From ADAS to Automated Driving
Matthew Avery – Director of Research
The Story So Far: Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
ESC is an established life saver
•
ESC equipped vehicles are 25% less likely to be involved
in a serious or fatal crash in the UK
Other ADAS systems show
potential…
AEB: Should It Be Mandatory…?
•
Euro NCAP see a 38%
overall reduction in realworld, rear-end crashes for
vehicles fitted with low
speed AEB compared to a
sample of equivalent
vehicles with no AEB
•
Thatcham Research – now a
world leading reference in
AEB and ADAS system
functionality and
effectiveness
AEB Fitment Today
All new cars on sale in…
2015
Forecast: New cars launched in…
2015
2016
2016
21%
Not Available
Optional
52%
41%
49%
Standard
Optional
Standard
27%
10%
Last updated: May 2016
Not Available
AEB Testing & Insurer Effect
Low
Speed
Testing
Claims Data
*
XC60
Golf
High
Speed
*
XC60
Golf
*All Crashes
Frontal Impacts With Pedestrians
•
•
UK DfT reports 398 pedestrian fatalities in 2013
13% of all road casualties
Test scenarios based on top 3 UK pedestrian collisions
CP1
Unobscured nearside
walking adult
CP2
Obscured running nearside
child
CP3
Unobscured farside adult
Testing to be introduced into Euro NCAP 2016
Frontal Impacts With Cyclists
•
•
•
UK DfT reports long term fall in cyclist deaths, fluctuating 100-120 in last 6 years
109 cyclist deaths in 2013; 11% of all road casualties
Pedal cycle traffic increasing: 13% higher than 2005-9 average
crashes
9%
29%
22%
deaths
45%
22%
2%
Thatcham developing testing for Euro NCAP; to be
introduced into Euro NCAP 2018
Vehicle Evolution – Parking Collisions
• In the UK, 23% (725 out of 3,107 cases) of claims related to parking collisions
• 71% of parking collisions (516 out of 725 cases) occurred during reversing
Reversing & Parking
Car to car rear
Single vehicle
Junction
3%2%
4%
9%
18%
Reversing
12%
16%
23%
Head on
Lane change
VRU
Other
75%
17%
22%
Moving
forward
Not clear
Vehicle Evolution – Automated Steering
•
•
•
•
LDW/LKA systems widespread in the market
20% of KSI relate to single vehicle crashes
Sophisticated Lane Guidance Systems now available
Run off road and across lane capabilities
Reversing & Parking
Car to car rear
2%
4% 3%
18%
Single vehicle
12%
Junction
23%
Head on
Lane change
VRU
Other
17%
22%
Insurance claims
Defining the Technological Route to Automated Driving
Sensor Development
Current: Low & High Speed (City & Inter-Urban) AEB
2018 Sensor Capabilities (Assisted Driving)
Not to scale
Not to scale
10m
Current: Low Speed (City) AEB
150m
Current: Low & High Speed (City & Inter-Urban) AEB
250m
2018 Sensor Capabilities (Assisted Driving)
To scale
ADAS Building Blocks
Thatcham Influence on Testing Procedures – towards Automated Driving
Autonomous
Driving
Automated Driving
(Destination)
Automated Driving (Trained)
Automated
Highway Driving
AEB - City
ACC / Queue Assist
Anti-Lock
Brakes
Stability
Control

Automated City
Driving


AEB - Urban

Lane Keeping
Electric
Power
Steering
Blind Spot
Monitoring
Autonomous
Emergency
Steering (AES)
Automated Valet
Parking
Overtaking
Assist
Lane Centering
Pedestrian
Detection

V2X
AEB –
Pedestrian/Cyclist
Intersection
Assist

Auto Parallel
Parking
Parking
Aid

Rear-Collision
Mitigation
Navigation
Traffic Sign
Recognition
Lane
Departure
Warning

