Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman The conservation benefits of cost-effective land acquisition: A case study in Maryland Kent Donald Messer * Department of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, 454 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA Received 13 December 2004; revised 28 May 2005; accepted 26 July 2005 Available online 25 October 2005 Abstract Economic theory asserts that to achieve maximum conservation benefits land acquisition needs to be cost effective. Yet the most common planning technique used by land conservation organizations is ‘benefit-targeting’ that focuses only on acquiring parcels with the highest benefits and ignores costs. Unlike most of the literature which focuses on covering problems, this research applies optimization techniques to achieve maximum aggregate conservation benefits for an ongoing land acquisition effort in the Catoctin Mountain Region in central Maryland. For this case study, optimization yields additional conservation benefits worth an estimated $3.1–$3.9 million or achieves the same level of conservation benefits but at a cost savings ranging from $0.9 to $3.5 million, depending on the initial budget size. Finally, the highest efficiencies are achieved in low budget scenarios, like those most prevalent in conservation efforts. q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Reserve selection; Binary linear programming; Benefit-targeting 1. Introduction In its essence, the acquisition of land parcels to achieve conservation objectives given a limited budget is a basic economic program. Over the past 5 years, voters in the United States have approved $20 billion in local and state funding to acquire properties and/or development rights in areas that they consider to offer significant ecological benefits and Land Trusts have protected an additional 500,000 acres per year for the past 10 years (Land Trust Alliance, 2004). These types of conservation organizations typically invest significant resources in measuring and mapping the various ecological benefits of areas targeted for potential acquisition. However, seldom is equivalent effort given to estimating parcel acquisition costs nor are these cost estimates used to maximize aggregate conservation benefits. Instead, conservation organizations frequently acquire the parcels with the highest ranked conservation benefits until their budget is exhausted. This type of planning can be referred to as ‘benefit-targeting’ (BT). * Tel.: C1 607 255 4223; fax: C1 607 255 9984. E-mail address: [email protected]. 0301-4797/$ - see front matter q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.07.008 A number of economic studies have cautioned against directing financial resources towards land acquisition in areas without regard to cost, especially when the parcels with the highest ecological values also tend to be the most expensive (Ando et al., 1998; Babcock et al., 1996; 1997; Church et al., 1996; Polasky et al., 2001; Wu et al., 2001) and when the parcels’ costs are relatively more heterogeneous than the benefits (Ferraro, 2003a). Yet, a significant gap exists between the theoretical understanding of the problem and the actual practices of conservation organizations (Prendergast et al., 1999). One reason for this gap is that little research has been done to measure the additional conservation benefits or cost savings that may result from applying optimization techniques to specific ongoing conservation efforts. Without compelling case studies, adoption of more efficient methods may remain an elusive goal. Another challenge facing adoption is that most of the existing literature on reserve site selection has focused on ‘covering’ problems, which are more abstract than the problems facing most conservation organizations. Initially, the literature on covering problems used information regarding the distribution of important conservation objects, such as endangered species, among potential preserve areas and sought to determine the minimum number of preserves needed to protect as many species as possible. Later studies investigated how a maximum number of species could be conserved within a given number of protected areas 306 K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 (for a review, see Cabeza and Moilanen, 2001; ReVelle et al., 2002; Rodrigues and Gaston, 2002). It is well known that BT does not yield optimal results for covering problems (Underhill, 1994; Rodrigues et al., 2000; Rodrigues and Gaston, 2002). This research uses similar analytical techniques as the literature on covering, but applies these techniques to the problem of how a conservation organization can maximize aggregate benefits within a specific conservation target. This case study analyzes the State of Maryland’s efforts to conserve additional areas in the Catoctin Mountains Region, the location of the US presidential retreat of Camp David. Binary linear programming (BLP) guarantees optimality by favoring the acquisition of ‘Best Buy’ parcels and selecting a cost-effective portfolio (or set) of parcels given a particular budget level. In this study, the Conservation Value of each of the potential acquisitions is evaluated independently from one another and the conservation organization seeks to obtain the most benefits given a specific budget constraint. This research documents the efficiency gains of using the BLP instead of BT and shows that the largest efficiency gains are achieved in the low budget level scenarios, the scenarios most prevalent in conservation settings. This paper is organized as follows. The second section will outline the