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¶TXDGULFHSV DQG KDPVWULQJV DIWHU ZHHNV RI &5 WUDLQLQJ GD\VZHHN PLQGD\ ZLWK VLJQLILFDQW LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH UDQJHRIDFWLYHDQGSDVVLYHPRWLRQLQNQHHIOH[LRQ±DQG H[WHQVLRQ 0RUH UHFHQWO\ .RNNRQHQ HW DO >@ UHFUXLWHG PDOH DQG IHPDOH DWKOHWHV WR SDUWLFLSDWH LQ ZHHNV RI 66 WUDLQLQJ GD\VZHHN PLQGD\ GHVLJQHG WR VWUHWFK DOO RI WKHLU PDMRU ORZHUH[WUHPLW\ PXVFOH JURXSV LH KDPVWULQJV TXDGULFHSVDGGXFWRUVDEGXFWRUVH[WHUQDODQGLQWHUQDOURWDWRUV SODQWDU IOH[RUV DQG GRUVLIOH[RUV 5HVXOWV VKRZHG WKDW 66 WUDLQLQJOHGWRVLJQLILFDQWLPSURYHPHQWVIRUNQHHIOH[LRQ DQG NQHH H[WHQVLRQ RQHUHSHWLWLRQ PD[LPDO 50 0RUHRYHU +RUWREi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¶ PHDQ 6' DJH KHLJKW DQG ERG\ ZHLJKW ZHUH \UV FP DQGNJUHVSHFWLYHO\6XEMHFWVZHUHSODFHGLQWRRQH RIWKUHHJURXSV±FRQWURO&2166DQG31)±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±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± GD\V DSDUW E\ DQ LQWUDFODVV FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW ,&& XVLQJ D VWDWLVWLFDO VRIWZDUH SDFNDJH 6366 7KH 5YDOXHV IRU IOH[LELOLW\ ,62 DQG 2$ ZHUH PRUH WKDQ ,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKH66DQG31)SURWRFROVZHUHWKH VDPH DV WKDW XVHG E\ /D5RFKH HW DO >@ DQG 5RZODQGV HW DO >@ UHVSHFWLYHO\ EXW WKH GXUDWLRQ RI WUDLQLQJ ZDV VHW WR )OH[LELOLW\7UDLQLQJRQ$QJOHWRUTXH&XUYH ZHHNV LQVWHDG RI ±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±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ÂVZKLOHLQDIXOO\SURQHSRVLWLRQ $OO WHVWLQJ WRRN SODFH RQ WKH QRQGRPLQDQW OHJ $OO VXEMHFWV ZHUH LQVWUXFWHG WR UHVLVW WKH OHYHU DUP IURP D NQHHH[WHQGHG SRVLWLRQ WR D NQHHIOH[HG SRVLWLRQ LQ VHFRQGV NHHSLQJWKHYHORFLW\ÂVFRQVWDQWIRUWKHPRYHPHQW$IWHU HDFK FRQFHQWULF DFWLRQ WKH OHYHU DUP RI WKH LVRNLQHWLF G\QDPRPHWHU Â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r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± 1R VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH ZDV VHHQ EHWZHHQ WKH 66 DQG 31) JURXSV IRU DQ\ RI WKH DERYHPHQWLRQHG WKUHH YDULDEOHV 7DEOHV ± 0RUHRYHU WKHUH ZDV D SRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH PDJQLWXGH RI ,62 LQFUHDVH IROORZLQJ 66 DQG 31) WUDLQLQJ DQG WKH H[WHQW RI WKH VKLIW RI 2$ WR D ORQJHU PXVFOH OHQJWK 7DEOHV ± 7KHUHIRUH WKHVH GDWD