Where will the Energy for
Hydrogen Production come from?
-Status and Alternatives-
Commissioned by the German Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association
Authors: J. Schindler, R. Wurster, M. Zerta, V. Blandow and W. Zittel
of the Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH
Gulledelle 98
B 1200 Brussels
Belgium
Telephone +32 2 7759077
Fax
+32 2 7725044
E-mail Internet
[email protected]
www.h2euro.org
Copyright: 2006 Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH (LBST),
Daimlerstrasse 15, 85521 Ottobrunn, Germany
The document in part or as a whole is copyright protected. Any exploitation beyond the
limitations of the law of intellectual property rights is prohibited without the consent of
LBST.
This refers in particular to any reproduction, translation, microfilming and storage in electronic
systems.
The user rights of the English version rest with the European Hydrogen Association (EHA).
Layout: Young-Sook Blandow, choidesign.de
ydrogen – Energy – Climate Protection – Energy Efficiency – Fuel Cells – Heat – Electricity – Coal – Natural
as – Refuelling Station – Reformer – Gas Turbine – Hydropower – Crude Oil – Biogas – Solar Energy – Nucear Energy – LH2 – Wind Power – Transportation Fuel – Biomass – Power Plant – Photovoltaics – Solar
eat – Combined Heat and Power – CGH2 – Heating Energy – Mobility – Electrolysis – Wood Pellets – Gethermal Energy – Pumped Hydro Storage – Combined Cycle Power Plant – Greenhouse Gases – Battery
EHA (European Hydrogen Association)
Introduction
In recent years, the question has been asked repeatedly “Where will the hydrogen come
from?” This question is important, but can only be answered if one considers a more
fundamental question “where will our energy come from in the coming decades?” Today
it mainly comes from finite fossil and nuclear energy carriers; in the long term, it will come
from renewable energies. The basic question of availability of raw energy materials is to
be covered in this brochure and an answer proposed.
To do this, it is first necessary to clarify how long production rates can follow and meet
the growing demand for crude oil, natural gas and coal. Furthermore, particularly for
coal, we need to understand whether, to what extent and over which period of time,
the separation and safe storage of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is possible
– a basic requirement for carbon-based energy production. In addition the contribution
that nuclear energy can realistically make needs to be assessed.
The potential of renewable energies to cover the energy demand is estimated, cost
reductions in wind power and photovoltaics are presented, as well as the possible growth
of regenerative vehicle fuels specifically in hydrogen terms.
In conclusion it can be stated that the expected reduction in oil production will leave a gap
that cannot be filled by fossil and nuclear energy resources. On the other hand, renewable
energies will significantly increase in the coming decades, however, for some time will
make too small a contribution to close this gap. Moreover, no production or application
solution should exclude a more efficient use of energy. It also shows that biofuels alone
cannot keep the world moving and, therefore, that hydrogen will become an important
fuel in the transport sector. Only when it is possible to develop electric automobiles with
acceptable features (storage density, durability, cold start, price) will the use of hydrogen
be unnecessary. In any case, from today’s viewpoint, this is highly improbable.
As a short-term introduction strategy for Germany for example, it is possible to use
hydrogen by-product from the chemical industry for the first captive vehicle fleets. This
hydrogen will today primarily have a thermal use and mainly be cofired with natural gas
but could, in fact, be completely substituted by natural gas. In some locations, a total
of over 500 million Nm³ of hydrogen can be made available, which would be enough to
power at least 300,000 efficient fuel cell passenger cars.
P
C
o H
W ho
a
t
o o S l – ydr
o v o
d o la N og
G Pe lta r at en
re
l i E u
en let cs ne ral – E
h s – – S rgy G ne
o
as r
o
u
se Ge la – N – gy
o r
G th H uc Re – C
as e e le fu l
es rm at ar el im
l
a
– al – C En ing te
B E o e
at ne m rg S Pr
te rg b y ta ot
ry y in – tio ec
– ed LH n ti
P H 2 – on
u
m ea – Re –
p t W fo En
ed a in r
n
m e
H d d P e rg
yd Po o r – y
ro w w G Eff
S er er as ici
to – –
T e
ra C Tr ur nc
g GH an bi y
e
n –
– 2 sp e Fu
C – o –
o H rt H el
m e a y C
b at tio dr el
in in n o ls
ed g F p
o –
C En ue w He
yc e l – er a
le rgy B – t –
P – io Cr E
o M m u le
w
d c
er ob ass e tr
P ili – Oil icit
la ty P – y
n – ow B
t
i
E
le er og
ct P a
ro la s
ly nt
Table of Contents
Part 1: The Primary Energy Supply
6 Conventional World Oil Production
7 Non-conventional Oil Production from Tar Sands in Canada
9 Future Oil Production from the Viewpoint of the International Energy Agencies
10 World Natural Gas Production
11 Single Field Analyses of Russian Natural Gas Production
13 World Coal Production – History and Scenario
14 Carbon Dioxide Sequestration and Storage Using Fossil Energy Sources
15 Worldwide Nuclear Power Station Capacities
Forecast 1975 – 2004 of IAEA on World Nuclear Power Station Capacities
16 World Uranium Resources
17 LBST Scenario
18 IEA Scenario (IEA World Energy Outlook)
19 Worldwide Installations by 2030
20 Various Forecasts on Development of Wind Power
21 Contribution of Renewable Energy Sources and Usage
22 A Possible World Energy Scenario
Part 2: From Primary Energy to Hydrogen
23 From Primary Energy to Hydrogen
24 Technical Potential of Various Biofuels in the EU 25
25 Technical Potential for Hydrogen from Renewable Power in the EU 25
26 Production per Hectare and Year for Various Fuels in the Transport
Sector Annual Passenger Car Mileage: 12,000 km
27 Cost Reduction for Renewable Energies
28 Fuel Costs “Well to Tank”
29 Fuel Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions “Well to Tank”
Fuel Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions “Well to Wheel”
30 The Roadmap of the European HyWays Project (1)
31 The Roadmap of the European HyWays Project (2)
31 Abbreviations
Supply Situation: Oil
Conventional World Oil Production
Source: Data - IHS Energy, BP 2005
Forecast - LBST 2005 (based on ASPO* scenario)
The illustration shows the historic trend in world
oil production and its probable development in
the future. The production is almost at a peak and
will clearly decrease in the coming decades – the
maximum crude oil production represents a decisive
turning point.
