This issue brought to you by
2018 House Overview: Majority
Closer Than It Appears
By Nathan L. Gonzales
February 27, 2017
Volume 1, No. 4
2018 House Ratings
Toss-Up (2R, 3D)
AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D)
NJ 5 (Gottheimer, D)
MN 2 (Lewis, R)
TX 23 (Hurd, R)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
Tilt Democratic (2D)
Tilt Republican (3R)
FL 7 (Murphy, D)
CA 49 (Issa, R)
NV 3 (Rosen, D)
FL 26 (Curbelo, R)
NY 19 (Faso, R)
Lean Democratic (4D)
Lean Republican (11R)
FL 13 (Crist, D)
CA 10 (Denham, R)
MN 1 (Walz, DFL)
CA 25 (Knight, R)
MN 7 (Peterson, DFL)
CA 39 (Royce, R)
MN 8 (Nolan, DFL)
CO 6 (Coffman, R)
GA 6 (VACANT, Price, R)
IA 1 (Blum,R)
NE 2 (Bacon, R)
NY 22 (Tenney, R)
PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R)
PA 16 (Smucker, R)
VA 10 (Comstock, R)
Likely Democratic (6D)
Likely Republican (12R)
CA 7 (Bera, D)
AZ 2 (McSally, R)
CA 24 (Carbajal, D)
CA 21 (Valadao, R)
IL 10 (Schneider, D)
CA 48 (Rohrabacher, R)
IA 2 (Loebsack, D)
IA 3 (Young, R)
PA 17 (Cartwright, (D)
KS 3 (Yoder, R)
WI 3 (Kind, D)
ME 2 (Poliquin, R)
MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
GOP
DEM
NJ 7 (Lance, R)
115th Congress
241
194
NY 24 (Katko, R)
Currently Safe
213
179
PA 6 (Costello, R)
Competitive
28
15
Needed for majority
218
PA 7 (Meehan, R)
TX 7 (Culberson, R)
After a couple of cycles of being ignored, the
fight for the House might finally get its time to
shine.
Republicans hold a narrow 52-48 majority
in
the
Senate, but the slate of states up for
RATINGS
re-election next year makes it difficult for
Toss-Up
(2R,
Democrats
to 3D)
gain control. In the House, Republicans have a significant
AZ 1 (O’Halleran, D)
majority and favorable maps in key states, but history and an unpopular
MN 2 (Lewis, R)
president
are working
NH 1 (Shea-Porter,
D) against them.
Democrats
need
NJ 5 (Gottheimer, D)to gain 24 seats in 2018 to regain the House majority.
TX
(Hurd, R)party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm
The23
president’s
elections, including an average loss of 33 House seats in those 18 cycles.
Tilt Republican (3R)
There are 23 Republicans representing districts Hillary Clinton carried
CA 49 (Issa, R)
over
Trump,
FL 26Donald
(Curbelo,
R) which are among the 59 initial targets released by
the
DCCC.
In
comparison,
12 Democrats represent Trump districts.
NH 19 (Faso, R)
But it’s not clear whether the 2016 presidential results represent a
Lean
(11 R)
trend Republican
or an aberration
in key districts. And it will probably take the 2018
CA 21 (Valadao, R)
results to answer that question.
CA 25 (Knight, R)
now, Democrats
are trying to convert the wave of anti-Trump
CAFor
39 (Royce,
R)
enthusiasm
represented
by the post-inaugural women’s march and
CO 6 (Coffman, R)
GA
6 (VACANT,
R)
subsequent
townPrice,
hall meetings
into quality recruits in as many
IA
1 (Blum,R) districts as possible.
congressional
NE 2 (Bacon, R)
Formal filing deadlines won’t start until late this year, but Democrats
NY 22 (Tenney, R)
might
want to getR)
as many commitments as possible before the June
PA 8 (Fitzpatrick,
special
election
in
Georgia’s
6th District, when Democrats could lose
PA 16 (Smucker, R)
VA
(Comstock,
R) by just a single point, and some of the initial
in a10
seat
Trump carried
enthusiasm gets dampened.
Likely Republican (12 R)
While Democrats are encouraged by the town hall activism and
AZ 2 (McSally, R)
Republicans
are generally
dismissive, neither party has empirical evidence
CA 21 (Valadao,
R)
demonstrating
whether
the
CA 48 (Rohrabacher, R) public outrage is from Democratic voters
IA
3 (Young, R)
or disaffected
Republicans and new voters. The latter could change the
KS
3 (Yoder,
R) and improve Democratic prospects, next year.
electoral
equation,
ME 2 (Poliquin, R)
The current playing field (28 Republican seats and 15 Democratic
MN 3 (Paulsen, R)
seats)
is probably
NJ 7 (Lance,
R) too small for Democrats to win the majority, but
Republicans
shouldn’t
get too comfortable.
NY 24 (Katko, R)
PA In
6 (Costello,
R) we listed 33 competitive seats (23 held by Democrats
January 2009,
PA
(Meehan,
R)
and710
held by Republicans).
The playing field then ballooned to 107
TX 7 (Culberson, R)
competitive seats (including 98 Democratic seats and just 9 Republican
seats)
before Election
Tilt Democratic
(2 D) Day after the cycle spiraled out of control against
President
Barack
FL 7 (Murphy, D) Obama and his party.
NVFor
3 (Rosen,
D)
now, Democrats
are in for a district-by-district slog against a
slate of tough GOP incumbents, even if many of them represent Clinton
Lean Democratic (4 D)
districts. But a combination of Democratic enthusiasm and Republican
FL 13 (Crist, D)
apathy
couldDFL)
create a midterm wave against GOP candidates.
MN 1 (Walz,
MN 7 (Peterson, DFL)
MN 8 (Nolan, DFL)
InsideElections.com
Likely Democratic (6 D)
House Overview: Alabama - California
Alabama.
2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%.) 2016
Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. DCCC Target. The congresswoman
was re-elected with less than 50 percent last year when a conservative
write-in candidate received nearly 11 percent. Roby vocalized her
disappointment with Trump after the Access Hollywood Tape released
during the last campaign. Democrats need Roby to lose in next year’s
primary or benefit from another third-party candidate since the 2016
Democratic nominee couldn’t reach 41 percent. Solid R.
Arizona.
1st District (Tom O’Halleran, D, elected with 51%). Trump
48%. NRCC Target. O’Halleran was elected to Democratic Rep. Ann
Kirkpatrick’s seat against a flawed candidate. If Republicans can secure
a credible challenger who isn’t broke after a late primary, this will be a
top takeover opportunity for the GOP. O’Halleran, a former GOP state
legislator, will have a congressional voting record to defend and must
keep up enthusiasm among voters on the reservations. Toss-up.