theory underlying the two models. The third section describes the key biophysical characteristics and cost information involved in the Catoctin Mountain case study. The fourth section compares the results of the two models given the priorities established by the State of Maryland’s Department of Natural Resources (Maryland DNR) and describes different extensions of this type of analysis. The fifth section discusses the implications of this research and offers final comments. a conservation organization could incorporate BLP in its planning process.1 2.1. Binary linear programming (BLP) This paper uses a variation of integer linear programming, referred to as ‘binary’ linear programming, where the integers are limited to zero or one. In this case, the binary choice is whether to ‘protect’ or ‘not protect’ a particular parcel. BLP takes into account both the benefits and costs of each parcel and evaluates all of the possible purchase combinations that lie within the specified budget constraint and selects the portfolio which yields the highest possible aggregate Conservation Value. Let iZ1,2,.,I denote an index for various parcels of land. Let jZ1,2,.,J denote the index for scores of the various biophysical attributes. The conservation benefit of the ith parcel for the jth attribute is denoted by Ai, jR0. Each of the J attributes is assigned a subjective weight, denoted Wj. This weight reflects the relative importance a conservation organization gives a certain attribute. Consequently, the Conservation Value (Vi) of the ith parcel is given by: Vi Z For nearly three decades (Church and ReVelle, 1974), academics have discussed how ‘greedy style heuristics’ often provide suboptimal solutions and have advocated the use of integer linear programming (Church et al., 1996). Integer linear programming is a calculation-intensive process that finds the optimal solution to a problem with multiple attributes and constraints using a branch-and-bound algorithm. However, the potential conservation benefits of applying integer linear programming to conservation efforts did not gather significant attention until Underhill (1994) pointed out that only integer linear programming guaranteed an optimal solution. A further limitation of integer linear programming has been the complexity of its calculations, which took considerable time even with the most sophisticated computers. However, with advances in computer technology, planning tools based on integer linear programming can be used on problems that were previously nearly impossible to solve (Onal, 2004; Azzaino et al., 2002; Rodrigues and Gaston, 2002; Camm et al., 1996; Pressey et al., 1996; Csuti et al., 1997). This section outlines the theoretical basis for both BLP and BT and describes how Wj Ai;j (1) jZ1 BLP seeks to maximize the aggregate Conservation Value of the portfolio given by V(X): Max VðXÞ Z I X J X Xi Wj Ai;j (2) iZ1 jZ1 Subject to a budget constraint (B) I X 2. Theory J X C i Xi % B (3) iZ1 and XiZ{0,1}, where XiZ0 indicates that the ith parcel is not recommended for acquisition and XiZ1 indicates that the ith parcel is recommended for acquisition.2 The vector XZ [X1,X2,.,XI] represents the portfolio of the conservation organization, where initially X is a vector of zeros.3 If the conservation organization uses its financial resources to acquire parcel iZ7, X7 changes from X7Z0 to X7Z1. 1 An alternative technique, referred to as ‘Benefit–Cost Ratio Targeting,’ is used by the United State Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program and Environmental Quality Incentives Program. While this research does not focus on the comparative advantages of BLP, Appendix A provides a simple numerical example demonstrating that Benefit–Cost Ratio Targeting does not guarantee optimality and can be quite inefficient when dealing with situations with multiple constraints. 2 Alternatively, the acquisition of parcels could be considered as continuous instead of discrete. This may be reasonable given that (i) land can be split, (ii) conservation easements can be used instead of just acquisition, and (iii) additional revenue can always be raised for a single parcel for which the current budget is not sufficient enough to acquire. 3 In this research, the tolerance within Solver was set to zero and there were no problems with non-convergence. K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 Given the increasing use of Geographic Information System (GIS) software, organizations frequently have (or can readily obtain) information on conservation benefits and acquisition costs at a parcel-specific level. Tables of this parcel-specific data can then be exported from GIS to Microsoft Excel, where a binary optimization problem can be solved using Frontline System’s Premium Solver V3.5. The results can then be quantitatively analyzed within Excel and exported back to GIS for special analysis. 307 iterative process, parcels are selected in this manner until the financial resources are exhausted. Note that if all the land costs were identical, then BT and BLP would yield the same conservation portfolio. However, in cases where land costs are heterogeneous, the efficiency of BLP will become evident. In general, the efficiency of BLP is high when parcels’ benefits and costs are positively correlated (see Babcock et al., 1997). As pointed out by Ferraro (2003a), the efficiency difference can be largest in situations, like this case study, where the costs are relatively more heterogeneous than the benefits. 