A multitude of evidence supports this theses:
Since 1980 we use more oil than we find each year
and the gap is growing ever larger. More and more
production regions have already exceeded their
maximum production. This applies in particular to
all the large old fields, which still make a significant
contribution to world oil production. There are also
clear signs that the oil-rich countries of the Middle
East and the countries of the former Soviet Union
cannot further extend their production.
*)ASPO = Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas; an association
mainly of geologists who formerly were active in oil and gas exploration
This is all in the face of the expectation of a further
increase in worldwide demand, as highlighted in
the IEA scenarios. The looming supply gaps will
lead to serious distortions in the world economy.
Peak Oil represents a structural interruption.
The search for sustainable structures in energy
supply can no longer be put off. There is a concern
that there is not enough time remaining to organize
a smooth transition to a post-fossil world.
Supply Situation: Oil
Non-conventional Oil Production from Tar Sands in Canada
The oil resources which are tied to very heavy oils,
such as Canadian oil sands or those in Venezuela,
on a quantitative basis come close to the Arabian
oil reserves. However, it cannot be concluded from
this that oil from oil sands will replace the missing
conventional crude oil. The following must be
considered:
(1) This oil is only available in the soil in very small
concentrations. Utilization requires significant
mining activities. Within the best layers the
concentration is around 20 %.
(2) T he separation and purification of the oil uses a
large amount of energy and water; the mining
process is very slow and is more similar to the
mining process for ores than conventional oil
production. A large amount of hydrogen is required
for the separation of sulphur and preparation of
the oil. This is extracted from natural gas.
(3) The lead times for projects are very long; the
investments are high. For example, to develop a
new mine with an extraction rate of 200 kb/day,
around USD 5-10 billion must be invested.
(4) The CO2 emissions from petrol from oil sands are
comparable with those from coal.
(5) The use of natural gas to process oil sands is
increasingly in competition with direct natural
gas usage.
Supply Situation: Oil
Non-conventional Oil Production from Tar Sands in Canada
Data source:• 1975-2005 data National Energy Board CDA • 1960-1974 data US-DoE-Energy Information Admistration
• 2006-Estimate by NEB August, 2006 • 2007-2020 Forecast, tar sands based on CERI-study, October 2005
• Conventional and heavy oil based on LBST estimate
The illustration shows the historical and predicted
development of Canadian oil production.
Conventional oil production has decreased since
1970. Several finds in the deep ocean to the east
of Newfoundland brought a temporary reprieve.
The oil production from oil sands today represents
40 %. However, only around half of the extracted
bitumen is processed into synthetic crude oil in
suitable refineries. In doing this, around 10 % of the
energy content of the bitumen is lost. Natural gas is
also required in this process.
The expansion plans raise expectations that by the
year 2020 around 3.2 million barrels of bitumen
can be produced each day. From these half will be
further processed into crude oil. When compared
with the declining production of crude oil, overall
the available oil will remain constant or increase
slightly. Including bitumen production, today’s
production of 2.5 Mb/day can be increased to just
under 4 Mb/day. This increase corresponds to just
under 2 % of worldwide oil production today. The
decrease in oil production in the USA is already
greater, so that oil production in North America
as a whole will continue to decrease, in spite of
the increase in Canadian production. The oil sand
production is already considered on page 6 for OECD
North America.
Supply Situation: Oil
Future Oil Extraction from the Viewpoint of the International Energy Agency (IEA)
Between 2003 and 2010: 30 – 45 Mb/d additional production capacity?