2nd District (Martha McSally, R, re-elected with 57%). Clinton
49.6%. DCCC Target. The congresswoman has proven to be one of
the GOP’s toughest incumbents, but Democrats can’t give up on a
district Clinton carried in the presidential race. Democrats need some
Republicans who are disappointed with the lack of action on the Hill to
stay home and hope Trump and Congressional Republicans energize
Hispanic voters. It’s also cheap to advertise in this Tucson-based district.
Likely R.
9th District (Kyrsten Sinema, D, re-elected with 61%). Clinton 55%.
NRCC Target. Republicans aren’t going to defeat the congresswoman,
but the Tempe/suburban Phoenix seat could be competitive when she
decides to run statewide. So far, that doesn’t appear to be this cycle.
Solid D.
Arkansas.
2nd District. (French Hill, R, re-elected with 58%). Trump 52%.
DCCC Target. Democrats hope the lack of a presidential race allows
them localize against the congressman and buck the trend of the district.
It starts as a long shot. Solid R.
California.
7th District (Ami Bera, D, re-elected with 51%). Clinton 52%.
NRCC Target. The congressman is always a target and has close races,
but consistently wins. Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones has some
baggage, but GOP strategists believe he can make up for his 8-point
loss from 2016, when he was weighed down by a blowout presidential
race and a U.S. Senate race with two Democrats at the top of the ballot.
Likely D.
10th District (Jeff Denham, R, re-elected with 52%). Clinton 49%.
DCCC Target. Democrats closed the gap to about 3 points last cycle,
but haven’t been able to get over the top. They’ll probably look for a
challenger besides Michael Eggman, who has lost the last two races.
Denham is a tough incumbent, but the Central Valley district might be
shifting away from him. Lean R.
21st District (David Valadao, R, re-elected with 57%). Clinton 55%.
DCCC Target. The presidential performance keeps attracting Democrats
to this southern Central Valley district, but Valadao just demolishes
anyone in his path. Democrats need to find a candidate who can fight on
local issues, including water, and drive a wedge between Hispanic voters
and the congressman. Likely R.
24th District (Salud Carbajal, D, elected with 53%). Clinton 57%.
NRCC Target. Former Democratic Rep. Lois Capps survived a couple of
close calls in midterm elections, so this could be a test for Carbajal, who
just won her open seat in Santa Barbara. Republican Justin Fareed, who
lost last year by 6 points, may run again. But he could have to contend
with the traditional midterm dynamic that cuts against the president’s
party. Likely D.
25th District (Steve Knight, R, re-elected with 53%). Clinton 50%.
DCCC Target. Democrats had high hopes for Bryan Caforio against the
congressman in this Simi Valley district, but Knight prevailed by 6 points.
The district is covered by the expensive Los Angeles media market,
so it can take time for messages to seep into voters’ minds, and multigenerational Hispanic voters aren’t as friendly to Democratic candidates.
Caforio ran a good campaign and could run again, but other Democrats
seem likely to look as well. Lean R.
32nd District (Grace Napolitano, D, re-elected with 62%). Clinton
67%. The 80-year-old congresswoman and her husband have battled
@InsideElections
facebook.com/InsideElections
InsideElections.com
2
February 27, 2017
Nathan L. Gonzales
Editor & Publisher
[email protected]
@nathanlgonzales
Stuart Rothenberg
Senior Editor
[email protected]
@stupolitics
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales
provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns
for Senate, House, governor and president.
It does not endorse candidates.
Will Taylor
Production Artist
Annual subscription (24 issues/year):
• Individual - $249 + sales tax
• Silver License - $2,500 (tax included)
• Gold License - $5,000 (tax included)
77 K Street NE • 7th Floor
Washington, DC 20002
202-546-2822
Copyright 2017, Inside Elections LLC.
All rights reserved.
Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
House Overview: Colorado - Florida
health issues, leading to retirement speculation. One of her former staff
members, former Monrovia mayor Mary Ann Lutz, would run in an
open seat, which is heavily Democratic. Solid D.
34th District (VACANT, D). Clinton 84%. 2017 Special Election.
Democratic Rep.
Xavier Becerra
resigned his seat
after being confirmed
as California’s
attorney general.
State Assemblyman
Jimmy Gomez is
the frontrunner, but
former Los Angeles
City Council aide
Jimmy Gomez
Sarah Hernandez and
others are running as well. The downtown Los Angeles district is heavily
Democratic. Solid D.
36th District (Raul Ruiz, D, re-elected with 62%). Clinton 52%.
NRCC target. Republicans are hoping this turns into an open seat,
but until it does, the congressman should be fine. Ruiz is a tireless
campaigner representing a Palm Springs district that Clinton won and
Obama won twice. Solid D.
39th District (Ed Royce, R, re-elected with 57.2%). Clinton 52%.
DCCC Target. The congressman won re-election easily last year, but the
demographics of the district (which includes northern Orange County
and parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties) are shifting away
from the GOP. Democrats need a quality candidate. Lean R.
45th District (Mimi Walters, R, re-elected with 59%). Clinton 49.8%.
DCCC Target. Clinton was the first Democratic presidential nominee
to win Orange County since 1936, and Democrats are excited about
their prospects down the ballot. Walters, who represents central Orange
County, will be difficult to unseat considering there is a little evidence
voters connect her with Trump. But similar to other Republicans,
incumbents will have a record of supporting the President that
Democrats will highlight in television ads. Solid R.
48th District (Dana Rohrabacher, R, re-elected with 58%). Clinton
48%. DCCC Target. The congressman has been a retirement possibility
for a few cycles now, but not a Democratic target until Clinton carried his
coastal Orange County seat last year. The congressman made news when
someone floated his name to be Trump’s secretary of state, for being too
sympathetic toward Russia, and when two people were injured at his
district offices during a protest. There appears to be a lot happening here,
but not a lot of evidence that it’s within Democratic reach yet. Likely R.
49th District (Darrell Issa, R, re-elected with 50%). Clinton 51%.
DCCC Target. The congressman defeated Democrat Doug Applegate
in a late-breaking race in southern Orange County. Democrats used a
combination of old opposition research and Clinton support to nearly
topple the wealthiest Member of Congress. Applegate is running again,
giving Republicans two years to focus on him and drive up his negatives.
But his performance will inspire other Democrats to take a look. Tilts R.
52nd District (Scott Peters, D, re-elected with 57%). Clinton 58%.
NRCC Target. Republicans are always enticed by this seat, but Peters
InsideElections.com
is a tough incumbent. Unlike most of his Democratic colleagues, the
congressman often enjoys support from the Chamber of Commerce.
Republican Denise Gitsham, who lost last year by 13 points, is interested
in running again. Solid D.
Colorado.
3rd District (Scott Tipton, R, re-elected with 55%).Trump 52%.
DCCC Target. Democratic strategists believe this race can move back
onto the competitive map if the GOP base splinters. It’s possible but
currently a long shot. Solid R.
5th District (Doug Lamborn, R, re-elected with 62%). Trump 57%.
