate of isolated bacteria is unaffected by fluid motion, although bacteria which aggregate may have an effective size large enough that they can benefit from fluid motion (Logan and Dettmer, 1990; Peters et al., 1998). Autotrophic flagellates have PeA = 0.67 111 and diatoms have PeD = 0.33 so advective effects will be moderately important for these species and we need to consider them further. The flow round a microorganism swimming in turbulent fluid is the superposition of its translational and stirring motion and the varying shear due to turbulence. Whether the effect of swimming or of turbulence dominates depends on the size and swimming speed of the microorganism and on the turbulent intensity. For a fast swimmer the flow due to swimming will dominate. Batchelor (1980) defined a critical velocity Ucrit ¼ R2 34 pffiffiffiffi : m D0 If the swimming or sinking velocity of a microorganism is less than Ucrit the effect of turbulence dominates whereas if the velocity is greater than Ucrit the effect of swimming or sinking dominates. For an autotrophic flagellate in the highest experimental turbulence level T4, Ucrit = 5.2 Am s 1, which is much less than the average swimming speed of a flagellate (200 Am s 1) indicating that the effect of turbulence is negligible for them. For a diatom in T1, Ucrit = 2.9 Am s 1, less than the average diatom sinking speed. However, for T2, T3 andT4 Ucrit = 55, 310 and 520 Am s 1, much greater than the average diatom sinking speed. Therefore for T1 the effect of sinking dominates the effect of turbulence, but for T2 – T4 the effect of turbulence dominates. Experiments have confirmed that the nutrient uptake rate of a diatom is increased by fluid motion (Pasciak and Gavis, 1975). The Sherwood number is defined for a particular organism and fluid regime as Sh ¼ total flux in presence of fluid motion : diffusional flux in absence of fluid motion Karp-Boss et al. (1996) present a graph (their Fig. 2) of Sherwood number against Péclet number for a microorganism swimming or sinking in still water. From this, the Sherwood number for diatoms is ShD = 1.1. 112 A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 Fig. 2. Rate of nutrient uptake rate by bacteria, uBN, and of grazing by heterotrophic flagellates on bacteria, gHB, showing the different functional forms investigated. For uBN, kB = 0.40, lB = 2.0, aBN = 0.20. For gHB, kH = 1.6, lH = 31, aHB = 0.026. (See text and Table 1 for definitions of these quantities.). Dotted line, linear model; solid line, saturation model; dashed line, nonlinear model. For turbulent flow the Péclet number is defined as Peturb ¼ R2 e 12 ; D0 m the value of Peturb for diatoms for T2 –T4 is given in Table 3. Karp-Boss et al. (1996) also give a graph of Sh against Peturb (their Fig. 6) for non-motile cells in turbulent flow and Table 3 gives the values of Sh that correspond to Peturb for T2 –T4. For the range of Peturb which we are considering, Karp-Boss et al. (1996) actually give a narrow range of values for Sh; Table 3 contains the mean of their upper and lower bounds for Sh. We can then calculate the increase in aDN due to turbulence as aDNturb ¼ ShShturb aDN , where D ShD = 1.1 is the Sherwood number due only to sinking by diatoms. The values of aDN and the corresponding values of lD are given in Table 3; the values for T0 and T1 are the allometric values and are included here for completeness. Table 3 Values of turbulent Péclet and Sherwood number for the T2 – T4 turbulence levels and the values of aDN and lD for all turbulence levels Peturb Shturb aDN ( 10 4) lD T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 – – 7.2 60 – – 7.2 60 1.5 1.3 8.3 52 4.7 1.4 9.4 46 6.7 1.5 9.8 44 aDN is given in l nmol P 1 h 1 and lD in nmol P l 1. 5. The effect of turbulence on predator/prey capture rates The rate at which a predator captures prey depends on the rate at which it encounters prey and on the probability of it catching the prey once encountered. We expect that both the encounter rate and the capture probability will be affected by fluid motion; the encounter rate will increase as turbulence increases because increased fluid motion brings more prey to the predator, but the capture probability will decrease with increased turbulence as prey spend less time in close proximity to the predator. The theoretical encounter-rate problem for swimming organisms was considered by Lewis and Pedley (2000) following the work of Rothschild and Osborn (1988). They calculated the contact rate when the swimming velocity distributions of a predator P and a prey H are independent, three-dimensional, isotropic Gaussian distributions with zero mean and the organisms swim linearly with no changes of direction. They