Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 DOI 10.1007/s12665-014-3423-2 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Slope creep behavior: observations and simulations Kuang-Tsung Chang • Louis Ge • Hsi-Hung Lin Received: 21 December 2013 / Accepted: 7 June 2014 / Published online: 20 June 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014 Abstract Rock slopes undergoing long–term effects of weathering and gravity may gradually deform or creep downslope leading to geological structures such as bending, bucking, fracturing, or even progressive failure. This study uses geomechanics-based numerical modeling to qualitatively explain the cause and evolution of slope creep behavior. Constitutive models used include the creep, Mohr–Coulomb, and anisotropic models. The last two models are used with the strength reduction in calculation. First, the results of field investigation around a landslide site occurring in slate are present. The causes and modes of creep structures observed on slopes and underground are studied. Second, the study investigates the influences of slope topography and anisotropy orientations on slope creep behavior. Finally, progressive failure of slopes with different shapes is examined. The simulated results show that the bending type of structures develops near slope surfaces, and the buckling type of structures is associated with the deformation or slides of a slope. The creep pattern varies with the orientation and position of an original planar structure. The shear zone involves a joint or fracture along which displacement has taken place. Moreover, creep behavior is more significant on slopes with greater height and inclination as well as on steeper portions K.-T. Chang (&) Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung 402, Taiwan e-mail: [email protected] L. Ge H.-H. Lin Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 106, Taiwan H.-H. Lin Central Geological Survey, MOEA, Taipei, Taiwan whether on concave or convex slopes. In addition, with the same topographic conditions, consequent slopes with coinciding cleavage and obsequent slopes with steep cleavage result in greater creep behavior. Without the effects of anisotropic cleavage, concave and straight slopes develop failure surfaces from the crowns downwards, whereas convex slopes develop failure surfaces from the toes upwards. Keywords Slope Creep Numerical modeling Progressive failure Slate Introduction Slope creep is the behavior describing slow downward movements of slopes due to long term influence of gravity. The movements may be very slow without surface geomorphic evidences or can result in abnormal curvature of trees, tilt of poles, or subsidence of structures and roads. Creep–related structures in rocks, which may take geological time to form, have been observed underground and on outcrops. Varnes (1978) related bedrock flow to creep, and Goodman (1993) pointed out that creep involves movement or failure modes of sliding and toppling. Surface displacements of creeping slopes can be investigated using extensometer, GPS, geodetic networks, aerial photographs, LiDAR, InSAR, etc. (Wangensteen et al. 2006). Willenberg et al. (2008) examined the deformation patterns of a slope with comprehensive investigation and monitoring data over numerous years. Using cosmogenic dating of deformation structures, El Bedoui et al. (2009) estimated the surface displacement rates of a rock slope as 4–30 mm/year in the past 10,000 years and as 80 mm/year of higher rate in recent 50 years. Because creep is a time– 123 276 dependent behavior with slide velocity increasing before total collapse, the characteristics of creep velocity is typically used for the time prediction of total collapse (Mufundirwa et al. 2010; Federico et al. 2012). In soil and rock mechanics, creep refers to continuing deformation of a material under constant effective stress (Mitchell and Soga 2005; Goodman 1989). A slope may have experienced numerous episodes of sliding or deformation over decades whether induced by raining or earthquake, which changes effective stress states in the slope. However, geologists and geomorphologists commonly describe it as a creep slope as it keeps deforming without total collapse during a period of time, ignoring the changes of effective stress that cause the movements. For example, Martin (2000) considered slow quasi-continuous slope movements as creep processes for a time scale of decades. From a macroscopic viewpoint, creep behavior implies strength reduction of rock mass (Goodman 1993; Shin et al. 2005). For constitutive modeling of rock creep behavior, some researchers defined strength degradation as a function of time (Fakhimi and Fairhurst 1994; Aydan et al. 1996; Malan 1999). Slope creep phenomena and structures have been summarized in Turner and Schuster (1996). The mechanical behavior was studied through laboratory experiments on rocks (Shin et al. 2005; Fabre and Pellet 2006). Dubey and Gairola (2008) studied the influence of rock salt anisotropy on creep behavior and mentioned that the influence decreases in high stress levels. Furthermore, constitutive models were developed to describe creep stress–strain relationships (Desai et al. 1995; Shao et al. 2003). Many of slope instability were attributed to