Data source: IEA 2004
At first glance, the IEA scenarios show the future
of oil supply as optimistic. However, when analysing
the declarations in detail, it becomes apparent that
an increase in production is only possible if
With respect to this IEA states:
• “The reliability and accuracy of reserve estimates
is of growing concern for all who are involved in
the oil industry” (WEO 2004, p. 104)
• the existing oil reserves are actually as large as
reported,
• “The rate at which remaining ultimate resources
can be converted to reserves, and the cost of
doing so, is, however, very uncertain” (WEO 2004,
p. 95)
• the existing reserves can be developed as quickly
as hoped,
• n ew oil production technologies permit a
significantly better yield of (all) oil fields, and
• much more new oil is discovered.
• “By 2030, most oil production worldwide will
come from capacity that is yet to be built” (WEO
2004, p. 103)
• “In the low resource case, conventional production
peaks around 2015” (WEO 2004, p. 102)
Supply Situation: Natural Gas
World Natural Gas Production
Data: IHS Energy, BP 2005
Forecast: LBST 2005 (based on ASPO scenario)
The scenario assumes that the world gas
production can still significantly increase and
will only reach its maximum in the year 2020.
This is based on the assumption that the production
decrease in North America and Europe will be overcompensated by an increase in production in Russia
and the Middle East. This requires significant and
timely investments in these regions.
However, in spite of this optimistic picture, the
future of gas production is rather overshadowed
by risks. A further problem for production expansion
in Russia and the Middle East is the requirement
to significantly expand the infrastructure for
the transport of liquefied natural gas. These
investments require considerable resources and
time. Only by doing this will it be possible to even
out the imbalances between previously unconnected
regional markets – in particular, North America,
Eurasia/North Africa and the Middle East.
10
The scenario shows the possible development
based on today’s estimate of reserve situations and
describes an upper limit. The actual development
in the coming decades can of course be affected by
regional bottlenecks. Supply Situation: Natural Gas
Single Field Analyses of Russian Natural Gas
Data source: Laherrere, LBST
This and the following illustration show the risks of
future gas supply using Russia as an example.
The illustration describes the development of Russian
gas production and the contribution of the large gas
fields to total production. Most of the large producing
fields show a decline in production. In the past, this
decline could be balanced by the addition of new,
smaller fields. To continue this in the future too, further
new already-discovered fields must be connected in
time (see illustration on the right). These fields are
further to the east or north of existing pipelines in
regions that are difficult to develop.
If the new fields are connected in time, the
production can be increased by around 1 % each
year in the coming years. In comparison, an annual
production increase of 2 % over a longer period does
not seem realistic.
11
Supply Situation: Natural Gas
Single Field Analyses of Russian Natural Gas
Data source: Laherrere, LBST
This illustration shows what can happen if the new
fields are not connected in time.
If the connection is delayed by just two years due
to difficulties in developing the new fields and
high capital requirements, the result is a slump
in production for the next ten years. These types
of delays are not at all improbable; they can be
observed in many large projects in difficult regions
(for example, in the Sachalin Peninsula).
12
This would have serious consequences for the
European gas supply. A decrease in gas supply
would be unavoidable due to the simultaneous
decrease in domestic production. The prices for natural
gas would also probably increase dramatically.
This also shows that realistically, there is no scope
to introduce natural gas as a fuel for the transport
sector on a grand scale.
Supply Situation: Coal
World Coal Production – History and Scenario
The illustration shows the historic development of
the production of hard coal and lignite. (Germany
contributes around one third of worldwide lignite
production.)
Based on the current data on worldwide coal
reserves, a scenario of possible future production
is depicted. The aggregated production follows a
logistical curve (adjusted to previous production and
to reserves). The result is that the annual worldwide
coal production could be increased by 60 % and
would reach its maximum in around 2050.
In theory, the decrease in crude oil and natural gas
could, therefore, partly be offset by an increase in coal
usage for primary energy. In the conversion to usable
end energy, in particular, to fuel, significantly higher
losses are generated with coal, so that replacement
is clearly more difficult.
The specific CO2 emissions of hard and lignite
coal are significantly higher than with crude oil
and natural gas (for Europe in g CO2 per kWh:
Natural gas 203, petrol/diesel 264, hard coal 346
and lignite coal 414). So for each energy unit of
natural gas that is replaced by hydrogen obtained
from coal or by liquid fuel, between around 700 and
800 g CO2 /kWh are emitted – in other words, 3.5 to
4 times as much (efficiency factor is around 50 % or
45 % respectively). A sequestration of the CO 2
produced is, therefore, inevitable; otherwise the
use of coal would be completely irresponsible
from a climate protection viewpoint. If technically
feasible, this does however reduce the available
energy share. So far, there is no environmentallyfriendly, reliable proven way to store CO2 for a long
period.