used a swept volume approach and calculated the contact rate, CPH, (the number of prey encountered by a single predator in unit time) in turbulent fluid in terms of prey density qH (cells per unit volume),contact radius Rc (the distance over which a predator can perceive its prey), the expected values of the swimming speeds of prey and predator, vH and vP, and the turbulent velocity scale, wT. The turbulent velocity, wT, depends on Rc and Lewis and Pedley (2000) clarified a point about which there had been some debate, that the appropriate length scale to use in wT is the contact radius rather than the length scale of the A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 predator or the mean distance between prey as had been suggested by some previous authors (see Visser and McKenzie, 1998, for a further discussion). The affinity constant of predator P for prey H, aPH, is related to the contact rate CPH by aPH ¼ 12 CPH pR2 8 2 wT þ v2H þ v2P ; ¼ c q H cP cP p ð5:1Þ where cP is the phosphorus content of one predator. Using Eq. (5.1) and the swimming speeds and contact radii of Table 2 we can calculate the affinity constants for the predators in our model under still and turbulent conditions and these are shown as the first four lines of Table 4. We have shown the results to three significant figures so that the effect of turbulence can be seen, although the contact rates cannot actually be known to this accuracy. The swimming speeds of autotrophic and heterotrophic flagellates are the same so aCA = aCH = aC, but aZD and aZC are shown separately because ciliates and diatoms have different swimming or sinking speeds. Comparing the calculated as of Table 4 with the allometric as of Table 1 we see that the calculated encounter-rates a are similar to or larger than the allometric a. This is what we would expect since a predator will not consume all the prey it encounters. We also see that the only significant effect of turbulence is on the contact rate of copepods with their prey and then only at the higher turbulence levels. From Table 4 we can see that the contact rate of copepods with diatoms is not significantly different from that of copepods with ciliates and we are justified in using one parameter, aZ, to describe both. Table 4 The first four lines give the values of the affinities a (l nmol P 1 h 1) in still and turbulent conditions as calculated from the encounter rate (Eq. (5.1)) T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 aHB 0.00986 0.00986 0.00987 0.009949 0.0100 aC 0.0180 0.0180 0.0181 0.0187 0.0193 0.0188 0.0189 0.0206 0.0312 0.0390 aZD aZC 0.0194 0.0195 0.0211 0.0315 0.0393 aZ ( 10 4) 4.5 4.5 4.9 7.3 9.1 lZ 71 71 64 43 35 The last two lines give the values of aZ and lZ to be used in the simulations. 113 To find the values of aZ to use in modelling the turbulent mesocosms we use the calculated encounter rates aZD of Table 4 to calculate the increase in encounter rate compared to that in the still mesocosm and then multiply this by the allometric value of aZ as given in Table 1. The corresponding values of lZ are calculated using Eq. (3.8) and the values of aZ and lZ are given as the final two lines of Table 4. The results using aZC instead of aZD differ only in the third significant figure of aZ. Lewis and Pedley (2001) extended their earlier work, using similar ideas to those of McKenzie et al. (1994), to include the effect of turbulence on capture probability. They postulated that the capture probability Pcap depends on the length of time a prey particle would spend in the capture sphere if the predator made no attempt at capture and that this time is affected by turbulence. They calculated the probability that the distance of closest approach of a prey particle to the predator is r, multiplied this by the probability of capturing the prey given that its closest approach is r and integrated over r, to find the number of prey N likely to be captured in a time T. The capture probability is assumed to be given by Pcap ¼ tðrÞ2 2 tðrÞ þ ð stRK Þ2 ð5:2Þ where tR, the handling time, is the length of time the predator needs to 1successfully handle and capture the prey and sK ¼ ðmeÞ2 is the Kolmogorov timescale. The non-dimensionalised time a prey particle spends in the contact sphere if the closest distance of approach is r, t(r), is given in terms of r, Rc, vH, vP and wT (see (see Lewis and Pedley, 2001, for full details). The affinity constant aPH is related to N, the number of prey likely to be captured in time T, by N aPH ¼ qH c P T pffiffiffi Z Rc 8p g3 g 2 drU Pcap 2rrU þ r ¼ dr; ð5:3Þ cP sK 0 dr where rU(r), the variance of the relative velocity of predator and prey, depends also on Rc, vH, vP and wT. The still and