Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE):
A new research initiative
STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of
STARDEX
EXtremes for European regions:
THE EGGS
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THE EGGS | ISSUE 6 | DECEMBER 2003
3
EGU News
4
News
16
Journal Watch
17
Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE): A new
research initiative
M. Siegert on a programme to couple
geolocically-based theories of ice sheet change over 65 Ma
EDITORS
Managing Editor: Kostas Kourtidis
Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering
Demokritus University of Thrace
Vas. Sofias 12, GR-67100 Xanthi, Greece
tel. +30-25410-79383, fax. +30-25410-79379
email: [email protected]
Assistant Editor: Magdeline Pokar
Bristol Glaciology Center,
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol
University Road
Bristol, BS8 1SS, United Kingdom
tel. +44(0)117 928 8186, fax. +44(0)117 928 7878
email: [email protected]
Hydrological Sciences: Guenther Bloeschl
Institut fur Hydraulik, Gewasserkunde und Wasserwirtschaft
Technische Universitat Wien Karlsplatz 13/223,
A-1040 Wien, Austria
tel. +43-1-58801-22315, fax. +43-1-58801-22399
email: [email protected]
Biogeosciences: Jean-Pierre Gattuso
Laboratoire d’Oceanographie de Villefranche, UMR 7093 CNRSUPMC
B. P. 28, F-06234 Villefranche-sur-mer Cedex France
tel. +33-(0)493763859, fax. +33-(0)493763834
email: [email protected]
Geodesy: Susanna Zerbini
Department of Physics, Sector of Geophysics University of
Bologna, Viale Berti Pichat 8 40127 Bologna, Italy
tel. +39-051-2095019, fax +39-051-2095058
e-mail: [email protected]
Geodynamics: Bert L.A. Vermeersen
Delft University of Technology DEOS - Fac. Aerospace
Engineering Astrodynamics and Satellite Systems Kluyverweg 1,
NL-2629 HS Delft The Netherlands
tel. +31-15-2788272 fax. +31-15-2785322 8
e-mail: [email protected]
Atmospheric Sciences: Hans Xiang-Yu Huang
Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100
Copenhagen, Denmark
tel. +45-39157423, fax. +45-39157460
e-mail: [email protected]
Seismology: Marco Mucciarelli
Universita della Basilicata Di.S.G.G
Campus Macchia Romana, 85100 Potenza Italy
tel. (39) 0971-205094, fax. (39) 0971-205070
e-mail: [email protected]
Climate: Yu Shaocai
Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division (E243-01), National
Exposure Research Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency
RTP, NC 27711, USA
tel. +1-919-541-0362, fax. +1-919-541-1379
e-mail: [email protected]
Atmospheric Chemistry: Kostas Kourtidis
Department of Environmental Engineering,
School of Engineering, Demokritus University of Thrace
Vas. Sofias 12, GR-67100 Xanthi, Greece
tel. +30-25410-79383, fax. +30-25410-79379
e-mail: [email protected]
GENERAL CONTACT
For general matters please contact Kostas Kourtidis,
at: [email protected]
SUBMISSION OF MATERIAL
For material submission, please contact the Editor-in-chief or the
appropriate Section Editor.
ADVERTISING
For advertising information,
please contact: [email protected]
TECHNICAL
For technical questions, please contact: [email protected]
25
STAtistical and Regional dynamical
Downscaling of EXtremes for European
regions:STARDEX
The STARDEX co-ordinator, Clare Goodess, presents an
overview and some first project results
31
Book Reviews
37
Events
Cover photo: Recent geological and glaciological field activities in
Antarctica, illustrating the variety and spatial extent of existing and
forthcoming datasets useful to the ACE programme (see article by M. Siegert
in this issue).
© European Geosciences Union, 2003
Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated.
Where prior permission must be obtained for the reproduction or use of textual and multimedia
information (sound, images, software, etc.), such permission shall cancel the abovementioned
general permission and indicate clearly any restrictions on use.
THE EGGS
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New EGU Medal
for the Geodynamics Division
The EGU Council has decided to establish the Augustus Love Medal
as the Division Medal for Geodynamics.
At its meeting on September
19 - 21, the EGU Council has decided
to establish the Augustus Love Medal
as the Division Medal for Geodynamics.
Each year, the Augustus Love Medal
will be awarded to a distinguished
scientist in the field of geodynamics,
comprising mantle and core convention,
tectonophysics, post-glacial rebound
and earth rotation.
The establishment of the Augustus
Love Medal is the first one of an EGU
Division or Section Medal that has not
belonged previously to either the EGS
or EUG.
Professor Augustus Edward Hough
Love, F.R.S., was born in 1863 at
Weston-super-Mare, England, and
died in 1940 at Oxford, England. He
graduated from Cambridge and held the
Sedleian Chair of Natural Philosophy at
Oxford from 1899.
Augustus Love has made at least
two lasting contributions in the area of
geodynamics: the introduction of the
correct way on how to deal with prestress in solid-earth deformation, and the
particular way he treated deformation
over a broad temporal and spatial
spectrum of geodynamical subjects,
honoured by the so-called “Love
numbers”, as they are widely known
and used in post-glacial rebound, earth
rotation and solid-earth tides modeling.
Apart from this, he also discovered
one of the two types of seismic surface
waves, the so-called “Love waves”.
Love’s principle original work in
geodynamics is “Some Problems of
Geodynamics” (1911; reissued as a
Dover edition in 1967), which won the
Adams Prize at Cambridge in the same
year. Its contents lists parts on the origin
of the distribution of land and water
(Chapter I), stress in and isostasy of
continents and mountains (Chapters II
and III), on solid-earth tides (Chapters
IV - VI), and on gravitational instability
and compressibility (Chapters VII - IX).
Taking into account that his name lives
on in the post-glacial rebound, earth
rotation and solid-earth tides community
in the so-called “Love numbers”, all
three communities (Mantle and Core
Convection; Tectonophysics; and Postglacial Rebound and Earth Rotation) of
the GD Division are thus represented in
this early work on geodynamics.
During his lifetime, Love has
received many honours, including the
Royal Medal and the Sylvester Medal of
the Royal Society, the De Morgan Medal
of the London Mathematical Society,
while on the Moon his name lives on
in the Crater Love. Still, nowadays
Augustus Love’s name would likely
not be the first that one would think of
when speaking about mantle and core
convection or tectonophysics, but he
has made essential early contributions
to the underlying “Dynamics of a
Gravitating Compressible Body of
Planetary Dimensions”, as he dubs it in
the foreword to his 1911 monograph, of
these later study areas.
The first Augustus Love Medal will
be awarded at the 2005 EGU General
Assembly.
Bert Vermeersen
DEOS - Fac. Aerospace
Engineering, Delft University of
Technology, Kluyverweg 1, NL-2629
HS Delft, The Netherlands
[email protected]
1st Announcement and Young Scientists’ Support Programmes:
EGU 1st General Assembly
The first General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) will take place in Nice, France, 25-30
April 2004. Various support programmes are available for young scientists.
We hereby would like to draw your attention to the first
General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union
(EGU):
Young Scientists may apply for Student Assistance by 27
February 2004 which includes free registration and an income
of 8,- EUR per hour for assisting the congress organization.
From most European Cities one may fly to Nice for only
20,- - 30,- EUR per trip and/or share an appartment in Nice for
30,- - 50,- EUR per night.
Student registrants may purchase one full sandwich lunch
- bag per day for only 5,- EUR per bag.
Several sections of the EGU support the Young Scientists’
Outstanding Poster Paper Award programme incl. free
registration at the next General Assembly.
Finally, the publication of contributions to the EGU04
General Assembly in all EGU journals is free of charge for
authors even for the “open-access” publications.
More info can be found at
www.copernicus.org/egu2004
The COSIS Manager
EGU 1st General Assembly, Nice, France 25-30 April 2004.
The deadline for receipt of abstracts is the 11th of January,
2004 and the deadline for pre-registration is the 8th of April,
2004.
The European Geosciences Union (EGU) continues its
various support programmes for young scientists for the
EGU04 General Assembly:
Student Members are able to register for only 100,- EUR
before 31 December 2003. The Membership Rate for 2004 is
just 10,- EUR for students and retired scientists.
Young Scientists are invited to apply for a Travel Award
by 01 January 2004 which includes free registration and max.
300,- / 500,- EUR travel support.
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Berlin Declaration on Open Access to Knowledge
in the Sciences and Humanities
Last week the “Berlin Declaration on Open Access to Knowledge in the Sciences and Humanities” was
signed by several leading european research agencies and organizations.
30 October, 2003.-
There
has been a recent development of
considerable importance to EGU
journals, notably to Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Last
week (October 22) the “Berlin Declaration
on Open Access to Knowledge in the
Sciences and Humanities” was signed
by several leading German research
agencies and organizations, along with
agencies from France, Italy, Norway, etc.
It is hoped that other countries will follow
suite in time. The Declaration states
that authors and right holders should
grant to all users a free, irrevocable,
and universal right of access to their
contributions and allow their work to be
used, reproduced, or disseminated in
digital form (provided correct attribution
of authorship or copyright owner is
given). Together with supplemental
materials and the declaration of the
right of use, the complete version of
the work is to be made accessible in
at least one electronic online archive.
Such an archive can be maintained
by academic institutions and federal
or private organizations that subscribe
to the principles of open access to
and long-term archiving of publication
material. A similar stance has already
been taken by the US Public Library
of Science (PLoS), while in Britain the
Wellcome Trust is actively encouraging
publication of the research that it funds
in Open Access journals, noting that the
system of subscription journals “does
not operate in the interests of scientists
and the public, but is instead dominated
by a commercial market intent on
improving its market position”.
The publication by EGU of the
Journal ACP very much follows the
governing principals of the Berlin
Declaration. Access to full text articles
and any supplementary material is free
at all times to any interested person
upon free registration, and this is
assured by the permanent archiving
system that includes several mirror-sites
world-wide. The EGU also grants very
liberal copyright conditions, essentially
allowing any published material to be
“freely reproduced for non-commercial,
scientific purposes”.
ACP Editor-in-Chief, Dr Ulrich
Poeschl, attended the Berlin meeting,
and gave a presentation on the
principals
and
mechanisms
by
which ACP operates, including the
revolutionary two-step publication and
open review process. This was widely
praised by delegates, including those
from the commercial sector. Several
journals have expressed an interest
in adopting this transparent and openaccess process.
At EGU we believe that ACP is at the
very leading edge of this international
effort to move towards open access to
scientific research.
ANNEX: Berlin Declaration
on Open Access to
Knowledge in the Sciences
and Humanities
Preface
The Internet has fundamentally
changed the practical and economic
realities
of
distributing
scientific
knowledge and cultural heritage. For
the first time ever, the Internet now
offers the chance to constitute a global
and interactive representation of human
knowledge, including cultural heritage
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4
and the guarantee of worldwide access.
We, the undersigned, feel obliged to
address the challenges of the Internet
as an emerging functional medium for
distributing knowledge. Obviously, these
developments will be able to significantly
modify the nature of scientific publishing
as well as the existing system of quality
assurance. In accordance with the spirit
of the Declaration of the Budapest Open
Acess Initiative, the ECHO Charter
and the Bethesda Statement on Open
Access Publishing, we have drafted
the Berlin Declaration to promote the
Internet as a functional instrument for
a global scientific knowledge base
and human reflection and to specify
measures which research policy makers,
research institutions, funding agencies,
libraries, archives and museums need
to consider.
Goals
Our mission of disseminating
knowledge is only half complete if
the information is not made widely
and readily available to society. New
possibilities of knowledge dissemination
not only through the classical form
but also and increasingly through the
open access paradigm via the Internet
have to be supported. We define open
access as a comprehensive source
of human knowledge and cultural
heritage that has been approved by the
scientific community. In order to realize
the vision of a global and accessible
representation of knowledge, the future
Web has to be sustainable, interactive,
and transparent. Content and software
tools must be openly accessible and
compatible.
Definition of an Open Access
Contribution
Establishing open access as a
worthwhile procedure ideally requires
the active commitment of each and
every individual producer of scientific
knowledge and holder of cultural
heritage. Open access contributions
include original scientific research
results, raw data and metadata, source
materials, digital representations of
pictorial and graphical materials and
scholarly multimedia material.
Open access contributions must
satisfy two conditions:
1. The author(s) and right holder(s)
of such contributions grant(s) to all
users a free, irrevocable, worldwide,
right of access to, and a license to copy,
use, distribute, transmit and display the
work publicly and to make and distribute
derivative works, in any digital medium
for any responsible purpose, subject
to proper attribution of authorship
(community standards, will continue to
provide the mechanism for enforcement
of proper attribution and responsible
use of the published work, as they do
now), as well as the right to make small
numbers of printed copies for their
personal use.
2. A complete version of the work and
all supplemental materials, including a
copy of the permission as stated above,
in an appropriate standard electronic
format is deposited (and thus published)
in at least one online repository using
suitable technical standards (such
as the Open Archive definitions) that
is supported and maintained by an
academic institution, scholarly society,
government agency, or other wellestablished organization that seeks
to enable open access, unrestricted
distribution, inter operability, and longterm archiving.
Supporting the Transition to the
Electronic Open Access Paradigm
Our organizations are interested in
the further promotion of the new open
access paradigm to gain the most benefit
for science and society. Therefore, we
intend to make progress by
. encouraging our researchers/
grant recipients to publish their work
according to the principles of the open
access paradigm.
. encouraging the holders of cultural
heritage to support open access
by providing their resources on the
Internet.
. developing means and ways to
evaluate open access contributions
and online-journals in order to maintain
the standards of quality assurance and
good scientific practice.
. advocating that open access
publication be recognized in promotion
and tenure evaluation.
. advocating the intrinsic merit
of contributions to an open access
infrastructure
by
software
tool
development,
content
provision,
metadata creation, or the publication of
individual articles.
We realize that the process of
moving to open access changes the
dissemination of knowledge with
respect to legal and financial aspects.
Our organizations aim to find solutions
that support further development of the
existing legal and financial frameworks
in order to facilitate optimal use and
access.
Signatories
Ernst-Ludwig Winnacker, President
German Research Foundation
Karl Max Einhaepl, Chairman of the
Wissenschafstrat
Peter Gruss, President Max Planck
Society
Walter Kroell, President Helmholtz
Association
Further national & international
Signatories:
Bernard
Larouturou,
Director
General, Center National de la
Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Paolo Galluzzi, Director, Instituto e
Museo di Storia della Scienza Florence
Yehuda Elkana, President and
Rector, Central European University
Budapest
Martin Roth, Director General,
Staatliche Kunstsammlungen Dresden
Jose Miguel Ruano Leon, Minister of
Education Cultura y Deportes Gobierno
de Canarias
Dieter Simon, President, BerlinBrandenburg Academy of Sciences and
Humanities
Jens Braarvig, Director, Norwegian
Institute of Palaeography and Historical
Philology
Peter
Schirmbacher,
CEO
of
the
Deutsche
Initiative
fur
Netzwerkinformation
Juergen
Mittelsrab,
President,
Academia Europaea
Christian Brechot, Director General,
Institut National del la Sante et de la
Recherche Medicale (INSERM)
Jean-Claude Guedon, Open Society
Institute
Friedrich
Geisselmann,
Head,
Deutscher Bibliotheksverband
On behalf of the German research
organisations (in alphabetical order):
Hans-Joerg Bullinger, President
Fraunhofer Society
Peter Gaethgens, President HRK
Hans-Olaf Henkel, President Leibniz
Association
Bill Sturges
ACP Executive Editor
6th Framework Programme
A regular update of open and future calls available online.