VXSSRUWHGRXUK\SRWKHVLVWKDW66DQG31)WUDLQLQJFDQLPSURYH IOH[LELOLW\ DQG VWUHQJWK DQG DOWHU WKH DQJOHWRUTXH UHODWLRQVKLS RIPXVFOHV 3DVVLYH KDPVWULQJ PXVFOH VWLIIQHVV KDG EHHQ UHSRUWHG WR FRUUHODWH ZLWK WKH PD[LPXP 6/5 3520 WHVW >@ $OWKRXJK WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI WKH 6/5 3520 LV LQKHUHQWO\ VXEMHFWLYH DQG PD\ EH DIIHFWHG E\ VXEMHFWV¶ DELOLW\ WR WROHUDWH WKH GLVFRPIRUW RI SDVVLYH VWUHWFKLQJ WKLV W\SH RI WHVW ZDV HDV\ WR DGPLQLVWHU ,W DOVR KDG D KLJK DSSOLFDWLRQ YDOXH DQG ZDV JHQHUDOO\ FRQVLGHUHG WR EH D YHU\ JRRG WHVW RI IOH[LELOLW\ 7KHUHIRUH WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ XVHG WKH 6/5 3520 WHVW WR HYDOXDWHWKHIOH[LELOLW\DQGH[WHQVLELOLW\RIVXEMHFWV¶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³IOH[LELOLW\ WUDLQLQJFDQHIIHFWLYHO\HQKDQFHPXVFOHVWUHQJWK´)RUH[DPSOH +DQGHOHWDO>@IRXQGWKDWDIWHUDWKOHWHVXQGHUZHQWZHHNVRI &5 WUDLQLQJ GD\VZHHN PLQVGD\ RI WKH TXDGULFHSV IHPRULV PXVFOHV DQG WKH KDPVWULQJV WKH LVRNLQHWLF HFFHQWULF VWUHQJWK RI ERWK WKH TXDGULFHSV IHPRULV PXVFOHV DQG KDPVWULQJV VDZ D VLJQLILFDQW LQFUHDVH DV GLG WKH LVRPHWULFVWUHQJWKRIKDPVWULQJVDQG,62RIKDPVWULQJV .RIRWROLVHWDO>@IRXQGWKDWIROORZLQJZHHNVRI31) WUDLQLQJGD\VZHHNRIWKHORZHUOLPEPXVFOHVVHWVî PD[LPDO UHVLVWDQFH WKH ,62 RI VXEMHFWV¶ TXDGULFHSV VDZ D PDUNHGLQFUHDVH±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± ZHHNV PXVFOH PDVV LQFUHDVHV E\ DQG ILEHU DUHD E\ ±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± &XUUHQWO\ QR RWKHU GDWD H[LVW FRPSDULQJ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ORQJWHUP IOH[LELOLW\ WUDLQLQJ LQ KXPDQV DQG FKDQJHV LQ2$DJDLQVWZKLFKZHFDQFRPSDUHRXUILQGLQJV+RZHYHU VWXGLHVRQDQLPDOV>@FDQSURYLGHVRPHLQLWLDOVXSSRUWIRUWKH SUHVHQWVWXG\¶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¶V ZHHNO\ DFWLYLWLHV 7KHUHIRUH LW LV FRQFOXGHG WKDW UHJXODUO\ SHUIRUPLQJ ORQJWHUP IOH[LELOLW\H[HUFLVHSURYLGHVPRUHSK\VLFDOEHQHILWVWKDQMXVWDQ LQFUHDVHGMRLQW520)XUWKHUVWXGLHVFDQH[SORUHWKHSURWHFWLRQ HIIHFWDIWHUDORQJWHUPIOH[LELOLW\WUDLQLQJSURJUDPDJDLQVWWKH VXEVHTXHQW PXVFOH GDPDJH FDXVHG E\ PD[LPDO HFFHQWULF H[HUFLVH 5HIHUHQFHV >@ 6 $ 6|OYHERUQ 7KH %RRN $ERXW 6WUHWFKLQJ 7RN\R -DSDQ 3XEOLFDWLRQV,QF >@ '&)XQN$06ZDQN%00LNOD7$)DJDQDQG%. )DUU ³,PSDFW RI SULRU H[HUFLVH RQ KDPVWULQJ IOH[LELOLW\ D FRPSDULVRQ RI SURSULRFHSWLYH QHXURPXVFXODU IDFLOLWDWLRQ DQG