turbulent capture rates can be calculated from Eq. (5.3) using the values given in Table 2 and they are given in the first four lines of Table 5. As in Table 4, aCA = aCH = aC but aZD and aZC are shown 114 A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 Table 5 Values of the predator – prey capture rates a (in l nmol P 1 h 1) in still and turbulent conditions as calculated from Eq. (5.3) T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 8 aHB ( 10 ) 6.05 6.05 6.05 6.04 6.00 aC ( 10 7) 9.79 9.79 9.77 9.66 9.53 0.01626 0.01628 0.0173 0.0226 0.0256 aZD aZC 0.0166 0.0167 0.0176 0.0228 0.0257 aZ ( 10 4) 4.5 4.5 4.8 6.3 7.1 lZ 71 71 66 50 44 The last two lines give the values of aZ and lZ to be used in the simulations. separately and the results are shown to 3 or 4 significant figures so that the effect of turbulence can be seen. For aHB and aC turbulence causes a slight decrease in the capture rate. We would expect to see a large decrease in capture rate if the handling time were large, so the handling times for heterotrophic flagellates and ciliates have been deliberately overestimated, but even so the decrease is very slight so we can see that turbulence does not affect the capture rate for heterotrophic flagellates and ciliates. The difference between aZD and aZC is negligible. As before, the corresponding values of aZ and lZ for use in the computations are calculated from the percentage decrease in aZD (last two lines of Table 5). We see that aZD andaZC increase with turbulence, indicating that the dominant effect is the increase in encounter rate due to turbulence, although this increase is smaller than that found based on encounter rate alone (Table 4). If we used a longer copepod handling time (e.g. 1 s rather than 0.1 s) we would find that turbulence causes the capture rate to decrease. From the calculations in this section we see that turbulence increases the rate of predation by copepods and does not affect the rate of predation of ciliates or flagellates. In the computations we use the values of aZ and lZ given in Table 4. 6. Results The equations are integrated using a fifth-order embedded Cash-Karp Runge-Kutta method with adaptive step sizing (Press et al., 1992). The parameter values for the still mesocosms T0 and NT0 are given in Table 1. The only parameters affected by turbulence are aDN, lD, aZ and lZ. The values of aDN and lD in the turbulent mesocosms T1 – T4 and NT1 –NT4 are given in Table 3 and the values of aZ and lZ are given in Table 4. For the computations we use the parameter values correct to two significant figures, which means that the slightly turbulent mesocosms T1 and NT1 are identical to the still mesocosms T0 and NT0. We assume that, at this time of year the sea, and hence the initial state of the non-enriched mesocosms, can be represented by a steady-state solution of the model equations. For the nutrient-enriched mesocosms we increase the initial value of N. We present the experimental results in Section 6.1, in Section 6.2 we discuss the results of the linear models of Sections 3.1 and 3.2 and in Section 6.3 we present sample results from the nonlinear model of Section 3.3. 6.1. Experimental results When comparing the results of the model with those of the experiment, it should be remembered that the model should not be interpreted as a precise quantitative simulation, but rather as a qualitative indication of the effects of turbulence. We consider first the results of the non-enriched mesocosms. The clearest response to turbulence is seen in the populations of diatoms and copepods and we show the experimental concentrations of diatoms and copepods in Fig. 3a. For both diatoms and copepods the concentrations in the turbulent mesocosms increase more than in the still mesocosms. In the nutrient-enriched mesocosms the clearest response to turbulence is again seen in the populations of diatoms and copepods and these results are shown in Fig. 3b. For both diatoms and copepods the peak in concentration increases under turbulent conditions and the peak in copepod concentration occurs earlier under the highest turbulence level (NT4) than under the others. 