At the European Commission web site, a regular update of open and future calls is now available at
http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/fp6/calls_en.cfm
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Floods: European prediction and management research
For the period 1980-2002, the greatest number of floods occurred in France (22%), Italy
(17%) and the UK (12%). The highest number of fatalities occurred in Italy (38%), followed
by Spain (20 %) and France (17%). The greatest economic losses occurred in Germany and
Italy (both €11 billion), followed by Spain and the UK (both around €6 billion).
Brussels, 13 October 2003.- Major flooding has
occurred nearly every year somewhere on Europe during the
last few decades. European Research Commissioner Philippe
Busquin visited on the 13th of October the city of Dresden
(Germany), which was hit very hard last year by one of the
worst flood catastrophes to occur in Central Europe since
the Middle Ages. During this visit, the European Commission
has organised a media briefing at Dresden’s Ständehaus to
present the results of some major research projects on floods,
looking into better ways of preventing, predicting, mitigating
and managing these catastrophes.
For the period 1980-2002, the greatest number of floods
occurred in France (22 %), Italy (17 %) and the UK (12 %).
The highest number of fatalities occurred in Italy (38 %),
followed by Spain (20 %) and France (17 %). The greatest
economic losses occurred in Germany and Italy (both €11
billion), followed by Spain and the UK (both around €6 billion).
In the last decade, the EU has launched around 50 research
projects in this field, with a total budget of €58 million, in areas
such as flood risk assessment, flood hazard and risk mapping,
flood forecasting and preventative landuse planning. The
Commission is currently developing a European Flood Alert
System (EFAS).
improved due to better calculation of flood risks. Studying the
past gives valuable hints about the present, and the future.
Integrated river basin management - The EUROTAS project
http://www.hrwallingford.co.uk/projects/EUROTAS: major
floods can not be prevented or controlled but need to be
managed across borders, based on integrated, river-basinmanagement strategies for flood prevention and mitigation.
EUROTAS was very successful in helping to mitigate the
damages of last year’s floods in the city of Prague.
The EUROTAS project responded to the second call
for proposals in the Environment and Climate programme
of the Fourth Framework research programme of the
European Commission. EUROTAS was a 3-year project
which commenced in January 1998. H.R. Wallingford was
the coordinator for the project in collaboration with 13 other
European organisations as contractors, associated contractors
or sub-contractors.
The EUROTAS project was directed at the development
and demonstration of a framework for integrated catchment
modelling; for the assessment and mitigation of flood risk and
at the development of appropriate modelling and management
procedures.
Scientific advances and new developments have been
made on a number of fronts in the final project year, including:
-enhanced algorithms and procedures for building land-use
scenarios;
-algorithms and procedures for implementing river
engineering scenarios; and
-implementation of an integrated modelling environment
and Decision Support System for flood risk assessment.
The EUROTAS project focused on meeting the needs
of river management authorities and aimed to provide real
benefit in the future mitigation of flood losses in the EU. The
involvement of river authorities in the research was a crucial
pathway to future implementation of the research advances.
The framework is not tied to any particular modelling system
but sets protocols for communication between different
modelling components. Thus, the framework enables nationally
or regionally preferred models to be incorporated in any future
practical implementation of the system and so conform to the
principle of subsidiarity.
European research to cope
with European floods
Floods are a true European problem, which cause
important social, environmental and economic losses in most
EU member states and Accession countries.
Some scientists argue that climate change is to blame,
while others claim that Europe is more exposed and vulnerable
to an increased flood risk. As in most scientific disciplines,
there are numerous interconnected and multi-dimensional
factors at play, such as weather, climate, hydrology, landuse,
structural flood-defence measures, flood-risk awareness and
preparedness, and capabilities for flood management, warning
and information.
The Commission media briefing in Dresden is presented
the research results of four European projects in the field of
flooding:
Studying past floods - The SPHERE project
EURAINSAT, European satellite rainfall analysis and
monitoring at the geostationary scale
http://www.ccma.csic.es/dpts/suelos/hidro/sphere provides
information on past floods that occurred up to 10,000 years
ago. Based on the SPHERE database, the design of high-risk
structures, such as dams, bridges and power plants, can be
THE EGGS
http://www.isac.cnr.it/~eurainsat, exploited how different
satellite data based on the most advanced technology can be
6
combined to support improved rainfall predictions, necessary
to better forecast floods. This is a European contribution to a
worldwide global initiative, the Global Precipitation Mission
(GPM).
The key objective of the project is the development of
algorithms for rapidly-updated satellite rainfall estimations at
the geostationary scale. The new channels available with the
SEVIRI radiometer in the visible (VIS) and infrared (IR) portion
of the spectrum will gain better insights into the microphysical
and dynamic structure of precipitating clouds thus allowing for
a more precise identification of precipitation levels. Microwave
(MW) radiometers on board polar orbiting satellites will be used
because of their information on the clouds vertical structure.
The method(s) will work as follows:
-Microphysical characterisation of precipitating clouds with
VIS/IR sensors;
-Creation of microphysical and radiative databases on cloud
systems using cloud model outputs and aircraft penetrations;
-Tuning of MW algorithms on the different cloud systems
(convective, stratiform,...);
-Combination of data from the different algorithms and
application to a rapid update cycle that makes use of the
different sensors at the geostationary scale.
The project consortium has two aims in mind:
-Solve a scientific problem, that is obtain more physical
and quantitative satellite rainfall estimations using the new
sensors;
-Provide a rainfall product that improves rainfall monitoring
and is ready as input to the latest generation of local area and
global circulation NWP models.
The users are to be found among the international
organisations that deal with weather analysis and forecasting,
the World Meteorological Organisation (e.g. impacts in remote
or insufficiently monitored areas, like Africa), the Food and
Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the UN (food production
monitoring especially in developing countries), satellite
exploitation organisations, weather forecasting offices at the
national and regional scale, civil protection agencies. The
European Union will clearly benefit of an additional powerful
support to the decision making authorities of its member states
and from a coverage of the whole continent every 15 minutes.
Direct impact on the monitoring of severe events in hazardous
areas is considered of fundamental importance. Algorithms will
be made available to relevant agencies as a direct output of the
project together with directions on how to use them.
optimal way, with the traditional raingauge observations; while,
on the other hand, seeking to the communication and the
dissemination of results to the authorities involved in real-time
flood forecasting and management.
For each of the above sensing technologies the project will
develop improved precipitation estimation algorithms, assess
their uncertainty and use an innovative combination of the
output data of the three independent data sources to provide
a more reliable short term flood forecasting system together
with a measure of its uncertainty. The system will considerably
improve the flash flood forecasting reliability and precision and
will shorten the time required to detect events which lead to
catastrophic flood events. The system is applicable to small
as well as to medium size catchment areas and can be used
for very short term (1 to 6 hours) forecasting systems and,
in combination with a Local Area Meteorological Model, for
medium term ( up to 2 days) forecasting systems.
Once the credibility of the new techniques has been
assessed and demonstrated to the authorities involved in
Civil Protection, the benefits to be gained rely mainly in the
possibility of their extensive use for improving flood warning
and flood control management operations which will reduce the
risk of flooding as well as the potential flood damages.
Scientific objectives and approach: The basic role of any
real-time quantitative precipitation and flood forecasting system
lies in its capability, within the forecasting horizon, of assessing
and reducing the uncertainty in forecasts of future events in
order to allow improved warnings and operational decisions
for the reduction of flood risk. In line with this requirement,
the MUSIC project is to develop an innovative technique for
improving the weather radar, weather satellite and rain gauge
derived precipitation data, taken as independent measurement
sources, and to use the resulting product in an integrated
prototype flood forecasting system.
In broad outline the work consists of developing a number
of guided procedures and tools for combining in an objective
and optimal way different sources of precipitation estimates
in order to reduce the final product bias and uncertainty and
to make the resulting precipitation estimates available for the
analysis of areas at risk from flooding as well as inputs to realtime flood forecasting systems.
Three basic independent sources of precipitation estimates
will be used: rain-gauges, meteorological radar and satellite
images. Each estimate is affected by biases and by errors of
different sources and nature. Given the independent nature of
the sources of errors, the technique based upon the conjunctive
use of block Kriging and of the Bayesian combination, recently
developed at the University of Bologna, will allow for the
substantial elimination of the bias and the reduction of the
variance of the estimation errors, thus increasing the reliability
of the precipitation estimates.
MUSIC, Multi-Sensor Precipitation Measurements Integration,
Calibration and Flood Forecasting
http://www.geomin.unibo.it/orgv/hydro/music
The MUSIC project aims, on the one hand, at improving
the reliability of the rainfall estimation techniques based on
radar and Meteosat, by combining them, in an objective and
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7
Mars Express update
Mars Express probe is scheduled to arrive at Mars at Christmas: the Beagle 2 lander is expected to touch
down on the surface of the Red Planet on the night of 24 to 25 December.
6 November 2003.- Launched
on 2 June 2003 from Baikonur
(Kazakhstan) on board a Russian
Soyuz launcher operated by Starsem,
the European probe – built for ESA by a
European team of industrial companies
its geology.
In particular, the British-made Beagle
2 lander, named after the ship on which
Charles Darwin explored uncharted
areas of the Earth in 1830, will contribute
to the search for traces of life on Mars
Artist’s impression of Beagle 2 on the Martian surface (copyright: ESA)
led by Astrium – carries seven scientific
instruments that will perform a series of
remote-sensing experiments designed
to shed new light on the Martian
atmosphere, the planet’s structure and
through exobiology experiments and
geochemistry research.
On Christmas Eve the Mars Express
orbiter will be steered on a course taking
it into an elliptical orbit, where it will
safely circle the planet for a minimum
of almost 2 Earth years. The Beagle 2
lander - which will have been released
from the mother craft a few days earlier
(on 19 December) – instead will stay on
a collision course with the planet. It too
should also be safe, being designed
for atmospheric entry and geared for a
final soft landing due to a sophisticated
system of parachutes and airbags.
On arrival, the Mars Express mission
control team will report on the outcome
of the spacecraft’s delicate orbital
insertion manoeuvre. It will take some
time for Mars Express to manoeuvre into
position to pick communications from
Beagle 2. Hence, initially, other means
will be used to check that Beagle 2 has
landed: first signals from the Beagle 2
landing are expected to be available
throughout Christmas Day, either
through pick-up and relay of Beagle 2
radio signals by NASA’s Mars Odyssey,
or by direct pick-up by the Jodrell Bank
radio telescope in the UK. Mars Express
will then pass over Beagle 2 in early
January 2004, relaying data and images
back to Earth. The first images from the
cameras of Beagle 2 and Mars Express
are expected to be available between
the end of the year and the beginning of
January 2004.
ESA Media Relations
PR 74-2003
ESF News: EURYI Call for proposals European Young Investigator Awards
The aim of EURYI Awards will be to enable and encourage outstanding young researchers from all
over the world, to work in a European environment for the benefit of the development of European
science and the building up of the next generation of leading European researchers.
The
European
Union
Research
Organisations Heads of Research Councils
Awards . The aim of EURYI Awards will be to enable and
encourage outstanding young researchers from all over the
world, to work in a European environment for the benefit of the
development of European science and the building up of the
next generation of leading European researchers.
(EuroHORCS), wishing to contribute to the building of the
European Research Area decided to co-ordinate some of their
activities in creating the European Young Investigator (EURYI)
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8
European and national institutions offer various awards in
a new spirit which is clearly quality and autonomy driven, also
financially rewarded according to merit. With EURYI scheme,
Europe can provide favorable conditions in the best scientific
and cultural environment in the world.
Its specificity is that it is both European and directly
organised by the scientific community itself through its
research institutions. The selection process is double: the
first step is performed by the member organisations of the
host country, and the second step organised by the European
Science Foundation (ESF) is done by European panels. The
true European spirit of this initiative is also asserted by a
common funding by the EUROHORCS member participating
organisations with no rule of juste retour.
15 countries participate to the scheme: Austria, Belgium,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary,
Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland,
and the United Kingdom.
25 awards of an amount up to 250k€/year, will be offered
for as long as five year projects in a European laboratory in any
discipline of science, including humanities. The awardees will
create their own team, manage it themselves in a European
research center of their choice (international laboratories such
as EMBL, or CERN are not eligible hosts laboratories). The
quality of the project as well as the host center will be taken
into account; neither nationality, nor age will. However these
awards are meant to attract young scientists and the only rule
will be that they should be between 2 and 10 years after the
PhD.
EURYI call for proposal is being launched on the 15th
of September, the dead line for the application will be the
15th of December 2003. The first selected projects will be
implemented in October 2004.
Deadline for receipt of applications is the 15th of December,
2003.
The call and application form can be downloaded from
http://www.esf.org/medias/section_5/83/CfPFinalVersion2
0031109.pdf
ESF
EU-China cooperation on GALILEO Satellite Navigation
The new GALILEO Satellite Navigation Co-operation Agreement was on the agenda at the sixth summit
meeting between China and the European Union on 30 October 2003 in Beijing.
30 October 2003.- Chinese
President Hu Jintao met European
leaders, including current European
Council President Silvio Berlusconi,
European
Commission
President
Romano Prodi and High Representative
for the EU Common Foreign and
Security Policy Javier Solana at the EUChina Summit. As we read in the joint
press statement, leaders at the summit
briefed each other on developments in
their respective regions and exchanged
views on China-EU relations, specifically
welcoming the signing of the GALILEO
agreement.
Considered a significant milestone
in expanding EU-China relations, the
signing of the agreement opens the
way to the participation of China in this
strategic programme.
GALILEO aims to equip Europe
with a worldwide system for satellite
radionavigation and positioning. At
present, only the United States and
Russia have satellite radionavigation
systems with global coverage. For
the EU, bringing China into GALILEO
means securing a huge potential market.
Once operational, the GALILEO system
will be managed privately as a purely
commercial venture. A China equipped
to GALILEO standards could, therefore,
become an important economic partner
for Europe.
In this context, the European
Commission, the European Space
Agency and the Chinese Ministry of
Science and Technology have decided
to establish a training, cooperation and
information centre for satellite navigation
in China. On the basis of bilateral
discussions in the Europe-China Joint
Technical Working Group, the decision
has been taken to locate the centre at
the renowned Beijing University. The
centre was inaugurated on Friday, 19
September, 2003.
The Galileo system will be built
around 30 satellites (27 operational
and three in reserve) stationed on
three circular medium-Earth orbits at an
altitude of 23,616 km and inclined at 56°
to the equator. This configuration will
provide coverage of the entire planet.
Two Galileo centres will be set up in
Europe to control satellite operations
and manage the navigation system.