13
Supply Situation: Coal
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage with Usage of Fossil Energy Sources
Data source: ECOFYS 2004
It is in principle possible to capture the greenhouse
gases produced when fossil energy sources such
as coal, oil, and natural gas are used for energy
purposes, and store them in suitable geological
formations. A primary suitable solution would be
old oil and gas fields either on land or “offshore”
under the seabed. There are two approaches to
the separation of carbon dioxide: Collecting the
waste gases after the combustion process or the
upstream “separation” (reformation) of fossil fuels
into hydrogen and carbon dioxide. In particular, for
coal usage – and here lies the main potential for
this technology – the reformation (gasification) of the
coal is considered, since a highly efficient Combined
Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) power station is only
possible with a gaseous fuel. While conventional
power stations can only achieve a maximum
efficiency level of 49 %, CCPP power stations can
reach 60 %.Large-scale production of hydrogen is a
precursor of CO2-free usage of coal. Hydrogen, which
in principle can also be used as a fuel.
There are two significant hurdles to consider:
technical/economic aspects and the question of
availability of secure storage capacity. Until now
there have only been rough estimates of storage
capacities (see illustration) where the lowest
value represents the highest probability, whereas
the optimistic scenario contains some highly
speculative assumptions.
14
Using the potential of high to medium probability
as a base, the reservoirs in Europe would be
filled after 8 to 19 years, if the total carbon
dioxide emissions could be collected. If only the
emissions from central power generation were
taken into account, the reservoirs would be available
for between 23 and 55 years.
However, these are only theoretical values that
highlight the potential in principle. The geographical
location of the stores and power stations sites are
not taken into account here. Not every country has
storage capacities and the transport of carbon dioxide
over hundreds or thousands of kilometres will be
expensive and require energy input. Aside from this,
the time span also plays an important role. In fact,
all new construction of large coal-fired power
stations should consider their geographical vicinity
to suitable CO2 reservoirs. And although large power
stations have been planned for lifetimes of several
decades, it currently cannot be observed that the
vicinity to CO2 storage locations is an important
location criterion.
Supply Situation: Nuclear Energy
Worldwide Nuclear Power Station Capacities
Data source: IAEA June 2005
Scenario: LBST 2005
The age structure of the nuclear reactors operating
worldwide today essentially determines the future
role of nuclear energy. Assuming an average reactor
lifespan of 40 years, by the year 2030, 75 % of the
reactors installed today must be disconnected
from the grid. If the number of reactors is to remain
constant, 14 reactors must be built and put into
operation each year throughout this time period.
If the contribution of nuclear energy were to be
considerably increased, the availability of uranium
ore would soon reach its limit. Today the contribution
of nuclear energy to primary energy production
is around 6 % (whereby power is converted into
primary energy with a factor of 3); the share of power
generation is around 18 %-exactly the same as the
contribution of hydropower.
However, worldwide, only around 28 reactors are
under construction, and these could start operating
in the next 5 to 7 years. Eleven of these reactors have
been “under construction” for more than 20 years.
Under these circumstances, it is not possible to talk
of a renaissance in nuclear energy.
The only alternative is a move towards
a plutonium economy using fast breeder reactors.
This is a t echnology that has not yet been
tested commercially, and it is unlikely that it will
become available for the next one or two decades.
Forecasts 1975 – 2004 by IAEA on World Nuclear Power Capacities
Data source: IAEA
Graphics: LBST
The ambitious forecasts of the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) on the global development
of nuclear power so far never came true.
Remarkable is the position of the International
Energy Agency (IEA), which in its scenarios
assumes an unchanging role of nuclear power in
the future.
15
Supply Situation: Nuclear Energy
World Uranium Resources
Data source: BGR, 2003
Against the background of necessary construction
and the limited uranium resources, it is highly
improbable that nuclear energy will play a larger
role in the future.
Even China’s expansion plans do not change this
estimate. By 2020 China plans around 30 GW of
nuclear power capacity. With an annual expansion
requirement in power production capacity of
around 14 GW, these 30 GW would cover only
around 3.5-4 % of the Chinese power requirements
in 2020.
16
Therefore, nuclear energy does not seem to be
a medium or long-term option for generating
hydrogen – apart from those few cases where
the share of nuclear energy in power generation
is particularly high and power can be made
available in low load periods, as for example, in
France.
Nuclear energy proponents foresee the use of
4th generation nuclear reactors after 2030, which
produce hydrogen directly with a high temperature
process.
Contribution of Fossil and Nuclear
Energy Sources: LBST Scenario
Data source: Oil, Gas, Coal- Nuclear Senario, LBST 2005
The picture in the LBST scenario shows the future
availability of fossil and nuclear energy sources.
According to today’s knowledge, a strong decline
in oil production after peak production is highly
probable. The reason lies in the oil production
technologies used today which aim to exhaust
the fields as quickly as possible. When the peak
production has been reached a quick drop of the
production rates is experienced.
The peak production for oil, and subsequently for
natural gas, will leave a noticeable gap in world
energy supply, which cannot be filled by other
fossil primary energy sources.
The coal reserves known to us today with a range
of coverage of around 160 years, will indeed
permit increasing production until around 2050.