creep behavior of rock mass, which was incorporated in the analyses and modeling of slope behavior (Grøneng et al. 2010; Fernández-Merodo et al. 2012). Creep behavior of a rock as in laboratory experiments is attributed to damage and strength degradation of rock. In microscopic viewpoint, it is associated with the formation and propagation of fractures. At the slope scale, the term progressive failure is used to describe a slope that involves multi-temporal movements and takes a period of time to collapse. The gradual formation of a failure surface involves progressive development of persistent discontinuities in rock mass (Petley et al. 2005; Fischer et al. 2010). Eberhardt et al. (2005) simulated progressive development of a failure surface in a slope with progressive strength degradation corresponding to different degrees of weathering. Pellegrino and Prestininzi (2007) investigated a deep-seated deformed slope and emphasized the influence of weathering on its creep behavior. For a short time scale or engineering context, the progressive development of a failure surface results from the strain softening 123 Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 behavior of materials. For a long time scale, progressive development of a failure surface may be attributed to weathering of rocks resulting in progressive strength reduction. Creep behavior and progressive failure describe different aspects of slope failure processes. In the long term, both macroscopically involve strength degradation of rocks. Many geological structures observed in the field are associated with creep behavior of rock mass. Creep structures can form over very large time scales including the geological time scale and as such cannot be replicated in the field or laboratory under normal gravity conditions. Numerical and physical modeling provides tools capable of explaining the creep geological structures that formed in a long time scale. This study looks at the processes and mechanisms of slope creep behavior in a sense of a long time scale using the finite element numerical modeling. In the first part, the results of field investigation around a landslide site occurring in slate are presented, and the causes and modes of creep structures observed on slopes and underground are studied. The numerical modeling with creep stress–strain behavior and strength reduction is shown to be able to simulate the creep structures observed in the field. The second part of the paper investigates the influences of slope topography and anisotropy orientations on slope creep behavior. Finally, progressive failure of slopes with different shapes is examined. Creep structures observed in the field Slates are extensively distributed in the west portion of the central ridge of Taiwan. The properties and orientations of slaty cleavage are related to slope deformation. The studied landslide, which is located in central Taiwan slid whenever heavy rainfall occurred in recent decades. The unstable mass is around 800 m long and 500 m wide and elevations from 1,100 to 1,500 m (Fig. 1). The bedrock involved in the rock slope creep is slate that belongs to the Miocene Lushan Formation. The unstable slope is above a village and gives rise to safety concern. The government is processing the relocation of the village. Surface investigation shows that the strikes of cleavage range from N10 to 40E, which are not parallel to the strike of the slope face, and the dips of the cleavage from 40 to 70 toward east. The representative attitude is expressed as N30E/57SE. The geologic section along the slide direction is shown in Fig. 2. According to the results of geophysics refraction exploration and borehole logs (Soil and Water Conservation Bureau of Taiwan 2006), the slope is defined as composed of 20 m thick weathered slate near the surface and fresh slate at bottom. The weathered slate is further Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 277 Fig. 1 Panoramic view of the investigated area. The geologic section of AA0 is shown in Fig. 2 Fig. 2 Geologic section along AA0 in Fig. 1. The inclination of the cleavage is apparent dip. The data of the borehole is shown in Fig. 6 divided into highly weathered slate at upper part and moderately weathered slate at lower part. This study does not focus on its slide mechanism. Instead, the creep patterns and structures observed in the field and in the borehole logs are shown, and then these phenomena are explained using numerical modeling. Chigira (1992) classified four types of creep structures based on field observations (Fig. 3). Figure 4a, b are creep patterns observed around the surface of the landslide and correspond to the bending type and the buckling type in Fig. 3, respectively. Figure 5 shows other structures observed in the field. In addition to the creep structures observed on slope surfaces, similar phenomena are observed underground from drilled cores around the middle of the landslide body (Fig. 6). Numerical modeling The numerical modeling performed in this project utilized the geotechnical software Plaxis (Brinkgreve et al. 2008) to simulate the creep structures in slopes. The mathematical model based on continuum mechanics is solved by the finite element method. Readers may refer to Chang et al. (2010) for brief