VWDWLFVWUHWFKLQJ´-6WUHQJWK&RQG5HV >@ 0 - $OWHU 6FLHQFH RI )OH[LELOLW\ &KDPSDLJQ ,/ +XPDQ .LQHWLFV >@ 0 +DQGHO 7 +RUVWPDQQ + + 'LFNKXWK DQG 5 : *OFK ³(IIHFWV RI FRQWUDFWUHOD[ VWUHWFKLQJ WUDLQLQJ RQ PXVFOH SHUIRUPDQFHLQDWKOHWHV´(XU-$SSO3K\VLRO2FFXS3K\VLRO >@ 030F+XJK'$-&RQQROO\5*(VWRQ,-.UHPHQLF6 - 1LFKRODV DQG * : *OHLP ³7KH UROH RI SDVVLYH PXVFOH VWLIIQHVVLQV\PSWRPVRIH[HUFLVHLQGXFHGPXVFOHGDPDJH´$P -6SRUWV0HG >@ - .RNNRQHQ $ * 1HOVRQ & (OGUHGJH DQG - % :LQFKHVWHU ³&KURQLFVWDWLFVWUHWFKLQJLPSURYHVH[HUFLVHSHUIRUPDQFH´0HG 6FL6SRUWV([HUF >@ 5'+HUEHUWDQG 0 *DEULHO ³(IIHFWV RI VWUHWFKLQJ EHIRUH DQG DIWHUH[HUFLVLQJRQPXVFOHVRUHQHVVDQGULVNRILQMXU\V\VWHPDWLF UHYLHZ´%U0HG- >@ ' 3 /D5RFKH DQG ' $ - &RQQROO\ ³(IIHFWV RI VWUHWFKLQJ RQ SDVVLYHPXVFOHWHQVLRQDQGUHVSRQVHWRHFFHQWULFH[HUFLVH´$P- 6SRUWV0HG >@ $*1HOVRQ10'ULVFROO'./DQGLQ0$<RXQJDQG, & 6FKH[QD\GHU ³$FXWH HIIHFWV RI SDVVLYH PXVFOH VWUHWFKLQJ RQ VSULQWSHUIRUPDQFH´-6SRUWV6FL >@ , 6KULHU ³'RHV VWUHWFKLQJ LPSURYH SHUIRUPDQFH" $ V\VWHPDWLF DQG FULWLFDO UHYLHZ RI WKH OLWHUDWXUH´ &OLQ - 6SRUW 0HG >@ - 5 )RZOHV ' * 6DOH DQG - ' 0DF'RXJDOO ³5HGXFHG VWUHQJWK DIWHU SDVVLYH VWUHWFK RI WKH KXPDQ SODQWDUIOH[RUV´ - $SSO3K\VLRO >@ 1*XLVVDUGDQG-'XFKDWHDX³(IIHFWRIVWDWLFVWUHWFKWUDLQLQJRQ QHXUDO DQG PHFKDQLFDO SURSHUWLHV RI WKH KXPDQ SODQWDUIOH[RU PXVFOHV´0XVFOH1HUYH >@ 6 0 0DUHN - 7 &UDPHU $ / )LQFKHU / / 0DVVH\ 6 0 'DQJHOPDLHU 6 3XUND\DVWKD . $ )LW] DQG - < &XOEHUWVRQ ³$FXWH HIIHFWV RI VWDWLF DQG SURSULRFHSWLYH QHXURPXVFXODU IDFLOLWDWLRQ VWUHWFKLQJ RQ PXVFOH VWUHQJWK DQG SRZHU RXWSXW´ - $WKO7UDLQ >@ ' ( :HLU - 7LQJOH\ DQG * & % (OGHU ³$FXWH SDVVLYH VWUHWFKLQJ DOWHUV WKH PHFKDQLFDO SURSHUWLHV RI KXPDQ SODQWDU IOH[RUV DQG WKH RSWLPDO DQJOH IRU PD[LPDO YROXQWDU\ FRQWUDFWLRQ´(XU-$SSO3K\VLRO >@ -7&UDPHU7:%HFN7-+RXVK//0DVVH\600DUHN 6'DQJOHPHLHU63XUND\DVWKD-<&XOEHUWVRQ.$)LW]DQG $'(JDQ³$FXWHHIIHFWVRIVWDWLFVWUHWFKLQJRQFKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH LVRNLQHWLF DQJOHWRUTXH UHODWLRQVKLS VXUIDFH HOHFWURP\RJUDSK\ DQG PHFKDQRP\RJUDSK\´ - 6SRUWV 6FL >@ 7 : :RUUHOO 7 / 6PLWK DQG - :LQHJDUGQHU ³(IIHFW RI KDPVWULQJ VWUHWFKLQJ RQ KDPVWULQJ PXVFOH SHUIRUPDQFH´ - 2UWKRS6SRUWV3K\V7KHU >@ --*RGJHV+0DF5DH&/RQJGRQ&7LQEHUJDQG30DF5DH ³7KHHIIHFWVRIWZRVWUHWFKLQJSURFHGXUHVRQKLSUDQJHRIPRWLRQ DQG JDLW HFRQRP\´ - 2UWKRS 6SRUWV 3K\V 7KHU >@ 7 +RUWREiJ\L - )DOXGL - 7LKDQ\L DQG % 0HUNHO\ ³(IIHFWV RI LQWHQVHVWUHWFKLQJIOH[LELOLW\WUDLQLQJRQWKHPHFKDQLFDOSURILOHRI WKHNQHHH[WHQVRUVDQGRQWKHUDQJHRIPRWLRQRIWKHKLSMRLQW´ ,QW-6SRUWV0HG >@ * - :LOVRQ $ - 0XUSK\ DQG - ) 3U\RU ³0XVFXORWHQGLQRXV VWLIIQHVV LWV UHODWLRQVKLS WR HFFHQWULF LVRPHWULF DQG FRQFHQWULF SHUIRUPDQFH´-$SSO3K\VLRO >@ *%'LQWLPDQ³(IIHFWVRIYDULRXVWUDLQLQJSURJUDPVRQUXQQLQJ VSHHG´5HV4 >@ -3+XQWHUDQG510DUVKDOO³(IIHFWVRISRZHUDQGIOH[LELOLW\ WUDLQLQJRQYHUWLFDOMXPSWHFKQLTXH´0HG6FL6SRUWV([HUF >@ '3/D5RFKH09/XVVLHUDQG6-5R\³&KURQLFVWUHWFKLQJ DQGYROXQWDU\PXVFOHIRUFH´-6WUHQJWK&RQG5HV >@ 8 3URVNH DQG ' / 0RUJDQ ³0XVFOH GDPDJH IURP HFFHQWULF H[HUFLVH PHFKDQLVP PHFKDQLFDO VLJQV DGDSWDWLRQ DQG FOLQLFDO DSSOLFDWLRQV´-3K\VLRO >@ &/%URFNHWW'/0RUJDQDQG83URVNH³+XPDQKDPVWULQJ PXVFOHV DGDSW WR HFFHQWULF H[HUFLVH E\ FKDQJLQJ RSWLPXP OHQJWK´0HG6FL6SRUWV([HUF >@ 030F+XJK'$-&RQQROO\5*(VWRQDQG*:*OHLP ³([HUFLVHLQGXFHGPXVFOHGDPDJHDQGSRWHQWLDOPHFKDQLVPVIRU WKHUHSHDWHGERXWHIIHFW´6SRUWV0HG >@ & / %URFNHWW ' / 0RUJDQ DQG 8 3URVNH ³3UHGLFWLQJ KDPVWULQJVWUDLQLQMXU\LQHOLWHDWKOHWHV´0HG6FL6SRUWV([HUF >@ 90&R[3(:LOOLDPV+:ULJKW56-DPHV./*LOORWW, 6<RXQJDQG')*ROGVSLQN³*URZWKLQGXFHGE\LQFUHPHQWDO VWDWLF VWUHWFK LQ DGXOW UDEELW ODWLVVLPXV GRUVL PXVFOH´ ([S 3K\VLRO >@ 630DJQXVVRQ(%6LPRQVHQ3$DJDDUG+6RUHQVRQ DQG 0.MDHU³$PHFKDQLVPIRUDOWHUHGIOH[LELOLW\LQKXPDQVNHOHWDO PXVFOH´-3K\VLRO >@ '$5HLGDQG3-0F1DLU³3DVVLYHIRUFHDQJOHDQGVWLIIQHVV FKDQJHVDIWHUVWUHWFKLQJRIKDPVWULQJPXVFOHV´0HG6FL6SRUWV ([HUF >@ $95RZODQGV9)0DUJLQVRQDQG-/HH³&KURQLFIOH[LELOLW\ JDLQV HIIHFW RI LVRPHWULF FRQWUDFWLRQ GXUDWLRQ GXULQJ SURSULRFHSWLYHQHXURPXVFXODUIDFLOLWDWLRQVWUHWFKLQJWHFKQLTXHV´ -0HG%LRO(QJ9RO1R 5HV4([HUF6SRUW >@ 3DSDGRSRXORV DQG , .DORJHURSRXORV ³3URSULRFHSWLYH QHXURPXVFXODUIDFLOLWDWLRQYHUVXVLVRNLQHWLFWUDLQLQJIRUVWUHQJWK HQGXUDQFH DQG MXPSLQJ SHUIRUPDQFH´ - +XP 0RY 6WXG >@ 030F+XJK,-.UHPHQLF0%)R[DQG*:*OHLP³7KH UROHRIPHFKDQLFDODQGQHXUDOUHVWUDLQWVWRMRLQWUDQJHRIPRWLRQ GXULQJ SDVVLYH VWUHWFK´ 0HG 6FL 6SRUWV ([HUF >@ : 7 6WDXEHU * 5 0LOOHU - * *ULPPHWW DQG . . .QDFN ³$GDSWDWLRQRIUDWVROHXVPXVFOHVWRZNRILQWHUPLWWHQWVWUDLQ´ -$SSO3K\VLRO >@ ( / &RXWLQKR $ 5 *RPHV & 1 )UDQFD - 2LVKL DQG 7 ) 6DOYLQL ³(IIHFW RI SDVVLYH VWUHWFKLQJ RQ WKH LPPRELOL]HG VROHXV PXVFOH ILEHU PRUSKRORJ\´ %UD]LOLDQ - 0HG %LRO 5HV
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz