BrianR.O’Connor,MAI,CRE
Principal,O’ConnorConsultingGroup,LLC
1
Housing Cycle: New Owner Demand vs. Renter Demand (Units)
2014 Renter Demand at
11,446 Units
(King and Snohomish Counties 1980-2015, Forecast 2016-2018)
15,000
New Owner Housing Demand
Peaked in 2004
at 9,300 Units Sold 2010 Renter Demand at
9,849 Units
Renter Demand
Peaked at 13,000 Units in 1989.
1980s Renter Housing
Boom
10,000
Dot-com Spike
Owner
Housing Boom/
Bubble
5,000
Forecast
0
-5,000
2008 Recession
9/11 Dip
-10,000
Source:NWMLS,OCG
Net Apartment Demand
New Construction SF & Condo Sales
Poly. (Net Apartment Demand)
2
}
Pineand2nd
◦
◦
◦
◦
DevelopedbyEquityResidential.
Locatedat204PineStintheDowntownmarketarea.
300,000SFtowercontaining40storiesthatwillhave398units.
Streetlevelretailandfourlevelsofabovegradeandfourlevelsof
belowgradeparking(250parkingstalls).
◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyJune2017.
}
KinectsTower
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
DevelopedbySecurityProperties.
Locatedat1823MinorAveintheBelltownmarketarea.
Itisa40storytowercontaining356units.
Streetlevelretailincludingarestaurantwithanoutsidediningarea.
Oneoftheprojectamenitiesisarooftopindoorpool.
CompletiondateofapproximatelyApril2017.
3
}
Tower12
◦
◦
◦
◦
DevelopedbyContinentalProperties.
Locatedat20012ndAveintheBelltownmarketarea.
Itisa34storytowercontaining314units.
Fullamenitypackageincludingrooftopdeck,theaterroom,fitness
center,saunaandhottub,andalibrary.
◦ 69%oftheunitshaveawaterview.
◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyMarch2017.Pre-leasinghas
begunasofFebruary2017.
}
StratusTower
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
DevelopedbyGIDDevelopmentGroup.
Locatedat901LenoraStintheBelltownmarketarea.
Itisa41storytowercontaining396units.
LocatedacrossthestreetfromAmazon’snewSouthCampus.
CompletiondateofapproximatelyJuly2017.
4
}
Tilt49
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
}
DevelopedbyTouchstone.
Locatedat1812BorenAveintheBelltownmarketarea.
Itisa37storytowercontaining393units.
Alsohas11storiesofofficespace.
CompletiondateofapproximatelyJune2017.
WestEdgeTower
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
DevelopedbyUrbanVisions(GregSmith).
Locatedat14302nd AveintheDowntownmarketarea.
Itisa39storytowercontaining340units.
Theprojectwillhavea“skybar”restaurantonthe8th floor.
CompletiondateofapproximatelyAugust2017.
5
}
Clise
◦
◦
◦
◦
DevelopedbyCliseProperties.
Locatedat22028th AveintheBelltownmarketarea.
Itisa40storytowercontaining447units.
Theprojectwillhaveundergroundparkingfor389parkingstallsand
231bicycles.
◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyAugust2017.
}
970Denny
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
DevelopedbyHollandPartnerGroup.
Locatedat970DennyWayintheLakeUnionmarketarea.
Itisa40storytowercontaining468units.
Theprojectwillhaveundergroundparkingfor374parkingstalls.
Therewillbe15,098SFofretail.
CompletiondateofapproximatelyNovember2018.
6
}
PotalaTower
}
UrbanGreenVilla
◦ DevelopedbyBinjiangTowerCorpandMolaskyGroup.
◦ Locatedat21164th AveintheBelltownmarketarea.
◦ Itisa40storytowercontaining339apartmentunitsand142hotel
rooms.
◦ Theprojectwillhaveundergroundparkingfor329parkingstalls.
◦ Theoriginalplansincludedarooftopdeckwithanoutdoormovie
theater.
◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyNovember2017.
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
DevelopedbyChainquiDevelopment.
Locatedat24013rd AveintheBelltownmarketarea.
Itisa12storybuildingcontaining132apartmentunits
Theprojectwillhaveundergroundparkingfor73parkingstalls.