According to a GOP source, someone is making calls putting together
a team for state Sen. Owen Hill to challenge the congressman in the
GOP primary next year. Hill told Inside Elections that he is focused
on his current legislative work, but didn’t give a Sherman-esque
denial. Lamborn was nearly toppled at the GOP convention last year
by a political neophyte. The Colorado Springs-based seat won’t go
Democratic, but Lamborn could be vulnerable in a primary. Solid R.
6th District (Mike Coffman, R, re-elected with 51%). Clinton 50%.
DCCC Target. There are few certainties in life, but death, taxes, and
Democrats challenging Coffman are three of them. The congressman
defeated another top-tier Democratic recruit last year (this time by 8
points). But Clinton carried the Aurora-based seat and Democrats will
look for another candidate. In spite of his previous strength, Coffman
would likely be vulnerable in an anti-Republican wave. Lean R.
7th District (Ed Perlmutter, D, re-elected with 55%). Clinton 51%.
NRCC Target. What was once one of the country’s most competitive
districts has shifted toward Democrats. But Clinton narrowly crossed 50
percent, and there is a real possibility that Perlmutter leaves the seat open
to run for governor. Solid D, but the rating could change with an open seat.
Connecticut.
2nd District (Joe Courtney, D, re-elected with 63%). Clinton 49%.
NRCC Target. Trump held Clinton below 50 percent, but that’s still a
long way from winning the eastern Connecticut district. The open seat
race could be interesting if Courtney runs for governor, but that hasn’t
happened yet. Solid D.
5th District (Elizabeth Esty, D, re-elected with 58%). Clinton 49.9%.
NRCC Target. Clinton also failed to top 50 percent in this western
Connecticut seat, but this type of district shouldn’t be in play for
Republicans in a midterm election with a GOP president. Solid D.
Florida.
7th District (Stephanie Murphy, D, elected 52%). Clinton 51%.
NRCC Target. The congresswoman defeated GOP Rep. John Mica,
who failed to adapt to modern campaigning. Republicans will make a
strong effort into winning the seat back with a stronger candidate. Mica
outlasted some potential successors, but state Rep. Bob Cortes, state Sen.
David Simmons and others are considering runs. Tilts D.
13th District (Charlie Crist, D, elected 52%). Clinton 49.6%. NRCC
Target. Crist defeated GOP Rep. David Jolly (who was ostracized from
the national party) in underwhelming fashion in a redrawn district that
included all of Crist’s home territory. Republicans have an opportunity
February 27, 2017
3
House Overview: Georgia - Iowa
to take the seat back, but Jolly’s indecision on a rematch puts a freeze
on other potential candidates. Despite his trashed reputation in
Washington, Jolly has a following in the district. But his anti-Trump
rhetoric could be problematic in a potential primary. Lean D.
18th District (Brian Mast, R, elected 54%). Trump 53%. DCCC Target.
Mast won a competitive GOP primary and won the general election
against wealthy Democrat Randy Perkins to take over Democratic Rep.
Patrick Murphy’s seat. Mast, a veteran and double amputee, will not
be easy to defeat in a district that Trump carried against Clinton. But
Democrats aren’t going to give the congressman a pass in his first reelection. Solid R.
23rd District (Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D, re-elected 57%).
Clinton 62%. Last year, the then-DNC chairwoman found herself in
a tougher-than-expected primary against Tim Canova, who tried to
capitalize on Bernie Sanders popularity. Wasserman Schultz won 5743 percent, but Canova looks poised to run again. No risk of a GOP
takeover though. Solid. D.
25th District (Mario Diaz-Balart, R, re-elected 62%). Trump 49.6%.
DCCC Target. The Diaz-Balart name is popular in south Florida, but
Democrats can’t afford to rule out districts where Trump fell below 50
percent. They’re casting the net wide for a credible challenger. Solid R.
26th District (Carlos Curbelo, R, re-elected with 53%). Clinton 57%.
DCCC Target. Curbelo was a top target last cycle and won with some
room to spare. But Democrats largely blamed their nominee, former Rep.
Joe Garcia, who had plenty of baggage. The congressman will be tough
to beat, but a challenger with fewer issues could cause him problems,
and Curbelo could struggle if Trump incites Hispanic voters against the
GOP. Tilts R.
27th District (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R, re-elected with 55%). Clinton
59%. DCCC Target. The congresswoman represents one of the most
Democratic districts held by a Republican. As long as she runs for reelection, it’s a Democratic long-shot. But it’s worth watching as the cycle
progresses. Solid R.
Georgia.
6th District (VACANT, R). Trump 48.3%. DCCC Target. 2017 Special
Election. President Trump tapped GOP Rep. Tom Price to be his secretary
of Health & Human Services. The congressman won re-election easily,
but Trump defeated Clinton by just a point, sparking Democratic
interest in the race. All candidates run together and the top two finishers
move on to a runoff if no candidate reaches 50 percent, as expected.
Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel is one of the top GOP
contenders, but isn’t a shoo-in. As a frontrunner, she’ll get attacked from
all sides. Democrats have high hopes for former Hill aide Jon Ossoff,
who is proving to be a great fundraiser and is popular among liberal
activists. This is shaping up to be the first premier special election. It
has a high cost for entry for the party committees and outside groups
because of the expensive Atlanta media market. But thanks to the
competitive presidential numbers, even if Trump’s performance is a GOP
aberration and their frontrunner is probably to the left of the district,
Democrats can’t disappoint the party base by walking away from the
district. You can read the initial analysis of the race in the Dec. 20 issue
and more in an upcoming issue. Lean R.
4
February 27, 2017
Illinois.
6th District (Peter Roskam, R, re-elected with 59%). Clinton
50%. DCCC Target. This district hasn’t received much attention since
Roskam defeated DCCC darling Tammy Duckworth in 2006 and then
Democrats redrew it to elect a Republican during the last round of
redistricting. But Democrats believe demographics are pulling this
back into play and Roskam will have to answer for a dozen years in
Congress. We’ll see what kind of challenger Democrats come up with.
Solid R.
10th District (Brad Schneider, D, elected with 53%). Clinton 62%.
Schneider defeated GOP Rep. Bob Dold to take back the suburban
Chicago seat the two men have traded since 2010. Dold overperformed
Trump but not by enough to win re-election. Dold hasn’t decided on a
rematch, which would pit the two men against each other for the fifth
consecutive election. Dold generally wins in midterm elections but
President Trump in office likely makes it more difficult. Likely D.
13th District (Rodney Davis, R, re-elected with 60%). Trump 49.7%.
DCCC Target. Democrats drew this district to elect a Democrat but Davis
has foiled their plans. Downstate Illinois has been rough for Democrats,
but they aren’t giving the congressman a free pass after Trump’s narrow
victory in the district. State Rep. Carol Ammons appears to be interested,
but having a legislator from Springfield may not be the best contrast.
