Estimating the Risk of Gateway Drug Behaviors
The goal of this report is to briefly describe how risk of gateway drug behaviors – drinking
alcohol, getting drunk, smoking cigarettes, and using marijuana – were estimated. Sources of Data. The Tanglewood Research team has been involved in multiple research
projects that span the 1990s through the present during which numerous student surveys have been
collected. Data were extracted from 36 separate datasets. Overall, 37,470 surveys were assembled for
analysis. Measures. Each survey included self‐report measures of gender, age, attitudes and gateway
drug behaviors. Scores on the attitude scale range from 0.0 (representing the most extreme pro‐drug
use attitude) to 10.0 (representing the most extreme anti‐drug use attitude) and all values in between.
Drug use behaviors had two responses: no or yes.
Drug Use Increases with Age. The percent of students who report engaging in drug use
increases as they grow older. The results pictured below are estimated from two national studies, the
University of Michigan’s Monitoring the Future project and the CDC’s Youth Risk Behavior Survey.
Attitudes. In general, pre‐teens start with very positive attitudes. As they grow older, attitude
scores “erode” for both girls and boys. (Remember, 10.0 is the best possible attitude score.)
Average Attitude Scores
Age
Girls
Boys
11
8.9
8.6
12
8.3
8.0
13
7.7
7.4
14
7.1
6.8
15
7.0
6.5
16
6.9
6.0
17
6.6
5.9
1
Using our research team’s surveys in combination with data from national surveys we found
that attitudes are strong predictors expected future risk. As shown in the graphic below, when attitude
scores are near 10, the percent of teens engaging in any drug behavior is near 0%. Risk gradually
increases as attitude score decline.
Estimated Risk. We were able to use attitude scores and typical patterns of behavior to develop
a method for estimating risk of future risk. Your child’s current estimated risk for each behavior was
based on the attitude score calculated from answers to his or her survey. If the attitude score was
higher (closer to 10.0) than the average for your child’s age, estimated risk was less than average. If the
attitude score was lower (closer to 0.0) than the average for your child’s age, estimated risk was
greater than average. As your child’s age increases, past research suggests that attitudes will get worse
and the base rates for drug use will increase. These factors were included in estimating future risk. How Accurate Are Estimates? Estimated risk is based on what typically happens to teens who
do not receive effective prevention. Estimates are best statistical guesses. For some teens, the
estimates may be a little high; for others, the estimates may be a little low. It is unlikely that for any
given teen, these estimates will be perfectly accurate; however, estimates will very likely be in the
general ball park and should be taken as the most likely outcome given your child’s current attitude.
Can Risk Be Reduced? Yes. If you consistently apply effective preventive practices that improve
your child’s attitude, risk will be greatly reduced. 2