2.2. Benefit-targeting (BT) 3. Case study—Catoctin Mountains, Maryland BT is used commonly in national and international conservation efforts. The primary advantage of this technique is that a conservation agency can identify the lands they want to acquire without having to collect cost information until they enter purchase negotiations. However, this advantage comes with the disadvantage that the aggregate lands purchased do not necessarily maximize aggregate conservation benefits. BT uses the same linear equation to derive each parcel’s Conservation Value (Eq. (1)). BT’s portfolio is determined by ranking all of the parcels from highest to lowest based on the Conservation Values and selecting as many of the highest-ranked parcels as possible given the available budget. Formally, BT’s selection algorithm can be written as follows. Let R($) denote the rank operator over the Conservation Values Vi. Let RiZR(V1,.,VI) be the rank of the ith parcel. The parcel or parcels with the highest Conservation Value receive a rank of one. Again, let XiZ{0,1}. After ranking all of the parcels, they are arrayed in the following format: Rank Parcels Cost 1 Xi ; Xk ; Xl Ci ; Ck ; Cl 2 Xm ; Xn Cm ; Cn « « « R Xr Cr In situations, where the parcels have equal rank, the conservation organization tries to purchase the lowest cost parcel. For example, if parcels i, k, and l have the same rank and Ci!Ck!Cl, then: Xi Z 1 if Ci % B Xi Z 0 if Ci O B Xk Z 1 if Ck % BKXi Ci Xk Z 0 if Ck O BKXi Ci Xl Z 1 if Cl % BKðXi Ci C Xk Ck Þ Xl Z 0 if Cl O BKðXi Ci C Xk Ck Þ In May 2001, Maryland Governor Parris N. Glendening signed legislation authorizing the establishment of the ‘GreenPrint’ program and the expenditure of $35 million to help preserve two million acres of the state’s ecologically significant areas. Since approximately three-quarters of this identified area lacks formal protection and faces the threat of development, the legislation sought to protect the ‘Green Infrastructure’ (GI) of ecologically rich ‘hubs’ connected together by habitat ‘corridors’ (Maryland DNR, 2001). The GreenPrint legislation specifically called for all conservation funds to be directed to areas within the targeted Green Infrastructure. The GreenPrint program is administered by the Maryland DNR, and the Catoctin Mountain Region was selected as an area of special attention given its ecological, historical, and political importance. The Catoctin Mountains are situated in central Maryland and are an extension of the Blue Ridge geological feature of the Appalachian Mountains. This study focuses on the North Catoctin area which lies primarily within Frederick County. The agricultural lands to the east of the mountains tend to have lower ecological values than the mountain areas, which extend from south to north. The Catoctin Mountains already have significant areas protected by a variety of local, state, and federal agencies and are also the location for the Presidential retreat of Camp David. This research involved an analysis of 186 parcels in the Catoctin Mountain Region that were identified by the GreenPrint program as being within a special designation called the Green Infrastructure and having the highest Ecological Score (defined below). To determine the Conservation Value of each parcel in the Catoctin Mountain area, Maryland DNR developed scores for a variety of biophysical attributes based on data sources including land cover, soil composition, proximity to roadways, watershed boundaries, and endangered species habitat (Maryland DNR, 2001).4 An expert panel assembled by the GreenPrint program identified five biophysical attributes as being the most critical in determining the Conservation Value for a particular parcel. Table 1 summarizes the key statistics for these five attributes. and so on: BT can be viewed as a type of ‘greedy agent’ algorithm, where once all parcels have been ranked the agency seeks to purchase the parcel with the highest Conservation Value that it can afford from the remaining set of unprotected parcels. Through an 4 The determination of the ‘correct’ biophysical attributes and corresponding weights to measure conservation benefits is in itself an area of investigation. This research takes as a given the attributes and weights determined by Maryland DNR and focuses on demonstrating the efficiency of BLP within the existing Maryland DNR planning framework. 308 K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 Table 1 Descriptive statistics of the five biophysical attributes, conservation value, and parcel cost Min Max Mean Median St. dev. Coefficient of variation Acres of GI Percent GI Ecological Score Protected land w/in 1 mile Percent gain Conservation value Parcel cost 18.0 392.0 55.3 40.0 10.3 15.0% 100.0% 93.6% 100.0% 41.5% 53.7 94.6 86.0 86.9 18.2 0 2864 596 511 1275 0.1% 36.5% 1.5% 0.3% 18.0% 1.16 6.16 3.74 3.76 2.04 0.55 $3250 $766,530 $78,153 $66,930 $360,057 4.61 3.1. Acres of Green Infrastructure (acres of GI) 3.6. Conservation Value This attribute is the number of acres within each parcel that are part of the designated Green Infrastructure. The Maryland DNR expert panel weighted the relative importance of each of the biophysical attributes (Maryland DNR, 2002). The weights (Wj) are as follows: 3.2. Percent of parcel’s acreage within the Green Infrastructure (Percent GI) Acres of Green Infrastructure ðW1 Þ : 2 Percent of Green Infrastructure ðW2 Þ : 1 This attribute is the amount of a particular parcel that lies within the Green Infrastructure. For example, if a 50-acre parcel has 35 acres within the GI, then it would be given a score of 70%, while a 50-acre parcel that has all 50 acres within the GI would be given a score of 100%. 