description for the finite element method or to Zienkiewicz and Taylor (2000) for details. As mentioned previously, slope creep behavior may be simulated with a creep stress–strain relationship or with strength reduction of rock materials. In this study, the numerical modeling involves three constitutive models: (1) creep, (2) Mohr– Coulomb, (3) anisotropic models. The creep model can simulate slope creep behavior directly. The Mohr– 123 278 Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 Fig. 3 Four types of creep patterns proposed by Chigira (1992) Coulomb model is an elastic-perfectly plastic simple model, and the anisotropic model can reflect the anisotropic behavior caused by slaty cleavage or joints. Both of them are used together with the strength reduction calculation. The creep model The creep model has five main parameters. The modified compression index k*and modified swelling index j define loading and unloading volumetric behavior, respectively. The modified creep index l*defines the time dependent creep behavior. The cohesion C and friction angle u define strength of a material. Experiments for rock creep behavior are mostly on weak rocks that can yield creep behavior in relatively short time. Little information is available regarding the creep behavior of slate. The mechanical behavior of the three slate layers of various degrees of weathering is estimated with reference to the Hoek–Brown failure criterion (Hoek et al. 2002) and the investigation report for our study site (Soil and Water Conservation Bureau of Taiwan 2006) (Table 1). Herein, we consider the strength properties of highly and moderately weathered slate as residual strength according to Cai et al. (2007). The corresponding Mohr–Coulomb rock mass parameters are obtained using the software RocLab (Rocscience Inc 2013) with the consideration of stress levels. The friction angle of the moderately 123 Fig. 4 Creep structures observed in the field. a The bending type and b Buckling type weathered slate is greater than that of the fresh slate because the relevant stress level of the moderately weathered slate is much less than that of the fresh slate. Despite that, the shear strength of the moderately weathered slate is certainly less than that of the fresh slate. With Young’s modulus E taken as the deformation modulus (Table 1) and Poisson’s ratio m taken as 0.3, bulk modulus for the three slate layers of various weathering degrees can be estimated as K = E/[3(1-2m)]. The modified compression index k* is determined as k ¼ P K ð1Þ where P and K are the averaged mean stress and bulk modulus of each slate layer. Analogous to soils, j is taken as one fifth of k* (Brinkgreve et al. 2008). With the assumed modified creep index l*, the parameters for the creep model is determined in Table 2. The numerical experiments on the highly and moderately weathered rocks show typical creep behavior in a conventional triaxial stress condition (Fig. 7). The rock specimens are initially subjected to confinement of 50 kPa. Then, the axial stress is increased to 350 kPa and yields instantaneous elastic Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 Fig. 5 Geological structures observed in the field. a The kink fold shows twist of the cleavage. b The large fracture speculated to form with the coalescence of slaty cleavage and joints. c The shear zone 279 formed under slope deformation. d The fracture or shear zone might be weathered and eroded out and formed the opening Fig. 6 Borehole logs and creep structures: the location of the borehole is shown in Fig. 2. a Orientations of the cleavage and degrees of fracturing vary along drilled cores. b Speculated corresponding creep structures: the reverses of dip directions are observed in continuous drilled cores. The shear zones are preferably named in view of the cores with great degree of fracturing, mud, fragments, and crushed quartz grains 123 280 Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 Table 1 Estimated rock mass parameters applying the Hoek–Brown failure criterion Highly weathered slate Moderately weathered slate Fresh slate Hoek–Brown parameters Intact uniaxial compressive strength (MPa) 20 40 60 Geological strength index 13 29 70 Material constant (mi) 7 7 7 Disturbance factor (D) 0 0 0 Cohesion (kPa) 44 176 3,009 Friction angle () 37 45 38 4 27 893 338 1,527 21,984 Mohr–Coulomb parameters Tensile strength (kPa) Deformation modulus (MPa) Table 2 Parameters used in the creep model Highly weathered slate Moderately weathered slate Fresh slate Unit weight cm (kN/m3) 26 26.7 27 Modified compression index k* 1.8E–4 1.6E-4 1.2E-4 Modified swelling index j* Modified creep index l* 3.5E-5 1.0E-04 3.1E-5 6.0E-05 2.4E-5 1.0E06 Cohesion C (kPa) 44 176 3,009 Friction angle u () 37 45 38 Fig. 7 Numerical creep behavior of the highly and moderately weathered slate under a triaxial stress state. The instantaneous elastic and creep strains of the highly weathered slate are distinguished Table 3 Parameters used in the Mohr–Coulomb model Highly weathered slate 3 Unit weight cm (kN/m ) 26 Young’s modulus E (MPa) 338 Poisson’s ratio m 0.3 Cohesion C (kPa) 44 The dilation angle is set as zero Friction angle u () 37 axial strain, followed by creep axial strain under the constant deviatoric stress of 300 kPa. Tensile