Memo
To: Interested Parties
From: Corey Cantor
Date: Friday, January 9th, 2015
Re: Comparing the Economic Record of the Last Two Democratic and Republican Presidents
As the country gets ready to pick a new President in 2016, we felt it would be interesting to look at the recent
economic performance of the Democratic and Republican parties when they controlled the White House. While
there were many ways to cut this data, we choose the last two Presidents of each party and looked at five
categories: GDP growth, net job creation, unemployment rate, budget deficits and performance of the Dow Jones.
The contrast between the performance of the economy under recent Democratic and Republican Presidents is
stark. Democratic Presidents dramatically outperformed their GOP counterpart in all five categories. Some
examples:
Job Creation – Both President Obama and Clinton witnessed an average rate of job growth over 1 million each
year. Neither President Bush was able to come close to that number, coming in at 630,000 and 135,000 per year
respectively. The two Democratic Presidents oversaw an annual job growth 2.1 million per year. The two
Republicans had a combined annual rate of 300,000, or one seventh the total of the two Democrats. The latest
data released shows that the economy created 2.9 million jobs in 2014, which is at a comparable job growth rate
to an average year in 1990’s.
Unemployment Rate – The two Democratic Presidents saw on average more than a 3 percentage point drop in
the unemployment rate during their Presidencies. The two Republicans saw on average more than a 2 percentage
point increase. Each Republican President left office with the country in recession.
Deficits – Both Presidents Obama and Clinton witnessed significant declines in the annual budget deficit on their
watch. Both President H.W. and W. Bush saw increases of the annual budget deficit on their watch. The second
President Bush came to office with a $100 billion annual surplus. He left office with a $1.4 trillion annual deficit,
one of the most dramatic turnarounds of America’s finances in any period in US history.
Stock Market - Under the two Democratic presidents, the stock market soared. The Dow Jones has more than
doubled in the Obama era and now is at record highs. Under Bill Clinton it grew four fold. Under the first
President Bush the market had a small increase. The Dow was lower when the second President Bush left office
than when he arrived.
As we look to 2016 it is important to note that the last two Republican Presidents led the nation into recession and
larger annual budget deficits. Both Democratic Presidents had to lead the nation out of recession and saw strong
job growth, declining deficits and soaring stock markets on their watch. There is indeed a stark contrast between
the performances of the two parties on the economy over the past generation. This contrast will be particularly
significant in 2016 if the Presidential contest is between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush.
GDP Growth
Source: Princeton Study, July 2014.
Net Job Growth
Net Job Creation
25,000,000
22,744,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
Net Job Creation
10,000,000
6,371,000
5,000,000
2,592,000
Note: Obama has
2 years remaining,
H.W. served for 4
years
1,080,000
0
H.W. Bush
Clinton
Bush
Obama
Average Yearly Job Growth
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
H.W. Bush
Clinton
Bush
Obama
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate (Start & End of
Term)
9
7.8
8
7.4
7.3
7.3
7
6
5.6
5.4
End
5
3.9
4
4.2
3
H.W. Bush
Starting
Clinton
Bush
Obama
Budget Deficits
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual Budget Deficit/Surplus (1990 – 2014 in Billions $US)
300
100
All years in
this chart
refer to
Fiscal
Year(FY)
-100
-300
-500
-700
-900
-1100
-1300
-1500
Budget Deficits (Start and Finish)
B 400
i
200
l
0
l
i -200
o -400
n -600
-800
$ -1000
U
-1200
S
-1400
-1600
H.W. Bush
Clinton
Bush
Obama
Start
Finish
Performance of the Dow Jones
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Stock Market (Start & End of
Administrations)
20,000.00
18,000.00
16,000.00
14,000.00
12,000.00
10,000.00
8,000.00
6,000.00
4,000.00
2,000.00
0.00
Start
End
H.W. Bush
Clinton
Sources
1) Deficit Data – WhiteHouse.gov
2) Job Growth Data – Cleveland Plain Dealer/BLS
3) Unemployment Data – BLS
4) GDP Data – Princeton Study
5) Dow Jones Industrial Average Data – Dow Jones
W. Bush
Obama