PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, VOL. 4, NO. 1, PAGES19-55, FEBRUARY1989 SURFACE WATER RESPONSE OF EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THE TO ORBITAL FORCING 1,2 William F. Andrew Mc Intyre, Ruddiman, 1 Karen Karlin, 1 and Alan C. Mix 3 Abstract. The response of the mixed layer of the equatorial Atlantic to climate change, for times greater than 10 kyr, is predominantly forced by the precessional component of periodicities insolation. hemisphere A zonal transect of three cores analyzed at 1-kyr intervals documents this response for 0-250 ka The western equatorial Atlantic is characterized by minimal variation in surface water character, indicating temporal stability of the mixed layer, except during intervals of maximum glaciation. In contrast, the eastern region shows marked temporal variations in temperature assemblages, estimated sea surface and foraminiferal with dominant 1Lamont-Doherty University, Palisades, New York. 2Queens College of the City University of New York, State University, Copyright 1989 by the American Paper number 0883-8305/89/88PA-038 95510.00 Union. surface ice temperature volume. forced variations in southern These of orbitally (1) and monsoon-controlled and (2) advection of trade wind divergence heat from high latitudes. INTRODUCTION The climate of the Earth undergoes rhythmic change. The last 780 ka were dominated by periodicities centered on 100 kyr, 41 kyr, and 23 kyr [Imbrie et al., . Earth-Sun orbital variations are considered the primary forcing function [Hays et al., 1976; Imbrie et al., 1986]. Climate response to insolation forcing is modulated by mechanisms. Imbrie and Imbrie [1980] that continental ice volume insolation by approximately kyr. Ruddiman and Mcintyre 1984] 88PA03895. on 23 kyr. are the product terrestrial Corvallis• Geophysical sea continental signals Flushing. 3College of Oceanography Oregon and 1984] Geological Observatory Columbia centered At precessional periods, the eastern equatorial Atlantic responds in phase with southern hemisphere sea surface temperature and significantly leads northern described response of Atlantic to variations ice sheets. mechanisms the orbital in lags 6 to 9 [1981, that high-latitude link North forced northern Prell showed and hemisphere Kutzbach 20 Mcintyre [1987] defined monsoon in the the role Indian paper examines the equatorial Atlantic forcing. Riehl of Surface momentum and most produces this the heat The energy gain function of insolation orbital The of 1964] in which then which water transport in and both zonal the the sense [Hastenrath, 1980]. Gordon [1985, 1986] has hypothesized interocean advection major and salt this and of thermocline component in budget. idea is salt the advection mixed modulated by orbital the of basis as ocean's these to of layer a heat A corollary that in water the heat is forcing. On observations and assumptions, our goals are to (1) document the history of the surface waters of the equatorial Atlantic from approximately 250 ka to the present; (2) determine the relationship between response, insolation glaciation); descriptive ice SURFACE Interhemispheric this surface Atlantic waters today transfer characterizes [Lamb, by the 1981; Hastenrath, 1980; Stommel, 1980; Oort and Vonder Haar, 1976]. Asymmetry of the continent and ocean configures structure the such tropospheric that the 1977] heat north melds Thus is Current . Brazil with The Current, the southern advected Guiana hemisphere northward; both the The strong seasonal variation in the forcing winds, the trades (tropical easterlies), produces a fluctuating equatorial system [Philander, 1979; Reverdin, 1985; Servain and Legler, 1986]. In boreal summer (June-September) , strong southern trades invade the northern hemisphere and the ITCZ is furthest from the equator. Along the equator, divergence, SEC speed, and thermocline slope are all at their maximum, SST in the eastern equatorial Atlantic is at its minimum, and the sea surface upward to the west [Katz and Garzoli, 1982, 1984; Servain 1986]. the western The water heat heat has southern hemisphere trade winds extend into the northern hemisphere for much of the year [Riehl, 1979] . Sea surface temperature (SST) is cool due to upwelling/divergence at and south of and 1983; 1976] and reservoir reservoir slopes transiting of Atlantic/Caribbean. the This a small annual variation in SST but a large annual variation in heat storage [Merle, 1980]. Variation of heat storage in the mixed layer of the western equatorial Atlantic reflects the export of heat northward in western boundary currents and eastward in countercurrent OCEANOGRAPHY heat Current. forms response. EQUATORIAL heat Equatorial the SEC warms [Molinari, Bunker and Worthington, volume and (3) erect models to explain south the Legler, oceanographic forcing (due to orbital variations), and (variations in continental cloud radiative Atlantic thermal equator and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) lie in the northern hemisphere. Hadley cell and tropical mixed layer is a major control of the global heat budget on all time scales. The tropical oceans are corridors of meridional diminishes [Hastenrath, for annually interaction in the Forcing continental margin of Brazil diverts part of the SEC into the northern hemisphere [Croll, 1864; Bjerknes, and through time. The tropical mixed layer of the ocean constitutes the major heat reservoir of the world. This enhances that geometry, both and (SEC) momentumand heat is a controls equator. cover This response of the to orbital of atmosphere." Water Response to Orbital the the Ocean. [1979; p.1] stated, "The are the source of all tropics the et al.' In boreal March), the s . winter southern (Decembertrades are weak, and part of the equatorial surface water piled up in the west flows back [Richardson Divergence, SEC speed its and as countercurrents and Reverdin, thermocline are minimal, annual maximum. its attendant 1987] . slope, and and SST is at Thus features the SEC have two quite different seasonal aspects. Statistical-dynamic models developed for and applied to equatorial oceanography [Cane, 1979; Mcintyre et al.' Surface Water Response to Orbital Forcing 0" 4 21 IO'N ß . . V25-59 ß Fig. 1. range of Map of annual contour core positions (triangles). temperature variation at interval is time the The 1øC. the northern boundary of the SEC, while the eastern Atlantic core, RC24-16, is positioned slightly Cane and Sarachik, 1976, 1977, 1979; Moore and Philander, 1977; Philander and Pacanowski, 1980, 1981, 1986a,b] support observational data with respect to the seasonal response of the equatorial Atlantic. The westward-flowing SEC is trade wind forced and responds essentially in phase with trade wind variations. This convergence of observation and modeling suggests two important questions' (1) is the annual cycle a suitable analogue for the slower physics of an orbitally forced response, and (2) are there significant variations in interhemispheric heat transport on orbital Contours delineate 50 m [Gorshkov, 1979]. south of the main axis of the SEC (Figure 1; Table 1) . The relationship of these cores to annual SST variation is clarified by comparison with the 50-m annual temperature variation (Figure 1) . The central and eastern regions (V30-40, RC24-16) show marked annual temperature variations, while the western region (V25-59) does not. All cores are above the present lysocline, defined as the depth at which undersaturation carbonate al., 1980] scales? enhanced of the ion occurs [Takahashi . Documented intervals dissolution in et of the Today the mixed layer of the equatorial Atlantic is partitioned into a western region where Atlantic, for example, isotopic stage 4 [Crowley, 1983], are represented in these cores by only small increases in fragmentation of foraminiferal tests. The sample variations interval DATA AND METHOD in heat storage region with We have SST are chosen three sited water Atlantic the core, Table Core core, to V25-59, Atlantic's The central V30-40, 1. lies mean is the mean time interval in warm The revised A •5-g beneath sample from piece 5ø2.3'S 1ø22.4 'N 0ø12.0 ' S each preparation Imbrie and is obtained r Depths r and Usable Longitudes Depth m RC24-16 V25-59 V30-40 sedimentation per at core In a of kyr. Core Coordinates Latitudes was rate of each core (centimeters kiloyears) derived from initial carbonate and biostratigraphy. the event, this provided data response to both regions. westernmost beneath reservoir. and an eastern response. cores document mixed-layer climate forcing in The minimal maximal and the opposite 10ø11.5'W 33ø28.9'W 23ø09.0 'W 3559 3824 3706 method is Kipp [1971]. from a 1- Lenqths Length cm 1066 841 755 1 22 Mcintyre cm-wide slice normal to dried for for weighed. of 4 g of of •m) bath Surface 2 hours, deionized is and is added to then agitated refer for 1 hour at 140 fraction allowed to a shaker rpm. by wet sieve. The collected and is settle until supernatant supernatant is is washed deionized the clear. The siphoned off, and the <63-•m sample is dried (<40 C) and archived. The >63-•m fraction is with o water and dried (<40øC). The procedure of shaking, wet sieving, and drying repeated twice. It has been determined •han that single this method, sequence with shaking, is the to disaggregate is rather 3 hours of more effective way while minimizing fragmentation. The cleaned >63-•m fraction is weighed, and the percent of >63-•m fraction by weight is calculated. Next it is randomly split into two halves' analysis, The successively latter half split and •m until planktonic at obtained. consists Generally, of 300 to at 150 least 300 whole foraminifera are a faunal 400 >150-•m specimens; determined a 300 count was to be the statistically acceptable lower al., 1973] . in the splits limit count not in et used an planktonic species (for example, both or Globigerinoides tuber, white, and G. ruber, pink) are recorded. Specimens not belonging to one of these 41 listed 29 have resolving taxa as or unidentifiable "other." been Of shown to the be foraminiferal by Q mode factor analysis Forcing Because the in warm and of terms equations, of abbreviated Tc for the cold age. STRATIGRAPHY The development of the SPECMAP time scale [Imbrie et al., 1984; Pisias et al., 1984, Prell et al., 1986; Martinson et al., 1987] permits the construction of chronologies with errors less than +2.5 kyr for records since 700 ka. The method utilizes oxygen isotope signals from foraminifera in which specific isotope signatures, called isotope events, have been defined [Pisias et al., 1984, Table 2]. Any core that contains well-preserved foraminiferal tests capable of yielding a continuous oxygen isotope signal is amenable to application of the SPECMAP isotope taxonomy. The isotope signals were obtained the benthonic foraminifera wuellerstorfi are 41 taxa, useful in assemblages [Kipp, 1976; Molfino et al., 1982]. SST estimates are calculated using a new transfer function FA20 [Molfino et al., 1982]. FA20 is based on an expanded set of core top samples in V25-59, from the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei in RC2416, and from Globigerinoides $acculifer in V30-40. core was one of those the SPECMAP time scale. of identifications archive. Forty-one morphotypes Ocean. estimates cold Reexamination [Imbrie The portions are retained the Cibicides is sieved for from one for oxygen isotope the other for faunal counts. Orbital equation. Estimated SST values for Tw and Tc for all samples are listed in Appendix A for both depth and Samples are partitioned sieving through a 63-•m <63-•m to Tw sample, in to Atlantic warm and (0.45 the the Response the equatorial region is characterized by annual migration the oceanic thermal equator, we then filtered Water from (oriented A disaggregating solution sodium metaphosphate per water which sediment al.' the core's long axis), 12-24hrs at <40øC, desiccated liter of et al. [1984] oldest the portion shown of latter to erect isotope used has The used by Imbrie that V30-40, in et the isotope events 8.2 through 8.3 were incorrectly identified. When the SPECMAP time scale was applied, this produced a marked change in sedimentation rates. We have revised event identification such that the anomalous sedimentation rates are eliminated and a rate commensurage with that younger than event 7.5 prevails to the core bottom (Appendix B) . All isotopic data are listed in the SPECMAP Archive 1 [1989]. Tape copies of this archive can be obtained by writing to the Data Support Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. Mcintyre et 5.0 al.' Surface Water Response V25-59 V30-40 018 018 4.