strength (kPa) 4 Strength reduction The dilation angle is set as zero The strength reduction in calculation is associated with the stress–strain relationships of the Mohr–Coulomb and anisotropic models. From macroscopic and long time scale viewpoints, creep and progressive failure of rock slopes are attributed to strength degradation of rocks. In the numerical modeling, strength reduction is performed through a Phi-c reduction approach, which is commonly used for the safety factor calculation in numerical methods. Herein, the development and processes of slope deformation along with the strength reduction are of concern. The reduction factor RF is defined as RF ¼ tan u C ¼ tan ur Cr ð2Þ where u is and C are the input strength parameters, i.e., friction angle and cohesion; ur and Cr are reduced friction angle and cohesion in the calculation. 123 Young’s modulus and cohesion have assumed gradients of 70 MPa/m and 10 kPa/m from the surface to the depth The Mohr–Coulomb model describes isotropic elastic perfectly-plastic behavior with parameters shown in Table 3. In addition, the slope model has increments of Young’s modulus and cohesion from the ground surface to the depth to reflect the fact that rocks behave stiffer and stronger with reduced degree of weathering as depth increases. According to slope height and the difference in parameters between the highly weathered slate and fresh slate, the gradient of Young’s modulus and cohesion are assumed as 70 MPa/m and 10 kPa/m from the surface to the depth. For example, the stiffness and cohesion reach 7338 MPa and 1044 kPa at a depth of 100 m. The smaller the gradient, the more the slope deformation extending to the depth. The anisotropic model is used to simulate the slaty cleavage as a set of discontinuity. It has five parameters to Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 281 Fig. 8 The five elastic parameters for the anisotropic model z x y y E1 = / z z z 1= x / z E2 = / x x y G2 = z yz / yz 2= x / z = y / z define elastic deformation (Fig. 8). E1 and m1 are Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio for rock as a continuum. The remaining three elastic parameters describe the behavior influenced by the staty cleavage. Additional parameters are cohesion and friction angle, which define the strength along the cleavage. Results and discussion The first part of the results qualitatively simulates observed creep structures of the bending type, buckling type, and shear zones around the Lushan landslide. The creep behavior of a slope is influenced by many factors such as slope height and inclination, the shape of a slope, and the anisotropic structure of rock. The second part uses simple geometry models similar to the Lushan slope to perform a sensitivity analysis on each of these factors. Modeling of creep structures The observed creep structures around the Lushan landslide are simulated using the finite element program with the creep constitutive model first and then the Mohr–Coulomb one. For a time duration of 10 years, the creep behavior yields the greatest displacement at the surface, which is red color in Fig. 9a. Figure 9b shows that the displacement decreases with depth in the sections. The creep pattern corresponds to the bending type that has no defined slide surface. Rock slope creep structures could also be reproduced in the numerical models using the strength reduction technique and the Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model. The parameters are shown in Table 3. Figure 10 exhibits the displacement pattern as strength decreases to a reduced factor of 2.3. Sections B and C in Fig. 10b show the (a) Section A Section B (b) Fig. 9 Simulated results using the creep model: (a) the greatest displacement of around 5 cm at the surface and (b) displacement patterns at sections A and B bending and buckling types of creep structures. Sections A and C with different orientations show creep patterns differently. The creep patterns vary with the position and orientation of an original planar structure such as foliation. In view of the occurrence of shear zones such as those in Fig. 6, the numerical model is further imposed with two interfaces parallel to the slope surface to represent discontinuities underground (Fig. 11). The interface elements allow for relative movement parallel or perpendicular to the interface. Both kinds of displacements are composed of elastic and plastic parts. The elastic displacement parallel or perpendicular to the interface is associated with 123 282 Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 shear strength of surrounding slate. The dark blue plunging layer is an example of exaggeration to represent a inclined cleavage plane to see shearing along the discontinuities of weakness. The simulated results (Fig. 11) with a strength reduction factor of 2.3 mimic the shear zones in Fig. 6, the cause of which may be attributed to the existence of underground discontinuities as well as rock creep behavior. Effects of topography (a) Section A Section B Section C (b) Fig. 10 Simulated results using strength reduction: a selected sections and b displacement patterns at sections A, B and C. The red represents the relatively greatest displacement on the slope (a) The sensitivity to the topography investigated