Developed by ESA and the European
Union on the basis of 50-50 cofinancing,
Galileo will be a complete civil system,
due to be operational from 2008.
THE EGGS
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The two sides also expressed
satisfaction with progress in SinoEuropean scientific and technological
co-operation and its expansion under
the EU’s Sixth Framework Programme
for Research and Technological
Development (FP6). Under FP6,
Chinese research partners can, for the
first time, participate in EU projects in all
areas of scientific research, thanks to
the EU-China Science and Technology
Agreement.
Probable loss of Midori-II
A sad day for the global ocean colour community: A statement from the Japanese Aerospace Exploration
Agency (JAXA) has just been released announcing the probable loss of Midori-II (carrying both the GLI and
POLDER-II ocean colour sensors).
October 31, 2003.- An official
statement from JAXA announced the
probable loss of Midori-II:
“The Japan Aerospace Exploration
Agency (JAXA) has been investigating
the possibility of recovering the
observations of Midori-II after an
anomaly was detected in the satellite
on October 25 (Saturday), 2003. JAXA
has been continually trying to send
the satellite commands to restore
its functions, and analyze its current
status.
However, as a result of our
investigation, analysis, and inability to
re-establish any communications with
the satellite, JAXA found today that the
possibility of restoring the operations of
Midori-II is extremely slim.
JAXA will continue to do its utmost
to send commands and investigate the
condition of the satellite to clarify the
cause of the anomaly and to prevent
a recurrence of the problem for future
satellite programs.
JAXA will also do its best to provide
users of Midori-II with as much acquired
data during its nine-month operation
period in order to maximize their use.
In addition, we will examine
future earth observation activity plans
by consulting with the Ministry of
Education, Culture, Sports, Science
and Technology, the Space Activities
Commission,
and
other
parties
concerned, taking into consideration
the importance of earth observations
to solve global environmental issues as
highlighted during the Earth Observation
Summit.
JAXA would like to express our
sincere apologies to all Japanese
citizens, Midori-II users, and parties
concerned, including the Ministry of
Environment, NASA (the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration)
and CNES (Center National d’Etudes
Spatiales),
whose
observation
equipment is onboard Midori-II.”
Reference URL:
http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2003/10/
20031031_midori2_e.html
Press Release 2003/10
Japan Aerospace Exploration
Agency
Dobson Award for young scientists
The “Dobson Award for Young Scientists” is granted for one or more outstanding research paper(s)
in atmospheric sciences published or accepted in a refereed journal since the last Quadrennial Ozone
Symposium (July 2000) by a young scientist (within 10 years of Ph.D).
The “Dobson Award for Young Scientists”
The Award consists of a certificate accompanied by a prize
defined by the Local Organizing Committee at the beginning of
each Quadrennial Ozone Symposium.
The deadline for submission of proposed papers
accompanied with their endorsement letters is the 31/12/2003.
The Awards will be presented at the next Quadrennial Ozone
Symposium (QOS) in June 2004. Selection of successful
papers will be made by the Award Committee which consists
of seven IOC members. The assessors will judge and rank
the papers submitted for the Award, according to the following
criteria:
· Innovation
· Impact
Related information can be found at:
http://ioc.atmos.uiuc.edu and www.QOS2004.gr
is granted for one or more outstanding research paper(s) in
atmospheric sciences published or accepted in a refereed
journal since the last Quadrennial Ozone Symposium (July
2000) by a young scientist (within 10 years of Ph.D). The
person nominated for the Award should be the first author of
the cited paper.
Complete nomination packages (an electronic copy
of the paper in pdf format, a brief curriculum vitae of the
candidate, and two endorsement letters describing the
impact and innovation of the paper) should be e-mailed to:
[email protected]. Incomplete or unreadable electronic
files cannot be considered, although we will make every
effort to e-mail the nominator to obtain a legible nomination
package. Self nominations will not be considered. Papers that
have previously won the Dobson Award for Young Scientists
are not eligible. The Award Committee may decide not to give
the Award, if none of the papers submitted is of a sufficient high
scientific standard.
THE EGGS
International Association of Meteorology and
Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) and
International Ozone Commission (IOC)
10
Negotiations for a framework agreement for structured
cooperation between EU and ESA
Negotiations on a framework agreement for structured cooperation between ESA and the European
Community have been concluded. Today the ESA Council adopted the agreement, which had already been
endorsed by the EU Council on 20 October.
November 12, 2003.- Negotiations on a framework
agreement for structured cooperation between ESA and the
European Community have been concluded. On November
12th, 2003, the ESA Council adopted the agreement, which
had already been endorsed by the EU Council on 20 October.
The origins of the agreement date from November 2001,
when the ministers in charge of space activities gave ESA clear
directions on the Agency’s evolution and policy. The ESA/EC
agreement gives recognition to both parties, emphasising that
they have specific complementary and mutually reinforcing
strengths, and commits them to working together while
avoiding unnecessary duplication of effort.
The framework agreement has two main aims. The first
is the coherent and progressive development of an overall
European Space Policy, which will specifically seek to link
demand for services and applications using space systems
in support of EU policies with the supply through ESA of
space systems and infrastructures necessary to meet that
demand. The second aim of the agreement is to establish a
common basis and appropriate practical arrangements for
efficient and mutually beneficial cooperation between ESA
and the European Union, fully respecting the institutional and
operational frameworks of each.
The agreement also opens up new possibilities for
cooperation, such as EU participation in ESA optional
programmes, or ESA management of EU space-related
activities.
On November 11th, 2003, the European Commission
adopted its White Paper on space, drafted with the support of
ESA. It presents an action plan for implementing an enlarged
European space policy, including proposals for joint ESA-EU
space programmes that will take the framework agreement as
their basis.
On November 26th, 2003, the European Space Agency
(ESA) and the Austrian Space Agency (ASA), on behalf of the
Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology (BMVIT) of
the Federal Republic of Austria, founded the European Space
Policy Institute (ESPI) in Vienna.
The Institute will identify and develop research themes
relevant to European space policy, which will be used to
initiate, support and promote political and societal debate to
raise the public awareness of the importance of space-based
infrastructures and services.
The European Space Policy Institute will create a virtual
network of think tanks that will federate their know-how
and skills in order to conduct comprehensive space policy
research. The ESPI will be located in Vienna and legally
represented by a Secretary General. Any national space
administration, intergovernmental research organisation,
university, institute or
other national or international,
governmental or non-governmental entity or any other natural
or legal person with a particular interest in taking part in ESPI
activities may become a member of the Institute. For further
information, you could contact Andrea Vena, ESA, Directorate
of Strategy and External Relations (Tel: + 33(0)1.53.69.7375,
Fax: +33(0)1.53.69.7750) or Michel A. Jakob, ESPI Contact
Point, Austrian Space Agency (Tel. + 43(0)1.403.81. 7726,
Fax. + 43(0)1.405. 8228).
ESA Media relations
Press Releases N° 76-2003, 80-2003
Largest Arctic Ice Shelf Breaks Up,
Draining Freshwater Lake
The largest ice shelf in the Arctic has broken, and scientists who have studied it closely say it is evidence of
ongoing and accelerated climate change in the north polar region.
22 September 2003.-The
Ward Hunt Ice Shelf is located on
the north coast of Ellesmere Island
in Canada’s Nunavut territory and its
northernmost national park. This ancient
feature of thick ice floating on the sea
began forming some 4,500 years ago
and has been in place for at least 3,000
years. Warwick Vincent and Derek
Mueller of Laval University in Quebec
City, Quebec, and Martin Jeffries of the
University of Alaska Fairbanks have
studied the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf on
site and through RADARSAT imagery
and helicopter overflights. They report
in Geophysical Research Letters that a
three decade long decline in the Ward
Hunt Ice Shelf culminated in its sudden
THE EGGS
11
break-up between 2000 and 2002. It
fragmented into two main parts with
many additional fissures. It also calved
a number of ice islands, some of which
are large enough to pose a danger to
shipping and to drilling platforms in the
Beaufort Sea.
An immediate consequence of the
ice shelf’s rupture was the loss of almost
all of the freshwater from the northern
hemisphere’s largest epishelf lake,
which had been dammed behind it in 30
kilometer [20 mile] long Disraeli Fiord.
An epishelf lake is a body of mostly
freshwater trapped behind an ice shelf.
The freshwater layer in the Disraeli
Fiord measured 43 meters in depth and
lay atop 360 meters of denser ocean
water. The loss of fresh and brackish
water has affected a previously reported
unique biological community, consisting
of both freshwater and marine species
of plankton. The breakup of the ice
shelf has also reduced the habitat
available for cold-tolerant communities
of microscopic animals and algae that
live on the upper ice surface.
A century ago, the entire northern
coast of Ellesmere Island, the
northernmost land mass of North
America, was fringed with a continuous
ice shelf, as explorer Robert E. Peary
reported in 1907. About 90 percent of
the ice area had been lost, through
calving from its northern edge, by
1982, the authors say. Since then, the
remnant ice shelves, including Ward
Hunt, had remained relatively stable
until April 2000, when RADARSAT’s
synthetic aperture radar revealed the
first sign of cracking. Subsequent
imagery showed the crack extending
in length, and in 2002, observations
from a helicopter showed that the
fracture now extended fully from the
fiord to the open ocean, breaking the
ice shelf into two major parts and many
smaller ones. In July and August 2002,
Vincent’s team landed on the Ward Hunt
Ice Shelf to make direct measurements
of its break-up. They found cracks that
separated the central part of the shelf
into free floating ice blocks. These
were held in place by parts of the ice
shelf that remained intact. Then, in
August 2002, the northern edge of the
ice shelf calved, resulting in the loss of
six square kilometers of ice islands and
20 square kilometers of thick multi-year
sea ice attached to the ice shelf. The
remaining ice shelf may only be about
half the thickness previously reported,
the researchers say.
The scientists note that in the West
Antarctic, atmospheric warming has
been cited as the cause for ice shelf
collapses. There, temperatures have
risen by about one-half of a degree
C per decade over the past 60 years.
On northern Ellesmere Island, the
longest temperature records have been
maintained at Alert, 175 kilometers
to the east of Disraeli Fiord. At Alert,
a temperature increase of just onetenth of a degree C per decade has
been observed since 1951. But during
the period 1967 to the present, the
temperature increase has been about
four times that rate, about equal to that
of Antarctica. The actual temperature
on the ice shelf was measured in 2001
and 2002 and correlated with the Alert
data, in order to project backwards the
ice shelf temperature. This yielded an
average July surface temperature of
1.3 deg C for the years 1967-2002,
which is well above the 0 deg C that is
considered the critical threshold for ice
shelf breakup in Antarctica, according
to the researchers. Mueller, Vincent,
and Jeffries attribute the disintegration
of the Ellesmere Ice Shelf and the
breakup of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf
to the cumulative effects of long-term
warming since the 19th century. The
precise timing and pattern of fracturing
of the climate-weakened ice shelf may
have been influenced by freeze- thaw
cycles, wind, and tides, they say. Other
factors may include changes in Arctic
Ocean temperature, salinity, and flow
patterns.
The research was supported
by Canada’s Natural Sciences and
Engineering Research Council; Polar
Continental Shelf Project, Parks
Canada; NASA; and the Geophysical
Institute and Alaska Satellite Facility,
University of Alaska Fairbanks. Derek
R. Mueller and Warwick F. Vincent are
at Centre d’Etudes Nordiques [Center
for Northern Studies], Laval University,
Quebec City, Quebec, Canada, and
O. Jeffries is at Geophysical Institute,
University
of
Alaska
Fairbanks,
Fairbanks, Alaska.
Ref.: Derek R. Mueller; Vincent,
Warwick F.; and Jeffries, Martin O.,
Break-up of the largest Arctic ice shelf
and associated loss of an epishelf lake,
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30,
No. [TBD], [CITATION NO. TBD], doi:
10.1029/2003GL017931, 2003 [Note:
Publication date not yet determined.]
American Geophysical Union
Laval University
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Joint Release
Climate forecasts for Russia in the 21st century
The possible climate change in Russia in the current century was presented by researchers of the
Voyeykov Main Geophysical Observatory and the Obukhov Institute of Aerophysics, Russian Academy
of Sciences, at the World Conference on Climate Changes that took place in Moscow.
17 October 2003.- Climate change predictions in
Russia in the 21st century were presented by researchers of
the Voyeykov Main Geophysical Observatory and the Obukhov
Institute of Aerophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, at the
World Conference on Climate Changes that took place in
Moscow. Their forecast is based on estimations with seven
global circulation models. They predict that winters will get
warmer in Russia: in Siberia and in the North-East of the
European part, winter precipitations will increase, Siberian and
northern rivers will become more full-flowing, and southern
rivers drier, permafrost will significantly thaw, and Arctic seas
will be free of ice during the summertime.
THE EGGS
The researchers divided the territory of Russia into seven
regions corresponding to the drainage basins of major rivers.
The above regions were examined in terms of future changes.
The researchers have found that against a background of
general warming the highest temperature rise will occur in
Siberia and in the North-East of the European part of Russia,
particularly in winter. More precipitation will fall in winter. The
highest increase in precipitation is expected for the river basins
in the North-East of Europe: the Pechora, Northern Dvina, and
in Siberia: the Ob, Yenisei and Lena. Precipitation will also
increase in the drainage basin of Don, Dnieper, Volga and
Ural, although not significantly.
12
In the European part of Russia precipitation falls in winter not
only in the form of snow but also in the form of rain. Therefore,
increased precipitation in winter will cause decrease of snow
mass accumulated by the beginning of spring. As a result, the
probability of large spring floods will diminish. In the basins of
Siberian rivers, increased winter precipitation, i.e. snowfall, will
entail additional accumulation of snow mass. The result will be
the opposite: the snow will thaw in spring more intensely, thus
causing severe floods.
The researchers also forecasted changes in the hydrological
regime of rivers in the 21st century. Rivers of the North-East
of Europe and Siberia will become more full-flowing, drainage
of the Volga and Ural will increase insignificantly, and that of
southern rivers will essentially decrease.
Approximately 60% of the area of Russia is covered by
permafrost, the top layer of which thaws by the end of summer
by 10-20 centimeters in the North and by up to 2 meters at
the Southern border. The researchers have calculated that
the depth of thawing may increase from 60 centimeters to 1
meter.
Regarding the future of the Arctic Ocean, there is a
significant difference of opinions among the developers of
different climatic models. Although all of them acknowledge
that the sea ice area in the summertime will strongly decrease,
some believe that the area of sea water in the Russian Arctic
may get completely free from ice.
The results were presented by V.P. Meleshko, V.A.
Govorkova (from Voyeykov Main Geophysical Observatory,
Rosgidromet-Russian Hydremeteorological Service, St.
Petersburg), G.S. Golitsyn and P.F. Demchenko (from
Obukhov Institute of Aerophysics, Moscow).
The DFG Funds a New Research Vessel
The Joint Committee of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) has
decided to fund the R/V Maria Sibylla Merian as a new “Central Research Facility”. The new ship, which is
still under construction, will be capable of navigating the margins of the ice cap.
