THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY
OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947
/IS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD
550 Kearny Street, Suite 900
San Francisco, CA 94108-2527
(415) 781-4921 FAX: (415) 434-2541
COPYRIGHT 1993 BY THEFIEWINSTI1UIE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.
Release #1691
Release Date: Friday, October 29,1993
PEROT HAS LOST LUSTER.
DECLINE IN THE PROPORTIONS
WHO LIKE HIM AND THINK HIS
ACTIONS WILL HELP SOLVE
COUNTRY'S PROBLEMS.
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is
subject to revocation if publication or broadcast
takes place before release date or if contents are
divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff
prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)
By Mervin Field and Mark DiCamillo
•
Ross Perot, the Texas billionaire businessman, seems to have lost some of the considerable
luster and public appeal which he attracted last year when he fIrst burst onto the national
political stage in his short lived but dramatic ron for the Presidency.
An October Field Poll reveals that the proportion of the public who says that they like
Perot, either a lot or somewhat, has declined from 50% found in a May survey to 38%
today.
In addition, where last May 39% felt that what Perot is saying and doing helps in solving
the country's problems, just 28% now take this position.
The drop in esteem for Perot has occurred among both Democrats and Republicans and
those who voted for either Bill Clinton or George Bush in the 1992 Presidential election.
There has also been a decline in regard for Perot among those who voted for him last
November.
•
Following last year's election, Perot began organizing the people who had supported him
during the campaign into a national citizens group, United We Stand America. A
headquarters was set up in Washington with chapters existing throughout the country.
Perot himself has continued to appear on national1V, either on talk shows or as sponsor
of paid "infomercials" promoting some of his ideas, particularly his opposition to the
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFfA).
The Field (California) Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent and impartial public opinion news service. The Poll
is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of pUblic opinion and
behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of its survey
findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives support from academic, government, media, and private sources.
#1691
Page 2
The Field Poll
Friday, October 29, 1993
Esteem for Perot drops
The data from this survey indicates that there are now fewer people who like Perot and
who think what he says and does will help in solving the country's problems. However,
this drop in esteem for Perot has not resulted in a significant shift to outright dislike for
him, or to a belief that what he is doing will make it more difficult to solve the country's
problems. Rather, it is simply a case of subsidence in the initial belief that Perot, as an
unconventional political person, might just provide some answers to the nation's many
problems.
•
Table 1
Degree to which public likes/dislikes Ross Perot
(among all adults)
Like a loti
somewhat
Neither likeJ
dislike
Dislike a loti
somewhat
No
opinion
38%
50%
28
21
27
24
7
5
Democrats
October
May
28%
44%
31
22
33
32
8
2
Republicans
October
May
48%
58%
27
21
21
17
4
4
Clinton voters
October
May
24%
38%
33
22
42
38
1
2
Bush voters
October
May
31%
46%
36
28
29
23
4
3
Perot voters
October
May
83%
94%
10
3
7
2
*
Did not vote
October
May
44%
47%
22
24
21
18
Statewide
October
May
Party Identification
•
1992 Presidential Vote
*less than 1/2 of1%
1
13
11
•
#1691
The Field Poll
Friday, October 29, 1993
Page 4
•
Majority not inclined to support Perot for President in 1996
Early last year Perot, in a surprise announcement, said that he would run as an independent
Presidential candidate. While he had never held office before, Perot was able to attract a
strong following in a very short period of time. His popularity reached a high point in the
summer of 1992 when he led both George Bush and Bill Clinton in national and California
presidential preference polls.
However, Perot abruptly withdrew from the race in July but reentered late in the campaign.
Drawing huge sums of campaign money from his own funds, Perot was able to
underwrite an expensive TV campaign. In the election he captured 21 % of the California
vote and 19% nationally - totals that no third party or independent Presidential candidate
had ever achieved since Theodore Roosevelt's run in 1912 on the Progressive Party or
"Bull Moose" ticket.
Voters in this survey were asked if they were presently inclined to vote for Perot if he were
to be a presidential candidate again in 1996. Slightly less than one in three of this state's
registered voters (31 %), and just 67% of those who voted for him last year, said they
would be inclined to support him next time.
Table 3
Inclination to vote for Perot for President in 1996
if he were to run again
(among registered voters)
Inclined
Not
inclined
No
opinion
31%
60
9
Democrats
23%
71
6
Republicans
37%
52
11
Clinton voters
15%
78
7
Bush voters
26%
60
14
Perot voters
67%
23
10
Statewide
•
Party Registration
1992 Presidential Vote
-30­
•
#1691
PageS
The Field Poll
Friday, October 29, 1993
•
Information About the Survey
Sample Details
The survey was completed October 8-15, 1993 among a random statewide sample of 504
California adults, of whom 357 reported being registered to vote. Interviewing was
conducted by telephone in either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods.
The weighted sample bases of each subgroup reported in this release are as follows:
Democrats (240), Republicans (211), Clinton voters in 1992 (148), Bush voters (92), Perot
voters (71), did not vote (193).
Estimates of sampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory 95% of
the time results from the overall adult sample would be accurate within plus or minus 4.5
percentage points, while the results among the voter sanlple is plus or minus 5.5
percentage points. The sampling error from each subsample would be larger.
There are many possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability.
Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing or
through undetected errors in sampling, interviewing or data processing. Every effort was
made to minimize such non-sampling errors.
•
Questions Asked
What do you personally think of Ross Perot? Do you like him a lot, like him somewhat,
neither like him nor dislike him, dislike him somewhat or dislike him a lot?
Do you think what Ross Perot is now saying and doing will help or hurt in solving some
of the country's problems, or not have much effect either way?
ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS: Suppose Ross Perot ran for President again in 1996.
Based on your present feelings about him, would you be inclined or not inclined to vote for
Perot for President in 1996?
•