includes varying the slope height, inclination, and slope shapes. The numerical models vary in slope heights of 250 and 500 m as well as slope inclinations of 20 and 45. The surface rock is the moderately weathered slate with the thickness of 20 m, and the bottom rock is the fresh slate. The corresponding geomechanical input parameters are specified in Table 2. The creep model is used to compare the greatest displacements in the four slope models after 1,000 days (Fig. 12). The results show that for the same slope height, greater slope inclination yields greater creep displacement. On the other hand, when the slope inclination is fixed, greater slope height yields greater creep displacement. That is, slopes of larger scale or greater inclination facilitate creep behavior. For straight slopes, creep behavior develops from the crown and gradually extends downwards (Fig. 12), and it is pronounced around the crowns. The influence of the longitudinal slope curvature is investigated in Fig. 13. As in the previous models, the state of the slope is investigated after 1,000 days of displacement, and it has a 20 m thick layer of moderately weathered slate on top of fresh slate. The results show that creep behavior is likely to occur at the toe of a convex slope but at the crown of a concave slope. The rock slope creep behavior is concentrated at the steeper portions of both slopes. Effects of anisotropy Discontinuities Section A (b) Fig. 11 Displacement patterns of shear zones with the two parallel discontinuities the stiffness and the thickness of the interface. The plastic displacement parallel to the interface occurs when the shear stress exceeds the shear strength of the interface, and the plastic displacement perpendicular to the interface occurs when the normal stress exceeds the tensile stress of the interface. The shear zones are qualitatively simulated. The shear strength of the interfaces is defined as half the 123 Slaty cleavage is a metamorphic structure associated with the arrangement of platy minerals that results in anisotropy, which influences not only strength but also deformation behavior of rock. The structure may be thought of infinite parallel planes of weakness, and no certain weak plane can be determined at certain position. The studied slope geometry is similar to the landslide site at Lushan with height of 400 m and surface slope of 27. The slope stratigraphy assumes highly weathered slate of 20 m thickness at top and fresh slate at bottom. The cleavage structure is considered in the anisotropic model, whose parameters are shown in Table 4. The parameters for a continuum are Young’s modulus E1 and Poisson’s ratio m1 Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 283 Fig. 12 Displacements after 1,000 days of creep. The red represents the relatively greatest displacements in the slopes, which are 1.1 cm in (a), 3.1 cm in (b), 1.6 cm in (c), and 3.6 cm in (d) Slope angle: 20 Slope angle: 45 250m 250m 0 0 (a) (b) 500m 500m 0 0 (c) (d) Fig. 13 Displacements in the convex and concave slopes after 1,000 days of creep. The red represents the relatively greatest displacements in the slopes Table 4 Parameters used in the anisotropic model 3 Highly weathered slate Fresh slate Unit weight cm (kN/m ) 26 27 Young’s modulus E1 (MPa) 338 21,984 0.3 Poisson’s ratio m1 0.3 Young’s modulus E2 (MPa) 169 10,992 Poisson’s ratio m2 0.3 0.3 Shear modulus G2 (MPa) 65 4,228 Cohesion C (kPa) 44 3,009 Friction angle u () 37 38 The dilation angle along the planes of weakness is set as zero with shear modulus G1 = E1/[2(1 ? m1)]. Additional parameters are Young’s modulus E2, Poisson’s ratio m2, and shear modulus G2 to account for the anisotropic behavior. The anisotropy is named cross anisotropy or transverse isotropy, in which material is isotropic within a plane and symmetric about an axis. For slate, it is isotropic in a plane of cleavage, and the axis of symmetry is in the direction normal to the cleavage planes. From Amadei (1996), we know that the ratios of E1/E2 and G1/ G2 are usually greater than unity, and no particular trend for m1 and m2. Thus, the ratio of E1/E2 and G1/G2 is assumed as 2, and m2 the same as m1 (Table 4). The cohesion and friction angle are the Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model strength parameters along the cleavage. Six slope conditions with different cleavage orientations are subjected to strength reduction to a factor of 3 (Fig. 14). The comparison of critical positions and displacement levels are shown in Table 5. The slopes with horizontal and vertical cleavage have critical positions near slope toes (Fig. 14a, b). Other slope conditions have critical positions near crowns or upper portions of the slopes (Fig. 14c–f). The cleavage dips of 30 and 60 represent gentle and steep structures, respectively. The consequent slope with cleavage dip of 27 represents a dip slope, where the dips of the slope surface and of the cleavage coincide (Fig. 14e). Among the critical positions of the six slope conditions, lower displacement values appear at the slopes with horizontal and vertical cleavage (Fig. 14a, b), the obsequent slope with gentle cleavage (Fig. 14c), and the consequent slope with steep cleavage (Fig. 14f). However, it is noted that deep slide may evolve from the crown