Ｓｈｒｉｎｋｉｎｇ Local Cities in Japan
Making Communities sustainable
under depopulation and rapid aging
The North-Central Area of
Kyoto Prefecture in Anguish
over Depopulation
COST
Sept. 2013
Prof. & Dr. Hiroshi Yahagi
Ryukoku University
１） General Outlook of Depopulation
and Aging in Japan
２） Challenges of Local Cities Facing to
Depopulation and Aging
One Example : Ayabe City in the
Northern Area of Kyoto-prefecture
1
General Outlook of Depopulation and
Aging in Japan
<Challenges of Demographic Change in Japan>
Japan is the most advanced in developed countries
1) Depopulation
2) Aging (older than 65 years old
128milions
87millions
2
Challenges of Demographic Change in Japan
Population
2010
128,057
2060
86,737 (1000) ▲32.3％
Japan is to lose 1/3 of its population in the next 50 years
Aging
23.0%
39.9%
(over 65) Working Age 63.8%
(15-64)
△16.9㌽
50.9%
2 per 5
2035: Aging 33.4%
2046： less than 100 m.
国勢調査＋社会保障・人口問題研究所(National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ＮＩＰＳＳ
Ｒ）
Challenges of Demographic Change in Japan
１）The Causes of ｄｅpopulation are due to the low
birthrate.
The low birthrate is due to ① with later marriage
② ｆｅｗｅｒ ｃｈｉｌｄｒｅｎ
ｔｈｅ ｔｏｔａｌ ｆｅｒｔｉｌｉｔｙ ｒａｔｅ（ＴＦＲ）
2010
1.39
2024
1.35
2060
1.33
２）aｇｉｎｇ is going ahead due to
① the low birthrate
② longevity
2010
the average
m. 79.64
longevity (years old) f. 84.19
2060
86.39
90.93
( NIPSSR)
3
Ｌｉｖｉｎｇ ｌｏｎｇｅｒ ｉｓ ＯＫ！
Pｒｏｂｌｅｍｓ ａｒｅ ｔｈｅ ｓｈａｐｅ ｏｆ
ｄｅｍｏｇｒａｐｈｉｃ ｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅ
From Tree to Kite
＜From Ministry of H. L. & W.>
Japanese Population Pyramids
4
Who will
support
whom?
Population Age 65 and over
---------------------------Population Age 20-64
＜From Ministry of H. L. & W.>
With this changing structure of population,
Japan has to face up to many difficulties
economically and socially
5
First of all
⇒
ｉｎｆｕｌｕｅｎｃｅｓ on Ｎａｔｉｏｎａｌ Ｅｃｏｎｏｍｙ
With the decreasing working population, the growth
of national economy is expected to become
lower.
・ GDP is decided with Population × Productivity
・ To Keep individual income stable, we have to
develop New Urban Industries of high-productivity.
ex. Life-science, energy-saving technology, highspeed-transportation, welfare-related technology・・・
Secondly
Soaring Social welfare expenditure
6
１）The total social security expenditure has more than doubled
over the past 20 years.
２）That is expected to increase further as the population ages.
＜From Ministry of H. L. & W.>
Today:
• Social security is based on big amounts of
“public budget” and social insurance payment.
• The public expenditure for social security is
becoming a huge part of the national budget.
• The budget money comes from tax and bonds.
Actually the amount of bonds is getting bigger year by year.
Not sustainable any more !
• We have to stop passing the burden on to future
generations.
<Japan has to face up to the “Comprehensive Reform of Social
Security and Tax” , which prevents the burden from being
passed forward>
7
Thirdly
Marginalization of local cities becomes a
dominant landscape in the countryside of Japan
Especially in remote communities from the city
center of local city
marginalization of city: that cannot sustain a certain
degree of quality of urban facilities
— education, medical services,
retail, and cultural functions
Today more than 50 % of cities with
the population of 100,000 or over is
decreasing population in Japan.
The smaller the city is,
the more marginalized it is!
8
Introducing
Small Challenges and their Small
Achievements by a Small city
A Case Introduction: Ayabe City:
a typical local city in the northern area
of Kyoto Prefecture
Tango Area
Miyazu
Maizuru
Fukuchiyama
Ayabe
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Tango Area
1) The climate of Tango is very severe especially in winter
season with heavy snow.