3.3. Ecological Score This attribute is calculated as the average score from a variety of ecological conditions as identified by the GreenPrint program. Factors included 16 different measures which include both local features, such as the occurrence of rare flora and fauna, and measurements from a landscape context, such as the importance of the hub/corridor within the ‘physiographic region’ (Maryland DNR, 2001). The parcel’s Ecological Score is calculated based on the acreage of the parcel that lies within the Green Infrastructure. 3.4. Protected land within 1 mile This attribute is the number of previously protected acres within 1 mile of the parcel. 3.5. Percent Gain to the Green Infrastructure (Percent Gain) This attribute is a measure of a parcel’s relative size compared to its local hub or corridor of the Green Infrastructure, as identified by the GreenPrint program. In general, the size of the hubs tends to be greater than the size of the corridors. Therefore, this attribute has a wide range of values. The majority of the parcels have scores less than 1%, but some parcels have scores up to 36.5% and because the study area includes several hubs and corridors, it is possible for a portfolio to have an aggregate Percent Gain greater than 100%. Ecological Score ðW3 Þ : 3 Protected Land within 1 mile ðW4 Þ : 1 Percent Gain ðW5 Þ : 1 The data for each of the biophysical attributes was normalized to a scale from zero to one. The normalization establishes a common metric for each of these attributes while preserving the relative scores that a parcel has for each attribute. The normalization equation is as follows: NVi Z Ai;j KAmin j min Amax KA j j (4) max are the lowest and highest scores for where Amin j and Aj each of the biophysical attributes, respectively. Consequently, a parcel with the lowest value has a normalized score of zero for that attribute and a parcel with the highest value has a normalized score of one for that attribute. With these normalized attributes, the parcel’s Conservation Value (Vi) can be calculated by summing the product of each of the normalized scores and each of the weights. Specifically, the equation for a parcel’s Conservation Value is: Vi Z 2 !ðAcres of GIÞ C 1 !ðPercent GIÞ C 3 !ðEcological ScoreÞ C 1 !ðProtected Land within 1 mileÞ C 1 !ðPercent GainÞ (5) In this study, the Conservation Values for the parcels are roughly normally distributed (skewZ0.84) with a minimum of 1.36, a maximum of 6.99, a mean of 3.74, a median of 3.78, and a standard deviation of 0.58. The aggregate Conservation Value of 186 parcels included in this study is 695.38. K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 3.7. Cost (Ci) The cost of each parcel was provided by the State of Maryland’s MdProperty View. This research used the ‘land value’ estimates for each parcel, which Maryland DNR determined to be a better estimate of the market costs being paid by the ongoing land acquisition effort. The land values ranged from $3250 to $766,530. The general distribution was skewed with a tail to the right (skewZ5.27) and had a mean cost of $78,153, a median cost of $66,930, and a standard deviation of $72,027. The costs per acre are more normally distributed, though still skewed to the right (skewZ1.18) with a mean cost of $1527 per acre, a median cost of $1323 per acre, and a standard deviation of $2454. As discussed earlier, the highest discrepancy between the efficiency of BLP and BT is when benefits and costs are positively correlated, rZ0.37. Additionally, the heterogeneity of costs, as measured by the coefficient of variation (standard deviation divided by the mean), is relatively much higher for costs, 4.61, than it is for Conservation Values, 0.55 (Table 2). 3.8. Budget (B) The Maryland DNR estimates that annual conservation spending in the Northern Catoctin Mountain region would be $1 million. However, Maryland DNR was also interested in a broader, long-range analysis, so this study also explored the results from a $2.5 million budget and a $5 million budget (Wolf, personal communication). 4. Results 309 guarantee that its overall portfolio will have the highest aggregate Conservation Value possible. In fact, BT may select a portfolio that falls dramatically short of achieving the maximum possible aggregate Conservation Value. In contrast, BLP takes into account both the benefits and costs of each parcel and selects the portfolio which yields the highest aggregate Conservation Value. When both of these techniques were run using the same data, weights, and costs described above, the efficiency of BLP’s portfolio in comparison to the BT’s portfolio becomes readily apparent. As the Lorenz curves in Fig. 1 demonstrate, BLP achieves a much higher percentage of the total possible Conservation Value at all budget levels than does BT, especially at the lower budget levels that are most relevant to the ongoing acquisition efforts. With a budget of $1 million (6.9% of the total cost of the study area), BLP achieves an impressive 24.7% of the total possible Conservation Value of the study area, while BT achieves only 5.0% of the total possible Conservation Value. Similarly, for budgets of $2.5 million and $5 million (17.2 and 34.4% of the total cost, respectively) BLP achieves 40.8 and 60.3% of the total possible Conservation Value, while BT achieves only 11.5 and 30.6% of the total possible Conservation Value, respectively. A useful measure of the relative efficiency between the two techniques is the Gini coefficient, which can be derived by calculating the area between the Lorenz Curves and the 458 line (see Babcock et al., 1996; 1997). The formula for the Gini coefficient is 21 3 ð 1 G Z 24 FðBÞdBK 5 2 (6) 0 