Forward
Collision
Warning

GPS
The Autonomous Car Timeline
International Categorisation of Autonomy – open to interpretation
2016
Driver attention
0
1
2
3
4
5
No Automation
Assisted
Partial
Automation
Conditional
Automation
High
Automation
Full
Automation
0: LDW, ESC
(System functionality improvements)
1:ACC, LKA, BLIS, AEB
2: Queue Assist, Parking Assistance ……
3: (2018 on) Highway Pilot?
4: (2021 on) Automated Driving
5: (2025) Robot Taxi
Feet Off
Driver monitors driving environment
Hands Off
Eyes Off
Brain Off?
Driver monitored System monitors driving environment
ECE R79 Steering – ACSF 2018 on
Driver “check in” every
3 minutes?
Using Wheel or
Infotainment System
Level 2+?
Example: Drive Pilot up to 130km/h = 36m/s
Radar has 200m range, 100m used on target verification
Leaves approx. 3 seconds to bring driver back into loop; 10 seconds required
Level 3 poses increased risk of crashes?
AEB On Other Vehicles?
HGV
Vans
Optional,
11.2%
Standard,
0.5%
Current 2016: Top 30 LCV AEB Functionality
Not
available,
88.3%
EU Regulation No. 347/2012
Currently no AEB requirement
AEBS – HGV AEB Regulation (EC 347/2012)
Stage 1 (2013-15)
Stage 2 (2016-18)
STATIC: Requires a ≥6mph reduction of speed when
driving into a stationary target at 50 mph
STATIC: Requires a 12 mph reduction of speed when
driving into a stationary target at 50 mph
50 mph
(-6 mph)
0 mph
MOVING: Requires a 30mph reduction of speed when
driving into a moving target moving at 20 mph
50 mph
(-30 mph)
20 mph
Applicable to: New HGV designs from November 2013
All HGVs in scope by November 2015
50 mph
(-12 mph)
0 mph
MOVING: Requires a 42.5 mph reduction of speed
when driving into a target moving at 7.5 mph
50 mph
(-42.5 mph)
7.5 mph
Applicable to: New HGV designs from November 2016,
All HGV by November 2018
All Tests Pass/Fail including False Positive Test; Target NOT defined
Moving target
Stationary Target
Scenario
Actual Performance of Vehicles
Relative
speed
(km/h)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
78
Requirement (for max points or pass as
applicable)
IGR
ENCAP
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Reg
2015
-10
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Reg
2018
-20
Avoid
Avoid
Achievement of best
vehicle tested to-date
Car
HGV
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Not Tested
Not Tested
Not Tested
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Not Tested
Not Tested
Not Tested
0
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
-80
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Avoid
Volvo truck outperforms the best car….?
Truck Platooning
SARTRE project – 4m gap between vehicles
•
•
•
•
•
Frees up driver time
Safety
Environmental impact reductions
Fuel economy
Improved traffic flow
Future Priorities – Turn Across Path
TAP
•
•
Euro NCAP implementation
from 2020 for cars
Additional usage of forward
looking sensors
•
TAP consideration for
Trucks?
•
Would require additional
sensors on the side
•
Can Intermediate
Technologies be brought
forward? Economic Incentive?
•
Equivalent exemptions would
seriously undermine benefits
Automated Driving - Mercedes
Truck Freight set to triple by 2050
•
2025 “Freightliner Inspiration Truck”
•
•
Advantages:
•
•
•
•
Highway Pilot system
EEG brain study revealed that driver drowsiness
decreased by 25% when in automated mode
Drivers engaged in other tasks
High acceptance
Economics:
•
•
Driver is significant cost in haulage; restricted
by tacograph times
Less time responsible for driving = greater
control on costs
The Autonomous Car
Levels of Autonomy – When will it happen?
0
No
1
3
4
5
Conditional
Automation
High
Automation
Full
Automation
2
Partial
Assisted
Automation Automation
Fleet %:
Assisted Driving
New Car Sales %:
Partial Autonomy
New Car Sales %:
Assisted Driving
2018
New Car Sales %:
High Autonomy
Fleet %:
Partial Autonomy
New Car Sales %:
Full Autonomy
Fleet %:
High Autonomy
Fleet %:
Full Autonomy
From ADAS to Automated Driving