6.2. Linear models Outside a narrow range of parameter values and initial conditions, the linear models of Sections 3.1 and 3.2 predict that the population of one (or more A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 115 Fig. 3. Experimental results. Concentrations of diatoms (D) and copepods (Z) in the nonenriched mesocosms (a) and in the enriched mesocosms (b). The different lines represent different experimental conditions: dotted line T0/NT0, short dashed line T1/NT1, long dashed line T2/NT2, dash-dot line T3/NT3, solid line T4/NT4. Note that for the copepods there are two lines for the still mesocosms, one for each of the replicates T0A/T0B and NT0A/NT0B. The population concentrations are given in nmol P l 1. commonly two) of the phytoplankton species will fall rapidly to zero. This means that the system is no longer the one we wish to consider and makes the linear models unsuitable as predictive tools. Previous authors (Moloney and Field, 1991, for example) have also found this problem with linear models. It can be overcome by introducing a threshold value into the grazing terms, so that grazing ceases once the prey population falls below a threshold value, or by introducing nonlinear grazing terms as we have done. If we consider the linear model of Section 3.1 we find that no steady state exists for the parameter values given in Table 1 in which the concentrations of all the species are positive. If we use the same initial state as for the nonlinear model of Section 3.3 (Eq. (6.3)) the populations of A and D fall rapidly towards zero and the system becomes a simple chain N-B-H-C-Z with only one species at each trophic level. This system does behave as one would expect. Increasing aZ causes D to fall more rapidly towards zero and the population of C and then Z to decrease. The population of H increases, A falls towards zero more slowly and B decreases. Decreasing aZ has the opposite effect and increasing aD has no effect (because the system contains no D).Although the system shows a response to turbulence it is not the system we are trying to model and the results are not applicable to our experiment. In reality a system with no phytoplankton would be doomed to extinction since no carbon is being fixed. Our model considers only inorganic nutrient and hence allows such a system to persist. The nutrient-enriched enclosures give similar results, moving rapidly to an unrealistic state with A and D zero. Even if we consider a parameter range for which the linear model does possess a steady-state solution 116 A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 with the populations of all species positive we do not fare any better. The parameters aBN ¼ 0:09; aAN ¼ 0:05; aDN ¼ 0:03; aHB ¼ 0:005; aCA ¼ aCH ¼ 0:001; aZD ¼ aZC ¼ 0:0002; ð6:1aÞ YH ¼ YC ¼ YZ ¼ 0:3; ð6:1bÞ dZ ¼ 0:002; have a steady state N ¼ 0:410; B ¼ 13:677; A ¼ 33:646; D ¼ 12:818; H ¼ 7:386; C ¼ 20:516; Z ¼ 61:547: ð6:2Þ Using Eq. (6.2) as the initial state and varying aD and aZ in the same proportions as previously we find that, for example, for a small increase in aZ (T2, aZ = 2.2 10 4) the populations of all species remain nonzero, but for a larger increase in aZ the populations of B and D fall to zero, which means that again we are not modelling the system we intend to. The nutrient-enriched mesocosms give similar results, with one or two of the phytoplankton populations falling to zero. The linear saturation model gives similarly unrealistic results with the population of one or two of the phytoplankton species always falling to zero. For some values of the parameters the model also predicts rapid fluctuations in population, which are unlikely to be found in reality. 6.3. Holling type III model Taking a total nutrient concentration of 250 nmol P l 1, the non-enriched steady state (mesocosm T0) is given by N ¼ 11:6; B ¼ 5:67; A ¼ 80:3; D ¼ 1:52; H ¼ 37:4; C ¼ 14:6; Z ¼ 98:9; ð6:3Þ where the concentrations are given in nmol P l 1. We use this as the initial condition for the computations for the non-enriched mesocosms. We consider the non-enriched mesocosms first. As lD decreases the population of D increases, leading to an increase in Z and also in C, presumably because of reduced predation on C due to the increased availability of D (Fig. 4). The increase in C leads to a decrease in H and A and an increase in B; this is probably due to decreased predation of H on B or to decreased competition for nutrients (Fig. 4). The population changes are small, although the percentage change in D is quite large. The effect of decreasing lZ is more marked, as shown in Fig. 5. A small decrease in lZ (T2) leads initially to a slight increase in the population of Z, which causes a decrease in the population of D and C. The decrease in C in turn leads to an increase in A and H, and hence to a decrease in B, due either to increased predation of H on B or to increased competition for nutrient from A. After the initial increase, Z decreases because of the decreased populations of D and C. The population of C then recovers, as does D, the populations of A and H start to fall again and the population of B increases again. For larger decreases in lZ (T3 and T4) the solution is qualitatively different and increased predation by Z causes the populations