28 October 2003.- The
Joint Committee of the Deutsche
Forschungsgemeinschaft
(DFG,
German Research Foundation) has
decided to fund the research vessel
Maria Sibylla Merian as a new “Central
Research Facility”. The new ship,
which is still under construction, will be
capable of navigating the margins of
the ice cap. It will replace two research
vessels which have already been taken
out of service as well as the Alexander
von Humboldt, which will be taken out
of service at the end of 2004. The Maria
S. Merian is classed as a medium-sized
research vessel and will be primarily
deployed at the margins of the ice cap
in the northern seas, a key region for
research into current issues relating to
the “ocean-climate” system. In addition
to the Meteor, the Maria S. Merian
is the second research vessel to be
funded by the DFG under the funding
instrument “Central Research Facilities”
in conjunction with the Federal Ministry
of Education and Research (BMBF).
With its funding of research vessels
as Central Research Facilities, the DFG
ensures fair distribution of “ship time”
according to the criteria of scientific
performance. As with the Meteor, the
new ship will be available to all German
oceanographers and their international
partners
according
to
generally
accepted rules. In its 1999 white paper
“Oceanography in the Next Decade”,
the DFG’s Senate Commission on
Oceanography pointed out the need
to update the medium-sized German
research fleet, which in its opinion no
longer meets the changed requirements
of modern oceanography. In doing so,
the commission gave an impetus for
the decision by the federal and state
working group on “German Research
Vessels” (BLAG) to build a new ship
capable of navigating the margins of
the ice cap.
Construction of the vessel is
being jointly funded by the BMBF
THE EGGS
13
and the states of Bremen, Hamburg,
Mecklenburg-Western
Pomerania,
and Schleswig-Holstein, and will cost
approximately €55 million. The vessel,
owned by the state of MecklenburgWestern Pomerania, will be based
at the Baltic Sea Research Institute
Warnemünde. The ship will be operated
by an operating consortium, which is yet
to be founded. The establishment of this
consortium, to which the usage rights for
all medium-sized research vessels shall
eventually be transferred, has been on
the agenda of BLAG for a number of
years. In order to facilitate the operation
and usage of the Maria S. Merian until
the operating consortium is established,
the vessel will be supported according
to the funding model used for the
Meteor, with 70 percent of the funding
provided by the DFG and 30 percent by
the BMBF.
DFG Press Release Nr. 50
WMO Professor Mariolopoulos Trust Fund Award
The “WMO Professor Mariolopoulos Trust Fund Award”, established by its board of Directors under the
auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the UN, is biennial, granted every two years and
accompanied by a prize of US$ 2,000 and a certificate.
November 10, 2003.- The “Mariolopoulos-Kanaginis
Foundation for the Environmental Sciences” is a non-profit
non-governmental Organization aiming at promoting and
awarding atmospheric environmental research. The “WMO
Professor Mariolopoulos Trust Fund Award”, established
by its board of Directors under the auspices of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the UN, is biennial,
granted every two years and accompanied by a prize of US$
2,000 and a certificate.
The Award for 2002 was presented at a ceremony held
on May 30, 2002 at the University of Athens. The prize was
awarded to Francois Gheusi for his paper with J. Stein entitled
“Lagrangian description of airflows using Eulerian passive
tracers” and to Boyan Iliev Tatatov for his paper with I. Kolev
entitled “Experimental determination of the multiple-scattering
effect on the lidar-signal polarization characteristics during
liquid-and solid-phase precipitation”. The Secretary-General of
WMO, Professor G.O.P. Obasi presented the awards.
The “WMO Professor Mariolopoulos Trust Fund Award”
is granted for an outstanding research paper in atmospheric
sciences published or accepted during the last two years in
a refereed journal by a young scientist (age below 35 years
by the date of publication). Nominations could be made by
the National Committees of the International Association
of Meteorological and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS),
IAMAS Commissions and/or by the Directors of the National
Meteorological Services. The nominations and the papers must
be submitted in one of the official WMO languages (English,
French, Spanish, Russian). Non-English papers should be
accompanied by a translation of the paper in English. Three
reprints of the paper should be submitted together with the
nomination letter to:
submitted is of a sufficient high scientific standard.The award
will normally be presented to the awardee at an appropriate
scientific meeting / Ceremony by the Secretary-General of
WMO or a representative of WMO or the Foundation and can
be shared between co-authors, provided the previous criteria
are met by the lead author.
More details could be found on the address:
http://lap.physics.auth.gr/mkf/
Extract of paragraphs 7.2.6 and 7.2.7 and Annex VI from
the final Report of the 47th session of the Executive Council of
WMO, Geneva, 1996
Professor Mariolopoulos Trust Fund Award
7.2.6 The Council noted with appreciation the proposal
to establish a Trust Fund to commemorate the distinguished
contributions of the late Professor Mariolopoulos to modern
meteorology and climatology particularly in Greece, his native
country. Beginning in 1996, the Trust Fund would provide
every second year an award to stimulate research and
understanding of the atmospheric environment. It was agreed
that for this Trust Fund, the Secretary-General representing
WMO would make the decisions concerning the evaluation
of candidates and the utilization of financial resources (see
Annex VI) in collaboration with the Mariolopoulos - Kanaginis
Foundation (MKF).
Future Awards
7.2.7 The Council, whilst supportive of the commemorative
awards and the research efforts which they recognized, noted
that the selection process consumed an increasing amount
of its time. It therefore decided that future awards approved
by the Council should be completely self-supporting and
the selection process conducted outside the session of the
Executive Council.
Prof. Christos S. Zerefos
Att. “WMO Professor Mariolopoulos Trust Fund
Award”
Laboratory
of
Climatology
and Atmospheric
Environment
Faculty of Geology, University of Athens
15784 Athens, Greece
ANNEX VI
Annex to paragraph 7.2.6. of the general summary
A brief curriculum vitae of the nominee should accompany
all nominations. Papers that have previously won prize are
not eligible. Deadline for submission is March 31, 2004.
The method of selection includes the establishment of a
Reviewing Committee comprised of distinguished scientists
in the field of atmospheric sciences. The Committee members
will be designated by the Secretary- General of WMO, by the
Directorate General of Research of the European Union and
by the Board of Directors of the Foundation. The Foundation
may decide not to give the award, if none of the papers
THE EGGS
Agreement on the Establishment of the Professor
Mariolopoulos Trust Fund Award
WHEREAS
(1) The Mariolopoulos - Kanaginis Foundation (MKF)
wishes to commemorate the distinguished contributions of the
late Professor Mariolopoulos to meteorology by establishing
the Professor Mariolopoulos Trust Fund Award in atmospheric
14
environment.
(2) The World Meteorological Organization is prepared to
administer such a fund;
accumulated) in the form of an award to an individual, either
for a distinguished contribution in the field of Atmospheric
Environmental Sciences and / or for an original scientific paper
in the field;
(b) The awards are intended to stimulate interest in research
and the understanding of the atmospheric environment;
(c) The awards shall be made by decision of a committee
of three distinguished scientists; one designated by the WMO
Secretary-General; another designated by the DirectorGeneral for Science Research and Development of the
European Union and the third, to be designated by the Board
of Directors of MKF;
(d) The award will consist of a medal and a sum of US
$2,000;
This Trust Fund will be established for a duration of twenty
years, to be considered thereafter in a manner compatible with
its initial purpose.
IT IS AGREED by the Mariolopoulos - Kanaginis
Foundation (MKF), on the hand, and the World Meteorological
Organization, represented by its Secretary-General, on the
other that:
1. Upon receipt from the Mariolopoulos - Kanaginis
Foundation (MKF) of the sum of US $15,000 to be deposited
to WMO in 1995, the Secretary-General will establish the
Professor Mariolopoulos Trust Fund. This is done on the
understanding that a similar amount will be deposited by May
1996 in addition to US $2,000 to grant the initial award in June
1996;
2. The US $30,000 Fund shall be invested by the SecretaryGeneral and the interests derived there from shall be used in
the prescribed manner for the following purposes:
(a) Financial grants shall be made every second year
beginning in 1996 (provided that sufficient interest has
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MARIOLOPOULOS – KANAGINIS FOUNDATION FOR
THE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
15
NAT, NAD and Ultrathin Tropical Tropopause Clouds
One paper and two commentaries on one of the major scientific issues in current research on polar
stratospheric clouds (PSCs), plus two papers on UTTCs.
The following set of cross-linked papers/comments in ACP (Atmospheric
Chemistry and Physics) and their interactive discussion, highlight one of the major
scientific issues in current research on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs):
A paper by Knopf D.A. et al.: Homogeneous nucleation of NAD and NAT in liquid
stratospheric aerosols: insufficient to explain denitrification
http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/acp/acp/2/207/acp-2-207.pdf and two comments,
by Kay J.E. et al.
http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/acp/acp/3/1439/acp-3-1439.pdf and A. Tabazadeh
http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/acp/acp/3/863/acp-3-863.pdf
Further, a two-part paper also covers another hot topic, namely ultrathin tropical
tropopause clouds:
Peter Th., et al.: Ultrathin Tropical Tropopause Clouds (UTTCs): I. Cloud morphology
and occurence
Recently discovered in the western Indian ocean with optical depths around 10^-4,
UTTCs belong to the optically and geometrically thinnest large-scale clous in the Earth’s
atmosphere, may exist for many hours as an only 200-300 m thick cloud layer just a few
hundred meters below the tropical cold point tropopause and cover up to 10^5 km^2.
http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/acp/acp/3/1083/acp-3-1083.pdf.
Luo B.P. et al.: Ultrathin Tropical Tropopause Clouds (UTTCs): II. Stabilisation
mechanisms
In their condensed phase UTCCs contain only about 1-5% of the total water and
essentially no nitric acid. A new cloud stabilisation mechanism is required to explain
this small fraction of the contensed water content in the clouds and their small vertical
thickness. This work suggests a mechanism, which forces the particles into a thin layer,
based on upwelling of air of some mm/s to balance the ice particles, supersaturation
with respect to ice above and subsaturation below the UTCC
http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/acp/acp/3/1093/acp-3-1093.pdf.
All the above papers can be viewed free of charge from the Atmospheric Chemistry
and Physics journal website.
THE EGGS
16
Antarctic Climate
Evolution (ACE): A new
research initiative
M. Siegert on a programme to couple
geolocically-based theories of ice sheet change over 65 Ma
Central to the understanding of global environmental change is an appreciation of how the Antarctic ice
sheet interacts with climate. To comprehend the processes involved one must look into the geological
record for evidence of past changes. For several decades international efforts have been made to determine
the glacial and climate history of Antarctica and the southern oceans. Sediment cores from the sea floor
have been extracted on board ships and over the floating perennial ice that borders the ice sheets. In
addition there have been numerous terrestrial geological expeditions to the mountains exposed above
the ice surface usually close to the margin of the ice sheet. Holistic interpretation of these data is now
being made, and hypotheses on the size and timing of past changes in Antarctica are being developed.
To test these hypotheses, numerical models of ice, ocean and climate are required. It is the purpose of a
new initiative, called Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE), funded for a preliminary 2 years by the Scientific
Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) to build a programme of research to formally couple geologicallybased theories concerning ice sheet change over the last 65 million years.
large ice masses and associated sea ice to climatic forcing
is of vital importance, because ice-volume variations lead to
(1) changing global sea levels on a scale of tens of metres or
more, and (2) alteration to the capacity of ice sheets and sea
ice as major heat sinks/insulators. It is thus important to assess
the stability of the cryosphere under a warming climate (IPCC,
2001), particularly as ice-core records have yielded evidence
of a strong correlation between CO2 in the atmosphere and
palaeotemperatures (Figure 2). This concern is justified when
CO2 levels are compared with those of the past.
Since Antarctica is a major driver of Earth\’s climate
and sea level, much effort has been expended in deriving
models of its behaviour. Some of these models have been
successfully evaluated against modern conditions. Modelling
the past record of ice-sheet behaviour in response to changes
1. Introduction
Antarctic Climate Evolution (ACE) is a new, international
research initiative to study the climate and glacial history of
Antarctica through palaeoclimate and ice-sheet modelling
investigations, purposefully integrated with terrestrial and
marine geological and geophysical evidence for past
changes (Figure 1). The Antarctic ice sheet has existed
for approximately 35 million years, but it has fluctuated
considerably and has been one of the major driving forces
for changes in global sea level and climate throughout the
Cainozoic Era. The spatial scale and temporal pattern of these
fluctuations has been the subject of considerable debate.
Determination of the scale and rapidity of the response of
THE EGGS
17
conditions. As yet, there has been no
concerted effort to employ such models to
determine the Cainozoic climate evolution
of Antarctica. The ACE programme
will build on the achievements of
ANTOSTRAT by focusing on linking
palaeoenvironmental
records,
from
current and future drilling and coring, with
new ocean-ice sheet-climate modelling
efforts in order to provide both constraints
and tests for this new generation of
models. The science plan proposed will
necessarily depend on outcomes from
a range of regional programmes for
gathering field data (Figure 1). Some of
these have been completed, are now
in progress, or are still in the planning
stage. The role of ACE will be to organise
theme-based meetings and workshops to
review past work and develop volumes
for publication, and to promote planning
and international collaboration for
future field programmes. Most Antarctic
earth science research is necessarily
regional in character, with different
countries normally operating in relatively
limited sectors of the continent. Even
multinational programmes typically focus
on one particular area of the continent.
Figure 1. Recent geological and glaciological field activities in Antarctica, illustrating the variety and spatial
Understanding climate evolution calls
extent of existing and forthcoming datasets useful to the ACE programme.
not only for a continent-wide view of past
records of Antarctic climate change, but
in climate (inferred from ice cores, sedimentary facies, and
also for an understanding of the connections between
seismic data), palaeoceanographic conditions (inferred from
continental margin and deep-sea processes and their separate
palaeoecology and climate proxies in ocean sediments)
but related histories.
and palaeogeography (as recorded in landscape evolution)
Figure 2. Geological time periods during the Cainozoic.
is the next step. The ACE programme aims to facilitate
research in the broad area of Antarctic climate evolution.
The programme will link geophysical surveys and geological
studies on and around the Antarctic continent (Figure 1)
with ice-sheet and climate modelling experiments. The
programme is designed to determine past climate conditions
and change in both the recent past (i.e. during the Holocene,
prior to anthropogenic impacts as well as at the last glacial
maximum, when temperatures were cooler than at present)
and the more distant past (i.e. in the pre-Quaternary, when
global temperature was several degrees warmer than they
are today). This new cross-disciplinary approach, involving
climate and ice sheet modellers, geologists and geophysicists,
will lead to a substantial improvement in the knowledge base
on past Antarctic climate, and our understanding of the factors
that have guided its evolution. This in turn will allow us to build
hypotheses, examinable through numerical modelling, for
how the Antarctic climate is likely to respond to future global
change.