2) Tango Area is situated at mountain areas where the
space for agriculture is limited.
3) The spatial developments (ex. highways, high-speed
railways and industrial developments) have been done
along the Pacific Ocean for the last half century, ignoring
the areas along the Japan Sea.
Tango is situated in the so-called backyard of Japan.
4) Besides agriculture, forestry and fishy, its main economy
was a textile industry.
But the textile industry had gone out as the result of
global competition with developing countries.
Today no private investment is not expected there so far.
100
（１０００）
Depopulation of 4 cities in Tango
92
▲23.4％
82
80 Maizuru
舞鶴市
▲23.4%
Depopulation 50
in next 25
years
▲23.1
72
Fukuchiyama
福知山市
38
21.5
29 Ayabe
綾部市
15.7 Miyazu
宮津市
▲27.0％
0
2010
2035
（年）
10
Aging(%)
2035
39.0
35.9
34.9
32.0
31.4
Tango Area
Ayabe was historically a Textile Industry
City with the population of over 50,000.
But Ayabe has lost its industrial
base completely
⇒ a typical shrinking city
2010
Ayabe
35,836
population
33.2% aging
11
Recently City of Ayabe introduced
2 policies to keep communities
sustainable under rapid
depopulation and aging
Ⅰ．<Newly setting up the Section for Increasing Permanent
Population, that charges the following works>
1. Policies to increase permanent population
a. Introducing vacant houses to would-be residents
b. Assisting for new farmers
c. Introducing job-opportunities, for instance in the section of
social works
2. Financial support for new comers who like to have a
house within the city.
a. ￥ 3milions loan at low rate for renovating a vacant house
b. Renting vacant houses as public houses at low rent after
the city rents theｍ from the owners
Increasing: 98 families & 230 persons from 2007 to 2012
!
12
Ⅱ．<Setting up the Section for Marginalized Communities and making
the Ordinance of Settlements at Riverheads>
Marginalized communities ⇒ definition: over 50% of residents is 65 years old
and over.
56 marginalized settlements among 196 settlements
in Ayabe
Objects of the ordinance:
1) Promoting settlement of new comers
2) Promoting exchange with people living in cities
⇒ Networking with cities in metropolitan areas
3) Discovering natural resources and nurturing them
as local community business ⇒ Ｔhat is, Discovering
local GIVENs and Developing them
5 settlements at the marginalized areas are
designated as “Settlements at Riverheads”
by the ordinance until 2013
What has been going
at the ５ marginalized settlements
after the ordinance was set ?
13
What has been going?
１） Promoting settlement of new comers
a. subsidy for new settlement: ￥50,000 per
month for the first year
b. supplying low-rent-public houses for new
settlement
What has been going?
2) Promoting exchange with people living in cities
a. ownership of vegetable-producing fields by city-living
people
b. home-delivery of products to city-living people with
￥5000 as annual member’s fee
c. having festivals and sports events inviting city-living
people
With these relations, people living in cities come to the remote
settlements occasionally, and find out the charm of living in a
country-side.
14
ownership of vegetable-producing fields by
city-living people
Festivals
15
Ｗｈａｔ ｈａｓ ｂｅｅｎ ｇｏｉｎｇ？
3) Discovering natural resources and nurturing them as
local community business
a. making & selling cookie made from horse chestnuts
b. opening the MARKET along the main street on a
mountain pass to the next city and selling local
products
c. The local people started a small factory of
manufacturing food products by using local resources
(rice, nuts, vegetables, fruits and mushrooms)
by themselves with the small subsidy from the city of
Ayabe、creating small job opportunities.
cookie made from horse chestnuts
16
<Population of 5 Settlements>
450
With the Local Ordinance
400
9 families and 25 persons have
come in for the last 5 years
350
300
A small change, but meaningful change for
the remote & isolated communities
250
200
150
100
Turning year
50
0
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2012
Å Small Lesson
Combination of 3
factors
Making
Networks
with outside
world
Combination of 3 factors
To Succeed in Keeping
Communities Sustainable
Activating
Spantaneous
Movement
by local people
33.3%
33.3%
Utilizing &
Nurturing
Local Resouces
33.3%
17