of D and C to fall almost to zero. The populations of A and H therefore increase and the population of B decreases. After an initial slight increase the population of Z also decreases. When lD and lZ are varied together the dominant effect seems to be the change in lZ. Decreasing lD and lZ, so that T0/T1 is lD = 60, lZ = 71; T2 is is lD = 52, lZ = 64; T3 is lD = 46, lZ = 43; T4 is lD = 44, lZ = 35, gives results that are almost indistinguishable from those of Fig. 5. In the experiment the enriched mesocosms have nutrient added as 1 Amol P l 1 (with N and Si in an appropriate ratio). Since an added nutrient level of 1 Amol P l 1 may not correspond to an effective increase of 1 Amol P l 1 in the ‘free nutrient’ of the model, we considered the effect of different initial values of N, ranging from N = 61.6 to N = 1011.6 nmolP l 1 (notionally equivalent to adding 50 – 1000 nmol P l 1). For a small value of added nutrient (N = 61.6 nmol P l 1) the populations fluctuate. Increased nutrient causes an initial increase in the population of A, which results in an increase in H (due to reduced predation on H) and a later increase in C. The increase in C then causes a decrease in A and H and an increase in B. As the populations of A and H decrease, C starts to decrease, but the decrease in C allows A and H to A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 117 Fig. 4. Results of computations for the non-enriched mesocosms for various values of lD. Decreasing lD corresponds to increasing the diatom nutrient uptake rate. Dotted line lD = 60 (steady state, T0/T1), dashed line lD = 52 (T2), dash-dot line lD = 46 (T3), solid line lD = 44 (T4). The population concentrations are given in nmol P l 1. recover, leading to the population fluctuations. As in the non-enriched case, the graphs remain qualitatively similar as lD is decreased, but the decrease in lD results in an increase in D, B, C and Z and a decrease in A and H, with the largest percentage change in D (Fig. 6a). 118 A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 Fig. 5. Results of computations for the non-enriched mesocosms for various values of lZ. Decreasing lZ corresponds to increasing the rate of grazing by copepods. Dotted line lZ = 71 (steady state, T0/T1), dashed line lZ = 64 (T2), dash-dot line lZ = 43 (T3), solid line lZ = 35 (T4). The population concentrations are given in nmol P l 1. As lZ decreases we see two qualitatively different solutions in the same way as in the non-enriched case. For NT0/NT1 and NT2 the populations fluc- tuate in a similar way to that discussed above (NT0/ NT1 is of course the same) although for NT2 the fluctuations are slower and of smaller amplitude. A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 119 Fig. 6. Results of computations for the nutrient-enriched mesocosms with N = 61.6 nmol P l 1. (a) decreasing lD, (b) decreasing lZ. Decreasing lD corresponds to increasing the diatom nutrient uptake rate and decreasing lZ corresponds to increasing the rate of grazing by copepods. Dotted line NT0/NT1, dashed line NT2, dash-dot line NT3, solid line NT4. The population concentrations are given in nmol P l 1. For NT3 and NT4 the increase in grazing by Z causes the populations of C and D to fall almost to zero, resulting in a slow decrease in Z, an increase in A and H and a decrease in B, with no fluctuations (Fig. 6b). For larger nutrient increases the population fluctuations are of larger amplitude and occur over a slightly faster timescale. For high nutrient concentrations there is little discernible difference in the solutions as lD decreases, with the largest percentage change still in D. As lZ decreases we still see two qualitatively different solutions, with the populations of C and D falling almost to zero in NT3 and NT4. For an initial nutrient concentration of N = 1011.6 nmol P l 1 only the NT4 solution is qualitatively different to the others. As for the non-enriched mesocosms, the dominant effect seems to be the change in lZ. Decreasing lD and lZ simultaneously gives results that are almost indistinguishable from those found by decreasing lZ alone. For both non-enriched and enriched mesocosms it is possible to vary lD and lZ together in such a way that neither effect dominates. However, this requires a smaller change in lZ and a larger change in lD than that predicted in Sections 4 and 5. 