Where does forensic science fit in an intelligence collec2on plan? Max M. Houck, Ph.D Director, D.C. Department of Forensic Sciences Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences A view of forensic science •  Science of revealing associa2ons between people, places, and things involved in criminal ac2vity –  Events in ques2on are in the past –  Evidence is the remnants, the proxy data, the informa2onal “leLovers” of the event –  “Short-­‐term archaeology” •  Two processes: –  Classifica2on (What is it?) –  Sourcing (Where did it come from?) •  Interpreta2on (What does it mean?) Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences Evidence is proxy data •  The kind, sequence, and magnitude of the events must be reconstructed from the physical remnants of past criminal events. –  Traces, fossils, ar2facts, symptoms, clues, evidence –  A more descrip2ve and encompassing term, used in paleoclimatology, is “proxy data”. Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences Proxy data all contain a signal, a meaning, a forensic significance on two levels. First, the meaning of the material in its original context: A knife, a rock, a carpet. “intrinsic in the fabric of an object itself…established by the rarity of the materials used.” At this first level of meaning, forensic science typically deals in class level evidence and leads to a sourcing of the material at some level of resolu2on. The second level of meaning is an added layer which the criminal ac2vity has contributed to the item: The knife used to stab the vic2m, the rock used to break the store window, the carpet where the sexual assault took place. This level of meaning is “more transient or variable” as well as interpre2ve Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences Looking for “traces”, looking for evidence •  Ginzburg suggests it is Brown Grizzly Bear tracks on the mud flats at low 2de. (Ursus arctos), Katmai Na2onal Park, Alaska, USA. –  “may be the oldest act in the intellectual history of the human race: the hunter squaXng on the ground, studying the tracks of his quarry” •  Locard noted the an2quity of a forensic mindset: –  “Searching for traces is not, as much as one could believe it, an innova2on of modern criminal jurists. It is an occupa2on probably as old as humanity” Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences The concept of traces is first found in Zadig ou la Des-nee (Zadig, or the The Book of Fate), Voltaire, 1747 • 
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An i2nerant wanderer and observer of nature, Zadig comes across members of a King’s household who approach him in a panic. Zadig says that they must be searching for a dog and a horse, both of which Zadig describes perfectly although he claims never to have seen either. He details the method of his seemingly supernatural knowledge: –  [the tracks] were those of a small dog. Long, shallow grooves drawn across 2ny heaps of sand between the paw-­‐marks told me that it was a bitch whose teats were hanging down, which meant that she had whelped a few days previously. Other traces going in a different direc2on, and apparently made by something brushing constantly over the surface of the sand beside the front paws, told me that she had very long ears. And as I no2ced that the sand was always less indented by one paw than by the other three, I realized that the bitch [had] a slight limp ([69], pages 132-­‐133). Zadig goes on to describe the King’s missing horse in a similar manner. The retainers decide that Zadig himself must have stolen the animals and take him to the King, with further adventures ensuing. The character of Voltaire’s novel stands as the conceptual predecessor of nearly every detec2ve and forensic scien2st, fic2onal or real. Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences Forensic detec2on, like archaeology and other historical inves2ga2ons, is by defini2on illumina2ng, an uncanny act which reveals that which should have remained invisible thereby making the absent present = = Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences Georges Cuvier (1769-­‐1832): Principle of Correla2on of Parts “This asser2on will not seem at all astonishing if one recalls that in the living state all the bones are assembled in a kind of framework; that the place occupied by each is easy to recognize; and that by the number and posi2on of their ar2cula2ng facets one can judge the number and direc2on of the bones that were anached to them. This is because the number, direc2on, and shape of the bones that compose each part of an animal’s body are always in a necessary rela2on to all the other parts, in such a way that-­‐-­‐up to a point-­‐-­‐one can infer the whole from any one of them, and vice versa.” (emphasis added) Pelycosaur fossil found in Texas Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences Evidence is… •  Incomplete –  We have to make chicken salad out of chicken crap •  Non-­‐predic2ve –  We can’t select our evidence a priori; we need to make the best of the hand we’re dealt. •  Variable in quality and quan2ty –  This makes crea2ng an intelligence plan difficult, at best. Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences Intelligence plan •  Requirements •  Assets, resource, and deterrents –  Sources, contacts; value and extent –  Risk mi2ga2on of deterrents •  Priori2es •  Taskings •  Evalua2on and updates Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences Intelligence Collec2on Management •  Collec2on disciplines –  HUMINT –  IMINT –  SIGINT –  MASINT –  OSINT Where does “forensic” fit in? Or does it? •  Based on the requirements, various data will need to be dynamically assessed and validated Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences Value of forensic science to intelligence •  Arrives to IA pre-­‐processed (not raw signal) •  Evalua2ng sources –  Proximity –  Appropriateness •  Evalua2ng the informa2on –  Plausibility –  “Expectability” (differs from predictability) •  Challenges to cogni2ve bias (data) –  but has some of its own •  Analysis of compe2ng hypotheses –  Confirmatory Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences “Forensic intelligence feedback” Intelligence Event Forensic Time Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences [email protected] Washington DC Department of Forensic Sciences Forensic Science Laboratory | Public Health Laboratory | Crime Scene Sciences