A previous SCAR programme, named ANTOSTRAT
(ANTarctic Offshore STRATigraphy project) focused principally
on developing a stratigraphic framework for the Cainozoic
Antarctic margin through seismic stratigraphy and direct
sampling through offshore drilling and coring. During the
lifetime of ANTOSTRAT, significant advances have been made
to ice sheet and climate models, in terms of their ability to
replicate the modern environment and to reconstruct former
THE EGGS
18
global cooling trend that
culminates, at the EoceneOligocene
(±34
Ma)
boundary, with the major
global cooling event of the
entire Cenozoic era.
Coupled GCM/ice-sheet
modelling
has
already
been used to show that
the formation of the East
Antarctic Ice Sheet was
triggered by CO2 induced
cooling, rather than by the
cooling associated with
the opening of circumpolar
seaways during the earliest
Oligocene (DeConto and
Pollard, 2003, Figure 4).
The
mid-Oligocene
transition
(±30
Ma)
represents another major
cooling event, which is
associated with a major
eustatic sea level fall
that represents a likely
large expansion in the ice
volumes of Antarctica. The
southern continent and its
surrounding ocean basins
have been the target
of
numerous
scientific
expeditions and several
scientific drilling project
efforts. These all focused on
acquiring sediment cores to
decipher various stages
and aspects of Antarctica’s
Figure 3. Variation in the Earth’s temperature during the last 65 million years, based on reconstructions from deep-marine
ice cover and its effects
oxygen isotope records. Future atmospheric temperature scenarios are based on IPCC greenhouse trace gas projections are shown
on ocean circulation and
at top of diagram. Given the worse case scenario, planetary temperatures could increase in 100-300 years to a level where,
paleoclimates. The deepaccording to our knowledge of previous Antarctic glaciations, ice cover on Antarctica could not be sustained.
ocean records have clearly
documented
the
longterm cooling of climates over the past 50 m.y. and the large
variability in the last 3-5 m.y. They also show events that are
2. Functions of the programme
either abrupt or brief (i.e., the Paleocene warming event with
The main function of the ACE programme lies in the
a duration of less than 1 m.y.), or are marked by a distinct
acquisition and compilation of “ground truth” geoscience
shift in the rate at which long-term changes occur (i.e., middledata from geophysical surveys and drilling, and the use of
Miocene increased cooling trend). The explanation for these
these data in developing a suite of palaeoclimate models
events include changes in atmospheric gas concentrations
(both continent-wide and sectorial) for the Antarctic region for
(e.g., carbon dioxide and methane), opening of gateways with
significant periods of climate change through Cainozoic times.
enhanced ocean circulation, peaks in orbital forcing resulting
These periods (referred to in Figure 3), and the scientific
from Milankovitch cyclicities, interactions with northern
reasons for studying them, are detailed below.
hemisphere glaciations and others.
Scientific drilling on the Antarctic continental shelf and
Late Eocene-early Oligocene cooling
upper slope, to examine the direct record of glaciation, has
been sparse and has had significant problems with recovery
The Eocene-Oligocene is a key time interval in the history
(<20% in diamict) using current Ocean Drilling Programme
of the development of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Based on deep(ODP) techniques. Consequently, the linkages between
sea “proxy” records (e.g., oxygen isotope, global sea-level,
Antarctic continental shelf and deep ocean basin records are
ice-rafted debris, etc.), the Eocene and Oligocene represent a
not well established and the basic problem of ice sheet history
time of global cooling that culminates in the development of the
remains unsolved. Proxy measurements (particularly oxygen
first Antarctic ice sheet and an important expansion of Antarctic
isotopes) provide general details, but initiation, growth and
ice volume. The Eocene (± 52-±34 Ma) is characterized by a
extent of the ice sheets still are debated.
THE EGGS
19
Miocene through the PlioPleistocene.
A degree of heterogeneity
in climate response is
expected considering the
size and diverse landscapes
of Antarctica. Yet the
existing state of knowledge
is sufficiently contradictory
that the community has
evolved into two camps
when it comes to describing
late Neogene conditions in
Antarctica: the ‘stabilists’
and ‘dynamicists’. This is
another obvious target for
dedicated analysis using
a combination of climate
and ice sheet simulations
with careful assessment
of
the
palaeontologic,
palaeomorphoplogic
and
sedimentologic data from
around Antarctica.
Pliocene record
The Pliocene Epoch
is a critical time for
understanding the nature
of the Antarctic ice sheet
as IPCC (2001) projections
Figure 4. The simulated initiation of East Antarctic glaciation in the earliest Oligocene, using a coupled
of global temperature rise
GCM-ice sheet model (from DeConto and Pollard, 2003).
suggest that we will reach
Pliocene levels within the
Middle-late Miocene cooling
next hundred years (Figure 2). Geological evidence combined
with modelling is needed to determine the size of the ice sheet
The middle-to-late Miocene period represents a time of
and its dynamic behaviour. Indirect evidence, such as sea level
significant ice sheet expansion in Antarctica. The deep-sea
changes and ocean floor sediments, suggest that ice volumes
stable isotope record shows a mid-Miocene “climatic optimum”
were subject to cyclical variability. It is believed that, since
centred at about 15 MA, followed by strong enrichment of
Northern Hemisphere ice sheets were not fully developed,
oceanic oxygen-18 over the next 6 Myrs. It is during this
sea level changes were driven by fluctuations of the Antarctic
interval that East Antarctic glacial ice is thought to have
Ice Sheet. Many scientists believe that it was the relatively
evolved into a major and permanent ice sheet.
unstable West Antarctic Ice Sheet that was responsible for
One outstanding question revolves around the notion
these changes, but the role of the much larger East Antarctic
that this transition represents ice sheet development in East
Ice Sheet remains controversial. Key to this argument is the
Antarctica. New seismic-stratigraphic data from the Ross Sea
timing of the transition of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet from a
reveals at least 5 major intervals of ice shelf advance and
polythermal, dynamic condition to a predominantly cold stable
retreat in the middle Miocene. Much of this ice is sourced
state.
in West Antarctica, suggesting the presence of a large and
Two opposing and vigorously defended views prevail.
dynamic ice sheet in a part of Antarctica that is conventionally
The long-standing view is that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet
thought to be of lesser importance at this time. The presence
became stable in mid-Miocene time, evidence of which is
of significant and dynamic ice in East versus West Antarctica in
primarily from the longevity of the landscape and well-dated
the middle and middle-to-late Miocene is a question that ACE
surfaces and ash deposits in the Dry Valleys region along the
participants plan to answer via a combination of modelling
western border of the Ross Sea. Another controversial view
coupled with geophysical and geological analysis. One of
is that terrestrial glacial deposits, known as the Sirius Group,
the most vexing questions concerns the stability of Antarctic
scattered through the Transantarctic Mountains, indicate
climate and ice during the late Miocene. A variety of indicators
dynamic ice sheet conditions as recently as Pliocene time,
from the McMurdo Dry Valleys suggest the maintenance
based on diatom biostratigraphy and preserved vegetation.
of stable, hyper-arid, cold-desert conditions since 13 MA.
The latter viewpoint is supported by work on deposits known
However, microfossil studies in the Transantarctic Mountains,
as the Pagodroma Group along the flanks of the largest outlet
and sedimentological work within Antarctic fjords is suggestive
glacier, the Lambert, on the continent. Each argument is
of significant climatic dynamism extending from the late
internally consistent and the biggest challenge is to reconcile
THE EGGS
20
Last glacial cycle and deglaciation
the differing views. If the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was indeed
subject to major fluctuations until Pliocene time then, taking
into account IPCC projections, we have cause to be concerned
about the possibility of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet becoming
unstable within the next century.
The Pliocene question is best addressed by (1)
identification of suitable near-shore late Miocene-Pliocene
sedimentary basins to gain a high-resolution record of ice
sheet fluctuations, as is currently planned in the McMurdo
Sound area by the Antarctic Drilling Programme (ANDRILL);
(2) improved dating of the controversial Sirius Group glacial
deposits onshore; (3) discrimination of glacial processes and
products under different climatic and tectonic regimes; and (4)
ice sheet numerical modelling taking advantage of known ice
sheet limits at critical times.
There are currently 3 different ideas about the onset of
deglaciation: (1) changes in the water balance of the North
Atlantic, the source region for much of the global thermohaline
circulation, serve to propagate the deglacial signal worldwide;
(2) changes in the Southern Ocean, as recorded in some ice
cores, lead deglaciation as seen in Greenland ice; and (3)
synchronicity in the timing of high latitude climate change in
both hemispheres, and with some tropical records suggests
that tropical forcing is a key initiator of deglaciation.
It may seem surprising that this controversy has not
already been settled. The most important confound for
establishing synchronicity, or its absence, among the
available palaeoclimate records revolves around chronology
development. It is notoriously difficult to date last glacial
maximum (LGM) ice layers and sediments to an accuracy of
better than 1 to 2 thousand years. It is also difficult to separate
local climate or geomorphic signals from large transformations
that are regionally or globally important. What is needed to
resolve the deglacial synchronicity issue are better records
from rapidly-deposited deglacial sequences across a range
of longitudes and latitudes in the Southern Ocean, that
use sedimentary or glacial outlet indicators to directly track
regional climate systems. Currently there are too few precisely
dated records of the LGM from the Southern Ocean. The ACE
programme will encourage the acquisition of sedimentary and
ice core records from the Pleistocene in order for the history of
the last glacial cycle in Antarctica to be uncovered.
Pleistocene glacial cycles
(intervals of extreme warmth and cold)
Studies of Antarctic ice cores show that Pleistocene
climate variability in the different sectors of the southern high
latitudes has occurred out of phase. This raises questions
about the response of the southern high latitudes to external
climate drivers, such as orbital insolation, solar variability,
and internal amplifiers such as thermohaline circulation and
carbon cycle changes that operate at both Milankovitch and
millennial-decadal time scales. These questions highlight a
need for appropriate time series of climate variability from
all sectors of the Southern Ocean. Recovery of sediment
sequences with expanded Pleistocene sections, such as
those from beneath the McMurdo Ice Shelf as proposed by
the ANDRILL programme, will permit the study of the structure
and timing of glacial and interglacial cycles in the Southern
Ocean at millennial timescales that extend well beyond the
last four major climate cycles. In addition, several groups
organized under the International Marine Global Change Study
(IMAGES) programme have proposed to collect long piston
cores for Pleistocene research from several different sectors
of the Southern Ocean. With new high resolution Pleistocene
time series from both the Antarctic margin and offshore sites,
we can determine if the abrupt climate changes that have been
documented from the Atlantic and Indian sectors, and in polar
ice cores, have also occurred in the Pacific basin.
During the last decade, many palaeoceanographic studies
focused on millennial climate variability. They show that the
thermohaline circulation underwent instabilities linked to
climate variability. The palaeoceanographic record documents
mainly the North Atlantic Ocean, and modelling experiments
have explored the variability of North Atlantic Deep Water
formation forced by fresh water flux from ice surge events.
However, Southern Ocean sea-ice may be important during
glacial periods, which suggests that the glacial “on/off” modes
of global circulation could be linked to a very different deepwater formation in the Southern Ocean. At the moment there
are only a few records that document deep Southern Ocean
variability during glacial stages 2 and 3. Additional cores to
address these issues at this time period will be recovered as
part of the IMAGES and ACE science plans. Work proposed
under IMAGES and ACE will also help us document the
Pleistocene stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) as
well as areas of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that are grounded
below sea level.
THE EGGS
The Holocene (recent changes in Antarctica)
The global instrumental record establishes the existence of
a relatively small number of fundamental modes of coupled airsea interaction that are collectively responsible for most known
climate variability (or instability) at interannual to multi-decadal
timescales. Chief among these coupled modes are the El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, Pacific Decadal
Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation,
Tropical Atlantic Dipole, and Southern Ocean (or Antarctic
Circumpolar) Wave. All of these climate systems involve ocean
thermal anomalies, atmospheric feedbacks, and significant
climate responses on land.
Although the instrumental record informs us about
the existence and modern expression of these coupled
ocean-atmosphere systems, it is not sufficient to resolve
past changes in their dynamics and impacts or the relative
importance of centennial to millennial climate phenomena.
The palaeoclimate record is the only known source of
information on the long-term behaviour of these climate
pacemakers. However, existing knowledge of Holocene
variability is heavily biased towards terrestrial archives. There
is very little information about the global ocean background
climate state against which we observe and define the recent
dramatic warming trends, particularly in the Southern Ocean.
Nevertheless, rapidly accumulating deposits exist along
the continental margin of Antarctica, and a few sites further
north, that are suitable for reconstructing Holocene ocean
conditions at decadal and possibly interannual timescales.
Many researchers now believe that the link between high
and low latitude climate change on interannual and decadal
timescales is best expressed as the so-called “Circumpolar
Wave”, an apparent propagation of sea surface temperature
21
anomalies and atmospheric pressure patterns forced by
tropical ocean variability. Existing instrumental records of this
possible mode of global climate variability are too short to
provide meaningful insights about the mechanisms involved.
Long, annually resolved sediment records are required to
test the idea that the tropics and high latitudes are connected
through the same basic physical processes that govern ENSO
cycles. Although some ice cores show only minor variability
in the mid-Holocene, many terrestrial sites and some polar
marine sites show large excursions during the mid-Holocene.
In some cases these excursions, due presumably to changes
in insolation seasonality, are larger than the full glacial to
interglacial excursion. Southern Ocean sea ice and winds
appear highly sensitive to insolation forcing and IMAGES
cores can be used to examine forcing and response during
periods of the Holocene when atmospheric pCO2 levels varied
only slightly.
this meeting was very positive SCAR cannot grant full science
programme status at executive meetings. The full, revised
proposal will be submitted to the SCAR XXVIII meeting in
Bremerhaven, Germany 2004. If successful, ACE would
function as a full Scientific Research Programme from this
time for eight years.
4. Summary
ACE is a new, international research initiative to study the
climate and glacial history of Antarctica through palaeoclimate
and ice-sheet modelling investigations, purposefully integrated
with geological evidence for past changes. The ACE programme
aims to facilitate research in the broad area of Antarctic climate
evolution. The programme will link geophysical surveys and
geological studies on and around the Antarctic continent
with ice-sheet and climate modelling studies. These studies
are designed to investigate climate and ice sheet behaviour
in both the recent and distant geologic past, including times
when global temperature was several degrees warmer than
today. The goal of ACE is to advance the study of Antarctic
climate and glacial history, by encouraging and facilitating
communication and collaboration between research scientists
working on any aspect of the evolution of Antarctic climate and
ice sheets. ACE is not yet an official SCAR program. At SCAR
XXVII in July 2002, however, ACE was provided with funding
for a 2-year planning period prior to the establishment of ACE
as a sanctioned international research initiative operating
under the SCAR umbrella.