Democrats also need to do anything in their power to make sure David
Gill, a former Democratic nominee, doesn’t run again as a third-party
candidate. Solid R.
14th District (Randy Hultgren, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump
49%. DCCC Target. Six years ago, Democrats drew this district to elect a
Republican, but they believe it’s trending their way. This district is a good
test of whether Trump’s troubles trickle down to other Republicans. Even
in spite of his unpopularity, the GOP presidential nominee still carried
the district. Solid R.
17th District (Cheri Bustos, D, re-elected with 60%). Trump 47%.
NRCC Target. Republicans were hoping the congresswoman followed
through on the rumors and would run for governor next year. But
Bustos announced her re-election plans last weekend. Trump carried the
Quad-Cities district, but Republicans aren’t likely to put up much of a
fight here. Democrats, including Sen. Dick Durbin, have bigger plans for
Bustos and won’t let her stumble in a re-election bid. Solid D.
Indiana.
6th District (Luke Messer, R, re-elected with 69%). Trump 68%.
The congressman is likely to run for the Senate against Democratic
incumbent Joe Donnelly and leave behind a GOP-leaning open seat.
There will likely be a crowd of GOP contenders. Solid R.
Iowa.
1st District (Rod Blum, R, re-elected with 54%). Trump 49%. DCCC
Target. The congressman turned out to be more resilient than expected
and the terrain in the Hawkeye State more friendly for Republicans,
but Democrats aren’t giving up. State Sen. Liz Mathis is unlikely to run,
but others are mentioned including state Rep. Abby Finkenauer, Linn
County Supervisor Brent Oleson, state Sen. Jeff Danielson, and former
state Sen. Steve Sodders. Lean R.
Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
House Overview: Kansas - Michigan
2nd District (Dave Loebsack, D, re-elected with 54%). Trump 49%.
NRCC Target. Loebsack is the only Democrat left in the delegation and
Republicans have their eye on the district after Trump’s performance.
State Rep. Bobby Kaufmann (son of Jeff, the state party chairman) is
mentioned as a potential challenger. Likely D.
3rd District (David Young, R, re-elected with 53%). Trump 49%.
DCCC Target. The congressman isn’t flashy but he gets the job done.
Despite being a Democratic target last cycle, he won re-election by 13
points and outperformed Trump. Michael Sherzan, who lost in the 2016
Democratic primary, could take another shot. Likely R.
Kansas.
2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R). Trump 56%. DCCC Target.
The congresswoman announced she is not seeking re-election next year,
prompting a race for her open seat. A host of Republicans are mentioned
as potential candidates (some of whom could choose to run for governor)
including state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, former Trump
campaign adviser/4th District special election candidate Alan Cobb, and
state Sens. Jake LaTurner and Dennis Pyle. Democrats aren’t going to let
the open seat opportunity fly by. Former state House Minority Leader
Paul Davis (who lost the 2014 gubernatorial race to Sam Brownback, but
won this district 51-45 percent) could run and some Democrats believe
he’d be a strong contender. Solid R.
3rd District (Kevin Yoder, R, re-elected with 51%). Clinton 47.2%.
DCCC Target. Last cycle this seat was a prime example of new territory
where Democrats were challenging because of Trump’s problems in the
suburbs. But the race became even more about unpopular GOP Gov.
Brownback. Yoder prevailed against Jay Sidie, who said he was leaning
toward running again. But other Democrats are looking as well and
strategists hope Brownback will continue to be a problem, even though
he is term-limited and won’t be on the ballot. Likely R.
4th District (VACANT, R). Trump 60%. 2017 Special Election. GOP
Rep. Mike Pompeo was confirmed to be Trump’s CIA Director, leaving
an open Wichita-based seat. According to state law, the local parties
selected nominees in lieu of primaries. Republicans chose state Treasurer
Ron Estes over Cobb, a former Trump campaign adviser, and former
Rep. Todd Tiahrt. Local Democrats selected civil rights attorney Jim
Thompson over a candidate with a more moderate reputation. Estes is
the prohibitive favorite on April 11. Solid R.
Kentucky.
6th District (Andy Barr, R, re-elected with 61%). Trump 55%. DCCC
Target. Democrats are hoping a non-presidential year allows them to run
a local race and follow the model of Democrats Steve Beshear and Jack
Conway -- statewide candidates who did well in the Lexington-based
district. But they were initially elected during different times with more
split-ticket voting. Democrats need depressed Republicans to stay home
and take out their anger on incumbents like Barr. It’s still a long-shot
scenario. Solid R.
Maine.
2nd District (Bruce Poliquin, R, re-elected with 55%). Trump 51%.
DCCC Target. Poliquin has proven to be a tough incumbent, but it was
InsideElections.com
even more difficult for Democrats last cycle as it became clear that Trump
was doing well in the more rural district of Maine. The congressman
can’t take his race for granted but starts with an advantage. Democrats
are likely to look for a candidate who was born in Maine, unlike their
nominee from the last two cycles. Likely R.
Maryland.
1st District (Andy Harris, R, re-elected with 67%). Trump 62%. The
lone Republican in the delegation may end up with a job in the Trump
administration. If Harris leaves, the open seat is likely to stay in GOP
hands. Former top aide Kathy Szeliga, who ran unsuccessfully for the
Senate in 2016, would likely run. Solid R.
6th District (John Delaney, D, re-elected with 56%). Clinton 56%.
NRCC Target. The congressman had a close call in 2014, but won by a
wider margin last cycle. Republicans are hoping he runs for governor.
But even an open seat with a Republican in the White House would
likely be a challenge. Republicans’ 2016 nominee would likely run again.
Solid D.
Massachusetts.
9th District (Bill Keating, D, re-elected with 56%). Clinton 53%.
NRCC Target. Republicans are searching for takeover opportunities and
some strategists believe Clinton’s performance, the opposition research
book against the congressman, and slow-moving demographics are
working in their direction. Be skeptical for now. Solid D.
Michigan.
5th District (Dan Kildee, D, re-elected with 61%). Clinton 49.7%.
NRCC Target. GOP strategists believe this district is slowly moving in
their direction and hope Kildee accelerates their takeover chances by
running for governor. It would take a special GOP candidate to capture
anger over the Flint water crisis, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Solid D.
7th District (Tim Walberg, R, re-elected with 55%). Trump 56%.
DCCC Target. The congressman is a perennial Democratic target but
consistently wins. Democrats are hoping the GOP majorities in Congress
overreach on their agenda and cause a backlash, pulling this seat back
onto the map. Solid R.
8th District (Mike Bishop, R, re-elected with 56%). Trump 51%.
DCCC Target. Democrats had a rough time against the congressman
last cycle when their nominee, Little House on the Prairie actress
Melissa Gilbert, dropped out of the race late citing health problems.