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0 to Orbital Forcing 23 RC24-16 018 -1.0 -2.0 2.0 o.o 1.0 -1.o -2.0 I 1oo 200 Depth 300 400 -6.2 -6.4 500 600 700 800 Fig. 2. Oxygen isotope (180) signals plotted in the depth domain. The isotope substages used to establish correlation time scale are indicated by the appropriate numbers margin of each core, and the depth and age for each Appendix B. To achieve possible, the statistical criteria correlation best we have methods for goodness coefficient be correlation applied and defined of fit. r The between the isotope signals must be >0.90 (meaning that >80% of the compared signals are equivalent). Where similar periodicities are present, cross-spectral analysis is used to determine the coherency at these periods [Bloomfield, 1976; Jenkins and Watts, 1968] . Coherency is the tendency for oscillations over a given frequency band in one signal to be linearly related to comparable oscillations in another signal, when the effects of phase difference are removed by alignment of the two signals. The coefficient of coherency k measures the degree to which this tendency is present. If k is statistically significant, then the phasing at this period is meaningful. The former value must ß >0.80 and with the SPECMAP in the right are listed in the latter must be in phase for the signals to correlate. V30-40 is our primary stratigraphic control for the other cores in this study. Its isotope signal clearly depicts all the isotope stages (Figure 2). To determine if our stratigraphic revision was correct, we first transferred the signal domain using the dates event identified in isotope analyzed signal with stack. The the into the for each V30-40. This was cross-spectrally the SPECMAP isotope correlation SPECMAP time stack of is V30-40 to excellent, r=0.97. Intercore comparison of different parameters necessitates that the chronologies of V25-59, RC24-16, and V30-40 be the same. Chronologies were established RC24-16 possible, events. by for V25-59 and identifying, where the dated SPECMAP isotope The age of these events was Mcintyre Table 2. Statistics Spectral Core of the Surface Water Response to Orbital Cross- core, Oxygen with Siqnals Versus Coherence k r SPECMAP Phase 0.92 0.92 0.97 0.84 0.95 0.99 -1.5 ø 6.3 ø -1.0 ø Core Versus RC24-16 V25-59 V30-40 0.92 0.91 0.85 0.95 0.2 ø 5.6 ø correlation coefficient r is computed for the entire signal. The coherence k and phase values, in degrees, are only computed for the 23-kyr period. The three equatorial cores are shown isotope shown 40. versus stack [1984] statistics . the from the SPECMAP Imbrie Intercore of RC24-16 versus (3ø32.8'S, 35o13 8'W), ka record, also this et al. correlation and V25-59 SPECMAP core are V30- and RC24-16 V30-40 met our fit, were cross-correlated and, if criteria for intercore the goodness correlation If considered established. "tune" the the orbital resultant chronologies frequencies. The relevant statistics stratigraphic in Table 2; Appendix We did variations. temperatures temperature water for given are in B. difference SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE V25-59 is characterized r=0.034 (Table warm SST with low-amplitude variations except for a cool excursion late from ~143 to foraminiferal cool interval in V30-40 in isotope stage 130 ka (Figure 3) . The population within this is equivalent to that during stage 6. A nearby the warmest stable a and not Tc correlative, 3b) . of cores V30-40 in the region by seasonal divergence, following characteristics 3a and b) . First, Tc and, lesser extent, Tw have signals Second, low- that are well high-frequency are prominent in isotope in both Tw and Tc, being in V30-40 intracore are than in RC24-16. the Tw and Tc basically dissimilar. SST intercore differences, defined by pairwise subtraction of the mean temperature value of each core, are deemed significant if they the estimate These standard of the standard 1982, error FA20 Tc are +1.2øC [Molfino 1] . for all standard between of equation. errors for Table The for et Tw three cores lie error. The the V25-59 Tc mean and the Tc of the other two cores exceeds the standard error. Intercore SST differences are primarily 6, Tw are The SST signals and RC24-16, sited differences within the difference by a between they Tw and +1.3øC The SST signals in V25-59 differ markedly from those of V30-40 and RC24-16. with signals, al., ESTIMATED South range of all the cores These SST signals presence of a warm reservoir exceed all statistics are all chronologies to thermal character through time. While there appears to be little signals to entire Africa V2.5-59 has and smallest (Table 3a) . document the greater Third, not from cooler the we exclude the stage 6 cold variations stages 2-3 of 170 ka dominated interval, the SST signal in stages 1-5 in V25-59 is characterized by high-frequency SST variations whose amplitude is equal to (Tw) or exceeds (Tc) that of low-frequency frequency defined. was in America. to statistics interval (J. Imbrie, personal 1988). Thus, once zone dominated with 6 the last waters have the (Figures then used to transpose the isotope signal into the time domain by linear interpolation. These time domain signals were then correlated with the SPECMAP isotope signal. Last, the isotope signals of V25-59 cool isotope stage communication, equatorial RC24-16 V25-59 V30-40 The V25-56 within surface Stack Forcing a 0-170 contains Correlation Coefficient Core of Analysis Isotope et al.. due to the estimated Tc values. Intracore differences and Tc are Lnvolving latitude striking. SST estimates cores yielded between Past efforts in highTw and Tc Tw Mcintyre et al.- Surface Water Response V25-59 (øC) 22 to Orbital Forcing V$0-40 (øC) 29 15 22 25 RC24-16 (øC) 29 15 29 22 20 40 60 AGE 80 100 120 140 Tc Tw 160- 220 240' Tc 260 Tc Tw Tw Fig. 3. Estimated sea surface temperature, SST, for the warm, Tw, and cold, Tc, equations. Note the marked intracore signal difference in the listed signals were two eastern in Appendix basin A. whose amplitudes similar. For (41ø00'N, 32o55.5'W) and Mcintyre [1981] cores, V30-40 and periods example, V30-97 from Ruddiman has r=0.97 for Tc versus Tw. In the equatorial cores, the correlation between the Tw and Tc signals is significantly lower [Table 3b]. This difference was previously Hays [1976] noted by Gardner and and Prell et al. [1976]. The younger portions of the SST signals in both RC24-16 and V30-40 are quantitatively different from the older portions. Prior to the isotopic 6-5 boundary, the signal has little high-frequency variation. After the stage 6-5 boundary, highfrequency variability is present, particularly in isotope 2. These high-frequency stages 3 and variations and RC24-16. The SST data are in SST were checked by resampling and recounting 50% of the data levels valid. involved In and summary, both intercore responses equatorial western found estimated and an be SST defines intracore which subdivide Atlantic into and to unstable thermal the a stable eastern region. The latter is characterized by stronger intracore signal dissimilarity. Spectral analysis defines statistically significant periodicities. The method of spectral estimation used calculates the Fourier autocovariance and Tukey, The climate transform function of the [Blackman 1958; Bloomfield, 1976]. response to orbital 26 Mcintyre Table Cores Equation 3a. et al.The Surface Water Response to Orbital Basic Statistics Number of Estimated Temperature, of Forcing SST Standard oC Minimum Maximum Range Mean Deviation 24.98 19.32 22.94 16.41 23.63 15.73 28.32 25.56 28.40 24.58 28.73 25.91 3.34 6.24 5.46 8.17 5.10 10.18 26.89 23.62 1.106 25.45 1. 058 Samples V25-59 Tw Tc 165 165 V30-40 Tw 252 Tc 252 RC24-16 Tw 251 Tc 251 Tc and Tw refer to values estimated by the 20.92 1.697 26.23 0.765 20.61 2. 137 cold and warm equations, respectively. forcing in the concentrated equatorial in narrow cores is the bands centered on the three primary orbital periods. The 23-kyr period (precession) dominates the highamplitude Tc signals while the 41kyr period (obliquity) is present in the low-amplitude Tw signals. In the ensuing discussions we will refer to these bands by the primary periods' 23 kyr, 41 kyr, and 100 kyr. Precession contains both 23- and 19-kyr kyr signal at 23 kyr, components, but the 19is weak relative to that over the time interval of our and cores, heterodyne the tones it difficult concentrate existence around of 19 kyr makes to examine. on the 23 kyr minimum statistical The V25-59 SST signal is punctuated late in isotope stage by a cold interval. 6 To determine if this low temperature excursion materially altered the spectra, truncated Thus we precession for reliability. The spectrum of Tc lacks statistically significant periods, though there is power at 23 kyr, 41 kyr, and at very low frequencies. Both Tw and Tc spectra contain broad peaks centered on a period of 6 kyr. The sampling interval in this core is 1 kyr and the chronologic error, <+2.5 kyr; thus the significance of the 6-kyr period is questionable. the ka and V25-59 spectrally at analyzed the shortened The spectrum of V25-59 Tw (Figure 4) contains a broadband peak centered on a period of 41 kyr which resulted in a slight enhancement of the Tc 6-kyr period, the appearance of shoulders in the spectral curve at 23 kyr, and 12.5 kyr, and, as expected, the disappearance of power at very long periods. Tw spectra accounts for of the Tw signal. 