As previously discussed, BT represents the common decision-rule (algorithm) used by conservation organizations in land acquisition efforts. While BT guarantees the selection of the parcels with the highest Conservation Values, it does not where F(B) is the fraction of the total conservation benefits achieved at a budget level, B. The Gini coefficient was calculated by subtracting the area under the 458 line Table 2 Results of BT and BLP portfolios BT $1 million budget Parcels Conservation Value Cost Acres protected Ecological Score $2.5 million budget Parcels Conservation Value Cost Acres protected Ecological Score $5 million budget Parcels Conservation Value Cost Acres protected Ecological Score BLP Times greater Percent increase 24.2% 24.7% 6.9% 18.8% 24.6% 6.4 4.9 1.0 1.6 6.2 542.9% 394.2% K0.1% 64.0% 524.5% 74 283.5 $2,498,170 3333 6469 39.8% 40.8% 17.2% 32.4% 40.4% 4.4 3.6 1.0 1.6 4.2 335.3% 255.3% 0.0% 57.8% 324.5% 111 419 $4,995,740 5070 9615 59.7% 60.3% 34.4% 49.3% 60.1% 2.3 2.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 126.5% 96.9% K0.1% 41.9% 116.6% Values % of total Values % of total 7 34.7 $999,700 1178 629 3.8% 5.0% 6.9% 11.4% 3.9% 45 171.5 $998,970 1932 3928 17 79.8 $2,497,320 2112 1524 9.1% 11.5% 17.2% 20.5% 9.5% 49 212.8 $4,999,000 3754 4440 26.3% 30.6% 34.4% 34.7% 27.8% 310 K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 100% 90% Percent of Total Benefits 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% BLP: Conservation Value individual attributes, due to the general correlation between an individual parcel’s Conservation Value and the weighted biophysical attributes. Note that while BLP will frequently achieve a higher score on the various biophysical attributes, this is not guaranteed. To ensure a minimal score for a particular attribute (i.e., protected acres of GI), an additional constraint specifying this minimal score could be added. For example, suppose the conservation organization has a goal of purchasing a minimum number of acres of land (H), where each parcel size is denoted by Hi. In this case, BLP would seek to maximize aggregate Conservation Value (Eq. (1)) subject to budget constraint (Eq. (2)) and a lower bound constraint on the number of acres (Eq. (7)): BLP: Acres Protected 45 degree line BT: Conservation Value BT: Acres Protected I X Hi X i R H (7) iZ1 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent of Total Cost Fig. 1. Lorenz Curves for BLP and BT. from the area of the trapezoids for 21 budget scenarios and multiplying this number by two. Using this measure, BLP has an efficiency of 74.4% while BT has an efficiency of K7.9%. The greater the difference is between the two Gini Coefficients, the greater the loss of efficiency in using BT instead of BLP. Fig. 1 also demonstrates the relative efficiency for other biophysical attributes, such as GI Acres Protected. BLP not only achieves the highest possible aggregate Conservation Value, but also generally yields higher scores for each of the However, depending on the values for the budget constraint and the minimum number of acres to protect, a portfolio may not exist which can satisfy both constraints. The relative efficiency of BLP can be shown through a direct comparison of attribute statistics and maps at the three different budget levels. For example, Fig. 2 highlights the parcels recommended for purchase by BT and BLP at the budget level of $2.5 million. The parcels considered by the techniques either are shown in black (recommended for purchase) or in light gray (not recommended). Currently protected parcels are represented in a darker shade of gray and the city of Thurmont is marked by slashes. The box on Fig. 2. BT and BLP conservation portfolios with $2.5 million budget. K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 the bottom right-hand side of each map summarizes the key statistics for the portfolios selected by each technique. As anticipated, BLP achieves a significantly higher aggregate Conservation Value than BT. For the budget scenarios of $1 million, $2.5 million, and $5 million, BLP has an aggregate Conservation Value, which is 4.9, 3.6, and 2.0 times larger than that achieved by BT, respectively (Table 2). Likewise, BLP achieves higher scores for each of the biophysical attributes than BT. For example, BLP with a $2.5 million budget preserves 1.6 times as many acres of Green Infrastructure and scores 4.2 times higher for the aggregate Ecological Score. The cost savings of BLP can be calculated in a variety of ways (Table 3). One way is to calculate how much money would be required for BT to achieve an equivalent aggregate Conservation Value as BLP. For the three budget scenarios, the additional cost would be $3.1, $3.7, and $3.9 million, respectively. As shown in Fig. 1, the relative benefits, and thus cost savings, of BLP increase at a decreasing rate. For example, with a $2.5 million budget, BLP achieves an aggregate Conservation Value of 283.5, while BT can achieve this aggregate Conservation Value at a cost of $6,176,960 (147.3% higher). Another way of considering the cost effectiveness of BLP is to calculate the minimum expenditure required for BLP to achieve an aggregate Conservation Value equivalent to BT at a specific budget level. This problem can be solved as a binary optimization problem where the objective is to minimize total cost such that the aggregate Conservation Value is greater than or equal to the aggregate Conservation Value from BT. For the three budget scenarios, BLP can achieve the aggregate Conservation Value of BT for just $84,930, $290,030, and $1,492,200 (a cost savings of $0.9 million, $2.2 million and $3.5 million, respectively). The close-up examination of the study provides an intuitive explanation for the results discussed above. For example, Table 3 Estimated cost savings Aggregate Conservation Value Cost Difference Money BLP would need to achieve same aggregate Conservation Value as BT $1 million budget BT 35 $1,000,000 K$915,070 BLP 35 $84,930 $2.5 million budget BT 80 $2,500,000 K$2,209,970 BLP 80 $290,030 $5 million budget BT 213 $5,000,000 K$3,507,800 BLP 213 $1,492,200 Money BT would need to achieve the same aggregate Conservation Value as BLP BT 172 $4,125,120 $3,125,120 BLP 172 $1,000,000 BT 284 $6,176,960 $3,676,690 BLP 284 $2,500,000 BT 419 $8,938,980 $3,938,980 BLP 419 $5,000,000 311 Table 4 Biophysical attributes of the two “Cadillac” parcels Parcel #1 Conservation Value Cost Acres of GI Percent GI Ecological Score Protected within 1 mile Percent gain Parcel #2 Values Rank Values Rank 5.47 $258,070 168 100.0% 93.3 2104 1.2% 3 5 7 1 11 2 18 6.99 $766,530 392 100.0% 93.4 2864 2.9% 1 1 1 1 8 1 12 consider two unprotected parcels in the middle of the Catoctin Mountain Region (Parcel #1 and Parcel #2), which are surrounded by large tracts of already protected lands. These two tracts are among the largest parcels, have some of the highest ecological scores, and have the highest number of acres protected within 1 mile (Table 4). Consequently, they rank 3rd and 1st in Conservation Value, respectively. Since BT selects the parcels with the highest Conservation Values, Parcel #2 is selected in all budget scenarios and Parcel #1 is selected with the $2.5 and $5 million budgets. However, BLP does not select either of these parcels under any budget scenario. The reason for the differences between these two techniques is that Parcel #1 and Parcel #2 are among the most expensive of the study area, which is consistent with the positive correlation between benefits and costs. Parcel #1 is the 5th most expensive to purchase at a cost of $258,080 and Parcel #2 is the most expensive to purchase at a cost of $766,530. Only six other parcels cost more than $200,000 and just 37 parcels cost more than $100,000. While Parcel #1 and Parcel #2 cost several times more than other parcels, they do not provide a corresponding increase in conservation benefits. In fact, 49 other parcels (26.3%) have Conservation Values greater than 4.0 and 172 parcels (92.5%) have scores higher than 3.0. This large difference in costs relative to the small difference in conservation benefits explains why BLP consistently excludes these high cost parcels from its portfolio. Since BLP selects the cost efficient portfolio, these two highConservation Value, high-cost parcels are excluded in favor of high Conservation Value, low-cost parcels. In other words, BT selects the most expensive ‘Cadillac’ parcels of the study area, such as parcels #1 and #2, while BLP selects the ‘Best Buy’ parcels as low-cost substitutes and in the process achieves a higher level of aggregate benefits. In addition to determining the optimal portfolio, this research explored a couple of real-world extensions. 4.1. Threat of development The threat of development facing a particular parcel can be included in a static analysis.5 In this case, the Conservation Value of the parcel may need to include the probability that 5 Alternatively, the issue of development threat could be treated as a dynamic problem (see Costello and Polasky, 2004). 312 K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 some of its biophysical attributes will be diminished or destroyed in the foreseeable future. To capture this factor, a metric can be developed to represent the probability that a parcel will be developed if not protected. For example, a parcel with a high development risk would be given a higher score, while a parcel that faces minimal development risk would be given a lower score. By including this factor, financial resources can be directed towards the parcels which are more likely to lose their biophysical values if not protected. It would be possible to weight each parcel i by Pi, the subjective probability that the ith parcel will be developed at some future date. The expected aggregate risk-weighted Conservation Value of the portfolio XZ[X1,X2,.,XI] becomes: EfVðXÞg Z I X iZ1 Pi Xi J X jZ1 Wj Ai;j Z I X J X Pi Xi Wj Ai;j (8) iZ1 jZ1 In this case, Maryland DNR has developed a ‘Risk’ score for each of the parcels. This score takes into account a number of factors, such as the parcel’s current level of protection from development, the steepness of slopes, distance from roads such as the Washington DC beltway, and proximity to commercial and industrial land use (Maryland DNR, 2001). For the Catoctin Mountain Region, most of the development pressure occurs along Highway 15 east of the mountains near the City of Thurmont (Fig. 3). In this study, the range for Risk scores was 1.3–68.1 with a mean of 29.2, a median of 27.6, and standard deviation of 12.1. By normalizing these scores using Eq. (4) provided earlier, an index was created from 0 to 1. This index represents the probability of development. This index was then multiplied by the parcel’s original Conservation Value. Thus, if the parcel faced no development risk, the risk-weighted Conservation Value would be zero. Since the risk-weighted Conservation Values will be lower than the Conservation Values presented earlier, comparisons of the aggregate Conservation Values for portfolios that include and do not include the threat of development are not meaningful. Including the measure of the risk of development for Parcels #1 and #2 (the two ‘Cadillac’ parcels discussed earlier) has a significant impact on their risk-weighted Conservation Values. Parcel #1 faces a relatively low threat of development as its Risk score is 23.8 (ranked 118th out of 186). Therefore, including this measure reduces Parcel #1’s Conservation Value Fig. 3. Development risk. K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 from 5.5 (ranked 3rd) to 1.8 (ranked 63rd). Similarly, Parcel #2 has a Risk score of 26.2 (ranked 106th), which reduces its Conservation Value from 7.0 (ranked 1st) to 2.6 (ranked 17th). Interestingly, by including the threat of development, Parcel #1 is never selected by either BT or BLP and Parcel #2 is only selected by BT at the $2.5 and $5 million budget levels. By including development risk into the analysis, both BLP and BT should be more efficient since resources would be directed towards the areas with the highest probability of losing their biophysical value. Examination of the key statistics with the risk of development again shows that BLP outperforms BT. 313 be passed over in favor of next highest ranked, lower cost parcel. While this finding occurs only at the lowest budget level, it further illustrates a weakness of BT, especially since the low budget levels are the most likely to be relevant in conservation efforts. Similarly, when evaluated with Lorenz Curves and Gini Coefficients, the BT with easements performed even worse in comparison to the BLP with easements. In fact, the Gini coefficient for the BT decreased from K7.9 to K15.2% while the inclusion of easements increased BLP’s efficiency from 74.4 to 87.4%. These measures again demonstrate the flexibility of BLP and its ability to account for multiple factors when selecting the optimal portfolio. 4.2. Easements and fee-simple purchases 4.3. Spatial continuity Conservation organizations have increasingly turned to easements as a cost-savings approach. Unlike fee-simple purchases that secure title to the property, conservation easements seek to preserve the Conservation Value of the parcel by preserving the current land use (i.e. forestry or agriculture) through purchase of just the development rights. Frequently, a combination of fee-simple purchases and conservation easements are employed, because conservation easements may not provide the level of protection desired (i.e. for endangered species) or the current land use may conflict with planned recreational uses (i.e. trail system). In the study area, Maryland DNR recommended the use of the three decision rules for fee-simple purchase: (i) if the parcel provides habitat to sensitive or threatened species; (ii) if the parcel contains stream footage for brook trout; and (iii) if the parcel contains an existing/planned greenway. If a parcel did not meet any of these three qualifications, a conservation easement would be pursued, which was conservatively estimated to secure the same Conservation Value at half the cost.6 Including the easement option for all three of the budget scenarios for BLP yields aggregate Conservation Values between 25.6 and 33.5% higher than BLP portfolios that considered only fee-simple purchases. Similarly, the BTs with budgets of $2.5 million and $5 million yield higher aggregate Conservation Values, than BTs with budget of $2.5 million and $5 million that consider only fee-simple purchases. Surprisingly, with a $1 million budget the BT yields an aggregate Conservation Value of 27.2 which is 28.6% less than the aggregate Conservation Value of 34.7 from BT that considers only fee-simple purchases. An explanation for this unexpected result is that when easements are available it can make some of the highest ranking parcels cost less, which in turn can free up money for a ‘Cadillac’ parcel that is high ranking but also has a high price that exhausts the remaining budget. Without the option of easements, this ‘Cadillac’ parcel might not have been affordable, and therefore, would 6 In practice, the cost of easements has a wider range than examined here. In this case, Maryland DNR recommended using a conservative cost estimate, which is consistent with estimates in other published research (see Ferraro, 2003a). The scenarios presented in this paper assumed that the biophysical attributes do not change as a consequence of the portfolio choice, an assumption that does not fully account for the importance of contiguous habitat areas. Recent work has focused on developing new models to identify more contiguous reserve systems (see Williams et al., 2004 for an overview), while other research has focused on the importance of ecological thresholds, where environmental benefits are only achieved if a certain amount of protection is obtained (see Ferraro, 2003b; Bulte and van Kooten, 2001; Wu et al., 2000). Interaction between the ecological attributes and the selected portfolio could introduce a non-linear element that could also be modeled, albeit with additional difficulty. In this case study, the attribute of ‘Number of protected acres within 1 mile’ could be modified to include the values of adjacent parcels if two or more parcels are selected. For instance, if three other non-protected parcels (Parcel A, B, and C) bordered a Parcel Z, the parcel’s value for this attribute would be defined as the following where the Xi’s are binary choice variables: Parcel Zð# of protected acres within 1 mileÞ Z Parcel Z 0 s Conservation Value C XA !ðacres of Parcel AÞ C XB !ðacres of Parcel BÞ C XC !ðacres of Parcel CÞ (9) An advantage of this type of non-linear modeling is that an optimal portfolio might do a better job of preserving contiguous areas. Unfortunately, this type of modeling would be difficult, as each parcel would have a unique equation because the number of unprotected parcels within one mile would be different for each parcel. 5. Conclusion While much of the previous literature has focused on a variety of covering problems, this research compared the results of binary linear programming (BLP) to results from benefit-targeting (BT), commonly used by conservation 314 K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 organizations, for a case study of an ongoing conservation effort in the Catoctin Mountains of Maryland. The results show that the ‘greedy algorithm’ of the BT can lead to highly inefficient results as the BLP was able to achieve far higher aggregate conservation benefits for the same level of expenditure. The use of optimization techniques can help conservation organizations look beyond the ‘Cadillac’ parcels, which deplete the conservation budget while not contributing much to the aggregate conservation benefits. The resulting portfolio will likely favor acquiring multiple ‘Best Buy’ parcels which individually may not appear as valuable, but when combined provide significantly more aggregate conservation benefits for the same cost. For this case study, optimization yields additional conservation benefits worth an estimated $3.1–$3.9 million or achieves the same level of conservation benefits but at a cost savings ranging from $0.9 to $3.5 million, depending on the initial budget size. Finally, the highest efficiencies are achieved in low budget scenarios, like those common in conservation efforts. BLP can be applied to a number of settings, including watershed protection, endangered species conservation, and historical preservation, and in all of these instances this technique can help secure substantial benefits that otherwise may be lost. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Jon Conrad, who made substantial contributions to this paper, and John Wolf and William Jenkins from the State of Maryland Department of Natural Resources for their cooperation. Helpful comments were also received from Greg Poe and two anonymous reviewers. All errors are the sole responsibility of the author. Financial support for this research was provided by the Cornell University’s Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cornell University Department of Applied Economic & Management. Appendix A A simple example illustrates why BLP guarantees an optimal solution while Benefit–Cost Ratio Targeting (B/CT), currently used by the United State Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program and Environmental Quality Incentives Program, does not. BLP takes into account the benefits and costs of each parcel in evaluating all of the possible portfolio combinations given a budget constraint and selects the portfolio which yields the highest possible aggregate Conservation Value. In contrast, B/CT ranks, from highest to lowest, the benefit–cost ratios of each parcel and then acquires the parcels with the highest ratios until reaching the budget constraint. B/CT’s selection algorithm is identical to BT’s selection algorithm described above except R($) denotes a rank operative over the benefit–cost ratios (Vi/Ci), iZ1,.,I. Consider a simple 10-parcel example below. The 10 parcels, lettered from A to J, are listed from highest to lowest based on their benefit–cost ratios. Note that with a budget of $2500, B/CT would select a portfolio that yields aggregate benefits of only 9.64, in contrast to the 10.48 yielded from BLP portfolio (92% of the total possible). As can be seen, B/CT first selects the four parcels (Parcel A, B, C, D) with the highest benefit– cost ratios and uses the remaining funds to select Parcel J (ranked 10th). In contrast, BLP finds a portfolio that maximizes aggregate benefits (Parcels B, C, E, F), by forgoing Parcel A (ranked 1st), Parcel D (ranked 4th), and Parcel J (ranked 10th) in exchange for the Parcel E and Parcel F (ranked 5th and 6th, Fig. A1. Efficiency difference benefit–cost targeting and binary linear programming. K.D. Messer / Journal of Environmental Management 79 (2006) 305–315 respectively). Note that in this example not only does BLP select the portfolio that maximizes aggregate benefits, but it does so while costing less money ($2450 versus $2500) and requiring the purchase of fewer parcels (4 versus 5) thereby reducing potential transaction costs. Table A1 Ten parcel example for BLP and B/CT Parcel Benefits A B C D E F G H I J 2.26 2.43 2.60 2.10 2.65 2.80 2.05 1.10 0.85 0.25 Budget $2500 Cost $450 $500 $600 $500 $650 $700 $700 $650 $900 $450 B/C 0.0050 0.0049 0.0043 0.0042 0.0041 0.0040 0.0029 0.0017 0.0009 0.0006 B–C ranking portfolio BLP portfolio Selected? Cost Benefits Selected? Cost Benefits Yes Yes Yes Yes $450 $500 $600 $500 2.26 2.43 2.60 2.10 Yes Yes $500 $600 2.43 2.60 Yes Yes $650 $700 2.65 2.80 $2450 10.48 Yes $450 0.25 Total $2500 9.64 Not only does BLP continue to guarantee optimality, but the efficiency difference between BLP and B/CT becomes greater when two or more constraints are included in the problem. For example, the number of parcels selected for acquisition can also be a constraint, especially since in the short-term labor is often fixed in conservation organizations, such as state agencies and Land Trusts. Formally, a constraint on the number of parcels selected for the optimal portfolio (S) can be P imposed such that IiZ1 Xi % S. When BLP and B/CT are analyzed using the data from the Catoctin Mountain Region, the imposition of this additional constraint reduces the aggregate benefits achieved by both B/CT and BLP. 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