However, one should take into account that the
data quality is poorer than for crude oil. Since 1992,
China has been reporting exactly the same reserve
figures each year. In this period around 20 % of the
“proven” reserves already have been used up.
China currently produces the most coal worldwide
(almost double that of the USA). However, China’s
reserves are only half those of the USA. For Canada,
almost exactly the same reserve figures are
published today as in 1986.
In its report to the World Energy Council in 2004,
Germany devalued the “proven” hard coal reserves
by 99 % (from 23 bln to 183 mln tonnes), the lignite
reserves by 85 % (from 43 bln to 6.5 bln tonnes).
Increased use of coal results in increased carbon
dioxide emissions.
17
Contribution of Fossil and Nuclear Energy Sources
IEA Scenario (World Energy Outlook)
Data source: Historical data - BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Outlook - International Energy Agency 2004, 2005
The core statements of the IEA World Energy
Outlook are:
• The energy supply of the coming 20 years will
continue the trend of the past 20 years.
• There will be no restrictions on oil, gas, or coal,
whether due to scarcity of resources or climate
protection reasons.
• There is no reason to bring renewable energies
to the market – the share of so-called New
Renewable Energies (solar, wind, geothermal) will
be around 2 % in 2030.
• Only the share of traditional biomass usage will
increase following the trend of the past decades.
18
The following points are completely ignored:
• Fossil energies are increasingly difficult to exploit
and therefore are becoming more expensive.
• Environmental reasons will put increasing pressure
on restricting the burning of coal, oil, and gas.
• Renewable energies show an average growth
rate of far more than 10 % per year over the past
15 years, and have become increasingly costefficient; the price gap between conventional and
non-conventional energy supply is becoming ever
smaller.
LBST – Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO 2005)
Worldwide installations by 2030
Data source: LBST- “Alternative World Energy Outlook 2005”
The LBST scenario “AWEO 2005” describes
the possible worldwide growth in renewable
energies up to 2030, classified according to
energy sources. LBST is of the opinion that this
scenario describes the upper limit of a possible
expansion in the use of renewable energies in
the coming decades. This is not a forecast of a
probable development. It is also not an assertion
that an expansion based on the scenario would be
desirable for each energy source.
The illustration shows the possible power
generation from renewable energy sources in 2030
according to the AWEO 2005 scenario of LBST.
In this scenario, almost 3,400 Mtoe of end energy
(power, heat, and fuel) is produced in 2030. The
generated amount of power is around 20,400 TWhe
(this is more than the amount produced worldwide
today of 16,500 TWhe).
Heat generation is mainly provided by solar-thermal
and geothermal plants, as well as by biomass
(biomass has the largest share of these alternative
heat fuels with 94 %). Hydropower and geothermal energy show the
smallest growth. Hydropower has already been used
intensively for decades. By 2030, over 40 % of the
(ecologically sustainable) potential will have been
developed.
The solar-thermal power generation potential
(SOT) for Asia was not investigated in detail. If considered, the total potential of SOT would
significantly increase again.
19
LBST – Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO 2005)
Alternative Forecasts for the Development of Wind Power
Data source: LBST, July 2006
The illustration shows different worldwide
forecasts vs actual development for wind power
All forecasts by the IEA on the installation of wind
power generation capacities have proven to be
too pessimistic in the past. They have consistently
lagged behind the actual development (comparable
to how the IEA apparently systematically
underestimates the future contribution of Renewable
Energies).
Wind power will probably exceed 1 % of worldwide
power generation for the first time in 2007.
In China, renewable power generation capacity
should reach around 60 GW by 2020; of this, about
one half will come from wind energy.
The yellow curve shows the assumptions of the
LBST-AWEO 2005 scenarios.
The scenario “Windforce 12” by Greenpeace
describes the expansion of wind power that is
necessary if around 10 % of the predicted power
consumption is to be covered by wind energy in
2020.
The Danish consulting company BTM forecasts
an installed capacity of 120 GW by 2020.
20
LBST – Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO 2005)
Contribution of Renewable Energy Sources and Usage
Data source: LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook 2005
Almost every renewable energy source has the
potential to cover the present world power demand
of around 18,000 TWh/a (this corresponds to
1,550 Mtoe in the above illustration).
Solar power (either from photovoltaics or from solar
thermal power stations – SOT) has by far the highest
potential. It exceeds the world power demand by a
factor of ten.
The power generation potential of biomass is very
uncertain due to competition concerning land usage
and other biomass applications.
Since 1990, renewable power production has
increased by 40 %, the largest part of this growth
coming from hydropower and biomass. Other
renewable sources are still only considered at a very
low level, although their potential is big as is their
growth over the past decades. In contrast, renewable
power production has a share of 18 % of the total
power generation of around 18,000 TWh.
Today, the renewable share of primary energy
production is around 15-16 %.
21
LBST – Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO 2005)
A Possible World Energy Scenario
Data source: LBST Alternative World Energy Outlook 2005
Most world energy scenarios for the next 20 to 50
years are built-on three premises:t
(1) An increase in demand is forecast based on
population growth and economic development.
