Luas Broombridge
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................... 7
1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 7
1.2 Background ................................................................................................... 7
1.3 Project Definition ........................................................................................... 8
1.4 Transport Planning ...................................................................................... 10
1.5 Capital Costing............................................................................................ 11
1.6 Risk ............................................................................................................. 11
1.7 Economic Appraisal .................................................................................... 11
1.8 Project Finance and Cashflows ................................................................... 12
1.9 Procurement Strategy ................................................................................. 13
1.10 Programme and Way Forward .................................................................... 13
2 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................... 14
2.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 14
2.2 Light Rail in Dublin ...................................................................................... 14
2.3 Land Use and Transport Policy ................................................................... 17
2.3.1 Medium Term Exchequer Framework ................................................ 17
2.3.2 Transport 21 ...................................................................................... 17
2.3.3 National Development Plan ................................................................ 18
2.3.4 Smarter Travel ................................................................................... 18
2.3.5 National Spatial Strategy.................................................................... 19
2.3.6 Regional Planning Guidelines ............................................................ 19
2.3.7 2030 vision......................................................................................... 19
2.3.8 Dublin City Development Plan 2011 – 2017 ....................................... 20
2.3.9 Dublin – A City of Possibilities ............................................................ 21
2.3.10 Grangegorman Development Agency Strategic Plan 2011 ................ 21
2.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................ 22
3 PROJECT DEFINITION ....................................................................................... 23
3.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 23
3.2 Project Needs and Objectives ..................................................................... 24
3.2.1 Promote Economic Growth ................................................................ 24
3.2.2 Reduce the Cost of Congestion ......................................................... 25
3.2.3 Integrate the Public Transport Network .............................................. 25
3.2.4 Increase the Commercial Success of Luas ........................................ 25
3.2.5 Facilitate Sustainable Development and Regeneration ...................... 26
3.2.6 Enhance the Public Realm ................................................................. 26
3.2.7 The outputs expected from the project ............................................... 26
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3.3 Consideration of Bus-based Alternative ....................................................... 27
3.4 Identification of Preferred Route .................................................................. 29
3.5 Description of the Chosen Alignment........................................................... 32
3.5.1 Area 1 ................................................................................................ 33
3.5.2 Area 2 ................................................................................................ 38
3.6 System Concept .......................................................................................... 40
3.7 Conclusions................................................................................................. 40
4 TRANSPORT PLANNING.................................................................................... 43
4.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 43
4.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 44
4.3 Overview ..................................................................................................... 45
4.4 Catchment Analysis of Luas Broombridge ................................................... 46
4.4.1 Introduction to Catchment Analysis .................................................... 46
4.4.2 Method and Results – Census Data ................................................... 46
4.4.3 Method and Results – Geodirectory ................................................... 48
4.5 Demand Analysis ........................................................................................ 50
4.5.1 Overview ............................................................................................ 50
4.5.2 Inputs and Assumptions ..................................................................... 50
4.5.3 Landuse Assumptions ........................................................................ 51
4.5.4 Moderate Growth Methodology .......................................................... 52
4.5.5 Infrastructure Assumptions ................................................................. 53
4.5.6 Base Case and Sensitivity Tests ........................................................ 53
4.5.7 Service Patterns ................................................................................. 54
4.6 Results ........................................................................................................ 58
4.6.1 Results Summary ............................................................................... 58
4.6.2 Base Case ......................................................................................... 59
4.6.3 Landuse Sensitivity Tests ................................................................... 62
4.6.4 Infrastructure Sensitivity Tests ........................................................... 66
4.7 Conclusions................................................................................................. 74
5 CAPITAL COSTING............................................................................................. 76
5.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 76
5.2 Methodology................................................................................................ 76
5.2.1 Overview ............................................................................................ 76
5.2.2 Quality control and peer review .......................................................... 76
5.2.3 Estimating Approach .......................................................................... 76
5.2.4 Basis of Capital Cost Estimate ........................................................... 77
5.3 Results ........................................................................................................ 78
5.3.1 Total Direct Capital Costs ................................................................... 78
5.3.2 Total Direct plus Indirect Capital Costs ............................................... 80
5.3.3 Annual Capital Cost to Government (€ millions nominal) .................... 81
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5.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................ 81
6 RISK .................................................................................................................... 82
6.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 82
6.2 Methodology ............................................................................................... 82
6.3 Risk Identification ........................................................................................ 82
6.3.1 Technical Risks .................................................................................. 83
6.3.2 Commercial Risks .............................................................................. 83
6.3.3 Risks relating to third parties .............................................................. 84
6.3.4 Project Management risks .................................................................. 84
6.3.5 Operational and maintenance risks .................................................... 84
6.3.6 Risk Appraisal .................................................................................... 85
6.4 Risk Management ....................................................................................... 85
6.4.1 Technical Risks .................................................................................. 85
6.4.2 Commercial Risks .............................................................................. 85
6.4.3 Risks relating to third parties .............................................................. 86
6.4.4 Project Management risks .................................................................. 86
6.4.5 Operational and maintenance risks .................................................... 86
6.5 Risk Reviews & Reporting ........................................................................... 86
6.6 Contract Risk Allocation .............................................................................. 87
6.7 Conclusions ................................................................................................ 87
7 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL .................................................................................... 88
7.1 Chapter Summary ....................................................................................... 88
7.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 88
7.3 Economic Appraisal .................................................................................... 90
7.4 Base Case .................................................................................................. 91
7.5 Scenario Testing ......................................................................................... 92
7.5.1 Overview ............................................................................................ 92
7.5.2 Economic Appraisal Parameters Sensitivity Tests.............................. 93
7.5.3 Shadow Price of Public Funds (SPPF) Sensitivity Test ...................... 93
7.5.4 Wider Impacts .................................................................................... 94
7.5.5 Discount Rate Sensitivity Tests .......................................................... 96
7.5.6 Landuse Sensitivity Tests .................................................................. 98
7.5.7 Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 ........................................................ 100
7.5.8 Economy and Jobs .......................................................................... 101
7.6 Project Appraisal Balance Sheet ............................................................... 102
Table 7-10 Luas Broombridge Project Appraisal Budget Sheet (PABS) ...... 103
7.7 Conclusions .............................................................................................. 106
8 PROJECT FINANCE AND CASH FLOWS ........................................................ 107
8.1 Chapter Summary ..................................................................................... 107
8.2 Background ............................................................................................... 107
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8.3 Financial Model Assumptions .................................................................... 108
8.3.1 Project Timing .................................................................................. 108
8.3.2 Inflation ............................................................................................ 108
8.3.3 Discount Rate................................................................................... 108
8.3.4 VAT .................................................................................................. 108
8.3.5 Capital Costs .................................................................................... 108
8.3.6 National Transport Authority (NTA) grants ....................................... 109
8.3.7 Section 49 Development Levies ....................................................... 109
8.3.8 Direct Contributions from Developers ............................................... 110
8.3.9 Transfer of land interests .................................................................. 110
8.4 Funding of Capital Expenditure ................................................................. 110
8.5 Operating Cash-flows ................................................................................ 111
8.5.1 Operating, maintenance and Life cycle asset renewal costs............. 111
8.5.2 Fare and advertising revenue ........................................................... 111
8.6 Risks and Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................... 112
8.7 Conclusions............................................................................................... 113
9 PROCUREMENT STRATEGY ........................................................................... 114
9.1 Chapter Summary ..................................................................................... 114
9.2 Introduction ............................................................................................... 114
9.3 PPP Assessment....................................................................................... 114
9.4 Project constraints, stakeholder requirements and lessons learned .......... 115
9.4.1 Project constraints and stakeholder requirements ............................ 115
9.4.2 Luas Lessons Learned ..................................................................... 116
9.5 Objectives ................................................................................................. 117
9.5.1 Quality .............................................................................................. 117
9.5.2 Value for Money ............................................................................... 118
9.5.3 Works Programme ........................................................................... 118
9.5.4 Flexibility to accommodate technical requirements, future connections
& regulatory change ................................................................................................ 119
9.5.5 Process risk minimisation ................................................................. 119
9.6 Procurement Options ................................................................................ 119
9.6.1 Assumptions..................................................................................... 119
9.6.2 Procurement Options ....................................................................... 121
9.7 Evaluation of procurement options ............................................................ 121
9.7.1 Option A .......................................................................................... 121
9.7.2 Option B .......................................................................................... 122
9.7.3 Option C .......................................................................................... 123
9.7.4 Option D .......................................................................................... 124
9.8 Conclusions............................................................................................... 125
10 PROGRAMME AND WAY FORWARD .............................................................. 127
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10.1 Chapter Summary ..................................................................................... 127
10.2 Activities.................................................................................................... 127
10.2.1 Procurement .................................................................................... 127
10.2.2 Design ............................................................................................. 127
10.2.3 Construction..................................................................................... 128
10.2.4 Funding ............................................................................................ 128
10.2.5 Communications .............................................................................. 128
10.3 Programme ............................................................................................... 128
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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1
Introduction
Development of an extensive Luas network for the Greater Dublin Area is a key
element of the strategy for tackling congestion in Dublin, enhancing economic
competitiveness and ensuring a sustainable, attractive city.
RPA has successfully delivered the first two lines of this system along with their
extensions to Docklands, to Citywest and to Cherrywood.
Although the Luas extensions recently built extend Luas to a wider catchment, light
rail in Dublin in the absence of Luas Broombridge will remain essentially as two
discrete lines and their extensions and spurs, rather than a network.
There is considerable demand for cross city trips on both the Red and Green Lines.
Luas Broombridge will fulfil this need and form the backbone of what will be a true
light rail network for the city. This demand is generated over the entire Luas Green
Line and thus Luas Broombridge helps maximise the benefits of the previous
investment in Luas.
This Updated Detailed Business Case (UDBC) for Luas Broombridge draws together
the many aspects of work undertaken to date on the project including its costs and
benefits, demand and capacity, risks and choice of procurement strategy. It also
reflects the outcome of the statutory process comprising the grant of Railway Order
by An Bord Pleanála on 2 August 2012.
The UDBC demonstrates that there is a strong economic case for the implementation
of Luas Broombridge under a range of different future population and employment
scenarios. A benefit to cost ratio (BCR) of 2.28:1 is achieved in the base case
comprising moderate growth over the appraisal period of 30 years.
When the shadow price of public funds (SPPF) of 150% is applied to the capital costs
and renewal costs, the BCR still shows an attractive 1.54:1. Including Wider Impacts
in this scenario increases the BCR to 1.83:1.
1.2
Background
In late 2004, and based on the early success of the Luas Red and Green lines which
had been brought into service that year, RPA prepared a transport case setting out
the merits of linking the two lines. This concluded that the proposal to link the Luas
Red and Green lines would be wholly in keeping with the transport and land use
policies of the Dublin Transportation Office (DTO), Dublin City Council and other
relevant agencies and bodies for the following reasons:
the creation of a Luas network;
the enhanced integration and interchange opportunities;
the wider trip penetration commensurate with the developing city centre; and
the changing city centre traffic environment.
In 2005 the Government’s 10-year investment strategy for transport to 2015,
Transport 21, was announced and this incorporated plans to implement seven new
Luas lines for Dublin along with two new Metro lines.
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The plan included a proposal to extend the Luas Green Line, initially further into the
city centre, and then to continue this line to Liffey Junction (Broombridge) where it
would interchange with Maynooth railway line services.
The importance of integrated public transport in facilitating more concentrated
patterns of development, in order to reduce reliance on the car and to achieve more
sustainable forms of development, is now firmly reflected in land use planning
policies. For example, the Regional Planning Guidelines and the National Spatial
Strategy seek to achieve sustainable development and recognise the benefit of
linking transport provision with land use development. In addition the plans of the
Grangegorman Development Agency to develop a unified DIT campus facility at
Grangegorman, which would be served directly by Luas Broombridge, represent a
best practice example of integrated transport and land use planning.
In November 2011 a Government wide review of Infrastructure and capital
investment policy was carried out within the context of tight fiscal constraints. The
review concluded that amongst its main priorities for economic infrastructure over the
medium term will be the development of the cross city Luas line, Luas Broombridge.
Luas Broombridge represents the ‘missing link’ in the creation of a Luas network for
Dublin with trips between the Luas Red and Green Lines (and their extensions) now
made possible through intersecting lines in the city centre.
If Luas Broombridge were postponed the result would be a disconnected terminus in
the city centre for the Green Line and, rather than a tram network, the city would be
left with a series of spurs and branches off the discrete Red and Green Lines. This
scenario would be fundamentally at variance with the objective of providing a truly
integrated public transport system and would have significant consequences for the
strategic vision for the city’s public transport.
Luas Broombridge is also an opportunity to radically enhance the urban realm of
Dublin city centre through attractive and sympathetic integration into the streetscape
and revised traffic management with greater emphasis on sustainable modes. Luas
is ideally suited to such a city centre environment and is very accessible to
customers.
1.3
Project Definition
A BRT alternative to Luas Broombridge was considered and the conclusion was that
Light Rail is superior to BRT on most evaluation criteria and that a bus-based
alternative should not be considered further as an alternative to Luas Broombridge.
The preferred route of Luas Broombridge was selected following detailed
assessment including multi-criteria analysis together with the consideration of the
views of the public and interested parties during the public consultation process.
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Figure 1-1 Luas Broombridge Preferred Route
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The proposed route crosses the city centre from the current terminus of the Luas
Green line at St. Stephen’s Green and provides an interchange link between the
Luas Red and Green lines before extending north via Broadstone and
Grangegorman to interchange with the suburban rail services at Broombridge station
on the Maynooth railway line.
The proposed route of 5.6 km will comprise the essential link that creates a Luas
network and will offer interchange opportunities with the other public transport modes
at a number of locations.
The proposed route reinstates a transport corridor in the northwest of the city centre
along the former Broadstone railway cutting and provides increased access to the
communities of Phibsborough and Cabra as well as the planned unified DIT campus
facility at Grangegorman. Figure 1-1 illustrates the preferred route.
The system concept will be similar to the existing Luas system with Luas
Broombridge designed to operate as a seamless continuation of the Luas Green Line
into the city centre and onwards to Broombridge. There are 13 stops proposed and
there will be two new substations along the line.
1.4
Transport Planning
Luas Broombridge is designed to achieve greater penetration of the city area than
exists with the present Luas system, with frequent stop spacing, platforms integrated
into the streetscape, and high permeability of the city centre. The provision of Luas
Broombridge is considered a critical element in reducing traffic congestion in Dublin
city centre.
The demand forecasts indicate that the introduction of Luas Broombridge will add
10.5 million passenger boardings to the Luas network.
Part of these new Luas passenger boardings come from other public transport
modes where existing public transport passengers transfer to Luas due to the
implementation of Luas Broombridge.
This generates significant benefits for passengers who are travelling further into the
city centre when Luas Broombridge is in place and results in more journeys being
made on public transport.
The results illustrate that during the morning peak period, there will be approximately
400,000 fewer trips by car per annum after the introduction of Luas Broombridge.
The results of the demand analysis demonstrate that there is a strong demand and
need for Luas Broombridge under all the different scenarios tested.
Improved penetration of the city centre impacts on public transport demand. In the
case of Luas Broombridge, it generates increased demand over the entire Luas
Green Line and thereby leverages additional benefit from previous investment.
After the introduction of Luas Broombridge, the maximum forecast line flow past any
point on the Green Line is approximately 5,270 passengers at Ranelagh stop. The
service pattern that would accommodate this demand requirement would comprise
20 trams per hour, with 10 of the trams terminating at Broombridge and the
remaining 10 utilising the city centre loop.
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1.5
Capital Costing
The direct capital cost of Luas Broombridge is estimated to be €218m excl.VAT in
2012 prices.
When direct and indirect costs together with escalation are included the total capital
costs amount to €368m excl.VAT.
A quantitative cost risk analysis (QCRA) has been carried out to identify and quantify
significant project risks and to support the estimate for risk provision in the capital
costings.
Reflecting the current economic climate, a realistic assessment of the rates of
inflation has been assumed and this includes 0% for the remainder of 2012, 3% for
2013 through to the end of 2016 and 5% for 2017 to 2018. Escalation accounts for
€32m of the total costs.
The cost of acquisition of CIE lands is not included within the total capital costs of the
project as it is assumed that these lands will be made available free of charge to the
project.
1.6
Risk
RPA is applying its standard Risk and Value Management Methodology to the Luas
Broombridge project.
The top project risks are identified under technical,
commercial, third party, project management and residual risk categories. They
include the complex issues associated with construction of utility diversions in a
dense city centre environment; the risks associated with the cellars; CIÉ interfaces;
and agreements with third parties.
As the project scope is further clarified through the ongoing design development
phase these risk estimates will continue to be updated and used in further QCRAs
thereby lending further accuracy to projections of out-turn costs and project duration.
1.7
Economic Appraisal
The Luas Broombridge project displays strong economic benefits substantially in
excess of the costs. The results of the cost benefit analysis (prepared in accordance
with Department of Transport guidelines), shown in Table 1-1 Luas Broombridge
Base Case Economic Appraisal Results – Discounted to 2002, demonstrate a strong
economic case for the project.
Table 1-1 Luas Broombridge Base Case Economic Appraisal Results – Discounted to 2002
Present Value (€m)
Total Benefits
528
Total Costs
231
Net Present Value
296
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR)
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The scheme displays an economic benefit to cost ratio of 2.28:1, and an economic
net present value of €296m in 2002 prices. The scheme therefore represents very
good value for money.
To test the robustness of the project, a number of sensitivity tests were carried out
using different scenarios. This testing indicates that the economic worth of the
scheme is not particularly sensitive to assumptions regarding related projects going
ahead or future employment growth.
When the shadow price of public funds of 150% is applied to the capital cost and
renewals costs, the scheme delivers a BCR of 1.54:1 in the base case and reduces
the net present value from €296m to €186m.
A conservative estimate of the magnitude of wider economic benefits has been
assessed as a sensitivity test applied to the SPFF sensitivity test, and this reveals
that the BCR increases from 1.54:1 to 1.83:1 with the net present value increasing
from €186m to €284m.
1.8
Project Finance and Cashflows
The projected level of Exchequer grant funding required in nominal terms is €368m
over the period 2006 to 2018, which amounts to 100% of the capital cost of the
project. It is expected that at 31 December 2012 €17.7m of this sum will have already
been expended.
It is not expected that contributions under a Section 49 Development Levy scheme
will be available for this project. There is a possibility that a Section 49 Development
Levy scheme, if introduced by Dublin City Council, could generate in the order of
€5m which would be used to assist the funding of the scheme.
Projections (Table 1-2) show that incremental patronage as a result of this project will
generate sufficient revenues to cover incremental operating costs from the first year
of operations. Thus it is unlikely that an operating subvention will be required.
Projections also show that operating surpluses should be sufficient to cover the
renewal costs of the infrastructure over a 30 year operating timescale. Demand
would be required to fall 46% below forecast to eliminate the operating surplus.
The results, also show that Luas Broombridge has an operating surplus in present
value terms of €93 million when measured over a 30 year time frame.
Table 1-2 Operating Cash-flows (Present Values)
Cash-flow
€ millions
Total operating revenue including advertising
205
Total operating costs
-95
Total operating surplus
110
Less; Life cycle asset renewals costs
-17
Operating surplus after funding life cycle asset renewal costs
93
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Procurement Strategy
RPA has reviewed a number of options for procuring the project including the
potential for adoption of a Public Private Partnership approach to implementation and
operation. A PPP form of procurement would not be suited, primarily due to the
operational interfaces with the existing system and also because of the necessity to
specify detailed requirements in respect of the city centre design interfaces.
The procurement model that best suits RPA’s requirements is based on the Luas
Line B1 (Cherrywood) model (Option B, Contractor Design – Build), viz. initial client
design for heritage, basement modifications and utility diversion works followed by a
design build package for the main infrastructure works.
This represents a change in procurement approach to that which was included In the
Outline Business case wherein it was concluded that the light rail infrastructure works
should be procured using a client design form of contract. This change came about
through a process of internal risk reviews, further project definition and consultation
with external stakeholders, DCC and CIE in particular. RPA will develop very detailed
reference designs which will be reviewed by DCC / CIE for approval in advance of
contract award. While it is acknowledged that there may be additional design costs
associated with this approach the benefits of transferring design risk to a contractor
for the construction stage are seen to out-weigh these costs. This is particularly
relevant in a dense city centre environment such as is represented by Luas
Broombridge, where the design interfaces are many and complex.
This model can incorporate the lessons learned from the implementation of Luas. It
also provides a flexible and balanced approach to risk.
This procurement option is compliant with all procurement rules, can maintain
competitive tension and is sufficiently flexible to accommodate legacy infrastructure
and systems.
1.10
Programme and Way Forward
Construction is expected to commence in 2013 and is dependent on the following:
Timely approval of this updated Detailed Business Case; and
Provision of necessary funding in line with the implementation programme.
Based on a 2013 construction start date for the project, the construction will be
completed in 2017 with operations commencing by end-2017.
The design and procurement process and the finalisation of the funding
arrangements are core activities to be progressed prior to construction
commencement in 2013.
Timely approval of the Updated Detailed Business Case and timely implementation
of the activities described are essential for the project to remain on target for
completion at the end of 2017.
The implementation of an effective and coherent communications strategy will play
an essential part in maintaining the support of key stakeholders during the
construction phase.
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2 BACKGROUND
2.1
Chapter Summary
The development of an extensive Luas network throughout Dublin has been
Government policy for over a decade.
The first phases of this Luas system have now been delivered and has proven to
be very successful with 29.1 million passengers using the system in 2011.
Extensions to the network that have opened are Luas Lines B1 to Cherrywood,
C1 to the Point and Line A1 extension of the Red Line from Belgard to Citywest
The attractiveness of Light Rail is now clearly demonstrated given the
established patronage levels experienced.
Transport 21 proposed extending the Luas Green Line through the city centre
and onwards to Broombridge (Liffey Junction) to interchange with suburban rail
line services. This new line will for the first time establish a Luas network in
Dublin with trips between the Luas Red and Green lines (and their extensions)
now made possible through intersecting lines in the city centre.
In November 2011 a Government wide review of Infrastructure and capital
investment policy was carried out within the context of tight fiscal constraints.
The review concluded that one of its main priorities for economic infrastructure
over the medium term would be the development of the cross city Luas line,
Luas Broombridge.
The NTA Draft Transport Strategy sets out the proposed long term strategy for
transport investment in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA). It recognises that Luas
Broombridge will strengthen the connectivity of the city centre, provide access to
the proposed Grangegorman campus and provide further integration with
existing Luas and Heavy Rail passenger services.
Dublin City Council fully supports the realisation of an extended Luas system for
Dublin. Other land use plans and policies endorse the implementation of a
sustainable rail based mode of transport in the city underpinning the city’s
economic vitality.
The Grangegorman Development Agency is a statutory agency tasked with
planning and implementing a new education campus for more than 22,000 DIT
students and associated staff at St, Brendan’s Hospital, Grangegorman, together
with community health facilities for the Health Services Executive. The
Grangegorman Development Agency fully supports the implementation of Luas
Broombridge which will provide much needed access to this consolidated
campus facility.
2.2
Light Rail in Dublin
In 2001, construction of phase 1 of the Luas network began and the Luas Green Line
between the City Centre and Sandyford opened to passengers in June 2004. The
Red Line, which runs from Connolly Station in the City Centre to Tallaght, began
carrying passengers in September 2004. Since its introduction Luas has proven itself
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as an attractive and popular means of transport for Dublin and has met and
surpassed its projected patronage since then. There were 29.1 million passenger
trips on Luas in 2011.
In November 2001 the Dublin Transportation Office (DTO) published A Platform for
Change – Outline of an Integrated Transportation Strategy for the Greater Dublin
Area – 2000 to 2016. This report was an update of the DTI report of 1994 and was
developed as a consequence of the unprecedented economic growth and associated
traffic congestion experienced in Dublin in the late 1990s. The DTO recognised that
the DTI strategy of 1994 had significantly underestimated the growth in population
and employment in the city and thus the transport and land use strategy of the DTI
would not now achieve its original objectives.
The DTO strategy recognised the large reliance on private car transport in Dublin and
developed a strategy to deliver a viable public transport alternative with the objective
of reducing car transport and associated congestion. The DTO strategy identified the
need for a rail and light rail network founded on the existing system and more
extensive than that proposed in the DTI report. Figure 2-1 illustrates the Rail
Proposals defined in A Platform for Change.
Figure 2-1 A Platform for Change - Rail Proposals
Source: A Platform for Change, November 2001
Luas Broombridge is compatible with the principles of A Platform for Change, in
particular by reducing the need for commuting by car; improving the accessibility to
the city centre; promoting sustainable land uses and travel; and optimising the use of
existing infrastructure.
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The 1997 application for a Railway Order by the Light Rail Project Office of CIÉ for a
continuous Luas line from Tallaght to Balally through the city centre was withdrawn
on the grounds of perceived congestion effects that Luas trams would have on other
road vehicles.
Since that time however environmental traffic cells have been piloted and
implemented; the banning of turns at certain junctions has been introduced to
discourage private car movements at George’s Street and at Dawson Street;
O’Connell Street has been reduced in width by 1 lane of traffic along its length
northbound and southbound; and a HGV ban has been introduced into the city.
Other enabling measures implemented by Dublin City Council include the Dublin Port
Tunnel from which private cars have largely been discouraged through a high user
charge for that class of vehicle; and the Macken Street Bridge.
Thus the background traffic context since 1998 has changed radically.
In late 2004, based on the early success of the Luas Red and Green lines which
were brought into service that year, RPA prepared a transport case setting out the
merits of linking the two lines. This concluded that the proposal to link the Luas Red
and Green lines would be wholly in keeping with the transport and land use policies
of the DTO, Dublin City Council and other relevant agencies and bodies for the
following reasons:
The creation of a Luas network;
The enhanced integration and interchange opportunities;
The wider trip penetration to the city centre; and
The changing city centre traffic environment.
In January 2005, RPA conducted a survey of Luas Red and Green line passengers
which revealed overwhelming support for the cross city extension of Luas with:
35% of respondents stating they would use both lines for their trip purpose;
30% stating they would use an extended line; and
31% would use the link to access Heuston and Connolly stations.
The attitudinal survey also demonstrated that:
There is a considerable number of cross city trips being made from the Red
Line to and from the South East Inner City (Trinity and St Stephens Green).
Recent analysis supports this outcome in revealing that the south-east
quadrant of the city centre remains the predominant destination for
employment;
There is a considerable number of cross city trips being made from the Green
Line to and from the Trinity, Grafton St. and Westmoreland St. areas; and
There is a considerable number of cross city trips being made from the Green
Line to and from the North Inner City (O’ Connell, Abbey, Jervis and IFSC).
The Government’s 10-year investment strategy for public transport announced in
November 2005, Transport 21, included proposals to extend the Luas Green Line
initially into the city centre, and then to Liffey Junction (Broombridge) where it would
interchange with Maynooth railway line services. Together, these two extensions
make up the Luas Broombridge project.
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In November 2011 a Government wide review of Infrastructure and capital
investment policy was carried out within the context of tight fiscal constraints. This
was led by the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform. This review aimed to
identify new priorities for investment given the reduced level of resources available.
Economic infrastructure has accounted for the major share of Exchequer and semiState capital investment in recent years and this is reflected in the enhanced quality
of the various networks now in place. The review concluded that one of its main
priorities for economic infrastructure over the medium term would be the
development of the cross city Luas line, Luas Broombridge.
2.3
Land Use and Transport Policy
Land use and transport policy at a national level is captured in the Infrastructure and
Capital Investment 2012 – 2016: Medium Term Exchequer Framework, Transport 21
(2005), the National Development Plan 2007 – 2013, Smarter Travel 2009 and the
National Spatial Strategy, 2002. The Regional Planning Guidelines Greater Dublin
Area 2010-2022 (RPGs), the Greater Dublin Area Draft Transport Strategy 2030
Vision and the Dublin City Development Plan 2005 – 2011 and other local policies
form the framework for development at a local level.
2.3.1
Medium Term Exchequer Framework
Infrastructure and Capital Investment 2012 – 2016: Medium Term Exchequer
Framework is the result of a review of infrastructure and capital investment policy
carried out in November 2011 within the context of tight fiscal constraints. Projects
which had been included in the previous development plan were postponed for
consideration in the next capital expenditure programme to be drawn up in 2015.
These projects included Metro North, DART Underground and also the extension of
heavy rail to Navan, Luas to Lucan and Bray and Metro West.
Public transport is afforded high priority in the Programme for Government. (Section
3 of the framework). Development of the Luas Broombridge cross city Luas line was
identified as one of the main priorities over the medium term for capital investment.
This framework recognises that Luas Broombridge will “strengthen the commercial
heart of the city” along with facilitating longer commuter trips across the city with only
one interchange.
2.3.2
Transport 21
Transport 21(2006 – 2016) set out the Government’s 10 year plan for transport
infrastructure across the nation amounting to €34 billion of capital investment in
roads, public transport and regional airports.
The strategy envisaged the provision of an efficient, reliable and sustainable national
transport network which would underpin Ireland’s economic growth and
competitiveness. Environmental and economic sustainability, increased accessibility,
increased use of public transport, increases in capacity, and enhanced quality
comprised the main aims of the strategy.
Several new Luas projects were included in Transport 21 along with two Metro
projects – Metro North and Metro West. The Luas projects were:
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Extension of the Luas Red line to Docklands;
A spur from the Luas Red line to Citywest;
Extension of the Luas Green line southwards, initially to Cherrywood and
thereafter to Bray;
Extension of the Luas Green line northwards, initially to the city centre to link
with the Luas Red line and thereafter to Liffey Junction (Broombridge) via
Broadstone / Grangegorman; and
A new Luas line from Lucan to the city centre.
Importantly the strategy aimed to deliver an integrated public transport plan, with a
bus network both fully coordinated with and complementing the rail network.
Luas Broombridge was an integral part of this strategy and together with the planned
implementation of other rail elements, offered the opportunity for a radical
reconfiguration of the bus network in the city centre.
2.3.3
National Development Plan
The National Development Plan 2007 – 2013 included amongst its key themes: the
elimination of major infrastructure deficits to improve the quality of life for all; the
protection, preservation and improvement of the natural environment with long term
sustainable development; commitments on social inclusion; reinforcement of the
Regional Planning Guidelines; and adherence to value for money in the
implementation of the plan.
Investment in transport infrastructure over the period of the Plan totalled nearly €33
billion nationwide, of which €12.9 billion was earmarked for public transport,
particularly in the Greater Dublin Area, where the delivery of a radically upgraded and
more integrated public transport system was identified.
Specifically with regard to the urban areas, the Plan noted that it is not sustainable to
promote road and car transport as the major long-term mode of passenger transport.