Their replacement nominee got a little traction in the media but lost by
17 points. Democrats believe they still haven’t had the opportunity to
litigate their case against Bishop and believe they’ll get a top recruit here.
Solid R.
9th District (Sander Levin, D, re-elected with 58%). Clinton 52%.
NRCC Target. Some Republicans are excited after Trump won Macomb
County even though he lost the district to Clinton. Even if Levin retires,
it seems like a long-shot for Republicans as long as Trump is president.
Solid D.
11th District (Dave Trott, R, re-elected with 53%). Trump 49.7%.
DCCC Target. This is another district where Democrats don’t believe
February 27, 2017
5
House Overview: Minnesota - New Hampshire
Missouri.
they’ve fulling executed their case against the congressman. Trott
was in the foreclosure business before getting elected to Congress but
Democrats haven’t had the right candidate or opportunity to fully press
their case about his past. Solid R.
2nd District (Ann Wagner, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 53%. The
congresswoman is expected to run for the Senate against Democratic
incumbent Claire McCaskill, leaving an open seat. Most of the fight to
replace her will likely be in the GOP primary. Solid R.
Minnesota.
6
February 27, 2017
Montana.
At-Large District (Ryan Zinke, R, re-elected with 56%). Trump 57%.
Likely 2017 Special Election. Trump nominated GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke
to be Secretary of the Interior, but he’s still waiting to be confirmed.
Yet the jockeying to replace him has already started. Similar to Kansas,
local party officials will select the two nominees at a convention instead
of traditional primaries. On the Republican side, 2016 gubernatorial
nominee Greg Gianforte has the support of Sen. Steve Daines and is
regarded as the frontrunner. Democrats are selecting between a few
candidates who are likely to lose in the special election. Solid R.
Nebraska.
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
1st District (Tim Walz, DFL, re-elected with 50%). Trump 53%.
NRCC Target. The congressman had a closer-than-expected race in a
southern Minnesota district Trump carried over Clinton. Republican
Jim Hagedorn’s showing in 2016 likely gives him a leg up to run again
this cycle, particularly because he has navigated the party convention/
nominating process. Walz is also considering a run for governor. An open
seat would be problematic for Democrats, while the district with Walz
running is still a concern. Lean D.
2nd District (Jason Lewis, R, elected with 47%). Trump 47%. DCCC
Target. For much of the cycle, Democrats were convinced that Lewis
was unelectable because of his provocative statements from years as a
talk radio show host. But Trump’s performance as well as a third-party
candidate complicated their plans. 2016 nominee Angie Craig looks
poised to run again,
while it’s unclear
whether independent
Paula Overby will try
again as well. This
is a top Democratic
takeover opportunity.
Toss-up.
3rd District (Erik
Paulsen, R, re-elected
with 57%). Clinton
Angie Craig
51%. DCCC Target.
Paulsen was a key part of the Democrats’ narrative about surging in the
suburbs and Trump anchoring Republican incumbents. But it didn’t
work in this suburban Twin Cities district. Still, Democrats aren’t giving
up, believe the partisanship of Congress will be heavier for Paulsen, and
are searching for a new challenger. Their last nominee, Terri Bonoff, has
apparently moved to Atlanta. Likely R.
7th District (Collin Peterson, DFL, re-elected with 53%). Trump 62%.
NRCC Target. Peterson is no stranger to GOP target lists, but he probably
didn’t expect Trump to carry his district with over 60 percent of the vote.
Republicans love the presidential results and how the opportunity looks
on paper, but they still need a viable candidate. An open seat would be
devastating to Democrats. Lean D.
8th District (Rick Nolan, DFL, re-elected with 50%). Trump 54%.
NRCC Target. Nolan defeated wealthy Republican Stewart Mills last
year for the second consecutive cycle and in impressive fashion with
Clinton losing to Trump at the top of the ticket. Nolan is being courted to
run for governor, but Democratic strategists believe it’s less than likely
he’ll jump to a statewide bid. An open seat would be problematic for
Democrats. Mills gets his share of negative attention, particularly for
losing two races, but both contests have been very close. He hasn’t ruled
out a third run. Lean D.
2nd District (Don Bacon, R, elected with 49%). Trump 48%. DCCC
Target. The Republican defeated Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford in one of
the closest races in the country. Democrats were hoping Clinton would
peel off an electoral vote by winning the Omaha-based district, but
Trump carried it narrowly. Ashford hasn’t ruled out running again and
was a good fit for the seat. But his loss last year was the latest piece of
evidence that Ashford only got to office because of GOP Rep. Lee Terry’s
ineptness. Lean R.
Nevada.
3rd District (Jacky Rosen, D, elected with 47%). Trump 48%. NRCC
Target. Nevada was a rare bright spot for Democrats on Election Night,
including Rosen winning GOP Rep. Joe Heck’s open seat as he ran for
the Senate. But she defeated perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, who
underperformed Trump and may have been the only Republican who
could have lost the race. Heck, who lost the Senate race, has all but said
he’s not going to run for his old seat. Michael Roberson, who lost in the
2016 Republican primary, may take another shot. But other candidates
will look as well and another GOP primary is likely. Tilts D.
4th District (Ruben Kihuen, D, elected 49%). Clinton 49.5%. NRCC
target. The Democrat defeated GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy, who was a surprise
victor in 2016. This is supposed to be a Democratic district, but Clinton failed
to top 50 percent. Republicans are likely to focus their effort on winning back
the 3rd District, but Democrats can’t take this one for granted. Solid D.
New Hampshire.
1st District (Carol Shea-Porter, D, elected with 44%). Trump 48%.
NRCC Target. The former congresswoman avenged her 2014 loss by
defeating GOP Rep. Frank Guinta. But her election percentage should
set off alarm bells (particularly against Guinta, who had significant
baggage), as should Trump’s performance in the district. If Republicans
can nominate someone other than Guinta, they should have a shot
at taking back this seat. The challenge is that the primary is late and
Republicans need a candidate who isn’t broke heading into the general
election sprint. Toss-Up.
Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
House Overview: New Jersey - New York
2nd District (Ann McLane Kuster, D, re-elected with 49.7%). Clinton
49%. NRCC Target. Kuster struggled to reach 50 percent in a race that
was largely ignored by national GOP strategists in a crowded and
complicated cycle. But Clinton did better in New Hampshire compared
to the nationwide results and Kuster may have survived the worst of the
storm. Republicans are searching for a challenger. Solid D.
and probably won’t be next year, but it could come into play based on
the nominees. Albuquerque voters will select a mayor this year and
Democratic party strategists expect the second-place candidate in that
race to leverage the loss into becoming the frontrunner for Congress. The
race is still taking shape, but Democrats should hold it in a midterm with
a Republican president. Solid D.
2nd District (Steve Pearce, R, re-elected with 63%.) Trump 50%.
Democrats have been hot and cold on this seat for a few years now.