Summary of activities
While the activities noted above will concentrate on periods
subsequent to the Palaeocene, it should be noted that ACE
will also encourage and support palaeoenvironmental data
collection from earlier periods that allow us to understand the
immediate pre-glacial history of Antarctica. For example, drilling
in the Bellingshausen Sea and the Larsen Basin may provide
key evidence for the Palaeocene thermal maxima, which would
be of direct relevance to ACE in terms of the preglacial climate
setting of Antarctica. The point of ACE is to encourage and
facilitate communication and collaboration between research
scientists working on any aspect of the evolution of Antarctic
climate. This can best be achieved by organizing workshops
and symposia to present new results, exchange ideas,
share/compile information and coordinate/plan laboratory and
field operations. ACE will not undertake fieldwork, as this is
currently being coordinated with the activities of autonomous
programmes such as ANDRILL. ACE does have a role,
however, in advising the research community on the types
of geoscience data required for palaeoclimate modelling and
effective model-data intercomparison, and critical locations
(and ages) for which such data are needed. ACE will certainly
promote data access and data sharing (and data-contributions
to the Seismic Data Library System, Antarctic data centres,
and cognizant World Data Centres) to facilitate and expedite
data syntheses needed for developing new field programs and
enhancing palaeoclimate models. Finally, ACE will be able to
summarize and report the results of field and modelling efforts
to the scientific and wider community on an ongoing basis at
workshops and symposia.
Acknowledgements
Many of the items presented in this article benefited from
discussions held at various ACE workshops and meetings over
the last two years. Funding for these meetings was provided
by SCAR and the US-NSF. We thank the ACE committee
(Robert M. DeConto, Carlota Escutia, Fabio Florindo, Thomas
Janecek, Robert Larter, Tim Naish and Ross D. Powell) for
their advice and comments. Details of the ACE programme
can be found at our website: http://www.geo.umass.edu/ace.
We also acknowledge input to the ACE proposal by a number
of scientists, including Peter Barrett, Alan Cooper, Michael
Hambrey, David Sugden, David Pollard, Rainer Gersonde,
Jane Francis, Gary Wilson, David Harwood, Andrés Moldonado
and Antony Payne.
References
Barrett, P.J. 1996. Antarctic palaeoenvironments through
Cenozoic times - A review. Terra Antarctica, 3, 103-119.
Cooper, A., Barrett, P., Florindo, F. 2002. New inferences
on Antarctic ice sheets and Cenozoic paleoclimates. Eos,
Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 83, 35-36.
DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D. 2003. Rapid Cenozoic glaciation
of Antarctica triggered by declining atmospheric CO2. Nature,
421, 245-249.
Freeman, K. H., and J. M. Hayes. 1992. Fractionation of
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3. Timetable for ACE
ACE has official status as a two-year Scientific Programme
Planning Group, following submission of an outline bid to
the SCAR XXVII meeting in Shanghai, July 2002. Since its
creation (albeit in preliminary format), ACE has undertaken a
series of meetings and symposia. Furthermore, the scientific
programme within ACE is already underway, with the first two
papers directly related to the ACE science plan published in
Nature in January 2003 (DeConto and Pollard, 2003a; Barrett,
2003). The ACE committee, and several invited scientists,
submitted a draft of the full proposal to the SCAR executive
meeting at Brest, France in July 2003. Although feedback from
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22
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Linden and D. Xiaosu (Eds.) Cambridge University Press, UK.
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der Meer, J., McIntosh, W.C., Niessen, F., Passchier, S.,
Powell, R.D., Roberts, A.P., Sagnotti, L., Scherer, R.P., Strong,
C.P., Talarico, F., Verosub, K.L., Villa, G., Watkins, D.K., Webb,
P.N. and Wonik, T. 2001. Orbitally induced oscillations in the
East Antarctic ice sheet at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary.
Nature, 413, 719-723.
THE EGGS
Summerfield, M.A., Sugden, D.E., Denton, G.H., Marchant,
D.R., Cockburn, H.A.P. & Stuart, F.M. 1999. Cosmogenic
isotope data support previous evidence of extremely low rates
of denudation in the Dry Valleys region, southern Victoria
Land, Antarctica. In, Uplift, erosion and stability, B.J. Smith,
W.B. Whalley and P.A. Warnke , eds. Geological Society,
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Zachos, F., Pagani, M., Sloan, L., Thomas, E. Billups, K.
2001. Trends, rhythms and Aberrations in Global Climate 65
ma to Present. Science, 292, 686-693.
Martin Siegert
Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical
Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
[email protected]
23
Poster designed by Vivek Arora
STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes for European regions:
STARDEX
The STARDEX co-ordinator, Clare Goodess,
presents an overview and some first project results
address, focusing on scenarios of extremes.
Recent events, such as the August 2002 floods in Central
and Eastern Europe and the severe heatwaves experienced
across many parts of Europe in August 2003, graphically
illustrate the losses of life and very high economic damages
which can be caused by extreme weather events. According to
provisional estimates by Munich Re, for example, the August
2002 floods were responsible for economic losses of 21.1
billion Euro and insured losses of 3.4 billion Euro, together
with over 100 fatalities. A vital question for Europe is, therefore,
whether such events will occur more frequently in the future.
This is the problem which STARDEX aims to address.
General Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered
to provide the best basis for constructing climate change
scenarios. However, output from these models cannot be
widely or directly applied in many impact studies because
of their relatively coarse spatial resolution. The mismatch in
scales between model resolution and the increasingly small
scales required by impact analysts can be overcome by
downscaling. Two major approaches to downscaling, statistical
(based on the application of relationships identified in the real
world, between the large-scale and smaller-scale climate, to
climate model output) and dynamical (using physically-based
Regional Climate Models (RCMs)) have been developed
and tested in recent years by a number of different research
groups, and shown to offer good potential for the construction
of high-resolution scenarios (Hewitson and Crane, 1996; Wilby
BACKGROUND
The climate of the 21st century is likely to be significantly
different from that of the 20th because of climate change
induced by human activity (Houghton et al. 2001). The Kyoto
protocol and future initiatives, together with actions taken by
the EU, are expected to reduce the impacts of the changes,
but significant changes will still occur. These changes will be
perceived by European citizens mostly through increases in
some types of extreme weather. STARDEX aims to provide
scenarios of expected changes in the frequency and intensity
of extreme weather events (such as heavy precipitation and
resultant flooding and high temperatures) which are likely
to have an impact on human lives and activities and on the
environment.
Climate scenarios underpin all climate impact assessment
studies. The value of such studies is, therefore, limited by the
availability of appropriate and reliable climate scenarios. Thus
there is a growing demand for scenarios with higher and higher
spatial and temporal resolutions for increasingly specialised
applications within many different socio-economic sectors
across the EU (including agriculture, water resources, energy,
transport, tourism and public health), together with a need to
reduce the uncertainties associated with the scenarios (Karl et
al., 1999; Beersma et al., 2000; Cramer et al., 2000; Meehl et
al., 2000). It is these requirements which STARDEX aims to
THE EGGS
25
et al., 1998; Giorgi and Mearns, 1999; Mearns et al., 1999;
Murphy, 1999; Zorita and von Storch, 1999; Murphy, 2000).
In both cases, however, the focus has been on changes in
mean climate rather than on daily extremes and there is
considerable scope for further development and refinement of
the methodologies.
dynamical downscaling methods.
The STARDEX objectives are being implemented through
five thematic workpackages (WPs). Each of these is briefly
described below, and illustrated using selected first results
from the project. STARDEX began in February 2002 and will
run until the end of July 2005.
STARDEX OBJECTIVES AND INNOVATIVE
FEATURES
DATA SET DEVELOPMENT, CO-ORDINATION
AND DISSEMINATION (WP1)
Thus the two STARDEX general objectives are:
--To rigorously and systematically inter-compare and
evaluate statistical and dynamical downscaling methods for
the reconstruction of observed extremes and the construction
of scenarios of extremes for selected European regions and
Europe as a whole.
--To identify the more robust downscaling techniques and
to apply them to provide reliable and plausible future scenarios
of temperature and precipitation-based extremes for selected
European regions and Europe as a whole.
One of the main achievements of WP1 has been to
assemble on the internal project web site all the observed and
simulated data sets required to complete work in each of the
STARDEX case-study regions:
--Iberian Peninsula
--Greece
--Alps
--Germany (Rhine Basin)
--British Isles (NW and SE England)
--Northern Italy (Emilia Romagna)
While limited inter-comparisons of statistical and dynamical
downscaling methods have been undertaken, the STARDEX
work has a number of major distinguishing and innovative
features:
--the focus is on daily temperature and precipitation-based
extremes, rather than mean climate;
--a consistent approach (in terms of regions, observed and
climate model data inputs, variables and statistics studied and
time periods) is being taken;
--a regional case-study approach is being used in order
to allow detailed assessment at an appropriate high spatial
resolution, with the regions selected to represent the full range
of climatic conditions across Europe;
--each downscaling method is being tested in a number
of different regions and for a number of different extreme
indicators;
--the statistical and dynamical downscaling modelling work
is underpinned by detailed analyses of observed data which
will lead to the development of improved downscaling methods
and provide data for model evaluation; and,
--the involvement of stakeholders (e.g., from Munich Re and
Swiss Re) and members of the climate impacts community in
the project helps to ensure that the focus is on those extremes
which are most relevant to the insurance, water-industry and
other economic sectors.
A European-wide data set of observed daily temperature
and precipitation from nearly 500 stations has also been
constructed for use in the project.
A public web site has been set up http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
cru/projects/stardex/ and is updated on a regular basis.
A number of public report deliverables, for example, will
be added in late 2003, together with the first in a series of
information sheets which will present selected project results
in a less technical style. Two of the first information sheets are
entitled ‘The August 2002 flood in Central and Eastern Europe
and results from the EU STARDEX project’ and ‘Camouflage,
bluff, or real? Statistical uncertainty of trends in catastrophic
extremes’.
The web site includes a link to the MPS portal http:
//www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/mps/, which provides access to
information about the MICE (see The Eggs, Issue #05) and
These features are reflected in the STARDEX measurable
objectives:
1. Development of standard observed and climate model
simulated data sets, and a diagnostic software tool for
calculating a standard set of extreme event statistics, for use
by all partners.
2. Analysis of recent trends in extremes, and their causes
and impacts, over a wide variety of European regions and
Europe as a whole.
3. Evaluation of GCM integrations, particularly for
extremes.
4. Inter-comparison of improved statistical and dynamical
downscaling methods using data from the second half of the
20th century and identification of the more robust methods.
5. Development of scenarios, particularly for extremes,
for the late 21st century using the more robust statistical and
THE EGGS
Figure 1: 1958-2000 trend in the number of frost days. Scale is days per year.
Red is decreasing, blue is increasing. The size of each circle indicates the relative
magnitude of the trend. © Malcolm Haylock, UEA
26
Table 1: Summary of 1958-2000 trends in extreme heavy precipitation events
in the STARDEX case-study regions (++ strong positive, + positive, - strong negative, - negative, blank-no trend).
PRUDENCE EU-funded projects. Together with STARDEX,
this cluster of projects brings together expertise from across
Europe in the fields of climate modelling, regional downscaling,
statistical analyses of climate data and impacts analysis to
explore future changes in extreme events.
The public web site also provides free access to the
STARDEX diagnostic extremes indices software. This
comprises two elements: a FORTRAN subroutine that
calculates all the indices (19 for temperature and 33 for
precipitation) and a program that uses this subroutine to
process station data in a standard format. The software has
undergone extensive testing and is being widely used by
STARDEX partners and many other groups world-wide. A set
of 10 core indices has been identified, on which work in the
other STARDEX WPs has focused:
Precipitation:
--90th percentile of rainday amounts (mm/day)
--Greatest 5-day total rainfall
--Simple Daily Intensity (rain per rainday) ? Maximum
number of consecutive dry days
--% of total rainfall from events > long-term 90th percentile
--Number of events > long-term 90th percentile of
raindays
Temperature:
--Tmax 90th percentile
--Tmin 10th percentile
--Number of frost days Tmin < 0 degrees C
--Heat Wave Duration
The public web site also contains a list of STARDEX
publications, including conference presentations and
papers published in the peer-reviewed literature (e.g.,
Anagnostopoulou et al., 2003; Wilby et al., 2003).
Figure 2: 1958-2000 trend in summer rain events > long-term 90th
percentile. Scale is days per year. Red is decreasing, blue is increasing. The size
of each circle indicates the relative magnitude of the trend. © Malcolm Haylock,
UEA
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF CHANGES
IN EXTREMES, THEIR CAUSES AND
IMPACTS (WP2)
Figure 3: 1958-2000 trend in greatest 5-day total rainfall in winter. Scale
is mm per year. Red is increasing, blue is decreasing. The size of each circle
indicates the relative magnitude of the trend (the largest circle indicates a trend
of 2.1 mm per year). © Malcolm Haylock, UEA
WP2 focuses on the analysis of observed data. This
work will provide a baseline for the scenarios of extremes
(WP5), identify the most appropriate predictor variables for
the statistical downscaling of extremes (WP4) and provide
appropriate data for evaluation of statistical downscaling
(WP4) and GCMs/RCMs (WP3).
The first public deliverable from WP2 – a report on ‘Trends
in extreme daily precipitation and temperature across Europe
in the second half of the 20th century’ - will be available from
the web site in late 2003. Analyses of changes in extremes
have been undertaken for the STARDEX case-study regions
(e.g., Table 1) and for Europe as a whole (e.g., Figures 1-3).
These analyses reveal that both the frequency and magnitude
of extremes have changed and that the patterns of change are
spatially and seasonally variable but coherent.
Work is underway on investigating potential causes of the
observed trends, focusing on potential predictor variables
THE EGGS
for statistical downscaling, such as: sea level pressure;
geopotential height; relative/specific humidity; sea surface
temperature; North Atlantic Oscillation, blocking and cyclone
indices; and, regional circulation indices - defined using
reanalysis data. The spatially coherent changes in the number
of intense winter rainfall events across Europe (increasing
in northern and central Europe and decreasing elsewhere)
are, for example, strongly linked with the positive trend in the
North Atlantic Oscillation index (Figure 4). In other cases, the
occurrence of extremes can be associated with more regional
circulation patterns. For example, the so-called circulation type
Vb has caused three major floods within five years in Central
and Eastern Europe (i.e., the Elbe flood in August 2002; the
Odra flood in July 1997 and the Wisla flood in July 2001). The
observed increase in the frequency and persistence of zonal
circulation is also consistent with the positive trends in greatest
27
--To identify the need for downscaling from GCMs;
--To assess the reliability of predictor variables and hence
improve confidence in statistical downscaling techniques;
--To provide a baseline against which to assess the added
value of downscaling;
--To feedback information to modelling centres about the
ability of climate models to reproduce observed extremes,
predictor variables and their inter-relationships; and,
--To explore whether relationships between extremes and
predictor variables change in the future - which may invalidate
the underlying assumption of statistical downscaling, i.e., that
these relationships are unchanged.
In order to ensure that fair inter-comparisons of observed
and RCM data are undertaken, it is necessary to ‘upscale’
observations to the RCM scale (i.e., 50 km grid squares).
For regions such as the Alps (see Figures 5 and 6), with very
dense station networks, this is relatively easy. The STARDEX
RCM evaluations focus on extreme events, such as the 90th
percentile of precipitation, and on the ability of the models
Figure 4: Correlation in winter between the North Atlantic Oscillation index
and the coherent spatial pattern (Principal Component (PC) 2) of the number of
rainfall events > long-term 90th percentile. © Malcolm Haylock, UEA
5-day rainfall totals (an important parameter for flooding) over
many parts of northwest and central Europe (Figure 3).