34% of the total However, the record length encompasses less than four 41 kyr periods; five is for the Table at 3b. Zero Correlation Lag Between Coefficient r SST Signals Equation V25-59 Tw Correlation Coefficient r 0.233 Versus V30-40 V25-59 V30-40 RC24-16 Tc Tw versus Tw versus Tw versus Tc Tc Tc truncated record 41-kyr period. The periods of variations seen This the in retained rhythmic the time SST series plots of V30-40 and RC24-16 (Figure 3) yield well-defined spectral peaks (Figure 4). Tw in V30-40 has , Core the series. we 128 cycle. variance time record 0. 627 0.034 0.256 0.212 significant periods of 41 kyr and 16 kyr which account for 14% and 11% of the total variance, respectively. The V30-40 Tc spectra has significant periods of 23 kyr and 100 kyr. The 23-kyr period accounts for an impressive 46% of the total variance, while the 100-kyr period accounts other for 16%. significant There periods are in no this Mcintyre et al.' Surface Tw Water Response to Orbital Tc v25-59 2 : 10--• n=146 ø t=lka I/ I\ B.W.=O.028 d.f.=6.48 Forcing during (Figure the 5) RC24-16 V25-59 (8.3øC) (5.2øC, glacial. Seasonality has a maximum range , 0 i , , , , , , , ! , , V30-40 I--6]41:14% 44 : m=80 RC24-16 and ASSEMBLAGES B.W.=O.016 o C.1.=31.07 Z 0 0 RC24- 5 41:27% 6 52-• 25:41% n=236 / H m=75 / 100:24% /,• II AND , , , 0.1 ,.,, ,., ,., ........ recorded, 17 define 48 produced , , , , 0.2 , 0 0.0 0.1 0.2 FREQUENCY (cycles/ko) Fig. 4. Variance spectra of SST. Dominant periods in kiloyears of significant peaks are indicated. Abbreviations are. n, number of points; int., time interval between data points; m, lags (the number of points lagged in the Fourier analysis); BW, bandwidth; df, degrees of freedom; CI, confidence interval for the lower limit. spectrum. RC24-16 Tw and Tc spectra contain most of the same significant periods as V30-40, but the percent variance accounted for is different' 27% by 41 kyr in the Tw signal and 41% by 23 kyr and 24% by 100 kyr in the Tc signal. Seasonality is a measure of the annual range of SST variability. The Climate' Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction of the last V30-40. SST account four of by data (CLIMAP) glacial reconstruction maximum [CLIMAP Project Members, 1981] mapped oceanographic seasonality and demonstrated that the equatorial Atlantic had higher seasonality for the (Table 4). the of the assemblages analysis The explain of most and these six factor assemblages , in SST variance percent , 40% Foraminifera raw 0.0 Tc The response of the equatorial Atlantic to climate forcing, as monitored by estimated SST, can be analyzed by determining which foraminiferal components control the SST signals. Eight species of 100:16% 0 in d.f.=6.42 (J3 Z <• fluctuations f=lka >- i-. by Seasonality is primarily value. The spectra of seasonality contain significant 23-kyr power, explaining 26% of the total variance in 3:46% n=257 z in and a minimum in or 3.1øC if the cold stage 6 is excluded). in V30-40 and RC24-16 controlled 0 2? only of the other two a small variance. The four dominant assemblages are the tropical, transitional, divergence, and subpolar as described by Kipp [1976] and Molfino et al., [1982]. We use Kipp's criteria but have changed one name, substituting the term "divergence.. for "gyre." This was done because the biogeography of the three dominant species in the assemblage is associated oceanic upwelling regions in low The first the with and divergence latitudes. stage mechanism in understanding responsible for the equatorial mixed-layer response documented by SST and assemblages involves establishing the relationship between biota and oceanography. Each assemblage is composed of ecologically related foraminiferal species. Factor analysis, which assemblages, defines does not oceanographfic control the we must rely these specify parameters groupings. on studies the that To do that, of the living biota. sophisticated Development of sampling methods [Wiebe et al., a generalized 1976] has established ecology for the species the living equatorial thermocline in the mixed layer Atlantic. partitions The the euphotic of Mcintyre et al.' 28 Surface Water Response to Orbital V25-59 (øC) • 5 I • V30-40 (øC) 9 I 1 • 5 I • Forcing RC24-16 (øC) 5 9 I 9 20 40 60 AGE 80 100 120 140 160 180_ 200_ 220- 240- 260 Fig. 5. from Tw at 1-kyr basin core V25-59. zone into Seasonality, an upper (warm) lower (cool) environment. of this stratification, logical terms to treat of both temperature. species live water above in degrees intervals. the depth the and the waters thermocline. thermocline. in the equatorial to the nutrient associated or Divergence species region and with variation of the variation involves Tc western in vertical 1986; . the displacement and slope change due to seasonal wind forcing of surface water species within computed by subtracting minimal The annual thermocline in Tropical assemblage in the warmest surface adapted conditions Because is it Celsius, the 1980; Reynolds and Thunell, Thunell and Reynolds, 1984] and a ecology Transitional and subpolar prefer cooler temperatures below Note are food the thermocline. The divergence assemblage is defined by a number of species whose optima are associated with the thermocline in tropical regions [Be and Tolderlund, 1971; Fairbanks, et al., 1982; Fairbanks and Wiebe, 1980; Fairbanks, et al., (see equatorial conceptual explains variation advection ratios. is associated across variation produce the section on surface oceanography). cartoon (Figure 6) how the annual thermocline and changes in heat could modify assemblage Since maximum productivity the with nutrient thermocline, in thermocline alternation in dominance. When the flux the seasonal depth can assemblage thermocline ascends, assemblages adapted to lower temperatures will flourish. The reverse thermocline occurs descends. when the A Mcintyre et Table 4. al.' Surface The Four Water Response Foraminiferal Assemblages That Control Estimated SST and the Dominant Species That Define These Assemblages in the Equatorial Cores AS SEMBLAGE FORAMIN IFERA to Orbital Forcing assemblage (Figures 7a,b,c) that monitors this response and the estimated SST (Figure 3) should resemble each other. Spectral analysis highlights the changing response of each assemblage along this equatorial traverse and indicates which assemblage is responsible Gl obi gerinoi Tropical des ruber (white) sacculifer (no sac) Globigerina falconensis Globorotalia inflata Neogl oboquadrina Divergence dutertrei Globorotalia Pulleniatina menardii obliquiloculata Globigerinoides sacculifer (no that for the characterize spectral each core's periods SST signal (Figure 8). In the eastern core RC24-16 (Figures 7c and 8), the tropical and transitional assemblages each contain the 23-kyr period and are coherent with each other and in phase, but with the opposite sign. The divergence assemblage shows minimal variability and lacks significant spectral power at the primary orbital periods. The subpolar assemblage contains significant spectral peaks, but the power is very low. The signal Globigerinoides Transitional 29 sac) Globigerinoides sacculifer (with Globorotalia sac) turnida Globigerina bulloides Globigerinita glutinata Neogl oboqua dri n a pachyderma ( dext ral Neogl oboqua dri n a pa ch yderma / Subpolar ) Tr0pical > Divergence > Transiti0naI > Subp0iar dutertreii 16 22 28 intergrade Terminology, assemblages, component species are from [1976], Molfino et al. [1982], this paper. and Kipp and +DIVERGENCE Tropical = Divergence > Transitional > Subpolar 16 this process an analogue for the past? During times of climatically induced increase in wind-forced divergence, does the divergence assemblage predominate (Figure 6b)? Alternatively, or in concert, a change in heat advection into the equatorial region would effect the biota; for example, a 22 28 Is decrease in heat would favor an increase in assemblages adapted to cooler temperatures (Figure 6c). Both effects decrease from east to west along the equator today. If the seasonal forcing of thermocline geometry and divergence intensity model, is then the the correct time descriptive series of the +DIVERGENCE - HEAT ADVECTION Tropical '"Transitional _>divergence > Subpolar Fig. 6. Relative dominance of the foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial Atlantic for three possible oceanographic configurations. These cartoons are (a) modern, (b) increased divergence and thermocline shallowing due to increased trade wind forcing, and (c) with increased increased cool water divergence. advection 30 Mcintyre et al.- Surface Water Response to Orbital V25-59 TROPICAL TRANSITIONAL 1.0 0.4 0.0 •1 DIVERGENCE 0.5 Forcing 0.1 SUBPOLAR 0.6 0.0 0.4 20- 40 60 AGE k.a. 80 • oo 120 • 40 Fig. 7. V30-40 range Foraminiferal assemblage and (c) RC24-16. of 0 to 1. character of these The latter assemblages does dependent solely record is not support a model on divergence the lack of assemblages, RC24-16 not this for the reason for period in the other when the V30-40 and records were truncated to an equivalent age range (0-128 ka), they still produced significant 23kyr spectral power. This analysis demonstrates that the character of the time signal of each assemblage often markedly, intercore the 23-kyr period is not series series changes, and that unique to for represent three two variability for signal genesis. All four assemblages in V30-40 (Figure 7b) contain significant 23-kyr spectral power (Figure 8). In V2559, only the divergence assemblage contains significant spectral power at 23 kyr (Figures 7a and 8). The short time X axes (a) Factor cores V25-59, (b) loadings, contain with a well-defined 23- kyr periods, but the assemblages responsible and the percent variance accounted for by each assemblage change intercore. Cross-spectral analyses of assemblages with estimated SST in each core statistically determine which assemblages exert primary control of estimated SST. In statistical terms, a comparison of the SST and assemblage signals should yield a high r and, for shared periodicities, high k and an in-phase relationship (Table 5). In RC24-16 the tropical In transitional and assemblages V30-40, all control assemblages SST. exert control, but the divergence assemblage has the lowest correlation with Tc. In V25-59, accounted for by the 23-kyr period (Figure 8) in the transitional assemblage decreases from 36% in relationships are not well defined. Only the divergence assemblage contains a significant spectral peak, 23 kyr, but it has low coherency with both Tc and Tw signals. The explanation for this RC24-16 lack any one assemblage. west, the fraction to 28% in From east of variance V30-40 V25-59, while in the assemblage the 23-kyr increases in V30-40 to to 8% in from 6% in RC24-16 to 46% in V25-59. of stable divergence period to All 23% western stability late in definition thermal involves character the of the equatorial Atlantic. When is destroyed, as occurred isotope stage 6, the Mcintyre et al.