The growth in population and employment, together with the environmental
imperative to reduce carbon emissions, demands a major modal shift from car to
public transport. It is vital, the Plan stated, that the workforce has access to reliable
and efficient means of transport which is environmentally sustainable.
2.3.4
Smarter Travel
Smarter Travel – A new transport policy for Ireland 2009 – 2020 sets out a broad
vision for the future and establishes objectives and targets for transportation. The
main objectives are to reduce dependency on car travel and long distance
commuting by increasing public transport modal share and encouraging walking and
cycling, improving quality of life and accessibility for all, improving economic
competitiveness through maximising the efficiency of the transport system, and
alleviating congestion and infrastructural bottlenecks. The aim is that by 2020 future
population and economic growth will have to take place predominantly in sustainable
compact urban and rural areas.
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National Spatial Strategy
The National Spatial Strategy (NSS) for Ireland 2002 – 2020 is a 20 year planning
framework for all parts of Ireland. While not an infrastructural investment plan, the
future development of a spatial strategy will be underpinned by a national transport
framework to facilitate planning for an improved network of roads and public transport
services.
The NSS endorses the principle of increased use of public transport in major urban
areas and notes that for balanced development the performance of the Greater
Dublin Area should be built upon and physically consolidated and that the Greater
Dublin Area’s vital national role is secured in terms of improved mobility, urban
design quality, social mix, international and regional connections.
In particular, the Strategy promotes:
the continued development of infrastructure connecting Dublin to the regions
through an improved network of roads and rail;
the expansion of the transport network to enable interchange facilities
between the national transport network and the international airports and sea
ports; and
an increase in public transport and so-called slow (cycling and walking) mode
share.
2.3.6
Regional Planning Guidelines
The Regional Planning Guidelines (RPGs) for the Greater Dublin Area 2010 – 2022
aim to direct the future growth of the GDA, and work to implement the strategic
planning framework outlined in the NSS at a regional and area-specific level.
The RPGs identify the critical relationship between land use development and
infrastructure provision. Key documents playing a central role in the transport
element of the RPGs include the DTO Platform for Change, Transport 21 and the
National Development Plan 2007-2013, Smarter Travel (2009), the National Cycle
Policy Framework and the NTA 2030 Vision. The RPGs recognise the importance of
building critical mass along transport corridors ‘in order to support the capacity
requirements that make particular public transport investments feasible, sustainable
and cost effective.’
2.3.7
2030 vision
The Greater Dublin Area Draft Transport Strategy 2011-2030: 2030 vision sets out
the National Transport Authority’s proposed long term strategy for transport
investment in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA). The main focus of the strategy is to
promote integrated land use and transport planning, improve the walking and cycling
environment, provide better public transport and to improve traffic management of
the road network.
Five overarching objectives were agreed for the strategy. These are to:
Build and strengthen communities;
Improve economic competitiveness;
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Improve the built environment;
Respect and sustain the natural environment; and
Reduce personal stress.
Regarding public transport the strategy sets out measures to improve the integration
of services, simplify fare and ticketing arrangements and improve access to the
network by walking and cycling from surrounding areas.
The draft strategy recognises that Luas Broombridge will strengthen the connectivity
of the city centre, provide access to the proposed Grangegorman campus and
provide further integration with existing Luas and heavy rail passenger services.
2.3.8
Dublin City Development Plan 2011 – 2017
The Dublin City Development Plan 2011 – 2017 was adopted by Dublin City Council
and came into effect in December 2010. The overall vision for the city as outlined in
the core strategy is that:
“Within the next 25 to 30 years, Dublin will have an established international
reputation as one of the most sustainable, dynamic and resourceful city regions in
Europe. Dublin, through the shared vision of its citizens and civic leaders, will be a
beautiful, compact city, with a distinct character, a vibrant culture and a diverse,
smart, green, innovation-based economy. It will be a socially inclusive city of urban
neighbourhoods, all connected by an exemplary public transport, cycling and walking
system and interwoven with a quality bio-diverse greenspace network. In short, the
vision is for a capital city where people will seek to live, work and experience as a
matter of choice.”
Chapter 5 of the Development Plan addresses transportation issues within the
context of infrastructure provision. The development plan proposes to increase
capacity on public transport in order to promote modal change to more sustainable
modes.
Policy SI2 is ‘to continue to promote the modal shift from private car use towards
increased use of more sustainable forms of transport such as cycling, walking, and
public transport and to implement the initiatives contained in the government’s
‘Smarter Travel, A Sustainable Transport Future 2009 – 2020’
In relation to public transport the Development Plan fully supports the further
enhancement of Luas, Quality Bus Corridor and other projects, with the overall aim of
a fully integrated transport network for Dublin. A number of policies are in place to
promote and support the development of this infrastructure. These include:
Policy SI3 – To support and facilitate the development of an integrated public
transport network with efficient interchange between transport modes, to serve the
existing and future needs of the city in association with relevant transport providers,
agencies and stakeholders.
Policy SI4 – To promote and facilitate the provision of Metro North, DART
Underground, the electrification of the Maynooth Line, the expansion of Luas and the
Quality Bus Network in order to achieve the strategic transport objectives of the
National Transportation Authority’s ‘A Platform for Change’ and support the
implementation of the Transport 21 Programme for Dublin.
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In addition to the policies that are directly related to Luas Broombridge, a number of
general traffic and transport policies are important and have been taken into
consideration:
The traffic management policy recognises the varying needs of the city
through the day such as commuter peaks, shopping and business, service
and delivery, etc.;
In assessing priority, account will be taken of the number of people who travel
and not exclusively the number of vehicle movements;
It is an objective of Dublin City Council to tackle the adverse environmental
and road safety impacts of traffic in the city;
It is the policy of Dublin City Council to improve facilities and encourage
relevant transport agencies/transport providers to provide for the needs of
people with mobility impairment and/or disabilities including the elderly and
parents with children; and
The imposition of increased restrictions on the use of road space, for road
works or general construction, should be undertaken in accordance with the
”Directions for the control and management of road works”.
Dominick Street has been identified as a key strategic development and regeneration
area in the Development Plan. Luas Broombridge on Lower Dominick Street will
facilitate and encourage this development.
Luas Broombridge therefore complies with and supports the policies detailed in
Dublin City Council’s Development Plan 2011 – 2017 and is itself endorsed within the
plan.
2.3.9
Dublin – A City of Possibilities
Dublin – A City of Possibilities; Economic, Social and Cultural Strategy 2002 – 2012
is a strategy for economic, social and cultural development prepared by Dublin City
Development Board. It is a ten year strategy and provides a framework for guiding all
public services and development activities within the administrative area of Dublin
City Council. Its vision is that Dublin city is accessible to all by transport systems that
are efficient, safe, affordable, accessible, and integrated and that maximise
sustainable social and economic development and minimise negative environmental
impacts. The Strategy fully supports the implementation of the DTO Platform for
Change Strategy.
2.3.10 Grangegorman Development Agency Strategic Plan 2011
The Grangegorman Development Agency is the statutory body established in 2005 to
develop the Grangegorman site for education and health facilities. Over time it will
oversee the development of a single DIT (Dublin Institute of Technology) campus
facility catering for 22,000 staff and students who are currently dispersed in a number
of facilities throughout the city.
The Strategic Plan, which includes a Masterplan, has been prepared to guide the
development of the site. Provision for Luas Broombridge including pedestrian
linkages to the campus have been incorporated into this Masterplan. It is an objective
of the Strategic Plan to ‘work with ...RPA... and other key transportation bodies to
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secure the optimum provision of public transportation connectivity and service for the
Quarter.....and in particular to achieve an inter-modal transport hub at Broadstone
Gate.’
In May, 2012 the Strategic Development Zone (SDZ) application was approved by An
Bord Pleanála and work has now commenced on the planning applications for the
development.
Luas Broombridge will provide an essential transportation element to the successful
realisation of the Agency’s Strategic Plan with plans for two stops located in close
proximity to the campus development.
DIT Grangegorman is also identified as one of the Key Developing Areas in the core
strategy of the Dublin City Development Plan 2011 – 2017.
2.4
Conclusions
The implementation of the Luas Red and Green lines has proven to be a commercial
success with passenger demand exceeding forecasts and with the service operating
successfully for over 8 years without the need for an operating subvention. Further
extensions and spurs to Cherrywood, the Point and Citywest have extended Luas
services to a wider catchment area.
The Regional Planning Guidelines (RPGs) and the National Spatial Strategy (NSS)
seek to deliver sustainable development and recognise the benefit of linking transport
provision with land use development. Transport 21 sought to build on the delivery of
the Luas Phase 1 system and sought to develop a transportation network over the
next ten years comprising of Luas, Metro, heavy rail and bus. Luas Broombridge
was a key part of this network.
A review of infrastructure and capital investment policy was carried out in November
2011 within the context of tight fiscal constraints. Development of the Luas
Broombridge cross city Luas line was identified as one of the main priorities over the
medium term for capital investment. This framework recognises that Luas
Broombridge will “strengthen the commercial heart of the city” along with facilitating
longer commuter trips across the city with only one interchange.
The NTA’s Greater Dublin Area Draft Transport Strategy recognises that Luas
Broombridge will strengthen the connectivity of the city centre, provide access to the
proposed Grangegorman campus and provide further integration with existing Luas
and Heavy Rail passenger services. Dublin City Council supports Luas Broombridge
and is currently co-operating with RPA to deliver this scheme.
The plans of the Grangegorman Development Agency to deliver a single unified DIT
campus facility will alter in a dramatic manner the northwest inner city area. Dublin
City Council plans for the regeneration of Dominick Street will be supported by the
implementation of Luas Broombridge on Dominick Street Lower. Strong transport
links to these key locations and the rest of the transport system will be important in
ensuring their viability. Luas Broombridge will provide this link.
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3 PROJECT DEFINITION
3.1
Chapter Summary
Luas Broombridge will create the missing link in the Luas network and extend
the Luas system to the north of Dublin city centre. There will be an increase in
the number of trips on public transport and a greater integration of Luas, rail and
bus systems in Dublin.
The provision of the scheme will realise a reduction in city centre congestion with
the economic benefits of enhanced mobility.
The implementation of Luas Broombridge will present an enhanced image of
Dublin as a shopping, tourist and business destination leading to increases in
investment and economic activity. The associated upgrading of the city centre
realm will represent an improved quality of life for Dubliners and visitors to the
city.
A BRT alternative to Luas Broombridge was considered and the conclusion was
that Light Rail is superior to BRT on most evaluation criteria and that a busbased alternative should not be considered further as an alternative to Luas
Broombridge.
The preferred route of Luas Broombridge was selected following detailed
assessment including multi-criteria analysis and the consideration of views
expressed by members of the public and interested parties during the public
consultation process.
The proposed route crosses the city centre from the current terminus of the
Green line at St. Stephen’s Green and provides an interchange link between the
Luas Red and Green lines before extending north via Broadstone and
Grangegorman to interchange with the suburban rail services at Broombridge
station on the Maynooth railway line.
The proposed route of 5.6km will comprise the essential link that creates a Luas
network and will offer enhanced interchange opportunities with heavy rail and,
bus and the future Metro North and DART Underground.
The proposed route reinstates a transport corridor at the northwest of the city
centre along the former Broadstone railway cutting and provides increased
access to the communities of Phibsborough and Cabra as well as the planned
unified DIT campus facility at Grangegorman which will accommodate over
20,000 students and staff and which has recently been given Government
approval to proceed to construction on a phased basis.
The system concept will be similar to the existing Luas system with Luas
Broombridge designed to operate as a seamless continuation of the Green Line
into the city centre and onwards to Broombridge.
There are 13 stops proposed. One of these stops on a section of double track
line on Dawson Street will have just a single platform face serving southbound
passengers, arising out of a condition imposed by An Bord Pleanála on the grant
of Railway Order.
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Project Needs and Objectives
Luas Broombridge will extend the existing Luas Green Line into the city centre
providing a convenient, high quality public transport service and offering increased
accessibility to the city centre and beyond.
Luas Broombridge is the long-needed missing link that will create a genuine Luas
network, allowing passengers to readily interchange between Luas lines, and
significantly enhancing the benefits of the investment in the original Luas lines.
It will provide essential access for the approved development of a single campus
facility at Grangegorman for the Dublin Institute of Technology. It will re-use the
former railway cutting at Broadstone and will provide excellent interchange with the
western suburban railway line at Broombridge, thus opening up a new transport
corridor to the benefit of citizens in Phibsborough and Cabra, and along the suburban
railway line to Clonsilla, Leixlip, Maynooth and beyond.
The need for the proposed scheme can thus be summarised as follows:
to cater for the existing and future demand for cross city trips and to offer
greater penetration into the city centre with enhanced accessibility to
employment areas, educational institutions, retail areas and historic and
cultural attractions; and
to create a Luas network and in the process an integrated public transport
network which supports national, regional and local policies aimed at reducing
the reliance on private car trips; encouraging the use of sustainable transport
modes, and providing for sustainable development.
At present there is a considerable demand for cross city trips which is not adequately
catered for by the existing public transport provision within the city centre. For
example, a passenger wishing to complete a cross city trip on the Red or Green Luas
Line has to transfer between modes to complete this journey.
In order to assess and measure the effectiveness of the proposed scheme it is
necessary to firstly identify the scheme objectives. The following objectives have
been set for Luas Broombridge.
3.2.1
Promote Economic Growth
Luas Broombridge is a critical investment in the competitiveness and productivity of
the Dublin economy, and by extension, the Irish economy. Increasingly economic
growth is being driven by city regions which compete with each other to attract and
retain the best human capital, in terms of education levels, creativity and
entrepreneurship. By positively impacting on the quality of life, sustainability,
attractiveness and connectivity of Dublin, particularly by creating the missing link in
the Luas network, Luas Broombridge will enhance Dublin’s competitive edge in the
challenge to attract internationally mobile human capital and investment and will
capture further added value from the monies previously invested in the existing Luas
lines.
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Reduce the Cost of Congestion
Dublin suffers from serious traffic congestion which costs the state enormously in
terms of lost productivity, higher cost of conducting business, loss of inward
investment, environmental emissions and high accident rates. Luas Broombridge will
reduce traffic congestion and offer a fast, frequent and reliable alternative to the
private car for travelling to the city centre along the corridor to Broombridge and more
importantly along the corridors served by the existing Luas Red and Green Lines.
Luas Broombridge is designed to accommodate a high level of existing demand
which cannot be catered for by existing modes.
3.2.3
Integrate the Public Transport Network
Luas Broombridge will create a genuine light rail network, thereby increasing the
benefits gained in the areas already served.
The current lack of a Luas network not alone inconveniences many existing
customers, but also results in the system being underutilised as many potential
customers who would make journeys over the two lines are deterred by the prospect
of a 10–15 minute walk from St. Stephen’s Green to Abbey Street or Jervis Stop.
Since investment in light rail was first mooted for Dublin in the early 1990’s, it was
envisaged that a fully connected network would be built. This network objective has
consistently been preserved in all the development strategies that were adopted post
Dublin Transportation Initiative: A Platform for Change and the NTA’s draft strategy
2030 Vision (2011–2030). By their very nature, networks always give rise to
substantially greater system utilisation than would be generated by the individual
lines operating on a stand-alone basis, as the catchment area of each line is
effectively extended to encompass the catchment of the entire network.
Luas Broombridge will integrate with existing and future transport services
particularly the Luas Red and Green Lines, rail services from Maynooth and
Dunboyne and the majority of existing Quality Bus schemes which enter or cross
Dublin City Centre. Luas Broombridge will also interchange with future projects such
as Metro North, DART Underground and Luas extensions to Lucan. Luas
Broombridge will allow trips to be made over the entire Dublin region without the
need for multiple interchanges on different modes of transport. This integration of
existing systems will offer further economic benefits which extend beyond the
immediate corridor of the route.
3.2.4
Increase the Commercial Success of Luas
In addition to connecting the existing Luas Lines, Luas Broombridge will extend the
effective catchment of the Luas system attracting greater passengers to public
transport and away from cars. These new public transport passengers are expected
to come not only from the corridor of the route, but also from the corridor of the
existing Luas lines and of the other transport lines with which it interchanges. Luas
Broombridge is forecast to substantially increase passengers on the Luas system
and other public transport modes.
As with the existing Luas lines, it is expected that Luas Broombridge will operate at a
profit and will not require an operating subvention from Government. The revenue
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generated will considerably improve the operating position of the overall Luas
network.
3.2.5
Facilitate Sustainable Development and Regeneration
Luas Broombridge will serve both existing and new developments and will help
contribute to the regeneration of long-neglected areas in the north city such as
Dominick Street, Marlborough Street, Parnell Street, Grangegorman and
Broombridge. The redevelopment of these areas will provide key social and
economic benefits to the region and Luas Broombridge will allow these areas to
develop, grow and prosper in a way that is less reliant on the private car and will thus
be environmentally and economically sustainable. Luas Broombridge will also serve
the proposed consolidated campus for the DIT at Grangegorman which when fully
realised will accommodate 20,000 students and staff.
3.2.6
Enhance the Public Realm
Luas Broombridge will enhance the streetscape and public realm along the route
through which it travels. Areas such as Marlborough Street and Parnell Street which
have experienced decline over the years will benefit significantly from implementation
of the Luas along these streets. The enhancement of the city centre realm will help
to increase Dublin as a tourist, shopping and cultural destination.
3.2.7
The outputs expected from the project
Luas Broombridge when completed will provide an extension of the Luas Green Line
from St Stephens Green to Broombridge via Dublin City Centre, Broadstone and
Cabra. The project outputs, with further details in the chapters of this updated
Detailed Business Case that follow, are:
Creation of the missing link in the Luas network;
Extension of the Luas system to the north of Dublin city centre;
Increased public transport share in the region with up to 10.5 million additional
Luas journeys per annum in the base case;
Continued avoidance of operating subvention through increased Luas
operating revenues and enhanced commercial performance of the Luas
network;
Greater integration of Luas, Rail and bus systems in Dublin;
Reduced city centre congestion and economic benefits of enhanced mobility,
as measured in the cost benefit analysis;
Reduce CO2 and other greenhouse emissions and costs thereof as
measured in the cost benefit analysis;
Enhanced image of Dublin as a shopping, tourist and business destination
leading to increases in investment and economic activity;
Enhancement in city centre realm and improved quality of life for Dubliners
and visitors to the city;
Creation of 60 direct and indirect sustainable jobs to operate and maintain the
system; and
Catalyst for regeneration of city centre areas and sustainable new
development of vacant city centre sites.
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Consideration of Bus-based Alternative
The function of Luas Broombridge is to extend the Luas Green line further
northwards providing better penetration into the commercial heart of the city centre,
as well as to provide a link between the Luas Red and Green lines. It will also provide
a new transportation corridor to the north west suburbs of the city and facilitate much
needed access to the planned DIT campus development at Grangegorman.
Luas Broombridge is critical in creating a Luas network. In its absence the city would
be left with a series of spurs and branches off the Luas Red and Green Lines. This
does not satisfy passenger demand nor realise the policy objectives for public
transport integration and enhanced interchange policies.
During the development of the Railway Order application, bus-based alternatives
were considered as a possible alternative along the proposed alignment of Luas
Broombridge.
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has emerged in recent years as an effective, cost efficient
and high quality public transport system. As BRT is a relatively new mode of
transport there are various definitions and interpretations as to what BRT comprises
and there are many different forms of BRT systems in operation worldwide.
Definitions of BRT range from a Quality Bus Corridor (QBC) to being a fully guided,
fully segregated bus system. BRT systems are generally of a higher standard than a
QBC (Quality Bus Corridor) in that they offer greater reliability, which requires
additional investment and improvement in infrastructure, vehicles and systems.
The key issue relating to any public transport system including BRT is its ability to
have sufficient carrying capacity to meet existing demand and reserve capacity to
meet future demand and to fulfil its transportation needs and objectives. Also it is
important that any significant investment in the provision of a public transport system
contributes to the realisation of an overall strategic plan for the Greater Dublin area.
Line Broombridge is included in the National Transport Authority’s Draft Transport
Strategy for Dublin whereas BRT was seen as not being an appropriate mode for this
corridor.
Based on the experience to date on Luas, the key factors of success are the
predictability in terms of frequency and journey times as well as reliability and
consistent performance. These factors are critical to determining capacity. If these
factors are reduced the performance and the quality of the system is reduced and it
then becomes unattractive to passengers and will not achieve the modal shift from
private car. This implies a need for low dwell times at stops, priority at traffic lights,
and a high level of segregation being achieved.
With regards to establishing an appropriate capacity threshold for a BRT system on a
particular corridor, the decision depends primarily on the size of the vehicle and the
frequency of service. Capacity is measured by the number of passengers past a
point per direction per hour. Based on a maximum reliable frequency of 30 vehicles
per hour using a typical BRT vehicle approximately 18m long with a capacity of 120
passengers, this will give an ultimate capacity of 3,600 passengers per direction per
hour (ppdph).
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Two bus-based options were considered. They were a shuttle bus using a
conventional bus type service and a BRT service offering a similar level of comfort
and service to light rail and running on a dedicated BRT lane segregated from
general traffic.
As mentioned previously the function of Luas Broombridge is to extend the Luas
Green line further northwards providing better penetration into the commercial heart
of the city centre without the need for interchange, as well as to provide a link
between the Luas Red and Green lines.
The bus-based options cannot meet with this requirement. It would necessitate
passengers transferring from the existing Luas Green line at St. Stephen’s Green to
continue their journey further into the city centre. The BRT system will not provide
this interoperability and no matter how good and seamless that interchange facility it
will reduce the forecast passenger demand on the system.
Based on a capacity of 3,600 ppdph a BRT system may be able to meet the initial
demand required on the Luas Broombridge section of the extended Green line (as
shown in Chapter 4 Transport Planning) by running a very high number of vehicles
but it would unlikely to be able to do so reliably. A BRT system would have little if
any capacity reserve to meet the anticipated future growth in demand compared to
Luas Broombridge and would be unlikely to attract the same level of demand as Luas
Broombridge in the first instance.
It would not be possible however, for a BRT system to meet or realise the latent
demand on the existing Green Line. The introduction of Luas Broombridge results in
a peak lineflow of approximately 5,270 passengers at Ranelagh due its introduction.
A BRT system would not be capable of replicating this demand as it will not offer this
single extended journey and would require interchange to complete this journey
reducing the attractiveness and hence the latent demand. Should this latent demand
be realised the BRT system would not have the capacity to meet this demand.
Running a BRT system at such a high frequency through the heart of the city centre
to meet the forecast demand can result in reduced reliability and performance,
particularly at road junctions and would likely result in a lower level of priority or no
priority at all. At these frequencies removal of priority would lead to bunching of
services and a complete deterioration of reliability and quality. An increase in
frequency would also increase the operating and maintenance costs.
With a BRT system there would be very limited system reserve capacity available as
the vehicles are not modular in nature. Capacity increase is significantly easier with
a Light rail system due to the modular design of the vehicles.
A further consideration rests with the ability to turn vehicles back into service at St.
Stephens Green, chiefly the provision of a turning area for buses, which is
considered impracticable at this location.
This work on bus-based alternatives concluded that Light Rail is superior to BRT on
most criteria and in particular on the environment and integration aspects. Evidence
would also suggest that light rail systems have a greater positive impact on business
investment decisions than BRT systems due to the perceived permanence of the
infrastructure.
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Thus a bus-based alternative was not considered further as an alternative to the
proposed scheme.
3.4
Identification of Preferred Route
The process of selecting a preferred route corridor for the Luas Broombridge project
commenced with an assessment of options for, in the first instance, the segment of
the route between the St. Stephen’s Green terminus of the Luas Green Line and the
Red Line.
A total of five potential route options were initially evaluated with each of these
options terminating in the city centre at either O’Connell Street or Marlborough Street
as illustrated in Appendix 1.
The assessment of the route options was conducted using multi-criteria analysis, as
described in Table 3-1.
Table 3-1 Multi Criteria Analysis
Criteria
Assessment methodology
Impacts on the
environment and
quality of life
The potential impact of the scheme on the environment
involved assessing the direct and indirect impacts on both
users and non-users.
Economy
The economy objective focussed on assessing the degree to
which the economic efficiency of transport can be improved
through implementation of the scheme.
Accessibility
Accessibility is related to the ability with which people can reach
different locations and facilities by different modes and whether
or not this would be impacted upon through implementation of
the project. Consideration has also been given to areas of the
city which are socially and economically disadvantaged and the
benefits that would accrue as a result of increased accessibility
through provision of the transport infrastructure.
Policy and
transport
integration
The assessment of policy and transport integration aims to
ensure that all decisions are taken in the context of the
Government's policy on transport, the City Development Plan
and other regional and local plans. The degree to which public
and stakeholder support for the various options was
forthcoming was also considered.
Safety
The safety criterion is concerned with assessing the potential
reduction in loss of life and injuries resulting from transport
incidents through implementation of the scheme.
The capital costs of the five route options ranged from €86m to €168m with Benefit to
Cost Ratios (BCR) values ranging from -0.4:1 to 4.77:1.
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Amongst these five options, Option A, a route corridor via College Green on to
O’Connell Street emerged as a clear favourite principally, upon the grounds that it
was the shortest route length, had the lowest capital cost, the highest demand and
achieved the highest BCR value at 4.77:1.
The alternatives to Option A did not accomplish the same degree of operational
efficiency largely on account of the requirement to entertain increased levels of
shared running with other road vehicles. Additionally, those alternatives that
terminated on Marlborough Street were not considered to be practicable in the
context of the heavy utilisation of that street for bus routings while a route option via
Westland Row and Pearse Street was not deemed feasible due to the low height
clearances under the railway bridges.
Following a detailed consultation process with key stakeholders including Dublin City
Council and transport agencies, Option A was modified and, together with a new
sixth option, Option F, was brought forward to further public consultation.
Following the outcome of the public consultation process both of these Options, A
and F were then subjected to further evaluation and appraisal.
This evaluation concluded that while the modified Option A had a lower cost of
€102m when set against the €140m of Option F, and also a higher BCR value and
though both options represented good value for money, the feasibility of this modified
Option A in operational terms was discounted on the basis of the extensive lengths of
bi-directional running on O’Connell Street which would effectively negate reliability,
present potential increased safety issues and act as a disincentive to travel.
Furthermore Option F was substantially more accessible due to the broader
penetration of the city centre, the greater number of stops, and the potential for
regeneration of Marlborough Street (MCA Table 3.2).
Thus Option F, comprising a single track loop arrangement along O’Connell Street
and Marlborough Street was selected as the preferred route corridor for the segment
of the overall corridor between St. Stephen’s Green and the Red Line.
Attention then focussed on the assessment of route alternatives for the section of the
overall corridor between the city centre and Liffey Junction/Broombridge.
The disused former railway cutting between Broadstone and Broombridge was an
obvious alignment and presented benefits of reduced costs, higher average speed,
greater safety in operations due to absence of interaction with road vehicles, and
speedier implementation.
Between O’Connell Street and Broadstone, two main alignment corridors were
identified in close proximity to one another – via Parnell Square West/Western Way
and via Dominick Street Lower/Dominick Street Upper (Appendix 1)
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Table 3-2 St.Stephen’s Green – Red Line Modified Option A and F Multi-Criteria Assessment
Primary Criteria
Secondary Criteria
Costs
Tertiary Criteria
Capital Cost
Journey Time
Economy
Operational Reliability
Benefits
Patronage
Revised Option A
Impact
Score
High Cost
2
8 minutes
significant
shared
running.Complex
junction
crossings
Approximately
12mppa
CBA
Accidents
Road Safety
4
2
4
Option F
Impact
Highest Cost
Score
1
8 minutes
Shared running
sections with
less complex
junction
arrangements.
Approximately
12mppa
5
17
4
4
4
4
17
reduced veh km
on highway
4
reduced veh km on
highway
4
Neutral
3
Slight improvement
4
neutral
neutral
slight negative
8
3
1
2
negative
Improvement
1
4
Safety
Security
Air Quality
Noise and Vibration
Townscape and Visual
neutral
neutral
negative
7
3
3
1
Cultural Heritage
Land Use
slightly negative
No change
2
3
RAPID Areas / Regeneration
Slight improvement
4
No Change
3
Catchment served (residential)
improvement
4
Trip attractors / generators
improvement
Environment
12
Accessibility and Social Inclusion Vulnerable Groups
4
11
Greater
improvement
No Change
Greater
improvement
Greater
improvement
15
5
3
5
5
18
Interchanges
Good interchange
O'Connell with MN
Good interchange O'Connell
4
with MN and Red Line. Buses along route.5
and Red Line.
Buses along route.
Policy
Compliant
5
Compliant
5
Bus Impact
Impacts on
existing bus
services
2
Slightly greater
impacts;
opportunities via
new bridge
1
Development Plans
Connections
Supported
No change
Local Authorities
Business
Bus Operators
No support yet
Not supportive
No support
Transport Integration
Integration
Land Use Integration
Geographic Integration
4
3
18
Supported
No change
4
3
18
Public Support
Public and Stakeholder Support
Stakeholder Support
Totals
1
2
1
No support yet
supportive
No support
4
73
The proximity of these two corridors to one another meant the difference in capital
cost between both was in the order of no more that €100,000 and as the modelling
results revealed no difference in demand, the resulting economic performance for
both options were deemed to have similar outcomes for all the key assessment
criteria.
It should be noted that the form of connection to the St. Stephen’s Green – Red Line
segment, being either via Parnell Street or Cathal Brugha Street was also factored
into this analysis.
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1
4
1
6
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A multi-criteria assessment for the route options from Broadstone to link with the St.
Stephen’s Green / Red Line segment was carried out (Appendix 1) and resulted in
the selection of the route corridor via Parnell Street and Dominick Street as the
preferred option. This was due largely to the adverse impacts of a routing via Parnell
Square West on traffic movements and bus stops; the potential archaeological
impacts of a corridor routing via Parnell Square West; the proximity of a stop on
Parnell Street to the cultural attractions of Parnell Square; and the views of Dublin
City Council, which stated a desire for a routing via Parnell Street / Dominick Street.
On concluding on the preferred routing for that segment of the route corridor between
the Red Line / O’Connell Street and Broombridge, the overall preferred route
alignment was confirmed.
In each case, the assessment of the route options was conducted using multi-criteria
analysis, as described in Table 3-1.
The resulting preferred corridors for the two segments of the line were those that
achieved the highest rating when set against these criteria.
The progression of the segment between St. Stephen’s Green and the city centre
beyond selection of preferred route corridor to development of application for a
Railway Order was delayed significantly as a result of the extensive degree of
consultation which was undertaken with stakeholders in the city centre. This
consultation was focussed extensively on the potential impacts of the scheme on
Dublin Bus and wider issues associated with strategic traffic management in the city
centre.
In early 2008 the Minister for Transport decided that RPA would proceed to make an
application for a Railway Order for this initial segment or a combined application for
the complete Luas Broombridge line as it considered appropriate.