ANALYSIS OF GCM/RCM OUTPUT
AND THEIR ABILITY TO SIMULATE
EXTREMES AND PREDICTOR
VARIABLES (WP3)
A rigorous evaluation is being carried out of
GCM and RCM simulations of present-day climate
as regards their ability to reproduce:
(a) The observed frequency and magnitude of
extreme events (from WP2);
(b) The observed distribution and variability of
circulation indices and other predictor variables
used by the statistical downscaling methods (from
WP4); and
(c) The observed inter-relationships between
extreme events and the predictor variables (from
WP2 and WP4).
Output from simulations for future time periods
(focusing on 2070-2099) will also be examined in
order to identify changes in the simulated extremes,
variables and their inter-relationships.
These analyses serve the following aims:
Figure 6: Comparison of the autumn 90th precipitation percentile (mm per day) over the Alps
from observations (top left) and three RCMs (CHRM, HadRM and HIRHAM) driven by
HadAM3H control run output for 1961-1990. © Christoph Frei, ETH
predictor
to reproduce observed seasonal cycles (e.g., Figure 5) and
spatial patterns (e.g., Figure 6).
INTER-COMPARISON OF IMPROVED
DOWNSCALING METHODS WITH EMPHASIS
ON EXTREMES (WP4)
A range of statistical downscaling methods (Wilby et al.,
1998; Zorita and von Storch, 1999) are being developed
and evaluated by STARDEX partners including: Canonical
correlation analysis, neural networks, conditional resampling,
regression, condition weather generator and methods based
on ‘a potential precipitation circulation index’ and ‘critical
circulation patterns’.
Both single-site and multi-site methods are being
developed. Some methods simulate daily temperature/
precipitation time series, from which indices of extremes are
then calculated, while others simulate the indices directly (e.g.,
Figure 7). Groups will apply their method(s) in two case-study
regions with contrasting climatic regimes, e.g., the method
shown in Figure 7 will also be tested in Greece. Three groups
will develop methods for downscaling the European-wide data
set of nearly 500 stations, and compare these results with
those for the case-study regions.
Figure 5: Comparison of the seasonal cycle of mean precipitation and the 90th
percentile for the Alps from observations (red) and three RCMs - CHRM,
HadRM and HIRHAM, driven by HadAM3H control-run output for 19611990 (black) and by ERA15 reanalysis data (blue). © Christoph Frei, ETH
THE EGGS
28
REFERENCES
Anagnostopoulou, C., Maheras, P., Karacostas, T. and
Vafiadis, M., 2003: ‘Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells
in Greece’, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 74, 77-91.
Beersma, J., Agnew, M.D., Viner, D. and Hulme, M., 2000:
Climate Scenarios for Water-Related and Coastal Impacts,
Proceedings of the EU Concerted Action Initiative ECLAT-2
Workshop 3, KNMI, Netherlands, May 10-12th 2000, Climatic
Research Unit, Norwich, UK, 140pp.
Cramer, W., Doherty, R., Hulme, M. and Viner, D., 2000:
Climate Scenarios for Agricultural and Ecosystem Impacts,
Proceedings of the EU Concerted Action Initiative ECLAT-2
Workshop 2, Potsdam, Germany October 13th - 15th, 1999,
Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, UK, 120pp.
Giorgi, F. and Mearns, L.O., 1999: ‘Introduction to special
section: Regional climate modeling revisited’, Journal of
Geophysical Research, 104, 6335- Hewitson, B.C. and Crane,
R.G., 1996: ‘Climate downscaling: Techniques and application’,
Climate Research, 7, 85-95.
Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der
Linden, P.J. and Xiaosu, D. (eds), 2001: Climate Change 2001:
The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the
Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK.
Karl, T.R., Nicholls, N. and Ghazi, A. (eds), 1999: ‘Weather
and climate extremes: Changes, variations and a perspective
from the insurance industry’, Climatic Change, 42, 1-349.
Mearns, L.O., Bogardi, I., Giorgi, F., Matyasovszky, I. and
Palecki, M., 1999: ‘Comparison of climate change scenarios
generated from regional climate model experiments and
statistical downscaling’, Journal of Geophysical Research,
104, 6603-6621.
Meehl, G.A., Zwiers, F., Evans, J., Knutson, T., Mearns, L.
and Whetton, P., 2000: ‘Trends in extreme weather and climate
events: Issues related to modeling extremes in projections of
future climate change’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society, 81, 427-436.
Murphy, J., 1999: ‘An evaluation of statistical and dynamical
techniques for downscaling local climate’, Journal of Climate,
12, 2256-2284.
Murphy, J.M., 2000: ‘Predictions of climate change
over Europe using statistical and dynamical downscaling
techniques’, International Journal of Climatology, 20, 489-501.
Wilby, R.L., Wigley, T.M.L., Conway, D., Jones, P.D.,
Hewitson, B.C., Main, J. and Wilks, D.S., 1998: ‘Statistical
downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison
of methods’, Water Resources Research, 34, 2995-3008.
Wilby, R.L., Tomlinson, O.J. and Dawson, C.W., 2003:
‘Multi-site simulation of precipitation by conditional resampling’,
Climate Research, 23, 183-194.
Zorita, E. and von Storch, H., 1999: ‘The analog method as
a simple statistical downscaling technique: Comparison with
more complicated methods’, Journal of Climate, 12, 24742489.
Figure 7: Results for an independent validation period for the downscaled
90th percentile of Tmax for Emilia Romagna, Northern Italy. Results from
two downscaling models using canonical correlation analysis and (1) principal
components of 500 hPa geopotential height and (2) large-scale blocking and
other circulation indices as predictors are compared with observations and NCEP
reanalysis. © Rodica Tomozeiu et al., ARPA-SMR
APPLICATION OF THE MORE ROBUST
DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES TO
PROVIDE SCENARIOS OF EXTREMES FOR
EUROPEAN REGIONS AT THE END OF THE
21ST CENTURY (WP5)
The final STARDEX task will be to apply the more robust
downscaling techniques identified in WP4 to construct
scenarios of extremes for the STARDEX case-study regions
and for Europe as a whole. Thus by the end of the project in
July 2005, STARDEX will have provided:
--Recommendations on the most robust downscaling
methods for scenarios of extremes
--Downscaled scenarios of extremes for the end of the 21st
century
--A summary of changes in extremes and comparison with
past changes
--Assessment of uncertainties associated with the
scenarios
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
STARDEX is a research project (EVK2-CT-2001-00115)
supported by the European Commission under the Fifth
Framework Programme and contributing to the implementation
of the Key Action ‘global change, climate and biodiversity’
within the Environment, Energy and Sustainable Development.
Results provided by the following STARDEX participants are
shown/quoted in this article: Maura Amici, András Bárdossy,
Carlo Cacciamani, Hans Caspary, Christoph Frei, Malcolm
Haylock, Valentina Pavan and Rodica Tomozeiu.
THE EGGS
Clare Goodess
STARDEX project co-ordinator
Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
[email protected]
29
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A significant work of reference
World Water Resources at the Beginning
of the 21st Century
I. A. Shiklomanov, John C. Rodda (eds.)
Published by: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521820855
YEAR : 2003
EDITION : 1st
#PAGES : 450
PRICE : 143.70 €
This 435-page monograph
was originally produced as a contribution
to the UNESCO IHP-IV (International
Hydrological Programme 4) from
1991-1995. The material presented
here however covers data sources up
to 1996 and with references, which
are well up to date. The task has been
carried out almost entirely by scientists
from the Russian Federation, led by
Prof. Shiklomanov. It is pointed out that
many of the world water assessments
in recent decades have been based
on data available only until the 1970s.
The period immediately prior to this was
one of unprecedented growth in water
engineering and usage, construction
of large dams as well as a time when
rainfall distributions were different than
today in several regions. Therefore this
monograph is welcome, bringing us up
to date by a quarter of a century.
This volume aims to bring together
an immense volume of data on global
water statistics, regional data on socioeconomic background to water use,
resource estimates, summaries of river
THE EGGS
31
flow and drainage to the oceans, as well
as trends and changes in water uses
in the latter half of the 20th century;
forecasts of trends to 2025 are also
given. This really is a comprehensive
account of the world’s surface waters,
based on a global network of 2500
sites. However, data on groundwater is
lacking, which is a significant drawback
of this (and other recent compilations)
especially when discussing arid and
semi-arid regions. We are assured that
groundwater is to be the topic of a future
monograph.
The book consists of twelve
chapters. The first three are introductory
and deal with general information on
global hydrology, the hydrosphere as
well as the methodology employed
for the assessments, and forecasts of
future water availability. These chapters
are significant as they review the various
factors, especially human factors that
have led to shifts in water balance
during the past half century. The growth
in irrigated agriculture for example has
increased five-fold during the course of
the twentieth century and some 15% of
the world’s agricultural land is currently
irrigated. However the rate of increase
of irrigation decreased sharply during
the 1980s due to high capital costs,
salinisation, water depletion and the
need for environmental protection.
The body of the monograph consists
of six chapters, all produced to a
common structure – on Europe, Asia,
Africa, North America, South America,
Australia and Oceania. This structure
includes sections on the physical
conditions and surface hydrology,
socio-economic background conditions
affecting water use, available data,
water resources distribution (time and
space) and trends in water availability
and use. A final section is added to
certain chapters – for example on the
Aral Sea Basin, the Aswan High Dam
and the problems of inter-basin transfers
in Canada.
On the whole the authors have done
an excellent job in bringing together so
much information and in presenting,
especially in summary tables, relevant
information brought up to date to the
end of the millennium. The sources of
information rely strongly on UN agencies
and also on original compilations by
the team of authors from the State
Hydrological Institute in St Petersburg.
Many of the sources of information are in
Russian, which is somewhat frustrating,
but has its compensations, since this
English compilation makes available
for the first time access to valuable
data from parts of Asia e.g. the former
Russian republics, where excellent data
sets were collected from the 1920s to
the 1980s, during Soviet times.
The task of compilation of data at
the continental scale is daunting. One
might question the value of assembling
information for Asia as a whole (where
Cyprus and China appear together) and
which also leads to many meaningless
statements and sections such as on
the climate of Asia as a whole. The
continental scale compilations are
sometimes confusing in terms of scale
since regions, countries and basins
are discussed alternately and together.
As mentioned earlier a discussion of
the water resources of certain arid and
semi-arid regions can be irrelevant
since groundwater is not considered.
The final three chapters form a
synthesis at a global scale of trends in
water renewal, water use and resource
availability, as well as the impacts of
climate change. These estimates are
probably the most reliable to date and
summarise the changing water stress
situation in the 1950s, 1990s and as
predicted in 2025. The chapter on
climate change impacts is particularly
useful and challenging with references
right up to date. The authors point
out the need for improved monitoring,
especially of rainfall.
This is a well-edited and well laid out
book and obvious errors are few and far
THE EGGS
32
between for a work of such complexity.
The authors go to some length however
to stress the overall uncertainties in
much of the global data currently in use.
The main weakness of the work is in the
quality of many diagrams, especially
the maps, and a number of the more
important of these could with advantage
have been redrawn. For a text published
at the start of the twenty-first century it
should also have been possible to
provide web sites of importance, which
form the basis of the source of much of
the new data on hydrology.
This monograph is a significant
milestone in our knowledge of the
world’s water resources and reflects
the dedication of the Russian team to
this task. It will be of immense value to
hydrologists worldwide, but also provides
a source book for oceanographers
and climatologists, needing up to date
summaries on the freshwater cycle. It is
a significant work of reference that will
doubtless form the major source book of
the next decade and deserves to be on
the shelves of every university library.
Prof W Mike Edmunds
Research Director
Oxford Centre for Water
Research
School of Geography and
Environment
U.K.
An essential part of any reference collection
Heterogeneity in the crust and Upper Mantle:
Nature, Scaling and Seismic Properties
John A Goff and Klaus Hollinger (eds.)
Published by: Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, NL
ISBN: 0306474476
YEAR : 2003
EDITION : 1st
#PAGES : 350
PRICE : 129.00 €
Heterogeneity in the
crust and upper mantle is
the expression of the physical and
chemical properties of the materials
which form them and the cumulative
results of their geological evolution.
This heterogeneity occurs on all scales
and when measured it is commonly
found to be scale invariant. Seismic
studies are conducted at a range of
wavelengths usually selected to image
the target of interest. Seismograms are
the result of the interaction between
heterogeneities and the seismic waves
propagating through them. The ability
to image heterogeneities is dependent
upon the relative scales of wavelength
and heterogeneity. A reflector in a deep
seismic section may scatter energy
in a wide-angle section. At one level
the heterogeneity is of interest while
at another it may actually degrade
the quality of the image. It is now
recognised that most seismic images
contain valuable information below the
level of resolution of the method, from
which it is possible to extract details of
the level of heterogeneity.
THE EGGS
33
This book brings together the results
of a special session on “Characterisation
of small-scale crustal heterogeneity”
held at the 1999 AGU fall meeting, and
provides an up-to-date overview of the
developments in our understanding of
crustal heterogeneity, from its causes
to how it is imaged using the seismic
method. The book is divided into a
series of chapters, each by different
authors and as such is really a collection
of research papers. However the
editors have made a conscious effort
to structure the book into 3 sections
with common themes and include
cross referencing between chapters
which brings the ‘papers’ together in a
cohesive volume.
The first section of the book (chapters
1-4) deals with geological causes
and observations of heterogeneity.
Chapters 5 to 8 cover the description
of heterogeneity over a range of
length scales and variety of geological
environments and the last 5 chapters
examine the seismic expression of
crustal and upper mantle heterogeneity.
In Chapter 1 Waters et al. focus
on the structural/deformational origins
of heterogeneity. They focus on the
importance of progressive strain
in developing different scales of
heterogeneity and use this as a basis
for understanding the origin of the range
of structural heterogeneity found in the
Mt. Hay region of central Australia. The
petrological origins of heterogeneity
are discussed by Smithson and
Johnson in chapter 2. They emphasise
the importance of deformation and
metamorphism driven compositional
heterogeneity and stress that the
length scales of layering are often more
important than impedance contrasts in
producing high amplitude reflections in
seismic data. In Chapter 3 Rutter et al.
derive a crustal cross section from maps
of the Ivrea zone in northern Italy from
which they produce a synthetic seismic
reflection section which is compared
with deep seismic reflection profiles. It
provides an important lesson for those
of us trying to interpret deep seismic
reflection data because the exercise
reveals the limitations of the reflection
imaging technique in accurately
resolving complex structures and
determining the temporal evolution of
the crust. The last chapter in this section
focuses on the oceanic crust. Karson
and Christeson describe an exposed
section through the oceanic crust in the
Hess Deep and contrast this section
with typical models for the oceanic crust
in the context of seismic imaging. Of
interest is that they argue convincingly
that there should not be a direct
correlation between geological and
seismic heterogeneity. The latter being
more strongly controlled by changes in
porosity and metamorphism.
The second section of the book
begins with a chapter by the editors who
consider the underlying causes of the
well established observation that seismic
velocities fluctuate at a rate which is
inversely proportional to a function of
spatial frequency. From a study of the
KTB test borehole they emphasise the
importance of fracturing over a range of
length scales which exceeds the length
scales of compositional heterogeneity
as the primary cause of velocity
variation. This theme is continued in
the chapter by Leary who argues that
while it is possible to demonstrate the
scale invariance of many structures it
is not possible to predict the properties
of heterogeneities (in particular fracture
systems and permeability) at one length
scale from those observed at a difference
length scale. Leary also makes the point
that fractal distributions say nothing
about spatial distributions which can,
for instance, be vital in determining
connectivity of fractures. In Chapter 7
Painter considers the methods which
are employed to characterise spatial
variability in sedimentary rocks and tests
them against observation. This section
is concluded by an important chapter
by Marsan and Bean who consider the
limitations of the 1 dimensional fractal
approach and introduce multifractal
characterisation of heterogeneity in the
Earth which is better able to replicate
observed heterogeneity, particularly
over wider ranges of scales and spatial
distributions.
The third section of the book begins
with a paper by Hobbs who considers
the effects of seismic acquisition and
processing on our ability to image
the lower crust, the limitations of 2D experiments and the significance
of seismic scattering in determining
Q and our understanding of crustal
heterogeneity. The following chapter by
Mereu complements that by Hobbs by
examining the effect of heterogeneity
on wide-angle/refraction data and the
generation of coda in wide-angle record
sections. The simple approach taken
is successful in explaining many of
the features of the data. Heterogeneity
in the upper mantle is considered by
Tittgemeyer who uses the results of
controlled source seismology to infer
heterogeneity in the upper mantle. This
author shows by modelling that the
presence of a high frequency Pn phase
in many long range refraction datasets is
consistent with energy propagating in a
waveguide resulting from heterogeneity
THE EGGS
34
in the upper mantle. In Chapter 12
Hurich takes an opposite approach to
the rest of this section, and with some
caution (it is worth reading chapter
9 before 12), attempts to recover
characteristics of heterogeneity from 2D reflection seismic data. The success
of this approach naturally depends upon
our ability to correctly image the subsurface and even the highest resolution
3-D seismic data are not capable of
doing this sufficiently well to allow us
to fully understand sub-wavelength
heterogeneities which play a significant
role in scattering seismic energy. Wu
offers a different approach to the same
aim in the last chapter. He advocates
using coherence analysis across an
array of seismometers and assesses the
effectiveness of a range of coherence
methods to resolve heterogeneity at
different depth/distances along the
raypath.
The book is well written, with
commendably few typographic errors.
I would have liked to have abstracts
at the beginning of every chapter
but most have a good summary or
conclusion section which can be read
as an alternative. Each chapter ends
with a good set of references and a
short index provides a means of cross
referencing between chapters where
this has not already been included in
the text. My one complaint is the quality
of the figures, which are all in black and
white have not always reproduced well.
An insert with some colour figures would
have been a valuable addition.
Primarily aimed at the researcher, this
book provides an excellent introductory
overview to the subject, which should be
read by any Earth Scientist wishing to
gain an insight into the characterisation
and imaging of crustal and upper mantle
heterogeneity. It should be an essential
part of any reference collection.
Richard England
University of Leicester, UK.
Book is ideal for researchers and upper level students (MSc/PhD)
Aquatic ecosystems:
Interactivity of dissolved organic matter
Stuart E.G. Findlay and Robert L. Sinsabaugh (eds.)
Published by: Academic Press
ISBN: 0-12-256371-9
YEAR : 2002
EDITION :
#PAGES : 512
PRICE : 99.00 €
This book discusses
dissolved organic matter in
freshwater ecosystems (both lotic and
lentic), although some chapters address
the questions posed in the marine and
estuarine environment as well. Prior to
reading this book, I had mostly focussed
on marine and estuarine cycling of
dissolved organic matter (DOM) and
after having read the text, it was evident
that there is a much stronger interaction
between chemists, biologists and
ecologists in the freshwater field and this
is reflected in the chapters presented.
As stated in the title, “Interactivity of
dissolved organic matter” this book
aims to discuss linkages between DOM
and other processes in the aquatic
environment.
The book comprises a total of 20
chapters, written by a wide diversity
of researchers and is divided up into
three main sections. The first section,
“Sources and Composition” addresses
the sources and the chemical
composition of organic matter in aquatic
ecosystems.
THE EGGS
35
The second section, “Transformation
and Regulation” covers the factors
involved in the cycling of organic matter
and the third section, “Approaches to
Synthesis” tries to present a holistic,
ecosystem
wide
perspective
on
the interactivity of DOM in aquatic
ecosystems. Although each chapter
deals with a specific point and stands
alone on its own account, it is on the
whole that the message of interactivity
is revealed.
In the first section, chapters 1
and 2 discuss the sources of DOM
to freshwater systems and focus on
autochthonous
and
allochthonous
sources, respectively. Chapter 3 is on
the role of “Trace organic moieties in
DOM in natural waters” and introduces
some of the methods that can be used
to trace the sources of aquatic DOM.
The next two chapters cover the role of
various monomers in stream metabolism
and the indicators of bioavailability of
DOM. The sixth chapter considers the
sources, sinks and transformations of
DOM at the regional, continental and
global scale. The last two chapters of
this section discuss the role of DOM in
mediating change in the bioavailability
of other compounds in freshwaters,
through speciation and complexation
with organic contaminants and metals.
In the second section, the focus is on the
factors affecting the transformation and
regulation of DOM. The first chapter of
this section, chapter 9, further discusses
the contribution of amino acids and
other low molecular weight compounds
to the flux of DOM and introduces the
role of bacterial community composition
in DOM cycling, a theme which is further
discussed in chapter 14. Chapter 10
reviews the role of photochemistry in
controlling the interactivity of DOM
and bacteria and chapters 11 and 15
provide an ecosystem scale view of
organic nitrogen sources and sinks and
of the factors controlling the response
of bacteria to DOM, respectively. This
section also has one chapter (Chapter
12) examining the importance of biofilms
and another (Chapter 13) discussing the
role of extracellular enzymes in DOM
cycling.
The last section aims at moving
towards a synthesis of the interactivity
of DOM in aquatic systems. This
section comprises of 5 chapters,
each of which considers an aspect
of the parameterisation of DOM
interactivity. The first chapter, chapter
16, “Physiological models in the context
of microbial food webs” integrates the
processes identified in many of the
previous chapters into a modelling
format. The second chapter is a review
of the lability and consumption of DOM
across aquatic systems. The third
chapter provides a discussion of the
parameterisation of the interactivity
between DOM and microbial diversity,
and the penultimate chapter focuses
on the drivers of ecosystem stability.
The final chapter, written by the editors,
aims at an integrated summary all of
the subjects discussed in the previous
THE EGGS
36
19 chapters in order to bring about a
cohesive synopsis of the interactivity of
DOM in aquatic systems.
On the whole the book covers an
extensive range of topics related to
the interactivity of DOM in aquatic
ecosystems. Of course, no one book
can encompass everything, however, I
felt that the book would have benefited
from a more in depth discussion of the
role of coloured DOM and colloids in
freshwater systems as both of these can
play important roles in lake ecosystem
dynamics.
With regard to the intended audience,
this book is ideal for researchers
and upper level students (MSc/PhD)
who wish to be more familiar with the
freshwater ‘side’ of DOM cycling.
Emma J Rochelle-Newall
Centre IRD de Noumea
New Caledonia
[email protected]
“SAAS FEE” Winter School - (Course)
regimes where Alfvenic structure is commonly observed such
as the aurorae of the Earth and other planets, magnetospheres,
the solar wind, and the laboratory environment.
Program Topics:
- Alfven Wave Generation
- Magnetospheric (global) Alfven Waves (including fieldline resonances, the Alfven resonator)
- The Role of Alfven Waves in Particle Acceleration
(including auroral acceleration)
- Energy and Momentum Transport due to Alfven Waves
- Alfven Waves in the Solar Wind, the Sun, Planetary
Magnetospheres and Laboratory Experiments (relevant to
space)
Program Committee:
R. E. Ergun (chair), M. Andre, C. C. Chaston, C.-G.
Falthammar, G. Haerendel, W. Lotko, G. Marklund, A. Vaivads,
J. Vogt, and M. Yamauchi Local Organizer: Laboratory for
Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado,
Boulder, Colorado. Chair: Laila Andersson
Previous Alfven Conferences:
http://www.alfvenlab.kth.se/alfvenconf/
15/03/2004 - 20/03/2004 - Davos, Switzerland
The Swiss Society of Astrophysics
& Astronomy (SSAA) is now organizing its 34th
Advanced Course in Astronomy and Astrophysics.
This winter school will be held in Davos, Switzerland from
March 15 to 20, 2004. The subject of the course is:
THE SUN, SOLAR ANALOGS AND THE CLIMATE
The course will address the subject of the solar variability
and its interaction with the terrestrial climate. In these times of
concern about global warming, it is important to understand
the solar variability and its interaction with the atmosphere,
in order to be able to distinguish between the solar and
anthropogenic contributions to the raising temperatures in
the last century. One third of the course will be devoted to the
observed variability of the Sun, its theoretical origin and the
present understanding of the variability. The second third of the
course will address the Earth’s climate and how solar variability
affects it. Finally, the last third will discuss the variability of
solar analog stars. This helps to better understand the solar
cycle and to estimate how large the solar variations could be
on longer time scales, and consequently, which effect the long
term solar variability has on the Earth’s climate.
The lectures will be given in English by three experts, each
covering one of the three topics:
Mike Lockwood (Solar variability)
Mark Giampapa (Stellar variability)
Joanna Haigh (Sun-Earth relationship)
The course is intended mainly for post-graduate
astronomers and physicists who wish to broaden their
knowledge in the field.
Organiser:
Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics,
University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Website:
http://lasp.colorado.edu/alfconf3/
SPARC 3rd General Assembly (Meeting)
01/08/2004 - 06/08/2004 - Victoria, British Columbia,
Canada
The General Assembly will cover all the topics of
Organiser:
Swiss Society of Astrophysics & Astronomy (SSAA)
Website:
http://www.pmodwrc.ch/
relevance to SPARC, including:
. Stratospheric climate and indicators of climate change
. Stratospheric data assimilation
. Transport and mixing in the stratosphere and between
stratosphere and
troposphere
. Gravity-wave processes and their parameterization
. Stratospheric and upper tropospheric water vapour
. Chemistry, radiation, aerosols and dynamics in the UT/
LS
. Chemistry-climate modelling of the stratosphere
3rd Alfven Conference - Alfven Waves
in Space Plasmas - (Meeting)
23/08/2004 - 27/08/2004 - Steamboat Springs,
Colorado, USA
The Alfven wave, first discovered by Hannes Alfven,
is one of three principal modes that govern the lowest-order
dynamics of many space, astrophysical, and laboratory
plasmas. Alfven waves are known to energize ions, transport
energy and momentum, and interact with other wave modes.
The shear Alfven wave with small perpendicular scales is also
capable of electron acceleration, and recent work has shown
that this acceleration process is active in the generation of the
Earth’s aurora.
The purpose of the 3rd Alfven Conference is to explore and
discuss recent advances of the roles of the Alfven wave from
the micro-physical to the global perspectives in vastly different
THE EGGS
Deadline for Abstract Submission: January 31, 2004
Organiser:
Scientific Program Committee Co-Chairs: A. Ravishankara
([email protected]) and T. Shepherd ([email protected]
toronto.ca)
Local Organizing Committee Chair: N. McFarlane (norm.m
[email protected]).
Website:
http://sparc.ses.uvic.ca/
37
EurOCEAN 2004 Conference (Meeting)
4th EMS Annual Meeting - (Meeting)
26/09/2004 - 30/09/2004 - Nice, France
10/05/2004 - 13/05/2004 - Galway, Ireland
The European Meteorological Society
organizes and hosts a conference on climatological and
meteorological interdisciplinary topics with an emphasis on
applications such as
- Instruments and methods of observations
- Atmosphere and the water cycle - a real-time look
- Applied Climatology: the 5th European Conference on
Applied Climatology (ECAC) is featured as part and partner of
the EMS Annual Meeting
- Computing in Atmospheric Sciences
- Information provision and education
- Strategies with respect to the development of operational
meteorology as well as symposia and side meetings.
The ESF Marine Board is delighted to provide
advance notice that the EurOCEAN 2004 Conference will be
hosted, as an Irish EU Presidency Event, in Galway, Ireland,
from 10th - 13th May 2004.
EurOCEAN 2004 will provide a unique opportunity to
marine science policy makers and scientists alike to:
* review the very significant co-operative marine R&D
supported under the EU 5th Framework Programme (19982002)
* debate role of marine R&D in the 6th Framework Programme
and in the evolving European Research Area (ERA).
The conference is currently in its Call for Programme stage
(The Call for Programme’s deadline is 11 January 2004),
which enables you to be part of the evolution of the final
programme.
More general information on the European Meteorological
Society can be found at
http://www.emetsoc.org
Details of EurOCEAN 2004, as they become available, will
be posted on the Conference Website.
It is anticipated that the full EurOCEAN 2004 Programme
will be announced and launched in December 2003 (available
on website).
We hope that you will note this as an important event
in your busy 2004 calendar. There is also the possibility
to hold specific interest group meetings in parallel with the
conference.
Looking forward to seeing you and your colleagues there.
Organiser:
European Meteorological Society
Website:
http://www.emetsoc.org/ems_4th_annual_meeting.html
Organiser:
Marine Institute Foras na Mara, EC and ESF Marine
Board
Website:
http://www.the-eggs.org/www.eurocean2004.com
5th International Symposium on
Eastern Mediterranean Geology (Meeting)
14/04/2004 - 20/04/2004 - Thessaloniki, Greece
Hydrogeologie Regionaler
Aquifersysteme - (Meeting)
An international conference, addressing the
entire range of earthsciences for the broader area of eastern
Mediterranean.
19/05/2004 - 23/05/2004 - Darmstadt/Germany
During the 2004 meeting of FH-DGG
Organiser:
Department of Geology, Aristotle
Thessaloniki, Greece
Website:
http://www.geo.auth.gr/5thISEMG
(German section of hydrogeologists) hydrogeological problems
of regional aquifer systems are discussed. The topics are
- hydrogeological and hydrchemical models – time and
space scales
- genesis of aquifers under the light of landscape
development and climate change
- new aquifer investigation methods - GIS - groundwater
mangement
- miscellaneous topics (natural attenuation, geophysical
methods, urban hydrogeology, emerging contaminants in
ground water)
Conference language is German. Important deadlines:
- poster or talk submission 01.12.2003
- latest registration 29.02.2004
Organiser:
FH-DGG Fachsektion Hydrogeologie der Deutschen
Geologischen Gesellschaft and Institute of Applied
Geosciences, Dr. Thomas Schiedek
Website:
http://www.tu-darmstadt.de/fb/geo/fhdgg/tagung2004/
THE EGGS
38
University
of