- Surface Water Response to Orbital Forcing v3o-4o TROPICAL 0.2 TRANSITIONAL 1.0 0.0 b DIVERGENCE 0.7 I o I 0.0 SUBPOLAR 0.7 , , 31 , 0.0 I 20 40 60 80 lOO 120 AGE k.a. •4o 16o 180 2oo 220 24o 260 Fig. foraminiferal momentarily character in the 7. assemblages assume the assemblage and enhanced response seen eastern basin cores. in divergence conjecture one the in the west. that there is climate/ocean modulates vary the mixed east the atmospheric chemistry, carbon dioxide, is only documented for part of this time interval [Barnola et al., 1987], include changes to constant which We more inconstant [Eddy, 1983], but for which no documentation or acceptable theory exists to derive a history mechanism precessional ecology of history of specifically we refrain from adding this control to our study. Nor is it possible to In summary, the assemblages responsible for the 23-kyr period change from tropical and transitional (continued) than that forcing to equatorial commensurate Plausible layer. in we with causes the know our of solar to be records. the observed variations in the mixed layer of the signals could be (1) insolation in situ, (2) monsoon modulation of insolation forcing, (3) trade wind modulation of insolation forcing, and (4) changes in heat content of water advected from high latitudes. These will be the topics we discuss, in sequence, in the ensuing subsections. First, insolation in situ is shown to be unsatisfactory as an explanation for the documented responses. Second, the operation, in concert, of climate forced equatorial Atlantic. the variations SIGNAL CAUSE A significant assemblage part of variation is in narrow bands coherent centered periods, translated SST and with, and on, the primary orbital dominated by precession. The mystery resides induced the concentrated variations into heat in how orbitally in insolation and are biotal Because in monsoon/trade wind 32 Mcintyre et al.: Surface Water Response to Orbital RC24-16 TROPICAL C TRANSITIONAL 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 Forcing DIVERGENCE 0,1 SUBPOLAR 0.7 0.0 0.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 AGE 12o 140 - 160 180 200 _ 220 240 Fig. intensity and advection is as an acceptable mechanism explain the signals. Insolation in 7. presented to (continued) and (5) correlation situ the Precession is the dominant centered in most suggests on the 23-kyr period insolation in r=0.53 k=0.92 Tc lags with i.e., interval level. beneath autumn (August-October) This suggests that the much of its heat within 10øS latitude. these cores analyzed signals latitude were obtains the zone The Tc signals cross-spectrally with five integrated band. SEC 0 ø- from insolation over this These insolation signals are the (1) annual, (2) boreal summer half year (AprilSeptember), (3) boreal summer quarter year (May-July), (4) boreal winter half year (October-March), phasing Tc or the phase it exceeds the confid•_•ce The for by •1.9 kyr. All other insolation signals are either negatively acceptance SEC. and, and phase insolation To determine if the 23 kyr period is a direct response to local insolation, we have used cores RC2416 and V30-40, which are sited the year This negative that correlated too large, situ. quarter Tc, period, -31 ¸ . indicates signals (SST, assemblages) a direct response to winter with 23-kyr equals insolation forcing in low latitudes. The presence of strong spectral peaks boreal (November-January). The boreal summer (austral winter) half-year insolation has the highest positive The phasing insolation July) is of at the boreal -48 ¸, while boreal June through When we refer signal in the summer that refers to boreal summer this a for (midmonth September). summer discussion, compilation. signal boreal documented on We compiled signal for boreal ensuing (May- is 43¸. appropriate summer midmonth to 95% quarterly for insolation to yield the SST response is centered meteorological summer. a quarter-year insolation calendric is when This cross- it Mcintyre et al.' Surface Water Response to Orbital TROPICAL TRANSITIONAL DIVERGENCE 0.10 0.16 Forcing 33 SUBPOLAR 0.0323:46% 0.04 V25-59 0.02 0.08 0 ß05 ß 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 V30-40 :38% 00:37% 23:29% 100:30% 100:20% 23:23% 0.3 O. 12 0.0, , , 0.09 , -, 0.00__, 0.44 100:31% 0.4 , • , 0.00 23:36% 0.09 , , 0.00 0.2 0.0.5 0.0 0.1 RC24-16 0.02 0.01 0.1 ß 100:15% 0.2 0.0 , 23:25% 0:20% 0.00' 0.0 , ,• i 0.03- 0.10 75:29% :29% 0.22 , V 0.00 [ '• 0.00 , 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 I 0.0 , 0.1 • 0.2 FREQUENCY (cycles/ka) Fig. with 8. the Spectra for each assemblage plotted in Figures dominant period(s) indicated and their percent accounted spectrally for within analyzed signal 23-kyr yields period, equals -0.4 ¸. each to the An The alternate is to isolate spectrum. V30-40 r=0.623 and, for the k=0.921 and phase same statistics for RC24-16 are r=0.606, and phase equals 3.6 ¸ . check from both filtering techniques, content controlled from the September mean the by mixed in situ for layer, and compare of insolation June at core heat insolation in summer. V25-59, which does not from contain any significant power at the 23-kyr period, or by the thermodynamics of the system. RC24-16 power 10øS in- is This simple answer is not supported either by the results by The the periodic signals, window [Blackman and Tukey, 1958] and compared to the same component filtered SST, a proxy of boreal them. The 23-kyr component in V3040 was filtered using a Hanning through They are in phase. correlation a discrete component latitude. simplest answer based on these phase relationships is that equatorial k=0.924, on 7a, b, and c variance equator at V25-59, Tw signals the the 41-kyr annual V30-40, contain period. insolation and spectral At the range 3• Mcintyre Table 5. Correlation et al.- and Surface Water Response to Orbital Forcing Statistics Versus Cross-Spectral SST Signals of Assemblages , Core Assemblage Equation Correlation Coherence Coefficient Phase k r V25-59 V30-40 RC24-16 All means tropical Tw 0. 425 0. 774 141 ø transitional Tc Tw Tc 0. 666 0. 024 0.876 0. 480 0. 714 0.839 43 ø -77 ø -170 ø divergence Tw 0. 484 0. 402 Tc 0.178 0.101 subpolar Tw 0.139 0.334 Tc 0.775 0.698 tropical Tc 0. 827 0. 979 transitional Tc 0. 772 0. 959 170 ø divergence subpolar tropical Tc Tc Tc 0. 413 0. 782 0. 844 0. 960 0. 930 0. 900 167 ø 17 6ø 7ø transitional Tc 0.952 0.975 -179 divergence subpolar Tc Tc 0. 377 0. 679 0. 441 0. 650 -17 5 ø 16 ø k and phase values that the assemblage refer lags to the SST. annual contains period. these Tw insolation significant example, the 41-kyr phase insolation signal equals 61ø. insolation warming oceanic mixed layer temperature in situ. of the diffusion through would range SST phasing gives an in- the documented of >9øC and control through seasonal with the mixed- time. variation boreal and lags that in the the mixed- modern correlation summer insolation. In boreal summer, SST is lowered not by a change in received insolation but by the shallowing of the thermocline. This is a process that is controlled by changes in the velocity of the trade winds forced by insolation. The cooler water that upwells during divergence is brought to the equator by advection from high latitudes. the and the annual range to [Schneider and Thompson, presumed forcing signal of boreal summer insolation and the response of SST, the Tc signal, indicates changes ø phase but regular leads insolation suggest mechanisms ø -7 ø nonlinear Thus layer of -170 seasonality other The of 1988] a layer divergence is analogue to explain to 1979; Kutzbach and Otto-Bliesner, 1982; Kutzbach and Gallimore, A detailed comparison of the in the small of Tc to 0¸ the reduce is value. changes The weak spectral due to insolation The thermal inertia surface ocean and the <0.25øC <0.1øC phase the 41-kyr period in in all three cores is not there ø -89 ø A negative relationship of signal which, when averaged, only the obliquity, 41-kyr, Cross-spectral analysis of signals with annual at 0 ¸ yields no relationship; for for V30-40, r=0.06 and, for period, k=0.05 and the power found at the Tw signals seasonal at period. that is small, for, although the Sun at zenith is placed over each hemisphere for half the year, the zenith angle over the equator varies only slightly. However, this oscillation cancels precession; thus the 23-kyr 78 ø -158 We explore these mechanisms in the alternative next three subsections. . Monsoon The RC24-16 Tc signals may record in V30-40 changes and in Mcintyre et al.' Surface Water Response thermocline dynamics and divergence, modulated by trade wind velocity. The modern annual cycle is the analogue. One manner of altering trade wind velocity in the equatorial Atlantic, over time intervals longer cycle, is intensity. via changes in monsoon Monsoons decrease the zonal trade than winds in (austral winter) convergence over land the Table is From of gradient minus 20os value for greater this mid the the positive more lags intense to the boreal summer 20øN. These the monsoon. by only two 7.4 ¸, RC24- and these two both that by minima. in boreal to the maximum with and and for time the meridional and component of [COHMAP Members, produce a marked monsoon. [1982], [1983], Street-Perrott [1985] demonstrated that the maximum monsoon climate and attendant wet periods of Africa, centered on 9 ka, monsoon effect, then time perihelion is aligned boreal summer, there should be a seasonality minimum in SST. The time series of V30-40 encompasses 0260 ka; within this interval, this alignment of perihelion with boreal summer occurred 11 times, and there are 10 well-defined seasonality minima (Table 6). The chronologic in the core is +2.5 kyr. but two of the data pairs within this envelope. discrepancies, >0.9 summer by a North African Otto-Bliesner and Roberts Kutzbach One trade-wind strengthened Kutzbach and Street-Perrott the kyr, data and modeling convergence over increased resolution velocity outside +2.5 decreased the zonal trade wind velocity 1988]. This should All of fall lag slightly behind maximum insolation at 11 ka (perihelion aligned with June). For this at regular way to minimize seasonality is diminish divergence by reducing values envelope, 16, and these signals are punctuated component - 29.5 63.5 81.5 101 122 .5 151.5 174 .5 194 224 - cores. every function V30-40 Only resolution the ~0.5 change a zonal , diminution in equatorial divergence. If this scenario is an analogue for SST seasonality monitors the in annual SST range, primarily intervals ka RC24-16 59.5 82 102 122 148.5 173.5 194 223 239 Africa of kyr. This is less than the computational error; thus the two signals are in phase. There is further evidence linking the SST signal with monsoon control. in Minima, 11 interval indicate signals of the 23-kyr are strongly coherent, and the V30-40 Tc filter TC Basin 32 60 82 104 126 149 175 196 220 241 The gradient at of ka with Two Cores insolation and insolation the Seasonality insolation by comparing the 23-kyr component obtained by filtering the signals filtered period k=0.98, Eastern When Summer Maxima) in V30-40 a function ! Tc the Times Boreal Monsoon Minima 11 insolation gradient by 26 ¸ ~1 6 kyr. Further insight can be gained insolation African of in , Cross-spectral analysis of V30-40 Tc to this insolation gradient