The long-term Hispanic growth of the area probably endangers Pearce,
but Democrats probably need him to run for governor to make it
immediately vulnerable. Solid R.
3rd District (Ben Ray Lujan, D, re-elected with 62%). Clinton 52%.
NRCC Target. Clinton fell below 53 percent against Trump, but I think
Republicans are just trying to play parlor games by adding the DCCC
Chairman to their target list. Solid D.
New Jersey.
New Mexico.
1st District (Open; Michelle Lujan Grisham, D). Clinton 52%. NRCC
Target. The congresswoman is running for governor, leaving an open
seat. The Albuquerque-based district hasn’t been competitive in years,
InsideElections.com
New York.
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
2nd District (Frank LoBiondo, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump
51%. DCCC Target. Democrats are attracted to the relatively low Trump
performance in the district, but sober strategists admit they probably
need the congressman to retire before seriously challenging for the seat.
Solid R.
3rd District (Tom MacArthur, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 51%.
DCCC Target. At this early stage in the cycle, Democrats can’t walk away
from a district that President Obama won twice. But this race won’t be
easy. MacArthur is a wealthy incumbent who can probably match any
spending thrown at him by Democrats in a district where advertising in
the Philadelphia media market is required. Solid R.
5th District (Josh Gottheimer, D, elected with 51%). Trump 49%.
NRCC Target. GOP Rep. Scott Garrett appeared to do everything in
his power to make
himself vulnerable,
and Gottheimer took
advantage of it. Now
the new Democratic
incumbent is adjusting
to life representing
a Trump district
and will likely face
a Republican with
less baggage. State
Josh Gottheimer
Assemblywoman
Holly Schepisi and Assemblymen Robert Auth and Parker Space are
potential candidates, as well as state party chairman Sam Raia and some
potential self-funders. Don’t bet much money that Lou Dobbs will run.
Toss-up.
7th District (Leonard Lance, R, re-elected with 54%). Clinton
49%. DCCC Target. Lance is a throwback in style to the old Northeast
Republicans, but Democrats are hoping he gets lumped in with a
national party that is more conservative. Clinton carried the district
against Trump, and Democrats are trying to land a top recruit. Lance
hosted a fiery town hall this week. This seat hasn’t been in play in a few
cycles but is worth watching. Likely R.
11th District (Rodney Frelinghuysen, R, re-elected with 58%).
Trump 49%. DCCC Target. The presidential performance is causing
Democrats to take a look and try to pull it in play. It’s possible but still a
long-shot scenario right now. Solid R.
1st District (Lee Zeldin, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 55%. DCCC
Target. Early last cycle, Democrats had high hopes for knocking off
Zeldin. But Trump turned into an asset rather than a liability for the
congressman, who trounced a once-touted candidate. Democrats are
targeting Zeldin again, but the President would have to collapse to pull
this back into play. Solid R.
3rd District (Tom Suozzi, D, elected with 53%). Clinton 52%.
NRCC Target. Republican Jack Martins fell short in his bid to take over
Democratic Rep. Steve Israel’s open seat. He had to deal with a mess
when his primary challenger was thrown off the ballot but challenged
the ruling in court. The legal action took time away from the campaign
and some focus off of Suozzi. Now Martins and Philip Pidot could run
again. This doesn’t look like a great GOP opportunity. Solid D.
11th District (Dan Donovan, R, re-elected with 62%). Trump 54%.
DCCC Target. Democrats have been addicted to this seat since it was
held by GOP Rep. Michael Grimm. It’s the kind of seat that Democrats
probably win in a wave, but there is little evidence they’d win a hand-tohand local battle. Solid R.
18th District (Sean Patrick Maloney, D, re-elected with 56%). Trump
49%. NRCC Target. Trump won the Hudson Valley district in a surprise,
but the congressman will be difficult to beat. He’s currently heading
up a team looking into how the DCCC performed last cycle. In spite of
Trump’s performance, it’s hard to see how Republicans beat Maloney
with an unpopular Republican in the White House. Solid D.
19th District (John Faso, R, elected with 54%). Trump 51%. DCCC
Target. Faso struggled for much of the cycle against Democrat Zephyr
Teachout for GOP Rep. Chris Gibson’s open seat. But Clinton’s late
collapse likely helped Faso in the end. This could develop into a top
Democratic opportunity. Tilt R.
22nd District (Claudia Tenney, R, elected with 47%). Trump 55%.
DCCC Target. Tenney has more than her share of Republican and
Democratic critics, but she navigated this competitive open seat race.
Democrats believe she starts the race with higher negatives than the
typical freshman, and she appeared to benefit from third-party candidate
Martin Babinec. But she could be somewhat insulated by Trump’s
strength. Former GOP Rep. Richard Hanna was a legitimate moderate,
February 27, 2017
7
House Overview: North Carolina - Ohio
surrogates on the Hill throughout the campaign, and it’s not surprising
now that we’ve seen the President’s performance in the Buffalo-based
district. But Democrats are going to try and develop an ethical case
against Collins. And even if they can’t defeat him, they’ll hope it ties into
a larger narrative of GOP corruption in Congress. Solid R.
but this district is more conservative than he was. Lean R.
24th District (John Katko, R, re-elected 61%). Clinton 49%. DCCC
Target. The district looks like a top takeover target on paper, except
Katko is one of Republicans’ strongest incumbents and Democrats don’t
have a natural challenger. Full analysis in the Feb. 10 issue. Likely R.
25th District (Louise Slaughter, D, re-elected with 56%). Clinton
56%. The congresswoman survived a close race in 2014 and won by a
wider margin last year. But Republicans aren’t going to let her off the
hook. Some GOP strategists wonder if they can push her into retirement,
but even though she is 87 years old, she may have less incentive than
ever to leave. Solid D.
27th District (Chris Collins, R, re-elected with 67%). Trump 60%.
DCCC Target. The congressman was one of Trump’s earliest and only
North Carolina.
8th District (Richard Hudson, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 56%.
DCCC Target. The congressman won re-election handily, but Democrats
believe the district is trending in their direction. House races will top the
ballot in the Tar Heel State. Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey, who finished
second in the 2016 Democratic primary for Senate, is considering a run.
Hudson is considered a strong incumbent and the congressman’s wife
Renee, formerly a long-time chief of staff on the Hill, just landed a job at
the White House as chief of staff to Kellyanne Conway. Solid R.
9th District (Robert Pittenger, R, re-elected with 58%). Trump 54%.
DCCC Target. Democratic optimism starts with the congressman’s ethics
troubles (he’s under investigation by the FBI) and problems within his
own party (he won his 2016 primary by 134 votes). They might also
have a top recruit: solar energy financier Dan McCready, who is a Duke
University and Harvard Business School graduate that served in Iraq
with the Marines. Democrats need Pittenger to be renominated, which
isn’t
a guarantee.
R but worth
watching.