in the consequent slope with steep cleavage 123 284 Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 extends to the middle of the slope at a reduction factor of 1.6. The slide surface further develops to the lower slope as the reduction factor reaches 2.4. Similarly, the concave slope has initial displacements or deformation at the crown, which is the steeper portion of the entire slope. The deformation extends downwards with further strength reduction, eventually forming a continuous failure surface. Convex slopes, which may be caused by expeditious undercutting of rivers or uplift of mountains are not as common as straight and concave slopes. The initial strength reduction results in the displacements concentrated near the toe of the convex slope (Fig. 16). Further strength reduction results in the deformation or displacements towards upslope until the formation of a continuous through going failure surface. Unlike the straight and concave slopes, with the degradation of rock the failure surfaces develop upwards from the toes of convex slopes. Fig. 14 Deformation after strength reduction. The orientations of cleavage are a horizontal, b vertical, c 30 in the obsequent slope, d 60 in the obsequent slope, e parallel to the surface of the consequent slope as 27, and f 60 in the consequent slope. The red shows positions where relatively greatest displacements occur (Fig. 14f). The Lushan landslide is of this type, where the slide surface evolved along the cleavage from the crown of the slope (Fig. 2). The great dip of the cleavage in the consequent slope enables the development of a deep slide surface, but it has not yet extended to the lower slope. On the other hand, the results show that anisotropy plays an important role in the obsequent slope with steep cleavage (Fig. 14d) and the dip slope (Fig. 14e), which yield much greater displacements than other slope conditions. Progressive failure Progressive failure is studied using the Phi-c reduction approach to approximate rock degradation. The stress– strain behavior is defined as the Mohr–Coulomb model with the parameters of highly weathered slate at the surface (Table 3). Straight and concave slopes show similar evolution processes of failure (Fig. 15). For the straight slope, the displacements concentrate at the crown of the slope as the reduction factor increases to 1.3. The deformation Discussion Rock slope creep behavior is a process of slope failure, and recognition of its geomorphic expression may be useful for the prediction of the time of slope collapse. Deep-seated landslides are commonly controlled by geologic structures. The formation of the slide surfaces may be progressive through a period of time before total collapse. The geomorphological precursors due to the progressive development of a large-scale slide surface can help delineate areas that are prone to a catastrophic landslide. The numerical results from the creep constitutive model and from the Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model with strength reduction show the same trend of rock slope creep behavior. In other words, the initial critical position appears at the crowns of straight and concave slopes, whereas it appears at the toes of convex slopes. Apart from the convex slopes, which are unusual and generally near rivers, it is believed that the slide surfaces of deep-seated landslides evolve from the crowns of slopes and extend downwards if slope masses are homogeneous without the influence of discontinuities or defects. Margielewski (2006) also mentioned that most head scarps of the studied landslides form at heads of valleys along a joint set. The initiation of a slide surface may cause scarps on slope surfaces, and the downward movements of the upper slope Table 5 Effects of cleavage orientations on slope creep behavior Inclination of cleavage with respect to the slope Horizontal Vertical Obsequent 30 Obsequent 60 Consequent 27 Consequent 60 Critical position Around toe Around toe Around crown Upper portion Upper portion Upper portion Greatest displacement 2 9 10-3 m 5 9 10-3 m 6 9 10-3 m 0.73 m 2.7 m 6 9 10-3 m 123 Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 Fig. 15 Displacements after strength reduction. The straight slopes at a RF = 1.3, b RF = 1.6, and c RF = 2.4. The concave slopes at d RF = 1.1, e RF = 1.4, and f RF = 1.7. The red represents the relatively greatest displacements in the slopes Fig. 16 Displacements of the convex slop after strength reduction at a RF = 1.3, b RF = 1.6, and c RF = 1.9. The red represents the relatively greatest displacements in the slopes compress the lower slope, resulting a slight convex shape at that section. The Lushan slope is the case (Fig. 2). Therefore, scarp or subsidence may be signs of movements at top of a potential slide body and thought of precursors of large-scale landslides. The time of collapse depends on when a slide surface extends to its lower slope, which is influenced by the geologic structures, speed of weathering, fracturing of rock mass, the magnitude of triggering, etc. In 285 view of the great uncertainty, monitoring of a potential landslide will be helpful. After the movements at the upper slope, the monitoring should concentrate more on the lower slope. When the displacement rate at the lower