yields r=0.463. Both signals have strong 23 kyr periods which are coherent, k=0.91, but the Tc signal lags the V30-40 Occurs June, 20øN and 20øS (20øN month Comparison summer June-September). the north, is between 35 Perihelion of received insolation during boreal summer, both annually and on orbital time scales [Riehl, 1979; Kutzbach and Street-Perrott, 1985; Kutzbach and Otto-Bliesner, 1982] . One measure 6. (North by increased the North African intensity Forcing Seasonality mass. Monsoon Orbital Perihelion annual boreal to and significant is the Despite correlation fall these is statistically at the RC24-16 seasonality similar correlation 95th percentile. minima (Table show a 6). The correlation of seasonality minima in equatorial Atlantic SST with perihelion aligned with boreal summer is reinforced by evidence that, at these times, productivity 36 Mcintyre et al.' Surface time of perihelion in with Equatorial surface oceanography is directly controlled by the trade winds. The strength of these winds is a function of the seasonally low-latitude oceanic and continental anticyclones and the monsoonal cyclones over Africa. The surface water response is in Sverdrup balance for times greater than 120 days [Philander, 1979; Reverdin, 1985] . While the geography of continent and ocean is effectively invariant over the late Quaternary, both insolation and albedo varied and thus changed atmospheric forcing of equatorial oceanography. This is proven by the SST signals already described. But are these signals indicative of changes in trade wind orientation or trade wind intensity, or both? Signal variations in V30-40 and RC24-16 are due to changes in the abundance of species adapted to cool waters, reflected in the Tc and seasonality signals. Since insolation in situ does not produce the SST time series by direct absorbance, the simplest explanation is variation in oceanographic divergence. This presumes that annual response to trade wind control is a model applicable to orbitally forced variations. The stronger the Hadley circulation, the more intense the zonal velocity of the trade winds. This leads to greater Eckman drift and increased equatorial divergence. For times maximum Hadley development, there a boreal [1988] Winds intensified decrease in the meridional wind show maximum at If the function for the CLIMAP models the last glacial [1981] have maximum by . Global been used atmosphere of the climate to last simulate glacial simulation their ka. Members for This SST variations of and are a wind-modulated divergence, then the tropical and divergence assemblages should be the best indicators. Their response should be antithetic, with the divergence assemblage characterizing times of high seasonality and cold Tc all values. cores. This is not In RC24-16 the the case in divergence assemblage, which lacks significant 23-kyr power, is not correlative with seasonality, Tc, and the tropical assemblage signals, all of which do have significant 23kyr periods (Figure 7). In V30-40 the divergence assemblage contains the 23 kyr period and varies antithetically with the tropical assemblage. V25-59 should be too far west to discussion divergence one in 23-kyr similar be this core 7). It can transitional assemblages will all included in of divergence, assemblage is with a well-defined be argued that the and subpolar also respond to divergence because lower water temperature. three of these assemblages respond to increased increased abundance, in a yet the the only period and its signal is to that of V30-40 (Figure summary, documented COHMAP in documented increased of is summer. 18 seasonality This been Forcing circumstantial evidence supports trade wind modulation of divergence. should has Orbital 9 ka that the meridional component was stronger while the zonal component was weaker relative to both today and the last glacial vector, with a concomitant increase in aridity in Africa [Riehl, 1979]. scenario to show trade wind zonality as strong or stronger than today, a time when perihelion is aligned with boreal winter. A corollary to this exists in the modeling of the youngest interval when perihelion was aligned boreal summer the eastern equatorial Atlantic lacked a well-developed divergence signature. In essence, seasonal divergence collapses when boreal summer and perihelion are aligned. Trade Response maximum [Gates, 1976; Kutzbach and Guetter, 1986; Manabe and Hahn, 1977; Manabe and Broccoli, 1985; Schneider and Thompson, 1979] . All was lower, indicating a diminution in seasonal divergence. Mix et al., [1986] demonstrated that for the youngest Water be and the are 23-kyr If divergence by their signals They are not correlative. RC24-16 this in V30-40. component In in the divergence assemblage becomes increasingly significant from to west, relative to other east assemblages while within each core, Mcintyre et al.' Surface Water Response to Orbital 37 Forcing Berger, 1978; Flohn, 1978]. This configuration is characterized by an equatorward expansion of Antarctic sea ice and the polar anticyclone. oceanographic divergence, as documented by modern oceanography, has the opposite trend. Windmodulated divergence is a partial explanation for the documented This, in turn, causes an equatorward response. translation westerlies Advection Drift. As the prevailing wind belts move north, so will the northern boundary of the subpolar water mass. If it impinges on the tip of South Africa, cold surface water will be shunted into the Benguela Current, The documented and biota variations may reflect advected heat. in SST modulation The surface by waters of the equatorial Atlantic are part of the mass transport path from south to north which begins with cool surface waters of the Benguela Current, crosses the equatorial zone in the SEC, is deflected northward in the north Brazil and Guiana currents, contributes to the Gulf Stream, and finally drifts and anastomoses into numerous paths in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. Thus the equator is the border across which hemispheric exchange of heat occurs. Because small the ocean, South any Atlantic marked is annual a or long-term variation in surface oceanography must be the result, in part, of external forcing. There is a net flow of South into the evaporation within the runoff is Therefore surface water North exceeds basin, low [Hoflich, the South flow from the precipitation and continental Atlantic the has a While there the extent of North Atlantic [Merle, 1980; Philander and Pacanowski, 1986a], it is clear that the surface water budget is balanced by inflow Indian The the coldest highest correlate and from Pacific and oceans. austral winter concurrent, winter Tc values seasonalities with times i.e., is most precessional and the in our cores when aphelion solstice when intense component are austral because of the insolation is lowest. Since the signal of the precessional component has the same geometry for the same month at all latitudes, boreal summer also has an insolation low. This configuration, minimum summer considered glaciation insolation and for austral to be both winter, conducive [Milankovitch, boreal is to 1941; warm water will be barred Atlantic. The in heat waters content along corridor from should Wind Agulhas entry into the South resulting diminution of the the West the mass be surface transport recorded in the equatorial mixed-layer SST. The transitional and subpolar assemblages have their optima at ~40øS [Kipp, 1976; Molfinoet al., 1982]. If the equatorial SST and seasonality signals contain an advective component, it should be recorded by these assemblages. In RC24-16, the transitional assemblage contains a strong 23 kyr-period and varies antithetically, r=-0.90, with the tropical assemblage. It is in phase with seasonality, r=0.94 and, for the 23-kyr period, k=0.99 and the 1984]. negative water budget. is some question about return from Atlantic, while of the mid-latitude which drive the phase equals 0.0 ¸. In V30-40, both the transitional and subpolar assemblages have well-defined 23 kyr periods and similar relationships to the tropical assemblage and seasonality. This may indicate variation in advected heat, with minima being recorded by the dominance of these assemblages. CLIMAP published maps of modern and last glacial maximum zooplankton biogeography [CLIMAP Project Members, 1981, Maps la and b]; those for the South Atlantic depict foraminiferal assemblages. At the last glacial maximum, the transitional and subpolar assemblages characterize the eastern boundary current (Benguela), and the transitional assemblage dominates the eastern portion of the equatorial Atlantic. N.G. Kipp (personal communication, 1988) has subsequently improved foraminiferal biogeography for the South Atlantic during the last glacial maximum and the result is shown in Figure 9. At 38 Mcintyre 60* FI I I $0' I ! I I I al.' Surface O* I •.-'..."•2.'..:. et I '-- I I I I I Water South I I I I , Response Atlantic considered !iii!>•%.:.:.:.:..•"%::•::.'. O* thermocline water input to the component of Today the South Atlantic this global circulation warm Indian Ocean water Evans, 1986]. Gordon [1986] emphasizes that this is unique for an eastern boundary current, in that the Benguela Current begins with a significant heat addition at high and mesoscale latitudes. [1986b] ß '. circulation 1986]. 45* i'. •"1,5' ;50* 35øS could This affect from mass [Olsen and and Pacanowski flux across the heat transport north. input thermocline I I Africa in eddies Philander that heat note further II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I is a global passing westward around the Agulhas retroflection, O* •'.•.:i!iii! .... of $0' flow " Forcing water component 1985, involves Orbital thermocline one [Gordon, 1,5' to of Indian water is Ocean limited to a narrow passage between Africa and the southern hemisphere subtropical convergence, whose mean latitude is I• POLAR •'•lSUBPOLAR • SUBTROPICAL 41os [Lutjeharms, 1985] . The MARGIN i• GYRE :":'•TRANSITIONAL position of this convergence is controlled by the West Wind Drift, a Fig. 9. Maps of the dominant product of southern hemisphere biogeographic zones of foraminiferal westerly forcing. The width of this assemblages (top) for the modern passage varies between approximately world and (bottom) the last glacial 60* 50' O* maximum after CLIMAP Project Members [1981] and Molfino et al. [1982] . Note that the assemblage transitional dominated the equatorial Atlantic glacial maximum. eastern during the last the last glacial maximum the equatorward translation of cooler waters, optimal for the transitional assemblage, supports our contention that variation in advection of heat is one viable explanation for the assemblage signals in the equatorial cores. These patterns cannot be explained by a general oceanic cooling, because the zonal gradient of estimated SST along 30os is 8oc for the modern versus 11øC for the glacial. This steeper glacial gradient is due to lower SST values in the east [CLIMAP Project Members, 1981, Maps 3a and b], commensurate with the water The water euphotic divergence water mechanism advection from of in that increased glacial rises cold times. into the zone, when equatorial occurs, is thermocline the South Atlantic. 