RPA considered it appropriate to proceed with a combined application for the entire
line from St. Stephen’s Green through the city centre to Broombridge (Luas
Broombridge) on the basis that this represented a more efficient approach to the
implementation which would otherwise constitute ‘project splitting’.
In conclusion RPA considers that in its review of all route options identified, there are
no environmental, transport strategy, or economic reasons why the development of
the preferred corridor for Luas Broombridge should not proceed.
3.5
Description of the Chosen Alignment
For ease of reference the geographic setting of the alignment is described in two
areas. The first area represents that section of the alignment between St. Stephen’s
Green and the northern extents of the Broadstone Bus Éireann depot. It is
predominantly urban in nature, with the road traffic and pedestrian interfaces typical
of an on-street running environment. There is also shared running with road vehicles
at some locations. The second area comprises the remainder of the alignment from
the bus depot to Broombridge railway station on the Maynooth suburban railway line
and runs broadly along the length of the former Broadstone railway. It is a
completely segregated track alignment with no road traffic or pedestrian interfaces.
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There are 13 new Luas stops being provided along the line as illustrated in Figure
3-1.
The description of the alignment and stop locations that follows is set out as one
proceeds from the current terminus of the Luas Green line at St. Stephen’s Green
north to Broombridge, the exception to this being the description of the return loop via
Parnell Street – Marlborough Street which follows the opposite direction (i.e. from
Parnell Street south to St. Stephen’s Green).
3.5.1
Area 1
Luas Broombridge commences at the existing St. Stephen’s Green Stop terminus
of the Luas Green Line at St. Stephen’s Green West. The existing stop platform will
be extended in length to 53m to facilitate the possible future provision of longer trams
as demand dictates over time. This extended length is in keeping with the design of
all platforms for Luas Broombridge.
The existing underground substation on St. Stephen’s Green West will be upgraded
to accommodate power requirements for Luas Broombridge in this area.
From St. Stephen’s Green West, the line turns east on to St. Stephen’s Green North
where a connection will be provided into a single track shunt area east of the Dawson
Street junction and on the south side of St. Stephen’s Green North. This shunt area
will permit operational flexibility in offering the ability, as circumstances may dictate,
to turn back trams from the extended Green Line.
The existing westbound road traffic movement on St. Stephen’s Green North will be
retained albeit with some reduction in carriageway width to facilitate the
implementation and operation of the scheme. The existing taxi stand on St.
Stephen’s Green North west of Dawson Street will be removed and alternative
locations identified in consultation with NTA and Dublin City Council.
The overhead catenary system on St. Stephen’s Green North and St. Stephen’s
Green West will be supported by a combination of building fixings and lateral poles.
From St. Stephen’s Green North the twin track alignment proceeds through the St.
Stephen’s Green North / Dawson Street junction and enters Dawson Street.
Between St. Stephen’s Green North and Nassau Street, the northbound
(Broombridge direction) track incorporates a shared running surface for road vehicles
along the entire length of Dawson Street. The southbound (Cherrywood direction)
track will be shared running with road vehicles between Duke Street and Molesworth
Street only.
Dawson Stop comprises a single platform face serving southbound passengers
only. The Railway Order granted by An Bord Pleanála required that the northbound
stop platform, located on the west side of Dawson Street between Anne Street and
Duke Street, be omitted.
Facilities for servicing of premises along with provision for bus stops will be retained
on the west side of Dawson Street between St. Stephen’s Green North and South
Anne Street and also between Duke Street and Nassau Street.
The existing taxi ranks on the west side of the street will require to be relocated.
Traffic management arrangements to support the implementation of Luas
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Broombridge along Dawson Street will be such as to limit road vehicle movements on
the street largely to buses, taxis and local access. Kildare Street will be made twoway to its junction with Molesworth Street and during the construction stage a contra
flow bus lane will operate between Molesworth Street and Sth. Leinster Street. These
measures will be facilitated through the implementation by Dublin City Council of
strategic traffic management initiatives on St. Stephen’s Green East enabling a right
turn movement onto Merrion Row.
The overhead catenary support system in Dawson Street will comprise mostly
building fixings save for the junctions with St. Stephen’s Green North and Nassau
Street where lateral pole supports will also be provided.
At the northern end of Dawson Street the twin track alignment turns westbound into
Nassau Street where there will be shared running in both directions with road
vehicles. Pole supports for the overhead catenary will be sited on the south side of
Nassau Street with a single pole proposed to be located within the grounds of Trinity
College.
At the junction with Grafton Street and Suffolk Street the alignment turns north into
the lower part of Grafton Street with only other southbound public transport and local
access vehicles sharing the track. The existing inset on the west side of the street
accommodating a taxi rank and loading bay will be reduced in length. The bus stops
located on the east side of the street will require to be relocated. Pole supports to the
overhead catenary will be located on both sides of Grafton Street.
The route then crosses College Green with the northbound track sharing with
inbound road vehicles on College Green and the southbound track emerging from
College Street and sharing with road vehicles (public transport and local access
only).
At College Green the twin track splits to form a single track loop arrangement around
Westmoreland Street, O’Connell Street Lower, O’Connell Street Upper, Parnell
Street, Marlborough Street, across the new bridge over the Liffey (currently under
construction by Dublin City Council), Hawkins Street and on to College Street and
back to the twin track at College Green. The route of this single track loop is now
described.
The northbound track crosses College Green and enters Westmoreland Street
across the mouth of the junction with College Street. The track will encroach into the
traffic island separating College Street, College Green and Westmoreland Street.
This traffic island will require to be reconfigured to accommodate the proposed
alignment.
On Westmoreland Street the single track occupies a position on the east side of the
street passing in front of the Westin Hotel from where the existing coach pull-in will
require to be relocated in agreement with the statutory authorities.
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Figure 3-1 Luas Broombridge Preferred Route
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Passing across the Fleet Street junction where a new set of traffic signals will be
installed to control traffic and tram movements, the route continues along the east
side of Westmoreland Street where the single platform for the Westmoreland Stop
will be located. The taxi rank will require to be relocated. Cantilever poles will
support the overhead catenary along Westmoreland Street.
The alignment then crosses Burgh Quay and O’Connell Bridge where the centre
median will be widened to facilitate pedestrian movements. There will be shared
running with road vehicles across O’Connell Bridge.
The alignment then crosses Bachelor’s Walk and enters O’Connell Street Lower with
the track bed running adjacent and on the west side of the centre median. There will
be shared running with road vehicles on this single northbound track between Burgh
Quay and the Spire. The route crosses Middle Abbey Street and the Luas Red Line,
where a connection westbound onto the Red Line will be provided to enable
movement of trams from the Green Line onto the Red Line for engineering purposes.
A mixture of cantilever poles and building fixings will support the overhead catenary
for the single track along O’Connell Street.
The existing Luas substation on O’Connell Street Lower, south of Middle Abbey
Street, will be upgraded to provide for the power requirements of the proposed
scheme in this area.
O’Connell – GPO Stop will be located within the centre median north of Middle
Abbey Street and will provide convenient interchange with the Luas Red Line at
Abbey Street Stop.
The location of the O’Connell – GPO stop will require the removal of two bus stops in
this area.
The route continues along O’Connell Street Lower and along the west side of the
centre median before entering into the centre median north of the Spire and runs in a
segregated manner removed from the influence of road vehicles. O’Connell Upper
Stop will be located close to the Cathal Brugha Street junction. The current right turn
into Cathal Brugha Street off O’Connell Street Upper will be prohibited and the centre
median widened at this location. The existing taxi ranks on both sides of the centre
median will require to be relocated along with some bus stops on the west side of
O’Connell Street Upper. Additionally, the Father Mathew Statue in the centre median
will require to be relocated in discussion with Dublin City Council and the Capuchin
Order.
At the north end of O’Connell Street Upper a delta junction will be provided which will
allow trams to turn west into Parnell Street providing services to Broombridge or
alternatively turn east into Parnell Street allowing trams to return to the Green Line
via the southbound track on Marlborough Street.
The return single track to the Green Line is now described.
On Parnell Street the alignment abuts the north side kerbline and Parnell Stop is
located between Parnell Square East and Parnell Place. The existing bus stops
along this length will require to be relocated. Building fixings for the most part support
the overhead catenary system along Parnell Street.
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A new signalised junction will be provided at the junction of Parnell Street and
Marlborough Street. The existing right turn movement into Marlborough Street will be
prohibited.
The alignment is located on the east side of Marlborough Street and crosses the
existing signalised junction at Cathal Brugha Street. It continues along the east side
of Marlborough Street for its entire length with bus and car parking requiring removal
at locations. A single lane of traffic is provided alongside to facilitate access and bus
movements. Access will be provided into Cathedral Street off Marlborough Street to
facilitate an exit northbound via Thomas Lane. A new signalised junction will be
provided at Marlborough Street / Talbot Street and a one-way only entry into North
Earl Street will be implemented for servicing purposes. Marlborough Street will be
southbound.
South of Talbot Street, the alignment continues along the east side of the street with
Marlborough Stop located adjacent to the junction with Sackville Place and close to
the Lower Abbey Street junction. The Marlborough Stop will be conveniently
located to provide interchange with the Luas Red Line at Abbey Street Stop. The bus
layover and set down located in this area will require to be removed.
The alignment crosses the Luas Red Line at Lower Abbey Street and then runs along
the west side of Marlborough Street as far as Eden Quay. A track connection from
the Red Line is provided to enable movement of trams from the Red Line on to the
Green Line for engineering purposes.
Building fixings will be the predominant method of support for the overhead catenary
along Marlborough Street.
The route crosses Eden Quay and on to the new public transport bridge across the
River Liffey which is currently being constructed by Dublin City Council. The
alignment will run along the centre of the structure segregated from other road traffic
and with a lane of traffic on either side for southbound bus or taxi movements.
The overhead catenary system will be supported by combined lighting / power supply
poles suitably placed at either end of the bridge structure.
The alignment then crosses Burgh Quay where a signalised junction will be provided
in association with the public transport bridge. It enters Hawkins Street where it runs
segregated along the west side of the street as far as Townsend Street and crosses
through the median to enter the south side of College Street where Trinity Stop is
located, close to the junction with College Green. The track is segregated on College
Street. Existing bus stops on College Street between D’Olier Street and College
Green will require to be relocated. The route then meets up with the twin track
section at College Green.
The twin track from O’Connell Street Upper to Broombridge is now described.
After leaving O’Connell Street Upper, the twin track alignment runs adjacent to the
north side footpath on Parnell Street as far as Dominick Street Lower. Between
Parnell Square West and Dominick Street Lower, the alignment occupies the full
width of the current eastbound carriageway of the Parnell Street dual carriageway.
The remaining westbound carriageway will be altered to provide for a single lane of
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traffic in each direction. Supports for the overhead catenary system on Parnell Street
are mostly building fixings with occasional poles as required.
The alignment then turns north into Dominick Street Lower where Dominick Stop is
located. An emergency crossover is provided on the north side of the Dominick Stop
to permit operational flexibility. The alignment is fully segregated along the length of
Dominick Street Lower with an adjacent parallel lane of southbound road traffic
provided with some associated parking provision.
The alignment continues along the west side of Dominick Street Lower and crosses
Dorset Street into Dominick Street Upper where shared running in both directions is
provided as far as Mountjoy Street. The alignment in this area occupies the width of
the street.
From Mountjoy Street to Palmerston Place, shared running is maintained in the
southbound direction only.
Support for the catenary system on Dominick Street Upper is provided by means of
both building fixings and lateral poles.
The alignment then crosses Constitution Hill at-grade. No entry for road vehicles is
permitted from Western Way onto Dominick Street Upper or to / from Temple Villas
via Dominick Street Upper. A new alternative access road will be provided between
Constitution Hill and Temple Villas.
Entering in front of Broadstone the track-bed is in open cut section with Broadstone
Stop at road level and accessed off Constitution Hill. A future access to the planned
Grangegorman development is provided adjacent to the Luas track-bed in a cut-andcover section. This will be the access point into the planned DIT campus from the
Luas stop pending development of the wider area by the Grangegorman
Development Agency and incorporating a major access to the DIT facilities.
The existing bus access road into the Broadstone Bus Éireann depot is relocated
further west to enable vehicular passage above the overhead wires.
Beyond Broadstone Stop the alignment then begins to rise to existing ground level
within the confines of the existing bus depot and along its western perimeter. A
substation is proposed west of the alignment with access provided off the Upper
Grangegorman Road.
A possible future Grangegorman Stop will be developed as additional demand from
the future DIT facility materialises. Pedestrian access to this stop will be provided
from Upper Grangegorman Road.
The alignment of the proposed scheme now enters Area 2.
3.5.2
Area 2
Between Constitution Hill and the terminus at Broombridge the alignment is
completely segregated from road traffic.
From the possible future Grangegorman Stop the alignment proceeds into the railway
cutting of the former Midland and Great Western Railway.
It crosses under the North Circular Road and Cabra Road by means of the existing
masonry arch overbridges which are protected structures. Phibsborough Stop
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comprising two lateral platforms is located between North Circular Road and Cabra
Road with stair and lift access into the stop from both roads.
The existing retaining walls of the cutting will be stabilised and strengthened by
means of soil nailing.
The alignment then continues along the railway cutting and crosses under Fassaugh
Road Bridge before coming to Cabra Stop located immediately north of Fassaugh
Road. A pedestrian ramp and stairs is provided from Fassaugh Road into the lateral
platforms of Cabra Stop.
The alignment proceeds north from Cabra Stop along the old railway alignment to the
terminus at Broombridge Stop. This terminus stop is located adjacent to the
existing Broombridge station on the Irish Rail Maynooth suburban railway line
offering convenient interchange facilities.
A depot is located at Broombridge south of the running lines and provides stabling for
a fleet of 19 trams. Facilities include a sanding plant, sand silo and tram wash. A
substation will also be located in this area as well as a radio mast for
communications.
Two pit lanes are provided within the depot shed to enable light maintenance along
with associated workshops, stores and offices. It is intended that heavy maintenance
activities will be undertaken at the existing Sandyford depot.
Staff car parking, a ‘Kiss and Ride’ facility, bus stop / turnaround and taxi set down
complete the arrangements.
Support for the overhead line system along the railway cutting and formation is
generally provided by means of centre poles between the inbound and outbound
tracks north of Cabra Stop and in the depot area. South of Cabra Stop a mixture of
centre poles and lateral poles is proposed.
The terminus stop is located in such a position as to allow a future crossing of the
Maynooth railway line and Royal Canal to enable an onward extension to Finglas.
This completes the description of the alignment.
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System Concept
Luas Broombridge will be designed to operate as a continuation of the Luas Green
Line into the city centre and onwards to Broombridge. Some of the critical design
considerations to ensure full compatibility include:
The structures gauge can accommodate vehicles up to 2.4 metres wide. This
is the same as that used on the Luas Red and Green Lines;
The vehicles will be 100% low floor similar to existing rolling stock on the Luas
Green Line;
A minimum track radius of 25 metres is proposed, which is consistent with the
minimum radius used to date on the Luas Red and Green lines;
All the platforms are designed to cater for future generation 53 metre long
vehicles;
The traction system is designed using an overhead contact system of 750 V
DC using a tram wire arrangement;
The substations will each have a capacity of 2MVa;
It is an open system with at-grade crossings on public roads which facilitates
integration into the urban environment and local street network;
Provision is made for ticket vending machines and smart card validators at
stops. Respecting the integrity of the historic city centre streetscape, there will
be a requirement to limit street furniture at some locations; and
A new generation of stop furniture will be employed along Luas Broombridge.
In addition provision will be made for control systems which are fully compatible with
those in place on the existing lines, including:
An automatic vehicle location system. This will automatically monitor the
location of trams in service and display their location in the control centre at
Red Cow depot. This can be used as an input into other systems such as a
passenger information system and line signalling system as well as for the
monitoring of the operation of the system as a whole;
A passenger information display system, displaying relevant information for
passengers in the trams and at stop locations;
A SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) system to monitor the
power supply system and some of the fixed equipment;
A radio system providing communication between the control centre and
operational staff and also the passengers; and
A video monitoring system and an emergency telephone system at stops, to
improve passenger security and reduce the potential for vandalism.
3.7
Conclusions
There is a compelling case for the implementation of Luas Broombridge.
It will create the missing link in the Luas network and extend the Luas system to the
north of Dublin city centre. There will be an increase in the number of trips on public
transport and a greater integration of Luas, rail and bus systems in Dublin.
The provision of the scheme will realise a reduction in city centre congestion with the
economic benefits of enhanced mobility.
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The implementation of Luas Broombridge will present an enhanced image of Dublin
as a shopping, tourist and business destination leading to increases in investment
and economic activity. The associated upgrading in city centre realm will represent
an improved quality of life for Dubliners and visitors to the city.
A BRT alternative to Luas Broombridge was considered and the conclusion was that
Light Rail is superior to BRT on most evaluation criteria and in particular on the
environment and integration aspects, although the relative advantage is not
substantial. Evidence would also suggest that light rail systems have a greater
positive impact on business investment decisions than BRT systems due to the
perceived permanence of the infrastructure. The appraisal and analysis concluded
that a bus-based alternative should not be considered further as an alternative to
Luas Broombridge.
A number of route options were identified for Luas Broombridge. These route
options were evaluated against criteria and sub-criteria under the following headings:
Impacts on the Environment and Quality of Life;
Economy;
Accessibility;
Policy and Transport Integration; and
Safety.
The preferred alignment for Luas Broombridge was chosen following a multi-criteria
analysis of all feasible routes and taking account of the views expressed by major
shareholders and interested parties during the public consultation process.
The chosen route extends the existing Luas Green Line from the current terminus at
St. Stephen’s Green further into the city centre via Dawson Street, Nassau Street
and College Green. At College Green the twin track splits with a single track
proceeding north into O’Connell Street where a track turnout with the Red Line will be
provided and where interchange with the Luas Red Line is facilitated. The single
track continues north on O’Connell Street Upper past the Spire and turns east into
Parnell Street before returning towards College Green via Marlborough Street, the
proposed new bridge over the River Liffey, Hawkins Street and College Street.
North of O’Connell Street Upper, the twin track to Broombridge routes via Parnell
Street, Dominick Street Lower and Dominick Street Upper to Broadstone, where the
route crosses Constitution Hill at grade.
The route emerges from the lower level in front of the Broadstone building into the
existing Bus Éireann depot and continues along the western perimeter to reach the
former Broadstone railway cutting. From here, the route uses the old cutting to travel
the remaining length to Broombridge stop terminus where a depot will also be sited.
Approximately half of the total 5.6 km length is on-street with the remainder being
segregated from road traffic within the Broadstone site and the old railway cutting.
There are thirteen stops proposed along this alignment at the locations listed below:
Dawson;
Westmoreland;
O’Connell-GPO;
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O’Connell Upper;
Parnell;
Marlborough;
Trinity;
Dominick;
Broadstone;
Grangegorman (possible future stop);
Phibsborough;
Cabra; and
Broombridge.
Luas Broombridge will extend the Green Line into the city centre providing a
convenient, quality public transport service and offering increased accessibility to the
city centre and beyond.
It will be the link that creates a Luas network whereby passengers can readily
interchange between Luas lines and will provide much needed access opportunities
for the planned development of a single campus facility at Grangegorman for DIT. It
will re-use the former railway cutting at Broadstone and open up a new transport
corridor to the benefit of citizens in Phibsborough and Cabra.
This line will be an attractive and efficient means of public transport for the area and
will ensure its sustainable development in the future.
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4
TRANSPORT PLANNING
4.1
Chapter Summary
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The function of Luas Broombridge is to extend the Luas Green line further
northwards providing better penetration into the commercial heart of the city
centre, as well as to provide a link between the Luas Red and Green lines.
Luas Broombridge is critical in creating a Luas network. In its absence the city
would be left with a series of spurs and extensions to the Luas Red and Green
Lines. This does not satisfy passenger demand nor realise the policy objectives
for public transport integration and enhanced interchange policies.
It provides the platform for the development of this integrated public transport
network. In its absence it would be more difficult to encourage the modal shift to
public transport and delay the prioritisation of public transport over car.
A catchment analysis was undertaken to identify the population and employment
trends over the 3 selected timeframes of 2006, 2011 and 2030 and was used to
develop an understanding of the potential likely demand for Luas Broombridge in
the defined catchment area.
There has been an increase in the city centre population to be served by Luas
Broombridge between 2006 and 2011.
To assess the effect of Luas Broombridge the NTA multimodal transport model
has been applied to a number of specific tests. Sensitivity tests examining the
impact of different landuse and infrastructure scenarios were done.
The demand forecasts indicate that the introduction of Luas Broombridge will
add 10.5 million passenger boardings to the Luas Network in the Base Case.
These results show that, during the peak period, approximately 400,000 fewer
trips by car will be made per year after the introduction of Luas Broombridge.
The majority of the passenger boardings on Luas Broombridge come from other
public transport modes where existing public transport passengers have
transferred due to the implementation of Luas Broombridge.
The results show a very slight decrease in boardings made on the heavy rail
network when Luas Broombridge is introduced due to some existing rail users
transferring to Luas because of the increased permeability of the city centre
offered through interchange at Luas Broombridge.
A decrease in boardings on the bus network can be attributed to bus users
transferring over to Luas, as some bus routes run parallel to Luas Broombridge
and services on these bus routes will not be as frequent and reliable as Luas.
The results of the demand analysis demonstrate that there is strong demand and
need for Luas Broombridge under all the different scenarios tested.
The implementation of Luas Broombridge generates benefits for passengers
through greater penetration of the city centre and also presents further
opportunities for travel afforded by completion of the light rail network.
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Introduction
Development of a reliable, efficient and integrated public transport network for the
Greater Dublin Area is a key element to achieving a modal shift from private car
thereby tackling congestion in Dublin, enhancing economic competiveness and
ensuring a sustainable, attractive city for generations to come.
A key contributing factor to the demand for any public transport service is the degree
of integration with other transport infrastructure. There are currently a number of
other transport projects in various planning and implementation phases, which
through integration will have a direct influence on the potential patronage of Luas
Broombridge.
The creation of an integrated public transport system facilitates more concentrated
and consolidated patterns of development and reduces reliance on the private car.
Luas Broombridge plays a critical and essential role in the development of this public
transport network.
The function of Luas Broombridge is to extend the Luas Green line further
northwards providing better penetration into the commercial heart of the city centre,
as well as to provide the critical missing link between the Luas Red and Green lines. .
It will also provide a new transportation corridor to the north west suburbs of the city
and facilitate much needed access to the planned DIT campus development at
Grangegorman.
In addition to extending the Luas Green Line northwards into the city centre and
beyond, Luas Broombridge will provide and enable interchange with the Maynooth
railway line, the Luas Red Line (including Luas Citywest and Luas Docklands
services), the existing and planned Bus network, and the future Metro North and
DART Underground services.
Luas Broombridge represents significantly more than just a link between the existing
Luas lines and the benefits extend much further than the immediate catchment of the
proposed scheme. Luas Broombridge will be a catalyst for urban regeneration and
social inclusion. One major benefit of Luas Broombridge will be that it will strengthen
the commercial heart of the city. Investment can be attracted into the areas served
by Luas Broombridge and new commercial and service facilities can be developed.
Luas Broombridge can contribute to sustaining the business and competitiveness of
the capital city and provide long-term sustainable infrastructure to support the city for
future generations.
In addition to serving the city centre commuter market, Luas Broombridge will also
serve the important retail market in the city centre, facilitating shopping and leisure
trips for people wishing to move between the traditional city centre retail areas of
Henry Street north of the Liffey to the Grafton Street area south of the river.
Most importantly, Luas Broombridge plays a pivotal role in the creation of a Luas
network. In its absence the city would be left with a series of disconnected lines and
spurs. The vital importance of this network effect is demonstrated by the substantial
increase in patronage as a result of Luas Broombridge, compared to the modest
increase in the size of the network. Luas Broombridge thus plays a major role in
realising the full potential of the investment to date in the Luas Red and Green lines.
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However, Luas Broombridge will not only integrate the existing Luas Red and Green
lines: it also provides the city centre destination for future Luas lines to the north and
west of the city thus providing a platform for the development of an integrated public
transport network. In its absence passenger demand is not satisfied and it would be
more difficult to encourage the modal shift to public transport and delay the
prioritisation of public transport over car.
Since Luas began passenger service in 2004 the consistently high passenger
numbers have demonstrated that the public will avail of public transport when there is
assurance that sufficient capacity and a reliable service will be provided. In particular
Luas has enhanced the perception of public transport and has confirmed that
successful public transport does more than address problems of traffic congestion
during the peak periods. This is particularly apparent at times of the day traditionally
regarded as off-peak for public transport. Luas has proven that in providing a high
quality public transport service people now have the confidence to embrace a less
car dependent approach to commuting to work, education, recreation and shopping.
4.3
Overview
This chapter examines the effect of Luas Broombridge on the demand for public
transport. In order to undertake this assessment, RPA has developed passenger
demand forecasts for Luas Broombridge using the National Transport Authority’s
(NTA) multimodal transport model (2006 base year).
This model generates forecasts of future trips on public transport including Luas for a
forecast year of 2030. RPA has applied this forecast model to test the effect of Luas
Broombridge in terms of additional trips generation and user benefits in terms of time
savings.
The principal test is called the Base Case. In addition to the Base Case a number of
different sensitivities were also tested to provide a rigorous and robust appraisal of
Luas Broombridge. These sensitivity tests examined different scenarios in relation to
changes in landuse and infrastructure provision.
A model is a simplified representation of a system. Travel demand models are used
to represent the key elements of the travel demand process using mathematical
equations. The multimodal transport model was used to examine the effect that Luas
Broombridge will have on trip making and mode choice and the change in public
transport accessibility as result of its implementation.
The model takes as inputs, population and employment statistics to generate
estimates for present and future trip demand by public transport.
In order to assess the effect of Luas Broombridge the transport model is run with two
different scenarios. The first scenario is called the Do-Minimum. This scenario
assumes that the projected land use forecasts are met without Luas Broombridge
included.
A second scenario is then run where Luas Broombridge is included. This is called the
Do-Something scenario and this scenario includes all the assumptions of the DoMinimum scenario plus Luas Broombridge. The difference between one scenario and
the other gives us an indication of the effect of Luas Broombridge.
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Catchment Analysis of Luas Broombridge
A catchment analysis was undertaken to identify the population and employment
trends over 3 selected timeframes of 2006, 2011 and 2030 and this was used to
develop an understanding of the potential likely demand for Luas Broombridge in that
area. The catchment analysis was undertaken using two different methods. The first
method is based on information of population and employment from both the 2006
Census and 2011 Census carried out by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) at
Electoral Divisions (EDs).
The second method is based on analysing the
Geodirectory dataset within the defined catchment areas of Luas Broombridge. The
Geodirectory dataset provides address points for residential and commercial
premises that can be used to ascertain the number of premises within a defined
catchment area.
4.4.1
Introduction to Catchment Analysis
Two catchment areas chosen for this assessment were a 500m and 1km radius from
each stop. 500m is the suggested desirable walking distance and 1000m is the
suggested acceptable walking distance for commuting in the IHT’s (Institute of
Highways and Transportation) “Guidelines for Providing for Journeys on Foot”.
4.4.2
Method and Results – Census Data
The inputs to the analysis are stop location data and Electoral Divisions (EDs) data.
The EDs data included population and employment data from the 2006 Census of
the population, population from the 2011 Census of the population, and population
and employment for future scenarios based on NTA projections (Higher Growth
scenario) and a Moderate growth scenario based on the Central Statistics Office
(CSO’s) M0F1 forecasts. The moderate growth scenario is explained in greater detail
in section 4.5.3 and 4.5.4.
The NTA growth projections are based on a NTA land use forecast that was
developed for the draft National Transport Authority transport strategy for the GDA
for the period up to 2030. In terms of forecasting settlement patterns within the GDA
for the transport strategy, two distinct distribution scenarios were explored by NTA;
Scenario A – “Compliance with minimum Regional Planning Guidelines (RPG)
targets and policies” and Scenario B – “Large town and rail focussed development,
also compliant with RPG policies”.
As Scenario B is more likely to support the sustainable integration of transport and
land use it was used by NTA for forecasts of growth distribution and settlement
patterns and to inform the transport strategy for the GDA. The NTA strategy landuse
has been used in the UDBC as the higher growth landuse scenario.
The population and employment density of each of the EDs within the catchment is
used to estimate the population and employment along the catchment. This is an
approximate method as the density of each ED may not be uniform.
A sample of the EDs for the Luas Broombridge 1000m catchment is presented in
Figure 4-1, below and the output results of the catchment analysis using this
approach is presented in Table 4-1.
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Figure 4-1 Electoral Divisions for Luas Broombridge
Table 4-1 Luas Broombridge Railway Order Catchment Analysis
Buffer
2006
Population
2006
Employment
2011
Population
2026
Moderate
Growth
Population
2026
Moderate
Growth
Employment
2030
Population
Strategy
Landuse
2030
Employment
Strategy
Landuse
500m
32,989
76,999
37,397
39,637
88,087
50,324
103,999
1000m
83,596
148,249
90,045
96,002
166,568
115,961
192,841
The recently published results from the 2011 Census of population shows that the
population of Ireland increased by 8.2% overall during the period between 2006 and
2011. This increase is concentrated in urban areas with a population increase in
urban areas of 11% compared with the overall increase of 8.2%.
In the Dublin City Council (DCC) administrative area the population increased by
4.2% to 527,612 persons. This can be compared with the 6.2% increase in the
population of Dublin City and its suburbs.
In line with the increases shown for urban areas during the period there has been an
increase in the city centre population to be served by Luas Broombridge between
2006 and 2011. The population increased by approximately 4,408 within 500m of the
proposed stops and by 6,449 within 1000m. The 2011 population is slightly lower
than the moderate growth scenario population and significantly lower than the NTA
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2030 Strategy Landuse projections. The employment growth projected is modest in
the moderate growth projection above the 2006 employment figures.
The Updated Detailed Business Case (UDBC) assumes employment growth in the
Dublin region between 2006 and 2026 of 15.3%. This figure derives from work
completed by Goodbody Economic Consultants on behalf of the Department of
Transport (DoT) to prepare population and employment projections for use in
business cases which reflects the changed economic outlook in Ireland. The
employment projection is derived from the CSO national labour force projection
consistent with the M0F1 population projection, and assumes that Dublin retains its
share of employment within the Greater Dublin Area (GDA).
There has been significant reduction in employment in the region since 2006.
However, taking this into account, the employment assumptions in the UDBC
represent an average annual growth rate of 1.54% between now and 2026 which is
similar to the long term average growth rate in the region.
The achievement of the long run average growth in employment between now and
2026 seems reasonable, given that employment levels are stabilising and there is
significant spare capacity built up in the economy over the recession which will aid
future growth.