Thebuildingwillhave4,824S.F.ofretailspace.
CompletiondateofapproximatelyMarch2019.
7
}
Cyrene
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
}
DevelopedbyMackUrban.
Locatedat1301WesternAveintheDowntownmarketarea.
Itisa16storybuildingcontaining169apartmentunits
Theprojectwillhaveparkingfor130vehicles.
Thebuildingwillhave3,600S.F.ofretailspace.
CompletiondateofapproximatelyMarch2017.
GreystarsiteII
◦ DevelopedbyGreystar.
◦ Locatedat413/425FairviewAveNintheLakeUnionmarketarea.
◦ Itisa24storybuildingcontaining239apartmentunits.Thereisalso
amidrisecomponenthousinganadditional181units.
◦ TheprojectisapproximatelyoneblockfromAmazon’smaincampus.
◦ Thebuildingwillhave10,000S.F.ofretailspace.
◦ CompletiondateofapproximatelyNovember2018.
8
}
ColumbiaPacificTower
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
DevelopedbyColumbiaPacificAdvisors.
Locatedat1001BroadwayintheFirstHillmarketarea.
Itisa16storybuildingcontaining265apartmentunits.
Theprojectwillhavea40,000S.F.WholeFoodsMarket.
Thebuildingwillhave355undergroundparkingspaces.
CompletiondateofapproximatelySeptember2017.
9
10
ProposedSeattleCoreHighRises
PropertyName
#ofUnits
Type
MartinSeligtower/Intracorp
45
C
McFarlaneHarrisonproject
292
A
ModernGreen/Daniels
244
A
CreateWorld/Woodpartners,2ndandStewart
266
A/C
DennyCenterSiteTower,BOSA
442
A
8thAveMixed-use
98
A/C/H
CambriaHotel&Suites
50
H/A
MackUrbanSLU
430
A
IconTower,Laconia
400
A
VulcanEighth
294
A
80SLU,Vulcan
80
A/O
Vulcan(Westlake)
258
A
Antiochsite,HBmanagement
1096
A
Vulcan(ValleySite)
218
A/O
CrescentHeightTowers
943
A
TarragonSLU
158
A
SeligTower2
330
O/A
CliseTowerII,III
638
A
RainierSquare
214
H/O/A
Jewel,5thandVirginia,Douglaston
431
H/A
Stories
Completion
11-story
2020
25-story
2020
26-story
2019
40-story
2020
41-story
2020
14-story
2019
15-story
2019
43-story
2021
43-story
2020
24-story
2020
14-story
2020
16-story
2020
two40-story
2021
16-story
2020
two39-story
2021
15-story
2020
36-story
2021
two40-story
2021
12&59-story
2020
47-story
2020
11
ProposedSeattleCoreHighRises
PropertyName
#ofUnits
Type
Stories
Completion
2ndandWall,oldMcGuiresite
283
A
24-story
2020
1800Terry,Seawest
425
A/C
38-story
2021
SeligTower3,OldFederalReserveBldg
192
O/A
48-story
2020
VulcanDiscoveryCentersite
470
A/C/O
41-story
2021
H5Capital,OldSeattleTimessite
421
A
41-story
2021
Altitude/5thandStewart,Stanford
236
H/C/A
49-story
2021
Nexus
382
Condo
40-story
2020
160SLU
160
A
24-story
2020
FormerWinterGardenTheatre
60
A
15-story
2020
129Belltown
126
A/H
17-story
2020
BentallKennedy/Westbank,3rdandVirginia
433
A
42-story
2021
DennySite,Westbank
1050
A
two38-story
2020
OnniBlock1
843
A/C
two24-story
2020
OnniBlock2
1179
A/C
two40-story
2020
4thandBell
354
A/C
24-story
2021
DaLiCondoTower
168
C
15-story
2021
Vulcan(TerrySite)
368
A
16-story
2021
4thandColumbia-Crescentheights
893