3¸ and 7¸ of latitude as southern hemisphere convergence migrates impetus of seasonal interannual climatic The wider the the advection the subtropical under the and small variations. passage, the into Atlantic. the greater CLIMAP Project Members [1981] showed that during the last glacial maximum both the southern hemisphere subtropical convergence and the southern hemisphere subantarctic front were positioned at lower latitudes south evidence diminution into the of suggests of Atlantic flow Africa. The a marked from Ocean the Indian [Prell et al., 1980]. We have reexamined RC11-86 (35ø47'S, 18ø27'E), positioned southwest of Cape Agulhas, which has SST values core 3.8oc colder at the last glacial maximum than today [CLIMAP Project Members, 1981]. The key to deciphering the response of this region to climate change lies in a comparison of the modern versus glacial foraminiferal assemblages. In RCll-86, analysis of core top sediments representing modern conditions shows that the Mcintyre et al.' Surface Water Response to Orbital Forcing 39 v.•o-ao T• (øc) -2.0 0.0 2..0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 ...... SP[C•AP STACK V•0-97 RC11-120 RC11-120 Fig. 10 Time series plots of 23-kyr filter signals of V30-40 Tc (solid curves) versus the northern hemisphere signals of the SPECMAP oxygen isotope stack and V30-97 Tc and the southen hemisphere signals of Cycladophora symbols ) . transitional 72% and the foraminiferal last glacial indicative warm surface the dominates assemblage 32% foraminifera total the accounts for RCll- 86. Today, this degree of cold assemblage dominance is present between the southern hemisphere subtropical convergence and the southern hemisphere subantarctic front in the West Wind Drift. If we use modern biogeography as an analogue for the glacial surface water scenario, then this subtropical convergence was displaced equatorward and the West Wind Drift collided with South Africa. This would have blocked Agulhas advection into the South Atlantic colder the subpolar reduction consider assemblage reflects, in that surface Current, heat the signal in part, waters into a in RC24-16 variation We higher southern latitudes. PHASING We have presented evidence that SST and assemblage signals are the product of variation in equatorial divergence and heat advection from higher southern latitudes. The relationship of the equatorial response to a specific hemisphere's insolation forcing can be tested using the precession component, which dominates these equatorial time series. We cannot make a similar study using the obliquity component, because it is poorly defined in our equatorial signals. We have 10) compared and phase This the is length (0-257 record heat (Figure comparison filtering in from with 23-kyr period with 23-kyr signals from both hemispheres and present the results in both the time (Figure producing content. transitional advection (curves in the V30-40 Tc signal periods in high-latitude and would have injected Benguela RCll-120 are 50% and in core RESPONSE water subpolar at transitional of Tw from fauna. During the maximum, assemblages instead, assemblage and assemblage accounts for tropical for 20% of the of absent; davisiana operation, 11) domains. constrained by ka) . The which extracts a discrete rhythm, uses a weighted moving average. The V30-40 23-kyr 40 Mcintyre et al.' Surface Water filtered that of and the 0o -27 ø -50 ø Response to Orbital Forcing signal consistently leads the SPECMAP isotope signal V30-97 Tw (Figure 10). The phases for this comparison presented in a phase clock 11) and show that V30-40 are (Figure leads oxygen isotopes by •2.7 kyr and V3097 SST by ~6.3 kyr. This phasing precludes a major forcing role for the high-latitude northern hemisphere in the equatorial _96 ø Atlantic. -164 ø Fig. 11. The phasing between the 23-kyr filtered signals (figure 10) and minimum winter, at insolation perihelion the in in 0 ¸ position) austral December plotted (line on a phase clock. Time is clockwise; thus all signals lag that of insolation by the values, in degrees, printed next to each signal. filtered signal therefore begins at 66.5 ka and ends at 193 ka (126 kyr long), which encompasses greater than five precessional cycles. While the records encompass different lengths of time, we have extracted their 23-kyr filter signals from the same record length and age interval and used the same statistical parameters (lag, window, etc.) as for V30-40. Northern hemisphere control is assessed using two signals. We have computed the 23-kyr filtered signal from the SPECMAP stack of oxygen isotopes [Imbrie et al., 1984] which predominantly records volumetric change in northern hemisphere continental of ice. northern contained The second hemisphere in the measure climate estimated SST latter artifactual latitudes values have variation in Antarctic hemisphere sea ice, albedo the southern equivalent of hemisphere continental northern areal extent of ice. Fig. 12. (Opposite) Paleoisotherm reconstructions, in degrees celsius, of the equatorial and South Atlantic which schematically delineate the response to posited mechanisms. In all figures the solid arrows are surface winds, and the open arrows surface currents. Figure 12a represents June perihelion at 9 ka, characterized by high austral winter insolation. The maximum, is and minimal. monsoon is equatorial The SST at its divergence contours are derived from Mix [1985], CLIMAP Project Members, [1981, 1984], and this paper. The southward displacement of the southern hemisphere subtropical convergence (open dashed line) permits the Agulhas to export warm surface waters into the Atlantic. Figure 12c depicts the seasonality for time, and the solid circles this are the is additional in reconstruction. Figure 12b represents December perihelion at 136 ka, characterized by low austral winter insolation. Divergence is strong and the equatorward displacement of the southern hemisphere subtropical convergence core V30-97 (41ø00'N, 32ø55.5'W), which contains significant spectral power at the 23-kyr period [Ruddiman and Mcintyre, 1981, 1984] . V30-97 Tw, rather than Tc, is used because the Southern hemisphere control is assessed using signals similar to those of the northern hemisphere. Unfortunately, there are no time series which directly measure the an lower limit at high [Ruddiman and Mcintyre, has cores lowered heat used in advection this in the 1984]. Benguela Current. seasonality for Figure this time. The phase relationship of V30-40 Tc to the northern hemisphere is critical to defining oceanographic response. The V30-40 Tc 23-kyr circles additional used to modify the CLIMAP [1982] last glacial maximum reconstruction to make these maps of 136 ka. are the 12d shows The solid cores Mcintyre et al.' 60* Surface 45* Water Response 30* 15' to Orbital O* Forcing 15' 30* 0ø 15ø 30 ø 45 ø 0o 15ø 30 ø 45 ø 0o 15ø 0o 15' 60ø 45ø ;50ø 15ø O* 15ø .50ø Mcintyre We have the substituted davi$iana which Antarctic C. 120 used variations is the from Hays, signal core RCll- This core construction SPECMAP isotope al., same to 79ø52'E). in in to part, 1980; Morley and The 23-kyr filtered davi$iana stack 1986] and chronology Surface Cycladophora considered in ice (43ø31'S, was is least sea [Morley, 1983]. of species at al.' fluctuations radiolarian respond, et of the [Imbrieet therefore has as V30-40. the The phase relationship with the southern hemisphere shows that the V30-40 Tc 23-kyr filter slightly lags that of C. davi$iana for the interval 193-112 ka while slightly leading at 86-66 ka (Figure 10). There are three possible causes for the variable phasing of V30-40 to C. davisiana' (1) chronology error, (2) change in precessional forcing, and (3) nonlinear response of C. davisiana. Chronology error can be ignored, as the V30-40 and RCll-120 isotopes were used to construct the SPECMAP isotope stack from which the chronology was derived. Within the time spanned by these filters there is some minor variation precessional correlative in period, with but the C. it filter signal. We are left presumption of a nonlinear of C. davisiana to climatic/oceanographic cannot be directly the available is not davisiana with the response Antarctic forcing determined which from evidence. As in the northern hemisphere test, we have chosen a high-latitude estimated Tw signal, in this case RCll-120, and filtered it for the 23-kyr component. The Tc 23-kyr filtered signal of V30-40 lags the RCll-120 Tw 23-kyr filter which, given the resolution by 1.7 ø, of our chronology, means that V30-40 and RCll-120 SST are in phase (Figures 10 and 11). In summary, V30-40 SST is in phase with or lags slightly Water Response to Orbital Forcing which modulate the response of equatorial Atlantic to orbital forcing (principally the precessional component). Two, rely on southern hemisphere insolation, are (1) trade wind zonality which controls Ekman pumping (divergence) and (2) advection from high southern latitudes which budget. northern controls The third, hemisphere the the which heat which relies insolation, on is monsoon convergence over North Africa, which controls trade wind meridionality. Two end-member scenarios explain the process (Figure 12) . When perihelion is aligned summer, summer maximum over North same low to time at and (Figure (austral middle boreal is Africa monsoon dominates the with insolation 12a). At winter) latitudes a the of in the southern hemisphere, the insolation gradient is steep, insolation is high, and the southern hemisphere subtropical convergence is furthest south permitting warm Indian Ocean water entry into the Atlantic (Figure 12a) . Northward advection of heat is enhanced in the Benguela Current. The equator, is divergence, result, at the a time of minimal productivity, and seasonality, with the warmest equatorial SST. The isotherm (austral winter) and seasonality maps (Figures 12a and 12c) are reconstructions for 9 ka using core data from Mix et al., [1986], COHMAP members [1988], and this study. The temperature range the equator Seasonality (Figure is very 12c) is only 4øC along 12a). low (Figure . When aphelion austral is winter aligned (insolation with minimum), the southern hemisphere control dominates (Figure 12b) . During austral middle winter latitudes at low latitudes in the southern to the southern hemisphere's response to orbital forcing and leads the northern hemisphere's response to orbital forcing by a large amount. hemisphere, the insolation gradient is the insolation is EQUATORIAL Atlantic RESPONSE MODEL low, and the subtropical convergence is furthest north, minimizing heat input from the Indian Ocean into the of We have devised a descriptive model involving three mechanisms shallow, heat Ocean. in Northward the reduced. At zonal velocity the Benguela same of the advection Current time, trade the winds is is Mcintyre et strongest al.- Surface because the Water North Response African monsoon is weakest, since perihelion is aligned with boreal winter. The result, at the equator, is a time of maximum divergence, productivity, and seasonality, with the coolest SST. This can be seen in the SST isotherm map for austral winter during isotopic stage 6 (Figure 12b). This reconstruction utilizes the estimated SST from this study and CLIPLAP Project Members, [1984] to modify the CLIPLAP last glacial maximum isotherms in the equatorial Atlantic (added core positions shown in Figure the 12d); isotherms outside are the of same this zone as published by CLIPLAP Project Members, [1981] . The increased divergence and consequent thermocline shallowing are well defined by the seasonality isotherm pattern for isotopic stage 6, in which the zone of maximum seasonality is centered on 10øW (Figure 12d), the center of maximum divergence [Philander and Pacanowski, 1986a] . to Orbital 4. Variation periods. 2. Southern hemisphere climate change exerts a greater influence on the equatorial Atlantic at orbital frequencies than does that of the northern hemisphere. SST and foraminiferal assemblage signals are in phase with, or slightly lag, variations in southern SST but lead high-latitude hemisphere SST and ice The mechanisms hemisphere northern volume. which modulate orbital forcing to produce the equatorial SST signals are ascribed to variations in trade wind velocity and heat advection from high southern latitudes. When aphelion is aligned with austral winter, trade wind zonality, equatorial divergence, and heat advection are at a maximum. When perihelion is aligned with boreal summer, the North thus are African monsoon divergence at a in circulation South minimum. dominates; and heat advection heat between Atlantic advection the Indian oceans. and Perihelion in boreal summer equates with maximum, while aphelion in austral winter equates with minimum, heat advection. 5. The data and descriptive models in this paper indicate that the short-period variation of the annual cycle is only a partial analogue for the response of the equatorial Atlantic at longer orbital periods. It is an analogue for the response produced by changes in trade wind velocity but not the response due to variations in advected heat. 6. The variations advection orbital question of whether in interhemispheric in time data. 1. The SST response of the mixed layer of the equatorial Atlantic to orbital forcing is partitioned into a western region of temporal stability and an eastern region of marked variation at precessional 43 northward into the equatorial Atlantic is controlled by orbitally forced changes in atmosphere/ocean dynamics of the southern hemisphere, which modulates, primarily at the precessional period, the thermocline the Atlantic scales cannot unequivocally CONCLUSIONS 3. Forcing We response advection Atlantic lowest answered heat occur be with demonstrate that our the records changes in into the equatorial at orbital periods. heat advection is on SEC heat The correlative with aphelion in austral winter, times of maximum glaciation. The equatorial signal of this effect is mirrored in South Atlantic along the Benguela and Imbrie, 1987; press, 1989] and Aghulas retroflection have half an orbitally answer: forced APPENDIX there of into in the We are variations northward advection South Atlantic and equatorial cores axis [Mcintyre Imbrie et al., from a core at (RCll-86). in heat the in the Atlantic. A. ESTIMATED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Estimated sea temperatures, cold, Tc, SST, equations their respective estimated ages Estimates were surface for are warm, listed Tw, and with depths and (Table A1) . computed from the FA20 equation which is archived in the Specmap Archive 1 [1989] . Mcintyre Table A1. Estimated et al.' Surface Water Sea Surface Response Table to A1. Orbital Forcing (continued) Temperatures " Depth, cm Age, ka Tw,øC Depth, cm Age, ka ! V25-59 V25-59 0.0 1.50 2.5 5.0 2.26 7.5 10.0 12.5 3.01 3.77 15.0 4.52 5.28 6.04 !7.5 6.79 20.0 22.5 7.55 25.0 25.0 27.5 9.06 9.06 30.O 32.5 32.5 35.O 37.5 8.30 9.52 9.98 10.45 10.45 10.91 11.86 4O.O 12.94 42.5 14.02 45.0 15.02 47.5 16.01 50.0 17.01 52.5 18.00 55.0 60.0 62.5 19.00 19.60 20.20 20.80 67.5 22.00 7O.O 22.60 72.5 72.5 75.0 102.5 105.0 107.5 23.20 23.20 23.80 24.40 25.00 25.60 26.20 26.80 27.40 28.00 28.93 29.85 30.78 31.70 32.63 33.56 57.5 77.5 80.0 82.5 85.0 87.5 90.0 92.5 95.0 97.5 100.0 110.0 34.48 112.5 35.41 115.0 117.5 36.33 37.26 120.0 38.19 120.0 122.5 38.19 39.11 125.0 40.04 Tc,øC Tw,øC Tc,øC (continued) 127.5 40.96 28.2 23.5 27.5 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.6 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.2 24.9 130.0 132.5 135.0 137.5 140.0 142.5 41.89 42.81 43.74 44.67 45.59 46.52 27.0 27.4 27.2 27.5 27.1 26.5 23.3 27.4 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.4 26.9 25.8 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.9 26.3 27.1 27.6 26.8 27.2 27.4 26.9 27.8 27.8 26.4 25.1 24.7 24.8 24.6 24.3 24.5 24.3 24.5 23.8 24.4 23.6 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.4 24.7 24.1 23.0 24.2 23.6 24.4 23.5 24.0 23.8 145.0 147.5 150.0 152.5 155.0 157.5 160.0 162.5 165.0 167.5 170.0 172.5 175.0 177.5 180.0 182.5 185.0 187.5 190.0 192.5 195.0 197.5 200.0 200.0 47.44 48.37 49.30 50.22 51.15 52.07 53.00 54.09 55.18 56.27 57.36 58.45 59.55 60.64 61.73 62.82 63.91 65.00 65.31 65.63 65.94 66.26 66.57 66.57 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.6 27.6 26.9 26.8 27.1 26.8 26.4 27.3 27.0 26.3 26.7 27.5 27.1 27.6 27.4 27.0 28.3 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.0 26.5 26.9 26.2 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.9 24.0 24.0 23.3 23.2 23.2 24.2 23.2 24.3 24.3 202.5 205.0 207.5 210.0 212.5 215.0 217.5 220.0 222.5 66.89 67.20 68.15 69.10 70.05 71.00 72.29 73.57 74.86 26.0 27.3 26.4 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.7 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.6 23.7 23.5 23.9 225.0 227.5 230.0 76.14 77.43 78.71 26.7 27.0 26.2 26.8 27.4 26.0 27.1 26.7 27.6 27.2 26.9 23.6 23.8 23.2 23.5 23.7 22.5 23.1 22.8 232.5 235.0 237.5 240.0 242.5 245.0 247.5 250.0 80.00 80.88 81.75 82.63 83.50 84.38 85.25 86.13 26.5 26.9 27.1 26.5 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.4 26.8 26.9 26.8 22.9 23.4 23.6 22.9 252.5 255.0 257.5 260.0 87.00 87.92 88.83 89.75 26.2 26.7 26.9 26.6 23.9 23.5 23.6 23.8 23.0 23.7 22.4 23.9 23.0 23.1 23.6 23.8 23.6 23.9 23.9 23.7 24.4 24.0 23.8 24.4 24.3 25.1 25.5 24.2 24.7 24.5 23.9 24.2 24.1 23.4 22.7 24.3 23.3 23.9 23.9 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.6 23.8 23.9 24.5 24.6 24.2 24.4 24.7 24.3 24.5 24.1 23.9 24.2 24.3 Mcintyre et al.' Table Surface A1. Water Response to Orbital Depth, cm Table (continued) , Forcing A1. 45 (continued) , Age, ka V25-59 Tw, øC Tc,øC Depth, cm V25-59 (continued) 262.5 265.0 267.5 270.0 272.5 90.67 91.58 92.50 93.42 94.33 26.4 26.8 26.2 26.8 27.0 23.7 23.9 23.7 275.0 277.5 280.0 280.0 282.5 285.0 95.25 95.79 96.32 96.32 96.86 97.39 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.6 26.8 24.3 287.5 290.0 292.5 295.0 297.5 300.0 302.5 305.0 307.5 310.0 312.5 315.0 317.5 320.0 322.5 97.93 98.46 99.00 100.14 101.29 102.43 103.57 104.71 105.86 107.00 109.00 111.00 113.00 114.13 115.25 26.2 26.4 26.5 27.0 26.8 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.0 27.9 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.5 27.1 325.0 327.5 330.0 116.38 117.50 118.63 27.1 26.7 26.4 332.5 119.75 27.1 335.0 337.5 340.0 342.5 345 . 0 347.5 350.0 352.5 355.0 357.5 360.0 362.5 365.0 367.5 370.0 372.5 375.0 377.5 380.0 382.5 385.0 387.5 390.0 392.5 120.88 122.00 123.20 124.40 125 . 60 126.80 128.00 128.39 128.78 129.17 129.56 129.94 130.33 130.72 131.11 131.50 132.40 133.29 134.19 135.09 135.98 136.88 137.78 138.67 26.8 27.5 26.2 26.2 26 . 5 25.9 26.3 26.1 25.5 26.0 26.6 26.5 25.0 25.1 25.9 25.5 25.7 26.7 27.3 26.2 26.4 27.2 26.1 27.6 395.0 397.5 400.0 Tw, øC Age,ka Tc,øC (continued) 139.57 142 .79 146.00 27.8 27.2 28.3 22.1 20.7 23.0 23.5 24.2 24.1 23.8 24.3 24.1 24.0 23.8 24.1 24.1 23.7 24.6 24.1 V30-40 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 25.4 22.6 10.29 24.7 22.4 1.50 27.0 2.63 27.1 23.9 24.1 3.75 4.88 6.00 27.0 24.1 26.8 24.6 26.7 23.4 23.7 6.86 26.7 7.71 26.0 24.0 8.57 26.1 23.6 9.43 30 11.14 24.5 23.4 23.5 33 36 12.00 24.0 23.4 23.5 23.5 23.2 23.2 22.4 23.3 24.2 23.7 24.2 24.2 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 24.1 24.7 24.4 23.8 24.0 72 75 78 81 84 23.6 23.8 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.9 23.0 87 90 93 96 99 102 105 21.9 108 21.9 21.0 19.4 20.4 20.4 111 114 117 120 123 21.5 20.0 20.1 19.7 19.3 21.0 126 129 132 135 138 141 24.4 22.6 21.9 21.8 13.36 24.9 22.8 14.05 23.7 21.5 14.73 23.2 21.3 12. 68 15.41 25.0 20.7 16.09 24.6 20.0 16.78 25.2 19.5 17.46 27.1 19.3 18.13 18.78 25.0 18.4 27.2 19.0 19.44 24.0 18.2 20.09 20.75 21.40 24.0 25.2 18.4 26.3 24.2 23.5 25.1 23.1 23.3 20.8 21.87 22.35 22.82 23.29 23.76 24.62 25.85 27.09 28.32 29.55 30.79 32.02 33.26 34.49 35.72 36.96 38.19 39.43 40.66 41.89 43.13 44.36 26.9 24.0 23.6 24.1 22.9 28.4 27.4 25.0 23.8 28.0 24.1 27.3 25.1 24.6 27.2 23.9 24.0 19.4 20.8 20.4 21.0 19.6 20.2 22.7 20.2 19.8 19.8 20.3 22.9 21.4 19.3 19.0 21.1 19.7 22.2 19.5 18.6 21.3 18.8 18.1 •6 Mcintyre Table Depth, cm A1. Age, ka et al.' Surface Water Response to Orbital (continued) Tw, øC Table Tc, øC A1. Depth, cm Age, ka Forcing (continued) Tw, øC Tc, øC , V30-40 144 45.60 147 46.83 48.06 150 153 49.30 156 165 50.53 51.77 53.00 53.86 168 54.71 171 55.57 174 56.43 57.29 159 162 177 180 183 186 189 192 195 58.14 201 59.00 60.50 62.00 63.50 65.00 66.38 67.77 204 207 70.54 198 69.15 210 71.54 213 72.34 216 219 222 73.96 74.76 73.15 225 75.57 228 231 76.37 234 237 240 243 246 249 252 255 77.18 77.99 78.79 79.60 80.54 81.62 82.69 83.77 276 279 282 84.85 85.92 87.00 88.00 89.00 90.00 91.00 92.00 93.00 94.00 285 288 291 294 297 300 96.00 97.00 98.00 99.00 99.94 258 261 264 267 270 273 95.00 (continued) V30-40 (continued) 27.3 24.7 27.2 25.2 21.8 19.1 20.9 19.7 303 306 309 312 100.88 101.82 102.76 103.69 25.5 24.9 25.4 25.3 22.8 23.2 22.7 22.6 28.1 25.4 27.5 26.2 27.1 24.7 25.3 25.1 23.4 24.2 23.4 26.1 24.1 26.8 25.2 26.4 27.0 23.6 23.7 24.9 24.8 20.9 20.1 21.2 20.6 22.4 21.5 20.5 21.7 22.1 21.7 21.6 22.8 21.3 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.0 18.0 19.0 19.0 20.7 315 318 321 324 327 330 333 336 339 342 345 348 351 354 357 360 363 366 369 372 375 104.63 105.57 106.51 107.45 108.39 109.33 110.27 111.20 112.14 113.08 114.02 114.96 115.90 116.84 117.78 118.71 119.65 120.59 121.53 122.55 123.64 26.1 25.4 26.1 25.0 25.8 24.2 27.3 26.1 26.5 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.9 25.0 25.4 26.3 25.8 24.7 25.7 25.6 26.2 23.2 23.0 23.4 22.6 22.3 20.4 21.7 20.2 21.0 20.1 20.7 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.6 21.0 22.6 22.2 23.4 22.8 23.5 25.6 20.9 378 124.73 24.0 21.4 26.5 24.3 25.1 25.8 25.0 26.0 25.9 27.4 21.8 21.5 21.3 21.1 22.0 23.5 22.8 24.4 381 384 387 390 393 396 399 402 125.82 126.91 128.00 129.75 131.50 133.25 135.00 135.76 25.0 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.3 20.6 20.4 19.6 19.9 17.9 18.1 18.7 18.7 25.3 26.7 25.8 26.4 25.0 22.5 24.6 21.9 22.2 20.9 20.4 20.1 20.9 405 408 411 414 417 136.52 137.29 138.05 138.81 139.57 25.8 26.7 25.8 26.7 26.9 17.3 18.2 17.4 18.5 19.5 420 423 426 140.33 141.10 141.86 20.7 19.4 22.4 19.3 22.0 21.6 20.6 21.0 21.8 22.1 23.2 429 432 435 438 441 444 447 450 453 456 459 142.62 143.38 144.14 144.90 145.67 146.43 147.19 147.95 148.71 149.48 150.24 26.5 26.2 27.2 26.2 26.8 26.1 27.8 25.6 26.2 26.0 25.8 26.0 25.8 25.5 18.4 19.0 19.2 19.5 21.0 20.1 23.0 21.0 20.2 21.3 21.9 22.2 21.9 20.7 26.5 24.7 25.0 27.9 24.8 26.5 24.7 26.5 25.3 25.5 24.8 25.3 25.2 25.7 Mcintyre et al.Table Depth, A1. cm Age,ka V30-40 Surface Water Response to Orbital (continued) Tw,øC Table Tc,øC Depth, cm A1. 462 465 468 471 474 477 480 483 486 489 151.00 152.00 153.00 154 .00 155.00 156.00 157 .00 158.00 159.00 160.00 27.2 26.6 27.0 27.1 26.0 24 .2 25.5 25.8 26.1 25.8 22.2 22.0 20.7 18.8 19.7 16.8 19.1 17.2 18.2 19.1 621 624 627 630 633 636 639 642 645 648 492 495 498 501 161.00 162 .00 163.00 164 .00 25.2 26.3 25.3 25.0 504 507 510 513 516 519 522 525 528 531 534 165.00 166.00 167 .00 168.00 169.00 170.00 171.00 171.83 172 . 67 173.50 174.33 537 540 175.17 176.00 25.2 26.0 24.7 25.7 26.3 25.4 26.1 26.9 26.1 26.5 26.9 26.8 18.0 20.0 19.1 21.0 19.5 20.1 20.2 21.5 21.7 21.3 22.1 21.9 23 ß3 23.1 22.6 23.2 21.3 651 654 657 660 663 666 669 672 675 678 681 684 687 690 693 696 699 543 177 .40 26.0 21.8 702 546 549 552 555 558 561 564 567 570 178.80 180.20 181 . 60 183.00 183.75 184 .50 185.25 186.00 186 . 62 25.2 25.4 26.4 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.1 25.5 26.1 20.3 20.4 19.3 17.2 18.7 18.9 17.5 18.7 18 ß9 705 708 711 714 717 720 723 726 729 573 576 579 582 585 588 591 594 597 600 603 606 609 612 187 .23 187 .85 188.46 189.08 189.69 190.31 190.92 191.54 192 .15 192 .77 193.38 194 .00 195.57 197 .14 25.7 26.0 27.4 26.5 26.9 26.2 26.0 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.7 19.2 20.0 20.4 21.2 21.9 23.1 23.2 23.0 22.9 23.3 23.2 23.8 22.5 22.2 732 735 738 741 744 747 750 753 615 618 198.71 200.29 23.9 24.8 20.1 20.1 (continued) Tw, øC Age,ka V30-40 (continued) 25.0 Forcing Tc, øC (continued) 201.86 203.43 205.00 208.50 24.9 24.8 25.1 24.5 21.5 20.0 19.7 20.0 212 . 00 213.33 214 . 67 216.00 217.50 219.00 220.50 222.00 223.50 225.00 226.50 228.00 228.77 229.54 230.31 231.08 231.85 232 . 62 233.38 234.15 234 .92 235.69 236.46 237.23 24 . 0 25.0 25.7 26.0 26.5 26.3 25.9 26.2 25.5 25.9 25.5 25.0 25.3 24.8 23.5 25.4 25.5 25 . 3 25.6 25.1 24.7 25.6 25.7 25.9 19.6 19.8 22.4 21.5 22.4 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.7 23.0 22.2 21.2 19.1 19.1 16.4 17.7 20.3 19 . 2 18.3 21.5 20.9 23.0 23.3 23.0 238.00 239.19 240.38 241.56 242.75 243.94 245.13 246.31 247.50 248.69 249.88 251.06 252.25 253.44 254.63 255.81 257.00 25.9 24.8 25.1 23.2 24.2 24.7 25.5 24.3 25.1 25.5 23.9 24.6 24.6 23.8 24.1 24.0 25.3 23.4 22.6 21.9 20.8 20.5 19.8 19.0 18.8 19.1 19.8 19.0 19.9 20.4 21.1 20.6 21.7 22.7 28.1 26.3 25.8 25.9 24.1 23.7 RC24-16 0 3 6 1.50 2.20 2.90 48 Mcintyre Table Depth, cm A1. Age, ka RC24-16 9 12 15 18 21 24 3.60 4.30 5.00 5.70 6.40 7.10 27 7.80 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 8.50 9.20 9.90 10.60 11.30 12.00 12.85 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 13.69 14.54 15.39 16.24 17.08 17.93 18.78 19.36 19.94 78 20.52 81 84 21.10 21.68 87 22.26 90 93 22.84 23.42 96 99 102 105 108 111 114 117 120 123 126 129 132 135 138 141 144 147 150 153 156 159 162 165 24.00 25.20 26.40 27.59 28.79 29.99 31.19 32.38 33.58 34.78 35.98 37.17 38.37 39.57 40.77 41.96 43.16 44.36 45.26 46.15 47.05 47.95 48.85 49.74 et al.' Surface Water (continued) Tw,øC Response Table Tc, øC Depth, cm Orbital A1. (continued) Age, ka Tw, oC RC24-16 (continued) to Forcing Tc , oC (continued) 26.2 25.9 26.4 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.8 26.0 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.9 26.4 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.9 23.7 24.2 22.8 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.1 21.9 22.9 21.0 20.5 168 171 174 177 180 183 186 189 192 195 198 201 204 207 210 213 50.64 51.54 52.44 53.33 54.23 55.13 56.03 56.92 57.82 58.72 59.62 60.51 61.41 62.31 63.21 64.10 25.8 25.6 27.6 26.8 26.7 27.5 26.6 27.1 26.7 26.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.5 26.9 26.0 20.3 18.6 22.1 19.0 20.8 20.7 20.5 21.0 21.5 20.7 20.7 21.2 20.9 20.7 21.5 21.1 26.5 26.7 26.2 26.2 26.3 25.8 26.1 26.0 27.4 26.9 26.4 20.6 19.7 18.8 17.3 18.4 17.8 17.7 18.7 18.7 20.2 19.5 216 219 222 225 228 231 234 237 240 243 246 65.00 66.11 67.22 68.32 69.43 70.54 71.41 72.28 73.14 74.01 74.88 26.4 27.3 27.0 27.2 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.1 26.3 21.4 20.4 19.7 18.7 17.4 16.2 17.5 17.9 18.6 18.8 19.3 27.3 26.4 27.2 27.3 27.9 27.1 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.0 26.9 25.5 26.3 26.6 25.2 26.0 26.4 25.6 26.6 25.9 25.7 26.2 26.5 26.9 26.0 25.3 19.7 20.6 20.9 19.7 19.9 20.6 18.7 20.7 18.8 19.0 19.5 19.6 18.5 17.9 19.6 18.3 18.4 18.5 17.5 17.1 17.7 17.6 18.8 18.6 17.7 19.2 249 252 255 258 261 264 267 270 273 276 279 282 285 288 291 294 297 300 303 306 309 312 315 318 321 324 25.8 26.5 26.0 25.7 26.9 25.9 26.3 26.4 27.2 25.4 25.6 25.3 25.9 26.6 25.6 25.9 26.0 25.5 25.7 25.7 26.2 26.0 27.0 25.4 27.7 27.3 19.7 18.2 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.6 23.0 23.3 23.4 21.3 19.5 19.5 20.5 19.6 18.9 18.7 19.0 18.7 20.0 21.0 21.1 21.4 23.2 22.6 24.0 23.1 75.75 76.61 77.48 78.35 79.22 80.09 80.95 81.82 82.69 83.94 85.20 86.45 87.71 88.96 90.22 91.47 92.73 93.98 95.24 96.49 97.75 99.00 99.82 100.64 101.46 102.29 Mcintyre et al.' Table Surface Water Response to Orbital A1. (continued) Depth, cm Age,ka Tw,øC 327 330 333 336 339 342 345 348 351 354 357 360 363 366 369 372 375 378 381 384 387 390 393 396 399 402 405 408 411 414 417 420 423 426 429 432 435 438 441 444 447 450 453 456 459 462 465 468 471 474 477 480 483 Forcing Table Tc, øC A1. Depth, cm Age,ka RC24-16 RC24-16 (continued) 103.11 103.93 104 .75 105.57 106.39 107.21 108.04 108.86 109.68 110.50 111.32 112 .14 112.96 113.79 27.4 27.8 27.4 26.5 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.2 25.5 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.7 26.3 24.1 24.1 23.0 22.1 22.7 22.6 22.0 22.0 19.6 19.3 17.7 19.2 18.1 19.5 486 489 492 495 498 501 504 507 510 513 114.61 115.43 116.25 117 .07 117.89 118.71 119.54 120.36 121 . 18 122.00 122 . 87 123.73 124.60 125.47 126.33 25.7 26.7 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.5 27.6 26.6 26.4 26 ß 6 26.2 25.6 24.8 24.8 19.0 21.5 22.1 22.9 22.9 21.5 23.8 24.1 24 . 1 24.3 24 . 3 23.7 22.5 22.1 21.9 528 127.20 128.07 25.0 25.5 22.2 21.6 128.93 129.80 130.67 131.53 132 .40 133.27 134.13 135.00 135.50 136.00 136.50 138.11 139.72 141.33 142 .94 144 .56 146.17 147 .78 149.39 151.00 151.74 152 .47 25.3 24.6 25.2 25.1 25.8 26.0 26.6 26.5 25.8 26.5 25.0 25.8 26.5 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.8 26.8 26.2 25.9 27.2 27.1 21.1 20.7 20.6 18.9 17.7 18.6 18.1 18.2 18.1 18.2 17.3 17.0 17.0 17.9 17.5 18.8 19.9 20.4 20.8 20.5 21.7 22.2 516 519 522 525 531 534 537 54O 543 546 549 552 555 558 561 564 567 570 573 576 579 582 585 588 591 594 597 6OO 603 606 609 612 615 618 621 624 627 630 633 636 639 642 •9 (continued) Tw,øC Tc,øC (continued) 153.21 153.95 26.8 26.5 19.4 19.6 154.68 155.42 156.16 156.89 157.63 158.37 159.11 159.84 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.3 26.0 27.0 26.3 26.1 20.2 18.2 19.1 18.8 19.8 19.1 19.5 19.3 160.58 161.32 162.05 162.79 163.53 164.26 165.00 166.13 167 .25 168.38 169.50 170.63 171.75 172 .88 174 .00 175.13 176.25 177.38 178.50 26.0 25.9 26.0 24.8 26.1 25.8 26.2 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.4 27.3 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.9 27.0 26.6 18.2 18.9 18.1 18.6 18.0 17.6 19.1 19.9 19.6 20.6 20.7 20.5 19.9 20.2 21.8 20.6 20.2 20.5 20.6 179.63 180.75 181.88 183.00 183.58 184 .16 184.74 185.32 185.89 186.47 187 .05 187.63 188.21 188.79 189.37 189.95 190.53 191.11 191.68 192.26 192 .84 193.42 194 .00 195.24 26.0 25.4 25.2 25.4 26.0 25.7 26.4 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.3 27.5 26.8 27.0 27.6 25.2 26.8 28.7 28.3 27.1 26.5 27.3 27.0 27.0 20.1 20.7 20.2 17.1 18.2 17.5 19.4 17.0 15.7 18.6 18.5 18.4 20.9 20.8 23.5 20.7 23.3 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.4 25.1 24.3 23.7 50 Mcintyre Table et A1. (continued) Age, ka Tw,øC al.' Surface Water cm to Orbital defining SPECMAP isotopic then adjusted for best fit methods Depth, Response described stratigraphy Tc,øC and in in section the references Forcing events and by the the of this paper listed in this , RC24-16 paragraph. (continued) 645 648 651 654 657 660 663 666 669 672 196.48 197.72 198.96 200.20 201.44 202.68 203.92 205.16 206.40 207 ß 64 25.6 26.7 25.1 25.7 24.5 25.6 25.0 23.6 24.5 23.9 22.3 22.8 20.9 21.6 19.4 21.2 19.5 20.4 20.1 21.4 675 678 681 684 687 690 693 696 699 702 705 708 711 714 717 720 723 726 729 208.88 210.12 211.36 212 . 60 213.84 215.08 216.32 217.56 218.80 220.04 221.28 222.52 223.76 225.00 225.93 226.86 227.79 228.71 229.64 25.2 24.4 24.8 24 . 7 25.9 24.9 25.4 24.8 26.2 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.3 26.3 25.6 25.2 26.4 25.3 20.6 21.5 22.6 23 . 3 24.3 23.2 23.7 23.2 24.4 23.8 23.9 24.2 23.2 24.5 21.4 19.5 19.2 19.6 19.3 732 735 738 741 744 747 750 230.57 231.50 232 .43 233.36 234.29 235.21 236.14 24.9 25.8 26.5 25.4 26.4 27.5 27.3 20.4 19.2 18.8 19.2 22.1 23.3 22.6 APPENDIX B. CORE Table Isotopic Substage et the at., 1987]. SPECMAP chronology et al. Core stack V30-40 cores was established [1984] . We have is one of whose by Imbrie modified their age model for this core for events prior to 7.5 (see text for explanation). Age models for V25-59 and RC24-16 were first erected by Chronology Depth in Core (cm) V25-59 V30-40 RC24-16 1.5 6.5 11.0 12.0 14.0 17.8 18.87 19.0 21.4 24.0 3.1 28.0 -.- 44.4 3.3 53.0 4.0 4.2 -.5 0 5.1 59.0 65.0 67.2 70.5 71.0 80.0 -.5 2 82.7 87.0 0.0 16.5 35.5 -.42.5 ß -.55.0 -.-.92.5 -.160.0 -.187 5 205.0 -.215.0 232.5 -.252.5 -.- 95.3 275.0 5 3 5.4 99.0 107.0 292.5 310.0 297 -.- 317.5 337.5 350.0 372.5 -.395.0 400.0 415.0 427.0 445.0 457.0 -.370.5 387.0 -.399.0 -.- 6 3 6.4 -.-.-.- 113.0 122.0 128.0 131.5 135.0 139.6 146.0 151.0 156.0 163.5 167.7 6.5 -.6 6 7.0 7.1 7.2 -.7.3 -.7.4 7.5 -.- 171.0 176.0 183.0 186.0 194.0 205.0 212.0 216.0 225.0 228.0 238.0 257.0 -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.- -- The chronology for each core (Table B1) was established using the SPECMAP oxygen isotope taxonomy [Imbrie et al., 1984; Pisias et at., 1984; Prell et at., 1986; Martinson Age ka Core -.1.1 -.2 0 -.2 22 -.2.2 2.24 3.0 5.5 6.0 -.6.2 CHRONOLOGY B1. , -- 0.0 12.0 -.33 0 -.58 5 -.-.75 0 91.5 -.-.162.0 183.0 195.0 -.- 0.0 -.-.45.0 -.-.69.0 -.-.96.0 -.147 0 -.-.216 0 -- o- 231 208 241.5 . 0 -.273.0 -.- 0 312 -.261 -.- -.- -.- 462 522.0 540.0 555.0 567.0 606.0 627.0 633.0 642.0 -.666.0 705.0 753.0 0 -.-.- 396 0 -.-.441.0 -.0 -.-.-.- 0 0 477 0 -.-.-.- . . 582.0 . 639.0 -.-.-.714 0 . 756.0 . 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