4.4.3
Method and Results – Geodirectory
The Geodirectory method is carried out to cross check and supplement the
information that is contained in the method above which utilises Census data at ED
level. The inputs required to carry out this method are the proposed stop location
data and the Geodirectory dataset. This data included the exact number of address
points for residential and commercial premises as at Quarter 4 2011. These can then
be counted to ascertain the number of commercial and residential premises within
the catchment. A sample of the Geodirectory point data for the Luas Broombridge
1,000m catchment is shown in Figure 4-2 Geodirectory data for Luas Broombridge’
below and the output results of this catchment analysis is presented in Table 4-2’.
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Figure 4-2 Geodirectory data for Luas Broombridge
Table 4-2 Catchment Analysis of Geodirectory
Residential
Commercial
500m buffer
16,761
5,863
1000m buffer
42,402
11,491
As stated above the Geodirectory was queried to complement the Census population
data available. The number of residential addresses was multiplied by the average
occupancy rate of 2.7 persons per household to estimate the population for 2011, as
shown in Table 4-3.
Table 4-3 Geodirectory Converted to Persons
Catchment
Persons
Commercial
(Residential address points*2.7)
500m buffer *2.7
45,255
5,863
1000m buffer*2.7
114,485
11,491
This estimate of the population is greater using the Geodirectory methodology than
the estimate using the Census information and EDs, by 7,858 for the 500m
catchment and by 24,440 for the 1000m catchment. In the absence of employment
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data at ED level from the Census data currently available the Geodirectory is also a
good indicator of employment destinations as it shows the number of commercial
premises within the catchment.
4.5
Demand Analysis
4.5.1
Overview
A series of scenarios were tested using the NTA multimodal transport model (2006
Base Year) in order to assess the future demand on Luas Broombridge and evaluate
the robustness of the transport case and to provide rigour to the appraisal.
4.5.2
Inputs and Assumptions
The demand analysis was conducted using the NTA multimodal transport model
(2006 base year). This model forecasts demand for Luas Broombridge by assessing
the travel time and costs associated with its introduction and allocating demand from
existing modes when Luas Broombridge service offers an improvement or benefit.
Demand for both the AM Peak period (7am-10am) and an off peak hour (2pm-3pm)
is calculated as part of the model runs. This demand is then factored up to produce
an annual demand estimate for Luas Broombridge.
The NTA transport model is a multimodal transport model which predicts future year
passenger demand on public transport in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA). The model
comprises a highway model, a public transport model and a mode choice model and
its overall purpose is to accurately replicate and forecast the effect of the key factors
that influence the demand for travel.
In essence, the demand model is a simplified representation of a real-world transport
system. The model’s overall purpose is to accurately replicate and forecast the effect
and interaction of key factors known to influence the demand for travel across a predefined area. These factors include existing and future landuse patterns (e.g. the
distribution of population and employment in the area); the characteristics of the
area’s transport network (i.e. the costs of travelling through the system by various
modes including the various public transport modes and cars) and the distribution of
travel patterns in the area (i.e. where people are travelling to/from).
Travel choices are accounted for within the model assignment by comparison of
generalised costs of journeys between origins and destinations by the various modes
modelled.
To assess the effect of Luas Broombridge the NTA multimodal transport model has
been applied to a number of specific tests. The principal test is called the Base Case.
In addition to the Base Case test a number of different sensitivities were also tested
to provide a rigorous and robust appraisal of Luas Broombridge. These sensitivity
tests examine different scenarios in relation to changes in landuse and infrastructure.
When the Outline Business Case (OBC) was produced in June 2009 there was
a different timeline and order of priority for public transport projects to what now
exists. In addition, there were different projections to the quantum of development
that was predicted to occur and the timeframe for its realisation. By way of example
the base case test in the OBC the "do minimum" scenario had both Metro North and
DART Underground schemes included with a higher growth landuse, all being in
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place by 2016. Sensitivities on the base case test centred around service patterns,
the realisation of Transport 21 investment framework and a low growth (pessimistic)
scenario.
Subsequent to the development of the OBC a memo was produced by the DoT in
consultation with stakeholders including both RPA and NTA to agree on three
landuse scenarios to be tested as part of any business case development for a public
transport scheme.
4.5.3
Landuse Assumptions
In order to assess passenger demand for Luas Broombridge, three specific landuse
scenarios were investigated in line with the guidance discussed and agreed with the
DoT as set out above to take into account the recent economic conditions.
These are as follows:
No growth scenario: 2006 population and employment;
Future Year (2026) Moderate Growth Scenario ; and
Future Year (2030) NTA’s Strategy Landuse 2030 landuse forecasts1 (Higher
Growth Scenario).
The no growth scenario uses 2006 population and employment levels as inputs as
this is currently the most up-to-date and comprehensive census data available and is
the data that the NTA transport model is calibrated against. Currently, not all of the
detailed 2011 Census data is available. When available this detailed data will be
used to recalibrate the NTA transport model to a new base year (2011). The 2030
scenario uses population and employment forecasts defined in the NTA’s Strategy
Landuse 2030 landuse forecasts1.
The methodology associated with the moderate growth 2026 scenario is detailed
further in section 4.5.4 below.
The forecasting methodology adopted by RPA is conservative so as to ensure
confidence in RPA’s patronage and revenue estimates for scheme appraisal because
a primary source of risk and uncertainty in the preparation of business cases is an
overly optimistic view of national and regional population growth assumptions.
In preparing the UDBC RPA had already revised its model assumptions in light of the
global recession, which has seen the Irish economy contract significantly over the
period 2008-2012. It is assumed that the employment and population growth
previously forecast for 2016 in the Greater Dublin Area will not now transpire until
2030 and are at a lower quantum in line with the Central Statistics Office (CSO)
M0F1 Traditional forecast. The “Moderate Growth” (which is used for the Base Case
test for Luas Broombridge) scenario uses population and employment growth
projections for 2026 which are based on NTA’s assumptions and distribution at an
electoral division/zonal level. However, this growth is not allowed to exceed the
CSO’s M0F1 forecasts, which are defined at a county level. The M0F1 projection
assumes zero net migration to Ireland over the period to 2026 and assumes a return
to a more traditional pattern of internal migration, such as that experienced up to the
1
Strategy Landuse assumes a consolidation of landuse development around heavy rail/metro
corridors.
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mid-1990s. The precise basis for these population and employment forecasts was
agreed between the DoT, Goodbody Economic Consultants and RPA during the
audit of the business case for Luas Broombridge in December 2009.
In summary this Moderate growth scenario assumes that growth in population and
employment slows from the exceptionally high levels experienced in years past. In
particular, it is assumed that net migration into Ireland ends and is replaced by a
situation where there is zero net migration into Ireland. The CSO forecasts which
underpin the forecasts for future population and employment growth are the best
available data.
4.5.4
Moderate Growth Methodology
Following on from a review of the OBC in 2009, it was recommended that a landuse
sensitivity test be conducted with population and employment figures based on the
CSO M0F1 forecasts. Further to this recommendation the moderate growth scenario
has been used as the basis of our Base Case scenario. This section outlines how
this ‘Moderate’ growth landuse scenario has been developed for the NTA model.
According to the CSO M0F1 projection, the Dublin Region’s population is projected to
increase by approximately 13.5% between 2006 and 2026. Additionally, the GDA’s
population is projected to increase by approximately 20.9%.
These projected changes have been incorporated into the NTA landuse forecasts in
the following way.
The 2006 population for the Dublin Region (i.e. the area administered by Dublin City
Council (DCC), Fingal County Council (FCC), South Dublin County Council (SDCC)
and Dun Laoghaire Rathdown County Council (DLRCC)) is 1,186,855. A 13.5%
increase to this area’s population is equal to an absolute increase of 160,225.
The CSO M0F1 forecasts do not distinguish between the Dublin Region’s constituent
counties. As a result, a further step has been taken to apportion this absolute
increase into each of the area’s counties based on the population growth forecast
between 2006 and 2030 (NTA Strategy Landuse). The figures given in Table 4-4
below are derived from the forecasted increase in population between 2006 and
2030.
Table 4-4 2006 to 2030 Strategy Landuse
2006
Population
2030
Population
Strategy
Landuse
Absolute
Increase
% of Total
Absolute
Increase
DCC
505,873
682,244
176,371
41.82%
SDCC
243,843
328,065
84,222
19.97%
FCC
239,998
347,130
107,132
25.40%
DLRCC
197,141
251,152
54,011
12.81%
Total
1,186,855
1,608,591
421,736
100.0%
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Using the percentages given in the table above, the absolute population increase of
160,225 can be apportioned into each county. Table 4-5 below gives the resulting
population growth in each county, based on these proportions
Table 4-5 2006 to Moderate Growth
2006 Pop
2026 Growth
2026 Pop
Growth
Factor
DCC
505,873
67,007
572,880
1.132
SDCC
243,843
31,998
275,841
1.131
FCC
239,998
40,701
280,699
1.170
DLRCC
197,141
20,520
217,661
1.104
1,186,855
160,225
1,347,080
1.135
Total
The growth factors presented in Table 4-5 above are then applied to the 2006
matrices for each of the four counties. In addition, a growth factor of 20.9% was
applied to all remaining zones in the model, outside of these four counties.
4.5.5
Infrastructure Assumptions
To assess the effect of Luas Broombridge three specific infrastructure scenarios
were also investigated. These are as follows:
Current Infrastructure;
Current Infrastructure plus Metro North and DART Underground; and
Proposed draft NTA Transport Strategy public transport network.
For the Current Infrastructure scenarios, it is assumed that the current public
transport network will be maintained and no additional public transport infrastructure
will be present in the future year scenario. For example, Metro North and Dart
Underground are not included in these scenarios. The Proposed draft NTA Transport
Strategy Infrastructure scenario includes the future infrastructure planned for the
region.
4.5.6
Base Case and Sensitivity Tests
Based on the above landuse and infrastructure assumptions the following scenarios
and combinations have been proposed to take into consideration the comments and
recommendations of the audit of the Outline Business Case (OBC) that was carried
out by Aecom and Goodbodys and the timelines and order of priorities for public
transport investment. These were undertaken using the NTA transport model. They
were carried out on both the AM and Off peak model.
Base Case
o
o
o
Current Infrastructure (Do Minimum);
Add Luas Broombridge (Do something); and
Moderate Growth Landuse.
Landuse Sensitivity Tests
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The transport network in the Base case was tested with the following
sensitivities:
o
o
No Growth (2006 Calibrated Population and Employment with
2011 Transport Network); and
Higher Growth (NTA 2030 Strategy Landuse).
Infrastructure Sensitivity Tests
The following infrastructure sensitivities were tested for both the Moderate
Growth and Higher Growth scenarios:
Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1
o Current Infrastructure plus Metro North and DART Underground (Do
Minimum); and
o Add Luas Broombridge (Do something).
This test illustrates the complementary nature of Luas Broombridge with both
Metro North and DART Underground.
Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2
o Current Infrastructure plus NTA Draft Strategy Public Transport
Network (Do Minimum); and
o Add Luas Broombridge (Do something).
This test illustrates that Luas Broombridge is a key component in the long
term public transport strategy for Dublin.
4.5.7
Service Patterns
For the purposes of forecast demand analysis and the economic and financial
appraisal that follow for Luas Broombridge, service patterns have been identified
and have been modelled for the scenarios above.
The associated service patterns for both the Base case and sensitivity tests are
outlined below.
In the Base Case and landuse sensitivities tests on the Base Case, the main
difference in proposed service patterns is the quantum of trams per hour operating
on Luas Broombridge infrastructure.
In the Moderate Growth and Higher Growth landuse sensitivity tests the service
pattern operating on Luas Broombridge infrastructure is 20 trams per hour. 10 of the
trams terminate at Broombridge whilst the other 10 utilise the city centre loop on
Parnell Street.
In the No Growth scenario there are 17 trams per hour operating on Luas
Broombridge infrastructure due to less demand. Seven of these trams terminate at
Broombridge whilst 10 utilise the city centre loop on Parnell Street. Table 4-6
illustrates this.
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Table 4-6 Service Pattern Base Case
Base Case - Current Infrastructure
Landuse
TPH
Red Line
Saggart to Connolly
5
Connolly to Saggart
5
Tallaght to Point
10
Point to Tallaght
10
Saggart to Belgard
5
Belgard to Saggart
5
No Growth
Green Line
Bride's Glen to Broombridge
7
Broombridge to Bride's Glen
7
Sandyford to Parnell St. Loop
10
Red Line
Moderate
&
Higher Growth
Saggart to Connolly
5
Connolly to Saggart
5
Tallaght to Point
10
Point to Tallaght
10
Saggart to Belgard
5
Belgard to Saggart
5
Green Line
Bride's Glen to Broombridge
10
Broombridge to Bride's Glen
10
Sandyford to Parnell St. Loop
10
In the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 which includes both Metro North and DART
Underground in the Do Minimum scenario in addition to Current Infrastructure, the
service pattern is the same as the Base Case Moderate and Higher Growth landuse
tests with 20 trams per hour operating on Luas Broombridge. Ten of the trams
terminate at Broombridge whilst the other 10 utilise the city centre loop on Parnell
Street. Table 4-7 illustrates this.
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Table 4-7 Service Pattern Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1
Current Infrastructure + MN + DU
Landuse
Moderate
&
Higher Growth
TPH
Red Line
Saggart to Connolly
5
Connolly to Saggart
5
Tallaght to Point
10
Point to Tallaght
10
Saggart to Belgard
5
Belgard to Saggart
5
Green Line
Bride's Glen to Broombridge
10
Broombridge to Bride's Glen
10
Sandyford to Parnell St. Loop
10
In the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 which includes the NTA Draft Strategy Public
Transport Network in the Do Minimum scenario the service pattern operating on Luas
Broombridge is significantly different due to the inclusion of Metro South and Luas
Bray line. In this scenario 15 trams per hour operate to and from Bray and
Broombridge. Table 4-8 illustrates this.
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Table 4-8 Service Pattern Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2
NTA 2030 Strategy
Landuse
TPH
Red Line
Saggart to Connolly
5
Connolly to Saggart
5
Tallaght to Point
10
Point to Tallaght
10
Saggart to Belgard
5
Belgard to Saggart
5
Green Line
Bray to Broombridge
15
Broombridge to Bray
15
Line F
Moderate
&
Higher Growth
Newcastle Rd. to Poolbeg
15
Poolbeg to Newcastle Rd.
15
Metro North/South
Belinstown to Fassaroe
15
Fassaroe to Belinstown
15
Metro West
Tallaght to SSG
10
SSG to Tallaght
10
Tallaght to Belinstown
7
Belinstown to Tallaght
7
Metro Tallaght
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15
SSG to Tallaght via Kimmage
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4.6
Updated Detailed Business Case
Results
This section of the UDBC outlines the results of the forecast demand analysis that
was undertaken.
4.6.1
Results Summary
Tables 4-9 and 4-10 present an overview of the results of the demand analysis.
These results include both the Annual Luas Demand together with a summary of the
Luas Green Line Boardings and Lineflows.
Table 4-9 Summary of Annual Luas Demand
Test
Landuse
Annual Luas Demand (Millions)
Do Min
Do
Something
Change from Do Min
No Growth
27.8
35.0
7.2
Moderate Growth
34.7
45.2
10.5
High Growth
43.8
56.4
12.5
Infrastructure
Sensitivity Test 1
Moderate Growth
36.7
45.0
8.3
High Growth
44.1
54.0
10.0
Infrastructure
Sensitivity Test 2
Moderate Growth
38.8
48.4
9.5
High Growth
46.6
57.8
11.2
Base Case
Table 4-10 Summary of Lineflows and Boardings
Test
Landuse
Green Line Boradings
Green Line Maximum Lineflow
AM (8-9)
Stop
Direction
No Growth
8,762
4,087
3,927
Ranelagh
Northbound
1,603 Ranelagh Northbound
Moderate
12,534
5,405
5,267
Ranelagh
Northbound
1,921 Ranelagh Northbound
High Growth
17,456
5,645
8,215
Ranelagh
Northbound
2,052 Ranelagh Northbound
Infrastructure
Sensitivity Test 1
Moderate Growth
13,177
5,599
5,289
Ranelagh
Northbound
1,943 Ranelagh Northbound
High Growth
14,873
5,777
8,133
Ranelagh
Northbound
2,047 Ranelagh Northbound
Infrastructure
Sensitivity Test 2
Moderate Growth
7,063
3,712
1,985
Ranelagh
Northbound
1,174 Stillorgan Northbound
11,317
3,862
3,649
Ranelagh
Northbound
1,210 Stillorgan Northbound
AM (8-9)
Base Case
High Growth
OP (2-3)
Lineflow
Green Line Maximum Lineflow
OP (2-3)
Lineflow
Stop
Direction
The results of the demand analysis demonstrate that there is strong demand and
need for Luas Broombridge under all the different scenarios tested. Part of this
demand will come from other public transport modes where passengers have
transferred to Luas due to the implementation of Luas Broombridge.
A proportion of the new boardings on the Luas system come from the highway
network. This will have a positive effect in terms of traffic decongestion in the city
centre during the peak periods.
The results also show a decrease in boardings made on the bus network when Luas
Broombridge is introduced. This can be attributed to bus users transferring to Luas
as some bus routes run parallel to the proposed scheme which will have a
competitive journey time and a more frequent and reliable service.
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The results show a small decrease as a proportion in boardings made on the heavy
rail network when Luas Broombridge is introduced. This is because some of the
existing heavy rail users at Broombridge now transfer to Luas at the Broombridge
stop because of the increased permeability of the city centre offered by Luas
Broombridge.
The detailed breakdown of results of the demand analysis are now outlined in the
sections that follow. This includes forecast annual demand and passenger Lineflows.
Lineflows are presented for the AM peak hour (8am-9am).
4.6.2
Base Case
The demand forecasts for the Base Case scenario described above are presented in
Table 4-11. The demand forecasts indicate that the introduction of Luas Broombridge
will add 10.5 million passenger boardings per annum to the Luas Network.
The introduction of Luas Broombridge also has a positive impact on both the distance
travelled on Luas and also the time spent travelling on Luas. The forecasts suggest
an additional 65.5 million passenger kilometres on board Luas and an additional
242.6 million minutes spent on board Luas.
Table 4-11 Model Results Base Case
Do Minimum
Do Something
Change from Do Min
Luas
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
millions
34.7
229.2
616.4
45.2
294.6
859.0
10.5
65.5
242.6
Passenger forecasting suggests that a portion of the new boardings on Luas
Broombridge will come from the highway which in turn will have a positive effect in
terms of traffic decongestion in the city centre.
Highway demand is forecast to decrease during the AM peak period (7-10) with the
introduction of Luas Broombridge. Table 4-12 details the annualised peak period
highway demand before and after the introduction of Luas Broombridge.
Table 4-12 Annualised Change in Peak Period Highway Demand – Base Case
Annual Peak Period
Highway
Demand
(Person Trips)
Do Min
Do Something
Change
from
Do
Min
Millions
367.4
367.0
-0.4
These results show that, during the peak period, approximately 400,000 fewer trips
by car will be made per year after the introduction of Luas Broombridge.
Table 4-13 details the annualised peak period Luas boardings before and after the
introduction of Luas Broombridge.
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Table 4-13 Annualised Change in Peak Period Luas Demand – Base Case
Annual Peak Period
Luas Demand
Do Min
Do Something
Change
from
Do
Min
Millions
15.7
20.8
5.1
With the introduction of Luas Broombridge therefore, the forecast decrease in
highway demand is approximately equal to 8% of the increase in Luas boardings
during the AM peak period.
Part of the passenger boardings on Luas Broombridge come from other public
transport modes.
The results reveal a very slight decrease in boardings made on the heavy rail
network when Luas Broombridge is introduced due to some existing rail users
transferring to Luas because of the increased permeability of the city centre offered
through Luas Broombridge.
A decrease in boardings on the bus network can be attributed to bus users
transferring over to Luas as some bus routes run parallel to Luas Broombridge and
these bus routes will not be as frequent and reliable as Luas. A well-integrated
public transport network would ensure that such bus services would be rearranged
following the introduction of Luas Broombridge. This would result in a less adverse
impact on bus patronage or even an increase in bus patronage if routes were
designed to facilitate integrated trips on bus and Luas.
Broader transport planning considerations such as complementary bus services
should be included in order to reflect an integrated public transport network as
envisaged by the National Transport Authority. It is not fully appropriate to carry out
this type of analysis based on a public transport network that has competing modes
but one in which the modes effectively complement and integrate with each other to
maximise the passenger carrying capacity and the availability of a public transport
network.
The AM peak hour passenger load from Brides Glen to Broombridge for the Base
Case is shown in Figure 4-3.
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6000
5000
4000
3000
Board
2000
Alight
Load
1000
Cabra
Broombridge
Phibsborough
Broadstone
Grangegorman
Domnick St.
O'Connell St. Upper
Westmoreland St.
O'Connell St. Lower
Harcourt
St. Stephen's Green
Ranelagh
Charlemont
Cowper
Beechwood
Milltown
Windy Arbour
Balally
Dundrum
Kilmacud
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Glencairn
Central Park
The Gallops
Leopardstown Valley
Racecourse
Ballyogan Wood
Carrickmines
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
0
Figure 4-3 Total AM Peak Brides Glen to Broombridge Load
Figure 4-3 shows that the Base Case peak lineflow from Bride’s Glen to Broombridge
is approximately 5,270 passengers at Ranelagh stop. This peak lineflow figure is a
combined total of the service pattern including Brides Glen to Broombridge and
Sandyford to Parnell St. Loop. This peak lineflow demand can be accommodated by
20 trams per hour (tph) based on the theoretical maximum capacity of 310 persons
per tram. Based on a planning capacity of 250 persons per tram the demand would
slightly exceed the maximum capacity. This demand can be provided for by
operating shorter headways or extending the lengths of the vehicles or a combination
of both. The city centre stops and stops serving the Grangegorman Campus are key
destinations. Westmoreland Street stop is forecast to be the busiest stop. This
shows that with the introduction of Luas Broombridge passengers are travelling
further into the city centre.
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2500
2000
1500
Board
1000
Alight
Load
500
Broombridge
Cabra
Phibsborough
Grangegorman
Broadstone
Domnick Street
Parnell St.
Marlborough
Trinity
Dawson St.
St. Stephen's Green
Harcourt
Charlemont
Ranelagh
Beechwood
Cowper
Milltown
Windy Arbour
Dundrum
Balally
Kilmacud
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Central Park
Glencairn
The Gallops
Leopardstown Valley
Ballyogan Wood
Racecourse
Carrickmines
Brennanstown
Laughanstown
Cherrywood
Bride's Glen
0
Figure 4-4 Total AM Peak Broombridge to Brides Glen Load
The AM peak hour passenger load from Broombridge to Brides Glen for the Base
Case is shown in Figure 4-4.
Figure 4-4 shows that the demand is lower in the Broombridge to Brides Glen
direction for the Base Case with a peak lineflow of approximately 2,330 passengers
at Cowper stop. The stops at Broombridge, Cabra and the city centre stops at
Marlborough Street (the Red Line interchange stop) and Trinity are some of the key
generators of trips and Balally and Sandyford are some of the key destinations.
4.6.3
Landuse Sensitivity Tests
4.6.3.1 No Growth Scenario
The demand forecasts for the No Growth landuse sensitivity test described above is
presented in Table 4-14. The demand forecasts indicate that the introduction of Luas
Broombridge will add 7.2 million passenger boardings to the Luas Network.
The introduction of Luas Broombridge also has a positive impact on both the distance
travelled on Luas and also the time spent travelling on Luas. The forecasts suggest
an additional 49.9 million passenger kilometres on board Luas and an additional
178.6 million minutes spent on board Luas.
Table 4-14 Model Results No Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test
Do Minimum
Do Something
Change from Do Min
Luas
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
millions
27.8
182.5
490.3
35
232.4
668.9
7.2
49.9
178.6
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The AM peak hour passenger load from Brides Glen to Broombridge for the No
Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test is shown in Figure 4-5. As per the current situation
on the existing Green line Brennanstown and Racecourse stops are not opened in
the 2006 landuse scenarios.
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
Board
1500
Alight
1000
Load
500
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Carrickmines
Racecourse
Ballyogan Wood
Leopardstown Valley
The Gallops
Glencairn
Central Park
Sandyford
Stillorgan
Kilmacud
Balally
Dundrum
Windy Arbour
Milltown
Cowper
Beechwood
Ranelagh
Charlemont
Harcourt
St. Stephen's Green
Westmoreland St.
O'Connell St. Lower
O'Connell St. Upper
Domnick St.
Broadstone
Grangegorman
Phibsborough
Cabra
Broombridge
0
Figure 4-5 Total AM Peak Brides Glen to Broombridge Load No Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test
Figure 4-5 shows that the No Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test peak lineflow in the
Bride’s Glen to Broombridge is approximately 3,930 passengers at Ranelagh stop.
As expected the peak lineflow is less in this scenario and the 17 tph service pattern
meets the demand on this section. The new DIT campus at Grangegorman is not
included in this scenario. The forecasts suggest that passengers are travelling
further into the city centre with the introduction of Luas Broombridge.
The AM peak hour passenger load from Broombridge to Brides Glen for the No
Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test is shown in Figure 4-6.
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2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
Board
800
Alight
600
Load
400
200
Broombridge
Cabra
Phibsborough
Grangegorman
Broadstone
Domnick Street
Parnell St.
Marlborough
Trinity
Dawson St.
St. Stephen's Green
Harcourt
Charlemont
Ranelagh
Beechwood
Cowper
Milltown
Windy Arbour
Dundrum
Balally
Kilmacud
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Central Park
Glencairn
The Gallops
Leopardstown Valley
Ballyogan Wood
Racecourse
Carrickmines
Brennanstown
Laughanstown
Cherrywood
Bride's Glen
0
Figure 4-6 Total AM Peak Broombridge to Brides Glen Load No Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test
Figure 4-6 shows that the demand is lower in the Broombridge to Brides Glen
direction for the No Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test with a peak lineflow of
approximately 1,780 passengers at Cowper stop. As with the Base Case the stops
at Broombridge, Cabra and the city centre are some of the key generators of trips
and Balally and Sandyford are some of the key destinations.
4.6.3.2 Higher Growth Scenario
The demand forecasts for the Higher Growth Landuse Sensitivity test described
above is presented in Table 4-15. The demand forecasts indicate that the
introduction of Luas Broombridge will add 12.5 million passenger boardings to the
Luas Network. As expected this is higher than the Base Case due to the higher
population and employment figures.
The introduction of Luas Broombridge also has a positive impact on both the distance
travelled on Luas and also the time spent travelling on Luas. The forecasts suggest
an additional 78.4 million passenger kilometres on board Luas and an additional
285.4 million minutes spent on board Luas.
Table 4-15 Model Results Higher Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test
Do Minimum
Do Something
Change from Do Min
Luas
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
millions
43.8
293.9
804.3
56.4
372.4
1089.7
12.5
78.4
285.4
The AM peak hour passenger load from Brides Glen to Broombridge for the Higher
Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test is shown in Figure 4-7.
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9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
Board
3000
Alight
2000
Load
1000
Cabra
Broombridge
Phibsborough
Broadstone
Grangegorman
Domnick St.
O'Connell St. Upper
Westmoreland St.
O'Connell St. Lower
Harcourt
St. Stephen's Green
Ranelagh
Charlemont
Cowper
Beechwood
Milltown
Windy Arbour
Balally
Dundrum
Kilmacud
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Glencairn
Central Park
The Gallops
Leopardstown Valley
Racecourse
Ballyogan Wood
Carrickmines
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
0
Figure 4-7 Total AM Peak Brides Glen to Broombridge Higher Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test
Figure 4-7 shows that the Higher Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test peak lineflow in
the Bride’s Glen to Broombridge is approximately 8,200 passengers at Ranelagh
stop. As expected the peak lineflow is significantly more in this scenario due to the
increased population and employment projections in this scenario above the Base
Case. The demand is greater than the capacity that can be provided by Luas and
justifies the need to have a more complete public transport network above the current
infrastructure in place to cater for a more integrated landuse and transport strategy.
As with the other scenarios the forecasts suggest that passengers are travelling
further into the city centre with the introduction of Luas Broombridge.
The AM peak hour passenger load from Broombridge to Brides Glen for the Higher
Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test is shown in Figure 4-8.
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3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Board
Alight
1000
Load
500
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Racecourse
Carrickmines
Ballyogan Wood
Leopardstown Valley
Glencairn
The Gallops
Central Park
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Balally
Kilmacud
Dundrum
Windy Arbour
Cowper
Milltown
Ranelagh
Beechwood
Harcourt
Charlemont
St. Stephen's Green
Trinity
Dawson St.
Parnell St.
Marlborough
Broadstone
Domnick Street
Grangegorman
Cabra
Phibsborough
Broombridge
0
Figure 4-8 Total AM Peak Broombridge to Brides Glen Load Higher Growth Landuse Sensitivity
Test
Figure 4-8 shows that the demand is higher in the Broombridge to Brides Glen
direction for the Higher Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test over the Base Case but
significantly less than the opposite direction with a peak lineflow of approximately
2,870 passengers at Trinity stop. As with the Base Case the stops at Broombridge,
Cabra and the city centre are some of the key generators of trips and Balally and
Sandyford are some of the key destinations.
4.6.4
Infrastructure Sensitivity Tests
4.6.4.1 Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 - Moderate Growth
The demand forecasts for the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 - Moderate Growth
described above is presented in Table 4-16. The demand forecasts indicate that the
introduction of Luas Broombridge will add 8.3 million passenger boardings to the
Luas Network. Due to the inclusion of both DART Underground and Metro North in
this scenario, as expected this is less than the Base Case of 10.5 million passenger
boardings.
The introduction of Luas Broombridge also has a positive impact on both the distance
travelled on Luas and also the time spent travelling on Luas. The forecasts suggest
an additional 48.2 million passenger kilometres on board Luas and an additional
181.2 million minutes spent on board Luas.
Table 4-16 Model Results Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 - Moderate Growth
Do Minimum
Luas
Boardings
Do Something
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Change from Do Min
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
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millions
36.7
234.8
616.7
45.0
283.0
798.0
8.3
48.2
181.3
14.9
136.0
194.4
14.2
133.7
190.5
-0.7
-2.3
-3.9
Metro
millions
Table 4-16 also shows that the introduction of Luas Broombridge results in a very
slight decrease in boardings made on Metro North. This decrease reflects the fact
that some journeys that would have been previously undertaken in the absence of
Luas Broombridge by means of a combined Luas and Metro journey would now be
replaced by a direct journey on Luas.
Similar to the Base Case the forecasts show a small decrease as a proportion in
boardings made on the heavy rail network when Luas Broombridge is introduced.
