THE ELECTORAL CONSEQUENCES OF IDEOLOGICAL
PARTY POLARIZATION IN EUROPE
A Dissertation in
Political Science
Author:
Federico VEGETTI
Dissertation thesis written at the Center for Doctoral Studies in the Social and
Behavioral Sciences of the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences and
submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) of the Faculty of Social
Sciences at the University of Mannheim
http://d-nb.info/1054561214
Contents
Contents
iii
List of Figures
vii
List of Tables
ix
Acknowledgments
xi
1 Introduction
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1
Polarized Politics
Polarization: A Light Definition
The Causes of Polarization
Structure of the Book
5
8
10
12
2 Parameters of Polarization
15
2.1 The meaning of a position
2.2 Dimensions of political disagreement
2.3 Political actors and varieties of polarization
3 Measuring Party Polarization
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
39
Party position and importance
TWo measures of polarization
Comparing the vdE and the E&R indices
On polarization and the number of parties
Conclusions
4 Mechanical Effects of Polarization
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
15
17
26
39
42
49
58
63
65
Preferences and Choice
The Certainty of Party Preferences
Certainty and Party Positions
The Effect of Certainty on Voting Behavior
Predicting Preference Certainty
iii
67
70
72
76
82
iv
CONTENTS
4.6 Discussion and Conclusions
5 Salience Effects of Polarization
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
Valence with or without consensus?
Issue Differentiation and Issue Salience
The Implications of Left-Right Polarization
From Left-Right Polarization to Partisanship
Data, model specification, and results
Discussion and Conclusions
6 The Case of the Netherlands 1986-2002
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
Elections in the Netherlands, 1986-2002
Polarization and citizens' political behavior
Global vs. local competition
Discussion and Conclusions
7 Conclusions
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
Spatial Properties of Polarized Party Systems
Polarization, Political Conflict and Partisan Loyalties
Limits of the Study, and Directions for Future Research
Final Remarks
95
99
102
104
105
107
110
119
123
126
132
138
143
145
146
151
154
157
Bibliography
159
A Additional Figures and Tables
179
B Variables and Parties
185
B.l European Election Study
185
B.l.l Country/Election List
185
B.1.2 Party List
186
B.1.3 Descriptive Statistics
190
B.2 Dutch Parliamentary Election Study
190
B.2.1 Party List
190
B.2.2 Parties for which issue positions have been measured, by is­
sue and year
191
B.2.3 Descriptive Statistics
192
C Question Wordings
C.l European Election Study
C.l.l Principal Variables used in Chapters 4 and 5
C.2 Dutch Parliamentary Election Study
195
195
195
197
CONTENTS
v
C.2.1 Principal Variables from the DPES Cumulative Cross-Section
data set used in Chapter 6
197
C.2.2 Principal Variables from the DPES Panel data set used in
Chapter 4
197