(2) Fossil energies are sufficient to cover this increase
in demand.
(3) Growth rates for renewable energies are very low
due to their high costs when compared with fossil
energies.
These assumptions overlook fundamental
aspects:
(1) Climate change is speeding up. This increases
the pressure to change to fuels with lower
emissions.
(2) Fossil fuels are limited: The peak production of
crude oil is imminent; for natural gas, in one to
two decades; and the coal resources are not
sufficient to fill the gaps.
(3) In a global context, nuclear energy does not make
a noticeable contribution.
(4) I n contrast, renewable energy technologies
have an important and lasting potential. Market
introduction needs time; however it is advancing,
accompanied by continuous technical and
economic advances.
22
The scenario shown in the illustration considers
these aspects. The availability of oil and gas will
probably decrease quicker than renewable energy
capacity can be built up. Therefore, it is possible
that the total energy supply will first decrease in the
coming decades.
From Primary Energy to Hydrogen
Hydrogen as a fuel. Up to now, only the options for
the future generation of primary energy have been
considered. This is the basis. Hereafter, the options
for the production of hydrogen will be discussed. This
mainly considers which energy chain has the lowest
conversion losses and the largest supply potential.
In addition, the consideration of competitive usage
will be decisive. Society will have to decide how
much of the limited energy supply can be used for
each final application. A fundamental difference between the energy supply
structures today and in the future must be considered.
Today, fuels with small losses are generated from
primary energy, whereas power is generated with
high conversion losses of 50-70 %. In the long-term,
the relationship will reverse: power from renewable
energies will gain the status of a primary energy
that is generated with small losses; in contrast, high
losses will have to be accepted with the generation
of fuels. 23
Potential of Renewables for Transportation Fuels from Renewable Energies
Technical Potential of Various Biofuels in the EU 25
Data compilation and graphics: LBST
1) IEA-Statistics 2001-2002
2) Gross (without the energy efforts for the supply of the fuels e.g. the use of external energy for the ethanol plant)
The illustration shows the possible contribution
of biogenic fuels to meet European fuel demand.
The depicted potentials do not consider the usage
competition of biomass for stationary power and
heat uses. The energy demand for the transport sector in EU 25
is just over 14,000 PJ/a in 2002, including around
12,000 PJ/a for road transport.
In the best case, the biomass potential accepted
as reliable for the EU 25 allows, depending on the
type of fuel produced (plant oil ester, ethanol, BTL,
biogas or hydrogen), a coverage of the fuel demand
for road traffic of between 5 % (RME), 25 % (biogas,
BTL, ethanol from lingo cellulose) and almost 30 %
(high-pressure hydrogen).
This shows that even “2nd generation” biofuels
are not capable of replacing large amounts of fossil
fuels in the long term. If a comparable mobility rate,
particularly for individual transport, is to be maintained,
it must be possible to generate automotive fuels from
more sources than just biomass. With its primary
energy flexibility, hydrogen could be an ideal solution
in this case, in particular, when mobility cannot be
guaranteed with electric power, directly or indirectly
(battery).
With a long-term substitution of crude oil, there is
still between 70 % and 95 % to be replaced by other
sources… or to be saved.
24
Regenerative Potentials for Fuels from Renewable Energies
Technical Potentials for Hydrogen from Renewable Power in EU 25
Data compilation and graphics: LBST
1) IEA-Statistics 2001-2002 2) still exploitable within the EU
The illustration shows the possible contribution
from fuels generated from renewable power to
meet the European fuel demands.
In contrast to the available biomass potentials in
EU 25, the renewable power potentials to generate
fuels are significantly larger. The production of highpressure hydrogen and liquid hydrogen is shown.
Both the fuel demand for the total road transport as
well as the demand for other transport types can
be completely covered even with the conservative
scenario. In the optimistic scenario, the coverage of
the demand is clearly exceeded (+40 %).
However, there are restrictions in that, for renewable
power, there is usage competition with stationary
applications. Therefore, it is not clear what breakdown
will finally take place.
The possible role of alternative fuels from fossil
sources remains to be investigated. Natural gas will
probably not play a significant role as a fuel. Finally
there are CTL (Coal-to-Liquids) or hydrogen produced
from coal with CCS for automotive fuels.
On the way to a world with optimum energy
utilization, it would be sensible to use renewable
energies for power generation and fossil energies
directly for fuel generation. The losses are higher
with power generation using fossil energy sources.
This would however require that coal-fired power
stations were decommissioned and the coal used
for fuel generation.
In any case, the importance of hydrogen as a fuel
is clear. If renewable energy sources only are taken
into account, hydrogen will dominate. Those with the
greatest potential point to electrical energy. Energy
that is stored as hydrogen could be widely used
throughout the automotive sector.