This is because some of the existing heavy rail users at Broombridge now transfer to
Luas at the Broombridge stop because of the increased permeability of the city
centre offered through Luas Broombridge.
Luas Broombridge will interface with the proposed DART Underground project at St.
Stephen’s Green where an interchange will be provided with both DART
Underground and Metro North. Viewed in a broader context, the light rail network
created by Luas Broombridge will provide interchange options with the
suburban/intercity rail network as enhanced by DART Underground, at Broombridge,
Connolly, Spencer Dock and Heuston as well as St. Stephen’s Green. Therefore
DART Underground, Metro North and Luas Broombridge should be viewed as being
very much complementary rather than competing for the same market.
The AM peak hour passenger load from Brides Glen to Broombridge for the
Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 - Moderate Growth is shown in Figure 4-9.
6000
5000
4000
3000
Board
2000
Alight
Load
1000
Cabra
Broombridge
Phibsborough
Broadstone
Grangegorman
Domnick St.
O'Connell St. Upper
Westmoreland St.
O'Connell St. Lower
Harcourt
St. Stephen's Green
Ranelagh
Charlemont
Cowper
Beechwood
Milltown
Windy Arbour
Balally
Dundrum
Kilmacud
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Glencairn
Central Park
The Gallops
Leopardstown Valley
Racecourse
Ballyogan Wood
Carrickmines
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
0
Figure 4-9 Total AM Peak Brides Glen to Broombridge Load Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 Moderate Growth
Figure 4-9 shows that the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 - Moderate Growth peak
lineflow in the Bride’s Glen to Broombridge is approximately 5,290 passengers at
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Ranelagh stop. This peak lineflow is very slightly more in this scenario due to the
increased public transport infrastructure above the Base Case.
The main difference between this Infrastructure Sensitivity Test and the Base Case is
that there is an increase in alighters at St. Stephens Green due to the interchange
opportunities provided by the inclusion of both Metro North and DART Underground.
The AM peak hour passenger load from Broombridge to Brides Glen for the
Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 - Moderate Growth is shown in Figure 4-10.
3000
2500
2000
1500
Board
Alight
1000
Load
500
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Racecourse
Carrickmines
Ballyogan Wood
Leopardstown Valley
Glencairn
The Gallops
Central Park
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Balally
Kilmacud
Dundrum
Windy Arbour
Cowper
Milltown
Ranelagh
Beechwood
Harcourt
Charlemont
St. Stephen's Green
Trinity
Dawson St.
Parnell St.
Marlborough
Broadstone
Domnick Street
Grangegorman
Cabra
Phibsborough
Broombridge
0
Figure 4-10 Total AM Peak Broombridge to Brides Glen Load Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 Moderate Growth
Figure 4-10 shows that the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 - Moderate Growth peak
lineflow in the Broombridge to Brides Glen is approximately 2,850 passengers at St.
Stephens Green stop. This differs from the Base Case which had the main trip
generators at Broombridge and Cabra. St. Stephen’s Green Stop is now a key
generator of trips southbound on the Luas Green line because of the enhanced
interchange opportunities offered with both Metro North and DART Underground.
4.6.4.2 Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 – Higher Growth
The demand forecasts for the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 – Higher Growth
scenario described above is presented in Table 4-17 Model Results Infrastructure
Sensitivity Test 1 – Higher Growth. The demand forecasts indicate that the
introduction of Luas Broombridge will add 10.0 million passenger boardings to the
Luas Network. Due to the increase in population and employment projections in this
scenario the passenger boardings are higher than the Moderate Growth test.
The introduction of Luas Broombridge also has a positive impact on both the distance
travelled on Luas and also the time spent travelling on Luas. The forecasts suggest
an additional 57.3 million passenger kilometres on board Luas and an additional
210.7 million minutes spent on board Luas.
Table 4-17 Model Results Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 – Higher Growth
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Do Minimum
Do Something
Change from Do Min
Luas
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
millions
44.1
292.3
772.7
54.0
349.6
983.4
10.0
57.3
210.7
21.3
196.2
281.0
20.1
192.0
274.3
-1.2
-4.2
-6.7
Metro
millions
Table 4-17 also shows that the introduction of Luas Broombridge in this scenario
results in a very slight decrease in boardings made on Metro North as per the
Moderate Growth test. Whilst the actual number is slightly higher it is in similar
proportion to the Moderate Growth test as there are more passenger boardings in the
Do Minimum scenario on Metro North.
Similar to the Moderate Growth test the forecasts show a small decrease as a
proportion in boardings made on the heavy rail network when Luas Broombridge is
introduced.
The AM peak hour passenger load from Brides Glen to Broombridge for the
Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 - Growth is shown in Figure 4-11.
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
Board
3000
Alight
2000
Load
1000
Cabra
Broombridge
Phibsborough
Broadstone
Grangegorman
Domnick St.
O'Connell St. Upper
Westmoreland St.
O'Connell St. Lower
Harcourt
St. Stephen's Green
Ranelagh
Charlemont
Cowper
Beechwood
Milltown
Windy Arbour
Balally
Dundrum
Kilmacud
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Glencairn
Central Park
The Gallops
Leopardstown Valley
Racecourse
Ballyogan Wood
Carrickmines
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
0
Figure 4-11 AM Peak Brides Glen to Broombridge Load Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 Higher
Growth
Figure 4-11 shows that the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 – Higher Growth peak
lineflow in the Bride’s Glen to Broombridge is approximately 8,130 passengers at
Ranelagh stop. As expected the peak lineflow is significantly more in this scenario
due to the increased population and employment projections in this scenario above
the Base Case. The demand is greater than the capacity that can be provided by
Luas and justifies the need to have a more complete public transport network above
the current infrastructure in place to cater for a more integrated landuse and transport
strategy.
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The main difference between the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 – Higher Growth
and the Base Case is the increase in alighters at St. Stephens Green due to the
interchange provided by the inclusion of both Metro North and DART Underground.
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
Board
1500
Alight
Load
1000
500
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Racecourse
Carrickmines
Ballyogan Wood
Leopardstown Valley
Glencairn
The Gallops
Central Park
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Balally
Kilmacud
Dundrum
Windy Arbour
Cowper
Milltown
Ranelagh
Beechwood
Harcourt
Charlemont
St. Stephen's Green
Trinity
Dawson St.
Parnell St.
Marlborough
Broadstone
Domnick Street
Grangegorman
Cabra
Phibsborough
Broombridge
0
Figure 4-12 AM Peak Broombridge to Brides Glen Load Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 – Higher
Growth
The AM peak hour passenger load from Broombridge to Brides Glen for the
Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 – Higher Growth is shown in Figure 4-12.
Figure 4-12 shows that the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1 – Higher Growth peak
lineflow in the Broombridge to Brides Glen is approximately 3,490 passengers at St.
Stephens Green stop. Again, this differs from the Base Case which had the main trip
generators at Broombridge and Cabra. St. Stephen’s Green Stop is now a key
generator of trips southbound on the Luas Green line because of the enhanced
interchange opportunities offered with both Metro North and DART Underground.
4.6.4.3 Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 – Moderate Growth
The demand forecasts for the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 - Moderate Growth
described above is presented in Table 4-18. The demand forecasts indicate that the
introduction of Luas Broombridge will add 9.5 million passenger boardings to the
Luas Network. Due to the inclusion of more public transport provision in the Do
Minimum scenario the change in Luas Demand is higher in this scenario than the
Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1. In the Do Minimum scenario due to the provision of
Metro South there is very little demand on the existing Luas Green line. The
inclusion of Luas Broombridge in the Do something scenario increases the demand
on the Green line significantly over the Do Minimum scenario.
The introduction of Luas Broombridge also has a positive impact on both the distance
travelled on Luas and also the time spent travelling on Luas. The forecasts suggest
an additional 51.8 million passenger kilometres on board Luas and an additional
171.2 million minutes spent on board Luas.
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Table 4-18 Model Results Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 - Moderate Growth
Do Minimum
Do Something
Change from Do Min
Luas
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
millions
38.8
277.5
740.4
48.4
329.3
911.6
9.5
51.8
171.2
The AM peak hour passenger load from Bray to Broombridge for the Infrastructure
Sensitivity Test 2 - Moderate Growth is shown in Figure 4-13.
2500
2000
1500
1000
Board
Alight
Load
500
Bray
Ravenswell
Corke Abbey
Old Connaught
Wilford
Crinken
Stonebridge
St. Columcille's
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Carrickmines
Racecourse
Ballyogan Wood
Leopardstown Valley
The Gallops
Glencairn
Central Park
Sandyford
Stillorgan
Kilmacud
Balally
Dundrum
Windy Arbour
Milltown
Cowper
Beechwood
Ranelagh
Charlemont
Harcourt
St. Stephen's Green
Westmoreland St.
O'Connell St. Lower
O'Connell St. Upper
Domnick St.
Broadstone
Grangegorman
Phibsborough
Cabra
Broombridge
0
Figure 4-13 Total AM Peak Bray to Broombridge Load Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 - Moderate
Growth
Figure 4-13 shows that the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 - Moderate Growth peak
lineflow between Bray and Broombridge is approximately 1,990 passengers at
Ranelagh stop. This peak lineflow is significantly less in this scenario compared to
the other scenarios due to the reduction of Luas Green line services as per the
defined service pattern and the inclusion of Metro South in this scenario. However it
is a significant increase over the Do Minimum boardings. St. Stephen’s Green stop
is a key destination due to the provision of both Metro North and DART Underground
in this scenario.
The AM peak hour passenger load from Broombridge to Bray for the Infrastructure
Sensitivity Test 2 - Moderate Growth is shown in Figure 4-14.
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1600
1400
1200
1000
800
Board
600
Alight
Load
400
200
Broombridge
Cabra
Phibsborough
Grangegorman
Broadstone
Domnick Street
Parnell St.
Marlborough
Trinity
Dawson St.
St. Stephen's Green
Harcourt
Charlemont
Ranelagh
Beechwood
Cowper
Milltown
Windy Arbour
Dundrum
Balally
Kilmacud
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Central Park
Glencairn
The Gallops
Leopardstown Valley
Ballyogan Wood
Racecourse
Carrickmines
Brennanstown
Laughanstown
Cherrywood
Bride's Glen
St. Columcille's
Stonebridge
Crinken
Wilford
Old Connaught
Corke Abbey
Ravenswell
Bray
0
Figure 4-14 Total AM Peak Broombridge to Bray Load Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 - Moderate
Growth
Figure 4-14 shows that the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 - Moderate Growth peak
lineflow in the Broombridge to Bray is approximately 1,450 passengers at
Phibsborough stop. This peak lineflow is significantly less in this scenario due to the
reduction of Luas Green line services as per the defined service pattern and the
inclusion of Metro South in this scenario.
4.6.4.4 Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 – Higher Growth
The demand forecasts for the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 NTA Strategy Landuse
Landuse Growth described above is presented in Table 4-19. The demand forecasts
indicate that the introduction of Luas Broombridge will add 11.2 million passenger
boardings to the Luas Network. As expected, due to the increase in population and
employment projections in this scenario the annual passenger boardings are higher
than the moderate growth test.
The introduction of Luas Broombridge also has a positive impact on both the distance
travelled on Luas and also the time spent travelling on Luas. The forecasts suggest
an additional 60.6 million passenger kilometres on board Luas and an additional
198.5 million minutes spent on board Luas.
Table 4-19 Model Results Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 – Higher Growth
Do Minimum
Do Something
Change from Do Min
Luas
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Boardings
Distance
(km)
Time
(min)
Millions
46.6
332.7
898.0
57.8
393.4
1096.5
11.2
60.6
198.5
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The AM peak hour passenger load from Bray to Broombridge for the Infrastructure
Sensitivity Test 2 – Higher Growth is shown in Figure 4-15.
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
Board
1500
Alight
1000
Load
500
Bray
Ravenswell
Corke Abbey
Old Connaught
Wilford
Crinken
Stonebridge
St. Columcille's
Bride's Glen
Cherrywood
Laughanstown
Brennanstown
Carrickmines
Racecourse
Ballyogan Wood
Leopardstown Valley
The Gallops
Glencairn
Central Park
Sandyford
Stillorgan
Kilmacud
Balally
Dundrum
Windy Arbour
Milltown
Cowper
Beechwood
Ranelagh
Charlemont
Harcourt
St. Stephen's Green
Westmoreland St.
O'Connell St. Lower
O'Connell St. Upper
Domnick St.
Broadstone
Grangegorman
Phibsborough
Cabra
Broombridge
0
Figure 4-15 Total AM Peak Bray to Broombridge Load Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 – Higher
Growth
Figure 4-15 shows that the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 - Higher Growth peak
lineflow between Bray and Broombridge is approximately 3,650 passengers at
Ranelagh stop. This peak lineflow is significantly less in this scenario compared to
the other Higher Growth tests due to the reduction of Luas Green line services as per
the defined service pattern and the inclusion of Metro South in this scenario. As with
the equivalent Moderate Growth test it is a significant increase over the Do Minimum
boardings.
St. Stephen’s Green stop is a key destination due to the provision of both Metro
North and DART Underground in this scenario.
The AM peak hour passenger load from Broombridge to Bray for the Infrastructure
Sensitivity Test 2 – Higher Growth is shown in Figure 4-16.
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3000
2500
2000
1500
Board
Alight
1000
Load
500
Broombridge
Cabra
Phibsborough
Grangegorman
Broadstone
Domnick Street
Parnell St.
Marlborough
Trinity
Dawson St.
St. Stephen's Green
Harcourt
Charlemont
Ranelagh
Beechwood
Cowper
Milltown
Windy Arbour
Dundrum
Balally
Kilmacud
Stillorgan
Sandyford
Central Park
Glencairn
The Gallops
Leopardstown Valley
Ballyogan Wood
Racecourse
Carrickmines
Brennanstown
Laughanstown
Cherrywood
Bride's Glen
St. Columcille's
Stonebridge
Crinken
Wilford
Old Connaught
Corke Abbey
Ravenswell
Bray
0
Figure 4-16 Total AM Peak Broombridge to Bray Load Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 – Higher
Growth
Figure 4-16 shows that the Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 2 – Higher Growth peak
lineflow between Broombridge and Bray is approximately 2,700 passengers at
Phibsborough stop. This peak lineflow is significantly less in this scenario due to the
reduction of Luas Green line services as per the defined service pattern and the
inclusion of Metro South in this scenario.
4.7
Conclusions
The implementation of Luas Broombridge generates benefits for passengers who are
travelling further into the city centre through its greater penetration of the city centre
and also presents further opportunities for travel afforded by completion of the light
rail network.
In the absence of Luas Broombridge it will be more difficult to encourage the modal
shift to public transport and delay the prioritisation of public transport over private car.
The results of the forecast demand analysis demonstrate that there is strong demand
and need for Luas Broombridge. Its introduction will produce additional boardings to
the Luas network in all scenarios.
The demand forecasts indicate that the introduction of Luas Broombridge will add
10.5 million passenger boardings to the Luas Network in the Base Case.
These results show that, during the peak period, approximately 400,000 fewer trips
by car will be made per year after the introduction of Luas Broombridge.
The Landuse Sensitivity tests show that even in the No Growth test Luas
Broombridge will add an additional 7.2 million passenger boardings to the Luas
network. The Higher Growth test forecasts an additional 12.5 million passenger
boardings to the Luas network.
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The Infrastructure Sensitivity tests carried out demonstrate how well the addition of
Luas Broombridge integrates into a wider public transport network. Luas
Broombridge will interface with the proposed DART Underground and Metro North
schemes at St. Stephen’s Green where an interchange will be provided. Viewed in a
broader context, the light rail network created by Luas Broombridge will provide
interchange options with the suburban/intercity rail network as enhanced by DART
Underground, at Broombridge, Connolly, Spencer Dock and Heuston as well as St.
Stephen’s Green. Therefore DART Underground, Metro North and Luas Broombridge
should be viewed as being very much complementary rather than competing for the
same market.
The additional demand on the Luas network is forecast to range between 8.3 million
and 11.2 million additional passenger boardings depending on the provision of
infrastructure and landuse growth.
When Luas Broombridge is introduced it is expected with this more complete public
transport network there will be a decrease in the number of interchanges required to
complete a journey. Where previously there were two or more boardings required to
complete many journeys, there will now be a requirement for only one boarding.
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5
CAPITAL COSTING
5.1
Chapter Summary
Updated Detailed Business Case
The capital cost estimate presented in this UDBC reflects the current pre-tender
stage of project definitions, design and development;
Wherever possible the estimates were prepared using historical cost information
available from completed Luas projects and existing Luas operations and
equipment contracts reflecting the anticipated demand, capacity and works
required for Luas Broombridge; and
The total capital cost of Luas Broombridge is estimated to be €368 million
(including direct and indirect capital costs but excluding VAT). This figure is
nominal and therefore includes the cost of escalation.
5.2
Methodology
5.2.1
Overview
The capital cost estimate prepared for the purposes of this Updated Detailed
Business Case reflects the current pre-tender stage of project definition,
development and design information available for Luas Broombridge.
The capital cost estimate is based on the project scope as defined in Chapter 3 Project Definition and takes account of the Railway Order conditions imposed by An
Bord Pleanála.
In the preparation of the capital cost estimate the following factors have been
considered:
International market conditions;
Irish growth and labour rates;
Industry norms and requirements; and
Historical cost data, cost information from completed Luas projects and
existing Luas operations and equipment contracts.
5.2.2
Quality control and peer review
The capital cost estimate was prepared by RPA’s internal estimating department. A
series of estimate peer reviews have been conducted by senior management and
documented to ensure consistency of estimating approach & methodology, accuracy
of the rates used and to identify any omissions or other inputs required in the
compilation of the capital cost estimate
5.2.3
Estimating Approach
A systematic approach was employed in preparing the estimate. The key steps of
this approach included:
Understand the scope of the project and associated works;
Identify the main ‘drivers’ in terms of time, cost and quality;
Settle inconsistencies and identify opportunities for standardisation;
Understand practical issues through site visits;
Understand multi-stakeholder and third party interface issues;
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Input other third party costs;
Reasonable consideration of relevant external factors such as access,
working hours, adjacent developments/works;
Obtain drawing/sketches, programme and standards;
Clarify outstanding queries/exclusions;
Identify scope activities, method statements, interface schedules and
quantities together with the architects and engineers;
Produce and populate “Cost Breakdown Structure” by applying benchmarked
and peer reviewed costs for similar work;
Estimate the cost impact of non standard construction proposals;
Estimate impact of procurement strategy;
Identify, assess and factor into the estimate the impact of key exclusions,
assumptions, opportunities and risks; and
Assess confidence (risk/tolerance).
5.2.4
Basis of Capital Cost Estimate
The capital cost estimate presented in Table 5-1 is based on the current project
definition as set out in Chapter 3 - Project Definition. The unit costs have been
derived from historical cost information including recently completed RPA projects
such as Luas Citywest, Luas Docklands and Luas Cherrywood. Land and property
acquisition costs have been prepared separately by Chartered Property Surveyors.
In general, cost information from previous projects/contracts has not been inflated to
arrive at Q3 2012 prices (reflective of the current stagnation in the economic
environment and the construction sector in particular) except in instances where
there was a specific contractual provision for inflation adjustments to prices.
The general assumptions and parameters relating to the capital cost estimate are
summarised below:
Estimates of the capital costs have been prepared at Q3 2012 prices and
escalated where necessary to reflect the timing of activities as described in
the construction and implementation programme;
The estimates consider the cost impact of the form of procurement chosen for
any particular work package e.g. in the case of the Main Infrastructure,
planning and reference design by the Employer followed by issuance of a
Design & Build tender following EU Procurement Directives (see Chapter 9
Procurement Strategy);
The construction cost estimate has been incorporated into the financial model
with appropriate uplifts for risk/contingency and escalation;
The estimate is based on the Railway Order route alignment, tram stop
locations, structures, depot size and location;
The project schedule referenced is “Luas Broombridge – Design,
Procurement & Construction Programme” in Appendix 3;
The risk allowance is based on the 80th percentile value of a quantitative cost
risk assessment for the entire project; and
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RPA will maintain a chargeable VAT status during the implementation of the
projects and thus be in a position to reclaim all VAT charged in project
expenditures.
The current estimating tolerance is approximately +/- 15-25% based on the
level of design information and the knowledge of costs for projects of a similar
nature. As the project evolves it is expected that the level of design
development will reduce the estimating tolerance at Final Business Case
(FBC) / TC3 stage to +/- 10-20%. If the design is sufficiently developed at
FBC stage then it is expected that the level of uncertainty will reflect an
estimating tolerance at the lower end of this range. A contingency sum is
included in the total capital cost to cover this estimating tolerance and other
unforeseeable events.
As the project develops it is anticipated that the estimates will be refined to reflect the
evolving design through a series of estimate reviews and risk, value engineering and
value management workshops. The estimate includes allowances for the following
costs:
The design of Luas Broombridge infrastructure;
The construction of Luas Broombridge infrastructure;
Design, manufacture, shipping to site and installation of all equipment;
Relocation of existing equipment and services;
Testing, commissioning and trial running;
Reasonable stage and temporary works;
Rolling stock;
Property and land acquisition (CIÉ land acquisition costs assumed nil);
Risk and contingency;
Fees;
Project management; and
Escalation.
5.3
Results
5.3.1
Total Direct Capital Costs
The direct capital cost estimate for the project is €218.38m (excl. VAT) and is
presented in Table 5-1 and is based on the current project design as discussed
earlier in this document.
Table 5-1 Direct Capital Cost Estimates (Q3 2012 €millions)
Cost Categories
Enabling Works, and Land/Property Acquisition
Cost (€millions)
52.33
Structures, Civil and Track work, Mechanical and
Electrical and Ticketing Infrastructure, Depot, Rolling
Stock
166.05
Total Direct Capital Cost (Excluding VAT)
218.38
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5.3.1.1 Enabling Works, Statutory Utility Diversions and Miscellaneous works
These works consist mainly of utility diversions and basement or cellar stabilisation
works which must be carried out as part of the project.
Utility diversions refer to civil works associated with diverting utilities away from the
swept path of the line. The rates used to price the direct works utility diversions are
reflective of the location of the services being diverted (i.e. city centre and suburban).
Utility schedules were utilised when pricing the direct works utility diversions. The
costs include for the utility companies’ direct costs associated with utility diversions.
Works to remove or protect existing statues and monuments and arboriculture works
also form part of the enabling works.
5.3.1.2 Structures, Civil and Track work, Mechanical and Electrical and Ticketing
Infrastructure and Depot
The allowances for structures include significant works associated with access to
Broadstone. Structures also include works to existing bridges affected by the route
alignment, works to existing structures and access requirements in the cutting.
Civil and track works includes the supply and installation of track works along the
route together with the necessary crossovers and turnouts, spare parts and
foundations for the overhead conductor system (OCS). The costs also include the
construction of 53m long tram stops and supply/installation of tram stop furniture and
construction of substation structures. This section also includes ancillary works such
as bulk earthworks, boundary works, landscaping, road and footpath works, public
lighting and modifications to street furniture. Miscellaneous works such as art
provision, power connections to sub-stations and tram stops by the ESB have also
been included.
The scope of mechanical and electrical works includes the provision of the OCS
system including poles and overhead line equipment (OHLE), power supply including
substation fit-out, communications and SCADA systems.
Ticketing costs relate to the purchase, installation and commissioning of ticket
vending machines (TVM) and smartcard validators. The estimate is based on outturn
costs extracted from recent Luas line extensions.
The estimate includes for the proposed light maintenance depot facility at
Broombridge. The scope includes the depot buildings (including mechanical and
electrical installations), external works including car parking, wash tank and depot
equipment.
5.3.1.3 Rolling Stock
Allowance for 10 tram vehicles has been included in the estimate. Costs per vehicle
have been extrapolated from recent contracts for the supply of vehicles on recent
Luas extensions. The costs also include spares, special tools and training.
5.3.1.4 Land and Property Acquisition
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The assessment of land and property acquisition costs has been undertaken by an
external property consultant. It is assumed that all property will be procured under the
Compulsory Purchase Order code. Land and property take areas have been
identified and priced. The potential costs associated with CIÉ lands are excluded
from the estimate as it is assumed that these lands will be made available free of
charge.
5.3.2
Total Direct plus Indirect Capital Costs
The total capital cost (nominal and exclusive of VAT) amounts to €368.08m as shown
in Table 5-2.
Table 5-2 Capital Cost Estimates [Total Project Direct and Indirect Capital Costs] including
risk/contingency, client costs, start up costs and escalation (excluding VAT) (Q3 2012 € millions)
Cost Item
Cost €m
Total Direct Capital Cost
218.38
Risk/Contingency
61.45
Client Costs
54.02
Start Up Costs
2.38
Total Capital Costs (Q3 2012 prices)
336.23
Escalation
31.85
Total Capital Costs (Escalated, Excl VAT)
368.08
The total capital cost represents the direct capital cost set out in plus the additional
estimated indirect capital costs as presented in. The indirect costs include the
following:
5.3.2.1 Risk/Contingency (€61.45m)
A detailed Quantitative Cost Risk Assessment (QCRA) has been undertaken for all
aspects of the Advance Enabling Works on a contract by contract basis. This has
involved a rigorous process of risk identification, with simulation and a probability and
cost impact assessment for each key risk. Based on this work risk allowances at 80%
percentile value of the QCRA results have been included in the capital cost estimate
along with a contingency allowance for estimating tolerance and unidentified risks.
5.3.2.2 Client Costs (€54.02m)
Allowances have been included in the estimate for an appropriate level of client cost
associated with the various stages of the project lifecycle i.e. Project Definition, RO
Preparation, Statutory Approval, Design and Procurement, Implementation and StartUp. The costs reflect a strategy of in-house design which is consistent with the
overall procurement strategy. The estimate allows for the necessary input to define,
approve, design, procure and manage the project from route selection to
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commencement of operations. Client costs also include insurance, public relations,
project management and legal costs during project implementation.
5.3.2.3 Start Up Costs (€2.38m)
These costs include the operator’s start up costs, the vehicle maintainer’s costs, the
infrastructure maintainer’s costs and costs associated with the maintenance of
ticketing equipment and public relations costs up to the commencement of
operations. RPA’s client costs associated with supporting the start-up are also
included. The estimate for start up costs is based on our experience with the current
operations contract.
5.3.2.4 Escalation (€31.85m)
Allowances for escalation have been included to recognise the impact of inflation on
construction and other costs that will be incurred during the project implementation
period. The programme for project implementation foresees the enabling works
commencing in 2013.
Reflecting the current economic climate, a realistic assessment of the rates of
inflation has been assumed as follows: 0% for the remainder of 2012, 3% for 2013
through to the end of 2016 and 5% for 2017 to 2018. An inflation adjustment has only
been applied to those costs that are expected to be impacted.
5.3.3
Annual Capital Cost to Government (€ millions nominal)
RPA has estimated the future spend profile based on the Design. Procurement and
Construction programmes for Luas Broombridge and an expected rate of closure for
compulsory purchase orders for property in line with the experience of previous Luas
projects. This is shown in Table 5-3.
Table 5-3 Annual Capital Cost to Government (€ millions nominal)
Annual
Capital
Expenditure (€m)
5.4
2006-2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
17.63
21.35
40.68
82.05
99.43
85.66
21.29
Conclusions
Capital costs are consistent with the design and project definition at this stage of the
project. Wherever possible the estimates were prepared using cost information
available from completed Luas projects and existing Luas operations and equipment
contracts and reflect the anticipated demand, capacity and works required for Luas
Broombridge.
The capital cost of Luas Broombridge is estimated by RPA to be €368.08 million (in
nominal terms and excluding VAT).
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6
RISK
6.1
Chapter Summary
Updated Detailed Business Case
RPA adopts a systematic and structured approach to managing risk on the Luas
Broombridge project;
Project risks are grouped into five main categories: technical, commercial, third
party, project management, and residual risks; and
The risk management process and mitigation actions are outlined.
6.2
Methodology
RPA is adopting a systematic and structured approach to managing risk on the Luas
Broombridge project in accordance with guidelines and best practice. This approach
includes the identification and appraisal of risks, sensitivity and scenario risk
analysis, and the development and implementation of appropriate risk management
strategies. The risk management methodology is set out in detail in a Project Risk
Management Plan.
Project specific risks are identified by the project team through lessons learned
reviews, risk workshops and through regular risk reviews by RPA’s Risk
Management Team. Identified risks, along with their estimated likelihood and
potential impact are recorded on a Project Risk Register.
The cost and time impacts of each individual risk is estimated and this information is
used to carry out a formal appraisal of the potential overall cost and time impacts
using Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). This appraisal helps RPA to predict the likely
out-turn cost and time impacts of identified risks and it also provides a prioritised list
of the most significant risks to implementing the project on time, within budget and to
the required quality and performance standards.
The Project Risk Management Plan and Risk Register are the key management tools
that are used by the project team to manage risk.
It should be noted that this process does not cover health and safety risks. There is
a separate dedicated health and safety team to manage health and safety risks in
parallel with the project risk management process described in this chapter. Design
risk assessments are carried out at each design phase to ensure that the formal risk
management methodology is applied. A senior Health and Safety Manager has been
appointed to oversee this element of the project.
6.3
Risk Identification
Luas Broombridge Project risks are grouped into five main categories:
Technical
Commercial
Third parties
Project management
Operational and maintenance risks
A summary of the main identified risks under each of these headings is given below.
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Technical Risks
Design coordination & approvals – unanticipated design changes or delays in
required statutory approvals;
Scope of utility diversions – diversions of underground utilities have been and
will continue to be a significant source of design and scope uncertainty on
Luas projects due to the difficulty of ascertaining the exact nature, condition
and quantity of utility services in advance of wide-scale street excavation;
Connaught / St Fassaugh Road bridge – it is intended to refurbish this bridge
but due to its poor condition it ultimately may require replacement giving rise
to demolition, integration and coordination risks and extra costs;
Operating systems interfaces – the interfaces between the existing systems
and the works of the infrastructure contractor are complex. Risks identified
under this category include disruption to the Central Control Room, service
interruption, and system compatibility risks;
Ground conditions – RPA has identified specific areas of uncertainty in the
area of Broadstone (a bus depot) and close to the Maxol service station on
Constitution Hill, where the risk of contaminated land is high; and
Scope of Enabling Works – There are a significant number of cellars along
the Luas Broombridge corridor, many of them associated with protected
structures. The full extent of acquisition, filling or protection is difficult to
predict accurately given the likely presence of cellars which have been
blocked off over the years and which remain unknown to the present owners.