slope becomes greater than before, the fractures underground coalesce and the slide body is ready to collapse (Petley et al. 2005). A critical displacement rate will be reached where the slope can be regarded in imminent danger of rapid and catastrophic collapse. The critical displacement rate on a slope surface may depend on the lithology of rocks, thickness of a weak or slide layer, depth of a slide surface, stress levels, etc. The results of the slope stability analyses with anisotropic structures show that dip slopes and obsequent slopes with a steep anisotropic structure yield greater displacements under the same strength reduction (Table 5). This is consistent with that sliding and toppling are two of the most commonly reported failure mechanisms. With the same rate of weathering and critical displacement, dip slopes and obsequent slopes with a steep anisotropic structure have more possibility than other slopes to yield displacement greater than the critical displacement, leading to landslides. For obsequent slopes, creep behavior is pronounced and antiscarps are common on slope surfaces (Bovis and Evans 1996; Jarman 2006). Qi et al. (2010) pointed out that landslide events were more frequent at consequent slopes and obsequent slopes during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Dip slopes with the favorable anisotropic structure may form deep-seated landslides. On the other hand, obsequent slopes with the steep anisotropic structure may be prone to shallow landslides unless additional discontinuities or joints of favorable orientation form a deep failure surface. For simplicity, the numerical modeling only considers the effects of topography and anisotropy in two dimensions. In a large natural slope, slope creep behavior may additionally influenced by groundwater, hard and weak layers, in situ stress, and discontinuities in a complex threedimensional condition. Brideau and Stead (2012) investigated the three-dimensional influence of the orientations of three discontinuity sets on slope failure mechanisms. Nevertheless, they did not consider the influence of the basal discontinuity dip angle, and the spacing of discontinuities had to be specified in the distinct element modeling. The slaty cleavage is thought of infinite planes of weakness that causes anisotropic behavior, and the persistence of the cleavage is much more pronounced than that of joints. In addition, a natural slope has highly weathered rock on the surface and gradually less weathered rock distributed below the surface. The simulations using the creep model and anisotropic model need to specify weathered layers of certain thickness, which cannot reflect gradual increases of stiffness and strength distributed perpendicularly to the slope surface. The vertical layering and downward increases 123 286 Environ Earth Sci (2015) 73:275–287 of stiffness and cohesion in the Mohr–Coulomb model are expected to approximately reflect field conditions. The numerical modeling involves several constitutive models and slopes of great height, in which stress levels vary greatly from slope surface to the bottom. The model parameters are based on a review of the published literature and with careful assumption. However, the study does not aim at quantified numerical results, but to simulate some creep structures and show how slope creep behavior is influenced by slope height and inclination, the shape of a slope, and the anisotropic structure of rock. Conclusions Creep behavior describes strain under constant effective stress. It applies to the long term behavior of slopes under gravity while being affected by the weathering of rock mass leading to degradation of rocks. The variation of cleavage orientations may be partly attributed to slope creep behavior. The numerical modeling with the creep model and the strength reduction approach is first used to simulate the phenomena or creep patterns observed around the Lushan landslide site. Then, the study is extended to the influence of slope height and inclination, the shape of a slope, anisotropic geologic structures, as well as progressive development of failure surfaces. Other features obtained from the numerical modeling are as follows. • • • • The bending type of structures commonly develops near the slope surface, and the buckling type of structures is associated with the deformation or slides of a slope. The creep pattern depends on the orientation and position of an original planar structure in the deformed slope. In addition, the shear zone involves a joint or fracture along which sliding has occurred. Topography has influence on slope creep behavior. Slopes with greater inclination or height result in greater creep behavior. Moreover, creep is more pronounced at the steeper portions of either concave or convex slopes. With the same topographic conditions, the orientation of an anisotropic geologic structure influences creep behavior as well. Consequent slopes with coinciding cleavage and obsequent slopes with steep cleavage result in greater creep behavior. Without the effects of anisotropic structures, failure surfaces develop downwards from the crowns of straight or concave slopes, whereas they develop upwards from the toes of convex slopes. 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