Takeovers
in ItalicsSolid
# moved
benefiting
Democrats,
* moved
benefiting
Republicans
13th District
(Ted
Budd, R, elected 56%). Trump 53%. DCCC Target.
Democrats don’t want to give Budd a pass in his first re-election, but they
need to find a quality challenger. Solid R.
2018 Senate Ratings
Toss-Up
Donnelly (D-Ind.)
Manchin (D-W.Va.)
Heitkamp (D-N.D.)
McCaskill (D-Mo.)
Tilt Democratic
Tilt Republican
Baldwin (D-Wis.)
Nelson (D-Fla.
Tester (D-Mont.)
Lean Democratic
Lean Republican
Brown (D-Ohio)
Heller (R-Nev.)
North Dakota.
At-Large District (Kevin Cramer, R, re-elected with 69%). Trump
64%. The congressman is considered the top contender against
Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. If he runs, there will likely be a
crowded field of Republicans to replace him. Solid R.
Casey (D-Pa.)
Likely Republican
Kaine (D-Va.)
Flake (R-Ariz.)
Solid Democratic
Solid Republican
Cantwell (D-Wash.)
Barrasso (R-Wyo.)
Cardin (D-Md.)
Corker (R-Tenn.)
Carper (D-Del.)
Cruz (R-Texas)
Feinstein (D-Calif.)
Fischer (R-Neb.)
Gillibrand (D- N.Y.)
Hatch (R-Utah)
Heinrich (D-N.M.)
Strange (R-Ala.)
Hirono (D-Hawaii)
Wicker (R-Miss.)
Ohio.
Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
Likely Democratic
King (I- Maine)
Klobuchar (D-Minn.)
Menendez (D-N.J.)
GOP
DEM
115th Congress
52
48
Murphy (D-Conn.)
Sanders (I-Vt.)
Stabenow (D-Mich.)
Not up this cycle
43
23
Warren (D-Mass.)
Currently Safe
7
15
Whitehouse (D-R.I.)
Competitive
2
10
8
February 27, 2017
1st District (Steve Chabot, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 51%.
DCCC Target. This doesn’t look like a great opportunity on paper, but
it was Clinton’s
closest district in the
face of an 8-point
loss statewide
and Democrats
may have a strong
challenger against the
congressman. Stay
GOP
DEM
tuned. Solid R.
114th Congress
54
46
7th District (Bob
Gibbs,
R, re-elected
Not up this cycle
30
36
Steve Chabot
with
64%).
Trump
Currently Safe
8
63%. DCCC Target. Similar to the 1st District, Democratic optimism
Competitive
10
2
centers on the potential for a top recruit. Solid R.
13th District (Tim Ryan, D, re-elected with 68%). Clinton 51%.
NRCC Target. Ryan ran unsuccessfully against Nancy Pelosi for
Democratic leader but may have bolstered his anti-national Democratic
Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
image to run for governor. An open seat could be a problem for
Democrats in a region that looks to be shifting away from the party. But
if Ryan runs for re-election, it’s hard to see how Republicans have the
bandwidth and resources to seriously challenge here. Solid D.
16th District (Jim Renacci, R, re-elected with 65%). Trump 56%.
The congressman is considering a run for governor, and there would be
plenty of potential Republicans in an open seat including Lt. Gov. Mary
Taylor and new state party chairwoman Jane Timken. Solid R.
Oklahoma.
1st District (Open; Jim Bridenstine, R). Trump 61%. The
congressman told a local group back in 2015 that he would abide by
his three-term limit pledge. It’s not completely clear whether he will
stick with it but candidates are starting to make moves based on that
assumption. Solid R.
Oregon.
4th District (Peter DeFazio, D, re-elected with 55%). Clinton 46.1%.
NRCC Target. Clinton carried the Eugene-anchored seat in Southern
Oregon by the narrowest of margins, and the district will be competitive
once the congressman retires. But Republicans have struggled to get a
top-tier recruit and a midterm with a Republican president probably isn’t
the right time to win here. Solid D.
5th District (Kurt Schrader, D, re-elected with 53%). Clinton 48%.
NRCC Target. Similar to the 4th CD, this Willamette Valley district looks
like an attractive GOP target on paper, but Republicans haven’t been able
to find the right candidate to win in nearly 20 years. Solid D.
Pennsylvania.
3rd District (Mike Kelly, R, unopposed in 2016). Trump 61%. The
congressman is seriously considering a run against Democratic Gov. Tom
Wolf. His open seat in Northwest Pennsylvania would attract a slew of
potential GOP successors. Solid R.
6th District (Ryan Costello, R, re-elected with 57%). Clinton 48%.
DCCC Target. The congressman was on the outskirts of Republican
concern as the cycle appeared to be spiraling out of control. But Trump
didn’t crater and Costello outperformed the top of the ticket by 10 points.
Democrats believe they might get a top recruit here. This is the type of
suburban/exurban district Democrats need to win to get the majority.
Likely R.
7th District (Pat Meehan, R, re-elected with 60%). Clinton 49%.
DCCC Target. This is another must-win seat for Democrats with a tough
GOP incumbent. Meehan recently announced he is not running for the
Senate, dashing Democratic hopes of an open seat. The close partisanship
and demographics point to a competitive race, but Meehan will be hard
to beat without a wave. Likely R.
8th District (Brian Fitzpatrick, R, elected with 54%). Trump 48%.
DCCC Target. At one point in the fall, Democrats were convinced that
this suburban Philadelphia seat would go heavily for Clinton and help
the party down the ballot. But Trump ended up carrying the district and
GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick’s brother Brian won the open seat. Democrats
are determined to avoid voter confusion between the two Fitzpatricks
and compete once again. Lean R.
InsideElections.com
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
House Overview: Oklahoma - Texas
16th District (Lloyd Smucker, R, elected with 54%). Trump 51%.
DCCC Target. GOP Rep. Joe Pitt’s open seat was supposed to be the
bellwether for a
Democratic wave
last cycle. It was,
just not in the
direction Democrats
wanted. Trump
carried the southeast
Pennsylvania district
and Smucker won
the open seat. 2016
Democratic nominee
Christina Hartman
Christina Hartman
overperformed initial expectations and could run again. Lean R.
17th District (Matt Cartwright, D, re-elected with 54%). Trump
53%. NRCC Target. Even though Republicans redrew this seat to elect
a Democrat during the last round of redistricting, some GOP strategists
identified this as a potential takeover opportunity last year as Trump’s
populist message resonated in the region. Republicans won’t be able
to sneak up on the congressman this time, but it’s worth watching,
depending on the strength of the GOP candidate. Likely D.
South Carolina.
5th District (VACANT, R). Trump 57%. 2017 Special Election. GOP
Rep. Mick Mulvaney resigned his seat to become Trump’s director of
the Office of Management and Budget, and the fight to replace him will
take place on the Republican side. Recently former state Rep. Ralph
Norman and former state party chairman Chad Connelly look like the
initial frontrunners but attorney Tom Mullikin is a credible candidate
as well. You can read the initial analysis of the race in the Feb. 10 issue.