25
Regenerative Potential for Fuels from Renewable Energies
Production per Hectare and Year for Various Fuels in the Transport Sector
*) more than 99 % of the land area can still be used for other purposes e. g. agriculture
The illustration shows a comparison of specific
energetic area yields for biogenic fuels with
hydrogen, which is generated from wind and
photovoltaic power. Hydrogen from photovoltaics surpasses all
competitors in its area-based efficiency by more
than a factor of 3 (Hydrogen from wind or biogas)
and by a factor of 6-7 (all other biofuels).
Even in the worst case, hydrogen from wind power
performs at least as well as from biogas (and
significantly better than all other biogenic fuels).
The “onshore wind” technology and, also
photovoltaics, although restricted, have an advantage in that the land can also be used for the cultivation of biomasses.
Number of autos (hybrid), that can be supplied per hectare
Annual automobile mileage: 12,000 km
*) more than 99 % of the land area can still be used for other purposes e. g. agriculture
The illustration shows how many automobiles can
be provided with fuel per hectare, based on fuel,
generation path, and drive technology.
• Hydrogen from wind power in fuel cell vehicles
generates at least 1.5 times as much yield per
hectare.
The most efficient alternative is hydrogen for
fuel cell automobiles:
• Hydrogen from photovoltaics is 6-7 times more
efficient per hectare than the biogenic paths.
• B iogenic hydrogen in fuel cell automobiles is
as good as biogas in hybrid automobiles with a
combustion engine.
In view of the previously illustrated potentials for
biogenic fuels and fuels produced from electricity, the
medium and long-term advantages and opportunities
of hydrogen are obvious.
26
Costs
Cost Reduction for Renewable Energies
Data source: EWEA, May 2004
Data compilation and graphics: LBST
The illustration shows the change in power costs
for power generation from renewable energy
sources in the past and the predicted cost reduction
potential in the future. The power generation costs
are depicted versus the installed capacities.
The power generation costs are shown in €/kWhel
based on the cumulated installed capacity in GWel
for photovoltaics and wind power.
Significant cost reductions are expected, in particular
for photovoltaics (PV), which is still at the start of
widespread commercialization. A significant reduction
in power costs has already been observed. In the
illustration, the change in power costs is shown for
various local characteristics. 1000 kWh per kW peak
capacity or one year equivalent full load operation
period of 1000 h/a is reached e. g. in Bavaria. A
equivalent full load operation period of 2000 h/a is
achieved in North Africa. Today more than 5 GW
are installed. In a study carried out by the German
Aerospace Center (DLR), an installed capacity of
around 200 GW is predicted for 2020 in the “Solar
Energy Economy (SEE)” scenario.
A further cost reduction is also to be expected for
wind power.
In the illustration, the trend in power generation costs
is shown for various location qualities. By the end of
2005, more than 59 GWel were installed. In a study
carried out by the European Wind Energy Association
(EWEA) and Greenpeace (“Windforce 12”), an
installed capacity of around 200 GW is expected by
2010. For 2025, around 2000 GW are expected.
27
Costs
Fuel Costs “Well to Tank”
Crude oil based gasoline and diesel: price ex filling station without taxes in June 2006
The illustration shows the fuel production costs at
independent gas stations for the reference fuels
petrol and diesel as well as for natural gas (and
fuels produced from natural gas) and the various
renewable produced fuels (each without tax).
Natural gas can be produced for around 1/2 to 2/3
of the cost of petrol and diesel. The production costs
for all other alternative fuels are almost double.
High-pressure hydrogen from natural gas and from
waste wood as well as Fischer Tropsch diesel from
short rotation forestry have comparable prices.
Ethanol can be at the same price or less, highpressure hydrogen from short rotation forestry is
somewhat more expensive, high-pressure hydrogen
from renewable power costs up to 50 % more.
28
A detailed analysis of costs shows, for example,
that the generation of Fischer-Tropsch diesel from
short rotation forestry is relatively expensive,
whereas hydrogen from short rotation forestry
ex.conversion plants is clearly more cost
efficient.
Hydrogen looses this advantage before it reaches
the gas station due to the more expensive
infrastructure requirements for storage, transport,
distribution, and the gas station. However, the well-to-wheel costs discussed later
are more meaningful.
Costs
Fuel Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Supply and Use
This illustration compares fuel costs at independent
gas stations with the greenhouse gas emissions
of the fuels.
First generation biogenic fuels (RME, ethanol) show
a high range of variation in emissions and sometimes
only lie just under the reference fuels.
Second generation biogenic fuels (BTL, methanol,
and ethanol from lingo cellulose) as well as hydrogen
from renewable power bring a clear reduction in
emissions.
Costs
Fuel Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions “Source-to-Wheel”
Reference vehicle: VW Golf
Non-hybrid
If the costs of the various fuels are compared
“Well to Wheel“, a different picture is obtained if
the efficient fuel cell drive train for the hydrogen
vehicles is included.
Costs are given for vehicle km travelled, which range
from just under to a maximum of 50 % above the
costs of conventional petrol and diesel for almost all
renewable hydrogen paths.