6.3.2
Commercial Risks
Market appetite – the international contracting market may be unwilling to bid
for projects that use unfamiliar forms of contract such as GCCC, which
transfers a majority of risk to the contractor;
Property acquisition – uncertainty relating to unknown, uncharted or damaged
basements, owner access restrictions, adverse possession, temporary land
take requirements, arbitration costs, etc;
Contractual risks – uncertainty due to, for example, inflated prices, client
costs, road charges, risk of insolvency, unfulfilled contractor commitments,
compliance with conditions of contract, claims, uncertainty of escalation
allowance, programme related cost impacts;
Procurement process – risk of challenges, errors, omissions, delays, and
client costs relating to the choice of contract forms, method of measurement
and payment mechanisms;
Insurance risks – costs of coverage to indemnify against future loss, damage,
or liability;
Estimating uncertainty - the current estimating tolerance is based on the level
of design information and the knowledge of costs for projects of a similar
nature; and
Programme uncertainty - extra costs arising from a protracted implementation
programme due to limited funding availability.
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6.3.3
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Risks relating to third parties
Approvals – the process of seeking approvals and consents from statutory
bodies can lead to project delays;
Traffic Management – risks due to the requirement to maintain access for
servicing of premises, pedestrians and for public transport across the
construction corridor;
Railway Safety Commission – unforeseen design changes or requirements;
Grangegorman Development Agency, Bus Éireann and Dublin Bus –
uncertainty relating to the design, status and timing of the Grangegorman
Development adjacent to Broadstone Bus depot;
Irish Rail – coordination and integration risk relating to interfaces at
Broombridge and at the crossing of the Phoenix Park railway line;
Waterways Ireland – difficulty in achieving agreement on construction
methodologies or working in the vicinity of the Royal Canal;
Maxol Service Station acquisition – uncertainty regarding the timing of the
property transaction;
Betterment gains – commercial opportunities not fully realised , such as
payment for enhancements to utilities plant owned by Statutory Authorities;
and
Other (e.g., third party development impacts, public relations risks,
environmental impacts, legal risks etc).
6.3.4
Project Management risks
Approvals process risks;
Programme delays;
Quality – failure of contractors to construct to the required specifications and
standards; inadequacies in contractors’ documentation; control failures; noncompliances; etc;
Safety – Operator delay in completing Safety Case leading to delay to testing
and trial running; uncertainty relating to new works assessment; co-ordination
risks between project supervisors design process (PSDP) and construction
stage (PSCS);
Interface issues – coordinating, integrating and managing the requirements of
a variety of stakeholders; and
Construction – access restrictions; late handovers, shared access risks;
contractor performance / default; working hours restrictions etc.
6.3.5
Operational and maintenance risks
Operator risks – additional cost for implementing new operating requirements,
service interruption during construction, business continuity, latent defects;
Lifecycle risks (including residual contractual risks) - over the life of the project
the risk that equipment may need replacing earlier than expected, or may be
more expensive to replace; and
Operations and maintenance - risks that operating costs may be greater than
estimated or operating performance may be below employer requirements.
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Risk Appraisal
The risk allowance included in the Luas Broombridge Capital Cost Estimate is based
on a Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis (QCRA). Data and experience gained on other
Luas projects were used to assess the adequacy of project risk estimates. Capital
costs include a quantified risk allowance for all identified risks; a contingency
allowance for unknown risks; and an allowance for estimating uncertainty.
6.4
Risk Management
The Project Risk Management plan describes the general principles for identifying
and managing risk and the roles, responsibilities, and reporting requirements to be
adhered to by the project team.
Typical mitigation actions for each of the five main risk categories are summarised
below.
6.4.1
Technical Risks
Design Risk: Implement a rigorous change management procedure; design
risk assessments; design freeze; ensure that timescales for approvals are
realistic; include adequate float and contingency; transfer design risk
appropriately; carry out formal value engineering; undertake regular design
risk reviews; specify minimum design and approvals periods;
Unforeseen elements: Advance non-invasive radar mapping of underground
services assists in providing a fuller understanding of their extent. However,
at implementation stage it is generally the case that the difficulties of working
in a confined street space combined with the density of services results in
further works that cannot be foreseen at this early stage of project
development;
Cellars – undertake surveys of cellars along the corridor and map historic
records of cellars onto alignment plans;
Ground conditions – undertake trial pits and boreholes along the alignment
corridor and test soil samples for contaminants;
Environmental Risks: Implement RPA’s Environmental Management System
(EMS); draft robust environmental requirements; implement and carry out
regular audits; insure against damage, loss, and liabilities; and
Stakeholders: Implement the project Stakeholder Management Plan; maintain
close and ongoing liaison with stakeholders, ensure early communication to
secure timely agreements with approvals agencies; clarify and formally agree
design levels and standards.
6.4.2
Commercial Risks
Agree inflation figures with NTA review with tenderers before award of
contract; tie to euro;
Ensure that bidders have sufficient financial capacity; performance bonds /
parent company guarantees, retention bonds;
Professional Indemnity provisions: Peer review of designs; adequate design
levels; ensure contractors have collateral warranty with RPA and insurance to
underwrite same;
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Closely monitor contractor performance;
Enforce standard procurement and contract management procedures;
Early communication of variation orders;
Contractor risks: appoint competent contractors; agree deliverables lists;
ensure that all commitments are clearly defined;
Pre-qualify contractors;
Include contingency plans in contracts e.g. early access provisions;
Obtain up-to-date valuations of property requirements; procure property
consultant; and
Value management and engineering to achieve better value for money from
the investment.
6.4.3
Risks relating to third parties
Agree construction methodology / establish process with Statutory Authorities
by sign off using Joint Utilities Group process for sequencing and durations;
Understand business requirements prior to commencing works; maintain
close communication throughout the duration of the works; keep within EIS
tolerance / limits; maintain detailed photographic records;
Include “Insurance & Insurance claims Management Requirements” in
contracts; Insurance spot checks on site; early discussion with brokers;
Manage relationships with third parties - implement the project Stakeholder
Management Plan;
Ensure CPO land requirements are adequate;
Negotiate early agreements with land owners;
Negotiate early agreements on betterment credits with utility owners; and
Ensure compliance with current regulations.
6.4.4
Project Management risks
Robust programme evaluation; incentivise completion in a timely manner
using conditions of contract;
Investigate alternative methods of construction;
Implement Project Execution Plan;
Manage interfaces;
Apply formal Risk and Value Management procedure;
Use NTA stage-gate reviews to verify progress on plan; and
Use Earned Value analysis to indicate cost and schedule performance.
6.4.5
Operational and maintenance risks
Early agreement of roles and responsibilities with operator;
Consider contractual agreement between operator and contractor;
Carry out whole life cost evaluations of tenders.
6.5
Risk Reviews & Reporting
Risks will continue to be identified, evaluated and managed by RPA using regular
risk review meetings and workshops in accordance with the Project Risk
Management plan. The purpose of these reviews is to assess and validate progress
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on mitigation actions and identify any new or increasing risk trends. Critical risks will
be escalated to the Project Steering Group for early resolution.
RPA uses standard project dashboards and trend reports to alert management to
areas of increasing risk and to record progress on mitigating actions. These reports
also include a list of the top risks that are most likely to affect both the project end
date and the out-turn cost so that management can make informed decisions to
mitigate the likelihood of delays and cost over-runs and to justify draw-down of
contingency funds if required.
6.6
Contract Risk Allocation
The recommended procurement strategy for Luas Broombridge is summarised in
Chapter 9. The risk factors that were considered by RPA in developing this strategy
include:
Risk appetite of the private sector for unfamiliar forms of contract and level of
risk that is transferred to the contractor; and
Optimum balance and transfer of design, interface, commercial, and
construction risks.
6.7
Conclusions
RPA implements a formal Project Risk Management Plan that incorporates ongoing
risk identification, analysis, risk management, and risk review activities as part of an
overall corporate Risk Management Plan.
This process has been applied to identify and quantify the key project risks that are
most likely to affect Luas Broombridge Project objectives.
Throughout the project lifecycle RPA will continue to monitor risk and will undertake
the necessary mitigation as appropriate.
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7
7.1
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ECONOMIC APPRAISAL
Chapter Summary
An economic appraisal was conducted on Luas Broombridge where the changes
to user and non-user time benefits, operating cost impacts, and fares as a result
of the implementation of Luas Broombridge were calculated;
The economic appraisal has been conducted according to the Department of
Transport, Tourism and Sport (DTTAS) economic appraisal guidance;
The results from the Base Case demonstrate there is a strong economic case for
the scheme, with a BCR of 2.28:1 showing the benefits of Luas Broombridge are
more than double the costs;
The majority of the benefits arise from reductions in journey times, for public
transport users travelling to work or on non-business trips; there are also
significant environmental benefits as a result of car transfer during the peak
periods;
A series of sensitivity tests indicate that the value-for-money case for the
scheme is not eroded by changing the economic parameters used in the
appraisal.
A Shadow Price of Public Funds (SPPF) sensitivity test based on an application
of 150% to the capital costs and the renewals costs of the project was carried
out. This reduces the BCR in the central case from 2.28:1 to 1.54:1;
Traditional transport CBA fails to include some important economic benefits.
These benefits typically derive from the presence of imperfect competition and
economies of scale in production, and have become known as Wider impacts
(WIs);
When a conservative assumption of an uplift to the conventionally measured
benefits of 20% due to WIs is applied the base case including the SPPF
sensitivity, the BCR increases from 1.54:1 to 1.83:1;
Increasing the test discount rate from 4% to 6% reduces the BCR in the base
case from 2.28:1 to 1.6:1;
Using a 20 year appraisal period instead of a 30 year appraisal period reduces
the BCR in the base case from 2.28:1 to 1.76:1.
The Landuse Sensitivity scenarios display BCRs of between 0.95:1 and 8.72:1;
The Infrastructure Sensitivity Test which includes both Metro North and DART
Underground in the public transport network displays a strong economic case of
2.2:1 demonstrating further the strong economic case for the scheme.
7.2
Introduction
The National Transport Authority’s (NTA) multimodal transport model has been
applied to develop forecasts of patronage and costs for highway and public transport
modes, for a base year of 2006 and a future year of 2030. The outputs developed
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from the transport model in turn provide the inputs for the calculation of the benefits
of Luas Broombridge. The TUBA2 programme has been used to calculate the user
and non-user benefits of the scheme. TUBA is the standard transport appraisal
software that has been used for many years to convert transport demand model
outputs into economic appraisal.
TUBA calculates changes to user and non-user time benefits, operating cost impacts,
and fares as a result of the implementation of Luas Broombridge. These impacts are
monetised, discounted and summarised within TUBA and compared with the full
discounted costs of the scheme over a thirty year appraisal period to give an
indication of the economic worth of the project. The economic appraisal has been
conducted according to the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport (DTTAS)’s
economic appraisal guidance, as set out in Guidelines on a Common Appraisal
Framework for Transport Projects and Programmes3, (CAF). The parameters used in
the economic appraisal are included in Appendix 2. The monetisation of
environmental impacts uses emission factors and values prepared for the CAF4 which
are based on the 2009 Department of Finance circular 5 on arrangements for the
accounting of CO2 emissions in capital investment projects. Accident impacts are
estimated and monetised using the parameters specified for this purpose in the CAF,
which are included in Appendix 2.
The forecasts of additional Luas patronage and revenue are outlined in Chapter 4 –
Transport Planning. The transport and modelling assumptions which have a bearing
on the economic outcome of the project are summarised below in Table 7-1.
In keeping with the RPA approach to project appraisal, only projects that are
committed or highly likely to proceed are included in the assumptions for the project.
Generally a scheme that performs well under such conservative assumptions is likely
to do at least as well in reality.
The CAF requires that an assessment of the disbenefits arising during the
construction phase be carried out. RPA has been advised by the NTA that the
necessary revisions to Dublin Bus operations will be put in place to ensure that no
additional net cost will be incurred by Dublin Bus during the construction of Luas
Broombridge. The NTA is satisfied that Dublin Bus will reorganise its services to
eliminate net impacts on operating costs and revenue as a result of the construction
of Luas Broombridge, and that the necessary traffic management measures will be
put in place to aid this process. These traffic management measures will be
implemented at the earliest stage feasible in order to provide an optimum operating
environment during the construction phase.
2
Transport User Benefit Appraisal – see here for further information.
3
Guidelines on a Common Appraisal Framework for Transport Projects and Programmes ,
June
2009.
Available
here:
http://www.transport.ie/upload/general/11801DOT_COMMON_APPRAISAL_FRAMEWORK1-0.PDF
3
4
Treatment of Transport Emissions in the Common Appraisal Framework, Draft, September
2009, Goodbody Economic Consultants
5
Department of Finance Circular S431/65/07
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Table 7-1 Transport and Modelling Assumptions
Do
minimum
Do
Something
Luas Tallaght to Connolly (Red Line)
Yes
Yes
Luas St Stephen’s Green to Sandyford (Green Line)
Yes
Yes
Luas Connolly to The Point (Line C1)
Yes
Yes
Luas Sandyford to Bride’s Glen (Line B1)
Yes
Yes
Luas Belgard to Saggart (Line A1)
Yes
Yes
Luas Bride’s Glen to Bray/Fassaroe (Line B2)
No
No
No
Yes
Luas City-centre to Lucan (Line F)
No
No
Metro North
No
No
Metro West
No
No
DART Underground
No
No
Dublin Port Tunnel
Yes
Yes
Outer Ring Road
Yes
Yes
Luas P&R
Yes
Yes
DTO Quality Bus Network
Yes
Yes
Integrated Ticketing
Yes
Yes
Input
Luas Stephen’s
Broombridge)
7.3
Green
to
Broombridge
(Luas
Economic Appraisal
RPA carried out an economic appraisal of Luas Broombridge based on the results of
the modelled scenarios carried out during the forecast demand analysis and the
estimates of capital and operating costs of the scheme. For the economic appraisal it
has been assumed that:
The scheme opens on 1st January 2018
The evaluation period is 30 years
The discount rate is 4%
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The results from the modelled scenarios for 2006 and 2030 were used to give the
patronage and benefit levels for the duration of the appraisal period (30 years), i.e.
there was no growth in demand beyond 2030 assumed. This is a conservative
assumption as in reality it is likely that general economic growth over the appraisal
period will lead to an increase in demand for trips to and within the city centre, which
is the market served by Luas Broombridge.
The capital, operating, maintenance and renewal costs of the project over the
appraisal period have been calculated by RPA and are summarised below. These
costs are expressed in 2002 prices and are in present value terms. The figures below
exclude VAT. Provision for both risk and contingency is included in the costs.
Total Capital Cost = €209.1m
Total Operating and Maintenance and Renewals Costs = €72.1m
All parameters and the methodology applied are consistent with the Department of
Transport guidelines on parameter values for use in the appraisal of transport
projects. All costs and benefits in the evaluation have been discounted to 2002 prices
for analysis purposes (financial and funding projections take account of escalation in
values over time).
The 2006 and future year forecasts of additional patronage and revenue are outlined
in Chapter 4. The transport assumptions and service patterns for all modelled
scenarios carried out are also outlined in Chapter 4 Transport Planning.
7.4
Base Case
The results of the economic appraisal for the Base Case are presented in Table 7-2.
In this table the public transport revenue impact is disaggregated between
Luas/Metro and Rail/Bus.
All property costs are included in the economic appraisal at their market value as
required by the Common Appraisal Framework. This includes €11.5m (M9 12 prices)
for CIÉ property which RPA assumes will be transferred at zero cost.
The Base case scenario for the economic appraisal adopts the Moderate Growth
landuse scenario, outlined in Chapter 4, and assumes the current infrastructure
scenario. A residual value has been included as per the CAF, which amounts to
€36m in present value terms.
These results, shown in Table 7-2, demonstrate there is a strong economic case for
the scheme, with a BCR of 2.28:1, and a net present value of €296m in 2002 prices.
The economic benefit (value for money) of the scheme is substantially greater than
the costs. A positive net present value indicates the internal rate of return (IRR) of
the project is above the test discount rate (4%). The actual IRR of the project in the
Base Case Scenario is 8.1%. The BCR of 2.28:1 means that the benefits of the
scheme are more than double the costs. This represents very good value for money
for a scheme of this nature.
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Table 7-2 Results of the Base Case Scenario
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
Base Case
Present Value €000s (2002)
Consumer User Benefits
425,521
Business User Benefits
123,410
Private Sector Provider Impacts
- 55,759
Other Business Impacts
Accident Benefits
358
Air Emissions Savings
34,090
Net present Value of Benefits (PVB)
527,620
Net present Value Costs (PVC)
231,457
Overall Impact
Net present Value (NPV)
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR)
Appraisal Period
296,163
2.28
2018 to 2047
The majority of the benefits arise from reductions in journey times, including waiting
times and walking times, for public transport users travelling to work or on nonbusiness trips. There are also significant environmental benefits as a result of
transfer from car to public transport during the peak periods.
There is a net reduction in revenue accruing to transport operators as a result of
these scheme (shown as ‘Private Sector Provider Impacts in Table 7-2) This is as a
result of multi-modal (bus-tram or bus-bus) public transport journeys being replaced
by single Luas journeys, as people make longer journeys on the extended Luas
Green Line.
7.5
7.5.1
Scenario Testing
Overview
In order to test the robustness of the results of the economic appraisal the
performance of Luas Broombridge has been examined under further scenarios to
reflect the main risks to the economic performance of the scheme.
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Economic Appraisal Parameters Sensitivity Tests
The Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DPER) recently published a new
Public Spending Code6 code. The Public Spending Code was produced with the
intention to introduce best practice in the appraisal, implementation and evaluation of
projects and programmes across sectors including transport.
Following the review and consideration of the elements of the code RPA have
identified a number of issues that are not suitable for Light Rail projects.
Current DTTAS cost-benefit appraisal guidance, as set out in the CAF, recommends
a SPPF of 100%. This is on the basis that it would distort decision-making in a
context in which some of the market-correcting benefits of transport projects were not
monetised. In addition, the application of an SPPF requires the tracing of all
Exchequer flows arising from the project, and not merely the inflation of capital costs
by the SPPF. In particular, tax receipts and Exchequer outlays, both direct and
indirect, would need to be established. With regard to indirect effects, the
employment effect of projects would have to be assessed, so that tax flows to the
Exchequer and social welfare payments avoided could be brought into the reckoning.
Developer contributions and user charges would also need to be considered.
In previous research conducted for RPA by Goodbody Economic Consultants it was
found that many countries apply a SPPF of 100%, and the highest rate applied (in
Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and France) was 130%. On this basis it was concluded
that a rate of 150% is too high in Ireland. The Public Spending Code recognises this
where it states: “While there is as yet no change to the formally recommended
parameter value for the shadow price of public funds, work has begun on revising the
parameter value for the shadow cost of public funds. This should be completed by
end 2012.”
The new Public Spending Code recommends an SPPF of 150%. While this updated
business case is being prepared using existing DTTAS parameters a sensitivity test
has been conducted on the business case in light of the recommendation of the use
of a SPPF of 150% in the VFM code.
Appraisal Timeframe
The code states that road and rail projects should be appraised over a 20 year
timeframe. RPA do not agree with this. The code should refer to the standard capital
appraisal rule that appraisal periods should reflect the useful economic life of the
asset as a minimum, which for road and rail projects is longer than 20 years, often
significantly longer. A 30 year appraisal period for road and rail projects is usually the
minimum period, with a residual value used to capture the economic value of assets
with longer economic life spans (e.g. tunnels). This is a standard approach adopted
in EC, UK guidance etc.
7.5.3
Shadow Price of Public Funds (SPPF) Sensitivity Test
We have tested the impact of applying a SPPF of 150% to the capital costs and the
renewals costs of the project. This sensitivity test has been conducted on the Base
6
Available here: http://publicspendingcode.per.gov.ie/
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Case scenario. Table 7-3 illustrates the impact of this sensitivity test on the Base
Case.
7-3 SPFF Sensitivity Test
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
Base Case – Sensitivity with Shadow Price of Public Funds
(150%)
Present Value €000s (2002)
Consumer User Benefits
425,521
Business User Benefits
123,410
Private Sector Provider Impacts
-55,759
Other Business Impacts
Accident Benefits
358
Air Emissions Savings
34,090
Net present Value of Benefits (PVB)
527,620
Net present Value Costs (PVC)
342,123
Overall Impact
Net present Value (NPV)
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR)
Appraisal Period
185,497
1.54
2018 to 2047
Applying a SPPF of 150% to the capital costs and renewal costs reduces the BCR in
the central case from 2.28:1 to 1.54:1, and reduces the net present value from
€296m to €185m.
7.5.4
Wider Impacts
It has been known for some time that traditional transport CBA fails to include some
important economic impacts of new or improved transport services. The UK
programme of research on such impacts commenced with the Standing Advisory
Committee for Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) in 1999. In recent years the UK
DfT has developed a theoretical and methodological basis for measuring and valuing
these effects.
These impacts typically derive from the presence of imperfect competition and
economies of scale in production, and have become known as Wider Impacts (WIs).
These benefits are:
Agglomeration economies (increased productivity through agglomeration and
the facilitation of jobs moving to more productive areas);
Labour market effects (increased labour supply); and
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Increased output in imperfectly competitive markets (related to business
travel).
Until comparatively recently there has been little agreement on the definition of these
effects and the extent to which they are already captured in conventionally measured
transport benefits. There is now broad agreement within the transport planning
community on the existence of such effects, and the fact that they are additional to
the traditionally measured benefits of transport.
Since 2005, the emerging methodology developed by the DfT has been used to
quantify and value these effects. Formal guidance on the calculation of these effects
was published by the DfT in 2009.
Evidence to date demonstrates that WIs can increase conventionally measured
benefits by between 10%-40%, depending on the nature and location of the scheme.
In addition experience shows that WIs are proportionately more important for
schemes which:
increase accessibility in urban areas;
serve areas of high productivity and high employment density; and
serve areas with high levels of employment in financial and business services
sectors.
Relative to standard transport appraisal, which is a mature discipline with a common
foundation practiced in numerous jurisdictions internationally, the incorporation of
WIs into CBA is a relatively new departure for transport appraisal. In Ireland, the
Common Appraisal Framework (CAF) does not require that wider impacts be
quantified in the CBA and the guidance and detailed parameters required to estimate
WIs rigorously do not yet exist in Ireland.
However, a sensitivity has been conducted which increments the conventional
benefits of Luas Broombridge by 20%, as a conservative assessment of the
magnitude of Wider Impacts which a scheme such as Luas Broombridge could be
expected to have. This sensitivity has been applied to the base case in combination
with the SPPF sensitivity test discussed above, in light of the fact that one of the
arguments against the application of an SPPF for transport projects is that not all
market-correcting effects of transport are monetised within conventional CBA. The
summary appraisal results are presented in Table 7-4.
When a conservative assumption of an uplift to the conventionally-measured benefits
of 20% due to Wider Impacts is applied the BCR increases from 1.54:1 (in the base
case with a SPPF of 150% applied) to 1.83:1, and the net present value increases
from €185m to €284m.
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7-4 Wider Impacts Analysis
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
Base Case – Sensitivity with SPPF (150%) and Wider Impacts
Present Value €000s (2002)
Consumer User Benefits
510,625
Business User Benefits
148,092
Private Sector Provider Impacts
- 66,911
Other Business Impacts
Accident Benefits
358
Air Emissions Savings
34,090
Net present Value of Benefits (PVB)
626,254
Net present Value Costs (PVC)
342,123
Overall Impact
Net present Value (NPV)
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR)
Appraisal Period
7.5.5
284,131
1.83
2018 to 2047
Discount Rate Sensitivity Tests
Currently the Department of Finance mandated test discount rate is 4%. However,
the Public Spending Code recommends that appraisers test the robustness of CBA’s
against increased discount rates of varying magnitudes. Therefore we have
conducted sensitivity tests on the base case using discount rates of 5% and 6%. The
summary appraisal results for are presented in Table 7-5 below.
The use of a 5% discount rate rather than 4% reduces the base case BCR from
2.28:1 to 1.9:1, and reduces the base case NPV from €296m to €183m.
Even applying a higher discount rate of 6% the project demonstrates value-formoney, with a BCR 1.6:1 and an NPV of €107m.
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Table 7-5 Base Case – Higher Discount Rates
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
Base Case – Higher Discount Rates
Present Value €000s (2002)
Present Value €000s (2002)
5% Discount Rate
6% Discount Rate
315,902
236,708
90,642
67,174
- 44,413
- 35,592
266
199
Air Emissions Savings
25,308
18,963
Net present Value of Benefits (PVB)
387,705
287,453
Net present Value Costs (PVC)
204,341
179862
183,364
107,591
1.9
1.6
2018 to 2047
2018 to 2047
Consumer User Benefits
Business User Benefits
Private Sector Provider Impacts
Other Business Impacts
Accident Benefits
Overall Impact
Net present Value (NPV)
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR)
Appraisal Period
7.5.4
Appraisal Period
We have conducted a sensitivity test on the base case using an appraisal period of
20 years rather than 30 years. The summary appraisal results for are presented in
Table 7-6 below.
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Table 7-6 Base Case – 20 Year Appraisal Period
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
Base Case – 20 Year Appraisal Period
Consumer User Benefits
Business User Benefits
Private Sector Provider Impacts
Present Value €000s (2002)
292,030
82,209
- 46,196
Other Business Impacts
Accident Benefits
246
Air Emissions Savings
23,395
Net present Value of Benefits (PVB)
351,684
Net present Value Costs (PVC)
199,805
Overall Impact
Net present Value (NPV)
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR)
Appraisal Period
151,879
1.76
2018 to 2037
The project retains value-for-money even adopting a shorter appraisal period of 20
years. In this sensitivity test the BCR in the base case reduces to 1.76:1, and the
NPV to €151.9m.
7.5.6
Landuse Sensitivity Tests
A series of scenarios were tested using the NTA multimodal transport model (2006
Base Year) based on a combination of different employment and population growth
assumptions, and also different assumptions about possible future transport
networks in Dublin.
Two additional demographic sensitivities were tested, along with the Base case
outlined above:
No Growth (2006 landuse);
Future Year (2030) – Higher Growth (NTA’s Strategy Landuse 2030 landuse
forecasts7).
The No Growth scenario uses the 2006 population and employment levels from the
Census as inputs as this is currently the most up-to-date census data available. The
Higher Growth scenario use population and employment forecasts defined in the
7
NTA Strategy Landuse assumes a consolidation of landuse development around heavy
rail/metro corridors.
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NTA’s Strategy Landuse 2030 landuse forecasts. The Moderate Growth scenario is
detailed in Chapter 4 above. Table 7-7 below presents the summary appraisal
results for the No Growth Landuse sensitivity test scenario.
Table 7-7 No Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
2006 Employment and Population Levels Scenario
Consumer User Benefits
Business User Benefits
Private Sector Provider Impacts
Present Value €000s (2002)
239,754
45,867
- 90,865
Other Business Impacts
Accident Benefits
Air Emissions Savings
66
6,241
Net present Value of Benefits (PVB)
201,062
Net present Value Costs (PVC)
212,131
Overall Impact
Net present Value (NPV)
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR)
Appraisal Period
-11,069
0.95
2018 to 2047
In this scenario, the BCR of the scheme is 0.95:1, with a net present value of -11.1m
(2002 prices), indicating a negative value for money case for the scheme under these
conditions. However, it should be noted that this scenario is wholly unrealistic and
entails extremely conservative assumptions regarding population and employment
growth in the Luas Broombridge catchment area. It assumes that the levels of
population and employment that existed in 2006 will not only remain unchanged up to
the opening year of 2017, but will continue at those levels during the 30 year
appraisal period, with no growth in employment and population over a 40 year period.
In addition, a Higher Growth Scenario was tested (NTA Strategy Landuse). This
scenario represents a more optimistic view of population and employment growth in
the Greater Dublin Area up to 2030, and also assumes a consolidation of land-use
and development around heavy rail/metro corridors in the future. This scenario is
detailed in Chapter 4.
As shown in Table 7-8 in this scenario there is an extremely strong economic case
for the scheme, with a BCR of 8.7:1 and a net present value of €1,947m (2002
prices).
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Table 7-8 Higher Growth Landuse Sensitivity Test
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
Employment and Population Levels - NTA Strategy
Landuse
Consumer User Benefits
Present Value €000s (2002)
1,516,611
Business User Benefits
604,548
Private Sector Provider Impacts
-30,986
Other Business Impacts
Accident Benefits
1,140
Air Emissions Savings
108,616
Net present Value of Benefits (PVB)
2,199,930
Net present Value Costs (PVC)
252,419
Overall Impact
Net present Value (NPV)
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR)
Appraisal Period
7.5.7
1,947,511
8.72
2018 to 2047
Infrastructure Sensitivity Test 1
An Infrastructure Sensitivity test was also conducted to examine the economic
performance of Luas Broombridge assuming a number of other public transport
schemes were already in place prior to Luas Broombridge being implemented. In this
scenario, the Do Minimum includes current infrastructure as well as Metro North and
DART Underground. Table 7-9 below outlines the summary appraisal results from
this scenario.
As shown in Table 7-9, the economic case for the scheme remains very strong in this
scenario also, with a BCR of 2.2:1 and a net present value of €246m (2002 prices).
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Table 7-9 Infrastructure Sensitivity Test
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
Infrastructure Sensitivity Test
Present Value €000s (2002)
Consumer User Benefits
391,918
Business User Benefits
148,271
Private Sector Provider Impacts
- 13,302
Other Business Impacts
Accident Benefits
142
Air Emissions Savings
13,460
Net present Value of Benefits (PVB)
540,489
Net present Value Costs (PVC)
245,672
Overall Impact
Net present Value (NPV)
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR)
Appraisal Period
7.5.8
294,817
2.2
2018 to 2047
Economy and Jobs
RPA has conducted an analysis of the employment generation of Light Rail in Dublin
based on the examination of the employment generated by the construction of both
the original Luas Lines and subsequent extensions.
Luas Broombridge will generate much needed employment during the construction
phase with the expectation that approximately 800 jobs per annum over the 4 year
construction timeframe will be created. This will provide an immediate stimulus to the
badly hit construction sector. Other sectors of the regional economy are likely to
benefit such as those in the construction material supply industry (concrete;
aggregate production; paving materials and reinforcement fabrication), plant hire, and
those providing technical support services (Engineers; Architects; Quantity
Surveyors). There will also be secondary spin off impacts due to the expenditure of
wages in the local economy by the construction workforce.
Additionally there will be 60 permanent jobs created in the operation of the extended
Luas system.
Over the longer term, Luas Broombridge will support economic recovery through
enhancing the competitiveness and the functioning of Dublin city, which is the engine
of economic growth in Ireland. Recent economic growth literature place high
emphasis on the importance of cities as generators of economic growth, and forecast
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for this trend to continue. Luas Broombridge is designed to be an integral part of the
future development of Dublin – it provides an integrated, high quality, modern public
transport system, of the like that is increasingly expected by visitors and business
people in European capitals.
7.6
Project Appraisal Balance Sheet
The Common Appraisal Framework (CAF) requires that a Project Appraisal Balance
Sheet (PABS) be drawn up summarising the principle results of the project appraisal.
The PABS reports the scoring of the project against the five criteria of Economy,
Safety, Environment, Accessibility and Social Inclusion and Integration. A seven point
scaling system is used. Table 7-10 reports the Project Appraisal Balance Sheet for
Luas Broombridge.
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Table 7-10 Luas Broombridge Project Appraisal Budget Sheet (PABS)
Criteria
Luas Broombridge
Qualitative Statement
Quantitative Statement
Transport efficiency and
effectiveness
Improves public transport generalised journey times through reduced
need for interchange and quicker and more reliable journeys
BCR: 2.24:1
Other economic impacts
Significant urban realm improvements; wider economic benefits likely to
be generated through increased accessibility of city centre
Scaling Statement
Economy
NPV: €296m PV
Highly positive
Safety
Slight reduction in road traffic accidents as a result of mode switching
Reduction
in
€358,000 PV
accidents:
Slight positive
Air quality
Increased energy consumption by trams; reduced car emissions from
modal shift.
Reduction in air emissions:
€34m PV
Slight positive
Noise and vibration
Reduction in highway trips
During the peak period,
approximately 400,000 fewer
trips by car will be made per
year after the introduction of
Luas Broombridge.
Slight positive
Landscape & visual quality
Insertion of infrastructure will generally be positive with scheme seen as
integral part of the city centre’s transport system.
N/A
Slight positive
Environment
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2
Biodiversity
Loss of a small area of Royal Canal pNHA dry meadow and grassy verge
and scrub habitat; control of the invasive species Japanese knotweed
(Reynoutria japonica)
Loss of approximately 90m of
pNHA.
Slight negative
Cultural, archaeological and
architectural heritage
There will be direct negative impacts on archaeological and architectural
heritage, in particular on subsurface elements. However, providing
mitigation measures outlined in EIS are implemented the scheme will
enhance the amenity value and strengthen the potential for protecting the
character of the area.
N/A
Slight negative
Land use, soils and geology
Providing mitigation measures outlined in EIS are implemented there will
be no significant impacts on land use, soils and geology.
N/A
Neutral
Water resources
Providing mitigation measures outlined in EIS are implemented there will
be no significant impacts on water resources.
N/A
Neutral
Accessibility & Social Inclusion
Vulnerable groups
The benefits of Luas enjoyed by existing vulnerable groups, and in
particular those without access to a car, will be enhanced through higher
frequencies
Deprived geographic areas
Serves RAPID area as well as deprived Marlborough St. area
Highly positive
Moderately positive
Integration
Transport integration
Creates light rail network; creates interchange opportunities between
Luas and heavy rail at Broombridge and Metro at O’Connell Street.
Highly positive
Land use integration
Fully compatible with RPGs, and Dublin City Development Plan. Fully
Highly positive
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supportive of policy of integrating land-use with transport planning; will
facilitate Grangegorman DIT development
Geographical integration
No impact
Other Govt. policy integration
No impact on enhancing regional income. However, the NSS recognises
the importance of Dublin to the overall Irish economy, and commits to
protecting the international competitiveness of the Dublin region, which
will be facilitated by fast, frequent and high-capacity public transport
networks.
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Neutral
Slight positive
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Conclusions
The results of the economic appraisal demonstrate there is a strong economic case
for the scheme, with a BCR of 2.28:1, and a net present value of €296m in 2002
prices in the Base Case Scenario. The economic benefit (value for money) of the
scheme is substantially greater than the costs. The BCR of 2.28:1 means that the
benefits of the scheme are more than double the costs. This represents very good
value for money for a scheme of this nature.
In order to test the robustness of the results of the economic appraisal the
performance of Luas Broombridge has been examined under further scenarios to
reflect the main risks to the economic performance of the scheme.
A series of sensitivity tests reflecting the economic appraisal parameters suggested in
the current Public Spending Code were conducted. The application of a SPPF of
150% reduces the BCR from 2.28:1 to 1.54:1. This demonstrates further the
robustness of the proposed scheme. Applying a SPPF of 150% in the Base Case
does not remove the value-for-money of the scheme, as it retains a BCR of 1.54:1. In
addition, when a conservative uplift of 20% for WIs above the conventional benefits is
applied to the scenario with an SPPF of 150%, the value-for-money case of the
scheme improves, with the BCR increasing from 1.54:1 to 1.83:1.
The impact of applying higher test discount rates (of 5% and 6%) was tested. The use
of a higher discount rate does not erode the value-for-money of the scheme, with the
application of a 6% discount rate reducing the base case BCR to 1.6:1 from 2.28:1.
A sensitivity test using a shorter appraisal period of 20 years was also conducted. In
this test the scheme remains value-for-money but the base case BCR is reduced from
2.28:1 to 1.76:1.
Landuse sensitivity tests have been carried out based on a low or pessimistic No
Growth scenario and a Higher Growth scenario. The No Growth scenario is
extremely conservative and perhaps unrealistic in nature. In this scenario the BCR is
0.95:1.
Should the population and employment grow in line with the projections set out by the
NTA Scenario the BCR shows an extremely strong BCR of 8.72:1.
The Infrastructure Sensitivity Test which includes both Metro North and DART
Underground in the public transport network displays a strong economic case of 2.2:1.
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8
8.1
Updated Detailed Business Case
PROJECT FINANCE AND CASH FLOWS
Chapter Summary
The total funding requirement from the Exchequer for Luas Broombridge is
estimated to be €368 million in nominal terms over the period 2006 to 2018. In
net present value and cash terms this amounts to 100% of the capital costs of the
project. It is expected that at 31 December 2012 €17.7m of this will have already
been expended;
It is not expected that developer contributions will be available for this project.
There exists the possibility that a Section 49 Development Levy scheme could
raise in the order of €5m to assist in minimising the Exchequer funding
requirement. The current financing proposal does not rely on a S49
Supplementary Development Scheme as a source of funding. Nonetheless the
possibilities will be fully explored;
Projections on operations show that incremental patronage as a result of this
project will generate sufficient revenues to cover incremental operating costs.
Current indications are that this will be the position from the first year of
operations. Therefore it is unlikely that an Exchequer subvention will be required;
and
Projections also show that operating surpluses should be sufficient to cover the
renewal costs of the infrastructure over a 30 year operating timescale. Demand
would be required to fall 46% below forecast over the lifetime of the project to
eliminate the operating surplus and the amount required to fund life cycle asset
renewals.
8.2
Background
The financing structure for Luas Broombridge is based on the availability of capital
funding from the National Transport Agency of 100% of the nominal capital cost
currently estimated at €368 m. It is assumed that the required funding will be available
to match expenditures during the implementation period until financial completion of
all contracts. This period is currently estimated as 2012 to 2018. The financing
structure reflects the traditional nature of the project procurement strategy with a
considerable amount of design being developed by RPA and included in the
employers requirements in the both the enabling works and main infrastructure
contracts. Having considered the constraints of the procurement strategy and the
limited availability of funding from other sources RPA has concluded that funding
through NTA capital grants would best meet the objectives of the Luas Broombridge
project. Given the characteristics of the chosen procurement strategy and the current
state of the financing market the use of PPP finance is not seen as “value adding” or
appropriate and will not be considered further.
This chapter considers the cash-flows and likely cost to Exchequer over a 30 year
operating period starting in 2017.
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Financial Model Assumptions
A number of assumptions have been made in the financial model:
8.3.1
Project Timing
Commencement of construction (enabling works) is projected to occur in 2013 and
Department of Transport approval to proceed with the project based on the Updated
Detailed Business Case (UDBC) would be required for enabling and heritage works to
commence in Q2, 2013. The main infrastructure contract is schedule to commence in
November 2014 and the system is expected to commence revenue service in October
2017.
8.3.2
Inflation
The inflation rates assumed for public transport fares are related to forecast changes
in the consumer price index and take account of issues such as the introduction of
smartcards, more integrated journeys, the trend for increased take-up of period
ticketing products and the effect of extensions to the Luas network over time.
Allowances made for escalation recognise the likely impact of tender price inflation on
capital costs over the construction period. Inflation rates of 0% for 2012, 3% for 2013
through 2016 and 5% for 2017 to 2018 have been assumed. Exceptions to these
rates of escalation were made where appropriate and with the benefit of particular
knowledge.
8.3.3
Discount Rate
For the financial appraisal, nominal cash-flow have been discounted at a nominal rate
of 6.65%. This is the rate currently advised by the Department of Public Expenditure
and Reform for financial evaluation of projects8.
8.3.4
VAT
All VAT is excluded from the model. The model reflects the VAT status of RPA, which
treats the Agency as a chargeable body for VAT purposes. This status allows RPA to
recover all VAT associated with the project expenditure as the Agency is engaged in
the supply of infrastructure to Veolia which is an activity for which VAT must be
charged.
8.3.5
Capital Costs
The capital costs used in the financial model are set out in Table 8-1 and reflect the
capital costs discussed in Chapter 5 Capital Costing.
8
http://per.gov.ie/project-discount-inflation-rates/
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Table 8-1 Total capital cost (€ million, nominal amounts)
20062012
€m
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Total
€m
€m
€m
€m
€m
€m
€m
Capital costs –
Q3 2012 prices
17.7
20.9
38.7
75.6
89.1
75
19.2
336.2
Capital costs –
nominal
amounts in year
9
of expenditure
17.7
21.3
40.6
82.0
99.4
85.7
21.3
368.0
Discounted
to
10
2012 @ 6.65%
17.7
20.0
35.8
67.9
77.3
62.6
14.6
295.8
8.3.6
National Transport Authority (NTA) grants
It has been assumed that sufficient grants will be available from the National
Transport authority (NTA) to fund the capital costs as they are discharged by RPA.
The level of exchequer funding required is estimated at €368.0m, VAT excluded.
During the project grant funding will be sought from NTA to discharge VAT inclusive
liabilities. It will be necessary to retain working capital to fund these VAT amounts until
they are recovered from the Revenue Commissioners.
8.3.7
Section 49 Development Levies
There exists the possibility that the grant funding required could be reduced over time
by an amount conservatively estimated at €5.0m were a Section 49 Development
Levy scheme to be introduced by Dublin City Council and sufficient development took
place within the catchment area of the levy scheme. Due to the nature of current
development adjacent to the alignment, it being predominantly brown-field, there is
limited scope for significant planning gain within the catchment of the Broombridge
route. This consequently limits the scope for Section 49 levies or developer
contributions. RPA intends pursuing the introduction of a supplementary development
scheme with NTA and the Local Authorities.
The forecast levy yield assumes that planning permissions can be levied in respect of
a number of contribution schemes. Approximately 80% of the possible levy scheme
area has overlap with other proposed projects. This may have an impact if it is
deemed inequitable to impose more than one supplementary contribution scheme
levy on the same development.
9
Inflation of 0% for Q4, 2012 rising to 5% in 2018 has been applied in reaching the escalated
capital cost of €368.0m
10
The estimated capital cost of the project is €336.2 million in Quarter 3 2012 prices. On
average the discount rate used exceeds the inflation rate which is why the discounted capital
cost of €295.8 million is less than the project cost of €336.23m in 2012 prices.
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8.3.8
Direct Contributions from Developers
It is not anticipated that there will be significant opportunities for direct contributions
from developers for this project.
8.3.9
Transfer of land interests
Negotiations are being held with CIÉ and the Department of Transport for the transfer
of lands (from Broadstone north to Broombridge) at nil consideration. NTA has
indicated that arrangements can be put in place to protect the project’s funding
requirements from any unexpected compensation payments made associated with
any property purchased from CIE.
8.4
Funding of Capital Expenditure
The nominal cash-flows are shown in Table 8-2. The total nominal cost of the project
is estimated at €368.0 million. Exchequer funding of €368.0 million is required over
the period 2012 to 2018. The discounted cash flows are shown in Table 8-3.
Table 8-2 Sources and Uses of Funds – Projected Cash-flows - Year of Expenditure
Nominal
Cashflows € millions
2006
-2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Total
17.7
21.3
40.6
82.0
99.4
85.7
21.3
368.0
17.7
21.3
40.6
82.0
99.4
85.7
21.3
368.0
17.7
21.3
40.6
82.0
99.4
85.7
21.3
368.0
17.7
21.3
40.6
82.0
99.4
85.7
21.3
368.0
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Capital Cost
TOTAL
NTA
Capital
Grants
(nonrepayable)
TOTAL
NTA
Capital
Grants %
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Table 8-3 Sources and Uses of Funds – Discounted Cash-flows € million
2006
-2012
Cash-flows
discounted @
6.65%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Total
Capital Cost
17.7
20.0
35.8
67.9
77.3
62.6
14.6
295.8
Less; NTA Capital
Grants (nonrepayable)
17.7
20.0
35.8
67.9
77.3
62.6
14.6
295.8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Net Funds flow
NTA
Capital
Grants %
8.5
8.5.1
Operating Cash-flows
Operating, maintenance and Life cycle asset renewal costs
Operating and maintenance costs (including life cycle asset renewals) are important
components of the overall cost and financing requirement of the project. The life cycle
and renewal costs that fall within the 30 year operating period commencing in 2018
have been included in the financial model. The costs set out in Table 8-4 below are
exclusive of VAT and represent the estimated amounts that will be paid in the year in
which those costs occur.
Table 8-4 Operating, maintenance and life cycle asset renewal costs (€ millions, Nominal)
Years
1 to 5
Years
6 to 10
Years
11 to
15
€m
Years
16 to
20
€m
Years
21 to
25
€m
Years
26 to
30
€m
TOTAL
€m
€m
Operating and
maintenance
cost
42
46
51
56
62
69
326
Life cycle asset
renewals
3
6
15
11
24
18
77
8.5.2
€m
Fare and advertising revenue
Demand forecasts for Luas Broombridge are based on the base case output from
NTA’s multimodal Transport Model. Forecast revenue from passenger fares is
assumed to be equal to forecast demand multiplied by the average yield. Average
yield per boarding has been estimated using the actual average yield per boarding on
Luas in 2012 of €1.58. This yield has been forecast to increase at 2% compound per
annum to incorporate the combined impact of changes in fares, preferences for ticket
products, average length of journeys etc. Table 8-5 sets out the passenger fare and
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advertising revenues forecast for a 30 year period commencing in 2018. The
revenues are stated exclusive of VAT and are in nominal amounts.
Table 8-5 Projected revenue from fares and advertising (€ millions, Nominal)
Years
1 to 5
Years
6 to 10
Years
11 to
15
Years
16 to
20
Years
21 to
25
Years
26 to
30
TOTAL
€m
€m
€m
€m
€m
€m
€m
Fare revenue
76
99
118
131
145
159
728
Advertising revenue
1
1
1
2
2
2
9
Table 8-6 sets out the net present value of the Luas Broombridge operating cashflows over a 30 year operating period. A discount rate of 6.65% has been used.
Table 8-6 Operating cash-flows (Present values, discounted to 2012)
Cash-flow
€ millions
Total operating revenue including advertising
205
Total operating costs
-95
Total operating surplus
110
Less; Life cycle asset renewals costs
-17
Operating surplus after funding life cycle asset renewal costs
93
Table 8-6 demonstrates that Luas Broombridge has an operating surplus in present
value terms of €110m. The forecast operating surpluses over a 30 year timescale
would fund the forecast life cycle asset renewal costs over the same period leaving a
net surplus of €93m.
8.6
Risks and Sensitivity Analysis
Chapter 6 Risk sets out the key risks facing the project. Projected revenue, and in turn
the forecasts for an operating surplus (or deficit) depends on the accuracy of RPA’s
demand forecasting, and although this has been proven robust on the Luas Green
and Red Lines there remains a degree of risk in this area. In order to examine this
sensitivity RPA modelled the impact of reductions in overall patronage over the life of
the project, highlighting the reduction required to reduce the operating surplus to nil.
The results are set out in Table 8-7 and all numbers are discounted using a 6.65%
discount rate. It was assumed that operating and lifecycle costs remain unchanged.
It would require a 46% reduction in the forecast patronage before the net operating
surplus after renewals costs would be reduced to nil.
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Table 8-7 Sensitivity of operating cash-flows (after deducting life cycle asset renewal costs) to
reduction in patronage revenues (all figures stated in present value, discounted to 2012 using a
4% discount rate)
Cash-flow - € millions
Total
revenue
operating
Total operating costs
Life
cycle
renewals costs
asset
Net
operating
surplus/deficit (after life
cycle
asset
renewal
costs)
€m
10%
Reduction
(Patronage)
€m
20%
Reduction
(Patronage)
€m
46%
Reduction
(Patronage
€m
205
185
165
112
-95
-95
-95
-95
-17
-17
-17
-17
93
73
53
0
Base Case
The sensitivity shows that the net operating surplus (after charging life cycle asset
renewals) in the base case reduces to €73m over the life of the project if patronage
falls 10% below forecast. A reduction in the order of 20% reduces the net operating
surplus to €53m and a reduction of 46% brings the net operating surplus to nil. If the
last scenario were to occur there would be cash shortfalls in some years which might
require short term funding arrangements to be put in place. However even if the worst
of these sensitivities were experienced it is unlikely that Exchequer funding in the form
of an operating subvention would be required. Some funding of the life cycle asset
renewals cost might be required on a temporary basis.
8.7
Conclusions
The results of the financial modelling of project cash-flows and available funding for
Luas Broombridge indicate a total capital cost of €368 million (nominal) with 100% of
this being funded by the Exchequer through the National Transport Agency. The
projects costs remain within the available expenditure ceilings and timing constraints
for funding at all times during implementation. On that basis the project can be
considered as being “affordable”.
There is a possibility that a Section 49 Development Levy scheme, if introduced by
Dublin City Council, could generate in the order of €5m which could be used to assist
the funding of the scheme or the repayment of NTA advances of Exchequer funds.
The results also show that Luas Broombridge has an operating surplus in present
value terms of €110m when measured over a 30 year time frame. After the deduction
of costs of life cycle asset renewals this surplus is reduced to €93m. Based on these
forecasts and their sensitivity to reductions in patronage revenues it is extremely
unlikely that Exchequer funding in the form of an operating subvention would be
required during the expected useful operating life of the project.
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9
PROCUREMENT STRATEGY
9.1
Chapter Summary
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The procurement strategy for Luas Broombridge must accommodate the project
constraints and stakeholder requirements; build on lessons learned during the
construction of the Luas Red and Green Lines and extensions to date; and
facilitate the achievement of RPA’s objectives.
The procurement strategy must accommodate sufficient flexibility to ensure that
the design and construction of the systems for future Luas projects can be
achieved without undue constraints on those projects.
RPA has carried out a PPP Procurement Assessment in accordance with the
Capital Appraisal Guidelines and this project was deemed unsuitable for
procurement as a PPP.
The option that best suits RPA’s requirements is initial client design for heritage,
basement modifications and utility diversion works (with target cost for utilities)
followed by a design build package for the main infrastructure works. Rolling
stock can be procured through exercising an option under the procurement
initiated in 2005 for the supply of light rail vehicles for the developing Luas
system.
9.2
Introduction
RPA considered a range of procurement approaches available for the implementation
of the Luas Broombridge project.
The approach adopted to determine the best procurement strategy was as follows:
The constraints, stakeholder requirements and lessons learned from the
previous Luas projects were considered, in particular the more recent Luas
extensions to Cherrywood, to Docklands and to City West;
Objectives were set for the procurement process;
A range of different options for the procurement process was developed; and
The advantages and disadvantages of each option in terms of the objectives
were evaluated, drawing on internal and international experience where
applicable.
9.3
PPP Assessment
In accordance with the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform’s (DPER)
guidance on Public Private Partnerships (PPP), “Assessment of Projects for
Procurement as Public Private Partnership”, RPA has carried out an assessment of
the suitability of the Luas Broombridge project for a PPP form of procurement. This
assessment concluded that Luas Broombridge was not a suitable project for PPP, on
a number of grounds.
Luas Broombridge is an addition to an existing system that is currently being operated
and maintained by a separate party. It would be impossible to have a separate
operator operating on Luas Broombridge to that operating on the rest of the Luas
network as services run continuously through on an end to end basis. It is also
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impossible to have a separate rolling stock maintenance arrangements for Luas
Broombridge as again, trams are not dedicated to sections but operate over the entire
network. While in theory it would be possible to have a separate maintenance
arrangement for the Luas Broombridge infrastructure, this would offer the state
extremely poor value for money as many of the fixed costs (management, equipment,
depot facilities etc.) would be duplicated. This would result in the maintenance cost
for Luas Broombridge being disproportionately high when compared to the rest of the
network. For these reasons, there would be no significant service or operational
requirements for a PPP contractor.
Luas Broombridge cannot be a separate system for revenue generation purposes.
There is thus no potential for the Luas Broombridge project to generate income for a
PPP Company.
There is a significant difficulty in transferring construction risk to the contractor given
the significant interfaces with the city streets and with other stakeholders including the
roads authority, statutory undertakers and city centre traders. As the overall Luas
system is operated and maintained by other parties, there is no scope for transfer of
operational or availability risk.
For these reasons, Luas Broombridge was not a suitable project for PPP.
9.4
Project constraints, stakeholder requirements and lessons learned
9.4.1
Project constraints and stakeholder requirements
A number of constraints face the project, some of which are more relevant than others
to the procurement strategy:
9.4.1.1 Traffic Management Requirements
A coherent and well managed traffic management plan is vital to the minimisation of
disruption during the construction phase and to the overall success of the project. The
Luas Broombridge procurement strategy must be sufficiently flexible to ensure that
changes in the scope of the enabling works and/or in the timing of adjacent
developments and/or other transport plans and transport operator constraints can be
accommodated without undue impact on traffic flows in city centre areas.
Luas Broombridge is traversing a largely built up environment with congested traffic
challenges which leave little scope for deviation. Pedestrian and vehicular access to
premises must be maintained such that the economic well-being of the city centre is
ensured throughout the works phase. DCC’s Directions for Roadworks Control require
that RPA rather than their contractors make all applications for traffic management
permits. In order to ensure that RPA can perform this function without delaying site
operations, the procurement strategy for the scheme must consider the fact that RPA
will need to remain closely engaged with the sequencing and programming of the
contractor’s works throughout the construction stage.
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9.4.1.2 Utility Designs & Diversion Works
A further constraint facing the project is in respect of the extent and the complexity of
utility diversions and the external interfaces with local authorities and utility providers,
during both design and construction stages. The strategy must consider the
appropriate allocation of the risks involved in managing these interfaces especially in
relation to finalising detailed designs, programming of works, sequencing of works
and controlling costs.
9.4.1.3 Interface with 3rd Parties and External Stakeholders
As with any project of this nature and scale there are a number of external interfaces
that may impact on project delivery. Responsibility for managing the day-to-day
requirements of Dublin City Council (DCC), existing businesses and local residents
will need to be considered when finalising the procurement strategy. This is
particularly the case when it comes to responding to changing demands and
requirements of these third parties at design, construction and hand-over stages.
Management of interfaces with other key stakeholders such as CIE and their
constituent companies will also be a crucial requirement for a successful delivery of
the Luas Broombridge project. This is especially relevant in the Broadstone area
where the bus activities at the Bus Éireann depot and also the Phibsborough Bus
garage of Dublin Bus will require careful consideration during the planning and
execution of the works.
9.4.1.4 RPA Internal Resources
The procurement strategy must be cognisant of the demands that may be placed on
RPA internal resources
9.4.1.5 Impacts on Businesses
There have been strong representations from business groups in the city centre
focussing on the necessity to complete the project works in the shortest possible
timeframe and with the minimum of disruption. The procurement strategy will need to
consider how best to accommodate these requirements.
9.4.2
Luas Lessons Learned
There are a number of key lessons arising from the construction of previous Luas
projects:
The statutory processes were managed well and should continue to be
managed by RPA;
The RPA relationship and the working arrangements built up with the utility
companies through the Joint Utilities Group (JUG) worked well, and this
approach should be maintained in so far as is practicable;
The procurement of the works in several work packages has allowed RPA
sufficient flexibility to develop designs for later packages while enabling works
are proceeding on site;
Design changes will inevitably arise throughout the course of the works and
this can lead to delays and disruption to works on site. Due to the number and
complexity of external interfaces on the recent Luas Docklands project it was
decided that RPA would retain responsibility for managing these design
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interfaces. In doing so RPA was able to reduce disruption to businesses,
achieve greater programme certainty and minimise ‘legacy’ issues with third
parties, including Dublin City Council (DCC). It is noted that this approach
came with a significant premium associated with the contract management
and design resources necessary to fulfil this task, and led to the submission of
a large number of design-related claims by the contractor; and
Standards of finish may have varied across previous projects. Where RPA has
retained closer control over detailed design this has resulted in a higher quality
finish. The Luas Broombridge procurement strategy must ensure the same
high level of quality control is maintained. This is especially relevant in the
core city centre where protected structures and architectural heritage features
are to the fore.
These lessons together with the constraints outlined above inform the options
analysis.
9.5
Objectives
The objectives for the procurement process are to achieve:
High quality of finished product;
Value for money;
Timely and efficient completion of works;
Flexibility;
Process risk minimisation;
Technical compatibility with the Luas network; and
Systems integration with other future Luas projects
9.5.1
Quality
The procurement strategy needs to allow RPA to have a significant degree of control
over the quality of the works to be carried out. Luas schemes have developed a
reputation for high standards of build quality and it should be the aim of the
procurement strategy to maintain those standards.
This scheme passes through a sensitive, historic and dynamic city centre environment
and the designs developed for the works need to take account of these factors. Also,
for a large part, the environment within which the scheme is to be built is in the charge
of the local authority, DCC. Therefore, almost all of the design works will, at the very
least, require some input from DCC, and in certain cases will require their explicit
approval prior to construction.
It is accepted that in order to achieve a high quality of finish, numerous minor design
changes will be necessary throughout the implementation period and that these
changes may need the agreement of external parties, e.g. DCC and property owners.
The procurement strategy must strike a balance between facilitating design changes
which may be required to maintain RPA’s high standards of quality without exposing
RPA to an unacceptable level of commercial claims from contractors.
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Value for Money
The procurement strategy also needs to ensure that RPA achieves value for money
and Luas Broombridge is developed and built for the best price. In this regard, the
following factors need to be considered in developing the strategy:
Use of lessons learned from previous RPA projects;
Use of lessons learned from other international light rail projects;
Private sector innovation;
Competitive tension;
Good project management and planning;
Whole life approach to design; and
Optimum risk balance and transfer.
Most of these factors are about reducing the costs of the project, or improving its
quality. Costs should be lower if the process is cognisant of the lessons learned from
the previous Luas projects.
Given the size of the Luas Broombridge project, the extent of technical constraints
due to the built-up, historic nature of the environment, the quantum of existing utilities
and the requirement to integrate with the existing system, it is considered that the
opportunity for private sector innovation is minimal. Whereas alternatives may exist to
the design of structural or electrical elements within the light rail infrastructure, their
whole-life costs could be higher when maintenance and durability are taken into
account.
Experience also shows that maintaining competitive tension between bidders until
close to contract award will reduce costs. In particular, processes which involve
protracted negotiations with a single preferred bidder are likely to result in higher
costs or a worsened risk allocation. Good management and planning of the project
are also vitally important to adding value.
Ensuring reasonable costs to the public sector over the life of the project is also an
integral part of obtaining value for money. In this respect the public sector should be
looking for the optimal allocation of risks and, where appropriate, should use the
competitive tendering process to transfer as much of the design and construction risk
as possible to the private sector, thereby reducing RPA’s commercial exposure.
The GCCC suite of public works contracts will be utilised in the various works contract
packages as appropriate to ensure optimum allocation of risk and that value for
money is obtained. Additionally a target cost form of contract will be adopted for the
utility diversions contract given the high degree of risk associated with underground
utilities.
9.5.3
Works Programme
It is important that the procurement strategy takes account of the requirement to
construct the scheme with as little disruption as practicable to local businesses and
residents along the alignment.
In developing the procurement strategy RPA needs to consider what level of control it
requires over its contractors’ programming and sequencing of the works and whether
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including incentives for completion of the scheme, or parts of the scheme, are
appropriate.
9.5.4 Flexibility to accommodate technical requirements, future connections &
regulatory change
Luas Broombridge is just one phase in the creation of a light rail network for Dublin.
Future phases, which will impact on Luas Broombridge, include possible extensions to
Lucan (Line F) and northwest from Broombridge via Finglas to join up with Metro
West. These links are unlikely to be developed in the short to medium term and are
not included in the Government’s current transport plans, but the selected
procurement strategy must allow for any future extension to be procured using a
competitive process, and with minimum interference and cost to the existing
operations / infrastructure.
The contracts to deliver Luas Broombridge must be sufficiently flexible to
accommodate any potential future regulatory changes at minimum cost.
Experience of building the original Luas Lines and extensions has demonstrated the
significant time, cost and quality risks associated with the agreement of detailed
designs with external stakeholders. The procurement strategy must allow for the
possibility of significant numbers of design issues arising during construction.
Similarly, the ability for the project and its management to agree numerous specific
technical solutions with DCC and other third parties must be considered as a
requirement, particularly in the city centre section of the project.
9.5.5
Process risk minimisation
Process risk relates to the risks around stakeholder and market buy-in and the
procurement process itself. There is a risk that the procurement process will fail or be
delayed if, for instance, a losing bidder should challenge the procurement outcome as
being unfair. Minimising or at least containing that process risk may be achieved by
using procurement processes and forms of construction contract which are familiar to
the market.
Given the current climate within the construction industry market, appetite would exist
for most forms of procurement approach.
These factors should be included in assessing the suitability of any procurement
strategy.
9.6
Procurement Options
The procurement options available for Luas Broombridge are varied. Before shortlisting options for consideration, a number of assumptions have been made.
9.6.1
Assumptions
9.6.1.1 Railway Order and Land Acquisition
In common with all RPA projects to date the responsibility for securing the Railway
Order and acquiring property rests with RPA.
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9.6.1.2 Operations and Maintenance
The existing Luas operating contract will expire in 2014. A new competition for a
system wide operator will include Luas Broombridge. Having two operators on the
Luas network would result in significant technical difficulties and inefficiencies.
The existing Luas Infrastructure Maintenance Contract (IMC) and Vehicle
Maintenance Contract (VMC) will also be renewed to include Luas Broombridge.
While it may be possible to have a new maintenance contract for Luas Broombridge,
as demonstrated successfully by Docklands Light Rail, to comply with procurement
legislation and to realise economies of scale, it is more likely that competitions for
operators and maintainers will be run for the entire network rather than in parts.
9.6.1.3 Rolling Stock
A call for Competition Notice was placed in the Official Journal of the European Union
(OJEU) in December 2005 stating that RPA required “up to 50 light rail vehicles”.
Following a pre-qualification process and issuance of documentation to potential
suppliers, the successful contractor was awarded a contract in March 2007 for the
supply of 18 trams (to satisfy the trams demand of the projects B1, CE2 and C1). An
additional 8 trams were added to the contract for the Luas extension to Citywest.
Thus, to-date orders have been placed for a total 26 trams.
RPA has reviewed the terms of this contract in order to specifically assess the legal
position regarding procurement of trams for Luas Broombridge. It has been
established that the current contract with Alstom permits RPA to enter negotiations on
the supply of trams for Luas Broombridge without having to re-advertise or re-tender.
It is noted that exercising this option and entering into negotiations with a single
supplier has the potential to expose RPA to considerable commercial risk in the
absence of competitive tension. Thus it is intended that where practicable the project
programme allow sufficient time for this package to go out to open tender should
these negotiations fail to attain predetermined value-for-money criteria.
9.6.1.4 Systems Integration
In 2007 the B1_400 contract was awarded for the design, construction and
commissioning of the infrastructure, power supply and control systems for Luas Line
B1 (Cherrywood). As an option under this contract, RPA secured the right to award
the systems elements for approximately 30 km of additional light rail lines to the
B1_400 Systems contractor, Efacec. This included a priced option for BXD which was
disaggregated in the pricing document at that time into Line BX and Line D. The right
to exercise this option will expire in 2017.
Similar to RPA’s position with the procurement of rolling stock, it is noted that
exercising this option and negotiating a price for the systems works with a single
contractor has the potential to expose RPA to considerable commercial risk.
Accordingly it is envisaged that the project programme will allow sufficient time for this
package to go out to open tender should these negotiations fail to attain
predetermined value-for-money criteria.
What must be considered in any
procurement for the systems work is the desirability for a common system control for
the entire Luas network.
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Procurement Options
Since the submission of the Outline Business Case for the scheme RPA has
continued to consider the most appropriate procurement options for Luas
Broombridge. Through work-shops and meetings RPA has examined further
procurement options - Table 9-1 lists the options which were considered viable
drawing on experience from other projects, particularly the Cherrywood and
Docklands extensions.
Table 9-9-1 Shortlisted procurement options (excluding rolling stock)
Option
Brief Description
A
Turnkey Design and Build contract let to a single consortium including all
enabling works, infrastructure and rolling stock.
B
Initial Client Design contract for enabling works including heritage works,
basement modifications and utility diversions;
Design and Build contract(s) for light rail infrastructure works (including key
structures) and E&M systems.
C
Client Design contract(s) for basements, utility diversions and light rail
infrastructure works (including key structures);
Design and Build contract(s) for E&M, signalling, and systems integration.
D
Early Contractor involvement for enabling and light rail infrastructure works,
using previous Luas projects to benchmark the cost plan. Design and Build
contract(s) for E&M, signalling, and systems integration.
9.7
Evaluation of procurement options
9.7.1
Option A
Turnkey Design and Build contract let to a single consortium including all enabling
works, infrastructure and rolling stock.
Option A is arguably the least attractive of all the options. Appetite within the utility
companies and the local authority to engage with a contractor in the planning and
design of utility diversions and infrastructure designs will remain low impacting on
project timing. It is also likely the private sector will view this as a high risk and cost it
accordingly. Option A also takes away control over the design process from RPA and
transfers all responsibility for managing design interfaces to the private sector
irrespective of the consequences. Given the complex nature of the utilities and the
sensitive, historic nature of the existing streetscape, this would be unacceptable.
Option A effectively transfers all responsibility to the contractor while failing to provide
sufficient protection to RPA in relation to time / cost overrun and quality of finish. In
contrast to other options, it fails to adequately meet most of the objectives.
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Option B
Initial Client Design contract(s) for enabling works including heritage works, basement
modifications and utility diversions; Design and Build contract(s) for light rail
infrastructure works (including key structures) and E&M systems.
Option B appears to provide a good balance of risk apportionment between RPA and
the private sector. Risk transfer is lower than for Option A but the model recognises
some of the key constraints facing the project. By retaining the advance contract
packages and in particular the utility diversion works, within RPA’s design control a
number of key interface risks are mitigated. Option B also provides RPA with the
opportunity to improve a tried and tested model and benefit from the lessons learned
on previous Luas projects. A similar model has been tried before albeit in a suburban
environment (Luas Line B1 to Cherrywood) and RPA would have a range of skills
currently available in-house to manage the project using this option.
Market appetite for this procurement model is proven and, as such, it meets the
objective of minimising process risk.
Option B offers good flexibility, especially at the enabling works stage. In respect of
the light rail infrastructure works the procurement of a design / build contractor to
manage external interfaces would seek to transfer the risks of dealing with third party
issues that might arise during detailed design or construction stage to the contractor,
and this in theory would reduce RPA’s commercial exposure to design-related claims
from the contractor. However, these commercial risks need to be balanced against
the programme and quality risks of transferring full responsibility for managing all third
party relationships and developing final designs for the scheme to a contractor,
especially given the complexity and sensitivity of the environment within which Luas
Broombridge is to be built.
In a city-centre environment it has been RPA’s experience that numerous specific
design solutions will need to be agreed with DCC and adjacent property owners that
do not conform with, or are not covered by, standard technical specifications. Were
this to arise under a design/build contract, it is highly probable that delays will occur in
the agreement of design solutions which are acceptable to both the contractor and the
third party, leading to increased pressure on the project programme. Option B
provides RPA with a greater degree of flexibility in respect of programming the works
and achieving a high-quality finished product than Option A.
Options B, C & D separate the enabling works packages from the main infrastructure
works. Option B could allow for earlier procurement of the infrastructure contract as
there is less design work for RPA prior to going to tender. However this must be
balanced against the need to provide a greater degree of specification in a reference
design for the city centre than might otherwise be the case in a suburban
environment. Further programme savings could materialise were the contractor to
prepare detailed designs in line with their construction programme, thereby allowing
the works to commence in advance of the completion of the full ‘for construction’
design.
With Option B, the risks associated with the quality of the D&B systems design and
systems integration could be mitigated by appointing the systems contractor (Efacec)
used for Luas Lines A1, B1 & C1. This would be possible by exercising the option
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available under the B1_400C contract but, while Efacec has a proven track record in
delivering high quality systems designs and installations for RPA, it is important to
note that (a) this option expires in August 2017 and, (b) there would be commercial
risks associated with requesting a price for the works from only one contractor. For
Options B, C & D, RPA would need to ensure that there is a level of competitive
tension introduced into the procurement of the systems contractor. One method of
achieving this would be to set value for money parameters for the negotiations with
Efacec and, where practicable, allow sufficient time within the project programme to
go out to tender for the works.
On balance Option B does offer RPA the opportunity to transfer significant design
risks to the contractor while maintaining some flexibility to closely manage the project.
The constraints relating to utility design and construction could be managed
successfully using this model. Also, by utilising the E&M contractors who successfully
designed and installed the systems on Luas Lines B1 and C1 for this project RPA,
would minimise any commissioning risks associated with this element of the works,
especially systems integration.
Under this option RPA would seek to transfer the external design interface risks
associated with the light rail infrastructure package to a design/build contractor. While
this is an attractive approach to achieving the procurement objective of optimising risk
balance and transfer, it has been RPA’s experience on previous Luas projects that
transferring full responsibility for managing third party interfaces to the contractor and
resolving design on-site issues with DCC can lead to a reduction in RPA’s control
over programming and sequencing of the works, as well as issues with the quality of
the finished product. However, if RPA can minimise these external design risks prior
to contract award, the likelihood of design-related issues causing delays on site could
be reduced while still achieving the desired risk transfer.
In conclusion, Option B performs better than Option A in relation to programme /
design flexibility and quality of finish and, if the risks associated with external design
interfaces are managed, this option would also provide RPA with a better risk profile
than Options C & D under these criteria.
9.7.3
Option C
Client Design contract(s) for basements, utility diversions and light rail infrastructure
works (including key structures); Design and Build contract(s) for E&M, signalling, and
systems integration.
Option C is similar to Option B with the only difference being that the light rail
infrastructure works would be client-designed rather than contractor-designed. The
following deals with that particular aspect of this option.
This option involves low risk transfer which would increase RPA’s commercial
exposure in respect of dealing with design issues during the construction stage.
However, as mentioned above in the Option B evaluation, transferring full
responsibility for managing all third party relationships and developing final designs
for the scheme to a contractor removes RPA’s influence on programming and
sequencing of the works and reduces RPA’s input into decisions on quality issues.
RPA will inevitably need to be involved in detailed design issues – this assessment is
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based on RPA’s previous experience with city centre Luas works – and Option C is
the best option for accommodating these requirements.
Under Option C the key structures at Broadstone and over the Phoenix Park Tunnel
(PPT) railway line would also be client-designed. The main issue to consider with the
bridge over the PPT railway line is gaining the consent of the Railway Safety
Commission (RSC) for the construction of the structure. Iarnród Éireann is
responsible for liaising with the RSC to arrange for the granting of this consent, and
these consents can have conditions attached. As a client design contract, RPA would
be able to incorporate any RSC conditions into the final designs and/or contract
conditions, but it would also mean that RPA could not transfer certain risks to the
contractor, such as unforeseen ground conditions.
At Broadstone the main issue is the interface with CIE and its subsidiary companies
Bus Éireann and Dublin Bus. Access to the bus garages needs to be maintained
throughout all phases of the works. As for the PPT structure under a client design
contract, RPA would be able to incorporate any CIE bus company conditions into the
final designs and/or contract conditions, but it would also mean that RPA could not
transfer certain risks to the contractor, such as unforeseen ground conditions.
This option provides a lesser degree of scope for innovation in the design than all of
the other options. However, given that (a) one of the procurement objectives for Luas
Broombridge is that its designs must integrate with existing Luas Infrastructure and
other future Luas projects, and (b) the built-up city centre environment within which
Luas Broombridge is to be constructed, the scope for innovation is minimal.
Early commencement of some enabling works may facilitate speedier delivery and
there is likely to be a strong indigenous market for a traditional contracting approach.
Therefore Option C performs well against this criterion.
Option C would require a greater level of internal resources than Option B across a
range of disciplines within RPA throughout the design and construction phases of the
project. This could be effectively managed through a mix of existing internal
resources as well as engaging external project management support services to
assist in this process as demands dictate.
Option C provides RPA with the flexibility to manage this high-profile project.
However, it is the also option with the lowest risk transfer.
9.7.4
Option D
Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) for enabling works and light rail infrastructure
works using previous Luas projects to benchmark the cost plan. Design and Build
contract(s) for E&M, signalling, and systems integration.
Option D would be a radical departure from any procurement model previously used
by RPA. Hence, Option D scores poorly in terms of minimising process risk.
A benchmark now exists from Luas Red and Green Lines for agreeing a target cost or
guaranteed maximum price with a preferred contractor. Under this model contractor
innovation will theoretically be high as the reimbursement mechanism under the
contract encourages up front idea sharing, opportunities also exist for early contractor
input into E&M design. However given the current advanced status of the design for
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the Luas Broombridge project, opportunities to realise cost savings from contractor
innovations are considerably reduced.
Under this model, risks are apportioned to those best placed to manage them. While
certain risks are apportioned at contract award stage, some risks are
assigned
during the contract period in a non-competitive environment, which could expose RPA
to significant commercial risks as the project timescales become critical. Furthermore,
for reasons previously explained under Option B and C above, it is likely that RPA will
need to be involved in managing critical external design interface risks.
Option D provides RPA with a good level of control and a high degree of flexibility
while retaining the benefit of private sector project management efficiencies.
However, given the constraints on construction programming which will be imposed
by external factors such as DCC’s traffic management requirements and the
interfaces with existing utility companies, there will be few opportunities to derive any
significant benefit in this area.
Considerable monitoring is required on procurements of this nature and RPA would
have to recruit additional resources to manage this effectively.
9.8
Conclusions
RPA has carried out a test concluding that a PPP-type procurement for Luas
Broombridge is not suitable.
RPA then proceeded to assess four different procurement options, A to D.
Option A, the turnkey design and build approach, fails to adequately meet the majority
of the procurement objectives and is not considered a suitable procurement option for
Luas Broombridge.
Option B has been used successfully in the past by RPA (on Line B1) with client
design of enabling works and contractor design and build for the main infrastructure
and systems elements. However it is noted that Line B1 was constructed in a
suburban setting, rather than a city centre environment where significantly greater and
more complex interface issues exist. Option B is an attractive option as the
procurement of a design and build contract for the light rail infrastructure works
transfers the external design interface risks to the contractor. Given that Luas
Broombridge is, to a large extent, a city-centre project, there are significant risks
associated with transferring such a degree of control over detailed design,
programming / sequencing of the works and third party liaison to a design/build
contractor which would have the potential to give rise to serious programme and
quality concerns for RPA. In order to overcome the quality and programme risks
associated with the design/build approach, RPA would need to develop reference
designs to a sufficient level of detail to ensure the requisite standard of quality for the
works is achieved. It is also noted that the development of detailed reference designs
should also shorten the contractor’s design period.
Option C is similar to Option B except that RPA would retain responsibility for the
design of the light rail infrastructure and structures. This option is based on the
procurement strategy successfully implemented for Line C1. It was noted that by
retaining responsibility for the detailed design of all of the works, with the exception of
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the systems package, this option sees RPA retaining more risk than any of the other
options. While this could expose RPA to cost and time claims from contractors it
provides the advantage of retaining a greater degree of control over the quality of the
finished product and also provides a great deal of flexibility in managing the detailed
design issues with local authority and third party interfaces that will inevitably arise.
Option C is also the option which requires the largest resource input from RPA for
both the design and construction phases, but this has been managed effectively in the
past through the use of a mix of internal resources and external project management
support services procured specifically for the scheme.
The Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) approach, as detailed in Option D, would
perform well in terms of optimising risk transfer. Under this approach the earlier the
contractor is procured the greater the commercial benefits that can be realised.
However, given the advanced status of the Luas Broombridge design it is unlikely that
significant cost savings could be made by procuring the packages using ECI.
Furthermore, this approach has not been used previously by RPA for procuring works
and therefore there are increased process risks associated with Option D.
Having assessed all of the above options, it is considered that Option B is the most
attractive procurement option and best meets the objectives for the procurement of
Luas Broombridge. This represents a change in procurement approach to that which
was included In the Outline Business case wherein it was concluded that the light rail
infrastructure works should be procured using a client design form of contract. This
change came about through a process of internal risk reviews, further project
definition and consultation with external stakeholders, DCC and CIE in particular. RPA
will develop very detailed reference designs which will be reviewed by DCC / CIE for
approval in advance of contract award. While it is acknowledged that there may be
additional design costs associated with this approach the benefits of transferring
design risk to a contractor for the construction stage are seen to out-weigh these
costs.
Thus it is considered that Option B represents the optimum procurement strategy for
Luas Broombridge.
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10
PROGRAMME AND WAY FORWARD
10.1
Chapter Summary
This chapter looks at the activities following submission of the Updated Detailed
Business Case;
Timely approval of the Updated Detailed Business Case and timely
implementation of the activities described are essential for the project to remain
on target for completion at the end of 2017. The nature and extent of the 1916
centenary celebrations will be key constraints on the delivery of the project
programme;
The design and procurement process and the finalisation of the funding
arrangements are core activities to be progressed prior to construction
commencement in 2013;
A Railway Order application was subm
granted a Railway Order for the project on 2 August 2012;
An effective and integrated communications plan will be implemented by RPA
which will aim to build confidence in RPA’s ability to deliver the project while
managing the potential negative effects of the works.
10.2
Activities
The key RPA tasks following granting of Railway Order and approval of the detailed
Business Case update are as follows:
10.2.1 Procurement
RPA will commence the procurement process for the enabling works, utility works,
and the civil & track works following a call for competition in the Official Journal of the
European Union (OJEU Notice). An OJEU Notice has already been issued for the
Heritage works and for the Utility Diversion works contracts. This will be followed by
pre-qualification of suitable bidders and a formal tender process. Contracts for
heritage works, the re-lining of sewers, filling of cellars, and utility diversions are all
scheduled to be awarded by mid-2013 allowing construction to commence on a
phased basis at that time.
10.2.2 Design
There is little in the way of substantive change or amendment required to the scope of
the proposed scheme as a consequence of the Railway Order granted on 2 August
2012 and the conditions attached thereto. The principal amendment has arisen from
the decision of the Bord to condition the removal of the northbound stop platform on
Dawson Street.
Prior to issuing any tender documents the detailed design will be completed for the
scope of works identified for each contract. This design work will also help RPA to
identify the interface requirements with other developments and with the relevant
authorities in advance of construction. Substantial elements of the city centre detailed
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design will be carried out in-house. Further details are to be found in Chapter 9 of this
updated Detailed Business Case.
10.2.3 Construction
The sequence of construction of Luas Broombridge will largely be dictated by the
need to minimise impacts on traffic flow and access to the city during the construction
period with an emphasis on public transport priority and servicing needs of
commercial premises. The works will require to be undertaken in such a manner that
will avoid conflicting with the occurrence of 1916 centenary commemoration events in
O’Connell Street and its environs. Further definition will be applied to this sequencing
once the events, their timing and durations become known and contractors appointed
to the works develop the detailed traffic management plans.
10.2.4 Funding
The funding arrangements required to implement the project will be agreed with NTA
prior to the commencement of construction. These will require ongoing review to take
account of tender experience and overall progress with the construction contracts.
10.2.5 Communications
An effective and integrated communications plan will be implemented by RPA which
will aim to build confidence in the delivery of the project, reduce the potential negative
effect of the works and underscore the benefits of Luas Broombridge. The strategy
will build upon RPA’s extensive communications efforts made to-date and will cover
the period of construction from enabling works to commissioning.
The key messages of the communications plan will focus on RPA delivering a new
transport option for Dublin and keeping the city centre open for business during the
period of construction.
10.3
Programme
The key programme dates are set out in Table10-1 below. The dates set out in the
this table are dependent on a number of factors including:
Timely approval of this Updated Detailed Business Case (UDBC); and
Provision of necessary funding in line with the implementation programme.
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Table 10-1 Key Dates for Luas Broombridge Programme
NTA Approve Detailed Business Case
Start
Finish
Oct-12
Nov-12
Sewer Re-Lining - Award
Sewer Re-Lining - Construction
Apr-13
Apr-13
Heritage Works- Award
Heritage Works - Implementation
May-13
May-13
Cellars - Award
Cellars - Construction
May-13
Apr-14
Jun-13
Jul-13
Main Infrastructure - Award
Main Infrastructure - Construction
Feb-17
May-13
Utility Diversions - Award
Utility Diversions - Construction
Sep-14
Oct-15
Nov-14
Jan-15
Power & Systems - Award
Dec-16
Apr-16
Power & Systems - Installation
Apr-16
Mar-17
Trial Running
Jun-17
Oct-17
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2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
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APPENDICES
Appendix 1:
Route Options and MCA
Appendix 2:
CBA Parameters
Appendix 3:
Luas Broombridge – Design, Procurement & Construction Programme
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St. Stephen’s Green to Red Line Route Options
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Revised Option A and Option F
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City Centre / Red Line to Broadstone Route Options
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PRIMARY CRITERIA
Economy Costs/Funding
Environment
Measure
Updated Detailed Business Case
Dominick
Street /
Cathal
Brugha
Street
Parnell Square
West / Cathal
Brugha Street
Dominick
Street /
Parnell
Street
Parnell
Square West /
Parnell Street
Comments on Assessment
Capital Costs
3
3
3
Expected Patronage
3
3
3
O&M costs
3
3
3
Journey Time
3
3
3
Developer Funding
Opportunities
Average Score
Ecology
Water Quality
Soils and Geology
Landscape and Visual
Archaelogy
2
2
2
2.8
3
3
3
5
2
2.8
3
3
3
5
1
2.8
3
3
3
5
2
Architectural Heritage
2
1
2
3
2
2.875
5
3
2
2.625
5
3
2
2.875
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
Similar across all options
Similar across all options
Similar across all options
All options present opportunities for streetscape improvement in similar terms
Dominic St was preferable to the Parnell Square West options as this Parnell Square West
route impacts on two Recorded Monuments
1 Parnell Square West Options were also considered less preferable from an architectural
heritage perspective as this route impacts on a greater number of protected structures
including their coal holes and cellars
3 The number of car trips reduced would be simialr across the options from the model results.
2 All routes similar in repsect of interactions with road junctions
2.625
5 Very High in the City Centre, there fore mark of 5 given for each. No difference between each
route option due to analysis based on zones
3 Score of 3 given as the catchemnt is true medium density areas given for each.
3 No difference between each route option due to analysis based on zones
3
3
3
3 Both the Dominick Street and Parnell Square West options run through the same RAPID Area.
3.5
3
3.5
3
3.5
4
4
4
4
Air Quality
Traffic Impacts
Average Score
Accessibility & Social Employment Catchments
Inclusion
Residential Catchments
Access to transport
system for vunerable
groups
Deprived Geographic
areas
Average Score
Integration
Integration with overall
network
Bus
Rail
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3 The route options are similar in lengths and hence this measure is ignored for the purposes of
evaluating options.
3 Demand modelling reveals no difference in results across the options. A neutral score is
assigend for all options.
3 Similar to other costs, the O&M costs for all the options would be the same due to the same
number of vehicles required, similar demand, similar track geometry and similar run times.
3 Journey time differences are in the order of seconds between the different routes therefore no
difference in scores.
2 There are no funding opportunities via development levies along the on-street sections.
2.8
3
3
3
5
1
3.5
4 Those options with a routing via Parnell Square West will score higher as a stop on Parnell
Street would offer significant advantages due to close proximity of interchange with buses on
Parnell Square East.
4 As all options will provide interchange with Maynooth Railway line services at Broombridge,
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PRIMARY CRITERIA
Measure
Dominick
Street /
Cathal
Brugha
Street
Parnell Square
West / Cathal
Brugha Street
Dominick
Street /
Parnell
Street
Parnell
Square West /
Parnell Street
Metro
2
2
4
Shopping Centres
5
5
4
Hospital
3
4
3
Others
2
4
2
Operations
2
2
4
Transport and Land Use
Policies
Impact on Buses
4
4
4
4
2
2
Government Policy
Other (non-transport, nonland use) Government
policy
Average Score
Constructability/Engi
Construction Safety
neering
5
4
5
4
5
4
3.5
3
3.6
2
3.6
4
3
2
3
Impact on highway
network
Comments on Assessment
they will all score the same
4 Those options that route via Parnell Street would benefit from better interchange with future
Metro North stop on Parnell Square East arising out of a Line D stop location on Parnell Street.
Other options do not provide good interchange with Metro North.
4 Route options on Dominick Street and Parnell Square West that also use Cathal Brugha Street
serve both Carlton and ILAC better than a route option via Parnell Street
4 Route options that use Parnell Square West better serve the Rotunda Hospital than those that
do no.
4 Route options on Parnell Square West better serve the Museums and other places of interest
on Parnell Square North (Museums, Garden of Remembrance), Parnell Square West
(Comhaltas Ceoltoiri etc) and on Granby Row (Wax Museum).
4 Options that route via O'Connell Street and Cathal Brugha Street require more in the way of
curved track. Two additional 25m radii are required as against a single 25m radius on the turn
from Parnell Street to Marlborough Street.
4 Simialr across all options, no discernible difference.
2 A route option via Dominick Street / Cathal Brugha Street does not require any change or loss
of bus lanes or stops.
5 All options comply with Government Policy as Line D is included within Transport 21
4 All options will result contirbuite to the development of a more sustainable city centre
environment.
3.9
3 Construction of route options that entail O'Connell Street / Cathal Brugha Street (buses,
vehicles, pedestrians) and Parnell Square West (buses, vehicles, pedestrians) will entail
greater interaction with road vehicles and pedestrians than other route otpions.
2 In the case of Dominick Street / Cathal Brugha Street, this will include Parnell Street and
O'Connell Street. Dominick Street is not considered a strategic route.
For Dominick Street / Parnell Street, this will include Parnell Street east and west. Dominck
Street and Marlborough Street are not considered strategic routes.
For Parnell Sq. West and Cathal Brugha Street there are three strategic routes - Parnell
Square West, Parnell Street and O'Connell Street
For Parnell Sq. West / parnell Street, stratgeic routes affected woudl be Parnell Sq. West,
Parnell Street east and Parnell Street west
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PRIMARY CRITERIA
Measure
Dominick
Street /
Cathal
Brugha
Street
Parnell Square
West / Cathal
Brugha Street
Dominick
Street /
Parnell
Street
Parnell
Square West /
Parnell Street
Utilities interface
4
2
4
Geotechnical
Maintainability
Average Score
3
3
2.6
3
3
2
3
5
3.16
Commercial Impact
(Office/Retail)
Parking / Traffic
Management
Public Consultation
Support
Objections
3
3
3
2
1
2
4
4
4
2
4
2
DCC Support
Average Score
Number of road traffic
junctions
Average Score
2
2.6
4
2
2.8
4
4
3
4
4
4
4
4
21.94
21.33
22.94
22.13
3.13
3.05
3.28
3.16
Other
Safety
Updated Detailed Business Case
Totals
Averaged Totals
Scoring
MCA of City Centre / Red Line to Broadstone Route Options
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Comments on Assessment
2 Route options that utilise Dominick Street have much less in the way of impacts on utilities
than options centreing on Parnell Square West. Cathal Brugha Street and Parnell Street are
similar in respect of impacts on utilities.
3 similar across all options
5 Increased curvature on track associated with Cathal Brugha Street options.
2.5
3 No discernible differences between the options. Options on Dominick Street potential to offer
advantages to redevelopment proposals.
1 Options via Parnell Square West would impact adversely on road capacity and kerbside
facilities on that strategic route.
4 Based on submissions to the consultation process, there was public supported for all route
options
4 Based on consultation process, there was objections to the Dominick Street option from
residents on Dominick Street
2 DCC support for Dominick Street and Parnell Street routing.
2.8
4 Similar across all options.
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Appendix 2
CBA Parameters
Discount Rate
4.00%
Appraisal Period
30
Price Base
2002
Evaluation Base
2002
Opening Year
2018
Economic Growth
Real GNP Growth %
pa
2000 to 2002
6.23%
2002 to 2010
2.70%
2011 to 2015
2.37%
2016+
2.29%
10.3.1.1 Value of Time Market Price (€ per person per hour)
Work or Business
Values of Time
€26.50
Non Work values of time
Commuting Time
€8.10
Non Commuting Time
€7.30
Car Occupancy
2006
Am Peak
1.2
Inter Peak
1.4
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2030
Am Peak
1.2
Inter Peak
1.4
Accident Costs
Accident Rate (per m veh km)
0.054
Average cost per accident (2002) € 179,343
Vehicle Operating Costs
Fuel Consumption Parameters
Resource cost of fuel
€ 0.33
Duty
€ 0.39
VAT
€ 0.15
L = a + bv + cv^2
a
0.1587516
b
-0.0026590
c
0.0000181
Non Fuel Costs
C=a1 +(b1/V)
a1 work
6.18
b1work
31.58
a1 non work
6.18
b1non work
31.58
Operational Build Up
Years from opening
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2018
100%
2019
100%
2020
100%
2021
100%
2022
100%
2023
100%
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Demand Build Up
Years from opening
2018
80%
2019
85%
2020
90%
2021
100%
2022
100%
2023
100%
Annualisation
Public Transport
Peak Hour 1
Peak Hour 2
Peak Hour 3
476
Off Peak
2850
Air Quality (Urban) € (2002) per vehicle km
Values taken from Treatment of Transport Emissions in
the CAF – September, 2009
10-1 CBA Parameters
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Appendix 3
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Updated Detailed Business Case
1
Activity ID
Activity Name
Original Start
Duration
Line BXD - St. Stephen's Green - Broombridge
The NTA Gate
Ga Process
NTA Gate Process
Proc
Detailed Business
Bu
Case
Detailed Business
Busin
Case
Approval of Detailed Business Case
BXDFBC0025 Submit Detailed Business Case to NTA
BXDFBC0030 NTA review and approve Detailed Business Case
Finish
2249 04-Apr-11 A
29-Nov-19
1783 28-Sep-12
29-Nov-19
1783 28-Sep-12
29-Nov-19
21 05-Oct-12
06-Nov-12
21 05-Oct-12
06-Nov-12
21 05-Oct-12
06-Nov-12
1 05-Oct-12*
20 08-Oct-12
1066 01-Nov-12
08-Oct-12
06-Nov-12
16-Dec-16
659 11-Sep-14
30-Mar-17
1059 04-Apr-11 A
05-May-15
Ministerial Consent
Co
for Heritage Works
BXD_104 Sewer
Sew Re-Lining
346 30-Nov-12
04-Apr-14
300 24-Feb-12 A
23-Apr-13
BXD_170 Condition
Cond
Survey
BXD_102 Heritage
Herit
Works
BXD_100 BXD Investigation & Treatment of Cellars
BXD _101 Utility
Utili Diversions Documentation and Procurement
262 01-Oct-12
03-Oct-13
205 09-Aug-12 A
24-May-13
450 05-Sep-11 A
29-May-13
579 04-Apr-11 A
25-Jun-13
BXD_410 Stop Furniture Supply
BXD_400 Main Infrastructure Civil & Track Works
BXD_500 Rolling
Roll
Stock Procurement, Manufacture, Delivery
BXD_450 Systems
Syst
& Power
335 20-Jun-12 A
04-Oct-13
906 01-Jun-11 A
27-Nov-14
271 07-Jan-13
23-Jan-14
240 30-May-14
05-May-15
1159 23-Apr-13
12-Oct-17
BXD_104 Sewer
Sew Re-Lining
BXD_102 Heritage
Herit
Works
360 23-Apr-13
11-Sep-14
927 31-May-13
24-Feb-17
BXD_100 BXD Investigation & Treatment of Cellars
BXD_101 Utility
Utilit Diversions
BXD_410 Stop Furniture Supply
BXD_400 Main Infrastructure Civil & Track Works
238 29-May-13
30-Apr-14
578 30-Jul-13
23-Oct-15
883 04-Oct-13
06-Mar-17
496 02-Jan-15
01-Dec-16
BXD_500 Rolling
Roll
Stock Procurement, Manufacture, Delivery
BXD_450 Systems
Syst
& Power
Testing & Commissioning
Com
and Trial Running
812 05-May-14
21-Jun-17
532 06-May-15
23-May-17
290 16-Aug-16
12-Oct-17
Property Procurement
Pro
Railway Safety
Saf
Commission Approvals
Design, Documentation
Doc
and Procurement
Construction Implementation
Constructio
2012
A JA
LUAS Broombridge
Summary Design,Procurement &
Construction
Programme
2013
A
A
Date
31-Aug-12
2014
A J A
2015
A
A
2016
J
A
A
2017
A JA
Version No. BXD _001_91
Revision
Version No. BXD PG_001_91
2018
J
A
A
Checked
JVC
2019
A J
Approved