Solid R.
South Dakota.
At-Large District (Open; Kristi Noem, R). Trump 62%. The
congresswoman is running for governor, leaving her statewide seat open.
Former public utilities commissioner Dusty Johnson, also a former chief
of staff to Gov. Dennis Daugaard, is likely to run and Secretary of State
Chantel Krebs is considering a bid as well. Solid R.
Tennessee.
6th District (Diane Black, R, re-elected with 71%). Trump 73%. The
congresswoman is likely to run for governor, leaving behind an open
seat. A crowded GOP primary should be expected. Solid R.
Texas.
3rd District (Open; Sam Johnson, R). Trump 55%. The 86-year
old former Vietnam POW is finally calling it quits. Trump didn’t win
the district overwhelmingly but Democrats don’t have it on their
initial target list. GOP state Sen. Van Taylor (who lost a challenge to
Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards in 2006) will be a top contender because
of his personal money and because he represents 94 percent of the
congressional district in the Legislature. Solid R.
February 27, 2017
9
House Overview: Utah - Wisconsin
Utah.
2015
3rdCALENDAR
District (Jason Chaffetz, R, re-elected with 74%). Trump 47%.
Don’t be deceived by Trump falling below 50 percent in the district or
people
atLI,
town
hall meetings since Clinton
Feb. 5 yelling at the congressman
Super Bowl
Houston
came in at 23 percent. AnyTexas
Chaffetz vulnerability would be in the GOP
primary.
candidate
Evan McMullin is apparently
Feb. 9 Former presidential
Kansas’
4th party
interested in challenging Chaffetz
or
GOP
Sen. Orrin Hatch next year.
conventions
Solid R.
Feb. 12-15
Virginia.
April 2
Pitchers & catchers
report
Baseball Opening Day
2nd District (Scott Taylor, R, elected with 61%). Trump 49%. DCCC
April 4
California’s 24th special
Target. Democrats are hoping the new congressman moves too far to the
primary
right during his first term and Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine runs strong in
Aprilbattleground
11
4th special
this
region ofKansas’
the commonwealth.
Democrats need a strong
general
challenger and some help from the national climate. Solid R.
June
6 District (Barbara California’s
special
10th
Comstock,24th
R, re-elected
with 53%). Clinton
general
52%. DCCC Target. The competitive
suburban district received a lot of
June 6 last cycle because
New
Jersey
attention
of its
proximity to Washington, D.C. In spite
gubernatorial
primaries
of a heavy Democratic effort
and Clinton
carrying the district, Comstock
June 13
10
February 27, 2017
Nov. 7
Virginia gubernatorial
primaries
Virginia, New Jersey
gubernatorial elections
prevailed. The congresswoman has been mentioned as a potential Senate
candidate, but she is more likely to run for re-election, which is good
news for House Republicans because an open seat would be difficult
to defend. Comstock still has to be concerned if the national political
climate turns against Republicans. Lean R.
Washington.
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
7th District (John Culberson, R, re-elected with 56%). Clinton
49%. DCCC Target. Democrats can smell a targeted race -- in a district
Clinton carried -- against a long-time incumbent who won with an
underwhelming margin. Democrats need to find a quality challenger, but
this could develop into a serious opportunity. Likely R.
16th District (Beto O’Rourke, D, re-elected with 86%). Clinton
68%. The congressman looks poised to challenge GOP Sen. Ted Cruz.
O’Rourke, who was first elected in 2012, came into office on a self-term
limits pledge, so he wasn’t planning on sticking around the El Pasobased district in west Texas. It’s a heavily Hispanic seat that may finally
get a Hispanic Member again after O’Rourke topped Silvestre Reyes in
the Democratic primary. Solid D.
23rd District (Will Hurd, R, re-elected with 48%). Clinton 49.8%.
DCCC Target. Hurd
proved why many
Republicans consider
him to be one of their
toughest incumbents
by winning re-election
against former Rep.
Pete Gallego while
Trump lost the border
district to Clinton.
But that won’t stop
Will Hurd
Democrats from
taking another shot at the congressman. Toss-up.
32nd District (Pete Sessions, R, re-elected with 71%). Clinton 49%.
DCCC Target. Democrats didn’t even field a candidate against the
congressman last year, but Clinton carried the district and the party has
set their sights on the seat. Dallas School Board Member Miguel Solis
is considering a run and represents Love Field and parts of central and
northwest Dallas. But Democrats might need a candidate from Highland
Park. Solid R.
3rd District (Jaime Herrera Beutler, R, re-elected with 62%). Trump
49.9%. DCCC Target. Democrats have been reluctant to challenge the
congresswoman, considering the district’s Republican tinge and the
positive media she received about her special needs child. But Clinton
coming close in the presidential race and some potential recruits have
renewed Democratic interest. Solid R.
6th District (Derek Kilmer, D, re-elected with 62%). Clinton 52%.
NRCC Target. Clinton fell below 53 percent so Republicans put it on their
target list. It’s not happening. Solid D.
8th District (Dave Reichert, R, re-elected with 60%). Clinton 48%.
DCCC Target. Clinton won the district so Democrats have to put it
on their list. But it would take extraordinary circumstances for the
congressman to lose. Some locals still think of him first as the sheriff who
caught the Green River Killer. Solid R.
10th District (Denny Heck, D, re-elected with 59%). Clinton
51%. NRCC Target. Similar to the 6th District, the DCCC Recruitment
Chairman finds himself on the GOP target list because of Clinton’s
performance. He’s not going to lose. Solid D.
West Virginia.
2nd District (Alex Mooney, R, re-elected with 58%). Trump 66%.
DCCC Target. Democrats have a scenario where the non-presidential
year allows them to win a local election in the middle swath of West
Virginia. It’s probably not going to happen. Solid R.
Wisconsin.
3rd District (Ron Kind, D, ran unopposed). Trump 49%. NRCC
Target. Republicans probably wish they recruited a candidate against
Kind considering Trump defeated Clinton in the district. Now the
congressman is considering a run for governor and an open seat would
be a boon to GOP takeover prospects. Dan Kapanke, who lost to Kind by
about 4 points in 2010, may run again. Likely D. CALENDAR
2017
March 20 Gorsuch SCOTUS Confirmation Hearing Begins
April 2 Baseball Opening Day
April 4 California’s 24th Special Primary Election
April 11
Kansas’ 4th Special General Election
April 18 Georgia’s 6th Special Primary Election
May 2 South Carolina’s 5 Special Primary Elections
June 6 California’s 24th Special General Election
June 6 New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary Elections
June 13 Virginia Gubernatorial Primary Elections
Nonpartisan Analysis & Research
June 20 Georgia’s 6th Special Runoff Election