High-pressure hydrogen from natural gas can enable
specific fuel costs that are up to 40 % lower than for
conventional petrol or diesel.
The greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen
extracted from natural gas and used in fuel cell
vehicles are up to 50 % lower than those for petrol
and diesel. The greenhouse gas emissions from
hydrogen produced from renewable sources are 1/7
or less.
Mid- to long-term, hydrogen can enable vehicles
to achieve “zero” local emissions and drastically
reduce greenhouse gas emissions (to zero) at a
comparable cost.
29
Hydrogen as a Fuel: Realization
The Roadmap of the European HyWays Project (1)
Data source: LBST 2003
A European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap up to
2050 has been developed as part of the EU-funded
Project HyWays. 10 countries are contributing
national views on which hydrogen sources should
be produced at what point in time. These 10
viewpoints are summarized as a representative
Roadmap for Europe. Both stationary and mobile
hydrogen applications are considered, whereby
the emphasis is on the promising use of hydrogen in
road transport.
The driving forces for this action are reduction of
climate gases, the security of energy supply, and
international competitiveness.
The assessment of the German partners from
industry, politics, and science who are associated
with the “HyWays” project are given below. In
particular the results of the discussion on the
hydrogen production pathways for Germany:
• Transition phase after 2010: Significant contribution
of hydrogen as by-product of chemical processes.
Additionally, production through onsite steam
reforming of natural gas or through electrolysis.
Consumption centers are developing in highly
populated areas and for hydrogen transport liquid
or pressurized gaseous transport by trailer is
playing a major role.
• A fter 2020 growing demand will expand the
possibilities for distributed and central hydrogen
production. Another increasingly important
option will be the electrolytic production
through renewable energy or the electricity grid.
Depending on hydrogen penetration rates and
the feasibility of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS),
natural gas and coal in central plants could
contribute to CO2 neutral hydrogen production.
At this point distribution by pipeline will start to
play an important role. Distributed production of
hydrogen through steam reforming and electrolysis
will be more prominent, especially in remote
country areas.
30
Hydrogen as a Fuel: Realization
The Roadmap of the European HyWays Project (2)
• A fter 2030, hydrogen will make a significant
contribution as an automotive fuel and will achieve
a noticeable role in stationary applications. If
the sequestration of carbon dioxide is established
on an industrial scale, central hydrogen production
from fossil energies using steam reforming (natural
gas or coal gasification) will dominate production
in Germany – depending on the long-term price
development of these energy sources.
• Although competition in various application areas
(transport, power, heat) will grow, the share of
renewable hydrogen will also grow. The most
fundamental renewable production path will
be wind energy (on- and offshore). This will be
generated using the power grid and converted
either centrally or locally using electrolysis. This
supply is supplemented by hydrogen from biomass
gasification. Other renewable energy sources
(geothermal) could help to meet the growing
hydrogen demand. The import of hydrogen (for
example, from Norway using a European pipeline
network) may be an option. The transport of
hydrogen will use pipelines or liquid hydrogen
trailers, depending on demand and location of
final application.
In particular, a comparison of alternative supply
paths in combination with various drive train
technologies – in a “Well-to-Wheel” approach
– shows the potential of renewable concepts
compared to improved conventional approaches
with regard to energy usage, climate gas
emissions, and costs.
Abbreviations
API
ASPO
AWEO
Barrel
BGR
Measure of viscosity of crude oil
Association for the Study of Peak Oil
Alternative World Energy Outlook (Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik)
1 barrel of oil = 159 Liters (kb = Kilobarrels, Mb = Millions of Barrels, Gb = Billions of Barrels)
Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften
und Rohstoffe)
BTL
Biomass to Liquids
BTM
Dry Biomass
CTL
Coal to Liquid
CCS
Carbon Capture Sequestration
CGH2
Compressed Hydrogen
EUR
Estimated Ultimate Recovery
EWWA European World Economy Archive (Europäisches Weltwirtschaftsarchiv)
Gigawatt (1 GW = 1000 Megawatt = 109 Watt)
GW
GuD
Combined Cycle Gas and Steam Power Station (Gas and Steam Turbines in Combination)
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency (Internationale Atomenergieagentur)
IEA
International Energy Agency (Internationale Energieagentur)
IHS
Industry Database
LH2
Liquid Hydrogen
Nm3
Standard Cubic Meter
Mtoe Million Tonnes Crude Oil Equivalent (1 toe = 11630 kWh)
Peak Oil Peak of Worldwide Oil Production
PV
Photovoltaics
RME
Raps-Methyl-Ester (Biodiesel)
SOT
Solarthermal Power Production
SEE
Solar Energy Economy
Tcf
Trillion Cubic Feet
WEO World Energy Outlook (Energy Report by IEA)
31
European Hydrogen Association (EHA)
Gulledelle 98
B 1200 Brussels
Belgium
Telephone+32 2 7759077
Fax
+32 2 7725044
E-mail [email protected]
Internet www.h2euro.org