H/O/A/C 100+story
2022
N/SOverTrackDev,CivicSquare
138
O/A/C
42-story
2022
2ndandMarion(UrbanVisions)
160
O/A
60-story
2022
12
ProposedSeattleCoreHighRises
PropertyName
#ofUnits
Type
ConventionCenterExpansion
438
A/O
FormerShillaRestaurantSite
330
A
5th&Lenora,Vulcan
470
A
348SLU,Greystar
348
A
8thandPine,Fana
539
A/H
HollandFirstHillTower
207
A
TownHallsite,Lennar(North)
565
A
FryePkglot,Westbank
440
A
ColumbiaPacificSenior
237
SH
Alecta-Lowe/DanielsRE/Columbiasite
287
A/C
SFPCsite,Benthall-Kennedy/Lennar(South)
300
A
Thousand8Expansion,2towers
256
A
TotalsUnitsProposed
19,685
Stories
Completion
29-story
2023
36-story
2021
40-story
2021
28-story
2021
50-story
2021
17-story
2019
two32-story
2021
two33-story
2021
24story
2020
30-story
2021
four15-story
2022
17&15-story
2021
13
14
Apartment Market Balance History & Forecast - Seattle Core
5,000
10.00%
9.00%
4,500
7.3%
4,000
6.6%
6.8%
7.00%
5.8%
6.00%
3,500
5.8%
4.9%
3,000
3.0%
2.2%
2.1%
Title
2,500
2.8%
2.0%
3.5%
2.9%
2.1%
2.8%
3.6%
4.3%
2.7%
2.5%
2,000
4.00%
3.00%
3.3%
1.9%
6.0%
5.00%
3.9%
3.9%
8.00%
2.00%
1.00%
1,500
0.00%
-1.00%
1,000
-2.00%
500
-3.00%
0
-4.00%
Direct Demand
New Supply
Winter Vacancy Rates
Summer Vacancy Rate
15
MonthlyExpensesforaCondominiumBuyercomparedwiththatofanApartmentRenter
625SquareFootUnit
ApartmentRenter
[email protected]%Interest
MonthlyExpenses
Renter
MonthlyExpenses 20%Down
10%Down
5%Down
PurchasePrice $625,000
$625,000
$625,000
TotalDownPayment ($125,000)
($62,500)
($31,250)
LoanAmount $500,000
$562,500
$593,750
Rent/Month
$2,500
MortgagePayment
$2,460
$2,767
$2,921
UtilityCharges
$60
HOA($0.82/SF)
$779
$779
$779
Parking
$150
Taxes
$792
$792
$792
RentersInsurance
$20
Insurance*
$67
$536
$562
TaxSavings
($525)
($591)
($623)
TotalMonthlyExpense
$2,730
TotalMonthlyExpense
$3,572
$4,283
$4,430
TotalPerSF
$4.37
TotalPerSF
$5.72
$6.85
$7.09
DifferenceinCosttoBuy
$842
$1,553
$1,700
DifferenceinCosttoBuy(perSF)
$1.35
$2.48
$2.72
*InsurancefortheCondobuyerincludeshomeownersinsuranceandPMIwhenapplicable
16
MonthlyExpensesforaCondominiumBuyercomparedwiththatofanApartmentRenter
950SquareFootUnit
ApartmentRenter
[email protected]%Interest
MonthlyExpenses
Renter
MonthlyExpenses 20%Down
10%Down
5%Down
PurchasePrice $950,000
$950,000
$950,000
TotalDownPayment $190,000
$95,000
$47,500
LoanAmount $760,000
$855,000
$902,500
Rent/Month
$3,610.00
MortgagePayment
$3,739
$4,206
$4,440
UtilityCharges
$60.00
HOA($0.82/SF)
$779
$779
$779
Parking
$150.00
Taxes
$792
$792
$792
RentersInsurance
$20.00
Insurance*
$67
$780
$819
TaxSavings
($907)
($1,020)
($1,077)
TotalMonthlyExpense
$3,840.00
TotalMonthlyExpense
$4,470
$5,536
$5,753
TotalPerSF
$4.04
TotalPerSF
$4.71
$5.83
$6.06
DifferenceinCosttoBuy
$630
$1,696
$1,913
DifferenceinCosttoBuy(perSF)
$0.66
$1.79
$2.01
*InsurancefortheCondobuyerincludeshomeownersinsuranceandPMIwhenapplicable
17