INTERIM UPDATE
ERICSSON
MOBILITY
REPORT
ON THE PULSE OF THE NETWORKED SOCIETY
This document is a scheduled update to some sections of
the Ericsson Mobility Report, released in November 2012.
To view or download a copy of the original report, please visit
www.ericsson.com/ericsson-mobility-report
We will continue to share traffic and market data, along with
our analysis, on a regular basis.
subscriptions
140 million net
additions in
Q4 2012.
TRAFFIC
Data traffic grew by
28% between Q3
and Q4 2012.
February 2013
Mobile
subscriptions update
Figure 1: Mobile subscriptions
by region, Q4 2012
140
NET ADDITIONS (MILLION)
million
net additions
Q4 2012
31
31
30
15
11
9
8
2
2
276
361
531
642
713
754
680
1,120
1,260
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS (MILLlON)
Source: Ericsson (February 2013)
Figure 1
Mobile subscription figures are estimates as of Q4 2012. Mobile
net additions are estimates during Q4 2012. APAC = Asia Pacific.
The estimate of mobile net additions has been made based on
historic information from external sources and regulatory and
operator reports, combined with Ericsson analysis. Historical
data may be revised when operators report updated figures.
2 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT INTERIM UPDATE FEBRUARY 2013
Indian subscriptions have been adjusted to reflect active
subscriptions as defined by the telecom regulatory authority in India.
This better reflects real subscriber growth at a time when India’s
operators have been deleting inactive subscriptions.
All measurements are rounded up or down to the nearest million.
The sum of all rounded regional data may therefore differ slightly
from the rounded total.
>
Global mobile penetration reached 89 percent
in Q4 2012 and mobile subscriptions now total
around 6.3 billion. However, the actual number
of subscribers is around 4.4 billion, since many
people have several subscriptions.
> China alone accounted for ~22 percent of net
additions, adding around 30 million subscriptions.
> India (+11 million), Bangladesh (+9 million),
Indonesia (+8 million), and Nigeria (+5 million)
follow in terms of net additions.
> Mobile subscriptions have grown around
nine percent year-on-year and two percent
quarter-on-quarter.
> In Q4, mobile broadband subscriptions1 grew
~125 million to 1.5 billion, reflecting a
50 percent year-on-year increase.
> There is continued strong momentum for
smartphone uptake in all regions. Approximately
40 percent of all mobile phones sold during
2012 were smartphones, compared to around
30 percent for the full year 2011. Only around
15-20 percent of the worldwide installed base of
mobile phone subscriptions uses smartphones,
which means that there is considerable room for
further uptake.
> GSM/GPRS/EDGE subscriptions grew ~44 million
and WCDMA/HSPA grew ~70 million. Together
these technologies represent ~80 percent of total
net additions. LTE subscriptions grew from
14 million to 57 million.
Figure 2: Penetration percentage Q4 2012
Central & Eastern Europe 133%
Western Europe 128%
Latin America 112%
Middle East 106%
North America 103%
APAC (excluding China & India)
99%
China
82%
Africa
70%
India
56%
Global penetration
89%
Source: Ericsson (February 2013)
Mobile broadband includes handsets, tablets, mobile PCs and mobile routers for the following technologies:
HSPA, LTE, CDMA2000 EV-DO, Mobile WiMAX and TD-SCDMA
1
SUBSCRIPTIONS VS SUBSCRIBERS
There is a large difference between the number of subscriptions
and subscribers. This is due to the fact that many subscribers have
several subscriptions. Reasons for this could include users lowering
their traffic cost by using optimized subscriptions for different types
of calls, maximizing coverage, having different subscriptions for
mobile PCs/tablets and for mobile phones. In addition, it takes time
before inactive subscriptions are removed from operator databases.
Consequently, subscription penetration can easily reach above
100 percent, which is the case in many countries today. It should
however be noted that in some developing regions, it is common for
several people to share one subscription, having for example a family
or village phone.
INTERIM UPDATE FEBRUARY 2013 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 3
Mobile traffic
update
Global traffic in mobile networks
Highlights include:
>
Data traffic doubling between
Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
>
Quarterly growth of 28 percent
between Q3 2012 and Q4 2012
It should be noted that there
are big differences in traffic
levels between markets, regions
and operators.
Source: Ericsson (February 2013)
1400
1200
Total (uplink + downlink) monthly traffic (PetaBytes)
Figure 3 shows total monthly data
traffic. It depicts stable growth
with some seasonal variations.
Mobile data subscriptions will
grow strongly and drive the
increase in data traffic, along with a
continuous increase in the average
data volumes per subscription.
Figure 3: Global total data traffic in mobile networks, 2007-2012
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Q1
07
These measurements have been
performed by Ericsson over
several years using a large base
of commercial networks that
together cover all regions of the
world. They form a representative
base for calculating world total
traffic in mobile networks2.
2
Q2
07
Q3
07
Q4
07
Q1
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
x2
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
Q1
12
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
28%
Mobile Data traffic
doubled between
Q4 2011 and Q4 2012
Mobile Data traffic
growth between
Q3 2012 and Q4 2012
Traffic does not include DVB-H, Wi-Fi, or Mobile WiMax.
The contents of this document are based on a number of theoretical dependencies and assumptions and Ericsson shall not be bound by or
liable for any statement, representation, undertaking or omission made in this document. Furthermore Ericsson may at any time change the
contents of this document at its sole discretion and shall not be liable for the consequences of such changes.
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© Ericsson AB 2013