Rick Thoman
Climate Science and Services Manager
National Weather Service, Alaska Region
Alaska Tribal Conference on Environmental Management
October 24, 2016, Anchorage Alaska
 What’s
happened with Alaska’s weather and climate since last
autumn?
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


It’s been warm, and it’s stayed warm
Rain and snow much more variable
Oceans are very warm
Low sea ice
 How



does this compare to history
Really warm…unprecedented warm
Oceans are at or near warmest in the past century
Sea Ice extent very low even compared to recent years
 This
coming winter…what to expect
Ranks 1925-2015
3
3
 No
Alaska: 17th warmest
Alaska: 7th wettest
significant coastal flooding storms
 Ex-Hurricane Oho brushed SE in October
 Damaging winds in eastern Aleutians in November
 Freezing rain problems in Southcentral
 Locally snowy
Ranks 1926-2016
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
 Severe
Alaska: 2nd warmest
Alaska: 19th driest
storminess in the Aleutians (December)
 Complete lack of extended deep cold (-49°F Arctic Village)
 Very wet northwest Gulf Coast
 Extremely dry North Slope, West Coast & Interior
 Southcentral & Southwest snow cover mostly higher than
winter 2014-15
Ranks 1925-2016
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
Alaska: 1st warmest
 Extremely

Alaska: 18th wettest
mild statewide
All-time state record high for March at Klawock (71°F)
 Early
loss of snowpack
 Very early river ice break-up, generally low water
 Precipitation not so far from normal
 Exceptionally windy North Slope (April)
Ranks 1925-2016
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
Alaska: 2nd warmest
 Very

Alaska: 12th wettest
Wet Interior (especially June and July)
Flooding, mudslides
 Moderate
wildfire season
 Especially warm Southwest
 Many reports on LEO of very early berries (and lots of them)
Near max
Bristol Bay
& Cook Inlet
Near max
Bering Sea
Kuskokwim at Napaskiak Apr 18, 2016
• Record or near record early over most of mainland Alaska
• Bethel: April 20, by far earliest & three weeks earlier than average
• Eagle: Ice moved April 26, second earliest
• Circle City: first time in memory boats in the water before May
Seasonal total:
• 574 wildfires
• 500,095 acres
•
•
Most acreage
burned in mid-July
Several smaller
fires near
communities
 Persistent
warm does not make the
headlines but the slow grind drives
environment change
 Decreases in snowpack duration
and sea and river ice cover drive
many environmental changes
 Warmer temperatures magnify
importance of rain and snow
variability
Erosion at Kaktovik
Photo Courtesy USGS
 Lowest
seasonal sea ice extent near
Alaska did not occur until early
October
 Mid-October sea ice exceptionally
low


Only 2012 lower in the Beaufort Sea
Only 2007 lower in the Chukchi Sea
 Following
the cold spring
of 2013, the heat is on
 Nothing like this in the
historical record
 Oceans and atmosphere
very warm
 Persistence
Courtesy Los Angeles Times
 Sea
Ice starting over low and the ocean surface temperature
remain very warm
 Unlike last winter, which feature a strong El Niño, this year we
expect a weak La Niña



El Niño and La Niña refer to ocean and atmosphere conditions in the
tropical Pacific
Influences where the giant tropical thunderstorms are favored, which
in turn modifies the jet stream over the Pacific
Past La Niña events



often feature significant cold snaps
Often have multiple spells of mild and cold
Differences between early winter (dry) and late winter (wet)
45%
45%
33%
33%
22%
37%
22%
33%
30%
33%
34%
33%
33%
34%
33%
Above%
Normal%
Below%
45%
45%
33%
33%
22%
22%
37%
37%
33%
33%
30%
30%
33%
30%
33%
33%
34%
33%
37%
34%
33%
Above%
Normal%
Below%
 Keep
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NWS websites (Fairbanks, Anchorage and Juneau)
climate.gov
Facebook: National Weather Service Alaska Region
Twitter: #akwx
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP)


up with Alaska weather and climate happenings
Highlights and a Monthly Climate Webinar
ANTHC’s LEO network: keep those observations coming