Statistics for Action Activities Facilitator Instructions Averages: Imagine the Extremes Activity Overview Since some EPA regulations are based on an average, a claim like, “Our emissions are under the limit,” could cover up a potentially hazardous scenario. Participants imagine numbers and make a graph with low, high, and middle values that could be represented by the average given. Graphing the possibilities empowers community members to show an actual or potentially harmful situation. When to Use It When reported results include averages that seem to conflict with suspected problems. Suggested companion activities Skill: Make a case that a harmful or not harmful situation exists; Unpack an average to show what extremes an average could hide. Time: 10-20 minutes Data set: Provided, or substitute your own Versions available: Opacity; Soil Composites; Trihalomethanes in the Drinking Water Materials & Prep Copy the participant instructions (1 per pair or participant). Calculators • Follow up with Design a Poster Graph paper Steps 1. Launch the activity: People in this community have witnessed problems with the [air/soil/water], but the data don’t show it. Let’s look at what the data could be hiding. 2. In pairs or as a group: Follow the directions to create a data set. 3. Debrief: • What possible readings did you come up with? • How else could we use data like this? • What readings are a concern that we should highlight in flyers (or other outreach materials/conversations/hearings)? Worth Noting Averages are more appropriate in some situations than in others. One loud blast could damage your hearing, but averaged over a year the sound would seem acceptable. Below are sample data sets for the Soil Composite version. Test Pit 1 lead result in mg/kg (ppm) 0-2 feet 450 2-4 feet 350 4-6 feet 25 Test Pit 2 Sample Opacity Readings lead result in mg/kg (ppm) 0-2 feet 375 2-4 feet 275 4-6 feet 175 Time in Minutes Smart Moves • Compare it. • Play with different ways to show and say it. © 2010 TERC • Statistics for Action DRAFT 65 Averages: Imagine the Extremes Opacity Background The North Carolina Division of Air Quality regulations require that visible emissions for hot mix asphalt plants have an opacity* of less than 20% when averaged over a six-minute period. Neighbor Facility Employee Imagine a scenario where the readings taken by the facility employee agree with what the neighbor saw. Directions 1. Describe in words what could be going on. 2. Create a graph to show six opacity observations made at 1-minute intervals that fit the scenario. (Use the grid provided.) 3. Discuss with your partner: What readings are a concern that you would highlight in a flyer or in a letter to the editor? Note: *Opacity means the capacity to block light. Informally we say “thick” smoke. EPA Method 9 - Visual Determination of the Opacity of Emissions from Stationary Sources requires that more opacity observations be recorded than in this example: at 15-second intervals for a total of 24 observations over 6 minutes. Violations of opacity standards indicate hazardous particulate matter. Averages: Imagine the Extremes © 2010 TERC • Statistics for Action DRAFT 66 Opacity (%) 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Time (minutes) Averages: Imagine the Extremes © 2010 TERC • Statistics for Action DRAFT 67 Averages: Imagine the Extremes Trihalomethanes in the drinking water Background EPA regulations require that the average of any four samples of drinking water have no more than 80 ppb of trihalomethanes. Iʼm sorry to report that the townʼs November sample was high in trihalomethanes. Our average the last two months is above the limit set by the EPA. City Worker Directions 1. Imagine and describe the levels for the year. 2. Create a graph to show four possible trihalomethane levels taken during the year with an average over 80 ppb. 3. Discuss with your partner: What readings would you mention to explain your concern to a decision maker, in a letter to the editor, or to a neighbor? Note: Trihalomethanes are a toxic carcinogen created when chlorine reacts with water. Decreasing trihalomethanes in drinking water is easy. Leave the water in an open pitcher for 3-4 hours. (Source: Columbia Missiourian, July 15, 2008 and www.theolivebranch.com/water/trihalo.htm) Averages: Imagine the Extremes © 2010 TERC • Statistics for Action DRAFT 68 Averages: Imagine the Extremes © 2010 TERC • Statistics for Action DRAFT 69 Averages: Imagine the Extremes Soil Composites Background Soil samples are often mixed together into a composite from various depths. The lab tests the composite sample and reports one level for each contaminant. Of course we want to start building houses on this former industrial property. All the soil test results came back below the regulatory limits established by the state DEP. Look at the data in the report yourself! Whatʼs the problem? Community Member: These samples are composites. They are an average and that doesnʼt tell us enough. Is there any risk for future residents of the property? Two test pits were completed with composite soil samples at various depth and analyzed for lead. The average is 267 mg/kg, which is below the residential standard in this state (300 ppm). Directions 1. Create a graph to show the levels taken at 0-2 ft, 2-4 feet, and 4-6 feet. (You can use graph paper or a calculator.) 2. Discuss: Use your graph and practice explaining your concern to a decision maker, to a neighbor, or in a letter to the editor. 3. What additional information would be important when looking at this data? Think about source and exposure. Averages: Imagine the Extremes © 2010 TERC • Statistics for Action DRAFT 70 Averages: Imagine the Extremes © 2010 TERC • Statistics for Action DRAFT 71
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