120 A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 7. Discussion We have described three types of model which could be used to describe the mesocosm experiment: a linear model, a linear saturation model and a nonlinear model. Outside a very narrow range of parameters and starting conditions the linear and saturation models give unrealistic results with one or more of the species concentrations falling to zero. For this reason the nonlinear model would seem to be the most useful for modelling the results of the mesocosm experiment. Our model indicates that turbulence should increase the nutrient uptake rate of diatoms but should not affect smaller phytoplankton or bacteria. We also find that the grazing rate of copepods will be affected by turbulence but that other zooplankton will be unaffected. The effect of turbulence on the copepod grazing rate depends on the contact radius and handling time of the copepod. For a short, realistic handling time turbulence will increase the rate at which copepods encounter prey without significantly affecting the capture probability and the copepod grazing rate will increase. If the handling time is longer, turbulence will reduce the capture probability and hence the grazing rate. We can see how important it is to have a detailed understanding of the dynamics of copepod hunting. There is some evidence that smaller plankton can be affected by turbulence (Peters and Marrasé, 2000; Dolan et al., 2003). These effects may be due to indirect effects of turbulence such as physiological changes to cells, particularly dinoflagellates (Peters and Marrasé, 2000) or a change in behaviour under turbulence (as suggested for ciliates by Dolan et al., 2003). In the model increased nutrient uptake by diatoms corresponds to a decrease in lD, which has only a small effect on the populations, resulting in an increase in the concentrations of diatoms, ciliates, copepods and bacteria and a decrease in autotrophic and heterotrophic flagellates. Increased copepod grazing corresponds to a decrease in lZ. This has broadly the opposite effect to decreasing lD and leads to an increase in the concentrations of diatoms, ciliates, copepods and bacteria and an increase in autotrophic and heterotrophic flagellates. The population changes for decreasing lZ are more marked than for decreasing lD and there are two qualitatively different solutions at low and high turbulence; for a sufficiently large decrease in lZ (T3 and T4) the populations of diatoms and ciliates fall almost to zero. When lD and lZ are varied together the dominant effect seems to be the change in copepod grazing. Increasing the initial concentration of free nutrient generally results in fluctuations in the plankton populations. As more nutrient is added these fluctuations become slightly more rapid and of larger amplitude. As in the non-enriched case, there is a qualitatively different solution when lZ is decreased in which the populations of diatoms and ciliates fall almost to zero. In the experiments turbulence increased the diatom and copepod concentrations in both non-enriched and enriched mesocosms. This suggests that the computational results of Figs. 4 and 6a, in which turbulence causes lD to decrease, reflect the experimental results more closely than the computational results of Figs. 5 and 6b, in which turbulence causes lZ to decrease. The dominant effect of turbulence therefore appears to be an increase in diatom nutrient uptake, which, in terms of our model parameters, corresponds to a decrease in lD. In the nutrient-enriched experiments (Fig. 3b) the peak in copepod concentration occurs earlier under the highest turbulence level (NT4) than under the others; this is not explained by the current model. Future mesocosm experiments will consider the effect of subjecting mesocosms to a gradient of added nutrient and to either still or turbulent conditions. These should give more insight into the interaction of nutrients and turbulence and provide further comparison for the model results. Several microcosm studies on the effect of turbulence on plankton communities have been reported. The microcosm experiments of Peters et al. (2002) found an increase in bacterial concentration under turbulent conditions, which was due to a reduced grazing pressure on bacteria. This result compares well with the model results for bacteria shown in Fig. 4. In similar microcosm experiments Alcaraz et al. (2002) found an increased phytoplankton bloom in turbulent conditions; this may correspond to the increase in diatom concentration predicted in Fig. 4. It should be remembered that the plankton community in those microcosm experiments will be different from that considered here, particularly since they used A.M. Metcalfe et al. / Journal of Marine Systems 49 (2004) 105–122 seawater from the North West Mediterranean and filtered though a smaller mesh. Acknowledgements We would like to thank everyone who provided experimental data and biological insight, particularly M. Alcaraz and M. 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