Chapter Six:
Public Opinion and
Political
Socialization
Learning Outcomes
1. Define public opinion, consensus, and
divided opinion.
2. Discuss major sources of political
socialization, including the family,
schools, the media, and political events.
3. Identify the effects of various influences
on voting behavior, including party
identification, education, income, religion,
race, and geography.
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Learning Outcomes
4. Describe the characteristics of a scientific
opinion poll, and list some of the
problems pollsters face in obtaining
accurate results.
5. Evaluate the impact of new technologies
on opinion polling.
6. Consider the effect that public opinion
may have on the political process.
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Defining Public Opinion
 Aggregate of individual attitudes or
beliefs
 Private opinion becomes public opinion
when an individual takes action to
express an opinion publicly.
 Consensus
 Divided opinion
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Consensus vs. Divided Opinions
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How Public Opinion Is
Formed: Political Socialization
 Models of political socialization
 Family and the social environment
 Education system
 Peer group
 Opinion leaders
 Media
 Agenda setting
 Equals family influence
 Impact of new media
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How Public Opinion Is
Formed: Political Socialization
 The influence of political events
 Generational effect (cohort effect)
 Historical events
 Great Depression
 Watergate break-in
 September 11 terrorist attacks
 Reagan years and prosperity
 Political mood
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How Public Opinion Is
Formed: Political Socialization
 Party identification & demographic
influences
 Education
 Economic status
 Religious influence: denomination
 Religious influence: commitment
 Race and ethnicity
 Hispanic diversity
 Gender
 Geographic region
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How Public Opinion Is
Formed: Political Socialization
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How Public Opinion Is
Formed: Political Socialization
 Election-specific factors
 Perception of the candidates
 Often based on emotions rather than
experience or policy
 Issue preferences
 Perceptions of the 2012 presidential
candidates
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Measuring Public Opinion
 The history of opinion polls
 1800s: straw polls
 1930s: modern, relatively accurate
polling techniques
 George Gallup: Gallup poll
 Elmo Roper: Roper poll
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Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
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Measuring Public Opinion
 Sampling techniques
 The principle of randomness
 Statistical nature of polling
 Sampling error
 Difficulty of accuracy
 Weighting the sample
 House effects
 Most accurate at presidential level
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Measuring Public Opinion
 Additional problems
with polls
 Only snapshots of
public opinions
 Poll questions
 Unscientific and
fraudulent polls
 Push polls
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Technology and Opinion Polls
 Advent of telephone polling
 Easier, less expensive, and safer than
door-to-door polling
 Became new standard
 High nonresponse rate
 Cell phone proliferation has reduced poll
accuracy
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Technology and Opinion Polls
 Internet polling
 Many unscientific
“nonpolls” on the
Internet
 Not truly
representative
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Public Opinion and
the Political Process
 Political culture and public opinion
 Set of attitudes and ideas about the
nation and government
 Shared beliefs about important values:
 Liberty
 Equality
 Property
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Public Opinion and
the Political Process
 Political culture and support
 Americans generally trust political
system to resolve political issues
 Political trust
 Political opinion about government
 Public has highest confidence in military
 Want government to solve “most
important problem”
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Political Satisfaction Trend
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Confidence in Institutions Trend
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Public Opinion and
the Political Process
 Public opinion and policymaking
 Government somewhat responsive
 Setting limits on government action
 Limits of polling
 Framing
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 If states passed legislation legalizing
betting on elections, would individuals
pay more attention to elections, politics
and public opinion polls?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 How has the Tea Party Movement
gained momentum through public
opinion?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 What is the process of your own
political socialization? What factors
have been the most influential in your
socialization?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 Who should be responsible political
socialization, especially if family is not
active in socializing its youth? Is it the
role of the media? The role of the
educational system? Political leaders?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 What political events will determine the
generational effect of your time?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 Why are young voters less likely to
identify with a specific political party? Is
there any relationship between
cynicism experienced by baby
boomers and their offspring registering
as independents?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 Due to its potential flawed outcomes,
should the public truly trust public
opinion polls?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 What role did public opinion polls play
in the 2012 presidential elections?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 What role will technology likely play in
future polling?
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Questions for Critical Thinking
?
 Why do Americans lack confidence in
their government, and at the same time
expect government to remedy the
problems that plague society?
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