Weekly Weather Briefing
National Weather Service – Buffalo NY
Week of March 10 - 16
Applies to NWS Buffalo
Area of Responsibility Only
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY – www.weather.gov/buf
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2
This Week’s Impacts
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MID – WEEK WINTER STORM
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WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY
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Late Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night – potential for 7 to 12 inches
COLD TEMPERATURES
Lake effect snow develop to the southeast of the lakes
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
The cold air crossing the warm waters of the Great Lakes will result in
limited localized lake effect snow throughout the week
FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY
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Low pressure moving across the Great Lakes is forecast to bring a
light snowfall to the region
3/10/2014
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Weather Synopsis – Today through Tuesday
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A couple of weak shortwaves cross the
region through this period
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Precipitation
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Temperatures
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Light rain/snows showers are expected
through early Tuesday morning
Daytime temps in the mid 30s to low
40s with overnight temps around 32
Impacts

Precipitation will generally be light in
nature however with temperatures in
the lower 30s tonight untreated roads
may become slick – especially across
the north country
Tonight’s (2AM)
Forecast Surface Map
3/10/2014
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Weather Synopsis – Tuesday Night
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A weak cold front pushes south into
the area as low pressure continues to
deepen over the mid-Mississippi Valley
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Precipitation
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Light snow is expected to overspread the
region from southwest to northeast
Accumulations generally only an inch or
two overnight
Temperature

Overnight lows in the upper 20s – mid 20
east of Lake Ontario
Tuesday Evening’s (8PM)
Forecast Surface Map
3/10/2014
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Weather Synopsis – Wednesday / Wednesday Night
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Low pressure tracks from the lower Ohio
Valley to south of Long Island by evening
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Precipitation
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Snow continues across the region
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Snow becomes moderate to heavy
Highest amounts across the southern tier and
Finger Lakes
Initially snow amounts will be less along the south
shore of Lake Ontario but lake enhancement later
Wednesday/Wednesday night will make up for it
Temperature

Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s Wednesday
will plummet into the single digits by Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Morning’s (8AM)
Forecast Surface Map
3/10/2014
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Snowfall
Forecast
Wednesday
3/10/2014
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Snowfall
Forecast
Wednesday
Night
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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Storm
Snowfall
Forecast
Tuesday
Night
through
Wednesday
Night
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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Weather Synopsis – Thursday / Thursday Night

As the low moves off the coast a
northerly flow will bring cold air over
the region
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Precipitation

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Cold air crossing Lake Ontario will result
in lake effect snow showers south of the
lake
Temperatures

Daytimes highs will struggle to reach the
mid teens across much of the area with
lower teens across the higher terrain
Thursday Morning’s (8AM)
Forecast Surface Map
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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Weather Synopsis – Weekend Outlook
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Low pressure approaches and crosses
the Great Lakes region during the
first part of the weekend.
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Precipitation
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Chance of light snow
Temperature
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Return to normal levels
Friday Morning’s (8AM)
Forecast Surface Map
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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Temperatures
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Highs:
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NOTE: Areas near and downwind of the
Lakes will be moderated by the water
temperatures
11
Today: Low 40s but Mid 30s North Country
Tuesday: Low to Mid 40s but Upper 30s North Country
Wednesday: Mid to Upper 20s in the morning, falling into teens by
evening
Thursday: In the teens
Friday and Saturday: Mid to Upper 30s
Sunday: Around 30
Overnight Lows:
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Tonight: Low to Mid 30s
Tuesday Night: Mid to Upper 20s
Wednesday Night and Thursday Night: in the single digits
Friday Night: Upper 20s to Low 30
Saturday Night: Upper teens to low 20s
3/10/2014
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Modeled Snow Depth – 10 MAR 2014
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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Modeled Snow Water Equivalent – 10 MAR 2014
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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Modeled Snow Water Equivalent – 10 MAR 2014
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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Great Lakes
Ice Cover
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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18
Precipitation Totals – Month to Date
Through March 9, 2014
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/watersupply.shtml
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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Precipitation Departure – Month to Date
Through March 9, 2014
Data Missing from Chautauqua,
Cattaraugus and parts of Allegany
County
3/10/2014
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Stats and Climatology (through 03/09)
Precipitation
Buffalo
Rochester
Watertown
0.22”
0.12”
0.09”
-0.60”
-0.58”
-0.59”
7.00”
3.74”
7.19”
+0.51”
-1.32”
+1.63”
2.6”
3.3
-2.2”
-3.0”
Season (Since September1)
106.8”
86.4”
Departure from Normal
+23.2”
+1.2”
Normal High Temperature (03/10)
40
40
38
Normal Low Temperature (03/10)
24
24
18
Month to Date – March
Departure from Normal
Annual (Since January 1)
Departure from Normal
Snowfall
Month to Date – March
Departure from Normal
Temperature
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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Precipitation Totals – February 2014
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/watersupply.shtml
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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22
Precipitation Departure – February 2014
Data Missing from Chautauqua,
Cattaraugus and parts of Allegany
County
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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@NWSBuffalo on Twitter
23
Stats and Climatology - February 2014
Precipitation
Monthly Total
Departure from Normal
Snowfall
Monthly Total
Departure from Normal
Temperature
Average High Temperature for the Month
Departure from Normal
Average Low Temperature for the Month
Departure from Normal
Average Temperature for the Month
Departure from Normal
Wind
Average Wind Speed
Departure from Normal
Buffalo
Rochester
Watertown
3.62
2.39”
3.41”
+1.13”
-0.44”
+1.19”
23.3
26.3”
+6.0”
+4.8”
26.5°
28.4°
27.3°
-6.8°
-5.7°
-4.4°
13.2°
14.1°
6.8°
-6.0°
-4.5°
-3.6°
19.8°
21.3°
17.0°
-6.5°
-5.1°
-4.1°
11.4mph
10.3 mph
7.7 mph
-1.5mph
-1.1mph
-2.3 mph
3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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General Reminders
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This briefing is prepared each Monday. Weather forecasts change as the
week progresses. Always monitor the systems as they develop through
the week.
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Emergency managers, government partners and media can log onto to
NWSChat Live (https://nwschat.weather.gov/live) to get critical warning
decision expertise from the forecasters and exchange real-time
information

The latest Area Forecast Discussion can be found at:
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3/10/2014
National Weather Service - Buffalo NY
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